The technologies stories first imagined in this decade, by kind, with whether each has been built since and who would keep the profit.
By kind of technology
Space travel and habitats · 6
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cosmoline (Warm Sleep)
War Dogs, Greg Bear · 2014
A gel that keeps space travellers in suspended dormancy while repairing their bodies.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Suspending and preserving the body would make very long voyages possible and, assumed here, would matter to medicine too.
Who is paid. Carriers and hospitals would pay, and nothing in the description stops others making it once it is shown to work, so the firms that already supply ships and hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Oxygen Fountain
War Dogs, Greg Bear · 2014
A compact plant that produces breathable air from resources on another planet.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Making breathable air from what another planet offers is essential to a camp there, but it is a piece of life support and not an industry of its own.
Who is paid. No user is named, so it is assumed that expedition firms buy it like other working gear, and established makers of life support could all build it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Puff (Puff Balls)
War Dogs, Greg Bear · 2014
Cushioning material that slows soldiers landing on another planet from high speed.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Cushioning for troops landing at speed serves only armed forces.
Who is paid. The armed forces pay, and the contractors that already supply their landing gear would make it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Skintight
War Dogs, Greg Bear · 2014
A close-fitting pressure garment letting people work in thin planetary atmospheres.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A suit that keeps a person alive in vacuum or thin air is vital to its wearer but serves only the few who work in space.
Who is paid. Space operators buy suits for their crews, and the few firms that already make such gear supply them since the design can be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Timeout
War Dogs, Greg Bear · 2014
The stretch of a soldier's life spent dormant while travelling between worlds.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a word for time spent asleep in transit, not a product; the sleep itself is judged elsewhere.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Centipede
Killing Titan, Greg Bear · 2015
A segmented vehicle made to crawl across icy, slushy lakes on a distant moon.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A vehicle for crossing another world serves a few expeditions, a niche.
Who is paid. No user is named, so it is assumed that firms working on other worlds buy it like other working gear, and established vehicle builders could all make it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Computing, AI and virtual worlds · 3
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Alien Trojan
Out of the Dark, David Webber · 2010
Harmful software of extraterrestrial origin that infiltrates human computer systems in the story.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Judged as a working weapon rather than as the harm it does, software that damages an enemy's computers is a narrow tool of attack.
Who is paid. Those it harms pay nothing, so I assume a government buys it as a weapon, and since such software is easy to write the firms that already supply states with arms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Logical Pathogen
The Medusa Chronicles, Alastair Reynolds (w/S. Baxter · 2016
A fictional malicious code hidden in genetic material, a hazard in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Judged as a working weapon rather than as the harm it does, harmful code hidden in genetic material is a narrow tool of attack.
Who is paid. Those it harms pay nothing, so I assume a government buys it as a weapon, and since such code can be written by others the firms that already supply states with arms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wristpad
New York 2140, Kim Stanley Robinson · 2017
A small touchscreen computer strapped to the forearm.
built in the 2010s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A computer on the forearm is another shape of the one people already carry, so it is a convenience.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and since it is easy to copy, the firms that already own gadget factories and well-known names collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Communication, media and displays · 4
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Metallic Display Scroll
Freedom, Daniel Suarez · 2010
A video screen flexible enough to be rolled up like a sheet of paper.
built in 2020, 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A screen as thin and bendable as paper could replace much printing and most rigid screens.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it inside the things they own; once shown it can be copied, so the firms with the big screen factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
DNA Publishing
Spiral, Paul McEuen · 2011
Writing literary text into genetic code so copies multiply along with the molecule.
built in the 2010s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Writing a book into genetic code is a curiosity beside ordinary storage.
Who is paid. Assuming archives and publishers pay for it as long-term storage, many laboratories can write genetic code, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
DNA Music Storage
Year Zero, Rob Reid · 2012
Storing recorded songs inside non-coding stretches of an organism's genome.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Keeping songs inside a living thing's genes is a curiosity beside ordinary storage.
Who is paid. Assuming archives and labels pay for it as long-term storage, many laboratories can write genetic code, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
OLED Body Film
Waste Tide, Chen Qiufan · 2019
Flexible light-emitting display material worn on or placed under the skin as ornament.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Glowing ornament on the skin is a fashion item.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; once shown many firms could make it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Robotics and automation · 4
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Office Hand
The Human Blend, Alan Dean Foster · 2010
A robot hand whose fingers each carry a different tool for work tasks.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A hand with a different tool on each finger is a handy fitting for a few kinds of work.
Who is paid. Firms are assumed to buy it for their workers, and such a hand is easy for many makers to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Parent Drone
Kill Decision, Daniel Suarez · 2012
A carrier aircraft that releases and deploys a group of smaller unmanned flyers.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A carrier that releases smaller flyers is support for a fleet, assumed here to be an armed force's fleet as in the story.
Who is paid. Armed forces pay, and the aircraft makers that already hold their contracts would build it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robotic Eel
Re:Set, Susan Beetlestone · 2012
A long, remotely piloted swimming robot shaped like a sea creature.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A swimming robot steered from afar is a handy tool for looking under water, a niche.
Who is paid. Survey and repair firms buy it, and many makers could build one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Nubot
Spark, John Twelve Hawks · 2014
A humanoid robot built to take over an individual worker's role in full.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A humanlike robot that takes over a worker's role in full could do most kinds of human work, which would change how most people work.
Who is paid. Firms buy them as labour, and since many could build such bodies once shown how, the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Medicine, biotech and longevity · 2
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Humeld
The Human Blend, Alan Dean Foster · 2010
A person whose body has been extensively modified with engineered or artificial parts.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the fitting of engineered and artificial parts to the body, which taken together covers replacement eyes, limbs and organs and is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and other firms could copy the parts, so established implant makers and the hospitals that fit them collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Nutrient Extractor and Maximizer (NEM)
The Human Blend, Alan Dean Foster · 2010
An implanted apparatus that takes over and improves how the body processes food.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. An implant that improves how the body uses food would be wanted by a great many people.
Who is paid. Patients pay, and makers of medical implants collect since rivals could build the same device.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Mind and neurotechnology · 5
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Necap
The Human Blend, Alan Dean Foster · 2010
A fictional device that damages a person's brain, used as a threat in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.
Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Neural Lace
Surface Detail, Iain M Banks · 2010
A mesh woven into the brain that links a person's mind with computing systems.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A mesh joining the mind to computers would be an industry of its own.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and since the implant could be copied the firms that already run the networks and do the surgery would collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Virtual Punishment
Complete Sentence, Joe Haldeman · 2011
A simulated sentence that makes a convict feel years of imprisonment pass in a brief period.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Making a long sentence pass in a short while would cut much of what prisons cost.
Who is paid. The state pays for its punishments, and the firms that already build and run prisons would collect since the method could be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Eel Operator
Re:Set, Susan Beetlestone · 2012
A person altered through surgery so they can pilot an underwater robot directly.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. This names a person, but the surgery behind it, wiring a pilot to an undersea machine, is a better set of controls where hand controls already do the job.
Who is paid. Firms that run the machines would buy it, and once one maker had the link others could copy it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cranial Amplified Programming CAP
Killing Titan, Greg Bear · 2015
A headpiece placed on the skull that speeds up how a person learns.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. I took the faster learning to be of the same kind as the knowledge-loading helmets, which would replace years of schooling for most people.
Who is paid. Families and learners would pay for it themselves, and once one firm had built the gear others could copy it and many could write the lessons, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Transport and mobility · 1
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Forward Warehousing
Stealing Worlds, Karl Schroeder · 2019
Logistics that stores goods in parked private vehicles close to where buyers live.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Keeping goods in parked cars near buyers would speed some deliveries, but shops and depots already sit close to most people.
Who is paid. Retailers pay for it, and the delivery firms that already run the networks and hold the customers collect because the idea is easy to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Materials, manufacturing and construction · 3
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wildcode
The Fractal Prince, Hannu Rajaniemi · 2012
A wasteland made of runaway microscopic machines, a hazard in the story's setting.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a wasteland of runaway tiny machines, a hazard and not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold; people avoid it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vehicle Seeds
Killing Titan, Greg Bear · 2015
Packaged materials and instructions that build a complete vehicle from local raw resources.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A package that builds a whole vehicle from local materials would upset vehicle making and shipping wherever a finished vehicle is costly to deliver, but it makes vehicles only.
Who is paid. The description names no buyer, so I assumed the buyers are firms working far from any factory, such as mines, expeditions and settlements, because building from local raw resources matters most where a finished vehicle cannot easily be brought; and unlike the pattern machine aboard ships a seed is used up in building and is not said to make more seeds, so vehicle firms with designs and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Superscraper
New York 2140, Kim Stanley Robinson · 2017
Extremely tall towers rising far beyond today's tallest buildings.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Much taller towers add floor space in a few crowded cities without changing what building costs.
Who is paid. Developers pay for them, and the firms that already own city land and do big construction collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Weapons and warfare · 3
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Angel Teeth
Freedom, Daniel Suarez · 2010
A fictional guided projectile dropped from high altitude, used as a weapon in the novel.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Striking an enemy from the air changed how wars are fought and supports a whole industry of warplanes and their arms.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Disabler
The Human Blend, Alan Dean Foster · 2010
A fictional tool that disables electric cars by emptying their batteries, used in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A tool that drains a car battery to stop it is a niche device.
Who is paid. Assuming police buy it to stop cars, it is simple to copy and the suppliers police already use collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Autonomous Assassination Drone
Kill Decision, Daniel Suarez · 2012
A fictional self-directed flying weapon used against targets in a techno-thriller.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Machines that find and attack targets without a soldier at risk would change how armies fight.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Surveillance, identity and control · 8
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Barker
The Human Blend, Alan Dean Foster · 2010
A fictional handheld tool that locates and hijacks people's medical implants, a threat in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A tool that finds and seizes other people's implants is a covert weapon wanted by a few services, and a crime in anyone else's hands.
Who is paid. Assuming a spy or police service may buy what the public may not, it pays, and since others could build the tool the firms already trusted with secret supply work collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ugly T-Shirt
Zero History, William Gibson · 2010
Clothing printed with patterns that confuse camera software so the wearer goes unrecognised.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Clothing that confuses camera software is wanted by a minority who care strongly about privacy.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and such wear is easy for any maker to copy so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Brain-Jacking
Kill Decision, Daniel Suarez · 2012
Taking control of living insects so they act as covert watchers.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A living insect turned into a watcher is a niche spy tool, since small flying machines do the same job more reliably.
Who is paid. Spy services pay, and the few firms already trusted with secret supply work collect because others could copy the method.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
EYE Program
Spark, John Twelve Hawks · 2014
A vast state data store holding records on ordinary citizens.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A state store of records on every citizen changes the cost of policing and tax work across a whole country.
Who is paid. The state pays, and data stores are easy to build, so the firms already running government computer systems collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Freedom ID
Spark, John Twelve Hawks · 2014
An implanted chip under the skin that identifies and tracks its carrier.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A chip that identifies and tracks every carrier would replace papers and cards and reshape policing across a country.
Who is paid. The state pays to chip its people, and the chips are easy to copy, so firms already making identity documents collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Norm-All Program
Spark, John Twelve Hawks · 2014
Government software that decides where each resident ought to be at any given time.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Software that tracks where every resident should be gives a state a new kind of control over a whole population.
Who is paid. The state pays, and the firms that already build and run its computer and records systems collect, since others could build the same.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Face Recognition Sunglasses
The Water Knife, Paolo Bacigalupi · 2015
Eyewear that identifies people in view by checking faces against an online database.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Glasses that name the people you see are a convenience for most wearers and a work tool for a few.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy them, and since pictures of faces can be gathered by many, the firms that already hold large stores of named pictures and sell devices collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
VEIL
Fall; or, Dodge in Hell: A Novel, Neal Stephenson · 2019
A wearable that stops cameras' identification software from recognising the wearer's face.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A wearable that stops cameras knowing your face is wanted by a minority who care strongly about privacy.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and such wear is easy for any maker to copy so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Food, agriculture and environment · 5
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Darknet Farm
Freedom, Daniel Suarez · 2010
A community farm run on networked computer systems to keep its agriculture sustainable.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Running one community farm by networked software is a modest gain in care for the land.
Who is paid. The farm itself pays for the system, and farm software and sensors can be supplied by many firms, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Lifting whole flooded districts above the water would save cities and be a building trade of its own.
Who is paid. City authorities pay, and the lifting can be copied, so the big construction firms that already win public works collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Rocket Pine
The Human Blend, Alan Dean Foster · 2010
Trees genetically modified to grow fast for paper and wood fibre production.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Fast-growing trees for paper and wood fibre would change the costs of the paper and timber trade.
Who is paid. Planters and mills buy the trees, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the nurseries and forestry firms that already hold stock, land and sales channels collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Clearsac
The Water Knife, Paolo Bacigalupi · 2015
A simple pouch that purifies dirty or used water well enough to drink again.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A pouch that makes dirty water drinkable is a cheap personal aid, precious where water is scarce but a small purchase.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and a simple filter pouch can be made by many firms, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Public Urine Collection
The Water Knife, Paolo Bacigalupi · 2015
Public toilets in enclosed cities that gather waste for water and nutrient recovery.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Gathering waste from public toilets to recover water and plant food is a modest saving for a dry city.
Who is paid. The city pays for its own plumbing, and the pipes and treatment gear can be supplied by many firms, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Home and everyday life · 5
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Aeromuse Pillow
The Human Blend, Alan Dean Foster · 2010
A bedtime cushion with built-in audio so the sleeper can listen to songs.
built in the 2010s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A pillow that plays songs is a minor comfort.
Who is paid. Sleepers buy it, and any maker of bedding or speakers can produce it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Onionskin Transparent Jeans
Super Sad True Love Story, Gary Shteyngart · 2011
Trousers made from see-through fabric worn as a fashion statement.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. See-through trousers are a fashion item for those who want them.
Who is paid. Households buy them, and once the cloth exists any clothing maker could copy it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Jonnytruck
The Water Knife, Paolo Bacigalupi · 2015
A rentable mobile toilet whose price is partly covered by recovering the waste.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A pay toilet on wheels serves people where water and plumbing are short.
Who is paid. Users pay each visit, and the trucks are easy to copy, so the operators who already run fleets and can sell the recovered waste collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Crowdcutter
Infomocracy, Malka Older · 2016
A wearable gadget that opens a path through dense crowds of people.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Getting through a crowd faster is a convenience for city dwellers.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and I assume it is a gadget other makers could copy once it had been seen.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hotello
New York 2140, Kim Stanley Robinson · 2017
A compact movable enclosure that sets up a private sleeping space inside a larger room.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A private sleeping nook inside a shared room helps people in crowded housing, but it is a simple piece of kit.
Who is paid. Unlike a pod hotel, this is a product the sleeper owns, so people buy it themselves, and any tent or furniture maker can produce it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Society and economy · 2
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Millenniaire
The Quantum Thief, Hannu Rajaniemi · 2010
A wealthy person holding a vast balance of lifespan, which serves as money in the story's economy.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Replaced Worker Benefits
Spark, John Twelve Hawks · 2014
Payments to people whose jobs have been taken over by machines.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A payment from the state to its people is a policy that moves money around, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.