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Futures · imagined

Imagined in the 1890s

The technologies stories first imagined in this decade, by kind, with whether each has been built since and who would keep the profit.

By kind of technology

Space travel and habitats · 12
Illustration of Arctic Signal Light: A powerful beacon on the ground that sends signals to vessels travelling in space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Arctic Signal Light

A Journey In Other Worlds, John Jacob Astor IV · 1894

A powerful beacon on the ground that sends signals to vessels travelling in space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A ground beacon for ships in space is a minor aid to navigation.

Who is paid. A beacon serves all ships and none can be charged, so a government pays, and a bright light is something many firms could build.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Double-Door Vestibule: An airlock chamber that lets crew pass between a pressurised cabin and vacuum without losing air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Double-Door Vestibule

A Journey In Other Worlds, John Jacob Astor IV · 1894

An airlock chamber that lets crew pass between a pressurised cabin and vacuum without losing air.

built in the 1960s, about 70 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a necessary fitting on any crewed craft, but only a part of the ship.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and shipbuilders make it themselves since nothing stops others copying it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space-ship: A craft for carrying people or cargo beyond Earth's atmosphere.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space-ship

A Journey In Other Worlds, John Jacob Astor IV · 1894

A craft for carrying people or cargo beyond Earth's atmosphere.

built in the 1950s, about 60 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A working vessel for travel between worlds would found a transport industry of its own.

Who is paid. Carriers and expedition firms buy ships, and many yards could build them once shown how, so established vehicle builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electric Gun (Mass Driver): An electromagnetic accelerator that hurls payload capsules fast enough to reach orbit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electric Gun (Mass Driver)

A Trip to Venus, John Munro · 1897

An electromagnetic accelerator that hurls payload capsules fast enough to reach orbit.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Flinging payloads to space without rockets would change the cost of the whole launch industry.

Who is paid. Firms with cargo to launch pay, and since others could build such a track or gun the gain goes to those who already own launch sites and power.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Gravitational Wave Viewer: An instrument that uses ripples in gravity to observe objects across vast cosmic distances.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gravitational Wave Viewer

Two Planets, Kurd Lasswitz · 1897

An instrument that uses ripples in gravity to observe objects across vast cosmic distances.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It adds to knowledge of the sky but yields nothing to sell, so its worth is limited to science.

Who is paid. Nobody could be charged for what it learns, so a government pays the instrument and probe builders that already hold such contracts.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Home Planet: The world on which a species first arose, treated as its point of origin.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Home Planet

In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897

The world on which a species first arose, treated as its point of origin.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a term for the planet a people came from, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Interstellar Express Car: A space vehicle built from gravity-repelling metal that reaches immense speeds between stars.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Interstellar Express Car

In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897

A space vehicle built from gravity-repelling metal that reaches immense speeds between stars.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A working ship that carries people and cargo between worlds is the base of a whole transport industry.

Who is paid. Carriers and other firms working in space buy ships, and since a second yard could build the same craft the established shipbuilders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sun-Telephone: A receiver that picks up signals given off by the Sun itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sun-Telephone

In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897

A receiver that picks up signals given off by the Sun itself.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Listening to signals from the Sun adds to knowledge, with nothing to sell from it.

Who is paid. Nobody could be charged for the findings, so a government pays the instrument and probe builders that already hold such contracts.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Air-Tight Suit: A sealed garment that keeps a person alive in the vacuum of space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Air-Tight Suit

Edison's Conquest of Mars, Garrett P. Serviss · 1898

A sealed garment that keeps a person alive in the vacuum of space.

built in the 1960s, about 70 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A suit that keeps a person alive in vacuum is vital to its wearer but serves only the few who work in space.

Who is paid. Space operators buy suits for their crews, and the few firms that already make such gear supply them since the design can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Asteroid Mining: Flying to small rocky bodies in space to extract their metals.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Asteroid Mining

Edison's Conquest of Mars, Garrett P. Serviss · 1898

Flying to small rocky bodies in space to extract their metals.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Metal and other materials from space rocks would be an industry of its own and could change the cost of raw materials.

Who is paid. Factories and builders buy the output, and since mining methods are easy to copy the firms that already own ships and refineries collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electrical 'Tether': A line or device that lets a floating spacewalker get safely back to the ship.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electrical 'Tether'

Edison's Conquest of Mars, Garrett P. Serviss · 1898

A line or device that lets a floating spacewalker get safely back to the ship.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It keeps a spacewalker attached to the ship, a simple safety item for a few workers.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for crews, and it is simple hardware that many workshops could make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Walk: Leaving a spacecraft briefly to move around outside it in open space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Walk

Edison's Conquest of Mars, Garrett P. Serviss · 1898

Leaving a spacecraft briefly to move around outside it in open space.

built in 1965, 67 years after it was imagined

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a way of working outside a ship, done with the suit and tether judged elsewhere, not a product of its own.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Communication, media and displays · 6
Illustration of Planetary Telegraphing: Exchanging messages with beings believed to live on the Sun's other planets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Planetary Telegraphing

In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897

Exchanging messages with beings believed to live on the Sun's other planets.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Messages to beings only believed to live on other planets satisfy curiosity and earn nothing unless someone answers.

Who is paid. Nobody could be charged for it one by one, so a government pays, and the observatories and builders that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Aerial Telegraph: Radio links letting people in sealed suits talk to each other.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Aerial Telegraph

Edison's Conquest of Mars, Garrett P. Serviss · 1898

Radio links letting people in sealed suits talk to each other.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Radio between people in sealed suits is essential to the few who work in such suits and of no use to anyone else.

Who is paid. Assuming the suits are worn by space crews and the like, a government pays, and the firms that already supply suits and radios to such programmes collect because the radio is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Babble Machine: Loudspeaker devices that pour a constant stream of news, gossip and propaganda at the public.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Babble Machine

When the Sleeper Wakes, H.G. Wells · 1899

Loudspeaker devices that pour a constant stream of news, gossip and propaganda at the public.

built in 1927, 28 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A constant stream of news and persuasion aimed at the public is broadcasting, which is an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Advertisers and political interests pay to reach the crowd, the description names no scarce channels and the loudspeakers are easy to copy, so the news firms that already own the audience and the places the speakers stand collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of DVD/VCR (Entertainment Player): A machine that plays back stored films or shows for viewing on demand.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

DVD/VCR (Entertainment Player)

When the Sleeper Wakes, H.G. Wells · 1899

A machine that plays back stored films or shows for viewing on demand.

built in 1996, 97 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Watching stored films whenever you choose is home entertainment, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Households buy the player and the films, players are easy to copy, and the studios that own the films collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Kinetiscope Appliance: A pocket-sized device that displays a range of pictures, both real and invented.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Kinetiscope Appliance

When the Sleeper Wakes, H.G. Wells · 1899

A pocket-sized device that displays a range of pictures, both real and invented.

built in the 2010s, about 120 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A personal screen for watching films and pictures anywhere is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; many firms can make the device, so those who already own the films and the ways to deliver them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Moving Picture Player: A personal screen machine that replays recorded films for one viewer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Moving Picture Player

When the Sleeper Wakes, H.G. Wells · 1899

A personal screen machine that replays recorded films for one viewer.

built in 1996, 97 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A personal screen for watching films and pictures anywhere is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; many firms can make the device, so those who already own the films and the ways to deliver them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Robotics and automation · 10
Illustration of Manufactured Wife: A lifelike artificial companion built to order and programmed to suit its owner's preferences.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Manufactured Wife

A Wife Manufactured to Order, Alice W. Fuller · 1895

A lifelike artificial companion built to order and programmed to suit its owner's preferences.

built in the 2010s, about 120 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A lifelike companion made to suit its owner would be worth an industry of its own, though it does not meet a basic need for most.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and as many could make such machines the firms with factories and well-liked brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Autonomous Digging Machine: A machine that excavates earth by itself without a human operator.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Autonomous Digging Machine

The War of the Worlds, H.G. Wells · 1898

A machine that excavates earth by itself without a human operator.

built in the 2010s, about 120 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Digging and hauling with no crew would cut the cost of mining and earthworks.

Who is paid. Mining and building firms buy them, and the heavy-equipment makers who already supply those firms can copy the idea and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Quasi-Muscles (Sham Musculature): Artificial contracting fibres that power machines much as muscles power animals.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Quasi-Muscles (Sham Musculature)

The War of the Worlds, H.G. Wells · 1898

Artificial contracting fibres that power machines much as muscles power animals.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Fibres that pull like muscle would be a new kind of motor for machines of many sorts, changing how they are built.

Who is paid. Machine builders buy the fibres, and as others could learn to make them the established makers of motors and machine parts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Biomimicry: Building machines that move with the smooth, supple grace of living animals.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Biomimicry

The War of the Worlds, H.G. Wells · 1898

Building machines that move with the smooth, supple grace of living animals.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Giving machines the supple movement of animals is a way of building, valued only as part of the machines made with it.

Who is paid. Machine buyers pay for it in the price, and any maker can design this way, so nothing more is kept for it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Spider (Handling Machine): A many-limbed working machine operated as though it were part of its driver's own body.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Spider (Handling Machine)

The War of the Worlds, H.G. Wells · 1898

A many-limbed working machine operated as though it were part of its driver's own body.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A many-limbed machine worked as if it were the driver's own body is a skilled tool for handling and lifting, but still a tool that needs its operator.

Who is paid. Firms buy it for their own work, and such limbs and controls are easy for many makers to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Steel Tentacle: Bendable metal limbs that can carry a machine's weight and also grip things.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Steel Tentacle

The War of the Worlds, H.G. Wells · 1898

Bendable metal limbs that can carry a machine's weight and also grip things.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Bendable limbs that bear weight and grip are a useful working part of a machine, a feature.

Who is paid. Firms pay for them within the price of the machine, and such limbs are easy for many makers to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Tripod: A towering three-legged metal war machine that strides over the landscape.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tripod

The War of the Worlds, H.G. Wells · 1898

A towering three-legged metal war machine that strides over the landscape.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A towering walking war machine would be a main weapon of an army, worth an arms industry of its own.

Who is paid. Governments buy it for their armies, and the arms makers that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Automatic Valet: A robot servant that dresses, attends and waits on its owner.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automatic Valet

Looking Forward: A Dream of the United States of the Americas in 1999, Arthur Bird · 1899

A robot servant that dresses, attends and waits on its owner.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A robot that dresses, attends and waits on its owner is a full personal servant, worth an industry of its own, though it serves the home alone and not work at large.

Who is paid. Families buy it like any large appliance, and it is easy enough to copy that the appliance makers with factories, shops and trusted brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electric-Automatic Household Robot Cook: An automated kitchen appliance that prepares complete meals at home without a human cook.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electric-Automatic Household Robot Cook

Ely's Automatic Housemaid, Elizabeth Bellamy · 1899

An automated kitchen appliance that prepares complete meals at home without a human cook.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An appliance that cooks whole meals at home takes over a daily chore, a narrower job than a full servant does.

Who is paid. Families buy it, and since it can be copied the kitchen-appliance makers with factories, shops and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electric-Automatic Housemaid Robot (Automaton): A household robot that handles cleaning and other domestic chores on its own.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electric-Automatic Housemaid Robot (Automaton)

Ely's Automatic Housemaid, Elizabeth Bellamy · 1899

A household robot that handles cleaning and other domestic chores on its own.

built in 2002, 103 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that takes over housework would be worth an industry of its own, though it serves the home alone and not work at large.

Who is paid. Families buy it like any large appliance, and it is easy enough to copy that the appliance makers with factories, shops and trusted brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Medicine, biotech and longevity · 2
Illustration of Monsters Manufactured: Surgically remaking animals so their bodies and minds approach human form.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Monsters Manufactured

The Island of Dr. Moreau, H.G. Wells · 1896

Surgically remaking animals so their bodies and minds approach human form.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. The description gives the remade animals no use that a buyer would pay for, unlike made creatures bred for work or as servants, so there is nothing to price.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Vivification: Keeping a body dormant at normal warmth for centuries and then bringing it back to life.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vivification

In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897

Keeping a body dormant at normal warmth for centuries and then bringing it back to life.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Putting people safely into long dormancy would make very long journeys possible and give hospitals time to treat the gravely ill.

Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Mind and neurotechnology · 1
Illustration of Glow-Worm Living: A daily rhythm that breaks rest into short naps between stretches of work and leisure.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Glow-Worm Living

In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897

A daily rhythm that breaks rest into short naps between stretches of work and leisure.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a daily routine of naps and waking, not a thing that can be made and sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Transport and mobility · 11
Illustration of Air-Ship (VTOL Airship): A flying craft that can rise straight up and land without a runway.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Air-Ship (VTOL Airship)

The Angel of the Revolution, George Griffith · 1893

A flying craft that can rise straight up and land without a runway.

built in the 1950s, about 60 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A craft that needs no runway can reach rooftops, ships and wild country, which is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Rescue services, armies and offshore firms buy it, and the established aircraft builders collect because the design can be copied but the factories and safety approval cannot quickly be had.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electric Phaetons (Electric Cars): Road vehicles that run wholly on electric motors instead of horses or engines.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electric Phaetons (Electric Cars)

A Journey In Other Worlds, John Jacob Astor IV · 1894

Road vehicles that run wholly on electric motors instead of horses or engines.

built in the 1890s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Cars that run on electric motors change the fuel and upkeep costs of the whole car industry, though they make the same trips.

Who is paid. Drivers buy them, and electric motors and batteries can be had by any maker, so the firms with factories, dealers and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Magnetic Railroads: Trains driven along their track by powerful electromagnets rather than steam.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magnetic Railroads

A Journey In Other Worlds, John Jacob Astor IV · 1894

Trains driven along their track by powerful electromagnets rather than steam.

built in the 1980s, about 90 years after it was imagined

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Trains pushed along by magnets run fast and clean, which changes the cost of travel by rail.

Who is paid. Governments pay for a public way of this size, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Marine Spider (Hydrofoil): A boat that lifts its hull out of the water on underwater wings to go faster.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Marine Spider (Hydrofoil)

A Journey In Other Worlds, John Jacob Astor IV · 1894

A boat that lifts its hull out of the water on underwater wings to go faster.

built in the 1960s, about 70 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A hull that rides above the water is faster on short crossings but costly on large ships, so it stays a niche.

Who is paid. Ferry operators buy it, and many boat yards can build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Vehicle Energy Reclamation: Capturing the energy a vehicle gains going uphill and reusing it as it rolls downhill.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vehicle Energy Reclamation

A Journey In Other Worlds, John Jacob Astor IV · 1894

Capturing the energy a vehicle gains going uphill and reusing it as it rolls downhill.

built in the 1990s, about 100 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Saving the energy of a climb for the way down cuts fuel use a little, which is a feature.

Who is paid. Owners pay for it through the price of the vehicle, and the established vehicle makers fit it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Submarine Tube: Passenger capsules shot through a pipeline laid beneath the ocean between continents.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Submarine Tube

An Express of the Future, Michel Verne · 1895

Passenger capsules shot through a pipeline laid beneath the ocean between continents.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Fast capsules in sealed tubes would rival trains and aircraft on their routes, which changes the cost of travel between cities; this one runs under the ocean.

Who is paid. Governments pay for a public way of this size, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Electric Bicycle: A bicycle driven by a battery-powered motor.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electric Bicycle

In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897

A bicycle driven by a battery-powered motor.

built in the 1890s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A bicycle with a motor makes cheap personal travel easy for many people who would not pedal far, which is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Riders buy it, and many small factories can bolt a motor and battery to a frame, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Walking Balloon: A gas-lifted craft with legs that strides lightly across rough terrain.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Walking Balloon

In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897

A gas-lifted craft with legs that strides lightly across rough terrain.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lighter-than-air craft is slow and carries little beside aircraft and trains, so it stays a niche; legs let this one cross rough ground.

Who is paid. Operators buy it, and airships are simple enough for many builders to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Aerocycle (Ærocycle): A pedal-driven flying bicycle lifted into the air by its rider's own effort.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Aerocycle (Ærocycle)

Looking Forward: A Dream of the United States of the Americas in 1999, Arthur Bird · 1899

A pedal-driven flying bicycle lifted into the air by its rider's own effort.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Flying on muscle alone is a sport for the fit, not a way of getting about.

Who is paid. Hobbyists buy it, and any maker of light frames and wings could build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Aerodrome (Ærodromes): Powered machines that carry people through the air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Aerodrome (Ærodromes)

Looking Forward: A Dream of the United States of the Americas in 1999, Arthur Bird · 1899

Powered machines that carry people through the air.

built in 1903, 4 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Powered flight for passengers is an industry of its own that shrank the time between distant cities.

Who is paid. Airlines buy the machines, and since flight itself was quickly copied, the few builders with the factories and safety approval collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Moving Roadway: A continuously moving street surface, fitted with seats and stalls, that carries riders around bends.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Moving Roadway

When the Sleeper Wakes, H.G. Wells · 1899

A continuously moving street surface, fitted with seats and stalls, that carries riders around bends.

built in the 1950s, about 60 years after it was imagined

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A street that carries its riders would replace buses and cars on its route, which changes the cost of getting about a city.

Who is paid. Governments pay for a public way of this size, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Energy and power · 1
Illustration of Rooftop Windmill: A small wind turbine on a house that generates power for the household.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rooftop Windmill

A Journey In Other Worlds, John Jacob Astor IV · 1894

A small wind turbine on a house that generates power for the household.

built in the 1970s, about 80 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A small windmill on a house adds some power but is not promised to run the whole home, unlike the home solar plant.

Who is paid. Households buy it for themselves, and any workshop can make one so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Materials, manufacturing and construction · 7
Illustration of Atomic Microscopy: An instrument that makes single molecules and their atoms visible.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atomic Microscopy

The Crack of Doom, Robert Cromie · 1895

An instrument that makes single molecules and their atoms visible.

built in 1981, 86 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Seeing single atoms is prized by laboratories, but few buyers need such an instrument.

Who is paid. Laboratories and chip makers buy it, and the few established makers of fine instruments have the skill and the customers.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Artificial Silk: A silky textile manufactured chemically without any help from insects.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Artificial Silk

In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897

A silky textile manufactured chemically without any help from insects.

built in the 1930s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Unlike man-made cloth in general, this replaces one costly fabric, which is still worth an industry.

Who is paid. People pay for it in the clothes they buy, and so many mills can make such fibre that buyers keep nearly all the gain.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Helium Metal: A mined mineral that gives off the spectral signature of the element helium.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Helium Metal

In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897

A mined mineral that gives off the spectral signature of the element helium.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description gives the mineral no use, so I assumed it is mined as a modest source of a useful gas.

Who is paid. Industrial users would buy what is mined, and unlike the scarce gem and the wonder ore nothing here is said to be rare or without substitute, so the many mining firms that own such ground would sell it and none could hold buyers to one source.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Automated Surface Measurement: A machine that precisely gauges the dimensions of a surface without manual measuring.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automated Surface Measurement

When the Sleeper Wakes, H.G. Wells · 1899

A machine that precisely gauges the dimensions of a surface without manual measuring.

built in the 1970s, about 80 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Measuring a surface by machine saves workshop time, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. Factories and tailors buy it, and many instrument makers can build such a gauge, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Eadhamite: A man-made paving substance that gives roads an unusually slick, even finish.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Eadhamite

When the Sleeper Wakes, H.G. Wells · 1899

A man-made paving substance that gives roads an unusually slick, even finish.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Smooth, long-lasting roads would cut the cost of moving people and goods everywhere.

Who is paid. Governments pay for roads, and the paving firms that already hold road contracts can all lay it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Individualized Clothing Manufacture: Machines that cut and assemble garments to fit each customer's body from recorded measurements.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Individualized Clothing Manufacture

When the Sleeper Wakes, H.G. Wells · 1899

Machines that cut and assemble garments to fit each customer's body from recorded measurements.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Clothes cut by machine to fit each body would change the clothing trade's costs and waste.

Who is paid. People buy the clothes, and the machines can be copied, so clothing brands and shops with customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Nickalum: An aluminium-based alloy solidified inside a magnetic field to give it great strength.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nickalum

Looking Forward: A Dream of the United States of the Americas in 1999, Arthur Bird · 1899

An aluminium-based alloy solidified inside a magnetic field to give it great strength.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A very strong aluminium alloy would cut the weight and cost of vehicles and structures.

Who is paid. Vehicle and building firms buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established metal makers with furnaces and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Weapons and warfare · 11
Illustration of Air-to-Surface Missile: A projectile launched from an aircraft at a target on the ground below.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Air-to-Surface Missile

The Angel of the Revolution, George Griffith · 1893

A projectile launched from an aircraft at a target on the ground below.

built in the 1940s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Striking an enemy from the air changed how wars are fought and supports a whole industry of warplanes and their arms.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of War-Balloon (Navigable Aerostat): Giant steerable gas-filled airships used to fight wars from above.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

War-Balloon (Navigable Aerostat)

The Angel of the Revolution, George Griffith · 1893

Giant steerable gas-filled airships used to fight wars from above.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged on the promise of ruling a war from the air, which real airships never delivered, a fighting aircraft fleet is among the biggest things a state buys.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and since the designs can be copied, the builders that already own the works and hold the army's supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Atomic Energy: Releasing the energy locked inside atoms to create an enormously destructive explosion.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atomic Energy

The Crack of Doom, Robert Cromie · 1895

Releasing the energy locked inside atoms to create an enormously destructive explosion.

built in 1939, 44 years after it was imagined

A large prizeA government pays; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A weapon that can end a war or prevent one is worth a great deal to the state that holds it.

Who is paid. Only governments pay for it, and only the handful of builders a state allows near the material may make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Fulgurator: A self-propelled explosive projectile with enormous destructive power.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fulgurator

Facing The Flag, Jules Verne · 1896

A self-propelled explosive projectile with enormous destructive power.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Self-propelled and guided explosives became the main heavy weapon of modern forces, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and since the idea is easy to copy once shown, the arms firms that already hold the supply contracts and factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Automatic Shell: A self-driven shell that tunnels through any barrier, even straight through the planet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automatic Shell

The Great Stone of Sardis, Frank Stockton · 1897

A self-driven shell that tunnels through any barrier, even straight through the planet.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a shell that passes through any barrier leaves no armour or shelter able to protect, a wider use than a weapon made only against buried shelters.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and assuming rival makers learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Magnetic Shell: An explosive projectile that is drawn toward iron-hulled warships by magnetism.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magnetic Shell

The Great Stone of Sardis, Frank Stockton · 1897

An explosive projectile that is drawn toward iron-hulled warships by magnetism.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Self-propelled and guided explosives became the main heavy weapon of modern forces, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and since the idea is easy to copy once shown, the arms firms that already hold the supply contracts and factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Biological Warfare: Deliberately using germs to sicken or destroy an enemy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Biological Warfare

The War of the Worlds, H.G. Wells · 1898

Deliberately using germs to sicken or destroy an enemy.

built in the 1900s, about 10 years after it was imagined

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Spreading disease on purpose is a hazard to everyone and no one may lawfully buy it.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Black Smoke: A lethal vapour released from canisters that spreads over the ground and kills.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Black Smoke

The War of the Worlds, H.G. Wells · 1898

A lethal vapour released from canisters that spreads over the ground and kills.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a poison meant to kill or fell people in bulk, which no one may lawfully buy.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Disintegrator: A weapon that shatters anything it strikes into scattered molecules.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Disintegrator

Edison's Conquest of Mars, Garrett P. Serviss · 1898

A weapon that shatters anything it strikes into scattered molecules.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a weapon that destroys whatever it strikes leaves no armour, wall or hull able to protect, which would change how wars are fought.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and assuming rival makers learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Heat Ray: A weapon that projects an invisible beam of intense heat to burn targets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Heat Ray

The War of the Worlds, H.G. Wells · 1898

A weapon that projects an invisible beam of intense heat to burn targets.

built in the 1960s, about 70 years after it was imagined

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Assuming a soldier carries it, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Aerial Dynamite Ships: Aircraft that fly over enemy territory and release bombs onto targets below.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Aerial Dynamite Ships

Looking Forward: A Dream of the United States of the Americas in 1999, Arthur Bird · 1899

Aircraft that fly over enemy territory and release bombs onto targets below.

built in the 1910s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Striking an enemy from the air changed how wars are fought and supports a whole industry of warplanes and their arms.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Surveillance, identity and control · 2
Illustration of Instantaneous Kodaks (Traffic Control): Cameras that photograph speeding vehicles so police can enforce traffic limits.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Instantaneous Kodaks (Traffic Control)

A Journey In Other Worlds, John Jacob Astor IV · 1894

Cameras that photograph speeding vehicles so police can enforce traffic limits.

built in the 1960s, about 70 years after it was imagined

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Catching speeders without an officer saves some police labour but is a narrow tool.

Who is paid. Road authorities pay, and the cameras are easy to copy, so firms that already hold traffic supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Magnetic Eyes: An instrument for watching people or things from a distance without being there.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magnetic Eyes

A Journey In Other Worlds, John Jacob Astor IV · 1894

An instrument for watching people or things from a distance without being there.

built in the 1990s, about 100 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Watching a place from afar without being there became the basis of a whole security camera industry.

Who is paid. Firms and public bodies buy cameras to guard their sites, and so many makers can build them that no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Food, agriculture and environment · 5
Illustration of Aeriduct (Rain Maker): A method for making clouds release precipitation on demand.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Aeriduct (Rain Maker)

A Journey In Other Worlds, John Jacob Astor IV · 1894

A method for making clouds release precipitation on demand.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Rain on demand would be worth a great deal to farming and water supply in dry regions, though it only brings down water that is already in the sky.

Who is paid. Rain falls on everyone below, so I assumed governments pay, and spraying clouds is simple enough that many operators could do it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Life-Brew: An alcohol-free drink crafted to taste and feel like wine.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Life-Brew

In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897

An alcohol-free drink crafted to taste and feel like wine.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. This is a small convenience or novelty in what people drink.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and since the recipe is easy to copy the drink brands that already own shelf space collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Red Weed (Terraforming Plant): A foreign plant species that spreads rapidly and remakes the landscape it invades.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Red Weed (Terraforming Plant)

The War of the Worlds, H.G. Wells · 1898

A foreign plant species that spreads rapidly and remakes the landscape it invades.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A plant that overruns and remakes every landscape it reaches is a hazard, and it is banned.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller gains.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electrical Farming Implements: Powered machinery that takes over the heavy labour of farming.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electrical Farming Implements

Looking Forward: A Dream of the United States of the Americas in 1999, Arthur Bird · 1899

Powered machinery that takes over the heavy labour of farming.

built in the 1900s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Machines taking over the heavy work of farming freed most people from the land, which changed how most people work.

Who is paid. Farmers buy the machines, and they are easy to copy, so the makers with factories, dealers and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Nutritious Pellets: A capsule meant to supply a person's full daily nourishment, replacing ordinary meals.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nutritious Pellets

Looking Forward: A Dream of the United States of the Americas in 1999, Arthur Bird · 1899

A capsule meant to supply a person's full daily nourishment, replacing ordinary meals.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a capsule that stands in for a whole day of meals would be an industry of its own and would change how armies, travellers and the hungry are fed, though I assumed most people would still eat ordinary meals for pleasure.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and I assumed the recipe can be copied once it is known, so the food and pharmacy brands with shop space collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Home and everyday life · 3
Illustration of Undersea City: A large settlement on the seabed sealed beneath a transparent dome.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Undersea City

The Crystal City Under the Sea, Andre Laurie · 1895

A large settlement on the seabed sealed beneath a transparent dome.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A large settlement on the seabed would open new living space, though few would need to live there.

Who is paid. Unlike a town inside a building on ordinary land, the dome and seabed works shelter everyone at once and no resident could be charged singly for them, so I assumed a government pays and the big building firms that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Automatic Door: A doorway panel that opens by itself when someone approaches.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automatic Door

When the Sleeper Wakes, H.G. Wells · 1899

A doorway panel that opens by itself when someone approaches.

built in the 1960s, about 70 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A door that opens itself is a convenience for shops and busy buildings.

Who is paid. Shops and building owners buy it, and the firms that already fit and service doors in buildings collect, since the mechanism is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Town In One Building: A single enormous structure containing housing, shops and services for a whole community.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Town In One Building

When the Sleeper Wakes, H.G. Wells · 1899

A single enormous structure containing housing, shops and services for a whole community.

built in the 2020s, about 130 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A whole town inside a building is a new way of housing and serving a community.

Who is paid. Residents buy or lease the homes and shops inside, as they would in any large development, and since others could put up such a structure the developers and landowners who already hold the sites collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Exotic physics · 3
Illustration of Time Machine: A vehicle that lets its rider travel forward or backward through time at will.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Time Machine

The Time Machine, H.G. Wells · 1895

A vehicle that lets its rider travel forward or backward through time at will.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Reaching other times would be worth an industry in study, salvage and statecraft, though few people would need it day to day.

Who is paid. I assume a state would keep for itself a machine that can alter history, so a government pays and its established contractors build it, since others could copy it once shown.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Invisibility: Treating a person's body so light passes straight through it, leaving them unseen.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Invisibility

The Invisible Man, H.G. Wells · 1897

Treating a person's body so light passes straight through it, leaving them unseen.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Making one person unseen is useful to spies and soldiers and to few honest buyers.

Who is paid. I assume the public would be barred from it, so spy services and armies pay and their usual suppliers provide the treatment.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Photic Borer (Artesian Ray): A beam that penetrates deep into solid rock and lights up a slice of the ground for viewing.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Photic Borer (Artesian Ray)

The Great Stone of Sardis, Frank Stockton · 1897

A beam that penetrates deep into solid rock and lights up a slice of the ground for viewing.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Seeing deep into solid ground would change the cost of finding ore, oil and water.

Who is paid. Mining and drilling firms would buy it, and the established makers of survey equipment could copy it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Society and economy · 3
Illustration of Government Lethal Chamber: State-run facilities where citizens may lawfully and painlessly end their own lives.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Government Lethal Chamber

The Repairer of Reputations, Robert W. Chambers · 1895

State-run facilities where citizens may lawfully and painlessly end their own lives.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A place for a chosen death would serve few people, so it is a niche.

Who is paid. The state runs it and pays, and the means are simple enough that any supplier could provide them.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Noninterference With Other Worlds: A rule that visitors must not meddle in the development of other worlds' inhabitants.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Noninterference With Other Worlds

In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897

A rule that visitors must not meddle in the development of other worlds' inhabitants.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A rule about how to treat other worlds and their peoples is law or guidance, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Networked World: A society whose daily life depends on vast webs of connected machines and messages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Networked World

When the Sleeper Wakes, H.G. Wells · 1899

A society whose daily life depends on vast webs of connected machines and messages.

built in 1969, 70 years after it was imagined

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This describes a whole society that depends on networks, not one thing that can be sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Ideas from Technovelgy: Science Fiction Timeline of Inventions (Bill Christensen) (archived copy), as compiled in Not Boring: Sci-Fi Idea Bank (Packy McCormick); names, works, authors and years are theirs and every description is this site's rewording. Categories, arrival decades and profit are judged by AI models, not people. Method