Dated forecasts about this kind of technology from the singularity reading list, then every idea of this kind in the order stories first imagined it.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Imagined, oldest first
How large a prize, and which seller keeps the rest
Each idea is judged as if it worked the way its story promises: how large a prize it would be, who would pay, and which seller would keep what is left once buyers have had their gain. Choose a cell to see only those ideas; each count is the cards that cell shows. Every placing is a model's judgement, not a reading.
Seller
A vast prize
A large prize
A small prize
No prize
No seller keeps much
·
·
The maker keeps the rest
·
·
·
·
Existing firms keep the rest
·
Permit holders keep the rest
·
·
·
Nothing is sold
·
·
·
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mail-Post Letter-Ball
The Mummy! A Tale of the Twenty-Second Century, Jane Webb Loudon · 1828
Hollow balls fired between towns by steam cannon to deliver letters quickly.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Letters shot between towns arrive sooner, which is a convenience now that most messages need no paper.
Who is paid. I assume the public post pays for it, and the engineering firms that already build for the post collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Stage Balloon
The Mummy! A Tale of the Twenty-Second Century, Jane Webb Loudon · 1828
Scheduled lighter-than-air craft carrying the public like a coach service.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A lighter-than-air craft is slow and carries little beside aircraft and trains, so it stays a niche; this one runs to a timetable for the public.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the airship line buys it and charges riders, and any workshop could build it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Steam-Propelled Moving Houses
The Mummy! A Tale of the Twenty-Second Century, Jane Webb Loudon · 1828
Homes on wheels that travel from town to town under their own engine power.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A home that drives itself from town to town suits travellers and holidaymakers, which is a modest trade.
Who is paid. Owners buy it, and it is easy to copy, so the vehicle makers that already have factories and dealers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Express Dolphin
Le Monde Tel Qu'il Sera (The World As It Shall Be), Emile Souvestre · 1846
A pleasant vehicle for travelling quickly beneath the sea surface.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Fast and pleasant travel under the sea is an outing or a ferry on a few routes, since most people have no need to go beneath the surface.
Who is paid. Passengers pay fares, and I assume once such a vessel works any shipyard could build it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Passenger-Carrying Mortar
Le Monde Tel Qu'il Sera (The World As It Shall Be), Emile Souvestre · 1846
Firing travellers across a river from a gun instead of using a boat or bridge.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Being fired across a river is a stunt where a bridge or boat would do.
Who is paid. I assume a ferry operator would run it, and a launcher of this kind is simple to copy, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Burn the Ship
Around the World in 80 days, Jules Verne · 1868
Feeding a vessel's own timbers and fittings into its furnace to keep it moving.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a desperate act by a crew, not a product anyone would buy.
Who is paid. Nothing is made or sold here, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Diving Apparatus
20,000 Leagues Under the Sea, Jules Verne · 1875
Self-contained breathing gear that lets a person roam around the ocean floor for hours.
built in 1943, 68 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Breathing gear for roaming the sea floor opened diving for sport, salvage and science, which is a real but modest trade.
Who is paid. I assume sport divers are the main buyers, and many firms can make tanks and valves, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Nautilus
20,000 Leagues Under the Sea, Jules Verne · 1875
A large, self-sufficient electric submarine able to roam the oceans for long periods without surfacing.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A submarine that stays under for long periods and feeds itself is worth a great deal to a navy and an industry to those who build it.
Who is paid. I assume navies are the main buyers, and the shipyards that already hold naval contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Telepomp (Matter Transmission)
The Man Without a Body, Edward Page Mitchell · 1877
A machine that breaks an object down in one place and reassembles it somewhere else.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Sending things instantly across any distance would replace most shipping and haulage, which changes how most people are supplied and how most firms work.
Who is paid. Traders and carriers pay, since the description sends objects and not people, which is why the payer differs from the booths for travellers; once a firm had built it others could, so the carriers and builders that already own the depots and the customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Air-Ship (VTOL Airship)
The Angel of the Revolution, George Griffith · 1893
A flying craft that can rise straight up and land without a runway.
built in the 1950s, about 60 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A craft that needs no runway can reach rooftops, ships and wild country, which is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Rescue services, armies and offshore firms buy it, and the established aircraft builders collect because the design can be copied but the factories and safety approval cannot quickly be had.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Electric Phaetons (Electric Cars)
A Journey In Other Worlds, John Jacob Astor IV · 1894
Road vehicles that run wholly on electric motors instead of horses or engines.
built in the 1890s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Cars that run on electric motors change the fuel and upkeep costs of the whole car industry, though they make the same trips.
Who is paid. Drivers buy them, and electric motors and batteries can be had by any maker, so the firms with factories, dealers and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Magnetic Railroads
A Journey In Other Worlds, John Jacob Astor IV · 1894
Trains driven along their track by powerful electromagnets rather than steam.
built in the 1980s, about 90 years after it was imagined
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Trains pushed along by magnets run fast and clean, which changes the cost of travel by rail.
Who is paid. Governments pay for a public way of this size, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Marine Spider (Hydrofoil)
A Journey In Other Worlds, John Jacob Astor IV · 1894
A boat that lifts its hull out of the water on underwater wings to go faster.
built in the 1960s, about 70 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A hull that rides above the water is faster on short crossings but costly on large ships, so it stays a niche.
Who is paid. Ferry operators buy it, and many boat yards can build it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vehicle Energy Reclamation
A Journey In Other Worlds, John Jacob Astor IV · 1894
Capturing the energy a vehicle gains going uphill and reusing it as it rolls downhill.
built in the 1990s, about 100 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Saving the energy of a climb for the way down cuts fuel use a little, which is a feature.
Who is paid. Owners pay for it through the price of the vehicle, and the established vehicle makers fit it and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Submarine Tube
An Express of the Future, Michel Verne · 1895
Passenger capsules shot through a pipeline laid beneath the ocean between continents.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Fast capsules in sealed tubes would rival trains and aircraft on their routes, which changes the cost of travel between cities; this one runs under the ocean.
Who is paid. Governments pay for a public way of this size, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Electric Bicycle
In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897
A bicycle driven by a battery-powered motor.
built in the 1890s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A bicycle with a motor makes cheap personal travel easy for many people who would not pedal far, which is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Riders buy it, and many small factories can bolt a motor and battery to a frame, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Walking Balloon
In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897
A gas-lifted craft with legs that strides lightly across rough terrain.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A lighter-than-air craft is slow and carries little beside aircraft and trains, so it stays a niche; legs let this one cross rough ground.
Who is paid. Operators buy it, and airships are simple enough for many builders to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Aerocycle (Ærocycle)
Looking Forward: A Dream of the United States of the Americas in 1999, Arthur Bird · 1899
A pedal-driven flying bicycle lifted into the air by its rider's own effort.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Flying on muscle alone is a sport for the fit, not a way of getting about.
Who is paid. Hobbyists buy it, and any maker of light frames and wings could build it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Aerodrome (Ærodromes)
Looking Forward: A Dream of the United States of the Americas in 1999, Arthur Bird · 1899
Powered machines that carry people through the air.
built in 1903, 4 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Powered flight for passengers is an industry of its own that shrank the time between distant cities.
Who is paid. Airlines buy the machines, and since flight itself was quickly copied, the few builders with the factories and safety approval collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Moving Roadway
When the Sleeper Wakes, H.G. Wells · 1899
A continuously moving street surface, fitted with seats and stalls, that carries riders around bends.
built in the 1950s, about 60 years after it was imagined
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A street that carries its riders would replace buses and cars on its route, which changes the cost of getting about a city.
Who is paid. Governments pay for a public way of this size, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Aerocar
The Abduction of Alexandra Seine, Fred C. Smale · 1900
A small aircraft that private individuals fly themselves around in.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A private vehicle that flies its owner over the roads would be an industry of its own, though it mostly replaces trips people already make by car.
Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
The Terror
Master of the World, Jules Verne · 1904
A single vehicle that races at great speed on roads, across water, underwater and through the air.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A lone vehicle for road, water and air does each job worse than a craft built for it, so it suits a few buyers who want them all.
Who is paid. I assume wealthy owners buy it, and once it was built other makers could copy it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Aerocab (Aeroflyer)
Ralph 124c 41 +, Hugo Gernsback · 1911
A battery-powered aircraft that ferries passengers around a city like a hired car.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Hired flight across a city, working as promised, would be an industry of its own beside road cabs.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the air cab buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gyrocar
Two Boys in a Gyrocar the story of a New York to Paris motor race, Kenneth Brown · 1911
A car on two wheels that keeps itself upright using a spinning gyroscope.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Balancing on fewer wheels makes a vehicle narrower but does nothing an ordinary car cannot already do.
Who is paid. Drivers buy it, and a gyroscope is easy to copy, so the car makers that already own the factories and dealers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sub-Atlantic Tube
Ralph 124c 41 +, Hugo Gernsback · 1911
A tunnel beneath the ocean linking continents by the most direct route.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A tunnel under the ocean would link continents by land, which changes the cost of travel and trade between them.
Who is paid. Governments pay for a public way of this size, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tele-Motor-Coasters
Ralph 124c 41 +, Hugo Gernsback · 1911
Motorised roller skates for getting around town.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Skates with motors are a toy and a way round town for a few riders.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and many workshops could build it once it is shown to work, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Aero Bus (Flying Bus)
What Not: A Prophetic Comedy, Rose Macaulay · 1918
An aircraft carrying many passengers on regular routes like a city bus.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Scheduled flights across a city for many passengers at once would be an industry of its own beside buses and trains.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the air bus buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Magnetic Elevator
The Gods of Mars, Edgar Rice Burroughs · 1918
A lift driven by strong electromagnets instead of cables.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A lift without cables is a better lift, useful in very tall buildings but a part of the building and not a new industry.
Who is paid. Building owners pay for it, and the lift makers that already fit and service lifts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pocket-Wings
A Journey to the Year 2025, Clement Fezandie · 1921
Personal powered gear that lets one person fly.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Free personal flight with no limit stated would be an industry of its own, replacing many trips now made by car.
Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Atoplane
The Moon of Doom, Earl L. Bell · 1928
A nuclear-powered aeroplane that flies very fast over huge ranges.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. An aircraft that flies very fast with almost no limit on range would change the costs of long-distance flight.
Who is paid. Airlines and freight carriers buy the aeroplane, and it is judged as a craft, not as its power source, so the aircraft makers that already build and service fleets collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Auto-Car
The Revolt of the Pedestrians, David H. Keller · 1928
A small personal vehicle a person can drive both inside buildings and on streets.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A little vehicle for indoors and the street helps people who find walking hard, and is a convenience for others.
Who is paid. Riders buy it, and many firms can make a small electric cart, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flying Harness
Skylark of Space, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1928
A strap-on rig that lets its wearer fly around freely.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A rig that lets a person fly wherever they please, working as promised, would be an industry of its own as the motorbike is; the description gives no limit on range or weather, so I assume there is no such limit.
Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Aerocab
Buck Rogers, 2430 AD, Philip Nowlan (w/D. Calkins · 1929
A hired passenger vehicle that hovers and flies people across a city.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Hired flight across a city, working as promised, would be an industry of its own beside road cabs.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the air cab buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Air Tunnel
Through the Air Tunnel, Harl Vincent · 1929
A route that carries railway cars aloft through the sky rather than along ground tracks.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A railway carried through the sky would cross rivers, hills and cities without land or tunnels, changing the cost of building lines.
Who is paid. Governments pay for railways on this scale, and the builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Air-Freighter Cargo Plane
The Invisible Raiders, Ed Earl Repp · 1929
A giant aeroplane built to haul goods between distant cities.
built in the 1940s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Flying goods between distant cities is an industry of its own that made fast long-distance delivery ordinary.
Who is paid. Freight carriers buy the aircraft, and since any large builder can make a cargo plane, the builders and carriers that already own the factories and fleets collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Atmospheric Pressure Control Plane
Around the World in 24 Hours, R.H. Romans · 1929
An aircraft that stays aloft by generating zones of higher air pressure beneath and lower above it.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The description gives only a different way of staying aloft, so I assume it does what other aircraft already do.
Who is paid. Airlines would buy it, and the established aircraft builders collect because a new lifting method can be copied once shown.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flying Platform
Locked Worlds, Edmond Hamilton · 1929
Plain flat panels that lift off and hold position in midair, serving as flying rafts.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A flat panel that lifts and holds still in the air is a small flying raft, useful for odd jobs and short hops rather than everyday travel.
Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Local Time Clock
The Silent Destroyer, Henri Dahl Juve · 1929
An aircraft clock that automatically adjusts to show the hour of whatever ground lies beneath.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A clock that shows the hour of the ground below is a handy extra for crews and passengers.
Who is paid. Airlines buy it with the aircraft, and any instrument maker could build it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
O-220
Tarzan at the Eath's Core, Edgar Rice Burroughs · 1929
An exceptionally light rigid airship built for long-range exploration flights.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A lighter-than-air craft is slow and carries little beside aircraft and trains, so it stays a niche; this one is built for long exploring flights.
Who is paid. Operators buy it, and airships are simple enough for many builders to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Position Locator Display
Flight of the Eastern Star, Ed Earl Repp · 1929
A screen that tracks and plots the locations of many aircraft at once.
built in the 1950s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A screen showing where many aircraft are is a needed tool for those who direct air traffic, and few buy it.
Who is paid. Governments run air traffic control and pay for it, and the electronics firms that already hold those contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Rescue Nets
Flight of the Eastern Star, Ed Earl Repp · 1929
Safety netting deployed around the rim of a huge aircraft to catch people or objects that fall.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Nets round the rim of a huge aircraft are a safety fitting.
Who is paid. The operator of the aircraft buys them, and netting is simple to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Suitcase Airplane
Suitcase Airplanes, E.D. Skinner · 1929
A tiny two-seat biplane that folds down small enough to pack and carry.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A plane that folds small enough to carry puts flight in private hands, and the description states no limit on where it can fly, so it is judged with the free personal flyers as an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Air-Shoes
An Adventure in Time, Francis Flagg · 1930
Footwear that lets someone stride on empty air and ascend as though climbing invisible steps.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Walking on air lets a person climb without stairs, which is a marvel and a convenience but moves nobody far.
Who is paid. People buy a pair for themselves, and once the trick is known any shoemaker could fit it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Helicops
The Black Star Passes, John W. Campbell · 1930
Compact personal aircraft that carry workers to and from their jobs by air.
built in the 1940s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A private vehicle that flies its owner over the roads would be an industry of its own, though it mostly replaces trips people already make by car.
Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Solar-Powered Aircraft
The Black Star Passes, John W. Campbell · 1930
An aeroplane that flies using only energy gathered from sunlight.
built in the 1970s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. An aircraft that flies on sunlight alone needs no fuel, which changes the costs of flying; I assume it carries passengers and freight, unlike the pilotless sunlight scout judged small elsewhere, and I judge the promise though the real thing carries very little.
Who is paid. Airlines and other operators pay for it through the aircraft, and the established aircraft builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Spherical Tires
The Death's Head Meteor, Neil R. Jones · 1930
Ball-shaped wheels that let a vehicle roll in any direction instead of only forward and back.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Wheels that roll any way make parking and turning easier, which is a convenience.
Who is paid. Owners pay for them through the price of the vehicle, and the tyre and vehicle makers that already have factories and dealers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
The Cosmic Express
The Cosmic Express, Jack Williamson · 1930
Sending physical objects or people from place to place as a broadcast signal, with no vehicle.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Sending things instantly across any distance would replace most shipping and haulage, which changes how most people are supplied and how most firms work; this one sends people too.
Who is paid. I assume carriers and traders pay to send people and goods through, and once a firm had built it others could, so the carriers and builders that already own the depots, the ports and the customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Centipede-Machine
Monsters of Mars, Edmond Hamilton · 1931
A vehicle that walks on many jointed legs instead of rolling on wheels.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A vehicle on many legs can cross ground that stops wheels, which matters in a few rough places.
Who is paid. Firms and armies working on rough ground buy it, and once walking machines work many builders could make them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Conveyor Ribbon
Exiles of the Moon, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931
A motorised walkway belt that carries pedestrians along while they stand.
built in the 1950s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The belt built for stations and long halls turned out a convenience, but the story sets it against the fixed pavement as the way people get about a town, and a moving pavement in place of streets would change the cost of getting about a city.
Who is paid. I assume a town pays for it as a public way, as with the other moving streets, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Faster-Than-Light
Islands of Space, John W. Campbell · 1931
Travel or signalling quicker than light itself.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Judged as a working way to travel and signal faster than light, it would found an industry of its own, though few people would ever make the trip.
Who is paid. Carriers and shipping firms buy the ships, as they do in the other star drive entries, and once the drive is known others could build it, so the established ship builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Heliocar
The Prince of Space, Jack Williamson · 1931
A road car that can also rise vertically and fly using rotors.
built in 2017, 86 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A private vehicle that flies its owner over the roads would be an industry of its own, though it mostly replaces trips people already make by car.
Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Matter Transmitter
The Conquest of Gola, L.F. Stone · 1931
A device that makes an object vanish in one spot and reappear somewhere else.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Sending things instantly across any distance would replace most shipping and haulage, which changes how most people are supplied and how most firms work.
Who is paid. Traders and carriers pay, since the description sends objects and not people, which is why the payer differs from the booths for travellers; once a firm had built it others could, so the carriers and builders that already own the depots and the customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Matter Transmitter and Receiver
Monsters of Mars, Edmond Hamilton · 1931
A pair of machines that sends a physical object from one to the other across space.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Sending things instantly across any distance would replace most shipping and haulage, which changes how most people are supplied and how most firms work.
Who is paid. Traders and carriers pay, since the description sends objects and not people, which is why the payer differs from the booths for travellers; once a firm had built it others could, so the carriers and builders that already own the depots and the customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pneumatic Tube Station
Exiles of the Moon, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931
Sealed passenger capsules blown at speed through air-pressure tubes between stations.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Fast capsules in sealed tubes would rival trains and aircraft on their routes, which changes the cost of travel between cities.
Who is paid. Governments pay for a public way of this size, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Rocket Liner
Exiles of the Moon, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931
A rocket that carries passengers between cities on Earth by arcing up to the edge of space.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Crossing the world in a short arc through the edge of space would be an industry of its own beside the airlines.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the rocket service buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Skycar
Prima Donna 1980, Bernard Brown · 1931
A small privately owned aircraft that a person uses like a car for daily trips.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A private aircraft used like a car for daily trips would be an industry of its own, though it mostly replaces trips people already make by car.
Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Stationary Sidewalk
Exiles of the Moon, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931
An ordinary fixed pavement for walking, as opposed to a moving belt.
built since, date unclear
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A plain pavement is only named here against the moving kind, yet safe places to walk serve nearly everyone in a town.
Who is paid. Towns pay for pavements as public works, and though paving is easy to do, the road builders that already hold the towns' contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Teleradio Control (Hand Flash)
Exiles of the Moon, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931
A handheld signal that summons a driverless car, which then makes its own way to whoever called it.
built in 2016, 85 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A car that needs no driver gives back the hours spent at the wheel and opens car travel to people who cannot drive, which is worth an industry of its own; the signal only calls the car to its owner.
Who is paid. Owners buy it, and since several firms can build a driving system once it is shown to work, the car makers that already own factories, dealers and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ultra-Telescope Ray
The Moon Weed, Harl Vincent · 1931
A beam that teleports objects or people between planets.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Sending things instantly across any distance would replace most shipping and haulage, which changes how most people are supplied and how most firms work; this one reaches other planets and sends people too.
Who is paid. I assume carriers and traders pay to send people and goods through, and once a firm had built it others could, so the carriers and builders that already own the depots, the ports and the customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Automatic Truck
Mechanocracy, Miles J. Breuer · 1932
A freight vehicle that steers itself to whatever destination is chosen, with no driver at the wheel.
built in the 2020s, about 90 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Taking the driver out of road freight changes the costs of the whole haulage industry.
Who is paid. Haulage firms buy it, and since several firms can build a driving system once it is shown to work, the truck makers and hauliers that already own factories, fleets and customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Conveyor
Slaves of Mercury, Nat Schachner · 1932
A vast moving walkway that carries passengers from one city to the next.
built since, date unclear
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A moving walkway between cities would replace trains and roads on its route, which would change the cost of travel there.
Who is paid. Governments pay for a public way of this size, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Electric Boat
The Great Drought, S.P. Meek · 1932
A water vessel driven by electric motors instead of combustion engines.
already existed before the story (the 1880s)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. An electric motor makes a boat quieter and cleaner but it does the same job as before.
Who is paid. Boat owners buy it, and any boatyard can fit an electric motor, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pneumatic-Tube Zone
Mechanocracy, Miles J. Breuer · 1932
The part of a city where every home is linked by its own pneumatic pipe for sending goods.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A pipe to every home that delivers goods would take over much of the work of shops and delivery vans in a city.
Who is paid. I assume the city pays for the pipes as it pays for water mains, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Torpoon
Seed of the Arctic Ice, H.G. Winter · 1932
A small submersible that hunts whales by pairing a self-propelled underwater missile with a barbed spear.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A small craft for hunting whales serves a trade that most countries have ended.
Who is paid. I assume whaling firms may still buy it somewhere, and many boat yards could build it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vacuum Cylinder
Wandl, The Invader, Ray Cummings · 1932
Sends passengers in sealed capsules through evacuated pipes, the way offices once shot letters around.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Fast capsules in sealed tubes would rival trains and aircraft on their routes, which changes the cost of travel between cities.
Who is paid. Governments pay for a public way of this size, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cosmo-Craft
A Race Through Time, Donald Wandrei · 1933
A vessel able to journey backward or forward in history as well as across the cosmos.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A ship that crosses the cosmos would found an industry of its own, and I have not counted the travel through time, whose worth I cannot judge.
Who is paid. I assume governments would pay for and closely hold a craft that can also move through time, and the established space contractors that build for them collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Lunar Tunnel (Human Pendulum)
Captive of the Crater, D.D. Sharp · 1933
A shaft bored straight through the moon so a falling body swings back and forth between opposite surfaces.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A fall through the Moon would be a quick way between its far sides for the few people living there.
Who is paid. A government pays for a boring of this size, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Solar-Powered Electric Helicopter
Into the Meteorite Orbit, James Patrick Kelly · 1933
A rotor aircraft driven by electric motors that draw power from photovoltaic panels.
built in the 1970s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A rotor craft that flies on sunlight alone needs no fuel, which changes the costs of flying; I assume it carries people and loads, unlike the pilotless sunlight scout judged small elsewhere, and I judge the promise.
Who is paid. Airlines and other operators pay for it through the aircraft, and the established aircraft builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vibra-Transmitter (Teleportation)
Into the Meteorite Orbit, Frank K. Kelly · 1933
A machine that breaks matter down at one place and rebuilds it elsewhere, moving objects without crossing the gap.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Sending things instantly across any distance would replace most shipping and haulage, which changes how most people are supplied and how most firms work.
Who is paid. Traders and carriers pay, since the description sends objects and not people, which is why the payer differs from the booths for travellers; once a firm had built it others could, so the carriers and builders that already own the depots and the customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Air-Car
A Matter of Size, Harry Bates · 1934
A private vehicle that lifts off and flies its owner through the air instead of driving on roads.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A private vehicle that flies its owner over the roads would be an industry of its own, though it mostly replaces trips people already make by car.
Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Automatic Parking
Twilight, John W. Campbell · 1934
A vehicle takes itself to a shared garage and parks there after dropping off its rider.
built in the 2010s, about 80 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A car that parks itself after dropping its rider saves a walk and some time, which is a convenience.
Who is paid. Drivers pay for it as a feature of the car, and the car makers that already sell the vehicles collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bergenholm Drive
Triplanetary, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1934
An engine component that strips a ship of its inertia, letting it change speed instantly.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Reaching other stars in a useful time would found an industry of its own, though few people would ever make the trip.
Who is paid. Carriers and shipping firms buy the ships, as they do in the other star drive entries, and once the drive is known others could build it, so the established ship builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flying Wing
Triplanetary, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1934
A tailless, arrowhead-shaped aircraft that climbs into the very thin air at the top of the sky.
built in the 1940s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A tailless shape that reaches very thin air is a better kind of aircraft for a few tasks, not a new service.
Who is paid. I assume air forces are the main buyers of very high flyers, and the aircraft builders that already hold those contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gyrocars with Photo-Electric Braking
Photo Control, Bernard Brown · 1934
Vehicles press their tyres hard against the road and use light sensors to control stopping and turning automatically.
built in the 1960s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Sensors that brake and steer for the driver make a car safer, which is a feature rather than a new way to travel.
Who is paid. Drivers pay for it with the car, and the car makers and their parts suppliers collect because the sensors are easy to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Inertialess Drive
Triplanetary, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1934
A propulsion system cancels a ship's inertia so it can exceed light speed and cross between stars quickly.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Reaching other stars in a useful time would found an industry of its own, though few people would ever make the trip.
Who is paid. Carriers and shipping firms buy the ships, as they do in the other star drive entries, and once the drive is known others could build it, so the established ship builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Stratoplane
Colossus, Donald Wandrei · 1934
An aircraft built to cruise at the extreme upper limit of the air, far above ordinary airliners.
built in the 1930s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Flying far above ordinary airliners is faster and smoother, which is a better aircraft and not a new industry.
Who is paid. Airlines and other operators pay for it through the aircraft, and the established aircraft builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Automatic Air Mail Plane
The Living Machine, David H. Keller · 1935
An aircraft that flies itself to carry mail and freight with no pilot aboard.
built in the 1960s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Hauling goods with no crew aboard changes the costs of a whole freight industry.
Who is paid. Freight carriers buy it, and since the self-steering gear can be copied, the carriers and builders that already own the fleets and routes collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Automatic Toll Payment
The Living Machine, David H. Keller · 1935
A self-driving vehicle settles road charges on its own as it passes collection points.
built in the 2020s, about 90 years after it was imagined
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Paying road charges without stopping saves drivers a little time and the road owner some staff.
Who is paid. I assume road authorities buy the collection system, and the suppliers that already equip their roads collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Driverless Car
The Living Machine, David H. Keller · 1935
An automobile that steers, accelerates and brakes by itself, carrying passengers with nobody driving.
built in 2009, 74 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A car that needs no driver gives back the hours spent at the wheel and opens car travel to people who cannot drive, which is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Owners buy it, and since several firms can build a driving system once it is shown to work, the car makers that already own factories, dealers and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Driverless Taxi
The Living Machine, David H. Keller · 1935
A for-hire car that picks up and delivers paying riders with no human at the wheel.
built in 2020, 85 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A cab with no driver takes the largest cost out of every taxi ride, which is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the cab buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Floater (Vehicle)
The Machine, John W. Campbell · 1935
A craft that hovers and travels by cancelling gravity instead of using wings or rotors.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Cancelling gravity would make lifting and moving heavy things far cheaper, which changes the costs of transport and building rather than meeting a basic need.
Who is paid. Firms that move and lift things buy it, and once it is built others could copy it, so the vehicle and aircraft makers that already own factories and customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
No Steering Wheel Autonomous Car
The Living Machine, David H. Keller · 1935
A self-driving automobile built without any controls for a person to take over.
built in 2009, 74 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A car that needs no driver gives back the hours spent at the wheel and opens car travel to people who cannot drive, which is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Owners buy it, and since several firms can build a driving system once it is shown to work, the car makers that already own factories, dealers and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Trans-Oceanic Rocket
The Worlds of If, Stanley G. Weinbaum · 1935
A rocket-powered aircraft that crosses between continents in a single short, high-arcing flight.
built in the 2010s, about 80 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Crossing between continents in a short high arc would be an industry of its own beside the airlines.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the rocket service buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cartograph
The Cometeers, Jack Williamson · 1936
A gadget that keeps and displays a map of where its owner has traveled.
built in the 1970s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A record of where the owner has been is a handy extra for travellers.
Who is paid. Travellers buy it, and any maker of small electronics could build it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Volplane
Blood of the Moon, Ray Cummings · 1936
A small craft that ferries people across the lunar surface.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A ferry across the lunar surface serves only the few people who are on the Moon.
Who is paid. Operators of lunar bases buy it, and any builder of space vehicles could make it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Groundcar (or Ground Car)
Galactic Patrol, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1937
An ordinary wheeled road vehicle that neither hovers nor flies.
built since, date unclear
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. The ordinary wheeled car changed where most people live, work and shop.
Who is paid. Drivers buy it, and since any firm can design a car, the makers with the factories, dealers and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Locatimeter
The Iron World, Otis Adelbert Kline · 1937
An instrument that tells an aircraft its position above the globe.
built in the 1970s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Knowing where an aircraft is matters to every flight, but it is an instrument inside the aircraft and not an industry by itself.
Who is paid. Airlines pay for it through the aircraft, and the instrument makers that already supply the aircraft builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Stratocar
The Cavern of the Shining Pool, Leo Zagat · 1937
A vehicle built to carry travelers through the thin air high above the clouds.
built in the 1930s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Flying high above the weather is faster and smoother, which is a better aircraft and not a new industry.
Who is paid. Airlines and other operators pay for it through the aircraft, and the established aircraft builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Buggaroo
The Secret of the Canali, Clifton B. Kruse · 1938
A native animal of Mars ridden or used to carry travelers.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a wild animal of another world, not a technology anyone builds.
Who is paid. Nothing is made or sold here, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gyrotomic
Ra For The Rajah, John Victor Peterson · 1938
A compact stabilized vehicle that rides on a cushion of air.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Riding on a cushion of air suits marsh, shallows and ice but is noisier and thirstier than wheels elsewhere, so it stays a niche.
Who is paid. This one is a compact personal craft, so riders buy it for themselves, and many builders can make an air cushion craft, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Helicoptomic
Ra For The Rajah, John Victor Peterson · 1938
A small hovering aircraft that lets officials watch a fast airborne sport from above.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A small hovering craft for watching a sport from above serves only a few officials.
Who is paid. Sports bodies buy it, and many builders can make a small hovering craft, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pneumatic Bumpers
The Brain Pirates, John W. Campbell · 1938
Inflatable cushions on the outside of cars to soften collisions.
built in the 1950s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Cushions on the outside of a car soften a crash, which is a safety feature.
Who is paid. Owners pay for it through the price of the vehicle, and the established vehicle makers fit it and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Directed Cars in Tunnels
The Lord of Tranerica, Stanton A. Coblentz · 1939
Driverless cars guided through underground roadways.
built in the 2020s, about 90 years after it was imagined
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A road that does the driving would give every car on it the gains of driverless travel, but only where such roads are built.
Who is paid. Governments pay for roads, and the control gear is not hard to copy, so the road builders and signalling suppliers that already hold public works contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Extraecliptic Travel Lanes
A Question of Salvage, Malcolm Jameson · 1939
Organised shipping routes between planets that leave the flat plane of their orbits.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is an agreed set of routes for ships rather than a thing anyone makes or buys.
Who is paid. Nothing is made or sold here, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Geopeller
One Against The Legion, Jack Williamson · 1939
A compact engine driven by nuclear energy that pushes vehicles along.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A compact nuclear engine would free vehicles from fuel stops and change the running costs of transport.
Who is paid. Vehicle and ship builders buy it, but only the few firms a government trusts with nuclear fuel could make it, so those permit holders keep the gain.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Inertia Tank
Masson's Secret, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1939
A container that shields fragile cargo from jolts by padding it.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Padding that protects fragile cargo from jolts is useful packing and nothing more.
Who is paid. Shippers buy it, and padded containers are simple for any firm to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Metal Desk Car
Ben Gleed, King of Speed, Don Wilcox · 1939
A moving vehicle with a built-in workstation for people looking things up.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A moving desk for looking things up is a convenience for a few kinds of work.
Who is paid. Firms buy it for their staff, and any vehicle fitter could build it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Transparent Car Roof
Sinister Barrier, Eric Frank Russell · 1939
A vehicle top made of clear material so occupants can see the sky.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A clear roof gives a view of the sky, which is a comfort.
Who is paid. Owners pay for it through the price of the vehicle, and the established vehicle makers fit it and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Air Scooter
Space Double, Nat Schachner · 1940
A one-person craft that lets its rider fly short hops through the air.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The description promises only short hops, so it is a sport and a convenience rather than a way most people would travel.
Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Rocket-Belt
The Worlds of Tomorrow, Manly Wade Wellman · 1940
A one-person thrust pack worn on the body for flight.
built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Free personal flight with no limit stated would be an industry of its own, replacing many trips now made by car.
Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Rolling Road
The Roads Must Roll, Robert Heinlein · 1940
Bands of moving pavement at graded speeds that carry crowds across long distances.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Moving pavements that carry crowds over long distances would replace trains and roads on their routes, which would change the cost of travel there.
Who is paid. Governments pay for a public way of this size, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Steel Tortoise
Coventry, Robert Heinlein · 1940
A rugged armoured vehicle able to cross almost any ground.
built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. An armoured vehicle that crosses almost any ground is worth having for an army or an expedition, and few are needed.
Who is paid. I assume armies are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold army supply contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Stratospheric Traffic
The Great God Awto, Clark Ashton Smith · 1940
Congested air lanes where personal aircraft jam the sky at all altitudes.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Crowded air lanes are a nuisance that comes with personal aircraft, not a thing anyone would buy.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so there is no buyer and no seller.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tumblebug
The Roads Must Roll, Robert Heinlein · 1940
A motor vehicle that rides and balances on just one wheel.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A narrow self-balancing vehicle is a handy way round town but does little that a small car or motorbike does not.
Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Two-Wheeled Car
The Roads Must Roll, Robert Heinlein · 1940
A compact enclosed passenger vehicle riding on two wheels set in a single line.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A narrow self-balancing vehicle is a handy way round town but does little that a small car or motorbike does not.
Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bee Wing
Slacker's Paradise, Malcolm Jameson · 1941
An aircraft on the red planet that flies by beating its wings like an insect.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A flapping aircraft for the thin air of another planet serves only the few people living there.
Who is paid. Settlements and their suppliers buy it, and any aircraft workshop there could copy it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Camden Speedster
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
A road car that can also cross water and leap briefly into the air.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It is a road car with short hops over water and through the air added, which is a thrill more than a new way to travel.
Who is paid. Drivers buy it, and since it only leaps briefly rather than flies, it is an ordinary car feature that the makers with factories and dealers collect on.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Controlway
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
A highway that drives every car on it, taking over steering and speed.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A road that does the driving would give every car on it the gains of driverless travel, but only where such roads are built.
Who is paid. Governments pay for roads, and the control gear is not hard to copy, so the road builders and signalling suppliers that already hold public works contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flitter
Vortex Blaster, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1941
A small craft for quick hops over short distances.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The description promises only short hops, so it is a sport and a convenience rather than a way most people would travel.
Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Slidewalk
Sanity, Fritz Leiber · 1941
A moving belt that carries people along as they stand or stroll.
built in the 1950s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The walkway built in airports and large buildings turned out a convenience, but the story promises moving pavements in place of city streets, and that would replace buses and cars on their routes and change the cost of getting about a city.
Who is paid. I assume a town pays for it as a public way, as with the other moving streets, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Solar Car
The Man Who Bought Mars, Polton Cross · 1941
An automobile that runs on power gathered from sunlight.
built in the 1980s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A car that runs on sunlight alone needs no fuel or charging, which changes the cost of driving; the real thing gathers far less than the promise, and I judge the promise, as with the vehicle sun panels judged under energy.
Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Talking Speedometer
Biddiver, Theodore Sturgeon · 1941
An instrument that speaks its reading aloud instead of showing a dial.
built in the 1990s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A gauge that speaks its reading is a small extra for drivers.
Who is paid. Drivers pay for it with the car, and it is simple to make and fit, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Antigravity Plate (Antigravity Raft)
Co-Operate or Else, A.E. van Vogt · 1942
A thin disk that hovers by cancelling gravity.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Cancelling gravity would make lifting and moving heavy things far cheaper, which changes the costs of transport and building rather than meeting a basic need.
Who is paid. Firms that move and lift things buy it, and once it is built others could copy it, so the vehicle and aircraft makers that already own factories and customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Slideway
Beyond This Horizon, Robert Heinlein · 1942
A moving belt pavement that carries pedestrians along without walking.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The description calls it a pavement, so it is judged as a moving street and not as the walkway found in large buildings, and a street that carries its walkers would change the cost of getting about a city.
Who is paid. I assume a town pays for it as a public way, as with the other moving streets, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gyrocar Monorail
The Anarch, Malcolm Jameson · 1944
A vehicle that stays upright on one rail or two wheels using spinning gyroscopes.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Balancing upright on a lone rail makes the line cheaper to lay but carries people as trains already do.
Who is paid. I assume this one runs on a rail as public transport, so a city government pays, and the established railway builders collect because a gyroscope is easy to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Bus
The Little Things, Henry Kuttner · 1946
A driverless bus that carries passengers without a human at the wheel.
built in 2022, 76 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A bus with no driver to pay makes bus travel cheaper and more frequent, which would be an industry of its own.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the bus buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gyrocab
You Are Forbidden!, Jerry Shelton · 1947
A taxi that flies passengers through the air on rotors.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Hired flight across a city, working as promised, would be an industry of its own beside road cabs.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the air cab buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Skimmer
Lost Ulysses, W.L. Bade · 1949
A craft that glides just above the ground on a cushion of lift.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Riding on a cushion of lift suits marsh, shallows and ice but is noisier and thirstier than wheels elsewhere, so it stays a niche.
Who is paid. Operators buy it, and many builders can make a cushion craft, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Helicab
Heli-Cab Hack, John Weston · 1950
A hire service that carries fare-paying passengers by rotorcraft.
built in the 1960s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Hired flight across a city, working as promised, would be an industry of its own beside road cabs; the real rotor cab services stayed a costly niche.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the air cab buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sand Ship
The Martian Chronicles, Ray Bradbury · 1950
A sail-driven craft that races across open sand.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A sail craft on open sand is a sport and a way across a few deserts.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and many workshops could build it once it is shown to work, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tractatruck
The Moon is Hell, John W. Campbell · 1950
A rugged working vehicle that both pulls heavy loads and carries cargo across rough terrain.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A rugged vehicle that pulls and carries over rough ground is a useful working machine among many like it.
Who is paid. Farms, mines and building firms buy it, and the established makers of heavy vehicles collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Two-Wheeled Ground Car
First Lensman, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1950
A self-balancing two-wheeler with a closed cabin, somewhere between a motorbike and a car.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A narrow self-balancing vehicle is a handy way round town but does little that a small car or motorbike does not.
Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Air Speedster
Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1951
A nimble light aircraft used by wealthy sportsmen to chase game.
built in the 2020s, about 70 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A nimble light aircraft for hunting is a toy for the rich.
Who is paid. Wealthy sportsmen buy it, and many small builders can make a light aircraft, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Autocab
Between Planets, Robert Heinlein · 1951
A taxi that drives itself with no human at the controls.
built in the 2010s, about 60 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A cab with no driver takes the largest cost out of every taxi ride, which is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the cab buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Directional Ticket
Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1951
A travel pass that lights up to confirm the holder is heading the right way.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A pass that shows you are going the right way is a small help to travellers in a big station.
Who is paid. Transport operators would hand it out with the fare, and it is simple to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Martian Perambulator
Between Planets, Robert Heinlein · 1951
A powered mobility chair that carries people raised in weak gravity around a heavier world.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A powered chair for people raised in weak gravity serves a very small group.
Who is paid. Users buy it for themselves, and any maker of mobility chairs could build it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Movable Slideway
Between Planets, Robert Heinlein · 1951
An extendable moving walkway that reaches out to a docked ship so passengers ride off.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A walkway that reaches out to a docked ship is a convenience at ports.
Who is paid. Port operators buy it, and the firms that already build moving walkways and gangways collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Planetruck
The Slave Ship to Andrigo, Ross Rocklynne · 1951
An enormous hauler for moving loads across a world's surface.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A very large hauler lowers the cost of moving ore and earth at a few big sites.
Who is paid. Mining and building firms buy it, and the established makers of heavy vehicles collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Single Vehicle Tunnel
Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1951
A narrow bore that takes one car straight to its chosen stop.
built since, date unclear
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A bore that takes each car straight to its stop would lift traffic off the streets, which changes the cost of getting about a city.
Who is paid. Governments pay for a public way of this size, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Suction Mail Tube
The Illustrated Man, Ray Bradbury · 1951
A network of air-pressure pipes that shoots letters straight into people's houses.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Letters shot straight into the house arrive sooner, which is a convenience now that most messages need no paper.
Who is paid. I assume the public post pays for the pipes, and the engineering firms that already build for the post collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Automatic Pilot
The Space Merchants, Frederik Pohl (w/CM Kornbluth · 1952
A computerised system that flies an aircraft without the pilot's hands on the controls.
already existed before the story (the 1920s)
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A system that flies the aircraft changes the crew costs and the safety of the whole airline industry; the real thing still leaves pilots aboard, so the promise is larger than what was built.
Who is paid. Airlines and aircraft builders buy it, and the firms already trusted to supply flight controls collect because a newcomer cannot easily win safety approval.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Kite-Copter Car
The Kokod Warriors, Jack Vance · 1952
A viewing cabin hung beneath a rotor kite that keeps it aloft.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A cabin hung in the air for the view is a sightseeing ride.
Who is paid. Tour operators buy it, and it is simple enough for many builders to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Lunocycle (Lunar Bicycle)
The Rolling Stones, Robert Heinlein · 1952
A pedal cycle modified for riding across the Moon's surface.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A pedal cycle for the Moon serves only the few people who are there.
Who is paid. I assume settlers buy it for themselves, and any cycle maker could build it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Monoline
Big Planet, Jack Vance · 1952
A sail-powered vehicle that runs cross-country along a single track.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A sail car on a track goes only where the track runs and when the wind blows, so it suits a few places.
Who is paid. I assume a carrier runs the line, and the cars are simple enough for many builders to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Prism Window
The Space Merchants, Frederik Pohl (w/CM Kornbluth · 1952
An aircraft porthole with optics that let passengers see straight down to the land below.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A window that shows the land straight below is a treat for passengers.
Who is paid. Airlines pay for it through the aircraft, and the optics are simple to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Air-Propelled Train
Fahrenheit 451, Ray Bradbury · 1953
A quiet commuter railway whose cars are pushed along by air pressure.
built in the 1960s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It does the work commuter trains already do, only more quietly.
Who is paid. City governments pay for commuter lines, and the established railway builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Automatic Ticket Machine
Second Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1953
A kiosk that sells travel passes without a clerk.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Selling passes without a clerk saves a transport operator some wages and saves travellers a queue.
Who is paid. Transport operators buy it, and many firms can build a vending kiosk, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Automatobile
Sally, Isaac Asimov · 1953
A privately owned car that drives itself.
built in the 2010s, about 60 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A car that needs no driver gives back the hours spent at the wheel and opens car travel to people who cannot drive, which is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Owners buy it, and since several firms can build a driving system once it is shown to work, the car makers that already own factories, dealers and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Automatobus
Sally, Isaac Asimov · 1953
A driverless bus that carries passengers without a human at the wheel.
built in the 2010s, about 60 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A bus with no driver takes the largest running cost out of public transport.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the bus buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Autonomous Car Intercommunication
Sally, Isaac Asimov · 1953
Self-driving vehicles that constantly swap information with one another.
built in the 2010s, about 60 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Cars that share what they see are a little safer and smoother, which is a helpful feature rather than a product on its own.
Who is paid. Car makers pay to fit it, and it only works if every maker uses the same shared signals, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Planoforming
The Game of Rat and Dragon, Cordwainer Smith · 1953
A way of crossing between stars quicker than light.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Travel between stars faster than light would open trade and settlement on other worlds, which is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. I assume shipping lines and settlers pay, and once a ship of this kind flies others could be built, so the shipbuilders and carriers that already own yards, ports and fleets collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ring Road
Starman Jones, Robert Heinlein · 1953
A train that floats on magnets above its track.
built in the 1960s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Trains that float on magnets run fast and clean, which changes the cost of travel by rail.
Who is paid. Governments pay for a public way of this size, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robotaxi
Dugal Was A Spaceman, Joe Gibson · 1953
A hire car that drives itself with nobody at the wheel.
built in the 2020s, about 70 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A hired car with no driver to pay makes cab rides far cheaper, which would be an industry of its own.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the cab buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Self-Cleaning Autonomous Car
Sally, Isaac Asimov · 1953
A driverless car that washes and tidies itself.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A car that needs no driver gives back the hours spent at the wheel and opens car travel to people who cannot drive, which is worth an industry of its own; cleaning itself is a small extra.
Who is paid. Owners buy it, and since several firms can build a driving system once it is shown to work, the car makers that already own factories, dealers and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sub-C
The Impossible Planet, Philip K. Dick · 1953
A label for older spacecraft that cannot outpace light.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The name is only a label for the ordinary starship of its story, and ships that cross between stars slower than light would still open other worlds to settlement over long voyages, which is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. I assume shipping lines and settlers pay, and many yards could build such ships, so the shipbuilders and carriers that already own yards, ports and fleets collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Boat-Tree
The Houses of Iszm, Jack Vance · 1954
A tree engineered to bear pods large and buoyant enough to be used as boats.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A tree that grows boat hulls makes small boats cheaper, and small boats are a modest trade.
Who is paid. People buy the tree or its pods, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the nurseries and boat dealers that already hold stock and yards collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Central Guide-Beam
Shell Game, Philip K. Dick · 1954
A transmitted beam that both marks the ideal route through space and pushes craft along it.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A beam that both marks the route and pushes craft along would be a highway through space, changing the cost of space travel.
Who is paid. I assume a government builds a beam like this as a public work, and the space contractors that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Copter Harness
The Star Beast, Robert Heinlein · 1954
A strap-on rotor rig that lets one person fly.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A rig that lets a person fly wherever they please, working as promised, would be an industry of its own as the motorbike is; the description gives no limit on range or weather, so I assume there is no such limit.
Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Guide-Beam
Time Pawn, Philip K. Dick · 1954
A remote signal that steers a passenger vehicle along its route without a driver's input.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A road that does the driving would give every car on it the gains of driverless travel, but only where such roads are built.
Who is paid. Governments pay for roads, and the control gear is not hard to copy, so the road builders and signalling suppliers that already hold public works contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hopper
Lucky Starr and the Oceans of Venus, Isaac Asimov · 1954
A vehicle that bounds along on one leg, using spinning blades to stay aloft longer between hops.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A vehicle that bounds along on a lone leg suits rough ground where wheels fail, which is a niche.
Who is paid. Riders buy it, and many workshops could build it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Jiffi-scuttler
Prominent Author, Philip K. Dick · 1954
A machine that moves a person between two places almost instantly.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Instant travel between any places would change where most people live and work and replace nearly all other transport.
Who is paid. The carriers that run the network buy the machines and charge travellers for each trip, and since nothing described stops a second builder, the firms that already own sites, power and travellers' custom collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
One-Man Car
The Houses of Iszm, Jack Vance · 1954
A compact vehicle built to carry a single rider.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A car for a lone rider is a cheaper, smaller car, which is a niche beside the ordinary car.
Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Public Vehicle Tube
The Houses of Iszm, Jack Vance · 1954
Buried tunnels that carry people around the city in shared vehicles.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Tunnels with shared vehicles under a city carry crowds past the traffic, which changes the cost of getting about a city.
Who is paid. Governments pay for a public way of this size, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Cab Driver
A Present for Pat, Philip K. Dick · 1954
A mechanical chauffeur that drives a hired car and carries passengers around town.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A hired car with no driver to pay makes cab rides far cheaper, which would be an industry of its own.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the cab buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Aircab
Time Crime, H. Beam Piper · 1955
A self-flying taxi that carries passengers through the air.
built in the 2020s, about 70 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Hired flight across a city, working as promised, would be an industry of its own beside road cabs.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the air cab buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Autonomous Truck
Autofac, Philip K. Dick · 1955
A lorry that drives to its destination and unloads its cargo with no human aboard.
built in the 2010s, about 60 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Taking the driver out of road freight changes the costs of the whole haulage industry.
Who is paid. Haulage firms buy it, and since several firms can build a driving system once it is shown to work, the truck makers and hauliers that already own factories, fleets and customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Caterwheel
Sand Doom, Murray Leinster · 1955
A desert vehicle riding on broad, outward-angled balloon tyres.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A vehicle on broad soft tyres for desert sand serves the few who work in such places.
Who is paid. Firms working in deserts buy it, and wide tyres are easy to copy, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Commute Disk
The Chromium Fence, Philip K. Dick · 1955
A self-piloting flying craft that carries people to and from work.
built in the 2020s, about 70 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A craft that flies people to work by itself would be an industry of its own, though it mostly replaces trips people already make by car.
Who is paid. I assume commuters own it as they own a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Magnetic Grapple-Beams
Solar Lottery, Philip K. Dick · 1955
Close-range magnetic beams that steer airborne cars and set them neatly into parking spots.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Setting a flying car neatly into its space is a convenience for drivers.
Who is paid. I assume the owners of parking places fit the beams, and the firms that already equip such places collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Monocab
Earthlight, Arthur C. Clarke · 1955
A lone passenger car running on a single rail.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A small car on a lone rail serves a few routes in a city.
Who is paid. I assume a city pays for the line, and the builders that already hold transit contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ramsbotham Gate
Tunnel in the Sky, Robert Heinlein · 1955
A portal linking distant places so travellers step through without crossing the distance between.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. I assume the distant places are other worlds, as in the story and the other gate entries, and cheap instant passage between worlds would open new land and trade to a large share of humanity.
Who is paid. I assume carriers and traders pay to send people and goods through, which is why the payer differs from the booths for travellers within a world, and once a gate is built others could build more, so the large builders and carriers that already own the ports and the customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Taxi
Solar Lottery, Philip K. Dick · 1955
A hired car driven by a machine rather than a person.
built in the 2020s, about 70 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A hired car with no driver to pay makes cab rides far cheaper, which would be an industry of its own.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the cab buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bounce Tube
Double Star, Robert Heinlein · 1956
A tube that shoots people up and down between floors on a cushion of air.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It moves people between floors as lifts and stairs already do, so the gain is a convenience.
Who is paid. Building owners buy it, and the firms that already fit and service lifts collect because the machine itself is easy to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cider Press
Double Star, Robert Heinlein · 1956
A cushioned couch that helps unseasoned travellers withstand heavy acceleration.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A couch that eases heavy acceleration is needed only by the few who travel by rocket.
Who is paid. Space carriers buy it, and it is padding and springs any supplier could make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Electrotruck
The Corkscrew of Space, Poul Anderson · 1956
A battery-driven lorry that drives itself.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Taking the driver out of road freight changes the costs of the whole haulage industry.
Who is paid. Haulage firms buy it, and since several firms can build a driving system once it is shown to work, the truck makers and hauliers that already own factories, fleets and customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Jaunte Stage
The Stars My Destination, Alfred Bester · 1956
A cleared landing area kept free so people who teleport have somewhere safe to arrive.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A cleared place to arrive safely is useful only if people can teleport, and then it is a plain piece of floor.
Who is paid. Owners of buildings and public places provide it, and anyone can mark out a clear space, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Slug
Dragon in the Sea, Frank Herbert · 1956
A huge flexible tube towed beneath the sea to carry oil.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A towed tube is a cheaper way to move oil by sea on a few routes.
Who is paid. Oil shippers buy it, and many makers of flexible tanks could build it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vacutubes
Double Star, Robert Heinlein · 1956
Public transit that moves passenger capsules through tubes with most of the air pumped out.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Fast capsules in sealed tubes would rival trains and aircraft on their routes, which changes the cost of travel between cities.
Who is paid. Governments pay for a public way of this size, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dropshaft
Deeper Than the Darkness, Harlan Ellison · 1957
A lift shaft with no car, where people ride by controlling gravity or inertia.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Judged only as a lift, it moves people between floors as lifts already do; control of gravity itself would be worth far more.
Who is paid. Building owners buy it, and the firms that already fit and service lifts collect because the machine itself is easy to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Remote Control Taxicab
The Unreconstructed M, Philip K. Dick · 1957
A cab steered from afar by a human driver at a control station.
built in the 2010s, about 60 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Driving a cab from afar still needs a person for each cab, so it saves little.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the cab buys it and charges riders, and any workshop could build it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Roller
Shadow World, Clifford Simak · 1957
A small rugged two-seat vehicle for rough ground on other worlds.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A rugged small vehicle for other worlds serves only the few people who are there.
Who is paid. Operators of bases buy it, and any builder of space vehicles could make it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Storer-Gulls Wings
The Menace From Earth, Robert Heinlein · 1957
Lightweight strap-on wings that let Moon settlers fly under their own power inside large caverns.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Flying by muscle power inside lunar caverns is a sport for the few people who live there.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and many workshops could build it once it is shown to work, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tin Cabby (Flying Robotic Taxi)
Cities in Flight, James Blish · 1957
A driverless cab that flies passengers through the air.
built in the 2020s, about 70 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A cab that flies over the streets with no pilot to pay would be an industry of its own beside cabs and buses.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the air cab buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gyro Two-Wheeled Truck
The Sign of the Tiger, Alan Nourse (w/Meyer · 1958
A lorry balanced upright on only a pair of wheels by spinning gyroscopes.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Balancing on fewer wheels makes a vehicle narrower but does nothing an ordinary car cannot already do.
Who is paid. Because this one hauls freight, haulage firms buy it, and a gyroscope is easy to copy, so the truck makers that already own the factories and dealers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Photosight
The Sign of the Tiger, Alan Nourse (w/Meyer · 1958
A car sensor that tracks painted road markings so the vehicle can steer itself.
built in the 1980s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A car that needs no driver gives back the hours spent at the wheel and opens car travel to people who cannot drive, which is worth an industry of its own; the sensor that follows road markings is the heart of such a car.
Who is paid. Owners buy it, and since several firms can build a driving system once it is shown to work, the car makers that already own factories, dealers and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dust-Cruiser
A Fall of Moondust, Arthur C. Clarke · 1961
A larger lunar vessel that carries passengers across crater basins filled with fine dust.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A vehicle for crossing lunar dust serves only the few people who are on the Moon.
Who is paid. Operators of lunar bases and tours buy it, and any builder of space vehicles could make it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dust-Ski
A Fall of Moondust, Arthur C. Clarke · 1961
A light vehicle that skims quickly over loose powdery ground on the Moon.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A vehicle for crossing lunar dust serves only the few people who are on the Moon.
Who is paid. Operators of lunar bases and tours buy it, and any builder of space vehicles could make it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Parastatics
Return from the Stars, Stanislaw Lem · 1961
A protective field that keeps vehicle occupants from being hurt in collisions.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A field that keeps everyone in a vehicle unhurt in any collision does far more than the cushions and bags beside it, which only soften a crash, and ending injury on the roads would change the costs of motoring, insurance and emergency care.
Who is paid. Owners pay for it through the price of the vehicle, and I assume that once the field is shown to work other firms could build it, so the established vehicle makers fit it and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Transo
Time is the Simplest Thing, Clifford Simak · 1961
Instant transfer of goods and people between distant sites, underpinning a chain of trading outposts.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Sending things instantly across any distance would replace most shipping and haulage, which changes how most people are supplied and how most firms work; this one sends people too.
Who is paid. I assume carriers and traders pay to send people and goods through, and once a firm had built it others could, so the carriers and builders that already own the depots, the ports and the customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Alcohol-Sensing System
The Game Players of Titan, Philip K. Dick · 1963
A car system that detects a drunk driver and takes over driving.
built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It prevents some crashes, but it is a safety feature in a car rather than something people seek out.
Who is paid. Drivers pay for it with the car, often because the law requires it, and the car makers and their parts suppliers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Way Station
Way Station, Clifford Simak · 1963
A relay post for travellers moving instantly between stars.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Cheap instant passage between worlds would open new land and trade to a large share of humanity; I assume the relay post holds the machine that passes travellers on, so it is judged as the gate and not as a building.
Who is paid. I assume carriers and traders pay to send people and goods through, and once a gate is built others could build more, so the large builders and carriers that already own the ports and the customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Way Station Materializer
Way Station, Clifford Simak · 1963
Recreates travellers at distant stars from transmitted descriptions of their bodies.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Cheap instant passage between worlds would open new land and trade to a large share of humanity.
Who is paid. I assume carriers and traders pay to send people and goods through, and once a gate is built others could build more, so the large builders and carriers that already own the ports and the customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Auto Course-Finding Pilot
Clans of the Alphane Moon, Philip K. Dick · 1964
An autopilot that plans its own route as well as flying the craft.
built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A system that flies the aircraft changes the crew costs and the safety of the whole airline industry.
Who is paid. Airlines and aircraft builders buy it, and the firms already trusted to supply flight controls collect because a newcomer cannot easily win safety approval.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Jet-Powered Aquaplane
The Star King, Jack Vance · 1964
A very fast jet-driven boat that skims the water.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A very fast boat that skims the water is a thrill for those who can afford it.
Who is paid. Wealthy boat owners buy it, and many boatyards can build a fast boat, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Platform Flyer
The Star King, Jack Vance · 1964
A small aircraft for low-altitude hops.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The description limits it to low hops, so it is a small craft for short trips.
Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Single Seat Scooter
The Star King, Jack Vance · 1964
A rentable one-wheeled personal vehicle.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A narrow self-balancing vehicle is a handy way round town but does little that a small car or motorbike does not.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the scooters for hire buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Surface Slider
The Star King, Jack Vance · 1964
A small light craft for short surface trips.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The description limits it to short surface trips, so it is a small runabout.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and many workshops could build it once it is shown to work, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Autonomic Cab
The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965
A driverless taxi.
built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A cab with no driver takes the largest cost out of every taxi ride, which is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the cab buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Carryall
Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965
A heavy-lift flying wing that ferries mining vehicles.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A flying wing that lifts whole mining machines saves time at remote sites, which matters to a single trade.
Who is paid. Mining firms buy it, and the builders of heavy aircraft that already serve them collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ornithopter
Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965
An aircraft that flies by flapping its wings like a bird.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Flapping wings give an aircraft more agile flight, but it does the work aircraft and rotor craft already do.
Who is paid. Airlines and other operators pay for it through the aircraft, and the established aircraft builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Paracompass
Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965
A navigation compass that works from local magnetic irregularities.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A compass that reads local magnetic quirks is a backup way to find position.
Who is paid. Ship and aircraft operators buy it, and any instrument maker could build it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Thopter
Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965
Any aircraft that flies by beating its wings.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Flapping wings give an aircraft more agile flight, but it does the work aircraft and rotor craft already do.
Who is paid. Airlines and other operators pay for it through the aircraft, and the established aircraft builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Auto-Driven Auto (Spinner)
The Dream Master (He Who Shapes), Roger Zelazny · 1966
A car that drives itself to a chosen location.
built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A car that needs no driver gives back the hours spent at the wheel and opens car travel to people who cannot drive, which is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Owners buy it, and since several firms can build a driving system once it is shown to work, the car makers that already own factories, dealers and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Auto-Navigation
The Dream Master (He Who Shapes), Roger Zelazny · 1966
In-car route guidance shown on a dashboard screen.
built in the 1990s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Route guidance in the car saves wrong turns and time, which is a convenience.
Who is paid. Drivers pay for it with the car, and the car makers and the firms that already hold maps of every road collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Radson Skimmer
This Immortal, Roger Zelazny · 1966
A small low-flying craft for a few passengers.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A small craft that flies a few people low over the roads would be an industry of its own, though it mostly replaces trips people already make by car; I assume it is privately owned.
Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sand-Yacht (Land Schooner)
Cry Hope, Cry Fury!, J.G. Ballard · 1966
A wheeled land vessel driven by the wind in its sails.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A wheeled craft driven by sail is a sport and a way across a few open plains.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and many workshops could build it once it is shown to work, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Lift Chair
The Last Castle, Jack Vance · 1967
A seat carried aloft by large birds.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A seat lifted by trained birds is a novelty ride for a few people.
Who is paid. Riders pay for it, and anyone who can train the birds could offer it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Power-Wagon
The Last Castle, Jack Vance · 1967
A wagon pulled by an alien beast that runs on sugary syrup.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A wagon drawn by a beast does what a truck or tractor does, so it is a curiosity.
Who is paid. I assume carters buy it, and anyone who can breed and feed the beast could sell it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Skycycle
Handicap, Larry Niven · 1967
A motorcycle-style personal flying vehicle.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Free personal flight with no limit stated would be an industry of its own, replacing many trips now made by car.
Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flight Stick
The Flight of the Horse, Larry Niven · 1969
A minimal one-person flying craft reduced to its essentials.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A rig that lets a person fly wherever they please, working as promised, would be an industry of its own as the motorbike is; the description gives no limit on range or weather, so I assume there is no such limit.
Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gyrocar (Gyro)
The Ring, Piers Anthony (w/R. Margroff · 1969
A single-wheeled car kept upright by a spinning gyroscope.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Balancing on fewer wheels makes a vehicle narrower but does nothing an ordinary car cannot already do.
Who is paid. Drivers buy it, and a gyroscope is easy to copy, so the car makers that already own the factories and dealers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Jumpdoor
Whipping Star, Frank Herbert · 1969
A gateway into a passage for instant travel between distant stars.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. I assume passage through the gate is cheap and open to all as in the like entries, and instant passage between worlds would open new land and trade to a large share of humanity.
Who is paid. I assume carriers and traders pay to send people and goods through, and once a gate is built others could build more, so the large builders and carriers that already own the ports and the customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Rapid-Transit Hover Blimp
Galactic Pot-Healer, Philip K. Dick · 1969
A floating airship used as mass transit for commuters.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A lighter-than-air craft is slow and carries little beside aircraft and trains, so it stays a niche; this one carries commuters.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the airship line buys it and charges riders, and any workshop could build it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vortal Tube
Whipping Star, Frank Herbert · 1969
A passage of energy allowing instant travel across the galaxy.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Cheap instant passage between worlds would open new land and trade to a large share of humanity.
Who is paid. I assume carriers and traders pay to send people and goods through, and once a gate is built others could build more, so the large builders and carriers that already own the ports and the customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Crash Balloons
Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970
Airbags that inflate to cushion and restrain a rider in a crash.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Cushions that save riders in a crash matter greatly to those riders, but they are a safety feature inside a vehicle, as the other safety features here are.
Who is paid. Drivers pay for them with the car, and the parts suppliers that already sell to the car makers collect because the design is easy to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flycycle
Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970
A flying motorbike that also carries a kitchen and automated medical care.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A flying motorbike that carries its rider wherever they please would be an industry of its own as the motorbike is; the kitchen and medical kit aboard add comfort rather than reach.
Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flywheel Cycle
The Stainless Steel Rat's Revenge, Harry Harrison · 1970
A motorbike that runs on energy stored in a spinning wheel.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A motorbike that stores its energy in a spinning wheel is another way to power a bike, not a new use for it.
Who is paid. Riders buy it, and a flywheel is plain engineering many firms could copy, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Riding Robot
The Stainless Steel Rat's Revenge, Harry Harrison · 1970
A two-legged walking machine that carries one rider.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A walking mount for a lone rider goes where wheels cannot, which is a niche beside cars and bikes.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and many workshops could build it once it is shown to work, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sonic Fold
Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970
A force field that shapes airflow around a flying vehicle.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Shaping the air round a flying vehicle gives a smoother, quieter flight, which is a feature.
Who is paid. Airlines and other operators pay for it through the aircraft, and the established aircraft builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Squib
Our Friends From Frolix 8, Philip K. Dick · 1970
A basic small vehicle for getting around on land.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A basic small land vehicle is a cheap runabout, which I take to be a niche beside the ordinary car.
Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Stepping Discs
Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970
Open pads that teleport anyone standing on them to a paired pad.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Instant travel from place to place would end most journeys by road, rail and air and change where most people live and work.
Who is paid. The carriers that run the network buy the machines and charge travellers for each trip, and since nothing described stops a second builder, the firms that already own sites, power and travellers' custom collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Transmat
Tower of Glass, Robert Silverberg · 1970
A machine that moves people instantly from one place to another.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Instant travel from place to place would end most journeys by road, rail and air and change where most people live and work.
Who is paid. The carriers that run the network buy the machines and charge travellers for each trip, and since nothing described stops a second builder, the firms that already own sites, power and travellers' custom collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Displacement Booth
Flash Crowd, Larry Niven · 1972
A booth that moves people instantly to another location.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Instant travel between any places would change where most people live and work and replace nearly all other transport.
Who is paid. The carriers that run the network buy the machines and charge travellers for each trip, and since nothing described stops a second builder, the firms that already own sites, power and travellers' custom collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dragonfly Sky-Bike
Rendezvous With Rama, Arthur C. Clarke · 1972
A pedal-powered ultralight flying machine.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Flying on muscle alone is a sport for the fit, not a way of getting about.
Who is paid. Hobbyists buy it, and any maker of light frames and wings could build it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Go-Buggy
The Godmakers, Frank Herbert · 1972
A vehicle that travels only on the ground.
built since, date unclear
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. An ordinary ground vehicle, judged as the motor car, changed where most people live, work and shop.
Who is paid. Drivers buy it, and since any firm can design a car, the makers with the factories, dealers and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Collapsar Jump
The Forever War, Joe Haldeman · 1974
Instant travel between stars by way of collapsed stellar remnants.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. I assume the ships that use these natural shortcuts are what is sold, and reaching other stars would found an industry of its own, though few would make the trip.
Who is paid. Carriers and shipping firms buy the ships, as they do in the other star drive entries, and once the drive is known others could build it, so the established ship builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tramline
The Mote in God's Eye, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1974
A fixed route between stars along which instant jumps become possible.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A fixed route between stars is a feature of space in the story and not something built or sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so there is no buyer and no seller.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Automatic Control Car
Imperial Earth, Arthur C. Clarke · 1976
A car that drives itself.
built in the 1970s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A car that needs no driver gives back the hours spent at the wheel and opens car travel to people who cannot drive, which is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Owners buy it, and since several firms can build a driving system once it is shown to work, the car makers that already own factories, dealers and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bubble Car
A World Out of Time, Larry Niven · 1976
A self-driving car that hovers above the road.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A car that needs no driver gives back the hours spent at the wheel and is worth an industry of its own; hovering above the road adds little to that.
Who is paid. Owners buy it, and since several firms can build a driving system once it is shown to work, the car makers that already own factories, dealers and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dray-Fish
The Moon Moth, Jack Vance · 1976
Big fish trained to tow floating houses.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Trained fish that tow floating houses serve only people who live on the water.
Who is paid. Houseboat dwellers buy or hire them, and anyone who can train the fish can sell them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gravity-assisted Subway
A World Out of Time, Larry Niven · 1976
An underground train that falls through deep tunnels to cross between continents quickly.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Trains that fall through deep tunnels would cross long distances fast on little fuel, changing the costs of long-distance travel.
Who is paid. Governments pay for tunnels on this scale, and the tunnelling and railway builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Landspeeder
Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976
A fast hovering ground car that floats above flat terrain.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The description gives a hovering car held to flat ground and names no cancelling of gravity, so I judge it with the cushion craft as a niche beside the ordinary car.
Who is paid. Owners buy it for themselves, and many builders can make a craft that hovers low over flat ground, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sandcrawler
Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976
A giant tracked vehicle serving as a roving home on desert plains.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A giant roving home for desert plains suits a few people who live and work there.
Who is paid. I assume the people who live in it buy it, and any maker of heavy tracked vehicles could build it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Skyhook
West of Honor, Jerry Pournelle · 1976
A hybrid aircraft combining an airship with winged flight.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A lighter-than-air craft is slow and carries little beside aircraft and trains, so it stays a niche; adding wings helps it carry more.
Who is paid. Operators buy it, and airships are simple enough for many builders to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Grapple Tracks
The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977
Machinery that automatically stores and retrieves cars in a parking garage.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Machinery that stores and fetches cars fits more of them into a garage, which is a saving for the owner of the garage.
Who is paid. Garage owners buy it, and it is ordinary machinery many firms can build, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gravity Train
The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977
An underground railway that uses falling to gain speed.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Trains that fall through deep tunnels would cross long distances fast on little fuel, changing the costs of long-distance travel.
Who is paid. Governments pay for tunnels on this scale, and the tunnelling and railway builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
High Kavalaan Aircar
Dying of the Light, George RR Martin · 1977
An armed flying utility car used by a warrior culture in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A private vehicle that flies its owner over the roads would be an industry of its own, though it mostly replaces trips people already make by car.
Who is paid. I assume the warriors buy their own craft as others buy a car, and the weapons do not make it harder to copy, so the vehicle makers that already have factories and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Skitter
The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977
A two-seat car steered by a bar and stored in an automated garage.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A small car steered by a bar is a compact car, which is a niche beside the ordinary car.
Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sky-Scoot
Dying of the Light, George RR Martin · 1977
A small sheet of gravity-defying material a rider stands on to fly.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Free personal flight with no limit stated would be an industry of its own, replacing many trips now made by car.
Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Underground MagLev Train
Dream Park, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes · 1981
A levitating train running in low-pressure underground tubes to cut air resistance.
built in the 1980s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Fast capsules in sealed tubes would rival trains and aircraft on their routes, which changes the cost of travel between cities.
Who is paid. Governments pay for a public way of this size, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flying Car
Blade Runner, Ridley Scott · 1982
A vertical take-off police flying car.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Judged as the flying car of the story's city, which would be an industry of its own; the police craft described is only one use of it.
Who is paid. This one is a police craft, so the government pays, and the vehicle makers that already hold police fleet contracts collect because the craft can be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Trip-Box
Eye of Cat, Roger Zelazny · 1982
A booth that instantly moves a person to a distant place.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Instant travel from place to place would end most journeys by road, rail and air and change where most people live and work.
Who is paid. The carriers that run the network buy the machines and charge travellers for each trip, and since nothing described stops a second builder, the firms that already own sites, power and travellers' custom collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Smartcab
Cyberpunk!, Bruce Bethke · 1983
A driverless taxi called up from a handheld device.
built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A hired car with no driver to pay makes cab rides far cheaper, which would be an industry of its own.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the cab buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Speedcap
Millenium, John Varley · 1983
A passenger capsule that travels on a fast suborbital arc between distant points.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Crossing the world in a short arc above the air would be an industry of its own beside the airlines.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the rocket service buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bat Wings
Limits, Larry Niven · 1985
Wings strapped to a person for muscle-powered flying where gravity is weak.
built in the 1990s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Flying on muscle alone is a sport, and these wings work only where gravity is weak, so very few people could ever use them.
Who is paid. Hobbyists buy it, and any maker of light frames and wings could build it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Car Sound Tape
The Cat Who Walks Through Walls, Robert Heinlein · 1985
A recording played by a quiet vehicle to imitate engine noise.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Engine noise for a quiet vehicle is a small matter of taste or of warning people on foot.
Who is paid. Drivers pay for it, and a recording and a speaker can be made by anyone, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Millipede Train
Eon, Greg Bear · 1985
A train that travels without rails or any supporting guideway.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A train that needs no track saves the cost of laying it, but it is then close to a road convoy, so the gain is modest.
Who is paid. Hauliers and carriers buy it, and the established makers of heavy vehicles collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hushicopter
Fantastic Voyage II: Destination Brain, Isaac Asimov · 1987
A helicopter that flies almost without sound.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Silence would let helicopters work in places that now refuse them, but they would still be costly to fly, so I judge it a better helicopter rather than a new industry.
Who is paid. Operators and police forces buy it, and the established helicopter builders collect once the quieting method is known.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Smart Lanes
Nanotime, Bart Kosko · 1987
Roads that watch, steer and regulate the vehicles on them.
built in the 2000s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Roads that steer the cars on them would cut crashes and jams, which changes the cost of road travel.
Who is paid. Governments pay for the roads, and the builders and electronics firms that already hold road contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Transport Walkers
A Little Further Up The Fox..., George M. Ewing · 1987
Single-rider vehicles that walk on many legs.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A walking vehicle for a lone rider goes where wheels cannot, which is a niche beside cars and bikes.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and many workshops could build it once it is shown to work, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Air-Taxi
Prelude to Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1988
A self-flying cab that ferries passengers through the air.
built in the 2020s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Hired flight across a city, working as promised, would be an industry of its own beside road cabs.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the air cab buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hovercraft
Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988
A vehicle that rides on a layer of pressurised air.
already existed before the story (the 1950s)
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Riding on a cushion of air suits marsh, shallows and ice but is noisier and thirstier than wheels elsewhere, so it stays a niche.
Who is paid. Ferry and hire operators buy it, and many builders can make an air cushion craft, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
People-Mover
Wetware, Rudy Rucker · 1988
An outdoor fixed transit system where riders travel seated.
already existed before the story (the 1950s)
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A seated ride on a fixed outdoor route serves a few districts, airports and fairgrounds.
Who is paid. I assume a city or public body pays for the line, and the builders that already hold transit contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Farcaster
Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989
A doorway allowing cheap, instant passage between worlds around distant stars.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Cheap instant passage between worlds would open new land and trade to a large share of humanity.
Who is paid. I assume carriers and traders pay to send people and goods through, and once a gate is built others could build more, so the large builders and carriers that already own the ports and the customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hawking Mat
Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989
A patterned flying carpet woven with shielded fibres.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A flying carpet that carries its rider wherever they please, working as promised, would be an industry of its own as the motorbike is; the description gives no limit on range or weather, so I assume there is no such limit.
Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
General Bodies Tortoise
Sparrowhawk, Thomas A. Easton · 1990
A living vehicle bred from reptile genes and steered through embedded electronics to carry riders.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A living animal bred to carry riders does a car's job more slowly, so I judge it a curiosity.
Who is paid. People buy it as they would a car, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the breeders and vehicle dealers that already hold stock, workshops and showrooms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Magnus-Effect Ambulance
Earth, David Brin · 1990
A medical rescue aircraft kept aloft by spinning cylinders.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A rescue aircraft held up by spinning cylinders is another way to do what rescue aircraft already do.
Who is paid. Hospitals and rescue services buy it, and the established aircraft builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Roachster
Sparrowhawk, Thomas A. Easton · 1990
A living car grown from insect-like genes and driven through embedded control hardware.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A car that is grown and not built is a curiosity beside the ordinary car unless it is much cheaper, which the description does not say.
Who is paid. People buy it as they would a car, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the breeders and vehicle dealers that already hold stock, workshops and showrooms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Deliverator Car
Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992
A fast, armoured car used for time-pressured food delivery.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A fast armoured car for rushing food to the door is a costly way to do a job a scooter does.
Who is paid. Delivery firms buy it, and it is an ordinary car made faster and tougher, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hoverlimo
Steel Beach, John Varley · 1992
A hire vehicle riding on an air cushion, with a subservient onboard assistant.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Riding on a cushion of air suits marsh, shallows and ice but is noisier and thirstier than wheels elsewhere, so it stays a niche.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the hire car buys it and charges riders, and any workshop could build it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
MagnaPoon
Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992
A magnetic tether a skateboarder fires at a passing car to be towed along.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A tow from a passing car is a trick for a few daring riders.
Who is paid. Riders buy it, and a magnet on a line is simple to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Smartwheels
Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992
Wheels whose spokes extend and retract to smooth out rough ground.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Wheels that smooth out rough ground are a comfort on bad roads.
Who is paid. Operators of vehicles on rough ground buy them, and many wheel makers could build them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Antiturbulence Wings
Deep Eddy, Bruce Sterling · 1993
Aircraft wings that actively smooth out bumpy air for a gentler ride.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A smoother ride is a comfort for passengers and saves a little wear, which is a convenience.
Who is paid. Airlines pay for it through the aircraft, and the established aircraft builders fit it and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Escalladder
Crashlander, Larry Niven · 1994
A powered ladder that carries you upward while you stand still.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It moves people between floors as lifts and stairs already do, so the gain is a convenience.
Who is paid. Building owners buy it, and the firms that already fit and service lifts collect because the machine itself is easy to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flexible Car Map
Heavy Weather, Bruce Sterling · 1994
A bendable map display that pops out of a car's dashboard.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Route guidance in the car is a convenience, and a screen that bends and pops out adds only a little to it.
Who is paid. Drivers pay for it with the car, and the car makers and the firms that already hold maps of every road collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Smart Piston Spokes
Heavy Weather, Bruce Sterling · 1994
A vehicle that moves on sensing piston legs that adjust to rough ground.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Legs that feel the ground carry a vehicle over rough country, which is a niche.
Who is paid. Operators buy it for their work, and many builders could make it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Chevaline
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
A single-rider walking robot mount built in the form of a horse.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A robot horse for a lone rider is a pleasure mount and a way across rough ground, not everyday transport.
Who is paid. Riders buy it, and once walking machines work many firms could build them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Smart Bike
Distraction, Bruce Sterling · 1998
A motorbike with computer-assisted steering that keeps itself upright.
built in the 2010s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A motorbike that keeps itself upright is a safer motorbike, which is a feature.
Who is paid. Owners pay for it through the price of the vehicle, and the established vehicle makers fit it and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Face Seal
Starfish, Peter Watts · 1999
A sealed facial mask for diving far below the surface.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A sealed mask for very deep diving serves the few who work far below the surface.
Who is paid. Deep sea operators buy it, and it is specialist kit several suppliers could make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Beetle
Saturn's Race, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes) · 2000
An airship with a rigid protective outer shell.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A hard shell makes an airship tougher, but airships remain a niche for slow heavy loads and sightseeing.
Who is paid. Cargo and tour operators buy it, and a rigid shell is not hard to copy, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bubble
Saturn's Race, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes) · 2000
A pressurised lift that carries people between the surface and the sea floor.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A lift to the sea floor serves the few places where people work or holiday under the sea.
Who is paid. Undersea operators buy it, and the marine engineering firms that already build for them collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Interway
The Tels, Paul Black · 2003
A road network where computers steer and manage the traffic.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A road that does the driving would give every car on it the gains of driverless travel, but only where such roads are built.
Who is paid. Governments pay for roads, and the control gear is not hard to copy, so the road builders and signalling suppliers that already hold public works contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Traction City
Mortal Engines, Philip Reeve · 2003
Whole cities rebuilt as giant moving vehicles that roam the land.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Putting a whole city on wheels gains its people little beyond the power to move on, at great cost.
Who is paid. I assume the city itself pays, and the large engineering firms that already build for cities collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Traction City Gut
Mortal Engines, Philip Reeve · 2003
The processing hall inside a mobile city where captured towns are broken up for parts.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A hall where captured towns are broken up is a place in the story and not a thing anyone would buy.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so there is no buyer and no seller.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Perpetual Train
Iron Council, China Mieville · 2004
A huge train that builds its own railway ahead as it travels.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A train that lays its own track ahead saves the work of building the line first, which helps on a few new routes.
Who is paid. Railway builders buy it, and the established makers of railway machines collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Automated Taxi
Sagramanda, Alan Dean Foster · 2006
A cab that drives itself with no human at the wheel.
built in the 2010s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A cab with no driver takes the largest cost out of every taxi ride, which is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the cab buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Traffic Lane Discharger
Sagramanda, Alan Dean Foster · 2006
A road enforcement system that punishes drivers who dodge traffic controls, as imagined in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Punishing drivers who dodge the rules keeps traffic in order, which is a tool for the police.
Who is paid. Governments pay for road enforcement, and the firms that already supply road and police equipment collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cop Block
Quantico, Greg Bear · 2007
A tool letting police remotely stop a fleeing driver's motor.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Stopping a fleeing car from a distance makes chases safer, which serves police forces alone.
Who is paid. Police forces pay for it, and the firms that already supply police gear and car electronics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
AutoM8
Daemon, Daniel Suarez · 2009
An ordinary car driven from a distance by an operator instead of someone inside.
already existed before the story (the 1900s)
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Driving an ordinary car from afar still needs a person for each car, so it saves little and suits a few special jobs.
Who is paid. Fleet owners buy it, and remote controls are easy to fit to any car, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Digital Ink License Plate
Daemon, Daniel Suarez · 2009
An electronic vehicle registration plate that can switch what it shows instantly.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A plate that can change what it shows is a small convenience for lawful owners and mostly a help to those dodging the law.
Who is paid. Car owners buy it, and I assume it is sold freely as in the story, where any maker of small screens could build it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Forward Warehousing
Stealing Worlds, Karl Schroeder · 2019
Logistics that stores goods in parked private vehicles close to where buyers live.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Keeping goods in parked cars near buyers would speed some deliveries, but shops and depots already sit close to most people.
Who is paid. Retailers pay for it, and the delivery firms that already run the networks and hold the customers collect because the idea is easy to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Autofreighter
The Mountain in the Sea, Ray Naylor · 2022
A crewless cargo ship that sails itself while hauling goods for trade.
already existed before the story (the 2010s)
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Hauling goods with no crew aboard changes the costs of a whole freight industry.
Who is paid. Freight carriers buy it, and since the self-steering gear can be copied, the carriers and builders that already own the fleets and routes collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.