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Futures · imagined

Imagined in the 1940s

The technologies stories first imagined in this decade, by kind, with whether each has been built since and who would keep the profit.

By kind of technology

Space travel and habitats · 88
Illustration of Cyclotronic Ore-Hurler: Uses an asteroid's magnetism to fling mined rock across space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cyclotronic Ore-Hurler

Exit From Asteroid 60, D.L. James · 1940

Uses an asteroid's magnetism to fling mined rock across space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Unlike a launch track serving all cargo, this only moves ore from a mine, a tool within space mining.

Who is paid. Mining firms pay for it, and makers of mining and launch gear could all build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Darkened Glass Face Plate: A tinted helmet visor that shields a spacewalker's eyes from harsh sunlight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Darkened Glass Face Plate

The Achilles Heel, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1940

A tinted helmet visor that shields a spacewalker's eyes from harsh sunlight.

built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a handy detail of a helmet, a convenience for the few people who wear spacesuits.

Who is paid. Operators pay for it as part of the suit, and suit makers fit it themselves because any of them could copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Escape Port: A one-person emergency exit for leaving a spacecraft in a crisis.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Escape Port

Hell Ship of Space, Frederic Arnold Kummer, Jr. · 1940

A one-person emergency exit for leaving a spacecraft in a crisis.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It saves lives in a disaster, but it is safety equipment carried aboard a larger ship.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as required safety gear, and shipbuilders supply it because the design is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Humanoid: A being from another world whose body resembles a person's in form and look.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Humanoid

Homo Sol, Isaac Asimov · 1940

A being from another world whose body resembles a person's in form and look.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a being from another world, a creature and not a technology.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Life-Ship: A small craft for escaping and surviving when the main vessel is lost.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Life-Ship

The Invisible World, Ed Earl Repp · 1940

A small craft for escaping and surviving when the main vessel is lost.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A way off a failing ship saves lives but is carried as a fitting and rarely used.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as part of the craft, and established shipbuilders supply it since any of them could make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Moon Skis: Broad skis made for gliding over loose lunar dust.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Moon Skis

Requiem, Robert Heinlein · 1940

Broad skis made for gliding over loose lunar dust.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Skis for crossing loose Moon dust are a small aid to those who work there.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and it is a simple loose item that any workshop could make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Neutronium Slippers: Extremely dense shoes that keep a wearer planted on worlds with weak gravity.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Neutronium Slippers

Revolt on the Tenth World, Edmond Hamilton · 1940

Extremely dense shoes that keep a wearer planted on worlds with weak gravity.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Heavy shoes that keep a worker planted where things weigh little are a niche aid for a few crews.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and unlike plain weighted shoes it needs a dense material no workshop has, so the established makers of space gear supply it, though any of them could copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Planetfall: Bringing a spacecraft down from orbit to a controlled touchdown on a world's surface.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Planetfall

Quicksands of Youthwardness, Malcolm Jameson · 1940

Bringing a spacecraft down from orbit to a controlled touchdown on a world's surface.

built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a word or a way of doing things that needs no new equipment, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Rocket Cruiser: A spaceship owned and flown by a private individual rather than a state.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rocket Cruiser

The Worlds of Tomorrow, Manly Wade Wellman · 1940

A spaceship owned and flown by a private individual rather than a state.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A spaceship a private person can own and fly would open a new kind of private travel.

Who is paid. Private owners buy the ship, assumed here to be ordinary people and not firms, and since the design could be copied the established builders of craft collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Shuttle: A reusable craft that ferries people and cargo between the ground and an orbiting ship.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Shuttle

Hell Ship of Space, Frederic Arnold Kummer, Jr. · 1940

A reusable craft that ferries people and cargo between the ground and an orbiting ship.

built in the 1980s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A cheap reusable way from the ground to orbit would cut the cost of everything done in space.

Who is paid. Carriers buy the craft to move people and cargo, and once it flew other builders could copy it, so established craft builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Tramp: A worn-out, slow cargo ship that drifts between ports in space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Tramp

The Invisible World, Ed Earl Repp · 1940

A worn-out, slow cargo ship that drifts between ports in space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A cargo ship, even an old slow one, is the working vessel of trade between worlds, a transport industry of its own.

Who is paid. Shippers and carriers buy and run such ships, and many yards could build them, so established builders and fleet owners collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Test Box: A remotely operated container that grabs small bits of matter drifting in space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Test Box

The Devil's Pocket, F.E. Hardart · 1940

A remotely operated container that grabs small bits of matter drifting in space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A remote box for catching drifting specks is a tool for sampling, assumed here to serve prospecting or testing.

Who is paid. Firms working in space buy it, assumed here, and the established makers of space equipment could all copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Asteroid Lanes: Predictable paths along which space rocks regularly travel.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Asteroid Lanes

Jurisdiction, Nat Schachner · 1941

Predictable paths along which space rocks regularly travel.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a natural thing or event in space, not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Astrogation (to Astrogate): Finding and steering a course for a craft between worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Astrogation (to Astrogate)

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

Finding and steering a course for a craft between worlds.

built in the 1950s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a skill, judged by the work it sells: plotting a course is needed on every voyage but is a small part of its cost.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay the wages, and anyone with the training can do the work, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Automatic Refueling Screen: A field around a craft that pushes away big debris and scoops up small particles as fuel.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automatic Refueling Screen

Biddiver, Theodore Sturgeon · 1941

A field around a craft that pushes away big debris and scoops up small particles as fuel.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A field that both shields a ship from debris and gathers fuel as it flies would cut the cost of every voyage.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay, and once the field worked other shipbuilders could copy it, so established builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Chardion Field: An invisible barrier that holds breathable air around very small planets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chardion Field

Star of Dreams, Jack Williamson · 1941

An invisible barrier that holds breathable air around very small planets.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Holding air in place without walls would make settling airless worlds far cheaper than building domes.

Who is paid. Settlements are public works a government pays for, and once the field was known other builders could copy it, so established settlement builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Charted Planetoid Mines: Mapping small bodies in space to find and claim ore worth digging.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Charted Planetoid Mines

The Day We Celebrate, Nelson S. Bond · 1941

Mapping small bodies in space to find and claim ore worth digging.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Metal and other materials from space rocks would be an industry of its own and could change the cost of raw materials.

Who is paid. Factories and builders buy the output, and since mining methods are easy to copy the firms that already own ships and refineries collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Delayed Action Stereoscopic Principle: Spotting distant ships by how they shift across the background of stars over time.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Delayed Action Stereoscopic Principle

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

Spotting distant ships by how they shift across the background of stars over time.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a word or a way of doing things that needs no new equipment, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Docking-Cradle: A ground frame that supports a spaceship's weight while it sits on a planet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Docking-Cradle

They Never Came Back, Fritz Leiber · 1941

A ground frame that supports a spaceship's weight while it sits on a planet.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A frame to hold a landed ship is plain ground equipment at a port.

Who is paid. Port operators buy it, and a steel frame is something many firms could make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electrono-Mirror: A reflector that concentrates sunlight on another world to reshape its climate.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electrono-Mirror

The Day We Celebrate, Nelson S. Bond · 1941

A reflector that concentrates sunlight on another world to reshape its climate.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Giving a whole world air and a climate people can live in would open new land for a large share of humanity.

Who is paid. Only a government could fund work on a whole world, and the large engineering firms that already hold such contracts would be paid to do it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Geodesic Inflexors: Drives a craft by bending the fabric of space itself rather than expelling mass.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Geodesic Inflexors

Star of Dreams, Jack Williamson · 1941

Drives a craft by bending the fabric of space itself rather than expelling mass.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An engine that moves ships faster or more cheaply would change the cost of all space transport.

Who is paid. An engine is bought by whoever runs the ship, assumed here to be carriers, and established engine builders could copy it once it worked.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Joy-boat Junior: A personally owned pleasure craft that can make short hops above the atmosphere.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Joy-boat Junior

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

A personally owned pleasure craft that can make short hops above the atmosphere.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A private pleasure craft for hops above the air is a luxury for a few owners, like the other yachts.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy the craft for themselves, and since others could copy it the established vehicle builders and their dealers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Lunar Used Spacecraft Lot: A dealership on the Moon that resells second-hand spaceships.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lunar Used Spacecraft Lot

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

A dealership on the Moon that resells second-hand spaceships.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2080s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A yard that resells old ships is an ordinary trade, a convenience for buyers.

Who is paid. Small operators buy the ships, and anyone with a patch of ground could open such a yard, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Magnetic Sandals: Shoes that cling to a ship's floor so wearers can walk in weightlessness.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magnetic Sandals

Star of Dreams, Jack Williamson · 1941

Shoes that cling to a ship's floor so wearers can walk in weightlessness.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping your footing where there is little or no weight is a small convenience for those who work there.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and it is a simple loose item that any workshop could make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Magnetized Boots: Shoes that grip a steel hull so one can walk without artificial weight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magnetized Boots

Lost Rocket, Manly Wade Wellman · 1941

Shoes that grip a steel hull so one can walk without artificial weight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping your footing where there is little or no weight is a small convenience for those who work there.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and it is a simple loose item that any workshop could make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Orbital Mirror: A giant reflector circling a world that directs sunlight down onto the ground.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Orbital Mirror

Completely Automatic, Theodore Sturgeon · 1941

A giant reflector circling a world that directs sunlight down onto the ground.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Unlike a mirror that remakes a whole world, this lights or warms chosen regions of the ground, worth an industry but not a new world.

Who is paid. Light falling on a region cannot be charged to each person under it, so a government is assumed to pay, and established satellite builders supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Oxygen Freshener: Removes exhaled carbon dioxide from cabin air and restores breathable oxygen.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Oxygen Freshener

Lost Rocket, Manly Wade Wellman · 1941

Removes exhaled carbon dioxide from cabin air and restores breathable oxygen.

built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Breathable air is essential, but this is a fitting inside a craft, suit or camp, not an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ship and expedition operators pay for it with their other gear, and the established builders of ships and suits supply it because the method is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Parking Orbit: A holding path around a world from which a small shuttle can reach the ground easily.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Parking Orbit

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

A holding path around a world from which a small shuttle can reach the ground easily.

built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a word or a way of doing things that needs no new equipment, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pilot Beam: A guidance signal that descending craft follow down to a safe touchdown.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pilot Beam

Methuselah's Children, Murray Leinster · 1941

A guidance signal that descending craft follow down to a safe touchdown.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A signal that guides craft down to a safe landing is a necessary piece of port equipment, not an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Port operators buy it, and established makers of radio and landing gear could all supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Legs: The trained knack of walking steadily aboard a ship under heavy thrust.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Legs

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

The trained knack of walking steadily aboard a ship under heavy thrust.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a knack a crew member picks up with practice, not a product or a service sold by itself.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Overalls: A thin, lightweight pressure garment for easy work in space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Overalls

Lost Rocket, Manly Wade Wellman · 1941

A thin, lightweight pressure garment for easy work in space.

built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It keeps a person alive and able to work outside, essential gear but only for the few who work in space.

Who is paid. Space operators buy suits for their crews, and the few established makers of suits can all copy a design, so they collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Placers: Prospectors who sift loose deposits on other worlds using methods borrowed from terrestrial mining.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Placers

The Day We Celebrate, Nelson S. Bond · 1941

Prospectors who sift loose deposits on other worlds using methods borrowed from terrestrial mining.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a job, judged by the work it sells: sifting loose deposits by hand is small-scale digging beside the mines.

Who is paid. Mining firms or buyers of the ore pay for the work, assumed here, and anyone with a pan and the training can do it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Rush: A scramble of prospectors racing to claim riches found off Earth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Rush

Jurisdiction, Nat Schachner · 1941

A scramble of prospectors racing to claim riches found off Earth.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is an event, a crowd racing to stake claims, not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Socks: Protective footwear layers worn by crews off-world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Socks

Lost Rocket, Manly Wade Wellman · 1941

Protective footwear layers worn by crews off-world.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a part of a suit, useful to the wearer but not a product by itself.

Who is paid. Space operators pay for it within the suit, and the established suit makers supply it since any of them can copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Station: An orbiting outpost that serves as a working base above a planet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Station

Backlash, Jack Williamson · 1941

An orbiting outpost that serves as a working base above a planet.

built in the 1970s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A place for people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.

Who is paid. A station is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Tanned: Skin darkening from unfiltered sunlight received beyond the air's protective shield.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Tanned

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

Skin darkening from unfiltered sunlight received beyond the air's protective shield.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It names what space does to the body, a condition and not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Tunnel: A sealed walkway stretched between two ships so crews can cross.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Tunnel

The Man Who Bought Mars, Polton Cross · 1941

A sealed walkway stretched between two ships so crews can cross.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Crossing between ships without suiting up is a convenience fitted to craft that meet often.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as a fitting, and the established builders of ships supply it since it is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spacehound: A dog-like animal that senses minds and burrows into space rocks after metal.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spacehound

Beast of Space, F.E. Hardart · 1941

A dog-like animal that senses minds and burrows into space rocks after metal.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a creature found in space, not bred or built by anyone, so it is not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Squeaker: A handheld detector that finds radioactive ore on small space rocks.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Squeaker

Beast of Space, F.E. Hardart · 1941

A handheld detector that finds radioactive ore on small space rocks.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A handheld finder for radioactive ore is a prospector's tool, a niche.

Who is paid. Prospecting firms buy it, and radiation detectors are ordinary instruments that many firms make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sweep Field: A field that draws in dust and gas between planets to feed a ship's drive.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sweep Field

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

A field that draws in dust and gas between planets to feed a ship's drive.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Gathering fuel from the dust and gas along the way would free a ship from carrying it, a large gain for every voyage.

Who is paid. Whoever runs the ship pays for the engine, assumed here to be carriers, and once a firm had built it others could too, so established engine and ship builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Broomstick Speedster: A small two-person vehicle that reaches orbit using power beamed to it from outside.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Broomstick Speedster

Waldo, Robert Heinlein · 1942

A small two-person vehicle that reaches orbit using power beamed to it from outside.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A small personal vehicle that reaches orbit would open a new kind of private travel.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy the vehicle, but it only flies on beamed power, so the owners of the power stations collect most.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Dirigible Space Armor (Working Space Suits): Rugged steerable pressure suits worn by miners working on space rocks.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dirigible Space Armor (Working Space Suits)

Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942

Rugged steerable pressure suits worn by miners working on space rocks.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A suit that keeps a person alive in vacuum is vital to its wearer but serves only the few who work in space.

Who is paid. Space operators buy suits for their crews, and the few firms that already make such gear supply them since the design can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Igloo-Shaped Space Shelter: A dome-shaped habitat that goes up quickly on airless rocks in space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Igloo-Shaped Space Shelter

Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942

A dome-shaped habitat that goes up quickly on airless rocks in space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A shelter that goes up quickly serves small parties working on airless ground, a niche.

Who is paid. No user is named, so it is assumed that firms working on other worlds buy it as working gear, and a shelter that must hold air against vacuum is made by the established makers of suits and habitats, any of whom could copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Insosuit: Protective spacewear built to survive intense heat on scorching worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Insosuit

Runaround, Isaac Asimov · 1942

Protective spacewear built to survive intense heat on scorching worlds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A suit that keeps a person alive in a hostile place is vital to its wearer but serves only the few who work there.

Who is paid. Space operators buy suits for their crews, and the few firms that already make such gear supply them since the design can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Meteorscope: Scans the route ahead of a ship to spot clouds of dangerous space debris.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Meteorscope

The World With A Thousand Moons, Edmond Hamilton · 1942

Scans the route ahead of a ship to spot clouds of dangerous space debris.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Warning of rocks ahead keeps a ship safe, but it is a fitting on the craft, not an industry.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and the firms that already make ship instruments supply it since the design can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Negative Safety-Field: An artificial gravity barrier that pushes hazards away from a ship.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Negative Safety-Field

Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942

An artificial gravity barrier that pushes hazards away from a ship.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Pushing rocks and other hazards away keeps a ship safe, but it is a safety fitting of the craft and not an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and once the field worked other shipbuilders could copy it, so established builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Paragravity: Generates gravity artificially inside a ship without spinning it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Paragravity

Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942

Generates gravity artificially inside a ship without spinning it.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Real weight underfoot without spinning the ship would be fitted almost everywhere people live in space.

Who is paid. Ship and station operators buy it, and once it worked other makers could copy it, so established builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Seetee Blinker: A warning beacon placed on antimatter rocks so ships can navigate around them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Seetee Blinker

Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942

A warning beacon placed on antimatter rocks so ships can navigate around them.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A marker in space for navigators is a minor aid to navigation.

Who is paid. A beacon serves all ships and none can be charged, so a government pays, and a simple transmitter or light is something many firms could build.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Tugs: Small working craft that push and tow other vessels around in orbit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Tugs

Describe a Circle, Eric Frank Russell · 1942

Small working craft that push and tow other vessels around in orbit.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Moving other craft about in orbit is a steady support trade, not an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Port and ship operators buy tugs, and any spacecraft builder could make such a simple craft, so established builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space-Burned: Skin damage from harsh unfiltered sunlight beyond the atmosphere.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space-Burned

Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942

Skin damage from harsh unfiltered sunlight beyond the atmosphere.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It names what space does to the body, a condition and not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Terraforming: Reshaping a whole planet's surface, air and ecosystems until it resembles Earth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Terraforming

Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942

Reshaping a whole planet's surface, air and ecosystems until it resembles Earth.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Giving a whole world air and a climate people can live in would open new land for a large share of humanity.

Who is paid. Only a government could fund work on a whole world, and the large engineering firms that already hold such contracts would be paid to do it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Thermalarm Relays: Senses nearby objects through their infrared glow so ships can steer clear.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Thermalarm Relays

Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942

Senses nearby objects through their infrared glow so ships can steer clear.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Sensing nearby objects so a ship can steer clear is essential but is an instrument within the ship.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy it as part of the craft, and the established makers of flight instruments supply it since it can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Vac Suit: A sealed outfit that lets a person survive and work in airless space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vac Suit

Child of the Sun, Leigh Brackett · 1942

A sealed outfit that lets a person survive and work in airless space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It keeps a person alive and able to work outside, essential gear but only for the few who work in space.

Who is paid. Space operators buy suits for their crews, and the few established makers of suits can all copy a design, so they collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Weight-Shoes: Heavy footwear that helps people keep their footing on low-gravity worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Weight-Shoes

The World With A Thousand Moons, Edmond Hamilton · 1942

Heavy footwear that helps people keep their footing on low-gravity worlds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Heavy shoes that steady the wearer on a light world are a small piece of crew gear.

Who is paid. No buyer is named, so firms working on such worlds are assumed to buy them for crews, and it is a simple loose item that any workshop could make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Wheelchair Space Station: A private orbiting dwelling where someone lives permanently above Earth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wheelchair Space Station

Waldo, Robert Heinlein · 1942

A private orbiting dwelling where someone lives permanently above Earth.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A private home in orbit is a dwelling for a very few who could afford and want it.

Who is paid. Unlike other stations the description names a private resident, who pays for it, and established station builders could all make one.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Xenephrene Interstellar World: A planet drifting freely through interstellar space without a parent star.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Xenephrene Interstellar World

A Brand New World, Ray Cummings · 1942

A planet drifting freely through interstellar space without a parent star.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a natural thing or event in space, not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Deceleration Chambers: Ship sections designed to split off under strain so each piece might keep its occupants alive.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Deceleration Chambers

The Storm, A.E. van Vogt · 1943

Ship sections designed to split off under strain so each piece might keep its occupants alive.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It saves lives in a disaster, but it is safety equipment carried aboard a larger ship.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as required safety gear, and shipbuilders supply it because the design is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Manshell: A tiny spacecraft sized for one occupant, also used as a lifeboat.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Manshell

Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943

A tiny spacecraft sized for one occupant, also used as a lifeboat.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tiny craft for a lone occupant that also serves as a lifeboat is a niche fitting.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as part of the craft, and established shipbuilders supply it since any of them could make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Meteor-Spotting Radar: Onboard radar that alerts a ship to approaching space rocks.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Meteor-Spotting Radar

Recoil, George O. Smith · 1943

Onboard radar that alerts a ship to approaching space rocks.

built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Warning of rocks ahead keeps a ship safe, but it is a fitting on the craft, not an industry.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and the firms that already make ship instruments supply it since the design can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Off-World: Describes anything originating somewhere other than our home planet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Off-World

Judgement Night, C.L. Moore · 1943

Describes anything originating somewhere other than our home planet.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a word, not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Rocketeer: A person whose job is flying rocket-powered craft.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rocketeer

Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943

A person whose job is flying rocket-powered craft.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a job, judged by the work it sells: a trained pilot is needed on every flight but is a small part of its cost.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay the wages, and anyone with the training can do the work, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Cadet: A youngster in training to become a crew member on spacecraft.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Cadet

Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943

A youngster in training to become a crew member on spacecraft.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a trainee crew role, judged like the other jobs by the work and training it involves, a small part of what a voyage costs.

Who is paid. Ship operators are assumed to pay to train and keep their trainee crews, and anyone can apply and learn, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Weather Map: Charts dangerous radiation and particle conditions across a region of space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Weather Map

The Storm, A.E. van Vogt · 1943

Charts dangerous radiation and particle conditions across a region of space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A chart of dangerous radiation helps the few ships in a region plan safe passage.

Who is paid. Like a weather service it serves all ships and is hard to charge each of them for, so a government is assumed to pay the forecasting bodies and suppliers that already do such work.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Stratoyacht: A personal luxury vessel that can climb into orbit for recreation.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stratoyacht

Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943

A personal luxury vessel that can climb into orbit for recreation.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A private pleasure craft for space is a luxury for a few rich owners.

Who is paid. The description names private owners who buy it for themselves, and the yards that already build spacecraft could all make one.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Asteroid Mining Robot: A self-directed machine that extracts metals and other resources from asteroids.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Asteroid Mining Robot

Catch That Rabbit, Isaac Asimov · 1944

A self-directed machine that extracts metals and other resources from asteroids.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Metal and other materials from space rocks would be an industry of its own and could change the cost of raw materials.

Who is paid. Factories and builders buy the output, and since mining methods are easy to copy the firms that already own ships and refineries collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Hollow Asteroid: An asteroid with its interior dug out so people can live inside it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hollow Asteroid

Juke Box Asteroid, Joseph Farrell · 1944

An asteroid with its interior dug out so people can live inside it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A place for many people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.

Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Star Base: An outpost placed at a strategic point between the stars.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Star Base

Star Base X, R.M. Williams · 1944

An outpost placed at a strategic point between the stars.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An outpost at a strategic point between the stars is a very large building project.

Who is paid. A strategic outpost is assumed to be military, so a government pays, and the big builders that already hold defence and space contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Turnover: The midway moment when a thrusting spacecraft flips around to begin slowing down.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Turnover

Off the Beam, George O. Smith · 1944

The midway moment when a thrusting spacecraft flips around to begin slowing down.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a way of flying, the flip at the midpoint of a trip, that needs no new equipment and is not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Escapecraft: A small lifeboat vessel the crew boards when they must leave the main ship.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Escapecraft

The Ethical Equations, Murray Leinster · 1945

A small lifeboat vessel the crew boards when they must leave the main ship.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It saves lives in a disaster, but it is safety equipment carried aboard a larger ship.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as required safety gear, and shipbuilders supply it because the design is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Geosynchronous Satellite: A relay satellite whose orbit matches the planet's daily spin, so it stays fixed above one place.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Geosynchronous Satellite

V2 for Ionospheric Research, Arthur C. Clarke · 1945

A relay satellite whose orbit matches the planet's daily spin, so it stays fixed above one place.

built in 1964, 19 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A relay that stays over one place carries broadcasts and calls across the world, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Broadcasters and phone firms pay for the relay, and since many builders can make such satellites the gain goes to operators that already hold the orbit places and networks.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Asteroid Mine: Finding asteroids rich in metal and extracting their ore.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Asteroid Mine

Love Among The Robots, Emmett McDowell · 1946

Finding asteroids rich in metal and extracting their ore.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Metal and other materials from space rocks would be an industry of its own and could change the cost of raw materials.

Who is paid. Factories and builders buy the output, and since mining methods are easy to copy the firms that already own ships and refineries collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Gravity Port: A port facility where spacecraft stop to take on fuel.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gravity Port

Shadow Over Venus, Frank Belknap Long, Jr. · 1946

A port facility where spacecraft stop to take on fuel.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A place to land, park or refuel is a necessary part of space traffic but only an extra beside the ships and launch works.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay to use it, and it is easy to copy, so those who already hold the port sites collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Plastic Igloo: A sturdy dome-shaped plastic dwelling that holds air for living where there is none outside.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plastic Igloo

Love Among The Robots, Emmett McDowell · 1946

A sturdy dome-shaped plastic dwelling that holds air for living where there is none outside.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It lets a settler family live on an airless world, a niche for the few who homestead there.

Who is paid. It is a dwelling, so settlers are assumed to buy it for themselves, and a shelter that must hold air against vacuum is made by the established makers of suits and habitats, any of whom could copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Star Travel: Voyages from our solar system to other stars.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Star Travel

Forgotten World, Edmond Hamilton · 1946

Voyages from our solar system to other stars.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Voyages to other stars are the same service as travel between worlds, a transport industry of its own for those who go and not a change for most people.

Who is paid. Carriers buy the ships and sell the passage, assumed here as with travel between worlds, and since ships can be copied the builders and carriers that already own fleets and ports collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Wandering Sunless Planet: A planet drifting through space without orbiting any star.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wandering Sunless Planet

Dead Hand, Isaac Asimov · 1946

A planet drifting through space without orbiting any star.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a natural thing or event in space, not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Asteroid Nets: Nets launched on rockets to snare small asteroids and rock fragments.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Asteroid Nets

Asteroid Justice, V.E. Thiessen · 1947

Nets launched on rockets to snare small asteroids and rock fragments.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A net for catching small rocks is a tool within space mining, not the industry itself.

Who is paid. Mining firms buy it, and the makers of mining and space gear could all produce it, which is why it earns less than mining as a whole.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ion Drive: A spacecraft engine that pushes out charged particles, accelerating slowly but steadily to great speed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ion Drive

Equalizer, Jack Williamson · 1947

A spacecraft engine that pushes out charged particles, accelerating slowly but steadily to great speed.

built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The promise is a steady engine that takes ships to great speed on little fuel, which would change the cost of space transport; the real engine so far moves only small craft.

Who is paid. An engine is bought by whoever runs the ship, assumed here to be carriers, and established engine builders could copy it once it worked.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space-Dory: A small auxiliary spacecraft that can double as an escape boat.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space-Dory

Asteroid Justice, V.E. Thiessen · 1947

A small auxiliary spacecraft that can double as an escape boat.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A small extra craft that can serve as an escape boat is something every operator wants aboard.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy it as part of the craft, and the established builders of ships and their fittings supply it since it can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Atmospheric Braking: Slowing a spacecraft by dipping it repeatedly through a planet's upper air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atmospheric Braking

Space Cadet, Robert Heinlein · 1948

Slowing a spacecraft by dipping it repeatedly through a planet's upper air.

built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a way of flying or moving, not a product; the craft and gear that do it are judged under their own entries.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Gravity Centrifuge: A spinning training rig that lets people in weak gravity keep their muscles strong.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gravity Centrifuge

Space Cadet, Robert Heinlein · 1948

A spinning training rig that lets people in weak gravity keep their muscles strong.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping muscles strong in weak gravity matters to the few who live there, a niche.

Who is paid. Operators of bases and ships buy it for their crews, and established builders of such fittings supply it since it is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Moonbase (or Moon Base): A permanent outpost on the lunar surface.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Moonbase (or Moon Base)

240,000 Miles Straight Up, L. Ron Hubbard · 1948

A permanent outpost on the lunar surface.

built in the 2020s, about 80 years after it was imagined

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A place for many people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.

Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Moonquake-Proof Habitats: Lunar outposts engineered to ride out tremors in the Moon's crust.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Moonquake-Proof Habitats

Gentlemen, Be Seated, Robert Heinlein · 1948

Lunar outposts engineered to ride out tremors in the Moon's crust.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A place for many people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.

Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Personal Rocket Jet: A hand-held thruster that lets an astronaut move around freely outside a ship.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Personal Rocket Jet

Space Cadet, Robert Heinlein · 1948

A hand-held thruster that lets an astronaut move around freely outside a ship.

built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It helps a spacewalker get around while weightless, a niche tool for a few workers.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and the makers of suits and space gear supply it because it is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Ark: A giant vessel that carries a whole population across space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Ark

Decision Illogical, N.B. Wilkinson · 1948

A giant vessel that carries a whole population across space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A vessel carrying a whole population on a voyage of many lifetimes is an enormous building project.

Who is paid. Only a government could fund it, and the big shipbuilders and contractors already trusted with such work would be paid.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Star Drive: An engine powerful enough to carry a ship between the stars.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Star Drive

Genius, Poul Anderson · 1948

An engine powerful enough to carry a ship between the stars.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Travel to other stars would open them to trade and settlement, a transport industry of its own; it is a change for those who go, not for most people.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for the drive, and once a firm had built it others could too, so established shipbuilders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tag-Along Balloon: A floating bladder that drifts to an air leak in a sealed habitat and plugs it until repairs.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tag-Along Balloon

Gentlemen, Be Seated, Robert Heinlein · 1948

A floating bladder that drifts to an air leak in a sealed habitat and plugs it until repairs.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A drifting bladder that plugs a leak until repairs come is a simple safety item for a sealed habitat.

Who is paid. Whoever pays for the habitat pays for this, assumed here to be a government, and it is simple enough that many firms could make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Bubble Armor Space Suit: A rigid round metal shell worn instead of a soft pressure suit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bubble Armor Space Suit

Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949

A rigid round metal shell worn instead of a soft pressure suit.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A suit that keeps a person alive in vacuum is vital to its wearer but serves only the few who work in space.

Who is paid. Space operators buy suits for their crews, and the few firms that already make such gear supply them since the design can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Gee: Using the physicist's symbol for gravity as a unit for measuring acceleration loads.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gee

Sacred Martian Pig (Idris' Pig), Margaret St. Clair · 1949

Using the physicist's symbol for gravity as a unit for measuring acceleration loads.

built since, date unclear

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a word or a unit of measure, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Computing, AI and virtual worlds · 21
Illustration of Iridium-Sponge Brain: A metal thinking organ that gives robots a humanlike mind.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Iridium-Sponge Brain

Adam Link's Vengeance, Eando Binder · 1940

A metal thinking organ that gives robots a humanlike mind.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine mind as able as a person could do most kinds of work, which changes how nearly everyone earns a living.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Suicide: A machine chooses to end its own existence and rigs a way to do it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Suicide

Adam Link's Vengeance, Eando Binder · 1940

A machine chooses to end its own existence and rigs a way to do it.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is an act a machine chooses in the story and not a product anyone buys.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Neoterics: Supplies inventive design talent whenever you ask, turning out new engineering solutions on demand.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Neoterics

Microcosmic God, Theodore Sturgeon · 1941

Supplies inventive design talent whenever you ask, turning out new engineering solutions on demand.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Inventive design talent on demand would change the cost of engineering, which I take as a single industry since the description promises designs and not a general thinking machine.

Who is paid. Firms pay for the designs, and the description names nothing that would stop a second supplier, so I assume no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Positronic Brain: A thinking processor able to match the mental power of a human.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Positronic Brain

Reason, Isaac Asimov · 1941

A thinking processor able to match the mental power of a human.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that thinks as well as a person could do much of the work people now do, which changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Auto-Clerk: Software that keeps books and handles financial records without a human bookkeeper.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Auto-Clerk

Beyond This Horizon, Robert Heinlein · 1942

Software that keeps books and handles financial records without a human bookkeeper.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Keeping the books without bookkeepers changes a cost every firm bears.

Who is paid. Firms pay, the software is easy to copy, and sellers who already hold a firm's records are hard to leave, so they collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of The Twonky: A disguised machine sent back from later times, hidden inside an old radio cabinet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

The Twonky

The Twonky, Lewis Padgett · 1942

A disguised machine sent back from later times, hidden inside an old radio cabinet.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. The description names no use for it, so I took it as the story shows it, a stray machine that takes over its owner's life, which is a hazard and not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Three Laws of Robotics (Rules of Robotics): A short ranked code of conduct built into machines to keep humans safe and obeyed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Three Laws of Robotics (Rules of Robotics)

Runaround, Isaac Asimov · 1942

A short ranked code of conduct built into machines to keep humans safe and obeyed.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A rule that keeps robots from harming people is what lets them be trusted in homes and workplaces, which the robot trade depends on, and I judged it as a working part of the robot.

Who is paid. Robot makers pay to have it, every one of them must fit something like it, and it is sold inside robots, so the robot makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Verhaeren Factor: A component that gives self-directed machines the ability to create and act on original ideas.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Verhaeren Factor

Robinc, Anthony Boucher · 1943

A component that gives self-directed machines the ability to create and act on original ideas.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that thinks as well as a person could do much of the work people now do, which changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Voice: A speaking unit for machines modeled on how people produce sound.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Voice

Catch That Rabbit, Isaac Asimov · 1944

A speaking unit for machines modeled on how people produce sound.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A voice for a machine is a handy part of a larger product and little on its own.

Who is paid. Machine builders buy it as a part, and many firms can make a speaking unit, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Games Machine: An enormous computer that administers society's competitive examinations.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Games Machine

World of Null-A, A.E. van Vogt · 1945

An enormous computer that administers society's competitive examinations.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. One machine that examines everyone and decides who rises would replace a whole system of schools, boards and elections.

Who is paid. The state pays for a single machine, and the firms that already build large computing works for governments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Carson Circuit: A switching method that sorts and routes requests among a vast number of information sources.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Carson Circuit

A Logic Named Joe, Murray Leinster · 1946

A switching method that sorts and routes requests among a vast number of information sources.

built in 1969, 23 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Routing every request to the right source is one needed part of a world network, and it changes that network's costs rather than how people live.

Who is paid. It is a switching method sold to network owners, it is easy to copy, and those who own the networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Logics: Home terminals that answer typed questions and show the results on a screen.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Logics

A Logic Named Joe, Murray Leinster · 1946

Home terminals that answer typed questions and show the results on a screen.

built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A terminal at home that answers any typed question changes how most people learn, shop and decide.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy one each, many firms can make them, and those with factories, brands and the network lines collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Logics Service: A remote service that holds a person's records, calendar and messages and serves them anywhere.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Logics Service

A Logic Named Joe, Murray Leinster · 1946

A remote service that holds a person's records, calendar and messages and serves them anywhere.

built in the 1990s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Keeping a person's records and messages safe and reachable from anywhere is a service nearly everyone would use.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for it, and since it is easy to copy the firms that already own the great computer halls and networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Tanks: Central banks of stored data that a network of terminals draws on.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tanks

A Logic Named Joe, Murray Leinster · 1946

Central banks of stored data that a network of terminals draws on.

built in 1956, 10 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Central stores of data that every terminal draws on are an industry of their own.

Who is paid. The firms that run networks and services pay for them, and since such stores are easy to copy, those that already own the buildings, lines and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Prime Directive: A top-priority rule built into machines that overrides all others, usually to keep people safe.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Prime Directive

With Folded Hands, Jack Williamson · 1947

A top-priority rule built into machines that overrides all others, usually to keep people safe.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A rule that keeps robots from harming people is what lets them be trusted in homes and workplaces, which the robot trade depends on, and I judged it as a working part of the robot.

Who is paid. Robot makers pay to have it, every one of them must fit something like it, and it is sold inside robots, so the robot makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Novel-Writing Machines: Machines that churn out stories with no human author.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Novel-Writing Machines

1984 (Nineteen Eighty-Four), George Orwell · 1948

Machines that churn out stories with no human author.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Whole stories written with no author would change the costs of the publishing trade.

Who is paid. Publishers, studios and other firms are assumed to be the main buyers, and once the method is known many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Speakwrite: A machine that turns spoken words directly into printed text.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Speakwrite

1984 (Nineteen Eighty-Four), George Orwell · 1948

A machine that turns spoken words directly into printed text.

built in the 1950s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Turning speech into text saves typing, which is a real convenience but not an industry in itself.

Who is paid. Offices buy it for their paperwork, and once machines can hear words many firms can make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Versificator: A machine that automatically writes song lyrics to fit a melody.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Versificator

1984 (Nineteen Eighty-Four), George Orwell · 1948

A machine that automatically writes song lyrics to fit a melody.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Song lyrics written with no human maker would change the costs of the whole trade that now pays people to make them, which is far more than an amusement.

Who is paid. I assume the firms that now pay writers, composers and illustrators are the main buyers, though people may also order for themselves, and once the method is known many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Metal Calculator Planet: A whole world encased in miles of machinery under a metal shell, working as one giant computer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Metal Calculator Planet

Limiting Factor, Clifford Simak · 1949

A whole world encased in miles of machinery under a metal shell, working as one giant computer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. One computer the size of a world could answer questions no smaller machine could, though it serves whoever owns it and not everyone.

Who is paid. I assume only a government could pay for such a work, and since size alone does not stop others building one the firms that already build large works for governments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Introspection: A robot mind that develops over time and comes to understand its own workings.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Introspection

Unforeseen, Roger P. Graham · 1949

A robot mind that develops over time and comes to understand its own workings.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine mind that understands its own workings can explain and correct itself, which makes thinking machines far safer to put to work.

Who is paid. Robot makers pay to have it and sell it inside their robots, and I assume others could learn the method once it was shown to work, so the robot makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Visiglobe: A ball-shaped screen that shows a scene in full depth from any side.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Visiglobe

Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949

A ball-shaped screen that shows a scene in full depth from any side.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A ball that shows a scene in full depth is a striking kind of screen but does little a flat one cannot.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it for show and entertainment, and since it is easy to copy, the firms that already own screen factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Communication, media and displays · 30
Illustration of Bifocal TV Screen Lenses: Eyeglasses whose lower half doubles as a small video display.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bifocal TV Screen Lenses

Doom Over Venus, Edmond Hamilton · 1940

Eyeglasses whose lower half doubles as a small video display.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A screen in your glasses, working as promised, would take over much of what people now do on handheld screens.

Who is paid. People buy them for themselves, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hush-a-Phone: A mouthpiece attachment for phones that keeps a caller's voice private and cuts room noise.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hush-a-Phone

The Roads Must Roll, Robert Heinlein · 1940

A mouthpiece attachment for phones that keeps a caller's voice private and cuts room noise.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A mouthpiece that keeps a call private and cuts room noise is a minor convenience.

Who is paid. Callers buy it as an add-on and it is a simple shaped part anyone can make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pocket-Caller: A small private phone that fits in a pocket.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pocket-Caller

The Worlds of Tomorrow, Manly Wade Wellman · 1940

A small private phone that fits in a pocket.

built in the 1970s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A phone carried everywhere changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; handsets are easy to copy, so the firms that own the networks and airwaves collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Soft Speaker: A speaker that aims sound in a narrow beam at one listener.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Soft Speaker

The Exhalted, L. Sprague de Camp · 1940

A speaker that aims sound in a narrow beam at one listener.

built in the 2000s, about 60 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Sound aimed at one listener is useful in shops, museums and cars but few people need it.

Who is paid. Shops and exhibit makers buy it, and since many can make such a speaker, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Synthetic Voice: Machine-made speech that sounds like a person talking.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Synthetic Voice

The Amazon Fights Again, Thornton Ayre · 1940

Machine-made speech that sounds like a person talking.

built in the 1970s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that speak like people let firms answer calls, read text aloud and voice their products without hiring speakers.

Who is paid. Firms buy it to build into their own products and services, and since many can make a talking machine, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Trumpaphone: A blaring musical horn with a harsh metallic sound.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Trumpaphone

The Voyage That Lasted 600 Years, Don Wilcox · 1940

A blaring musical horn with a harsh metallic sound.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A loud, harsh horn is one more musical instrument for the few who want it.

Who is paid. Players buy it, and since any instrument maker could build one, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Voder: A machine that generates spoken words without any human voice.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Voder

Exit From Asteroid 60, D.L. James · 1940

A machine that generates spoken words without any human voice.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that speak like people let firms answer calls, read text aloud and voice their products without hiring speakers.

Who is paid. Firms buy it to build into their own products and services, and since many can make a talking machine, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Bone Conduction Receiver: A hidden radio earpiece that sends sound through the skull bones.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bone Conduction Receiver

Sixth Column, Anson MacDonald · 1941

A hidden radio earpiece that sends sound through the skull bones.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Hearing through the skull bones suits a few uses, here a hidden earpiece, but for most it is one more kind of earphone.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves and the vibrating part is simple to make, so many firms sell it and none keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Chatterbox' News-Receptor: A home receiver that plays news broadcasts with no filtering of what comes through.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chatterbox' News-Receptor

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

A home receiver that plays news broadcasts with no filtering of what comes through.

built in the 2010s, about 70 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A news receiver in every home is the home end of broadcasting, which is an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Unlike the broadcasting itself, this is the set in the home, which households buy and many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Identification Beacon: A radio signal that tells others which craft is in orbit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Identification Beacon

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

A radio signal that tells others which craft is in orbit.

already existed before the story (the 1930s)

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A signal that says which craft is which is a safety fitting, needed but minor.

Who is paid. Craft operators buy it because rules require it, and it is a simple radio many firms make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Newsbox (News-Receptor): A viewer that scans broadcast programs and pulls up reports mentioning chosen keywords.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Newsbox (News-Receptor)

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

A viewer that scans broadcast programs and pulls up reports mentioning chosen keywords.

built in the 2010s, about 70 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A home receiver that picks out the reports its owner cares about is the home end of broadcasting, which is an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Unlike a tailored news service, this is the set in the home, which households buy and many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Music: Songs both composed and played by machines with no human performers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Music

The Robot God, Ray Cummings · 1941

Songs both composed and played by machines with no human performers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Songs written and played with no human performers remove the main cost of the music trade.

Who is paid. Listeners pay, and unlike a machine voice singing songs someone owns, once machines can write the songs as well anyone can run them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Wall Screen: A video display as big as a wall, or built in as the wall itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wall Screen

Star of Dreams, Jack Williamson · 1941

A video display as big as a wall, or built in as the wall itself.

built in the 2000s, about 60 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A thin screen for the wall is the form nearly every display now takes and is an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Interplanetary Communications Center: A central relay network that routes messages among settlements throughout the solar system.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Interplanetary Communications Center

QRM - Interplanetary, George O. Smith · 1942

A central relay network that routes messages among settlements throughout the solar system.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Assuming the planets are settled as in the story, a message link among them carries all their trade and news, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Assuming firms and settlers pay by the message, nothing described stops a rival from building its own stations, so the carriers and fleet owners who already hold the home networks where every message starts and ends, and the ships to place and tend stations, collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of News Roundup: Shows short summaries of current stories and lets you open any one for more.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

News Roundup

Beyond This Horizon, Robert Heinlein · 1942

Shows short summaries of current stories and lets you open any one for more.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Short summaries that open into the full story are a handier way to read the news people already get.

Who is paid. Readers pay, the layout is easy to copy, and the news firms that already gather the reports collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Telaudiogram: A method for sending voice and text messages across distances between planets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telaudiogram

The World With A Thousand Moons, Edmond Hamilton · 1942

A method for sending voice and text messages across distances between planets.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Carrying messages between ships and worlds would be a telegraph industry for a settled solar system, assuming there are many people out there to serve.

Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations, ship owners and firms trading between worlds pay for the traffic, the link is ordinary radio that others could build, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Venus Equilateral Relay Station: A hollowed space rock turned into a hub that passes messages among planets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Venus Equilateral Relay Station

QRM - Interplanetary, George O. Smith · 1942

A hollowed space rock turned into a hub that passes messages among planets.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A hub that passes messages among the planets would be the telegraph exchange of a settled solar system, assuming many people live out there.

Who is paid. Firms trading between worlds pay by the message, the description does not say the spot is the only one that would serve, so a rival hub could be built, and the carriers and fleet owners who already hold the home networks and the ships to tend a station collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Filmag: A periodical published as moving pictures rather than print.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Filmag

Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943

A periodical published as moving pictures rather than print.

built in the 2000s, about 60 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A magazine in moving pictures is one more form of entertainment among many.

Who is paid. Viewers buy or subscribe, anyone can film one, and the publishers who already have the readers and the names collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Micro Book (Microbook): A tiny compact volume, perhaps an early electronic reader.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Micro Book (Microbook)

One Way Trip, Anthony Boucher · 1943

A tiny compact volume, perhaps an early electronic reader.

built in the 1990s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Assuming it is an electronic reader and not merely a very small printed book, it changes what it costs to publish, ship and store books.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the device is easy to copy, so the publishers and shops that already own the books and papers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Polyfrequency Neutralizer: A device that cancels projected three-dimensional images, making them vanish.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Polyfrequency Neutralizer

Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943

A device that cancels projected three-dimensional images, making them vanish.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A device that wipes out projected images is a niche tool against trickery.

Who is paid. I assumed police and armies want it, so a government pays its usual equipment suppliers.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Solidograph: Beams solid-looking three-dimensional pictures to far-off places.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solidograph

Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943

Beams solid-looking three-dimensional pictures to far-off places.

built in the 2010s, about 70 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Sending a lifelike solid picture of a person or place far away would be worth an industry of its own; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.

Who is paid. Households pay for the sets and the service, and as the projector could be copied, the firms that already own the networks and factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Telesolidograph: Sends lifelike three-dimensional projections across very long ranges.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telesolidograph

Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943

Sends lifelike three-dimensional projections across very long ranges.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Sending a lifelike solid picture of a person or place far away would be worth an industry of its own; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.

Who is paid. Households pay for the sets and the service, and as the projector could be copied, the firms that already own the networks and factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Viewscreen Pentagon: A central five-sided screen ringed by square monitors fixed along its edges.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Viewscreen Pentagon

Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943

A central five-sided screen ringed by square monitors fixed along its edges.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. One odd arrangement of screens round a many-sided centre is a control-room fitting, not a new kind of thing.

Who is paid. Operators of ships or control rooms buy it, and since it is only ordinary screens set in a frame, the firms that already own the screen factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Suit-Radio: A radio built into a spacesuit so two people working outside can talk.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Suit-Radio

The Long Way, George O. Smith · 1944

A radio built into a spacesuit so two people working outside can talk.

built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A radio in a spacesuit is a needed part for the few people who work outside a ship.

Who is paid. Space agencies pay for it as part of the suit, and since it is an ordinary radio, the firms that already hold the suit contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sleeve Communicator: Controls for gadgets woven into the cuff of a garment.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sleeve Communicator

First Contact, Murray Leinster · 1945

Controls for gadgets woven into the cuff of a garment.

built in 1983, 38 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Controls woven into a cuff are a convenience.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it and any clothing or gadget maker could add them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Vision Plate: A thin flat screen for showing pictures and video.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vision Plate

First Contact, Murray Leinster · 1945

A thin flat screen for showing pictures and video.

built in 1964, 19 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A thin screen for the wall is the form nearly every display now takes and is an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spotcast: A new medium that sends one message out to many receivers at once.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spotcast

The Little Things, Henry Kuttner · 1946

A new medium that sends one message out to many receivers at once.

built since, date unclear

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A new way to send one message to many receivers at once is a broadcasting industry of its own.

Who is paid. Advertisers and news firms pay to reach the crowd, the description names no scarce channels and others could copy the method, so the firms that already own the audiences, the programmes and the stations collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Portable Telephone: A phone small enough to carry around and use away from any wire.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Portable Telephone

Space Cadet, Robert Heinlein · 1948

A phone small enough to carry around and use away from any wire.

built in the 1970s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A phone carried everywhere changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; handsets are easy to copy, so the firms that own the networks and airwaves collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Solidograph-Projector: A projector that casts a solid-looking image of a thing or person into the room.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solidograph-Projector

Police Operation, H. Beam Piper · 1948

A projector that casts a solid-looking image of a thing or person into the room.

built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A picture with true depth standing in the room would replace the flat screen and be worth an industry of its own; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.

Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Telepath Transmitter: A long-range sender that carries messages mind to mind.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telepath Transmitter

Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949

A long-range sender that carries messages mind to mind.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Sending messages straight from mind to mind over long range, judged as if it worked, would be a new kind of phone service worth an industry.

Who is paid. I assume ordinary people would pay for it like a phone, and once one sender had been built others could copy it, so the firms that already own the networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Robotics and automation · 28
Illustration of Gesturing Robot: A robot that talks with people through body movements and hand signs rather than speech.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gesturing Robot

Robbie, Isaac Asimov · 1940

A robot that talks with people through body movements and hand signs rather than speech.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Talking through gestures instead of speech is a feature of a robot, not a reason to buy it.

Who is paid. Families pay for it only within the price of a home robot, and any maker could add it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robbie: A robot that looks after and plays with young children.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robbie

Robbie, Isaac Asimov · 1940

A robot that looks after and plays with young children.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Reliable care and play for young children at home would be worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Families buy it, and since they are assumed to trust only known names with their children the established makers with strong brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Talking Robot: A speaking mechanical figure built for show rather than useful work.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Talking Robot

Robbie, Isaac Asimov · 1940

A speaking mechanical figure built for show rather than useful work.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A speaking figure built for show draws a crowd but does no useful work, a niche.

Who is paid. Showmen and exhibitors buy it, and many makers could build one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Charging Arm: A limb a robot uses to plug itself in and top up its own battery.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Charging Arm

Masters of Chance, William Morrison · 1941

A limb a robot uses to plug itself in and top up its own battery.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Topping up its own battery is a useful feature of a machine, not a product people seek for itself.

Who is paid. Firms that run robots or pilotless craft pay for it as part of the machine, and any maker can add it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Floating Robot: A robot that hovers above the ground instead of walking or rolling.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Floating Robot

The Floating Robot, David Wright O'Brien · 1941

A robot that hovers above the ground instead of walking or rolling.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Hovering instead of walking is a way of getting about, and the description gives the robot no job.

Who is paid. Firms are assumed to buy it for work over rough floors, and once hovering works others could copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Golden Shuttles (Mechanical Mice): Tiny machines that hunt down and consume clockwork components.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Golden Shuttles (Mechanical Mice)

The Mechanical Mice, Maurice G. Hugi · 1941

Tiny machines that hunt down and consume clockwork components.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Tiny machines that hunt and eat clockwork are a pest in the story, doing only harm and serving no owner the description names.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robopark: A garage where machines store and retrieve cars without drivers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robopark

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

A garage where machines store and retrieve cars without drivers.

built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A garage that parks and fetches cars by machine saves space and time in crowded cities, a convenience where the real thing exists.

Who is paid. Garage owners buy the machinery, and many firms can make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Mother: A machine that builds its own swarm of adaptable assistant machines.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Mother

The Mechanical Mice, Maurice G. Hugi · 1941

A machine that builds its own swarm of adaptable assistant machines.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that builds its own crew of helper machines could take over whole jobs, judged as large and not vast because it builds helpers and not copies of itself.

Who is paid. Firms buy it for their work, and since the design can be copied the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Roboticist: An engineer who builds or looks after robots.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Roboticist

Robot AL-76 Goes Astray, Isaac Asimov · 1941

An engineer who builds or looks after robots.

built since, date unclear

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An engineer who builds and looks after robots sells a skilled service that every owner of robots would need, judged here as the trade that serves the robot industry.

Who is paid. Firms that make or own robots pay for the work, and it is a skill many people can learn, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robotics: The discipline of designing, building and servicing robots.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robotics

Liar, Isaac Asimov · 1941

The discipline of designing, building and servicing robots.

built since, date unclear

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A discipline has no price of its own, so it is judged as the work its practitioners sell, the designing, building and servicing of robots, which serves the robot industry.

Who is paid. Firms that make or own robots pay for the work, and the knowledge is assumed to be taught openly so that many can learn it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Fairy Digits (Tiny Waldoes): Miniature remote-controlled hands that copy an operator's motions at very small scale.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fairy Digits (Tiny Waldoes)

Waldo, Robert Heinlein · 1942

Miniature remote-controlled hands that copy an operator's motions at very small scale.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Tiny hands that copy an operator would open up very fine assembly and surgery.

Who is paid. Factories and hospitals buy them, and as scaled-down remote hands can be copied the established makers of precision and medical equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pilot-Robot: Automatic steering equipment that flies a small work vessel in space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pilot-Robot

Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942

Automatic steering equipment that flies a small work vessel in space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Automatic steering for a small work vessel is a fitting, valued as part of the craft.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the price of the craft, and any shipbuilder can fit it, so nothing more is kept for it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Wabbler: A self-guided machine that moves and operates beneath the sea without a crew.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wabbler

The Wabbler, Murray Leinster · 1942

A self-guided machine that moves and operates beneath the sea without a crew.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that guides itself under the sea with no crew would lower the cost of work under water; the description names no task, so that use is assumed.

Who is paid. Offshore firms are assumed to buy it, and since many could build one the marine-equipment makers with yards and fleets collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Waldo: A remote manipulator that reproduces the movements of an operator's hands on a mechanical pair.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Waldo

Waldo, Robert Heinlein · 1942

A remote manipulator that reproduces the movements of an operator's hands on a mechanical pair.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Mechanical hands that copy an operator's hands from afar are a useful tool for dangerous or awkward work, a niche where the real thing exists.

Who is paid. Firms buy it for their own work, and such hands and controls are easy for many makers to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Chef: A machine that invents and prepares meals entirely by itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Chef

Robinc, Anthony Boucher · 1943

A machine that invents and prepares meals entirely by itself.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that invents and cooks meals by itself, assumed here to be for the home, would take over the large daily chore.

Who is paid. Families buy it, and since it can be copied the kitchen-appliance makers with factories, shops and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Taste Buds: A sensor that lets a machine sample flavors the way a human tongue does.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Taste Buds

Robinc, Anthony Boucher · 1943

A sensor that lets a machine sample flavors the way a human tongue does.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sensor that tastes as a tongue does is a feature that lets a machine cook or test food.

Who is paid. Robot makers pay for it as a part of the machines they sell to firms, and any of them could fit it, so nothing extra is kept.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sea Robot: A huge machine built to operate underwater in the open ocean.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sea Robot

The Metal Monster (Jarvis), E.K. Jarvis · 1943

A huge machine built to operate underwater in the open ocean.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A huge machine that works in the open ocean would lower the cost of building, mining and repair under the sea, assuming that is its use.

Who is paid. Offshore firms buy it, and since many could build one the marine-equipment makers with yards and fleets collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Usuform Robot: A machine shaped purely for the job it does rather than to look human.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Usuform Robot

Q.U.R., Anthony Boucher · 1943

A machine shaped purely for the job it does rather than to look human.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A robot shaped for the job it does is by its design a machine for a single trade and not the worker that can do most things, so each kind changes the costs of its own industry.

Who is paid. Firms buy them as equipment for their trade, and since many could build them the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Usuform Robot Bartender: A drink-serving machine shaped only by its task, not like a person.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Usuform Robot Bartender

Q.U.R., Anthony Boucher · 1943

A drink-serving machine shaped only by its task, not like a person.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine shaped only to serve drinks takes over a single job in the bar trade, a convenience and not a whole premises run with no staff.

Who is paid. Bar owners buy it, and a drink-serving machine is easy for many makers to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Vastening: A machine sense that perceives the world in a way humans lack words for.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vastening

The Proud Robot, Lewis Padgett · 1943

A machine sense that perceives the world in a way humans lack words for.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sense people have no words for is a feature of a machine, and the description does not say what it is good for.

Who is paid. Robot makers pay for it as a part of the machines they sell to firms, and any of them could fit it, so nothing extra is kept.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Automatic Massager

Far Centaurus, A.E. van Vogt · 1944

A robot with mechanical arms and hands that gives full-body massages without a therapist.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine massage is a comfort, not a need.

Who is paid. Spas and gyms are assumed to buy it, and mechanical arms of this kind are easy for many makers to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Multiple Robot Team: A lead robot directs a crew of simpler helper robots so the group works together on one job.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Multiple Robot Team

Catch That Rabbit, Isaac Asimov · 1944

A lead robot directs a crew of simpler helper robots so the group works together on one job.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A crew of robots led by one of their own could take over whole jobs in mines and plants.

Who is paid. Firms buy the crew, and since the robots and their way of working together can be copied the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robotic Arm: A mechanical limb that reaches out and grips objects.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robotic Arm

City, Clifford Simak · 1944

A mechanical limb that reaches out and grips objects.

built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A limb that reaches and grips is a useful tool for awkward jobs, taken here as a simple gripper and so a niche.

Who is paid. Firms buy it for their own work, and such arms are easy for many makers to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mining Worm (Robot): A long, segmented self-directed machine that burrows through rock to dig out ore.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mining Worm (Robot)

Love Among The Robots, Emmett McDowell · 1946

A long, segmented self-directed machine that burrows through rock to dig out ore.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Digging out ore with no crew would cut the cost of mining and earthworks.

Who is paid. Mining and building firms buy them, and the heavy-equipment makers who already supply those firms can copy the idea and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Cat: A living house cat whose body has been partly rebuilt with machine components.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Cat

The Cat and the King, Raymond F. Jones · 1946

A living house cat whose body has been partly rebuilt with machine components.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A house cat partly rebuilt with machine parts is judged as a pet kept alive or improved, a niche.

Who is paid. Pet owners pay, and once the work is shown many workshops and animal doctors could do it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Roboticist: A profession devoted to designing, building and studying robots.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Roboticist

Evidence, Isaac Asimov · 1946

A profession devoted to designing, building and studying robots.

built since, date unclear

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A profession that designs, builds and studies robots sells a skilled service that every maker and owner of robots would need, judged here as the trade that serves the robot industry.

Who is paid. Firms that make or own robots pay for the work, and it is a skill many people can learn, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Machine Servant: A household helper robot on wheels with flexible jointed arms for chores.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Machine Servant

The Star of Life, Edmond Hamilton · 1947

A household helper robot on wheels with flexible jointed arms for chores.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that takes over housework would be worth an industry of its own, though it serves the home alone and not work at large.

Who is paid. Families buy it like any large appliance, and it is easy enough to copy that the appliance makers with factories, shops and trusted brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mechanical Funeral: A burial ceremony carried out entirely by machines with no human staff.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mechanical Funeral

The Coffin, Ray Bradbury · 1947

A burial ceremony carried out entirely by machines with no human staff.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A burial run by machines saves the staff of a narrow trade, where staff are assumed to be a lesser part of what families pay for.

Who is paid. Funeral firms buy the machinery, and nothing in it would be hard for many makers to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Medicine, biotech and longevity · 21
Illustration of Merry-Go-Round Life Suspension (Refrigerator Plant): Refrigerated equipment that keeps people in a frozen sleep for long stretches.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Merry-Go-Round Life Suspension (Refrigerator Plant)

The Voyage That Lasted 600 Years, Don Wilcox · 1940

Refrigerated equipment that keeps people in a frozen sleep for long stretches.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Frozen sleep for long stretches would open long voyages and change their costs.

Who is paid. Voyage operators pay, and makers of cooling plant collect since the equipment can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Methuen Treatment: Shots that raise mental ability.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Methuen Treatment

The Exhalted, L. Sprague de Camp · 1940

Shots that raise mental ability.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Raising mental ability would be wanted by a great many people; assumed the gain is real but modest.

Who is paid. People pay for the shots, and the developer keeps the gain because a new medicine is protected from copying.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tectogenetic: Deliberately editing genomes to create entirely new kinds of living organisms.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tectogenetic

Crisis in Utopia, Norman L. Knight · 1940

Deliberately editing genomes to create entirely new kinds of living organisms.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Making new kinds of living things to order would serve farming, medicine and industry.

Who is paid. Firms would buy such organisms for their work, and once the method was known other laboratories could repeat it, so established seed, chemical and drug makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cold-Rest: Chilling a person so their bodily processes slow into a deep dormant rest.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cold-Rest

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

Chilling a person so their bodily processes slow into a deep dormant rest.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Putting people safely into long dormancy would make very long journeys possible and give hospitals time to treat the gravely ill.

Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cold-Sleep: Putting a person into a chilled, slowed-down state like an animal's winter dormancy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cold-Sleep

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

Putting a person into a chilled, slowed-down state like an animal's winter dormancy.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Putting people safely into long dormancy would make very long journeys possible and give hospitals time to treat the gravely ill.

Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Dewlog: A medicine that, as a side effect, almost wipes out the feeling of hunger.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dewlog

The Traitor, Kurt von Rachen · 1941

A medicine that, as a side effect, almost wipes out the feeling of hunger.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A medicine that nearly removes hunger would be wanted by a great many people trying to lose weight.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and a new treatment is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps much of the gain.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Howard Families: A scheme of selective marriages meant to breed a line of people who live very long.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Howard Families

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

A scheme of selective marriages meant to breed a line of people who live very long.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A scheme of chosen marriages is a private arrangement, not a product anyone can buy.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Moon-Terror: A condition that afflicts people living long-term under weak gravity.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Moon-Terror

Star of Dreams, Jack Williamson · 1941

A condition that afflicts people living long-term under weak gravity.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is an illness of life under weak gravity, not something made or sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sleep Surrogate: A medicine that fully restores the body and brain after missed sleep, as if one had slept.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sleep Surrogate

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

A medicine that fully restores the body and brain after missed sleep, as if one had slept.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Standing in fully for sleep would hand nearly every adult many more waking hours, changing how most people live and work.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and a new drug is protected from copying for a long while, so its maker keeps much of the gain.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Vanwinkling: Skipping ahead in time by sleeping through the years to wake in a later age.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vanwinkling

The Best-Laid Scheme, L. Sprague de Camp · 1941

Skipping ahead in time by sleeping through the years to wake in a later age.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The name is of the practice, so the thing judged is the long sleep behind it, which belongs with other forms of long dormancy.

Who is paid. I assumed firms that run sleep vaults buy the equipment and charge the sleepers; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run such premises collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Young Blood - New Blood For Old: Swapping the fluid part of an elderly person's blood for fluid from youthful donors.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Young Blood - New Blood For Old

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

Swapping the fluid part of an elderly person's blood for fluid from youthful donors.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Holding off old age meets about the deepest need there is, and nearly everyone alive would want it.

Who is paid. People would pay for themselves; unlike a drug this is a procedure any clinic could learn, so established clinics and blood services that can find donors collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gravanol: A drug that helps the body withstand strong acceleration during spaceflight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gravanol

QRM - Interplanetary, George O. Smith · 1942

A drug that helps the body withstand strong acceleration during spaceflight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It serves only people who work in space or under unusual gravity, which is a niche.

Who is paid. I assumed employers and space carriers buy it for their crews; a new drug is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what little is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gravitation Paralysis: A disease that strikes travelers who move abruptly from feeble to heavy gravity.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gravitation Paralysis

The World With A Thousand Moons, Edmond Hamilton · 1942

A disease that strikes travelers who move abruptly from feeble to heavy gravity.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a disease, not a technology.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sobriety Ray: A beam of light that instantly clears intoxication from anyone it strikes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sobriety Ray

The Twonky, Lewis Padgett · 1942

A beam of light that instantly clears intoxication from anyone it strikes.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Clearing drunkenness in a moment is a convenience for drinkers and those who deal with them.

Who is paid. I assumed drinkers and bars buy it; unlike a sobering pill this is a device others could copy, so established makers of such equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Eternity Drug: A medicine that puts someone into a dormant sleep lasting decades, used to survive very long voyages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Eternity Drug

Far Centaurus, A.E. van Vogt · 1944

A medicine that puts someone into a dormant sleep lasting decades, used to survive very long voyages.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Sleeping through a very long voyage would make such journeys possible, as with other forms of long dormancy.

Who is paid. I assumed carriers buy it for their crews; unlike a sleep chamber this is a drug, which is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Life Blanket: A living mat of plant life that gains awareness when worn and serves its host.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Life Blanket

Ogre, Clifford Simak · 1944

A living mat of plant life that gains awareness when worn and serves its host.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a living creature in the story, not a technology anyone makes and sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mal de Void: Nausea and disorientation that travelers suffer in weightless flight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mal de Void

Off the Beam, George O. Smith · 1944

Nausea and disorientation that travelers suffer in weightless flight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a sickness travellers suffer, not something made or sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Vitalizer: A commercial pick-me-up sold to people who feel worn out.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vitalizer

The Soma Racks, Margaret St. Clair · 1947

A commercial pick-me-up sold to people who feel worn out.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A lift for people who feel worn out is something a great many would buy.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and I assumed it is a stimulant of an old kind many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Emergency Treatment Tank (Chamber): A sealed pod that heals and regrows an injured body.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Emergency Treatment Tank (Chamber)

Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949

A sealed pod that heals and regrows an injured body.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Regrowing lost or ruined tissue would change what hospitals can do for the badly injured.

Who is paid. I assumed hospitals buy and run it; once it worked other makers could copy it, so established medical equipment firms and hospitals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Plastiskin: A synthetic covering that makes a prosthetic limb look like real flesh.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plastiskin

Unforeseen, Roger P. Graham · 1949

A synthetic covering that makes a prosthetic limb look like real flesh.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lifelike cover for an artificial limb is a comfort for a limited group.

Who is paid. Wearers pay, and established makers of artificial limbs collect since the covering is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Scurvy (Kenoalgia): A fictional illness that wears down people on long space journeys.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Scurvy (Kenoalgia)

Sacred Martian Pig (Idris' Pig), Margaret St. Clair · 1949

A fictional illness that wears down people on long space journeys.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is an illness, not a technology.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Mind and neurotechnology · 21
Illustration of Dream-Adventures: Entertainment experiences fed straight into the sleeping mind, rivalling cinema as popular leisure.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dream-Adventures

Doom Over Venus, Edmond Hamilton · 1940

Entertainment experiences fed straight into the sleeping mind, rivalling cinema as popular leisure.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Stories lived as experience would rival film and games as popular leisure, as the story promises.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay for each experience, the machine could be copied, and the studios that own the stories and the names people know would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Dream-House: A venue where customers have vivid adventure dreams planted in their heads.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dream-House

Doom Over Venus, Edmond Hamilton · 1940

A venue where customers have vivid adventure dreams planted in their heads.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. This is the venue rather than the machine, but it sells the same thing: dreamed adventures that rival film as popular leisure.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay for each experience, the machine could be copied, and the studios that own the stories and the names people know would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Dream-Machine: A machine that broadcasts identical mass-produced dreams into sleepers' heads.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dream-Machine

Doom Over Venus, Edmond Hamilton · 1940

A machine that broadcasts identical mass-produced dreams into sleepers' heads.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Stories lived as experience would rival film and games as popular leisure, as the story promises.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay for each experience, the machine could be copied, and the studios that own the stories and the names people know would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mind-Shield: A barrier that keeps other minds or machines from reading or entering someone's thoughts.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mind-Shield

Slan, A.E. van Vogt · 1940

A barrier that keeps other minds or machines from reading or entering someone's thoughts.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It only matters where minds can be read, and then it guards privacy much as a lock does.

Who is paid. I assume the barrier is a made or taught thing, which the description does not say; people who fear being read would buy it and many could supply it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of San-Ray Projector: A beam that gives a pleasant nervous thrill, fogs thinking and leaves users craving more.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

San-Ray Projector

Hell Ship of Space, Frederic Arnold Kummer, Jr. · 1940

A beam that gives a pleasant nervous thrill, fogs thinking and leaves users craving more.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A thrill that leaves users craving more would draw a large and steady demand, as strong drugs do.

Who is paid. Users would buy it for themselves, legal or not, and it is simple enough that many makers could supply it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Group Ego: Merges several people's bodies under one shared consciousness that thinks and acts as a single self.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Group Ego

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

Merges several people's bodies under one shared consciousness that thinks and acts as a single self.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. I took this to be a merged way of being for a group of people, with no made device named, so not a thing that can be made and sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hypnosis Ray: A beam that plants a leader's message into the heads of easily fooled people.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hypnosis Ray

Beyond All Weapons, Eric Frank Russell · 1941

A beam that plants a leader's message into the heads of easily fooled people.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Swaying a whole population at once would be worth a great deal to any ruler who wanted it.

Who is paid. A government would pay, and once the device existed the firms that already build broadcasting and security gear could copy it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hypnotic injunction: Uses trance suggestion to block a person from disclosing chosen secrets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hypnotic injunction

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

Uses trance suggestion to block a person from disclosing chosen secrets.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Blocking a person from telling chosen secrets is a narrow tool for guarding them.

Who is paid. I assumed a state or a great house of power pays for it, and though it is a technique rather than a machine, the security services and their usual suppliers would do the work and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Improve Memory: Treatment that helps very long-lived people organise and understand what they remember.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Improve Memory

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

Treatment that helps very long-lived people organise and understand what they remember.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Sorting the memories of a very long life only matters to people who live that long, a niche unless long life comes too.

Who is paid. The long-lived would pay for it themselves, and it is a method any trained person could offer, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Thought-Screen: A shield that stops outside minds from seizing control of your thinking.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Thought-Screen

Gray Lensman, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1942

A shield that stops outside minds from seizing control of your thinking.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It only matters where minds can be seized, and then it guards a person much as a lock does.

Who is paid. People who fear being read would buy it for themselves, assuming it is sold openly, and it is simple enough for many makers to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Vestan Parasite: Partly thinking organisms that seize command of other animals' nervous systems.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vestan Parasite

The World With A Thousand Moons, Edmond Hamilton · 1942

Partly thinking organisms that seize command of other animals' nervous systems.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a creature that preys on other animals, a hazard and not something made to be sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is made or sold here, so there is no buyer and no seller.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mixed Men: People who are largely human but carry an added mechanical brain alongside their own.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mixed Men

The Storm, A.E. van Vogt · 1943

People who are largely human but carry an added mechanical brain alongside their own.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An added machine brain working beside the natural one would be an industry of its own, though the description does not say what the extra brain does.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and since the implant could be copied the firms that already run the networks and do the surgery would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Personality Alteration: Methods for permanently remaking someone's character and temperament.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Personality Alteration

Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943

Methods for permanently remaking someone's character and temperament.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Remaking a person's character for good would be an industry of its own for those unhappy with who they are.

Who is paid. The description does not say whether the subject is willing; I assume people seek it for themselves and pay, and the clinics that already treat the mind would collect since the methods could be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Psychoscanner: A machine that reads memories and emotions out of a living brain, human or animal.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Psychoscanner

Propagandist, Murray Leinster · 1947

A machine that reads memories and emotions out of a living brain, human or animal.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Reading memories and feelings out of any living brain would reshape questioning and the study of animals alike.

Who is paid. It is worked by an operator on a subject, human or animal, so I assume the state and its services are the main buyers, and the firms that already supply them would collect since it could be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Brain Erasure: Removing chosen memories from someone's brain with electric pulses.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Brain Erasure

The Knowledge Machine, Edmond Hamilton · 1948

Removing chosen memories from someone's brain with electric pulses.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Removing chosen memories would treat trauma and grief for a great many people, worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Patients would pay, the method could be copied once known, and the clinics and medicine firms already trusted with such care would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Electro-Education: Teaching people by stimulating their brains with electricity.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electro-Education

The Knowledge Machine, Edmond Hamilton · 1948

Teaching people by stimulating their brains with electricity.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Putting knowledge straight into the brain would replace years of schooling and training for most people.

Who is paid. Families and learners would pay for it themselves, and once one firm had built the gear others could copy it and many could write the lessons, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Learning-Cap: A helmet that feeds knowledge into the brain through electrical stimulation.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Learning-Cap

The Knowledge Machine, Edmond Hamilton · 1948

A helmet that feeds knowledge into the brain through electrical stimulation.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Putting knowledge straight into the brain would replace years of schooling and training for most people.

Who is paid. Families and learners would pay for it themselves, and once one firm had built the gear others could copy it and many could write the lessons, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Precog (v): The act of perceiving events before they happen.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Precog (v)

Police Operation, H. Beam Piper · 1948

The act of perceiving events before they happen.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is the act of using a born gift, not something made or taught that could be sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is made or sold here, so there is no buyer and no seller.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mind-Lock: A shield that seals off a person's thoughts from outside mental contact.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mind-Lock

Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949

A shield that seals off a person's thoughts from outside mental contact.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It only matters where minds can be read, and then it guards privacy much as a lock does.

Who is paid. People who fear being read would buy it for themselves, assuming it is sold openly, and it is simple enough for many makers to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mind-Parasite: A fictional organism in the story that seizes control of a host's mind.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mind-Parasite

Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949

A fictional organism in the story that seizes control of a host's mind.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a creature that preys on people, a hazard and not something made to be sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is made or sold here, so there is no buyer and no seller.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Quizzer: A self-operating device that interrogates a person's mind.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Quizzer

Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949

A self-operating device that interrogates a person's mind.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that questions a mind by itself would reshape police work and spying.

Who is paid. It is done to a subject, so though banned in the story it is judged as bought by a state: the state would pay for it as an interrogation tool, and since it could be copied the firms that already supply police and security services would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Transport and mobility · 20
Illustration of Air Scooter: A one-person craft that lets its rider fly short hops through the air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Air Scooter

Space Double, Nat Schachner · 1940

A one-person craft that lets its rider fly short hops through the air.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description promises only short hops, so it is a sport and a convenience rather than a way most people would travel.

Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Rocket-Belt: A one-person thrust pack worn on the body for flight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rocket-Belt

The Worlds of Tomorrow, Manly Wade Wellman · 1940

A one-person thrust pack worn on the body for flight.

built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Free personal flight with no limit stated would be an industry of its own, replacing many trips now made by car.

Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Rolling Road: Bands of moving pavement at graded speeds that carry crowds across long distances.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rolling Road

The Roads Must Roll, Robert Heinlein · 1940

Bands of moving pavement at graded speeds that carry crowds across long distances.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Moving pavements that carry crowds over long distances would replace trains and roads on their routes, which would change the cost of travel there.

Who is paid. Governments pay for a public way of this size, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Steel Tortoise: A rugged armoured vehicle able to cross almost any ground.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Steel Tortoise

Coventry, Robert Heinlein · 1940

A rugged armoured vehicle able to cross almost any ground.

built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An armoured vehicle that crosses almost any ground is worth having for an army or an expedition, and few are needed.

Who is paid. I assume armies are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold army supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Stratospheric Traffic: Congested air lanes where personal aircraft jam the sky at all altitudes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stratospheric Traffic

The Great God Awto, Clark Ashton Smith · 1940

Congested air lanes where personal aircraft jam the sky at all altitudes.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Crowded air lanes are a nuisance that comes with personal aircraft, not a thing anyone would buy.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so there is no buyer and no seller.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Tumblebug: A motor vehicle that rides and balances on just one wheel.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tumblebug

The Roads Must Roll, Robert Heinlein · 1940

A motor vehicle that rides and balances on just one wheel.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A narrow self-balancing vehicle is a handy way round town but does little that a small car or motorbike does not.

Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Two-Wheeled Car: A compact enclosed passenger vehicle riding on two wheels set in a single line.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Two-Wheeled Car

The Roads Must Roll, Robert Heinlein · 1940

A compact enclosed passenger vehicle riding on two wheels set in a single line.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A narrow self-balancing vehicle is a handy way round town but does little that a small car or motorbike does not.

Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Bee Wing: An aircraft on the red planet that flies by beating its wings like an insect.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bee Wing

Slacker's Paradise, Malcolm Jameson · 1941

An aircraft on the red planet that flies by beating its wings like an insect.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A flapping aircraft for the thin air of another planet serves only the few people living there.

Who is paid. Settlements and their suppliers buy it, and any aircraft workshop there could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Camden Speedster: A road car that can also cross water and leap briefly into the air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Camden Speedster

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

A road car that can also cross water and leap briefly into the air.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a road car with short hops over water and through the air added, which is a thrill more than a new way to travel.

Who is paid. Drivers buy it, and since it only leaps briefly rather than flies, it is an ordinary car feature that the makers with factories and dealers collect on.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Controlway: A highway that drives every car on it, taking over steering and speed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Controlway

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

A highway that drives every car on it, taking over steering and speed.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A road that does the driving would give every car on it the gains of driverless travel, but only where such roads are built.

Who is paid. Governments pay for roads, and the control gear is not hard to copy, so the road builders and signalling suppliers that already hold public works contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Flitter: A small craft for quick hops over short distances.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flitter

Vortex Blaster, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1941

A small craft for quick hops over short distances.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description promises only short hops, so it is a sport and a convenience rather than a way most people would travel.

Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Slidewalk: A moving belt that carries people along as they stand or stroll.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Slidewalk

Sanity, Fritz Leiber · 1941

A moving belt that carries people along as they stand or stroll.

built in the 1950s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The walkway built in airports and large buildings turned out a convenience, but the story promises moving pavements in place of city streets, and that would replace buses and cars on their routes and change the cost of getting about a city.

Who is paid. I assume a town pays for it as a public way, as with the other moving streets, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Solar Car: An automobile that runs on power gathered from sunlight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solar Car

The Man Who Bought Mars, Polton Cross · 1941

An automobile that runs on power gathered from sunlight.

built in the 1980s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A car that runs on sunlight alone needs no fuel or charging, which changes the cost of driving; the real thing gathers far less than the promise, and I judge the promise, as with the vehicle sun panels judged under energy.

Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Talking Speedometer: An instrument that speaks its reading aloud instead of showing a dial.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Talking Speedometer

Biddiver, Theodore Sturgeon · 1941

An instrument that speaks its reading aloud instead of showing a dial.

built in the 1990s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A gauge that speaks its reading is a small extra for drivers.

Who is paid. Drivers pay for it with the car, and it is simple to make and fit, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Antigravity Plate (Antigravity Raft): A thin disk that hovers by cancelling gravity.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Antigravity Plate (Antigravity Raft)

Co-Operate or Else, A.E. van Vogt · 1942

A thin disk that hovers by cancelling gravity.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Cancelling gravity would make lifting and moving heavy things far cheaper, which changes the costs of transport and building rather than meeting a basic need.

Who is paid. Firms that move and lift things buy it, and once it is built others could copy it, so the vehicle and aircraft makers that already own factories and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Slideway: A moving belt pavement that carries pedestrians along without walking.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Slideway

Beyond This Horizon, Robert Heinlein · 1942

A moving belt pavement that carries pedestrians along without walking.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The description calls it a pavement, so it is judged as a moving street and not as the walkway found in large buildings, and a street that carries its walkers would change the cost of getting about a city.

Who is paid. I assume a town pays for it as a public way, as with the other moving streets, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gyrocar Monorail: A vehicle that stays upright on one rail or two wheels using spinning gyroscopes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gyrocar Monorail

The Anarch, Malcolm Jameson · 1944

A vehicle that stays upright on one rail or two wheels using spinning gyroscopes.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Balancing upright on a lone rail makes the line cheaper to lay but carries people as trains already do.

Who is paid. I assume this one runs on a rail as public transport, so a city government pays, and the established railway builders collect because a gyroscope is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Bus: A driverless bus that carries passengers without a human at the wheel.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Bus

The Little Things, Henry Kuttner · 1946

A driverless bus that carries passengers without a human at the wheel.

built in 2022, 76 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A bus with no driver to pay makes bus travel cheaper and more frequent, which would be an industry of its own.

Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the bus buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Gyrocab: A taxi that flies passengers through the air on rotors.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gyrocab

You Are Forbidden!, Jerry Shelton · 1947

A taxi that flies passengers through the air on rotors.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Hired flight across a city, working as promised, would be an industry of its own beside road cabs.

Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the air cab buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Skimmer: A craft that glides just above the ground on a cushion of lift.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Skimmer

Lost Ulysses, W.L. Bade · 1949

A craft that glides just above the ground on a cushion of lift.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Riding on a cushion of lift suits marsh, shallows and ice but is noisier and thirstier than wheels elsewhere, so it stays a niche.

Who is paid. Operators buy it, and many builders can make a cushion craft, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Energy and power · 17
Illustration of Solar Power Screen: A panel that soaks up sunlight and gives it back out as electric current.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solar Power Screen

Let There Be Light, Lyle Monroe · 1940

A panel that soaks up sunlight and gives it back out as electric current.

built in the 1950s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Electricity straight from sunlight with no fuel would change what power costs.

Who is paid. Power firms and building owners buy panels, and since many factories can make them no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Solar Reception Screen: A panel that turns the sun's light into electrical power.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solar Reception Screen

The Roads Must Roll, Robert Heinlein · 1940

A panel that turns the sun's light into electrical power.

built in the 1950s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Electricity straight from sunlight with no fuel would change what power costs.

Who is paid. Power firms and building owners buy panels, and since many factories can make them no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Solar Station Switch Room: A central control hub routing electric power to settlements across many planets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solar Station Switch Room

Doom Over Venus, Edmond Hamilton · 1940

A central control hub routing electric power to settlements across many planets.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A hub that routes power to settlements on many planets is what makes their whole supply usable.

Who is paid. Only governments could fund a work this size, and whoever builds the one hub controls a link nobody else can match.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Solid Power: A compact solid store of energy that can be tapped easily to run anything.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solid Power

Revolt on the Tenth World, Edmond Hamilton · 1940

A compact solid store of energy that can be tapped easily to run anything.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A compact solid store that can run anything would change how nearly everything is powered and moved.

Who is paid. Firms of every kind buy it, assumed here to be the largest buyers, and it is assumed that something this far beyond present skill is very hard to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sunpower Screen: Panels of solar cells that power a vehicle.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sunpower Screen

Coventry, Robert Heinlein · 1940

Panels of solar cells that power a vehicle.

built in the 1950s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A vehicle that runs on the sunlight falling on it would need no fuel, which changes what driving costs.

Who is paid. Here drivers buy a vehicle and not a bare panel, which is the difference from other panels, so the firms that already build and sell vehicles collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Quench Field: A field that halts a runaway chain reaction by soaking up its neutrons.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Quench Field

The Purple Light, E. Waldo Hunter · 1941

A field that halts a runaway chain reaction by soaking up its neutrons.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Judged as if it worked, a field that stops a runaway reaction is a safety device for the few sites that run nuclear plants.

Who is paid. Plant owners buy it, assuming it guards power plants and is not a defence against bombs, and a method this strange would be very hard for others to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Solar Energy Beam: A power plant close to the sun that beams energy out to distant worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solar Energy Beam

Masquerade, Clifford Simak · 1941

A power plant close to the sun that beams energy out to distant worlds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A plant near the sun sending power to distant worlds would supply whole settlements that have no other source.

Who is paid. Only governments could fund a work this size for whole settlements, and whoever builds the one station controls a supply nobody else can match.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Solar Station: Satellites collect sunlight in orbit and transmit the power to receivers on a planet's surface.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solar Station

Reason, Isaac Asimov · 1941

Satellites collect sunlight in orbit and transmit the power to receivers on a planet's surface.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Sunlight collected in orbit and sent down day and night would change what power costs on the ground.

Who is paid. Power companies buy the output, and the firms that already own rockets and the ground grid collect, assuming the collectors themselves can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Thermatite: A mineable asteroid substance that stores raw energy as fuel.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Thermatite

Jurisdiction, Nat Schachner · 1941

A mineable asteroid substance that stores raw energy as fuel.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as if it existed, a mined rock that holds raw energy would be a fuel worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Fuel users buy it, assumed here to be firms, and whoever holds the few asteroid deposits controls a supply others cannot get.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Uranatomic: A nuclear reactor whose fission heat is turned into electrical power.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Uranatomic

Backlash, Jack Williamson · 1941

A nuclear reactor whose fission heat is turned into electrical power.

built in the 1950s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Plentiful electricity from a little fuel would change what power costs, though the real thing turned out dearer than promised.

Who is paid. Power companies buy the plants, and because governments let only a few hands hold nuclear fuel, the few permitted makers keep what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Atomics: The engineering discipline of producing useful power from atomic nuclei.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atomics

Nerves, Lester del Rey · 1942

The engineering discipline of producing useful power from atomic nuclei.

built in 1942, 0 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The craft of making power from atoms is worth what its plants are worth, and plentiful power from a little fuel would change what electricity costs.

Who is paid. Power companies buy the plants this craft leads to, assumed here to be what is sold, and because governments let only a few hands hold nuclear fuel, the few permitted makers keep what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Contraterrene Matter (Antimatter): Matter built from antiparticles, which annihilates on contact with ordinary material.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Contraterrene Matter (Antimatter)

Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942

Matter built from antiparticles, which annihilates on contact with ordinary material.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as a fuel that can be held safely, nothing would pack more energy into less weight, which is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. A substance this dangerous is assumed to be bought only by governments, and whoever can make and hold it controls something others cannot get.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Energy Converter: A giant plant on a hot planet's dayside turning heat into power and sending it across space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Energy Converter

Runaround, Isaac Asimov · 1942

A giant plant on a hot planet's dayside turning heat into power and sending it across space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Power sent across space from a hot world would supply whole settlements that have no other source.

Who is paid. Only governments could fund a work this size for whole settlements, and whoever builds the one station controls a supply nobody else can match.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Radiant Power Receptor (DeKalbs): A receiver that captures energy beamed wirelessly from a distant station and turns it into usable power.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Radiant Power Receptor (DeKalbs)

Waldo, Robert Heinlein · 1942

A receiver that captures energy beamed wirelessly from a distant station and turns it into usable power.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Receivers that take power sent through the air would change what it costs to deliver electricity.

Who is paid. Firms buy power for their machines, and since the trick is copyable the companies that already own power stations and the delivery network collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Solar Beam: Draws energy from the sun through some direct link rather than capturing ordinary sunlight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solar Beam

The Long Way, George O. Smith · 1944

Draws energy from the sun through some direct link rather than capturing ordinary sunlight.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A direct draw on the sun's energy would change what power costs wherever it reaches.

Who is paid. Power users buy it, assumed here to be firms, and a method this strange would be very hard for others to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ship Hull Thermobatteries: Energy storage built into a spacecraft's outer skin that recharges from sunlight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ship Hull Thermobatteries

The Ethical Equations, Murray Leinster · 1945

Energy storage built into a spacecraft's outer skin that recharges from sunlight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A spacecraft skin that stores sunlight serves only the few who build spacecraft.

Who is paid. Spacecraft operators pay for it, and the firms that already build the craft collect because the part is useless without them.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Synchrophased Power Beams: Energy beams sent from several worlds and aimed together at one target.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Synchrophased Power Beams

Propagandist, Murray Leinster · 1947

Energy beams sent from several worlds and aimed together at one target.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Assuming the beams deliver power and are not a weapon, joining beams from several worlds would supply a place with no other source.

Who is paid. Only governments could fund a work this size for whole settlements, and whoever builds the one station controls a supply nobody else can match.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Materials, manufacturing and construction · 18
Illustration of Double-Pane Vacuum Window: Glazing made of two glass sheets with empty space sealed between them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Double-Pane Vacuum Window

The Achilles Heel, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1940

Glazing made of two glass sheets with empty space sealed between them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Windows that hold heat in cut heating and cooling bills in most buildings, which is worth an industry.

Who is paid. Home owners and builders buy it, and any glass works can seal panes this way, so buyers keep the gain.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Hyperbolic Solenoid: A coil apparatus that produces and shapes magnetic fields.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hyperbolic Solenoid

The Exhalted, L. Sprague de Camp · 1940

A coil apparatus that produces and shapes magnetic fields.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A coil that shapes magnetic fields is a part for laboratories and machines.

Who is paid. Laboratories and machine makers buy it, and many electrical firms can wind such a coil.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Silk-Metal: A woven cloth made partly of metal that is extremely hard to tear or cut.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Silk-Metal

The Worlds of Tomorrow, Manly Wade Wellman · 1940

A woven cloth made partly of metal that is extremely hard to tear or cut.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Cloth that is very hard to tear or cut makes better protective clothing, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Employers buy it for workers, and the weave can be copied, so established workwear and textile firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Slow Glass Rod: A clear rod in which light moves so sluggishly that it stays held inside.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Slow Glass Rod

The Exhalted, L. Sprague de Camp · 1940

A clear rod in which light moves so sluggishly that it stays held inside.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A rod that holds light inside has no use named, so I assumed it serves as a store of light or a curiosity.

Who is paid. Instrument and lighting makers might buy it, and nothing in the description stops many glass firms making it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Synthetic Flesh: Artificial skin-like material used to alter someone's appearance.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Synthetic Flesh

The Amazon Fights Again, Thornton Ayre · 1940

Artificial skin-like material used to alter someone's appearance.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A skin-like material that changes how someone looks serves actors and spies, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Stage and film firms buy it, assuming open sale and that spy services are a minor buyer, and many firms could make such a skin.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Telelubricator: Removes all friction from whatever surface or material it targets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telelubricator

The Exhalted, L. Sprague de Camp · 1940

Removes all friction from whatever surface or material it targets.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Removing all friction from a chosen surface would cut wear and wasted energy in machines everywhere.

Who is paid. Machine owners buy it, assuming it is a tool and not a weapon, and once one firm builds it established equipment makers copy and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Vacuum Wall Compartments: Walls with sealed empty gaps inside that block the passage of heat.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vacuum Wall Compartments

The Achilles Heel, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1940

Walls with sealed empty gaps inside that block the passage of heat.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Walls with sealed empty gaps keep heat in and would cut the cost of heating and cooling buildings.

Who is paid. Home owners pay for it in their walls, and the idea is simple for any builder to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Hell-Stone: An extraordinarily lovely and scarce gemstone.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hell-Stone

Star of Dreams, Jack Williamson · 1941

An extraordinarily lovely and scarce gemstone.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A rare and lovely gem is a luxury for a few.

Who is paid. Wealthy people buy it, and whoever holds the scarce source controls something others cannot get.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Instant Customized Clothing: A machine that makes a chosen garment on demand, while the customer waits.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Instant Customized Clothing

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

A machine that makes a chosen garment on demand, while the customer waits.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A chosen garment made while the customer waits would change the clothing trade's costs and waste.

Who is paid. People buy the clothes, and the machines can be copied, so clothing brands and shops with customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Black Coating: A surface layer so dark it soaks up almost every ray of light that hits it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Black Coating

Gray Lensman, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1942

A surface layer so dark it soaks up almost every ray of light that hits it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A coating that soaks up nearly all light helps telescopes, cameras and a few design uses, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Instrument makers buy it, and a coating can be studied and matched by many paint and chemical firms, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Plastifoam: Expanding foam sprayed to plug big breaches in a spacecraft hull.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plastifoam

Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942

Expanding foam sprayed to plug big breaches in a spacecraft hull.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Stopping air escaping through a hull breach is a vital repair supply for ship operators, not an industry.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy it, and a foam is easy for many chemical firms to match, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Aladur: A light material with very great pulling strength.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Aladur

Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943

A light material with very great pulling strength.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A light material of very great pulling strength would change the cost of cables, aircraft and structures.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Durasteel: An alloy that outlasts ordinary steel under wear and stress.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Durasteel

Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943

An alloy that outlasts ordinary steel under wear and stress.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An alloy that outlasts steel would cut replacement and upkeep costs in machines and structures.

Who is paid. Makers of machines and buildings buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established metal makers with furnaces and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Impervium: A substance nothing can pierce or destroy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Impervium

Clash by Night, Lawrence O'Donnell · 1943

A substance nothing can pierce or destroy.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A substance nothing can pierce or destroy would be worth an industry in armour, vaults, vessels and containment.

Who is paid. Builders of vehicles and strongrooms buy it, and nothing in the description stops a second maker: a thing being hard to cut open and study does not keep others from learning to make it, so the established materials firms collect as they do with the tough alloys.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Plastic Constructor (3D Printer): An additive fabrication machine that builds spacecraft parts layer by layer from plastic.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plastic Constructor (3D Printer)

Things Pass By, Murray Leinster · 1945

An additive fabrication machine that builds spacecraft parts layer by layer from plastic.

built in 1984, 39 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Building spacecraft parts layer by layer saves stock and tooling for one industry; it is confined to plastic parts, so it is not a make-anything machine.

Who is paid. Manufacturers buy it, and the real machines proved easy for many firms to build, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Herculoy: An exceptionally tough metal blend used in construction.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Herculoy

The Howling Bounders, Jack Vance · 1949

An exceptionally tough metal blend used in construction.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An exceptionally tough building metal would cut replacement and upkeep costs in structures.

Who is paid. Builders buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established metal makers with furnaces and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Resilian: A plant or animal fibre with the toughness of metal.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Resilian

The Howling Bounders, Jack Vance · 1949

A plant or animal fibre with the toughness of metal.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A natural fibre as tough as metal would change ropes, cloth and light structures.

Who is paid. Manufacturers buy it, and a plant or animal can be bred by others, so the big fibre and textile firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Vivo-Gel: A jelly-like substance that is partly alive.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vivo-Gel

Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949

A jelly-like substance that is partly alive.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A partly living jelly has no use named, so I assumed a minor one such as padding or dressing.

Who is paid. Firms might buy it for such uses, and a living material can be grown by many, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Weapons and warfare · 34
Illustration of Atom-Gun: A hand weapon that sprays out nuclear flame.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atom-Gun

Revolt on the Tenth World, Edmond Hamilton · 1940

A hand weapon that sprays out nuclear flame.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Assuming a soldier carries it, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Atomic Automatic: A gun that fires small self-propelled rocket rounds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atomic Automatic

Revolt on Io, Jack West · 1940

A gun that fires small self-propelled rocket rounds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is one more kind of firearm, a modest step over the guns armies already carry.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Atomic Blast Weapon: A weapon that breaks whatever it hits down completely into loose atoms.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atomic Blast Weapon

The Achilles Heel, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1940

A weapon that breaks whatever it hits down completely into loose atoms.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a weapon that destroys whatever it strikes leaves no armour, wall or hull able to protect, which would change how wars are fought.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and assuming rival makers learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Autosight Achronic Beam: A weapon aiming beam that works outside time for perfect accuracy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Autosight Achronic Beam

Hindsight, Jack Williamson · 1940

A weapon aiming beam that works outside time for perfect accuracy.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Judged as if it worked, a beam that aims a weapon perfectly is an aiming aid fitted to guns, and guided weapons already come close.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and assuming rival makers learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Conversion Gun: A beam weapon that turns a target's warmth into emitted light, chilling it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Conversion Gun

Hell Ship of Space, Frederic Arnold Kummer, Jr. · 1940

A beam weapon that turns a target's warmth into emitted light, chilling it.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Judged as if it worked, and assuming a soldier carries it, a beam that chills its target does much the same job as a gun.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and assuming rival makers learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Death-Capsule: A tiny explosive planted inside a body that can be set off from afar.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Death-Capsule

Doom Over Venus, Edmond Hamilton · 1940

A tiny explosive planted inside a body that can be set off from afar.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A bomb planted inside a person to control them is a crime, not a product anyone may buy.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electro-Automatic Pistol: A compact round handgun, small enough to carry in a pocket, fired electrically.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electro-Automatic Pistol

The Worlds of Tomorrow, Manly Wade Wellman · 1940

A compact round handgun, small enough to carry in a pocket, fired electrically.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is one more kind of firearm, a modest step over the guns armies already carry.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Paralysis Bomb: A thrown explosive device giving off rays that leave people nearby unable to move.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Paralysis Bomb

If This Goes On..., Robert Heinlein · 1940

A thrown explosive device giving off rays that leave people nearby unable to move.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a thrown device that leaves everyone nearby unable to move and unharmed does what no gun or grenade can, and police and armies everywhere would carry it.

Who is paid. Police forces and armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers could copy it once it was shown, the suppliers that already hold their contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Paralyzing Gun: A handheld weapon that knocks out anyone caught in its beam.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Paralyzing Gun

The Achilles Heel, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1940

A handheld weapon that knocks out anyone caught in its beam.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a weapon that surely stops a person at a distance without harming them does what no gun can, and police and guards everywhere would carry it in place of firearms.

Who is paid. Police forces and armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers could copy it once it was shown, the suppliers that already hold their contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Vibroblade: A combat knife whose edge vibrates rapidly to cut.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vibroblade

If This Goes On..., Robert Heinlein · 1940

A combat knife whose edge vibrates rapidly to cut.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A knife that cuts better is a small gain for the few who carry one.

Who is paid. As with other blades, a few people buy one for themselves, and assuming others can copy it once one is built, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of A-Bomb: A bomb whose blast comes from splitting heavy atomic nuclei.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

A-Bomb

Sixth Column, Anson MacDonald · 1941

A bomb whose blast comes from splitting heavy atomic nuclei.

built in 1945, 4 years after it was imagined

A large prizeA government pays; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A weapon that can end a war or prevent one is worth a great deal to the state that holds it.

Who is paid. Only governments pay for it, and only the handful of builders a state allows near the material may make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Blastick: A handheld gun that fires a burning ray.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Blastick

The Traitor, Kurt von Rachen · 1941

A handheld gun that fires a burning ray.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Assuming a soldier carries it, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Disinto: A beam that breaks matter apart into nothing.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Disinto

Robot AL-76 Goes Astray, Isaac Asimov · 1941

A beam that breaks matter apart into nothing.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a weapon that destroys whatever it strikes leaves no armour, wall or hull able to protect, which would change how wars are fought.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and assuming rival makers learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Energy Weapon: A directed-beam weapon that damages targets with concentrated energy rather than projectiles.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Energy Weapon

Seesaw, A.E. van Vogt · 1941

A directed-beam weapon that damages targets with concentrated energy rather than projectiles.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Assuming a soldier carries it, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Epileptigenic Ray: A beam that throws people into violent, uncontrollable muscle fits.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Epileptigenic Ray

Sixth Column, Anson MacDonald · 1941

A beam that throws people into violent, uncontrollable muscle fits.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Assuming the fits pass without lasting harm, a beam that drops anyone at a distance without killing does what no gun can, and police and guards everywhere would carry it.

Who is paid. Police forces and armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers could copy it once it was shown, the suppliers that already hold their contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Metal Solvent Ray Thrower: A space weapon that sprays a metal-dissolving stream at enemy hulls, like a torch.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Metal Solvent Ray Thrower

Lost Rocket, Manly Wade Wellman · 1941

A space weapon that sprays a metal-dissolving stream at enemy hulls, like a torch.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Heavy beam weapons for warships would be a major line of arms spending for any space fleet.

Who is paid. Navies pay, and the yards and arms firms that already build and equip warships would fit them and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Paralyzing Eye: An artificial eye hiding a mechanism that briefly freezes anyone it targets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Paralyzing Eye

The Best-Laid Scheme, L. Sprague de Camp · 1941

An artificial eye hiding a mechanism that briefly freezes anyone it targets.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A freezing device hidden in a false eye is the paralysing weapon made for a spy or a lone wearer, a narrow use.

Who is paid. Assuming secret services are the buyers, they pay, and once others copy the method the suppliers they already use collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Roving Bomb: A steerable explosive built for use in weightless space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Roving Bomb

Lost Rocket, Manly Wade Wellman · 1941

A steerable explosive built for use in weightless space.

built in the 1940s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Munitions that steer themselves onto a target make each shot count and are a mainstay of what modern armies buy.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and since many engineering firms can build guidance, the missile and ammunition makers that already hold supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sleep Destroying Field: A projected zone that keeps anyone inside from being able to fall asleep.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sleep Destroying Field

Biddiver, Theodore Sturgeon · 1941

A projected zone that keeps anyone inside from being able to fall asleep.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A field that stops everyone in an area from sleeping could wear down an enemy but has only that one narrow use.

Who is paid. Only an army would pay, and assuming rival makers learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Stunner: A handheld gun that knocks a target out cold without killing them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stunner

Fire-Power, S.D. Gottesman · 1941

A handheld gun that knocks a target out cold without killing them.

built in the 1970s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a weapon that surely stops a person at a distance without harming them does what no gun can, and police and guards everywhere would carry it in place of firearms.

Who is paid. Police forces and armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers could copy it once it was shown, the suppliers that already hold their contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Directrix Z9M9Z: A command vessel that coordinates the movements of an enormous war fleet in space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Directrix Z9M9Z

Gray Lensman, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1942

A command vessel that coordinates the movements of an enormous war fleet in space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Assuming wars are fought in space, warships for it would be an industry of their own.

Who is paid. Only governments field war fleets, and the few yards already able to build large spacecraft would win the orders.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Electric Wall: A barrier made of electrical energy that blocks passage like a solid wall.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electric Wall

The World With A Thousand Moons, Edmond Hamilton · 1942

A barrier made of electrical energy that blocks passage like a solid wall.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a barrier that stops attacks would change how ships, bases and cities are defended.

Who is paid. Assuming it is bought for defence in war, governments pay, and assuming rivals learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Thermodyne Heat Ray: Concentrates heat into a directed beam that can burn or harm a target.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Thermodyne Heat Ray

A Brand New World, Ray Cummings · 1942

Concentrates heat into a directed beam that can burn or harm a target.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Assuming a soldier carries it, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Flame Barrier: A protective barrier of energy that blocks attacks.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flame Barrier

The Storm, A.E. van Vogt · 1943

A protective barrier of energy that blocks attacks.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a barrier that stops attacks would change how ships, bases and cities are defended.

Who is paid. Assuming it is bought for defence in war, governments pay, and assuming rivals learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Force Pencil: A wrist-mounted device that projects a beam of pushing force.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Force Pencil

Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943

A wrist-mounted device that projects a beam of pushing force.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Judged as if it worked, and assuming a soldier carries it, a beam that shoves or strikes does much the same job as a gun.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and assuming rival makers learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Inviolability Field: A protective energy barrier woven into a garment to guard its wearer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Inviolability Field

Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943

A protective energy barrier woven into a garment to guard its wearer.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a barrier that stops attacks would change how soldiers, ships and cities are defended, even when it guards one wearer.

Who is paid. Assuming it is bought for defence in war, governments pay, and assuming rivals learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Pain Canopy: A hood that stimulates nerves directly to inflict pain during questioning.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pain Canopy

Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943

A hood that stimulates nerves directly to inflict pain during questioning.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It exists only to inflict suffering, and no one may lawfully buy or use such a thing.

Who is paid. Torture devices are outlawed for everyone, governments included, so nothing is sold and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Rod of Wrath: A blade formed from a beam of light used as a hand weapon.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rod of Wrath

Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943

A blade formed from a beam of light used as a hand weapon.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Judged as if it worked, a blade of light loses to a gun as a weapon, so it is a prized object for a few buyers.

Who is paid. As with other blades, a few people buy one for themselves, and assuming others can copy it once one is built, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Battle Integrator: A command display that shows a battle between spacecraft as a solid scene commanders can follow.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Battle Integrator

The Bureaucrat, Malcolm Jameson · 1944

A command display that shows a battle between spacecraft as a solid scene commanders can follow.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It helps commanders follow a fight but is one instrument among many on a warship.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Energy Screen: An invisible protective barrier made of energy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Energy Screen

Far Centaurus, A.E. van Vogt · 1944

An invisible protective barrier made of energy.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a barrier that stops attacks would change how ships, bases and cities are defended.

Who is paid. Assuming it is bought for defence in war, governments pay, and assuming rivals learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Rust Ray Pistol: A handgun whose beam turns hard iron and steel brittle and crumbling.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rust Ray Pistol

Gambler’s Asteroid, Manly Wade Wellman · 1944

A handgun whose beam turns hard iron and steel brittle and crumbling.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a beam that makes steel crumble would leave steel ships, vehicles and guns useless, which is more than a handheld beam that only kills.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and assuming rival makers learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Meteor Blasters: Beams mounted on a spacecraft that clear rocks and debris out of its flight path.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Meteor Blasters

First Contact, Murray Leinster · 1945

Beams mounted on a spacecraft that clear rocks and debris out of its flight path.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Beams that clear rocks from a ship's path are a safety fitting, needed only once many ships fly fast through space.

Who is paid. Assuming most ships are run by carriers, they pay, and the shipbuilders who fit out the craft would supply the beams and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Planet-Smasher: A fictional weapon capable of wrecking a whole world, used as a threat in an interplanetary conflict.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Planet-Smasher

Propagandist, Murray Leinster · 1947

A fictional weapon capable of wrecking a whole world, used as a threat in an interplanetary conflict.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A weapon that can wreck a region or a world is worth a great deal to a state as a threat that keeps others from attacking, though it feeds or houses no one.

Who is paid. Only governments pay for it, and as with nuclear arms only the handful of builders a state allows near such a weapon may make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Stationary Automatic Blaster: A fixed automated gun post that guards an area in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stationary Automatic Blaster

Red Planet, Robert Heinlein · 1949

A fixed automated gun post that guards an area in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A gun that guards a spot by itself saves some sentries but fills a narrow job within an army's kit.

Who is paid. Armies and border forces pay, and it is easy to copy from known parts, so the arms makers already supplying them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Surveillance, identity and control · 10
Illustration of Ferretscope: A handheld detector that finds hidden microphones and bugs in a room.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ferretscope

If This Goes On..., Robert Heinlein · 1940

A handheld detector that finds hidden microphones and bugs in a room.

built in the 1950s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Finding hidden recorders matters only to the few people and firms who fear being spied on.

Who is paid. Firms and officials guarding secrets buy it, and many makers can build such a detector so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Planetary ID Card: A single identity credential issued to everyone living across the planets and moons of our solar system.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Planetary ID Card

Doom Over Venus, Edmond Hamilton · 1940

A single identity credential issued to everyone living across the planets and moons of our solar system.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A single identity card for everyone is useful to the authority that issues it but is only a card.

Who is paid. Whoever issues the credential pays, assumed here to be a state, and the firms that already make official papers and registers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Alterable License Number: A car plate the driver can change from the seat to show a different registration.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Alterable License Number

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

A car plate the driver can change from the seat to show a different registration.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A plate that can show a false registration is a tool for moving unseen, useful to a few agents and forbidden to ordinary drivers.

Who is paid. Assuming a spy or police service is the lawful buyer, it pays, and since any workshop could build it the firms already trusted with secret supply work collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Automatic Speeding Fine: Measures a car's speed, logs the offence and sends out the penalty notice without human involvement.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automatic Speeding Fine

Old Fireball, Nat Schachner · 1941

Measures a car's speed, logs the offence and sends out the penalty notice without human involvement.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Catching speeders without an officer saves some police labour but is a narrow tool.

Who is paid. Road authorities pay, and the cameras are easy to copy, so firms that already hold traffic supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Traffic Control Camera: Roadside cameras that automatically read and record the number plates of passing vehicles.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Traffic Control Camera

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

Roadside cameras that automatically read and record the number plates of passing vehicles.

built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Reading number plates automatically helps enforce traffic rules, a narrow public task.

Who is paid. Road and police authorities pay, and the firms that already supply roadside equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Visigraphic Crowd Emotional Record: Charts the collective moods of a gathered audience as a visual trace.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Visigraphic Crowd Emotional Record

Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943

Charts the collective moods of a gathered audience as a visual trace.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Charting the mood of an audience helps those who stage shows, speeches and meetings, which is a niche.

Who is paid. The description says an audience and not a crowd to be policed, so showmen and campaigners are assumed to pay, and such an instrument is easy for many makers to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Electronic Locator: A gadget that pinpoints where a particular individual is.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electronic Locator

World of Null-A, A.E. van Vogt · 1945

A gadget that pinpoints where a particular individual is.

built in 1973, 28 years after it was imagined

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Finding any chosen person wherever they are would change police work, rescue and manhunts enough to be an industry.

Who is paid. Police and security services pay, and once shown to work others could build it, so existing police suppliers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Memory Hole: A wall slot that sends inconvenient papers off to be burned.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Memory Hole

1984 (Nineteen Eighty-Four), George Orwell · 1948

A wall slot that sends inconvenient papers off to be burned.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A chute that sends papers to a furnace is a minor office fitting.

Who is paid. A government office pays, and any builder could fit a chute and furnace so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Rewriting History: Systematically altering archives so the past always matches what the rulers now claim.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rewriting History

1984 (Nineteen Eighty-Four), George Orwell · 1948

Systematically altering archives so the past always matches what the rulers now claim.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping every archive in step with what the rulers now say is a records task for the state that orders it, a narrow gain to those rulers and not a new industry.

Who is paid. The state pays, whether its own clerks do the work or a supplier does, just as it pays for the serial-number scheme, and systems for altering records are easy to build, so the firms that already run government records collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Telescreen: A two-way screen in every home that broadcasts to residents while watching them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telescreen

1984 (Nineteen Eighty-Four), George Orwell · 1948

A two-way screen in every home that broadcasts to residents while watching them.

built in the 1940s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A watching screen in every home gives a state sight of its whole people, at the people's cost.

Who is paid. The state pays to fit every home, and screens with cameras are easy to make, so the firms already making them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Food, agriculture and environment · 7
Illustration of Hydroponics: Raising crops in nutrient-rich water instead of earth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hydroponics

The Hydroponic Monster, Maria Moravsky · 1940

Raising crops in nutrient-rich water instead of earth.

already existed before the story (the 1930s)

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Growing crops in water lets food be raised without good soil, which is an industry of its own even though it never replaced fields.

Who is paid. Households buy the food grown this way, and the method is well known and needs no good land, so any grower can use it and no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mind Control Genetically Modified Food: Crops altered at the genetic level to yield chosen blends of taste.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mind Control Genetically Modified Food

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

Crops altered at the genetic level to yield chosen blends of taste.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Crops bred for chosen blends of taste are a pleasant variety, not a change in the cost of food.

Who is paid. Growers buy the plants, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the seed houses and nurseries that already hold stock, land and sales channels collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Weather Integrator: Technology that steers and schedules the weather over wide areas.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Weather Integrator

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

Technology that steers and schedules the weather over wide areas.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Choosing the weather over wide areas would change farming, flood and drought for most people.

Who is paid. Nobody can be charged one by one for weather, so governments pay, and I assumed the power source it needs is hard enough that the first builder holds it alone.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Martian Sawgrass: A bred plant variety grown aboard orbiting habitats to replenish breathable air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Martian Sawgrass

QRM - Interplanetary, George O. Smith · 1942

A bred plant variety grown aboard orbiting habitats to replenish breathable air.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Plants that keep the air fresh serve only the few people living in sealed habitats.

Who is paid. Whoever runs the habitat pays, assumed to be a government, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the growers and suppliers that already serve such habitats collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gum Tree: A giant plant that strikes out at others through its own will.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gum Tree

Symbiotica, Eric Frank Russell · 1943

A giant plant that strikes out at others through its own will.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a hostile plant in a story and not something anyone could build or sell.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller gains.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Microwavable Food: Packaged meals designed to be cooked quickly in a radio-wave oven.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Microwavable Food

Space Cadet, Robert Heinlein · 1948

Packaged meals designed to be cooked quickly in a radio-wave oven.

built in the 1970s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Ready meals cooked in minutes changed how many households eat and made an industry of their own.

Who is paid. Households buy them, and any food firm can pack a meal, so the brands with factories and freezer space in the shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Desert Cabbage: A huge Martian plant that keeps itself warm against the frigid surface.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Desert Cabbage

Red Planet, Robert Heinlein · 1949

A huge Martian plant that keeps itself warm against the frigid surface.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a plant in a story and not something anyone could build or sell.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller gains.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Home and everyday life · 28
Illustration of Air Blast: A personal blower that dries you with a stream of air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Air Blast

Coventry, Robert Heinlein · 1940

A personal blower that dries you with a stream of air.

already existed before the story (the 1900s)

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Drying off with warm air instead of a towel is a convenience.

Who is paid. People buy it for the bathroom, and a blower is simple for any appliance maker to build.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Asbestos Sunshade: A heat-resistant screen carried or worn to block harsh sunlight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Asbestos Sunshade

The Achilles Heel, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1940

A heat-resistant screen carried or worn to block harsh sunlight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A shade against harsh sun is a simple comfort.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and a heat-proof screen is easy for anyone to make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Floating Villa: A man-made floating island big enough to hold a private residence and grounds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Floating Villa

Doom Over Venus, Edmond Hamilton · 1940

A man-made floating island big enough to hold a private residence and grounds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A private island that floats is a luxury for the very rich.

Who is paid. Rich families buy it, and the shipyards and marine builders who already make large floating structures collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Knockdown Cabin: A rigid-walled portable hut that can be put up fast and taken down again.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Knockdown Cabin

Coventry, Robert Heinlein · 1940

A rigid-walled portable hut that can be put up fast and taken down again.

already existed before the story (the 1900s)

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A hut that goes up and comes down quickly suits campers and work crews.

Who is paid. I assumed campers and travellers buy it, and folding walls are easy for many makers to produce.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Lighting Panel: A broad flat light source that glows without giving off warmth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lighting Panel

Let There Be Light, Lyle Monroe · 1940

A broad flat light source that glows without giving off warmth.

built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A flat panel that glows without wasted heat cuts the power bill for lighting everywhere, which changes a whole industry's costs.

Who is paid. Homes and firms both buy lighting, and once the method is known many makers can produce the panels, so buyers keep nearly all the saving.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Radium-Action Lighter: A pocket igniter for cigarettes and pipes powered by a radioactive source.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Radium-Action Lighter

The Worlds of Tomorrow, Manly Wade Wellman · 1940

A pocket igniter for cigarettes and pipes powered by a radioactive source.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lighter that never needs fuel is a small convenience for smokers.

Who is paid. Smokers buy it, and I assumed the radioactive source is as freely sold as the lighter itself, so any maker of small gadgets could copy it and no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Refreshing Chamber: An automated washing room that takes over every job of the ordinary bathroom.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Refreshing Chamber

Coventry, Robert Heinlein · 1940

An automated washing room that takes over every job of the ordinary bathroom.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A room that does every bathroom job by itself is a comfort, since people already wash without it.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and it is easy to copy, so the firms that already make bathroom fittings collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Telechronometer: A watch that keeps itself set by signals from a distant clock.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telechronometer

Blowups Happen, Robert Heinlein · 1940

A watch that keeps itself set by signals from a distant clock.

built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A watch that sets itself from a distant clock saves a small task.

Who is paid. Households buy it and any watch maker can build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Atmospherics Switchboard: A control panel that fills each guest room with the air mix of that guest's home world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atmospherics Switchboard

Lie on the Beam, John Victor Peterson · 1941

A control panel that fills each guest room with the air mix of that guest's home world.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Matching room air to each guest's home world serves only hotels with visitors from other worlds.

Who is paid. Hotels buy it, and the firms that already fit heating and air systems into buildings could add it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Automated Hotel Reservation: A hotel run without front-desk staff where guests book and check in themselves.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automated Hotel Reservation

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

A hotel run without front-desk staff where guests book and check in themselves.

built in the 1990s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Doing without a front desk saves a hotel a modest part of its costs.

Who is paid. Hotels buy the booking system, and many firms can write such a system, so the saving passes to hotels and guests.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Fresher: An all-in-one hygiene booth meant to replace the shower, basin and toilet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fresher

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

An all-in-one hygiene booth meant to replace the shower, basin and toilet.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Putting the shower, basin and toilet in a single booth saves space but does what bathrooms already do.

Who is paid. Home owners buy it, and it is easy to copy, so the makers and fitters of bathroom fixtures collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Self-Lighting Cigarette: A cigarette with its own striking tip, so it needs no separate match.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Self-Lighting Cigarette

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

A cigarette with its own striking tip, so it needs no separate match.

built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cigarette with its own striking tip saves a match, which is a small convenience.

Who is paid. Smokers buy it, and it is easy to copy, so the tobacco firms that already sell cigarettes collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Capillotomer: A robot that shaves a person's face automatically without a human barber.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Capillotomer

Beyond This Horizon, Robert Heinlein · 1942

A robot that shaves a person's face automatically without a human barber.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An automatic shave saves a little time each morning.

Who is paid. I assumed a home device, so people buy it for themselves, and other appliance makers could copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Radiation Garment: Everyday clothing that shields ordinary people from some harmful radiation.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Radiation Garment

Waldo, Robert Heinlein · 1942

Everyday clothing that shields ordinary people from some harmful radiation.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Clothing that blocks some harmful radiation matters only where such radiation is common.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and once the cloth exists any clothing maker could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Zero-G Ashtray: A tray that traps ash and smoke where there is no gravity to hold them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Zero-G Ashtray

Waldo, Robert Heinlein · 1942

A tray that traps ash and smoke where there is no gravity to hold them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An ashtray that works without gravity serves the few who smoke in space.

Who is paid. Those smokers buy it and any maker can build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Adjustable House: A home whose flexible walls and frame can be reshaped to change its layout.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Adjustable House

Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943

A home whose flexible walls and frame can be reshaped to change its layout.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A home whose layout can be changed spares some rebuilding, but it is a feature of a house and does not make housing cheaper or more plentiful.

Who is paid. Home owners pay, and once the flexible material is known the builders and developers who already hold land and customers would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Airpolo: A sport where players ride small flying machines to strike floating balls in the air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Airpolo

Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943

A sport where players ride small flying machines to strike floating balls in the air.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A flying ball game is an entertainment for players and watchers, not a need.

Who is paid. Players and spectators pay, and nobody can own a sport, so any club or maker of small flying machines can take part.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Coldlight: Lighting that gives off brightness while producing almost no warmth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Coldlight

Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943

Lighting that gives off brightness while producing almost no warmth.

built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Light with almost no wasted heat cuts the power bill for lighting everywhere, which changes a whole industry's costs.

Who is paid. Homes and firms both buy lamps, and once the method is known many makers can produce them, so buyers keep nearly all the saving.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Plastibulb: A soft plastic pouch you squeeze to drink from.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plastibulb

The Proud Robot, Lewis Padgett · 1943

A soft plastic pouch you squeeze to drink from.

built in the 1940s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A squeezable pouch to drink from is a plain drinking vessel.

Who is paid. I assumed people buy it for themselves as they would a cup, and anyone can make a pouch, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Pneumo-Slacks: Inflatable trousers that pad out the wearer's legs to seem more muscular.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pneumo-Slacks

The Proud Robot, Lewis Padgett · 1943

Inflatable trousers that pad out the wearer's legs to seem more muscular.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Trousers that pad the legs to look muscular are a vanity item.

Who is paid. Households buy them and any clothing maker can copy them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Lawn Mower: A machine that cuts the grass on its own without a person pushing it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Lawn Mower

City, Clifford Simak · 1944

A machine that cuts the grass on its own without a person pushing it.

built in 1995, 51 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Cutting the grass without a person saves a chore for those with lawns.

Who is paid. Households buy it and many firms can make a small garden machine, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Self-Opening Box: A container whose lid opens by itself without anyone touching it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Self-Opening Box

Child's Play, William Tenn · 1947

A container whose lid opens by itself without anyone touching it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lid that opens by itself is a minor convenience.

Who is paid. Households buy it and anyone can make such a box, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of High-Frequency Oven: An oven that heats food quickly with radio waves.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

High-Frequency Oven

Space Cadet, Robert Heinlein · 1948

An oven that heats food quickly with radio waves.

built in the 1940s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Heating food in moments changed how kitchens work and became an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and the method soon became easy to copy, so the appliance makers with factories and shop space collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Fluor Strips: Slim elongated light fixtures.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fluor Strips

Sacred Martian Pig (Idris' Pig), Margaret St. Clair · 1949

Slim elongated light fixtures.

already existed before the story (the 1930s)

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The description gives only the shape, so I assumed these are the long cool-running tube lights the name suggests, which cut the power bill for lighting shops, offices and homes.

Who is paid. Homes and firms both buy them, and many makers can produce them, so buyers keep nearly all the saving.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Fresher: An automated cubicle that washes, grooms and tidies a person.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fresher

Gulf, Robert Heinlein · 1949

An automated cubicle that washes, grooms and tidies a person.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A booth that washes and grooms you saves some time, but it does what bathrooms already do.

Who is paid. Home owners buy it, and it is easy to copy, so the makers and fitters of bathroom fixtures collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Painted Respirator Masks: Breathing masks that children personalise with their own painted designs.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Painted Respirator Masks

Red Planet, Robert Heinlein · 1949

Breathing masks that children personalise with their own painted designs.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Decorating a breathing mask is a small pleasure added to gear people already own.

Who is paid. Households buy the masks and paint, and any maker can supply them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Self-Igniter: A cigarette that lights itself when you start smoking it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Self-Igniter

The Howling Bounders, Jack Vance · 1949

A cigarette that lights itself when you start smoking it.

already existed before the story (the 1920s)

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cigarette that lights itself saves a match, which is a small convenience.

Who is paid. Smokers buy it, and it is easy to copy, so the tobacco firms that already sell cigarettes collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Shari: A mesh garment that doubles as a carrying net and other tools.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Shari

Sacred Martian Pig (Idris' Pig), Margaret St. Clair · 1949

A mesh garment that doubles as a carrying net and other tools.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A mesh garment that also serves as a carrying net is a handy piece of clothing.

Who is paid. Households buy it and anyone can make mesh clothing, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Exotic physics · 26
Illustration of Atom-Shifter: Makes solid matter yield so a person can walk through it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atom-Shifter

The Worlds of Tomorrow, Manly Wade Wellman · 1940

Makes solid matter yield so a person can walk through it.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Walking through walls would change rescue, mining and spying, and would undo most locks.

Who is paid. I assume the public would be barred from it, so police, armies and rescue services pay and their usual suppliers build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Barrier (Force Field): An invisible energy fence that nothing can pass through.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Barrier (Force Field)

Coventry, Robert Heinlein · 1940

An invisible energy fence that nothing can pass through.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A wall nothing can pass would reshape defence, prisons and the guarding of valuable places.

Who is paid. Armies and police would be the main buyers, and with the method copyable among arms makers, the firms already holding such contracts would supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Gravitational Disks: Discs worn to hold a person firmly to the ground where gravity is weak.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gravitational Disks

Revolt on Io, Jack West · 1940

Discs worn to hold a person firmly to the ground where gravity is weak.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Unlike the generators, these only hold one person's feet down, a niche piece of crew kit.

Who is paid. Ship and mine operators would issue them to workers, and many makers could copy them.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Tesseract House: A dwelling laid out in the form of a shape with four spatial dimensions.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tesseract House

#NAME?, Robert Heinlein · 1940

A dwelling laid out in the form of a shape with four spatial dimensions.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A house with far more rooms than its plot allows would cut the cost of housing where land is scarce.

Who is paid. Households would buy it, and since the design could be copied the builders and land owners already in the trade collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Antigrav Boots: Footwear that cancels the wearer's weight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Antigrav Boots

The Day We Celebrate, Nelson S. Bond · 1941

Footwear that cancels the wearer's weight.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Personal flight without wings or fuel would be a new kind of everyday travel, though a narrower use than lifting freight and vehicles.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would buy it as they buy bicycles, and once one firm made it many could, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Momentum Screen: A shield that spares a crew the crushing forces felt during launch.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Momentum Screen

Completely Automatic, Theodore Sturgeon · 1941

A shield that spares a crew the crushing forces felt during launch.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Removing the crush of hard acceleration would make launches safer and allow far quicker journeys, assuming it works beyond launch as other such screens do.

Who is paid. Vehicle and ship builders would fit it, and since the method could be copied, those established builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Pseudogravity: Weight felt aboard a craft that is made by engineering rather than a big body's pull.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pseudogravity

Common Sense, Robert Heinlein · 1941

Weight felt aboard a craft that is made by engineering rather than a big body's pull.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Normal weight on ships and stations would make living and working in space healthy and practical, which is an industry's worth but only for those off Earth.

Who is paid. Ship and station builders would fit it as standard, and with nothing to stop copying, those established builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Psychophone: A device that lets a person tune their thoughts to see a coming reality.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Psychophone

The Mechanical Mice, Maurice G. Hugi · 1941

A device that lets a person tune their thoughts to see a coming reality.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Seeing what is coming would change how trade, insurance and planning are done, though the edge shrinks once many can look.

Who is paid. Firms and advisers would buy it first, and once many makers can build the viewer no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Time Line: The chain of happenings running up to the present instant and onward beyond it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Time Line

Time Wants A Skeleton, Ross Rocklynne · 1941

The chain of happenings running up to the present instant and onward beyond it.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. The chain of events through the present is a way of describing time, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Fire Storm: The violent flare when drifting antimatter grains strike a ship made of normal matter.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fire Storm

Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942

The violent flare when drifting antimatter grains strike a ship made of normal matter.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A flare that destroys ships is a hazard.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold; it is an accident to be avoided.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Stasis Field: An enclosure inside which time halts completely, freezing whatever it holds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stasis Field

Beyond This Horizon, Robert Heinlein · 1942

An enclosure inside which time halts completely, freezing whatever it holds.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Stopping time inside a box would end spoilage and hold the badly hurt until help comes, assuming a container of household or shop size.

Who is paid. Homes, shops and hospitals would buy it like a refrigerator, and since it could be copied the appliance makers with factories and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Time Dredge: A machine that reaches into earlier eras and hauls physical objects back.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Time Dredge

Time Dredge, Robert Arthur · 1942

A machine that reaches into earlier eras and hauls physical objects back.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Hauling real objects out of earlier eras reaches the past as the time machines do, and would be worth an industry in salvage, study and lost materials.

Who is paid. I assume a state would keep for itself a machine that reaches into the past and could so alter history, so a government pays and its established contractors build it, since others could copy it once shown.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Zeroentropy Spray: A mist that strips nearly all disorder from an object, chilling it almost to the coldest possible point.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Zeroentropy Spray

Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943

A mist that strips nearly all disorder from an object, chilling it almost to the coldest possible point.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Deep cold from a spray would cut the cost of freezing, of strong magnets and of other work that needs extreme cold.

Who is paid. Factories and laboratories would buy it, and since it could be copied the chemical firms with plants and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gravitics: Engineering that controls or manipulates gravity itself, for propulsion, lifting or other practical uses.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gravitics

Tricky Tonnage, Malcolm Jameson · 1944

Engineering that controls or manipulates gravity itself, for propulsion, lifting or other practical uses.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Cancelling weight at will would cut the cost of lifting, carrying and launching, which changes transport and building more than it changes how most people live.

Who is paid. Carriers, builders and launch firms would pay, and since the trick could be copied once shown, the firms that already build vehicles and craft would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Cosmoquake: A natural surge of gravitational waves that sweeps through the solar system and shakes what it passes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cosmoquake

Things Pass By, Murray Leinster · 1945

A natural surge of gravitational waves that sweeps through the solar system and shakes what it passes.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A natural disaster is a hazard, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold; it is an event that happens to people.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Matter Duplicator: A machine that produces an exact replica of any physical object placed in it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Matter Duplicator

Pandora's Millions, George O. Smith · 1945

A machine that produces an exact replica of any physical object placed in it.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Copying any object at will would make most goods nearly free for most people.

Who is paid. Assuming a home-sized machine, households would buy it, and since the first machine can copy itself no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Overdrive: An engine that lets a ship outrun light itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Overdrive

First Contact, Murray Leinster · 1945

An engine that lets a ship outrun light itself.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Ships that outrun light would open other stars to trade and settlement, an industry of its own, though most people would never ride one.

Who is paid. Shipping lines and explorers would buy the engines, and once the trick is known any shipyard could fit it, so the established ship builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pocket Universe: An artificially made region of space sealed off from the ordinary universe around it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pocket Universe

Pocket Universes, Murray Leinster · 1946

An artificially made region of space sealed off from the ordinary universe around it.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A region sealed off from the rest of space would be prized as a hiding place and a vault, assuming that is its use.

Who is paid. Governments would pay for secure hidden space, and the firms that already hold defence contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gravitic Generator: A machine that creates gravity on demand without needing a large mass or spin.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gravitic Generator

Meddler's Moon, George O. Smith · 1947

A machine that creates gravity on demand without needing a large mass or spin.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Normal weight on ships and stations would make living and working in space healthy and practical, which is an industry's worth but only for those off Earth.

Who is paid. Ship and station builders would fit it as standard, and with nothing to stop copying, those established builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Hedgerly Effect: A physical principle that lets engineers make gravity without large masses.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hedgerly Effect

Meddler's Moon, George O. Smith · 1947

A physical principle that lets engineers make gravity without large masses.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Normal weight on ships and stations would make living and working in space healthy and practical, which is an industry's worth but only for those off Earth.

Who is paid. Ship and station builders would fit it as standard, and with nothing to stop copying, those established builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space-Split: Opening a rift in space to reach other dimensions.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space-Split

The Star of Life, Edmond Hamilton · 1947

Opening a rift in space to reach other dimensions.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A way into another world could open new lands and materials, though what lies beyond is unknown.

Who is paid. I assume it would be run like a space programme, with a government paying its usual contractors to build and guard it, since others could copy it once shown.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Wango Wave: A burst of energy released when a ship jumps into or out of faster-than-light travel.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wango Wave

Propagandist, Murray Leinster · 1947

A burst of energy released when a ship jumps into or out of faster-than-light travel.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A burst of energy from a ship's jump is a side effect, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Bolt Anti-Grav: A ring-shaped energy discharge that cancels gravity for whatever sits inside it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bolt Anti-Grav

Sacred Martian Pig (Idris' Pig), Margaret St. Clair · 1949

A ring-shaped energy discharge that cancels gravity for whatever sits inside it.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Cancelling weight at will would cut the cost of lifting, carrying and launching, which changes transport and building more than it changes how most people live.

Who is paid. Carriers, builders and launch firms would pay, and since the trick could be copied once shown, the firms that already build vehicles and craft would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Repulsor: A field that stops faster-than-light engines from working nearby.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Repulsor

What Mad Universe, Frederic Brown · 1949

A field that stops faster-than-light engines from working nearby.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A field that stops star engines nearby would be the main defence of any world in an age of such ships.

Who is paid. Governments would pay for it, and the firms that already hold defence contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Spacewarp Drive: An engine that bends space to travel faster than light.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spacewarp Drive

What Mad Universe, Frederic Brown · 1949

An engine that bends space to travel faster than light.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Ships that outrun light would open other stars to trade and settlement, an industry of its own, though most people would never ride one.

Who is paid. Shipping lines and explorers would buy the engines, and once the trick is known any shipyard could fit it, so the established ship builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Synthetigrav: Catch-all name for gravity fields made by machines.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Synthetigrav

Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949

Catch-all name for gravity fields made by machines.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Normal weight on ships and stations would make living and working in space healthy and practical, which is an industry's worth but only for those off Earth.

Who is paid. Ship and station builders would fit it as standard, and with nothing to stop copying, those established builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Society and economy · 18
Illustration of Synthetic Personality: A made-up identity given legal standing as though it were a real individual.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Synthetic Personality

If This Goes On..., Robert Heinlein · 1940

A made-up identity given legal standing as though it were a real individual.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A made-up person recognised in law is a legal device, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Anti-Robot Propaganda: Campaigns by people stirring up opposition to machines that think.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Anti-Robot Propaganda

Liar, Isaac Asimov · 1941

Campaigns by people stirring up opposition to machines that think.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A campaign against thinking machines is an event in society, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Asteroid Claim Law: Legal procedure for staking ownership over a small space rock.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Asteroid Claim Law

Jurisdiction, Nat Schachner · 1941

Legal procedure for staking ownership over a small space rock.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Permits, papers and traffic rules for space travel are set by governments, not sold as a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Interplanetary Clearance: Official paperwork and permits a craft must clear before leaving crowded launch ports.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Interplanetary Clearance

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

Official paperwork and permits a craft must clear before leaving crowded launch ports.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Permits, papers and traffic rules for space travel are set by governments, not sold as a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Interplanetary Union Of Spacemen: A labour organisation representing people who work off Earth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Interplanetary Union Of Spacemen

Old Fireball, Nat Schachner · 1941

A labour organisation representing people who work off Earth.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A labour union is an organisation of workers, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Psycho-History: Using the science of the mind to analyse records of past events and forecast social trends.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Psycho-History

Beyond All Weapons, Eric Frank Russell · 1941

Using the science of the mind to analyse records of past events and forecast social trends.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Reliable forecasts of where a whole society is heading would be worth a great deal to those who govern.

Who is paid. Governments pay, and I assumed the method and its records stay in the hands of those who worked it out, so others cannot copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Lawyer (Sky-Lawyer): An attorney who specialises in the law of outer space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Lawyer (Sky-Lawyer)

Jurisdiction, Nat Schachner · 1941

An attorney who specialises in the law of outer space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Advice on the law of space is a niche within the law.

Who is paid. Firms working in space pay, and any trained lawyer can offer it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Visible Halo

Sixth Column, Anson MacDonald · 1941

A lighting effect that makes a preacher appear to glow with holiness.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A glow around a preacher is a stage effect.

Who is paid. Churches pay, which I count as businesses, and any lighting maker can supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Alien Self-Government: Principles guaranteeing that intelligent beings from other worlds may rule themselves freely.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Alien Self-Government

Co-Operate or Else, A.E. van Vogt · 1942

Principles guaranteeing that intelligent beings from other worlds may rule themselves freely.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A rule about how to treat other worlds and their peoples is law or guidance, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Asterite: Someone born and raised in settlements scattered across the asteroid belt.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Asterite

Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942

Someone born and raised in settlements scattered across the asteroid belt.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Control Natural: A citizen deliberately left with inherited genes untouched, serving as a baseline in an edited society.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Control Natural

Beyond This Horizon, Robert Heinlein · 1942

A citizen deliberately left with inherited genes untouched, serving as a baseline in an edited society.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Groundhog: Slang for someone who lives and works on the ground rather than in orbit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Groundhog

Waldo, Robert Heinlein · 1942

Slang for someone who lives and works on the ground rather than in orbit.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Royalties For Machine Learning Subjects: A scheme paying people ongoing fees when robots learn skills by copying their recorded behaviour.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Royalties For Machine Learning Subjects

Q.U.R., Anthony Boucher · 1943

A scheme paying people ongoing fees when robots learn skills by copying their recorded behaviour.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A scheme of fees for people whose skills are copied is a rule about pay, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Treatment of Extramundane Aborigines: Legal rules governing how visitors must deal with native peoples on other planets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Treatment of Extramundane Aborigines

Symbiotica, Eric Frank Russell · 1943

Legal rules governing how visitors must deal with native peoples on other planets.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A rule about how to treat other worlds and their peoples is law or guidance, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Relations with Extraterrestrial Life: Official guidance telling people how to conduct themselves if they meet beings from other worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Relations with Extraterrestrial Life

Ogre, Clifford Simak · 1944

Official guidance telling people how to conduct themselves if they meet beings from other worlds.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A rule about how to treat other worlds and their peoples is law or guidance, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Crimestop: A learned reflex of cutting off any forbidden line of thought before it forms.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Crimestop

1984 (Nineteen Eighty-Four), George Orwell · 1948

A learned reflex of cutting off any forbidden line of thought before it forms.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A trained habit of thought is a skill or a harm of the mind, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Doublethink: A trained habit of holding two opposing beliefs at once and accepting both.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Doublethink

1984 (Nineteen Eighty-Four), George Orwell · 1948

A trained habit of holding two opposing beliefs at once and accepting both.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A trained habit of thought is a skill or a harm of the mind, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Three Generation Work (Century Piece): A single artwork made over a hundred years by grandparent, parent and child artists in turn.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Three Generation Work (Century Piece)

The Sub-Standard Sardines, Jack Vance · 1949

A single artwork made over a hundred years by grandparent, parent and child artists in turn.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. One artwork made over a century is a rare luxury.

Who is paid. Collectors pay, and only the family that spent three lifetimes on it can offer it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Ideas from Technovelgy: Science Fiction Timeline of Inventions (Bill Christensen) (archived copy), as compiled in Not Boring: Sci-Fi Idea Bank (Packy McCormick); names, works, authors and years are theirs and every description is this site's rewording. Categories, arrival decades and profit are judged by AI models, not people. Method