The technologies stories first imagined in this decade, by kind, with whether each has been built since and who would keep the profit.
By kind of technology
Space travel and habitats · 2
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Astronaut (Ship)
Across the Zodiac, Percy Greg · 1880
A vehicle designed to travel through outer space rather than air or water.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A working vessel for travel between worlds would found a transport industry of its own.
Who is paid. Carriers and expedition firms buy ships, and many yards could build them once shown how, so established vehicle builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ether Ship
Aleriel or A Voyage to Other Worlds, W.S. Lach-Szyrma · 1886
A ship built to sail through space beyond the atmosphere.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A working vessel for travel between worlds would found a transport industry of its own.
Who is paid. Carriers and expedition firms buy ships, and many yards could build them once shown how, so established vehicle builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Communication, media and displays · 6
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Telephonoscope
Le Vingtième Siècle (The Twentieth Century), Albert Robida · 1883
A screen that carries live images and sound from far away into the home.
built in the 1930s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Seeing distant events live at home changed how most people spend their evenings and learn the news.
Who is paid. Households buy sets and pay for channels, and since sets are easy to copy, the firms that own the factories, the stations and the networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Telephonic Music Room
Looking Backward, Edward Bellamy · 1888
Rooms wired to carry live concerts from distant halls so listeners can hear them whenever they like.
built in the 2000s, about 120 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Hearing any concert at home whenever you like is how most music now reaches people, and it is worth an industry.
Who is paid. Listeners pay a regular fee, and since the wiring is easy to copy, the firms that already own the music and the lines into homes collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Atmospheric Advertising
In the Year 2889, Jules Verne · 1889
Projecting huge commercial messages onto the clouds so entire cities can see them.
built in the 2020s, about 140 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Messages on the clouds are one more place to show advertisements, and they depend on the weather.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and anyone with a strong projector can light up the sky, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Live News
In the Year 2889, Jules Verne · 1889
Reporters speak the day's events directly to subscribers as they happen rather than printing them.
built in the 1980s, about 100 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. News spoken to subscribers as it happens is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Subscribers pay, sending speech is easy to copy, and the firms that already gather the news collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Phonotelephote
In the Year 2889, Jules Verne · 1889
A device for two-way conversation where each party both hears and sees the other.
built in the 2010s, about 130 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Seeing the person you talk to changes how families keep in touch and how firms meet.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the screens and cameras are easy to copy, so the firms that own the networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Recorded News
In the Year 2889, Jules Verne · 1889
Storing spoken news so listeners can replay it whenever they choose.
built in the 1990s, about 110 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Getting the news at the moment and place you choose is a convenience over waiting for the paper.
Who is paid. Readers pay; the machine is easy to copy, so the news firms that already gather the reports collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Food, agriculture and environment · 1
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Chemical Production of Food
Mizora: A Prophecy, Mary E. Bradley Lane · 1881
Making edible nutrients through chemistry and fermentation instead of growing crops.
built in the 2000s, about 120 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Food made without fields would free the feeding of people from land and weather, which touches nearly everyone.
Who is paid. Households buy it as ordinary groceries, and since the method can be copied, the food makers who already own plants, brands and shop space collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Home and everyday life · 1
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Electrified Fence
A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur's Court, Mark Twain · 1889
A wire barrier charged with current strong enough to stop anyone from crossing.
built in the 1930s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A charged fence keeps animals in and people out, which is useful but narrow.
Who is paid. Farms and guarded sites buy it, and wire with a current through it is simple for anyone to supply.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Exotic physics · 4
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Apergy (Apergion)
Across the Zodiac, Percy Greg · 1880
A material that repels gravity strongly enough to carry a vessel between planets.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Cancelling weight at will would cut the cost of lifting, carrying and launching, which changes transport and building more than it changes how most people live.
Who is paid. Carriers, builders and launch firms would pay, and since the trick could be copied once shown, the firms that already build vehicles and craft would collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dutch Clock (Time Machine)
The Clock That Went Backward, Edward Page Mitchell · 1881
An old clock whose reversed motion carries people into the past.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Reaching the past would be worth an industry in study, salvage and statecraft, though few people would need it day to day.
Who is paid. I assume a state would keep for itself a machine that can alter history, so a government pays and its established contractors build it, since others could copy it once shown.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Anacronopete (Time Machine)
El Anacronopete, Enrique Gaspar · 1887
An electrically powered flying vessel that travels backward through the centuries.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Reaching the past would be worth an industry in study, salvage and statecraft, though few people would need it day to day.
Who is paid. I assume a state would keep for itself a machine that can alter history, so a government pays and its established contractors build it, since others could copy it once shown.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Straightening the Earth's Poles
The Purchase of the North Pole (Topsy Turvy), Jules Verne · 1889
Shoving the whole planet with an enormous force so its spin axis stands upright and seasons vanish.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Ending the seasons is a public work whose gain the description does not name, and the story's promise leaves out the harm to coasts and climates.
Who is paid. Only a government could pay for a work on the whole planet, and the firms that already build its great works collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Society and economy · 2
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Credit Card
Looking Backward, Edward Bellamy · 1888
A card carried instead of cash that lets people pay for goods against an account.
built in the 1950s, about 70 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Paying without cash is worth an industry of its own, and the card drawn on an account is its plainest form.
Who is paid. Shops and banks pay fees on each sale, and since the card or chip itself is easy to copy, the banks and payment networks that already hold people's accounts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mall (Great City Bazaar)
Looking Backward, Edward Bellamy · 1888
A single large covered building holding many stores together.
built in the 1950s, about 70 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Many stores under one roof changed how shopping is done and is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Shopkeepers pay for space, and since the building is easy to copy, the owners of well-placed land collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
