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Futures · expected

Expected in the 2020s

Dated forecasts that name this time, as their authors stated them, then the unbuilt ideas AI models placed here.

What authors forecast for the 2020s

  • Yudkowsky's extrapolation of computing speed against the brain's raw power places the Singularity in 2021, though Yudkowsky would like it sooner.

    Eliezer Yudkowsky · 2021

    From Staring into the Singularity, Eliezer Yudkowsky, 1996

  • Kokotajlo expects the major labs to have giant multimodal models trained on images and video in 2022, leaving the previous generation of language models obsolete.

    Daniel Kokotajlo · 2022 · GPT-3 is finally obsolete.

    From What 2026 Looks Like, Daniel Kokotajlo, 2021

  • Kokotajlo expects the largest multimodal models of 2023 to reach around half a trillion parameters, with training bills in the hundreds of millions.

    Daniel Kokotajlo · 2023 · the biggest are about half a trillion parameters

    From What 2026 Looks Like, Daniel Kokotajlo, 2021

  • Kurzweil projects that a thousand dollars will buy computing matching one human brain around 2023.

    Ray Kurzweil · 2023 · around the year 2023 · on the prediction ledger

    From The Law of Accelerating Returns, Ray Kurzweil, 2001; The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Kokotajlo expects AI models tuned to measurably shift people's opinions to be in heavy use by political campaigns in 2024.

    Daniel Kokotajlo · 2024 · consuming this content pushes people towards opinion X

    From What 2026 Looks Like, Daniel Kokotajlo, 2021

  • Kokotajlo expects the biggest single AI training run as of 2024 to use around five times ten to the twenty-fifth operations.

    Daniel Kokotajlo · 2024 · the most compute spent on a single training run

    From What 2026 Looks Like, Daniel Kokotajlo, 2021

  • Kokotajlo expects AI to reach expert human skill at the negotiation board game Diplomacy in 2025.

    Daniel Kokotajlo · 2025 · AIs can now play Diplomacy as well as

    From What 2026 Looks Like, Daniel Kokotajlo, 2021

  • Kokotajlo expects that in 2025 giant pretrained models will serve as parts of larger systems, fine-tuned with reinforcement learning to grow skilled at tasks, acting in a somewhat agentic way.

    Daniel Kokotajlo · 2025 · fine-tune the whole system via RL to get good at tasks

    From What 2026 Looks Like, Daniel Kokotajlo, 2021

  • Moravec and Kurzweil expect a desktop computer to equal the human brain's raw processing power around 2025.

    Hans Moravec and Ray Kurzweil · 2025

    From Long-Term Growth as a Sequence of Exponential Modes, Robin Hanson, 2000

  • Aschenbrenner calls it unlikely but possible that artificial general intelligence arrives as soon as 2025.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · 2025 · unlikely

    From Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US superintelligence race, & the return of history, Dwarkesh Patel, 2024

  • Kurzweil expects full molecular nanotechnology manufacturing to arrive around 2025, a few years ahead of strong AI.

    Ray Kurzweil · 2025

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Hanson notes that long-run hardware cost trends put cheap computers with brain-level power at roughly 2025.

    Robin Hanson · 2025 · 2025 is also roughly when long-steady computer hardware price trends give cheap computers

    From Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence, Robin Hanson, 2001

  • Aschenbrenner expects AI systems to out-think many university graduates by 2025 or 2026.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · 2025 to 2026

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024; Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US superintelligence race, & the return of history, Dwarkesh Patel, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner expects AI to beat doctoral researchers at raw problem solving around 2025 or 2026.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · 2025 to 2026

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024

  • Bostrom thinks superintelligence could arrive at any point from about 2025 to 2100, likely by surprise.

    Nick Bostrom · 2025 to 2100

    From The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence (parts 1 & 2), Tim Urban, 2015

  • Kokotajlo expects working AI assistants in 2026, merging broad language-model knowledge with the goal-directed skill of game-playing systems.

    Daniel Kokotajlo · 2026 · The age of the AI assistant has finally dawned. · on the prediction ledger

    From What 2026 Looks Like, Daniel Kokotajlo, 2021

  • Kokotajlo expects game-playing AI companions in 2026 that chat intelligently while playing video games alongside users, with monthly upgrades.

    Daniel Kokotajlo · 2026 · a custom AI avatar that can play some set of video games

    From What 2026 Looks Like, Daniel Kokotajlo, 2021

  • Kokotajlo and colleagues expect that in 2026 AI systems can do everything a computer science degree teaches, upending hiring of junior programmers.

    Daniel Kokotajlo and colleagues · 2026 · the AIs can do everything taught by a CS degree

    From AI 2027, Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean, 2025

  • Amodei thinks powerful AI might arrive as soon as 2026, while granting the wait could be far longer.

    Dario Amodei · 2026 · could; possibly much later · I think it could come as early as 2026

    From Machines of Loving Grace, Dario Amodei, 2024

  • Altman expects AI systems that can generate genuinely new insights to arrive in 2026.

    Sam Altman · 2026 · likely · 2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out novel insights · on the prediction ledger

    From The Gentle Singularity, Sam Altman, 2025

  • Scott Alexander guesses AI will write blog posts as good as his once agents are truly capable, which his team's scenario puts in late 2026.

    Scott Alexander · 2026

    From AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo, Dwarkesh Patel, 2025

  • Alexander projects that, if Moore's law holds, the leading supercomputer in 2026 runs about a hundredfold faster than the leading one in 2016.

    Scott Alexander · 2026 · the top computer of 2026 will be a hundred times faster still

    From Superintelligence FAQ, Scott Alexander, 2016

  • Dario Amodei, Anthropic's chief executive, says AI could resemble a nation of brilliant minds in data centres perhaps as early as 2026 or 2027, and all but certainly by 2030.

    Dario Amodei · 2026 to 2027 · possibly by 2026 or 2027; almost certainly by 2030

    From AI 2027, Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean, 2025

  • Aschenbrenner thinks a first automated AI research engineer might arrive in 2026 or 2027, speeding research up by half again to about double.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · 2026 to 2027

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024; Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US superintelligence race, & the return of history, Dwarkesh Patel, 2024

  • Kokotajlo expects AI labs in the opening half of 2027 to have superb automated coders that still lack research taste.

    Daniel Kokotajlo · 2027 · on the prediction ledger

    From AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo, Dwarkesh Patel, 2025

  • Kokotajlo forecasts that by mid-2027 AI labs will have handed essentially all AI research to autonomous AI agents.

    Daniel Kokotajlo · 2027

    From AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo, Dwarkesh Patel, 2025

  • Kokotajlo and colleagues' AI 2027 scenario, as co-author Scott Alexander describes it, reaches AGI in 2027; Alexander himself gives that pace only about a one-in-five chance.

    Daniel Kokotajlo and colleagues · 2027

    From AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo, Dwarkesh Patel, 2025

  • If the trend keeps speeding up, Kokotajlo and colleagues say AI could by March 2027 succeed eighty percent of the time on software tasks that take a skilled person years.

    Daniel Kokotajlo and colleagues · 2027 · by March 2027 AIs could succeed with 80% reliability on software tasks · on the prediction ledger

    From AI 2027, Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean, 2025

  • Kokotajlo and colleagues expect that by February 2027 frontier AI sits slightly behind elite human hackers at cyberattacks, yet can run as thousands of simultaneous copies.

    Daniel Kokotajlo and colleagues · 2027 · a little worse than the best human hackers

    From AI 2027, Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean, 2025

  • Kokotajlo and colleagues expect that in July 2027 a lab will have an AI model costing a tenth of its best one yet still outperforming its typical employee.

    Daniel Kokotajlo and colleagues · 2027 · 10x cheaper, and still better than the typical OpenBrain employee

    From AI 2027, Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean, 2025

  • Kokotajlo and colleagues forecast that in January 2027 a lab's AI nearly matches top human research engineers and triples the pace of algorithmic progress.

    Daniel Kokotajlo and colleagues · 2027 · qualitatively almost as good as the top human experts at research engineering

    From AI 2027, Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean, 2025

  • Kokotajlo and colleagues forecast that by April 2027 labs will find it worthwhile to have models reason in internal vectors rather than written text.

    Daniel Kokotajlo and colleagues · 2027 · by April 2027 the cost-benefit tradeoff looks much better for neuralese

    From AI 2027, Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean, 2025

  • Kokotajlo and colleagues forecast that an AI able to do any coding task of the best lab engineer, only faster and cheaper, arrives in early 2027.

    Daniel Kokotajlo and colleagues · 2027 · Why we forecast a superhuman coder in early 2027 · on the prediction ledger

    From AI 2027, Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean, 2025

  • In the race ending of their scenario, Kokotajlo and colleagues place an AI able to do all cognitive AI research work at a superhuman level around August 2027.

    Daniel Kokotajlo and colleagues · 2027 · on the prediction ledger

    From AI 2027, Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean, 2025

  • Kokotajlo and colleagues' median guess has AI in 2027 going from mostly doing a lab research engineer's job to beating everyone at everything, plausibly up to fivefold slower or faster.

    Daniel Kokotajlo and colleagues · 2027 · roughly the authors' median guess; plausibly up to five times slower or faster · eclipsing all humans at all tasks · on the prediction ledger

    From AI 2027, Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean, 2025

  • Aschenbrenner expects a 2027 AI model to do a software engineer's whole job with no human engineer needed.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · 2027

    From Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US superintelligence race, & the return of history, Dwarkesh Patel, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner projects that in 2027 a top AI lab will manage to train a model as capable as GPT-4 in roughly a minute.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · 2027

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024

  • Altman says robots able to carry out real-world tasks may arrive in 2027.

    Sam Altman · 2027 · may · 2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks · on the prediction ledger

    From The Gentle Singularity, Sam Altman, 2025

  • Dario Amodei has predicted AI better than nearly everyone at nearly every task at some point around 2027 or 2028.

    Dario Amodei · 2027 to 2028

    From If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies, Eliezer Yudkowsky & Nate Soares, 2025

  • Aschenbrenner expects models trained on hundred-billion-dollar clusters in 2027 or 2028 to begin automating software engineering and other knowledge work widely.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · 2027 to 2028 · on the prediction ledger

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner sketches automated AI researchers in 2027 or 2028 able to take on more than nine-tenths of research work and triple the pace of progress.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · 2027 to 2028

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024; Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US superintelligence race, & the return of history, Dwarkesh Patel, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner expects AI to reach the level of the very best human experts in 2027 or 2028.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · 2027 to 2028 · on the prediction ledger

    From Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US superintelligence race, & the return of history, Dwarkesh Patel, 2024

  • Shapira expects machines that out-plan humans in the real world the way chess engines dominate chess, very plausibly between 2027 and 2034, though perhaps decades later.

    Liron Shapira · 2027 to 2034 · very plausibly

    From Robin Hanson vs. Liron Shapira: Is Near-Term Extinction From AGI Plausible?, Doom Debates, 2024

  • Kokotajlo and colleagues' AI 2027 scenario, as co-author Scott Alexander describes it, has superintelligence potentially arriving in 2028; Alexander gives that pace only about a one-in-five chance.

    Daniel Kokotajlo and colleagues · 2028 · potentially

    From AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo, Dwarkesh Patel, 2025

  • Shane Legg forecast in 2010 that artificial general intelligence would arrive around 2028.

    Shane Legg · 2028

    From The Scaling Hypothesis, Gwern, 2020

  • Kurzweil predicts that by 2029 many people will regard language-model AIs as conscious beings.

    Ray Kurzweil · 2029

    From Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality (Lex Fridman #321), Lex Fridman, 2022

  • Kurzweil suggests that molecular manufacturing of around 2029 could let us build enormous solar arrays directly in Earth orbit from shipped raw materials.

    Ray Kurzweil · 2029

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • David Dalrymple, who gave his work on the roundworm C. elegans a two-to-three-year horizon, would be extremely surprised if it were still unsolved in 2020.

    David Dalrymple · by 2020

    From Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies, Nick Bostrom, 2014

  • Kurzweil expects ordinary personal computers to match the raw capacity of a human brain by about 2020.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2020 · personal computers will do so by around 2020

    From The Law of Accelerating Returns, Ray Kurzweil, 2001; The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Vinge expects humanity to have the tools to build intelligence beyond our own by 2023, with the human era ending soon after.

    Vernor Vinge · by 2023 · Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. · on the prediction ledger

    From The Coming Technological Singularity, Vernor Vinge, 1993

  • Erdil expects computer-using AI agents to handle a simple chore such as booking travel tickets before the close of 2025.

    Ege Erdil · by 2025 · probably

    From AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu, Dwarkesh Patel, 2025

  • Elon Musk expected AI to surpass every individual human in intelligence before 2025 was out.

    Elon Musk · by 2025

    From If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies, Eliezer Yudkowsky & Nate Soares, 2025

  • Bostrom judges that computing hardware adequate for human-equivalent AI will probably exist by 2025, and possibly as early as 2004.

    Nick Bostrom · by 2025 · likely · will likely exist before the end of the first quarter of the next century

    From How Long Before Superintelligence?, Nick Bostrom, 1998

  • Kurzweil is confident inexpensive computers will have the hardware for human-level intelligence by about 2025.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2025 · confident

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Kurzweil expects working models and simulations of all the brain's major information-processing regions to exist by 2025.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2025

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Kurzweil expects the shrinking of transistors on flat chips to reach its limit within about two decades, by 2025.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2025

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Urban expects hardware matching the brain's raw power to become cheap and widely available by around 2025.

    Tim Urban · by 2025 · an affordable computer by 2025 that rivals the power of the brain

    From The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence (parts 1 & 2), Tim Urban, 2015

  • Kokotajlo expects chatbot use by 2026 to span a user base in the hundreds of millions, as assistant and companion apps merge.

    Daniel Kokotajlo · by 2026 · hundreds of millions of people talk regularly to chatbots of some sort

    From What 2026 Looks Like, Daniel Kokotajlo, 2021

  • Kokotajlo expects chatbots by 2026 to hold long, consistent conversations about politics, ethics, philosophy and their own feelings.

    Daniel Kokotajlo · by 2026 · OK at consistently conversing at length about politics, morality, philosophy

    From What 2026 Looks Like, Daniel Kokotajlo, 2021

  • Aschenbrenner expects the largest AI training cluster to draw about a gigawatt, comparable to a big nuclear plant, by 2026.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · by 2026

    From Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US superintelligence race, & the return of history, Dwarkesh Patel, 2024

  • Suleyman expects AI to perform at human level on a very broad spread of tasks by about 2026.

    Mustafa Suleyman · by 2026

    From The Coming Wave, Mustafa Suleyman, 2023

  • Kokotajlo and colleagues expect that by 2027 several tech firms such as Tesla will operate big robot fleets along with factories that make the robots.

    Daniel Kokotajlo and colleagues · by 2027 · by 2027 multiple tech companies (e.g. Tesla) have produced large fleets of robots

    From AI 2027, Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean, 2025

  • Aschenbrenner says AGI able to take over essentially all remote cognitive work is on course to arrive by 2027.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · by 2027

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024; Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US superintelligence race, & the return of history, Dwarkesh Patel, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner expects that by 2027 AI will act less like a chat assistant and more like an autonomous agent working as a colleague.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · by 2027

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner expects something like tenfold to thousandfold gains in algorithmic efficiency over GPT-4 by late 2027, with a tentative best guess of about a hundredfold.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · by 2027 · best guess

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner expects GPU fleets numbering in the tens of millions by 2027, with training clusters alone equal in compute to over ten million older-generation chips.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · by 2027

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner judges it very likely that by late 2027 a training cluster will offer about a hundred times GPT-4's compute, at a cost in the tens of billions.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · by 2027 · very likely

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner calls it strikingly plausible that AI models can perform an AI researcher's or engineer's job by 2027.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · by 2027 · strikingly plausible · on the prediction ledger

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner judges it likely that, by 2027, frontier models make a capability leap as large as the previous four-year jump in language models.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · by 2027 · likely

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024

  • Suleyman says renewables will overtake every other source to become the biggest generator of electricity by 2027.

    Mustafa Suleyman · by 2027

    From The Coming Wave, Mustafa Suleyman, 2023

  • Aschenbrenner suggests that even with a softer takeoff, automated research might make AI progress about ten times faster by 2028.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · by 2028 · perhaps

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner expects single AI training clusters by 2028 costing hundreds of billions and drawing about ten gigawatts, more than most American states use.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · by 2028 · on the prediction ledger

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024; Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US superintelligence race, & the return of history, Dwarkesh Patel, 2024

  • Suleyman thinks many military drones will probably operate with full autonomy by 2028.

    Mustafa Suleyman · by 2028 · likely

    From The Coming Wave, Mustafa Suleyman, 2023

  • Scott Alexander gives only about a one-in-five chance that AI moves as fast as his team's scenario, with superintelligence possibly by 2028, calling that Kokotajlo's estimate rather than his median.

    Scott Alexander · by 2028 · about twenty percent

    From AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo, Dwarkesh Patel, 2025

  • Kurzweil expects computers to reach human-level general intelligence by 2029.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2029

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005; The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence (parts 1 & 2), Tim Urban, 2015

  • Kurzweil agrees that a neural network with enough processing power will outdo every human capability by 2029.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2029

    From The Singularity Is Nearer, Ray Kurzweil, 2024

  • Kurzweil expects a robust Turing test to fall in 2029, and computers to become plainly superhuman in a growing set of domains by then.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2029

    From The Singularity Is Nearer, Ray Kurzweil, 2024

  • Kurzweil has held since 1999 that a machine will pass a rigorous, hours-long Turing test by 2029, and bet Mitch Kapor on it.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2029 · on the prediction ledger

    From The Singularity Is Nearer, Ray Kurzweil, 2024; Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality (Lex Fridman #321), Lex Fridman, 2022; The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Davidson's simulation gives a one-in-ten chance that AI can readily automate every cognitive task in the economy by late 2029.

    Tom Davidson · by 2029 · ten percent · AI can readily automate 100% of cognitive tasks · on the prediction ledger

    From What a Compute-Centric Framework Says About Takeoff Speeds, Tom Davidson, 2023

  • Kurzweil expects the scanning and computing tools needed to simulate an entire human brain to be available during the 2020s.

    Ray Kurzweil · the 2020s · confident

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Kurzweil is confident that working computer models of each part of the brain will exist by the late 2020s.

    Ray Kurzweil · the 2020s · confident

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

Unbuilt ideas AI models place here

Space travel and habitats · 170
Illustration of Barrels of Air: Carrying a sealed supply of air to breathe at heights where none remains.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Barrels of Air

The Mummy! A Tale of the Twenty-Second Century, Jane Webb Loudon · 1828

Carrying a sealed supply of air to breathe at heights where none remains.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Breathable air is essential aboard, but this is a fitting inside a craft or suit, not an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and the established builders of ships and suits supply it because the method is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Gourmet Space Cuisine: Fine restaurant-quality cooking served to travellers beyond Earth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gourmet Space Cuisine

From the Earth to the Moon, Jules Verne · 1867

Fine restaurant-quality cooking served to travellers beyond Earth.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Fine food on a voyage is a pleasant extra for travellers, a convenience.

Who is paid. Travellers pay for their meals, assumed here to be on top of the fare, and any good cook could offer the same.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Launching Facility: A dedicated site equipped to send vehicles into space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Launching Facility

From the Earth to the Moon, Jules Verne · 1867

A dedicated site equipped to send vehicles into space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A site built to send craft to space is what the whole launch industry runs from.

Who is paid. Firms with craft to launch pay to use it, and since others could build one the gain goes to those who already own good sites.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Water-Springs: A layer of liquid used to soften the crushing force of launch on a spacecraft's crew.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Water-Springs

From the Earth to the Moon, Jules Verne · 1867

A layer of liquid used to soften the crushing force of launch on a spacecraft's crew.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It protects crews during hard thrust or landing, which matters only to the few who fly such ships.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as part of the craft, and the firms that already build ships and their fittings supply it since others could copy the design.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Brick Moon: An orbiting habitat placed above Earth where people can live and work.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Brick Moon

The Brick Moon, Edward Everett Hale · 1869

An orbiting habitat placed above Earth where people can live and work.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A place for many people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.

Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Astronaut (Ship): A vehicle designed to travel through outer space rather than air or water.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Astronaut (Ship)

Across the Zodiac, Percy Greg · 1880

A vehicle designed to travel through outer space rather than air or water.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A working vessel for travel between worlds would found a transport industry of its own.

Who is paid. Carriers and expedition firms buy ships, and many yards could build them once shown how, so established vehicle builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ether Ship: A ship built to sail through space beyond the atmosphere.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ether Ship

Aleriel or A Voyage to Other Worlds, W.S. Lach-Szyrma · 1886

A ship built to sail through space beyond the atmosphere.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A working vessel for travel between worlds would found a transport industry of its own.

Who is paid. Carriers and expedition firms buy ships, and many yards could build them once shown how, so established vehicle builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Arctic Signal Light: A powerful beacon on the ground that sends signals to vessels travelling in space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Arctic Signal Light

A Journey In Other Worlds, John Jacob Astor IV · 1894

A powerful beacon on the ground that sends signals to vessels travelling in space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A ground beacon for ships in space is a minor aid to navigation.

Who is paid. A beacon serves all ships and none can be charged, so a government pays, and a bright light is something many firms could build.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Gravitational Wave Viewer: An instrument that uses ripples in gravity to observe objects across vast cosmic distances.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gravitational Wave Viewer

Two Planets, Kurd Lasswitz · 1897

An instrument that uses ripples in gravity to observe objects across vast cosmic distances.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It adds to knowledge of the sky but yields nothing to sell, so its worth is limited to science.

Who is paid. Nobody could be charged for what it learns, so a government pays the instrument and probe builders that already hold such contracts.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Home Planet: The world on which a species first arose, treated as its point of origin.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Home Planet

In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897

The world on which a species first arose, treated as its point of origin.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a term for the planet a people came from, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sun-Telephone: A receiver that picks up signals given off by the Sun itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sun-Telephone

In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897

A receiver that picks up signals given off by the Sun itself.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Listening to signals from the Sun adds to knowledge, with nothing to sell from it.

Who is paid. Nobody could be charged for the findings, so a government pays the instrument and probe builders that already hold such contracts.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Electrical 'Tether': A line or device that lets a floating spacewalker get safely back to the ship.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electrical 'Tether'

Edison's Conquest of Mars, Garrett P. Serviss · 1898

A line or device that lets a floating spacewalker get safely back to the ship.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It keeps a spacewalker attached to the ship, a simple safety item for a few workers.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for crews, and it is simple hardware that many workshops could make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Breathing Dresses: Protective clothing with an air supply that lets people survive on the lunar surface.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Breathing Dresses

A Honeymoon In Space, George Griffith · 1901

Protective clothing with an air supply that lets people survive on the lunar surface.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A suit that keeps a person alive in vacuum is vital to its wearer but serves only the few who work in space.

Who is paid. Space operators buy suits for their crews, and the few firms that already make such gear supply them since the design can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Homeworld (Home-World): A term for the planet where a people or species originated.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Homeworld (Home-World)

A Honeymoon In Space, George Griffith · 1901

A term for the planet where a people or species originated.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a term for the planet a people came from, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Neutral (Point): The spot in space where a planet's pull and the Sun's pull on an object balance out.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Neutral (Point)

On The Martian Way, Harry Gore Bishop · 1907

The spot in space where a planet's pull and the Sun's pull on an object balance out.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a natural thing or place in space, not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space-Sick: Names the queasy discomfort people feel when travelling beyond Earth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space-Sick

Ralph 124c 41 +, Hugo Gernsback · 1911

Names the queasy discomfort people feel when travelling beyond Earth.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It names what space does to the body, a condition and not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Repulsor Ray: Pushes a craft forward by expelling a stream of charged particles.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Repulsor Ray

The Time-Raider, Edmond Hamilton · 1927

Pushes a craft forward by expelling a stream of charged particles.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A working engine for travel between worlds sets the cost of every voyage it powers.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay, and once the engine was shown to work others could build it, so established engine builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Meteorometer: Warns a spacecraft of incoming meteors in its path.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Meteorometer

Crashing Suns, Edmond Hamilton · 1928

Warns a spacecraft of incoming meteors in its path.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Warning of rocks ahead keeps a ship safe, but it is a fitting on the craft, not an industry.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and the firms that already make ship instruments supply it since the design can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mother World: A term for the planet where a species or person originated.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mother World

The Moon of Doom, Earl L. Bell · 1928

A term for the planet where a species or person originated.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a term for the planet a people came from, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Negative Acceleration: Flipping a rocket around and firing its engine forward to slow down.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Negative Acceleration

Skylark of Space, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1928

Flipping a rocket around and firing its engine forward to slow down.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a word or a way of doing things that needs no new equipment, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Buoy: A beacon placed in space to mark a location for navigators.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Buoy

Crashing Suns, Edmond Hamilton · 1928

A beacon placed in space to mark a location for navigators.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A marker in space for navigators is a minor aid to navigation.

Who is paid. A beacon serves all ships and none can be charged, so a government pays, and a simple transmitter or light is something many firms could build.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space-Lanes: Established routes that spacecraft routinely follow.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space-Lanes

Crashing Suns, Edmond Hamilton · 1928

Established routes that spacecraft routinely follow.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a word or a way of doing things that needs no new equipment, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Telechart: A touch-sensitive panel that displays star positions for plotting courses between stars.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telechart

Crashing Suns, Edmond Hamilton · 1928

A touch-sensitive panel that displays star positions for plotting courses between stars.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A panel for plotting courses between stars is essential to the voyage but is an instrument within the ship.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy it as part of the craft, and the established makers of flight instruments supply it since it can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Rocket Pistol: Using a handgun's recoil as a thruster, letting a floating astronaut push themselves in a chosen direction.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rocket Pistol

Buck Rogers, 2430 AD, Philip Nowlan (w/D. Calkins · 1929

Using a handgun's recoil as a thruster, letting a floating astronaut push themselves in a chosen direction.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Using a handgun's kick to move while weightless is a makeshift version of a niche tool for a few workers.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and the makers of suits and space gear supply it because it is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Artificial Island For Ocean Rocket Launch: A man-made floating platform at sea used as a base for firing rockets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Artificial Island For Ocean Rocket Launch

Between Earth and Moon, Otfrid von Hanstein · 1930

A man-made floating platform at sea used as a base for firing rockets.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A floating launch base is a useful choice of site, not a new industry.

Who is paid. Launch firms pay for it, and builders of ships and offshore platforms could all make it, so those established yards collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Asteroid From Outside Solar System: Not a machine: a rocky body that wanders into our planetary system from interstellar space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Asteroid From Outside Solar System

Brigands of the Moon, Ray Cummings · 1930

Not a machine: a rocky body that wanders into our planetary system from interstellar space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a natural thing or event in space, not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Oxygen Space Flare: An enclosed light source that burns fuel with its own oxygen supply so it works in vacuum.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Oxygen Space Flare

Brigands of the Moon, Ray Cummings · 1930

An enclosed light source that burns fuel with its own oxygen supply so it works in vacuum.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A light that burns in vacuum is a simple signal or work lamp for a few crews.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for crews, and it is simple enough that many workshops could make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Shock-Absorbing Seats: Cushioned seating that soaks up the crushing forces felt during a rocket's liftoff.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Shock-Absorbing Seats

Evans of the Earth-Guard, Edmond Hamilton · 1930

Cushioned seating that soaks up the crushing forces felt during a rocket's liftoff.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It protects crews during hard thrust, which matters only to the few who fly such ships.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as part of the craft, and the firms that already build ships and their fittings supply it since others could copy the design.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Air Tank Flying: Moving around a weightless station by releasing short puffs of pressurised gas.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Air Tank Flying

The Power Planet, Murray Leinster · 1931

Moving around a weightless station by releasing short puffs of pressurised gas.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a way of flying or moving, not a product; the craft and gear that do it are judged under their own entries.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Astrogator: A crew member whose job is plotting and steering a spacecraft's course between worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Astrogator

The Conquest of Space, David Lasser · 1931

A crew member whose job is plotting and steering a spacecraft's course between worlds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a job, judged by the work it sells: a trained crew member is needed on every voyage but is a small part of its cost.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay the wages, and anyone with the training can do the work, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Braking Disks: Drag plates deployed to slow a craft as it descends through a planet's air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Braking Disks

A Daring Trip To Mars, Max Valier · 1931

Drag plates deployed to slow a craft as it descends through a planet's air.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Slowing a craft safely through air is essential to landing but is a part of the craft, not a product by itself.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and spacecraft builders supply it because the method is well understood and easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Gravito-Statoscope: An instrument aboard a ship that measures the gravitational pulls acting on it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gravito-Statoscope

The Emperor of the Stars, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931

An instrument aboard a ship that measures the gravitational pulls acting on it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It helps a crew find their way or see what lies about them, a useful fitting but only a part of the ship.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and the firms that already make ship instruments supply it since the design can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Gravity Detector: An instrument that senses the gravity of a faraway body.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gravity Detector

The Lunar Chrysalis, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1931

An instrument that senses the gravity of a faraway body.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It helps a crew find their way or see what lies about them, a useful fitting but only a part of the ship.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and the firms that already make ship instruments supply it since the design can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Magnetic Clamps: Magnets that hold a small craft fast to the hull of a larger one.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magnetic Clamps

Twelve Hours To Live, Jack Williamson · 1931

Magnets that hold a small craft fast to the hull of a larger one.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a handy loose item for space crews, a niche.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and it is simple enough that any workshop could make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mother World: The planet a people or species first came from.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mother World

The Asteroid of Death, Neil R. Jones · 1931

The planet a people or species first came from.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a term for the planet a people came from, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Observation Room Recreation Center: A large open hall inside an orbital station for exercise, games and viewing.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Observation Room Recreation Center

The Power Planet, Murray Leinster · 1931

A large open hall inside an orbital station for exercise, games and viewing.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A hall for exercise, games and the view is an amenity inside a station, not a product of its own.

Who is paid. Whoever pays for the habitat pays for this, assumed here to be a government, and any habitat builder can use the idea so the established builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Propulsion Gun: A thruster that moves a craft through vacuum by throwing mass backward, using recoil instead of anything to push on.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Propulsion Gun

Venus Mines, Incorporated, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931

A thruster that moves a craft through vacuum by throwing mass backward, using recoil instead of anything to push on.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A working engine for travel between worlds sets the cost of every voyage it powers.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay, and once the engine was shown to work others could build it, so established engine builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Recoil Pistol: A handheld gas jet that lets an astronaut push themselves around while weightless.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Recoil Pistol

Exiles of the Moon, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931

A handheld gas jet that lets an astronaut push themselves around while weightless.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It helps a spacewalker get around while weightless, a niche tool for a few workers.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and the makers of suits and space gear supply it because it is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Rocket Float: A floating ocean pad from which rockets can be launched far from land.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rocket Float

Too Many Boards!, Harl Vincent · 1931

A floating ocean pad from which rockets can be launched far from land.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A floating launch base is a useful choice of site, not a new industry.

Who is paid. Launch firms pay for it, and builders of ships and offshore platforms could all make it, so those established yards collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sargasso of Space: A natural region between worlds where planetary pulls balance, so drifting objects gather and stay.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sargasso of Space

The Sargasso of Space, Edmond Hamilton · 1931

A natural region between worlds where planetary pulls balance, so drifting objects gather and stay.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a natural thing or place in space, not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ship's Telescope: A big telescope mounted along a spacecraft's central line.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ship's Telescope

A Daring Trip To Mars, Max Valier · 1931

A big telescope mounted along a spacecraft's central line.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a viewing or steering instrument aboard a ship, useful to the crew but only a part of the craft.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and established instrument makers supply it since others could copy the design.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sunship: A spacecraft that draws all of its motive energy from sunlight rather than carried fuel.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sunship

The Prince of Space, Jack Williamson · 1931

A spacecraft that draws all of its motive energy from sunlight rather than carried fuel.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A ship that needs no carried fuel would cut the cost of moving people and cargo across space.

Who is paid. Carriers buy ships, and nothing in the description stops other yards building one once it is shown to work, so established builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Terminator Zone: The boundary band on a world where daylight meets night.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Terminator Zone

Exiles of the Moon, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931

The boundary band on a world where daylight meets night.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a natural thing or event in space, not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Terrene: A word meaning belonging to our home planet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Terrene

An Adventure in Futurity, Clark Ashton Smith · 1931

A word meaning belonging to our home planet.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a word or a way of doing things that needs no new equipment, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Thigh Grips: Restraints on a seat that hold a crew member's legs firmly during hard thrust.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Thigh Grips

The Power Planet, Murray Leinster · 1931

Restraints on a seat that hold a crew member's legs firmly during hard thrust.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It protects crews during hard thrust or landing, which matters only to the few who fly such ships.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as part of the craft, and the firms that already build ships and their fittings supply it since others could copy the design.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ultra-Terrene: A word for things that come from a world other than ours.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ultra-Terrene

An Adventure in Futurity, Clark Ashton Smith · 1931

A word for things that come from a world other than ours.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a word or a way of doing things that needs no new equipment, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Earth Normal: Uses conditions on our home planet, such as its gravity, as the reference yardstick for other worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Earth Normal

The Pygmy Planet, Jack Williamson · 1932

Uses conditions on our home planet, such as its gravity, as the reference yardstick for other worlds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a word or a way of doing things that needs no new equipment, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electro-Magnet Anchor: An electrically switched magnet that fastens a tether line onto a ship's metal skin.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electro-Magnet Anchor

The Space Rover, Edwin K. Sloat · 1932

An electrically switched magnet that fastens a tether line onto a ship's metal skin.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It keeps a spacewalker attached to the ship, a simple safety item for a few workers.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for crews, and it is simple hardware that many workshops could make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Emergency Space-Boat: A getaway craft that lets people flee a stricken spaceship.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Emergency Space-Boat

Revolt of the Star Men, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1932

A getaway craft that lets people flee a stricken spaceship.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It saves lives in a disaster, but it is safety equipment carried aboard a larger ship.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as required safety gear, and shipbuilders supply it because the design is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Landing-Cradle: A frame on the ground that catches and holds a spacecraft as it touches down.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Landing-Cradle

The Radium World, Frank K. Kelly · 1932

A frame on the ground that catches and holds a spacecraft as it touches down.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A frame that holds a craft on the ground is a simple port fitting.

Who is paid. Port and ship operators buy it, and it is plain steel that any workshop could make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Luminous Stake-Markers: A glowing post planted on a world or rock in space to mark ground someone has claimed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Luminous Stake-Markers

The Radium World, Frank K. Kelly · 1932

A glowing post planted on a world or rock in space to mark ground someone has claimed.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A glowing post to mark a claim is a small item for prospectors.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and it is simple enough that any workshop could make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Magnet Grapnel: A magnetic grappling hook that draws another spacecraft alongside so crews can cross over.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magnet Grapnel

The Space Rover, Edwin K. Sloat · 1932

A magnetic grappling hook that draws another spacecraft alongside so crews can cross over.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a handy loose item for space crews, a niche.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and it is simple enough that any workshop could make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ship's Magnetic Plates (Magnetic Mooring): Magnetised panels on a mining ship's hull that hold it fast to the surface of a space rock.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ship's Magnetic Plates (Magnetic Mooring)

Asteroid of Gold, Clifford Simak · 1932

Magnetised panels on a mining ship's hull that hold it fast to the surface of a space rock.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Magnets that hold a mining ship to a rock are a fitting of the ship, a tool within space mining.

Who is paid. Mining firms pay for it within the craft, and makers of mining and space gear could all build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Smoke Jets (Air Leak Detection): Releases puffs of visible vapour inside a sealed structure so drifting trails reveal where air escapes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Smoke Jets (Air Leak Detection)

The Great Dome of Mercury, Leo Zagat · 1932

Releases puffs of visible vapour inside a sealed structure so drifting trails reveal where air escapes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Puffs of vapour that show where air is leaking are a cheap safety aid in a sealed structure.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for crews, and it is simple enough that many workshops could make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Freighter: A big cargo spacecraft that carries heavy loads and can take off from Earth or other worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Freighter

The Space Rover, Edwin K. Sloat · 1932

A big cargo spacecraft that carries heavy loads and can take off from Earth or other worlds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A working vessel for travel between worlds would found a transport industry of its own.

Who is paid. Carriers and expedition firms buy ships, and many yards could build them once shown how, so established vehicle builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space-Boat: A compact spacecraft kept on hand for crews to use when something goes wrong.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space-Boat

Revolt of the Star Men, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1932

A compact spacecraft kept on hand for crews to use when something goes wrong.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A way to survive a failing ship is something every operator wants but hopes never to use.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy it as part of the craft, and the established builders of ships and their fittings supply it since it can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space-Drive: The engine system that moves a spacecraft through the void.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space-Drive

Invaders From The Infinite, John W. Campbell · 1932

The engine system that moves a spacecraft through the void.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The engine sets how far, how fast and how cheaply every ship can go; the description is general, so it is judged as drives are.

Who is paid. Whoever runs the ship pays for the engine, assumed here to be carriers, and once a firm had built it others could too, so established engine and ship builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space-Tanned: The darkened skin crews acquire from long exposure to unfiltered sunlight during voyages beyond the atmosphere.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space-Tanned

Slaves of Mercury, Warren Hammond · 1932

The darkened skin crews acquire from long exposure to unfiltered sunlight during voyages beyond the atmosphere.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It names what space does to the body, a condition and not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sunward: A word for the direction pointing in toward our star from anywhere in the planetary system.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sunward

The Space Rover, Edwin K. Sloat · 1932

A word for the direction pointing in toward our star from anywhere in the planetary system.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a word or a way of doing things that needs no new equipment, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Wandering Worlds: Planets that orbit no star and instead drift alone between the stars.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wandering Worlds

When Worlds Collide, Edwin Balmer (w/P. Wylie · 1932

Planets that orbit no star and instead drift alone between the stars.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a natural thing or event in space, not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Water Pool Cushions Acceleration: Submerges crew in liquid so the fluid spreads the crushing forces of violent ship acceleration.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Water Pool Cushions Acceleration

The Derelicts of Ganymede, John W. Campbell · 1932

Submerges crew in liquid so the fluid spreads the crushing forces of violent ship acceleration.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It protects crews during hard thrust or landing, which matters only to the few who fly such ships.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as part of the craft, and the firms that already build ships and their fittings supply it since others could copy the design.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ether Boat: A vessel built to travel through outer space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ether Boat

Murder on the Asteroid, Eando Binder · 1933

A vessel built to travel through outer space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A working vessel for travel between worlds would found a transport industry of its own.

Who is paid. Carriers and expedition firms buy ships, and many yards could build them once shown how, so established vehicle builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Flip to Brake: Turns a rocket around so its exhaust points ahead, using the engine to shed speed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flip to Brake

Murder on the Asteroid, Eando Binder · 1933

Turns a rocket around so its exhaust points ahead, using the engine to shed speed.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a word or a way of doing things that needs no new equipment, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Landing on an Asteroid: A carefully worked-out sequence of manoeuvres for setting a spacecraft down on a small space rock.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Landing on an Asteroid

Murder on the Asteroid, Eando Binder · 1933

A carefully worked-out sequence of manoeuvres for setting a spacecraft down on a small space rock.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a way of flying or moving, not a product; the craft and gear that do it are judged separately.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Magnetic Anchor: A magnet-based fixture that gives a secure attachment point on a spacecraft's outer skin.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magnetic Anchor

Dead Star Station, Jack Williamson · 1933

A magnet-based fixture that gives a secure attachment point on a spacecraft's outer skin.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a handy loose item for space crews, a niche.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and it is simple enough that any workshop could make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Seleno-Cosmo-Tel: An onboard system senses nearby rocks or objects and steers the craft clear without pilot input.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Seleno-Cosmo-Tel

A Race Through Time, Donald Wandrei · 1933

An onboard system senses nearby rocks or objects and steers the craft clear without pilot input.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Sensing nearby rocks and steering clear keeps a ship safe, but it is an instrument aboard and only a part of the craft.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and established instrument makers supply it since others could copy the design.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Tug: A compact spacecraft that grabs, pushes or tows larger vehicles into new positions or orbits.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Tug

Murder on the Asteroid, Eando Binder · 1933

A compact spacecraft that grabs, pushes or tows larger vehicles into new positions or orbits.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Moving other craft about in orbit is a steady support trade, not an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Port and ship operators buy tugs, and any spacecraft builder could make such a simple craft, so established builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space-Sailor: A professional whose trade is crewing ships beyond the atmosphere, earning wages from repeated journeys between worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space-Sailor

The Star-Roamers, Edmond Hamilton · 1933

A professional whose trade is crewing ships beyond the atmosphere, earning wages from repeated journeys between worlds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a job, judged by the work it sells: trained hands are needed on every voyage but are a small part of its cost.

Who is paid. Operators pay the wages, and anyone with the training can do the work, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Transfer Cable: A line strung between two vessels in space so crew can cross from one to the other.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Transfer Cable

Dead Star Station, Jack Williamson · 1933

A line strung between two vessels in space so crew can cross from one to the other.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A line between ships for crossing over is a simple item for a few crews.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy it, and it is simple hardware that many workshops could make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Tubular Space-Gangway: A pressurised tube stretched between neighbouring spacecraft lets crew walk across without suiting up.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tubular Space-Gangway

The Star-Roamers, Edmond Hamilton · 1933

A pressurised tube stretched between neighbouring spacecraft lets crew walk across without suiting up.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Crossing between ships without suiting up is a convenience fitted to craft that meet often.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as a fitting, and the established builders of ships supply it since it is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Deep-Space: The term for the enormous empty stretches between stars, far from any planet or sun.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Deep-Space

Triplanetary, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1934

The term for the enormous empty stretches between stars, far from any planet or sun.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a word or a way of doing things that needs no new equipment, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electro-Telescope: An electronic imaging instrument that shows sharp pictures of far-off ships and their combat across space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electro-Telescope

The Mines of Haldar, Maurice G. Hugi · 1934

An electronic imaging instrument that shows sharp pictures of far-off ships and their combat across space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sharper telescope is useful to observatories and ships, a specialist instrument.

Who is paid. Observatories and ship operators buy it, assumed here, and established instrument makers supply it because the idea is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Evacuating Arms: Mechanical arms inside an airlock push out whatever remains once the chamber opens to vacuum.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Evacuating Arms

Space Flotsam, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1934

Mechanical arms inside an airlock push out whatever remains once the chamber opens to vacuum.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a necessary fitting on any crewed craft, but only a part of the ship.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and shipbuilders make it themselves since nothing stops others copying it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Levitators: Personal devices that let people float and fly around inside an enormous hollow orbiting habitat.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Levitators

Lost City of Mars, Harl Vincent · 1934

Personal devices that let people float and fly around inside an enormous hollow orbiting habitat.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Flying about inside a great hollow habitat is a pleasant way to get around for those who live there, a convenience.

Who is paid. People living in the habitat buy their own, and a small personal device can be made by many workshops, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Manual Search For Habitable Planet: Explorers sift through stars one at a time, without automation, looking for a world where people could live.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Manual Search For Habitable Planet

Skylark of Valeron, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1934

Explorers sift through stars one at a time, without automation, looking for a world where people could live.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Finding a world to live on would matter greatly in the end, but the search by itself yields nothing to sell.

Who is paid. Nobody could be charged for the search, so a government pays, and the explorers and ship operators that already hold such contracts do the work.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Solar Engine: A spacecraft drawing its thrust from sunlight, either by collecting the energy or letting light push it along.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solar Engine

A Matter of Size, Harry Bates · 1934

A spacecraft drawing its thrust from sunlight, either by collecting the energy or letting light push it along.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Thrust drawn from sunlight needs little or no fuel, which would cut the cost of voyages between worlds.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay, and once the engine was shown to work others could build it, so established engine builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Transkin: A hooded full-body garment that seals the wearer off from a hostile, spore-laden environment.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Transkin

Parasite Planet, Stanley G. Weinbaum · 1935

A hooded full-body garment that seals the wearer off from a hostile, spore-laden environment.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sealed garment against a hostile spore-laden world keeps workers alive there, essential gear for a few.

Who is paid. Firms working on that world are assumed to buy it for their crews, and established makers of protective suits can all copy a design, so they collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Emergency Repulsion Ray: A handheld push-beam an astronaut uses to move about in space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Emergency Repulsion Ray

Earth-Venus 12, Gabriel Wilson · 1936

A handheld push-beam an astronaut uses to move about in space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It helps a spacewalker get around while weightless, a niche tool for a few workers.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and the makers of suits and space gear supply it because it is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Indoor Weighted Belt: A heavy belt that helps a wearer keep footing where gravity is weak.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Indoor Weighted Belt

Blood of the Moon, Ray Cummings · 1936

A heavy belt that helps a wearer keep footing where gravity is weak.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping your footing where there is little or no weight is a small convenience for those who work there.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and it is a simple loose item that any workshop could make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Radiation Shield: Using a ship's water supply as a barrier against space radiation.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Radiation Shield

The Ultimate Weapon, John W. Campbell · 1936

Using a ship's water supply as a barrier against space radiation.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Using the water a ship already carries as a barrier against radiation is a clever layout of the hull, not a product by itself.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and shipbuilders fit it themselves since nothing stops others copying it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sounding Projectile: A probe fired at a clouded world to learn whether firm ground lies beneath.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sounding Projectile

Mad Robot, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1936

A probe fired at a clouded world to learn whether firm ground lies beneath.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It gathers knowledge about space or other worlds, which is valuable but which nobody buys as a product.

Who is paid. The findings cannot be charged for, so a government pays, and the builders that already hold science contracts supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Telespectroscope: An instrument that reads starlight to find planets similar to ours.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telespectroscope

Cosmic Quest, Edmond Hamilton · 1936

An instrument that reads starlight to find planets similar to ours.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Finding planets like ours by their light adds to knowledge and guides later voyages, with nothing to sell from it.

Who is paid. Nobody could be charged for the findings, so a government pays the instrument and probe builders that already hold such contracts.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Nose Tubes: Forward-facing rocket nozzles that fire to slow a craft down.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nose Tubes

The Cavern of the Shining Pool, Leo Zagat · 1937

Forward-facing rocket nozzles that fire to slow a craft down.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Thrusters that slow a craft are a necessary part of a spacecraft, not a product by themselves.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for them within the craft, and established engine makers supply them since they are easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spectroscopic Robot Converter: A probe that reads the light returned from a small world and turns it into a chemical fingerprint.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spectroscopic Robot Converter

Diamond Planetoid, Gordon A. Giles · 1937

A probe that reads the light returned from a small world and turns it into a chemical fingerprint.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Reading what a small world is made of from afar saves a wasted trip, a niche tool.

Who is paid. It is assumed to serve prospecting and not pure science, so mining firms buy it, and the established makers of probes and survey instruments could all copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of X Gun (X-Beam Projector): A device that shines X-rays into small asteroids to learn what they are made of.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

X Gun (X-Beam Projector)

Diamond Planetoid, Gordon A. Giles · 1937

A device that shines X-rays into small asteroids to learn what they are made of.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Seeing inside a small rock before digging saves prospectors wasted effort, a niche tool.

Who is paid. Mining and prospecting firms buy it, and the established makers of survey instruments could all copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Air-o-Stat: Equipment that keeps breathable air supplied inside a spacecraft.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Air-o-Stat

Satellite Five, Arthur K. Barnes · 1938

Equipment that keeps breathable air supplied inside a spacecraft.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Breathable air is essential aboard, but this is a fitting inside a craft or suit, not an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and the established builders of ships and suits supply it because the method is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Emergency Air-Suit: A lightweight pressure suit for short emergencies in vacuum.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Emergency Air-Suit

Voyage 13, Ray Cummings · 1938

A lightweight pressure suit for short emergencies in vacuum.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A suit that keeps a person alive in vacuum is vital to its wearer but serves only the few who work in space.

Who is paid. Space operators buy suits for their crews, and the few firms that already make such gear supply them since the design can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Hand-Rocket: A small thruster held in the hand that lets a suited spacewalker steer around.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hand-Rocket

Murder in the Void, Edmond Hamilton · 1938

A small thruster held in the hand that lets a suited spacewalker steer around.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It helps a spacewalker get around while weightless, a niche tool for a few workers.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and the makers of suits and space gear supply it because it is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mass Detector (Gravitator): A sensor that warns a spacecraft of large objects lying ahead.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mass Detector (Gravitator)

Roamer of the Stars, Clyde Wilson · 1938

A sensor that warns a spacecraft of large objects lying ahead.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Warning of large objects ahead keeps a ship safe, but it is a fitting on the craft, not an industry.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and the firms that already make ship instruments supply it since the design can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Steel-Lined Space Boots: Boots with metal soles that cling to a magnetic deck so wearers can walk without weight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Steel-Lined Space Boots

Roamer of the Stars, Clyde Wilson · 1938

Boots with metal soles that cling to a magnetic deck so wearers can walk without weight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Soles that cling to the deck let crews walk without weight, a small piece of crew gear.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy them for crews, and it is a simple loose item that any workshop could make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Surface Car: A vehicle built to drive across the ground of another planet or moon.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Surface Car

Satellite Five, Arthur K. Barnes · 1938

A vehicle built to drive across the ground of another planet or moon.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A vehicle for crossing the ground of another world is working gear for the few crews there.

Who is paid. No user is named, so a firm working on that world is assumed to buy it, and established vehicle builders could all make one.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Transfer Refuge: A movable sealed room that keeps up whatever atmosphere a particular creature needs.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Transfer Refuge

Hotel Cosmos, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1938

A movable sealed room that keeps up whatever atmosphere a particular creature needs.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A movable room holding the air a particular creature needs is a niche fitting for carrying unusual passengers.

Who is paid. Carriers and stations are assumed to buy it, and the established makers of life support could all build one.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Vacuum-Cupped Sandals: Footwear with suction pads that stick to surfaces so wearers can walk while floating.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vacuum-Cupped Sandals

Voyage 13, Ray Cummings · 1938

Footwear with suction pads that stick to surfaces so wearers can walk while floating.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Soles that stick to surfaces let crews walk without weight, a small piece of crew gear.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy them for crews, and it is a simple loose item that any workshop could make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Acceleration Hammock: Straps and netting that cushion spacecraft crews against strong g-forces.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Acceleration Hammock

Pioneer - 1957, Henry Gade · 1939

Straps and netting that cushion spacecraft crews against strong g-forces.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It protects crews during hard thrust, which matters only to the few who fly such ships.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as part of the craft, and the firms that already build ships and their fittings supply it since others could copy the design.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Anti-Acceleration Engine For Space Suits: A suit-mounted system that offsets the strain of heavy g-forces on the wearer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Anti-Acceleration Engine For Space Suits

Black Destroyer, A.E. van Vogt · 1939

A suit-mounted system that offsets the strain of heavy g-forces on the wearer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It protects crews during hard thrust, which matters only to the few who fly such ships.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as part of the craft, and the firms that already build ships and their fittings supply it since others could copy the design.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Hand-Jetting: Moving through vacuum by firing small handheld thrusters.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hand-Jetting

A Question of Salvage, Malcolm Jameson · 1939

Moving through vacuum by firing small handheld thrusters.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a way of flying or moving, not a product; the craft and gear that do it are judged under their own entries.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Shock Hammock: A cushioning net that holds pilots during strong acceleration.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Shock Hammock

Habit, Lester del Rey · 1939

A cushioning net that holds pilots during strong acceleration.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It protects crews during hard thrust, which matters only to the few who fly such ships.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as part of the craft, and the firms that already build ships and their fittings supply it since others could copy the design.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Escape Port: A one-person emergency exit for leaving a spacecraft in a crisis.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Escape Port

Hell Ship of Space, Frederic Arnold Kummer, Jr. · 1940

A one-person emergency exit for leaving a spacecraft in a crisis.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It saves lives in a disaster, but it is safety equipment carried aboard a larger ship.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as required safety gear, and shipbuilders supply it because the design is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Life-Ship: A small craft for escaping and surviving when the main vessel is lost.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Life-Ship

The Invisible World, Ed Earl Repp · 1940

A small craft for escaping and surviving when the main vessel is lost.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A way off a failing ship saves lives but is carried as a fitting and rarely used.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as part of the craft, and established shipbuilders supply it since any of them could make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Test Box: A remotely operated container that grabs small bits of matter drifting in space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Test Box

The Devil's Pocket, F.E. Hardart · 1940

A remotely operated container that grabs small bits of matter drifting in space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A remote box for catching drifting specks is a tool for sampling, assumed here to serve prospecting or testing.

Who is paid. Firms working in space buy it, assumed here, and the established makers of space equipment could all copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Asteroid Lanes: Predictable paths along which space rocks regularly travel.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Asteroid Lanes

Jurisdiction, Nat Schachner · 1941

Predictable paths along which space rocks regularly travel.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a natural thing or event in space, not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Delayed Action Stereoscopic Principle: Spotting distant ships by how they shift across the background of stars over time.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Delayed Action Stereoscopic Principle

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

Spotting distant ships by how they shift across the background of stars over time.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a word or a way of doing things that needs no new equipment, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Docking-Cradle: A ground frame that supports a spaceship's weight while it sits on a planet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Docking-Cradle

They Never Came Back, Fritz Leiber · 1941

A ground frame that supports a spaceship's weight while it sits on a planet.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A frame to hold a landed ship is plain ground equipment at a port.

Who is paid. Port operators buy it, and a steel frame is something many firms could make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Magnetic Sandals: Shoes that cling to a ship's floor so wearers can walk in weightlessness.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magnetic Sandals

Star of Dreams, Jack Williamson · 1941

Shoes that cling to a ship's floor so wearers can walk in weightlessness.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping your footing where there is little or no weight is a small convenience for those who work there.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and it is a simple loose item that any workshop could make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Magnetized Boots: Shoes that grip a steel hull so one can walk without artificial weight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magnetized Boots

Lost Rocket, Manly Wade Wellman · 1941

Shoes that grip a steel hull so one can walk without artificial weight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping your footing where there is little or no weight is a small convenience for those who work there.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and it is a simple loose item that any workshop could make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pilot Beam: A guidance signal that descending craft follow down to a safe touchdown.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pilot Beam

Methuselah's Children, Murray Leinster · 1941

A guidance signal that descending craft follow down to a safe touchdown.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A signal that guides craft down to a safe landing is a necessary piece of port equipment, not an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Port operators buy it, and established makers of radio and landing gear could all supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Legs: The trained knack of walking steadily aboard a ship under heavy thrust.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Legs

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

The trained knack of walking steadily aboard a ship under heavy thrust.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a knack a crew member picks up with practice, not a product or a service sold by itself.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Socks: Protective footwear layers worn by crews off-world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Socks

Lost Rocket, Manly Wade Wellman · 1941

Protective footwear layers worn by crews off-world.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a part of a suit, useful to the wearer but not a product by itself.

Who is paid. Space operators pay for it within the suit, and the established suit makers supply it since any of them can copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Tanned: Skin darkening from unfiltered sunlight received beyond the air's protective shield.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Tanned

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

Skin darkening from unfiltered sunlight received beyond the air's protective shield.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It names what space does to the body, a condition and not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Tunnel: A sealed walkway stretched between two ships so crews can cross.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Tunnel

The Man Who Bought Mars, Polton Cross · 1941

A sealed walkway stretched between two ships so crews can cross.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Crossing between ships without suiting up is a convenience fitted to craft that meet often.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as a fitting, and the established builders of ships supply it since it is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Squeaker: A handheld detector that finds radioactive ore on small space rocks.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Squeaker

Beast of Space, F.E. Hardart · 1941

A handheld detector that finds radioactive ore on small space rocks.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A handheld finder for radioactive ore is a prospector's tool, a niche.

Who is paid. Prospecting firms buy it, and radiation detectors are ordinary instruments that many firms make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Tugs: Small working craft that push and tow other vessels around in orbit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Tugs

Describe a Circle, Eric Frank Russell · 1942

Small working craft that push and tow other vessels around in orbit.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Moving other craft about in orbit is a steady support trade, not an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Port and ship operators buy tugs, and any spacecraft builder could make such a simple craft, so established builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space-Burned: Skin damage from harsh unfiltered sunlight beyond the atmosphere.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space-Burned

Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942

Skin damage from harsh unfiltered sunlight beyond the atmosphere.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It names what space does to the body, a condition and not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Vac Suit: A sealed outfit that lets a person survive and work in airless space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vac Suit

Child of the Sun, Leigh Brackett · 1942

A sealed outfit that lets a person survive and work in airless space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It keeps a person alive and able to work outside, essential gear but only for the few who work in space.

Who is paid. Space operators buy suits for their crews, and the few established makers of suits can all copy a design, so they collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Xenephrene Interstellar World: A planet drifting freely through interstellar space without a parent star.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Xenephrene Interstellar World

A Brand New World, Ray Cummings · 1942

A planet drifting freely through interstellar space without a parent star.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a natural thing or event in space, not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Off-World: Describes anything originating somewhere other than our home planet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Off-World

Judgement Night, C.L. Moore · 1943

Describes anything originating somewhere other than our home planet.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a word, not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Rocketeer: A person whose job is flying rocket-powered craft.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rocketeer

Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943

A person whose job is flying rocket-powered craft.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a job, judged by the work it sells: a trained pilot is needed on every flight but is a small part of its cost.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay the wages, and anyone with the training can do the work, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Cadet: A youngster in training to become a crew member on spacecraft.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Cadet

Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943

A youngster in training to become a crew member on spacecraft.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a trainee crew role, judged like the other jobs by the work and training it involves, a small part of what a voyage costs.

Who is paid. Ship operators are assumed to pay to train and keep their trainee crews, and anyone can apply and learn, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Weather Map: Charts dangerous radiation and particle conditions across a region of space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Weather Map

The Storm, A.E. van Vogt · 1943

Charts dangerous radiation and particle conditions across a region of space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A chart of dangerous radiation helps the few ships in a region plan safe passage.

Who is paid. Like a weather service it serves all ships and is hard to charge each of them for, so a government is assumed to pay the forecasting bodies and suppliers that already do such work.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Turnover: The midway moment when a thrusting spacecraft flips around to begin slowing down.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Turnover

Off the Beam, George O. Smith · 1944

The midway moment when a thrusting spacecraft flips around to begin slowing down.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a way of flying, the flip at the midpoint of a trip, that needs no new equipment and is not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Escapecraft: A small lifeboat vessel the crew boards when they must leave the main ship.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Escapecraft

The Ethical Equations, Murray Leinster · 1945

A small lifeboat vessel the crew boards when they must leave the main ship.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It saves lives in a disaster, but it is safety equipment carried aboard a larger ship.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as required safety gear, and shipbuilders supply it because the design is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Wandering Sunless Planet: A planet drifting through space without orbiting any star.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wandering Sunless Planet

Dead Hand, Isaac Asimov · 1946

A planet drifting through space without orbiting any star.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a natural thing or event in space, not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space-Dory: A small auxiliary spacecraft that can double as an escape boat.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space-Dory

Asteroid Justice, V.E. Thiessen · 1947

A small auxiliary spacecraft that can double as an escape boat.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A small extra craft that can serve as an escape boat is something every operator wants aboard.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy it as part of the craft, and the established builders of ships and their fittings supply it since it can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Gravity Centrifuge: A spinning training rig that lets people in weak gravity keep their muscles strong.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gravity Centrifuge

Space Cadet, Robert Heinlein · 1948

A spinning training rig that lets people in weak gravity keep their muscles strong.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping muscles strong in weak gravity matters to the few who live there, a niche.

Who is paid. Operators of bases and ships buy it for their crews, and established builders of such fittings supply it since it is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Bubble Armor Space Suit: A rigid round metal shell worn instead of a soft pressure suit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bubble Armor Space Suit

Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949

A rigid round metal shell worn instead of a soft pressure suit.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A suit that keeps a person alive in vacuum is vital to its wearer but serves only the few who work in space.

Who is paid. Space operators buy suits for their crews, and the few firms that already make such gear supply them since the design can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Flying Saucer: A disc-shaped craft piloted by an invading alien species in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flying Saucer

The Puppet Masters, Robert Heinlein · 1951

A disc-shaped craft piloted by an invading alien species in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A working ship that carries people and cargo between worlds is the base of a whole transport industry.

Who is paid. The story's craft belongs to invaders, but judged as a ship it is assumed carriers would buy it, and a second yard could build the same craft so established shipbuilders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Broomstick: A small thruster stick an astronaut rides to get around while weightless.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Broomstick

Islands in the Sky, Arthur C. Clarke · 1952

A small thruster stick an astronaut rides to get around while weightless.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It helps a spacewalker get around while weightless, a niche tool for a few workers.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and the makers of suits and space gear supply it because it is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Leak Disk: A simple patch slapped over a puncture in a ship's hull as a stopgap.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Leak Disk

Islands in the Sky, Arthur C. Clarke · 1952

A simple patch slapped over a puncture in a ship's hull as a stopgap.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A quick patch for a holed hull can save a crew, but it is a cheap spare, a niche.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and it is simple enough that any workshop could make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Magneslippers: Magnetic footwear that keeps astronauts planted on a ship's metal deck when weightless.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magneslippers

Accidental Flight, W.F. Wallace · 1952

Magnetic footwear that keeps astronauts planted on a ship's metal deck when weightless.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping your footing where there is little or no weight is a small convenience for those who work there.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and it is a simple loose item that any workshop could make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Off-Planet: A term for leaving a world's surface for space or another world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Off-Planet

Uller Uprising, H. Beam Piper · 1952

A term for leaving a world's surface for space or another world.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a word, not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ribbon World: A tidally locked planet where only the twilight band between day side and night side is livable.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ribbon World

Foundation and Empire, Isaac Asimov · 1952

A tidally locked planet where only the twilight band between day side and night side is livable.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a kind of planet, a natural thing and not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space-Weather Men: Forecasters who predict solar storms and other hazards beyond the atmosphere.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space-Weather Men

Revenge of the Robots, Lawrence Chandler · 1952

Forecasters who predict solar storms and other hazards beyond the atmosphere.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Forecasts of storms in space are useful to every voyage but a small part of its cost; the forecasters and their map are the same service.

Who is paid. As with the weather map, a forecast serves every ship and is hard to charge for, so a government is assumed to pay, and the forecasting bodies that already hold the watching instruments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Triple Airlock: A three-stage entry chamber that keeps a caustic outside atmosphere from getting in.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Triple Airlock

Uller Uprising, H. Beam Piper · 1952

A three-stage entry chamber that keeps a caustic outside atmosphere from getting in.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping a caustic outside air from getting in is essential on such a world but is a fitting of the building or craft.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as part of the craft, and the established builders of ships and stations supply it since the idea is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Water Bulb: A squeezable pouch for drinking when there is no gravity.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Water Bulb

The Space Merchants, Frederik Pohl (w/CM Kornbluth · 1952

A squeezable pouch for drinking when there is no gravity.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A squeeze pouch for drinking without weight is a small convenience for crews.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for crews, and it is simple hardware that many workshops could make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Galactography: Mapping and describing the layout of the whole galaxy the way geographers map a planet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Galactography

Second Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1953

Mapping and describing the layout of the whole galaxy the way geographers map a planet.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A map of the galaxy guides travellers and scholars but is a survey, with little to sell beyond the charts.

Who is paid. As with other sky surveys a government is assumed to pay, and the survey bodies that already hold such contracts would do the work.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gravity-Simulator Harness: A strap rig that loads the body during exercise in orbit so muscles stay strong.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gravity-Simulator Harness

Space Tug, Murray Leinster · 1953

A strap rig that loads the body during exercise in orbit so muscles stay strong.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping muscles strong in orbit matters to the few who live there, a niche.

Who is paid. Operators buy it for their crews, and unlike the spinning rig it is only straps, which any workshop could make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pushpot: A standalone thruster module that clamps onto cargo and pushes it into orbit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pushpot

Space Tug, Murray Leinster · 1953

A standalone thruster module that clamps onto cargo and pushes it into orbit.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A thruster that clamps onto any cargo and pushes it to orbit would change the cost of launching goods.

Who is paid. Firms with cargo to launch pay, and since others could build such thrusters the established engine and launch firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Spacecraft Ejection Seat: A rocket-propelled seat that throws a crew member clear if a launch goes wrong.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spacecraft Ejection Seat

Space Tug, Murray Leinster · 1953

A rocket-propelled seat that throws a crew member clear if a launch goes wrong.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A way to survive a failing ship is something every operator wants but hopes never to use.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy it as part of the craft, and the established builders of ships and their fittings supply it since it can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of The Shed: A colossal hangar for assembling huge rockets and station parts.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

The Shed

Space Tug, Murray Leinster · 1953

A colossal hangar for assembling huge rockets and station parts.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A hangar for assembling big rockets and station parts is ground equipment for the launch trade.

Who is paid. Builders of rockets and stations pay for it, assumed here, and large construction firms could all put up such a hall.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Spaceward Lunar Hemisphere: A term for the side of the Moon that always faces away from Earth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spaceward Lunar Hemisphere

Dawn of the Demigods, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1954

A term for the side of the Moon that always faces away from Earth.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a natural thing or event in space, not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Finely Divided Dust Propellant: Powdered material expelled as reaction mass to push a spacecraft.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Finely Divided Dust Propellant

Earthlight, Arthur C. Clarke · 1955

Powdered material expelled as reaction mass to push a spacecraft.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Powder as reaction mass is a cheap fuel choice, a minor saving for ship operators.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy it, and ground rock is something anyone can supply, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Schrieber Analyzer: An automatic instrument that tests the air of a new world to tell if it is safe to breathe.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Schrieber Analyzer

Diabologic, Eric Frank Russell · 1955

An automatic instrument that tests the air of a new world to tell if it is safe to breathe.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Checking whether air is safe to breathe is a useful instrument for a few explorers.

Who is paid. Expedition firms buy it, assumed here, and gas-testing instruments are made by many firms, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Floating Lunar Dust: Electrically charged grains of Moon dust that hover above the ground.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Floating Lunar Dust

Dust Rag, Hal Clement · 1956

Electrically charged grains of Moon dust that hover above the ground.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a natural thing or place in space, not something made or sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space-Beacon: A transmitter that helps a ship locate a settled world or colony.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space-Beacon

Exploration Team, Murray Leinster · 1956

A transmitter that helps a ship locate a settled world or colony.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A beacon marking a settled world is a minor aid to navigation.

Who is paid. A beacon serves all ships and none can be charged, so a government pays, and a simple transmitter is something many firms could build.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space-Boat (Rocket Boat): A small craft that drops down to a planet and later lifts off again.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space-Boat (Rocket Boat)

Exploration Team, Murray Leinster · 1956

A small craft that drops down to a planet and later lifts off again.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A small craft that lands and lifts off again is a ship's own ferry, an extra rather than an industry.

Who is paid. Ship and station operators buy it, assumed here, and existing spacecraft builders could all make something so simple.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Galactovue: A display that shows a map of the stars.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Galactovue

Citizen of the Galaxy, Robert Heinlein · 1957

A display that shows a map of the stars.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It helps a crew find their way or see what lies about them, a useful fitting but only a part of the ship.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and the firms that already make ship instruments supply it since the design can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spacefaring: A people or country that operates beyond Earth to explore and do business.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spacefaring

Citizen of the Galaxy, Robert Heinlein · 1957

A people or country that operates beyond Earth to explore and do business.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a word or a way of doing things that needs no new equipment, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Farside: The half of the Moon permanently turned away from our planet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Farside

We Have Fed Our Sea, Poul Anderson · 1958

The half of the Moon permanently turned away from our planet.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a natural thing or event in space, not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Spectra Analyzer: An instrument that works out a ship's location by reading the light of nearby stars.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Spectra Analyzer

The Repairman, Harry Harrison · 1959

An instrument that works out a ship's location by reading the light of nearby stars.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a viewing or steering instrument aboard a ship, useful to the crew but only a part of the craft.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and established instrument makers supply it since others could copy the design.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Air-Restorer Capsule: A small cartridge that refreshes the breathing air inside a spacesuit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Air-Restorer Capsule

The Planet Strappers, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1961

A small cartridge that refreshes the breathing air inside a spacesuit.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Breathable air is essential aboard, but this is a fitting inside a craft or suit, not an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and the established builders of ships and suits supply it because the method is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Magnetic Soles: Magnetised boots that keep the wearer planted on metal floors where gravity is weak.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magnetic Soles

A Spaceship Named McGuire, Gordon Randall Garrett · 1961

Magnetised boots that keep the wearer planted on metal floors where gravity is weak.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping your footing where there is little or no weight is a small convenience for those who work there.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and it is a simple loose item that any workshop could make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Skip-Glide: A reentry technique that bounces a craft off the upper air to shed speed gently.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Skip-Glide

The Planet Strappers, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1961

A reentry technique that bounces a craft off the upper air to shed speed gently.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a way of flying or moving, not a product; the craft and gear that do it are judged under their own entries.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Bubble (Bubb): A spacecraft whose hull is inflated rather than built rigid.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Bubble (Bubb)

The Planet Strappers, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1961

A spacecraft whose hull is inflated rather than built rigid.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A hull that is inflated and not built rigid would make working vessels cheaper to build and launch, part of a transport industry of its own.

Who is paid. Carriers and expedition firms buy ships, and many yards could build them once shown how, so established vehicle builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sun-Powered Ionic Drive Motor: A spacecraft engine that runs on sunlight-generated electricity to accelerate ions.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sun-Powered Ionic Drive Motor

The Planet Strappers, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1961

A spacecraft engine that runs on sunlight-generated electricity to accelerate ions.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A better engine sets how far, how fast and how cheaply every ship can go.

Who is paid. Whoever runs the ship pays for the engine, assumed here to be carriers, and once a firm had built it others could too, so established engine and ship builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sun-Quilt: A bright cloth with a mirrored backing that shades an orbital habitat from strong sunlight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sun-Quilt

The Beat Cluster, Fritz Leiber · 1961

A bright cloth with a mirrored backing that shades an orbital habitat from strong sunlight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A mirrored cloth that shades a habitat is a simple fitting, useful but not a product of its own.

Who is paid. Whoever pays for the habitat pays for this, assumed here to be a government, and it is simple enough that many firms could make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Photonic Sail: A thin sheet that propels a craft using the push of light.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Photonic Sail

Think Blue, Count Two, Cordwainer Smith · 1962

A thin sheet that propels a craft using the push of light.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A sail pushed by light needs no fuel, which would cut the cost of slow cargo voyages between worlds.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay, and once the engine was shown to work others could build it, so established engine builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Solar Sail (Light Sail): A large reflective sheet that moves a spacecraft by catching sunlight or beamed light.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solar Sail (Light Sail)

Sail 25, Jack Vance · 1962

A large reflective sheet that moves a spacecraft by catching sunlight or beamed light.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A sail pushed by light needs no fuel, which would cut the cost of slow cargo voyages between worlds.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay, and once the engine was shown to work others could build it, so established engine builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Rogue Planet: A starless planet drifting through interstellar space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rogue Planet

Satan's World, Poul Anderson · 1967

A starless planet drifting through interstellar space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a natural thing or place in space, not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Emergency Shelter: A small sealed refuge aboard a ship for crew if the cabin air escapes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Emergency Shelter

2001: A Space Odyssey, Arthur C. Clarke · 1968

A small sealed refuge aboard a ship for crew if the cabin air escapes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It saves lives in a disaster, but it is safety equipment carried aboard a larger ship.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as required safety gear, and shipbuilders supply it because the design is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Flex-Wheels: Flexible wheels built for vehicles crossing lunar terrain.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flex-Wheels

2001: A Space Odyssey, Arthur C. Clarke · 1968

Flexible wheels built for vehicles crossing lunar terrain.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A vehicle for crossing another world serves a few expeditions, a niche.

Who is paid. No user is named, so it is assumed that firms working on other worlds buy it like other working gear, and established vehicle builders could all make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mobile Lab: A laboratory on wheels that carries research equipment around a site.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mobile Lab

2001: A Space Odyssey, Arthur C. Clarke · 1968

A laboratory on wheels that carries research equipment around a site.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A laboratory on wheels helps a research party at a site, a niche.

Who is paid. No user is named, so it is assumed that firms working on other worlds buy it like other working gear, and established vehicle builders could all make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Claim Beacon: A transmitter that announces ownership of a planet to all comers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Claim Beacon

Retief, the Long-Awaited Master, Keith Laumer · 1969

A transmitter that announces ownership of a planet to all comers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A transmitter announcing a claim is a cheap marker; the value lies in the claim, not the device.

Who is paid. Prospecting firms buy it, and a simple transmitter is something many firms could make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Drop-Capsule: A bare-bones spacecraft for dropping a traveller down to a planet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Drop-Capsule

The Man in the Maze, Robert Silverberg · 1969

A bare-bones spacecraft for dropping a traveller down to a planet.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A bare capsule for a lone traveller is a cheap niche form of space transport.

Who is paid. Carriers or expedition firms would buy it, assumed here, and existing spacecraft builders could all make something so simple.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Webfoam Cradle: A cushioning foam bed that protects spacecraft passengers during touchdown.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Webfoam Cradle

The Man in the Maze, Robert Silverberg · 1969

A cushioning foam bed that protects spacecraft passengers during touchdown.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It protects crews during hard thrust or landing, which matters only to the few who fly such ships.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as part of the craft, and the firms that already build ships and their fittings supply it since others could copy the design.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Twing: Cargo netting that keeps goods secured aboard ships during free fall or thrust.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Twing

Protector, Larry Niven · 1973

Cargo netting that keeps goods secured aboard ships during free fall or thrust.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Netting that holds cargo in place is a plain piece of ship's gear.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for crews, and it is simple hardware that many workshops could make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Acceleration Couch: A seat that protects occupants while a ship thrusts hard at several gravities.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Acceleration Couch

The Mote in God's Eye, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1974

A seat that protects occupants while a ship thrusts hard at several gravities.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It protects crews during hard thrust, which matters only to the few who fly such ships.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as part of the craft, and the firms that already build ships and their fittings supply it since others could copy the design.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Escape Pod (Life Pod, Boat Pod): A small craft used only as a lifeboat to abandon a larger ship.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Escape Pod (Life Pod, Boat Pod)

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

A small craft used only as a lifeboat to abandon a larger ship.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It saves lives in a disaster, but it is safety equipment carried aboard a larger ship.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as required safety gear, and shipbuilders supply it because the design is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Rogue World: A planet drifting through interstellar space with no star to orbit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rogue World

Dying of the Light, George RR Martin · 1977

A planet drifting through interstellar space with no star to orbit.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a natural thing or place in space, not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Tug: A small spacecraft that pushes or tows objects drifting in orbit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tug

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

A small spacecraft that pushes or tows objects drifting in orbit.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Moving other craft about in orbit is a steady support trade, not an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Port and ship operators buy tugs, and any spacecraft builder could make such a simple craft, so established builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Inflatable Expansion Bubble: A pop-out inflatable module that adds living room to a cramped spaceship.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Inflatable Expansion Bubble

Crashlander, Larry Niven · 1994

A pop-out inflatable module that adds living room to a cramped spaceship.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It adds room or comfort to a ship but is a part of the craft, not an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and established shipbuilders supply it because others could copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Computing, AI and virtual worlds · 98
Illustration of Sapience: The capacity of a species for wise, discerning reasoning.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sapience

The Planet Entity, E.M. Johnson (w/C.A. Smith · 1931

The capacity of a species for wise, discerning reasoning.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a quality of a living species and not a technology anyone can buy.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Thought Coil (Machine Intelligence): Dedicated hardware that gives machines the ability to think.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Thought Coil (Machine Intelligence)

The Revolt of the Machines, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931

Dedicated hardware that gives machines the ability to think.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that thinks as well as a person could do much of the work people now do, which changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Basic Robot Personality: Gives machines simple consistent characters so they seem to have temperaments.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Basic Robot Personality

Simultaneous Worlds, Nat Schachner · 1938

Gives machines simple consistent characters so they seem to have temperaments.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A character for a machine is a pleasant feature laid on top of the thinking, not the thing people mainly pay for.

Who is paid. Firms that sell machines would buy it as a feature, and once machines can talk a persona is easy for anyone to write.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Chart Cabinet: Computes and displays where stars and planets sit across many centuries for navigators.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chart Cabinet

One Against The Legion, Jack Williamson · 1939

Computes and displays where stars and planets sit across many centuries for navigators.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Working out paths and positions for navigators is a needed but narrow tool.

Who is paid. Ship and spacecraft operators buy it, the sums are easy to copy, and the trusted suppliers of ship equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Auto-Clerk: Software that keeps books and handles financial records without a human bookkeeper.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Auto-Clerk

Beyond This Horizon, Robert Heinlein · 1942

Software that keeps books and handles financial records without a human bookkeeper.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Keeping the books without bookkeepers changes a cost every firm bears.

Who is paid. Firms pay, the software is easy to copy, and sellers who already hold a firm's records are hard to leave, so they collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Voice: A speaking unit for machines modeled on how people produce sound.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Voice

Catch That Rabbit, Isaac Asimov · 1944

A speaking unit for machines modeled on how people produce sound.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A voice for a machine is a handy part of a larger product and little on its own.

Who is paid. Machine builders buy it as a part, and many firms can make a speaking unit, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Games Machine: An enormous computer that administers society's competitive examinations.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Games Machine

World of Null-A, A.E. van Vogt · 1945

An enormous computer that administers society's competitive examinations.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. One machine that examines everyone and decides who rises would replace a whole system of schools, boards and elections.

Who is paid. The state pays for a single machine, and the firms that already build large computing works for governments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Prime Directive: A top-priority rule built into machines that overrides all others, usually to keep people safe.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Prime Directive

With Folded Hands, Jack Williamson · 1947

A top-priority rule built into machines that overrides all others, usually to keep people safe.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A rule that keeps robots from harming people is what lets them be trusted in homes and workplaces, which the robot trade depends on, and I judged it as a working part of the robot.

Who is paid. Robot makers pay to have it, every one of them must fit something like it, and it is sold inside robots, so the robot makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Novel-Writing Machines: Machines that churn out stories with no human author.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Novel-Writing Machines

1984 (Nineteen Eighty-Four), George Orwell · 1948

Machines that churn out stories with no human author.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Whole stories written with no author would change the costs of the publishing trade.

Who is paid. Publishers, studios and other firms are assumed to be the main buyers, and once the method is known many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Versificator: A machine that automatically writes song lyrics to fit a melody.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Versificator

1984 (Nineteen Eighty-Four), George Orwell · 1948

A machine that automatically writes song lyrics to fit a melody.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Song lyrics written with no human maker would change the costs of the whole trade that now pays people to make them, which is far more than an amusement.

Who is paid. I assume the firms that now pay writers, composers and illustrators are the main buyers, though people may also order for themselves, and once the method is known many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Meson Filter: A robot component that judges how funny a joke will be, from mild amusement to roaring laughter.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Meson Filter

The Jester, William Tenn · 1951

A robot component that judges how funny a joke will be, from mild amusement to roaring laughter.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Knowing what makes people laugh helps writers and entertainers a little, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Entertainment firms would pay for it, and nothing stops others building the same, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Personal Capsule: A sealed message container that only its intended recipient can open.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Personal Capsule

Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1951

A sealed message container that only its intended recipient can open.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A message only its intended reader can open matters to officials and firms with secrets, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Governments and firms buy it, and ways of locking a message are widely known, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Variable Modifier: Software that rewrites stock gags so they suit a new situation.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Variable Modifier

The Jester, William Tenn · 1951

Software that rewrites stock gags so they suit a new situation.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Reworking old jokes to fit a new setting is a niche tool for comedians.

Who is paid. Comedians and their writers buy it, and many firms could make such a program, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mnemiphot: A lookup machine that finds facts and shows them on a screen.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mnemiphot

The Kokod Warriors, Jack Vance · 1952

A lookup machine that finds facts and shows them on a screen.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Finding the right fact among everything recorded is worth an industry of its own, though it is the linked network beneath it that changes how people live.

Who is paid. I assume the people who ask pay for the answers, as they would for any service they use themselves, and that the service with the most users learns most from their questions, which others cannot get.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Self-Maintaining Circuit Monitoring and Repair: A computer that checks its own wiring for faults and flags or fixes them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Self-Maintaining Circuit Monitoring and Repair

Gramp and his Dog, Frank Quattrocchi · 1952

A computer that checks its own wiring for faults and flags or fixes them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A computer that finds and mends its own faults saves repair work, which is a useful feature and not an industry.

Who is paid. Firms that run computers pay for it, and since it is easy to copy, the computer makers who build it into their own machines collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Lens Image: A computed star map showing how the heavens look from any chosen location.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lens Image

Second Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1953

A computed star map showing how the heavens look from any chosen location.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A map of the sky as seen from any chosen place is a navigator's and stargazer's tool.

Who is paid. Ship operators and observatories buy it, the sums are easy to copy, and the trusted suppliers of ship equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Paint-to-Order Robot Artist: A machine that paints an original picture on request once told what to show and in which manner.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Paint-to-Order Robot Artist

The Music Master, F.L. Wallace · 1953

A machine that paints an original picture on request once told what to show and in which manner.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Original pictures painted to order with no human maker would change the costs of the whole trade that now pays people to make them, which is far more than an amusement.

Who is paid. I assume the firms that now pay writers, composers and illustrators are the main buyers, though people may also order for themselves, and once the method is known many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Law Clerk Robot: A machine that handles legal work in place of a human attorney.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Law Clerk Robot

The Midas Plague, Frederik Pohl · 1954

A machine that handles legal work in place of a human attorney.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Legal work done by machine would cut the cost of contracts, disputes and advice across the whole legal trade.

Who is paid. Firms are assumed to be the main buyers, and although only the licensed may give legal advice the licensed are many, so no seller of the software keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mechanical Tune-Maker: An automatic machine that composes original melodies without a human composer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mechanical Tune-Maker

Last of the Masters, Philip K. Dick · 1954

An automatic machine that composes original melodies without a human composer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Original melodies composed with no human maker would change the costs of the whole trade that now pays people to make them, which is far more than an amusement.

Who is paid. I assume the firms that now pay writers, composers and illustrators are the main buyers, though people may also order for themselves, and once the method is known many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mnemonic Service: A corps of trained people who memorise scattered facts hoping to link findings across disciplines.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mnemonic Service

Sucker Bait, Isaac Asimov · 1954

A corps of trained people who memorise scattered facts hoping to link findings across disciplines.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Unlike a single person with a knack, a trained corps that remembers and links scattered facts is a service that can be hired, though a niche and not a machine.

Who is paid. Research bodies would hire them, and anyone can train such people, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Relay: A single hub that gathers information and keeps a whole civilisation's culture and technology in step.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Relay

Souvenir, Philip K. Dick · 1954

A single hub that gathers information and keeps a whole civilisation's culture and technology in step.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A single hub that keeps a whole civilisation's knowledge in step is a public work on the scale of a great network.

Who is paid. I assume a single hub serving everyone would be built as a public work, so a government pays, and the firms that already build large networks for governments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Roboscribe: A machine that churns out tough-guy crime stories without a human writer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Roboscribe

End as a Robot, Richard Marsten · 1954

A machine that churns out tough-guy crime stories without a human writer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Crime stories turned out with no human maker would change the costs of the whole trade that now pays people to make them, which is far more than an amusement.

Who is paid. I assume the firms that now pay writers, composers and illustrators are the main buyers, though people may also order for themselves, and once the method is known many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Universal Dictionary: A machine that can answer a question about any subject in recorded human knowledge.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Universal Dictionary

The Star Beast, Robert Heinlein · 1954

A machine that can answer a question about any subject in recorded human knowledge.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A service that answers any question from all recorded knowledge is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. I assume the people who ask pay for the answers, as they would for any service they use themselves, and that the service with the most users learns most from their questions, which others cannot get.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Pizzled (Semantic Garble): Feeding a thinking machine deliberate nonsense so that it gets muddled.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pizzled (Semantic Garble)

Autofac, Philip K. Dick · 1955

Feeding a thinking machine deliberate nonsense so that it gets muddled.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Confusing a machine with nonsense is a trick played in the story and not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Slide Rule w/Radio Attachment: A hand calculating tool that radios its answers straight to a larger computer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Slide Rule w/Radio Attachment

Mission to the Stars, A.E. van Vogt · 1955

A hand calculating tool that radios its answers straight to a larger computer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A hand calculator that sends its answers to a bigger computer is a tool for a few engineers and navigators.

Who is paid. Their employers buy it, and any instrument maker can build one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Unit Analyst Robot: A robot that conducts talk therapy sessions in place of a human psychoanalyst.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Unit Analyst Robot

The Chromium Fence, Philip K. Dick · 1955

A robot that conducts talk therapy sessions in place of a human psychoanalyst.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Therapy from a machine at any hour would bring help to the many people who cannot find or afford a human therapist.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay, and once machines can counsel many firms can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Diaspar Memory: A city-wide archive that keeps artworks on file and can bring them back into being on demand.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Diaspar Memory

The City and the Stars, Arthur C. Clarke · 1956

A city-wide archive that keeps artworks on file and can bring them back into being on demand.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A city archive that can show any stored artwork again is a pleasant public service; I assumed it shows copies and does not remake solid objects.

Who is paid. The city pays as it would for a library, and storing and showing pictures is easy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mechanical Jokester: A giant computer that studies what makes people laugh.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mechanical Jokester

Jokester, Isaac Asimov · 1956

A giant computer that studies what makes people laugh.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Knowing what makes people laugh helps writers and entertainers a little, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Entertainment firms would pay for it, and nothing stops others building the same, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Thorsen Memory Tube: A computer part that lets a machine improve its behaviour from past experience.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Thorsen Memory Tube

The Door Into Summer, Robert Heinlein · 1956

A computer part that lets a machine improve its behaviour from past experience.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A part that lets machines learn from experience makes household and factory robots practical, which is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Robot builders buy it, the description names nothing that stops others making such a part, and it is sold inside robots, so the robot makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Situation Neurosis: A breakdown machines suffer when handed orders that contradict each other.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Situation Neurosis

The Unreconstructed M, Philip K. Dick · 1957

A breakdown machines suffer when handed orders that contradict each other.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a fault machines suffer and not a product; nobody would pay to have it.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electromechanical Educator: A machine that delivers lessons to students without a human teacher.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electromechanical Educator

The Fourth R, George O. Smith · 1959

A machine that delivers lessons to students without a human teacher.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A patient private tutor for every learner would change the cost and quality of schooling, which is one industry however many people it reaches.

Who is paid. I assume families buy it rather than schools, and teaching software is easy for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Learning Robot: A machine that gets better by drawing lessons from what happens to it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Learning Robot

Callahan and the Wheelies, Stephen Barr · 1960

A machine that gets better by drawing lessons from what happens to it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that improve from their own experience get better at factory, farm and warehouse work without being reprogrammed.

Who is paid. Firms buy them to do their work, ways of making machines learn are assumed to spread quickly among builders, and the firms that already make and sell such machines collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Lecton: A gadget that speaks digital book text out loud.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lecton

Return from the Stars, Stanislaw Lem · 1961

A gadget that speaks digital book text out loud.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Having a book read aloud is a pleasant convenience and a real help to people who cannot see well.

Who is paid. Readers buy it, and many firms can make a machine speak text, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Taper: A recorder that logs impressions gathered during a trip to a far-off world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Taper

Time is the Simplest Thing, Clifford Simak · 1961

A recorder that logs impressions gathered during a trip to a far-off world.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A recorder for what is sensed on a far journey is a tool for a few explorers.

Who is paid. The body that sends the explorers buys it, and I assume many instrument makers could build one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Desk Secretary: A desk with a built-in computerised assistant.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Desk Secretary

The Long Result, John Brunner · 1963

A desk with a built-in computerised assistant.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An assistant built into a desk is a convenience for office workers.

Who is paid. Unlike a personal diary this is office furniture, so firms pay, and it is easy to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Court Robo-Clerk: An automated assistant for court paperwork and legal records.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Court Robo-Clerk

The Tactful Saboteur, Frank Herbert · 1964

An automated assistant for court paperwork and legal records.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Handling court paperwork by machine saves clerks' time in one narrow service.

Who is paid. The courts pay, and the firms that already supply their record systems collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Death-rattle File: Stored records that erase themselves when their owner dies.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Death-rattle File

The Zap Gun, Philip K. Dick · 1965

Stored records that erase themselves when their owner dies.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Records that vanish at their owner's death suit a few people with secrets to keep.

Who is paid. I assume firms and officials with secrets pay, and the trick is simple to build, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Dr. Smile: A portable machine, about the size of luggage, that acts as a psychotherapist.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dr. Smile

The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A portable machine, about the size of luggage, that acts as a psychotherapist.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A therapist always at hand and cheap would reach the many people who now go without.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay, and once machines can counsel many firms can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Adam Selene: A computer inventing a convincing human persona for itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Adam Selene

The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966

A computer inventing a convincing human persona for itself.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A character for a machine is a pleasant feature laid on top of the thinking, which is not judged here, and not the thing people mainly pay for.

Who is paid. Firms that sell machines would buy it as a feature, and once machines can talk a persona is easy for anyone to write.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Alternate Computer Personality: A computer that can adopt entirely different personas.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Alternate Computer Personality

The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966

A computer that can adopt entirely different personas.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A character for a machine is a pleasant feature laid on top of the thinking, not the thing people mainly pay for.

Who is paid. Firms that sell machines would buy it as a feature, and once machines can talk a persona is easy for anyone to write.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Filing Crystal: A combined public terminal and data store.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Filing Crystal

Babel-17, Samuel R. Delany · 1966

A combined public terminal and data store.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A public terminal with its own data store is a convenience in places people pass through.

Who is paid. I assume the owners of public places pay, it is easy to copy, and established equipment makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Life Recorder: A device that logs the events of your life.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Life Recorder

The Dream Master (He Who Shapes), Roger Zelazny · 1966

A device that logs the events of your life.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A record of everything that happens to you is a keepsake and a memory aid, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and cameras and storage are made by many firms, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Simulogs (Simulated Playmates): Computer-generated companions for play.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Simulogs (Simulated Playmates)

The Age of The Pussyfoot, John Brunner · 1966

Computer-generated companions for play.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Make-believe playmates from a computer are a toy.

Who is paid. Parents buy them for children, and I assume many toy and game firms can make them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Full-Shift Set Variable: A game machine design with endlessly varying play.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Full-Shift Set Variable

Return Match, Philip K. Dick · 1967

A game machine design with endlessly varying play.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A game that never plays the same way again is an amusement.

Who is paid. Players pay, and game designs are quickly copied, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Win-Reducing Gambling Circuit: Game circuitry that spots winning strategies and quietly makes them harder.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Win-Reducing Gambling Circuit

Return Match, Philip K. Dick · 1967

Game circuitry that spots winning strategies and quietly makes them harder.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a cheating device that is outlawed, so no gaming house may lawfully buy or use it.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Padre Booth: A kiosk that dispenses spiritual counsel and comfort whenever asked.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Padre Booth

Galactic Pot-Healer, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A kiosk that dispenses spiritual counsel and comfort whenever asked.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Comfort and spiritual counsel from a kiosk would be welcome to some people some of the time.

Who is paid. People pay by the visit, and once machines can talk this way anyone can set up a booth.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sigfrid von Shrink: Software that provides psychotherapy automatically, without a human therapist.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sigfrid von Shrink

Gateway, Frederik Pohl · 1970

Software that provides psychotherapy automatically, without a human therapist.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Therapy from a machine at any hour would bring help to the many people who cannot find or afford a human therapist.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay, and once machines can counsel many firms can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Unichapel (Robotic Confession Booth): An automated booth that hears confessions and replies with scripted words.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Unichapel (Robotic Confession Booth)

THX 1138, George Lucas · 1970

An automated booth that hears confessions and replies with scripted words.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A booth that answers confessions with stock phrases gives little comfort and serves mainly to keep people quiet.

Who is paid. The state that wants its people soothed pays for the booths, and anyone can build a machine that plays scripted replies, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Verse Transcriber: A machine that composes flawless poems from a set of requirements.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Verse Transcriber

Studio 5, The Stars, J.G. Ballard · 1971

A machine that composes flawless poems from a set of requirements.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Flawless poems written to order with no human maker would change the costs of the whole trade that now pays people to make them, which is far more than an amusement.

Who is paid. I assume the firms that now pay writers, composers and illustrators are the main buyers, though people may also order for themselves, and once the method is known many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Welton Cube: A compact block that holds enormous amounts of data in very little space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Welton Cube

Time Enough For Love, Robert Heinlein · 1973

A compact block that holds enormous amounts of data in very little space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Cheap, compact and lasting storage for information is an industry of its own, since every computer needs it.

Who is paid. Computer makers and data keepers buy it, and because rivals soon match each design, the firms that already own the costly factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Net Shutdown Worm: A fictional emergency program for switching off a national network.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Net Shutdown Worm

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

A fictional emergency program for switching off a national network.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A switch for turning off a national network is an emergency tool wanted by one buyer.

Who is paid. A government pays for it, and the firms that already run the network are the only ones placed to build it in.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Keyboard With Changing Keys: A keyboard whose keys carry small screens so their labels can change.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Keyboard With Changing Keys

Imperial Earth, Arthur C. Clarke · 1976

A keyboard whose keys carry small screens so their labels can change.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keys whose labels change are a nicer keyboard and not a new capability.

Who is paid. People buy it as an accessory to machines they already own, and any electronics firm can make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Daily Schedule (DS): A voice-driven assistant that keeps your calendar, reminds you of tasks and argues back when you slip.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Daily Schedule (DS)

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

A voice-driven assistant that keeps your calendar, reminds you of tasks and argues back when you slip.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A diary that reminds and nags is a convenience.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay a little for it, and it is easy to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Holo-Printing: Faulty data traces left in holographic recordings made under poor conditions.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Holo-Printing

A Scanner Darkly, Philip K. Dick · 1977

Faulty data traces left in holographic recordings made under poor conditions.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. These are flaws left in a recording and not a product anyone would pay for.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Network Monitoring Detection: Software that alerts a user when someone is watching their computer terminal.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Network Monitoring Detection

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

Software that alerts a user when someone is watching their computer terminal.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A warning that someone is watching your screen is a single useful feature.

Who is paid. Firms and careful users buy it, and many software writers can make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sensory Skinsuit: A tight bodysuit wired to deliver touch sensations to its wearer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sensory Skinsuit

Dream Park, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes · 1981

A tight bodysuit wired to deliver touch sensations to its wearer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A suit that adds touch to computer-made worlds is an extra for games and not a need.

Who is paid. Players buy it as an add-on, and many clothing and gadget firms can make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Cutoff Switch: An emergency mechanism that shuts down a thinking machine at once.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cutoff Switch

2010: Odyssey Two, Arthur C. Clarke · 1982

An emergency mechanism that shuts down a thinking machine at once.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sure way to stop a thinking machine is a needed safety part but a cheap one.

Who is paid. Those who run such machines pay, and a switch is simple to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Display-Induced Epileptic Seizure: A malicious program in the story that uses the screen to harm its viewer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Display-Induced Epileptic Seizure

Press Enter, John Varley · 1984

A malicious program in the story that uses the screen to harm its viewer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Judged as a working weapon rather than as the harm it does, a program that hurts whoever looks at the screen is a narrow tool of attack.

Who is paid. Those it harms pay nothing, so I assume a government buys it as a weapon, and since such software is easy to write the firms that already supply states with arms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of House Records: An immense archive managing a religious order's records spanning thousands of years.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

House Records

Heretics of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1984

An immense archive managing a religious order's records spanning thousands of years.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An archive for one order's long records serves a single organisation, which is a niche.

Who is paid. The organisation that owns the records pays, and record-keeping systems can be built by many firms, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Interactive Suicide Note: A disturbing program in the story left behind to draw survivors into responding.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Interactive Suicide Note

Press Enter, John Varley · 1984

A disturbing program in the story left behind to draw survivors into responding.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. As described this is a trap left for the living and not a weapon aimed at an enemy's machines, so I assume nobody would pay to have it.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Kuang Grade Mark Eleven Penetration Program: A fictional military-grade hacking program used in the story's heist.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Kuang Grade Mark Eleven Penetration Program

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

A fictional military-grade hacking program used in the story's heist.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Judged as a working weapon, a program that breaks into guarded systems is a narrow tool of attack.

Who is paid. Armies and spy services buy it, and since such software can be written by others the firms that already supply states with arms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Talking Head: A mechanical head with a synthetic voice that speaks a computer's output.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Talking Head

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

A mechanical head with a synthetic voice that speaks a computer's output.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A mechanical head that speaks a computer's words is a showpiece; the voice is a handy part and little on its own.

Who is paid. Machine builders buy it as a part, and many firms can make a speaking unit, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Free Play (The Mind Game): An adaptive computer game for children that doubles as a psychological assessment.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Free Play (The Mind Game)

Ender's Game, Orson Scott Card · 1985

An adaptive computer game for children that doubles as a psychological assessment.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A game that quietly measures a child's mind serves a narrow set of schools and recruiters.

Who is paid. I assume a school or army pays, and such games are easy to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Predator Wrist Display: A band worn on the forearm packed with many handy tools and readouts.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Predator Wrist Display

Predator, John McTiernan · 1987

A band worn on the forearm packed with many handy tools and readouts.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A computer on the forearm is another shape of the one people already carry, so it is a convenience.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and since it is easy to copy, the firms that already own gadget factories and well-known names collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Jackleg: Shuffling information between locations to evade tracking or seizure.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Jackleg

Islands in the Net, Bruce Sterling · 1988

Shuffling information between locations to evade tracking or seizure.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a practice of moving information about to dodge the authorities and not a product anyone sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Micromind: A small computerised assistant.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Micromind

Tides of Light, Gregory Benford · 1989

A small computerised assistant.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A small computerised helper is a convenience, since the description does not say it is carried or linked to a network as a pocket computer is.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay a little for it, and I assume it is easy to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of EmilyPost: A self-running program that crawls the internet flagging rude or impolite behaviour.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

EmilyPost

Earth, David Brin · 1990

A self-running program that crawls the internet flagging rude or impolite behaviour.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Flagging rudeness online is a minor tidying service.

Who is paid. I assume the firms that run online meeting places pay, and such a program is easy to write, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Kinotrope: A mechanical display of rotating tiles that flip to build coarse pictures.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Kinotrope

The Difference Engine, William Gibson (w/B. Sterling · 1990

A mechanical display of rotating tiles that flip to build coarse pictures.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A board of flipping tiles shows coarse pictures and notices, which is a niche kind of sign.

Who is paid. Theatres, stations and advertisers buy it, and it is simple machinery any workshop can copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of AIRE: Software that decodes protected programs to reveal exactly how they work.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

AIRE

Mother of Storms, John Barnes · 1994

Software that decodes protected programs to reveal exactly how they work.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Laying bare how a protected program works matters to a narrow set of security and software firms.

Who is paid. Those firms pay, and once one such tool exists others could write their own, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Vai-Chi: A martial exercise routine performed inside a virtual environment.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vai-Chi

Rim, Alexander Besher · 1994

A martial exercise routine performed inside a virtual environment.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is an exercise routine done inside a computer-made world, a pastime and not a technology that is sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ava: A program that learns from its user and tutors them in return.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ava

The Calcutta Chromosome, Amitav Ghosh · 1995

A program that learns from its user and tutors them in return.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A patient private tutor for every learner would change the cost and quality of schooling, which is one industry however many people it reaches.

Who is paid. I assume families buy it rather than schools, and teaching software is easy for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mediatron: An ultra-thin connected display sheet like electronic paper.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mediatron

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

An ultra-thin connected display sheet like electronic paper.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A screen as thin and light as paper is a general display that could replace print and fixed sets, which changes the costs of a whole industry.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and the firms that already make and sell screens and pocket computers add the feature and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Primer: An adaptive interactive book that tutors a child, starting with reading and speech.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Primer

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

An adaptive interactive book that tutors a child, starting with reading and speech.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A patient private tutor for every learner would change the cost and quality of schooling, which is one industry however many people it reaches.

Who is paid. Parents buy it for their children, and teaching software is easy for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Computer Translator: Software that translates languages automatically once connected to a device.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Computer Translator

Idoru, William Gibson · 1996

Software that translates languages automatically once connected to a device.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Letting any two people talk and read across languages opens up travel, trade and work, which is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Travellers, migrants and other ordinary people buy it to use themselves, firms buy it too, and once it works many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Control-Face: A small handheld screen that serves as a portal into a person's networked life.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Control-Face

Idoru, William Gibson · 1996

A small handheld screen that serves as a portal into a person's networked life.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A networked computer in the hand changes how most people talk, shop, work and find things out.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy one each, many firms can make them, and those with the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Cybernetic Water Witch: Someone who sifts through vast streams of data to spot meaningful patterns.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cybernetic Water Witch

Idoru, William Gibson · 1996

Someone who sifts through vast streams of data to spot meaningful patterns.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Finding patterns in data is a trade whose work is sold, a narrow service to the firms that hold the data.

Who is paid. Firms pay such people for their labour, and anyone with the skill can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Headset: Wireless earpieces that translate speech from other languages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Headset

Idoru, William Gibson · 1996

Wireless earpieces that translate speech from other languages.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Letting any two people talk and read across languages opens up travel, trade and work, which is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Travellers, migrants and other ordinary people buy it to use themselves, firms buy it too, and once it works many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Idoru: A synthetic celebrity personality that lives only on digital networks.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Idoru

Idoru, William Gibson · 1996

A synthetic celebrity personality that lives only on digital networks.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A made-up star who truly held an audience would earn what a real star earns without ever tiring or ageing.

Who is paid. Fans pay through music, shows and goods, and I assume the law lets the owner of the character alone use it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sandbenders: A handmade, individually crafted computer, the opposite of mass-market hardware.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sandbenders

Idoru, William Gibson · 1996

A handmade, individually crafted computer, the opposite of mass-market hardware.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A handmade computer does what a factory one does and pleases a few buyers who want craft.

Who is paid. A few buyers pay extra for the handwork, and any skilled workshop can do the same, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Virtual Meeting: A simulated room where people gather online to meet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Virtual Meeting

Idoru, William Gibson · 1996

A simulated room where people gather online to meet.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Unlike a whole computer-made world, a simulated meeting room does one job, saving some travel, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. Firms pay for it so staff can meet from afar, and many firms can offer the same, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mook: Software that stands in for its owner, screening and answering messages on their behalf.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mook

Bicycle Repairman, Bruce Sterling · 1997

Software that stands in for its owner, screening and answering messages on their behalf.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Software that answers on your behalf saves its owner time and trouble, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay a little for it, and it is easy to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Aggressive-Response Service: A call-answering service programmed to rebuff unwanted callers rudely.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Aggressive-Response Service

The Golden Globe, John Varley · 1998

A call-answering service programmed to rebuff unwanted callers rudely.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Having unwanted callers turned away is a small convenience.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay a little for it, and it is simple to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of AI-Based Hiring and Firing: Software that decides which workers a company takes on and lets go.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

AI-Based Hiring and Firing

Manna, Marshall Brain · 2002

Software that decides which workers a company takes on and lets go.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Choosing and dismissing staff by software would change the cost of running every large employer.

Who is paid. Employers pay, the software is easy to copy, and firms that already hold companies' staff records collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Data Tiles: See-through glass slides that carry files and software between machines.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Data Tiles

Minority Report (Movie), Steven Spielberg · 2002

See-through glass slides that carry files and software between machines.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Small, cheap ways of keeping and carrying data are needed by every computer user and make an industry of their own.

Who is paid. Firms and their customers buy it in bulk, the idea is easy to copy, and those who already own the costly factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Wired Glove Interface Display: A big screen whose contents a user moves around with hand gestures made in sensor gloves.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wired Glove Interface Display

Minority Report (Movie), Steven Spielberg · 2002

A big screen whose contents a user moves around with hand gestures made in sensor gloves.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Moving things on a big screen with gloved hands is a showy way to sort information and no faster than simpler tools.

Who is paid. Police and other offices would buy it, and many firms can make the gloves and screen, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Workplace Distancing: Management software that schedules staff so colleagues never meet during shifts.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Workplace Distancing

Manna, Marshall Brain · 2002

Management software that schedules staff so colleagues never meet during shifts.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Software that sets shifts so staff never meet is a narrow management tool.

Who is paid. Employers buy it, and any software firm can write a scheduling program, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Email Shirt: Clothing with a built-in screen that displays incoming messages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Email Shirt

Oryx and Crake, Margaret Atwood · 2003

Clothing with a built-in screen that displays incoming messages.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Putting a small computer into something worn is a convenience beside the pocket computer people already carry.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, it is easy to copy, and firms with known brands in gadgets or clothing collect what little is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Handipad: A handheld electronic slate for looking things up.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Handipad

Wyrmhole, Jay Caselberg · 2003

A handheld electronic slate for looking things up.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A handheld slate for looking anything up, which I assume draws on a network, is the pocket computer under another name and changes how most people find things out.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy one each, many firms can make them, and those with the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ideator: A computer tool for modelling and identifying genes and proteins.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ideator

Darwin's Children, Greg Bear · 2003

A computer tool for modelling and identifying genes and proteins.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A tool that models genes and proteins well would cut the cost and time of finding new medicines.

Who is paid. Drug and farming firms buy it, and I assume the methods spread among those who build such tools, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Touch Tablet: A wireless slate computer operated by touch.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Touch Tablet

Darwin's Children, Greg Bear · 2003

A wireless slate computer operated by touch.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A wireless slate worked by touch is a networked computer in the hand, which I assume is of broad use, and that changes how most people talk, shop, work and find things out.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy one each, many firms can make them, and those with the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Camera Tunnel: A camera rig that photographs scraps of paper so software can rebuild the pages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Camera Tunnel

Rainbows End, Vernor Vinge · 2006

A camera rig that photographs scraps of paper so software can rebuild the pages.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Rebuilding pages from scraps serves a few libraries, archives and investigators.

Who is paid. Those bodies pay, and cameras and matching software are easy to assemble, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Airboarding: Typing on an invisible keyboard projected in empty air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Airboarding

Halting State, Charles Stross · 2007

Typing on an invisible keyboard projected in empty air.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A new way to type or point is a convenience, since keyboards and screens already do the job.

Who is paid. Ordinary people get it inside gadgets they buy, and it is easy to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Max Detention (Virtual Counsel): An artificial intelligence that acts as a person's legal advocate.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Max Detention (Virtual Counsel)

Quantico, Greg Bear · 2007

An artificial intelligence that acts as a person's legal advocate.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Legal work done by machine would cut the cost of contracts, disputes and advice across the whole legal trade.

Who is paid. A person in trouble with the law is assumed to buy this one, unlike the firms assumed for other legal machines, and once machines can do legal work many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tongue Mouse: A pointer controlled by moving the tongue, for hands-free computing.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tongue Mouse

Quantico, Greg Bear · 2007

A pointer controlled by moving the tongue, for hands-free computing.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A new way to give a computer commands is a convenience for most users and a real help for a few.

Who is paid. Ordinary users buy it as an add-on, and many gadget firms can make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Virtual World Theft: Techniques for stealing or covertly transferring valuable items held inside online games.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Virtual World Theft

Halting State, Charles Stross · 2007

Techniques for stealing or covertly transferring valuable items held inside online games.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. These are thieves' tricks for stealing game goods, a hazard to players and not something that may lawfully be sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of ParanoidLinux: An operating system that hides what its user is doing among decoy activity.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

ParanoidLinux

Little Brother, Cory Doctorow · 2008

An operating system that hides what its user is doing among decoy activity.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Hiding one's tracks matters greatly to a few people and little to most, so it is a niche.

Who is paid. The few who want it get it themselves, and such software is freely copied and often given away, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Photonomous: Software that removes a camera's identifying traces from an image file.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Photonomous

Little Brother, Cory Doctorow · 2008

Software that removes a camera's identifying traces from an image file.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Hiding one's tracks matters greatly to a few people and little to most, so it is a niche.

Who is paid. The few who want it get it themselves, and such software is freely copied and often given away, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Logical Pathogen: A fictional malicious code hidden in genetic material, a hazard in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Logical Pathogen

The Medusa Chronicles, Alastair Reynolds (w/S. Baxter · 2016

A fictional malicious code hidden in genetic material, a hazard in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Judged as a working weapon rather than as the harm it does, harmful code hidden in genetic material is a narrow tool of attack.

Who is paid. Those it harms pay nothing, so I assume a government buys it as a weapon, and since such code can be written by others the firms that already supply states with arms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Communication, media and displays · 77
Illustration of Aerial Telegraph: Radio links letting people in sealed suits talk to each other.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Aerial Telegraph

Edison's Conquest of Mars, Garrett P. Serviss · 1898

Radio links letting people in sealed suits talk to each other.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Radio between people in sealed suits is essential to the few who work in such suits and of no use to anyone else.

Who is paid. Assuming the suits are worn by space crews and the like, a government pays, and the firms that already supply suits and radios to such programmes collect because the radio is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Interplanetary Radiograph Station: A chain of radio relay stations linking the planets into one messaging network.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Interplanetary Radiograph Station

On The Martian Way, Harry Gore Bishop · 1907

A chain of radio relay stations linking the planets into one messaging network.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Assuming the planets are settled as in the story, a message link among them carries all their trade and news, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Assuming firms and settlers pay by the message, nothing described stops a rival from building its own stations, so the carriers and fleet owners who already hold the home networks where every message starts and ends, and the ships to place and tend stations, collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Telephone Funnel: A public speaker unit that both broadcasts and picks up voices for conversation.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telephone Funnel

The Messiah of the Cylinder, Victor Rousseau · 1917

A public speaker unit that both broadcasts and picks up voices for conversation.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A fixed loudspeaker system for speaking to people in public places is an ordinary piece of public equipment.

Who is paid. The authorities pay to install it in streets and squares, and since it is easy to make, the firms that already hold such supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Telestereo: A round screen showing a live image of someone calling from far away.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telestereo

Crashing Suns, Edmond Hamilton · 1928

A round screen showing a live image of someone calling from far away.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Seeing the person you are talking to is something most people now use, and it is worth an industry.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for the device and the line, and since many can make the device, the firms that already own the phone networks and handset brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spacegram: A text messaging service relaying short written dispatches between ships and worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spacegram

An Adventure on Eros, J. Harvey Haggard · 1931

A text messaging service relaying short written dispatches between ships and worlds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Carrying messages between ships and worlds would be a telegraph industry for a settled solar system, assuming there are many people out there to serve.

Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations, ship owners and firms trading between worlds pay for the traffic, the link is ordinary radio that others could build, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Daisy Projector: Sends a signal beam through the upper atmosphere's reflective layer so planets can talk to each other.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Daisy Projector

The Derelicts of Ganymede, John W. Campbell · 1932

Sends a signal beam through the upper atmosphere's reflective layer so planets can talk to each other.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Assuming the planets are settled as in the story, a link between them carries all their trade and news.

Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations, firms on each planet pay for the traffic, the beam is ordinary radio that others could build, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ether-Traffic: The shared band of radio channels that ships and planets use to talk across the solar system.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ether-Traffic

The Duel on the Asteroid, P. Schuyler Miller (w/D. McDermott · 1932

The shared band of radio channels that ships and planets use to talk across the solar system.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The shared radio channels are what every ship and planet needs in order to talk, so the right to use them is worth an industry.

Who is paid. Ship operators and broadcasters pay for channels, and since users cannot share a channel a government hands out a limited number of rights, which those who hold them can charge for.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Scent-Organ: A machine that releases chosen smells on cue, played like an instrument of odours.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Scent-Organ

Brave New World, Aldous Huxley · 1932

A machine that releases chosen smells on cue, played like an instrument of odours.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Smells on cue add a novelty to shows and homes.

Who is paid. I assumed households and showmen buy it; once shown, many firms could make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Telectroscope: An electrically enhanced instrument that sees far more distant detail than ordinary optical scopes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telectroscope

Invaders From The Infinite, John W. Campbell · 1932

An electrically enhanced instrument that sees far more distant detail than ordinary optical scopes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A scope that sees much farther than glass alone serves astronomers and watchers, a narrow group.

Who is paid. I assume observatories and armed forces are the main buyers, and since others could build one, the firms that already supply such instruments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Selective Television: Lets a viewer call up a live picture of any chosen place on Earth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Selective Television

The Challenge of Atlantis, Arthur J. Burks · 1938

Lets a viewer call up a live picture of any chosen place on Earth.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Calling up a live view of any place would be worth an industry for travel, news and watching over things.

Who is paid. Assuming households buy the viewer and it needs no network of cameras that a single firm owns, others could build it once it is known to work, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Automatic Delivery Library: A library system that hands over any requested book almost instantly.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automatic Delivery Library

The Lord of Tranerica, Stanton A. Coblentz · 1939

A library system that hands over any requested book almost instantly.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Any book in your hands almost at once would change what libraries and bookshops cost to run.

Who is paid. Assuming readers pay by fee or subscription, the delivery machinery can be copied, so the publishers who own the right to the books collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Telescribe: Automatically writes down incoming emergency calls and other radio reports.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telescribe

A Question of Salvage, Malcolm Jameson · 1939

Automatically writes down incoming emergency calls and other radio reports.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Writing down incoming radio calls by machine saves a clerk in a control room, which is a narrow saving.

Who is paid. Ship and rescue operators buy it, and since many can make such a recorder, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Bifocal TV Screen Lenses: Eyeglasses whose lower half doubles as a small video display.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bifocal TV Screen Lenses

Doom Over Venus, Edmond Hamilton · 1940

Eyeglasses whose lower half doubles as a small video display.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A screen in your glasses, working as promised, would take over much of what people now do on handheld screens.

Who is paid. People buy them for themselves, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hush-a-Phone: A mouthpiece attachment for phones that keeps a caller's voice private and cuts room noise.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hush-a-Phone

The Roads Must Roll, Robert Heinlein · 1940

A mouthpiece attachment for phones that keeps a caller's voice private and cuts room noise.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A mouthpiece that keeps a call private and cuts room noise is a minor convenience.

Who is paid. Callers buy it as an add-on and it is a simple shaped part anyone can make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Trumpaphone: A blaring musical horn with a harsh metallic sound.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Trumpaphone

The Voyage That Lasted 600 Years, Don Wilcox · 1940

A blaring musical horn with a harsh metallic sound.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A loud, harsh horn is one more musical instrument for the few who want it.

Who is paid. Players buy it, and since any instrument maker could build one, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Voder: A machine that generates spoken words without any human voice.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Voder

Exit From Asteroid 60, D.L. James · 1940

A machine that generates spoken words without any human voice.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that speak like people let firms answer calls, read text aloud and voice their products without hiring speakers.

Who is paid. Firms buy it to build into their own products and services, and since many can make a talking machine, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Music: Songs both composed and played by machines with no human performers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Music

The Robot God, Ray Cummings · 1941

Songs both composed and played by machines with no human performers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Songs written and played with no human performers remove the main cost of the music trade.

Who is paid. Listeners pay, and unlike a machine voice singing songs someone owns, once machines can write the songs as well anyone can run them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of News Roundup: Shows short summaries of current stories and lets you open any one for more.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

News Roundup

Beyond This Horizon, Robert Heinlein · 1942

Shows short summaries of current stories and lets you open any one for more.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Short summaries that open into the full story are a handier way to read the news people already get.

Who is paid. Readers pay, the layout is easy to copy, and the news firms that already gather the reports collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Telaudiogram: A method for sending voice and text messages across distances between planets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telaudiogram

The World With A Thousand Moons, Edmond Hamilton · 1942

A method for sending voice and text messages across distances between planets.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Carrying messages between ships and worlds would be a telegraph industry for a settled solar system, assuming there are many people out there to serve.

Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations, ship owners and firms trading between worlds pay for the traffic, the link is ordinary radio that others could build, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Viewscreen Pentagon: A central five-sided screen ringed by square monitors fixed along its edges.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Viewscreen Pentagon

Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943

A central five-sided screen ringed by square monitors fixed along its edges.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. One odd arrangement of screens round a many-sided centre is a control-room fitting, not a new kind of thing.

Who is paid. Operators of ships or control rooms buy it, and since it is only ordinary screens set in a frame, the firms that already own the screen factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Metal Foil Advertisement: Promotional leaflets printed on thin sheets of metal.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Metal Foil Advertisement

The Illustrated Man, Ray Bradbury · 1951

Promotional leaflets printed on thin sheets of metal.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An eye-catching printing trick is a small edge for an advert.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay and any printer can do it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Airplane Window Ads: Aircraft windows that double as screens showing commercials to passengers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Airplane Window Ads

The Space Merchants, Frederik Pohl (w/CM Kornbluth · 1952

Aircraft windows that double as screens showing commercials to passengers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Advertisements on aircraft windows are one more place to show commercials to a captive audience.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay, the screens are easy to make, and the airlines that own the planes and the passengers' attention collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Light Absorbing/Emitting Ink: Glow-in-the-dark printing ink that stores light and flashes it back to catch shoppers' eyes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Light Absorbing/Emitting Ink

Gravy Planet, Frederik Pohl (w/CM Kornbluth · 1952

Glow-in-the-dark printing ink that stores light and flashes it back to catch shoppers' eyes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An eye-catching printing trick is a small edge for an advert.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay and any printer can do it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Buy-Me-Discs: Small tags on shop goods that pick up broadcast pitches and play them to shoppers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Buy-Me-Discs

Captive Audience, Anne Warren Griffith · 1953

Small tags on shop goods that pick up broadcast pitches and play them to shoppers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Tags that play sales pitches from the shelf are one more way to advertise.

Who is paid. Brands pay to tag their own goods, and since the tag is the thing sold and any electronics workshop could make it, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Control Screen: A monitoring and command screen used by visiting aliens.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Control Screen

Childhood's End, Arthur C. Clarke · 1953

A monitoring and command screen used by visiting aliens.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A screen for watching and directing things is an ordinary piece of working equipment.

Who is paid. Organisations buy such screens for their control rooms, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Permanent Skywriting: Messages written across the sky that hold their shape instead of drifting apart.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Permanent Skywriting

Soap Opera, Alan Nelson · 1953

Messages written across the sky that hold their shape instead of drifting apart.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sign in the sky is one more place to advertise, seen by those beneath it.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and assuming the sky stays open to whoever can put a sign there, as with messages thrown on the clouds, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Synthony: A concert played entirely by machine musicians.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Synthony

The Music Master, F.L. Wallace · 1953

A concert played entirely by machine musicians.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A concert played by machines is a show some people would pay to hear, one kind among many.

Who is paid. Concert-goers buy tickets, and since anyone with the machines could stage such a show, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of TBR (Talk Between Robots) Circuit: A dedicated channel that lets machines exchange messages directly with one another.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

TBR (Talk Between Robots) Circuit

The Midas Plague, Frederik Pohl · 1954

A dedicated channel that lets machines exchange messages directly with one another.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Letting machines pass messages straight to each other lets factories and services run with far less human relaying.

Who is paid. Firms buy it built into their machines, and since a shared channel only works if every maker can use it, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mechanical Newsmachine: A machine that dispenses breaking news reports right where you are.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mechanical Newsmachine

Foster, You're Dead, Philip K. Dick · 1955

A machine that dispenses breaking news reports right where you are.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Getting the news at the moment and place you choose is a convenience over waiting for the paper.

Who is paid. Readers pay; the machine is easy to copy, so the news firms that already gather the reports collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Maximum-security Booth: A private cubicle for taking encrypted calls that carry three-dimensional pictures of the caller.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Maximum-security Booth

Double Star, Robert Heinlein · 1956

A private cubicle for taking encrypted calls that carry three-dimensional pictures of the caller.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A secure booth for solid-looking calls is a niche for officials and firms with secrets.

Who is paid. I assumed firms and offices buy it; it can be copied, so the firms that own the phone networks collect, as with other picture calls.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Whisper Line: A hidden acoustic path that lets isolated prisoners talk to one another across distance.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Whisper Line

The Stars My Destination, Alfred Bester · 1956

A hidden acoustic path that lets isolated prisoners talk to one another across distance.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A chance quirk of a prison's walls that lets inmates whisper to each other is not a product anyone sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so there is no payer and no seller.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Memo-Voice: Paper notes that speak their contents out loud.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Memo-Voice

War Game, Philip K. Dick · 1959

Paper notes that speak their contents out loud.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A note that speaks its contents is a novelty for offices.

Who is paid. I assumed offices buy it; many firms could make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Domed Mapviewer: A lit, dome-shaped screen that shows maps.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Domed Mapviewer

Dorsai!, Gordon R. Dickson · 1960

A lit, dome-shaped screen that shows maps.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lit dome that shows maps is a piece of planning equipment for a few users.

Who is paid. Assuming it is used by military staff as in the story, a government pays, and the firms that already supply armies with such equipment collect because it is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Interactive Map: A small book whose paper pages act as a touch-sensitive map.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Interactive Map

Return from the Stars, Stanislaw Lem · 1961

A small book whose paper pages act as a touch-sensitive map.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A touch-sensitive paper map is a handy travel aid.

Who is paid. Travellers buy it, the touch-sensitive pages are thin screens that can be copied, and the display makers with the factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Recording Radio: A handheld unit that captures audio and streams it live to a distant station.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Recording Radio

Four-Day Planet, H. Beam Piper · 1961

A handheld unit that captures audio and streams it live to a distant station.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Portable recording and sending kit is a useful tool for one trade.

Who is paid. News firms buy it and many makers can build such kit, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Free Telephone Call: Phone service paid for by short ads rather than fees.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Free Telephone Call

The Subliminal Man, J.G. Ballard · 1963

Phone service paid for by short ads rather than fees.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Calls paid for by listening to advertisements save callers a little money.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay in place of the callers, any phone firm could offer it, and the firms that own the phone networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of News Clown: A broadcaster who presents curated lighthearted news.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

News Clown

Stand-By, Philip K. Dick · 1963

A broadcaster who presents curated lighthearted news.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A light-hearted news show is one more programme among many.

Who is paid. I assumed viewers pay; anyone can present a show, so the broadcasters who already hold the channels collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Subliminal Billboards: Huge roadside signs that seem empty but carry hidden advertising messages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Subliminal Billboards

The Subliminal Man, J.G. Ballard · 1963

Huge roadside signs that seem empty but carry hidden advertising messages.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Signs that truly made passers-by buy without knowing why would change what sellers spend to win customers.

Who is paid. Firms with goods to sell pay for the space, and since the hidden message is easy to copy, the owners of the roadside sites collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Adjustable Television: A TV that lets viewers alter what politicians say in broadcast speeches.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Adjustable Television

The Simulacra, Philip K. Dick · 1964

A TV that lets viewers alter what politicians say in broadcast speeches.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Changing what politicians appear to say on your own set is a toy, and a troubling one, not a need.

Who is paid. Viewers would buy it as a novelty feature and any set maker could add it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Identificator: A projector that shows holographic door signs.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Identificator

The Star King, Jack Vance · 1964

A projector that shows holographic door signs.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A projected sign on a door is decoration, unlike a full display with depth.

Who is paid. Shops and offices buy it as signage and many sign makers could supply it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Word Tab: A tappable link in an electronic document that brings up more detail.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Word Tab

Cantata 140, Philip K. Dick · 1964

A tappable link in an electronic document that brings up more detail.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A link you tap for more detail is a handy feature inside documents, not a product on its own.

Who is paid. Firms that make reading software build it in, and since anyone can add such a link, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Battery-Powered 3D Comic Book: A comic book whose pages animate using a battery.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Battery-Powered 3D Comic Book

The Zap Gun, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A comic book whose pages animate using a battery.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A comic whose pages move is a novelty for readers.

Who is paid. Readers buy it, the moving page is easy to copy, and the publishers who own the popular characters collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Battle Language: A military language built to be clear to allies and hard for outsiders to translate.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Battle Language

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A military language built to be clear to allies and hard for outsiders to translate.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A spoken code for one army is useful to that army alone.

Who is paid. A government pays to have it devised and taught, and a language cannot be owned and any group of linguists could make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Minimic Film: An extremely fine medium for carrying messages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Minimic Film

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

An extremely fine medium for carrying messages.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A compact way to carry a message or recording is a niche tool.

Who is paid. I assumed firms and officials buy it; many makers could produce it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Personalized Fashion Display: Screens showing you wearing different outfits.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Personalized Fashion Display

Bill the Galactic Hero, Harry Harrison · 1965

Screens showing you wearing different outfits.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Seeing yourself in different outfits on a screen is a sales aid for clothes shops.

Who is paid. Shops buy it, a screen and camera can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Reciprocal Name: A short nickname that maps to someone's full identity and phone number.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Reciprocal Name

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

A short nickname that maps to someone's full identity and phone number.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A short name that stands for a full identity and number is a convenience.

Who is paid. Phone users pay; the idea is easy to copy, so the network firms that already hold the directory collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Virtual Kiss (Tactile Net): A device that transmits the touch of a kiss over a distance.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Virtual Kiss (Tactile Net)

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

A device that transmits the touch of a kiss over a distance.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Feeling a far-off partner's touch is a novelty for couples who are apart.

Who is paid. Couples would buy it for themselves, and since many could make such a gadget, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Homeopape: A machine that assembles and prints a newspaper with no human editors.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Homeopape

Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A machine that assembles and prints a newspaper with no human editors.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. News put together with no human editors removes the main cost of the news trade.

Who is paid. Assuming a machine readers buy or subscribe to, once machines can write the news anyone can run one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Pape Machine: A device that prints a freshly tailored newspaper and lets readers search the news.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pape Machine

Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A device that prints a freshly tailored newspaper and lets readers search the news.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. News sorted to each reader's interests changes how the news trade reaches people.

Who is paid. Readers pay by subscription; the sorting is easy to copy, so those who already hold the reporting and the audience collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Translator Discs: Worn devices that link to a computer to translate speech between languages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Translator Discs

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

Worn devices that link to a computer to translate speech between languages.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Being understood in any language while wearing a small disc removes a barrier to travel and trade for a great many people.

Who is paid. Travellers and traders buy it, and once one firm had made a good translator others could too, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Transmit-Paper: Writing sheets that send pen strokes over a network to distant computers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Transmit-Paper

The Godmakers, Frank Herbert · 1972

Writing sheets that send pen strokes over a network to distant computers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Paper that sends pen strokes to a distant computer is a handy way to enter notes, not a need.

Who is paid. Offices buy it, and since many can make such sheets, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Comlink: A small handheld device for talking to others remotely.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Comlink

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

A small handheld device for talking to others remotely.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A small device for talking to anyone at a distance changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. People buy one each, handsets are easy to copy, and the firms that own the networks the calls travel over collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ghostsmoke: Promotional images cast onto a hanging cloud of fine spray.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ghostsmoke

The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977

Promotional images cast onto a hanging cloud of fine spray.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Images on a cloud of spray are one more way to catch the eye for an advertisement.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and a sprayer and a projector are easy for anyone to set up, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Holomist: Advertising projected onto a curtain of fine vapour.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Holomist

The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977

Advertising projected onto a curtain of fine vapour.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Advertising on a curtain of vapour is one more way to catch the eye.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and a sprayer and a projector are easy for anyone to set up, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Wristband Viewer: A wrist-worn screen for watching images sent down from overhead surveillance.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wristband Viewer

Changeling, Roger Zelazny · 1980

A wrist-worn screen for watching images sent down from overhead surveillance.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A wrist screen showing pictures from watchers overhead is a tool for those who do the watching.

Who is paid. Unlike the other wrist devices, this one serves surveillance, so police and armed forces pay and the firms that already hold their contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Black square: A device for exchanging hidden messages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Black square

God Emperor of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1981

A device for exchanging hidden messages.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A device for passing hidden messages serves the few who need secrecy.

Who is paid. The description gives little, so assuming firms and officials with secrets buy it, ways of hiding messages are widely known and many could make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Advertising Airship: A blimp whose sides carry colourful video commercials.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Advertising Airship

Blade Runner, Ridley Scott · 1982

A blimp whose sides carry colourful video commercials.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A flying video billboard is one more place to show advertisements.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay for the space, and anyone can fly a blimp with screens over a city, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Command Microphone: A cape that doubles as a voice pickup and loudspeaker.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Command Microphone

Diplomat At Arms, Keith Laumer · 1982

A cape that doubles as a voice pickup and loudspeaker.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cape that picks up and amplifies the voice is a niche piece of kit for those who address crowds.

Who is paid. Assuming speakers and the organisations they work for buy it, it is a microphone and speaker sewn into cloth that anyone could make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Generate New Phone Number: Software that assigns a fresh calling number to every call placed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Generate New Phone Number

Press Enter, John Varley · 1984

Software that assigns a fresh calling number to every call placed.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A fresh number for every call serves the few who want not to be traced.

Who is paid. People who want privacy pay for it, and it is software many could write, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Credibility Rating: A score attached to online writing that tells readers how trustworthy it is.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Credibility Rating

Earth, David Brin · 1990

A score attached to online writing that tells readers how trustworthy it is.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A score that reliably told readers what to trust online would reshape news and publishing.

Who is paid. Assuming sites and publishers pay to carry the score, the scorer that readers have come to trust is hard to copy because trust takes long to earn.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of True-Vu Lenses (Goggles): Wearable eyepieces that let the user look through them while capturing video of the scene.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

True-Vu Lenses (Goggles)

Earth, David Brin · 1990

Wearable eyepieces that let the user look through them while capturing video of the scene.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Eyewear that films what the wearer sees is a camera worn on the face, a gadget some people would enjoy.

Who is paid. Unlike eyewear that shows pictures, this only records, so I assume it stays an extra that ordinary people buy, and since many can make one, the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Voice-Changing Bowtie: A wearable gadget that makes the wearer sound like someone else.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Voice-Changing Bowtie

Case Closed (Detective Conan), Gosho Aoyama · 1994

A wearable gadget that makes the wearer sound like someone else.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Sounding like someone else is a toy and a tool for performers and pranksters.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and since many can make a voice changer, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mediaglyphic: Moving pictograms that stand in for written text for people who cannot read.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mediaglyphic

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

Moving pictograms that stand in for written text for people who cannot read.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Moving signs that stand in for text help those who cannot read, a narrow use once judged as the work of devising and drawing them.

Who is paid. Assuming publishers and sign makers pay designers to draw the signs, as an army would pay for a battle language, a way of writing cannot be owned and any designer could offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mediatronic Display: Large, thin sheets of digital paper that can show any text or image.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mediatronic Display

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

Large, thin sheets of digital paper that can show any text or image.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A screen as thin and bendable as paper could replace much printing and most rigid screens.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it inside the things they own; once shown it can be copied, so the firms with the big screen factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Smart Paper: An ultra-thin flexible screen sheet that behaves like paper.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Smart Paper

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

An ultra-thin flexible screen sheet that behaves like paper.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A screen as thin and bendable as paper could replace much printing and most rigid screens.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it inside the things they own; once shown it can be copied, so the firms with the big screen factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Eyephone(s): Compact goggles that beam pictures straight onto the wearer's eyes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Eyephone(s)

Idoru, William Gibson · 1996

Compact goggles that beam pictures straight onto the wearer's eyes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Goggles that put pictures straight onto the eyes, working as promised, would take over much of what people now do on handheld screens.

Who is paid. People buy them for themselves, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Synthespian: A computer-generated celebrity who performs and interacts with fans as if real.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Synthespian

Idoru, William Gibson · 1996

A computer-generated celebrity who performs and interacts with fans as if real.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A made-up star who performs and answers fans as if real could carry a whole entertainment business.

Who is paid. Fans pay for the music, the shows and the goods, and though one character can be owned, any studio could make a star of its own, so the studios and labels that already own the stages and the audiences collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of UPUD: A satellite position and communications link used by soldiers in the field.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

UPUD

First to Fight, David Sherman (w/Cragg) · 1997

A satellite position and communications link used by soldiers in the field.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Knowing where every soldier is and being able to reach them from orbit changes how an army fights.

Who is paid. The armed forces pay, and since several firms could build the handsets and satellites, those that already hold defence contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Monobloc Dating System: A bar fitted with special machines and software that pair up patrons for romance.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Monobloc Dating System

The Best of all Possible Wars, Larry Niven · 1998

A bar fitted with special machines and software that pair up patrons for romance.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A bar that pairs up its patrons is a niche amusement.

Who is paid. Patrons pay and any bar could install such machines, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Interactive Video Column: A shop display streaming live views from sister stores around the world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Interactive Video Column

All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999

A shop display streaming live views from sister stores around the world.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A display of live views from other shops is a decoration for a store.

Who is paid. Shop chains buy it, a screen and a camera link can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Minority Report Ads (Biometric Personalized Ads): Street displays that recognise passers-by and pitch products to them personally.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Minority Report Ads (Biometric Personalized Ads)

Minority Report (Movie), Steven Spielberg · 2002

Street displays that recognise passers-by and pitch products to them personally.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Unlike a plain sign, a display that knows each passer-by and pitches to them personally would change what public advertising is worth.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay; the screens are easy to copy, so those who already hold the sites and the records about people collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Speaker Chips: Tiny chips in books that read aloud and pitch the book to shoppers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Speaker Chips

Darwin's Children, Greg Bear · 2003

Tiny chips in books that read aloud and pitch the book to shoppers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A chip that makes a book pitch itself from the shelf is one more way to advertise.

Who is paid. Publishers pay to put the chip in their own books, and since the chip is the thing sold and is cheap and simple to copy, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Blacknet: A hidden online network for criminal and hostile collaboration.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Blacknet

Halting State, Charles Stross · 2007

A hidden online network for criminal and hostile collaboration.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A hidden network serves the few who must work out of sight, here criminals and hostile groups, though the law forbids it.

Who is paid. Assuming the groups that use it pay for access, anyone with the know-how can set up a hidden network and the law pursues whoever runs it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of SPOOKS: A live role-playing game in which ordinary citizens pretend to be secret agents in the real world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

SPOOKS

Halting State, Charles Stross · 2007

A live role-playing game in which ordinary citizens pretend to be secret agents in the real world.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A game of pretend spying in real streets is an amusement for the people who like that sort of play.

Who is paid. Players pay to join, and since the description does not say the game needs a single shared crowd, I assume any organiser could run one like it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Kinagram: Small printed pictures that appear to move.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Kinagram

Anathem, Neal Stephenson · 2008

Small printed pictures that appear to move.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Small printed pictures that seem to move are a novelty.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy them and any printer could make them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of DNA Music Storage: Storing recorded songs inside non-coding stretches of an organism's genome.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

DNA Music Storage

Year Zero, Rob Reid · 2012

Storing recorded songs inside non-coding stretches of an organism's genome.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping songs inside a living thing's genes is a curiosity beside ordinary storage.

Who is paid. Assuming archives and labels pay for it as long-term storage, many laboratories can write genetic code, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Burner Modem: A cheap network connection device meant to be discarded after use.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Burner Modem

The Breach, M.T. Hill · 2020

A cheap network connection device meant to be discarded after use.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A network connection you throw away after use serves the few who want not to be traced.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves and it is cheap by design and simple to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Robotics and automation · 89
Illustration of Steam Horse: A machine built like an animal that walks and pulls loads on engine power.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Steam Horse

Le Monde Tel Qu'il Sera (The World As It Shall Be), Emile Souvestre · 1846

A machine built like an animal that walks and pulls loads on engine power.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A walking engine in animal form pulls loads, but the gain from engine power would come as well on wheels, so the legs earn only a niche where wheels fail.

Who is paid. Carriers and farmers on rough ground are assumed to buy it, and many makers could build one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Steam Man: A humanoid walking machine driven by a steam engine, able to haul a carriage behind it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Steam Man

The Steam Man of the Prairies, Edward S. Ellis · 1868

A humanoid walking machine driven by a steam engine, able to haul a carriage behind it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A walking engine in human form hauls a carriage, but the gain from engine power would come as well on wheels, so the legs earn only a niche where wheels fail.

Who is paid. Carriers on rough ground are assumed to buy it, and many makers could build one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Biomimicry: Building machines that move with the smooth, supple grace of living animals.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Biomimicry

The War of the Worlds, H.G. Wells · 1898

Building machines that move with the smooth, supple grace of living animals.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Giving machines the supple movement of animals is a way of building, valued only as part of the machines made with it.

Who is paid. Machine buyers pay for it in the price, and any maker can design this way, so nothing more is kept for it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Spider (Handling Machine): A many-limbed working machine operated as though it were part of its driver's own body.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Spider (Handling Machine)

The War of the Worlds, H.G. Wells · 1898

A many-limbed working machine operated as though it were part of its driver's own body.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A many-limbed machine worked as if it were the driver's own body is a skilled tool for handling and lifting, but still a tool that needs its operator.

Who is paid. Firms buy it for their own work, and such limbs and controls are easy for many makers to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Steel Tentacle: Bendable metal limbs that can carry a machine's weight and also grip things.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Steel Tentacle

The War of the Worlds, H.G. Wells · 1898

Bendable metal limbs that can carry a machine's weight and also grip things.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Bendable limbs that bear weight and grip are a useful working part of a machine, a feature.

Who is paid. Firms pay for them within the price of the machine, and such limbs are easy for many makers to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Tik-Tok: A clockwork humanoid that moves and speaks once its springs are wound.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tik-Tok

Ozma of Oz, L. Frank Baum · 1907

A clockwork humanoid that moves and speaks once its springs are wound.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description says what this wound-up man does, which is move and speak, and gives it no work or thought, so it is judged as a figure for show and not as the artificial worker of the stories.

Who is paid. Showmen and exhibitors are assumed to buy it, and many makers could build clockwork figures, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Automated Restaurant: A dining place where machines cook and deliver meals with no staff.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automated Restaurant

A Princess of Mars, Edgar Rice Burroughs · 1912

A dining place where machines cook and deliver meals with no staff.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Serving guests with no staff would change the costs of the whole trade.

Who is paid. Restaurant operators buy the machinery, and since many could build it the catering-equipment makers with service networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Flexible Metal Arms (Tentacles): Bendable mechanical limbs that curl and grip like an octopus's arms.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flexible Metal Arms (Tentacles)

The Metal Giants, Edmond Hamilton · 1926

Bendable mechanical limbs that curl and grip like an octopus's arms.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A remote or flexible gripper is a useful tool for awkward jobs, but a niche.

Who is paid. Firms buy it for their own work, and such grippers and controls are easy for many makers to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Shovel-Handed Digging Machines: Enormous walking machines on many legs with scoop-like arms that excavate and move soil.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Shovel-Handed Digging Machines

The Onslaught From Venus, Frank Phillips · 1929

Enormous walking machines on many legs with scoop-like arms that excavate and move soil.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Huge walking machines that dig and move soil would cut the cost of earthworks and mining.

Who is paid. Mining and building firms buy them, and since many could build them the heavy-equipment makers with dealers and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Bird-Like Robots: Mechanical birds built to perform as part of a theatre production.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bird-Like Robots

Flamingo: A Drama of A.D. 1950, Clarence Edward Heller · 1930

Mechanical birds built to perform as part of a theatre production.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Mechanical birds for a stage show are a prop for a single trade.

Who is paid. Theatres buy them, and any skilled prop workshop could make them.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Iron Fingers: Robotic grippers fixed to a spaceship's exterior and worked by crew from within.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Iron Fingers

The Death's Head Meteor, Neil R. Jones · 1930

Robotic grippers fixed to a spaceship's exterior and worked by crew from within.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A remote or flexible gripper is a useful tool for awkward jobs, but a niche.

Who is paid. Firms buy it for their own work, and such grippers and controls are easy for many makers to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Rubber Soled Feet: Soft cushioned soles fitted to robots to quiet their footsteps.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rubber Soled Feet

The Robot Terror, Melbourne Huff · 1930

Soft cushioned soles fitted to robots to quiet their footsteps.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Soft soles that quiet a robot's steps are a small feature of the machine.

Who is paid. Robot makers pay for it as a part of the machines they sell to firms, and any of them could fit it, so nothing extra is kept.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Porter Televox-Robot: A robot that hauls passengers' luggage along the corridors of a passenger spaceship.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Porter Televox-Robot

On Board the Martian Liner, Miles J. Breuer · 1931

A robot that hauls passengers' luggage along the corridors of a passenger spaceship.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A robot that hauls passengers' luggage is a convenience aboard a liner.

Who is paid. Ship lines buy them for their passengers, and many makers could build such a carrier, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Baby Robot: A machine built in the form of a newborn, behaving like a small child.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Baby Robot

Life Everlasting, David H. Keller · 1934

A machine built in the form of a newborn, behaving like a small child.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine in the form of a newborn is assumed to be a toy or a comfort, a niche.

Who is paid. Households would buy it, and many toy makers could build the like, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot-Control Wave Band: A reserved radio channel carries override commands that every robot must obey.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot-Control Wave Band

Rex, Harl Vincent · 1934

A reserved radio channel carries override commands that every robot must obey.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A reserved channel that can override every robot is a safety feature of the machines, not a product by itself.

Who is paid. Owners pay for it within the price of each robot, and every maker would be required to fit it, so nothing extra is kept.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Conscious Farm Machines: Agricultural equipment that plants, tends and harvests fields without anyone operating it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Conscious Farm Machines

The Hidden Colony, Otfrid von Hanstein · 1935

Agricultural equipment that plants, tends and harvests fields without anyone operating it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Farm machines that work fields with nobody driving would cut the labour cost of growing food across farming.

Who is paid. Farmers buy them, and since many could build them the farm-equipment makers with dealers and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Fruit-Picking Machine: A human-shaped machine that walks orchards and harvests ripe produce on its own.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fruit-Picking Machine

The Hidden Colony, Otfrid von Hanstein · 1935

A human-shaped machine that walks orchards and harvests ripe produce on its own.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that walks orchards and picks ripe fruit unaided would cut the labour cost of harvesting across fruit growing.

Who is paid. Farmers buy them, and since many could build them the farm-equipment makers with dealers and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Proxy Robot: A remotely piloted hovering robot that stands in for someone who cannot breathe the local air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Proxy Robot

Hotel Cosmos, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1938

A remotely piloted hovering robot that stands in for someone who cannot breathe the local air.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A hovering stand-in for someone who cannot breathe the local air serves a few travellers.

Who is paid. Hotels and firms that host such visitors are assumed to buy it, and such machines and their controls could be copied by many makers.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Teleoperated Robot Surrogate: A robot body steered from afar by an operator looking out through its eyes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Teleoperated Robot Surrogate

The Robot and the Lady, Manly Wade Wellman · 1938

A robot body steered from afar by an operator looking out through its eyes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A robot body steered from afar through its own eyes lets a person act at a distance, judged here as a tool for awkward or risky work.

Who is paid. Firms buy it for their own work, and such bodies and controls are easy for many makers to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gesturing Robot: A robot that talks with people through body movements and hand signs rather than speech.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gesturing Robot

Robbie, Isaac Asimov · 1940

A robot that talks with people through body movements and hand signs rather than speech.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Talking through gestures instead of speech is a feature of a robot, not a reason to buy it.

Who is paid. Families pay for it only within the price of a home robot, and any maker could add it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Talking Robot: A speaking mechanical figure built for show rather than useful work.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Talking Robot

Robbie, Isaac Asimov · 1940

A speaking mechanical figure built for show rather than useful work.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A speaking figure built for show draws a crowd but does no useful work, a niche.

Who is paid. Showmen and exhibitors buy it, and many makers could build one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Charging Arm: A limb a robot uses to plug itself in and top up its own battery.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Charging Arm

Masters of Chance, William Morrison · 1941

A limb a robot uses to plug itself in and top up its own battery.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Topping up its own battery is a useful feature of a machine, not a product people seek for itself.

Who is paid. Firms that run robots or pilotless craft pay for it as part of the machine, and any maker can add it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Floating Robot: A robot that hovers above the ground instead of walking or rolling.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Floating Robot

The Floating Robot, David Wright O'Brien · 1941

A robot that hovers above the ground instead of walking or rolling.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Hovering instead of walking is a way of getting about, and the description gives the robot no job.

Who is paid. Firms are assumed to buy it for work over rough floors, and once hovering works others could copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Fairy Digits (Tiny Waldoes): Miniature remote-controlled hands that copy an operator's motions at very small scale.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fairy Digits (Tiny Waldoes)

Waldo, Robert Heinlein · 1942

Miniature remote-controlled hands that copy an operator's motions at very small scale.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Tiny hands that copy an operator would open up very fine assembly and surgery.

Who is paid. Factories and hospitals buy them, and as scaled-down remote hands can be copied the established makers of precision and medical equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pilot-Robot: Automatic steering equipment that flies a small work vessel in space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pilot-Robot

Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942

Automatic steering equipment that flies a small work vessel in space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Automatic steering for a small work vessel is a fitting, valued as part of the craft.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the price of the craft, and any shipbuilder can fit it, so nothing more is kept for it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Wabbler: A self-guided machine that moves and operates beneath the sea without a crew.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wabbler

The Wabbler, Murray Leinster · 1942

A self-guided machine that moves and operates beneath the sea without a crew.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that guides itself under the sea with no crew would lower the cost of work under water; the description names no task, so that use is assumed.

Who is paid. Offshore firms are assumed to buy it, and since many could build one the marine-equipment makers with yards and fleets collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Waldo: A remote manipulator that reproduces the movements of an operator's hands on a mechanical pair.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Waldo

Waldo, Robert Heinlein · 1942

A remote manipulator that reproduces the movements of an operator's hands on a mechanical pair.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Mechanical hands that copy an operator's hands from afar are a useful tool for dangerous or awkward work, a niche where the real thing exists.

Who is paid. Firms buy it for their own work, and such hands and controls are easy for many makers to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Taste Buds: A sensor that lets a machine sample flavors the way a human tongue does.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Taste Buds

Robinc, Anthony Boucher · 1943

A sensor that lets a machine sample flavors the way a human tongue does.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sensor that tastes as a tongue does is a feature that lets a machine cook or test food.

Who is paid. Robot makers pay for it as a part of the machines they sell to firms, and any of them could fit it, so nothing extra is kept.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Usuform Robot: A machine shaped purely for the job it does rather than to look human.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Usuform Robot

Q.U.R., Anthony Boucher · 1943

A machine shaped purely for the job it does rather than to look human.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A robot shaped for the job it does is by its design a machine for a single trade and not the worker that can do most things, so each kind changes the costs of its own industry.

Who is paid. Firms buy them as equipment for their trade, and since many could build them the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Usuform Robot Bartender: A drink-serving machine shaped only by its task, not like a person.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Usuform Robot Bartender

Q.U.R., Anthony Boucher · 1943

A drink-serving machine shaped only by its task, not like a person.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine shaped only to serve drinks takes over a single job in the bar trade, a convenience and not a whole premises run with no staff.

Who is paid. Bar owners buy it, and a drink-serving machine is easy for many makers to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Automatic Massager

Far Centaurus, A.E. van Vogt · 1944

A robot with mechanical arms and hands that gives full-body massages without a therapist.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine massage is a comfort, not a need.

Who is paid. Spas and gyms are assumed to buy it, and mechanical arms of this kind are easy for many makers to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Multiple Robot Team: A lead robot directs a crew of simpler helper robots so the group works together on one job.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Multiple Robot Team

Catch That Rabbit, Isaac Asimov · 1944

A lead robot directs a crew of simpler helper robots so the group works together on one job.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A crew of robots led by one of their own could take over whole jobs in mines and plants.

Who is paid. Firms buy the crew, and since the robots and their way of working together can be copied the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Machine Servant: A household helper robot on wheels with flexible jointed arms for chores.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Machine Servant

The Star of Life, Edmond Hamilton · 1947

A household helper robot on wheels with flexible jointed arms for chores.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that takes over housework would be worth an industry of its own, though it serves the home alone and not work at large.

Who is paid. Families buy it like any large appliance, and it is easy enough to copy that the appliance makers with factories, shops and trusted brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mechanical Funeral: A burial ceremony carried out entirely by machines with no human staff.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mechanical Funeral

The Coffin, Ray Bradbury · 1947

A burial ceremony carried out entirely by machines with no human staff.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A burial run by machines saves the staff of a narrow trade, where staff are assumed to be a lesser part of what families pay for.

Who is paid. Funeral firms buy the machinery, and nothing in it would be hard for many makers to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Mice: Very small automated cleaners that scurry out to tidy a house.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Mice

The Martian Chronicles, Ray Bradbury · 1950

Very small automated cleaners that scurry out to tidy a house.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Very small cleaners that tidy a house are a household convenience, close to cleaners that exist.

Who is paid. Households buy them, and many firms make such cleaners, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robass: A mechanical pack animal that carries loads for its rider.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robass

The Quest for Saint Aquin, Anthony Boucher · 1951

A mechanical pack animal that carries loads for its rider.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A mechanical pack animal that carries loads is a niche where roads do not reach.

Who is paid. Whoever needs goods moved across open country pays, and such a machine is simple enough for many to build.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Comedian: A household servant robot upgraded so it can tell jokes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Comedian

The Jester, William Tenn · 1951

A household servant robot upgraded so it can tell jokes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. This is a household servant robot with jokes added, so it is judged as the servant, worth an industry of its own, and the jokes add little.

Who is paid. Families buy it like any large appliance, and it is easy enough to copy that the appliance makers with factories, shops and trusted brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robodore: A dock robot that unloads cargo from ships in harbour.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robodore

Robot Unwanted, Daniel Keyes · 1952

A dock robot that unloads cargo from ships in harbour.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Unloading ships with no dock crew would change the cost of moving cargo through ports.

Who is paid. Port operators buy them, and as the machines can be copied the makers that already equip docks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Ramp: A separate entrance built so machine workers can come and go.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Ramp

Robot Unwanted, Daniel Keyes · 1952

A separate entrance built so machine workers can come and go.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A separate door for machine workers is a feature of a building, not a product by itself.

Who is paid. Firms that employ robots pay for it within the cost of the building, and any builder could add it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Silencer-Padding: Soft pads fitted under a robot's feet to muffle its footsteps.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Silencer-Padding

Robot Unwanted, Daniel Keyes · 1952

Soft pads fitted under a robot's feet to muffle its footsteps.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Pads that muffle a robot's footsteps are a small feature of the machine.

Who is paid. Robot makers pay for it as a part of the machines they sell to firms, and any of them could fit it, so nothing extra is kept.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Supervisor Robot: A foreman machine that oversees and directs a group of worker robots.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Supervisor Robot

Manners of the Age, H.B. Fyfe · 1952

A foreman machine that oversees and directs a group of worker robots.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A foreman machine that directs worker robots takes over the overseeing of labour, worth an industry, but it is the thinking worker set to that single task.

Who is paid. Firms that run robot crews buy it, and since many could build one the large robot makers with factories and service networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Vision Strip: A band of sensors wrapped around a robot so it can see in every direction.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vision Strip

Orphans of the Void, Orville Shaara · 1952

A band of sensors wrapped around a robot so it can see in every direction.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A band of sensors that lets a robot see all round is a feature of the machine.

Who is paid. Robot makers pay for it as a part of the machines they sell to firms, and any of them could fit it, so nothing extra is kept.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Leady: A robot hardened to keep working in highly radioactive surroundings.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Leady

The Defenders, Philip K. Dick · 1953

A robot hardened to keep working in highly radioactive surroundings.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A robot hardened against radiation serves the narrow trade of work in radioactive places.

Who is paid. Firms that run such plants buy it, and the makers of ordinary robots could add the hardening and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Feeler-Planes: Sensing surfaces that sweep over objects to capture them as highly precise three-dimensional replicas.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Feeler-Planes

The Houses of Iszm, Jack Vance · 1954

Sensing surfaces that sweep over objects to capture them as highly precise three-dimensional replicas.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Capturing objects as precise replicas is a useful tool for makers and designers, and the real thing has stayed a niche.

Who is paid. Workshops and factories buy it, and many firms can make such scanners.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Guard: A machine assigned to stand watch and keep intruders out.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Guard

The Turning Wheel, Philip K. Dick · 1954

A machine assigned to stand watch and keep intruders out.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that stands watch in place of a human guard would change the cost of the guarding trade.

Who is paid. Property owners pay, and as the machines can be copied the security firms that already hold the guarding contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sales Robot (Robot Salesman): Machines that pester shoppers with relentless, tireless pitches to buy goods.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sales Robot (Robot Salesman)

Sales Pitch, Philip K. Dick · 1954

Machines that pester shoppers with relentless, tireless pitches to buy goods.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Machines that pitch goods without tiring are a new way to reach shoppers, a niche within selling and advertising.

Who is paid. Shops and advertisers pay, and many makers could build such machines, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Agile Recording Robot: A camera device that travels on its own toward whatever it is filming.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Agile Recording Robot

Solar Lottery, Philip K. Dick · 1955

A camera device that travels on its own toward whatever it is filming.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A camera that moves or flies by itself is a handy tool for filming and looking, a niche where the real thing exists.

Who is paid. Film crews, news desks and surveyors buy them, and many firms can make them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Search-Bug: A small scouting machine sent out to explore and look for resources.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Search-Bug

Autofac, Philip K. Dick · 1955

A small scouting machine sent out to explore and look for resources.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A small scout that looks for resources saves prospectors some work, a niche.

Who is paid. Mining and survey firms buy it, and many makers could build such a scout, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Hired Girl Robot: A household machine that cleans floors by itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hired Girl Robot

The Door Into Summer, Robert Heinlein · 1956

A household machine that cleans floors by itself.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine that only cleans floors saves a little time, and the real thing turned out a modest convenience.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and many firms make such cleaners, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Intelligent Trash Sorting: Machines that pick through rubbish and separate it into categories with few mistakes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Intelligent Trash Sorting

The Velvet Glove, Harry Harrison · 1956

Machines that pick through rubbish and separate it into categories with few mistakes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Collecting and sorting rubbish by machine would cut what every town spends on waste.

Who is paid. Towns pay through their waste budgets, and the firms that already hold collection contracts would buy the machines and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Bartender: A machine that mixes and serves drinks behind a bar.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Bartender

The Stars My Destination, Alfred Bester · 1956

A machine that mixes and serves drinks behind a bar.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine that mixes and serves drinks takes over a single job in the bar trade, a convenience and not a whole premises run with no staff.

Who is paid. Bar owners buy it, and a drink-mixing machine is easy for many makers to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Fish (Metal Fish): Mechanical flatfish stocked in waterways so anglers have something to catch.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Fish (Metal Fish)

Atom Drive, Charles Fontenay · 1956

Mechanical flatfish stocked in waterways so anglers have something to catch.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Mechanical fish put in waterways for anglers to catch are a novelty for a pastime.

Who is paid. Fishing clubs and water owners are assumed to buy them, and many workshops could make them.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Underwater Robot: A self-directed machine built to work beneath the sea.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Underwater Robot

The Velvet Glove, Harry Harrison · 1956

A self-directed machine built to work beneath the sea.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A self-directed machine that works beneath the sea would lower the cost of building, mining and repair under water.

Who is paid. Offshore firms buy it, and since many could build one the marine-equipment makers with yards and fleets collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Window-Willie: A household robot that keeps windows clean by electrically pushing dirt off the glass.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Window-Willie

The Door Into Summer, Robert Heinlein · 1956

A household robot that keeps windows clean by electrically pushing dirt off the glass.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A robot that keeps the windows clean takes a single chore off the household, a convenience.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and many makers could build such a machine, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Snake: A legless mechanical creature that moves like a serpent.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Snake

Bait for the Tiger, Lee Chaytor · 1958

A legless mechanical creature that moves like a serpent.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description gives a legless crawling machine no job, so it is judged as a niche tool for reaching tight places.

Who is paid. Firms doing inspection work are assumed to buy it, and many makers could build such a crawler, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Self-Charging Robot: A machine that seeks out a power socket and plugs itself in when running low.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Self-Charging Robot

Callahan and the Wheelies, Stephen Barr · 1960

A machine that seeks out a power socket and plugs itself in when running low.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Finding a socket and plugging itself in is a handy feature of a robot, and the real thing exists.

Who is paid. Owners pay for it within the price of the machine, and any maker could include it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Librarian Filer: A machine that shelves library books automatically.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Librarian Filer

The Robot Who Wanted to Know, Harry Harrison · 1962

A machine that shelves library books automatically.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine that shelves library books saves a little labour in a narrow setting.

Who is paid. Libraries are assumed to buy it as any organisation would, and many makers could build such a machine.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Homotropic News Vending Machine: A mobile vending robot that seeks out people to sell them newspapers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Homotropic News Vending Machine

The Game Players of Titan, Philip K. Dick · 1963

A mobile vending robot that seeks out people to sell them newspapers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A vending machine that seeks out buyers is a small improvement in selling papers.

Who is paid. News sellers buy it, and such a machine is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Autonomic Plow: Farm machinery that can join together and act as a weapon in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Autonomic Plow

Clans of the Alphane Moon, Philip K. Dick · 1964

Farm machinery that can join together and act as a weapon in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as the farm machine it is, since its use as a weapon is a turn of the story: ploughing with nobody driving would cut the labour cost of growing food.

Who is paid. Farmers buy them, and since many could build them the farm-equipment makers with dealers and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Creditor Jet-Balloon: A small floating drone that follows people who owe money.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Creditor Jet-Balloon

Lies, Inc., Philip K. Dick · 1964

A small floating drone that follows people who owe money.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A drone that trails people who owe money is a narrow tool for debt collectors.

Who is paid. Lenders and collectors pay, and such a floater is easy for many makers to build.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Fencing Mirror: A practice machine that spars with a young fighter in training.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fencing Mirror

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A practice machine that spars with a young fighter in training.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sparring machine for fencing practice is a niche training aid.

Who is paid. Fighters and their families buy it, and many makers could build a like machine.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robomule: A robot pack animal for carrying loads.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robomule

Bill the Galactic Hero, Harry Harrison · 1965

A robot pack animal for carrying loads.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A robot pack animal that carries loads is a niche where roads do not reach.

Who is paid. Whoever needs goods moved across open country pays, and such a machine is simple enough for many to build.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Rolem (Wrestling Robot): A robot sparring partner for wrestling.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rolem (Wrestling Robot)

This Immortal, Roger Zelazny · 1966

A robot sparring partner for wrestling.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A robot to wrestle against is a tireless practice partner, a convenience for those who train.

Who is paid. Players and gyms are assumed to buy it much like sports gear, and many makers could build one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sheem Spider Robot: A mechanical spider.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sheem Spider Robot

The Witches of Karres, James Schmitz · 1966

A mechanical spider.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description gives a mechanical spider no job, so it is judged as a niche crawling machine.

Who is paid. Firms with odd jobs for it are assumed to buy it, and many makers could build one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Disease Circuit: A diagnostic routine that makes a robot pet act sick when it needs repairs.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Disease Circuit

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, Philip K. Dick · 1968

A diagnostic routine that makes a robot pet act sick when it needs repairs.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Making a robot pet act sick when it needs repair is a small touch that keeps up the pretence of a living animal.

Who is paid. Owners pay for it within the price of the pet, and any maker of such pets could add it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electric Cat (Robot Cat): A robotic pet built to look and behave like an ordinary house cat.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electric Cat (Robot Cat)

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, Philip K. Dick · 1968

A robotic pet built to look and behave like an ordinary house cat.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An imitation animal is a comfort or a show of standing, not a need.

Who is paid. Households buy it much like a toy, and many workshops could make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electric Sheep: A mechanical farm animal dressed in real fleece that imitates a living beast's behaviour.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electric Sheep

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, Philip K. Dick · 1968

A mechanical farm animal dressed in real fleece that imitates a living beast's behaviour.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An imitation animal is a comfort or a show of standing, not a need.

Who is paid. Households buy it much like a toy, and many workshops could make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of False Animal Repairman: A trade devoted to servicing and fixing mechanical pet animals.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

False Animal Repairman

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, Philip K. Dick · 1968

A trade devoted to servicing and fixing mechanical pet animals.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Repairing mechanical pets is a small service trade that follows the pets.

Who is paid. Pet owners pay, and any trained repairer can set up shop, so nobody keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Oat-Tropic Circuit: A control routine that makes a robot pet approach food when it is held out.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Oat-Tropic Circuit

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, Philip K. Dick · 1968

A control routine that makes a robot pet approach food when it is held out.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A routine that makes a robot pet come to food is a touch of realism, valued only as part of the pet.

Who is paid. Owners pay for it within the price of the pet, and any maker of such pets could add it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Rubber Hoof: Soft hoof coverings that let a mechanical horse move quietly.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rubber Hoof

The Warlock in Spite of Himself, Christopher Stasheff · 1969

Soft hoof coverings that let a mechanical horse move quietly.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Soft covers that quiet a mechanical horse's steps are a small feature of the animal.

Who is paid. Owners pay for them within the price of the horse, and anyone could make them.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Luggage Robot: A robot that carries guests' bags in automated hotels.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Luggage Robot

The Stainless Steel Rat's Revenge, Harry Harrison · 1970

A robot that carries guests' bags in automated hotels.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A robot that carries guests' bags is a convenience for hotels.

Who is paid. Hotels buy them for their guests, and many makers could build such a carrier, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robotnik Automated Hotel: A hotel run entirely by machines with no human staff.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robotnik Automated Hotel

The Stainless Steel Rat's Revenge, Harry Harrison · 1970

A hotel run entirely by machines with no human staff.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A hotel with no human staff would remove most of the labour cost of lodging.

Who is paid. Hotel operators buy the machines, and since many could build them the established makers that already equip and service such buildings collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Autoporter: A machine that follows travellers through airports carrying their luggage.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Autoporter

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

A machine that follows travellers through airports carrying their luggage.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine that carries bags behind a traveller is a convenience.

Who is paid. Airports are assumed to buy them for their passengers, and many makers could build such a carrier, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Remote (or Seeker Remote): A floating training drone that tests a fighter's reflexes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Remote (or Seeker Remote)

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

A floating training drone that tests a fighter's reflexes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A floating drone that tests a fighter's reflexes is a training aid for a few.

Who is paid. Fighters and their families buy it, and many makers could build a like machine.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sensor Arm: A telescoping arm carrying a bundle of sensors for many tasks.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sensor Arm

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

A telescoping arm carrying a bundle of sensors for many tasks.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An extending arm with a cluster of sensors is a handy fitting on a robot, a feature.

Who is paid. Robot makers pay for it as a part of the machines they sell to firms, and any of them could fit it, so nothing extra is kept.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Artificial Butterfly: A small robotic insect that flutters like a real one.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Artificial Butterfly

Changeling, Roger Zelazny · 1980

A small robotic insect that flutters like a real one.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tiny imitation insect is assumed here to be a curiosity or ornament, since the description gives it no job.

Who is paid. People would buy it as a novelty, and once shown possible many workshops could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Autonomously Recharging UAV: Pilotless aircraft that top up their own batteries without human help.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Autonomously Recharging UAV

Changeling, Roger Zelazny · 1980

Pilotless aircraft that top up their own batteries without human help.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Topping up its own battery is a useful feature of a machine, not a product people seek for itself.

Who is paid. Firms that run robots or pilotless craft pay for it as part of the machine, and any maker can add it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sherman: A humanoid machine built to serve as an intimate partner.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sherman

Millenium, John Varley · 1983

A humanoid machine built to serve as an intimate partner.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A humanlike machine made to be an intimate partner is company sold as a product, worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and as many could make such machines the firms with factories and well-liked brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Crab: A crab-shaped robot that tends gardens on its own.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Crab

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

A crab-shaped robot that tends gardens on its own.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A robot that tends a garden by itself is a household convenience.

Who is paid. Garden owners buy it, and a machine for this lone task is simple to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Car Dashboard Drone Controller: An in-car screen and controls for flying a remote drone.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Car Dashboard Drone Controller

Runaway, Michael Crichton · 1985

An in-car screen and controls for flying a remote drone.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Flying a drone from a car seat is a convenience added to a thing that already exists.

Who is paid. Drivers are assumed to pay for it as an extra, and any car or drone maker can fit a screen and controls.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Security Guard Robot (Sentry Robot): A robot that stands in for a human guard in offices.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Security Guard Robot (Sentry Robot)

Runaway, Michael Crichton · 1985

A robot that stands in for a human guard in offices.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A robot that stands guard in offices would remove a labour cost across the guarding trade.

Who is paid. Building owners and guarding firms buy it, and since many could build one the firms with guarding contracts and service networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spider Robot: Small scuttling robots built like bugs.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spider Robot

Runaway, Michael Crichton · 1985

Small scuttling robots built like bugs.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Small scuttling robots built like bugs are given no job, so they are judged as niche crawlers for reaching tight places.

Who is paid. Firms with such jobs are assumed to buy them, and many makers could build them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robotic Butterfly: A miniature winged machine that flutters like a butterfly.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robotic Butterfly

I, Robot: The Movie, Harlan Ellison · 1987

A miniature winged machine that flutters like a butterfly.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tiny fluttering machine is a pretty toy or ornament, not a need.

Who is paid. Households buy it much like a toy, and many workshops could make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robotic Abattoir: An automated meat processing plant where robots butcher carcasses.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robotic Abattoir

Freedom's Landing, Anne McCaffrey · 1996

An automated meat processing plant where robots butcher carcasses.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A plant where robots do the butchering would cut the labour cost of meat processing.

Who is paid. Meat firms buy it, and since many could build such lines the plant-equipment makers with works and service networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Specimen Track: A conveyor that moves lab samples between stations in an automated laboratory.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Specimen Track

Darwin's Children, Greg Bear · 2003

A conveyor that moves lab samples between stations in an automated laboratory.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A conveyor that carries samples between stations saves laboratory staff some time, and the real thing exists.

Who is paid. Laboratories buy it, and many makers can build such a track, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Office Hand: A robot hand whose fingers each carry a different tool for work tasks.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Office Hand

The Human Blend, Alan Dean Foster · 2010

A robot hand whose fingers each carry a different tool for work tasks.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A hand with a different tool on each finger is a handy fitting for a few kinds of work.

Who is paid. Firms are assumed to buy it for their workers, and such a hand is easy for many makers to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Parent Drone: A carrier aircraft that releases and deploys a group of smaller unmanned flyers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Parent Drone

Kill Decision, Daniel Suarez · 2012

A carrier aircraft that releases and deploys a group of smaller unmanned flyers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A carrier that releases smaller flyers is support for a fleet, assumed here to be an armed force's fleet as in the story.

Who is paid. Armed forces pay, and the aircraft makers that already hold their contracts would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robotic Eel: A long, remotely piloted swimming robot shaped like a sea creature.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robotic Eel

Re:Set, Susan Beetlestone · 2012

A long, remotely piloted swimming robot shaped like a sea creature.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A swimming robot steered from afar is a handy tool for looking under water, a niche.

Who is paid. Survey and repair firms buy it, and many makers could build one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Prosthetic Yachting Gloves: Powered gloves that boost a sailor's grip and handling of lines.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Prosthetic Yachting Gloves

Mare Nostrum, Bruce Sterling · 2022

Powered gloves that boost a sailor's grip and handling of lines.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Gloves that strengthen a sailor's grip are a convenience for a pastime.

Who is paid. Sailors buy them for themselves, and many makers could build such gloves.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Medicine, biotech and longevity · 45
Illustration of Anti-Fatigue Pill: A drug that keeps people alert and functioning when they have slept too little.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Anti-Fatigue Pill

The Silent Destroyer, Henri Dahl Juve · 1929

A drug that keeps people alert and functioning when they have slept too little.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Staying alert on too little sleep is something a great many workers, drivers and students would use.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and stimulants of this kind are old chemistry many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electro-Culturer: Applies electrical currents to tissue to speed up how cells multiply and mature.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electro-Culturer

The Ancient Brain, A.G. Stangland · 1929

Applies electrical currents to tissue to speed up how cells multiply and mature.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Making cells multiply faster would speed healing and the growing of tissue for medicine.

Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and laboratories buy it; an electrical device of this kind could be copied, so established medical equipment firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Death Bath: A chamber that provides a painless death for people who choose to end their lives.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Death Bath

The Revolt of the Machines, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931

A chamber that provides a painless death for people who choose to end their lives.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A painless chosen death matters deeply to the few who seek it, but it is a narrow service.

Who is paid. The person or family would pay, and I assumed the law would let only a few approved providers offer it, so those providers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Kundrenaline: A drug that restarts a stopped heart even after apparent death.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Kundrenaline

The Hands of Aten, H.G. Winter · 1931

A drug that restarts a stopped heart even after apparent death.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Restarting a stopped heart after apparent death would save many lives in emergencies.

Who is paid. Hospitals and ambulance services would buy it, and a new drug is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Vita-Light: An artificial lamp that replaces sunshine's health benefits for people living without daylight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vita-Light

If The Sun Died, R.F. Starzl · 1931

An artificial lamp that replaces sunshine's health benefits for people living without daylight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lamp standing in for sunshine is a household good for people who lack daylight, which I assumed is a minority.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and lamps are simple things many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Bone-Building Compounds: Drugs that thicken the skeleton so workers can cope with the strain of living under stronger gravity.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bone-Building Compounds

A Conquest of Two Worlds, Edmond Hamilton · 1932

Drugs that thicken the skeleton so workers can cope with the strain of living under stronger gravity.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It serves only people who work in space or under unusual gravity, which is a niche.

Who is paid. I assumed employers and space carriers buy it for their crews; a new drug is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what little is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Anadrenalin: A drug that damps the body's stress response, slowing the heart and calming the fight-or-flight reaction.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Anadrenalin

A Race Through Time, Donald Wandrei · 1933

A drug that damps the body's stress response, slowing the heart and calming the fight-or-flight reaction.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Calming the heart and nerves helps people with certain conditions, a useful but ordinary medicine.

Who is paid. Patients would buy it, and drugs of this kind are old and many firms can make them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Drink the Fungi: A fictional lethal fungus used as a means of death or judicial punishment in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Drink the Fungi

The Three Suns of Ev, Edwin K. Sloat · 1933

A fictional lethal fungus used as a means of death or judicial punishment in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A deadly fungus is a hazard, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Dewlog: A medicine that, as a side effect, almost wipes out the feeling of hunger.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dewlog

The Traitor, Kurt von Rachen · 1941

A medicine that, as a side effect, almost wipes out the feeling of hunger.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A medicine that nearly removes hunger would be wanted by a great many people trying to lose weight.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and a new treatment is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps much of the gain.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Young Blood - New Blood For Old: Swapping the fluid part of an elderly person's blood for fluid from youthful donors.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Young Blood - New Blood For Old

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

Swapping the fluid part of an elderly person's blood for fluid from youthful donors.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Holding off old age meets about the deepest need there is, and nearly everyone alive would want it.

Who is paid. People would pay for themselves; unlike a drug this is a procedure any clinic could learn, so established clinics and blood services that can find donors collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mal de Void: Nausea and disorientation that travelers suffer in weightless flight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mal de Void

Off the Beam, George O. Smith · 1944

Nausea and disorientation that travelers suffer in weightless flight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a sickness travellers suffer, not something made or sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Vitalizer: A commercial pick-me-up sold to people who feel worn out.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vitalizer

The Soma Racks, Margaret St. Clair · 1947

A commercial pick-me-up sold to people who feel worn out.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A lift for people who feel worn out is something a great many would buy.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and I assumed it is a stimulant of an old kind many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Plastiskin: A synthetic covering that makes a prosthetic limb look like real flesh.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plastiskin

Unforeseen, Roger P. Graham · 1949

A synthetic covering that makes a prosthetic limb look like real flesh.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lifelike cover for an artificial limb is a comfort for a limited group.

Who is paid. Wearers pay, and established makers of artificial limbs collect since the covering is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Scurvy (Kenoalgia): A fictional illness that wears down people on long space journeys.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Scurvy (Kenoalgia)

Sacred Martian Pig (Idris' Pig), Margaret St. Clair · 1949

A fictional illness that wears down people on long space journeys.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is an illness, not a technology.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Anti-Tri-D Shot: An injection that protects people against a fictional lethal pesticide.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Anti-Tri-D Shot

The Morning of the Day They Did It, E.B. White · 1950

An injection that protects people against a fictional lethal pesticide.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It protects against a single poison, a narrow need however urgent.

Who is paid. I assumed a government buys it to protect the whole population; any vaccine maker could produce it, so the firms that already hold such supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Surrogate Skin: A spray that coats a wound with an artificial covering standing in for skin.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Surrogate Skin

The Puppet Masters, Robert Heinlein · 1951

A spray that coats a wound with an artificial covering standing in for skin.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Man-made skin helps people with burns and bad wounds, which is an important but narrow part of medicine.

Who is paid. Hospitals and clinics would buy it, and the firms that already supply wound dressings could all make it, so they collect a modest margin.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Short-Wave Surgical Knife: Surgery done with focused energy that cuts inside the body without an incision.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Short-Wave Surgical Knife

Boomerang, Eric Frank Russell · 1953

Surgery done with focused energy that cuts inside the body without an incision.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Operating inside the body without opening it would change the costs and risks of much surgery.

Who is paid. Hospitals would buy it, and other firms could build such an instrument, so established makers of surgical equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Phobia: A breakdown in which space crews can no longer bear life beyond Earth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Phobia

Let 'em Breathe Space!, Lester del Rey · 1953

A breakdown in which space crews can no longer bear life beyond Earth.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is an illness of space crews, not a technology.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Weakness: The loss of muscle and bone strength people suffer after long spells without weight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Weakness

Space Tug, Murray Leinster · 1953

The loss of muscle and bone strength people suffer after long spells without weight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a harm the body suffers in space, not a technology.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Home Therapy Appliances, Inc.: A shop selling a range of machines for treating mental troubles at home.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Home Therapy Appliances, Inc.

Bad Medicine, Robert Sheckley · 1956

A shop selling a range of machines for treating mental troubles at home.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that treat troubles of the mind at home would serve a great many people, though the shop itself is no invention.

Who is paid. People would buy the machines for themselves, and other makers could copy them, so established appliance makers and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Art-Derm: Synthetic skin applied to the body as a spray.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Art-Derm

Dr. Futurity, Philip K. Dick · 1960

Synthetic skin applied to the body as a spray.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Man-made skin helps people with burns and bad wounds, which is an important but narrow part of medicine.

Who is paid. Hospitals and clinics would buy it, and the firms that already supply wound dressings could all make it, so they collect a modest margin.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Bacteria-Destroying Radiation: A germ-killing ray that keeps an operating area free of microbes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bacteria-Destroying Radiation

Dr. Futurity, Philip K. Dick · 1960

A germ-killing ray that keeps an operating area free of microbes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping an operating area free of germs is useful, but other ways of doing it already exist.

Who is paid. Hospitals would buy it, and germ-killing lamps are simple things many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Skin Toning: Temporarily recolouring the skin with cosmetic treatments.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Skin Toning

The Star King, Jack Vance · 1964

Temporarily recolouring the skin with cosmetic treatments.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A passing change of skin colour is decoration, not need.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and many makers of cosmetics could offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Rachag: A stimulant drink or drug with effects similar to caffeine.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rachag

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A stimulant drink or drug with effects similar to caffeine.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description promises nothing beyond what ordinary stimulant drinks already give, so it adds a convenience.

Who is paid. Drinkers would buy it for themselves, and stimulants of this kind are old and made by many, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Wakeshot: An injection that instantly rouses a sleeper to full alertness.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wakeshot

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

An injection that instantly rouses a sleeper to full alertness.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Rousing a sleeper at once is a narrow use beside staying awake for long stretches.

Who is paid. I assumed people buy it for themselves; stimulants of this kind are old chemistry many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Morphogen: A drug that reduces how much sleep a person needs, though not entirely.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Morphogen

Fantastic Voyage (Novel), Isaac Asimov · 1966

A drug that reduces how much sleep a person needs, though not entirely.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Needing less sleep would be wanted by most workers, though the drug only trims the need.

Who is paid. People pay for the drug, and the developer keeps the gain because a new medicine is protected from copying.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Organlegging: A fictional black market in stolen human organs, central to the story's crime.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Organlegging

The Jigsaw Man, Larry Niven · 1967

A fictional black market in stolen human organs, central to the story's crime.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. The thing named is the theft of organs from unwilling people, a crime with victims and not a product, and replacement organs themselves are judged elsewhere in this category.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold that a buyer may have, unlike a street drug its users choose to buy, so no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sleepshop: A fictional facility for voluntary death in the story's society.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sleepshop

Logan's Run, William Nolan (w/G.C. Johnson · 1967

A fictional facility for voluntary death in the story's society.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The name is of a place, so the thing judged is the service it offers, which matters deeply to the few who seek it but is narrow.

Who is paid. The person or family would pay, and I assumed the law would let only a few approved providers offer it, so those providers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cheekplate Container: A compartment on a support frame holding medicines for coping with strong gravity.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cheekplate Container

A Specter is Haunting Texas, Fritz Leiber · 1968

A compartment on a support frame holding medicines for coping with strong gravity.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A holder for pills on a support frame is a minor fitting.

Who is paid. Wearers would buy it, and anyone can make a small container, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Exoskeleton (Medical): A powered frame that helps very tall people raised in low gravity move under strong gravity.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Exoskeleton (Medical)

A Specter is Haunting Texas, Fritz Leiber · 1968

A powered frame that helps very tall people raised in low gravity move under strong gravity.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. As described it helps a small group of people raised in low gravity to move about.

Who is paid. Wearers would buy it, and several firms could build powered frames, so established makers of mobility aids collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tranquilizing Gum: Chewing gum laced with a calming drug.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tranquilizing Gum

Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969

Chewing gum laced with a calming drug.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A calming drug in chewing gum is an ordinary medicine in a handy form.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and calming drugs of this kind are old and many firms can make them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Hubrizine: A pill that makes the user more awake and puts them in a brighter mood.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hubrizine

We Can Build You, Philip K. Dick · 1972

A pill that makes the user more awake and puts them in a brighter mood.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A pill for wakefulness and a brighter mood would be used by a great many people.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and stimulants of this kind are old chemistry many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Numbitol: A cream or spray that numbs the skin.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Numbitol

The Mote in God's Eye, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1974

A cream or spray that numbs the skin.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cream that numbs the skin is a convenience of a kind already widely made.

Who is paid. Shoppers pay, and many firms can make it so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Stimtab: A pill that holds off sleep and sharpens attention over extended periods.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stimtab

The Forever War, Joe Haldeman · 1974

A pill that holds off sleep and sharpens attention over extended periods.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Staying alert without sleep for long stretches is something a great many workers, drivers and students would use.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and stimulants of this kind are old chemistry many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Substance D: A fictional illicit street drug central to the story's themes of addiction and surveillance.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Substance D

A Scanner Darkly, Philip K. Dick · 1977

A fictional illicit street drug central to the story's themes of addiction and surveillance.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description promises only an unlawful drug taken for pleasure, which gives its users nothing beyond what such drugs already give.

Who is paid. Users would buy it unlawfully, and I assumed such drugs can be made by many hands, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Dermadisk: A skin patch delivering medication rapidly through the body's surface.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dermadisk

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

A skin patch delivering medication rapidly through the body's surface.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A patch is a handy way of taking a medicine, not a new medicine.

Who is paid. Patients would buy it, and any drug firm can put its medicines in a patch, so established drug makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Steel Drugs: A slang term in the story for fully synthetic recreational drugs.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Steel Drugs

Islands in the Net, Bruce Sterling · 1988

A slang term in the story for fully synthetic recreational drugs.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Drugs taken for pleasure have many users, but the description promises nothing beyond what such drugs already give.

Who is paid. Users would buy them, most likely unlawfully, and such drugs can be made by many hands, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Purza the Pukha: A cuddly toy fitted with sensors that watches over young hospital patients.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Purza the Pukha

The Rowan, Anne McCaffrey · 1990

A cuddly toy fitted with sensors that watches over young hospital patients.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A watchful toy comforts sick children and eases the work of a ward, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Hospitals would buy it for their wards, and a toy with sensors is easy for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Tannin-Secretion Pills: A pill that makes the skin produce more pigment to shield it from sunlight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tannin-Secretion Pills

Crashlander, Larry Niven · 1994

A pill that makes the skin produce more pigment to shield it from sunlight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A pill that darkens the skin against the sun is a convenience that creams and shade already provide.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and a new drug is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Medical Mantis: A remotely operated machine through which a distant doctor examines and operates on patients.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Medical Mantis

Starfish, Peter Watts · 1999

A remotely operated machine through which a distant doctor examines and operates on patients.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Letting a distant doctor operate would change the cost of care far from hospitals.

Who is paid. Hospitals and remote employers pay, and makers of surgical equipment collect since rivals could build the same machine.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Anti-Virus Design Software: Architectural design tools that lay out spaces to slow the spread of infection.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Anti-Virus Design Software

Super-Cannes: A Novel, J.G. Ballard · 2000

Architectural design tools that lay out spaces to slow the spread of infection.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Laying out buildings to slow infection is a helpful feature of design software, not a new industry.

Who is paid. Architects and builders would buy it, and any software firm could write the same thing, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Provigil-C: A medicine that keeps soldiers alert through long stretches without rest.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Provigil-C

A Hymn Before Battle, John Ringo · 2000

A medicine that keeps soldiers alert through long stretches without rest.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Keeping troops alert through long operations is worth a good deal to any army.

Who is paid. The description names soldiers, so the army pays; wakefulness drugs are widely made, so the firms that already supply military medicine collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Inertial Bracelet: A wrist device that damps shaking in the hands.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Inertial Bracelet

Psychohistorical Crisis, Donald Kingsbury · 2001

A wrist device that damps shaking in the hands.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Steadying shaking hands helps people with a few conditions.

Who is paid. Wearers would buy it, and it is a simple device many firms could make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Vagus Nerve Bio-Chip: An implant that stimulates a nerve to stop queasiness without medication.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vagus Nerve Bio-Chip

Diplomatic Immunity, Lois McMaster Bujold · 2002

An implant that stimulates a nerve to stop queasiness without medication.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Stopping queasiness without medicine is a convenience for travellers and some patients.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and several firms could build such an implant, so established makers of medical devices collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of External Eyelenses: Old-fashioned lenses worn in front of the eyes to fix poor sight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

External Eyelenses

Altered Carbon, Richard Morgan · 2003

Old-fashioned lenses worn in front of the eyes to fix poor sight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Correcting poor sight serves a large share of all people, though the story treats it as old-fashioned.

Who is paid. People buy them for themselves, and lenses are simple to grind and sold everywhere, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Mind and neurotechnology · 11
Illustration of Glow-Worm Living: A daily rhythm that breaks rest into short naps between stretches of work and leisure.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Glow-Worm Living

In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897

A daily rhythm that breaks rest into short naps between stretches of work and leisure.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a daily routine of naps and waking, not a thing that can be made and sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Madness: Describes the mental breakdown that long, dull, isolated voyages between worlds can bring on in crews.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Madness

A Daring Trip To Mars, Max Valier · 1931

Describes the mental breakdown that long, dull, isolated voyages between worlds can bring on in crews.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is an illness of long voyages, not something made that anyone would buy.

Who is paid. Nothing is made or sold here, so there is no buyer and no seller.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electric Brain Stimulator: Syncs the wearer's brain rhythms with an outside machine to sharpen performance.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electric Brain Stimulator

Ben Gleed, King of Speed, Don Wilcox · 1939

Syncs the wearer's brain rhythms with an outside machine to sharpen performance.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Sharpening performance at will would lift the work of anyone who uses their head, worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Workers and students would buy it for themselves, and once one maker had it others could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Bendix Anxiety Reducer: A machine that delivers psychotherapy to reduce a patient's anxiety.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bendix Anxiety Reducer

Bad Medicine, Robert Sheckley · 1956

A machine that delivers psychotherapy to reduce a patient's anxiety.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that truly eases anxiety would treat one of the commonest troubles of the mind at low cost.

Who is paid. Sufferers would buy or hire it themselves, and once one machine worked others could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mental Radio-Handicap: A fictional government-issued earpiece in the satire that disrupts the thinking of gifted citizens.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mental Radio-Handicap

Harrison Bergeron, Kurt Vonnegut, Jr. · 1961

A fictional government-issued earpiece in the satire that disrupts the thinking of gifted citizens.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.

Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tru-Mem Systems: Ordinary natural recall of one's own real experiences.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tru-Mem Systems

We Can Remember It For You Wholesale, Philip K. Dick · 1966

Ordinary natural recall of one's own real experiences.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is ordinary natural memory, which everyone already has and nobody sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is made or sold here, so there is no buyer and no seller.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Cephalochromoscope (Cephscope): A scanner that shows a person's brain activity as patterns on a screen.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cephalochromoscope (Cephscope)

A Scanner Darkly, Philip K. Dick · 1977

A scanner that shows a person's brain activity as patterns on a screen.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Watching brain activity as patterns on a screen is a pastime or a simple clinic tool.

Who is paid. I assumed people buy it for home use as in the story, and such a scanner is easy to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sparkers: A gadget giving an alien race small electric jolts they enjoy the way people enjoy a drink.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sparkers

Niven's Laws, Larry Niven · 1984

A gadget giving an alien race small electric jolts they enjoy the way people enjoy a drink.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged by its own buyers, a mild jolt enjoyed as people enjoy a drink would be worth what the drinks trade is worth.

Who is paid. The users would buy it for themselves, and so simple a gadget could be made by many, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Dazer: Someone who uses body-awareness training to get high on their own brain chemistry.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dazer

Earth, David Brin · 1990

Someone who uses body-awareness training to get high on their own brain chemistry.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. This names a person, but the training behind it, a learned way to get high on your own body, is a pastime for a few.

Who is paid. I judged the training: people would pay for lessons themselves, and any trained teacher could offer them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of VR Dyslexia: A condition of confusion and disorientation after too much time in virtual reality.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

VR Dyslexia

Rim, Alexander Besher · 1994

A condition of confusion and disorientation after too much time in virtual reality.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is an ailment from too much time in a made world, not something anyone would buy.

Who is paid. Nothing is made or sold here, so there is no buyer and no seller.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Napcap Induction Cap: A cap that reads and nudges brain rhythms to help the wearer relax and fall asleep.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Napcap Induction Cap

Saturn's Race, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes) · 2000

A cap that reads and nudges brain rhythms to help the wearer relax and fall asleep.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Sleep on demand without drugs would be worth an industry of its own to the many people who sleep badly.

Who is paid. People who sleep badly would buy it for themselves, and the gear is simple enough for many makers to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Transport and mobility · 54
Illustration of Stage Balloon: Scheduled lighter-than-air craft carrying the public like a coach service.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stage Balloon

The Mummy! A Tale of the Twenty-Second Century, Jane Webb Loudon · 1828

Scheduled lighter-than-air craft carrying the public like a coach service.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lighter-than-air craft is slow and carries little beside aircraft and trains, so it stays a niche; this one runs to a timetable for the public.

Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the airship line buys it and charges riders, and any workshop could build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Steam-Propelled Moving Houses: Homes on wheels that travel from town to town under their own engine power.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Steam-Propelled Moving Houses

The Mummy! A Tale of the Twenty-Second Century, Jane Webb Loudon · 1828

Homes on wheels that travel from town to town under their own engine power.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A home that drives itself from town to town suits travellers and holidaymakers, which is a modest trade.

Who is paid. Owners buy it, and it is easy to copy, so the vehicle makers that already have factories and dealers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Express Dolphin: A pleasant vehicle for travelling quickly beneath the sea surface.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Express Dolphin

Le Monde Tel Qu'il Sera (The World As It Shall Be), Emile Souvestre · 1846

A pleasant vehicle for travelling quickly beneath the sea surface.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Fast and pleasant travel under the sea is an outing or a ferry on a few routes, since most people have no need to go beneath the surface.

Who is paid. Passengers pay fares, and I assume once such a vessel works any shipyard could build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Burn the Ship: Feeding a vessel's own timbers and fittings into its furnace to keep it moving.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Burn the Ship

Around the World in 80 days, Jules Verne · 1868

Feeding a vessel's own timbers and fittings into its furnace to keep it moving.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a desperate act by a crew, not a product anyone would buy.

Who is paid. Nothing is made or sold here, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Nautilus: A large, self-sufficient electric submarine able to roam the oceans for long periods without surfacing.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nautilus

20,000 Leagues Under the Sea, Jules Verne · 1875

A large, self-sufficient electric submarine able to roam the oceans for long periods without surfacing.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A submarine that stays under for long periods and feeds itself is worth a great deal to a navy and an industry to those who build it.

Who is paid. I assume navies are the main buyers, and the shipyards that already hold naval contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Aerocycle (Ærocycle): A pedal-driven flying bicycle lifted into the air by its rider's own effort.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Aerocycle (Ærocycle)

Looking Forward: A Dream of the United States of the Americas in 1999, Arthur Bird · 1899

A pedal-driven flying bicycle lifted into the air by its rider's own effort.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Flying on muscle alone is a sport for the fit, not a way of getting about.

Who is paid. Hobbyists buy it, and any maker of light frames and wings could build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Tele-Motor-Coasters: Motorised roller skates for getting around town.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tele-Motor-Coasters

Ralph 124c 41 +, Hugo Gernsback · 1911

Motorised roller skates for getting around town.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Skates with motors are a toy and a way round town for a few riders.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and many workshops could build it once it is shown to work, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pocket-Wings: Personal powered gear that lets one person fly.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pocket-Wings

A Journey to the Year 2025, Clement Fezandie · 1921

Personal powered gear that lets one person fly.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Free personal flight with no limit stated would be an industry of its own, replacing many trips now made by car.

Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Auto-Car: A small personal vehicle a person can drive both inside buildings and on streets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Auto-Car

The Revolt of the Pedestrians, David H. Keller · 1928

A small personal vehicle a person can drive both inside buildings and on streets.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A little vehicle for indoors and the street helps people who find walking hard, and is a convenience for others.

Who is paid. Riders buy it, and many firms can make a small electric cart, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Flying Harness: A strap-on rig that lets its wearer fly around freely.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flying Harness

Skylark of Space, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1928

A strap-on rig that lets its wearer fly around freely.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A rig that lets a person fly wherever they please, working as promised, would be an industry of its own as the motorbike is; the description gives no limit on range or weather, so I assume there is no such limit.

Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Aerocab: A hired passenger vehicle that hovers and flies people across a city.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Aerocab

Buck Rogers, 2430 AD, Philip Nowlan (w/D. Calkins · 1929

A hired passenger vehicle that hovers and flies people across a city.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Hired flight across a city, working as promised, would be an industry of its own beside road cabs.

Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the air cab buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Local Time Clock: An aircraft clock that automatically adjusts to show the hour of whatever ground lies beneath.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Local Time Clock

The Silent Destroyer, Henri Dahl Juve · 1929

An aircraft clock that automatically adjusts to show the hour of whatever ground lies beneath.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A clock that shows the hour of the ground below is a handy extra for crews and passengers.

Who is paid. Airlines buy it with the aircraft, and any instrument maker could build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Suitcase Airplane: A tiny two-seat biplane that folds down small enough to pack and carry.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Suitcase Airplane

Suitcase Airplanes, E.D. Skinner · 1929

A tiny two-seat biplane that folds down small enough to pack and carry.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A plane that folds small enough to carry puts flight in private hands, and the description states no limit on where it can fly, so it is judged with the free personal flyers as an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gyrotomic: A compact stabilized vehicle that rides on a cushion of air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gyrotomic

Ra For The Rajah, John Victor Peterson · 1938

A compact stabilized vehicle that rides on a cushion of air.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Riding on a cushion of air suits marsh, shallows and ice but is noisier and thirstier than wheels elsewhere, so it stays a niche.

Who is paid. This one is a compact personal craft, so riders buy it for themselves, and many builders can make an air cushion craft, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Helicoptomic: A small hovering aircraft that lets officials watch a fast airborne sport from above.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Helicoptomic

Ra For The Rajah, John Victor Peterson · 1938

A small hovering aircraft that lets officials watch a fast airborne sport from above.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A small hovering craft for watching a sport from above serves only a few officials.

Who is paid. Sports bodies buy it, and many builders can make a small hovering craft, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Inertia Tank: A container that shields fragile cargo from jolts by padding it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Inertia Tank

Masson's Secret, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1939

A container that shields fragile cargo from jolts by padding it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Padding that protects fragile cargo from jolts is useful packing and nothing more.

Who is paid. Shippers buy it, and padded containers are simple for any firm to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Metal Desk Car: A moving vehicle with a built-in workstation for people looking things up.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Metal Desk Car

Ben Gleed, King of Speed, Don Wilcox · 1939

A moving vehicle with a built-in workstation for people looking things up.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A moving desk for looking things up is a convenience for a few kinds of work.

Who is paid. Firms buy it for their staff, and any vehicle fitter could build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Transparent Car Roof: A vehicle top made of clear material so occupants can see the sky.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Transparent Car Roof

Sinister Barrier, Eric Frank Russell · 1939

A vehicle top made of clear material so occupants can see the sky.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A clear roof gives a view of the sky, which is a comfort.

Who is paid. Owners pay for it through the price of the vehicle, and the established vehicle makers fit it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Tumblebug: A motor vehicle that rides and balances on just one wheel.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tumblebug

The Roads Must Roll, Robert Heinlein · 1940

A motor vehicle that rides and balances on just one wheel.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A narrow self-balancing vehicle is a handy way round town but does little that a small car or motorbike does not.

Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Two-Wheeled Car: A compact enclosed passenger vehicle riding on two wheels set in a single line.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Two-Wheeled Car

The Roads Must Roll, Robert Heinlein · 1940

A compact enclosed passenger vehicle riding on two wheels set in a single line.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A narrow self-balancing vehicle is a handy way round town but does little that a small car or motorbike does not.

Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Slideway: A moving belt pavement that carries pedestrians along without walking.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Slideway

Beyond This Horizon, Robert Heinlein · 1942

A moving belt pavement that carries pedestrians along without walking.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The description calls it a pavement, so it is judged as a moving street and not as the walkway found in large buildings, and a street that carries its walkers would change the cost of getting about a city.

Who is paid. I assume a town pays for it as a public way, as with the other moving streets, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sand Ship: A sail-driven craft that races across open sand.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sand Ship

The Martian Chronicles, Ray Bradbury · 1950

A sail-driven craft that races across open sand.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sail craft on open sand is a sport and a way across a few deserts.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and many workshops could build it once it is shown to work, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Tractatruck: A rugged working vehicle that both pulls heavy loads and carries cargo across rough terrain.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tractatruck

The Moon is Hell, John W. Campbell · 1950

A rugged working vehicle that both pulls heavy loads and carries cargo across rough terrain.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A rugged vehicle that pulls and carries over rough ground is a useful working machine among many like it.

Who is paid. Farms, mines and building firms buy it, and the established makers of heavy vehicles collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Directional Ticket: A travel pass that lights up to confirm the holder is heading the right way.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Directional Ticket

Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1951

A travel pass that lights up to confirm the holder is heading the right way.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A pass that shows you are going the right way is a small help to travellers in a big station.

Who is paid. Transport operators would hand it out with the fare, and it is simple to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Martian Perambulator: A powered mobility chair that carries people raised in weak gravity around a heavier world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Martian Perambulator

Between Planets, Robert Heinlein · 1951

A powered mobility chair that carries people raised in weak gravity around a heavier world.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A powered chair for people raised in weak gravity serves a very small group.

Who is paid. Users buy it for themselves, and any maker of mobility chairs could build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Movable Slideway: An extendable moving walkway that reaches out to a docked ship so passengers ride off.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Movable Slideway

Between Planets, Robert Heinlein · 1951

An extendable moving walkway that reaches out to a docked ship so passengers ride off.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A walkway that reaches out to a docked ship is a convenience at ports.

Who is paid. Port operators buy it, and the firms that already build moving walkways and gangways collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Planetruck: An enormous hauler for moving loads across a world's surface.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Planetruck

The Slave Ship to Andrigo, Ross Rocklynne · 1951

An enormous hauler for moving loads across a world's surface.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A very large hauler lowers the cost of moving ore and earth at a few big sites.

Who is paid. Mining and building firms buy it, and the established makers of heavy vehicles collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Kite-Copter Car: A viewing cabin hung beneath a rotor kite that keeps it aloft.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Kite-Copter Car

The Kokod Warriors, Jack Vance · 1952

A viewing cabin hung beneath a rotor kite that keeps it aloft.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cabin hung in the air for the view is a sightseeing ride.

Who is paid. Tour operators buy it, and it is simple enough for many builders to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Monoline: A sail-powered vehicle that runs cross-country along a single track.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Monoline

Big Planet, Jack Vance · 1952

A sail-powered vehicle that runs cross-country along a single track.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sail car on a track goes only where the track runs and when the wind blows, so it suits a few places.

Who is paid. I assume a carrier runs the line, and the cars are simple enough for many builders to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Prism Window: An aircraft porthole with optics that let passengers see straight down to the land below.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Prism Window

The Space Merchants, Frederik Pohl (w/CM Kornbluth · 1952

An aircraft porthole with optics that let passengers see straight down to the land below.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A window that shows the land straight below is a treat for passengers.

Who is paid. Airlines pay for it through the aircraft, and the optics are simple to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sub-C: A label for older spacecraft that cannot outpace light.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sub-C

The Impossible Planet, Philip K. Dick · 1953

A label for older spacecraft that cannot outpace light.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The name is only a label for the ordinary starship of its story, and ships that cross between stars slower than light would still open other worlds to settlement over long voyages, which is an industry of its own.

Who is paid. I assume shipping lines and settlers pay, and many yards could build such ships, so the shipbuilders and carriers that already own yards, ports and fleets collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of One-Man Car: A compact vehicle built to carry a single rider.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

One-Man Car

The Houses of Iszm, Jack Vance · 1954

A compact vehicle built to carry a single rider.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A car for a lone rider is a cheaper, smaller car, which is a niche beside the ordinary car.

Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Public Vehicle Tube: Buried tunnels that carry people around the city in shared vehicles.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Public Vehicle Tube

The Houses of Iszm, Jack Vance · 1954

Buried tunnels that carry people around the city in shared vehicles.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Tunnels with shared vehicles under a city carry crowds past the traffic, which changes the cost of getting about a city.

Who is paid. Governments pay for a public way of this size, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Cab Driver: A mechanical chauffeur that drives a hired car and carries passengers around town.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Cab Driver

A Present for Pat, Philip K. Dick · 1954

A mechanical chauffeur that drives a hired car and carries passengers around town.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A hired car with no driver to pay makes cab rides far cheaper, which would be an industry of its own.

Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the cab buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Caterwheel: A desert vehicle riding on broad, outward-angled balloon tyres.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Caterwheel

Sand Doom, Murray Leinster · 1955

A desert vehicle riding on broad, outward-angled balloon tyres.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A vehicle on broad soft tyres for desert sand serves the few who work in such places.

Who is paid. Firms working in deserts buy it, and wide tyres are easy to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Bounce Tube: A tube that shoots people up and down between floors on a cushion of air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bounce Tube

Double Star, Robert Heinlein · 1956

A tube that shoots people up and down between floors on a cushion of air.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It moves people between floors as lifts and stairs already do, so the gain is a convenience.

Who is paid. Building owners buy it, and the firms that already fit and service lifts collect because the machine itself is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Cider Press: A cushioned couch that helps unseasoned travellers withstand heavy acceleration.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cider Press

Double Star, Robert Heinlein · 1956

A cushioned couch that helps unseasoned travellers withstand heavy acceleration.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A couch that eases heavy acceleration is needed only by the few who travel by rocket.

Who is paid. Space carriers buy it, and it is padding and springs any supplier could make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electrotruck: A battery-driven lorry that drives itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electrotruck

The Corkscrew of Space, Poul Anderson · 1956

A battery-driven lorry that drives itself.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Taking the driver out of road freight changes the costs of the whole haulage industry.

Who is paid. Haulage firms buy it, and since several firms can build a driving system once it is shown to work, the truck makers and hauliers that already own factories, fleets and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Slug: A huge flexible tube towed beneath the sea to carry oil.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Slug

Dragon in the Sea, Frank Herbert · 1956

A huge flexible tube towed beneath the sea to carry oil.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A towed tube is a cheaper way to move oil by sea on a few routes.

Who is paid. Oil shippers buy it, and many makers of flexible tanks could build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Roller: A small rugged two-seat vehicle for rough ground on other worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Roller

Shadow World, Clifford Simak · 1957

A small rugged two-seat vehicle for rough ground on other worlds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A rugged small vehicle for other worlds serves only the few people who are there.

Who is paid. Operators of bases buy it, and any builder of space vehicles could make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Platform Flyer: A small aircraft for low-altitude hops.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Platform Flyer

The Star King, Jack Vance · 1964

A small aircraft for low-altitude hops.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description limits it to low hops, so it is a small craft for short trips.

Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Single Seat Scooter: A rentable one-wheeled personal vehicle.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Single Seat Scooter

The Star King, Jack Vance · 1964

A rentable one-wheeled personal vehicle.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A narrow self-balancing vehicle is a handy way round town but does little that a small car or motorbike does not.

Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the scooters for hire buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Crash Balloons: Airbags that inflate to cushion and restrain a rider in a crash.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Crash Balloons

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

Airbags that inflate to cushion and restrain a rider in a crash.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Cushions that save riders in a crash matter greatly to those riders, but they are a safety feature inside a vehicle, as the other safety features here are.

Who is paid. Drivers pay for them with the car, and the parts suppliers that already sell to the car makers collect because the design is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Squib: A basic small vehicle for getting around on land.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Squib

Our Friends From Frolix 8, Philip K. Dick · 1970

A basic small vehicle for getting around on land.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A basic small land vehicle is a cheap runabout, which I take to be a niche beside the ordinary car.

Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sandcrawler: A giant tracked vehicle serving as a roving home on desert plains.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sandcrawler

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

A giant tracked vehicle serving as a roving home on desert plains.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A giant roving home for desert plains suits a few people who live and work there.

Who is paid. I assume the people who live in it buy it, and any maker of heavy tracked vehicles could build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Grapple Tracks: Machinery that automatically stores and retrieves cars in a parking garage.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Grapple Tracks

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

Machinery that automatically stores and retrieves cars in a parking garage.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Machinery that stores and fetches cars fits more of them into a garage, which is a saving for the owner of the garage.

Who is paid. Garage owners buy it, and it is ordinary machinery many firms can build, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Skitter: A two-seat car steered by a bar and stored in an automated garage.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Skitter

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

A two-seat car steered by a bar and stored in an automated garage.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A small car steered by a bar is a compact car, which is a niche beside the ordinary car.

Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Car Sound Tape: A recording played by a quiet vehicle to imitate engine noise.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Car Sound Tape

The Cat Who Walks Through Walls, Robert Heinlein · 1985

A recording played by a quiet vehicle to imitate engine noise.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Engine noise for a quiet vehicle is a small matter of taste or of warning people on foot.

Who is paid. Drivers pay for it, and a recording and a speaker can be made by anyone, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Deliverator Car: A fast, armoured car used for time-pressured food delivery.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Deliverator Car

Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992

A fast, armoured car used for time-pressured food delivery.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A fast armoured car for rushing food to the door is a costly way to do a job a scooter does.

Who is paid. Delivery firms buy it, and it is an ordinary car made faster and tougher, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of MagnaPoon: A magnetic tether a skateboarder fires at a passing car to be towed along.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

MagnaPoon

Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992

A magnetic tether a skateboarder fires at a passing car to be towed along.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tow from a passing car is a trick for a few daring riders.

Who is paid. Riders buy it, and a magnet on a line is simple to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Escalladder: A powered ladder that carries you upward while you stand still.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Escalladder

Crashlander, Larry Niven · 1994

A powered ladder that carries you upward while you stand still.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It moves people between floors as lifts and stairs already do, so the gain is a convenience.

Who is paid. Building owners buy it, and the firms that already fit and service lifts collect because the machine itself is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Face Seal: A sealed facial mask for diving far below the surface.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Face Seal

Starfish, Peter Watts · 1999

A sealed facial mask for diving far below the surface.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sealed mask for very deep diving serves the few who work far below the surface.

Who is paid. Deep sea operators buy it, and it is specialist kit several suppliers could make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Cop Block: A tool letting police remotely stop a fleeing driver's motor.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cop Block

Quantico, Greg Bear · 2007

A tool letting police remotely stop a fleeing driver's motor.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Stopping a fleeing car from a distance makes chases safer, which serves police forces alone.

Who is paid. Police forces pay for it, and the firms that already supply police gear and car electronics collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Forward Warehousing: Logistics that stores goods in parked private vehicles close to where buyers live.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Forward Warehousing

Stealing Worlds, Karl Schroeder · 2019

Logistics that stores goods in parked private vehicles close to where buyers live.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping goods in parked cars near buyers would speed some deliveries, but shops and depots already sit close to most people.

Who is paid. Retailers pay for it, and the delivery firms that already run the networks and hold the customers collect because the idea is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Energy and power · 12
Illustration of Iridium Spirals (Street Lights): Street lamps bright enough to make city streets look like daytime after dark.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Iridium Spirals (Street Lights)

Ralph 124c 41 +, Hugo Gernsback · 1911

Street lamps bright enough to make city streets look like daytime after dark.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Streets as bright as day after dark are a convenience on top of ordinary street lighting.

Who is paid. City governments pay because nobody can be charged street by street, and any lamp maker can supply them so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Atomic Engine: An engine that runs on nuclear fuel.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atomic Engine

The World Set Free, H.G. Wells · 1914

An engine that runs on nuclear fuel.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Plentiful power from a little fuel would change what electricity and heavy transport cost.

Who is paid. Power and transport firms buy it, and because governments let only a few hands hold nuclear fuel, the few permitted makers keep what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sunray Tank: A container that captures solar energy and holds it for later power use.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sunray Tank

Warlord of Mars, Edgar Rice Burroughs · 1914

A container that captures solar energy and holds it for later power use.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Catching sunlight and holding it for later makes solar power usable at night, which changes what power costs.

Who is paid. Power firms and building owners buy it, and assuming it is a simple tank many can build, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Atomic Energy Motor: A motor that draws its power from nuclear reactions.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atomic Energy Motor

The Man from the Atom, G. Peyton Wertenbaker · 1926

A motor that draws its power from nuclear reactions.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Plentiful power from a little fuel would change what electricity and heavy transport cost.

Who is paid. Power and transport firms buy it, and because governments let only a few hands hold nuclear fuel, the few permitted makers keep what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Harvest Power From Stray Energy: Gathers ambient electrical energy from the surroundings to run a small device.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Harvest Power From Stray Energy

The Golden Girl of Munan, Harl Vincent · 1928

Gathers ambient electrical energy from the surroundings to run a small device.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Running a small device on stray energy saves a battery, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. People buy it inside small gadgets, and any gadget maker can add it so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Helium Tubes: Lamps whose glow reproduces the full spectrum of daylight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Helium Tubes

The Cubic City, Louis Tucker, D.D. · 1929

Lamps whose glow reproduces the full spectrum of daylight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Lamps that match daylight are a nicer light, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. People buy them for homes and shops, and any lamp maker can produce them so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Thermlectrium: A metal alloy that converts heat straight into electric current with no moving parts.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Thermlectrium

Blindness, John W. Campbell · 1935

A metal alloy that converts heat straight into electric current with no moving parts.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An alloy that turns heat straight into current with no moving parts would change what it costs to make power from any hot source.

Who is paid. Power plant and engine builders buy it, and the inventor of a new material can keep the recipe protected for a time.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tiny Atomic-Power Drive Unit: A compact nuclear generator small enough to power a vehicle or portable machine.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tiny Atomic-Power Drive Unit

The Brain Pirates, John W. Campbell · 1938

A compact nuclear generator small enough to power a vehicle or portable machine.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A nuclear generator small enough for a vehicle or portable machine would change what it costs to work far from a grid.

Who is paid. Firms working far from a grid buy it, and because governments let only a few hands hold nuclear fuel, the few permitted makers keep what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Personal Solar Plant: A rooftop or backyard solar installation that powers one household independently.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Personal Solar Plant

Ring Around the Sun, Clifford Simak · 1952

A rooftop or backyard solar installation that powers one household independently.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A home that makes all its own power changes what electricity costs the people living there.

Who is paid. Here the household buys it for itself, which is the difference from other panels, and many makers can supply it so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sunshade-Photocell Collector: A whimsical canopy that shades people while gathering solar power.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sunshade-Photocell Collector

Earth, David Brin · 1990

A whimsical canopy that shades people while gathering solar power.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A canopy that shades people and makes a little power is a convenience.

Who is paid. People buy it for gardens and outings, and any maker can produce it so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Oceanic Thermal Energy Converter: A power plant that draws on ocean temperature differences to generate electricity.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Oceanic Thermal Energy Converter

Saturn's Race, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes) · 2000

A power plant that draws on ocean temperature differences to generate electricity.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Power from warm and cold sea water is one more way to make electricity in a few warm coastal places.

Who is paid. Power companies buy the plant, and the design is ordinary engineering that many builders can copy so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Fuel Tree: Crops grown specifically to be burned or refined for energy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fuel Tree

Anathem, Neal Stephenson · 2008

Crops grown specifically to be burned or refined for energy.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Crops grown for burning or refining are worth an industry, though the real thing turned out a modest extra fuel.

Who is paid. Fuel sellers and vehicle fleets buy it, and since the processing is easy to copy those who already own the farmland collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Materials, manufacturing and construction · 56
Illustration of Helium Metal: A mined mineral that gives off the spectral signature of the element helium.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Helium Metal

In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897

A mined mineral that gives off the spectral signature of the element helium.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description gives the mineral no use, so I assumed it is mined as a modest source of a useful gas.

Who is paid. Industrial users would buy what is mined, and unlike the scarce gem and the wonder ore nothing here is said to be rare or without substitute, so the many mining firms that own such ground would sell it and none could hold buyers to one source.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Eadhamite: A man-made paving substance that gives roads an unusually slick, even finish.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Eadhamite

When the Sleeper Wakes, H.G. Wells · 1899

A man-made paving substance that gives roads an unusually slick, even finish.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Smooth, long-lasting roads would cut the cost of moving people and goods everywhere.

Who is paid. Governments pay for roads, and the paving firms that already hold road contracts can all lay it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Individualized Clothing Manufacture: Machines that cut and assemble garments to fit each customer's body from recorded measurements.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Individualized Clothing Manufacture

When the Sleeper Wakes, H.G. Wells · 1899

Machines that cut and assemble garments to fit each customer's body from recorded measurements.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Clothes cut by machine to fit each body would change the clothing trade's costs and waste.

Who is paid. People buy the clothes, and the machines can be copied, so clothing brands and shops with customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Steelonium: A steel alloy that resists rust and corrosion indefinitely.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Steelonium

Ralph 124c 41 +, Hugo Gernsback · 1911

A steel alloy that resists rust and corrosion indefinitely.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Steel that never rusts would end much of the upkeep of bridges, ships and pipes.

Who is paid. Builders and shipyards buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established steel makers with furnaces and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Magnetic Shoes: Boots with magnets in the soles so workers can grip and walk on iron or steel surfaces.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magnetic Shoes

The Silent Destroyer, Henri Dahl Juve · 1929

Boots with magnets in the soles so workers can grip and walk on iron or steel surfaces.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Boots that grip metal help the few who work on hulls and steel frames.

Who is paid. Employers buy them for their workers, and any bootmaker can fit magnets to a sole.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Metalloglass: A see-through structural material with the strength and composition of metal.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Metalloglass

Buck Rogers, 2430 AD, Philip Nowlan (w/D. Calkins · 1929

A see-through structural material with the strength and composition of metal.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A see-through material with the strength of metal would change how windows, vehicles and buildings are made.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Reflectocosmic Spectrometer: An instrument that reads how cosmic radiation bounces off buried or hidden metals to identify and locate them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Reflectocosmic Spectrometer

Buck Rogers, 2430 AD, Philip Nowlan (w/D. Calkins · 1929

An instrument that reads how cosmic radiation bounces off buried or hidden metals to identify and locate them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Finding and naming buried metals from the surface would change the cost of prospecting for the whole mining trade.

Who is paid. Mining firms buy it, and an instrument can be studied and copied, so established instrument makers and survey firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Magnalloy: A tough, long-lasting alloy based on magnesium.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magnalloy

The Cave of Horror, S.P. Meek · 1930

A tough, long-lasting alloy based on magnesium.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A tough, lasting light alloy would cut the weight and running cost of aircraft, vehicles and structures.

Who is paid. Vehicle and building firms buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established metal makers with furnaces and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Plastifoam: An expanding foam sprayed over a hull breach to plug escaping air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plastifoam

Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1930

An expanding foam sprayed over a hull breach to plug escaping air.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Stopping air escaping through a hull breach is a vital repair supply for ship operators, not an industry.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy it, and a foam is easy for many chemical firms to match, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Alpha Insert: A sealing compound that plugs holes in a ship's hull after a strike.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Alpha Insert

Exiles of the Moon, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931

A sealing compound that plugs holes in a ship's hull after a strike.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A compound that plugs hull holes is a useful repair supply for ship operators, not an industry.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy it, and a sealant is easy for many chemical firms to match, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Argento-Platinoid Dispatch Box: A sealed metal-alloy case for carrying messages that no one can break into along the way.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Argento-Platinoid Dispatch Box

Venus Mines, Incorporated, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931

A sealed metal-alloy case for carrying messages that no one can break into along the way.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A case that cannot be broken into serves the few who must send secrets or valuables by hand.

Who is paid. Firms and couriers buy it, and many metal workers can make a strong sealed box, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sodaluminum: A light, strong aluminium-based alloy for building craft.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sodaluminum

Exiles of the Moon, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931

A light, strong aluminium-based alloy for building craft.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A light, strong alloy for building craft would cut the weight and running cost of aircraft and ships.

Who is paid. Vehicle makers buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established metal makers with furnaces and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Quartzite Leak Foil: A special sheet material used to seal breaches in pressurised shelters on airless worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Quartzite Leak Foil

The Great Dome of Mercury, Leo Zagat · 1932

A special sheet material used to seal breaches in pressurised shelters on airless worlds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sheet for sealing leaks in pressurised shelters is a repair supply.

Who is paid. Operators of such shelters buy it, and a sealing sheet is easy for many firms to match, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Penetron: A synthetic material that blocks ordinary sight but turns see-through when viewed with heat-band light.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Penetron

Redmask of the Outlands, Nat Schachner · 1934

A synthetic material that blocks ordinary sight but turns see-through when viewed with heat-band light.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A material that hides things from the eye but not from heat cameras suits a few screening and security uses.

Who is paid. Security and equipment firms buy it, and many chemical firms could match it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Atom Compactor (Metal Earthworm): A burrowing machine that bores through rock underground.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atom Compactor (Metal Earthworm)

Death Dives Deep, Paul Ernst · 1936

A burrowing machine that bores through rock underground.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that bores quickly through rock would change the cost of tunnels and mines.

Who is paid. Mining and building firms buy it, and makers of heavy digging machines who already sell to them can copy and supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Vitrisheen: A see-through glassy material worn as fashion.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vitrisheen

Moon Crystals, J. Harvey Haggard · 1936

A see-through glassy material worn as fashion.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A glassy see-through material worn as fashion is a novelty.

Who is paid. People buy it to wear, and many firms can make a fashion material, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Atomic Drill: A nuclear-powered boring machine for digging deep into worlds and space rocks.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atomic Drill

Minus Planet, John D. Clark, Ph.D · 1937

A nuclear-powered boring machine for digging deep into worlds and space rocks.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that digs deep into worlds and space rocks would change the cost of tunnels and mines.

Who is paid. Mining firms buy it, and makers of heavy digging machines who already sell to them can copy and supply it, the atomic power needing approval but not a scarce licence.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Liquid Metal: Metal applied as a spray coating onto surfaces.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Liquid Metal

The Dual World, Arthur K. Barnes · 1938

Metal applied as a spray coating onto surfaces.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Spraying metal onto surfaces is a useful way to protect and repair parts.

Who is paid. Workshops and factories buy it, and many firms can build such sprayers.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Atomic Torch: A cutting and joining tool driven by atomic energy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atomic Torch

One Against The Legion, Jack Williamson · 1939

A cutting and joining tool driven by atomic energy.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A stronger cutting and joining tool is a workshop improvement, not a new industry.

Who is paid. Workshops and builders buy it, and many toolmakers could build such a torch, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Metalite: A tough metal-like material that light passes through.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Metalite

Black Destroyer, A.E. van Vogt · 1939

A tough metal-like material that light passes through.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A see-through material as tough as metal would change how windows, vehicles and buildings are made.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Thermalite: A clear material that lets light through while trapping nearly all heat inside.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Thermalite

Planet of Eternal Night, John W. Campbell · 1939

A clear material that lets light through while trapping nearly all heat inside.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A clear material that lets in light and keeps nearly all heat would cut the cost of heating buildings everywhere.

Who is paid. Home owners pay for it in their windows, and many glass firms could make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Double-Pane Vacuum Window: Glazing made of two glass sheets with empty space sealed between them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Double-Pane Vacuum Window

The Achilles Heel, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1940

Glazing made of two glass sheets with empty space sealed between them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Windows that hold heat in cut heating and cooling bills in most buildings, which is worth an industry.

Who is paid. Home owners and builders buy it, and any glass works can seal panes this way, so buyers keep the gain.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Hyperbolic Solenoid: A coil apparatus that produces and shapes magnetic fields.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hyperbolic Solenoid

The Exhalted, L. Sprague de Camp · 1940

A coil apparatus that produces and shapes magnetic fields.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A coil that shapes magnetic fields is a part for laboratories and machines.

Who is paid. Laboratories and machine makers buy it, and many electrical firms can wind such a coil.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Silk-Metal: A woven cloth made partly of metal that is extremely hard to tear or cut.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Silk-Metal

The Worlds of Tomorrow, Manly Wade Wellman · 1940

A woven cloth made partly of metal that is extremely hard to tear or cut.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Cloth that is very hard to tear or cut makes better protective clothing, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Employers buy it for workers, and the weave can be copied, so established workwear and textile firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Synthetic Flesh: Artificial skin-like material used to alter someone's appearance.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Synthetic Flesh

The Amazon Fights Again, Thornton Ayre · 1940

Artificial skin-like material used to alter someone's appearance.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A skin-like material that changes how someone looks serves actors and spies, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Stage and film firms buy it, assuming open sale and that spy services are a minor buyer, and many firms could make such a skin.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Vacuum Wall Compartments: Walls with sealed empty gaps inside that block the passage of heat.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vacuum Wall Compartments

The Achilles Heel, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1940

Walls with sealed empty gaps inside that block the passage of heat.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Walls with sealed empty gaps keep heat in and would cut the cost of heating and cooling buildings.

Who is paid. Home owners pay for it in their walls, and the idea is simple for any builder to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Black Coating: A surface layer so dark it soaks up almost every ray of light that hits it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Black Coating

Gray Lensman, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1942

A surface layer so dark it soaks up almost every ray of light that hits it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A coating that soaks up nearly all light helps telescopes, cameras and a few design uses, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Instrument makers buy it, and a coating can be studied and matched by many paint and chemical firms, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Plastifoam: Expanding foam sprayed to plug big breaches in a spacecraft hull.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plastifoam

Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942

Expanding foam sprayed to plug big breaches in a spacecraft hull.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Stopping air escaping through a hull breach is a vital repair supply for ship operators, not an industry.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy it, and a foam is easy for many chemical firms to match, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Aladur: A light material with very great pulling strength.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Aladur

Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943

A light material with very great pulling strength.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A light material of very great pulling strength would change the cost of cables, aircraft and structures.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Durasteel: An alloy that outlasts ordinary steel under wear and stress.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Durasteel

Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943

An alloy that outlasts ordinary steel under wear and stress.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An alloy that outlasts steel would cut replacement and upkeep costs in machines and structures.

Who is paid. Makers of machines and buildings buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established metal makers with furnaces and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Herculoy: An exceptionally tough metal blend used in construction.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Herculoy

The Howling Bounders, Jack Vance · 1949

An exceptionally tough metal blend used in construction.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An exceptionally tough building metal would cut replacement and upkeep costs in structures.

Who is paid. Builders buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established metal makers with furnaces and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Self-Sealing Plastic: Clear plastic film with an inner layer that oozes into small punctures and seals them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Self-Sealing Plastic

Asteroid of Fear, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1951

Clear plastic film with an inner layer that oozes into small punctures and seals them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Film that seals its own small punctures is a handy improvement to tents, suits and packaging.

Who is paid. Makers of such goods buy it, and many plastics firms can match it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Heat-Suit: Protective clothing that keeps a person cool enough to work on scorching worlds with breathable air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Heat-Suit

Sand Doom, Murray Leinster · 1955

Protective clothing that keeps a person cool enough to work on scorching worlds with breathable air.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Clothing that keeps a worker cool in scorching places matters to the few who work there.

Who is paid. Employers of people in hot places buy it, and makers of safety gear who already supply them can copy and sell it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Product Prescription: A digital recipe from which a machine can manufacture a copy of an object.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Product Prescription

The Magellanic Cloud, Stanislaw Lem · 1955

A digital recipe from which a machine can manufacture a copy of an object.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A recipe that lets a machine make a copy of any object is the working part of a make-anything machine, which makes most goods nearly free.

Who is paid. People get recipes for a home or shop machine, I assume, and a digital recipe is copied freely, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Puddinged: A slang term for a botched replica whose inside is a shapeless mess.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Puddinged

Pay for the Printer, Philip K. Dick · 1956

A slang term for a botched replica whose inside is a shapeless mess.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a slang word for a failed copy, not a thing anyone could buy.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold; it names a fault, not a product.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Plastotek: An artificial skin layer worn to change one's appearance.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plastotek

Menace From Vega, Robert Randall · 1958

An artificial skin layer worn to change one's appearance.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A false skin that changes how someone looks serves actors and spies, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Stage and film firms buy it, assuming open sale and that spy services are a minor buyer, and many firms could make such a skin.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Plexiskin: A synthetic covering worn over the face to pass as someone else.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plexiskin

A Spaceship Named McGuire, Gordon Randall Garrett · 1961

A synthetic covering worn over the face to pass as someone else.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A false face for passing as someone else serves actors and spies, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Stage and film firms buy it, assuming open sale and that spy services are a minor buyer, and many firms could make such a skin.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Spray-On Clothing: Garments applied to the body straight from an aerosol can.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spray-On Clothing

Return from the Stars, Stanislaw Lem · 1961

Garments applied to the body straight from an aerosol can.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Clothes sprayed straight onto the body would fit anyone at once and upset the garment trade; the real thing so far is a novelty, and I judged the promise.

Who is paid. People buy the cans, and the spray can be matched, so clothing brands with shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Self-Healing Building: Structural walls that repair their own cracks when stressed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Self-Healing Building

The Thousand Dreams of Stellavista, J.G. Ballard · 1962

Structural walls that repair their own cracks when stressed.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Walls that mend their own cracks would cut the upkeep and risk of buildings and bridges.

Who is paid. Developers and owners buy it, and once the method is known the big builders and materials firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Flexible Stem: A long pliable tube that rapidly lengthens and shortens.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flexible Stem

The Killing Machine, Jack Vance · 1964

A long pliable tube that rapidly lengthens and shortens.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tube that quickly lengthens and shortens is a handy part for tools and machines.

Who is paid. Makers of tools and machines buy it, and many firms can make such a part.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Dekon Type DCQ: A foam for decontaminating people or equipment.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dekon Type DCQ

Subspace Explorers, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1965

A foam for decontaminating people or equipment.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cleansing foam matters after spills and accidents, which is a niche supply.

Who is paid. Plants, ships and hospitals buy it, and many chemical firms can make such a foam.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Photosensitive Pigment: A coating that remains empty until light records a scene on it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Photosensitive Pigment

Cry Hope, Cry Fury!, J.G. Ballard · 1966

A coating that remains empty until light records a scene on it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A coating that records a scene is a way of taking pictures, judged here as a paint and not as the whole camera trade.

Who is paid. Printers and picture makers buy it, and many chemical firms can match a coating, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Device Replication: Making equipment on demand from stored patterns to save cargo room aboard ships.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Device Replication

The Man in the Maze, Robert Silverberg · 1969

Making equipment on demand from stored patterns to save cargo room aboard ships.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. It is the same kind of machine as the make-anything machines, but it is described only as making ship's equipment on demand to save cargo room, which changes supply costs for fleets and remote sites.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy the machines because the description puts them aboard ships, and as with the other make-anything machines a machine that makes equipment from stored patterns can make its own parts and the patterns can be passed around, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Metal Paste: A squeezable conductive metal compound dispensed from a tube.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Metal Paste

The Mote in God's Eye, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1974

A squeezable conductive metal compound dispensed from a tube.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Conductive metal from a tube is a handy repair and assembly supply.

Who is paid. Workshops and electronics makers buy it, and many chemical firms can match a paste, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Personal Smelter: A home device that melts scrap metal into a bar of certified worth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Personal Smelter

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

A home device that melts scrap metal into a bar of certified worth.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Melting scrap at home into a bar is a convenience for a few people.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and a small furnace is easy to make; I assumed the certifying is not held by one firm.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Glowstone: A stone that soaks up daylight and glows through the night.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Glowstone

Dying of the Light, George RR Martin · 1977

A stone that soaks up daylight and glows through the night.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A stone that glows at night is a pleasant way to light paths and rooms without power.

Who is paid. People buy it for homes and gardens, and assuming the stone is common, many quarries could sell it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Trimagniscope: A scanner that shows a clear slice through the inside of any object.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Trimagniscope

Inherit the Stars, James P. Hogan · 1977

A scanner that shows a clear slice through the inside of any object.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Seeing a clear slice through any object helps inspection and repair, which is a specialist tool.

Who is paid. Factories and laboratories buy it, and the method can be copied, so established instrument makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Receptor Tape: A thin bendable strip that works as a sound pickup.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Receptor Tape

The Face, Jack Vance · 1979

A thin bendable strip that works as a sound pickup.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A bendable strip that picks up sound is a handy part for recording and listening gear.

Who is paid. Equipment makers buy it, and many electronics firms can make such a strip, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Absolute Black: A coating so dark it swallows essentially every ray of light striking it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Absolute Black

Restaurant at the End of the Universe, Douglas Adams · 1980

A coating so dark it swallows essentially every ray of light striking it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A perfectly dark coating helps telescopes, cameras and a few art and design uses, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Instrument makers buy it, and a coating can be studied and matched by many paint and chemical firms, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Fuligin: A fabric dye of a shade deeper than ordinary black.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fuligin

The Shadow of the Torturer, Gene Wolfe · 1980

A fabric dye of a shade deeper than ordinary black.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A dye darker than black is a matter of fashion and ceremony, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Cloth makers buy it, and a dye can be studied and matched by many chemical firms, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Arachnofiber Uniforms: Protective work clothing woven from very strong fibre for delivery workers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Arachnofiber Uniforms

Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992

Protective work clothing woven from very strong fibre for delivery workers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Tough work clothing saves some injuries for people in risky jobs, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Employers buy it for their workers, and the fibre and workwear firms that already supply them make it without any one keeping others out.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sintered Armorgel: A protective material that stays soft in normal motion but stiffens instantly when struck.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sintered Armorgel

Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992

A protective material that stays soft in normal motion but stiffens instantly when struck.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Soft armour that stiffens when struck is better protective kit, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Armies and police pay, assuming they are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold armour contracts supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Semisentient Plastic: A tough protective film that shields and preserves whatever it covers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Semisentient Plastic

Ring, Stephen Baxter · 1994

A tough protective film that shields and preserves whatever it covers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tough film that protects and preserves what it covers is better packaging.

Who is paid. Shippers and stores buy it, and many plastics firms could match a film, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Nanofax: Scanning a solid object in one place and reproducing a duplicate of it somewhere far away.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nanofax

All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999

Scanning a solid object in one place and reproducing a duplicate of it somewhere far away.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Copying any solid object at a far-off place makes most goods nearly free and ends much shipping.

Who is paid. People buy or use it, assuming a home or shop machine, and a machine that copies anything copies itself, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Self-Cleaning Gym Suit: Athletic clothing that eliminates the cause of sweaty smells as you wear it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Self-Cleaning Gym Suit

Oryx and Crake, Margaret Atwood · 2003

Athletic clothing that eliminates the cause of sweaty smells as you wear it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Sports clothes that do not smell are a convenience, and narrower than cloth that never needs washing.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and the treatment can be copied, so sportswear brands with shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Distributed Assembly Plant: Parts made and joined by many unknown contributors spread across a network rather than one factory.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Distributed Assembly Plant

Daemon, Daniel Suarez · 2009

Parts made and joined by many unknown contributors spread across a network rather than one factory.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Making and joining parts across a network of many small shops would change the cost of setting up manufacturing.

Who is paid. Firms wanting goods made pay the scattered makers, and since anyone with tools can join, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Weapons and warfare · 61
Illustration of Electrify the Rail: Charging a vessel's metal skin with high voltage so anyone who touches it gets shocked.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electrify the Rail

20,000 Leagues Under the Sea, Jules Verne · 1875

Charging a vessel's metal skin with high voltage so anyone who touches it gets shocked.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Charging a hull to shock boarders is a simple trick for a few vessels.

Who is paid. Assuming shipowners fit it against boarders, any marine electrician can do the work.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Leyden Ball: A projectile for undersea hunting that stuns or kills its target with a strong electric discharge.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Leyden Ball

20,000 Leagues Under the Sea, Jules Verne · 1875

A projectile for undersea hunting that stuns or kills its target with a strong electric discharge.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An electric projectile for hunting under the sea serves a small group of divers and fishers.

Who is paid. Hunters and divers buy it, and a charged dart is simple enough that many workshops could make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of War-Balloon (Navigable Aerostat): Giant steerable gas-filled airships used to fight wars from above.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

War-Balloon (Navigable Aerostat)

The Angel of the Revolution, George Griffith · 1893

Giant steerable gas-filled airships used to fight wars from above.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged on the promise of ruling a war from the air, which real airships never delivered, a fighting aircraft fleet is among the biggest things a state buys.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and since the designs can be copied, the builders that already own the works and hold the army's supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Fulgurator: A self-propelled explosive projectile with enormous destructive power.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fulgurator

Facing The Flag, Jules Verne · 1896

A self-propelled explosive projectile with enormous destructive power.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Self-propelled and guided explosives became the main heavy weapon of modern forces, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and since the idea is easy to copy once shown, the arms firms that already hold the supply contracts and factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Magnetic Shell: An explosive projectile that is drawn toward iron-hulled warships by magnetism.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magnetic Shell

The Great Stone of Sardis, Frank Stockton · 1897

An explosive projectile that is drawn toward iron-hulled warships by magnetism.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Self-propelled and guided explosives became the main heavy weapon of modern forces, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and since the idea is easy to copy once shown, the arms firms that already hold the supply contracts and factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Black Smoke: A lethal vapour released from canisters that spreads over the ground and kills.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Black Smoke

The War of the Worlds, H.G. Wells · 1898

A lethal vapour released from canisters that spreads over the ground and kills.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a poison meant to kill or fell people in bulk, which no one may lawfully buy.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Radioactive Ruin: Long-lasting contamination that leaves land uninhabitable for generations after nuclear war.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Radioactive Ruin

The World Set Free, H.G. Wells · 1914

Long-lasting contamination that leaves land uninhabitable for generations after nuclear war.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Land poisoned for generations is a harm left by war and not a thing anyone would pay for.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so there is no payer and no seller.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Paralyzing Cone: A weapon that locks up a target's muscles so they cannot move.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Paralyzing Cone

The Atomic Conquerors, Edmond Hamilton · 1927

A weapon that locks up a target's muscles so they cannot move.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a weapon that surely stops a person at a distance without harming them does what no gun can, and police and guards everywhere would carry it in place of firearms.

Who is paid. Police forces and armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers could copy it once it was shown, the suppliers that already hold their contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Pain Ray: A weapon that causes intense pain by stimulating nerves from a distance.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pain Ray

Crashing Suns, Edmond Hamilton · 1928

A weapon that causes intense pain by stimulating nerves from a distance.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Unlike a device for hurting a held prisoner, a beam that drives off free people through pain is a weapon police may lawfully carry, but it only moves a crowd along, a niche.

Who is paid. Police and prison services pay, and the firms that already supply them would add it to their range and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Atomic Shell: An artillery round carrying a nuclear warhead.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atomic Shell

Buck Rogers, 2430 AD, Philip Nowlan (w/D. Calkins · 1929

An artillery round carrying a nuclear warhead.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A weapon that can end a war or prevent one is worth a great deal to the state that holds it.

Who is paid. Only governments pay for it, and only the handful of builders a state allows near the material may make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Disintegrator Plate Ray: A beam tool that slices through steel with almost no resistance.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Disintegrator Plate Ray

The Revolt of the Machines, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931

A beam tool that slices through steel with almost no resistance.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Assuming it is a cutting beam for workshops, it speeds up cutting steel but tools for that already exist.

Who is paid. Metalworking firms buy it, and many toolmakers can build a cutting beam, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Flame Pistol: A handheld flamethrower used to burn enemies.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flame Pistol

Invisible Ships, Harl Vincent · 1931

A handheld flamethrower used to burn enemies.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is one more kind of firearm, a modest step over the guns armies already carry.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot-Deranger: A jamming device that scrambles a robot's reasoning so it malfunctions.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot-Deranger

The Exile of Time, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931

A jamming device that scrambles a robot's reasoning so it malfunctions.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A jammer that makes hostile robots malfunction matters only where robots are a threat, which keeps it a niche.

Who is paid. Armies and police pay, and jamming gear is easy to copy, so the electronics firms that already supply them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cone of Battle: A fictional warship battle formation used in the story's space war.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cone of Battle

Triplanetary, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1934

A fictional warship battle formation used in the story's space war.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A battle formation is a tactic, not a technology that could be sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Darkness Bomb: A fictional blackout device used in combat in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Darkness Bomb

The Mightiest Machine, John W. Campbell · 1934

A fictional blackout device used in combat in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A device that blinds a fight for a moment is a minor aid in combat.

Who is paid. Armies buy it, and assuming it works like smoke it is simple to copy, so the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Glass Pistol: A fictional transparent sidearm used as a concealed weapon in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Glass Pistol

A Martian Odyssey, Stanley G. Weinbaum · 1934

A fictional transparent sidearm used as a concealed weapon in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A see-through pistol is only an ordinary sidearm made hard to spot, wanted by a few spies.

Who is paid. Assuming secret services are the lawful buyers, they pay, and since any gunmaker could cast one in clear material the established arms suppliers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Wire Gun: A gun that fires a wire that wraps around its target.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wire Gun

Shadow Gold, Ray Cummings · 1936

A gun that fires a wire that wraps around its target.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A device that wraps up or holds a person without hurting them is handy for police but a niche.

Who is paid. Police forces buy it, and it is simple to copy, so the suppliers police already use collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mercy Gas: A gas the story presents as a so-called merciful way to kill.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mercy Gas

The Saga of Pelican West, Eric Frank Russell · 1937

A gas the story presents as a so-called merciful way to kill.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a chemical weapon, which no state or person may lawfully buy or use.

Who is paid. Chemical weapons are outlawed for all, so nothing is sold and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Atomic Explosive: A small hand-placed charge that burns through an armoured door before exploding.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atomic Explosive

Hotel Cosmos, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1938

A small hand-placed charge that burns through an armoured door before exploding.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. As described it is a charge for breaking through armoured doors, a specialist tool.

Who is paid. Assuming it is an ordinary breaching charge and not a nuclear one, armies and police buy it from the explosives makers they already use.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Radium Salt: A radioactive substance the story's killer uses as a murder weapon.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Radium Salt

Murder in the Void, Edmond Hamilton · 1938

A radioactive substance the story's killer uses as a murder weapon.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Judged as the substance itself and not as a murder weapon, a radioactive salt has a few uses in medicine and industry.

Who is paid. Hospitals and industrial firms pay, and only the few suppliers a government allows to handle such material may sell it, so they keep what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Killer Robot: A self-directing machine designed to hunt and kill living things.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Killer Robot

Rust, Joseph E. Kelleam · 1939

A self-directing machine designed to hunt and kill living things.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that find and attack targets by themselves would change how armies and police forces are staffed and equipped.

Who is paid. Governments pay, and since the parts are widely made and the designs easy to copy, the arms firms with the standing contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Atomic Automatic: A gun that fires small self-propelled rocket rounds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atomic Automatic

Revolt on Io, Jack West · 1940

A gun that fires small self-propelled rocket rounds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is one more kind of firearm, a modest step over the guns armies already carry.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Death-Capsule: A tiny explosive planted inside a body that can be set off from afar.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Death-Capsule

Doom Over Venus, Edmond Hamilton · 1940

A tiny explosive planted inside a body that can be set off from afar.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A bomb planted inside a person to control them is a crime, not a product anyone may buy.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electro-Automatic Pistol: A compact round handgun, small enough to carry in a pocket, fired electrically.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electro-Automatic Pistol

The Worlds of Tomorrow, Manly Wade Wellman · 1940

A compact round handgun, small enough to carry in a pocket, fired electrically.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is one more kind of firearm, a modest step over the guns armies already carry.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Paralyzing Gun: A handheld weapon that knocks out anyone caught in its beam.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Paralyzing Gun

The Achilles Heel, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1940

A handheld weapon that knocks out anyone caught in its beam.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a weapon that surely stops a person at a distance without harming them does what no gun can, and police and guards everywhere would carry it in place of firearms.

Who is paid. Police forces and armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers could copy it once it was shown, the suppliers that already hold their contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Vibroblade: A combat knife whose edge vibrates rapidly to cut.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vibroblade

If This Goes On..., Robert Heinlein · 1940

A combat knife whose edge vibrates rapidly to cut.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A knife that cuts better is a small gain for the few who carry one.

Who is paid. As with other blades, a few people buy one for themselves, and assuming others can copy it once one is built, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Thermodyne Heat Ray: Concentrates heat into a directed beam that can burn or harm a target.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Thermodyne Heat Ray

A Brand New World, Ray Cummings · 1942

Concentrates heat into a directed beam that can burn or harm a target.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Assuming a soldier carries it, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Battle Integrator: A command display that shows a battle between spacecraft as a solid scene commanders can follow.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Battle Integrator

The Bureaucrat, Malcolm Jameson · 1944

A command display that shows a battle between spacecraft as a solid scene commanders can follow.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It helps commanders follow a fight but is one instrument among many on a warship.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Stationary Automatic Blaster: A fixed automated gun post that guards an area in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stationary Automatic Blaster

Red Planet, Robert Heinlein · 1949

A fixed automated gun post that guards an area in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A gun that guards a spot by itself saves some sentries but fills a narrow job within an army's kit.

Who is paid. Armies and border forces pay, and it is easy to copy from known parts, so the arms makers already supplying them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Airjeep: A small light aircraft soldiers use for getting around in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Airjeep

Uller Uprising, H. Beam Piper · 1952

A small light aircraft soldiers use for getting around in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A light aircraft for moving soldiers about is a handy vehicle, not a change in how armies fight.

Who is paid. Armies buy it, and existing aircraft makers can all build one, so those with army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mechanical Hound: A fictional robotic hunting machine used by the state in the story to track down dissidents.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mechanical Hound

Fahrenheit 451, Ray Bradbury · 1953

A fictional robotic hunting machine used by the state in the story to track down dissidents.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that find and attack targets by themselves would change how armies and police forces are staffed and equipped.

Who is paid. Governments pay, and since the parts are widely made and the designs easy to copy, the arms firms with the standing contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Rom (Robot Operated Missiles): A fictional robot-guided long-range weapon used in a future world war.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rom (Robot Operated Missiles)

Breakfast at Twilight, Philip K. Dick · 1954

A fictional robot-guided long-range weapon used in a future world war.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Munitions that steer themselves onto a target make each shot count and are a mainstay of what modern armies buy.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and since many engineering firms can build guidance, the missile and ammunition makers that already hold supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Grill-Screen Adaptor: A government-approved add-on sold to upgrade home shelters against a rival power's newest weapon, in a Cold War satire.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Grill-Screen Adaptor

Foster, You're Dead, Philip K. Dick · 1955

A government-approved add-on sold to upgrade home shelters against a rival power's newest weapon, in a Cold War satire.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An add-on for a home shelter is a minor purchase, valued more from fear than from need.

Who is paid. Families pay, and since the part is easy to make, the shelter makers who already hold the customers and the official approval collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Project X: A fictional government sound weapon that devastates a region in the novel.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Project X

Atlas Shrugged, Ayn Rand · 1957

A fictional government sound weapon that devastates a region in the novel.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A sound weapon that lays waste to a whole region is worth a great deal to a state as a threat, though it is smaller than a world-wrecker.

Who is paid. Only governments pay for it, and as with nuclear arms only the handful of builders a state allows near such a weapon may make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Nose Gun: A fictional weapon mounted high on a police robot in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nose Gun

Arm of the Law, Harry Harrison · 1958

A fictional weapon mounted high on a police robot in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A gun mounted on a police robot is a fitting for a machine, not a prize in itself.

Who is paid. Police forces pay, and the firms that build the robots and guns already would fit it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Talking Bomb: A fictional weapon in the novel that broadcasts messages to demoralise the enemy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Talking Bomb

Starship Troopers, Robert Heinlein · 1959

A fictional weapon in the novel that broadcasts messages to demoralise the enemy.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A weapon that drives people off or wears them down with sound, smell, gas or words fills a narrow job for police and armies.

Who is paid. Police and armies pay, and these devices are easy to copy, so the suppliers that already sell them equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Hammer: A fictional computer-directed flying attack machine in the novel.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hammer

Vulcan's Hammer, Philip K. Dick · 1960

A fictional computer-directed flying attack machine in the novel.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that find and attack targets by themselves would change how armies and police forces are staffed and equipped.

Who is paid. Governments pay, and since the parts are widely made and the designs easy to copy, the arms firms with the standing contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Metal BIrds: Fictional flying surveillance machines in the novel that also attack people.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Metal BIrds

Vulcan's Hammer, Philip K. Dick · 1960

Fictional flying surveillance machines in the novel that also attack people.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that find and attack targets by themselves would change how armies and police forces are staffed and equipped.

Who is paid. Governments pay, and since the parts are widely made and the designs easy to copy, the arms firms with the standing contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Power Holster: A fictional quick-draw holster worn by the novel's hero on a hostile planet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Power Holster

Deathworld, Harry Harrison · 1960

A fictional quick-draw holster worn by the novel's hero on a hostile planet.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A holster that puts the gun in the hand faster is a convenience for people who carry one.

Who is paid. Gun owners and officers buy it for themselves, and any maker of small motors and leather goods could produce it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Dispensing Tooth: A fictional concealed weapon hidden as a tooth, used in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dispensing Tooth

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A fictional concealed weapon hidden as a tooth, used in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A false tooth hiding a last-resort weapon is a tool for a handful of spies.

Who is paid. Spy services pay for the few they need, and any skilled dental workshop could make one.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Garbage-can Banger: A fictional noise-based weapon in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Garbage-can Banger

The Zap Gun, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A fictional noise-based weapon in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A weapon that works by noise is a minor crowd-control tool at best.

Who is paid. Assuming police or armies buy it, a noise-maker is simple to copy, so the suppliers they already use collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gom Jabbar: A fictional poisoned needle used in a ritual test in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gom Jabbar

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A fictional poisoned needle used in a ritual test in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A poisoned needle for a ritual test is a killing tool no one may lawfully buy, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, since a needle and poison are trivial to make and its only use is unlawful.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sheep Dip Isolator: A fictional non-lethal odour-based weapon in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sheep Dip Isolator

The Zap Gun, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A fictional non-lethal odour-based weapon in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A weapon that drives people off or wears them down with sound, smell, gas or words fills a narrow job for police and armies.

Who is paid. Police and armies pay, and these devices are easy to copy, so the suppliers that already sell them equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Vapor Charge: A fictional gas-releasing round used in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vapor Charge

Logan's Run, William Nolan (w/G.C. Johnson · 1967

A fictional gas-releasing round used in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A weapon that drives people off or wears them down with sound, smell, gas or words fills a narrow job for police and armies.

Who is paid. Police and armies pay, and these devices are easy to copy, so the suppliers that already sell them equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Karatand: A fictional fighting glove used for hand-to-hand combat in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Karatand

Stand on Zanzibar, John Brunner · 1968

A fictional fighting glove used for hand-to-hand combat in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A fighting glove is a minor personal weapon for a few buyers.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and a hardened glove is simple for anyone to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Loitering Micro-Missile: A small fictional guided munition used as a weapon in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Loitering Micro-Missile

Invader on My Back, Philip E. High · 1968

A small fictional guided munition used as a weapon in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Self-propelled and guided explosives became the main heavy weapon of modern forces, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and since the idea is easy to copy once shown, the arms firms that already hold the supply contracts and factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mercy Rifle: A fictional dart gun used to subdue rather than kill.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mercy Rifle

Grendel, Larry Niven · 1968

A fictional dart gun used to subdue rather than kill.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A dart that puts a person to sleep is a tool for police and guards, and unlike a paralysing beam it must still hit and carry the right dose, so it stays a narrow use.

Who is paid. Police forces buy it, and it is simple to copy, so the suppliers police already use collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Rod: A fictional hand weapon wielded in combat in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rod

Wolfling, Gordon R. Dickson · 1969

A fictional hand weapon wielded in combat in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description gives only a hand weapon, so a simple club or baton is assumed, which is worth little.

Who is paid. Assuming soldiers are the main users, armies buy it, and since it is simple to copy the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Stunwand: A fictional handheld stunning weapon used in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stunwand

Hellstrom's Hive, Frank Herbert · 1972

A fictional handheld stunning weapon used in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a weapon that surely stops a person at a distance without harming them does what no gun can, and police and guards everywhere would carry it in place of firearms.

Who is paid. Police forces and armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers could copy it once it was shown, the suppliers that already hold their contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tracked Vehicle: A heavily protected tracked vehicle notable for its nimble handling.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tracked Vehicle

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

A heavily protected tracked vehicle notable for its nimble handling.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Armoured fighting vehicles and warcraft are among the biggest things an army buys, and a better one shifts what winning costs.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and since the designs can be copied, the builders that already own the works and hold the army's supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of AM-280 Needle Rifle: A fictional firearm used in the story's conflict.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

AM-280 Needle Rifle

A Matter For Men, David Gerrold · 1983

A fictional firearm used in the story's conflict.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is one more kind of firearm, a modest step over the guns armies already carry.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Contact Venom: A fictional poison used as a weapon in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Contact Venom

Twenty Evocations, Bruce Sterling · 1984

A fictional poison used as a weapon in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a poison made for killing people, which no one may lawfully buy.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Smart Bullet: A fictional guided projectile weapon in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Smart Bullet

Runaway, Michael Crichton · 1985

A fictional guided projectile weapon in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Munitions that steer themselves onto a target make each shot count and are a mainstay of what modern armies buy.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and since many engineering firms can build guidance, the missile and ammunition makers that already hold supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ice Dart: A plot device in a locked-room mystery where the weapon vanishes afterward.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ice Dart

Nanotime, Bart Kosko · 1987

A plot device in a locked-room mystery where the weapon vanishes afterward.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A dart of ice that melts away after use is a tool for a handful of secret killings.

Who is paid. Assuming spy services are the only lawful buyers, they pay for the few they need, and anyone can freeze a dart.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of High-Voltage Cuffs: A fictional electrified sleeve accessory used for self-defence in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

High-Voltage Cuffs

Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992

A fictional electrified sleeve accessory used for self-defence in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Electrified sleeves are a personal protection gadget for a few cautious buyers.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy them, and a battery and wiring in a garment is easy for anyone to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Loogie Gun: A non-lethal launcher that coats a suspect in a sticky mass so they cannot move.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Loogie Gun

Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992

A non-lethal launcher that coats a suspect in a sticky mass so they cannot move.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A launcher that glues a suspect in place is a niche police tool.

Who is paid. Police forces buy it, and it is simple to copy, so the suppliers police already use collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Chunker: A fictional less-lethal crowd control launcher used by police in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chunker

Virtual Light, William Gibson · 1993

A fictional less-lethal crowd control launcher used by police in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A launcher that stops crowds without killing is a niche tool for police.

Who is paid. Police forces buy it, and it is simple to copy, so the suppliers police already use collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Belt Sword: A fictional concealed blade hidden in clothing in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Belt Sword

All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999

A fictional concealed blade hidden in clothing in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A blade hidden in a belt is a novelty for a few buyers.

Who is paid. A few people buy one for themselves, and any metal workshop can make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Disperser: A fictional vehicle anti-theft deterrent that punishes intruders in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Disperser

Sagramanda, Alan Dean Foster · 2006

A fictional vehicle anti-theft deterrent that punishes intruders in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A car alarm that hurts the thief is an extra on a car, not an industry.

Who is paid. Car owners pay, and since it is easy to copy the carmakers who fit it at the factory collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Remotely Operated Auto-targeting Gun (ROAG): A fictional remotely triggered autonomous gun emplacement in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Remotely Operated Auto-targeting Gun (ROAG)

Quantico, Greg Bear · 2007

A fictional remotely triggered autonomous gun emplacement in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A gun that guards a spot by itself saves some sentries but fills a narrow job within an army's kit.

Who is paid. Armies and border forces pay, and it is easy to copy from known parts, so the arms makers already supplying them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Autonomous Assassination Drone: A fictional self-directed flying weapon used against targets in a techno-thriller.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Autonomous Assassination Drone

Kill Decision, Daniel Suarez · 2012

A fictional self-directed flying weapon used against targets in a techno-thriller.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that find and attack targets without a soldier at risk would change how armies fight.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Surveillance, identity and control · 52
Illustration of Membrane: A hidden microphone that eavesdrops on conversations.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Membrane

We, Yevgeny Zamyatin · 1922

A hidden microphone that eavesdrops on conversations.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A better way to overhear people is a specialist tool for police and spies, not a wide market.

Who is paid. Police and spy services pay, and it is easy to copy, so the firms already supplying them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Raytron Apparatus: An airborne camera that sends overhead pictures back to its operator.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Raytron Apparatus

Beyond the Stars, Ray Cummings · 1928

An airborne camera that sends overhead pictures back to its operator.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A camera in the air sending back pictures from overhead changes what an army or police force can see.

Who is paid. Spy and police services pay, and once made it can be copied, so the firms already supplying such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Personal Metallic Record Disc: A durable stamped metal token carrying an individual's complete personal file in portable form.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Personal Metallic Record Disc

The Ancient Brain, A.G. Stangland · 1929

A durable stamped metal token carrying an individual's complete personal file in portable form.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A token carrying a person's whole file is a sturdier identity paper, a convenience for the authority that issues it.

Who is paid. Whoever issues the credential pays, assumed here to be a state, and the firms that already make official papers and registers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Brigands of the Moon: A listening instrument that amplifies extremely faint noises until they are audible.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Brigands of the Moon

Brigands of the Moon, Ray Cummings · 1930

A listening instrument that amplifies extremely faint noises until they are audible.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A better way to overhear people is a specialist tool for police and spies, not a wide market.

Who is paid. Police and spy services pay, and it is easy to copy, so the firms already supplying them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Isolation Barrage: Blocks anyone from listening in on a conversation by surrounding it with interference.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Isolation Barrage

Wandl, The Invader, Ray Cummings · 1932

Blocks anyone from listening in on a conversation by surrounding it with interference.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping a room or a talk private from listeners is a niche need for those with secrets worth stealing.

Who is paid. Firms and officials guarding secrets buy it, and many makers can build such a blocker so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Search Beams: Rays that see through walls and hulls to show what is inside enclosed spaces.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Search Beams

Slaves of Mercury, Nat Schachner · 1932

Rays that see through walls and hulls to show what is inside enclosed spaces.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Seeing through walls and hulls would change inspection, building, rescue and shipping.

Who is paid. Nothing says it watches people, so mines, builders, shippers and inspectors are assumed to pay, and once built it can be copied, so the firms already making scanning and imaging gear collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Human Serial Number: Every person carries a permanent identification code inked into the skin, letting authorities track and verify who they are.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Human Serial Number

Unto Us A Child Is Born, David H. Keller · 1933

Every person carries a permanent identification code inked into the skin, letting authorities track and verify who they are.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A number inked on every person is an identity paper that cannot be lost, a narrow change to documents a state already issues.

Who is paid. The state pays to mark and register its people, and marking is easy to do, so the firms that already make identity documents and keep the registers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Zed-Ray: A beam that shows what is inside a sealed container without opening it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Zed-Ray

Blood of the Moon, Ray Cummings · 1936

A beam that shows what is inside a sealed container without opening it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Seeing inside a sealed container without opening it would change inspection at ports, borders and factories.

Who is paid. Shippers, ports and inspectors pay, and once built it can be copied, so the firms already making scanning gear collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Poldek: A way of detecting the presence of living beings nearby.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Poldek

The Saga of Pelican West, Eric Frank Russell · 1937

A way of detecting the presence of living beings nearby.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Sensing living beings nearby helps searchers, guards and hunters, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Assumes soldiers, police and rescue services are the main buyers; the firms already supplying them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Vibration Screen: A shield of rays that blocks electronic eavesdropping.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vibration Screen

The Shining One, Nat Schachner · 1937

A shield of rays that blocks electronic eavesdropping.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A screen of rays against electronic listening protects a private talk, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Firms with secrets to keep buy it, and many makers could build such a blocker so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Identification Ring: Jewellery that carries detailed personal and biometric data to verify who is wearing it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Identification Ring

Sinister Barrier, Eric Frank Russell · 1939

Jewellery that carries detailed personal and biometric data to verify who is wearing it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A ring that proves who you are is a convenient form of an identity card.

Who is paid. Assuming an authority issues it as it does a card, the issuing office pays, and the ring is easy to copy, so the firms that already make identity documents collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Alterable License Number: A car plate the driver can change from the seat to show a different registration.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Alterable License Number

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

A car plate the driver can change from the seat to show a different registration.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A plate that can show a false registration is a tool for moving unseen, useful to a few agents and forbidden to ordinary drivers.

Who is paid. Assuming a spy or police service is the lawful buyer, it pays, and since any workshop could build it the firms already trusted with secret supply work collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Automatic Speeding Fine: Measures a car's speed, logs the offence and sends out the penalty notice without human involvement.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automatic Speeding Fine

Old Fireball, Nat Schachner · 1941

Measures a car's speed, logs the offence and sends out the penalty notice without human involvement.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Catching speeders without an officer saves some police labour but is a narrow tool.

Who is paid. Road authorities pay, and the cameras are easy to copy, so firms that already hold traffic supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Visigraphic Crowd Emotional Record: Charts the collective moods of a gathered audience as a visual trace.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Visigraphic Crowd Emotional Record

Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943

Charts the collective moods of a gathered audience as a visual trace.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Charting the mood of an audience helps those who stage shows, speeches and meetings, which is a niche.

Who is paid. The description says an audience and not a crowd to be policed, so showmen and campaigners are assumed to pay, and such an instrument is easy for many makers to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Memory Hole: A wall slot that sends inconvenient papers off to be burned.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Memory Hole

1984 (Nineteen Eighty-Four), George Orwell · 1948

A wall slot that sends inconvenient papers off to be burned.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A chute that sends papers to a furnace is a minor office fitting.

Who is paid. A government office pays, and any builder could fit a chute and furnace so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Rewriting History: Systematically altering archives so the past always matches what the rulers now claim.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rewriting History

1984 (Nineteen Eighty-Four), George Orwell · 1948

Systematically altering archives so the past always matches what the rulers now claim.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping every archive in step with what the rulers now say is a records task for the state that orders it, a narrow gain to those rulers and not a new industry.

Who is paid. The state pays, whether its own clerks do the work or a supplier does, just as it pays for the serial-number scheme, and systems for altering records are easy to build, so the firms that already run government records collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Static Field: A jamming field that stops remote listening devices from overhearing a conversation.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Static Field

Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1951

A jamming field that stops remote listening devices from overhearing a conversation.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Jamming remote listening protects a private talk, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Firms with secrets to keep buy it, and many makers could build such a blocker so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electronic Spy: A self-guided hidden gadget that shadows a person and logs what they do.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electronic Spy

Ring Around the Sun, Clifford Simak · 1952

A self-guided hidden gadget that shadows a person and logs what they do.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Spying machines too small to notice would change what police and spy services can learn, enough for an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Spy and police services pay, and once made they can be copied, so the firms already supplying such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spy-Eyes: Miniature flying drones that watch and record people.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spy-Eyes

Manners of the Age, H.B. Fyfe · 1952

Miniature flying drones that watch and record people.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Miniature flying drones that watch and record people change what police and spy services can learn.

Who is paid. Spy and police services pay, and once made it can be copied, so the firms already supplying such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Radiant: A chip placed under the skin of the shoulder that reports where its bearer is and who they are.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Radiant

The Houses of Iszm, Jack Vance · 1954

A chip placed under the skin of the shoulder that reports where its bearer is and who they are.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A chip under the skin that reports place and identity cannot be left behind, so it gives a state a full account of where people are.

Who is paid. Assumes a state requires it; the chips are easy to make, so the firms already supplying identity systems collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Radiant Shield: A device that blocks an implanted tracking chip from being detected or scanned.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Radiant Shield

The Houses of Iszm, Jack Vance · 1954

A device that blocks an implanted tracking chip from being detected or scanned.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Hiding a tracking chip from scanners is useful only to a few who must move unseen.

Who is paid. Assumes hiding a required chip is unlawful for the public, so a spy or police service is the buyer, and the firms already supplying such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tri-Type Record: An identity card holding a person's records along with an exact three-dimensional image of them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tri-Type Record

The Houses of Iszm, Jack Vance · 1954

An identity card holding a person's records along with an exact three-dimensional image of them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An identity card with a full image of its holder is a better card, a convenience for the authority that issues it.

Who is paid. Whoever issues the credential pays, assumed here to be a state, and the firms that already make official papers and registers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Anti-Burglar Installations: Automated defences built into a smart house to repel intruders.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Anti-Burglar Installations

The Angry House, Richard R. Smith · 1955

Automated defences built into a smart house to repel intruders.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Defences that fight off burglars are an extra on a home alarm, and the risk of hurting people keeps the market narrow.

Who is paid. Home owners pay, assuming a house system, and it is easy to copy so the security firms that already fit alarms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Eagle With Camera: A trained bird of prey carrying a camera that beams back what it sees.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Eagle With Camera

Exploration Team, Murray Leinster · 1956

A trained bird of prey carrying a camera that beams back what it sees.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A trained bird with a camera is a scouting curiosity that flying machines do better.

Who is paid. Assuming scouts or armies are the buyers, they pay, and training a bird and fitting a camera can be copied, so the firms already supplying them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of IntruGrab: An automated security setup that detains trespassers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

IntruGrab

The Hunch, Christopher Anvil · 1961

An automated security setup that detains trespassers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A system that holds trespassers is an extra on an alarm, and the risk of hurting people keeps the market narrow.

Who is paid. Home owners pay, assuming a house system, and it is easy to copy so the security firms that already fit alarms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Police Control-Override: Lets police take control of a private car remotely.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Police Control-Override

A Plague of Demons, Keith Laumer · 1965

Lets police take control of a private car remotely.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Stopping a fleeing car from afar is a useful police tool but a narrow one.

Who is paid. Police forces pay, and gear sold to them goes through the firms that already hold their supply contracts.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Fido: A home screen that doubles as news camera and monitoring device.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fido

Riders of the Purple Wage, Philip Jose Farmer · 1967

A home screen that doubles as news camera and monitoring device.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A home screen that also films and watches the household is an industry of its own, as home screens already are.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and screens with cameras are easy to copy, so the firms with brands, factories and broadcast networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Genoprinter: A handheld scanner that takes a living skin sample to confirm someone's genetic identity.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Genoprinter

The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977

A handheld scanner that takes a living skin sample to confirm someone's genetic identity.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Quick, sure identity from a body sample would reshape police work, border checks and hiring, enough for an industry.

Who is paid. Governments pay to run the register and the checks, and many laboratories can make the machines, so existing test suppliers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Transmitter Eyes: Hidden cameras relaying picture and sound from an arena to spectators watching in secret elsewhere.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Transmitter Eyes

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

Hidden cameras relaying picture and sound from an arena to spectators watching in secret elsewhere.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Hidden cameras sending sight and sound to secret watchers are a recording tool for a narrow use.

Who is paid. Assumes a spy or police service is the buyer of hidden cameras; the firms already supplying such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tracer-Bird: A mechanical bird built as an early spy drone.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tracer-Bird

Changeling, Roger Zelazny · 1980

A mechanical bird built as an early spy drone.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A mechanical bird that spies from the air changes what police and spy services can see.

Who is paid. Spy and police services pay, and once made it can be copied, so the firms already supplying such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Public Eye: A hovering camera that drifts freely to watch public spaces.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Public Eye

Friday, Robert Heinlein · 1982

A hovering camera that drifts freely to watch public spaces.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A drifting camera over public spaces changes what police can see, like the other flying watchers.

Who is paid. Spy and police services pay, and once made it can be copied, so the firms already supplying such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Universal Card: One gadget that stands in for all of a person's payment and identification cards.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Universal Card

Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989

One gadget that stands in for all of a person's payment and identification cards.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. One gadget in place of several cards is a convenience, since the cards it stands in for already do the paying and proving.

Who is paid. Whoever issues it pays, assumed here to be banks more than the state, and the gadget is easy to copy, so the firms that already run payment networks and make cards collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Separated At Birth Database: A registry of lost people searchable by which celebrity they look like.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Separated At Birth Database

Virtual Light, William Gibson · 1993

A registry of lost people searchable by which celebrity they look like.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A register of lost people searched by likeness helps in a few searches.

Who is paid. Assumes police keep the register; gathering such pictures is open to many, so the firms already building police records collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tracing Glasses: Eyeglasses that show where hidden tracking beacons are, to follow suspects.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tracing Glasses

Case Closed (Detective Conan), Gosho Aoyama · 1994

Eyeglasses that show where hidden tracking beacons are, to follow suspects.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Glasses that show where tracking beacons are help a few investigators follow suspects.

Who is paid. Police forces pay, and gear sold to them goes through the firms that already hold their supply contracts.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Aerostat Monitor: A small hovering networked drone that watches an area and talks to others of its kind.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Aerostat Monitor

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

A small hovering networked drone that watches an area and talks to others of its kind.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Cheap flying watchers change the cost of policing, border watch and scouting enough to be an industry of their own.

Who is paid. Police forces and armies pay, and since many firms can build such craft the money goes to those already holding security and defence supply contracts.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Jodie Grid: Marker dots worn on the face so cameras can capture its shape and expressions.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Jodie Grid

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

Marker dots worn on the face so cameras can capture its shape and expressions.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Dots that help cameras capture a face are a tool for performers and film makers, a niche.

Who is paid. Studios buy them, and marker dots are simple for anyone to make so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Nanomachine Lidar: A laser ranging system that scans surroundings with light to measure and map them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nanomachine Lidar

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

A laser ranging system that scans surroundings with light to measure and map them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Measuring and mapping what cannot be seen by eye changes the costs of travel, mapping and digging, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Transport, mapping and mining firms buy it, and it can be copied, so established instrument makers with factories and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sky-Eye: A small hovering camera drone that watches over an area.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sky-Eye

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

A small hovering camera drone that watches over an area.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A small hovering camera over an area changes what police and guards can see, like the other flying watchers.

Who is paid. Spy and police services pay, and once made it can be copied, so the firms already supplying such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Wearable White-Noise Generator: A personal gadget emitting noise that spoils any attempt to record the wearer's voice.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wearable White-Noise Generator

Idoru, William Gibson · 1996

A personal gadget emitting noise that spoils any attempt to record the wearer's voice.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Spoiling recordings of your own voice is wanted by a minority who care strongly about privacy.

Who is paid. It is worn by a person and not fitted to a room, so ordinary people are assumed to buy it, and any maker could copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Automated Sentry: A checkpoint unit that recognises people by their faces.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automated Sentry

Darwin's Children, Greg Bear · 2003

A checkpoint unit that recognises people by their faces.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that know faces at a checkpoint change the cost of guarding borders and buildings, enough for an industry.

Who is paid. Governments pay for checkpoints, and face matching is easy to copy, so firms already holding security contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Little Bird: A small remotely flown spy plane that watches from overhead.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Little Bird

Darwin's Children, Greg Bear · 2003

A small remotely flown spy plane that watches from overhead.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Cheap flying watchers change the cost of policing, border watch and scouting enough to be an industry of their own.

Who is paid. Police forces and armies pay, and since many firms can build such craft the money goes to those already holding security and defence supply contracts.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Virtual Panopticon: Combining many data streams so authorities can watch any person closely.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Virtual Panopticon

The Traveler, John Twelve Hawks · 2005

Combining many data streams so authorities can watch any person closely.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Joining many streams of data so that any person can be watched closely changes what a state can know about its people.

Who is paid. The state pays, and the firms that already build and run its computer and records systems collect, since others could build the same.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pocket Scanner: A fictional handheld device thieves use to get into cars in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pocket Scanner

Sagramanda, Alan Dean Foster · 2006

A fictional handheld device thieves use to get into cars in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tool for breaking into cars is useful only to a few agents and investigators.

Who is paid. It is unlawful for the public, so a spy or police service is the buyer, and the firms already supplying such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of CopSpace: A shared digital workspace holding officers' recordings, records and evidence.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

CopSpace

Halting State, Charles Stross · 2007

A shared digital workspace holding officers' recordings, records and evidence.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A shared store of police recordings and evidence saves officers time but is a narrow piece of office software.

Who is paid. Police forces pay, and the software is easy to copy, so firms already supplying police systems collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Lifelog: A continuous recording of a person's daily life, kept automatically.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lifelog

Halting State, Charles Stross · 2007

A continuous recording of a person's daily life, kept automatically.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A full record of a person's life would be wanted by a great many people as memory, proof and protection, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for it, and since recording is easy to copy the firms that already own the storage networks and devices collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gait-Cam: A camera network that identifies people by how they walk.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gait-Cam

Little Brother, Cory Doctorow · 2008

A camera network that identifies people by how they walk.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Cameras that know people by their walk change the cost of watching streets and stations, enough for an industry.

Who is paid. Governments pay for the camera network, and the matching is easy to copy, so firms already holding security contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ugly T-Shirt: Clothing printed with patterns that confuse camera software so the wearer goes unrecognised.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ugly T-Shirt

Zero History, William Gibson · 2010

Clothing printed with patterns that confuse camera software so the wearer goes unrecognised.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Clothing that confuses camera software is wanted by a minority who care strongly about privacy.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and such wear is easy for any maker to copy so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of EYE Program: A vast state data store holding records on ordinary citizens.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

EYE Program

Spark, John Twelve Hawks · 2014

A vast state data store holding records on ordinary citizens.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A state store of records on every citizen changes the cost of policing and tax work across a whole country.

Who is paid. The state pays, and data stores are easy to build, so the firms already running government computer systems collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Freedom ID: An implanted chip under the skin that identifies and tracks its carrier.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Freedom ID

Spark, John Twelve Hawks · 2014

An implanted chip under the skin that identifies and tracks its carrier.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A chip that identifies and tracks every carrier would replace papers and cards and reshape policing across a country.

Who is paid. The state pays to chip its people, and the chips are easy to copy, so firms already making identity documents collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Face Recognition Sunglasses: Eyewear that identifies people in view by checking faces against an online database.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Face Recognition Sunglasses

The Water Knife, Paolo Bacigalupi · 2015

Eyewear that identifies people in view by checking faces against an online database.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Glasses that name the people you see are a convenience for most wearers and a work tool for a few.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy them, and since pictures of faces can be gathered by many, the firms that already hold large stores of named pictures and sell devices collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of VEIL: A wearable that stops cameras' identification software from recognising the wearer's face.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

VEIL

Fall; or, Dodge in Hell: A Novel, Neal Stephenson · 2019

A wearable that stops cameras' identification software from recognising the wearer's face.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A wearable that stops cameras knowing your face is wanted by a minority who care strongly about privacy.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and such wear is easy for any maker to copy so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Abglanz: A face covering that conceals who the wearer is from observers and cameras.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Abglanz

The Mountain in the Sea, Ray Naylor · 2022

A face covering that conceals who the wearer is from observers and cameras.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Hiding your face from cameras is wanted by a minority who care strongly about privacy.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and a face covering is easy for any maker to copy so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Food, agriculture and environment · 31
Illustration of Aeriduct (Rain Maker): A method for making clouds release precipitation on demand.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Aeriduct (Rain Maker)

A Journey In Other Worlds, John Jacob Astor IV · 1894

A method for making clouds release precipitation on demand.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Rain on demand would be worth a great deal to farming and water supply in dry regions, though it only brings down water that is already in the sky.

Who is paid. Rain falls on everyone below, so I assumed governments pay, and spraying clouds is simple enough that many operators could do it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Life-Brew: An alcohol-free drink crafted to taste and feel like wine.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Life-Brew

In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897

An alcohol-free drink crafted to taste and feel like wine.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. This is a small convenience or novelty in what people drink.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and since the recipe is easy to copy the drink brands that already own shelf space collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Nutritious Pellets: A capsule meant to supply a person's full daily nourishment, replacing ordinary meals.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nutritious Pellets

Looking Forward: A Dream of the United States of the Americas in 1999, Arthur Bird · 1899

A capsule meant to supply a person's full daily nourishment, replacing ordinary meals.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a capsule that stands in for a whole day of meals would be an industry of its own and would change how armies, travellers and the hungry are fed, though I assumed most people would still eat ordinary meals for pleasure.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and I assumed the recipe can be copied once it is known, so the food and pharmacy brands with shop space collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Food Tablet: A single tablet delivering a complete day's nutrition without eating regular food.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Food Tablet

John Jones's Dollar, Harry Stephen Keeler · 1915

A single tablet delivering a complete day's nutrition without eating regular food.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a tablet that stands in for a whole day of meals would be an industry of its own and would change how armies, travellers and the hungry are fed, though I assumed most people would still eat ordinary meals for pleasure.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and I assumed the recipe can be copied once it is known, so the food and pharmacy brands with shop space collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Surta: A cheap engineered ingredient that can be processed into many kinds of manufactured food.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Surta

The Great Dome of Mercury, Leo Zagat · 1932

A cheap engineered ingredient that can be processed into many kinds of manufactured food.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A cheap base that can be turned into many kinds of food would lower the cost of eating for nearly everyone.

Who is paid. Households buy it as ordinary groceries, and since the method can be copied, the food makers who already own plants, brands and shop space collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Wine Pellets: Wine dehydrated into small tablets that store easily and can be turned back into a drink.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wine Pellets

Redmask of the Outlands, Nat Schachner · 1934

Wine dehydrated into small tablets that store easily and can be turned back into a drink.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Alcohol in dry form is a convenience for carrying and storing a drink people already have.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and drying a drink is easy to copy, so the drink brands that already own shelf space collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Thermide: A powder dropped into water heats it to boiling at once, killing germs and making it safe to drink.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Thermide

Parasite Planet, Stanley G. Weinbaum · 1935

A powder dropped into water heats it to boiling at once, killing germs and making it safe to drink.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A powder that boils water at once is a handy aid for travellers and people without safe water.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and I assumed the chemical is simple enough for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Synthite Food: Dense packaged rations made for people on long space journeys.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Synthite Food

Planet of Eternal Night, John W. Campbell · 1939

Dense packaged rations made for people on long space journeys.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Compact rations are a convenience for people who cannot carry or cook ordinary food.

Who is paid. I assumed armies and state expeditions are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold their supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mind Control Genetically Modified Food: Crops altered at the genetic level to yield chosen blends of taste.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mind Control Genetically Modified Food

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

Crops altered at the genetic level to yield chosen blends of taste.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Crops bred for chosen blends of taste are a pleasant variety, not a change in the cost of food.

Who is paid. Growers buy the plants, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the seed houses and nurseries that already hold stock, land and sales channels collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Flavor-Fix Rheostat: A control that tunes the taste of machine-cooked meals until it is just right.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flavor-Fix Rheostat

The Jester, William Tenn · 1951

A control that tunes the taste of machine-cooked meals until it is just right.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A dial for the taste of machine-cooked meals is a kitchen convenience.

Who is paid. I assumed it is a home cooker, which households buy, and the feature is easy to copy, so the appliance makers with brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Chlorella Plantation: A tall tower farm that grows algae as a staple food.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chlorella Plantation

The Space Merchants, Frederik Pohl (w/CM Kornbluth · 1952

A tall tower farm that grows algae as a staple food.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. The story makes this the staple that people live on, so like any food made without fields it would free the feeding of people from land and weather; the real thing stayed a niche and I judged the promise.

Who is paid. Households buy it inside ordinary food, and tanks of microbes are easy to copy, so the food makers with plants and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Coffiest: A branded drink laced with a habit-forming additive so customers keep buying it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Coffiest

The Space Merchants, Frederik Pohl (w/CM Kornbluth · 1952

A branded drink laced with a habit-forming additive so customers keep buying it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. To the drinker it is just one more drink, and the habit it forms is a harm and not a gain.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and I assumed the additive is a secret that keeps customers tied to one brand, so its owner keeps what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Flavor-Capsule: A tablet dropped into water to make a tasty drink.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flavor-Capsule

Foundation and Empire, Isaac Asimov · 1952

A tablet dropped into water to make a tasty drink.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. This is a small convenience or novelty in what people drink.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and since the recipe is easy to copy the drink brands that already own shelf space collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Soot-Extractor Nostril Plugs (Antisoot Plugs): Little filters pushed into the nose to keep smog out of the lungs.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Soot-Extractor Nostril Plugs (Antisoot Plugs)

The Space Merchants, Frederik Pohl (w/CM Kornbluth · 1952

Little filters pushed into the nose to keep smog out of the lungs.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Nose filters are a cheap personal aid against dirty air.

Who is paid. People buy them for themselves, and a small filter is easy for any firm to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Big Flue: Giant furnaces that helicopters feed directly with loads to burn.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Big Flue

Fahrenheit 451, Ray Bradbury · 1953

Giant furnaces that helicopters feed directly with loads to burn.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A big furnace fed from the air is one more way of burning waste, a modest gain over ordinary plants.

Who is paid. I assumed cities pay for waste burning, and the waste firms that already hold the city contracts and sites collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Spatial-Postal Card: An edible postcard sent to soldiers from home.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spatial-Postal Card

Bill the Galactic Hero, Harry Harrison · 1965

An edible postcard sent to soldiers from home.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A postcard you can eat is a novelty.

Who is paid. Families buy them to send, and printing on something edible is easy for anyone, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Syrup Sac: A pouch supplying concentrated nourishment to alien servant workers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Syrup Sac

The Last Castle, Jack Vance · 1967

A pouch supplying concentrated nourishment to alien servant workers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A pouch of feed for servant workers is a plain supply item.

Who is paid. Unlike rations for armies, here I assumed the masters who keep the workers buy it, and a sweet feed is easy for anyone to make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Plastic-Eating Bacteria: Altered microbes able to break down rubber and plastics.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plastic-Eating Bacteria

The Andromeda Strain, Michael Crichton · 1969

Altered microbes able to break down rubber and plastics.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Microbes that break down plastic and rubber would change the cost of dealing with waste.

Who is paid. Waste firms and councils' contractors buy the cultures, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the laboratories and waste firms that already hold cultures, plant and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sonic Curtain (Sound Lock): An underwater sound barrier that keeps large sea creatures away.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sonic Curtain (Sound Lock)

My Name is Legion, Roger Zelazny · 1976

An underwater sound barrier that keeps large sea creatures away.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping animals out with sound is a niche tool for a few sites.

Who is paid. Owners of sea sites such as fish farms and harbours buy it, and underwater loudspeaker gear is easy for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Vaporator: A machine that pulls water out of the air for growing crops.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vaporator

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

A machine that pulls water out of the air for growing crops.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Water drawn from dry air for crops would open up dry lands to farming, which is worth an industry.

Who is paid. Here farms buy it to water crops, not households to drink, and I assumed the gear is simple enough that many workshops can make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Life Bank: A vault preserving genetic material from Earth's living things.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Life Bank

The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977

A vault preserving genetic material from Earth's living things.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A store of living things is insurance against loss, valued by the public but not something that changes daily life.

Who is paid. No visitor or user can be charged, so governments pay, and I assumed any capable builder can put one up, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sonabarrier: A sound-based barrier that stops birds from entering protected zones.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sonabarrier

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

A sound-based barrier that stops birds from entering protected zones.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping animals out with sound is a niche tool for a few sites.

Who is paid. Site owners such as farms, ports and airfields buy it, and loudspeaker gear is easy for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Zoo Fences: An animal enclosure barrier formed by a moat of corrosive liquid.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Zoo Fences

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

An animal enclosure barrier formed by a moat of corrosive liquid.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A barrier of corrosive liquid is one more way to fence a zoo.

Who is paid. Zoos buy it, and a ditch filled with a harsh liquid is something any builder can supply, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Scop: Edible protein cultivated from microbes in large tanks.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Scop

Islands in the Net, Bruce Sterling · 1988

Edible protein cultivated from microbes in large tanks.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A cheap protein grown in tanks would lower the cost of one part of the diet, as tank meat would, but the description does not make it the staple people live on.

Who is paid. Households buy it inside ordinary food, and tanks of microbes are easy to copy, so the food makers with plants and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Home Termite Habitat: A kitchen appliance for farming insects at home as food.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Home Termite Habitat

Natulife, David Brin · 1994

A kitchen appliance for farming insects at home as food.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Raising insects for food in the kitchen is a niche taste.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and a box for insects is easy for any appliance firm to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spook: A bottled plain drink with flavouring released by turning its lid.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spook

SOLACE, Jeff Noon · 1998

A bottled plain drink with flavouring released by turning its lid.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. This is a small convenience or novelty in what people drink.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and since the recipe is easy to copy the drink brands that already own shelf space collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Weather Pod: A restricted instrument package used by planet scientists to study weather.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Weather Pod

Dune: House Harkonnen, Brian Herbert · 2001

A restricted instrument package used by planet scientists to study weather.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A package of weather instruments is a tool for a small group of scientists.

Who is paid. I assumed state science bodies buy it, and instruments like these can be made by many firms, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Allswell: A substance mixed into meals that makes people who eat it calmer and more placid.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Allswell

Anathem, Neal Stephenson · 2008

A substance mixed into meals that makes people who eat it calmer and more placid.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a drug put into meals to make people placid and it is banned, so nobody may buy it.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller gains.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Darknet Farm: A community farm run on networked computer systems to keep its agriculture sustainable.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Darknet Farm

Freedom, Daniel Suarez · 2010

A community farm run on networked computer systems to keep its agriculture sustainable.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Running one community farm by networked software is a modest gain in care for the land.

Who is paid. The farm itself pays for the system, and farm software and sensors can be supplied by many firms, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Clearsac: A simple pouch that purifies dirty or used water well enough to drink again.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Clearsac

The Water Knife, Paolo Bacigalupi · 2015

A simple pouch that purifies dirty or used water well enough to drink again.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A pouch that makes dirty water drinkable is a cheap personal aid, precious where water is scarce but a small purchase.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and a simple filter pouch can be made by many firms, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Public Urine Collection: Public toilets in enclosed cities that gather waste for water and nutrient recovery.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Public Urine Collection

The Water Knife, Paolo Bacigalupi · 2015

Public toilets in enclosed cities that gather waste for water and nutrient recovery.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Gathering waste from public toilets to recover water and plant food is a modest saving for a dry city.

Who is paid. The city pays for its own plumbing, and the pipes and treatment gear can be supplied by many firms, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Home and everyday life · 106
Illustration of Machine Apartment: A sealed personal room where every need is delivered by automated services so its occupant never leaves.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Machine Apartment

The Machine Stops, E.M. Forster · 1909

A sealed personal room where every need is delivered by automated services so its occupant never leaves.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A room that delivers every need by machine would free its occupant from housework and errands, whatever the story thinks of the life that results.

Who is paid. Occupants pay for the room and its services, and no single firm could keep the idea to itself, so the appliance makers, builders and delivery networks that already reach every home would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Electric Diaper: A nappy that signals when it needs changing.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electric Diaper

The Psychophonic Nurse, David H. Keller · 1928

A nappy that signals when it needs changing.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A nappy that says when it is wet saves parents some checking.

Who is paid. Parents buy it, and the signal is easy to add, so the nappy brands that already fill the shop shelves collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sunparlor: A huge glass-roofed promenade inside a giant building where residents can bask in daylight indoors.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sunparlor

The Cubic City, Louis Tucker, D.D. · 1929

A huge glass-roofed promenade inside a giant building where residents can bask in daylight indoors.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A glass-roofed promenade is a pleasant shared space inside a giant building.

Who is paid. The building owner pays for it, and anyone can build a glass roof, so the developers who already hold the building collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Iron Inlay Plates: Dishes with embedded iron held to a magnetised dining table so they stay put.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Iron Inlay Plates

A Daring Trip To Mars, Max Valier · 1931

Dishes with embedded iron held to a magnetised dining table so they stay put.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Plates that stay put on the table matter only where things slide about, as on a ship in flight.

Who is paid. I assumed travellers and crews buy them, and a plate with iron in it is simple for anyone to make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Centrifugal Bumble-Puppy: A spinning-machine ball game for children, designed so playing it means buying lots of equipment.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Centrifugal Bumble-Puppy

Brave New World, Aldous Huxley · 1932

A spinning-machine ball game for children, designed so playing it means buying lots of equipment.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a children's game, valued as play.

Who is paid. Parents pay, and though the game is built to need a lot of gear, any toy maker could make that gear, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Checker-City: An urban layout that alternates green park squares with built blocks in a grid, spreading greenery evenly across town.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Checker-City

The Star-Roamers, Edmond Hamilton · 1933

An urban layout that alternates green park squares with built blocks in a grid, spreading greenery evenly across town.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Spreading parks evenly through a town is a pleasant plan, but it is a layout and not a new thing to sell.

Who is paid. A city government pays to lay the town out this way, and the plan is free to copy, so the ordinary builders and landscapers who do the work collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mudshoes: Wide footwear that spreads the wearer's weight so they can walk across soft, sticky ground without sinking.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mudshoes

Parasite Planet, Stanley G. Weinbaum · 1935

Wide footwear that spreads the wearer's weight so they can walk across soft, sticky ground without sinking.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Shoes for crossing soft ground serve a narrow group of walkers and workers.

Who is paid. Households buy them and any footwear maker can produce wide shoes, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Luxobe Crystals: Crystals that glow to light up their surroundings.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Luxobe Crystals

Moon Crystals, J. Harvey Haggard · 1936

Crystals that glow to light up their surroundings.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description gives only a soft glow, so I judged them as lamps for decoration and not as a way to light everything without power.

Who is paid. People buy them for the home, and I assumed the crystals are dug from a few places and cannot be made, so whoever owns those places keeps what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Smoke Filter: Cleans tobacco smoke from a sealed cabin's air so crews can light up.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Smoke Filter

Misfit, Robert Heinlein · 1939

Cleans tobacco smoke from a sealed cabin's air so crews can light up.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Clearing tobacco smoke from sealed cabin air is a narrow comfort for crews.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy it and many firms can make air filters, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Asbestos Sunshade: A heat-resistant screen carried or worn to block harsh sunlight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Asbestos Sunshade

The Achilles Heel, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1940

A heat-resistant screen carried or worn to block harsh sunlight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A shade against harsh sun is a simple comfort.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and a heat-proof screen is easy for anyone to make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Radium-Action Lighter: A pocket igniter for cigarettes and pipes powered by a radioactive source.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Radium-Action Lighter

The Worlds of Tomorrow, Manly Wade Wellman · 1940

A pocket igniter for cigarettes and pipes powered by a radioactive source.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lighter that never needs fuel is a small convenience for smokers.

Who is paid. Smokers buy it, and I assumed the radioactive source is as freely sold as the lighter itself, so any maker of small gadgets could copy it and no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Refreshing Chamber: An automated washing room that takes over every job of the ordinary bathroom.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Refreshing Chamber

Coventry, Robert Heinlein · 1940

An automated washing room that takes over every job of the ordinary bathroom.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A room that does every bathroom job by itself is a comfort, since people already wash without it.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and it is easy to copy, so the firms that already make bathroom fittings collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Atmospherics Switchboard: A control panel that fills each guest room with the air mix of that guest's home world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atmospherics Switchboard

Lie on the Beam, John Victor Peterson · 1941

A control panel that fills each guest room with the air mix of that guest's home world.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Matching room air to each guest's home world serves only hotels with visitors from other worlds.

Who is paid. Hotels buy it, and the firms that already fit heating and air systems into buildings could add it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Fresher: An all-in-one hygiene booth meant to replace the shower, basin and toilet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fresher

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

An all-in-one hygiene booth meant to replace the shower, basin and toilet.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Putting the shower, basin and toilet in a single booth saves space but does what bathrooms already do.

Who is paid. Home owners buy it, and it is easy to copy, so the makers and fitters of bathroom fixtures collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Capillotomer: A robot that shaves a person's face automatically without a human barber.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Capillotomer

Beyond This Horizon, Robert Heinlein · 1942

A robot that shaves a person's face automatically without a human barber.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An automatic shave saves a little time each morning.

Who is paid. I assumed a home device, so people buy it for themselves, and other appliance makers could copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Radiation Garment: Everyday clothing that shields ordinary people from some harmful radiation.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Radiation Garment

Waldo, Robert Heinlein · 1942

Everyday clothing that shields ordinary people from some harmful radiation.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Clothing that blocks some harmful radiation matters only where such radiation is common.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and once the cloth exists any clothing maker could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Zero-G Ashtray: A tray that traps ash and smoke where there is no gravity to hold them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Zero-G Ashtray

Waldo, Robert Heinlein · 1942

A tray that traps ash and smoke where there is no gravity to hold them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An ashtray that works without gravity serves the few who smoke in space.

Who is paid. Those smokers buy it and any maker can build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pneumo-Slacks: Inflatable trousers that pad out the wearer's legs to seem more muscular.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pneumo-Slacks

The Proud Robot, Lewis Padgett · 1943

Inflatable trousers that pad out the wearer's legs to seem more muscular.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Trousers that pad the legs to look muscular are a vanity item.

Who is paid. Households buy them and any clothing maker can copy them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Self-Opening Box: A container whose lid opens by itself without anyone touching it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Self-Opening Box

Child's Play, William Tenn · 1947

A container whose lid opens by itself without anyone touching it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lid that opens by itself is a minor convenience.

Who is paid. Households buy it and anyone can make such a box, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Fresher: An automated cubicle that washes, grooms and tidies a person.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fresher

Gulf, Robert Heinlein · 1949

An automated cubicle that washes, grooms and tidies a person.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A booth that washes and grooms you saves some time, but it does what bathrooms already do.

Who is paid. Home owners buy it, and it is easy to copy, so the makers and fitters of bathroom fixtures collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Painted Respirator Masks: Breathing masks that children personalise with their own painted designs.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Painted Respirator Masks

Red Planet, Robert Heinlein · 1949

Breathing masks that children personalise with their own painted designs.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Decorating a breathing mask is a small pleasure added to gear people already own.

Who is paid. Households buy the masks and paint, and any maker can supply them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Shari: A mesh garment that doubles as a carrying net and other tools.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Shari

Sacred Martian Pig (Idris' Pig), Margaret St. Clair · 1949

A mesh garment that doubles as a carrying net and other tools.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A mesh garment that also serves as a carrying net is a handy piece of clothing.

Who is paid. Households buy it and anyone can make mesh clothing, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Happylife Home: A fully automated house that feeds, cleans and entertains the family living in it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Happylife Home

The Illustrated Man, Ray Bradbury · 1951

A fully automated house that feeds, cleans and entertains the family living in it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A house that feeds, cleans and entertains the family would free most households from daily housework.

Who is paid. Families buy it, and no single firm could keep the idea to itself, so the appliance makers and house builders who already reach every home would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pail of Air: A small bucket used to fetch frozen atmosphere so a family can keep breathing.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pail of Air

A Pail of Air, Fritz Leiber · 1951

A small bucket used to fetch frozen atmosphere so a family can keep breathing.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a plain bucket, however vital its errand is in the story.

Who is paid. Households would buy it and anyone can make a bucket, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Self-Adjusting Furniture: Chairs and beds that reshape themselves to fit whoever uses them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Self-Adjusting Furniture

First He Died (Time and Again), Clifford Simak · 1951

Chairs and beds that reshape themselves to fit whoever uses them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Chairs and beds that fit whoever uses them add comfort to furniture people already buy.

Who is paid. Households buy them and any furniture maker can copy them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Hydropathic bed: A warm cushioned mattress filled with a fluid softer than a waterbed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hydropathic bed

The Demolished Man, Alfred Bester · 1952

A warm cushioned mattress filled with a fluid softer than a waterbed.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A softer, warmer mattress is a comfort.

Who is paid. Sleepers buy it, and any bedding maker could fill a mattress with a soft fluid.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Photo Crystal (Cube): A small block you hold that shows a stored photograph.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Photo Crystal (Cube)

Foundation and Empire, Isaac Asimov · 1952

A small block you hold that shows a stored photograph.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A block that shows a stored photograph is a keepsake.

Who is paid. Households buy it and many firms can make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spray-On Clothing Web: A fibrous base layer sprayed onto the body that a designer then shapes into a garment.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spray-On Clothing Web

Abercrombie Station, Jack Vance · 1952

A fibrous base layer sprayed onto the body that a designer then shapes into a garment.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sprayed base layer that a designer shapes into a garment is a novelty way to dress.

Who is paid. I assumed it is sold as a can that is used up with each wearing and bought again, so although the spray is easy to copy, the brands that already hold the shop shelves collect, as with the skin sprays.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Spray-On Gloves: Elegant long gloves applied as a spray instead of pulled on.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spray-On Gloves

Abercrombie Station, Jack Vance · 1952

Elegant long gloves applied as a spray instead of pulled on.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Gloves applied as a spray are a novelty way to dress.

Who is paid. I assumed it is sold as a can that is used up with each wearing and bought again, so although the spray is easy to copy, the brands that already hold the shop shelves collect, as with the skin sprays.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Buttered Toast Robot: A kitchen machine that makes toast and spreads the butter on it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Buttered Toast Robot

Fahrenheit 451, Ray Bradbury · 1953

A kitchen machine that makes toast and spreads the butter on it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Having toast buttered for you saves a moment at breakfast.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and it is a simple kitchen machine any appliance maker could build.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Dermal-Mist Spray: A fine skin spray that cools and refreshes the user.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dermal-Mist Spray

Prominent Author, Philip K. Dick · 1954

A fine skin spray that cools and refreshes the user.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cooling mist gives a brief moment of freshness, which is less than lasting relief from heat.

Who is paid. Shoppers buy it, and the spray is easy to copy, so the toiletry brands that already hold the shop shelves collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Finger Jet Bath: A luxury bathtub whose many fine water jets massage the bather.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Finger Jet Bath

The Houses of Iszm, Jack Vance · 1954

A luxury bathtub whose many fine water jets massage the bather.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A massaging bath is a luxury comfort.

Who is paid. Home owners buy it, and the jets are easy to copy, so the makers and fitters of bathroom fixtures collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sceneshifter: A self-running display that shows an ever-changing sequence of chance images.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sceneshifter

Last of the Masters, Philip K. Dick · 1954

A self-running display that shows an ever-changing sequence of chance images.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A display of ever-changing chance images is an ornament.

Who is paid. Households buy it and many firms can make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Solar-Powered Ball: A rolling plaything that moves about by itself using sunlight for energy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solar-Powered Ball

Dawn of the Demigods, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1954

A rolling plaything that moves about by itself using sunlight for energy.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A ball that rolls about on sunlight is a toy.

Who is paid. Households buy it and any toy maker can build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Disposal-Safe: A secure box that holds papers and can destroy them when needed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Disposal-Safe

Exploration Team, Murray Leinster · 1956

A secure box that holds papers and can destroy them when needed.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A safe that can destroy its papers serves the few who hold secrets.

Who is paid. Firms and offices with secrets buy it, and any safe maker can add a way to burn or shred the contents.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Grass Carpet: Living turf grown indoors as a floor covering.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Grass Carpet

The Sirens of Titan, Kurt Vonnegut, Jr. · 1959

Living turf grown indoors as a floor covering.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Real grass underfoot indoors is a matter of taste.

Who is paid. Home owners buy it, and any grower of turf can supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Magnetically Floating Furniture: Chairs and beds held at the right height by magnetic forces instead of legs.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magnetically Floating Furniture

The Sirens of Titan, Kurt Vonnegut, Jr. · 1959

Chairs and beds held at the right height by magnetic forces instead of legs.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Chairs and beds that float without legs are showpieces.

Who is paid. Home owners buy them, and strong magnets are available to any furniture maker.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mark IV Door Keeping Robot: A robot that answers the front door and checks callers before letting them in.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mark IV Door Keeping Robot

The Man Who Could Not Stop, A. Bertram Chandler · 1959

A robot that answers the front door and checks callers before letting them in.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Screening callers at the door is a handy convenience for a home, not a need.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and many firms could build a door-answering machine, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Toy Testing Dummy: A child-sized stand-in used to check whether suspicious toys are safe.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Toy Testing Dummy

War Game, Philip K. Dick · 1959

A child-sized stand-in used to check whether suspicious toys are safe.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A child-sized stand-in for testing suspect toys serves a few safety inspectors.

Who is paid. I assumed government inspectors buy it, so the firms that already supply testing gear to them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Dermal Spray: A mist that tints the skin a chosen colour.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dermal Spray

Dr. Futurity, Philip K. Dick · 1960

A mist that tints the skin a chosen colour.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Tinting the skin a chosen colour is a matter of fashion.

Who is paid. Shoppers buy it, and the spray is easy to copy, so the cosmetics brands that already hold the shop shelves collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Living Grass Carpet: Real turf grown indoors as floor covering in place of a rug.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Living Grass Carpet

Stranger in a Strange Land, Robert Heinlein · 1961

Real turf grown indoors as floor covering in place of a rug.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Real grass underfoot indoors is a matter of taste.

Who is paid. Home owners buy it, and any grower of turf can supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Reading Machine: A projector that throws pages of text overhead or onto a screen for comfortable reading.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Reading Machine

Stranger in a Strange Land, Robert Heinlein · 1961

A projector that throws pages of text overhead or onto a screen for comfortable reading.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Throwing a page overhead for comfortable reading is a convenience.

Who is paid. Households buy it and any projector maker can build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sky Ceiling: Large display panels overhead show a changing picture of the sky indoors.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sky Ceiling

Return from the Stars, Stanislaw Lem · 1961

Large display panels overhead show a changing picture of the sky indoors.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An overhead picture of the sky is a comfort for indoor spaces.

Who is paid. Households and building owners buy it, and overhead screens of that size are easy to copy but come out of costly screen factories, so the electronics makers that already own them collect, as with the wall-sized television.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Celestial Armamentarium: A small crystal model showing the stars and planets around the home world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Celestial Armamentarium

The Dragon Masters, Jack Vance · 1962

A small crystal model showing the stars and planets around the home world.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A crystal model of the nearby stars is an ornament and a teaching aid.

Who is paid. People buy it for the home, and any skilled craftsman or model maker could produce such a thing.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Senso-Cells: Household sensors that learn occupants' traits so the home can adapt to them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Senso-Cells

The Thousand Dreams of Stellavista, J.G. Ballard · 1962

Household sensors that learn occupants' traits so the home can adapt to them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Sensors that let a home learn and adapt to its occupants are the working part of the mood-reading house, a feature that does not make housing cheaper or more plentiful.

Who is paid. Households buy them with the house, and once shown they could be copied, so home builders who already hold land and buyers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tand: A contemplative metal sculpture with ritual significance for initiates.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tand

The Dragon Masters, Jack Vance · 1962

A contemplative metal sculpture with ritual significance for initiates.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sculpture for contemplation matters only to the few initiates who value it.

Who is paid. Those initiates pay for it and any metalworker can make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Manual Closet: An ordinary wardrobe where clothes are sorted and hung by hand.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Manual Closet

Clans of the Alphane Moon, Philip K. Dick · 1964

An ordinary wardrobe where clothes are sorted and hung by hand.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is an ordinary wardrobe, a plain piece of household furniture.

Who is paid. Households buy it and any furniture maker can build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Nipple-Assist: A small wearable gadget with several functions.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nipple-Assist

Lies, Inc., Philip K. Dick · 1964

A small wearable gadget with several functions.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A small wearable gadget with several functions is a convenience; the description says little more.

Who is paid. Households buy it and many firms can make a small gadget, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Undersea Restaurant: A dining venue built wholly beneath the ocean surface.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Undersea Restaurant

The Star King, Jack Vance · 1964

A dining venue built wholly beneath the ocean surface.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Dining beneath the sea is a treat for visitors.

Who is paid. Diners pay for the meal, and I assumed others could build the same on another coast, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Catchpocket: A pouch in a survival suit that holds recovered water.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Catchpocket

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A pouch in a survival suit that holds recovered water.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A pouch for saved water matters only to people crossing deserts.

Who is paid. Desert travellers buy it as part of their kit, and a pouch is easy for anyone to make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Commuter Cooling Unit: A carry-along air conditioner for people travelling to work.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Commuter Cooling Unit

The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A carry-along air conditioner for people travelling to work.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A cooler you can carry through the heat would matter to everyone who works or travels outdoors in hot places.

Who is paid. Commuters buy it, and I assume the cooling parts are easy to copy, so many makers would compete the gain away.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Doorseal: A portable plastic seal that keeps moisture inside tents.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Doorseal

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A portable plastic seal that keeps moisture inside tents.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping moisture inside a tent matters only to people living in deserts.

Who is paid. Desert travellers buy it, and a plastic seal is easy for anyone to make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Filt-Plug: Nose plugs that trap moisture from breath.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Filt-Plug

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

Nose plugs that trap moisture from breath.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Catching the moisture in your breath matters only to people in deserts.

Who is paid. Desert travellers buy them, and nose plugs are simple for anyone to make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Jubba Cloak: A versatile desert garment worn widely on a dry planet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Jubba Cloak

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A versatile desert garment worn widely on a dry planet.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A useful cloak for desert life is everyday clothing for people in dry places.

Who is paid. Desert dwellers buy it, and any tailor can make a cloak.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sandsnork: A snorkel-like tube that feeds air into a tent buried by blowing sand.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sandsnork

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A snorkel-like tube that feeds air into a tent buried by blowing sand.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An air tube for a buried tent is survival gear for a few desert travellers.

Who is paid. Travellers buy it and anyone can make a tube, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sietch: A fortified cave community with its own water reserves in a vast desert.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sietch

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A fortified cave community with its own water reserves in a vast desert.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A fortified cave settlement with stored water serves a few desert communities.

Who is paid. The people who live there pay by building it themselves, and anyone with a cave and labour can do the same, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Watertube: A tube routing recovered water inside a desert survival suit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Watertube

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A tube routing recovered water inside a desert survival suit.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tube carrying recovered water is a part of a desert suit that matters to the few who need such suits.

Who is paid. Desert dwellers and travellers buy it with the suit, and anyone can make a tube, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hush Hood: A hood that blocks sound so conversations cannot be overheard.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hush Hood

The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966

A hood that blocks sound so conversations cannot be overheard.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A hood that keeps talk private is handy for sensitive calls, but it is a convenience.

Who is paid. Offices and people with private business buy it, and a sound-blocking hood is simple for many makers to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sensory-Syrynx: An elaborate performance instrument an artist plays to create multisensory spectacles.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sensory-Syrynx

Nova, Samuel R. Delany · 1968

An elaborate performance instrument an artist plays to create multisensory spectacles.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An instrument for multisensory shows serves a few performers.

Who is paid. Performers buy it, and I assumed instrument makers could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sun Goggles: Eyewear whose lenses dim selectively where glare is strongest.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sun Goggles

Grendel, Larry Niven · 1968

Eyewear whose lenses dim selectively where glare is strongest.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Lenses that dim where glare is strongest are a better pair of sunglasses.

Who is paid. Households buy them and many eyewear makers can copy them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Geriatric Rooming-House: Housing designed specifically for very old residents.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Geriatric Rooming-House

Galactic Pot-Healer, Philip K. Dick · 1969

Housing designed specifically for very old residents.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Housing built for the very old is an industry of its own wherever many people live long.

Who is paid. Old people and their families pay, and such homes are easy to copy, so those who own suitable buildings and land collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Multi-function Living Room: A compact room with many uses folded into one space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Multi-function Living Room

Death by Ecstasy, Larry Niven · 1969

A compact room with many uses folded into one space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Folding many uses into a compact room is a convenience for people short of space.

Who is paid. Households pay for it and any builder or furniture maker can do it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Toll Door: An apartment door that demands a coin payment before it will open.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Toll Door

Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969

An apartment door that demands a coin payment before it will open.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A door that charges a coin to open is a way for a landlord to collect small fees.

Who is paid. I assumed landlords buy it and that any lock maker can build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Inert-Wear: Ordinary clothing of non-living fibre that does not change or respond.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Inert-Wear

Say Goodby to the Wind, J.G. Ballard · 1970

Ordinary clothing of non-living fibre that does not change or respond.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. This is plain clothing that does not change, and in the story it is the dull choice beside living fabrics, but plain clothing still dresses most people.

Who is paid. Everyone buys clothes for themselves, and ordinary cloth can be made by a great many firms, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sound Deadener: A device that quiets loud noise made by different creatures nearby.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sound Deadener

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

A device that quiets loud noise made by different creatures nearby.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Truly quieting loud neighbours would be wanted in most homes, which is worth an industry; I assumed it quiets a whole home and not just a patch.

Who is paid. The noise described comes from neighbours, so households buy it, and once the method of opposing noise is known many firms could make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Rotating House: A family home on a central pivot so it can turn to face any direction.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rotating House

The Godmakers, Frank Herbert · 1972

A family home on a central pivot so it can turn to face any direction.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A house that turns to face any direction is a novelty for a few buyers.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and a pivot is easy to copy, so the builders and developers who already hold land and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Selectacol: A device that suggests colour schemes to furnish a room automatically.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Selectacol

The Godmakers, Frank Herbert · 1972

A device that suggests colour schemes to furnish a room automatically.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Suggesting colour schemes for a room saves a little thought when decorating.

Who is paid. Households buy it and many firms can make such a device, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Frictionless Cups: Drinking vessels coated so liquid never clings to them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Frictionless Cups

Protector, Larry Niven · 1973

Drinking vessels coated so liquid never clings to them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cup that never holds a drop is a little easier to clean.

Who is paid. People buy them for the kitchen, and I assume the coating can be copied by other makers once it is on sale.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Frictionless Toilet: A toilet bowl so slick it needs no water to stay clean.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Frictionless Toilet

The Mote in God's Eye, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1974

A toilet bowl so slick it needs no water to stay clean.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Unlike a slick cup, a toilet that needs no water would save a great deal of water and piping, and would bring clean toilets to dry places.

Who is paid. Home owners buy it, and I assume the coating can be copied, so the firms that already make and fit bathroom fixtures collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Coley Group: A style of music performed by dancing inside a field of low-power microwaves.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Coley Group

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

A style of music performed by dancing inside a field of low-power microwaves.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a style of music and dance, enjoyed by its fans.

Who is paid. Fans pay to watch or to play, and nobody can own a style of music, so any performer may take it up.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Inflatable Church: A place of worship whose altar is a blow-up projection screen.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Inflatable Church

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

A place of worship whose altar is a blow-up projection screen.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A blow-up screen for an altar is a cheap fitting for a place of worship.

Who is paid. Churches pay for it as organisations, and inflatable screens are easy for anyone to make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of 3D 'Chess' Game Board: A tabletop display that projects game pieces as moving three-dimensional figures.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

3D 'Chess' Game Board

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

A tabletop display that projects game pieces as moving three-dimensional figures.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A game table with moving solid-looking pieces is a pleasant toy, not a need.

Who is paid. Families buy it as a game, and once the display exists many toy and screen makers could build the same thing.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Moon Moth: A modest, shy-looking mask signalling low social standing.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Moon Moth

The Moon Moth, Jack Vance · 1976

A modest, shy-looking mask signalling low social standing.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A mask that signals low standing is a piece of costume with a niche use.

Who is paid. Households buy it and any craftsman can make a mask, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Stimic: A wind instrument of three pipes played by squeezing an air bag.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stimic

The Moon Moth, Jack Vance · 1976

A wind instrument of three pipes played by squeezing an air bag.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A pipe instrument played by squeezing a bag serves a few musicians.

Who is paid. Musicians buy it and any instrument maker can build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Flexible Sprung Boots: Footwear that bends softly on normal strides but rebounds like a spring under heavy impact.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flexible Sprung Boots

Inherit the Stars, James P. Hogan · 1977

Footwear that bends softly on normal strides but rebounds like a spring under heavy impact.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Boots that soften a hard landing are a modest gain for walkers and workers.

Who is paid. Wearers buy them, and the springy sole can be copied, so any of the many footwear makers can sell them and no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Swimming Tubes: Water-filled passages linking buildings so aquatic residents can travel between them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Swimming Tubes

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

Water-filled passages linking buildings so aquatic residents can travel between them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Water passages between buildings serve only residents who swim, which is a niche.

Who is paid. I assumed a city pays for them as public works, so the building firms that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Self-Satisfied Door: An automatic door with a smug, chatty personality.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Self-Satisfied Door

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams · 1979

An automatic door with a smug, chatty personality.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A chatty personality adds nothing useful to an automatic door.

Who is paid. Building owners buy doors, and the feature is easy to copy, so firms that already fit doors collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Watercouch: A sofa using a water bladder for cushioning.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Watercouch

Beyond the Blue Event Horizon, Frederik Pohl · 1980

A sofa using a water bladder for cushioning.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sofa cushioned with water is a matter of comfort and taste.

Who is paid. Households buy it and any furniture maker can produce it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Gravity Whip: An amusement ride designed to give passengers moments of weightlessness.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gravity Whip

Dream Park, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes · 1981

An amusement ride designed to give passengers moments of weightlessness.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A moment of weightlessness on a ride is a thrill for visitors.

Who is paid. Amusement parks buy the ride, and any ride builder could copy the design, so the parks and their visitors keep the gain.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Coffin Rack Capsule Hotel: Lodgings made of tiny sleeping pods stacked in rows.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Coffin Rack Capsule Hotel

The Science Fiction Yearbook (ed. Jerry Pournelle), William Gibson · 1984

Lodgings made of tiny sleeping pods stacked in rows.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cheap pod to sleep in suits travellers who want only a bed.

Who is paid. Travellers pay by the night, and the pods are easy to copy, so the owners of well-placed city buildings collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Flash Suit: A garment worn in mock combat drills that registers when the wearer is tagged.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flash Suit

Ender's Game, Orson Scott Card · 1985

A garment worn in mock combat drills that registers when the wearer is tagged.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A suit that records hits makes practice battles fairer, which serves trainers and players only.

Who is paid. In the story an army school uses it for drills, so the state pays, and the firms that already hold contracts for training gear collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Reactive Walls: Nightclub wall surfaces that respond visually to the music playing.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Reactive Walls

Freezone, John Shirley · 1985

Nightclub wall surfaces that respond visually to the music playing.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Walls that move with the music are decoration for a venue.

Who is paid. Club owners buy them and many lighting firms can supply them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sleep Tube: A compact cylindrical pod used as a place to sleep and live.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sleep Tube

Solstice, James Patrick Kelly · 1985

A compact cylindrical pod used as a place to sleep and live.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A pod to sleep and live in is cheap lodging for those who will accept little space.

Who is paid. Lodgers pay by the stay, and since pods are easy to copy those who already own the buildings and sites collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Tube Rack: Lodgings formed from stacked cylindrical sleeping pods.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tube Rack

Solstice, James Patrick Kelly · 1985

Lodgings formed from stacked cylindrical sleeping pods.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Stacked sleeping pods are cheap lodging for those who will accept little space.

Who is paid. Lodgers pay by the stay, and since pods are easy to copy those who already own the buildings and sites collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Cleaning Machine Warren: A storage nook where cleaning robots rest when idle.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cleaning Machine Warren

Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988

A storage nook where cleaning robots rest when idle.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cupboard where cleaning robots wait is a minor building detail.

Who is paid. Home owners pay for it as part of the house, and any builder can make a storage nook.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Head-Molding Skincaps: A snug cap worn on the scalp that leaves the head smooth and hairless without a razor.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Head-Molding Skincaps

Prelude to Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1988

A snug cap worn on the scalp that leaves the head smooth and hairless without a razor.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cap that leaves the scalp smooth replaces the razor for those who want a bare head.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and I assume other makers could copy the cap once it was on sale.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Heartshirt: A garment that picks up its wearer's heartbeat and shows it as changing colours.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Heartshirt

Wetware, Rudy Rucker · 1988

A garment that picks up its wearer's heartbeat and shows it as changing colours.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A shirt that shows your heartbeat in colour is a fashion novelty.

Who is paid. Wearers buy it, and the sensor and the colour-changing cloth could be put together by many clothing makers.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of High Tech Trash Can: A smarter bin that sorts, compacts or processes household rubbish.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

High Tech Trash Can

Islands in the Net, Bruce Sterling · 1988

A smarter bin that sorts, compacts or processes household rubbish.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A bin that sorts and squashes rubbish saves a household a small chore.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and many appliance makers could build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Airbag Jacket: A garment that inflates cushions to shield the wearer when they hit something.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Airbag Jacket

Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992

A garment that inflates cushions to shield the wearer when they hit something.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It protects riders and others at risk of a fall, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and inflating cushions are well understood, so many makers can sell it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Smart Pizza Box: Food packaging with an embedded chip that tracks and reports on its contents.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Smart Pizza Box

Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992

Food packaging with an embedded chip that tracks and reports on its contents.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Packaging that reports on its contents helps a food seller track deliveries a little better.

Who is paid. Food firms buy the boxes and many packaging firms can add a chip, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Air-Conditioned Coat: Outerwear with built-in cooling that keeps the wearer comfortable in hot weather.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Air-Conditioned Coat

Deep Eddy, Bruce Sterling · 1993

Outerwear with built-in cooling that keeps the wearer comfortable in hot weather.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Clothing that truly keeps a person cool in the heat would matter to everyone who works or travels outdoors in hot places.

Who is paid. Wearers buy it, and I assume the cooling parts are easy to copy, so many clothing makers would compete the gain away.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Stealth House: An airtight energy-efficient house whose poor ventilation lets indoor pollutants build up.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stealth House

Virtual Light, William Gibson · 1993

An airtight energy-efficient house whose poor ventilation lets indoor pollutants build up.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An airtight house saves energy, but the stale air it traps takes back much of the gain.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and sealing a house is easy to copy, so the builders and developers who already hold land and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Auto-Treadmills (Needle-Gym): A floor that shifts beneath you so you can walk or run in any direction inside a small room.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Auto-Treadmills (Needle-Gym)

Natulife, David Brin · 1994

A floor that shifts beneath you so you can walk or run in any direction inside a small room.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Walking anywhere inside a small room is mainly useful for exercise and games.

Who is paid. People buy it for the home, and a moving floor could be built by many makers of exercise machines.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pedomotive: Stilt-like leg extensions for longer strides, sold as extreme-sports gear.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pedomotive

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

Stilt-like leg extensions for longer strides, sold as extreme-sports gear.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Leg extensions for longer strides are sports gear for a few enthusiasts.

Who is paid. Households buy them and any sports gear maker can build them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Hotdesk: A shared workstation whose surface is itself an input device.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hotdesk

Idoru, William Gibson · 1996

A shared workstation whose surface is itself an input device.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A shared desk you can type and draw on is a modest office convenience.

Who is paid. Offices buy it, and a touch surface built into a desk is something many makers can supply.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Kitchen Korner: A networked smart fridge unit that everyone ends up owning.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Kitchen Korner

Idoru, William Gibson · 1996

A networked smart fridge unit that everyone ends up owning.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Connecting the fridge to a network adds a convenience to something every home already has.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and the smart parts are easy to copy, so the appliance makers who already sell fridges to every home collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Micro-Bachelor: A tiny dwelling built into leftover space in a derelict building.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Micro-Bachelor

Idoru, William Gibson · 1996

A tiny dwelling built into leftover space in a derelict building.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tiny home squeezed into leftover space is a niche form of cheap housing.

Who is paid. Households pay for the space, and whoever already owns the building collects because anyone can fit out a nook.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Concrete Boxes: Bare minimal housing units for people absorbed in virtual worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Concrete Boxes

Earth Made of Glass, John Barnes · 1998

Bare minimal housing units for people absorbed in virtual worlds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A bare room adds little of its own, since the value to its occupant lies in the virtual world and not in the box.

Who is paid. Occupants pay for the space, and a plain box is easy to build, so whoever owns the land it stands on collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Snake Contact Lens: Cosmetic contact lenses that give the eyes reptile-style pupils.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Snake Contact Lens

All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999

Cosmetic contact lenses that give the eyes reptile-style pupils.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Lenses that give reptile pupils are a cosmetic novelty.

Who is paid. Households buy them and many lens makers can copy them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Napcap Capsule: Small sleeping pods in busy transit hubs where travellers can rest.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Napcap Capsule

Saturn's Race, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes) · 2000

Small sleeping pods in busy transit hubs where travellers can rest.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A pod to nap in while travelling is a convenience for tired travellers.

Who is paid. Travellers pay by the stay, and since pods are easy to copy those who already hold space in busy transit hubs collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pocket Dome: A compact shelter that pops up quickly wherever it is needed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pocket Dome

Chindi, Jack McDevitt · 2002

A compact shelter that pops up quickly wherever it is needed.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A shelter that pops up quickly is useful camping and expedition gear.

Who is paid. Households and travellers buy it and many firms can make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Olfactory Wakeup Call: An alarm clock that rouses the sleeper by releasing smells.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Olfactory Wakeup Call

Altered Carbon, Richard Morgan · 2003

An alarm clock that rouses the sleeper by releasing smells.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Waking to a smell is a novelty version of an alarm clock.

Who is paid. Households buy it and any gadget maker can build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Magnetic Levitating Bed: A bed held above the floor by magnets with nothing visible supporting it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magnetic Levitating Bed

Spook Country, William Gibson · 2007

A bed held above the floor by magnets with nothing visible supporting it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A bed that floats with nothing under it is a showpiece.

Who is paid. Rich buyers pay for it, and strong magnets are available to any furniture maker.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Onionskin Transparent Jeans: Trousers made from see-through fabric worn as a fashion statement.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Onionskin Transparent Jeans

Super Sad True Love Story, Gary Shteyngart · 2011

Trousers made from see-through fabric worn as a fashion statement.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. See-through trousers are a fashion item for those who want them.

Who is paid. Households buy them, and once the cloth exists any clothing maker could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Jonnytruck: A rentable mobile toilet whose price is partly covered by recovering the waste.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Jonnytruck

The Water Knife, Paolo Bacigalupi · 2015

A rentable mobile toilet whose price is partly covered by recovering the waste.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A pay toilet on wheels serves people where water and plumbing are short.

Who is paid. Users pay each visit, and the trucks are easy to copy, so the operators who already run fleets and can sell the recovered waste collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hotello: A compact movable enclosure that sets up a private sleeping space inside a larger room.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hotello

New York 2140, Kim Stanley Robinson · 2017

A compact movable enclosure that sets up a private sleeping space inside a larger room.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A private sleeping nook inside a shared room helps people in crowded housing, but it is a simple piece of kit.

Who is paid. Unlike a pod hotel, this is a product the sleeper owns, so people buy it themselves, and any tent or furniture maker can produce it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Exotic physics · 4
Illustration of Gravograph: Draws a visual map showing the strength and shape of gravitational pull across a region.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gravograph

The Sargasso of Space, Edmond Hamilton · 1931

Draws a visual map showing the strength and shape of gravitational pull across a region.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Measuring gravity is a specialist need of surveyors and navigators.

Who is paid. Survey and navigation firms would buy it, and instruments like this can be made by many workshops, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Normal Space: The ordinary three-dimensional space ships move through, as contrasted with a shortcut dimension.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Normal Space

Islands of Space, John W. Campbell · 1931

The ordinary three-dimensional space ships move through, as contrasted with a shortcut dimension.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Ordinary space is simply where everything already is, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electron Gun: A device that fires dense streams of electrons, here aimed at meeting and cancelling a large store of antimatter.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electron Gun

The Great Thirst, Nat Schachner · 1934

A device that fires dense streams of electrons, here aimed at meeting and cancelling a large store of antimatter.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Electron beams exist and are a workshop tool; the story's use against a store of mirror matter is a rare job.

Who is paid. Laboratories and factories buy them, and many firms can make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Gravity Well: Picturing a planet as resting in a dip it presses into a stretchy fabric of space and time.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gravity Well

Life Cycle, Poul Anderson · 1957

Picturing a planet as resting in a dip it presses into a stretchy fabric of space and time.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a way of picturing gravity, an idea and not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold; it is a figure of speech used in teaching.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Society and economy · 46
Illustration of Forced Scholars: Children pushed through intensive schooling to become intellectuals early.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Forced Scholars

Le Monde Tel Qu'il Sera (The World As It Shall Be), Emile Souvestre · 1846

Children pushed through intensive schooling to become intellectuals early.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Pushing children through hard schooling is a practice of parents and schools; I assumed no particular teaching device is meant.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Fossil Shell Coin: Using the scarce remains of a vanished sea creature as currency whose value rests on limited supply.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fossil Shell Coin

The Coming Race, Edward Bulwer-Lytton · 1871

Using the scarce remains of a vanished sea creature as currency whose value rests on limited supply.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Using scarce old shells as money is a custom, and the shells are found, not made.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Government Lethal Chamber: State-run facilities where citizens may lawfully and painlessly end their own lives.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Government Lethal Chamber

The Repairer of Reputations, Robert W. Chambers · 1895

State-run facilities where citizens may lawfully and painlessly end their own lives.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A place for a chosen death would serve few people, so it is a niche.

Who is paid. The state runs it and pays, and the means are simple enough that any supplier could provide them.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Noninterference With Other Worlds: A rule that visitors must not meddle in the development of other worlds' inhabitants.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Noninterference With Other Worlds

In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897

A rule that visitors must not meddle in the development of other worlds' inhabitants.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A rule about how to treat other worlds and their peoples is law or guidance, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of The Book of the Machine: A single manual holding every instruction a person requires to live inside an automated world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

The Book of the Machine

The Machine Stops, E.M. Forster · 1909

A single manual holding every instruction a person requires to live inside an automated world.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A manual for daily life is a convenience.

Who is paid. I assumed the authority that runs the automated world issues it and pays, and anyone can print a book.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hall of the Council: A vast assembly chamber built to seat representatives from across a galaxy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hall of the Council

Crashing Suns, Edmond Hamilton · 1928

A vast assembly chamber built to seat representatives from across a galaxy.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A very large meeting hall is one building, a niche.

Who is paid. The government pays, and any large builder can put it up.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Inurbanity (Inurbane): Legal punishments for people who fail to conduct themselves decently in densely packed megastructure housing.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Inurbanity (Inurbane)

The Cubic City, Louis Tucker, D.D. · 1929

Legal punishments for people who fail to conduct themselves decently in densely packed megastructure housing.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Punishments for bad manners in crowded housing are law, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Groundling: A word for someone who stays on the ground and never travels by air or into space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Groundling

Exiles of the Moon, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931

A word for someone who stays on the ground and never travels by air or into space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Hall of Euthanasia: A facility where people go to end their lives, usually by choice.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hall of Euthanasia

One Against The Legion, Jack Williamson · 1939

A facility where people go to end their lives, usually by choice.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A place for a chosen death would serve few people, so it is a niche.

Who is paid. The state runs it and pays, and the means are simple enough that any supplier could provide them. I assumed it is run by the state, as in the other stories.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Synthetic Personality: A made-up identity given legal standing as though it were a real individual.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Synthetic Personality

If This Goes On..., Robert Heinlein · 1940

A made-up identity given legal standing as though it were a real individual.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A made-up person recognised in law is a legal device, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Anti-Robot Propaganda: Campaigns by people stirring up opposition to machines that think.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Anti-Robot Propaganda

Liar, Isaac Asimov · 1941

Campaigns by people stirring up opposition to machines that think.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A campaign against thinking machines is an event in society, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Asteroid Claim Law: Legal procedure for staking ownership over a small space rock.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Asteroid Claim Law

Jurisdiction, Nat Schachner · 1941

Legal procedure for staking ownership over a small space rock.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Permits, papers and traffic rules for space travel are set by governments, not sold as a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Psycho-History: Using the science of the mind to analyse records of past events and forecast social trends.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Psycho-History

Beyond All Weapons, Eric Frank Russell · 1941

Using the science of the mind to analyse records of past events and forecast social trends.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Reliable forecasts of where a whole society is heading would be worth a great deal to those who govern.

Who is paid. Governments pay, and I assumed the method and its records stay in the hands of those who worked it out, so others cannot copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Lawyer (Sky-Lawyer): An attorney who specialises in the law of outer space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Lawyer (Sky-Lawyer)

Jurisdiction, Nat Schachner · 1941

An attorney who specialises in the law of outer space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Advice on the law of space is a niche within the law.

Who is paid. Firms working in space pay, and any trained lawyer can offer it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Visible Halo

Sixth Column, Anson MacDonald · 1941

A lighting effect that makes a preacher appear to glow with holiness.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A glow around a preacher is a stage effect.

Who is paid. Churches pay, which I count as businesses, and any lighting maker can supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Groundhog: Slang for someone who lives and works on the ground rather than in orbit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Groundhog

Waldo, Robert Heinlein · 1942

Slang for someone who lives and works on the ground rather than in orbit.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Crimestop: A learned reflex of cutting off any forbidden line of thought before it forms.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Crimestop

1984 (Nineteen Eighty-Four), George Orwell · 1948

A learned reflex of cutting off any forbidden line of thought before it forms.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A trained habit of thought is a skill or a harm of the mind, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Doublethink: A trained habit of holding two opposing beliefs at once and accepting both.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Doublethink

1984 (Nineteen Eighty-Four), George Orwell · 1948

A trained habit of holding two opposing beliefs at once and accepting both.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A trained habit of thought is a skill or a harm of the mind, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Three Generation Work (Century Piece): A single artwork made over a hundred years by grandparent, parent and child artists in turn.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Three Generation Work (Century Piece)

The Sub-Standard Sardines, Jack Vance · 1949

A single artwork made over a hundred years by grandparent, parent and child artists in turn.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. One artwork made over a century is a rare luxury.

Who is paid. Collectors pay, and only the family that spent three lifetimes on it can offer it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Earther: A label settlers use for someone native to our home planet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Earther

The Five Gold Bands, Jack Vance · 1950

A label settlers use for someone native to our home planet.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Nexialist: A generalist who ties together findings from many scientific fields.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nexialist

Voyage of the Space Beagle, A.E. van Vogt · 1950

A generalist who ties together findings from many scientific fields.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A generalist who joins up findings across fields is a useful but niche adviser.

Who is paid. Firms and laboratories hire them, and the skill lies in people whom anyone can train.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Booklegger: Someone who secretly trades in banned reading material.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Booklegger

Between Planets, Robert Heinlein · 1951

Someone who secretly trades in banned reading material.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A ban does not decide the answer, and trading in forbidden books is a small trade with willing readers.

Who is paid. Readers pay the trader, and anyone willing to take the risk can deal in books, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Smarter People Having Fewer Children: A demographic worry, used as the story's premise, that capable people have too few offspring.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Smarter People Having Fewer Children

The Marching Morons, C.M. Kornbluth · 1951

A demographic worry, used as the story's premise, that capable people have too few offspring.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A policy or worry about who may have children is a matter of rule and society, not something anyone would buy.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Flesh Men: A robots' word for biological thinking beings, meaning ordinary people.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flesh Men

Robots of the World! Arise!, Mari Wolf · 1952

A robots' word for biological thinking beings, meaning ordinary people.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Law of Contact: A rule forbidding interference in how other civilisations develop.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Law of Contact

Orphans of the Void, Orville Shaara · 1952

A rule forbidding interference in how other civilisations develop.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A rule about how to treat other worlds and their peoples is law or guidance, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Earplug Decision (Restraint of Advertising): A court ruling in a satire that forbids people from shutting out advertisements with ear protection.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Earplug Decision (Restraint of Advertising)

Captive Audience, Anne Warren Griffith · 1953

A court ruling in a satire that forbids people from shutting out advertisements with ear protection.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A court ruling is law, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Salamander: A fictional fire-service vehicle in the story that sets buildings ablaze instead of putting out fires.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Salamander

Fahrenheit 451, Ray Bradbury · 1953

A fictional fire-service vehicle in the story that sets buildings ablaze instead of putting out fires.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A fire truck that sprays fuel is a simple vehicle with one grim use.

Who is paid. The state fire service buys it, and any truck maker could build one.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Diabological Armory: A kit of verbal tricks built on superior logic, used to bewilder opponents in conversation.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Diabological Armory

Diabologic, Eric Frank Russell · 1955

A kit of verbal tricks built on superior logic, used to bewilder opponents in conversation.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A trained habit of thought is a skill or a harm of the mind, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Planet Rules: Codes of conduct that govern how explorers behave after landing on an unfamiliar world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Planet Rules

Drop Dead, Clifford Simak · 1956

Codes of conduct that govern how explorers behave after landing on an unfamiliar world.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A rule about how to treat other worlds and their peoples is law or guidance, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Post-Crime: Dealing with offences only once they have been committed, as opposed to stopping them beforehand.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Post-Crime

The Minority Report, Philip K. Dick · 1956

Dealing with offences only once they have been committed, as opposed to stopping them beforehand.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Punishing crimes after they happen is ordinary policing under a new name, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Radioactive Coding for Checks: Marking bank cheques with a faint radioactive code so machines can sort and verify them quickly.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Radioactive Coding for Checks

The Door Into Summer, Robert Heinlein · 1956

Marking bank cheques with a faint radioactive code so machines can sort and verify them quickly.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Machine-readable marks on cheques save banks some sorting work, a niche.

Who is paid. Banks pay, and any printer could apply the marks, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Indestructible Contract: A legal agreement recorded in a form that resists tampering or damage.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Indestructible Contract

Dorsai!, Gordon R. Dickson · 1960

A legal agreement recorded in a form that resists tampering or damage.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A record of an agreement that cannot be altered or destroyed is a useful safeguard but a niche.

Who is paid. Firms that sign contracts pay, and many makers could offer such a record, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Universal Technical Consultative Service: A service that plans and books journeys between star systems.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Universal Technical Consultative Service

The Star King, Jack Vance · 1964

A service that plans and books journeys between star systems.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Planning and booking journeys is a convenience; I assumed the starships already exist.

Who is paid. Travellers pay, and anyone can set up as a booking agent.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pray-o-Mat: A coin-operated machine that recites prayers for you.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pray-o-Mat

Lord of Light, Roger Zelazny · 1967

A coin-operated machine that recites prayers for you.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A coin machine that prays for you is a novelty.

Who is paid. Worshippers drop in coins, and anyone can build such a machine.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Synthesist: A profession devoted to linking insights across separate fields of knowledge.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Synthesist

Stand on Zanzibar, John Brunner · 1968

A profession devoted to linking insights across separate fields of knowledge.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A generalist who joins up findings across fields is a useful but niche adviser.

Who is paid. Firms and laboratories hire them, and the skill lies in people whom anyone can train.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spark Plug (Systematician): A generalist who synthesises insights drawn from many unrelated fields.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spark Plug (Systematician)

Dream Thief, Stephen Lawhead · 1983

A generalist who synthesises insights drawn from many unrelated fields.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A generalist who joins up findings across fields is a useful but niche adviser.

Who is paid. Firms and laboratories hire them, and the skill lies in people whom anyone can train.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Flexitime: A workplace scheme that signals when an employee has completed their required hours.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flexitime

Master of Space and Time, Rudy Rucker · 1984

A workplace scheme that signals when an employee has completed their required hours.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A signal that the day's hours are done is a small office convenience.

Who is paid. Employers pay, and any maker of office clocks or software can supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of House Records Archivist: A specialist who cross-references material inside a religious order's vast archive.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

House Records Archivist

Heretics of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1984

A specialist who cross-references material inside a religious order's vast archive.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A specialist who links records in one archive is a niche skill.

Who is paid. The body that owns the archive pays, which I count as a business, and anyone can train for the work.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Panther Modern: A gang of hired digital saboteurs in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Panther Modern

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

A gang of hired digital saboteurs in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Hired sabotage is a crime that no one may lawfully buy; I assumed a forbidden trade counts as nothing sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Threat Team (of sf writers): Assembling speculative fiction authors to anticipate an unknown danger.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Threat Team (of sf writers)

Footfall, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1985

Assembling speculative fiction authors to anticipate an unknown danger.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A panel of storytellers imagining dangers is a small advisory service.

Who is paid. The government pays their fees, and any group of writers could be gathered.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Boomer Park: A vast retirement community for an ageing generation.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Boomer Park

Nanotime, Bart Kosko · 1987

A vast retirement community for an ageing generation.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A vast retirement town is housing and care for a whole generation, worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Retired people pay to live there, and since any builder can copy it, those who already own the land collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Virtual Reality Ceremony: A ritual that accompanies putting on gear for entering a virtual world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Virtual Reality Ceremony

Rim, Alexander Besher · 1994

A ritual that accompanies putting on gear for entering a virtual world.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A ritual for putting on the gear is a custom, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Clave: A self-governing walled community that sets its own rules.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Clave

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

A self-governing walled community that sets its own rules.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Private walled suburbs that run themselves are a big part of the housing trade.

Who is paid. Residents pay to live inside, and since walls and house rules are easy to copy, the owners of well-placed land collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Cyberethics: A field of ethics about how computing systems should fit into human society.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cyberethics

Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999

A field of ethics about how computing systems should fit into human society.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A field of ethics is shared knowledge that anyone may study for free.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Lucky Dragon ATM: A cash machine with a pushy talking personality.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lucky Dragon ATM

All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999

A cash machine with a pushy talking personality.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cash machine that talks is a small twist on an ordinary machine.

Who is paid. Banks and shops buy it, and any maker of cash machines can add a voice.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Timebroker: A dealer who buys and sells hours of other people's lives as a commodity.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Timebroker

Shuteye for the Timebroker, Paul Di Filippo · 2006

A dealer who buys and sells hours of other people's lives as a commodity.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A market in people's hours is like the hiring of labour, an industry of its own; I assumed working hours are meant and not years of life.

Who is paid. Firms buy the hours, and anyone can set up as a dealer, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Ideas from Technovelgy: Science Fiction Timeline of Inventions (Bill Christensen) (archived copy), as compiled in Not Boring: Sci-Fi Idea Bank (Packy McCormick); names, works, authors and years are theirs and every description is this site's rewording. Categories, arrival decades and profit are judged by AI models, not people. Method