Dated forecasts about this kind of technology from the singularity reading list, then every idea of this kind in the order stories first imagined it.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Imagined, oldest first
How large a prize, and which seller keeps the rest
Each idea is judged as if it worked the way its story promises: how large a prize it would be, who would pay, and which seller would keep what is left once buyers have had their gain. Choose a cell to see only those ideas; each count is the cards that cell shows. Every placing is a model's judgement, not a reading.
Seller
A vast prize
A large prize
A small prize
No prize
No seller keeps much
·
The maker keeps the rest
·
Existing firms keep the rest
·
Permit holders keep the rest
·
·
·
·
Nothing is sold
·
·
·
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Compact Food Pastilles
The Senator's Daughter, Edward Page Mitchell · 1879
A single tiny tablet holding enough nourishment to feed a person for weeks.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Judged as if it worked, one tablet that feeds a person for weeks would be an industry of its own and would change how armies, travellers and the hungry are fed, though I assumed most people would still eat ordinary meals for pleasure.
Who is paid. Households buy it, and I assumed the recipe can be copied once it is known, so the food and pharmacy brands with shop space collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Chemical Production of Food
Mizora: A Prophecy, Mary E. Bradley Lane · 1881
Making edible nutrients through chemistry and fermentation instead of growing crops.
built in the 2000s, about 120 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Food made without fields would free the feeding of people from land and weather, which touches nearly everyone.
Who is paid. Households buy it as ordinary groceries, and since the method can be copied, the food makers who already own plants, brands and shop space collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Aeriduct (Rain Maker)
A Journey In Other Worlds, John Jacob Astor IV · 1894
A method for making clouds release precipitation on demand.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Rain on demand would be worth a great deal to farming and water supply in dry regions, though it only brings down water that is already in the sky.
Who is paid. Rain falls on everyone below, so I assumed governments pay, and spraying clouds is simple enough that many operators could do it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Life-Brew
In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897
An alcohol-free drink crafted to taste and feel like wine.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. This is a small convenience or novelty in what people drink.
Who is paid. Households buy it, and since the recipe is easy to copy the drink brands that already own shelf space collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Red Weed (Terraforming Plant)
The War of the Worlds, H.G. Wells · 1898
A foreign plant species that spreads rapidly and remakes the landscape it invades.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A plant that overruns and remakes every landscape it reaches is a hazard, and it is banned.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller gains.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Electrical Farming Implements
Looking Forward: A Dream of the United States of the Americas in 1999, Arthur Bird · 1899
Powered machinery that takes over the heavy labour of farming.
built in the 1900s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Machines taking over the heavy work of farming freed most people from the land, which changed how most people work.
Who is paid. Farmers buy the machines, and they are easy to copy, so the makers with factories, dealers and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Nutritious Pellets
Looking Forward: A Dream of the United States of the Americas in 1999, Arthur Bird · 1899
A capsule meant to supply a person's full daily nourishment, replacing ordinary meals.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a capsule that stands in for a whole day of meals would be an industry of its own and would change how armies, travellers and the hungry are fed, though I assumed most people would still eat ordinary meals for pleasure.
Who is paid. Households buy it, and I assumed the recipe can be copied once it is known, so the food and pharmacy brands with shop space collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Artificial Food
The World Set Free, H.G. Wells · 1914
Makes food by chemical synthesis instead of growing it in fields.
built in the 2000s, about 90 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Food made without fields would free the feeding of people from land and weather, which touches nearly everyone.
Who is paid. Households buy it as ordinary groceries, and since the method can be copied, the food makers who already own plants, brands and shop space collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Food Tablet
John Jones's Dollar, Harry Stephen Keeler · 1915
A single tablet delivering a complete day's nutrition without eating regular food.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a tablet that stands in for a whole day of meals would be an industry of its own and would change how armies, travellers and the hungry are fed, though I assumed most people would still eat ordinary meals for pleasure.
Who is paid. Households buy it, and I assumed the recipe can be copied once it is known, so the food and pharmacy brands with shop space collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Concentro
Armageddon: 2419 A.D., Philip Frances Nowlan · 1928
Compact manufactured food packs for soldiers and travellers.
already existed before the story (the 1910s)
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Compact rations are a convenience for people who cannot carry or cook ordinary food.
Who is paid. I assumed armies and state expeditions are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold their supply contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sound-Killing Air Fluid
The Noise Killer, A.M. McNeill · 1930
A substance released into city air that absorbs mechanical din while letting human speech carry.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A city with its machine noise gone but speech still clear would be a real gain for everyone living there.
Who is paid. Nobody can be charged for quiet air one by one, so cities pay, and I assumed the substance is a formula its inventor can keep to itself.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Food Factory
Exiles of the Moon, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931
An automated plant that makes food synthetically instead of farming it.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Food made without fields would free the feeding of people from land and weather, which touches nearly everyone.
Who is paid. Households buy it as ordinary groceries, and since the method can be copied, the food makers who already own plants, brands and shop space collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Synthetic Food Factories
The Revolt of the Machines, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931
Industrial plants that manufacture edible produce without growing crops in fields of earth.
built in the 1950s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Food made without fields would free the feeding of people from land and weather, which touches nearly everyone.
Who is paid. Households buy it as ordinary groceries, and since the method can be copied, the food makers who already own plants, brands and shop space collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Spaceship Garden
The Heritage of the Earth, Harley S. Aldinger · 1932
A sealed growing area aboard a spacecraft that raises plants the crew can eat.
built in the 2010s, about 80 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Fresh food grown on board is a help to a small number of crews, not a wide market.
Who is paid. Whoever buys the ship buys the garden with it, usually a ship operator, and the spacecraft builders that fit out sealed cabins supply it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Surta
The Great Dome of Mercury, Leo Zagat · 1932
A cheap engineered ingredient that can be processed into many kinds of manufactured food.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A cheap base that can be turned into many kinds of food would lower the cost of eating for nearly everyone.
Who is paid. Households buy it as ordinary groceries, and since the method can be copied, the food makers who already own plants, brands and shop space collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Weather Machine
Slaves of Mercury, Nat Schachner · 1932
A device that lets its operators dictate the weather over an area.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A vast prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Choosing the weather over wide areas would change farming, flood and drought for most people.
Who is paid. Nobody can be charged one by one for weather, so governments pay, and I assumed the power source it needs is hard enough that the first builder holds it alone.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Synthetic Food
Unto Us A Child Is Born, David H. Keller · 1933
Edible meals produced by growing cells or organisms in laboratory vats rather than on farms.
built in the 2020s, about 90 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Whole meals grown in tanks with no farms would free the feeding of people from land and weather, which touches nearly everyone.
Who is paid. Households buy it as ordinary groceries, and since the method can be copied, the food makers who already own plants, brands and shop space collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Synthetic Food Dispenser
Twilight, John W. Campbell · 1934
A kitchen machine that builds any requested dish from raw chemical ingredients, atom by atom.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A kitchen machine that builds any dish from raw chemicals would end both farming and cooking for most households.
Who is paid. Households buy the machine for the kitchen, and being strange does not make it hard to copy, so once it exists many firms could build it and no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wine Pellets
Redmask of the Outlands, Nat Schachner · 1934
Wine dehydrated into small tablets that store easily and can be turned back into a drink.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Alcohol in dry form is a convenience for carrying and storing a drink people already have.
Who is paid. Households buy it, and drying a drink is easy to copy, so the drink brands that already own shelf space collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Doughpot
Parasite Planet, Stanley G. Weinbaum · 1935
A shapeless blob of living jelly on a swampy world that can grow from one cell into a huge engulfing heap.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a creature in a story and not something anyone could build or sell.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller gains.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Thermide
Parasite Planet, Stanley G. Weinbaum · 1935
A powder dropped into water heats it to boiling at once, killing germs and making it safe to drink.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A powder that boils water at once is a handy aid for travellers and people without safe water.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and I assumed the chemical is simple enough for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Electric Tractor
World of Purple Light, Warner Van Lorne · 1936
A battery-powered farm machine for working fields.
already existed before the story (the 1920s)
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A battery tractor changes the running costs of farming, but it is one machine swapping one power source for another, not the whole move to machines.
Who is paid. Farmers buy it, and the design is easy to copy, so the farm machinery makers with dealers and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Synthite Food
Planet of Eternal Night, John W. Campbell · 1939
Dense packaged rations made for people on long space journeys.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Compact rations are a convenience for people who cannot carry or cook ordinary food.
Who is paid. I assumed armies and state expeditions are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold their supply contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hydroponics
The Hydroponic Monster, Maria Moravsky · 1940
Raising crops in nutrient-rich water instead of earth.
already existed before the story (the 1930s)
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Growing crops in water lets food be raised without good soil, which is an industry of its own even though it never replaced fields.
Who is paid. Households buy the food grown this way, and the method is well known and needs no good land, so any grower can use it and no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mind Control Genetically Modified Food
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
Crops altered at the genetic level to yield chosen blends of taste.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Crops bred for chosen blends of taste are a pleasant variety, not a change in the cost of food.
Who is paid. Growers buy the plants, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the seed houses and nurseries that already hold stock, land and sales channels collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Weather Integrator
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
Technology that steers and schedules the weather over wide areas.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A vast prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Choosing the weather over wide areas would change farming, flood and drought for most people.
Who is paid. Nobody can be charged one by one for weather, so governments pay, and I assumed the power source it needs is hard enough that the first builder holds it alone.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Martian Sawgrass
QRM - Interplanetary, George O. Smith · 1942
A bred plant variety grown aboard orbiting habitats to replenish breathable air.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Plants that keep the air fresh serve only the few people living in sealed habitats.
Who is paid. Whoever runs the habitat pays, assumed to be a government, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the growers and suppliers that already serve such habitats collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gum Tree
Symbiotica, Eric Frank Russell · 1943
A giant plant that strikes out at others through its own will.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a hostile plant in a story and not something anyone could build or sell.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller gains.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Microwavable Food
Space Cadet, Robert Heinlein · 1948
Packaged meals designed to be cooked quickly in a radio-wave oven.
built in the 1970s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Ready meals cooked in minutes changed how many households eat and made an industry of their own.
Who is paid. Households buy them, and any food firm can pack a meal, so the brands with factories and freezer space in the shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Desert Cabbage
Red Planet, Robert Heinlein · 1949
A huge Martian plant that keeps itself warm against the frigid surface.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a plant in a story and not something anyone could build or sell.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller gains.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Fontema
First Lensman, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1950
An alien creature that gets around on a pair of wheel-like body parts.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a creature in a story and not something anyone could build or sell.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller gains.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Syntho-Steak
Farmer in the Sky, Robert Heinlein · 1950
Meat made in a factory instead of from a slaughtered animal.
built in the 2020s, about 70 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Meat without animals at a low price would reshape the whole meat trade, though it replaces one food and not the whole diet.
Who is paid. Shoppers pay, and once the method is known many firms can run tanks, so the meat packers and food brands that already reach the shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tri-D
The Morning of the Day They Did It, E.B. White · 1950
A powerful fictional pesticide whose dangers drive the story's plot.
built in the 2010s, about 60 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Judged on its promise alone, a pesticide that powerful would change the costs of farming, though the story is about the harm it does.
Who is paid. Farmers buy it, and I assumed the chemical is protected so that only its inventor may make it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Yeast Steak
The Evitable Conflict, Isaac Asimov · 1950
Tailored microbial strains farmed as a protein food.
built in the 1960s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A cheap protein grown in tanks would lower the cost of one part of the diet, as tank meat would, but the description does not make it the staple people live on.
Who is paid. Households buy it inside ordinary food, and tanks of microbes are easy to copy, so the food makers with plants and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Agricultural World
Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1951
An entire planet given over to farming to feed a crowded neighbouring world.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. It is ordinary farming at the scale of a planet, feeding one crowded world, so it is a very big trade but not a new way of living.
Who is paid. The people of the crowded world buy the food, and farming is easy to copy, so whoever already owns the land and the freight ships collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Coffee Cube
The Marching Morons, C.M. Kornbluth · 1951
A block of condensed coffee that heats itself into a hot drink.
built in the 1960s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. This is a small convenience or novelty in what people drink.
Who is paid. Households buy it, and since the recipe is easy to copy the drink brands that already own shelf space collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dirt-Farming
The End of the Line, James Schmitz · 1951
Growing crops in soil, seen by future people as a quaint old practice.
built since, date unclear
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Growing crops in soil is how nearly all of humanity is fed.
Who is paid. Households buy the food, and since anyone can farm, those who already own the good land collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flavor-Fix Rheostat
The Jester, William Tenn · 1951
A control that tunes the taste of machine-cooked meals until it is just right.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A dial for the taste of machine-cooked meals is a kitchen convenience.
Who is paid. I assumed it is a home cooker, which households buy, and the feature is easy to copy, so the appliance makers with brands and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Oxygen Weeds
The Sands of Mars, Arthur C. Clarke · 1951
Engineered plants that release breathable gas into a thin alien atmosphere.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Plants that make a thin alien air breathable would open a whole world to settlers, though few people would live there for a long time.
Who is paid. A government pays to seed a whole world, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the growers and contractors that already hold such public works contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vat Meat (Albert)
The End of the Line, James Schmitz · 1951
Animal flesh cultured in tanks instead of raised on farms.
built in the 2000s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Meat without animals at a low price would reshape the whole meat trade, though it replaces one food and not the whole diet.
Who is paid. Shoppers pay, and once the method is known many firms can run tanks, so the meat packers and food brands that already reach the shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Animal-tissue Culture Vat
Uller Uprising, H. Beam Piper · 1952
Tanks that grow animal cells into edible meat.
built in the 2020s, about 70 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Meat without animals at a low price would reshape the whole meat trade, though it replaces one food and not the whole diet.
Who is paid. Shoppers pay, and once the method is known many firms can run tanks, so the meat packers and food brands that already reach the shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Chicken Little
The Space Merchants, Frederik Pohl (w/CM Kornbluth · 1952
A huge, ever-growing mass of cultured poultry tissue sliced off for food.
built in the 2020s, about 70 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Meat without animals at a low price would reshape the whole meat trade, though it replaces one food and not the whole diet.
Who is paid. Shoppers pay, and once the method is known many firms can run tanks, so the meat packers and food brands that already reach the shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Chlorella Plantation
The Space Merchants, Frederik Pohl (w/CM Kornbluth · 1952
A tall tower farm that grows algae as a staple food.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. The story makes this the staple that people live on, so like any food made without fields it would free the feeding of people from land and weather; the real thing stayed a niche and I judged the promise.
Who is paid. Households buy it inside ordinary food, and tanks of microbes are easy to copy, so the food makers with plants and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Coffiest
The Space Merchants, Frederik Pohl (w/CM Kornbluth · 1952
A branded drink laced with a habit-forming additive so customers keep buying it.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. To the drinker it is just one more drink, and the habit it forms is a harm and not a gain.
Who is paid. Households buy it, and I assumed the additive is a secret that keeps customers tied to one brand, so its owner keeps what is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flat Cat
The Rolling Stones, Robert Heinlein · 1952
A fictional pancake-shaped furry pet creature from another world.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A cuddly pet from another world is a pleasure for its owner and nothing more.
Who is paid. I assumed it is sold as a pet to households, and since the animals breed fast any owner can become a seller.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flavor-Capsule
Foundation and Empire, Isaac Asimov · 1952
A tablet dropped into water to make a tasty drink.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. This is a small convenience or novelty in what people drink.
Who is paid. Households buy it, and since the recipe is easy to copy the drink brands that already own shelf space collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Soot-Extractor Nostril Plugs (Antisoot Plugs)
The Space Merchants, Frederik Pohl (w/CM Kornbluth · 1952
Little filters pushed into the nose to keep smog out of the lungs.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Nose filters are a cheap personal aid against dirty air.
Who is paid. People buy them for themselves, and a small filter is easy for any firm to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Big Flue
Fahrenheit 451, Ray Bradbury · 1953
Giant furnaces that helicopters feed directly with loads to burn.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A big furnace fed from the air is one more way of burning waste, a modest gain over ordinary plants.
Who is paid. I assumed cities pay for waste burning, and the waste firms that already hold the city contracts and sites collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Yeast-Culture Vats
Caves of Steel, Isaac Asimov · 1953
Large tanks of cultivated microbes that supply a city's staple food.
built since, date unclear
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. The story makes this the staple that people live on, so like any food made without fields it would free the feeding of people from land and weather; the real thing stayed a niche and I judged the promise.
Who is paid. Households buy it inside ordinary food, and tanks of microbes are easy to copy, so the food makers with plants and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Protine
Solar Lottery, Philip K. Dick · 1955
Engineered algae processed so that it passes for ordinary food in look and flavour.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. The story has it stand in for ordinary food of every kind, so like any food made without fields it would free the feeding of people from land and weather; the real thing stayed a niche and I judged the promise.
Who is paid. Households buy it inside ordinary food, and tanks of microbes are easy to copy, so the food makers with plants and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Synthetic Milk
Autofac, Philip K. Dick · 1955
Milk produced industrially with no dairy animals involved.
built in the 2010s, about 60 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Milk without dairy animals at a low price would reshape the dairy trade, though it replaces one food and not the whole diet.
Who is paid. Shoppers pay, and once the method is known many firms can make it, so the dairy and food brands that already reach the shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Crop Algae
Cities in Flight, James Blish · 1957
Tanks of cultivated algae that supply staple food.
built since, date unclear
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. The story makes this the staple that people live on, so like any food made without fields it would free the feeding of people from land and weather; the real thing stayed a niche and I judged the promise.
Who is paid. Households buy it inside ordinary food, and tanks of microbes are easy to copy, so the food makers with plants and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Self-Service Cafeteria
The Mechanical Monarch, E.C. Tubb · 1958
An eatery where diners get meals straight away without waiting staff.
built since, date unclear
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Meals served at once with no waiting staff cut the cost of eating out and made a trade of their own.
Who is paid. Diners pay, and any eatery can drop its waiters, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Walking Mill
Bread Overhead!, Fritz Leiber · 1958
A huge legged farm machine that reaps grain and turns it into loaves before leaving the field.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Reaping and baking in one machine is a convenience over a harvester and a bakery working apart.
Who is paid. Farm and bakery firms buy it, and I assumed it is easy to copy, so the farm machinery makers with dealers and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Butcher Vegetable
Time is the Simplest Thing, Clifford Simak · 1961
A crop plant that grows steak-like protein.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A crop that grows meat would cut the cost of meat across the whole trade.
Who is paid. Growers buy the plants, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the seed houses and nurseries that already hold stock, land and sales channels collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Carniculture Plants
Four-Day Planet, H. Beam Piper · 1961
Factories that culture animal protein as meat without raising livestock.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Meat without animals at a low price would reshape the whole meat trade, though it replaces one food and not the whole diet.
Who is paid. Shoppers pay, and once the method is known many firms can run tanks, so the meat packers and food brands that already reach the shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Green Guk
The Beat Cluster, Fritz Leiber · 1961
Algae cultures kept to supply breathable air in a closed habitat.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Plants that keep the air fresh serve only the few people living in sealed habitats.
Who is paid. I assumed state space programmes pay, and plants and algae can be regrown by anyone who has a sample, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hunting Robe
Time is the Simplest Thing, Clifford Simak · 1961
An alien predator, thin and furry, that kills prey by wrapping tightly around it.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a creature in a story and not something anyone could build or sell.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller gains.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hydroponics in Space
The Planet Strappers, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1961
Growing food crops in nutrient solution aboard spacecraft.
built in the 1990s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Fresh food grown on board is a help to a small number of crews, not a wide market.
Who is paid. Whoever buys the ship buys the tanks with it, usually a ship operator, and the spacecraft builders that fit out sealed cabins supply it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Carniculture Vat
Space Viking, H. Beam Piper · 1962
Tanks that grow meat from cells without animals.
built in 2013, 51 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Meat without animals at a low price would reshape the whole meat trade, though it replaces one food and not the whole diet.
Who is paid. Shoppers pay, and once the method is known many firms can run tanks, so the meat packers and food brands that already reach the shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dumbler
Hothouse, Brian Aldiss · 1962
Half-aware spores from an alien plant in a far-future jungle.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a creature in a story and not something anyone could build or sell.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller gains.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Lunar Web
Hothouse, Brian Aldiss · 1962
Giant organic strands stretched between the Earth and its moon in a far-future setting.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a natural growth in a story, not a technology, and nobody makes or sells it.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller gains.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Syn-Cof
Cantata 140, Philip K. Dick · 1964
A lab-made substitute for coffee.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. This is a small convenience or novelty in what people drink.
Who is paid. Households buy it, and since the recipe is easy to copy the drink brands that already own shelf space collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Chromoplastic Dew Collector
Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965
An egg-shaped gadget whose colour-shifting skin gathers desert morning moisture.
built since, date unclear
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Drinking water drawn from dry air would open up dry lands to settlement, which is worth an industry.
Who is paid. People living in dry places buy it for themselves, and I assumed the gear is simple enough that many workshops can make it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dew Gatherers
Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965
Devices that capture early-day condensation for drinking.
built since, date unclear
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Drinking water drawn from dry air would open up dry lands to settlement, which is worth an industry.
Who is paid. People living in dry places buy it for themselves, and I assumed the gear is simple enough that many workshops can make it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Slaver Sunflowers
World of Ptavvs, Larry Niven · 1965
Alien plants that focus sunlight to scorch their enemies.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Plants that burn whoever comes near are a hazard, and the description does not say that anyone plants them on purpose as a guard.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller gains.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Spatial-Postal Card
Bill the Galactic Hero, Harry Harrison · 1965
An edible postcard sent to soldiers from home.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A postcard you can eat is a novelty.
Who is paid. Families buy them to send, and printing on something edible is easy for anyone, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Windtrap
Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965
Pulls moisture out of the air to supply drinking water.
built since, date unclear
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Drinking water drawn from dry air would open up dry lands to settlement, which is worth an industry.
Who is paid. People living in dry places buy it for themselves, and I assumed the gear is simple enough that many workshops can make it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Lunar Greenhouse Tunnel
The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966
An underground growing space on the Moon for crops and other uses.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A growing tunnel on the Moon feeds a small settlement, not a wide market.
Who is paid. Firms working on the Moon pay for it, and because it must hold air against vacuum, the builders that already make sealed shelters collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cloud Sculpting
The Cloud Sculptors of Coral D, J.G. Ballard · 1967
Shaping clouds into art using gliders and chemical sprays.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Weather shaped as a show is an entertainment for a small audience.
Who is paid. I assumed spectators and patrons pay the performers, and anyone with the gear and the skill can stage one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Syrup Sac
The Last Castle, Jack Vance · 1967
A pouch supplying concentrated nourishment to alien servant workers.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A pouch of feed for servant workers is a plain supply item.
Who is paid. Unlike rations for armies, here I assumed the masters who keep the workers buy it, and a sweet feed is easy for anyone to make.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Plastic-Eating Bacteria
The Andromeda Strain, Michael Crichton · 1969
Altered microbes able to break down rubber and plastics.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Microbes that break down plastic and rubber would change the cost of dealing with waste.
Who is paid. Waste firms and councils' contractors buy the cultures, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the laboratories and waste firms that already hold cultures, plant and customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pseudoflesh
Whipping Star, Frank Herbert · 1969
Meat grown without raising animals, producing steaks from cultured protein.
built in 2013, 44 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Meat without animals at a low price would reshape the whole meat trade, though it replaces one food and not the whole diet.
Who is paid. Shoppers pay, and once the method is known many firms can run tanks, so the meat packers and food brands that already reach the shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Food Brick
Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970
Manufactured ration blocks tailored to feed any kind of creature.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Compact rations are a convenience for people who cannot carry or cook ordinary food.
Who is paid. I assumed armies and state expeditions are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold their supply contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Powdered Alcohol
The Stainless Steel Rat's Revenge, Harry Harrison · 1970
A dry powder form of alcoholic drink.
built in the 1970s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Alcohol in dry form is a convenience for carrying and storing a drink people already have.
Who is paid. Households buy it, and drying a drink is easy to copy, so the drink brands that already own shelf space collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Refrigeration Tape
Tower of Glass, Robert Silverberg · 1970
A strip laid across land to keep large stretches of permafrost frozen.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Keeping frozen ground frozen across wide stretches would protect roads, pipelines and towns in cold lands.
Who is paid. Governments pay to protect land nobody can be charged for, and I assumed the new material is hard to copy, so its first maker keeps what is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tickler
Eurema's Dam, R.A. Lafferty · 1972
A machine that removes smog from the air and keeps the collected residue.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A machine that clears smog from city air would be a real gain for everyone who breathes it.
Who is paid. Nobody can be charged for clean air one by one, so cities pay, and I assumed the makers of heavy air-handling gear who already sell to cities collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Environmental Happening
The Phantom of Kansas, John Varley · 1976
Engineered weather staged as an artistic performance.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Weather shaped as a show is an entertainment for a small audience.
Who is paid. I assumed spectators and patrons pay the performers, and anyone with the gear and the skill can stage one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
RUMOKO
My Name is Legion, Roger Zelazny · 1976
A project to make new land by deliberately triggering volcanoes under the sea.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. New land raised from the sea would be worth a great deal to a crowded country.
Who is paid. A government pays for a project of this size, and I assumed the heavy engineering firms that already win such contracts do the work and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sonic Curtain (Sound Lock)
My Name is Legion, Roger Zelazny · 1976
An underwater sound barrier that keeps large sea creatures away.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Keeping animals out with sound is a niche tool for a few sites.
Who is paid. Owners of sea sites such as fish farms and harbours buy it, and underwater loudspeaker gear is easy for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vaporator
Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976
A machine that pulls water out of the air for growing crops.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Water drawn from dry air for crops would open up dry lands to farming, which is worth an industry.
Who is paid. Here farms buy it to water crops, not households to drink, and I assumed the gear is simple enough that many workshops can make it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Alien Zoo
The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977
A zoo collecting flora and fauna from numerous worlds.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A zoo of creatures from many worlds is an attraction people visit for pleasure.
Who is paid. I assumed visitors buy tickets, and whoever holds animals that nobody else can get keeps what is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Life Bank
The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977
A vault preserving genetic material from Earth's living things.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A store of living things is insurance against loss, valued by the public but not something that changes daily life.
Who is paid. No visitor or user can be charged, so governments pay, and I assumed any capable builder can put one up, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pork Tree
The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977
A crop plant that grows a substitute for animal flesh.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A crop that grows meat would cut the cost of meat across the whole trade.
Who is paid. Growers buy the plants, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the seed houses and nurseries that already hold stock, land and sales channels collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sonabarrier
The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977
A sound-based barrier that stops birds from entering protected zones.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Keeping animals out with sound is a niche tool for a few sites.
Who is paid. Site owners such as farms, ports and airfields buy it, and loudspeaker gear is easy for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Zoo Fences
The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977
An animal enclosure barrier formed by a moat of corrosive liquid.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A barrier of corrosive liquid is one more way to fence a zoo.
Who is paid. Zoos buy it, and a ditch filled with a harsh liquid is something any builder can supply, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Iceberg Water Tub
Oath of Fealty, Jerry Pournelle (w/L. Niven · 1981
A giant container wrapped around a towed iceberg to deliver fresh water.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Fresh water delivered by iceberg could supply dry coastal cities, which is a whole water business.
Who is paid. City water authorities pay, and I assumed the towing can be copied, so the firms that already own big tugs and ports collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Genetically Tailored Trees
Eye of Cat, Roger Zelazny · 1982
Trees engineered to make and store usable oil in quantity.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Trees that make usable oil in quantity would change the costs of the fuel and oil trade.
Who is paid. Planters and mills buy the trees, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the nurseries and forestry firms that already hold stock, land and sales channels collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vat Grown Meat
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
Animal flesh for eating cultivated in a vessel instead of on a living creature.
built in the 2020s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Meat without animals at a low price would reshape the whole meat trade, though it replaces one food and not the whole diet.
Who is paid. Shoppers pay, and once the method is known many firms can run tanks, so the meat packers and food brands that already reach the shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dainties
Prelude to Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1988
Bite-sized flavour morsels cultivated artificially as treats.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Cultivated flavour morsels are a treat, a pleasant extra and not a staple.
Who is paid. Households buy them, and I assumed the growing method is easy to copy, so the confectionery brands with shop space collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Microfarm
Prelude to Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1988
Growing crops without dirt, feeding plants through water or other media instead.
built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Growing crops without soil lets food be raised without good land, which is an industry of its own even though it never replaced fields.
Who is paid. Households buy the food grown this way, and the method is well known and needs no good land, so any grower can use it and no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Scop
Islands in the Net, Bruce Sterling · 1988
Edible protein cultivated from microbes in large tanks.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A cheap protein grown in tanks would lower the cost of one part of the diet, as tank meat would, but the description does not make it the staple people live on.
Who is paid. Households buy it inside ordinary food, and tanks of microbes are easy to copy, so the food makers with plants and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Week Trees
Wetware, Rudy Rucker · 1988
Engineered miniature trees that mature in days rather than generations.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Tiny trees that mature in days are an ornament; too small for timber, so I assumed they are bought for looks.
Who is paid. People buy them for the home or garden, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the nurseries and garden shops that already hold stock and shelves collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Garbage Mine
Earth, David Brin · 1990
Mining landfill and waste streams for materials, creating new recovery businesses.
already existed before the story (the 1960s)
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Recovering metals and materials from old dumps would be an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Factories buy the recovered materials, and the digging is easy to copy, so those who already own the dump sites collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Genetic Ark
Earth, David Brin · 1990
Huge sealed habitats that keep many species alive to preserve animal genetic diversity.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A store of living things is insurance against loss, valued by the public but not something that changes daily life.
Who is paid. No visitor or user can be charged, so governments pay, and I assumed any capable builder can put one up, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Home Termite Habitat
Natulife, David Brin · 1994
A kitchen appliance for farming insects at home as food.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Raising insects for food in the kitchen is a niche taste.
Who is paid. Households buy it, and a box for insects is easy for any appliance firm to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Yeast-Beast Machine
Natulife, David Brin · 1994
A machine that cultivates meat from cells inside a tank.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Meat without animals at a low price would reshape the whole meat trade, though it replaces one food and not the whole diet.
Who is paid. Shoppers pay whether this is a home machine or a factory one, which the description does not say, and once the method is known many firms can copy it, so the meat packers and food brands that already reach the shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Geotect
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
A designer who shapes land and builds whole physical landscapes.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. This is a profession and not a product, so I judged the work it sells: making and shaping whole landscapes to order would be an industry of its own.
Who is paid. I assumed developers and cities hire these designers, and it is a skilled trade that many people can train for, so no one seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Smartcoral Reef
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
An engineered reef that draws in seawater to supply big coastal settlements.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2080s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A reef that draws in the sea to supply big coastal settlements would be a water business of its own.
Who is paid. A government pays for the water supply of its coast, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the marine builders and growers that already hold such public works contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Spook
SOLACE, Jeff Noon · 1998
A bottled plain drink with flavouring released by turning its lid.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. This is a small convenience or novelty in what people drink.
Who is paid. Households buy it, and since the recipe is easy to copy the drink brands that already own shelf space collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Weather Pod
Dune: House Harkonnen, Brian Herbert · 2001
A restricted instrument package used by planet scientists to study weather.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A package of weather instruments is a tool for a small group of scientists.
Who is paid. I assumed state science bodies buy it, and instruments like these can be made by many firms, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Alien Tarantula
Engine City, Ken MacLeod · 2003
An imagined alien creature whose feet grip surfaces like a lizard's.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a creature in a story and not something anyone could build or sell.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller gains.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
ChickieNobs
Oryx and Crake, Margaret Atwood · 2003
Poultry meat harvested from an engineered organism that grows only edible parts.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Meat from an organism that grows only the edible parts would cut the cost of meat across the whole trade.
Who is paid. Meat producers buy the stock, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the breeders and farm suppliers that already hold stock, sheds and sales channels collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Happicuppa Coffee Bush
Oryx and Crake, Margaret Atwood · 2003
A genetically modified coffee plant designed so its beans ripen together for machine picking.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Coffee that ripens all at once for machine picking would change the costs of the coffee trade.
Who is paid. Growers buy the plants, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the seed houses and nurseries that already hold stock, land and sales channels collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sterile Seeds
The Calorie Man, Paolo Bacigalupi · 2005
Crop seed engineered so its harvest yields seed that will not sprout, forcing growers to buy again.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Seed that must be bought again every season changes who holds the money in farming, though the gain to growers depends on the crop being better.
Who is paid. Growers pay every season, and because saved seed will not sprout the breeder can stop all copying and keeps the most.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Allswell
Anathem, Neal Stephenson · 2008
A substance mixed into meals that makes people who eat it calmer and more placid.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a drug put into meals to make people placid and it is banned, so nobody may buy it.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller gains.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Homing Butterflies
Moxyland, Lauren Beukes · 2008
Engineered butterflies that stay with a bunch of flowers after it is bought.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Butterflies that stay with a bouquet are a pretty extra on a gift.
Who is paid. People buy them with their flowers, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the florists and breeders that already hold stock and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Darknet Farm
Freedom, Daniel Suarez · 2010
A community farm run on networked computer systems to keep its agriculture sustainable.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Running one community farm by networked software is a modest gain in care for the land.
Who is paid. The farm itself pays for the system, and farm software and sensors can be supplied by many firms, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Lifting whole flooded districts above the water would save cities and be a building trade of its own.
Who is paid. City authorities pay, and the lifting can be copied, so the big construction firms that already win public works collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Rocket Pine
The Human Blend, Alan Dean Foster · 2010
Trees genetically modified to grow fast for paper and wood fibre production.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Fast-growing trees for paper and wood fibre would change the costs of the paper and timber trade.
Who is paid. Planters and mills buy the trees, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the nurseries and forestry firms that already hold stock, land and sales channels collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Clearsac
The Water Knife, Paolo Bacigalupi · 2015
A simple pouch that purifies dirty or used water well enough to drink again.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A pouch that makes dirty water drinkable is a cheap personal aid, precious where water is scarce but a small purchase.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and a simple filter pouch can be made by many firms, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Public Urine Collection
The Water Knife, Paolo Bacigalupi · 2015
Public toilets in enclosed cities that gather waste for water and nutrient recovery.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Gathering waste from public toilets to recover water and plant food is a modest saving for a dry city.
Who is paid. The city pays for its own plumbing, and the pipes and treatment gear can be supplied by many firms, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pina2bo
Termination Shock, Neal Stephenson · 2021
A giant gun firing reflective particles into the upper sky to cool the planet.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A vast prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Cooling the whole planet would touch the weather and harvests of nearly everyone, for good or ill.
Who is paid. Nobody can be charged one by one, so a government pays, and the gun and the particles are plain engineering that many builders could supply.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.