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Futures · expected

Expected in the 2070s

Dated forecasts that name this time, as their authors stated them, then the unbuilt ideas AI models placed here.

What authors forecast for the 2070s

Unbuilt ideas AI models place here

Space travel and habitats · 18
Illustration of City of Space: A vast rotating tube in orbit housing a whole town.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

City of Space

The Prince of Space, Jack Williamson · 1931

A vast rotating tube in orbit housing a whole town.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A place for many people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.

Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Radium Repeller ray: A projected beam that shoves approaching space rocks off course so passing spacecraft avoid collisions.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Radium Repeller ray

The Asteroid of Death, Neil R. Jones · 1931

A projected beam that shoves approaching space rocks off course so passing spacecraft avoid collisions.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Pushing rocks and other hazards away keeps a ship safe, but it is a safety fitting of the craft and not an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and once the field worked other shipbuilders could copy it, so established builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Liquid Mirror Telescope on Mars: An observatory on the red planet whose main reflector is a rotating pool of liquid metal forming a perfect curve.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Liquid Mirror Telescope on Mars

Old Faithful, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1934

An observatory on the red planet whose main reflector is a rotating pool of liquid metal forming a perfect curve.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It adds to knowledge of the sky but yields nothing to sell, so its worth is limited to science.

Who is paid. Nobody could be charged for what it learns, so a government pays the instrument and probe builders that already hold such contracts.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Out-Worlder: Someone born or raised on a world other than our home planet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Out-Worlder

A Matter of Size, Harry Bates · 1934

Someone born or raised on a world other than our home planet.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a word for a person from another world, not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Air-Tight Cities: Sealed settlements holding breathable air, built on moons or planets lacking any atmosphere.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Air-Tight Cities

The Cosmic Pantograph, Edmond Hamilton · 1935

Sealed settlements holding breathable air, built on moons or planets lacking any atmosphere.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A place for many people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.

Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Inflatable Roofed Valley: A settlement made by stretching an airtight inflated canopy over a natural hollow on an asteroid.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Inflatable Roofed Valley

Misfit, Robert Heinlein · 1939

A settlement made by stretching an airtight inflated canopy over a natural hollow on an asteroid.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A place for many people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.

Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space-Post: A station in space where traders buy and sell goods.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space-Post

Episode On Dhee Minor, Harry Walton · 1939

A station in space where traders buy and sell goods.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A station where traders meet is a marketplace, useful to the trade that passes but only a place to deal.

Who is paid. Traders pay for berths and stalls, assumed here, and whoever already owns the station collects since a second post nearby would have to be built.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Broomstick Speedster: A small two-person vehicle that reaches orbit using power beamed to it from outside.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Broomstick Speedster

Waldo, Robert Heinlein · 1942

A small two-person vehicle that reaches orbit using power beamed to it from outside.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A small personal vehicle that reaches orbit would open a new kind of private travel.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy the vehicle, but it only flies on beamed power, so the owners of the power stations collect most.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Asteroid Garden: A way to set up a sealed greenhouse on a tiny world with no atmosphere.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Asteroid Garden

Asteroid of Fear, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1951

A way to set up a sealed greenhouse on a tiny world with no atmosphere.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It lets a settler family grow food on an airless rock, a niche for the few who homestead there.

Who is paid. Settlers are assumed to buy it for themselves, and a shelter that must hold air against vacuum is made by the established makers of suits and habitats, any of whom could copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Asteroid Homesteaders' School: A training college for ordinary settlers learning to farm on small rocky bodies in space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Asteroid Homesteaders' School

Asteroid of Fear, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1951

A training college for ordinary settlers learning to farm on small rocky bodies in space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Training for would-be settlers is a niche service for the few who go.

Who is paid. Settlers pay their own fees, assumed here, and anyone with the knowledge can open a school, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Confinement Asteroid: A spun-gravity habitat where miners' infants grow up with proper weight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Confinement Asteroid

At the Bottom of a Hole, Larry Niven · 1966

A spun-gravity habitat where miners' infants grow up with proper weight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A place for many people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.

Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Acceleration Shell: A protective suit that lets its wearer withstand extreme acceleration forces.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Acceleration Shell

The Forever War, Joe Haldeman · 1974

A protective suit that lets its wearer withstand extreme acceleration forces.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It protects crews during hard thrust, which matters only to the few who fly such ships.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as part of the craft, and the firms that already build ships and their fittings supply it since others could copy the design.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Cryocapsule: A ship compartment holding crew in suspended animation inside sealed pods.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cryocapsule

The Computer Connection, Alfred Bester · 1974

A ship compartment holding crew in suspended animation inside sealed pods.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Suspending and preserving the body would make very long voyages possible and, assumed here, would matter to medicine too.

Who is paid. Carriers and hospitals would pay, and nothing in the description stops others making it once it is shown to work, so the firms that already supply ships and hospitals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cryonaut: A space traveller kept in frozen suspended animation.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cryonaut

The Computer Connection, Alfred Bester · 1974

A space traveller kept in frozen suspended animation.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It names the traveller who is asleep, not anything made or sold; the sleep itself is judged under the capsule and the gel.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold as a product, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Lunar Disneyland: An enormous cavern dug on the Moon and used for large-scale entertainment.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lunar Disneyland

The Phantom of Kansas, John Varley · 1976

An enormous cavern dug on the Moon and used for large-scale entertainment.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Entertainment on a grand scale on the Moon would draw visitors enough for a travel industry of its own.

Who is paid. Visitors pay to come, and another cavern could be dug, so the gain goes to those who already hold the ground and the ships that bring people.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of High Orbit Archipelago: The scattered inhabited stations circling far above the planet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

High Orbit Archipelago

Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988

The scattered inhabited stations circling far above the planet.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The name covers the inhabited stations themselves, and a place for many people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.

Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Can City: A settlement inside a rotating cylinder-shaped colony in space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Can City

Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989

A settlement inside a rotating cylinder-shaped colony in space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A place for many people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.

Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sky-Bike: A pedal-driven flying bike used for sport in low lunar gravity.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sky-Bike

The Last Theorem, Arthur C. Clarke (w/Pohl · 2008

A pedal-driven flying bike used for sport in low lunar gravity.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A pedal flyer for sport where things weigh little is a pastime for settlers on the Moon.

Who is paid. Settlers buy it for themselves, and a light pedal machine is something many workshops could make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Computing, AI and virtual worlds · 2
Illustration of Chemical Brain: A thinking machine built entirely from chemical reactions rather than electronics or living cells.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chemical Brain

The Chemical Brain, Francis Flagg · 1929

A thinking machine built entirely from chemical reactions rather than electronics or living cells.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that truly thinks, whatever chemistry it runs on, could do much of the mental work people do now, which would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Reality Tape: A recorded strip inside an artificial person that feeds it everything it perceives.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Reality Tape

The Electric Ant, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A recorded strip inside an artificial person that feeds it everything it perceives.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. This is one inner part of an artificial person and is worth only a little apart from the whole machine.

Who is paid. Builders of artificial people would buy it as a part, and I assume any parts maker could supply it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Robotics and automation · 4
Illustration of Machine City: An entire urban settlement that repairs, runs and sustains itself through its own automated systems.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Machine City

Twilight, John W. Campbell · 1934

An entire urban settlement that repairs, runs and sustains itself through its own automated systems.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A city that runs and repairs itself would be a great public work, judged as built for the people of one place.

Who is paid. A government would pay for it, and the large builders that already win public works contracts would be paid to raise it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ultra-microrobot: A machine so small its parts are the size of atoms.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ultra-microrobot

A Menace in Miniature, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1937

A machine so small its parts are the size of atoms.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine with parts as small as atoms could do work too fine for any other tool, worth an industry; the description gives it no job and nothing says it copies itself.

Who is paid. Firms doing fine work are assumed to buy it, and since others could copy it once shown the makers of precision equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Nexus-7 Android: An improved model of manufactured humanlike being, succeeding an earlier line.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nexus-7 Android

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, Philip K. Dick · 1968

An improved model of manufactured humanlike being, succeeding an earlier line.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A newer model of manufactured humanlike being is assumed to be the artificial person of the stories, able to do most kinds of human work.

Who is paid. Firms buy them as labour, and since many could build such bodies once shown how, the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Biot: A living organism built to serve as a robot.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Biot

Rendezvous With Rama, Arthur C. Clarke · 1972

A living organism built to serve as a robot.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A living thing built to serve as a robot is judged like any general working machine, which would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms buy them as labour, and since many could build such bodies once shown how, the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Medicine, biotech and longevity · 16
Illustration of Merry-Go-Round Life Suspension (Refrigerator Plant): Refrigerated equipment that keeps people in a frozen sleep for long stretches.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Merry-Go-Round Life Suspension (Refrigerator Plant)

The Voyage That Lasted 600 Years, Don Wilcox · 1940

Refrigerated equipment that keeps people in a frozen sleep for long stretches.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Frozen sleep for long stretches would open long voyages and change their costs.

Who is paid. Voyage operators pay, and makers of cooling plant collect since the equipment can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Emergency Treatment Tank (Chamber): A sealed pod that heals and regrows an injured body.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Emergency Treatment Tank (Chamber)

Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949

A sealed pod that heals and regrows an injured body.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Regrowing lost or ruined tissue would change what hospitals can do for the badly injured.

Who is paid. I assumed hospitals buy and run it; once it worked other makers could copy it, so established medical equipment firms and hospitals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Nucleocat Cureall: A universal treatment that kills every living cell except the patient's own.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nucleocat Cureall

Contagion, Katherine MacLean · 1950

A universal treatment that kills every living cell except the patient's own.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A cure for every infection would meet a basic need for most of humanity.

Who is paid. Patients and health services pay, and the developer keeps the gain because a new medicine is protected from copying.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Regeneration Tank: A body-sized tank of nourishing fluid that keeps a patient alive while curing illness.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Regeneration Tank

Contagion, Katherine MacLean · 1950

A body-sized tank of nourishing fluid that keeps a patient alive while curing illness.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A tank that sustains a patient while curing illness would change the costs of hospital care.

Who is paid. Hospitals would buy it, and other equipment makers could build the same tank, so established makers of hospital equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Cold-Sleep: Putting a person into a deep dormant state, like an animal wintering, for long journeys.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cold-Sleep

Between Planets, Robert Heinlein · 1951

Putting a person into a deep dormant state, like an animal wintering, for long journeys.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Putting people safely into long dormancy would make very long journeys possible and give hospitals time to treat the gravely ill.

Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Stasis (Cold Sleep, Hibernation): Putting people into suspended animation for years at a time.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stasis (Cold Sleep, Hibernation)

The Door Into Summer, Robert Heinlein · 1956

Putting people into suspended animation for years at a time.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Holding people in suspension for long spans would make very long voyages possible, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. I assumed carriers buy the equipment for crews and passengers; others could build it, so established makers of such equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cold-Pack: A way of keeping people chilled and preserved for an unlimited time.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cold-Pack

Dr. Futurity, Philip K. Dick · 1960

A way of keeping people chilled and preserved for an unlimited time.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Putting people safely into long dormancy would make very long journeys possible and give hospitals time to treat the gravely ill.

Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Weary Deep-Sleep: An old-style long-duration suspended sleep.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Weary Deep-Sleep

Lies, Inc., Philip K. Dick · 1964

An old-style long-duration suspended sleep.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The description calls it old-style, but it still puts people into long dormancy, which would make very long journeys possible.

Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Death-Reversal Equipment: Revival equipment that restores people killed in formal duels.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Death-Reversal Equipment

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

Revival equipment that restores people killed in formal duels.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Bringing back people who have just been killed would change emergency medicine.

Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and duelling grounds buy the equipment; other makers could copy it, so established medical equipment firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Modded Dog: A breed of dog engineered for higher intelligence that passes it on to its pups.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Modded Dog

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

A breed of dog engineered for higher intelligence that passes it on to its pups.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cleverer dog is a prized pet or working animal, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Owners pay, and because the dogs pass the trait on, established breeders collect instead of the originator.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Designer Eyes: Bioengineered eyes grown to outperform natural vision for artificial people.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Designer Eyes

Blade Runner, Ridley Scott · 1982

Bioengineered eyes grown to outperform natural vision for artificial people.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Grown eyes that see better than natural ones would be worth an industry, as with other replacement eyes.

Who is paid. In the story the makers of artificial people buy them, which is why the payer differs from other eyes; other laboratories could grow them too, so established suppliers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Wimp: A mindless human body cultivated as a spare physical vessel.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wimp

Millenium, John Varley · 1983

A mindless human body cultivated as a spare physical vessel.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The name is of the body, so the thing judged is the growing of a spare body, which would serve as a source of replacement parts and belongs with replacement organs.

Who is paid. I assumed patients pay, mostly through insurers or health services; other laboratories could learn the method, so established tissue laboratories and hospitals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Wimp Vault: A storage facility holding many spare cultivated bodies.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wimp Vault

Millenium, John Varley · 1983

A storage facility holding many spare cultivated bodies.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Storing spare bodies is a keeping service that follows from growing them, and the input marks it banned, so I assumed it is allowed only where the bodies are.

Who is paid. I assumed the laboratories that grow the bodies pay for the storage; any firm with cold premises could offer it, so established storage and laboratory firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Fabricow: Livestock engineered to grow designed biological machines inside their bodies like a factory.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fabricow

Piecework, David Brin · 1990

Livestock engineered to grow designed biological machines inside their bodies like a factory.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Animals that grow designed living machines would be a new way of manufacturing.

Who is paid. Manufacturers would buy the output, and the breeding stock could be copied, so farms and firms that already own herds and land collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of EverRest Cryotorium: A service that freezes the dead and stores them permanently in orbit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

EverRest Cryotorium

Flare, Roger Zelazny · 1992

A service that freezes the dead and stores them permanently in orbit.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Storing the frozen dead in orbit is a costly kind of burial for a few.

Who is paid. Families would pay, and other firms could offer the same, so established funeral firms and launch companies collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sites: Implanted micro-devices that fire muscles in order to boost physical strength.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sites

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

Implanted micro-devices that fire muscles in order to boost physical strength.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Extra strength for a healthy body is wanted by some workers and athletes, which is a niche.

Who is paid. People would pay to have them fitted, and other firms could copy the implants, so established makers of medical devices collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Mind and neurotechnology · 19
Illustration of Diagnostic Type Sense Transmitter: A link that lets a physician experience a patient's bodily sensations firsthand to help pin down what is wrong.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Diagnostic Type Sense Transmitter

The Sky Maniac, Henri Dahl Juve · 1929

A link that lets a physician experience a patient's bodily sensations firsthand to help pin down what is wrong.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Letting a doctor feel what the patient feels is one more aid to diagnosis among many.

Who is paid. Hospitals and clinics would buy it, and the makers of medical equipment who already sell to them could copy it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Telepadion Instructor: A teaching device that feeds a full sensory scene straight into the learner's nervous system.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telepadion Instructor

An Adventure on Eros, J. Harvey Haggard · 1931

A teaching device that feeds a full sensory scene straight into the learner's nervous system.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Lessons felt as full living scenes would improve schooling, but the learner still learns at something like an ordinary pace.

Who is paid. Learners and families would pay, and once a first firm had built it others could copy the device and many could make the scenes, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Automatic Reversed Memory: A device that triggers a person's recollections and replays them backward.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automatic Reversed Memory

Brain Control, Dave Cummins · 1937

A device that triggers a person's recollections and replays them backward.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Replaying a memory backward is a curiosity with few uses.

Who is paid. I assumed a few curious people buy it for themselves, and nothing stops others making it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Psychoscanner: A machine that reads memories and emotions out of a living brain, human or animal.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Psychoscanner

Propagandist, Murray Leinster · 1947

A machine that reads memories and emotions out of a living brain, human or animal.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Reading memories and feelings out of any living brain would reshape questioning and the study of animals alike.

Who is paid. It is worked by an operator on a subject, human or animal, so I assume the state and its services are the main buyers, and the firms that already supply them would collect since it could be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Quizzer: A self-operating device that interrogates a person's mind.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Quizzer

Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949

A self-operating device that interrogates a person's mind.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that questions a mind by itself would reshape police work and spying.

Who is paid. It is done to a subject, so though banned in the story it is judged as bought by a state: the state would pay for it as an interrogation tool, and since it could be copied the firms that already supply police and security services would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Haberman: People fitted with neural implants that govern their actions, used as a labour class.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Haberman

Scanners Live in Vain, Cordwainer Smith · 1950

People fitted with neural implants that govern their actions, used as a labour class.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.

Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Dominator: An implanted device in the story that forces a mental barrier on the person carrying it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dominator

The End of the Line, James Schmitz · 1951

An implanted device in the story that forces a mental barrier on the person carrying it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.

Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Thought-Record Helmet: A helmet that plays back recorded thoughts so the wearer can take in history directly.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Thought-Record Helmet

Menace From Vega, Robert Randall · 1958

A helmet that plays back recorded thoughts so the wearer can take in history directly.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Taking in history as recorded thought would be an industry of its own, part schooling and part entertainment.

Who is paid. People would buy or borrow the recordings for themselves, and since the helmet could be copied the holders of the recorded lives and archives would collect; it plays back at the pace of living, so it is not instant loading.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Betrization: A prenatal treatment that permanently suppresses violent impulses in people.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Betrization

Return from the Stars, Stanislaw Lem · 1961

A prenatal treatment that permanently suppresses violent impulses in people.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A people born without the urge to violence would be safe from each other, which changes how nearly everyone lives.

Who is paid. It only works if every child gets it, so the state would pay, and the medicine firms that already supply public health would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Extra-Factual Memory: Implanted memories of events the person never actually lived.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Extra-Factual Memory

We Can Remember It For You Wholesale, Philip K. Dick · 1966

Implanted memories of events the person never actually lived.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Memories of a holiday or adventure never taken would stand in for travel and film at far lower cost.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay for each memory, the method could be copied, and the leisure firms that own the stories and the names people know would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Psycho-Lease Encephalic Gadget: A brain device that makes a staged scene feel utterly real to the viewer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Psycho-Lease Encephalic Gadget

Galactic Pot-Healer, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A brain device that makes a staged scene feel utterly real to the viewer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Making a staged scene feel wholly real would be an entertainment industry of its own.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and since the method could be copied the owners of the stories, stars and channels people already follow would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Eccentric Projection: Operating another body from a distance as if it were one's own.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Eccentric Projection

The Girl Who Was Plugged In, James Tiptree, Jr. · 1974

Operating another body from a distance as if it were one's own.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Working a far-off body as if it were your own would let people do physical work anywhere without going there.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put workers and performers where they are needed, and once the link existed others could copy it, so no seller keeps much; unlike the thought-steered machines this gives a whole body to live in.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Microsoft: Tiny plug-in brain cartridges that grant instant knowledge or abilities.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Microsoft

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

Tiny plug-in brain cartridges that grant instant knowledge or abilities.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Plugging in knowledge or a skill at once would replace years of schooling and training for most people.

Who is paid. Learners and families would pay for it themselves, and once a first firm had built it others could copy it and many could supply the lessons, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Biosoft: A life story you absorb as lived experience rather than read.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Biosoft

Count Zero, William Gibson · 1986

A life story you absorb as lived experience rather than read.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A life story lived as experience rather than read would be a new medium to rival film and books.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay for each experience, the machine could be copied, and the studios that own the stories and the names people know would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Dustplug: A protective cap for an empty brain-implant socket.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dustplug

Count Zero, William Gibson · 1986

A protective cap for an empty brain-implant socket.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cap for an empty socket is a trifle that only owners of the implant need.

Who is paid. Implant owners would buy it for very little, and anyone can make a cap, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Memory Biochip: An implant that lets its owner relive chosen memories on demand.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Memory Biochip

Shards of Honor, Lois McMaster Bujold · 1986

An implant that lets its owner relive chosen memories on demand.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Reliving a chosen memory at will is a pleasure and a keepsake, like a better photograph album.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and once the implant existed others could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Brainlock: A coercive mind-control measure applied to prisoners in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Brainlock

Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988

A coercive mind-control measure applied to prisoners in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.

Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of BrainPal: A computer built into the brain that assists and connects soldiers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

BrainPal

Old Man's War, John Scalzi · 2005

A computer built into the brain that assists and connects soldiers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A computer in the head that helps and connects every soldier would change how an army fights.

Who is paid. Unlike the other brain links this one is issued to soldiers, so the government pays, and the firms that already hold army supply contracts would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Angel Music Player: A wireless player that sends music straight to the listener's brain.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Angel Music Player

Flood, Stephen Baxter · 2008

A wireless player that sends music straight to the listener's brain.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Music sent straight to the brain is a new kind of earphone, a convenience.

Who is paid. Listeners would buy it for themselves, and players are easy for many makers to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Transport and mobility · 2
Illustration of Boat-Tree: A tree engineered to bear pods large and buoyant enough to be used as boats.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Boat-Tree

The Houses of Iszm, Jack Vance · 1954

A tree engineered to bear pods large and buoyant enough to be used as boats.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tree that grows boat hulls makes small boats cheaper, and small boats are a modest trade.

Who is paid. People buy the tree or its pods, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the nurseries and boat dealers that already hold stock and yards collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Central Guide-Beam: A transmitted beam that both marks the ideal route through space and pushes craft along it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Central Guide-Beam

Shell Game, Philip K. Dick · 1954

A transmitted beam that both marks the ideal route through space and pushes craft along it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A beam that both marks the route and pushes craft along would be a highway through space, changing the cost of space travel.

Who is paid. I assume a government builds a beam like this as a public work, and the space contractors that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Energy and power · 1
Illustration of Tiny Nuclear Generator: A complete atomic power source small enough to hold between two fingers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tiny Nuclear Generator

Foundation and Empire, Isaac Asimov · 1952

A complete atomic power source small enough to hold between two fingers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A complete atomic power source held between two fingers would change what it costs to power machines anywhere.

Who is paid. Firms working far from a grid buy it, and because governments let only a few hands hold nuclear fuel, the few permitted makers keep what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Materials, manufacturing and construction · 5
Illustration of Nuclear Shears: Workshop cutting tools driven by a small atomic power source.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nuclear Shears

Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1951

Workshop cutting tools driven by a small atomic power source.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Powerful workshop cutters are a better tool for a trade, not a new industry.

Who is paid. Workshops buy them, and many toolmakers could build them once the power source exists, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of House Trees: Trees bred to grow large hollow pods that people move into and live in as homes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

House Trees

The Houses of Iszm, Jack Vance · 1954

Trees bred to grow large hollow pods that people move into and live in as homes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Homes that grow by themselves would sharply cut the cost of housing.

Who is paid. People buy it as a home, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the growers, builders and landowners that already hold stock, sites and the trade of housing collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mite: A dust-sized machine built for one specific job.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mite

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

A dust-sized machine built for one specific job.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Dust-sized machines each built for a job would be a new kind of tool for cleaning, repair, sensing and medicine.

Who is paid. Firms buy them for their work, assuming many jobs are served, and once one maker shows how, established equipment makers copy and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Nanotech Buildings: Huge towers grown from molecularly engineered fibres.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nanotech Buildings

Idoru, William Gibson · 1996

Huge towers grown from molecularly engineered fibres.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Growing huge towers from engineered fibre would change the cost of building, which is more than simply building taller.

Who is paid. Developers buy them, as with towers today, and once the method is known the big builders with land and crews collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Organic Superlubricant: An adaptive biological lubricant that improves itself with use.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Organic Superlubricant

Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999

An adaptive biological lubricant that improves itself with use.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lubricant that improves with use is a better supply for machines, not a new industry.

Who is paid. Machine owners buy it, and a living lubricant can be grown by many suppliers, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Weapons and warfare · 7
Illustration of Ray-Pistol: A pistol that fires a beam of energy instead of bullets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ray-Pistol

The War of the Planets, Harl Vincent · 1929

A pistol that fires a beam of energy instead of bullets.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A beam weapon carried in the hand does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pencil Heat Ray: A slim portable weapon that burns targets with a focused beam of heat.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pencil Heat Ray

Brigands of the Moon, Ray Cummings · 1930

A slim portable weapon that burns targets with a focused beam of heat.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Carried in the hand, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ray Gun (Handheld): A handgun-shaped weapon that fires bolts of energy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ray Gun (Handheld)

The Black Star Passes, John W. Campbell · 1930

A handgun-shaped weapon that fires bolts of energy.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A beam weapon carried in the hand does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ray Pistol: A hand-carried weapon that projects a damaging beam of radiant energy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ray Pistol

The Black Star Passes, John W. Campbell · 1930

A hand-carried weapon that projects a damaging beam of radiant energy.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A beam weapon carried in the hand does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Solar Flare System: A giant orbital mirror weapon used in a space war in the series.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solar Flare System

Mobile Suit Gundam, Yoshiyuki Tomino · 1979

A giant orbital mirror weapon used in a space war in the series.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A heavy beam or a weapon fired from orbit lets a state strike or defend across great distances and would take a large share of what it spends on arms.

Who is paid. Only governments pay, and the few shipyards and space builders that already hold such contracts are the ones able to deliver it, so they collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Supertank: A hovering armoured war vehicle that runs on its own onboard fusion reactor.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Supertank

Hammer's Slammers, David Drake · 1979

A hovering armoured war vehicle that runs on its own onboard fusion reactor.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Armoured fighting vehicles and warcraft are among the biggest things an army buys, and a better one shifts what winning costs.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and since the designs can be copied, the builders that already own the works and hold the army's supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Rat Thing: A fictional cyborg guard animal that protects property in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rat Thing

Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992

A fictional cyborg guard animal that protects property in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A guard animal rebuilt as a machine protects property better than a dog but serves a niche of security buyers.

Who is paid. Property owners and security firms pay, and since others could learn to join animal and machine once one firm had done it, the security suppliers that already serve those buyers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Food, agriculture and environment · 2
Illustration of Environmental Happening: Engineered weather staged as an artistic performance.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Environmental Happening

The Phantom of Kansas, John Varley · 1976

Engineered weather staged as an artistic performance.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Weather shaped as a show is an entertainment for a small audience.

Who is paid. I assumed spectators and patrons pay the performers, and anyone with the gear and the skill can stage one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of RUMOKO: A project to make new land by deliberately triggering volcanoes under the sea.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

RUMOKO

My Name is Legion, Roger Zelazny · 1976

A project to make new land by deliberately triggering volcanoes under the sea.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. New land raised from the sea would be worth a great deal to a crowded country.

Who is paid. A government pays for a project of this size, and I assumed the heavy engineering firms that already win such contracts do the work and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Home and everyday life · 2
Illustration of Bioform House: A dwelling grown from an engineered plant.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bioform House

Sparrowhawk, Thomas A. Easton · 1990

A dwelling grown from an engineered plant.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A house that grows itself would cut the cost of building homes, assuming it grows cheaply.

Who is paid. People buy it as a home, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the growers, builders and landowners that already hold stock, sites and the trade of housing collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Live Carpet: A living floor covering that consumes the dirt and debris that falls onto it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Live Carpet

Queen of Angels, Greg Bear · 1990

A living floor covering that consumes the dirt and debris that falls onto it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A carpet that eats its own dirt saves some cleaning of floors.

Who is paid. People buy it for the home, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the breeders and furnishing shops that already hold stock and showrooms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Society and economy · 3
Illustration of Interplanetary Passport: Travel papers that people need to journey between worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Interplanetary Passport

Murder in the Void, Edmond Hamilton · 1938

Travel papers that people need to journey between worlds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Permits, papers and traffic rules for space travel are set by governments, not sold as a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Bibs: People placed in frozen storage because society has no role for them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bibs

Cantata 140, Philip K. Dick · 1964

People placed in frozen storage because society has no role for them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This names people set aside in cold storage, a condition of society; I assumed the freezing itself is a separate thing judged elsewhere.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Belter: Someone born and raised among the asteroids.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Belter

The Warriors, Larry Niven · 1966

Someone born and raised among the asteroids.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Ideas from Technovelgy: Science Fiction Timeline of Inventions (Bill Christensen) (archived copy), as compiled in Not Boring: Sci-Fi Idea Bank (Packy McCormick); names, works, authors and years are theirs and every description is this site's rewording. Categories, arrival decades and profit are judged by AI models, not people. Method