The technologies stories first imagined in this decade, by kind, with whether each has been built since and who would keep the profit.
By kind of technology
Space travel and habitats · 88
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cyclotronic Ore-Hurler
Exit From Asteroid 60, D.L. James · 1940
Uses an asteroid's magnetism to fling mined rock across space.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Unlike a launch track serving all cargo, this only moves ore from a mine, a tool within space mining.
Who is paid. Mining firms pay for it, and makers of mining and launch gear could all build it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Darkened Glass Face Plate
The Achilles Heel, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1940
A tinted helmet visor that shields a spacewalker's eyes from harsh sunlight.
built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It is a handy detail of a helmet, a convenience for the few people who wear spacesuits.
Who is paid. Operators pay for it as part of the suit, and suit makers fit it themselves because any of them could copy it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Escape Port
Hell Ship of Space, Frederic Arnold Kummer, Jr. · 1940
A one-person emergency exit for leaving a spacecraft in a crisis.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It saves lives in a disaster, but it is safety equipment carried aboard a larger ship.
Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as required safety gear, and shipbuilders supply it because the design is easy to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Humanoid
Homo Sol, Isaac Asimov · 1940
A being from another world whose body resembles a person's in form and look.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a being from another world, a creature and not a technology.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Life-Ship
The Invisible World, Ed Earl Repp · 1940
A small craft for escaping and surviving when the main vessel is lost.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A way off a failing ship saves lives but is carried as a fitting and rarely used.
Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as part of the craft, and established shipbuilders supply it since any of them could make it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Moon Skis
Requiem, Robert Heinlein · 1940
Broad skis made for gliding over loose lunar dust.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Skis for crossing loose Moon dust are a small aid to those who work there.
Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and it is a simple loose item that any workshop could make.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Neutronium Slippers
Revolt on the Tenth World, Edmond Hamilton · 1940
Extremely dense shoes that keep a wearer planted on worlds with weak gravity.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Heavy shoes that keep a worker planted where things weigh little are a niche aid for a few crews.
Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and unlike plain weighted shoes it needs a dense material no workshop has, so the established makers of space gear supply it, though any of them could copy it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Planetfall
Quicksands of Youthwardness, Malcolm Jameson · 1940
Bringing a spacecraft down from orbit to a controlled touchdown on a world's surface.
built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a word or a way of doing things that needs no new equipment, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Rocket Cruiser
The Worlds of Tomorrow, Manly Wade Wellman · 1940
A spaceship owned and flown by a private individual rather than a state.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A spaceship a private person can own and fly would open a new kind of private travel.
Who is paid. Private owners buy the ship, assumed here to be ordinary people and not firms, and since the design could be copied the established builders of craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Space Shuttle
Hell Ship of Space, Frederic Arnold Kummer, Jr. · 1940
A reusable craft that ferries people and cargo between the ground and an orbiting ship.
built in the 1980s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A cheap reusable way from the ground to orbit would cut the cost of everything done in space.
Who is paid. Carriers buy the craft to move people and cargo, and once it flew other builders could copy it, so established craft builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Space Tramp
The Invisible World, Ed Earl Repp · 1940
A worn-out, slow cargo ship that drifts between ports in space.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A cargo ship, even an old slow one, is the working vessel of trade between worlds, a transport industry of its own.
Who is paid. Shippers and carriers buy and run such ships, and many yards could build them, so established builders and fleet owners collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Test Box
The Devil's Pocket, F.E. Hardart · 1940
A remotely operated container that grabs small bits of matter drifting in space.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A remote box for catching drifting specks is a tool for sampling, assumed here to serve prospecting or testing.
Who is paid. Firms working in space buy it, assumed here, and the established makers of space equipment could all copy it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Asteroid Lanes
Jurisdiction, Nat Schachner · 1941
Predictable paths along which space rocks regularly travel.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a natural thing or event in space, not a product anyone makes or sells.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Astrogation (to Astrogate)
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
Finding and steering a course for a craft between worlds.
built in the 1950s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It is a skill, judged by the work it sells: plotting a course is needed on every voyage but is a small part of its cost.
Who is paid. Ship operators pay the wages, and anyone with the training can do the work, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Automatic Refueling Screen
Biddiver, Theodore Sturgeon · 1941
A field around a craft that pushes away big debris and scoops up small particles as fuel.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A field that both shields a ship from debris and gathers fuel as it flies would cut the cost of every voyage.
Who is paid. Ship operators pay, and once the field worked other shipbuilders could copy it, so established builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Chardion Field
Star of Dreams, Jack Williamson · 1941
An invisible barrier that holds breathable air around very small planets.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Holding air in place without walls would make settling airless worlds far cheaper than building domes.
Who is paid. Settlements are public works a government pays for, and once the field was known other builders could copy it, so established settlement builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Charted Planetoid Mines
The Day We Celebrate, Nelson S. Bond · 1941
Mapping small bodies in space to find and claim ore worth digging.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Metal and other materials from space rocks would be an industry of its own and could change the cost of raw materials.
Who is paid. Factories and builders buy the output, and since mining methods are easy to copy the firms that already own ships and refineries collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Delayed Action Stereoscopic Principle
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
Spotting distant ships by how they shift across the background of stars over time.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a word or a way of doing things that needs no new equipment, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Docking-Cradle
They Never Came Back, Fritz Leiber · 1941
A ground frame that supports a spaceship's weight while it sits on a planet.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A frame to hold a landed ship is plain ground equipment at a port.
Who is paid. Port operators buy it, and a steel frame is something many firms could make.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Electrono-Mirror
The Day We Celebrate, Nelson S. Bond · 1941
A reflector that concentrates sunlight on another world to reshape its climate.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Giving a whole world air and a climate people can live in would open new land for a large share of humanity.
Who is paid. Only a government could fund work on a whole world, and the large engineering firms that already hold such contracts would be paid to do it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Geodesic Inflexors
Star of Dreams, Jack Williamson · 1941
Drives a craft by bending the fabric of space itself rather than expelling mass.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. An engine that moves ships faster or more cheaply would change the cost of all space transport.
Who is paid. An engine is bought by whoever runs the ship, assumed here to be carriers, and established engine builders could copy it once it worked.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Joy-boat Junior
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
A personally owned pleasure craft that can make short hops above the atmosphere.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A private pleasure craft for hops above the air is a luxury for a few owners, like the other yachts.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy the craft for themselves, and since others could copy it the established vehicle builders and their dealers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Lunar Used Spacecraft Lot
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
A dealership on the Moon that resells second-hand spaceships.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2080s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A yard that resells old ships is an ordinary trade, a convenience for buyers.
Who is paid. Small operators buy the ships, and anyone with a patch of ground could open such a yard, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Magnetic Sandals
Star of Dreams, Jack Williamson · 1941
Shoes that cling to a ship's floor so wearers can walk in weightlessness.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Keeping your footing where there is little or no weight is a small convenience for those who work there.
Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and it is a simple loose item that any workshop could make.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Magnetized Boots
Lost Rocket, Manly Wade Wellman · 1941
Shoes that grip a steel hull so one can walk without artificial weight.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Keeping your footing where there is little or no weight is a small convenience for those who work there.
Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and it is a simple loose item that any workshop could make.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Orbital Mirror
Completely Automatic, Theodore Sturgeon · 1941
A giant reflector circling a world that directs sunlight down onto the ground.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Unlike a mirror that remakes a whole world, this lights or warms chosen regions of the ground, worth an industry but not a new world.
Who is paid. Light falling on a region cannot be charged to each person under it, so a government is assumed to pay, and established satellite builders supply it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Oxygen Freshener
Lost Rocket, Manly Wade Wellman · 1941
Removes exhaled carbon dioxide from cabin air and restores breathable oxygen.
built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Breathable air is essential, but this is a fitting inside a craft, suit or camp, not an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Ship and expedition operators pay for it with their other gear, and the established builders of ships and suits supply it because the method is easy to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Parking Orbit
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
A holding path around a world from which a small shuttle can reach the ground easily.
built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a word or a way of doing things that needs no new equipment, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pilot Beam
Methuselah's Children, Murray Leinster · 1941
A guidance signal that descending craft follow down to a safe touchdown.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A signal that guides craft down to a safe landing is a necessary piece of port equipment, not an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Port operators buy it, and established makers of radio and landing gear could all supply it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Space Legs
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
The trained knack of walking steadily aboard a ship under heavy thrust.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a knack a crew member picks up with practice, not a product or a service sold by itself.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Space Overalls
Lost Rocket, Manly Wade Wellman · 1941
A thin, lightweight pressure garment for easy work in space.
built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It keeps a person alive and able to work outside, essential gear but only for the few who work in space.
Who is paid. Space operators buy suits for their crews, and the few established makers of suits can all copy a design, so they collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Space Placers
The Day We Celebrate, Nelson S. Bond · 1941
Prospectors who sift loose deposits on other worlds using methods borrowed from terrestrial mining.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It is a job, judged by the work it sells: sifting loose deposits by hand is small-scale digging beside the mines.
Who is paid. Mining firms or buyers of the ore pay for the work, assumed here, and anyone with a pan and the training can do it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Space Rush
Jurisdiction, Nat Schachner · 1941
A scramble of prospectors racing to claim riches found off Earth.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is an event, a crowd racing to stake claims, not a product anyone makes or sells.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Space Socks
Lost Rocket, Manly Wade Wellman · 1941
Protective footwear layers worn by crews off-world.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It is a part of a suit, useful to the wearer but not a product by itself.
Who is paid. Space operators pay for it within the suit, and the established suit makers supply it since any of them can copy it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Space Station
Backlash, Jack Williamson · 1941
An orbiting outpost that serves as a working base above a planet.
built in the 1970s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A place for people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.
Who is paid. A station is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Space Tanned
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
Skin darkening from unfiltered sunlight received beyond the air's protective shield.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It names what space does to the body, a condition and not a product anyone makes or sells.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Space Tunnel
The Man Who Bought Mars, Polton Cross · 1941
A sealed walkway stretched between two ships so crews can cross.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Crossing between ships without suiting up is a convenience fitted to craft that meet often.
Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as a fitting, and the established builders of ships supply it since it is easy to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Spacehound
Beast of Space, F.E. Hardart · 1941
A dog-like animal that senses minds and burrows into space rocks after metal.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a creature found in space, not bred or built by anyone, so it is not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Squeaker
Beast of Space, F.E. Hardart · 1941
A handheld detector that finds radioactive ore on small space rocks.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A handheld finder for radioactive ore is a prospector's tool, a niche.
Who is paid. Prospecting firms buy it, and radiation detectors are ordinary instruments that many firms make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sweep Field
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
A field that draws in dust and gas between planets to feed a ship's drive.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Gathering fuel from the dust and gas along the way would free a ship from carrying it, a large gain for every voyage.
Who is paid. Whoever runs the ship pays for the engine, assumed here to be carriers, and once a firm had built it others could too, so established engine and ship builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Broomstick Speedster
Waldo, Robert Heinlein · 1942
A small two-person vehicle that reaches orbit using power beamed to it from outside.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A small personal vehicle that reaches orbit would open a new kind of private travel.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy the vehicle, but it only flies on beamed power, so the owners of the power stations collect most.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dirigible Space Armor (Working Space Suits)
Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942
Rugged steerable pressure suits worn by miners working on space rocks.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A suit that keeps a person alive in vacuum is vital to its wearer but serves only the few who work in space.
Who is paid. Space operators buy suits for their crews, and the few firms that already make such gear supply them since the design can be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Igloo-Shaped Space Shelter
Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942
A dome-shaped habitat that goes up quickly on airless rocks in space.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A shelter that goes up quickly serves small parties working on airless ground, a niche.
Who is paid. No user is named, so it is assumed that firms working on other worlds buy it as working gear, and a shelter that must hold air against vacuum is made by the established makers of suits and habitats, any of whom could copy it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Insosuit
Runaround, Isaac Asimov · 1942
Protective spacewear built to survive intense heat on scorching worlds.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A suit that keeps a person alive in a hostile place is vital to its wearer but serves only the few who work there.
Who is paid. Space operators buy suits for their crews, and the few firms that already make such gear supply them since the design can be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Meteorscope
The World With A Thousand Moons, Edmond Hamilton · 1942
Scans the route ahead of a ship to spot clouds of dangerous space debris.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Warning of rocks ahead keeps a ship safe, but it is a fitting on the craft, not an industry.
Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and the firms that already make ship instruments supply it since the design can be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Negative Safety-Field
Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942
An artificial gravity barrier that pushes hazards away from a ship.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Pushing rocks and other hazards away keeps a ship safe, but it is a safety fitting of the craft and not an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and once the field worked other shipbuilders could copy it, so established builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Paragravity
Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942
Generates gravity artificially inside a ship without spinning it.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Real weight underfoot without spinning the ship would be fitted almost everywhere people live in space.
Who is paid. Ship and station operators buy it, and once it worked other makers could copy it, so established builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Seetee Blinker
Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942
A warning beacon placed on antimatter rocks so ships can navigate around them.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A marker in space for navigators is a minor aid to navigation.
Who is paid. A beacon serves all ships and none can be charged, so a government pays, and a simple transmitter or light is something many firms could build.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Space Tugs
Describe a Circle, Eric Frank Russell · 1942
Small working craft that push and tow other vessels around in orbit.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Moving other craft about in orbit is a steady support trade, not an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Port and ship operators buy tugs, and any spacecraft builder could make such a simple craft, so established builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Space-Burned
Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942
Skin damage from harsh unfiltered sunlight beyond the atmosphere.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It names what space does to the body, a condition and not a product anyone makes or sells.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Terraforming
Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942
Reshaping a whole planet's surface, air and ecosystems until it resembles Earth.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Giving a whole world air and a climate people can live in would open new land for a large share of humanity.
Who is paid. Only a government could fund work on a whole world, and the large engineering firms that already hold such contracts would be paid to do it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Thermalarm Relays
Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942
Senses nearby objects through their infrared glow so ships can steer clear.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Sensing nearby objects so a ship can steer clear is essential but is an instrument within the ship.
Who is paid. Ship operators buy it as part of the craft, and the established makers of flight instruments supply it since it can be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vac Suit
Child of the Sun, Leigh Brackett · 1942
A sealed outfit that lets a person survive and work in airless space.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It keeps a person alive and able to work outside, essential gear but only for the few who work in space.
Who is paid. Space operators buy suits for their crews, and the few established makers of suits can all copy a design, so they collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Weight-Shoes
The World With A Thousand Moons, Edmond Hamilton · 1942
Heavy footwear that helps people keep their footing on low-gravity worlds.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Heavy shoes that steady the wearer on a light world are a small piece of crew gear.
Who is paid. No buyer is named, so firms working on such worlds are assumed to buy them for crews, and it is a simple loose item that any workshop could make.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wheelchair Space Station
Waldo, Robert Heinlein · 1942
A private orbiting dwelling where someone lives permanently above Earth.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A private home in orbit is a dwelling for a very few who could afford and want it.
Who is paid. Unlike other stations the description names a private resident, who pays for it, and established station builders could all make one.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Xenephrene Interstellar World
A Brand New World, Ray Cummings · 1942
A planet drifting freely through interstellar space without a parent star.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a natural thing or event in space, not a product anyone makes or sells.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Deceleration Chambers
The Storm, A.E. van Vogt · 1943
Ship sections designed to split off under strain so each piece might keep its occupants alive.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It saves lives in a disaster, but it is safety equipment carried aboard a larger ship.
Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as required safety gear, and shipbuilders supply it because the design is easy to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Manshell
Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943
A tiny spacecraft sized for one occupant, also used as a lifeboat.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A tiny craft for a lone occupant that also serves as a lifeboat is a niche fitting.
Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as part of the craft, and established shipbuilders supply it since any of them could make it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Meteor-Spotting Radar
Recoil, George O. Smith · 1943
Onboard radar that alerts a ship to approaching space rocks.
built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Warning of rocks ahead keeps a ship safe, but it is a fitting on the craft, not an industry.
Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and the firms that already make ship instruments supply it since the design can be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Off-World
Judgement Night, C.L. Moore · 1943
Describes anything originating somewhere other than our home planet.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a word, not a product anyone makes or sells.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Rocketeer
Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943
A person whose job is flying rocket-powered craft.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It is a job, judged by the work it sells: a trained pilot is needed on every flight but is a small part of its cost.
Who is paid. Ship operators pay the wages, and anyone with the training can do the work, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Space Cadet
Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943
A youngster in training to become a crew member on spacecraft.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It is a trainee crew role, judged like the other jobs by the work and training it involves, a small part of what a voyage costs.
Who is paid. Ship operators are assumed to pay to train and keep their trainee crews, and anyone can apply and learn, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Space Weather Map
The Storm, A.E. van Vogt · 1943
Charts dangerous radiation and particle conditions across a region of space.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A chart of dangerous radiation helps the few ships in a region plan safe passage.
Who is paid. Like a weather service it serves all ships and is hard to charge each of them for, so a government is assumed to pay the forecasting bodies and suppliers that already do such work.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Stratoyacht
Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943
A personal luxury vessel that can climb into orbit for recreation.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A private pleasure craft for space is a luxury for a few rich owners.
Who is paid. The description names private owners who buy it for themselves, and the yards that already build spacecraft could all make one.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Asteroid Mining Robot
Catch That Rabbit, Isaac Asimov · 1944
A self-directed machine that extracts metals and other resources from asteroids.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Metal and other materials from space rocks would be an industry of its own and could change the cost of raw materials.
Who is paid. Factories and builders buy the output, and since mining methods are easy to copy the firms that already own ships and refineries collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hollow Asteroid
Juke Box Asteroid, Joseph Farrell · 1944
An asteroid with its interior dug out so people can live inside it.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A place for many people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.
Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Star Base
Star Base X, R.M. Williams · 1944
An outpost placed at a strategic point between the stars.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. An outpost at a strategic point between the stars is a very large building project.
Who is paid. A strategic outpost is assumed to be military, so a government pays, and the big builders that already hold defence and space contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Turnover
Off the Beam, George O. Smith · 1944
The midway moment when a thrusting spacecraft flips around to begin slowing down.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a way of flying, the flip at the midpoint of a trip, that needs no new equipment and is not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Escapecraft
The Ethical Equations, Murray Leinster · 1945
A small lifeboat vessel the crew boards when they must leave the main ship.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It saves lives in a disaster, but it is safety equipment carried aboard a larger ship.
Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as required safety gear, and shipbuilders supply it because the design is easy to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Geosynchronous Satellite
V2 for Ionospheric Research, Arthur C. Clarke · 1945
A relay satellite whose orbit matches the planet's daily spin, so it stays fixed above one place.
built in 1964, 19 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A relay that stays over one place carries broadcasts and calls across the world, an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Broadcasters and phone firms pay for the relay, and since many builders can make such satellites the gain goes to operators that already hold the orbit places and networks.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Asteroid Mine
Love Among The Robots, Emmett McDowell · 1946
Finding asteroids rich in metal and extracting their ore.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Metal and other materials from space rocks would be an industry of its own and could change the cost of raw materials.
Who is paid. Factories and builders buy the output, and since mining methods are easy to copy the firms that already own ships and refineries collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gravity Port
Shadow Over Venus, Frank Belknap Long, Jr. · 1946
A port facility where spacecraft stop to take on fuel.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A place to land, park or refuel is a necessary part of space traffic but only an extra beside the ships and launch works.
Who is paid. Ship operators pay to use it, and it is easy to copy, so those who already hold the port sites collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Plastic Igloo
Love Among The Robots, Emmett McDowell · 1946
A sturdy dome-shaped plastic dwelling that holds air for living where there is none outside.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It lets a settler family live on an airless world, a niche for the few who homestead there.
Who is paid. It is a dwelling, so settlers are assumed to buy it for themselves, and a shelter that must hold air against vacuum is made by the established makers of suits and habitats, any of whom could copy it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Star Travel
Forgotten World, Edmond Hamilton · 1946
Voyages from our solar system to other stars.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Voyages to other stars are the same service as travel between worlds, a transport industry of its own for those who go and not a change for most people.
Who is paid. Carriers buy the ships and sell the passage, assumed here as with travel between worlds, and since ships can be copied the builders and carriers that already own fleets and ports collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wandering Sunless Planet
Dead Hand, Isaac Asimov · 1946
A planet drifting through space without orbiting any star.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a natural thing or event in space, not a product anyone makes or sells.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Asteroid Nets
Asteroid Justice, V.E. Thiessen · 1947
Nets launched on rockets to snare small asteroids and rock fragments.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A net for catching small rocks is a tool within space mining, not the industry itself.
Who is paid. Mining firms buy it, and the makers of mining and space gear could all produce it, which is why it earns less than mining as a whole.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ion Drive
Equalizer, Jack Williamson · 1947
A spacecraft engine that pushes out charged particles, accelerating slowly but steadily to great speed.
built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The promise is a steady engine that takes ships to great speed on little fuel, which would change the cost of space transport; the real engine so far moves only small craft.
Who is paid. An engine is bought by whoever runs the ship, assumed here to be carriers, and established engine builders could copy it once it worked.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Space-Dory
Asteroid Justice, V.E. Thiessen · 1947
A small auxiliary spacecraft that can double as an escape boat.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A small extra craft that can serve as an escape boat is something every operator wants aboard.
Who is paid. Ship operators buy it as part of the craft, and the established builders of ships and their fittings supply it since it can be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Atmospheric Braking
Space Cadet, Robert Heinlein · 1948
Slowing a spacecraft by dipping it repeatedly through a planet's upper air.
built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a way of flying or moving, not a product; the craft and gear that do it are judged under their own entries.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gravity Centrifuge
Space Cadet, Robert Heinlein · 1948
A spinning training rig that lets people in weak gravity keep their muscles strong.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Keeping muscles strong in weak gravity matters to the few who live there, a niche.
Who is paid. Operators of bases and ships buy it for their crews, and established builders of such fittings supply it since it is easy to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Moonbase (or Moon Base)
240,000 Miles Straight Up, L. Ron Hubbard · 1948
A permanent outpost on the lunar surface.
built in the 2020s, about 80 years after it was imagined
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A place for many people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.
Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Moonquake-Proof Habitats
Gentlemen, Be Seated, Robert Heinlein · 1948
Lunar outposts engineered to ride out tremors in the Moon's crust.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A place for many people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.
Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Personal Rocket Jet
Space Cadet, Robert Heinlein · 1948
A hand-held thruster that lets an astronaut move around freely outside a ship.
built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It helps a spacewalker get around while weightless, a niche tool for a few workers.
Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and the makers of suits and space gear supply it because it is easy to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Space Ark
Decision Illogical, N.B. Wilkinson · 1948
A giant vessel that carries a whole population across space.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A vessel carrying a whole population on a voyage of many lifetimes is an enormous building project.
Who is paid. Only a government could fund it, and the big shipbuilders and contractors already trusted with such work would be paid.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Star Drive
Genius, Poul Anderson · 1948
An engine powerful enough to carry a ship between the stars.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Travel to other stars would open them to trade and settlement, a transport industry of its own; it is a change for those who go, not for most people.
Who is paid. Ship operators pay for the drive, and once a firm had built it others could too, so established shipbuilders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tag-Along Balloon
Gentlemen, Be Seated, Robert Heinlein · 1948
A floating bladder that drifts to an air leak in a sealed habitat and plugs it until repairs.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A drifting bladder that plugs a leak until repairs come is a simple safety item for a sealed habitat.
Who is paid. Whoever pays for the habitat pays for this, assumed here to be a government, and it is simple enough that many firms could make it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bubble Armor Space Suit
Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949
A rigid round metal shell worn instead of a soft pressure suit.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A suit that keeps a person alive in vacuum is vital to its wearer but serves only the few who work in space.
Who is paid. Space operators buy suits for their crews, and the few firms that already make such gear supply them since the design can be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gee
Sacred Martian Pig (Idris' Pig), Margaret St. Clair · 1949
Using the physicist's symbol for gravity as a unit for measuring acceleration loads.
built since, date unclear
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a word or a unit of measure, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Computing, AI and virtual worlds · 21
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Iridium-Sponge Brain
Adam Link's Vengeance, Eando Binder · 1940
A metal thinking organ that gives robots a humanlike mind.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A machine mind as able as a person could do most kinds of work, which changes how nearly everyone earns a living.
Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Suicide
Adam Link's Vengeance, Eando Binder · 1940
A machine chooses to end its own existence and rigs a way to do it.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is an act a machine chooses in the story and not a product anyone buys.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Neoterics
Microcosmic God, Theodore Sturgeon · 1941
Supplies inventive design talent whenever you ask, turning out new engineering solutions on demand.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Inventive design talent on demand would change the cost of engineering, which I take as a single industry since the description promises designs and not a general thinking machine.
Who is paid. Firms pay for the designs, and the description names nothing that would stop a second supplier, so I assume no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Positronic Brain
Reason, Isaac Asimov · 1941
A thinking processor able to match the mental power of a human.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A machine that thinks as well as a person could do much of the work people now do, which changes how most people live and work.
Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Auto-Clerk
Beyond This Horizon, Robert Heinlein · 1942
Software that keeps books and handles financial records without a human bookkeeper.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Keeping the books without bookkeepers changes a cost every firm bears.
Who is paid. Firms pay, the software is easy to copy, and sellers who already hold a firm's records are hard to leave, so they collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
The Twonky
The Twonky, Lewis Padgett · 1942
A disguised machine sent back from later times, hidden inside an old radio cabinet.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. The description names no use for it, so I took it as the story shows it, a stray machine that takes over its owner's life, which is a hazard and not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Three Laws of Robotics (Rules of Robotics)
Runaround, Isaac Asimov · 1942
A short ranked code of conduct built into machines to keep humans safe and obeyed.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A rule that keeps robots from harming people is what lets them be trusted in homes and workplaces, which the robot trade depends on, and I judged it as a working part of the robot.
Who is paid. Robot makers pay to have it, every one of them must fit something like it, and it is sold inside robots, so the robot makers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Verhaeren Factor
Robinc, Anthony Boucher · 1943
A component that gives self-directed machines the ability to create and act on original ideas.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A machine that thinks as well as a person could do much of the work people now do, which changes how most people live and work.
Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Voice
Catch That Rabbit, Isaac Asimov · 1944
A speaking unit for machines modeled on how people produce sound.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A voice for a machine is a handy part of a larger product and little on its own.
Who is paid. Machine builders buy it as a part, and many firms can make a speaking unit, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Games Machine
World of Null-A, A.E. van Vogt · 1945
An enormous computer that administers society's competitive examinations.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. One machine that examines everyone and decides who rises would replace a whole system of schools, boards and elections.
Who is paid. The state pays for a single machine, and the firms that already build large computing works for governments collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Carson Circuit
A Logic Named Joe, Murray Leinster · 1946
A switching method that sorts and routes requests among a vast number of information sources.
built in 1969, 23 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Routing every request to the right source is one needed part of a world network, and it changes that network's costs rather than how people live.
Who is paid. It is a switching method sold to network owners, it is easy to copy, and those who own the networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Logics
A Logic Named Joe, Murray Leinster · 1946
Home terminals that answer typed questions and show the results on a screen.
built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A terminal at home that answers any typed question changes how most people learn, shop and decide.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy one each, many firms can make them, and those with factories, brands and the network lines collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Logics Service
A Logic Named Joe, Murray Leinster · 1946
A remote service that holds a person's records, calendar and messages and serves them anywhere.
built in the 1990s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Keeping a person's records and messages safe and reachable from anywhere is a service nearly everyone would use.
Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for it, and since it is easy to copy the firms that already own the great computer halls and networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tanks
A Logic Named Joe, Murray Leinster · 1946
Central banks of stored data that a network of terminals draws on.
built in 1956, 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Central stores of data that every terminal draws on are an industry of their own.
Who is paid. The firms that run networks and services pay for them, and since such stores are easy to copy, those that already own the buildings, lines and customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Prime Directive
With Folded Hands, Jack Williamson · 1947
A top-priority rule built into machines that overrides all others, usually to keep people safe.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A rule that keeps robots from harming people is what lets them be trusted in homes and workplaces, which the robot trade depends on, and I judged it as a working part of the robot.
Who is paid. Robot makers pay to have it, every one of them must fit something like it, and it is sold inside robots, so the robot makers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Novel-Writing Machines
1984 (Nineteen Eighty-Four), George Orwell · 1948
Machines that churn out stories with no human author.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Whole stories written with no author would change the costs of the publishing trade.
Who is paid. Publishers, studios and other firms are assumed to be the main buyers, and once the method is known many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Speakwrite
1984 (Nineteen Eighty-Four), George Orwell · 1948
A machine that turns spoken words directly into printed text.
built in the 1950s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Turning speech into text saves typing, which is a real convenience but not an industry in itself.
Who is paid. Offices buy it for their paperwork, and once machines can hear words many firms can make it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Versificator
1984 (Nineteen Eighty-Four), George Orwell · 1948
A machine that automatically writes song lyrics to fit a melody.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Song lyrics written with no human maker would change the costs of the whole trade that now pays people to make them, which is far more than an amusement.
Who is paid. I assume the firms that now pay writers, composers and illustrators are the main buyers, though people may also order for themselves, and once the method is known many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Metal Calculator Planet
Limiting Factor, Clifford Simak · 1949
A whole world encased in miles of machinery under a metal shell, working as one giant computer.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. One computer the size of a world could answer questions no smaller machine could, though it serves whoever owns it and not everyone.
Who is paid. I assume only a government could pay for such a work, and since size alone does not stop others building one the firms that already build large works for governments collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Introspection
Unforeseen, Roger P. Graham · 1949
A robot mind that develops over time and comes to understand its own workings.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A machine mind that understands its own workings can explain and correct itself, which makes thinking machines far safer to put to work.
Who is paid. Robot makers pay to have it and sell it inside their robots, and I assume others could learn the method once it was shown to work, so the robot makers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Visiglobe
Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949
A ball-shaped screen that shows a scene in full depth from any side.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A ball that shows a scene in full depth is a striking kind of screen but does little a flat one cannot.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it for show and entertainment, and since it is easy to copy, the firms that already own screen factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Communication, media and displays · 30
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bifocal TV Screen Lenses
Doom Over Venus, Edmond Hamilton · 1940
Eyeglasses whose lower half doubles as a small video display.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A screen in your glasses, working as promised, would take over much of what people now do on handheld screens.
Who is paid. People buy them for themselves, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hush-a-Phone
The Roads Must Roll, Robert Heinlein · 1940
A mouthpiece attachment for phones that keeps a caller's voice private and cuts room noise.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A mouthpiece that keeps a call private and cuts room noise is a minor convenience.
Who is paid. Callers buy it as an add-on and it is a simple shaped part anyone can make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pocket-Caller
The Worlds of Tomorrow, Manly Wade Wellman · 1940
A small private phone that fits in a pocket.
built in the 1970s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A phone carried everywhere changes how most people live and work.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; handsets are easy to copy, so the firms that own the networks and airwaves collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Soft Speaker
The Exhalted, L. Sprague de Camp · 1940
A speaker that aims sound in a narrow beam at one listener.
built in the 2000s, about 60 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Sound aimed at one listener is useful in shops, museums and cars but few people need it.
Who is paid. Shops and exhibit makers buy it, and since many can make such a speaker, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Synthetic Voice
The Amazon Fights Again, Thornton Ayre · 1940
Machine-made speech that sounds like a person talking.
built in the 1970s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Machines that speak like people let firms answer calls, read text aloud and voice their products without hiring speakers.
Who is paid. Firms buy it to build into their own products and services, and since many can make a talking machine, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Trumpaphone
The Voyage That Lasted 600 Years, Don Wilcox · 1940
A blaring musical horn with a harsh metallic sound.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A loud, harsh horn is one more musical instrument for the few who want it.
Who is paid. Players buy it, and since any instrument maker could build one, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Voder
Exit From Asteroid 60, D.L. James · 1940
A machine that generates spoken words without any human voice.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Machines that speak like people let firms answer calls, read text aloud and voice their products without hiring speakers.
Who is paid. Firms buy it to build into their own products and services, and since many can make a talking machine, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bone Conduction Receiver
Sixth Column, Anson MacDonald · 1941
A hidden radio earpiece that sends sound through the skull bones.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Hearing through the skull bones suits a few uses, here a hidden earpiece, but for most it is one more kind of earphone.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves and the vibrating part is simple to make, so many firms sell it and none keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Chatterbox' News-Receptor
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
A home receiver that plays news broadcasts with no filtering of what comes through.
built in the 2010s, about 70 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A news receiver in every home is the home end of broadcasting, which is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Unlike the broadcasting itself, this is the set in the home, which households buy and many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Identification Beacon
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
A radio signal that tells others which craft is in orbit.
already existed before the story (the 1930s)
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A signal that says which craft is which is a safety fitting, needed but minor.
Who is paid. Craft operators buy it because rules require it, and it is a simple radio many firms make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Newsbox (News-Receptor)
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
A viewer that scans broadcast programs and pulls up reports mentioning chosen keywords.
built in the 2010s, about 70 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A home receiver that picks out the reports its owner cares about is the home end of broadcasting, which is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Unlike a tailored news service, this is the set in the home, which households buy and many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Music
The Robot God, Ray Cummings · 1941
Songs both composed and played by machines with no human performers.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Songs written and played with no human performers remove the main cost of the music trade.
Who is paid. Listeners pay, and unlike a machine voice singing songs someone owns, once machines can write the songs as well anyone can run them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wall Screen
Star of Dreams, Jack Williamson · 1941
A video display as big as a wall, or built in as the wall itself.
built in the 2000s, about 60 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A thin screen for the wall is the form nearly every display now takes and is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Interplanetary Communications Center
QRM - Interplanetary, George O. Smith · 1942
A central relay network that routes messages among settlements throughout the solar system.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Assuming the planets are settled as in the story, a message link among them carries all their trade and news, an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Assuming firms and settlers pay by the message, nothing described stops a rival from building its own stations, so the carriers and fleet owners who already hold the home networks where every message starts and ends, and the ships to place and tend stations, collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
News Roundup
Beyond This Horizon, Robert Heinlein · 1942
Shows short summaries of current stories and lets you open any one for more.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Short summaries that open into the full story are a handier way to read the news people already get.
Who is paid. Readers pay, the layout is easy to copy, and the news firms that already gather the reports collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Telaudiogram
The World With A Thousand Moons, Edmond Hamilton · 1942
A method for sending voice and text messages across distances between planets.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Carrying messages between ships and worlds would be a telegraph industry for a settled solar system, assuming there are many people out there to serve.
Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations, ship owners and firms trading between worlds pay for the traffic, the link is ordinary radio that others could build, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Venus Equilateral Relay Station
QRM - Interplanetary, George O. Smith · 1942
A hollowed space rock turned into a hub that passes messages among planets.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A hub that passes messages among the planets would be the telegraph exchange of a settled solar system, assuming many people live out there.
Who is paid. Firms trading between worlds pay by the message, the description does not say the spot is the only one that would serve, so a rival hub could be built, and the carriers and fleet owners who already hold the home networks and the ships to tend a station collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Filmag
Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943
A periodical published as moving pictures rather than print.
built in the 2000s, about 60 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A magazine in moving pictures is one more form of entertainment among many.
Who is paid. Viewers buy or subscribe, anyone can film one, and the publishers who already have the readers and the names collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Micro Book (Microbook)
One Way Trip, Anthony Boucher · 1943
A tiny compact volume, perhaps an early electronic reader.
built in the 1990s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Assuming it is an electronic reader and not merely a very small printed book, it changes what it costs to publish, ship and store books.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the device is easy to copy, so the publishers and shops that already own the books and papers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Polyfrequency Neutralizer
Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943
A device that cancels projected three-dimensional images, making them vanish.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A device that wipes out projected images is a niche tool against trickery.
Who is paid. I assumed police and armies want it, so a government pays its usual equipment suppliers.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Solidograph
Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943
Beams solid-looking three-dimensional pictures to far-off places.
built in the 2010s, about 70 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Sending a lifelike solid picture of a person or place far away would be worth an industry of its own; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.
Who is paid. Households pay for the sets and the service, and as the projector could be copied, the firms that already own the networks and factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Telesolidograph
Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943
Sends lifelike three-dimensional projections across very long ranges.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Sending a lifelike solid picture of a person or place far away would be worth an industry of its own; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.
Who is paid. Households pay for the sets and the service, and as the projector could be copied, the firms that already own the networks and factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Viewscreen Pentagon
Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943
A central five-sided screen ringed by square monitors fixed along its edges.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. One odd arrangement of screens round a many-sided centre is a control-room fitting, not a new kind of thing.
Who is paid. Operators of ships or control rooms buy it, and since it is only ordinary screens set in a frame, the firms that already own the screen factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Suit-Radio
The Long Way, George O. Smith · 1944
A radio built into a spacesuit so two people working outside can talk.
built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A radio in a spacesuit is a needed part for the few people who work outside a ship.
Who is paid. Space agencies pay for it as part of the suit, and since it is an ordinary radio, the firms that already hold the suit contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sleeve Communicator
First Contact, Murray Leinster · 1945
Controls for gadgets woven into the cuff of a garment.
built in 1983, 38 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Controls woven into a cuff are a convenience.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it and any clothing or gadget maker could add them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vision Plate
First Contact, Murray Leinster · 1945
A thin flat screen for showing pictures and video.
built in 1964, 19 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A thin screen for the wall is the form nearly every display now takes and is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Spotcast
The Little Things, Henry Kuttner · 1946
A new medium that sends one message out to many receivers at once.
built since, date unclear
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A new way to send one message to many receivers at once is a broadcasting industry of its own.
Who is paid. Advertisers and news firms pay to reach the crowd, the description names no scarce channels and others could copy the method, so the firms that already own the audiences, the programmes and the stations collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Portable Telephone
Space Cadet, Robert Heinlein · 1948
A phone small enough to carry around and use away from any wire.
built in the 1970s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A phone carried everywhere changes how most people live and work.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; handsets are easy to copy, so the firms that own the networks and airwaves collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Solidograph-Projector
Police Operation, H. Beam Piper · 1948
A projector that casts a solid-looking image of a thing or person into the room.
built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A picture with true depth standing in the room would replace the flat screen and be worth an industry of its own; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.
Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Telepath Transmitter
Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949
A long-range sender that carries messages mind to mind.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Sending messages straight from mind to mind over long range, judged as if it worked, would be a new kind of phone service worth an industry.
Who is paid. I assume ordinary people would pay for it like a phone, and once one sender had been built others could copy it, so the firms that already own the networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Robotics and automation · 28
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gesturing Robot
Robbie, Isaac Asimov · 1940
A robot that talks with people through body movements and hand signs rather than speech.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Talking through gestures instead of speech is a feature of a robot, not a reason to buy it.
Who is paid. Families pay for it only within the price of a home robot, and any maker could add it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robbie
Robbie, Isaac Asimov · 1940
A robot that looks after and plays with young children.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Reliable care and play for young children at home would be worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Families buy it, and since they are assumed to trust only known names with their children the established makers with strong brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Talking Robot
Robbie, Isaac Asimov · 1940
A speaking mechanical figure built for show rather than useful work.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A speaking figure built for show draws a crowd but does no useful work, a niche.
Who is paid. Showmen and exhibitors buy it, and many makers could build one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Charging Arm
Masters of Chance, William Morrison · 1941
A limb a robot uses to plug itself in and top up its own battery.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Topping up its own battery is a useful feature of a machine, not a product people seek for itself.
Who is paid. Firms that run robots or pilotless craft pay for it as part of the machine, and any maker can add it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Floating Robot
The Floating Robot, David Wright O'Brien · 1941
A robot that hovers above the ground instead of walking or rolling.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Hovering instead of walking is a way of getting about, and the description gives the robot no job.
Who is paid. Firms are assumed to buy it for work over rough floors, and once hovering works others could copy it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Golden Shuttles (Mechanical Mice)
The Mechanical Mice, Maurice G. Hugi · 1941
Tiny machines that hunt down and consume clockwork components.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Tiny machines that hunt and eat clockwork are a pest in the story, doing only harm and serving no owner the description names.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robopark
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
A garage where machines store and retrieve cars without drivers.
built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A garage that parks and fetches cars by machine saves space and time in crowded cities, a convenience where the real thing exists.
Who is paid. Garage owners buy the machinery, and many firms can make it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Mother
The Mechanical Mice, Maurice G. Hugi · 1941
A machine that builds its own swarm of adaptable assistant machines.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A machine that builds its own crew of helper machines could take over whole jobs, judged as large and not vast because it builds helpers and not copies of itself.
Who is paid. Firms buy it for their work, and since the design can be copied the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Roboticist
Robot AL-76 Goes Astray, Isaac Asimov · 1941
An engineer who builds or looks after robots.
built since, date unclear
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. An engineer who builds and looks after robots sells a skilled service that every owner of robots would need, judged here as the trade that serves the robot industry.
Who is paid. Firms that make or own robots pay for the work, and it is a skill many people can learn, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robotics
Liar, Isaac Asimov · 1941
The discipline of designing, building and servicing robots.
built since, date unclear
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A discipline has no price of its own, so it is judged as the work its practitioners sell, the designing, building and servicing of robots, which serves the robot industry.
Who is paid. Firms that make or own robots pay for the work, and the knowledge is assumed to be taught openly so that many can learn it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Fairy Digits (Tiny Waldoes)
Waldo, Robert Heinlein · 1942
Miniature remote-controlled hands that copy an operator's motions at very small scale.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Tiny hands that copy an operator would open up very fine assembly and surgery.
Who is paid. Factories and hospitals buy them, and as scaled-down remote hands can be copied the established makers of precision and medical equipment collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pilot-Robot
Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942
Automatic steering equipment that flies a small work vessel in space.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Automatic steering for a small work vessel is a fitting, valued as part of the craft.
Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the price of the craft, and any shipbuilder can fit it, so nothing more is kept for it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wabbler
The Wabbler, Murray Leinster · 1942
A self-guided machine that moves and operates beneath the sea without a crew.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A machine that guides itself under the sea with no crew would lower the cost of work under water; the description names no task, so that use is assumed.
Who is paid. Offshore firms are assumed to buy it, and since many could build one the marine-equipment makers with yards and fleets collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Waldo
Waldo, Robert Heinlein · 1942
A remote manipulator that reproduces the movements of an operator's hands on a mechanical pair.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Mechanical hands that copy an operator's hands from afar are a useful tool for dangerous or awkward work, a niche where the real thing exists.
Who is paid. Firms buy it for their own work, and such hands and controls are easy for many makers to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Chef
Robinc, Anthony Boucher · 1943
A machine that invents and prepares meals entirely by itself.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A machine that invents and cooks meals by itself, assumed here to be for the home, would take over the large daily chore.
Who is paid. Families buy it, and since it can be copied the kitchen-appliance makers with factories, shops and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Taste Buds
Robinc, Anthony Boucher · 1943
A sensor that lets a machine sample flavors the way a human tongue does.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A sensor that tastes as a tongue does is a feature that lets a machine cook or test food.
Who is paid. Robot makers pay for it as a part of the machines they sell to firms, and any of them could fit it, so nothing extra is kept.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sea Robot
The Metal Monster (Jarvis), E.K. Jarvis · 1943
A huge machine built to operate underwater in the open ocean.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A huge machine that works in the open ocean would lower the cost of building, mining and repair under the sea, assuming that is its use.
Who is paid. Offshore firms buy it, and since many could build one the marine-equipment makers with yards and fleets collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Usuform Robot
Q.U.R., Anthony Boucher · 1943
A machine shaped purely for the job it does rather than to look human.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A robot shaped for the job it does is by its design a machine for a single trade and not the worker that can do most things, so each kind changes the costs of its own industry.
Who is paid. Firms buy them as equipment for their trade, and since many could build them the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Usuform Robot Bartender
Q.U.R., Anthony Boucher · 1943
A drink-serving machine shaped only by its task, not like a person.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A machine shaped only to serve drinks takes over a single job in the bar trade, a convenience and not a whole premises run with no staff.
Who is paid. Bar owners buy it, and a drink-serving machine is easy for many makers to copy, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vastening
The Proud Robot, Lewis Padgett · 1943
A machine sense that perceives the world in a way humans lack words for.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A sense people have no words for is a feature of a machine, and the description does not say what it is good for.
Who is paid. Robot makers pay for it as a part of the machines they sell to firms, and any of them could fit it, so nothing extra is kept.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Automatic Massager
Far Centaurus, A.E. van Vogt · 1944
A robot with mechanical arms and hands that gives full-body massages without a therapist.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A machine massage is a comfort, not a need.
Who is paid. Spas and gyms are assumed to buy it, and mechanical arms of this kind are easy for many makers to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Multiple Robot Team
Catch That Rabbit, Isaac Asimov · 1944
A lead robot directs a crew of simpler helper robots so the group works together on one job.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A crew of robots led by one of their own could take over whole jobs in mines and plants.
Who is paid. Firms buy the crew, and since the robots and their way of working together can be copied the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robotic Arm
City, Clifford Simak · 1944
A mechanical limb that reaches out and grips objects.
built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A limb that reaches and grips is a useful tool for awkward jobs, taken here as a simple gripper and so a niche.
Who is paid. Firms buy it for their own work, and such arms are easy for many makers to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mining Worm (Robot)
Love Among The Robots, Emmett McDowell · 1946
A long, segmented self-directed machine that burrows through rock to dig out ore.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Digging out ore with no crew would cut the cost of mining and earthworks.
Who is paid. Mining and building firms buy them, and the heavy-equipment makers who already supply those firms can copy the idea and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Cat
The Cat and the King, Raymond F. Jones · 1946
A living house cat whose body has been partly rebuilt with machine components.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A house cat partly rebuilt with machine parts is judged as a pet kept alive or improved, a niche.
Who is paid. Pet owners pay, and once the work is shown many workshops and animal doctors could do it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Roboticist
Evidence, Isaac Asimov · 1946
A profession devoted to designing, building and studying robots.
built since, date unclear
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A profession that designs, builds and studies robots sells a skilled service that every maker and owner of robots would need, judged here as the trade that serves the robot industry.
Who is paid. Firms that make or own robots pay for the work, and it is a skill many people can learn, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Machine Servant
The Star of Life, Edmond Hamilton · 1947
A household helper robot on wheels with flexible jointed arms for chores.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A machine that takes over housework would be worth an industry of its own, though it serves the home alone and not work at large.
Who is paid. Families buy it like any large appliance, and it is easy enough to copy that the appliance makers with factories, shops and trusted brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mechanical Funeral
The Coffin, Ray Bradbury · 1947
A burial ceremony carried out entirely by machines with no human staff.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A burial run by machines saves the staff of a narrow trade, where staff are assumed to be a lesser part of what families pay for.
Who is paid. Funeral firms buy the machinery, and nothing in it would be hard for many makers to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Medicine, biotech and longevity · 21
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Merry-Go-Round Life Suspension (Refrigerator Plant)
The Voyage That Lasted 600 Years, Don Wilcox · 1940
Refrigerated equipment that keeps people in a frozen sleep for long stretches.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Frozen sleep for long stretches would open long voyages and change their costs.
Who is paid. Voyage operators pay, and makers of cooling plant collect since the equipment can be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Methuen Treatment
The Exhalted, L. Sprague de Camp · 1940
Shots that raise mental ability.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Raising mental ability would be wanted by a great many people; assumed the gain is real but modest.
Who is paid. People pay for the shots, and the developer keeps the gain because a new medicine is protected from copying.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tectogenetic
Crisis in Utopia, Norman L. Knight · 1940
Deliberately editing genomes to create entirely new kinds of living organisms.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Making new kinds of living things to order would serve farming, medicine and industry.
Who is paid. Firms would buy such organisms for their work, and once the method was known other laboratories could repeat it, so established seed, chemical and drug makers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cold-Rest
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
Chilling a person so their bodily processes slow into a deep dormant rest.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Putting people safely into long dormancy would make very long journeys possible and give hospitals time to treat the gravely ill.
Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cold-Sleep
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
Putting a person into a chilled, slowed-down state like an animal's winter dormancy.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Putting people safely into long dormancy would make very long journeys possible and give hospitals time to treat the gravely ill.
Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dewlog
The Traitor, Kurt von Rachen · 1941
A medicine that, as a side effect, almost wipes out the feeling of hunger.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A medicine that nearly removes hunger would be wanted by a great many people trying to lose weight.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and a new treatment is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps much of the gain.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Howard Families
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
A scheme of selective marriages meant to breed a line of people who live very long.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A scheme of chosen marriages is a private arrangement, not a product anyone can buy.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Moon-Terror
Star of Dreams, Jack Williamson · 1941
A condition that afflicts people living long-term under weak gravity.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is an illness of life under weak gravity, not something made or sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sleep Surrogate
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
A medicine that fully restores the body and brain after missed sleep, as if one had slept.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Standing in fully for sleep would hand nearly every adult many more waking hours, changing how most people live and work.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and a new drug is protected from copying for a long while, so its maker keeps much of the gain.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vanwinkling
The Best-Laid Scheme, L. Sprague de Camp · 1941
Skipping ahead in time by sleeping through the years to wake in a later age.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The name is of the practice, so the thing judged is the long sleep behind it, which belongs with other forms of long dormancy.
Who is paid. I assumed firms that run sleep vaults buy the equipment and charge the sleepers; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run such premises collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Young Blood - New Blood For Old
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
Swapping the fluid part of an elderly person's blood for fluid from youthful donors.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Holding off old age meets about the deepest need there is, and nearly everyone alive would want it.
Who is paid. People would pay for themselves; unlike a drug this is a procedure any clinic could learn, so established clinics and blood services that can find donors collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gravanol
QRM - Interplanetary, George O. Smith · 1942
A drug that helps the body withstand strong acceleration during spaceflight.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It serves only people who work in space or under unusual gravity, which is a niche.
Who is paid. I assumed employers and space carriers buy it for their crews; a new drug is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what little is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gravitation Paralysis
The World With A Thousand Moons, Edmond Hamilton · 1942
A disease that strikes travelers who move abruptly from feeble to heavy gravity.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a disease, not a technology.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sobriety Ray
The Twonky, Lewis Padgett · 1942
A beam of light that instantly clears intoxication from anyone it strikes.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Clearing drunkenness in a moment is a convenience for drinkers and those who deal with them.
Who is paid. I assumed drinkers and bars buy it; unlike a sobering pill this is a device others could copy, so established makers of such equipment collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Eternity Drug
Far Centaurus, A.E. van Vogt · 1944
A medicine that puts someone into a dormant sleep lasting decades, used to survive very long voyages.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Sleeping through a very long voyage would make such journeys possible, as with other forms of long dormancy.
Who is paid. I assumed carriers buy it for their crews; unlike a sleep chamber this is a drug, which is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Life Blanket
Ogre, Clifford Simak · 1944
A living mat of plant life that gains awareness when worn and serves its host.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a living creature in the story, not a technology anyone makes and sells.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mal de Void
Off the Beam, George O. Smith · 1944
Nausea and disorientation that travelers suffer in weightless flight.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a sickness travellers suffer, not something made or sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vitalizer
The Soma Racks, Margaret St. Clair · 1947
A commercial pick-me-up sold to people who feel worn out.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A lift for people who feel worn out is something a great many would buy.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and I assumed it is a stimulant of an old kind many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Emergency Treatment Tank (Chamber)
Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949
A sealed pod that heals and regrows an injured body.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Regrowing lost or ruined tissue would change what hospitals can do for the badly injured.
Who is paid. I assumed hospitals buy and run it; once it worked other makers could copy it, so established medical equipment firms and hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Plastiskin
Unforeseen, Roger P. Graham · 1949
A synthetic covering that makes a prosthetic limb look like real flesh.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A lifelike cover for an artificial limb is a comfort for a limited group.
Who is paid. Wearers pay, and established makers of artificial limbs collect since the covering is easy to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Space Scurvy (Kenoalgia)
Sacred Martian Pig (Idris' Pig), Margaret St. Clair · 1949
A fictional illness that wears down people on long space journeys.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is an illness, not a technology.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Mind and neurotechnology · 21
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dream-Adventures
Doom Over Venus, Edmond Hamilton · 1940
Entertainment experiences fed straight into the sleeping mind, rivalling cinema as popular leisure.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Stories lived as experience would rival film and games as popular leisure, as the story promises.
Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay for each experience, the machine could be copied, and the studios that own the stories and the names people know would collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dream-House
Doom Over Venus, Edmond Hamilton · 1940
A venue where customers have vivid adventure dreams planted in their heads.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. This is the venue rather than the machine, but it sells the same thing: dreamed adventures that rival film as popular leisure.
Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay for each experience, the machine could be copied, and the studios that own the stories and the names people know would collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dream-Machine
Doom Over Venus, Edmond Hamilton · 1940
A machine that broadcasts identical mass-produced dreams into sleepers' heads.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Stories lived as experience would rival film and games as popular leisure, as the story promises.
Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay for each experience, the machine could be copied, and the studios that own the stories and the names people know would collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mind-Shield
Slan, A.E. van Vogt · 1940
A barrier that keeps other minds or machines from reading or entering someone's thoughts.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It only matters where minds can be read, and then it guards privacy much as a lock does.
Who is paid. I assume the barrier is a made or taught thing, which the description does not say; people who fear being read would buy it and many could supply it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
San-Ray Projector
Hell Ship of Space, Frederic Arnold Kummer, Jr. · 1940
A beam that gives a pleasant nervous thrill, fogs thinking and leaves users craving more.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A thrill that leaves users craving more would draw a large and steady demand, as strong drugs do.
Who is paid. Users would buy it for themselves, legal or not, and it is simple enough that many makers could supply it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Group Ego
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
Merges several people's bodies under one shared consciousness that thinks and acts as a single self.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. I took this to be a merged way of being for a group of people, with no made device named, so not a thing that can be made and sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hypnosis Ray
Beyond All Weapons, Eric Frank Russell · 1941
A beam that plants a leader's message into the heads of easily fooled people.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Swaying a whole population at once would be worth a great deal to any ruler who wanted it.
Who is paid. A government would pay, and once the device existed the firms that already build broadcasting and security gear could copy it and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hypnotic injunction
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
Uses trance suggestion to block a person from disclosing chosen secrets.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Blocking a person from telling chosen secrets is a narrow tool for guarding them.
Who is paid. I assumed a state or a great house of power pays for it, and though it is a technique rather than a machine, the security services and their usual suppliers would do the work and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Improve Memory
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
Treatment that helps very long-lived people organise and understand what they remember.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Sorting the memories of a very long life only matters to people who live that long, a niche unless long life comes too.
Who is paid. The long-lived would pay for it themselves, and it is a method any trained person could offer, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Thought-Screen
Gray Lensman, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1942
A shield that stops outside minds from seizing control of your thinking.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It only matters where minds can be seized, and then it guards a person much as a lock does.
Who is paid. People who fear being read would buy it for themselves, assuming it is sold openly, and it is simple enough for many makers to copy, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vestan Parasite
The World With A Thousand Moons, Edmond Hamilton · 1942
Partly thinking organisms that seize command of other animals' nervous systems.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a creature that preys on other animals, a hazard and not something made to be sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is made or sold here, so there is no buyer and no seller.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mixed Men
The Storm, A.E. van Vogt · 1943
People who are largely human but carry an added mechanical brain alongside their own.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. An added machine brain working beside the natural one would be an industry of its own, though the description does not say what the extra brain does.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and since the implant could be copied the firms that already run the networks and do the surgery would collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Personality Alteration
Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943
Methods for permanently remaking someone's character and temperament.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Remaking a person's character for good would be an industry of its own for those unhappy with who they are.
Who is paid. The description does not say whether the subject is willing; I assume people seek it for themselves and pay, and the clinics that already treat the mind would collect since the methods could be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Psychoscanner
Propagandist, Murray Leinster · 1947
A machine that reads memories and emotions out of a living brain, human or animal.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Reading memories and feelings out of any living brain would reshape questioning and the study of animals alike.
Who is paid. It is worked by an operator on a subject, human or animal, so I assume the state and its services are the main buyers, and the firms that already supply them would collect since it could be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Brain Erasure
The Knowledge Machine, Edmond Hamilton · 1948
Removing chosen memories from someone's brain with electric pulses.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Removing chosen memories would treat trauma and grief for a great many people, worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, the method could be copied once known, and the clinics and medicine firms already trusted with such care would collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Electro-Education
The Knowledge Machine, Edmond Hamilton · 1948
Teaching people by stimulating their brains with electricity.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Putting knowledge straight into the brain would replace years of schooling and training for most people.
Who is paid. Families and learners would pay for it themselves, and once one firm had built the gear others could copy it and many could write the lessons, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Learning-Cap
The Knowledge Machine, Edmond Hamilton · 1948
A helmet that feeds knowledge into the brain through electrical stimulation.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Putting knowledge straight into the brain would replace years of schooling and training for most people.
Who is paid. Families and learners would pay for it themselves, and once one firm had built the gear others could copy it and many could write the lessons, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Precog (v)
Police Operation, H. Beam Piper · 1948
The act of perceiving events before they happen.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is the act of using a born gift, not something made or taught that could be sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is made or sold here, so there is no buyer and no seller.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mind-Lock
Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949
A shield that seals off a person's thoughts from outside mental contact.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It only matters where minds can be read, and then it guards privacy much as a lock does.
Who is paid. People who fear being read would buy it for themselves, assuming it is sold openly, and it is simple enough for many makers to copy, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mind-Parasite
Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949
A fictional organism in the story that seizes control of a host's mind.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a creature that preys on people, a hazard and not something made to be sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is made or sold here, so there is no buyer and no seller.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Quizzer
Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949
A self-operating device that interrogates a person's mind.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A machine that questions a mind by itself would reshape police work and spying.
Who is paid. It is done to a subject, so though banned in the story it is judged as bought by a state: the state would pay for it as an interrogation tool, and since it could be copied the firms that already supply police and security services would collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Transport and mobility · 20
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Air Scooter
Space Double, Nat Schachner · 1940
A one-person craft that lets its rider fly short hops through the air.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The description promises only short hops, so it is a sport and a convenience rather than a way most people would travel.
Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Rocket-Belt
The Worlds of Tomorrow, Manly Wade Wellman · 1940
A one-person thrust pack worn on the body for flight.
built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Free personal flight with no limit stated would be an industry of its own, replacing many trips now made by car.
Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Rolling Road
The Roads Must Roll, Robert Heinlein · 1940
Bands of moving pavement at graded speeds that carry crowds across long distances.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Moving pavements that carry crowds over long distances would replace trains and roads on their routes, which would change the cost of travel there.
Who is paid. Governments pay for a public way of this size, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Steel Tortoise
Coventry, Robert Heinlein · 1940
A rugged armoured vehicle able to cross almost any ground.
built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. An armoured vehicle that crosses almost any ground is worth having for an army or an expedition, and few are needed.
Who is paid. I assume armies are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold army supply contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Stratospheric Traffic
The Great God Awto, Clark Ashton Smith · 1940
Congested air lanes where personal aircraft jam the sky at all altitudes.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Crowded air lanes are a nuisance that comes with personal aircraft, not a thing anyone would buy.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so there is no buyer and no seller.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tumblebug
The Roads Must Roll, Robert Heinlein · 1940
A motor vehicle that rides and balances on just one wheel.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A narrow self-balancing vehicle is a handy way round town but does little that a small car or motorbike does not.
Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Two-Wheeled Car
The Roads Must Roll, Robert Heinlein · 1940
A compact enclosed passenger vehicle riding on two wheels set in a single line.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A narrow self-balancing vehicle is a handy way round town but does little that a small car or motorbike does not.
Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bee Wing
Slacker's Paradise, Malcolm Jameson · 1941
An aircraft on the red planet that flies by beating its wings like an insect.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A flapping aircraft for the thin air of another planet serves only the few people living there.
Who is paid. Settlements and their suppliers buy it, and any aircraft workshop there could copy it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Camden Speedster
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
A road car that can also cross water and leap briefly into the air.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It is a road car with short hops over water and through the air added, which is a thrill more than a new way to travel.
Who is paid. Drivers buy it, and since it only leaps briefly rather than flies, it is an ordinary car feature that the makers with factories and dealers collect on.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Controlway
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
A highway that drives every car on it, taking over steering and speed.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A road that does the driving would give every car on it the gains of driverless travel, but only where such roads are built.
Who is paid. Governments pay for roads, and the control gear is not hard to copy, so the road builders and signalling suppliers that already hold public works contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flitter
Vortex Blaster, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1941
A small craft for quick hops over short distances.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The description promises only short hops, so it is a sport and a convenience rather than a way most people would travel.
Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Slidewalk
Sanity, Fritz Leiber · 1941
A moving belt that carries people along as they stand or stroll.
built in the 1950s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The walkway built in airports and large buildings turned out a convenience, but the story promises moving pavements in place of city streets, and that would replace buses and cars on their routes and change the cost of getting about a city.
Who is paid. I assume a town pays for it as a public way, as with the other moving streets, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Solar Car
The Man Who Bought Mars, Polton Cross · 1941
An automobile that runs on power gathered from sunlight.
built in the 1980s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A car that runs on sunlight alone needs no fuel or charging, which changes the cost of driving; the real thing gathers far less than the promise, and I judge the promise, as with the vehicle sun panels judged under energy.
Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Talking Speedometer
Biddiver, Theodore Sturgeon · 1941
An instrument that speaks its reading aloud instead of showing a dial.
built in the 1990s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A gauge that speaks its reading is a small extra for drivers.
Who is paid. Drivers pay for it with the car, and it is simple to make and fit, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Antigravity Plate (Antigravity Raft)
Co-Operate or Else, A.E. van Vogt · 1942
A thin disk that hovers by cancelling gravity.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Cancelling gravity would make lifting and moving heavy things far cheaper, which changes the costs of transport and building rather than meeting a basic need.
Who is paid. Firms that move and lift things buy it, and once it is built others could copy it, so the vehicle and aircraft makers that already own factories and customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Slideway
Beyond This Horizon, Robert Heinlein · 1942
A moving belt pavement that carries pedestrians along without walking.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The description calls it a pavement, so it is judged as a moving street and not as the walkway found in large buildings, and a street that carries its walkers would change the cost of getting about a city.
Who is paid. I assume a town pays for it as a public way, as with the other moving streets, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gyrocar Monorail
The Anarch, Malcolm Jameson · 1944
A vehicle that stays upright on one rail or two wheels using spinning gyroscopes.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Balancing upright on a lone rail makes the line cheaper to lay but carries people as trains already do.
Who is paid. I assume this one runs on a rail as public transport, so a city government pays, and the established railway builders collect because a gyroscope is easy to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Bus
The Little Things, Henry Kuttner · 1946
A driverless bus that carries passengers without a human at the wheel.
built in 2022, 76 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A bus with no driver to pay makes bus travel cheaper and more frequent, which would be an industry of its own.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the bus buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gyrocab
You Are Forbidden!, Jerry Shelton · 1947
A taxi that flies passengers through the air on rotors.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Hired flight across a city, working as promised, would be an industry of its own beside road cabs.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the air cab buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Skimmer
Lost Ulysses, W.L. Bade · 1949
A craft that glides just above the ground on a cushion of lift.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Riding on a cushion of lift suits marsh, shallows and ice but is noisier and thirstier than wheels elsewhere, so it stays a niche.
Who is paid. Operators buy it, and many builders can make a cushion craft, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Energy and power · 17
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Solar Power Screen
Let There Be Light, Lyle Monroe · 1940
A panel that soaks up sunlight and gives it back out as electric current.
built in the 1950s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Electricity straight from sunlight with no fuel would change what power costs.
Who is paid. Power firms and building owners buy panels, and since many factories can make them no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Solar Reception Screen
The Roads Must Roll, Robert Heinlein · 1940
A panel that turns the sun's light into electrical power.
built in the 1950s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Electricity straight from sunlight with no fuel would change what power costs.
Who is paid. Power firms and building owners buy panels, and since many factories can make them no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Solar Station Switch Room
Doom Over Venus, Edmond Hamilton · 1940
A central control hub routing electric power to settlements across many planets.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A hub that routes power to settlements on many planets is what makes their whole supply usable.
Who is paid. Only governments could fund a work this size, and whoever builds the one hub controls a link nobody else can match.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Solid Power
Revolt on the Tenth World, Edmond Hamilton · 1940
A compact solid store of energy that can be tapped easily to run anything.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A compact solid store that can run anything would change how nearly everything is powered and moved.
Who is paid. Firms of every kind buy it, assumed here to be the largest buyers, and it is assumed that something this far beyond present skill is very hard to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sunpower Screen
Coventry, Robert Heinlein · 1940
Panels of solar cells that power a vehicle.
built in the 1950s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A vehicle that runs on the sunlight falling on it would need no fuel, which changes what driving costs.
Who is paid. Here drivers buy a vehicle and not a bare panel, which is the difference from other panels, so the firms that already build and sell vehicles collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Quench Field
The Purple Light, E. Waldo Hunter · 1941
A field that halts a runaway chain reaction by soaking up its neutrons.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Judged as if it worked, a field that stops a runaway reaction is a safety device for the few sites that run nuclear plants.
Who is paid. Plant owners buy it, assuming it guards power plants and is not a defence against bombs, and a method this strange would be very hard for others to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Solar Energy Beam
Masquerade, Clifford Simak · 1941
A power plant close to the sun that beams energy out to distant worlds.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A plant near the sun sending power to distant worlds would supply whole settlements that have no other source.
Who is paid. Only governments could fund a work this size for whole settlements, and whoever builds the one station controls a supply nobody else can match.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Solar Station
Reason, Isaac Asimov · 1941
Satellites collect sunlight in orbit and transmit the power to receivers on a planet's surface.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Sunlight collected in orbit and sent down day and night would change what power costs on the ground.
Who is paid. Power companies buy the output, and the firms that already own rockets and the ground grid collect, assuming the collectors themselves can be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Thermatite
Jurisdiction, Nat Schachner · 1941
A mineable asteroid substance that stores raw energy as fuel.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Judged as if it existed, a mined rock that holds raw energy would be a fuel worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Fuel users buy it, assumed here to be firms, and whoever holds the few asteroid deposits controls a supply others cannot get.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Uranatomic
Backlash, Jack Williamson · 1941
A nuclear reactor whose fission heat is turned into electrical power.
built in the 1950s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Plentiful electricity from a little fuel would change what power costs, though the real thing turned out dearer than promised.
Who is paid. Power companies buy the plants, and because governments let only a few hands hold nuclear fuel, the few permitted makers keep what is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Atomics
Nerves, Lester del Rey · 1942
The engineering discipline of producing useful power from atomic nuclei.
built in 1942, 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The craft of making power from atoms is worth what its plants are worth, and plentiful power from a little fuel would change what electricity costs.
Who is paid. Power companies buy the plants this craft leads to, assumed here to be what is sold, and because governments let only a few hands hold nuclear fuel, the few permitted makers keep what is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Contraterrene Matter (Antimatter)
Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942
Matter built from antiparticles, which annihilates on contact with ordinary material.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Judged as a fuel that can be held safely, nothing would pack more energy into less weight, which is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. A substance this dangerous is assumed to be bought only by governments, and whoever can make and hold it controls something others cannot get.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Energy Converter
Runaround, Isaac Asimov · 1942
A giant plant on a hot planet's dayside turning heat into power and sending it across space.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Power sent across space from a hot world would supply whole settlements that have no other source.
Who is paid. Only governments could fund a work this size for whole settlements, and whoever builds the one station controls a supply nobody else can match.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Radiant Power Receptor (DeKalbs)
Waldo, Robert Heinlein · 1942
A receiver that captures energy beamed wirelessly from a distant station and turns it into usable power.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Receivers that take power sent through the air would change what it costs to deliver electricity.
Who is paid. Firms buy power for their machines, and since the trick is copyable the companies that already own power stations and the delivery network collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Solar Beam
The Long Way, George O. Smith · 1944
Draws energy from the sun through some direct link rather than capturing ordinary sunlight.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A direct draw on the sun's energy would change what power costs wherever it reaches.
Who is paid. Power users buy it, assumed here to be firms, and a method this strange would be very hard for others to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ship Hull Thermobatteries
The Ethical Equations, Murray Leinster · 1945
Energy storage built into a spacecraft's outer skin that recharges from sunlight.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A spacecraft skin that stores sunlight serves only the few who build spacecraft.
Who is paid. Spacecraft operators pay for it, and the firms that already build the craft collect because the part is useless without them.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Synchrophased Power Beams
Propagandist, Murray Leinster · 1947
Energy beams sent from several worlds and aimed together at one target.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Assuming the beams deliver power and are not a weapon, joining beams from several worlds would supply a place with no other source.
Who is paid. Only governments could fund a work this size for whole settlements, and whoever builds the one station controls a supply nobody else can match.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Materials, manufacturing and construction · 18
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Double-Pane Vacuum Window
The Achilles Heel, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1940
Glazing made of two glass sheets with empty space sealed between them.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Windows that hold heat in cut heating and cooling bills in most buildings, which is worth an industry.
Who is paid. Home owners and builders buy it, and any glass works can seal panes this way, so buyers keep the gain.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hyperbolic Solenoid
The Exhalted, L. Sprague de Camp · 1940
A coil apparatus that produces and shapes magnetic fields.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A coil that shapes magnetic fields is a part for laboratories and machines.
Who is paid. Laboratories and machine makers buy it, and many electrical firms can wind such a coil.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Silk-Metal
The Worlds of Tomorrow, Manly Wade Wellman · 1940
A woven cloth made partly of metal that is extremely hard to tear or cut.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Cloth that is very hard to tear or cut makes better protective clothing, which is a niche.
Who is paid. Employers buy it for workers, and the weave can be copied, so established workwear and textile firms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Slow Glass Rod
The Exhalted, L. Sprague de Camp · 1940
A clear rod in which light moves so sluggishly that it stays held inside.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A rod that holds light inside has no use named, so I assumed it serves as a store of light or a curiosity.
Who is paid. Instrument and lighting makers might buy it, and nothing in the description stops many glass firms making it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Synthetic Flesh
The Amazon Fights Again, Thornton Ayre · 1940
Artificial skin-like material used to alter someone's appearance.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A skin-like material that changes how someone looks serves actors and spies, which is a niche.
Who is paid. Stage and film firms buy it, assuming open sale and that spy services are a minor buyer, and many firms could make such a skin.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Telelubricator
The Exhalted, L. Sprague de Camp · 1940
Removes all friction from whatever surface or material it targets.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Removing all friction from a chosen surface would cut wear and wasted energy in machines everywhere.
Who is paid. Machine owners buy it, assuming it is a tool and not a weapon, and once one firm builds it established equipment makers copy and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vacuum Wall Compartments
The Achilles Heel, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1940
Walls with sealed empty gaps inside that block the passage of heat.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Walls with sealed empty gaps keep heat in and would cut the cost of heating and cooling buildings.
Who is paid. Home owners pay for it in their walls, and the idea is simple for any builder to copy, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hell-Stone
Star of Dreams, Jack Williamson · 1941
An extraordinarily lovely and scarce gemstone.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A rare and lovely gem is a luxury for a few.
Who is paid. Wealthy people buy it, and whoever holds the scarce source controls something others cannot get.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Instant Customized Clothing
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
A machine that makes a chosen garment on demand, while the customer waits.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A chosen garment made while the customer waits would change the clothing trade's costs and waste.
Who is paid. People buy the clothes, and the machines can be copied, so clothing brands and shops with customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Black Coating
Gray Lensman, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1942
A surface layer so dark it soaks up almost every ray of light that hits it.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A coating that soaks up nearly all light helps telescopes, cameras and a few design uses, which is a niche.
Who is paid. Instrument makers buy it, and a coating can be studied and matched by many paint and chemical firms, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Plastifoam
Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942
Expanding foam sprayed to plug big breaches in a spacecraft hull.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Stopping air escaping through a hull breach is a vital repair supply for ship operators, not an industry.
Who is paid. Ship operators buy it, and a foam is easy for many chemical firms to match, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Aladur
Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943
A light material with very great pulling strength.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A light material of very great pulling strength would change the cost of cables, aircraft and structures.
Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Durasteel
Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943
An alloy that outlasts ordinary steel under wear and stress.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. An alloy that outlasts steel would cut replacement and upkeep costs in machines and structures.
Who is paid. Makers of machines and buildings buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established metal makers with furnaces and customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Impervium
Clash by Night, Lawrence O'Donnell · 1943
A substance nothing can pierce or destroy.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A substance nothing can pierce or destroy would be worth an industry in armour, vaults, vessels and containment.
Who is paid. Builders of vehicles and strongrooms buy it, and nothing in the description stops a second maker: a thing being hard to cut open and study does not keep others from learning to make it, so the established materials firms collect as they do with the tough alloys.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Plastic Constructor (3D Printer)
Things Pass By, Murray Leinster · 1945
An additive fabrication machine that builds spacecraft parts layer by layer from plastic.
built in 1984, 39 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Building spacecraft parts layer by layer saves stock and tooling for one industry; it is confined to plastic parts, so it is not a make-anything machine.
Who is paid. Manufacturers buy it, and the real machines proved easy for many firms to build, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Herculoy
The Howling Bounders, Jack Vance · 1949
An exceptionally tough metal blend used in construction.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. An exceptionally tough building metal would cut replacement and upkeep costs in structures.
Who is paid. Builders buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established metal makers with furnaces and customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Resilian
The Howling Bounders, Jack Vance · 1949
A plant or animal fibre with the toughness of metal.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A natural fibre as tough as metal would change ropes, cloth and light structures.
Who is paid. Manufacturers buy it, and a plant or animal can be bred by others, so the big fibre and textile firms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vivo-Gel
Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949
A jelly-like substance that is partly alive.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A partly living jelly has no use named, so I assumed a minor one such as padding or dressing.
Who is paid. Firms might buy it for such uses, and a living material can be grown by many, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Weapons and warfare · 34
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Atom-Gun
Revolt on the Tenth World, Edmond Hamilton · 1940
A hand weapon that sprays out nuclear flame.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Assuming a soldier carries it, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Atomic Automatic
Revolt on Io, Jack West · 1940
A gun that fires small self-propelled rocket rounds.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It is one more kind of firearm, a modest step over the guns armies already carry.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Atomic Blast Weapon
The Achilles Heel, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1940
A weapon that breaks whatever it hits down completely into loose atoms.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a weapon that destroys whatever it strikes leaves no armour, wall or hull able to protect, which would change how wars are fought.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and assuming rival makers learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Autosight Achronic Beam
Hindsight, Jack Williamson · 1940
A weapon aiming beam that works outside time for perfect accuracy.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Judged as if it worked, a beam that aims a weapon perfectly is an aiming aid fitted to guns, and guided weapons already come close.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and assuming rival makers learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Conversion Gun
Hell Ship of Space, Frederic Arnold Kummer, Jr. · 1940
A beam weapon that turns a target's warmth into emitted light, chilling it.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Judged as if it worked, and assuming a soldier carries it, a beam that chills its target does much the same job as a gun.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and assuming rival makers learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Death-Capsule
Doom Over Venus, Edmond Hamilton · 1940
A tiny explosive planted inside a body that can be set off from afar.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A bomb planted inside a person to control them is a crime, not a product anyone may buy.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Electro-Automatic Pistol
The Worlds of Tomorrow, Manly Wade Wellman · 1940
A compact round handgun, small enough to carry in a pocket, fired electrically.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It is one more kind of firearm, a modest step over the guns armies already carry.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Paralysis Bomb
If This Goes On..., Robert Heinlein · 1940
A thrown explosive device giving off rays that leave people nearby unable to move.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a thrown device that leaves everyone nearby unable to move and unharmed does what no gun or grenade can, and police and armies everywhere would carry it.
Who is paid. Police forces and armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers could copy it once it was shown, the suppliers that already hold their contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Paralyzing Gun
The Achilles Heel, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1940
A handheld weapon that knocks out anyone caught in its beam.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a weapon that surely stops a person at a distance without harming them does what no gun can, and police and guards everywhere would carry it in place of firearms.
Who is paid. Police forces and armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers could copy it once it was shown, the suppliers that already hold their contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vibroblade
If This Goes On..., Robert Heinlein · 1940
A combat knife whose edge vibrates rapidly to cut.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A knife that cuts better is a small gain for the few who carry one.
Who is paid. As with other blades, a few people buy one for themselves, and assuming others can copy it once one is built, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
A-Bomb
Sixth Column, Anson MacDonald · 1941
A bomb whose blast comes from splitting heavy atomic nuclei.
built in 1945, 4 years after it was imagined
A large prizeA government pays; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A weapon that can end a war or prevent one is worth a great deal to the state that holds it.
Who is paid. Only governments pay for it, and only the handful of builders a state allows near the material may make it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Blastick
The Traitor, Kurt von Rachen · 1941
A handheld gun that fires a burning ray.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Assuming a soldier carries it, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Disinto
Robot AL-76 Goes Astray, Isaac Asimov · 1941
A beam that breaks matter apart into nothing.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a weapon that destroys whatever it strikes leaves no armour, wall or hull able to protect, which would change how wars are fought.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and assuming rival makers learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Energy Weapon
Seesaw, A.E. van Vogt · 1941
A directed-beam weapon that damages targets with concentrated energy rather than projectiles.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Assuming a soldier carries it, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Epileptigenic Ray
Sixth Column, Anson MacDonald · 1941
A beam that throws people into violent, uncontrollable muscle fits.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Assuming the fits pass without lasting harm, a beam that drops anyone at a distance without killing does what no gun can, and police and guards everywhere would carry it.
Who is paid. Police forces and armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers could copy it once it was shown, the suppliers that already hold their contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Metal Solvent Ray Thrower
Lost Rocket, Manly Wade Wellman · 1941
A space weapon that sprays a metal-dissolving stream at enemy hulls, like a torch.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Heavy beam weapons for warships would be a major line of arms spending for any space fleet.
Who is paid. Navies pay, and the yards and arms firms that already build and equip warships would fit them and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Paralyzing Eye
The Best-Laid Scheme, L. Sprague de Camp · 1941
An artificial eye hiding a mechanism that briefly freezes anyone it targets.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A freezing device hidden in a false eye is the paralysing weapon made for a spy or a lone wearer, a narrow use.
Who is paid. Assuming secret services are the buyers, they pay, and once others copy the method the suppliers they already use collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Roving Bomb
Lost Rocket, Manly Wade Wellman · 1941
A steerable explosive built for use in weightless space.
built in the 1940s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Munitions that steer themselves onto a target make each shot count and are a mainstay of what modern armies buy.
Who is paid. Armies pay, and since many engineering firms can build guidance, the missile and ammunition makers that already hold supply contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sleep Destroying Field
Biddiver, Theodore Sturgeon · 1941
A projected zone that keeps anyone inside from being able to fall asleep.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A field that stops everyone in an area from sleeping could wear down an enemy but has only that one narrow use.
Who is paid. Only an army would pay, and assuming rival makers learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Stunner
Fire-Power, S.D. Gottesman · 1941
A handheld gun that knocks a target out cold without killing them.
built in the 1970s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a weapon that surely stops a person at a distance without harming them does what no gun can, and police and guards everywhere would carry it in place of firearms.
Who is paid. Police forces and armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers could copy it once it was shown, the suppliers that already hold their contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Directrix Z9M9Z
Gray Lensman, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1942
A command vessel that coordinates the movements of an enormous war fleet in space.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Assuming wars are fought in space, warships for it would be an industry of their own.
Who is paid. Only governments field war fleets, and the few yards already able to build large spacecraft would win the orders.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Electric Wall
The World With A Thousand Moons, Edmond Hamilton · 1942
A barrier made of electrical energy that blocks passage like a solid wall.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a barrier that stops attacks would change how ships, bases and cities are defended.
Who is paid. Assuming it is bought for defence in war, governments pay, and assuming rivals learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Thermodyne Heat Ray
A Brand New World, Ray Cummings · 1942
Concentrates heat into a directed beam that can burn or harm a target.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Assuming a soldier carries it, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flame Barrier
The Storm, A.E. van Vogt · 1943
A protective barrier of energy that blocks attacks.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a barrier that stops attacks would change how ships, bases and cities are defended.
Who is paid. Assuming it is bought for defence in war, governments pay, and assuming rivals learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Force Pencil
Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943
A wrist-mounted device that projects a beam of pushing force.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Judged as if it worked, and assuming a soldier carries it, a beam that shoves or strikes does much the same job as a gun.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and assuming rival makers learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Inviolability Field
Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943
A protective energy barrier woven into a garment to guard its wearer.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a barrier that stops attacks would change how soldiers, ships and cities are defended, even when it guards one wearer.
Who is paid. Assuming it is bought for defence in war, governments pay, and assuming rivals learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pain Canopy
Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943
A hood that stimulates nerves directly to inflict pain during questioning.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It exists only to inflict suffering, and no one may lawfully buy or use such a thing.
Who is paid. Torture devices are outlawed for everyone, governments included, so nothing is sold and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Rod of Wrath
Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943
A blade formed from a beam of light used as a hand weapon.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Judged as if it worked, a blade of light loses to a gun as a weapon, so it is a prized object for a few buyers.
Who is paid. As with other blades, a few people buy one for themselves, and assuming others can copy it once one is built, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Battle Integrator
The Bureaucrat, Malcolm Jameson · 1944
A command display that shows a battle between spacecraft as a solid scene commanders can follow.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It helps commanders follow a fight but is one instrument among many on a warship.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Energy Screen
Far Centaurus, A.E. van Vogt · 1944
An invisible protective barrier made of energy.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a barrier that stops attacks would change how ships, bases and cities are defended.
Who is paid. Assuming it is bought for defence in war, governments pay, and assuming rivals learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Rust Ray Pistol
Gambler’s Asteroid, Manly Wade Wellman · 1944
A handgun whose beam turns hard iron and steel brittle and crumbling.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a beam that makes steel crumble would leave steel ships, vehicles and guns useless, which is more than a handheld beam that only kills.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and assuming rival makers learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Meteor Blasters
First Contact, Murray Leinster · 1945
Beams mounted on a spacecraft that clear rocks and debris out of its flight path.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Beams that clear rocks from a ship's path are a safety fitting, needed only once many ships fly fast through space.
Who is paid. Assuming most ships are run by carriers, they pay, and the shipbuilders who fit out the craft would supply the beams and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Planet-Smasher
Propagandist, Murray Leinster · 1947
A fictional weapon capable of wrecking a whole world, used as a threat in an interplanetary conflict.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeA government pays; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A weapon that can wreck a region or a world is worth a great deal to a state as a threat that keeps others from attacking, though it feeds or houses no one.
Who is paid. Only governments pay for it, and as with nuclear arms only the handful of builders a state allows near such a weapon may make it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Stationary Automatic Blaster
Red Planet, Robert Heinlein · 1949
A fixed automated gun post that guards an area in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A gun that guards a spot by itself saves some sentries but fills a narrow job within an army's kit.
Who is paid. Armies and border forces pay, and it is easy to copy from known parts, so the arms makers already supplying them collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Surveillance, identity and control · 10
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ferretscope
If This Goes On..., Robert Heinlein · 1940
A handheld detector that finds hidden microphones and bugs in a room.
built in the 1950s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Finding hidden recorders matters only to the few people and firms who fear being spied on.
Who is paid. Firms and officials guarding secrets buy it, and many makers can build such a detector so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Planetary ID Card
Doom Over Venus, Edmond Hamilton · 1940
A single identity credential issued to everyone living across the planets and moons of our solar system.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A single identity card for everyone is useful to the authority that issues it but is only a card.
Who is paid. Whoever issues the credential pays, assumed here to be a state, and the firms that already make official papers and registers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Alterable License Number
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
A car plate the driver can change from the seat to show a different registration.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A plate that can show a false registration is a tool for moving unseen, useful to a few agents and forbidden to ordinary drivers.
Who is paid. Assuming a spy or police service is the lawful buyer, it pays, and since any workshop could build it the firms already trusted with secret supply work collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Automatic Speeding Fine
Old Fireball, Nat Schachner · 1941
Measures a car's speed, logs the offence and sends out the penalty notice without human involvement.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Catching speeders without an officer saves some police labour but is a narrow tool.
Who is paid. Road authorities pay, and the cameras are easy to copy, so firms that already hold traffic supply contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Traffic Control Camera
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
Roadside cameras that automatically read and record the number plates of passing vehicles.
built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Reading number plates automatically helps enforce traffic rules, a narrow public task.
Who is paid. Road and police authorities pay, and the firms that already supply roadside equipment collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Visigraphic Crowd Emotional Record
Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943
Charts the collective moods of a gathered audience as a visual trace.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Charting the mood of an audience helps those who stage shows, speeches and meetings, which is a niche.
Who is paid. The description says an audience and not a crowd to be policed, so showmen and campaigners are assumed to pay, and such an instrument is easy for many makers to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Electronic Locator
World of Null-A, A.E. van Vogt · 1945
A gadget that pinpoints where a particular individual is.
built in 1973, 28 years after it was imagined
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Finding any chosen person wherever they are would change police work, rescue and manhunts enough to be an industry.
Who is paid. Police and security services pay, and once shown to work others could build it, so existing police suppliers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Memory Hole
1984 (Nineteen Eighty-Four), George Orwell · 1948
A wall slot that sends inconvenient papers off to be burned.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A chute that sends papers to a furnace is a minor office fitting.
Who is paid. A government office pays, and any builder could fit a chute and furnace so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Rewriting History
1984 (Nineteen Eighty-Four), George Orwell · 1948
Systematically altering archives so the past always matches what the rulers now claim.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Keeping every archive in step with what the rulers now say is a records task for the state that orders it, a narrow gain to those rulers and not a new industry.
Who is paid. The state pays, whether its own clerks do the work or a supplier does, just as it pays for the serial-number scheme, and systems for altering records are easy to build, so the firms that already run government records collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Telescreen
1984 (Nineteen Eighty-Four), George Orwell · 1948
A two-way screen in every home that broadcasts to residents while watching them.
built in the 1940s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A watching screen in every home gives a state sight of its whole people, at the people's cost.
Who is paid. The state pays to fit every home, and screens with cameras are easy to make, so the firms already making them collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Food, agriculture and environment · 7
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hydroponics
The Hydroponic Monster, Maria Moravsky · 1940
Raising crops in nutrient-rich water instead of earth.
already existed before the story (the 1930s)
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Growing crops in water lets food be raised without good soil, which is an industry of its own even though it never replaced fields.
Who is paid. Households buy the food grown this way, and the method is well known and needs no good land, so any grower can use it and no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mind Control Genetically Modified Food
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
Crops altered at the genetic level to yield chosen blends of taste.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Crops bred for chosen blends of taste are a pleasant variety, not a change in the cost of food.
Who is paid. Growers buy the plants, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the seed houses and nurseries that already hold stock, land and sales channels collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Weather Integrator
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
Technology that steers and schedules the weather over wide areas.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A vast prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Choosing the weather over wide areas would change farming, flood and drought for most people.
Who is paid. Nobody can be charged one by one for weather, so governments pay, and I assumed the power source it needs is hard enough that the first builder holds it alone.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Martian Sawgrass
QRM - Interplanetary, George O. Smith · 1942
A bred plant variety grown aboard orbiting habitats to replenish breathable air.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Plants that keep the air fresh serve only the few people living in sealed habitats.
Who is paid. Whoever runs the habitat pays, assumed to be a government, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the growers and suppliers that already serve such habitats collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gum Tree
Symbiotica, Eric Frank Russell · 1943
A giant plant that strikes out at others through its own will.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a hostile plant in a story and not something anyone could build or sell.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller gains.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Microwavable Food
Space Cadet, Robert Heinlein · 1948
Packaged meals designed to be cooked quickly in a radio-wave oven.
built in the 1970s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Ready meals cooked in minutes changed how many households eat and made an industry of their own.
Who is paid. Households buy them, and any food firm can pack a meal, so the brands with factories and freezer space in the shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Desert Cabbage
Red Planet, Robert Heinlein · 1949
A huge Martian plant that keeps itself warm against the frigid surface.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a plant in a story and not something anyone could build or sell.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller gains.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Home and everyday life · 28
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Air Blast
Coventry, Robert Heinlein · 1940
A personal blower that dries you with a stream of air.
already existed before the story (the 1900s)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Drying off with warm air instead of a towel is a convenience.
Who is paid. People buy it for the bathroom, and a blower is simple for any appliance maker to build.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Asbestos Sunshade
The Achilles Heel, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1940
A heat-resistant screen carried or worn to block harsh sunlight.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A shade against harsh sun is a simple comfort.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and a heat-proof screen is easy for anyone to make.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Floating Villa
Doom Over Venus, Edmond Hamilton · 1940
A man-made floating island big enough to hold a private residence and grounds.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A private island that floats is a luxury for the very rich.
Who is paid. Rich families buy it, and the shipyards and marine builders who already make large floating structures collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Knockdown Cabin
Coventry, Robert Heinlein · 1940
A rigid-walled portable hut that can be put up fast and taken down again.
already existed before the story (the 1900s)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A hut that goes up and comes down quickly suits campers and work crews.
Who is paid. I assumed campers and travellers buy it, and folding walls are easy for many makers to produce.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Lighting Panel
Let There Be Light, Lyle Monroe · 1940
A broad flat light source that glows without giving off warmth.
built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A flat panel that glows without wasted heat cuts the power bill for lighting everywhere, which changes a whole industry's costs.
Who is paid. Homes and firms both buy lighting, and once the method is known many makers can produce the panels, so buyers keep nearly all the saving.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Radium-Action Lighter
The Worlds of Tomorrow, Manly Wade Wellman · 1940
A pocket igniter for cigarettes and pipes powered by a radioactive source.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A lighter that never needs fuel is a small convenience for smokers.
Who is paid. Smokers buy it, and I assumed the radioactive source is as freely sold as the lighter itself, so any maker of small gadgets could copy it and no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Refreshing Chamber
Coventry, Robert Heinlein · 1940
An automated washing room that takes over every job of the ordinary bathroom.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A room that does every bathroom job by itself is a comfort, since people already wash without it.
Who is paid. Households buy it, and it is easy to copy, so the firms that already make bathroom fittings collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Telechronometer
Blowups Happen, Robert Heinlein · 1940
A watch that keeps itself set by signals from a distant clock.
built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A watch that sets itself from a distant clock saves a small task.
Who is paid. Households buy it and any watch maker can build it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Atmospherics Switchboard
Lie on the Beam, John Victor Peterson · 1941
A control panel that fills each guest room with the air mix of that guest's home world.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Matching room air to each guest's home world serves only hotels with visitors from other worlds.
Who is paid. Hotels buy it, and the firms that already fit heating and air systems into buildings could add it and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Automated Hotel Reservation
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
A hotel run without front-desk staff where guests book and check in themselves.
built in the 1990s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Doing without a front desk saves a hotel a modest part of its costs.
Who is paid. Hotels buy the booking system, and many firms can write such a system, so the saving passes to hotels and guests.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Fresher
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
An all-in-one hygiene booth meant to replace the shower, basin and toilet.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Putting the shower, basin and toilet in a single booth saves space but does what bathrooms already do.
Who is paid. Home owners buy it, and it is easy to copy, so the makers and fitters of bathroom fixtures collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Self-Lighting Cigarette
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
A cigarette with its own striking tip, so it needs no separate match.
built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A cigarette with its own striking tip saves a match, which is a small convenience.
Who is paid. Smokers buy it, and it is easy to copy, so the tobacco firms that already sell cigarettes collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Capillotomer
Beyond This Horizon, Robert Heinlein · 1942
A robot that shaves a person's face automatically without a human barber.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. An automatic shave saves a little time each morning.
Who is paid. I assumed a home device, so people buy it for themselves, and other appliance makers could copy it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Radiation Garment
Waldo, Robert Heinlein · 1942
Everyday clothing that shields ordinary people from some harmful radiation.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Clothing that blocks some harmful radiation matters only where such radiation is common.
Who is paid. Households buy it, and once the cloth exists any clothing maker could copy it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Zero-G Ashtray
Waldo, Robert Heinlein · 1942
A tray that traps ash and smoke where there is no gravity to hold them.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. An ashtray that works without gravity serves the few who smoke in space.
Who is paid. Those smokers buy it and any maker can build it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Adjustable House
Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943
A home whose flexible walls and frame can be reshaped to change its layout.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A home whose layout can be changed spares some rebuilding, but it is a feature of a house and does not make housing cheaper or more plentiful.
Who is paid. Home owners pay, and once the flexible material is known the builders and developers who already hold land and customers would collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Airpolo
Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943
A sport where players ride small flying machines to strike floating balls in the air.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A flying ball game is an entertainment for players and watchers, not a need.
Who is paid. Players and spectators pay, and nobody can own a sport, so any club or maker of small flying machines can take part.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Coldlight
Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943
Lighting that gives off brightness while producing almost no warmth.
built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Light with almost no wasted heat cuts the power bill for lighting everywhere, which changes a whole industry's costs.
Who is paid. Homes and firms both buy lamps, and once the method is known many makers can produce them, so buyers keep nearly all the saving.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Plastibulb
The Proud Robot, Lewis Padgett · 1943
A soft plastic pouch you squeeze to drink from.
built in the 1940s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A squeezable pouch to drink from is a plain drinking vessel.
Who is paid. I assumed people buy it for themselves as they would a cup, and anyone can make a pouch, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pneumo-Slacks
The Proud Robot, Lewis Padgett · 1943
Inflatable trousers that pad out the wearer's legs to seem more muscular.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Trousers that pad the legs to look muscular are a vanity item.
Who is paid. Households buy them and any clothing maker can copy them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Lawn Mower
City, Clifford Simak · 1944
A machine that cuts the grass on its own without a person pushing it.
built in 1995, 51 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Cutting the grass without a person saves a chore for those with lawns.
Who is paid. Households buy it and many firms can make a small garden machine, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Self-Opening Box
Child's Play, William Tenn · 1947
A container whose lid opens by itself without anyone touching it.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A lid that opens by itself is a minor convenience.
Who is paid. Households buy it and anyone can make such a box, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
High-Frequency Oven
Space Cadet, Robert Heinlein · 1948
An oven that heats food quickly with radio waves.
built in the 1940s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Heating food in moments changed how kitchens work and became an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Households buy it, and the method soon became easy to copy, so the appliance makers with factories and shop space collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Fluor Strips
Sacred Martian Pig (Idris' Pig), Margaret St. Clair · 1949
Slim elongated light fixtures.
already existed before the story (the 1930s)
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The description gives only the shape, so I assumed these are the long cool-running tube lights the name suggests, which cut the power bill for lighting shops, offices and homes.
Who is paid. Homes and firms both buy them, and many makers can produce them, so buyers keep nearly all the saving.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Fresher
Gulf, Robert Heinlein · 1949
An automated cubicle that washes, grooms and tidies a person.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A booth that washes and grooms you saves some time, but it does what bathrooms already do.
Who is paid. Home owners buy it, and it is easy to copy, so the makers and fitters of bathroom fixtures collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Painted Respirator Masks
Red Planet, Robert Heinlein · 1949
Breathing masks that children personalise with their own painted designs.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Decorating a breathing mask is a small pleasure added to gear people already own.
Who is paid. Households buy the masks and paint, and any maker can supply them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Self-Igniter
The Howling Bounders, Jack Vance · 1949
A cigarette that lights itself when you start smoking it.
already existed before the story (the 1920s)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A cigarette that lights itself saves a match, which is a small convenience.
Who is paid. Smokers buy it, and it is easy to copy, so the tobacco firms that already sell cigarettes collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Shari
Sacred Martian Pig (Idris' Pig), Margaret St. Clair · 1949
A mesh garment that doubles as a carrying net and other tools.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A mesh garment that also serves as a carrying net is a handy piece of clothing.
Who is paid. Households buy it and anyone can make mesh clothing, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Exotic physics · 26
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Atom-Shifter
The Worlds of Tomorrow, Manly Wade Wellman · 1940
Makes solid matter yield so a person can walk through it.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Walking through walls would change rescue, mining and spying, and would undo most locks.
Who is paid. I assume the public would be barred from it, so police, armies and rescue services pay and their usual suppliers build it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Barrier (Force Field)
Coventry, Robert Heinlein · 1940
An invisible energy fence that nothing can pass through.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A wall nothing can pass would reshape defence, prisons and the guarding of valuable places.
Who is paid. Armies and police would be the main buyers, and with the method copyable among arms makers, the firms already holding such contracts would supply it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gravitational Disks
Revolt on Io, Jack West · 1940
Discs worn to hold a person firmly to the ground where gravity is weak.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Unlike the generators, these only hold one person's feet down, a niche piece of crew kit.
Who is paid. Ship and mine operators would issue them to workers, and many makers could copy them.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tesseract House
#NAME?, Robert Heinlein · 1940
A dwelling laid out in the form of a shape with four spatial dimensions.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A house with far more rooms than its plot allows would cut the cost of housing where land is scarce.
Who is paid. Households would buy it, and since the design could be copied the builders and land owners already in the trade collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Antigrav Boots
The Day We Celebrate, Nelson S. Bond · 1941
Footwear that cancels the wearer's weight.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Personal flight without wings or fuel would be a new kind of everyday travel, though a narrower use than lifting freight and vehicles.
Who is paid. Ordinary people would buy it as they buy bicycles, and once one firm made it many could, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Momentum Screen
Completely Automatic, Theodore Sturgeon · 1941
A shield that spares a crew the crushing forces felt during launch.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Removing the crush of hard acceleration would make launches safer and allow far quicker journeys, assuming it works beyond launch as other such screens do.
Who is paid. Vehicle and ship builders would fit it, and since the method could be copied, those established builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pseudogravity
Common Sense, Robert Heinlein · 1941
Weight felt aboard a craft that is made by engineering rather than a big body's pull.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Normal weight on ships and stations would make living and working in space healthy and practical, which is an industry's worth but only for those off Earth.
Who is paid. Ship and station builders would fit it as standard, and with nothing to stop copying, those established builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Psychophone
The Mechanical Mice, Maurice G. Hugi · 1941
A device that lets a person tune their thoughts to see a coming reality.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Seeing what is coming would change how trade, insurance and planning are done, though the edge shrinks once many can look.
Who is paid. Firms and advisers would buy it first, and once many makers can build the viewer no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Time Line
Time Wants A Skeleton, Ross Rocklynne · 1941
The chain of happenings running up to the present instant and onward beyond it.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. The chain of events through the present is a way of describing time, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Fire Storm
Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942
The violent flare when drifting antimatter grains strike a ship made of normal matter.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A flare that destroys ships is a hazard.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold; it is an accident to be avoided.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Stasis Field
Beyond This Horizon, Robert Heinlein · 1942
An enclosure inside which time halts completely, freezing whatever it holds.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Stopping time inside a box would end spoilage and hold the badly hurt until help comes, assuming a container of household or shop size.
Who is paid. Homes, shops and hospitals would buy it like a refrigerator, and since it could be copied the appliance makers with factories and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Time Dredge
Time Dredge, Robert Arthur · 1942
A machine that reaches into earlier eras and hauls physical objects back.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Hauling real objects out of earlier eras reaches the past as the time machines do, and would be worth an industry in salvage, study and lost materials.
Who is paid. I assume a state would keep for itself a machine that reaches into the past and could so alter history, so a government pays and its established contractors build it, since others could copy it once shown.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Zeroentropy Spray
Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943
A mist that strips nearly all disorder from an object, chilling it almost to the coldest possible point.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Deep cold from a spray would cut the cost of freezing, of strong magnets and of other work that needs extreme cold.
Who is paid. Factories and laboratories would buy it, and since it could be copied the chemical firms with plants and customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gravitics
Tricky Tonnage, Malcolm Jameson · 1944
Engineering that controls or manipulates gravity itself, for propulsion, lifting or other practical uses.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Cancelling weight at will would cut the cost of lifting, carrying and launching, which changes transport and building more than it changes how most people live.
Who is paid. Carriers, builders and launch firms would pay, and since the trick could be copied once shown, the firms that already build vehicles and craft would collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cosmoquake
Things Pass By, Murray Leinster · 1945
A natural surge of gravitational waves that sweeps through the solar system and shakes what it passes.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A natural disaster is a hazard, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold; it is an event that happens to people.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Matter Duplicator
Pandora's Millions, George O. Smith · 1945
A machine that produces an exact replica of any physical object placed in it.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Copying any object at will would make most goods nearly free for most people.
Who is paid. Assuming a home-sized machine, households would buy it, and since the first machine can copy itself no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Overdrive
First Contact, Murray Leinster · 1945
An engine that lets a ship outrun light itself.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Ships that outrun light would open other stars to trade and settlement, an industry of its own, though most people would never ride one.
Who is paid. Shipping lines and explorers would buy the engines, and once the trick is known any shipyard could fit it, so the established ship builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pocket Universe
Pocket Universes, Murray Leinster · 1946
An artificially made region of space sealed off from the ordinary universe around it.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A region sealed off from the rest of space would be prized as a hiding place and a vault, assuming that is its use.
Who is paid. Governments would pay for secure hidden space, and the firms that already hold defence contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gravitic Generator
Meddler's Moon, George O. Smith · 1947
A machine that creates gravity on demand without needing a large mass or spin.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Normal weight on ships and stations would make living and working in space healthy and practical, which is an industry's worth but only for those off Earth.
Who is paid. Ship and station builders would fit it as standard, and with nothing to stop copying, those established builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hedgerly Effect
Meddler's Moon, George O. Smith · 1947
A physical principle that lets engineers make gravity without large masses.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Normal weight on ships and stations would make living and working in space healthy and practical, which is an industry's worth but only for those off Earth.
Who is paid. Ship and station builders would fit it as standard, and with nothing to stop copying, those established builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Space-Split
The Star of Life, Edmond Hamilton · 1947
Opening a rift in space to reach other dimensions.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A way into another world could open new lands and materials, though what lies beyond is unknown.
Who is paid. I assume it would be run like a space programme, with a government paying its usual contractors to build and guard it, since others could copy it once shown.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wango Wave
Propagandist, Murray Leinster · 1947
A burst of energy released when a ship jumps into or out of faster-than-light travel.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A burst of energy from a ship's jump is a side effect, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bolt Anti-Grav
Sacred Martian Pig (Idris' Pig), Margaret St. Clair · 1949
A ring-shaped energy discharge that cancels gravity for whatever sits inside it.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Cancelling weight at will would cut the cost of lifting, carrying and launching, which changes transport and building more than it changes how most people live.
Who is paid. Carriers, builders and launch firms would pay, and since the trick could be copied once shown, the firms that already build vehicles and craft would collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Repulsor
What Mad Universe, Frederic Brown · 1949
A field that stops faster-than-light engines from working nearby.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A field that stops star engines nearby would be the main defence of any world in an age of such ships.
Who is paid. Governments would pay for it, and the firms that already hold defence contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Spacewarp Drive
What Mad Universe, Frederic Brown · 1949
An engine that bends space to travel faster than light.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Ships that outrun light would open other stars to trade and settlement, an industry of its own, though most people would never ride one.
Who is paid. Shipping lines and explorers would buy the engines, and once the trick is known any shipyard could fit it, so the established ship builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Synthetigrav
Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949
Catch-all name for gravity fields made by machines.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Normal weight on ships and stations would make living and working in space healthy and practical, which is an industry's worth but only for those off Earth.
Who is paid. Ship and station builders would fit it as standard, and with nothing to stop copying, those established builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Society and economy · 18
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Synthetic Personality
If This Goes On..., Robert Heinlein · 1940
A made-up identity given legal standing as though it were a real individual.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A made-up person recognised in law is a legal device, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Anti-Robot Propaganda
Liar, Isaac Asimov · 1941
Campaigns by people stirring up opposition to machines that think.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A campaign against thinking machines is an event in society, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Asteroid Claim Law
Jurisdiction, Nat Schachner · 1941
Legal procedure for staking ownership over a small space rock.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Permits, papers and traffic rules for space travel are set by governments, not sold as a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Interplanetary Clearance
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
Official paperwork and permits a craft must clear before leaving crowded launch ports.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Permits, papers and traffic rules for space travel are set by governments, not sold as a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Interplanetary Union Of Spacemen
Old Fireball, Nat Schachner · 1941
A labour organisation representing people who work off Earth.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A labour union is an organisation of workers, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Psycho-History
Beyond All Weapons, Eric Frank Russell · 1941
Using the science of the mind to analyse records of past events and forecast social trends.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Reliable forecasts of where a whole society is heading would be worth a great deal to those who govern.
Who is paid. Governments pay, and I assumed the method and its records stay in the hands of those who worked it out, so others cannot copy it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Space Lawyer (Sky-Lawyer)
Jurisdiction, Nat Schachner · 1941
An attorney who specialises in the law of outer space.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Advice on the law of space is a niche within the law.
Who is paid. Firms working in space pay, and any trained lawyer can offer it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Visible Halo
Sixth Column, Anson MacDonald · 1941
A lighting effect that makes a preacher appear to glow with holiness.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A glow around a preacher is a stage effect.
Who is paid. Churches pay, which I count as businesses, and any lighting maker can supply it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Alien Self-Government
Co-Operate or Else, A.E. van Vogt · 1942
Principles guaranteeing that intelligent beings from other worlds may rule themselves freely.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A rule about how to treat other worlds and their peoples is law or guidance, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Asterite
Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942
Someone born and raised in settlements scattered across the asteroid belt.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Control Natural
Beyond This Horizon, Robert Heinlein · 1942
A citizen deliberately left with inherited genes untouched, serving as a baseline in an edited society.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Groundhog
Waldo, Robert Heinlein · 1942
Slang for someone who lives and works on the ground rather than in orbit.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Royalties For Machine Learning Subjects
Q.U.R., Anthony Boucher · 1943
A scheme paying people ongoing fees when robots learn skills by copying their recorded behaviour.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A scheme of fees for people whose skills are copied is a rule about pay, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Treatment of Extramundane Aborigines
Symbiotica, Eric Frank Russell · 1943
Legal rules governing how visitors must deal with native peoples on other planets.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A rule about how to treat other worlds and their peoples is law or guidance, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Relations with Extraterrestrial Life
Ogre, Clifford Simak · 1944
Official guidance telling people how to conduct themselves if they meet beings from other worlds.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A rule about how to treat other worlds and their peoples is law or guidance, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Crimestop
1984 (Nineteen Eighty-Four), George Orwell · 1948
A learned reflex of cutting off any forbidden line of thought before it forms.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A trained habit of thought is a skill or a harm of the mind, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Doublethink
1984 (Nineteen Eighty-Four), George Orwell · 1948
A trained habit of holding two opposing beliefs at once and accepting both.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A trained habit of thought is a skill or a harm of the mind, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Three Generation Work (Century Piece)
The Sub-Standard Sardines, Jack Vance · 1949
A single artwork made over a hundred years by grandparent, parent and child artists in turn.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. One artwork made over a century is a rare luxury.
Who is paid. Collectors pay, and only the family that spent three lifetimes on it can offer it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.