What fiction imagined, and when it may arrive

When each idea was imagined

Each bar counts the ideas first imagined in that decade; the darker part is how many have since been built. It measures what the glossary records, which leans on the pulp magazine and paperback boom and may favour ideas that later came true, not how imaginative each decade was; ideas from recent decades have also had less time to be built.

1. before 185019 · 6 built
2. 1850s0
3. 1860s18 · 8 built
4. 1870s11 · 3 built
5. 1880s16 · 10 built
6. 1890s77 · 34 built
7. 1900s24 · 6 built
8. 1910s41 · 19 built
9. 1920s146 · 40 built
10. 1930s674 · 166 built
11. 1940s387 · 70 built
12. 1950s609 · 155 built
13. 1960s567 · 150 built
14. 1970s322 · 52 built
15. 1980s303 · 57 built
16. 1990s268 · 48 built
17. 2000s198 · 17 built
18. 2010s51 · 4 built
19. 2020s15 · 1 built

When they may arrive

For the ideas not yet built, the upper bar is the decade AI models judged a working, commercial version most likely. The lower bar counts dated forecasts made in the books and essays of the singularity reading list, set at the decade their author gave (for a range, its first year). The two are different kinds of claim and are never added together.

1. 1980s, passed0 judged · 1 stated
2. 2000s, passed0 judged · 7 stated
3. 2010s, passed0 judged · 18 stated
4. 2020s912 judged · 81 stated
5. 2030s437 judged · 35 stated
6. 2040s251 judged · 11 stated
7. 2050s151 judged · 5 stated
8. 2060s116 judged · 3 stated
9. 2070s81 judged · 3 stated
10. 2080s21 judged · 1 stated
11. 2090s0 judged · 2 stated
12. 2100 or later180 judged · 4 stated
13. cannot judge240 judged · 0 stated
14. not physically possible391 judged · 0 stated

Upper bar: ideas, judged by AI models. Lower bar: forecasts stated by their authors.

Kinds of technology, and who would profit

Each idea was sorted into one kind of technology and judged by a model as if it worked the way its story promises: how large a prize it would be, who would pay for it, and which seller would keep what is left once buyers have had their gain. A vast prize changes how most people live or work, a large one changes a whole industry, a small one serves a narrow need, and no prize means nothing would be sold. How the profit is judged

Space travel and habitats593 ideas · 128 builtPrize, as a model judges it: vast 18 · large 175 · small 317 · no prize 83Computing, AI and virtual worlds322 ideas · 111 builtPrize, as a model judges it: vast 43 · large 124 · small 135 · no prize 20Communication, media and displays337 ideas · 161 builtPrize, as a model judges it: vast 23 · large 144 · small 162 · no prize 8Robotics and automation307 ideas · 74 builtPrize, as a model judges it: vast 25 · large 106 · small 168 · no prize 8Medicine, biotech and longevity264 ideas · 53 builtPrize, as a model judges it: vast 21 · large 114 · small 106 · no prize 23Mind and neurotechnology200 ideas · 2 builtPrize, as a model judges it: vast 20 · large 83 · small 63 · no prize 34Transport and mobility272 ideas · 83 builtPrize, as a model judges it: vast 20 · large 104 · small 142 · no prize 6Energy and power65 ideas · 15 builtPrize, as a model judges it: vast 3 · large 43 · small 18 · no prize 1Materials, manufacturing and construction197 ideas · 22 builtPrize, as a model judges it: vast 11 · large 92 · small 87 · no prize 7Weapons and warfare303 ideas · 42 builtPrize, as a model judges it: large 115 · small 161 · no prize 27Surveillance, identity and control177 ideas · 52 builtPrize, as a model judges it: large 88 · small 86 · no prize 3Food, agriculture and environment113 ideas · 29 builtPrize, as a model judges it: vast 16 · large 45 · small 41 · no prize 11Home and everyday life237 ideas · 54 builtPrize, as a model judges it: vast 3 · large 36 · small 197 · no prize 1Exotic physics219 ideas · 3 builtPrize, as a model judges it: vast 6 · large 136 · small 49 · no prize 28Society and economy135 ideas · 17 builtPrize, as a model judges it: large 21 · small 41 · no prize 73

A gallery

A few of the ideas the site's owner picked out of the idea bank for a closer look, in the order they were first imagined; each picture shows the idea as if it already existed. Every illustrated idea appears with its picture on the pages for its kind of technology.