Kurzweil expects a thousand dollars of computing to match every human brain on the planet combined by around 2050.
Ray Kurzweil · by 2050 · will equal the processing power of all human brains on Earth
From The Law of Accelerating Returns, Ray Kurzweil, 2001; The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005
Kurzweil expects machine intelligence to outstrip biological human intelligence by a factor of billions before 2050.
Ray Kurzweil · by 2050
From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005
James Watson predicted in 2003 that within half a century drugs would let people overeat without gaining weight.
James Watson · by 2053
From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005
Kurzweil, extending the trend from 2000 to 2023, projects that by 2053 about a thousand dollars of computing will outpace the unaided human brain roughly seven-million-fold.
Ray Kurzweil · by 2053
From The Singularity Is Nearer, Ray Kurzweil, 2024
Unbuilt ideas AI models place here
Space travel and habitats · 28
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Rocket Engine Moves Moon
The Space Dwellers, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1929
Bolting a spacecraft's engines onto a minor moon or asteroid and firing them to shift where it travels.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Steering whole rocks to where they are wanted would serve mining and building in space, part of an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Mining and building firms are assumed to pay, and fixing engines to a rock is easy to copy, so the firms that already own ships and engines collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ship Pushes Moon
Buck Rogers, 2430 AD, Philip Nowlan (w/D. Calkins · 1929
Nudging a small moon onto a new course by pressing a spacecraft's engine thrust against it.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Steering whole rocks to where they are wanted would serve mining and building in space, part of an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Mining and building firms are assumed to pay, and fixing engines to a rock is easy to copy, so the firms that already own ships and engines collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mother Ship
The Black Star Passes, John W. Campbell · 1930
A large vessel acting as a base that launches, supplies and recovers smaller craft in space.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A working ship that carries people and cargo between worlds is the base of a whole transport industry.
Who is paid. Carriers and other firms working in space buy ships, and since a second yard could build the same craft the established shipbuilders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
The Sleep
Tani of Ekkis, Judson W. Reeves · 1930
Putting travellers into a deep dormant state so a long space trip consumes far less food, water and air.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Deep sleep that saves food, water and air would make very long voyages possible.
Who is paid. Carriers would pay, and nothing in the description stops others doing it once it is shown to work, so the firms that already supply ships collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Beam-Powered Propulsion
The Prince of Space, Jack Williamson · 1931
Driving a craft forward by aiming a strong energy beam at it from a separate source.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Pushing craft with a beam from outside would let ships fly without carrying their own fuel, changing launch costs.
Who is paid. Ship operators pay for the push, and since others could build beam stations the gain goes to those who already own the sites and power plants.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Self-Sustaining Space Craft
The Prince of Space, Jack Williamson · 1931
A spacecraft with a closed living system that recycles its own air, water and food.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A vessel that renews its own air, water and food could stay out for very long voyages, a working ship for a transport industry of its own.
Who is paid. Carriers and expedition firms buy ships, and many yards could build them once shown how, so established vehicle builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Asteroid Rocket
Salvage in Space, Jack Williamson · 1933
Thrusters bolted onto a space rock push it along a chosen path, turning the rock itself into a vessel.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Steering whole rocks to where they are wanted would serve mining and building in space, part of an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Mining and building firms are assumed to pay, and bolting engines to a rock is easy to copy, so the firms that already own ships and engines collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Rocket Cruiser
The Worlds of Tomorrow, Manly Wade Wellman · 1940
A spaceship owned and flown by a private individual rather than a state.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A spaceship a private person can own and fly would open a new kind of private travel.
Who is paid. Private owners buy the ship, assumed here to be ordinary people and not firms, and since the design could be copied the established builders of craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Charted Planetoid Mines
The Day We Celebrate, Nelson S. Bond · 1941
Mapping small bodies in space to find and claim ore worth digging.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Metal and other materials from space rocks would be an industry of its own and could change the cost of raw materials.
Who is paid. Factories and builders buy the output, and since mining methods are easy to copy the firms that already own ships and refineries collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Space Rush
Jurisdiction, Nat Schachner · 1941
A scramble of prospectors racing to claim riches found off Earth.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is an event, a crowd racing to stake claims, not a product anyone makes or sells.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wheelchair Space Station
Waldo, Robert Heinlein · 1942
A private orbiting dwelling where someone lives permanently above Earth.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A private home in orbit is a dwelling for a very few who could afford and want it.
Who is paid. Unlike other stations the description names a private resident, who pays for it, and established station builders could all make one.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Asteroid Mine
Love Among The Robots, Emmett McDowell · 1946
Finding asteroids rich in metal and extracting their ore.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Metal and other materials from space rocks would be an industry of its own and could change the cost of raw materials.
Who is paid. Factories and builders buy the output, and since mining methods are easy to copy the firms that already own ships and refineries collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hybrid Mass Driver
The Man Who Sold The Moon, Robert Heinlein · 1950
An electric catapult that flings spacecraft through the opening leg of their climb to orbit.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Flinging or pushing payloads to space without big rockets would change the cost of the whole launch industry.
Who is paid. Firms with cargo to launch pay, and since others could build such works the gain goes to those who already own launch sites and power.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Asteroid-Metal
The Mechanical Monarch, E.C. Tubb · 1958
Metal extracted from asteroids.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Metal and other materials from space rocks would be an industry of its own and could change the cost of raw materials.
Who is paid. Factories and builders buy the output, and since mining methods are easy to copy the firms that already own ships and refineries collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
The Hub
Worlds of Origin, Jack Vance · 1958
A large holiday complex in space made of livable bubbles held together by a metal lattice.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A holiday resort in space would be a travel industry of its own.
Who is paid. Unlike other stations this one is sold to holidaymakers, who pay for their stay, and since the structure could be copied the resort owners and builders already in the trade collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Laser Cannon
Neutron Star, Larry Niven · 1966
A very powerful laser used to push sail-driven spacecraft.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Pushing sail ships with a powerful laser would let them fly without carrying fuel, changing the cost of space transport.
Who is paid. Whoever runs the ships pays for the push, assumed here to be carriers, and others could build such lasers, so the owners of the power and sites collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mass-Driver Catapult
The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966
An electromagnetic launcher that hurls cargo off the Moon into orbit.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Hurling cargo off the Moon without rockets would change the cost of everything built in space.
Who is paid. Firms with cargo to launch pay, and since others could build such works the gain goes to those who already own launch sites and power.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Womb Room
A World Out of Time, Larry Niven · 1976
A fully immersive ship's control room surrounding the pilot with displays.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A control room that surrounds the pilot with displays is a better cockpit, a fitting of the ship.
Who is paid. Ship operators buy it as part of the craft, and the established makers of flight instruments supply it since it can be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Centrifuge Room
The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977
A small rotating chamber on a minor planet that simulates gravity by spinning.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Spinning to give weight is a design feature of a habitat, useful but not a product of its own.
Who is paid. Whoever pays for the habitat pays for this, assumed here to be a government, and any habitat builder can use the idea so the established builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Lado-Acheson System
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
A system that channels sunlight into an enclosed orbital colony.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Bringing sunlight into a closed colony is needed for life there, but it is a part of the habitat.
Who is paid. A part follows the settlement, which a government pays for, and the builders that already win such contracts supply it since it can be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Big Push
Limits, Larry Niven · 1985
A long electromagnetic launch track that flings payloads to high speed.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Flinging payloads to space without rockets would change the cost of the whole launch industry.
Who is paid. Firms with cargo to launch pay, and since others could build such a track or gun the gain goes to those who already own launch sites and power.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Circumlunar
Schismatrix, Bruce Sterling · 1985
A big settlement circling the Moon.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A place for many people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.
Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Michael (Orion Ship)
Footfall, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1985
A nuclear-pulse spacecraft humanity launches to fight an alien invasion.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A warship strong enough to defend a whole planet is worth a great deal to the government that needs it, though such ships would be built rarely.
Who is paid. It is military, so a government pays, and the arms and space firms that already hold such contracts build it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sours
Schismatrix, Bruce Sterling · 1985
The stale smell that builds up in sealed habitats from the microbes their soil needs.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a stale smell that builds up in sealed habitats, a nuisance and not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Rotated Solid Space Habitat
Iron, Poul Anderson · 1989
A solid structure set spinning in space so its occupants feel artificial gravity.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A place for many people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.
Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Magsail
Falling Stars, Michael Flynn · 1998
A spacecraft between planets pushed by solar wind caught in a magnetic field.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. An engine that moves ships faster or more cheaply would change the cost of all space transport.
Who is paid. An engine is bought by whoever runs the ship, assumed here to be carriers, and established engine builders could copy it once it worked.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Magship
Falling Stars, Michael Flynn · 1998
A spacecraft that rides the solar wind using a large magnetic field.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A working ship that carries people and cargo between worlds is the base of a whole transport industry.
Who is paid. Carriers and other firms working in space buy ships, and since a second yard could build the same craft the established shipbuilders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cosmoline (Warm Sleep)
War Dogs, Greg Bear · 2014
A gel that keeps space travellers in suspended dormancy while repairing their bodies.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Suspending and preserving the body would make very long voyages possible and, assumed here, would matter to medicine too.
Who is paid. Carriers and hospitals would pay, and nothing in the description stops others making it once it is shown to work, so the firms that already supply ships and hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Computing, AI and virtual worlds · 13
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
The Machines
The Evitable Conflict, Isaac Asimov · 1950
A handful of supercomputers that plan and steer an entire world's economy.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A machine wise enough to run or remake a whole society's affairs would change how most people live and work.
Who is paid. I assume a single machine serving everyone would be built as a public work, so a government pays, and the firms that already build large computing works for governments collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Semi-Conducting Graphite-Gel
Callahan and the Wheelies, Stephen Barr · 1960
A gel-based computing material arranged like an animal's nervous tissue.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A material that computes the way nerve tissue does would let machines handle tasks ordinary circuits manage badly, which changes costs for the computer industry.
Who is paid. Firms that need computing pay, and I assume others could learn to grow or mix such a material in time, so the firms that already sell computing to every business collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Kingdom in a Box
The Cyberiad: Fables for the Cybernetic Age, Stanislaw Lem · 1965
A simulated miniature civilisation housed in an interactive container.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A tiny simulated civilisation in a box is a marvellous plaything, assumed here to be kept for amusement.
Who is paid. People would buy it as a toy, and being hard to build does not stop a second firm building one, so I assume no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Nexus-6 Brain Unit
Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, Philip K. Dick · 1968
The processing core that gives an artificial human its intelligence.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A machine mind as able as a person could do most kinds of work, which changes how nearly everyone earns a living.
Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Total Environmental and Mental Simulator
Crown of Infinity, John M. Faucette · 1968
A superintelligent machine that invents and abandons entire sciences to solve a problem.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A machine that can invent whole new sciences to solve a problem would change how most people live and work.
Who is paid. I assume a single machine serving everyone would be built as a public work, so a government pays, and the firms that already build large computing works for governments collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Maas-Neotek Biochip
Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988
A chip supplying the hardware and software needed to host a virtual being.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A chip that carries an artificial being for its owner, which I assume is kept as a companion, is worth an industry and not a change in how all work is done.
Who is paid. People are assumed to buy it for themselves, and once such a chip exists others could be made, so the firms that already own the costly chip factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Recorded Personalities
Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988
Stored software copies of a person's traits and responses.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A stored copy of a skilled person's ways of responding lets a firm keep using that skill, which is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Firms pay, and each recording is of one person, so whoever holds it controls something no one else can get.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Datumplane
Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989
The immersive network space where hackers do their work.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Stepping inside the network as a place would be a new medium for play and work, worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy the gear and the access, the idea is easy to copy, and firms that already own networks and gadget factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Moldies
Freeware, Rudy Rucker · 1997
Self-directed artificial living beings that think and act on their own.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. These are free beings that act for themselves in the story and not a product anyone owns or sells.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Head Cheese
Starfish, Peter Watts · 1999
A thinking gel of grown nerve cells spread on a surface to do computation.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A computer grown from living nerve cells that outdid ordinary chips would change the cost of computing for one industry after another.
Who is paid. Firms that need computing pay, and I assume others could learn to grow such tissue in time, so the firms that already sell computing to every business collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Smart Gel
Starfish, Peter Watts · 1999
A cultured brain-cell tissue layered onto a base and used as a computer.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A material that computes the way nerve tissue does would let machines handle tasks ordinary circuits manage badly, which changes costs for the computer industry.
Who is paid. Firms that need computing pay, and I assume others could learn to grow or mix such a material in time, so the firms that already sell computing to every business collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Lobster AI
Accelerando, Charles Stross · 2005
An artificial mind made by copying the nervous system of a crustacean.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A mind copied from a crustacean is far short of a person's and is assumed useful only for narrow control jobs.
Who is paid. Firms would buy it for such jobs, and once one nervous system had been copied I assume others could do the same, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Scanner Palm
KOP, Warren Hammond · 2007
A hand implant that captures documents when the palm is passed over them.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Copying papers with a pass of the hand is a convenience, and few would have an implant for it.
Who is paid. A few people would buy the implant, and many gadget firms could make one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Communication, media and displays · 3
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Life Chamber
The Chamber of Life, G. Peyton Wertenbaker · 1929
A room where machines surround a visitor with sights, sounds and sensations so convincing it feels like living another reality.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. An artificial world that feels real would be worth an entertainment industry of its own; I judged the full promise, which is larger than anything sold so far.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the machine can be copied once shown, so those who already own the stories and worlds people want to enter collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Lunar Advertisement
Watch This Space, Arthur C. Clarke · 1957
A commercial message laid out on the Moon large enough to be read from Earth.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A sign on the Moon is still a single place to show an advertisement, though it is the most widely seen of all.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and unlike the open sky there is only the Moon's face to write on, so assuming governments share it out, the few allowed to mark it can charge for it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Commercial Fly
The Simulacra, Philip K. Dick · 1964
A tiny flying machine that pesters people with advertisements.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A tiny flying machine that pesters people with advertisements is one more way to advertise, and an unwelcome one.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and once such fliers exist anyone can send them out, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Robotics and automation · 8
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tentacle Machines
The Metal Giants, Edmond Hamilton · 1926
Huge self-directed machines with cylinder bodies and snaking arms.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The description gives these huge machines with snaking arms no job, so they are judged as heavy handling machines of unusual shape, a niche.
Who is paid. Firms doing heavy work are assumed to buy them, and as many could copy the shape the makers of heavy equipment with factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Golden Shuttles (Mechanical Mice)
The Mechanical Mice, Maurice G. Hugi · 1941
Tiny machines that hunt down and consume clockwork components.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Tiny machines that hunt and eat clockwork are a pest in the story, doing only harm and serving no owner the description names.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Autofac (Nanorobots)
Autofac, Philip K. Dick · 1955
Minute machines made by automated factories that can build copies of themselves.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Minute machines that copy themselves and build things would change how nearly everything is made, assuming people stay in charge of them, which the story doubts.
Who is paid. Firms would pay for them to make goods, but a machine that copies itself cannot be kept scarce, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Famnexdo
The Simulacra, Philip K. Dick · 1964
A boxed set of android neighbours, a family of four, for isolated homes.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A boxed family of android neighbours for lonely homes is company sold as a product, worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and as many could make such machines the firms with factories and well-liked brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Embryonic Robots
Counter Clock World, Philip K. Dick · 1967
Extremely small robots, possibly an early fictional take on nanomachines.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Extremely small robots are assumed here to do fine work inside goods or bodies, enough for an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Firms buy them for their work, and as nothing says they cannot be copied the makers with precision factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Construct
Retief, the Long-Awaited Master, Keith Laumer · 1969
An artificial creature assembled from both living tissue and machine parts.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. The description gives this creature of tissue and machine no job, so it is judged as a general working machine that would change how most people work.
Who is paid. Firms buy them as labour, and since many could build such bodies once shown how, the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dormancy Switch
Sparrowhawk, Thomas A. Easton · 1990
A control that puts a bioengineered cyborg animal into sleep on command.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A control that sends a built animal to sleep is a feature of the animal, not a product by itself.
Who is paid. Owners pay for it within the price of the animal, and any maker of such animals could include it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mobile Persocom
Chobits, Manga Clamp · 2002
A humanoid robot that serves as someone's personal computer.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A humanlike robot that is also its owner's computer is judged as a companion and helper, worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and as many could make such machines the firms with factories and well-liked brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Medicine, biotech and longevity · 22
Artificial Life
Across Space, Edmond Hamilton · 1926
Builds living organisms out of non-living chemical ingredients.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Building living things from plain chemicals would give farming, medicine and industry organisms made to order.
Who is paid. Firms would buy such organisms for their work, and once the method was known other laboratories could repeat it, so established chemical and drug makers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Synthetic Babies
A Biological Experiment, David H. Keller · 1928
Grows fertilised eggs into full-term infants outside a mother's body.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Carrying a child outside the body would spare mothers the risks of pregnancy and open parenthood to people who cannot carry a child.
Who is paid. Would-be parents would pay, and other laboratories could copy the chamber once it worked, so established fertility clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Alpha Plus
Brave New World, Aldous Huxley · 1932
Deliberately shapes how human bodies and minds develop before birth to produce superior individuals.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Shaping a child before birth to be healthier and abler is something many parents would pay dearly for.
Who is paid. I assumed parents pay rather than the state as in the story; the methods could be copied, so established fertility clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Healing Crystal
A Martian Odyssey, Stanley G. Weinbaum · 1934
A small handheld object destroys sick tissue while sparing the healthy cells around it.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Destroying diseased tissue while sparing the healthy would treat tumours and infections without surgery.
Who is paid. I assumed clinics buy it and, following the story, that the crystals are a rare find that cannot be manufactured, so whoever controls the supply keeps what is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Xixtline
Parasite Planet, Stanley G. Weinbaum · 1935
A drug from a swampy world that restores youthful vigour to those who take it.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Giving back youthful vigour is in effect holding off old age, which nearly everyone alive would want.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and a new medicine is protected from copying for a long while, so its maker keeps much of the gain.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Methuen Treatment
The Exhalted, L. Sprague de Camp · 1940
Shots that raise mental ability.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Raising mental ability would be wanted by a great many people; assumed the gain is real but modest.
Who is paid. People pay for the shots, and the developer keeps the gain because a new medicine is protected from copying.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cold-Rest
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
Chilling a person so their bodily processes slow into a deep dormant rest.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Putting people safely into long dormancy would make very long journeys possible and give hospitals time to treat the gravely ill.
Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cold-Sleep
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
Putting a person into a chilled, slowed-down state like an animal's winter dormancy.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Putting people safely into long dormancy would make very long journeys possible and give hospitals time to treat the gravely ill.
Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Living Advertising Character
The Stars My Destination, Alfred Bester · 1956
Surgically altering a person to become a walking embodiment of a firm's mascot.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the surgery that makes them, a niche form of advertising.
Who is paid. Firms pay for the surgery, and other surgeons could do the same work, so established cosmetic clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Regen-Buds
The Velvet Glove, Harry Harrison · 1956
Small clusters of cells that can be grown out into replacement arms or legs.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Growing back a lost arm or leg would be worth an industry of its own to those who need it.
Who is paid. I assumed hospitals buy the cells and do the growing; living cells can be grown on by others, so established medical suppliers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Freezebox
Think Blue, Count Two, Cordwainer Smith · 1962
A chamber holding travellers in long suspended sleep during interstellar trips.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Putting people safely into long dormancy would make very long journeys possible and give hospitals time to treat the gravely ill.
Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hibernaculum
2001: A Space Odyssey, Arthur C. Clarke · 1968
A compact pod that keeps a traveller in suspended sleep through long voyages.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Putting people safely into long dormancy would make very long journeys possible and give hospitals time to treat the gravely ill.
Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Axolotl Tank
Dune Messiah, Frank Herbert · 1969
A biological vessel used to regrow or remodel living tissue.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Regrowing lost or ruined tissue would change what hospitals can do for the badly injured.
Who is paid. I assumed hospitals buy and run it; once it worked other makers could copy it, so established medical equipment firms and hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Crechepod
The Godmakers, Frank Herbert · 1972
An enclosed medical capsule that sustains life and regrows damaged tissue.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Regrowing lost or ruined tissue would change what hospitals can do for the badly injured.
Who is paid. I assumed hospitals buy and run it; once it worked other makers could copy it, so established medical equipment firms and hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Nikon Eyes
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
Lab-grown eyes transplanted to replace or mend a person's natural ones.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Grown eyes that replace failing ones would be worth an industry.
Who is paid. Patients pay, with insurers behind them, and established tissue growers and eye clinics collect since others could grow them too.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Deceleration Paste
Schismatrix, Bruce Sterling · 1985
A remedy for the bodily harm caused by violent braking during spaceflight.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It serves only people who work in space or under unusual gravity, which is a niche.
Who is paid. I assumed employers and space carriers buy it for their crews; a new drug is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what little is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Uterine Replicator
Shards of Honor, Lois McMaster Bujold · 1986
An artificial womb that carries a pregnancy outside the body.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Carrying a child outside the body would spare mothers the risks of pregnancy and open parenthood to people who cannot carry a child.
Who is paid. Would-be parents would pay, and other laboratories could copy the chamber once it worked, so established fertility clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Birthing egg
Nanotime, Bart Kosko · 1987
A chamber that merges two parents' genes and grows the resulting baby outside the body.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Carrying a child outside the body would spare mothers the risks of pregnancy and open parenthood to people who cannot carry a child, and the mixing of the parents' genes does not change the size.
Who is paid. Would-be parents would pay, and other laboratories could copy the chamber once it worked, so established fertility clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Microde
Armed Memory, Jim Smith · 1995
A fictional engineered virus aimed at one person to alter their traits in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A banned tool for changing a chosen person is a niche; assumed a state agency is the only buyer.
Who is paid. A government pays, and the laboratories that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gillfluid
The Algebraist, Iain M Banks · 2004
An oxygen-rich liquid breathed into the lungs so the body can withstand high pressure.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Breathing liquid to bear high pressure serves a few divers and space crews.
Who is paid. Firms would buy it for their crews, and I assumed the liquid is a chemical many firms could make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Nutrient Extractor and Maximizer (NEM)
The Human Blend, Alan Dean Foster · 2010
An implanted apparatus that takes over and improves how the body processes food.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. An implant that improves how the body uses food would be wanted by a great many people.
Who is paid. Patients pay, and makers of medical implants collect since rivals could build the same device.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sloth Pill
The Breach, M.T. Hill · 2020
A drug that puts a traveller into a brief hibernation-like torpor for the length of a flight.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Sleeping through a single flight is a comfort for travellers, unlike the long dormancy that makes far voyages possible.
Who is paid. Travellers would buy it for themselves, and a new drug is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Mind and neurotechnology · 24
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Thought Screen
The Emperor of the Stars, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931
A wearable display that shows the pictures in its wearer's mind.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Showing others the pictures in your own mind is a novelty and an aid to explaining.
Who is paid. The wearer shows their own thoughts willingly, so people would buy it for themselves, and many makers could copy it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Horsten Psychomat
The Worlds of If, Stanley G. Weinbaum · 1935
A device reads a remembered or imagined scene from someone's mind and displays it for others to watch.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Showing others what you remember or picture is a new kind of camera, a pleasure and a keepsake rather than a need.
Who is paid. Unlike the probes used on unwilling subjects, I assumed this is used by a willing person to show a scene to others, so ordinary people would buy it, and once one maker had it others could copy it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Psychode
The Infinite Enemy, Jack Williamson · 1938
Passes messages directly between minds without speech or writing.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Telephones and letters already carry messages, so sending them mind to mind is a convenience.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and once it existed many makers could copy it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Personality Alteration
Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943
Methods for permanently remaking someone's character and temperament.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Remaking a person's character for good would be an industry of its own for those unhappy with who they are.
Who is paid. The description does not say whether the subject is willing; I assume people seek it for themselves and pay, and the clinics that already treat the mind would collect since the methods could be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Analogue Treatment
Ticket to Anywhere, Damon Knight · 1952
A drug-and-suggestion therapy in the story used to bring unusual behaviour into line.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.
Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Retinal Light
The Stars My Destination, Alfred Bester · 1956
A light source built inside the eye so the user can see in the dark.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Lamps and night glasses already let people see in the dark, so a light inside the eye is a convenience.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and once it existed many makers could copy it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pleasure Cap
A Planet Named Shayol, Cordwainer Smith · 1961
A headpiece that stimulates the brain's reward centres directly.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Direct stimulation of the reward centres would draw a large and steady demand, as strong drugs do.
Who is paid. Users would buy it for themselves, legal or not, and it is simple enough that many makers could supply it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Empathy Box
The Little Black Box, Philip K. Dick · 1964
Lets many people share one person's feelings at once.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Sharing one person's feelings with many others is a religious or social comfort for those who want it.
Who is paid. Believers would buy the box for themselves, and a simple box is easy to copy, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hypno-Ligation
Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965
A technique for psychologically controlling a person.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.
Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mnemonic Pulse
Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965
A signal in recordings that helps lodge knowledge in the learner's memory.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A signal that makes lessons stick would speed up schooling, but the learner still sits through the recording at an ordinary pace.
Who is paid. Learners and families would buy the recordings themselves, and any publisher could add such a signal once it was known, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cyborg Pilot
The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966
A human mind wired directly into a machine to control it.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. This names a person, but the link behind it, a mind wired into a machine, is a better set of controls where hand controls already do the job.
Who is paid. Firms that run the machines would buy it, and once one maker had the link others could copy it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mood Organ
Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, Philip K. Dick · 1968
A household device that lets users choose the emotions they want to feel.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Choosing how to feel at home would stand in for much of what people now seek from drink, pills and therapy.
Who is paid. Households would buy it as a home appliance, and many makers could copy it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Penfield Wave Transmitter
Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, Philip K. Dick · 1968
A device that beams energy into the brain so a user can select an emotional state.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Choosing how to feel would stand in for much of what people now seek from drink, pills and therapy.
Who is paid. Households would buy it as a home appliance, and many makers could copy it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hypno-Encyclopedic Techniques
Time Enough For Love, Robert Heinlein · 1973
Methods for sorting and managing memories across a very long life.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Sorting the memories of a very long life only matters to people who live that long, a niche unless long life comes too.
Who is paid. The long-lived would pay for it themselves, and it is a method any trained person could offer, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Implanted Interface With Retinal Nerves
The Continuous Katherine Mortenhoe (The Unsleeping Eye), D.G. Compton · 1973
Circuitry wired into the eye's nerves that captures what the person sees.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A person whose eyes act as a camera is a niche tool for filming and watching.
Who is paid. I assumed broadcasters pay for it, as in the story, and once one maker had wired a camera to the eye others could copy it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Data-Retrieval Mode
The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975
Extracting thoughts and pictures stored in someone's mind.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Pulling memories and thoughts out of an unwilling head would change how crimes are solved and secrets are kept.
Who is paid. The description speaks of extracting, so I assumed it is done to a subject by police, courts and spy services, and the firms that already supply them could copy the machine and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cyborg Dolphin (Jones)
Johnny Mnemonic, William Gibson · 1981
A dolphin fitted with implants for military work and later repurposed.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A trained sea animal with implants does a few naval jobs that machines can also do.
Who is paid. A navy would pay, and the firms that already hold its contracts could do the work and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mindwipe
Mindkiller, Spider Robinson · 1982
A fictional procedure for erasing chosen memories, central to the story's intrigue.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Removing chosen memories would be an industry of its own for people haunted by what they recall.
Who is paid. People would pay to be rid of chosen memories, and the clinics that already treat the mind would collect, since the procedure could be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cerebral Microprocessors
Millenium, John Varley · 1983
Chips implanted in the brain to raise mental performance beyond natural limits.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Chips that lift the mind beyond its natural limits would change how most people work and learn.
Who is paid. People would pay to keep up with each other, and the chip makers and surgeons already in place could copy the design and collect; this goes further than the helmets and chairs that only sharpen ordinary thought.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Meat Puppet
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
A person whose body is run by software through a brain implant while their awareness is suspended.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. This names a person, but the implant behind it hires out a body while its owner is absent, a narrow trade where it is allowed at all.
Who is paid. Employers who were let to use it would pay, and a control implant could be copied by any maker, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Neural Cut Out Chip
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
A brain implant in the story that lets software override a person's body.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Letting software run a body serves the few employers who want obedient hands.
Who is paid. Employers would pay for it to control workers, and the chip could be copied by many makers, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pulse-Timer
Heretics of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1984
A timepiece that shows the hour inside the wearer's sight by acting on the brain.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A watch already tells the hour, so showing it inside the wearer's sight is a convenience.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and once it existed many makers could copy it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Neural Lace
Surface Detail, Iain M Banks · 2010
A mesh woven into the brain that links a person's mind with computing systems.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A mesh joining the mind to computers would be an industry of its own.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and since the implant could be copied the firms that already run the networks and do the surgery would collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cranial Amplified Programming CAP
Killing Titan, Greg Bear · 2015
A headpiece placed on the skull that speeds up how a person learns.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. I took the faster learning to be of the same kind as the knowledge-loading helmets, which would replace years of schooling for most people.
Who is paid. Families and learners would pay for it themselves, and once one firm had built the gear others could copy it and many could write the lessons, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Transport and mobility · 6
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vacuum Cylinder
Wandl, The Invader, Ray Cummings · 1932
Sends passengers in sealed capsules through evacuated pipes, the way offices once shot letters around.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Fast capsules in sealed tubes would rival trains and aircraft on their routes, which changes the cost of travel between cities.
Who is paid. Governments pay for a public way of this size, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Extraecliptic Travel Lanes
A Question of Salvage, Malcolm Jameson · 1939
Organised shipping routes between planets that leave the flat plane of their orbits.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is an agreed set of routes for ships rather than a thing anyone makes or buys.
Who is paid. Nothing is made or sold here, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vacutubes
Double Star, Robert Heinlein · 1956
Public transit that moves passenger capsules through tubes with most of the air pumped out.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Fast capsules in sealed tubes would rival trains and aircraft on their routes, which changes the cost of travel between cities.
Who is paid. Governments pay for a public way of this size, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flycycle
Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970
A flying motorbike that also carries a kitchen and automated medical care.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A flying motorbike that carries its rider wherever they please would be an industry of its own as the motorbike is; the kitchen and medical kit aboard add comfort rather than reach.
Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bubble Car
A World Out of Time, Larry Niven · 1976
A self-driving car that hovers above the road.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A car that needs no driver gives back the hours spent at the wheel and is worth an industry of its own; hovering above the road adds little to that.
Who is paid. Owners buy it, and since several firms can build a driving system once it is shown to work, the car makers that already own factories, dealers and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Millipede Train
Eon, Greg Bear · 1985
A train that travels without rails or any supporting guideway.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A train that needs no track saves the cost of laying it, but it is then close to a road convoy, so the gain is modest.
Who is paid. Hauliers and carriers buy it, and the established makers of heavy vehicles collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Materials, manufacturing and construction · 15
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Living Metal Cubes
The Metal Monster, Abraham Merritt · 1920
Swarms of tiny metal modules that join together to form bigger structures.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Tiny modules that join into larger structures by themselves would change the cost of construction.
Who is paid. Builders buy them, and once they can be copied the established makers of building materials collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Single Sheet Molecule
Dorsai!, Gordon R. Dickson · 1960
Paper made of one giant molecule so each document is unique and cannot be forged.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Paper that cannot be forged is useful for money, deeds and certificates, which is a niche.
Who is paid. Banks, firms and offices buy it, and I assumed more than one maker could learn the method, so established security printers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Plastex
The Thousand Dreams of Stellavista, J.G. Ballard · 1962
A plaster-rubber blend that lets a home's structure change shape.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Walls that let a home change shape are a pleasant extra, not a change in the cost of housing.
Who is paid. Home owners pay for it, assuming they choose it, and a blend is easy to copy, so builders and building-supply firms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Chalf (Quick-Scribe Powder)
The Tactful Saboteur, Frank Herbert · 1964
A self-arranging powder that forms written symbols on its own.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A powder that forms writing by itself is a neat way to take notes, which is a convenience.
Who is paid. People buy it as they buy pens and paper, and once the powder is understood many could make it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Chalf-Memory Stick
The Tactful Saboteur, Frank Herbert · 1964
A stick that arranges a special powder into readable text.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A stick that sets the powder into text is the same note-taking convenience as the powder itself.
Who is paid. People buy it as they buy pens and paper, and once the powder is understood many could make it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Leybyrdite
Subspace Explorers, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1965
An exceptionally hard crystalline metal.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. An exceptionally hard metal would cut wear and replacement costs in tools, machines and structures.
Who is paid. Makers of tools and machines buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established metal makers with furnaces and customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gauzy
This Immortal, Roger Zelazny · 1966
An ultralight tent made from fabric only a single molecule thick.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A tent that weighs almost nothing is a pleasure for campers and travellers.
Who is paid. Campers buy it, and once the fabric can be copied the outdoor brands and shops they already use collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tensile Memory Polarized Matter
Babel-17, Samuel R. Delany · 1966
A material that can switch between several preset shapes.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A material that switches between preset shapes lets one part or tool do the work of many across several industries.
Who is paid. Makers of tools, vehicles and goods buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Architectural Coral
A Gift From Earth, Larry Niven · 1968
Buildings grown into planned shapes by tiny reef-building organisms.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Buildings that grow themselves into shape would sharply cut the cost of putting up homes.
Who is paid. People buy it as a home, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the growers, builders and landowners that already hold stock, sites and the trade of housing collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mining Worm (Organic)
A Gift From Earth, Larry Niven · 1968
A bioengineered worm bred to dig through rock and extract ore.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A creature that digs rock and brings out ore would cut the cost of mining.
Who is paid. Mining firms buy it, and a living tool breeds and spreads, so the miners and suppliers already in the trade collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bio-Fabric
Say Goodby to the Wind, J.G. Ballard · 1970
Living clothing that continually reshapes itself to suit its wearer.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Clothing that reshapes itself is a pleasure and a fashion, not a need.
Who is paid. People buy it to wear, and living cloth can be bred by others, so fashion houses with known names and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
City of Glass
The Godmakers, Frank Herbert · 1972
A whole city built from distinctive structural glass and ceramic.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A city is not a product, so I judged the structural glass it is built from, which is one building material among many.
Who is paid. Builders buy the glass and ceramic, and established makers of building materials can all supply it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bubble City
My Name is Legion, Roger Zelazny · 1976
Large undersea domes housing whole communities.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Whole communities living on the seabed would open a new kind of place to settle, which is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. A dome that keeps the sea out shelters everyone inside at once, so a government pays for it, and the marine builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ridulian Crystal Sheets
God Emperor of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1981
Extremely strong crystalline panes of remarkable thinness.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Extremely strong panes of great thinness would change glazing, screens and light structures.
Who is paid. Builders and manufacturers buy them, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Superscraper
New York 2140, Kim Stanley Robinson · 2017
Extremely tall towers rising far beyond today's tallest buildings.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Much taller towers add floor space in a few crowded cities without changing what building costs.
Who is paid. Developers pay for them, and the firms that already own city land and do big construction collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Weapons and warfare · 13
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Death-Beam
Crashing Suns, Edmond Hamilton · 1928
Bright energy beams fired between ships in space combat.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A heavy beam that can strike ships or aircraft at the speed of light would reshape how fleets are armed and defended.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Invisibility Shield
Triplanetary, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1934
A covering or device that hides a physical object from ordinary human sight.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a field that hides whole ships or bases from watchers would change how forces are found and struck.
Who is paid. Assuming it is bought to hide forces in war, governments pay, and assuming rivals learn to copy it the established arms suppliers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Violet-Gun (Ion Gun)
The Brain Stealers of Mars, John W. Campbell · 1936
A pulp-era sidearm that fires a burst of ultraviolet energy.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A beam weapon carried in the hand does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Blast Rifle
Exiles of the Stratosphere, Frank Belknap Long, Jr. · 1937
A long gun that throws a short burst of energy at close range.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Assuming a soldier carries it, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Spacecraft Invisibility Electronics
One Against The Legion, Jack Williamson · 1939
Electronic systems that hide a spacecraft from radar and other detectors.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A ship that detectors cannot find can strike first and escape, which changes what a fleet is worth.
Who is paid. Governments pay to hide their warships, and assuming rivals learn to copy it, as with other ways of hiding forces, the established arms suppliers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Blastick
The Traitor, Kurt von Rachen · 1941
A handheld gun that fires a burning ray.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Assuming a soldier carries it, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Soft Weapon
The Soft Weapon, Larry Niven · 1967
A fictional shape-changing device with multiple functions in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Assuming it serves as many weapons and tools in one, it would replace much of what a soldier carries.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and assuming rival makers learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Laser Finger
The Forever War, Jack C. Haldeman · 1974
A fictional weapon attachment on a soldier's powered armour in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Fitted to one soldier's armour, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Razorgirl
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
A surgical body modification in the story that gives a person concealed built-in weapons.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A weapon built into the body appeals to a few bodyguards, soldiers and enthusiasts and stays a niche.
Who is paid. Assuming it is legal to buy as in the story, individuals pay for themselves, and the clinics and surgeons already able to do such work collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Spetsdöd
The Man Who Never Missed, Steve Perry · 1985
A fictional firearm integrated with its user's body in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A weapon built into the body appeals to a few bodyguards, soldiers and enthusiasts and stays a niche.
Who is paid. Assuming it is legal to buy as in the story, individuals pay for themselves, and the clinics and surgeons already able to do such work collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Kamikaze Andy
Tekwar, William Shatner · 1989
A fictional android used for targeted killings in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A machine built for single secret killings serves only a few covert services, which makes it a niche.
Who is paid. Secret services pay, and it is a small variant of machines the existing arms and robot makers already build, so they collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Assassin Bird
Sparrowhawk, Thomas A. Easton · 1990
A fictional genetically altered bird used as a weapon in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A bird bred to kill is a specialist tool for a narrow trade.
Who is paid. State agencies would pay, and since a buyer or a rival could breed from the birds once they exist, no breeder holds them alone and the suppliers such agencies already use collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Orbital Weapon Lancet (OWL)
Quantico, Greg Bear · 2007
A fictional space-based strike weapon held in reserve in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Striking any point on the ground from orbit would be a major arm of a great power's forces.
Who is paid. Governments pay, and the rocket and arms firms that already launch and build for them would win the work, since the idea itself is simple.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Surveillance, identity and control · 2
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cephalic Sniffer
Clans of the Alphane Moon, Philip K. Dick · 1964
A device that locates a specific person by their brain activity.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Finding any chosen person wherever they are would change police work, rescue and manhunts enough to be an industry.
Who is paid. Police and security services pay, and once shown to work others could build it, so existing police suppliers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Skull Bug
The Computer Connection, Alfred Bester · 1974
An implant placed in the head at birth for tracking and controlling a person.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.
Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Food, agriculture and environment · 2
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Red Weed (Terraforming Plant)
The War of the Worlds, H.G. Wells · 1898
A foreign plant species that spreads rapidly and remakes the landscape it invades.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A plant that overruns and remakes every landscape it reaches is a hazard, and it is banned.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller gains.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Homing Butterflies
Moxyland, Lauren Beukes · 2008
Engineered butterflies that stay with a bunch of flowers after it is bought.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Butterflies that stay with a bouquet are a pretty extra on a gift.
Who is paid. People buy them with their flowers, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the florists and breeders that already hold stock and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Home and everyday life · 8
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cubic City
The Cubic City, Louis Tucker, D.D. · 1929
An entire town housed within one enormous structure, with homes, work and services stacked inside.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Housing a whole town with its work and services in a single structure is a building project on the scale of an industry.
Who is paid. Residents buy or lease the homes and shops inside, as they would in any large development, and since others could put up such a structure the developers and landowners who already hold the sites collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Adjustable House
Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943
A home whose flexible walls and frame can be reshaped to change its layout.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A home whose layout can be changed spares some rebuilding, but it is a feature of a house and does not make housing cheaper or more plentiful.
Who is paid. Home owners pay, and once the flexible material is known the builders and developers who already hold land and customers would collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pod-Chair
The Houses of Iszm, Jack Vance · 1954
A seat cultivated as a living plant and shaped as it grows to serve as furniture.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A chair grown as a living plant is a novel way to get ordinary furniture.
Who is paid. Households buy it, and I assumed an ordinary plant trained into shape, which any grower could do, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Static House
The Thousand Dreams of Stellavista, J.G. Ballard · 1962
A formerly shape-shifting house now locked into a single fixed form.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Locked into a fixed form, this house has lost the reshaping that made its kind special and is an ordinary home.
Who is paid. Households buy it as they would any house, and since houses are easy to build the builders and developers who already hold land and customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
UHF Shower
Eye of Cat, Roger Zelazny · 1982
A bathing booth that cleans the body with radio waves in place of water.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A booth that cleans the body with no water at all would cut what homes spend on water and plumbing, which is more than a comfort.
Who is paid. Households buy it, and I assumed it can be copied, so the firms that already make and fit bathroom fixtures collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Free-fall Couch
Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989
A piece of furniture that gives the feeling of floating weightless.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The feeling of floating is a pleasant novelty for rest.
Who is paid. People buy it for the home, and I assume other furniture makers could copy it once it had been seen.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bambakias Hotel
Distraction, Bruce Sterling · 1998
A self-directing building project that works to get itself constructed.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A building project that plans and drives its own construction would change the cost of building.
Who is paid. Developers pay for it, and I assume the directing system is software others could write once it had been shown to work, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Science Chair
Titanium Noir, Nick Harkaway · 2023
Furniture cultivated from the owner's own genetic material to fit them comfortably.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A chair grown to fit its owner is a novel way to get comfortable furniture.
Who is paid. People buy it for the home, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the breeders and furnishing shops that already hold stock and showrooms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Society and economy · 7
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Laws Against Human Drivers
Photo Control, Bernard Brown · 1934
Legislation bans people from driving so that only self-driving vehicles share public roads, cutting crashes.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A ban on human driving is a law; the gain goes to makers of self-driving vehicles, which are a separate thing.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Outbound Interplanetary Traffic
One Against The Legion, Jack Williamson · 1939
Regulations that govern ships travelling outward between planets.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Permits, papers and traffic rules for space travel are set by governments, not sold as a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Interplanetary Clearance
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
Official paperwork and permits a craft must clear before leaving crowded launch ports.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Permits, papers and traffic rules for space travel are set by governments, not sold as a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Jurymech
Wanted in Surgery, Harlan Ellison · 1957
A machine that weighs the evidence and delivers a verdict in place of a human jury.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A machine that decides cases fairly would change the cost and speed of the courts.
Who is paid. A government pays for it, and since others could build such a machine once it exists, the suppliers that already hold contracts for courts and public offices collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Judge
Robot Justice, Harry Harrison · 1959
A thinking machine that presides over court cases, complete with judicial gown.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A machine that decides cases fairly would change the cost and speed of the courts.
Who is paid. A government pays for it, and since others could build such a machine once it exists, the suppliers that already hold contracts for courts and public offices collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Truffle Skins
The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965
Genetically unique animal hides used as unforgeable money.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Money that cannot be forged saves the cost of fakes, a modest gain; unlike the fossil shells it is bred to order.
Who is paid. The government that issues the money pays, and whoever controls the breeding of the animals cannot be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ultimate Football League (UFL)
The Sun Also Explodes, Chris Nakashima-Brown · 2008
A sports league that places no limits on bodily enhancement of players.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A new spectator sport is entertainment, a niche.
Who is paid. Fans pay to watch, and since a sport is easy to copy, those who already own teams, grounds and broadcast deals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.