Expected in the 2080s

A small prize. A yard that resells old ships is an ordinary trade, a convenience for buyers.

Who is paid. Small operators buy the ships, and anyone with a patch of ground could open such a yard, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

A large prize. An engine that moves ships faster or more cheaply would change the cost of all space transport.

Who is paid. An engine is bought by whoever runs the ship, assumed here to be carriers, and established engine builders could copy it once it worked.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

A large prize. A fixed way up from the ground to the edge of space would slash the cost of reaching orbit for every firm that uses it.

Who is paid. Shippers pay to send cargo up, and since another could be built once the idea was shown to work, the gain is assumed to go to the large builders and the holders of the few good ground sites.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

A large prize. A lift from the ground to orbit would slash the cost of reaching space for every firm that uses it.

Who is paid. Shippers pay to send cargo up, and since another line could be built once the first was shown to work, the gain is assumed to go to the large builders and the holders of the few good ground sites.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

A small prize. A jail in orbit is a costly way to do what prisons on the ground already do.

Who is paid. Only a government runs prisons, and the contractors that already build and supply them would be paid.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

A large prize. A thin screen grown like a leaf could replace much printing and most rigid screens.

Who is paid. People buy the panels for their homes, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the growers and screen sellers that already hold stock and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

A vast prize. This is only a slang word, so it is judged as the thing it names, assumed to be a humanlike machine that could do most human work.

Who is paid. Firms buy them as labour, and since many could build such bodies once shown how, the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

A vast prize. A manufactured being that works like a human could do most kinds of human work, which would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms buy them as labour, and since many could build such bodies once shown how, the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

A small prize. Clever guard bears serve a narrow trade of explorers, unlike the pet dogs in this family.

Who is paid. Exploring ventures pay, and because the bears breed, established animal breeders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

A small prize. A talking, cleverer dog is a prized pet or working animal, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Owners pay, and because the dogs breed, established breeders collect instead of the originator.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

A vast prize. Putting knowledge straight into the brain would replace years of schooling and training for most people.

Who is paid. Families and learners would pay for it themselves, and once one firm had built the gear others could copy it and many could write the lessons, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

A large prize. Trying on a chosen personality would be an industry of its own, part entertainment and part borrowed skill.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and since the method could be copied the owners of the stories, stars and channels people already follow would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

A large prize. Feeling another person's experience directly would be an entertainment and news industry of its own.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and since the method could be copied the owners of the stories, stars and channels people already follow would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

A large prize. Tiny bricks that build structures by themselves would change the cost of construction.

Who is paid. Builders buy them, and once they can be copied the established makers of building materials collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

A large prize. A piloted armoured war machine of that size would be a new class of weapon on the scale of tanks or warplanes.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and only the heavy arms builders with yards, factories and contracts could turn them out, though any of them could.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

A small prize. Machines too small to see that are fired in combat are one more kind of ammunition, a narrow use.

Who is paid. Armies would pay, and being hard to make does not stop others copying it once one maker has shown the way, so the established arms suppliers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

A small prize. A weapon too small to see is a specialist tool for killing chosen people, a narrow use.

Who is paid. Secret services pay, and being strange does not make it hard to copy, so once one is built the arms makers that already supply them can make it too and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

A large prize. A cloud of tiny guardians against hostile airborne machines would be a basic public defence in a world that has such threats.

Who is paid. Governments pay because no one can be charged one by one for clean air, and being hard to design does not stop others copying the machines once they exist, so the established defence suppliers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

A small prize. A living fence that lets through only those with the correct signal is a kind of lock for a boundary.

Who is paid. Assumes landowners and firms buy it; once such trees exist others could grow them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

A large prize. A film sprayed on any surface that sees, hears and shows pictures would put cameras and screens anywhere.

Who is paid. Nothing says it watches people, so firms are assumed to be the main buyers, and once made others could copy the film so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

A large prize. A reef that draws in the sea to supply big coastal settlements would be a water business of its own.

Who is paid. A government pays for the water supply of its coast, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the marine builders and growers that already hold such public works contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.