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Futures · expected

Expected in 2100 or later

Dated forecasts that name this time, as their authors stated them, then the unbuilt ideas AI models placed here.

What authors forecast for 2100 or later

  • Chalmers doubts human-level AI will appear within thirty years but puts his confidence that it arrives before 2100 above even.

    David Chalmers · by 2100 · somewhere over one half · there will be human-level AI before 2100 · on the prediction ledger

    From The Singularity: A Philosophical Analysis, David Chalmers, 2010

  • Karnofsky argues that a productivity explosion has a good chance of happening by 2100 and could quickly yield a technologically mature civilization able to send spacecraft through the galaxy.

    Holden Karnofsky · by 2100 · good chance · a good chance of a productivity explosion by 2100

    From The Most Important Century (consolidated series), Holden Karnofsky, 2021

  • Karnofsky puts about two-in-three odds on transformative AI being developed within this century, by 2100.

    Holden Karnofsky · by 2100 · about two-thirds · a ~2/3 chance it will be developed this century (by 2100) · on the prediction ledger

    From The Most Important Century (consolidated series), Holden Karnofsky, 2021

  • Kurzweil projects a thousand dollars will buy about ten to the sixtieth operations per second by 2100.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2100

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

Unbuilt ideas AI models place here

Space travel and habitats · 58
Illustration of Steering a Star: Pushes a whole star off its natural course and moves it somewhere else.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Steering a Star

Crashing Suns, Edmond Hamilton · 1928

Pushes a whole star off its natural course and moves it somewhere else.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Moving a whole star would decide the fate of every world around it, which is assumed here to mean saving or resettling whole peoples.

Who is paid. Only a government could fund work on that scale, and the large engineering firms that already hold such contracts would be paid to do it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Exodus Ship: A huge vessel carrying a whole society across many lifetimes of travel to rescue it from dying out.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Exodus Ship

Tani of Ekkis, Judson W. Reeves · 1930

A huge vessel carrying a whole society across many lifetimes of travel to rescue it from dying out.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A vessel the size of a small world carrying a whole society is an enormous building project.

Who is paid. Only a government could fund it, and the big shipbuilders and contractors already trusted with such work would be paid.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Planets Made Habitable: Reshaping another world's air, temperature and surface so people could live there.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Planets Made Habitable

Last and First Men, Olaf Stapledon · 1930

Reshaping another world's air, temperature and surface so people could live there.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Giving a whole world air and a climate people can live in would open new land for a large share of humanity.

Who is paid. Only a government could fund work on a whole world, and the large engineering firms that already hold such contracts would be paid to do it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Manufactured Planet: An artificial world built in orbit, large enough to be mistaken for a natural satellite.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Manufactured Planet

The Heritage of the Earth, Harley S. Aldinger · 1932

An artificial world built in orbit, large enough to be mistaken for a natural satellite.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A new world to live on would add living room for a large share of humanity.

Who is paid. No private buyer could fund a world, so a government pays and the large builders that already hold public works contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Rotating Hollow Planetoid Habitat: Hollows out a small space rock and spins it so its interior can house people under simulated weight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rotating Hollow Planetoid Habitat

Electronic Siege, John W. Campbell · 1932

Hollows out a small space rock and spins it so its interior can house people under simulated weight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A place for many people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.

Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Artificial Planet: A world-sized structure assembled in orbit by builders rather than formed by nature.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Artificial Planet

Triplanetary, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1934

A world-sized structure assembled in orbit by builders rather than formed by nature.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A new world to live on would add living room for a large share of humanity.

Who is paid. No private buyer could fund a world, so a government pays and the large builders that already hold public works contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Moving a Planet: Shifting an entire world out of its orbit and carrying it across interstellar space to settle around a different star.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Moving a Planet

Triplanetary, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1934

Shifting an entire world out of its orbit and carrying it across interstellar space to settle around a different star.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Carrying a whole world to a safer or better place would decide where a large share of humanity can live.

Who is paid. Only a government could fund work on a whole world, and the large engineering firms that already hold such contracts would be paid to do it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Planetary Propulsion-Blasts: Enormous engines fire against a world to nudge it into a different orbit or send it toward another star.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Planetary Propulsion-Blasts

Thundering Worlds, Edmond Hamilton · 1934

Enormous engines fire against a world to nudge it into a different orbit or send it toward another star.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Carrying a whole world to a safer or better place would decide where a large share of humanity can live.

Who is paid. Only a government could fund work on a whole world, and the large engineering firms that already hold such contracts would be paid to do it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Silica Sphere (Dyson sphere): A hollowed habitat carved out on the red planet is lifted into orbit to become a moon.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Silica Sphere (Dyson sphere)

Lost City of Mars, Harl Vincent · 1934

A hollowed habitat carved out on the red planet is lifted into orbit to become a moon.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A hollowed place for many people to live, lifted into orbit as a small moon, is a building project on the scale of an industry.

Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Living Space Ship: A spacecraft whose hull is grown from living plant-like material rather than built from metal.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Living Space Ship

Proxima Centauri, Murray Leinster · 1935

A spacecraft whose hull is grown from living plant-like material rather than built from metal.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A working ship that carries people and cargo between worlds is the base of a whole transport industry.

Who is paid. Carriers buy ships, and a hull grown from a living line can be regrown by anyone who holds a cutting, so the established shipbuilders and carriers collect as with any other ship.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of New Suns From Old: Smashing burnt-out stellar remnants together to reignite them as fresh, shining stars.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

New Suns From Old

The Cosmic Pantograph, Edmond Hamilton · 1935

Smashing burnt-out stellar remnants together to reignite them as fresh, shining stars.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Lighting a new sun would give warmth and daylight to whole worlds, opening living room for a large share of humanity.

Who is paid. Only a government could fund work on a star, and the large engineering firms that already hold such contracts would be paid to do it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Foam Station Sprayer: A sprayer that calms the giant storm on Jupiter.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Foam Station Sprayer

Red Storm on Jupiter, Frank Belknap Long, Jr. · 1936

A sprayer that calms the giant storm on Jupiter.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Calming a storm on a giant planet matters only to those who would work there, a niche.

Who is paid. It is assumed the firms mining that world pay for it as working gear, and makers of such equipment could copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Multi-Generation Space Vessel (Generation Ship): A vessel for a voyage so long that its crew's descendants finish the trip.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Multi-Generation Space Vessel (Generation Ship)

The Return of the Murians, Nat Schachner · 1936

A vessel for a voyage so long that its crew's descendants finish the trip.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A vessel carrying a whole population on a voyage of many lifetimes is an enormous building project.

Who is paid. Only a government could fund it, and the big shipbuilders and contractors already trusted with such work would be paid.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Planetary Engineering: Reshaping a whole world's surface, climate or structure on purpose.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Planetary Engineering

The Cometeers, Jack Williamson · 1936

Reshaping a whole world's surface, climate or structure on purpose.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Giving a whole world air and a climate people can live in would open new land for a large share of humanity.

Who is paid. Only a government could fund work on a whole world, and the large engineering firms that already hold such contracts would be paid to do it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Starways: Established travel routes linking one star system to another.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Starways

Blood of the Moon, Ray Cummings · 1936

Established travel routes linking one star system to another.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a word or a way of doing things that needs no new equipment, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Artificial Planet: Worlds built from scratch at planetary scale for people to live on.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Artificial Planet

Star Maker, Olaf Stapledon · 1937

Worlds built from scratch at planetary scale for people to live on.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A new world to live on would add living room for a large share of humanity.

Who is paid. No private buyer could fund a world, so a government pays and the large builders that already hold public works contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gold-Fish-Bowl World: A constructed world covered entirely in water.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gold-Fish-Bowl World

Star Maker, Olaf Stapledon · 1937

A constructed world covered entirely in water.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A new world to live on would add living room for a large share of humanity.

Who is paid. No private buyer could fund a world, so a government pays and the large builders that already hold public works contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Heat Generating Magnetic Disks: Devices that warm the ground of cold moons to livable temperatures.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Heat Generating Magnetic Disks

Spawn of the Red Giants, Frank Belknap Long, Jr. · 1937

Devices that warm the ground of cold moons to livable temperatures.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Warming cold ground so people can live on it would open new land, though it warms patches of ground and does not remake a whole world's air.

Who is paid. Making land livable is a public work a government pays for, and once the device was known the builders that already hold such contracts could copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Eros Ship-Planetoid: A giant cylinder-shaped spacecraft so large it passes for a small asteroid.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Eros Ship-Planetoid

The Great Illusion, Will Garth · 1938

A giant cylinder-shaped spacecraft so large it passes for a small asteroid.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A vessel the size of a small world carrying a whole society is an enormous building project.

Who is paid. Only a government could fund it, and the big shipbuilders and contractors already trusted with such work would be paid.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Asteroid Prison: A jail built on a small rocky body with nothing else on it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Asteroid Prison

One Against The Legion, Jack Williamson · 1939

A jail built on a small rocky body with nothing else on it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A jail on a bare rock is a costly way to do what prisons on the ground already do.

Who is paid. Only a government runs prisons, and the contractors that already build and supply them would be paid.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Electrono-Mirror: A reflector that concentrates sunlight on another world to reshape its climate.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electrono-Mirror

The Day We Celebrate, Nelson S. Bond · 1941

A reflector that concentrates sunlight on another world to reshape its climate.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Giving a whole world air and a climate people can live in would open new land for a large share of humanity.

Who is paid. Only a government could fund work on a whole world, and the large engineering firms that already hold such contracts would be paid to do it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Terraforming: Reshaping a whole planet's surface, air and ecosystems until it resembles Earth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Terraforming

Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942

Reshaping a whole planet's surface, air and ecosystems until it resembles Earth.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Giving a whole world air and a climate people can live in would open new land for a large share of humanity.

Who is paid. Only a government could fund work on a whole world, and the large engineering firms that already hold such contracts would be paid to do it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hollow Asteroid: An asteroid with its interior dug out so people can live inside it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hollow Asteroid

Juke Box Asteroid, Joseph Farrell · 1944

An asteroid with its interior dug out so people can live inside it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A place for many people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.

Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Star Base: An outpost placed at a strategic point between the stars.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Star Base

Star Base X, R.M. Williams · 1944

An outpost placed at a strategic point between the stars.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An outpost at a strategic point between the stars is a very large building project.

Who is paid. A strategic outpost is assumed to be military, so a government pays, and the big builders that already hold defence and space contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Star Travel: Voyages from our solar system to other stars.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Star Travel

Forgotten World, Edmond Hamilton · 1946

Voyages from our solar system to other stars.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Voyages to other stars are the same service as travel between worlds, a transport industry of its own for those who go and not a change for most people.

Who is paid. Carriers buy the ships and sell the passage, assumed here as with travel between worlds, and since ships can be copied the builders and carriers that already own fleets and ports collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Ark: A giant vessel that carries a whole population across space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Ark

Decision Illogical, N.B. Wilkinson · 1948

A giant vessel that carries a whole population across space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A vessel carrying a whole population on a voyage of many lifetimes is an enormous building project.

Who is paid. Only a government could fund it, and the big shipbuilders and contractors already trusted with such work would be paid.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Star Drive: An engine powerful enough to carry a ship between the stars.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Star Drive

Genius, Poul Anderson · 1948

An engine powerful enough to carry a ship between the stars.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Travel to other stars would open them to trade and settlement, a transport industry of its own; it is a change for those who go, not for most people.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for the drive, and once a firm had built it others could too, so established shipbuilders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Earthport: A colossal launch tower rising from the ground to the top of the sky.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Earthport

The Ballad of Lost C'Mell, Cordwainer Smith · 1950

A colossal launch tower rising from the ground to the top of the sky.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A lift from the ground to orbit would slash the cost of reaching space for every firm that uses it.

Who is paid. Shippers pay to send cargo up, and since another line could be built once the first was shown to work, the gain is assumed to go to the large builders and the holders of the few good ground sites.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mass-Conversion Ship: A spacecraft powered by turning matter completely into energy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mass-Conversion Ship

Farmer in the Sky, Robert Heinlein · 1950

A spacecraft powered by turning matter completely into energy.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A working ship that carries people and cargo between worlds is the base of a whole transport industry.

Who is paid. Carriers and other firms working in space buy ships, and since a second yard could build the same craft the established shipbuilders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sun Dome: A warm, brightly lit shelter where settlers on a rain-soaked world can dry off.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sun Dome

The Illustrated Man, Ray Bradbury · 1951

A warm, brightly lit shelter where settlers on a rain-soaked world can dry off.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A warm dry shelter is a local comfort for settlers on a rain-soaked world.

Who is paid. The shelters are assumed to be public refuges open to any settler, so a government pays, and ordinary building firms supply them.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Trantor: A world whose whole surface is one continuous built-up metropolis.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Trantor

Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1951

A world whose whole surface is one continuous built-up metropolis.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A world covered from end to end by city is a settlement at the largest scale, an enormous building project.

Who is paid. Residents and shopkeepers each pay for their own space in open air, as in any city, and the developers, builders and landowners already there collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Stardrive: An engine that quickly pushes a ship almost to light speed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stardrive

Childhood's End, Arthur C. Clarke · 1953

An engine that quickly pushes a ship almost to light speed.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An engine that quickly reaches almost the speed of light would open other stars to trade and settlement, a transport industry of its own; it is a change for those who go, not for most people.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for the drive, and once a firm had built it others could too, so established shipbuilders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Torchship: A spacecraft that can keep up hard thrust for long periods, cutting travel times.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Torchship

Sky Lift, Robert Heinlein · 1953

A spacecraft that can keep up hard thrust for long periods, cutting travel times.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A ship that can keep up hard thrust for long periods would cut travel times between worlds, a transport industry of its own.

Who is paid. Carriers and expedition firms buy ships, and many yards could build them once shown how, so established vehicle builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Commute Ship: A spacecraft that carries workers back and forth each day between Earth and jobs on other planets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Commute Ship

Sales Pitch, Philip K. Dick · 1954

A spacecraft that carries workers back and forth each day between Earth and jobs on other planets.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Daily travel to work on other planets would change where many people can hold jobs.

Who is paid. The carrier buys the ship and workers buy fares from it, as with a liner, and since the ships could be copied the builders and carriers that already own fleets and ports collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spacelanes Traffic Jam: Congested routes of everyday travellers commuting between worlds by spacecraft.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spacelanes Traffic Jam

Sales Pitch, Philip K. Dick · 1954

Congested routes of everyday travellers commuting between worlds by spacecraft.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is an event, crowded routes, not a product; the commuter craft are judged elsewhere.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Generation Ship: A vast spacecraft on which a whole community lives and raises children during a voyage lasting generations.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Generation Ship

Star Ship, E.C. Tubb · 1955

A vast spacecraft on which a whole community lives and raises children during a voyage lasting generations.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A ship that carries a whole community for generations is a vast building job, but a rare one.

Who is paid. Only a government could fund a voyage with no return, and the big shipbuilders that already hold public contracts would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Build A Planet With Asteroids: Collecting enough of the solar system's asteroids to assemble a new world from the pieces.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Build A Planet With Asteroids

And Then the Town Took Off, Richard Wilson · 1958

Collecting enough of the solar system's asteroids to assemble a new world from the pieces.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A new world to live on would add living room for a large share of humanity.

Who is paid. No private buyer could fund a world, so a government pays and the large builders that already hold public works contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Skew-Flip Turnover: A manoeuvre where a constantly thrusting ship turns around at the midpoint to start braking for arrival.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Skew-Flip Turnover

Have Space Suit - Will Travel, Robert Heinlein · 1958

A manoeuvre where a constantly thrusting ship turns around at the midpoint to start braking for arrival.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a word or a way of doing things that needs no new equipment, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ramscoop: A starship that gathers interstellar gas with a vast magnetic field and burns it for propulsion.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ramscoop

World of Ptavvs, Larry Niven · 1965

A starship that gathers interstellar gas with a vast magnetic field and burns it for propulsion.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A starship that gathers its fuel as it flies would found a transport industry between the stars.

Who is paid. Carriers and expedition firms buy ships, and many yards could build them once shown how, so established vehicle builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ramrobot: An uncrewed interstellar probe that scoops up hydrogen to power itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ramrobot

The Ethics of Madness, Larry Niven · 1967

An uncrewed interstellar probe that scoops up hydrogen to power itself.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An uncrewed probe sent to another star gathers knowledge, which is valuable but which nobody buys as a product.

Who is paid. The findings cannot be charged for, so a government pays, and the builders that already hold science contracts supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Slowboat: A sub-light ship that carries people between stars over long voyages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Slowboat

The Ethics of Madness, Larry Niven · 1967

A sub-light ship that carries people between stars over long voyages.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A slow ship carrying people between stars is an enormous building project, assumed here to carry settlers and not paying passengers.

Who is paid. Only a government could fund a voyage with no return for so long, and the big shipbuilders and contractors already trusted with such work would be paid.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Messagecraft: A robotic spacecraft that relays messages as part of a network between stars.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Messagecraft

The Faithful Messenger, George Scithers · 1969

A robotic spacecraft that relays messages as part of a network between stars.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A network that carries messages between stars would be the only link between settled worlds, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Those who send messages pay the network, and since others could build such craft the gain goes to whoever already runs the relays.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Electromagnetic Cannon: Rim-mounted launchers that help ships land on a fast-spinning megastructure.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electromagnetic Cannon

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

Rim-mounted launchers that help ships land on a fast-spinning megastructure.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Unlike a launch track open to all cargo, this is a landing aid built into a lone giant structure.

Who is paid. Whoever pays for the great structure pays for this, assumed to be a government, and its established builders supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Kemplerer (Klemperer) Rosette: An arrangement of worlds circling a shared empty centre with no sun.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Kemplerer (Klemperer) Rosette

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

An arrangement of worlds circling a shared empty centre with no sun.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. As described it is a layout of worlds, not a thing made or sold; if the story means the worlds were moved into place, it would be judged as a built world instead.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Shadow Square: Giant sunshades orbiting a star to create day and night on the world below.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Shadow Square

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

Giant sunshades orbiting a star to create day and night on the world below.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Shades that give a built world day and night are a part of that giant structure, not a product of their own.

Who is paid. Whoever pays for the great structure pays for this, assumed to be a government, and its established builders supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ram Field: A field that sweeps up interstellar hydrogen to fuel a starship's engine.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ram Field

Protector, Larry Niven · 1973

A field that sweeps up interstellar hydrogen to fuel a starship's engine.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A field that gathers fuel from the space between stars would free a starship from carrying its own, changing the cost of the longest voyages.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay, and once the engine was shown to work others could build it, so established engine builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Slowboat: A sub-light starship used to settle distant worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Slowboat

Protector, Larry Niven · 1973

A sub-light starship used to settle distant worlds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A slow ship built to settle distant worlds is an enormous building project.

Who is paid. Only a government could fund a voyage with no return for so long, and the big shipbuilders and contractors already trusted with such work would be paid.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Atmosphere Control: Ongoing management keeping the air of a newly engineered planet breathable.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atmosphere Control

The Mote in God's Eye, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1974

Ongoing management keeping the air of a newly engineered planet breathable.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Giving a whole world air and a climate people can live in would open new land for a large share of humanity.

Who is paid. Only a government could fund work on a whole world, and the large engineering firms that already hold such contracts would be paid to do it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Harvesting Saturn's Rings: Extracting material from a giant planet's rings for industry.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Harvesting Saturn's Rings

The Computer Connection, Alfred Bester · 1974

Extracting material from a giant planet's rings for industry.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Materials taken from other worlds and from loose rock in space would feed an industry of their own.

Who is paid. Firms that need the material pay for it, and since others could dig the same way the gain goes to those who already own the ships and claims.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Biological Package Probe: A probe carrying living material; the source gives few details.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Biological Package Probe

A World Out of Time, Larry Niven · 1976

A probe carrying living material; the source gives few details.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A probe carrying living material is assumed to be a rare science or seeding mission.

Who is paid. Nobody could be charged for such a mission, so a government pays the probe builders that already hold such contracts.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Bussard Ramjet: A starship engine that gathers fuel from interstellar gas using magnetic fields.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bussard Ramjet

A World Out of Time, Larry Niven · 1976

A starship engine that gathers fuel from interstellar gas using magnetic fields.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An engine that gathers its fuel on the way would make travel to other stars possible.

Who is paid. An engine is bought by whoever runs the ship, assumed here to be carriers as with other drives, and established engine builders could copy it once it worked.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Oort Cloud Processor: A vast alien vessel that converts icy outer-system material into food.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Oort Cloud Processor

Beyond the Blue Event Horizon, Frederik Pohl · 1980

A vast alien vessel that converts icy outer-system material into food.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Food made from ice with no fields at all is the same promise as any food factory, and would feed a large share of humanity.

Who is paid. What is sold is food, so people are assumed to pay in the end, and once such a plant worked others could build their own, so the firms that already own ships and food plants collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Scooter: An engineered crawling organism set to work reshaping the surface of an outer-planet moon.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Scooter

Against Infinity, Gregory Benford · 1983

An engineered crawling organism set to work reshaping the surface of an outer-planet moon.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A creature that reshapes the surface of a moon by itself would change the cost of preparing a world for people.

Who is paid. Remaking a moon is a public work a government pays for, and a creature that breeds can be raised by others once any stock exists, so the firms that already win such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Interstellar Laser Propulsion System: Starships pushed toward other stars by giant lasers based near home shining on their sails.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Interstellar Laser Propulsion System

Rocheworld, Robert Forward · 1985

Starships pushed toward other stars by giant lasers based near home shining on their sails.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Pushing ships with light from home would let them reach other stars without carrying fuel, opening a transport industry of its own.

Who is paid. Whoever runs the ships pays for the push, assumed here to be carriers, and others could build such lasers, so the owners of the power and sites collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Treeship: A gigantic living tree cultivated to serve as a starship.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Treeship

Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989

A gigantic living tree cultivated to serve as a starship.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A ship that grows by itself would found a transport industry as other ships would.

Who is paid. Carriers buy it, and a tree sets seed, so once such ships exist other growers could raise them and the established shipbuilders and carriers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Seeder Ramship: An interstellar ship that travels between stars and reshapes planets so people can live there.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Seeder Ramship

Rammer, Larry Niven · 1991

An interstellar ship that travels between stars and reshapes planets so people can live there.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Giving a whole world air and a climate people can live in would open new land for a large share of humanity.

Who is paid. Only a government could fund work on a whole world, and the large engineering firms that already hold such contracts would be paid to do it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of D-9 Motherspinner: A giant bioengineered spider that spins large structures in orbit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

D-9 Motherspinner

The Golden Globe, John Varley · 1998

A giant bioengineered spider that spins large structures in orbit.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A creature that spins large structures in orbit would change the cost of building in space.

Who is paid. Builders in space pay for its work, and a creature that breeds can be raised by others once any stock exists, so the established space builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Anemopter: An aircraft designed to cruise inside the thick air of a gas giant world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Anemopter

Finisterra, David Moles · 2007

An aircraft designed to cruise inside the thick air of a gas giant world.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An aircraft for the skies of a giant planet serves a few expeditions, a niche.

Who is paid. No user is named, so it is assumed that firms working on other worlds buy it like other working gear, and established aircraft builders could all make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Computing, AI and virtual worlds · 3
Illustration of Metal Calculator Planet: A whole world encased in miles of machinery under a metal shell, working as one giant computer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Metal Calculator Planet

Limiting Factor, Clifford Simak · 1949

A whole world encased in miles of machinery under a metal shell, working as one giant computer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. One computer the size of a world could answer questions no smaller machine could, though it serves whoever owns it and not everyone.

Who is paid. I assume only a government could pay for such a work, and since size alone does not stop others building one the firms that already build large works for governments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Discorporate Sector: A digital realm where the minds of the dead continue to exist.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Discorporate Sector

Babel-17, Samuel R. Delany · 1966

A digital realm where the minds of the dead continue to exist.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Going on existing after death is something nearly everyone would want above almost anything else.

Who is paid. People would pay all they could, and I assume a mind once kept running by one firm cannot easily be moved to another, so the first to offer it holds its customers.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Computronium: Matter arranged throughout to act as the densest possible computer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Computronium

Accelerando, Charles Stross · 2005

Matter arranged throughout to act as the densest possible computer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The densest computer that matter allows would change the cost of all computing.

Who is paid. Firms that need computing pay, and I assume others could learn to make such matter in time, so the firms that already sell computing to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Communication, media and displays · 2
Illustration of Venus Equilateral Relay Station: A hollowed space rock turned into a hub that passes messages among planets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Venus Equilateral Relay Station

QRM - Interplanetary, George O. Smith · 1942

A hollowed space rock turned into a hub that passes messages among planets.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A hub that passes messages among the planets would be the telegraph exchange of a settled solar system, assuming many people live out there.

Who is paid. Firms trading between worlds pay by the message, the description does not say the spot is the only one that would serve, so a rival hub could be built, and the carriers and fleet owners who already hold the home networks and the ships to tend a station collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Babel Fish: A small creature worn in the ear that translates any spoken language for its host.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Babel Fish

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams · 1979

A small creature worn in the ear that translates any spoken language for its host.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Understanding any spoken language at once would remove a cost from travel, trade and every job done across borders.

Who is paid. People buy one each, and since it is a creature that breeds, anyone can raise and sell them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Robotics and automation · 5
Illustration of Automatic City: A self-maintaining, self-defending city built to endure for ages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automatic City

The Man in the Maze, Robert Silverberg · 1969

A self-maintaining, self-defending city built to endure for ages.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A city that repairs and defends itself for ages would be a great public work, judged as built for one people only.

Who is paid. A government would pay for it, and the large builders that already win public works contracts would be paid to raise it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Boppers: Self-replicating robots that answer to no human rules.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Boppers

Wetware, Rudy Rucker · 1988

Self-replicating robots that answer to no human rules.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Robots that copy themselves and obey no human rules are a rival people, not a product anyone can buy or use.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ditto Blank: A blank disposable humanoid body waiting to receive a copied human personality.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ditto Blank

Kiln People, David Brin · 2002

A blank disposable humanoid body waiting to receive a copied human personality.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A spare body that takes a copy of its owner would let most people be in several places at once for work and errands.

Who is paid. People buy the blanks for themselves, and assuming others could learn to make them the large makers with factories and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Poppins: A humanoid body carrying a copied childcare expert's personality to look after children.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Poppins

Kiln People, David Brin · 2002

A humanoid body carrying a copied childcare expert's personality to look after children.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Expert care for children at home would be worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Families buy it, and since they are assumed to trust only known names with their children the established makers with strong brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Synthetic Sleeve: A manufactured body that a digitised person can be loaded into.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Synthetic Sleeve

Altered Carbon, Richard Morgan · 2003

A manufactured body that a digitised person can be loaded into.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A made body that a stored person can be loaded into would let people outlive their first body, which changes how most people live; it is assumed the loading works.

Who is paid. People buy bodies for themselves, and since many could grow or build them the firms with factories and trusted names collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Medicine, biotech and longevity · 28
Illustration of Suspended Animation (Frigorific Process): Freezing a living person so the body can be stored for years and later revived.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Suspended Animation (Frigorific Process)

The Senator's Daughter, Edward Page Mitchell · 1879

Freezing a living person so the body can be stored for years and later revived.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Putting people safely into long dormancy would make very long journeys possible and give hospitals time to treat the gravely ill.

Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Monsters Manufactured: Surgically remaking animals so their bodies and minds approach human form.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Monsters Manufactured

The Island of Dr. Moreau, H.G. Wells · 1896

Surgically remaking animals so their bodies and minds approach human form.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. The description gives the remade animals no use that a buyer would pay for, unlike made creatures bred for work or as servants, so there is nothing to price.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Vivification: Keeping a body dormant at normal warmth for centuries and then bringing it back to life.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vivification

In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897

Keeping a body dormant at normal warmth for centuries and then bringing it back to life.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Putting people safely into long dormancy would make very long journeys possible and give hospitals time to treat the gravely ill.

Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Human Blood Chlorophyll: Swapping parts of a person's bloodstream for the green pigment plants use to capture sunlight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Human Blood Chlorophyll

The Murgatroyd Experiment, S.P. Meek · 1929

Swapping parts of a person's bloodstream for the green pigment plants use to capture sunlight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The story promises only a little energy from sunlight, which is a curiosity beside ordinary food.

Who is paid. I assumed people buy it for themselves from clinics; the method could be copied, so clinics already offering such treatments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Evolution Machine: A machine that speeds up biological evolution enormously, pushing an organism through ages of change in hours.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Evolution Machine

The Man Who Evolved, Edmond Hamilton · 1931

A machine that speeds up biological evolution enormously, pushing an organism through ages of change in hours.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Speeding up evolution would let breeders and laboratories get new living things quickly.

Who is paid. I assumed breeders and laboratories buy it; once the machine existed other equipment makers could copy it, so established laboratory suppliers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Homorium: A facility that grows a person from birth to adulthood within twelve months.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Homorium

The Last Men, Frank Belknap Long, Jr. · 1934

A facility that grows a person from birth to adulthood within twelve months.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Growing a person to adulthood very quickly would let a state fill its ranks at will, which no family would want for a child.

Who is paid. I assumed a government runs it, since the description does not say who would; the method could be copied, so the laboratories and suppliers serving it collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Shoggoths: Engineered shapeshifting creatures bred to do heavy work.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Shoggoths

At the Mountains of Madness, H.P. Lovecraft · 1936

Engineered shapeshifting creatures bred to do heavy work.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Creatures bred for heavy work would change the costs of building, mining and hauling.

Who is paid. Firms would buy them for labour, and living stock can be bred on by whoever holds some, so established breeders and suppliers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Eternity Drug: A medicine that puts someone into a dormant sleep lasting decades, used to survive very long voyages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Eternity Drug

Far Centaurus, A.E. van Vogt · 1944

A medicine that puts someone into a dormant sleep lasting decades, used to survive very long voyages.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Sleeping through a very long voyage would make such journeys possible, as with other forms of long dormancy.

Who is paid. I assumed carriers buy it for their crews; unlike a sleep chamber this is a drug, which is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Underpeople: Animals engineered into humanlike bodies and minds to serve as a lower social caste.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Underpeople

The Ballad of Lost C'Mell, Cordwainer Smith · 1950

Animals engineered into humanlike bodies and minds to serve as a lower social caste.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The name is of the people, so the thing judged is the making of servants from animals, which would give a state its workforce to order, though few societies would allow it.

Who is paid. I assumed the state runs the making, as with other ways of turning out people to order; the method could be copied, so the laboratories and suppliers serving it collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ontogenetic Adaptation: An instant change to a person's biology that lets them digest plants from other worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ontogenetic Adaptation

The End of the Line, James Schmitz · 1951

An instant change to a person's biology that lets them digest plants from other worlds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Fitting settlers to eat local plants serves a narrow group; judged as the treatment that makes the change.

Who is paid. Settlement ventures pay, and established medical firms collect since others could offer the same treatment.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Suspensine: A drug that slows the body so much a person can briefly endure exposure to vacuum.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Suspensine

Duel on Syrtis, Poul Anderson · 1951

A drug that slows the body so much a person can briefly endure exposure to vacuum.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It serves only people who work in space, which is a niche.

Who is paid. I assumed employers and space carriers buy it for their crews; a new drug is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what little is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Panatrope: Reshaping people's heredity so their descendants can live on hostile alien worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Panatrope

Surface Tension, James Blish · 1952

Reshaping people's heredity so their descendants can live on hostile alien worlds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Shaping settlers for hostile worlds would be worth a whole programme of settlement.

Who is paid. A government pays because it seeds whole peoples, unlike a treatment for a few settlers, and its usual contractors collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Scientific Reincarnation: Moving a person's mind into a fresh, healthy body.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Scientific Reincarnation

Lord of Light, Roger Zelazny · 1967

Moving a person's mind into a fresh, healthy body.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A fresh healthy body for the same mind answers the deepest need there is, and nearly everyone would want it.

Who is paid. People would pay for themselves; I assumed it is a procedure other clinics could learn and not a protected drug, so established hospitals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cold-Pac Bin: A coffin-like chamber that keeps the recently dead in a suspended, semi-conscious state.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cold-Pac Bin

Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A coffin-like chamber that keeps the recently dead in a suspended, semi-conscious state.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Letting families go on speaking with the newly dead is something a great many would pay for.

Who is paid. Families would pay for the keeping, and I assumed the chambers can be copied, so established funeral firms with premises and trust collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Face Dancer: People engineered to change their appearance and impersonate others.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Face Dancer

Dune Messiah, Frank Herbert · 1969

People engineered to change their appearance and impersonate others.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the engineering that lets a person change appearance and pass as someone else, which serves a narrow trade in spying.

Who is paid. I assumed spy services are the buyers, so a government pays; the description does not say the method is a secret, so the firms that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Moratorium: A facility that stores the dead cold while keeping their minds dimly active.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Moratorium

Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A facility that stores the dead cold while keeping their minds dimly active.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Keeping the dead within reach of their families would be worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Families pay for the keeping, and firms that already run death care and cold storage collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Placental Decanters: Engineered flawless human bodies fitted with implants so others can operate them remotely.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Placental Decanters

The Girl Who Was Plugged In, James Tiptree, Jr. · 1974

Engineered flawless human bodies fitted with implants so others can operate them remotely.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Operated bodies are a banned niche; assumed a few firms use them for promotion.

Who is paid. Firms pay, and established makers of implants collect since the fittings can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Empty Man: A living body whose original personality has been erased, shown in the story as a punishment.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Empty Man

A World Out of Time, Larry Niven · 1976

A living body whose original personality has been erased, shown in the story as a punishment.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.

Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Young-Forever: A treatment for endless youth paired with a fix for the resulting population growth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Young-Forever

A World Out of Time, Larry Niven · 1976

A treatment for endless youth paired with a fix for the resulting population growth.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Holding off old age meets about the deepest need there is, and nearly everyone alive would want it.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and I assumed it is a new medicine protected from copying for a long while, so its maker keeps much of the gain.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Javelin: A person surgically and genetically adapted to live comfortably in open space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Javelin

The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977

A person surgically and genetically adapted to live comfortably in open space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the surgery and gene work that fit a body for open space, which serves the few who work there.

Who is paid. I assumed firms working in space pay for their crews; other surgeons and laboratories could learn the work, so established clinics collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Symb: A partner organism living with its human host and supplying the energy that keeps them alive.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Symb

The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977

A partner organism living with its human host and supplying the energy that keeps them alive.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. I assumed it serves the few people who choose to live in open space, which is a niche.

Who is paid. The people who wear it would pay, and a living partner can be bred on by others, so established breeders and suppliers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Boosterspice: A compound that lets people keep living for centuries, perhaps without end.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Boosterspice

Ringworld Engineers, Larry Niven · 1980

A compound that lets people keep living for centuries, perhaps without end.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Holding off old age meets about the deepest need there is, and nearly everyone alive would want it.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and a new medicine is protected from copying for a long while, so its maker keeps much of the gain.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sentient Room: A chamber built of living tissue governed by a single person's mind.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sentient Room

Schismatrix, Bruce Sterling · 1985

A chamber built of living tissue governed by a single person's mind.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A living room answering to one mind is a curiosity; I assumed a few wealthy owners would want one.

Who is paid. The owner would pay, and living tissue can be grown on by others, so established growers of such tissue collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Genejack: A genetically engineered human bred for manual labour, portrayed critically in the game.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Genejack

Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999

A genetically engineered human bred for manual labour, portrayed critically in the game.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the breeding of people made for labour, which would give a state its workforce to order, though few societies would allow it.

Who is paid. I assumed the state runs the breeding, as with other ways of turning out people to order; the method could be copied, so the laboratories and suppliers serving it collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Homo Superior: A new branch of humanity produced by extreme genetic engineering.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Homo Superior

Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999

A new branch of humanity produced by extreme genetic engineering.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the engineering of a child's genes before birth, which many parents would pay dearly for.

Who is paid. I assumed parents pay; the methods could be copied, so established fertility clinics collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Recycler: A surgically fitted implant that lets a diver breathe by drawing oxygen from the surrounding ocean.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Recycler

Starfish, Peter Watts · 1999

A surgically fitted implant that lets a diver breathe by drawing oxygen from the surrounding ocean.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It serves only people who work under the sea, which is a niche.

Who is paid. I assumed diving and undersea firms pay to fit their workers; other makers could copy the implant, so established makers of medical devices collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hyperpig: A hybrid creature blending pig and human genes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hyperpig

Redemption Ark, Alastair Reynolds · 2002

A hybrid creature blending pig and human genes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. The description gives the creature no use that a buyer would pay for, unlike made creatures bred for work, organs or company, so there is nothing to price.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of KloraDerm: Engineered human skin that photosynthesises, letting the body draw some energy from sunlight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

KloraDerm

Old Man's War, John Scalzi · 2005

Engineered human skin that photosynthesises, letting the body draw some energy from sunlight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The story promises only a little energy from sunlight, which is a curiosity beside ordinary food.

Who is paid. I assumed people buy it for themselves from clinics; the method could be copied, so clinics already offering such treatments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Mind and neurotechnology · 24
Illustration of Brain Placed In Metal Body: A living human brain kept alive by machinery and housed inside a mechanical body it controls.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Brain Placed In Metal Body

The Comet Doom, Edmond Hamilton · 1929

A living human brain kept alive by machinery and housed inside a mechanical body it controls.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine body for a living brain would give the dying more years, though few would choose such a life.

Who is paid. The dying and their families would pay, and hospitals and makers of medical machinery could copy it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Iron Man Robot With Human Brain: A giant machine body driven by a living human brain kept in a tank inside it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Iron Man Robot With Human Brain

Iron Man, Paul Ernst · 1933

A giant machine body driven by a living human brain kept in a tank inside it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A giant machine driven by a living brain is above all an engine of war or heavy work.

Who is paid. Unlike the plain brain in a metal body, I assumed an army buys this giant, and the firms that already build its war machines could copy it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot With Human's Brain: A living human brain housed inside a mechanical body.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot With Human's Brain

Revenge of the Robot, Otis Adelbert Kline · 1936

A living human brain housed inside a mechanical body.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A mechanical body for a living brain would be an industry of its own for the dying and the badly injured.

Who is paid. People would pay to go on living this way, and the hospitals and makers of bodies that already have the surgeons and workshops would collect, since the method itself can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Teaching Machine: A headset that loads vast knowledge straight into the wearer's brain.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Teaching Machine

The Return of the Murians, Nat Schachner · 1936

A headset that loads vast knowledge straight into the wearer's brain.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Loading great stores of knowledge straight into the brain would replace years of schooling and training for most people.

Who is paid. Learners and families would pay for it themselves, and once a first firm had built it others could copy it and many could supply the lessons, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Preserved Brains: Keeping a brain alive outside the body and exchanging messages with it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Preserved Brains

Murder in the Void, Edmond Hamilton · 1938

Keeping a brain alive outside the body and exchanging messages with it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Keeping a brain alive and able to talk after the body fails would be an industry of its own for the dying.

Who is paid. People would pay to go on living this way, and the hospitals that already have the surgeons and life-support wards would collect, since the method could be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Group Ego: Merges several people's bodies under one shared consciousness that thinks and acts as a single self.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Group Ego

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

Merges several people's bodies under one shared consciousness that thinks and acts as a single self.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. I took this to be a merged way of being for a group of people, with no made device named, so not a thing that can be made and sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mind-Parasite: A fictional organism in the story that seizes control of a host's mind.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mind-Parasite

Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949

A fictional organism in the story that seizes control of a host's mind.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a creature that preys on people, a hazard and not something made to be sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is made or sold here, so there is no buyer and no seller.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Hive-Mind: Many individuals linked so they think as a single shared mind.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hive-Mind

Second Night of Summer, James Schmitz · 1950

Many individuals linked so they think as a single shared mind.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. I took this to be a shared way of being for many minds, with no made device named, so not a thing that can be made and sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Refurbished Nervous System: Surgery that rebuilds a person's nerves so they can move several times faster than normal.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Refurbished Nervous System

The Stars My Destination, Alfred Bester · 1956

Surgery that rebuilds a person's nerves so they can move several times faster than normal.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Moving many times faster than normal would be worth an industry of its own to fighters, athletes and manual workers.

Who is paid. I assume people buy the surgery for themselves, though armies would want it too, and the hospitals that already have the surgeons would collect since the operation could be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Accelerated Schooling: Loads knowledge straight into a learner's brain instead of teaching through study.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Accelerated Schooling

Cities in Flight, James Blish · 1957

Loads knowledge straight into a learner's brain instead of teaching through study.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Putting knowledge straight into the brain would replace years of schooling and training for most people.

Who is paid. Families and learners would pay for it themselves, and once one firm had built the gear others could copy it and many could write the lessons, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Discorporaphone: A device for talking with minds of the dead stored electronically.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Discorporaphone

Babel-17, Samuel R. Delany · 1966

A device for talking with minds of the dead stored electronically.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Talking with the stored minds of the dead is precious to the bereaved, but the worth lies in storing the mind, and this is only the telephone to it.

Who is paid. Families would pay, and I assumed the stored minds already exist, so the talking device alone is easy to copy and no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mnemonic Flutter System (Pulse-Sychronizer): A device that writes the contents of a book directly into a reader's memory.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mnemonic Flutter System (Pulse-Sychronizer)

Dune Messiah, Frank Herbert · 1969

A device that writes the contents of a book directly into a reader's memory.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Writing a book straight into memory would replace years of study for most people.

Who is paid. Learners and families would pay for it themselves, and once a first firm had built it others could copy it and many could supply the lessons, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Protophason Amplifier: Equipment that picks up and boosts faint brain signals from people kept in cold storage.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Protophason Amplifier

Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969

Equipment that picks up and boosts faint brain signals from people kept in cold storage.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Talking with relatives kept in cold storage is a comfort for the bereaved and little more.

Who is paid. Families would pay to hear from their own kin, and the amplifier could be copied by many makers, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Remote-Control Slavery: A fictional means of remotely dominating other creatures' minds, shown as coercion.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Remote-Control Slavery

The Man in the Maze, Robert Silverberg · 1969

A fictional means of remotely dominating other creatures' minds, shown as coercion.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.

Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of RNA Shots: Injections made from a skilled person's tissue that pass on their knowledge.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

RNA Shots

A World Out of Time, Larry Niven · 1976

Injections made from a skilled person's tissue that pass on their knowledge.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Taking on a skilled person's knowledge by injection would replace years of schooling and training for most people.

Who is paid. Learners would pay for the shots themselves, and assuming the tissue can be grown in bulk many makers could supply them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Memory Recording: Capturing the full content of a person's mind and life experience for storage.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Memory Recording

The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977

Capturing the full content of a person's mind and life experience for storage.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Keeping a copy of a mind so the person can be brought back would take away the finality of death for anyone who could have it.

Who is paid. People would pay for themselves and their families, and once one firm had done it others could, so the hospitals and medical firms people already trust would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Taprisiot Monitor Bead: An ingestible device that captures and relays a person's thoughts for a set period.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Taprisiot Monitor Bead

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

An ingestible device that captures and relays a person's thoughts for a set period.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Capturing and passing on your own thoughts for a while is a convenience for reports and records.

Who is paid. It is swallowed, so I assume the wearer is willing and buys it; many makers could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ixian Probe: A device that examines brain tissue finely enough to reveal stored memories.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ixian Probe

Heretics of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1984

A device that examines brain tissue finely enough to reveal stored memories.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Pulling memories out of an unwilling head would change how crimes are solved and secrets are kept.

Who is paid. A probe of brain tissue is done to a subject, so I assumed the buyers are police, courts and spy services, and the firms that already supply them could copy the machine and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Shere: A drug in the story that protects a person's memories from being extracted, even after death.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Shere

Heretics of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1984

A drug in the story that protects a person's memories from being extracted, even after death.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It only matters to people who hold secrets someone would probe for.

Who is paid. The keeper of the secret takes it willingly, so I assume people buy it for themselves, and a drug whose recipe is known can be made by many, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Chiphead: A person whose natural brain has been replaced in function by an implanted machine.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chiphead

Nanotime, Bart Kosko · 1987

A person whose natural brain has been replaced in function by an implanted machine.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. This names a person, but the implant behind it, a machine doing the work of a brain, would restore people whose brains had failed.

Who is paid. I judged the implant: patients and their families would pay, and the makers of medical implants could copy it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Emblok: A machine that loads memories into a regrown brain like copying files.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Emblok

Earth Made of Glass, John Barnes · 1998

A machine that loads memories into a regrown brain like copying files.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Loading a stored mind into a regrown brain is the restoring step of bringing a person back, which takes away the finality of death.

Who is paid. People would pay for themselves and their families, and once one firm had done it others could, so the hospitals and medical firms people already trust would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Imprint (A Ditto Blank): Copying a person's mind onto a temporary clay-like duplicate body.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Imprint (A Ditto Blank)

Kiln People, David Brin · 2002

Copying a person's mind onto a temporary clay-like duplicate body.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Sending copies of yourself out to do the day's work would change how most people work and live.

Who is paid. People would buy blank bodies again and again, and once the copying was known the factories able to turn out blanks in bulk would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cortical Stack: A spinal implant that holds a stored copy of someone's mind so they can be restored.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cortical Stack

Altered Carbon, Richard Morgan · 2003

A spinal implant that holds a stored copy of someone's mind so they can be restored.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Keeping a copy of a mind so the person can be brought back would take away the finality of death for anyone who could have it.

Who is paid. People would pay for themselves and their families, and once one firm had done it others could, so the hospitals and medical firms people already trust would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of DC Mini: A device through which a psychotherapist can step inside a patient's dreams.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

DC Mini

Paprika, Satoshi Kon · 2007

A device through which a psychotherapist can step inside a patient's dreams.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A therapist who can enter and shape dreams could treat troubles of the mind that talk alone does not reach.

Who is paid. Clinics and therapists would buy the machine, and the makers of medical equipment who already sell to them could copy it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Transport and mobility · 8
Illustration of Submarine Tube: Passenger capsules shot through a pipeline laid beneath the ocean between continents.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Submarine Tube

An Express of the Future, Michel Verne · 1895

Passenger capsules shot through a pipeline laid beneath the ocean between continents.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Fast capsules in sealed tubes would rival trains and aircraft on their routes, which changes the cost of travel between cities; this one runs under the ocean.

Who is paid. Governments pay for a public way of this size, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sub-Atlantic Tube: A tunnel beneath the ocean linking continents by the most direct route.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sub-Atlantic Tube

Ralph 124c 41 +, Hugo Gernsback · 1911

A tunnel beneath the ocean linking continents by the most direct route.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A tunnel under the ocean would link continents by land, which changes the cost of travel and trade between them.

Who is paid. Governments pay for a public way of this size, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Atoplane: A nuclear-powered aeroplane that flies very fast over huge ranges.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atoplane

The Moon of Doom, Earl L. Bell · 1928

A nuclear-powered aeroplane that flies very fast over huge ranges.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An aircraft that flies very fast with almost no limit on range would change the costs of long-distance flight.

Who is paid. Airlines and freight carriers buy the aeroplane, and it is judged as a craft, not as its power source, so the aircraft makers that already build and service fleets collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Lunar Tunnel (Human Pendulum): A shaft bored straight through the moon so a falling body swings back and forth between opposite surfaces.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lunar Tunnel (Human Pendulum)

Captive of the Crater, D.D. Sharp · 1933

A shaft bored straight through the moon so a falling body swings back and forth between opposite surfaces.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A fall through the Moon would be a quick way between its far sides for the few people living there.

Who is paid. A government pays for a boring of this size, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gravity-assisted Subway: An underground train that falls through deep tunnels to cross between continents quickly.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gravity-assisted Subway

A World Out of Time, Larry Niven · 1976

An underground train that falls through deep tunnels to cross between continents quickly.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Trains that fall through deep tunnels would cross long distances fast on little fuel, changing the costs of long-distance travel.

Who is paid. Governments pay for tunnels on this scale, and the tunnelling and railway builders that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gravity Train: An underground railway that uses falling to gain speed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gravity Train

The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977

An underground railway that uses falling to gain speed.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Trains that fall through deep tunnels would cross long distances fast on little fuel, changing the costs of long-distance travel.

Who is paid. Governments pay for tunnels on this scale, and the tunnelling and railway builders that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of General Bodies Tortoise: A living vehicle bred from reptile genes and steered through embedded electronics to carry riders.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

General Bodies Tortoise

Sparrowhawk, Thomas A. Easton · 1990

A living vehicle bred from reptile genes and steered through embedded electronics to carry riders.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A living animal bred to carry riders does a car's job more slowly, so I judge it a curiosity.

Who is paid. People buy it as they would a car, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the breeders and vehicle dealers that already hold stock, workshops and showrooms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Roachster: A living car grown from insect-like genes and driven through embedded control hardware.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Roachster

Sparrowhawk, Thomas A. Easton · 1990

A living car grown from insect-like genes and driven through embedded control hardware.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A car that is grown and not built is a curiosity beside the ordinary car unless it is much cheaper, which the description does not say.

Who is paid. People buy it as they would a car, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the breeders and vehicle dealers that already hold stock, workshops and showrooms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Energy and power · 8

Heat Transmitter

Crashing Suns, Edmond Hamilton · 1928

Collects sunlight near the sun and sends it as focused energy to distant, colder planets.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Sunlight gathered near the sun and sent to cold planets would supply whole settlements that have no other source.

Who is paid. Only governments could fund a work this size for whole settlements, and whoever builds the one station controls a supply nobody else can match.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Light Traps (Dyson Sphere): A swarm of collectors enclosing a star to harvest its energy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Light Traps (Dyson Sphere)

Star Maker, Olaf Stapledon · 1937

A swarm of collectors enclosing a star to harvest its energy.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Catching the whole output of a star would give a civilisation more energy than it could ever otherwise have.

Who is paid. Only a government could fund it, and whoever builds the one swarm controls a supply nobody else can match.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Near-Space Solar Energy Collectors: Harvests solar energy in space nearer the sun, where sunlight is far more intense.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Near-Space Solar Energy Collectors

Star Maker, Olaf Stapledon · 1937

Harvests solar energy in space nearer the sun, where sunlight is far more intense.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Collecting the stronger sunlight nearer the sun would supply whole settlements with power.

Who is paid. Only governments could fund a work this size for whole settlements, and whoever builds the one station controls a supply nobody else can match.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Solar Station Switch Room: A central control hub routing electric power to settlements across many planets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solar Station Switch Room

Doom Over Venus, Edmond Hamilton · 1940

A central control hub routing electric power to settlements across many planets.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A hub that routes power to settlements on many planets is what makes their whole supply usable.

Who is paid. Only governments could fund a work this size, and whoever builds the one hub controls a link nobody else can match.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Solar Energy Beam: A power plant close to the sun that beams energy out to distant worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solar Energy Beam

Masquerade, Clifford Simak · 1941

A power plant close to the sun that beams energy out to distant worlds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A plant near the sun sending power to distant worlds would supply whole settlements that have no other source.

Who is paid. Only governments could fund a work this size for whole settlements, and whoever builds the one station controls a supply nobody else can match.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Contraterrene Matter (Antimatter): Matter built from antiparticles, which annihilates on contact with ordinary material.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Contraterrene Matter (Antimatter)

Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942

Matter built from antiparticles, which annihilates on contact with ordinary material.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as a fuel that can be held safely, nothing would pack more energy into less weight, which is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. A substance this dangerous is assumed to be bought only by governments, and whoever can make and hold it controls something others cannot get.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Synchrophased Power Beams: Energy beams sent from several worlds and aimed together at one target.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Synchrophased Power Beams

Propagandist, Murray Leinster · 1947

Energy beams sent from several worlds and aimed together at one target.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Assuming the beams deliver power and are not a weapon, joining beams from several worlds would supply a place with no other source.

Who is paid. Only governments could fund a work this size for whole settlements, and whoever builds the one station controls a supply nobody else can match.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Soletta: Giant orbiting mirrors that concentrate sunlight onto a planet to warm and power it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Soletta

Green Mars, Kim Stanley Robinson · 1995

Giant orbiting mirrors that concentrate sunlight onto a planet to warm and power it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Mirrors that warm and light a whole planet would make it fit to settle.

Who is paid. Only a government could fund it because nobody can be charged for sunlight one by one, and whoever builds the mirrors controls them.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Materials, manufacturing and construction · 9
Illustration of Invisible Cloak: A garment that bends or masks light around the person wearing it so onlookers see straight through them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Invisible Cloak

Brigands of the Moon, Ray Cummings · 1929

A garment that bends or masks light around the person wearing it so onlookers see straight through them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. True invisibility would be worth a great deal to armies and spies, and would likely be kept from ordinary buyers.

Who is paid. Armies and spy services pay, and the firms that already hold their equipment contracts would make it once the method is known.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Invisible Cloak: A wearable covering that hides its owner from sight entirely by steering light around them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Invisible Cloak

Brigands of the Moon, Ray Cummings · 1930

A wearable covering that hides its owner from sight entirely by steering light around them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. True invisibility would be worth a great deal to armies and spies, and would likely be kept from ordinary buyers.

Who is paid. Armies and spy services pay, and the firms that already hold their equipment contracts would make it once the method is known.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Duplication Chamber: Makes an exact copy of whatever object is placed inside.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Duplication Chamber

The 4-Sided Triangle, William F. Temple · 1939

Makes an exact copy of whatever object is placed inside.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Copying any object exactly would make most goods nearly free, changing how nearly everything is made.

Who is paid. Assuming a home or shop machine, people buy it, and a machine that copies anything can copy itself, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sandtrout Glove: A glove made of living creatures that cling to the hand.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sandtrout Glove

Children of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1976

A glove made of living creatures that cling to the hand.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A living glove is a curiosity or a piece of protective wear for a few; the description names no wider use.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, I assume, and living creatures breed and spread, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Matter Compiler: A machine that assembles finished goods from individual atoms following a digital blueprint.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Matter Compiler

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

A machine that assembles finished goods from individual atoms following a digital blueprint.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Building finished goods from atoms to a plan would change how nearly everything is made.

Who is paid. Assuming a home or shop machine, people buy it and its feedstock, and a machine that makes anything can make more of itself, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Nano-Paste: Swarms of microscopic machines that turn nearby raw matter into a chosen item.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nano-Paste

Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999

Swarms of microscopic machines that turn nearby raw matter into a chosen item.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Tiny machines that turn nearby matter into any chosen item would make most goods nearly free.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, assuming it is sold for home use, and a thing that makes anything makes more of itself, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Orphids: Self-copying microscopic machines that spread across the whole planet in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Orphids

Postsingular, Rudy Rucker · 2007

Self-copying microscopic machines that spread across the whole planet in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. By the description these machines copy themselves and spread over the whole world unaided, so whatever good they do in the story reaches everyone free and there is nothing anyone would pay for.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold: unlike the make-anything machines, which someone must first buy, these arrive by themselves, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Wildcode: A wasteland made of runaway microscopic machines, a hazard in the story's setting.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wildcode

The Fractal Prince, Hannu Rajaniemi · 2012

A wasteland made of runaway microscopic machines, a hazard in the story's setting.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a wasteland of runaway tiny machines, a hazard and not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold; people avoid it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Vehicle Seeds: Packaged materials and instructions that build a complete vehicle from local raw resources.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vehicle Seeds

Killing Titan, Greg Bear · 2015

Packaged materials and instructions that build a complete vehicle from local raw resources.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A package that builds a whole vehicle from local materials would upset vehicle making and shipping wherever a finished vehicle is costly to deliver, but it makes vehicles only.

Who is paid. The description names no buyer, so I assumed the buyers are firms working far from any factory, such as mines, expeditions and settlements, because building from local raw resources matters most where a finished vehicle cannot easily be brought; and unlike the pattern machine aboard ships a seed is used up in building and is not said to make more seeds, so vehicle firms with designs and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Weapons and warfare · 11
Illustration of Needle Pipe: A weapon that fires metal splinters at nearly the speed of light.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Needle Pipe

Beyond the Stars, Ray Cummings · 1928

A weapon that fires metal splinters at nearly the speed of light.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Assuming a soldier carries it, a gun that throws splinters faster than any other still does the job guns already do.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and assuming rival makers learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Lewiston: A fictional handheld energy sidearm carried by fighters in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lewiston

Triplanetary, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1934

A fictional handheld energy sidearm carried by fighters in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Carried in the hand, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Proton Pistol (Proton Beam): A fictional handheld energy weapon used in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Proton Pistol (Proton Beam)

A Menace in Miniature, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1937

A fictional handheld energy weapon used in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A beam weapon carried in the hand does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Atom-Gun: A hand weapon that sprays out nuclear flame.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atom-Gun

Revolt on the Tenth World, Edmond Hamilton · 1940

A hand weapon that sprays out nuclear flame.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Assuming a soldier carries it, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Directrix Z9M9Z: A command vessel that coordinates the movements of an enormous war fleet in space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Directrix Z9M9Z

Gray Lensman, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1942

A command vessel that coordinates the movements of an enormous war fleet in space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Assuming wars are fought in space, warships for it would be an industry of their own.

Who is paid. Only governments field war fleets, and the few yards already able to build large spacecraft would win the orders.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Planet-Smasher: A fictional weapon capable of wrecking a whole world, used as a threat in an interplanetary conflict.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Planet-Smasher

Propagandist, Murray Leinster · 1947

A fictional weapon capable of wrecking a whole world, used as a threat in an interplanetary conflict.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A weapon that can wreck a region or a world is worth a great deal to a state as a threat that keeps others from attacking, though it feeds or houses no one.

Who is paid. Only governments pay for it, and as with nuclear arms only the handful of builders a state allows near such a weapon may make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Planet-Busting Bomb: A fictional doomsday weapon in the story capable of wiping out a whole world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Planet-Busting Bomb

Testing, J.J. Ferrat · 1956

A fictional doomsday weapon in the story capable of wiping out a whole world.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A weapon that can wreck a region or a world is worth a great deal to a state as a threat that keeps others from attacking, though it feeds or houses no one.

Who is paid. Only governments pay for it, and as with nuclear arms only the handful of builders a state allows near such a weapon may make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Assault Ship: A fictional expendable military spacecraft used to deliver troops in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Assault Ship

The Forever War, Joe Haldeman · 1974

A fictional expendable military spacecraft used to deliver troops in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Assuming wars are fought in space, warships for it would be an industry of their own.

Who is paid. Only governments field war fleets, and the few yards already able to build large spacecraft would win the orders.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mobile Suit: A towering humanoid armoured war machine piloted from inside.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mobile Suit

Mobile Suit Gundam, Yoshiyuki Tomino · 1979

A towering humanoid armoured war machine piloted from inside.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A piloted armoured war machine of that size would be a new class of weapon on the scale of tanks or warplanes.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and only the heavy arms builders with yards, factories and contracts could turn them out, though any of them could.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Satellite Ion Cannon: A fictional orbital beam weapon used for precision strikes in a war game.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Satellite Ion Cannon

Command and Conquer, Westwood Games · 1995

A fictional orbital beam weapon used for precision strikes in a war game.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A heavy beam or a weapon fired from orbit lets a state strike or defend across great distances and would take a large share of what it spends on arms.

Who is paid. Only governments pay, and the few shipyards and space builders that already hold such contracts are the ones able to deliver it, so they collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Skullgun: A fictional concealed implanted firearm carried by characters in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Skullgun

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

A fictional concealed implanted firearm carried by characters in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A weapon built into the body appeals to a few bodyguards, soldiers and enthusiasts and stays a niche.

Who is paid. Assuming it is legal to buy as in the story, individuals pay for themselves, and the clinics and surgeons already able to do such work collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Surveillance, identity and control · 1
Illustration of Planetary ID Card: A single identity credential issued to everyone living across the planets and moons of our solar system.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Planetary ID Card

Doom Over Venus, Edmond Hamilton · 1940

A single identity credential issued to everyone living across the planets and moons of our solar system.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A single identity card for everyone is useful to the authority that issues it but is only a card.

Who is paid. Whoever issues the credential pays, assumed here to be a state, and the firms that already make official papers and registers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Food, agriculture and environment · 6
Illustration of Synthetic Food Dispenser: A kitchen machine that builds any requested dish from raw chemical ingredients, atom by atom.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Synthetic Food Dispenser

Twilight, John W. Campbell · 1934

A kitchen machine that builds any requested dish from raw chemical ingredients, atom by atom.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A kitchen machine that builds any dish from raw chemicals would end both farming and cooking for most households.

Who is paid. Households buy the machine for the kitchen, and being strange does not make it hard to copy, so once it exists many firms could build it and no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Weather Integrator: Technology that steers and schedules the weather over wide areas.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Weather Integrator

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

Technology that steers and schedules the weather over wide areas.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Choosing the weather over wide areas would change farming, flood and drought for most people.

Who is paid. Nobody can be charged one by one for weather, so governments pay, and I assumed the power source it needs is hard enough that the first builder holds it alone.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Desert Cabbage: A huge Martian plant that keeps itself warm against the frigid surface.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Desert Cabbage

Red Planet, Robert Heinlein · 1949

A huge Martian plant that keeps itself warm against the frigid surface.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a plant in a story and not something anyone could build or sell.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller gains.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Agricultural World: An entire planet given over to farming to feed a crowded neighbouring world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Agricultural World

Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1951

An entire planet given over to farming to feed a crowded neighbouring world.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. It is ordinary farming at the scale of a planet, feeding one crowded world, so it is a very big trade but not a new way of living.

Who is paid. The people of the crowded world buy the food, and farming is easy to copy, so whoever already owns the land and the freight ships collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Oxygen Weeds: Engineered plants that release breathable gas into a thin alien atmosphere.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Oxygen Weeds

The Sands of Mars, Arthur C. Clarke · 1951

Engineered plants that release breathable gas into a thin alien atmosphere.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Plants that make a thin alien air breathable would open a whole world to settlers, though few people would live there for a long time.

Who is paid. A government pays to seed a whole world, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the growers and contractors that already hold such public works contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Alien Zoo: A zoo collecting flora and fauna from numerous worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Alien Zoo

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

A zoo collecting flora and fauna from numerous worlds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A zoo of creatures from many worlds is an attraction people visit for pleasure.

Who is paid. I assumed visitors buy tickets, and whoever holds animals that nobody else can get keeps what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Home and everyday life · 7
Illustration of Undersea City: A large settlement on the seabed sealed beneath a transparent dome.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Undersea City

The Crystal City Under the Sea, Andre Laurie · 1895

A large settlement on the seabed sealed beneath a transparent dome.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A large settlement on the seabed would open new living space, though few would need to live there.

Who is paid. Unlike a town inside a building on ordinary land, the dome and seabed works shelter everyone at once and no resident could be charged singly for them, so I assumed a government pays and the big building firms that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Atomic Percolator: Brews coffee using heat from radioactive material.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atomic Percolator

The Golden Girl of Munan, Harl Vincent · 1928

Brews coffee using heat from radioactive material.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It makes coffee, which ordinary heat already does well.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and the story has it sold freely, so I assumed any appliance maker may buy the radioactive source and build the same thing, and no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Planet City: A world whose whole surface has been built over into one continuous urban sprawl.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Planet City

The Message From Space, David M. Speaker · 1930

A world whose whole surface has been built over into one continuous urban sprawl.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A world wholly built over houses a great many people, but it is ordinary city building repeated everywhere.

Who is paid. Households pay for homes in it, and since anyone can put up buildings, those who already own the land collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Pressurized Penthouse: A sealed top-floor home on a building so tall it reaches the thin upper air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pressurized Penthouse

Bread Overhead!, Fritz Leiber · 1958

A sealed top-floor home on a building so tall it reaches the thin upper air.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sealed home at the top of an immensely tall tower is a luxury for a few.

Who is paid. Rich households buy it, and I assumed more than a lone tower could be built, so developers with land and money collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Float-home: A bioengineered living creature used as a floating house.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Float-home

Whipping Star, Frank Herbert · 1969

A bioengineered living creature used as a floating house.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A home that is bred and not built would cut the cost of housing, assuming it is cheap to raise.

Who is paid. People buy it as a home, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the growers, builders and landowners that already hold stock, sites and the trade of housing collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Floating Building: An apartment block that hovers slightly above the ground.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Floating Building

Flow My Tears, The Policeman Said, Philip K. Dick · 1974

An apartment block that hovers slightly above the ground.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A block of flats that hovers a little above the ground gives its tenants nothing much that a grounded block does not.

Who is paid. A developer pays for it as a showpiece, and the large builders who already put up such blocks would do the work and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Bedog: A living, aware creature bred to serve as a bed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bedog

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

A living, aware creature bred to serve as a bed.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A living bed is a comfort and a curiosity, and many would dislike sleeping on an aware creature.

Who is paid. People buy it for the home, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the breeders and furnishing shops that already hold stock and showrooms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Exotic physics · 4
Illustration of Straightening the Earth's Poles: Shoving the whole planet with an enormous force so its spin axis stands upright and seasons vanish.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Straightening the Earth's Poles

The Purchase of the North Pole (Topsy Turvy), Jules Verne · 1889

Shoving the whole planet with an enormous force so its spin axis stands upright and seasons vanish.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Ending the seasons is a public work whose gain the description does not name, and the story's promise leaves out the harm to coasts and climates.

Who is paid. Only a government could pay for a work on the whole planet, and the firms that already build its great works collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Positron Beam: Huge quantities of antimatter particles are streamed in a beam circling the globe.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Positron Beam

The Great Thirst, Nat Schachner · 1934

Huge quantities of antimatter particles are streamed in a beam circling the globe.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A globe-circling beam of antimatter has no everyday use, so it is judged as a single weapon or public work.

Who is paid. Only a government could pay for something so large, and the firms that already build its great works collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Manmade Black Hole: Draws energy from an artificial rip in space-time.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Manmade Black Hole

One Against The Legion, Jack Williamson · 1939

Draws energy from an artificial rip in space-time.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A new source of power would change the cost of energy, though the description does not say how much it gives or how safely.

Who is paid. I assume a thing this dangerous would be a public work, with a government paying established power-plant builders, and others able to copy it once shown.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Magnetic Control of Nebulae: Shaping and steering vast interstellar gas clouds by means of magnetic fields.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magnetic Control of Nebulae

The Black Cloud, Fred Hoyle · 1957

Shaping and steering vast interstellar gas clouds by means of magnetic fields.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Steering clouds between the stars would matter only if one threatened the sun or the Earth.

Who is paid. Only governments would pay for such protection, and their established space contractors would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Society and economy · 6
Illustration of Alcatraz of Space: A prison built on a small rock drifting in space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Alcatraz of Space

Reunion on Ganymede, Clifford Simak · 1938

A prison built on a small rock drifting in space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A prison off the Earth holds prisoners no better than one on the ground, so it is a niche.

Who is paid. A government pays, and since a cell block is easy to copy, the firms that already fly the supply ships collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Space-Court: A tribunal that tries crimes committed between the stars.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space-Court

Murder in the Void, Edmond Hamilton · 1938

A tribunal that tries crimes committed between the stars.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A court is part of the law, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pleasure Planet: An entire world given over to leisure and entertainment.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pleasure Planet

After World's End, Jack Williamson · 1939

An entire world given over to leisure and entertainment.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A whole world of leisure would be an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Holidaymakers pay, and whoever holds the planet holds a place others cannot get.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Asterite: Someone born and raised in settlements scattered across the asteroid belt.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Asterite

Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942

Someone born and raised in settlements scattered across the asteroid belt.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Psychohistory: A statistical science that forecasts how whole populations will act over centuries.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Psychohistory

Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1951

A statistical science that forecasts how whole populations will act over centuries.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Reliable forecasts of where a whole society is heading would be worth a great deal to those who govern.

Who is paid. Governments pay, and I assumed the method and its records stay in the hands of those who worked it out, so others cannot copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Farming Trantor: Dismantling a world-spanning city so its ground can be tilled again.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Farming Trantor

Second Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1953

Dismantling a world-spanning city so its ground can be tilled again.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Tearing down a ruined city to farm its ground is an event in the story, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Ideas from Technovelgy: Science Fiction Timeline of Inventions (Bill Christensen) (archived copy), as compiled in Not Boring: Sci-Fi Idea Bank (Packy McCormick); names, works, authors and years are theirs and every description is this site's rewording. Categories, arrival decades and profit are judged by AI models, not people. Method