Dated forecasts about this kind of technology from the singularity reading list, then every idea of this kind in the order stories first imagined it.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dated forecasts
Karnofsky argues that a productivity explosion has a good chance of happening by 2100 and could quickly yield a technologically mature civilization able to send spacecraft through the galaxy.
Holden Karnofsky · by 2100 · good chance · a good chance of a productivity explosion by 2100
How large a prize, and which seller keeps the rest
Each idea is judged as if it worked the way its story promises: how large a prize it would be, who would pay, and which seller would keep what is left once buyers have had their gain. Choose a cell to see only those ideas; each count is the cards that cell shows. Every placing is a model's judgement, not a reading.
Seller
A vast prize
A large prize
A small prize
No prize
No seller keeps much
·
·
The maker keeps the rest
·
·
Existing firms keep the rest
·
·
Permit holders keep the rest
·
·
·
·
Nothing is sold
·
·
·
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Forced Scholars
Le Monde Tel Qu'il Sera (The World As It Shall Be), Emile Souvestre · 1846
Children pushed through intensive schooling to become intellectuals early.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Pushing children through hard schooling is a practice of parents and schools; I assumed no particular teaching device is meant.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Fossil Shell Coin
The Coming Race, Edward Bulwer-Lytton · 1871
Using the scarce remains of a vanished sea creature as currency whose value rests on limited supply.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Using scarce old shells as money is a custom, and the shells are found, not made.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Credit Card
Looking Backward, Edward Bellamy · 1888
A card carried instead of cash that lets people pay for goods against an account.
built in the 1950s, about 70 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Paying without cash is worth an industry of its own, and the card drawn on an account is its plainest form.
Who is paid. Shops and banks pay fees on each sale, and since the card or chip itself is easy to copy, the banks and payment networks that already hold people's accounts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mall (Great City Bazaar)
Looking Backward, Edward Bellamy · 1888
A single large covered building holding many stores together.
built in the 1950s, about 70 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Many stores under one roof changed how shopping is done and is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Shopkeepers pay for space, and since the building is easy to copy, the owners of well-placed land collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Government Lethal Chamber
The Repairer of Reputations, Robert W. Chambers · 1895
State-run facilities where citizens may lawfully and painlessly end their own lives.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A place for a chosen death would serve few people, so it is a niche.
Who is paid. The state runs it and pays, and the means are simple enough that any supplier could provide them.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Noninterference With Other Worlds
In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897
A rule that visitors must not meddle in the development of other worlds' inhabitants.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A rule about how to treat other worlds and their peoples is law or guidance, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Networked World
When the Sleeper Wakes, H.G. Wells · 1899
A society whose daily life depends on vast webs of connected machines and messages.
built in 1969, 70 years after it was imagined
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This describes a whole society that depends on networks, not one thing that can be sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Breed Humans For Machines
The Machine Stops, E.M. Forster · 1909
A deliberate policy of weeding out robust people so humanity grows suited to a sheltered mechanical life.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A policy or worry about who may have children is a matter of rule and society, not something anyone would buy.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
The Book of the Machine
The Machine Stops, E.M. Forster · 1909
A single manual holding every instruction a person requires to live inside an automated world.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A manual for daily life is a convenience.
Who is paid. I assumed the authority that runs the automated world issues it and pays, and anyone can print a book.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hall of the Council
Crashing Suns, Edmond Hamilton · 1928
A vast assembly chamber built to seat representatives from across a galaxy.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A very large meeting hall is one building, a niche.
Who is paid. The government pays, and any large builder can put it up.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Universal Sterilization Law
A Biological Experiment, David H. Keller · 1928
A policy that makes every young person infertile and replaces births with laboratory-made people.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A policy or worry about who may have children is a matter of rule and society, not something anyone would buy.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Inurbanity (Inurbane)
The Cubic City, Louis Tucker, D.D. · 1929
Legal punishments for people who fail to conduct themselves decently in densely packed megastructure housing.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Punishments for bad manners in crowded housing are law, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Groundling
Exiles of the Moon, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931
A word for someone who stays on the ground and never travels by air or into space.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Machine Masters
The Reign of the Masters, Edmond Hamilton · 1931
A world where automation gradually absorbs all human work until the machines end up in charge.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Machines taking charge of the world is a fate that befalls society, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ownership of Machines
The Revolt of the Machines, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931
The question of who controls the automated plant that could make goods plentiful for all.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a question about who owns the factories, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Government Machine
Mechanocracy, Miles J. Breuer · 1932
A set of machines housed in a single building that runs every function of the state in place of officials.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Machines that do all the work of officials would change the cost of running a state.
Who is paid. A government pays for it, and since others could build such a machine once it exists, the suppliers that already hold contracts for courts and public offices collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sol-Ido
Water-Bound World, Harl Vincent · 1932
A common tongue shared by travellers between planets so everyone can understand one another.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A shared language is free for anyone to speak.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Credit
The Mightiest Machine, John W. Campbell · 1934
A standard unit of money used to price goods and settle payments.
built since, date unclear
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A unit of money is a measure everyone uses, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Laws Against Human Drivers
Photo Control, Bernard Brown · 1934
Legislation bans people from driving so that only self-driving vehicles share public roads, cutting crashes.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A ban on human driving is a law; the gain goes to makers of self-driving vehicles, which are a separate thing.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
First Contact
Proxima Centauri, Murray Leinster · 1935
Humanity's earliest meeting with an intelligent species that is not human.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A first meeting with another species is an event, not a technology.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Alcatraz of Space
Reunion on Ganymede, Clifford Simak · 1938
A prison built on a small rock drifting in space.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A prison off the Earth holds prisoners no better than one on the ground, so it is a niche.
Who is paid. A government pays, and since a cell block is easy to copy, the firms that already fly the supply ships collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Interplanetary Passport
Murder in the Void, Edmond Hamilton · 1938
Travel papers that people need to journey between worlds.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Permits, papers and traffic rules for space travel are set by governments, not sold as a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Multispecies Hotel
Hotel Cosmos, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1938
Lodgings designed for guests from many different worlds.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A hotel fitted for many kinds of guest is a niche within the hotel trade.
Who is paid. Travellers pay, and any hotel keeper could fit out such rooms.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Rocket-Polo
Ra For The Rajah, John Victor Peterson · 1938
A ball game played by players riding small rocket-driven vehicles.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A new spectator sport is entertainment, a niche.
Who is paid. Fans pay to watch, and since a sport is easy to copy, those who already own teams, grounds and broadcast deals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Space-Court
Murder in the Void, Edmond Hamilton · 1938
A tribunal that tries crimes committed between the stars.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A court is part of the law, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hall of Euthanasia
One Against The Legion, Jack Williamson · 1939
A facility where people go to end their lives, usually by choice.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A place for a chosen death would serve few people, so it is a niche.
Who is paid. The state runs it and pays, and the means are simple enough that any supplier could provide them. I assumed it is run by the state, as in the other stories.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Outbound Interplanetary Traffic
One Against The Legion, Jack Williamson · 1939
Regulations that govern ships travelling outward between planets.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Permits, papers and traffic rules for space travel are set by governments, not sold as a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pleasure Planet
After World's End, Jack Williamson · 1939
An entire world given over to leisure and entertainment.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A whole world of leisure would be an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Holidaymakers pay, and whoever holds the planet holds a place others cannot get.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Rocket Racing
Habit, Lester del Rey · 1939
Competitive races between rocket ships across the planets.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A new spectator sport is entertainment, a niche.
Who is paid. Fans pay to watch, and since a sport is easy to copy, those who already own teams, grounds and broadcast deals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Spacedog
A Question of Salvage, Malcolm Jameson · 1939
Veteran crew members who have long worked aboard spaceships.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Synthetic Personality
If This Goes On..., Robert Heinlein · 1940
A made-up identity given legal standing as though it were a real individual.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A made-up person recognised in law is a legal device, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Anti-Robot Propaganda
Liar, Isaac Asimov · 1941
Campaigns by people stirring up opposition to machines that think.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A campaign against thinking machines is an event in society, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Asteroid Claim Law
Jurisdiction, Nat Schachner · 1941
Legal procedure for staking ownership over a small space rock.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Permits, papers and traffic rules for space travel are set by governments, not sold as a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Interplanetary Clearance
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
Official paperwork and permits a craft must clear before leaving crowded launch ports.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Permits, papers and traffic rules for space travel are set by governments, not sold as a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Interplanetary Union Of Spacemen
Old Fireball, Nat Schachner · 1941
A labour organisation representing people who work off Earth.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A labour union is an organisation of workers, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Psycho-History
Beyond All Weapons, Eric Frank Russell · 1941
Using the science of the mind to analyse records of past events and forecast social trends.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Reliable forecasts of where a whole society is heading would be worth a great deal to those who govern.
Who is paid. Governments pay, and I assumed the method and its records stay in the hands of those who worked it out, so others cannot copy it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Space Lawyer (Sky-Lawyer)
Jurisdiction, Nat Schachner · 1941
An attorney who specialises in the law of outer space.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Advice on the law of space is a niche within the law.
Who is paid. Firms working in space pay, and any trained lawyer can offer it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Visible Halo
Sixth Column, Anson MacDonald · 1941
A lighting effect that makes a preacher appear to glow with holiness.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A glow around a preacher is a stage effect.
Who is paid. Churches pay, which I count as businesses, and any lighting maker can supply it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Alien Self-Government
Co-Operate or Else, A.E. van Vogt · 1942
Principles guaranteeing that intelligent beings from other worlds may rule themselves freely.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A rule about how to treat other worlds and their peoples is law or guidance, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Asterite
Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942
Someone born and raised in settlements scattered across the asteroid belt.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Control Natural
Beyond This Horizon, Robert Heinlein · 1942
A citizen deliberately left with inherited genes untouched, serving as a baseline in an edited society.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Groundhog
Waldo, Robert Heinlein · 1942
Slang for someone who lives and works on the ground rather than in orbit.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Royalties For Machine Learning Subjects
Q.U.R., Anthony Boucher · 1943
A scheme paying people ongoing fees when robots learn skills by copying their recorded behaviour.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A scheme of fees for people whose skills are copied is a rule about pay, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Treatment of Extramundane Aborigines
Symbiotica, Eric Frank Russell · 1943
Legal rules governing how visitors must deal with native peoples on other planets.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A rule about how to treat other worlds and their peoples is law or guidance, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Relations with Extraterrestrial Life
Ogre, Clifford Simak · 1944
Official guidance telling people how to conduct themselves if they meet beings from other worlds.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A rule about how to treat other worlds and their peoples is law or guidance, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Crimestop
1984 (Nineteen Eighty-Four), George Orwell · 1948
A learned reflex of cutting off any forbidden line of thought before it forms.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A trained habit of thought is a skill or a harm of the mind, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Doublethink
1984 (Nineteen Eighty-Four), George Orwell · 1948
A trained habit of holding two opposing beliefs at once and accepting both.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A trained habit of thought is a skill or a harm of the mind, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Three Generation Work (Century Piece)
The Sub-Standard Sardines, Jack Vance · 1949
A single artwork made over a hundred years by grandparent, parent and child artists in turn.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. One artwork made over a century is a rare luxury.
Who is paid. Collectors pay, and only the family that spent three lifetimes on it can offer it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Earther
The Five Gold Bands, Jack Vance · 1950
A label settlers use for someone native to our home planet.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Nexialist
Voyage of the Space Beagle, A.E. van Vogt · 1950
A generalist who ties together findings from many scientific fields.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A generalist who joins up findings across fields is a useful but niche adviser.
Who is paid. Firms and laboratories hire them, and the skill lies in people whom anyone can train.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Booklegger
Between Planets, Robert Heinlein · 1951
Someone who secretly trades in banned reading material.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A ban does not decide the answer, and trading in forbidden books is a small trade with willing readers.
Who is paid. Readers pay the trader, and anyone willing to take the risk can deal in books, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Psychohistory
Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1951
A statistical science that forecasts how whole populations will act over centuries.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Reliable forecasts of where a whole society is heading would be worth a great deal to those who govern.
Who is paid. Governments pay, and I assumed the method and its records stay in the hands of those who worked it out, so others cannot copy it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Smarter People Having Fewer Children
The Marching Morons, C.M. Kornbluth · 1951
A demographic worry, used as the story's premise, that capable people have too few offspring.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A policy or worry about who may have children is a matter of rule and society, not something anyone would buy.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flesh Men
Robots of the World! Arise!, Mari Wolf · 1952
A robots' word for biological thinking beings, meaning ordinary people.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Law of Contact
Orphans of the Void, Orville Shaara · 1952
A rule forbidding interference in how other civilisations develop.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A rule about how to treat other worlds and their peoples is law or guidance, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Manumission
Robot Unwanted, Daniel Keyes · 1952
Legally releasing a robot so it is no longer anyone's possession.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Machines demanding or winning their own rights is an event in society, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Strike
Robots of the World! Arise!, Mari Wolf · 1952
Machines collectively downing tools and refusing their assigned labour.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Machines demanding or winning their own rights is an event in society, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Earplug Decision (Restraint of Advertising)
Captive Audience, Anne Warren Griffith · 1953
A court ruling in a satire that forbids people from shutting out advertisements with ear protection.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A court ruling is law, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Farming Trantor
Second Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1953
Dismantling a world-spanning city so its ground can be tilled again.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Tearing down a ruined city to farm its ground is an event in the story, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Salamander
Fahrenheit 451, Ray Bradbury · 1953
A fictional fire-service vehicle in the story that sets buildings ablaze instead of putting out fires.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A fire truck that sprays fuel is a simple vehicle with one grim use.
Who is paid. The state fire service buys it, and any truck maker could build one.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Consumption Robots
The Midas Plague, Frederik Pohl · 1954
Humanoid machines assigned to use up surplus products so that people are spared the duty of consuming.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. In the story people are bound to use up goods, and a machine that does it for them spares them a chore; I judged it by that promise.
Who is paid. Households pay, and I assumed any maker of humanlike robots could supply one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Human Quarter
James P. Crow, Philip K. Dick · 1954
A walled-off district where humans are confined in a society run by robots.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A district where humans are penned in is a harm, not something anyone would buy.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Diabological Armory
Diabologic, Eric Frank Russell · 1955
A kit of verbal tricks built on superior logic, used to bewilder opponents in conversation.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A trained habit of thought is a skill or a harm of the mind, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Planet Rules
Drop Dead, Clifford Simak · 1956
Codes of conduct that govern how explorers behave after landing on an unfamiliar world.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A rule about how to treat other worlds and their peoples is law or guidance, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Post-Crime
The Minority Report, Philip K. Dick · 1956
Dealing with offences only once they have been committed, as opposed to stopping them beforehand.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Punishing crimes after they happen is ordinary policing under a new name, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Radioactive Coding for Checks
The Door Into Summer, Robert Heinlein · 1956
Marking bank cheques with a faint radioactive code so machines can sort and verify them quickly.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Machine-readable marks on cheques save banks some sorting work, a niche.
Who is paid. Banks pay, and any printer could apply the marks, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Universal Checkbook
The Door Into Summer, Robert Heinlein · 1956
An electronic payment system that draws money from any bank with ease.
built in the 1990s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Paying without cash is worth an industry of its own, and drawing on any bank with ease is the same service.
Who is paid. Shops and banks pay fees on each sale, and since the card or chip itself is easy to copy, the banks and payment networks that already hold people's accounts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Jurymech
Wanted in Surgery, Harlan Ellison · 1957
A machine that weighs the evidence and delivers a verdict in place of a human jury.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A machine that decides cases fairly would change the cost and speed of the courts.
Who is paid. A government pays for it, and since others could build such a machine once it exists, the suppliers that already hold contracts for courts and public offices collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ethical Suicide Parlor
Welcome to the Monkey House, Kurt Vonnegut, Jr. · 1958
A satirical state-run facility in the story where citizens voluntarily end their lives to ease overpopulation.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A place for a chosen death would serve few people, so it is a niche.
Who is paid. The state runs it and pays, and the means are simple enough that any supplier could provide them.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Metallic Marx
The Robots Strike, Harry Harrison · 1959
A machine worker that leads a walkout demanding better treatment for robots.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Machines demanding or winning their own rights is an event in society, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Judge
Robot Justice, Harry Harrison · 1959
A thinking machine that presides over court cases, complete with judicial gown.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A machine that decides cases fairly would change the cost and speed of the courts.
Who is paid. A government pays for it, and since others could build such a machine once it exists, the suppliers that already hold contracts for courts and public offices collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Indestructible Contract
Dorsai!, Gordon R. Dickson · 1960
A legal agreement recorded in a form that resists tampering or damage.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A record of an agreement that cannot be altered or destroyed is a useful safeguard but a niche.
Who is paid. Firms that sign contracts pay, and many makers could offer such a record, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Calster
Return from the Stars, Stanislaw Lem · 1961
A pocket gadget that prints valid money whenever it is needed.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A gadget that prints valid money at will would wreck the money it prints, so no one may be allowed to buy it.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Grok
Stranger in a Strange Land, Robert Heinlein · 1961
A coined word meaning to understand something so completely that you merge with it.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A coined word is free for anyone to use.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bibs
Cantata 140, Philip K. Dick · 1964
People placed in frozen storage because society has no role for them.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This names people set aside in cold storage, a condition of society; I assumed the freezing itself is a separate thing judged elsewhere.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Courtarena
The Tactful Saboteur, Frank Herbert · 1964
A legal forum where disputes end in lawful combat to the death.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A court is part of the law, not a product, even one that settles cases by combat.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Fake-Meter
The Killing Machine, Jack Vance · 1964
A pocket gadget that spots forged banknotes.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Spotting forged notes is a handy check for shops and banks, a niche.
Who is paid. Shops and banks buy it, and many firms can make such a gadget, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Universal Technical Consultative Service
The Star King, Jack Vance · 1964
A service that plans and books journeys between star systems.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Planning and booking journeys is a convenience; I assumed the starships already exist.
Who is paid. Travellers pay, and anyone can set up as a booking agent.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Amtal Rule
Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965
The principle of testing something until it breaks.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A rule of thumb about testing things is an idea anyone may use for free.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Truffle Skins
The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965
Genetically unique animal hides used as unforgeable money.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Money that cannot be forged saves the cost of fakes, a modest gain; unlike the fossil shells it is bred to order.
Who is paid. The government that issues the money pays, and whoever controls the breeding of the animals cannot be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Belter
The Warriors, Larry Niven · 1966
Someone born and raised among the asteroids.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cellphone Credit Card
The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966
Paying for purchases with a mobile phone.
built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Paying without cash is worth an industry of its own, and the phone is one way of doing it.
Who is paid. Shops and banks pay fees on each sale, and since the card or chip itself is easy to copy, the banks and payment networks that already hold people's accounts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Moon As Prison
The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966
Using the Moon as a penal colony that needs no walls.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A prison off the Earth holds prisoners no better than one on the ground, so it is a niche.
Who is paid. A government pays, and since a cell block is easy to copy, the firms that already fly the supply ships collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Online Employability Profile Testing
The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966
An online assessment that suggests which careers suit you.
built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A test that suggests careers is a handy convenience.
Who is paid. People take it for themselves, and anyone can write such a test.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Online Job Search
The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966
Lets anyone search job openings across the country by entering their skills.
built in the 1990s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Searching every opening by skill changes how hiring is done and is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Employers pay to list jobs, and the site with the most listings draws the most seekers, which a newcomer cannot easily copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
TANSTAAFL
The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966
The economic maxim that every benefit carries a cost someone must pay.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A saying about costs is an idea anyone may repeat for free.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pray-o-Mat
Lord of Light, Roger Zelazny · 1967
A coin-operated machine that recites prayers for you.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A coin machine that prays for you is a novelty.
Who is paid. Worshippers drop in coins, and anyone can build such a machine.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Purple Wage
Riders of the Purple Wage, Philip Jose Farmer · 1967
A universal basic income that the state pays to everyone.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A payment from the state to its people is a policy that moves money around, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Synthesist
Stand on Zanzibar, John Brunner · 1968
A profession devoted to linking insights across separate fields of knowledge.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A generalist who joins up findings across fields is a useful but niche adviser.
Who is paid. Firms and laboratories hire them, and the skill lies in people whom anyone can train.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Parenthood Lottery
Super-Toys Last All Summer Long, Brian Aldiss · 1969
A random draw deciding who may have children, used to cap population.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A policy or worry about who may have children is a matter of rule and society, not something anyone would buy.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flash Crowd (Flash Mob)
Flash Crowd, Larry Niven · 1972
A crowd that gathers suddenly wherever something interesting is happening.
built since, date unclear
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A sudden crowd is something people do, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Key Club
Flash Crowd, Larry Niven · 1972
An exclusive club reachable only by teleport, with identical branches in many places.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A members' club with linked branches is a luxury for a few; I assumed the teleport booths already exist.
Who is paid. Members pay, and any club owner could do the same once the booths exist.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
King's Free Park
Cloak of Anarchy, Larry Niven · 1972
A long, narrow park where lawlessness is permitted under constant watch.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A watched park with no rules is one odd public space, a niche.
Who is paid. The city pays for it, and any contractor could build and watch it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Fyunch(click)
The Mote in God's Eye, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1974
An alien whose role is to become a specialist in understanding one particular human.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. An alien assigned to study one human is a creature, not a technology.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Delphi Pool
The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975
Polling a large crowd whose pooled guesses tend to land near the truth.
already existed before the story (the 1950s)
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Pooled crowd guesses help with some forecasts but are a niche tool.
Who is paid. Firms pay for the forecasts, and since anyone can poll a crowd, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Electronic Voting
The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975
Citizens casting ballots through computer terminals.
built in the 2000s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Voting at a terminal saves some trouble at elections but changes little else.
Who is paid. The government pays for the terminals, and many firms can build them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Government Data Transparency
The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975
Publishing all state-held information openly online for anyone to read.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Publishing state records for all to read is a policy, and the records are free.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Paid Avoidance Zone
The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975
A district where residents accept state payment to live without modern services.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A payment from the state to its people is a policy that moves money around, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Strakh
The Moon Moth, Jack Vance · 1976
Social standing used as currency in a planet's economy.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Standing in others' eyes used as money is a custom of a society, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
International Fantasy Gaming Society (IFGS)
Dream Park, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes · 1981
A club that organises live-action role-playing adventures.
already existed before the story (the 1970s)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A club for live adventure games is a hobby.
Who is paid. Players pay to take part, and anyone can start such a club.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Post Office
Millenium, John Varley · 1983
A secure store for messages that visitors from the future leave behind in the past.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A safe store for messages is a small service; I assumed the travel through time already exists.
Who is paid. I assumed whoever runs the journeys pays for the store, and anyone can keep a vault, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Spark Plug (Systematician)
Dream Thief, Stephen Lawhead · 1983
A generalist who synthesises insights drawn from many unrelated fields.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A generalist who joins up findings across fields is a useful but niche adviser.
Who is paid. Firms and laboratories hire them, and the skill lies in people whom anyone can train.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flexitime
Master of Space and Time, Rudy Rucker · 1984
A workplace scheme that signals when an employee has completed their required hours.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A signal that the day's hours are done is a small office convenience.
Who is paid. Employers pay, and any maker of office clocks or software can supply it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
House Records Archivist
Heretics of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1984
A specialist who cross-references material inside a religious order's vast archive.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A specialist who links records in one archive is a niche skill.
Who is paid. The body that owns the archive pays, which I count as a business, and anyone can train for the work.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Panther Modern
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
A gang of hired digital saboteurs in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Hired sabotage is a crime that no one may lawfully buy; I assumed a forbidden trade counts as nothing sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Freezone
Freezone, John Shirley · 1985
An enormous man-made floating island sited beyond any nation's territorial waters.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A floating city outside every nation's law would draw enough trade to be an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Firms pay for space on an island outside any nation's law, and since anyone with the means could float a rival, the shipyards and marine builders able to make such platforms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Threat Team (of sf writers)
Footfall, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1985
Assembling speculative fiction authors to anticipate an unknown danger.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A panel of storytellers imagining dangers is a small advisory service.
Who is paid. The government pays their fees, and any group of writers could be gathered.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Boomer Park
Nanotime, Bart Kosko · 1987
A vast retirement community for an ageing generation.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A vast retirement town is housing and care for a whole generation, worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Retired people pay to live there, and since any builder can copy it, those who already own the land collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bank Chip
Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988
A chip-based payment card with its own onboard intelligence.
already existed before the story (the 1970s)
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Paying without cash is worth an industry of its own, and a card with a clever chip is one form of it.
Who is paid. Shops and banks pay fees on each sale, and since the card or chip itself is easy to copy, the banks and payment networks that already hold people's accounts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Internet Addiction
Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989
Compulsive dependence on being connected to computer networks and data feeds.
built in the 1990s, about 10 years after it was imagined
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A compulsion is a harm, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dozer
Earth, David Brin · 1990
A label for someone who is abnormally sensitive to rising carbon dioxide levels in the air.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Predictions Registry
Earth, David Brin · 1990
A body that records forecasts people make so their accuracy can be checked later.
built in the 2010s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Keeping score of forecasts is useful to those who rely on forecasters but is a niche.
Who is paid. I assumed news firms and other users of forecasts pay for the scores, and anyone can keep such a record.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Teaching Chair
Rammer, Larry Niven · 1991
A basic automated tutoring seat that instructs its occupant.
built in 2010, 19 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A seat that tutors its occupant well would change the cost of schooling; the real thing so far does less than the promise.
Who is paid. Families pay, and I assumed the lessons are ordinary software that many firms could write.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Burbclave
Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992
A walled private suburb that runs itself like a small sovereign enclave.
already existed before the story (the 1970s)
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Private walled suburbs that run themselves are a big part of the housing trade.
Who is paid. Residents pay to live inside, and since walls and house rules are easy to copy, the owners of well-placed land collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wende
Deep Eddy, Bruce Sterling · 1993
A term for a sweeping shift in a society's culture and politics.
built since, date unclear
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A word for a great shift in society is free for anyone to use.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Electronic Cash
Heavy Weather, Bruce Sterling · 1994
Money that exists only in digital form and moves over networks.
built in 2009, 15 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Paying without cash is worth an industry of its own, and money that lives only on networks is the same service.
Who is paid. Shops and banks pay fees on each sale, and since the card or chip itself is easy to copy, the banks and payment networks that already hold people's accounts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Virtual Childrearing
Natulife, David Brin · 1994
Simulation-based training in caring for children, possibly done remotely.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Practising child care in a simulation is a niche kind of training.
Who is paid. Parents-to-be pay, and many firms could write such a simulation.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Virtual Reality Ceremony
Rim, Alexander Besher · 1994
A ritual that accompanies putting on gear for entering a virtual world.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A ritual for putting on the gear is a custom, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Clave
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
A self-governing walled community that sets its own rules.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Private walled suburbs that run themselves are a big part of the housing trade.
Who is paid. Residents pay to live inside, and since walls and house rules are easy to copy, the owners of well-placed land collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Implanted Credit Card
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
A payment chip placed under the skin that pays at checkout wirelessly.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Paying without cash is worth an industry of its own, and a chip under the skin is the same service with a little added convenience.
Who is paid. Shops and banks pay fees on each sale, and since the card or chip itself is easy to copy, the banks and payment networks that already hold people's accounts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pokkecon
Maneki Neko, Bruce Sterling · 1998
A pocket computer linked to a hidden network that trades favours between strangers.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A pocket helper that matches favours between strangers would be a new kind of market for many people.
Who is paid. People buy the device, and the hidden network grows more useful with every member, so whoever runs it is hard to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bohemias
All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999
Enclaves exempt from normal social rules, where new trends tend to be born.
built since, date unclear
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Districts where odd living is tolerated grow up on their own and are not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cyberethics
Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999
A field of ethics about how computing systems should fit into human society.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A field of ethics is shared knowledge that anyone may study for free.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ethical Calculus
Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999
A mathematical method for working out what behaviour benefits society.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A method for working out good conduct is knowledge anyone may use for free; I assumed it is published like other mathematics.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Lucky Dragon ATM
All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999
A cash machine with a pushy talking personality.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A cash machine that talks is a small twist on an ordinary machine.
Who is paid. Banks and shops buy it, and any maker of cash machines can add a voice.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Punishment Sphere
Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999
A fictional coercive facility used to suppress dissent in the game.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.
Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Randominoes
Nymphomation, Jeff Noon · 2000
Game tiles whose dotted faces change unpredictably.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Game tiles with changing faces are a toy.
Who is paid. Players buy them, and any toy maker could produce them.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Municipal Darwinism
Mortal Engines, Philip Reeve · 2003
A world order in which large mobile cities hunt and absorb smaller ones.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Cities hunting one another is a world order, a way a society is arranged, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Whuffie
Down and Out in the Magic Kingdom, Cory Doctorow · 2003
An economy where standing in others' eyes works as money for buying life's essentials.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Standing in others' eyes used as money is a custom of a society, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Coder
Storm Thief, Chris Wooding · 2006
A caste of people especially gifted at building and engineering things.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Timebroker
Shuteye for the Timebroker, Paul Di Filippo · 2006
A dealer who buys and sells hours of other people's lives as a commodity.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A market in people's hours is like the hiring of labour, an industry of its own; I assumed working hours are meant and not years of life.
Who is paid. Firms buy the hours, and anyone can set up as a dealer, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Spine-Clamp
Anathem, Neal Stephenson · 2008
A fictional restraint used on convicted offenders in the story.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A restraint for convicts is a niche piece of prison gear.
Who is paid. The prison service buys it, and many firms could make one.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ultimate Football League (UFL)
The Sun Also Explodes, Chris Nakashima-Brown · 2008
A sports league that places no limits on bodily enhancement of players.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A new spectator sport is entertainment, a niche.
Who is paid. Fans pay to watch, and since a sport is easy to copy, those who already own teams, grounds and broadcast deals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Millenniaire
The Quantum Thief, Hannu Rajaniemi · 2010
A wealthy person holding a vast balance of lifespan, which serves as money in the story's economy.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Replaced Worker Benefits
Spark, John Twelve Hawks · 2014
Payments to people whose jobs have been taken over by machines.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A payment from the state to its people is a policy that moves money around, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
