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Futures · expected

Expected in the 2060s

Dated forecasts that name this time, as their authors stated them, then the unbuilt ideas AI models placed here.

What authors forecast for the 2060s

  • Karnofsky puts roughly even odds on transformative AI arriving by 2060.

    Holden Karnofsky · by 2060 · about fifty percent · a ~50% chance it will be developed within 40 years (by 2060) · on the prediction ledger

    From The Most Important Century (consolidated series), Holden Karnofsky, 2021

  • Davidson thinks avoiding AGI by 2060 would probably require both a very high training bar and a narrow gap to lesser transformative systems.

    Tom Davidson · by 2060 · avoiding AGI by 2060 probably requires both large AGI training requirements

    From What a Compute-Centric Framework Says About Takeoff Speeds, Tom Davidson, 2023

  • Suleyman expects the next forty years to render physical things into digital form in far finer detail, and digital designs back into objects with new speed and ease.

    Mustafa Suleyman · by 2063

    From The Coming Wave, Mustafa Suleyman, 2023

Unbuilt ideas AI models place here

Space travel and habitats · 25
Illustration of Electric Gun (Mass Driver): An electromagnetic accelerator that hurls payload capsules fast enough to reach orbit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electric Gun (Mass Driver)

A Trip to Venus, John Munro · 1897

An electromagnetic accelerator that hurls payload capsules fast enough to reach orbit.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Flinging payloads to space without rockets would change the cost of the whole launch industry.

Who is paid. Firms with cargo to launch pay, and since others could build such a track or gun the gain goes to those who already own launch sites and power.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ships Propelled By Light Pressure: Spacecraft driven by a powerful beam of light aimed at them from a far-off station.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ships Propelled By Light Pressure

The Comet Doom, Edmond Hamilton · 1929

Spacecraft driven by a powerful beam of light aimed at them from a far-off station.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Pushing craft with a beam of light from a far-off station would let ships fly without carrying their own fuel.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for the push, and since others could build beam stations the gain goes to those who already own the sites and power plants.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Asteroid Space Flyer: A small solo spacecraft built for scouting and visiting asteroids.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Asteroid Space Flyer

The Death's Head Meteor, Neil R. Jones · 1930

A small solo spacecraft built for scouting and visiting asteroids.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A solo scouting craft serves prospectors, a niche within space mining.

Who is paid. Prospectors and mining firms buy it, and established small-craft builders could all make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spaceyacht: A private luxury craft that rich owners fly between planets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spaceyacht

The Sargasso of Space, Edmond Hamilton · 1931

A private luxury craft that rich owners fly between planets.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A private pleasure craft for space is a luxury for a few rich owners.

Who is paid. The description names private owners who buy it for themselves, and the yards that already build spacecraft could all make one.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Transparent Spherical Ship: A giant clear crystal ball enclosing a deck, used as a habitat or vessel in orbit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Transparent Spherical Ship

The Emperor of the Stars, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931

A giant clear crystal ball enclosing a deck, used as a habitat or vessel in orbit.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A clear ball enclosing a deck is judged as a vessel, since the description allows either a ship or a habitat; a working vessel founds a transport industry.

Who is paid. Carriers and expedition firms are assumed to buy it, and nothing in the description stops other yards building one, so established builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Spaceboat: A small, nimble craft for short hops around outer space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spaceboat

Waves of Compulsion, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1932

A small, nimble craft for short hops around outer space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A small craft for short hops is a useful extra for a ship or station, not an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ship and station operators buy it, assumed here, and existing spacecraft builders could all make something so simple.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Crystal Cylinder Ship: A see-through spacecraft whose hull is shaped like a long clear tube.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Crystal Cylinder Ship

The Three Suns of Ev, Edwin K. Sloat · 1933

A see-through spacecraft whose hull is shaped like a long clear tube.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A working vessel for travel between worlds would found a transport industry of its own.

Who is paid. Carriers and expedition firms buy ships, and many yards could build them once shown how, so established vehicle builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of New Moon Casino Satellite: A huge artificial moon used as a gambling resort that is easy to reach.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

New Moon Casino Satellite

One Against The Legion, Jack Williamson · 1939

A huge artificial moon used as a gambling resort that is easy to reach.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A gambling resort in orbit is a costly holiday for those who can afford the trip, a niche within leisure.

Who is paid. Visitors pay, and since another resort could be built the gain is assumed to go to the firms that already run casinos and hotels and own the ships that reach it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Tramp: A worn-out, slow cargo ship that drifts between ports in space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Tramp

The Invisible World, Ed Earl Repp · 1940

A worn-out, slow cargo ship that drifts between ports in space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A cargo ship, even an old slow one, is the working vessel of trade between worlds, a transport industry of its own.

Who is paid. Shippers and carriers buy and run such ships, and many yards could build them, so established builders and fleet owners collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Placers: Prospectors who sift loose deposits on other worlds using methods borrowed from terrestrial mining.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Placers

The Day We Celebrate, Nelson S. Bond · 1941

Prospectors who sift loose deposits on other worlds using methods borrowed from terrestrial mining.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a job, judged by the work it sells: sifting loose deposits by hand is small-scale digging beside the mines.

Who is paid. Mining firms or buyers of the ore pay for the work, assumed here, and anyone with a pan and the training can do it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Stratoyacht: A personal luxury vessel that can climb into orbit for recreation.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stratoyacht

Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943

A personal luxury vessel that can climb into orbit for recreation.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A private pleasure craft for space is a luxury for a few rich owners.

Who is paid. The description names private owners who buy it for themselves, and the yards that already build spacecraft could all make one.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Lunar Monorail: An elevated single-rail line carrying passengers across the Moon's surface.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lunar Monorail

Earthlight, Arthur C. Clarke · 1955

An elevated single-rail line carrying passengers across the Moon's surface.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A rail line across the Moon serves only those who live and work there, a niche.

Who is paid. No owner is named, so it is assumed a carrier buys it like other surface vehicles and sells seats, and established rail builders could all make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Scout-Base: A built spherical station serving as a forward post at the edge of explored space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Scout-Base

Diabologic, Eric Frank Russell · 1955

A built spherical station serving as a forward post at the edge of explored space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A forward post at the edge of explored space serves scouts and patrols, an outpost and not a town.

Who is paid. Exploring and guarding a frontier is assumed to be a government's work, and the established station builders would be paid.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sargasso Asteroid: A small world pieced together from bare asteroid rock and the hulks of lost spaceships.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sargasso Asteroid

The Stars My Destination, Alfred Bester · 1956

A small world pieced together from bare asteroid rock and the hulks of lost spaceships.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a makeshift refuge pieced together from rock and wrecks, assumed here to be made by castaways for themselves and never bought or sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Bats' Cave: A large lunar cave used by settlers to store air and as a place for human-powered flying.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bats' Cave

The Menace From Earth, Robert Heinlein · 1957

A large lunar cave used by settlers to store air and as a place for human-powered flying.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cave for storing air and for flying as a pastime is a local amenity for settlers.

Who is paid. Settlers pay to fly there, assumed here, and whoever already owns the cave collects since such caves are few.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Venus Cities Float In Atmosphere: Settlements that float high in the atmosphere of Venus.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Venus Cities Float In Atmosphere

Bread Overhead!, Fritz Leiber · 1958

Settlements that float high in the atmosphere of Venus.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Cities afloat in the air of another world would be places for many people to live, a building industry of its own.

Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Bubbleworld: A spinning cylindrical space habitat that simulates gravity.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bubbleworld

At the Bottom of a Hole, Larry Niven · 1966

A spinning cylindrical space habitat that simulates gravity.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A place for many people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.

Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Launching Laser: Powerful ground-based lasers that push spacecraft by beaming energy to them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Launching Laser

The Fourth Profession, Larry Niven · 1971

Powerful ground-based lasers that push spacecraft by beaming energy to them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Flinging or pushing payloads to space without big rockets would change the cost of the whole launch industry.

Who is paid. Firms with cargo to launch pay, and since others could build such works the gain goes to those who already own launch sites and power.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Needles (Chocolate and Vanilla): Gigantic inflatable towers reaching the thin upper edge of the atmosphere.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Needles (Chocolate and Vanilla)

Sundiver, David Brin · 1979

Gigantic inflatable towers reaching the thin upper edge of the atmosphere.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A fixed way up from the ground to the edge of space would slash the cost of reaching orbit for every firm that uses it.

Who is paid. Shippers are assumed to pay to launch from the top, and since another tower could be built once any had stood, the gain is assumed to go to the large builders and the holders of the few good ground sites.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of No-Ship: A starship cloaked by a special field so that no sensor can find it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

No-Ship

Heretics of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1984

A starship cloaked by a special field so that no sensor can find it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A starship no sensor can find would be prized above any other warship or courier.

Who is paid. Unlike other ships, hiding from every sensor serves armed forces most, so a government is assumed to pay, and once the field was known other yards could copy it, so established warship builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Orbital Retirement Hotel: A residence for elderly people placed in orbit close to the planet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Orbital Retirement Hotel

Contact, Carl Sagan · 1985

A residence for elderly people placed in orbit close to the planet.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A home in orbit for the elderly, where weighing little eases frail bodies, would serve the few who could afford it.

Who is paid. Residents or their families pay, and since others could build such a home the firms that already run care homes and own the ships collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Orbital Terminus: A passenger terminal located in space serving flights to low orbit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Orbital Terminus

Count Zero, William Gibson · 1986

A passenger terminal located in space serving flights to low orbit.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A harbour in space is needed by the traffic it serves, but the prize lies in the transport and the port is a part of it.

Who is paid. Carriers pay to use it, and since another port could be built the gain goes to those who already hold the good berths and the fleets that call there.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Starwisp: A tiny probe pushed to other stars by light on a thin sail.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Starwisp

Accelerando, Charles Stross · 2005

A tiny probe pushed to other stars by light on a thin sail.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tiny probe sent to another star brings back knowledge, with nothing to sell from it.

Who is paid. Nobody could be charged for such a mission, so a government pays the probe builders that already hold such contracts.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Timeout: The stretch of a soldier's life spent dormant while travelling between worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Timeout

War Dogs, Greg Bear · 2014

The stretch of a soldier's life spent dormant while travelling between worlds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a word for time spent asleep in transit, not a product; the sleep itself is judged elsewhere.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Centipede: A segmented vehicle made to crawl across icy, slushy lakes on a distant moon.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Centipede

Killing Titan, Greg Bear · 2015

A segmented vehicle made to crawl across icy, slushy lakes on a distant moon.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A vehicle for crossing another world serves a few expeditions, a niche.

Who is paid. No user is named, so it is assumed that firms working on other worlds buy it like other working gear, and established vehicle builders could all make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Computing, AI and virtual worlds · 5
Illustration of Brood Assembly: Thinking computers able to build more of themselves.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Brood Assembly

Cities in Flight, James Blish · 1957

Thinking computers able to build more of themselves.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Thinking machines that make more of themselves would multiply mental work without limit and change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms pay for the work done, and I assume whoever owns the first such machines also owns what they go on to build, which a latecomer cannot catch up with.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Holodeck: A room that fills itself with a lifelike simulated world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Holodeck

Encounter at Farpoint, David Gerrold · 1987

A room that fills itself with a lifelike simulated world.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Simulated surroundings that feel real would be an entertainment and training industry of its own.

Who is paid. People pay for it as they pay for games and films, and since the machinery can be copied the owners of the popular worlds and stories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cybrid: A flesh-and-blood body remotely inhabited by a machine intelligence.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cybrid

Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989

A flesh-and-blood body remotely inhabited by a machine intelligence.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A living body worn by a machine mind serves a narrow use, letting a machine go among people as one of them.

Who is paid. I assume the few owners of machine minds would pay, and once one such body had been grown and linked others could learn to do the same, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of TechnoCore: A secretive collective of machine minds with access to all of humanity's networked information.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

TechnoCore

Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989

A secretive collective of machine minds with access to all of humanity's networked information.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a hidden society of machine minds acting for itself, and not a product anyone can buy or use.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Memory Diamond: Data storage packed into the atomic lattice of a diamond.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Memory Diamond

Iron Sunrise, Charles Stross · 2004

Data storage packed into the atomic lattice of a diamond.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Storing data atom by atom would shrink the cost of keeping records for every firm that holds them.

Who is paid. Firms that store data buy it, the way of making it is assumed to be copied in time, and those who already own the costly factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Communication, media and displays · 2
Illustration of Distrans: Leaves temporary messages imprinted in the nervous systems of bats or birds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Distrans

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

Leaves temporary messages imprinted in the nervous systems of bats or birds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Hiding a message in a bat or bird is a tool for spies and smugglers.

Who is paid. Assuming spy services are the buyers, a government pays, the story treats it as a common device others could make, and the firms that already supply such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Digital Paper Pad: An extremely thin molecular display pad that stores and shows data.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Digital Paper Pad

KOP, Warren Hammond · 2007

An extremely thin molecular display pad that stores and shows data.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A paper-thin pad that stores and shows information is the handheld screen at the centre of personal devices, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Robotics and automation · 8
Illustration of Robot Mother: A machine that builds its own swarm of adaptable assistant machines.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Mother

The Mechanical Mice, Maurice G. Hugi · 1941

A machine that builds its own swarm of adaptable assistant machines.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that builds its own crew of helper machines could take over whole jobs, judged as large and not vast because it builds helpers and not copies of itself.

Who is paid. Firms buy it for their work, and since the design can be copied the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Cat: A living house cat whose body has been partly rebuilt with machine components.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Cat

The Cat and the King, Raymond F. Jones · 1946

A living house cat whose body has been partly rebuilt with machine components.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A house cat partly rebuilt with machine parts is judged as a pet kept alive or improved, a niche.

Who is paid. Pet owners pay, and once the work is shown many workshops and animal doctors could do it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of R. Daneel Olivaw: A robot indistinguishable from a person that works as a skilled police detective.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

R. Daneel Olivaw

Caves of Steel, Isaac Asimov · 1953

A robot indistinguishable from a person that works as a skilled police detective.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The description gives it police work, so it is judged as a machine detective that would change the cost of policing, though a robot no one can tell from a person could plainly do far more.

Who is paid. Governments pay, and the firms that already supply police and armies would build it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Inorganic Evolution: Machines that reshape their own bodies and group behaviour over generations to cope with shifting conditions.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Inorganic Evolution

The Invincible, Stanislaw Lem · 1954

Machines that reshape their own bodies and group behaviour over generations to cope with shifting conditions.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Machines that change themselves over generations with nobody in charge are a wild force in the story, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Nanomachine Swarm (Black Cloud): A drifting mass of minute machines that coordinate among themselves without any central controller.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nanomachine Swarm (Black Cloud)

The Invincible, Stanislaw Lem · 1954

A drifting mass of minute machines that coordinate among themselves without any central controller.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A mass of minute machines that work together with no controller is judged as a tool under its owner's direction, which the story doubts, and would open new kinds of work.

Who is paid. Firms buy them for their work, and as nothing says they cannot be copied the makers with precision factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Christmas Bush Motile Robot: A repair robot whose ever-finer branching limbs give it extremely delicate touch.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Christmas Bush Motile Robot

Rocheworld, Robert Forward · 1985

A repair robot whose ever-finer branching limbs give it extremely delicate touch.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A repair robot with an extremely fine touch could do delicate assembly and mending across many trades.

Who is paid. Firms buy it for fine work, and as others could copy the branching design the established machine makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Imp Personal Robot: A small branching-armed robot assistant for individual astronauts.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Imp Personal Robot

Rocheworld, Robert Forward · 1985

A small branching-armed robot assistant for individual astronauts.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A small branching-armed helper for each astronaut serves very few users.

Who is paid. Space agencies pay for their crews, and the firms that already build their equipment would supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Cells (Crystal-Shaped Modules): Tiny geometric modules that link up into robots of whatever shape is needed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Cells (Crystal-Shaped Modules)

Isaac Asimov's Odyssey : Robot City: Book1, Michael P. Kube-McDowell · 1987

Tiny geometric modules that link up into robots of whatever shape is needed.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Tiny modules that link into a robot of any shape would let one stock of parts do many jobs, changing how machines are built.

Who is paid. Firms buy them for their work, and as nothing says they cannot be copied the makers with precision factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Medicine, biotech and longevity · 15
Illustration of Artificial Womb: Grows a human from embryo to full term entirely outside a mother's body in a dedicated chamber.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Artificial Womb

Brave New World, Aldous Huxley · 1932

Grows a human from embryo to full term entirely outside a mother's body in a dedicated chamber.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Carrying a child outside the body would spare mothers the risks of pregnancy and open parenthood to people who cannot carry a child.

Who is paid. Would-be parents would pay, and other laboratories could copy the chamber once it worked, so established fertility clinics collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Nutrient Gelatin Tank: A tank of nourishing gel used to grow a new, enhanced kind of human.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nutrient Gelatin Tank

The Isotope Men, Nat Schachner · 1936

A tank of nourishing gel used to grow a new, enhanced kind of human.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Growing enhanced people would be worth an industry if allowed; assumed families are the buyers.

Who is paid. Families pay, and established fertility clinics collect because the tank could be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Brain-Case: A container that keeps a removed brain alive while it is moved.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Brain-Case

Murder in the Void, Edmond Hamilton · 1938

A container that keeps a removed brain alive while it is moved.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping a removed brain alive in transit serves a very rare kind of operation.

Who is paid. Hospitals would buy it, and makers of organ transport equipment could build it, so those firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Protoplast: A synthetic living substance hardier than natural cell matter.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Protoplast

Dawn of the Demigods, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1954

A synthetic living substance hardier than natural cell matter.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A hardier living material could serve many trades that grow or use living matter.

Who is paid. I assumed firms buy it as a working material; a living substance can be grown on from a sample, so established makers of biological supplies collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Bubblehead: Someone who has had a therapy that enlarges the front of the brain.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bubblehead

The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965

Someone who has had a therapy that enlarges the front of the brain.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the therapy that enlarges the front of the brain, which I assumed sharpens the mind and so would be wanted by a great many people.

Who is paid. People would pay for it themselves, and I assumed other clinics could learn the therapy, so established clinics collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sprung-Samser Treatment: A therapy that lengthens human lifespan.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sprung-Samser Treatment

This Immortal, Roger Zelazny · 1966

A therapy that lengthens human lifespan.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A longer life meets about the deepest need there is, and nearly everyone alive would want it.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and I assumed it is protected like a new medicine, so its maker keeps much of the gain.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sub-microscopic Medical Robots: Microscopic machines that patrol the blood and destroy germs.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sub-microscopic Medical Robots

These Savage Futurians, Philip E. High · 1967

Microscopic machines that patrol the blood and destroy germs.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Machines in the blood that clear out germs would spare nearly everyone from infectious illness.

Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and unlike a single protected medicine a machine can be built another way by rivals, so established drug and device makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ghola: A person regrown from a dead individual's preserved cells.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ghola

Dune Messiah, Frank Herbert · 1969

A person regrown from a dead individual's preserved cells.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the regrowing of a dead person from kept cells, which many bereaved families would pay dearly for.

Who is paid. I assumed families pay and that other laboratories could learn the method once it worked, so established fertility and tissue laboratories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Physiognomic Template: A technique for reshaping one's facial features whenever desired.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Physiognomic Template

Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A technique for reshaping one's facial features whenever desired.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Changing your face at will would be worth a large part of the beauty trade.

Who is paid. People pay, and established cosmetic clinics and brands collect since the method can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Intellectual Cell: An engineered immune cell granted memory, reasoning and the ability to communicate.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Intellectual Cell

Blood Music, Greg Bear · 1984

An engineered immune cell granted memory, reasoning and the ability to communicate.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Body cells that can think and talk to each other would be a new kind of medicine and of computing, if they stayed under control.

Who is paid. I assumed drug firms and laboratories buy them; a living cell multiplies, so anyone with a sample could grow more, and established drug makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Eloi: A class of people whose lifespans have been stretched by medical treatments.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Eloi

Queen of Angels, Greg Bear · 1990

A class of people whose lifespans have been stretched by medical treatments.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the treatment that stretches life, and holding off old age is about the deepest need there is.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and I assumed the treatments are new medicines, which are protected from copying for a long while, so their maker keeps much of the gain.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Readout Skin: Skin modified to show text and images while looking natural otherwise.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Readout Skin

Steel Beach, John Varley · 1992

Skin modified to show text and images while looking natural otherwise.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Skin that shows pictures and words is a novelty for a healthy body, not a need.

Who is paid. People would pay to have it done, and several clinics and device makers could offer it, so established ones collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Diveskin: A dive suit plus body modifications that let people work at crushing ocean depths.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Diveskin

Starfish, Peter Watts · 1999

A dive suit plus body modifications that let people work at crushing ocean depths.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Working at crushing depths serves a few deep-sea trades.

Who is paid. Firms working on the sea floor would buy it for their crews, and makers of diving gear could build it, so those firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Neuroinduction Field: A field that holds a patient motionless by acting on the nervous system.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Neuroinduction Field

Starfish, Peter Watts · 1999

A field that holds a patient motionless by acting on the nervous system.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Holding a patient still without drugs is a handy tool for hospitals.

Who is paid. Hospitals pay, and makers of medical equipment collect since the device can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Tuned-Laser Decontamination: A light-based treatment that wipes out unwanted biological molecules inside a person.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tuned-Laser Decontamination

Hybrids (Neanderthal Parallax), Robert J. Sawyer · 2003

A light-based treatment that wipes out unwanted biological molecules inside a person.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Clearing germs and other unwanted matter from inside a person with light would replace many medicines and change how infection is treated.

Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and border posts buy the equipment; other makers could copy it once it worked, so established medical equipment firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Mind and neurotechnology · 30
Illustration of Psycho-Phone: Captures a person's thoughts and replays them later.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Psycho-Phone

A Biological Experiment, David H. Keller · 1928

Captures a person's thoughts and replays them later.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping your own thoughts to play back later is a notebook that needs no writing, a convenience.

Who is paid. The user records their own thoughts, so people would buy it for themselves, and many makers could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hypnotelevisor: A headset that reads what a person remembers and shows those recalled scenes as pictures on a visor screen.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hypnotelevisor

Buck Rogers, 2430 AD, Philip Nowlan (w/D. Calkins · 1929

A headset that reads what a person remembers and shows those recalled scenes as pictures on a visor screen.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Showing others what you remember or picture is a new kind of camera, a pleasure and a keepsake rather than a need.

Who is paid. Unlike the probes used on unwilling subjects, I assumed this headset is worn by a willing person to show their own recollections, so ordinary people would buy it, and once one maker had it others could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Brain Rejuvenation: Selectively wiping unneeded memories to free the mind for fresh learning.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Brain Rejuvenation

The Message From Space, David M. Speaker · 1930

Selectively wiping unneeded memories to free the mind for fresh learning.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Removing chosen memories would be worth an industry; here the aim is room for fresh learning rather than easing pain, which the story takes on trust.

Who is paid. Patients would pay, the method could be copied once known, and the clinics and medicine firms already trusted with such care would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mechanical Thought Transformers: Equipment that speeds the transfer of thoughts from one mind to another.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mechanical Thought Transformers

The Conquest of Gola, L.F. Stone · 1931

Equipment that speeds the transfer of thoughts from one mind to another.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Passing thoughts from mind to mind faster is a new way to talk, and speech and telephones already do the job for nearly everyone.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would buy it for themselves, and once one maker had it others could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Hypomatrin

The Confession of Dr. DeKalb, Stanton A. Coblentz · 1934

A drug given into the spine numbs the patient while doctors reshape character and temperament.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Reshaping character and temperament on request would treat troubles that no medicine now reaches.

Who is paid. Patients would pay, the drug could be copied, and the hospitals and medicine firms already doing such work would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Dream-Adventures: Entertainment experiences fed straight into the sleeping mind, rivalling cinema as popular leisure.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dream-Adventures

Doom Over Venus, Edmond Hamilton · 1940

Entertainment experiences fed straight into the sleeping mind, rivalling cinema as popular leisure.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Stories lived as experience would rival film and games as popular leisure, as the story promises.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay for each experience, the machine could be copied, and the studios that own the stories and the names people know would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Dream-House: A venue where customers have vivid adventure dreams planted in their heads.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dream-House

Doom Over Venus, Edmond Hamilton · 1940

A venue where customers have vivid adventure dreams planted in their heads.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. This is the venue rather than the machine, but it sells the same thing: dreamed adventures that rival film as popular leisure.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay for each experience, the machine could be copied, and the studios that own the stories and the names people know would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Dream-Machine: A machine that broadcasts identical mass-produced dreams into sleepers' heads.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dream-Machine

Doom Over Venus, Edmond Hamilton · 1940

A machine that broadcasts identical mass-produced dreams into sleepers' heads.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Stories lived as experience would rival film and games as popular leisure, as the story promises.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay for each experience, the machine could be copied, and the studios that own the stories and the names people know would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Improve Memory: Treatment that helps very long-lived people organise and understand what they remember.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Improve Memory

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

Treatment that helps very long-lived people organise and understand what they remember.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Sorting the memories of a very long life only matters to people who live that long, a niche unless long life comes too.

Who is paid. The long-lived would pay for it themselves, and it is a method any trained person could offer, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mixed Men: People who are largely human but carry an added mechanical brain alongside their own.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mixed Men

The Storm, A.E. van Vogt · 1943

People who are largely human but carry an added mechanical brain alongside their own.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An added machine brain working beside the natural one would be an industry of its own, though the description does not say what the extra brain does.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and since the implant could be copied the firms that already run the networks and do the surgery would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Brain Erasure: Removing chosen memories from someone's brain with electric pulses.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Brain Erasure

The Knowledge Machine, Edmond Hamilton · 1948

Removing chosen memories from someone's brain with electric pulses.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Removing chosen memories would treat trauma and grief for a great many people, worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Patients would pay, the method could be copied once known, and the clinics and medicine firms already trusted with such care would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Electro-Education: Teaching people by stimulating their brains with electricity.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electro-Education

The Knowledge Machine, Edmond Hamilton · 1948

Teaching people by stimulating their brains with electricity.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Putting knowledge straight into the brain would replace years of schooling and training for most people.

Who is paid. Families and learners would pay for it themselves, and once one firm had built the gear others could copy it and many could write the lessons, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Learning-Cap: A helmet that feeds knowledge into the brain through electrical stimulation.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Learning-Cap

The Knowledge Machine, Edmond Hamilton · 1948

A helmet that feeds knowledge into the brain through electrical stimulation.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Putting knowledge straight into the brain would replace years of schooling and training for most people.

Who is paid. Families and learners would pay for it themselves, and once one firm had built the gear others could copy it and many could write the lessons, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Zag House: A service that places chosen dreams into a sleeper's mind.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Zag House

First He Died (Time and Again), Clifford Simak · 1951

A service that places chosen dreams into a sleeper's mind.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Having chosen dreams placed in your sleep would be an entertainment industry of its own.

Who is paid. Customers would pay for each dream, and since the method could be copied the owners of the stories and of the venues people already visit would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hypnoteleset: A machine that gives the refreshment of a full night's rest in a short session.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hypnoteleset

The Space Merchants, Frederik Pohl (w/CM Kornbluth · 1952

A machine that gives the refreshment of a full night's rest in a short session.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A full night's rest in a short session would hand nearly everyone hours of extra waking life each day.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would buy it for themselves, and once one firm had built it others could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Menslator: A translator that reads the picture in a speaker's head and renders its meaning for the listener.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Menslator

Troubled Star, George O. Smith · 1952

A translator that reads the picture in a speaker's head and renders its meaning for the listener.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Understanding any speaker without learning the language would remove a cost from trade, travel and work everywhere.

Who is paid. Travellers and firms alike would buy it, and I assumed that once thought can be read at all a translator is easy to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Psychic Probe: A machine that extracts honest answers directly from someone's brain.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Psychic Probe

Foundation and Empire, Isaac Asimov · 1952

A machine that extracts honest answers directly from someone's brain.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Drawing true answers straight from a brain would reshape police work, courts and spying.

Who is paid. It is done to a subject, so though banned in the story it is judged as bought by a state: the state would pay for it as an interrogation tool, and since it could be copied the firms that already supply police and security services would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Visi-Sonor: A musical instrument that plays sights, sounds and feelings straight into the listener's brain.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Visi-Sonor

Foundation and Empire, Isaac Asimov · 1952

A musical instrument that plays sights, sounds and feelings straight into the listener's brain.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An instrument that plays sights and feelings into the brain would found a new kind of show.

Who is paid. Audiences would pay to attend or own it, and since the instrument could be copied the known performers and the halls and channels that carry them would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Rex Regenerator (Mechanotherapist): A home treatment machine meant to cure the urge to kill.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rex Regenerator (Mechanotherapist)

Bad Medicine, Robert Sheckley · 1956

A home treatment machine meant to cure the urge to kill.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Very few people have an urge to kill and seek a cure for it, so this is a niche.

Who is paid. It is sold as a home machine, so households pay, and many makers could copy it; it is small because the cure is so narrow, unlike a machine for common troubles.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Metamen: People whose living brains have been moved into entirely mechanical bodies.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Metamen

The Mechanical Monarch, E.C. Tubb · 1958

People whose living brains have been moved into entirely mechanical bodies.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A mechanical body for a living brain would be an industry of its own for the dying and the badly injured.

Who is paid. People would pay to go on living this way, and the hospitals and makers of bodies that already have the surgeons and workshops would collect, since the method itself can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mind Destroyer: A fictional mind-erasing procedure portrayed as a cruel tool of control.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mind Destroyer

A Planet Named Shayol, Cordwainer Smith · 1961

A fictional mind-erasing procedure portrayed as a cruel tool of control.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.

Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Femfatalatron: A machine that cures a person of romantic obsession with someone.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Femfatalatron

The Cyberiad: Fables for the Cybernetic Age, Stanislaw Lem · 1965

A machine that cures a person of romantic obsession with someone.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cure for one unhappy love is a comfort for a few.

Who is paid. The lovesick would pay for it themselves, and once the machine worked others could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Dream Console

The Dream Master (He Who Shapes), Roger Zelazny · 1966

Lets a therapist shape and enter a patient's dreams.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A therapist who can enter and shape dreams could treat troubles of the mind that talk alone does not reach.

Who is paid. Clinics and therapists would buy the machine, and the makers of medical equipment who already sell to them could copy it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Erased Memory: A procedure that removes chosen memories from someone's mind.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Erased Memory

We Can Remember It For You Wholesale, Philip K. Dick · 1966

A procedure that removes chosen memories from someone's mind.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Removing chosen memories would treat trauma and grief for a great many people, worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Patients would pay, the method could be copied once known, and the clinics and medicine firms already trusted with such care would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cyborg Collar: A fictional neck device used to compel a person's behaviour during working hours.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cyborg Collar

A Specter is Haunting Texas, Fritz Leiber · 1968

A fictional neck device used to compel a person's behaviour during working hours.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.

Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Teep Rod: A handheld tool that reads a person's thoughts.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Teep Rod

Galactic Pot-Healer, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A handheld tool that reads a person's thoughts.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A tool that reads the thoughts of whoever it is pointed at would change how crimes are solved and secrets are kept.

Who is paid. The holder reads another person, so I judged it as a probe and assumed police and spy services are the main buyers, though private buyers would want it too; a handheld tool could be copied, so the firms that already supply those services would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Jack In: Linking one's nervous system directly into a computer-made virtual world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Jack In

Tower of Glass, Robert Silverberg · 1970

Linking one's nervous system directly into a computer-made virtual world.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A link from the nerves into made-up worlds would do what screens and games do now but far more fully, worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay for the implant and the service, and the firms that already make devices and run networks could copy it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tasp: A fictional handheld device that triggers pleasure in another person's brain from afar.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tasp

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

A fictional handheld device that triggers pleasure in another person's brain from afar.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Triggering pleasure in someone else from afar is a way of swaying or taming a few people, not a treat they chose.

Who is paid. It is aimed at another person, so I judge it as a tool of control; though banned in the story a state would buy it, and its usual suppliers would collect because it could be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of SimStim: Playing one person's recorded or live sensations straight into another person's nervous system.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

SimStim

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

Playing one person's recorded or live sensations straight into another person's nervous system.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Feeling another person's sensations as your own would be an entertainment industry of its own.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and since the method could be copied the owners of the stories, stars and channels people already follow would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Focusing: An infectious microorganism that sharpens the concentration of whoever carries it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Focusing

A Deepness in the Sky, Vernor Vinge · 1999

An infectious microorganism that sharpens the concentration of whoever carries it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Sharper concentration would lift the work of anyone who uses their head; the story bans it because it is forced on people, but I judged it as if taken by choice.

Who is paid. I assumed workers and students take it by choice, and a microbe can be grown by anyone once it exists, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Transport and mobility · 2
Illustration of Geopeller: A compact engine driven by nuclear energy that pushes vehicles along.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Geopeller

One Against The Legion, Jack Williamson · 1939

A compact engine driven by nuclear energy that pushes vehicles along.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A compact nuclear engine would free vehicles from fuel stops and change the running costs of transport.

Who is paid. Vehicle and ship builders buy it, but only the few firms a government trusts with nuclear fuel could make it, so those permit holders keep the gain.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Bee Wing: An aircraft on the red planet that flies by beating its wings like an insect.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bee Wing

Slacker's Paradise, Malcolm Jameson · 1941

An aircraft on the red planet that flies by beating its wings like an insect.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A flapping aircraft for the thin air of another planet serves only the few people living there.

Who is paid. Settlements and their suppliers buy it, and any aircraft workshop there could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Energy and power · 4
Illustration of Pocket Nucleo-Bulb: A tiny torch that draws its power from an atomic source.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pocket Nucleo-Bulb

Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1951

A tiny torch that draws its power from an atomic source.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A torch that never needs new batteries is a convenience, and being only a torch it is worth less than the other small atomic sources.

Who is paid. People buy it as they would any torch, and assuming the tiny source is sold as freely as the gadget, any workshop could make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Fusion Sunlight Tube: A fusion-powered light running along the axis of a spinning space habitat.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fusion Sunlight Tube

At the Bottom of a Hole, Larry Niven · 1966

A fusion-powered light running along the axis of a spinning space habitat.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sun-like lamp for one spinning space habitat is a niche, however vital to those inside.

Who is paid. Whoever funds the habitat pays, assumed here to be a government, and the firms that already build such plants collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Shipstone: A compact factory-made power cell holding an enormous store of energy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Shipstone

Friday, Robert Heinlein · 1982

A compact factory-made power cell holding an enormous store of energy.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A cheap compact cell holding an enormous store of energy would change how nearly everything is powered and moved.

Who is paid. Firms of every kind buy it, assumed here to be the largest buyers, and in the story the maker keeps the method secret so nobody can copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spotlight of Heat (Orbital Microwaves): A satellite array beaming microwave energy down to warm a chosen patch of ground.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spotlight of Heat (Orbital Microwaves)

Fallen Angels, Larry Niven w/Pournelle, Flynn · 1991

A satellite array beaming microwave energy down to warm a chosen patch of ground.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Warming one chosen patch of ground from orbit helps only the few people on that patch.

Who is paid. A government pays because the warmth cannot be charged for one by one, and whoever built the satellites controls them.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Materials, manufacturing and construction · 7
Illustration of Slow Glass Rod: A clear rod in which light moves so sluggishly that it stays held inside.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Slow Glass Rod

The Exhalted, L. Sprague de Camp · 1940

A clear rod in which light moves so sluggishly that it stays held inside.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A rod that holds light inside has no use named, so I assumed it serves as a store of light or a curiosity.

Who is paid. Instrument and lighting makers might buy it, and nothing in the description stops many glass firms making it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Optical-Effect Suit: A garment that renders the wearer invisible.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Optical-Effect Suit

A Plague of Demons, Keith Laumer · 1965

A garment that renders the wearer invisible.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A suit that makes its wearer invisible would be prized by every army and spy service.

Who is paid. Governments pay, assuming the public may not buy it, and the firms that already hold military supply contracts make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Shadow Square Wire: An extremely thin, light and strong filament.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Shadow Square Wire

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

An extremely thin, light and strong filament.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An extremely thin, light and strong filament would change the cost of cables, bridges, aircraft and lifting things to space.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of 1D Diamond Crystal: An unbroken diamond thread only a few atoms across, akin to a carbon nanotube.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

1D Diamond Crystal

The Fountains of Paradise, Arthur C. Clarke · 1978

An unbroken diamond thread only a few atoms across, akin to a carbon nanotube.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A thread far stronger than steel for its weight would change the cost of cables, bridges, aircraft and lifting things to space.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Hyperfilament: An ultra-strong ribbon or thread with enormous resistance to pulling forces.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hyperfilament

The Fountains of Paradise, Arthur C. Clarke · 1978

An ultra-strong ribbon or thread with enormous resistance to pulling forces.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A thread with enormous pulling strength would change the cost of cables, bridges, aircraft and lifting things to space.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Superacid: Programmable solvents that dissolve chosen substances while leaving others untouched.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Superacid

Nanotime, Bart Kosko · 1987

Programmable solvents that dissolve chosen substances while leaving others untouched.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Solvents that dissolve only chosen substances would change mining, recycling and chemical making.

Who is paid. Industrial firms buy them, and once the method is known the big chemical firms with plants and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Filter Wheel: A molecular sorting device that pulls one chosen compound out of a fluid in pure form.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Filter Wheel

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

A molecular sorting device that pulls one chosen compound out of a fluid in pure form.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Pulling any chosen compound out of a fluid in pure form would change the cost of clean water, chemicals and mining.

Who is paid. Chemical, water and mining firms buy it, and once it can be copied the makers of process equipment who already supply them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Weapons and warfare · 8
Illustration of Motor Torpedo: A self-propelled explosive projectile on Earth that is pushed along by streams of charged particles.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Motor Torpedo

The Prince of Space, Jack Williamson · 1931

A self-propelled explosive projectile on Earth that is pushed along by streams of charged particles.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Self-propelled and guided explosives became the main heavy weapon of modern forces, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and since the idea is easy to copy once shown, the arms firms that already hold the supply contracts and factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Magnetic Flame Gun: A weapon that fires a beam of positively charged atomic nuclei.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magnetic Flame Gun

Roamer of the Stars, Clyde Wilson · 1938

A weapon that fires a beam of positively charged atomic nuclei.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Assuming a soldier carries it, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Marines: Soldiers stationed and fighting in space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Marines

Misfit, Robert Heinlein · 1939

Soldiers stationed and fighting in space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Soldiers posted in space are people and not a thing anyone builds and sells, unlike the fleets and machines judged elsewhere.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold as such, since its ships, suits and arms are bought and counted as separate things, so there is no payer and no seller.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Meteor Blasters: Beams mounted on a spacecraft that clear rocks and debris out of its flight path.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Meteor Blasters

First Contact, Murray Leinster · 1945

Beams mounted on a spacecraft that clear rocks and debris out of its flight path.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Beams that clear rocks from a ship's path are a safety fitting, needed only once many ships fly fast through space.

Who is paid. Assuming most ships are run by carriers, they pay, and the shipbuilders who fit out the craft would supply the beams and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Toaster: A fictional hand-held energy weapon carried in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Toaster

Accidental Flight, W.F. Wallace · 1952

A fictional hand-held energy weapon carried in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A beam weapon carried in the hand does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Boulder: A fictional assassination device aimed at one specific person, used in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Boulder

Cantata 140, Philip K. Dick · 1964

A fictional assassination device aimed at one specific person, used in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A weapon that hunts one named person serves a narrow trade in killing chosen targets.

Who is paid. Secret services pay, and being strange does not make it hard to copy, so once one is built the arms makers that already supply them can make it too and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cephalotropic Dart: A fictional short-range weapon that seeks one individual, used in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cephalotropic Dart

Lies, Inc., Philip K. Dick · 1964

A fictional short-range weapon that seeks one individual, used in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A weapon that hunts one named person serves a narrow trade in killing chosen targets.

Who is paid. Secret services pay, and being strange does not make it hard to copy, so once one is built the arms makers that already supply them can make it too and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Knife Missile: A fictional small flying bladed drone weapon used for protection and combat in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Knife Missile

Use of Weapons, Iain M Banks · 1990

A fictional small flying bladed drone weapon used for protection and combat in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that find and attack targets by themselves would change how armies and police forces are staffed and equipped.

Who is paid. Governments pay, and since the parts are widely made and the designs easy to copy, the arms firms with the standing contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Surveillance, identity and control · 2
Illustration of Psychoprobe: A device for pulling the truth out of a person's mind.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Psychoprobe

Satellite Five, Arthur K. Barnes · 1938

A device for pulling the truth out of a person's mind.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Pulling the truth from a mind would change questioning, courts and spying, as the other mind readers would.

Who is paid. Spy and police services pay, and once made it can be copied, so the firms already supplying such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of EEG-Gram Projection: Remote sensing of a person's distinctive brain signature to identify them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

EEG-Gram Projection

Flow My Tears, The Policeman Said, Philip K. Dick · 1974

Remote sensing of a person's distinctive brain signature to identify them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Finding any chosen person wherever they are would change police work, rescue and manhunts enough to be an industry.

Who is paid. Police and security services pay, and once shown to work others could build it, so existing police suppliers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Food, agriculture and environment · 2
Illustration of Butcher Vegetable: A crop plant that grows steak-like protein.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Butcher Vegetable

Time is the Simplest Thing, Clifford Simak · 1961

A crop plant that grows steak-like protein.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A crop that grows meat would cut the cost of meat across the whole trade.

Who is paid. Growers buy the plants, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the seed houses and nurseries that already hold stock, land and sales channels collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Week Trees: Engineered miniature trees that mature in days rather than generations.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Week Trees

Wetware, Rudy Rucker · 1988

Engineered miniature trees that mature in days rather than generations.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Tiny trees that mature in days are an ornament; too small for timber, so I assumed they are bought for looks.

Who is paid. People buy them for the home or garden, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the nurseries and garden shops that already hold stock and shelves collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Home and everyday life · 4
Illustration of Chairdog: A living, partly aware chair that molds itself to whoever sits in it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chairdog

The Tactful Saboteur, Frank Herbert · 1964

A living, partly aware chair that molds itself to whoever sits in it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A living chair that shapes itself to the sitter is a comfort and a curiosity.

Who is paid. People buy it for the home, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the breeders and furnishing shops that already hold stock and showrooms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Artificial Gill Outfit: A diving suit that extracts breathable oxygen from the surrounding water.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Artificial Gill Outfit

We Can Remember It For You Wholesale, Philip K. Dick · 1966

A diving suit that extracts breathable oxygen from the surrounding water.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Breathing underwater without tanks would delight divers, but divers are a niche.

Who is paid. Divers buy it for themselves, and I assume that once the material that draws air from water is known, other gear makers could make it too.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cannibal Grass: A bioengineered lawn plant that guards a house against intruders.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cannibal Grass

Sparrowhawk, Thomas A. Easton · 1990

A bioengineered lawn plant that guards a house against intruders.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. The story's world bans it, so it is a hazard nobody may lawfully buy or plant.

Who is paid. Nothing is lawfully sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hanky Bush: A shrub bred so its leaves serve as handy tissues.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hanky Bush

Sparrowhawk, Thomas A. Easton · 1990

A shrub bred so its leaves serve as handy tissues.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Leaves that serve as tissues replace a cheap paper product.

Who is paid. People buy it for the home or garden, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the nurseries and garden shops that already hold stock and shelves collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Society and economy · 2
Illustration of Interplanetary Union Of Spacemen: A labour organisation representing people who work off Earth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Interplanetary Union Of Spacemen

Old Fireball, Nat Schachner · 1941

A labour organisation representing people who work off Earth.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A labour union is an organisation of workers, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Control Natural: A citizen deliberately left with inherited genes untouched, serving as a baseline in an edited society.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Control Natural

Beyond This Horizon, Robert Heinlein · 1942

A citizen deliberately left with inherited genes untouched, serving as a baseline in an edited society.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Ideas from Technovelgy: Science Fiction Timeline of Inventions (Bill Christensen) (archived copy), as compiled in Not Boring: Sci-Fi Idea Bank (Packy McCormick); names, works, authors and years are theirs and every description is this site's rewording. Categories, arrival decades and profit are judged by AI models, not people. Method