Skip to content
Slow Variables
Ask
Futures · kind of technology

Materials, manufacturing and construction

Dated forecasts about this kind of technology from the singularity reading list, then every idea of this kind in the order stories first imagined it.

Illustration for Materials, manufacturing and constructionIllustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dated forecasts

  • Drexler's rough estimate put working molecular nanotechnology around 2015.

    Eric Drexler · 2015

    From Staring into the Singularity, Eliezer Yudkowsky, 1996

  • Kurzweil expects full molecular nanotechnology manufacturing to arrive around 2025, a few years ahead of strong AI.

    Ray Kurzweil · 2025

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Yudkowsky guesses that molecular nanotechnology will arrive by 2010 at the latest, ahead of earlier timetables.

    Eliezer Yudkowsky · by 2010 · My own guess would be no later than 2010.

    From Staring into the Singularity, Eliezer Yudkowsky, 1996

  • Suleyman expects the next forty years to render physical things into digital form in far finer detail, and digital designs back into objects with new speed and ease.

    Mustafa Suleyman · by 2063

    From The Coming Wave, Mustafa Suleyman, 2023

Imagined, oldest first

How large a prize, and which seller keeps the rest

Each idea is judged as if it worked the way its story promises: how large a prize it would be, who would pay, and which seller would keep what is left once buyers have had their gain. Choose a cell to see only those ideas; each count is the cards that cell shows. Every placing is a model's judgement, not a reading.

SellerA vast prizeA large prizeA small prizeNo prize
No seller keeps much
The maker keeps the rest
Existing firms keep the rest
Permit holders keep the rest
Nothing is sold

Illustration of Paper Steel: Processed paper made into a building material rivalling metal for hardness.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Paper Steel

Robur-the-Conqueror, Jules Verne · 1866

Processed paper made into a building material rivalling metal for hardness.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A cheap building material as hard as metal would change construction costs.

Who is paid. Builders buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Undersea Mining: Extracting metals and minerals from deposits lying on the deep ocean bottom.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Undersea Mining

20,000 Leagues Under the Sea, Jules Verne · 1875

Extracting metals and minerals from deposits lying on the deep ocean bottom.

built in the 1960s, about 90 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Metals from the deep ocean floor would add a great new supply for industry.

Who is paid. Metal users buy the ore, and many could build the gear, so mining firms with ships, money and seabed claims collect; I assumed claims are not scarce.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Atomic Microscopy: An instrument that makes single molecules and their atoms visible.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atomic Microscopy

The Crack of Doom, Robert Cromie · 1895

An instrument that makes single molecules and their atoms visible.

built in 1981, 86 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Seeing single atoms is prized by laboratories, but few buyers need such an instrument.

Who is paid. Laboratories and chip makers buy it, and the few established makers of fine instruments have the skill and the customers.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Artificial Silk: A silky textile manufactured chemically without any help from insects.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Artificial Silk

In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897

A silky textile manufactured chemically without any help from insects.

built in the 1930s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Unlike man-made cloth in general, this replaces one costly fabric, which is still worth an industry.

Who is paid. People pay for it in the clothes they buy, and so many mills can make such fibre that buyers keep nearly all the gain.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Helium Metal: A mined mineral that gives off the spectral signature of the element helium.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Helium Metal

In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897

A mined mineral that gives off the spectral signature of the element helium.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description gives the mineral no use, so I assumed it is mined as a modest source of a useful gas.

Who is paid. Industrial users would buy what is mined, and unlike the scarce gem and the wonder ore nothing here is said to be rare or without substitute, so the many mining firms that own such ground would sell it and none could hold buyers to one source.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Automated Surface Measurement: A machine that precisely gauges the dimensions of a surface without manual measuring.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automated Surface Measurement

When the Sleeper Wakes, H.G. Wells · 1899

A machine that precisely gauges the dimensions of a surface without manual measuring.

built in the 1970s, about 80 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Measuring a surface by machine saves workshop time, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. Factories and tailors buy it, and many instrument makers can build such a gauge, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Eadhamite: A man-made paving substance that gives roads an unusually slick, even finish.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Eadhamite

When the Sleeper Wakes, H.G. Wells · 1899

A man-made paving substance that gives roads an unusually slick, even finish.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Smooth, long-lasting roads would cut the cost of moving people and goods everywhere.

Who is paid. Governments pay for roads, and the paving firms that already hold road contracts can all lay it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Individualized Clothing Manufacture: Machines that cut and assemble garments to fit each customer's body from recorded measurements.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Individualized Clothing Manufacture

When the Sleeper Wakes, H.G. Wells · 1899

Machines that cut and assemble garments to fit each customer's body from recorded measurements.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Clothes cut by machine to fit each body would change the clothing trade's costs and waste.

Who is paid. People buy the clothes, and the machines can be copied, so clothing brands and shops with customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Nickalum: An aluminium-based alloy solidified inside a magnetic field to give it great strength.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nickalum

Looking Forward: A Dream of the United States of the Americas in 1999, Arthur Bird · 1899

An aluminium-based alloy solidified inside a magnetic field to give it great strength.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A very strong aluminium alloy would cut the weight and cost of vehicles and structures.

Who is paid. Vehicle and building firms buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established metal makers with furnaces and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Alohydrolium: A metal lighter than any other, prized for weight-sensitive construction.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Alohydrolium

Ralph 124c 41 +, Hugo Gernsback · 1911

A metal lighter than any other, prized for weight-sensitive construction.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A strong metal lighter than any other would cut the weight and running cost of aircraft, ships and vehicles.

Who is paid. Vehicle and building firms buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established metal makers with furnaces and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Artificial Cloth: Textiles spun from synthetic fibres made without plants or animals.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Artificial Cloth

Ralph 124c 41 +, Hugo Gernsback · 1911

Textiles spun from synthetic fibres made without plants or animals.

built in the 1910s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Cloth made without plants or animals clothes most of humanity cheaply, which is a basic need.

Who is paid. People pay for it in the clothes they buy, and so many mills can spin such fibre that buyers keep nearly all the gain.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Steelonium: A steel alloy that resists rust and corrosion indefinitely.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Steelonium

Ralph 124c 41 +, Hugo Gernsback · 1911

A steel alloy that resists rust and corrosion indefinitely.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Steel that never rusts would end much of the upkeep of bridges, ships and pipes.

Who is paid. Builders and shipyards buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established steel makers with furnaces and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Living Metal Cubes: Swarms of tiny metal modules that join together to form bigger structures.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Living Metal Cubes

The Metal Monster, Abraham Merritt · 1920

Swarms of tiny metal modules that join together to form bigger structures.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Tiny modules that join into larger structures by themselves would change the cost of construction.

Who is paid. Builders buy them, and once they can be copied the established makers of building materials collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Bolognium: A made-up chemical element coined humorously by metallurgists, with no defined uses.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bolognium

Transactions of Amer Soc for Steel Treating, Edgar Bain · 1926

A made-up chemical element coined humorously by metallurgists, with no defined uses.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a joke element with no stated use, so there is nothing for anyone to buy.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Inertron: A metal that behaves like dense heavy metals yet weighs far less.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Inertron

Armageddon: 2419 A.D., Philip Frances Nowlan · 1928

A metal that behaves like dense heavy metals yet weighs far less.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A metal with the strength of heavy metals at far less weight would cut the weight and running cost of aircraft, ships and structures.

Who is paid. Vehicle and building firms buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established metal makers with furnaces and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ultron: A substance that neither reflects light nor can be seen at all.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ultron

Armageddon: 2419 A.D., Philip Frances Nowlan · 1928

A substance that neither reflects light nor can be seen at all.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A substance that cannot be seen at all would be prized for hiding soldiers, craft and equipment.

Who is paid. Governments pay, assuming hiding is its main use, and the firms that already hold military supply contracts make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ultron Wire: An extremely thin, very strong wire so fine it cannot be seen.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ultron Wire

Armageddon: 2419 A.D., Philip Frances Nowlan · 1928

An extremely thin, very strong wire so fine it cannot be seen.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A very thin, very strong wire would change the cost of cables and structures; being too fine to see does not alter that.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Boring Heat Machine: A tunnelling machine that uses heat to turn the excavated rock and soil into usable construction material.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Boring Heat Machine

The Onslaught From Venus, Frank Phillips · 1929

A tunnelling machine that uses heat to turn the excavated rock and soil into usable construction material.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A borer that also turns the spoil into building material would change the cost of tunnels and mines.

Who is paid. Mining and building firms buy it, and makers of heavy digging machines who already sell to them can copy and supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Harbenite: A metal of extraordinary lightness for building strong structures that weigh very little.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Harbenite

Tarzan at the Eath's Core, Edgar Rice Burroughs · 1929

A metal of extraordinary lightness for building strong structures that weigh very little.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A strong metal of extraordinary lightness would cut the weight and running cost of aircraft, ships and structures.

Who is paid. Vehicle and building firms buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established metal makers with furnaces and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Invisible Cloak: A garment that bends or masks light around the person wearing it so onlookers see straight through them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Invisible Cloak

Brigands of the Moon, Ray Cummings · 1929

A garment that bends or masks light around the person wearing it so onlookers see straight through them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. True invisibility would be worth a great deal to armies and spies, and would likely be kept from ordinary buyers.

Who is paid. Armies and spy services pay, and the firms that already hold their equipment contracts would make it once the method is known.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Magnetic Shoes: Boots with magnets in the soles so workers can grip and walk on iron or steel surfaces.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magnetic Shoes

The Silent Destroyer, Henri Dahl Juve · 1929

Boots with magnets in the soles so workers can grip and walk on iron or steel surfaces.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Boots that grip metal help the few who work on hulls and steel frames.

Who is paid. Employers buy them for their workers, and any bootmaker can fit magnets to a sole.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Metalloglass: A see-through structural material with the strength and composition of metal.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Metalloglass

Buck Rogers, 2430 AD, Philip Nowlan (w/D. Calkins · 1929

A see-through structural material with the strength and composition of metal.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A see-through material with the strength of metal would change how windows, vehicles and buildings are made.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Reflectocosmic Spectrometer: An instrument that reads how cosmic radiation bounces off buried or hidden metals to identify and locate them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Reflectocosmic Spectrometer

Buck Rogers, 2430 AD, Philip Nowlan (w/D. Calkins · 1929

An instrument that reads how cosmic radiation bounces off buried or hidden metals to identify and locate them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Finding and naming buried metals from the surface would change the cost of prospecting for the whole mining trade.

Who is paid. Mining firms buy it, and an instrument can be studied and copied, so established instrument makers and survey firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Anti-Glare Coated Glass: Treated window panes on spacecraft that cut down harsh reflections and dazzle.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Anti-Glare Coated Glass

The Death's Head Meteor, Neil R. Jones · 1930

Treated window panes on spacecraft that cut down harsh reflections and dazzle.

built in the 1930s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Glass that cuts glare is a handy improvement to windows, lenses and screens.

Who is paid. Makers of vehicles, lenses and screens buy it, and many glass firms can apply such a coating, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Artificial Transparent Element: A see-through material with the toughness of metal.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Artificial Transparent Element

Last and First Men, Olaf Stapledon · 1930

A see-through material with the toughness of metal.

built in the 1960s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A see-through material as tough as metal would change windows, vehicles, screens and armour.

Who is paid. Makers of vehicles and buildings buy it, and the recipe can be copied, so the established glass and materials firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Invisible Cloak: A wearable covering that hides its owner from sight entirely by steering light around them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Invisible Cloak

Brigands of the Moon, Ray Cummings · 1930

A wearable covering that hides its owner from sight entirely by steering light around them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. True invisibility would be worth a great deal to armies and spies, and would likely be kept from ordinary buyers.

Who is paid. Armies and spy services pay, and the firms that already hold their equipment contracts would make it once the method is known.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Magnalloy: A tough, long-lasting alloy based on magnesium.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magnalloy

The Cave of Horror, S.P. Meek · 1930

A tough, long-lasting alloy based on magnesium.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A tough, lasting light alloy would cut the weight and running cost of aircraft, vehicles and structures.

Who is paid. Vehicle and building firms buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established metal makers with furnaces and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Plastifoam: An expanding foam sprayed over a hull breach to plug escaping air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plastifoam

Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1930

An expanding foam sprayed over a hull breach to plug escaping air.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Stopping air escaping through a hull breach is a vital repair supply for ship operators, not an industry.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy it, and a foam is easy for many chemical firms to match, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Alpha Insert: A sealing compound that plugs holes in a ship's hull after a strike.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Alpha Insert

Exiles of the Moon, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931

A sealing compound that plugs holes in a ship's hull after a strike.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A compound that plugs hull holes is a useful repair supply for ship operators, not an industry.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy it, and a sealant is easy for many chemical firms to match, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Argento-Platinoid Dispatch Box: A sealed metal-alloy case for carrying messages that no one can break into along the way.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Argento-Platinoid Dispatch Box

Venus Mines, Incorporated, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931

A sealed metal-alloy case for carrying messages that no one can break into along the way.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A case that cannot be broken into serves the few who must send secrets or valuables by hand.

Who is paid. Firms and couriers buy it, and many metal workers can make a strong sealed box, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Helio-Beryllium: A stable structural alloy combining beryllium with helium.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Helio-Beryllium

Out Around Rigel, Robert H. Wilson · 1931

A stable structural alloy combining beryllium with helium.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A stable light structural alloy would cut the weight and running cost of aircraft, ships and structures.

Who is paid. Vehicle and building firms buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established metal makers with furnaces and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pentavalent Nitrogen: A powerful explosive made from an energy-rich nitrogen compound.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pentavalent Nitrogen

Spacehounds of IPC, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1931

A powerful explosive made from an energy-rich nitrogen compound.

already existed before the story (the 1900s)

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A stronger explosive is an improvement for mining, demolition and munitions, not a new industry.

Who is paid. Mining and munitions firms buy it, assuming it is not for armies alone, and the explosives makers already licensed to handle such things collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sodaluminum: A light, strong aluminium-based alloy for building craft.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sodaluminum

Exiles of the Moon, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931

A light, strong aluminium-based alloy for building craft.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A light, strong alloy for building craft would cut the weight and running cost of aircraft and ships.

Who is paid. Vehicle makers buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established metal makers with furnaces and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Neo-Crystal: A clear glazing material for windows that cannot be shattered.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Neo-Crystal

Master of the Asteroid, Clark Ashton Smith · 1932

A clear glazing material for windows that cannot be shattered.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Window glazing that cannot shatter would change the glass trade for buildings and vehicles.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and being unbreakable does not stop a second maker, so the big glass firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Quartzite Leak Foil: A special sheet material used to seal breaches in pressurised shelters on airless worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Quartzite Leak Foil

The Great Dome of Mercury, Leo Zagat · 1932

A special sheet material used to seal breaches in pressurised shelters on airless worlds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sheet for sealing leaks in pressurised shelters is a repair supply.

Who is paid. Operators of such shelters buy it, and a sealing sheet is easy for many firms to match, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Impermite: A material that nothing can pierce or pass through, whether projectiles, blades or energy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Impermite

Redmask of the Outlands, Nat Schachner · 1934

A material that nothing can pierce or pass through, whether projectiles, blades or energy.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A material nothing can pierce would be worth an industry in armour, vaults, vessels and containment.

Who is paid. Builders of vehicles and strongrooms buy it, and nothing in the description stops a second maker: a thing being hard to cut open and study does not keep others from learning to make it, so the established materials firms collect as they do with the tough alloys.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Penetron: A synthetic material that blocks ordinary sight but turns see-through when viewed with heat-band light.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Penetron

Redmask of the Outlands, Nat Schachner · 1934

A synthetic material that blocks ordinary sight but turns see-through when viewed with heat-band light.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A material that hides things from the eye but not from heat cameras suits a few screening and security uses.

Who is paid. Security and equipment firms buy it, and many chemical firms could match it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Atom Compactor (Metal Earthworm): A burrowing machine that bores through rock underground.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atom Compactor (Metal Earthworm)

Death Dives Deep, Paul Ernst · 1936

A burrowing machine that bores through rock underground.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that bores quickly through rock would change the cost of tunnels and mines.

Who is paid. Mining and building firms buy it, and makers of heavy digging machines who already sell to them can copy and supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Vitrisheen: A see-through glassy material worn as fashion.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vitrisheen

Moon Crystals, J. Harvey Haggard · 1936

A see-through glassy material worn as fashion.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A glassy see-through material worn as fashion is a novelty.

Who is paid. People buy it to wear, and many firms can make a fashion material, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Atomic Drill: A nuclear-powered boring machine for digging deep into worlds and space rocks.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atomic Drill

Minus Planet, John D. Clark, Ph.D · 1937

A nuclear-powered boring machine for digging deep into worlds and space rocks.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that digs deep into worlds and space rocks would change the cost of tunnels and mines.

Who is paid. Mining firms buy it, and makers of heavy digging machines who already sell to them can copy and supply it, the atomic power needing approval but not a scarce licence.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Plani-Glass: A clear, lightweight material as strong under tension as steel.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plani-Glass

Crystalized Thought, Nat Schachner · 1937

A clear, lightweight material as strong under tension as steel.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A clear, light material as strong as steel would change how windows, vehicles and buildings are made.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Coronium Ore: A fictional radiant mineral promised to transform industry.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Coronium Ore

Roamer of the Stars, Clyde Wilson · 1938

A fictional radiant mineral promised to transform industry.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Taken at its promise, a mineral that transforms industry would change costs across it, though the description does not say how.

Who is paid. Industry buys the ore, and whoever owns the deposits holds something others cannot get, assuming it is found in only a few places.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Liquid Metal: Metal applied as a spray coating onto surfaces.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Liquid Metal

The Dual World, Arthur K. Barnes · 1938

Metal applied as a spray coating onto surfaces.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Spraying metal onto surfaces is a useful way to protect and repair parts.

Who is paid. Workshops and factories buy it, and many firms can build such sprayers.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Atomic Torch: A cutting and joining tool driven by atomic energy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atomic Torch

One Against The Legion, Jack Williamson · 1939

A cutting and joining tool driven by atomic energy.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A stronger cutting and joining tool is a workshop improvement, not a new industry.

Who is paid. Workshops and builders buy it, and many toolmakers could build such a torch, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Duplication Chamber: Makes an exact copy of whatever object is placed inside.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Duplication Chamber

The 4-Sided Triangle, William F. Temple · 1939

Makes an exact copy of whatever object is placed inside.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Copying any object exactly would make most goods nearly free, changing how nearly everything is made.

Who is paid. Assuming a home or shop machine, people buy it, and a machine that copies anything can copy itself, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Durite: An extremely tough substance that shields against rocket exhaust.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Durite

Misfit, Robert Heinlein · 1939

An extremely tough substance that shields against rocket exhaust.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Unlike the general-purpose alloys, this is described only as a shield against rocket exhaust, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Rocket builders and launch sites buy it, and established materials firms that already supply them can copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Metalite: A tough metal-like material that light passes through.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Metalite

Black Destroyer, A.E. van Vogt · 1939

A tough metal-like material that light passes through.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A see-through material as tough as metal would change how windows, vehicles and buildings are made.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Permalloy: An alloy hull covering that guards spacecraft against the dangers beyond the atmosphere.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Permalloy

Fugitives From Earth, Nelson S. Bond · 1939

An alloy hull covering that guards spacecraft against the dangers beyond the atmosphere.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A hull covering against the dangers of space is one part of a spacecraft, like the exhaust shield in the first batch.

Who is paid. Spacecraft builders buy it, assuming space travel is a modest trade, and an alloy recipe gets copied, so established metal makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Synthetic Spider Silk: Lab-made fibre copying what spiders spin, matching steel for strength.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Synthetic Spider Silk

Misfit, Robert Heinlein · 1939

Lab-made fibre copying what spiders spin, matching steel for strength.

built in the 2010s, about 80 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A man-made fibre as strong as steel would change ropes, cloth and light structures; the real thing is still small, and I judged the promise.

Who is paid. Manufacturers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Thermalite: A clear material that lets light through while trapping nearly all heat inside.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Thermalite

Planet of Eternal Night, John W. Campbell · 1939

A clear material that lets light through while trapping nearly all heat inside.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A clear material that lets in light and keeps nearly all heat would cut the cost of heating buildings everywhere.

Who is paid. Home owners pay for it in their windows, and many glass firms could make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Double-Pane Vacuum Window: Glazing made of two glass sheets with empty space sealed between them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Double-Pane Vacuum Window

The Achilles Heel, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1940

Glazing made of two glass sheets with empty space sealed between them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Windows that hold heat in cut heating and cooling bills in most buildings, which is worth an industry.

Who is paid. Home owners and builders buy it, and any glass works can seal panes this way, so buyers keep the gain.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Hyperbolic Solenoid: A coil apparatus that produces and shapes magnetic fields.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hyperbolic Solenoid

The Exhalted, L. Sprague de Camp · 1940

A coil apparatus that produces and shapes magnetic fields.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A coil that shapes magnetic fields is a part for laboratories and machines.

Who is paid. Laboratories and machine makers buy it, and many electrical firms can wind such a coil.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Silk-Metal: A woven cloth made partly of metal that is extremely hard to tear or cut.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Silk-Metal

The Worlds of Tomorrow, Manly Wade Wellman · 1940

A woven cloth made partly of metal that is extremely hard to tear or cut.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Cloth that is very hard to tear or cut makes better protective clothing, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Employers buy it for workers, and the weave can be copied, so established workwear and textile firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Slow Glass Rod: A clear rod in which light moves so sluggishly that it stays held inside.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Slow Glass Rod

The Exhalted, L. Sprague de Camp · 1940

A clear rod in which light moves so sluggishly that it stays held inside.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A rod that holds light inside has no use named, so I assumed it serves as a store of light or a curiosity.

Who is paid. Instrument and lighting makers might buy it, and nothing in the description stops many glass firms making it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Synthetic Flesh: Artificial skin-like material used to alter someone's appearance.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Synthetic Flesh

The Amazon Fights Again, Thornton Ayre · 1940

Artificial skin-like material used to alter someone's appearance.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A skin-like material that changes how someone looks serves actors and spies, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Stage and film firms buy it, assuming open sale and that spy services are a minor buyer, and many firms could make such a skin.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Telelubricator: Removes all friction from whatever surface or material it targets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telelubricator

The Exhalted, L. Sprague de Camp · 1940

Removes all friction from whatever surface or material it targets.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Removing all friction from a chosen surface would cut wear and wasted energy in machines everywhere.

Who is paid. Machine owners buy it, assuming it is a tool and not a weapon, and once one firm builds it established equipment makers copy and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Vacuum Wall Compartments: Walls with sealed empty gaps inside that block the passage of heat.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vacuum Wall Compartments

The Achilles Heel, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1940

Walls with sealed empty gaps inside that block the passage of heat.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Walls with sealed empty gaps keep heat in and would cut the cost of heating and cooling buildings.

Who is paid. Home owners pay for it in their walls, and the idea is simple for any builder to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Hell-Stone: An extraordinarily lovely and scarce gemstone.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hell-Stone

Star of Dreams, Jack Williamson · 1941

An extraordinarily lovely and scarce gemstone.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A rare and lovely gem is a luxury for a few.

Who is paid. Wealthy people buy it, and whoever holds the scarce source controls something others cannot get.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Instant Customized Clothing: A machine that makes a chosen garment on demand, while the customer waits.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Instant Customized Clothing

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

A machine that makes a chosen garment on demand, while the customer waits.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A chosen garment made while the customer waits would change the clothing trade's costs and waste.

Who is paid. People buy the clothes, and the machines can be copied, so clothing brands and shops with customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Black Coating: A surface layer so dark it soaks up almost every ray of light that hits it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Black Coating

Gray Lensman, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1942

A surface layer so dark it soaks up almost every ray of light that hits it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A coating that soaks up nearly all light helps telescopes, cameras and a few design uses, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Instrument makers buy it, and a coating can be studied and matched by many paint and chemical firms, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Plastifoam: Expanding foam sprayed to plug big breaches in a spacecraft hull.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plastifoam

Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942

Expanding foam sprayed to plug big breaches in a spacecraft hull.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Stopping air escaping through a hull breach is a vital repair supply for ship operators, not an industry.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy it, and a foam is easy for many chemical firms to match, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Aladur: A light material with very great pulling strength.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Aladur

Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943

A light material with very great pulling strength.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A light material of very great pulling strength would change the cost of cables, aircraft and structures.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Durasteel: An alloy that outlasts ordinary steel under wear and stress.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Durasteel

Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943

An alloy that outlasts ordinary steel under wear and stress.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An alloy that outlasts steel would cut replacement and upkeep costs in machines and structures.

Who is paid. Makers of machines and buildings buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established metal makers with furnaces and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Impervium: A substance nothing can pierce or destroy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Impervium

Clash by Night, Lawrence O'Donnell · 1943

A substance nothing can pierce or destroy.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A substance nothing can pierce or destroy would be worth an industry in armour, vaults, vessels and containment.

Who is paid. Builders of vehicles and strongrooms buy it, and nothing in the description stops a second maker: a thing being hard to cut open and study does not keep others from learning to make it, so the established materials firms collect as they do with the tough alloys.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Plastic Constructor (3D Printer): An additive fabrication machine that builds spacecraft parts layer by layer from plastic.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plastic Constructor (3D Printer)

Things Pass By, Murray Leinster · 1945

An additive fabrication machine that builds spacecraft parts layer by layer from plastic.

built in 1984, 39 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Building spacecraft parts layer by layer saves stock and tooling for one industry; it is confined to plastic parts, so it is not a make-anything machine.

Who is paid. Manufacturers buy it, and the real machines proved easy for many firms to build, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Herculoy: An exceptionally tough metal blend used in construction.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Herculoy

The Howling Bounders, Jack Vance · 1949

An exceptionally tough metal blend used in construction.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An exceptionally tough building metal would cut replacement and upkeep costs in structures.

Who is paid. Builders buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established metal makers with furnaces and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Resilian: A plant or animal fibre with the toughness of metal.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Resilian

The Howling Bounders, Jack Vance · 1949

A plant or animal fibre with the toughness of metal.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A natural fibre as tough as metal would change ropes, cloth and light structures.

Who is paid. Manufacturers buy it, and a plant or animal can be bred by others, so the big fibre and textile firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Vivo-Gel: A jelly-like substance that is partly alive.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vivo-Gel

Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949

A jelly-like substance that is partly alive.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A partly living jelly has no use named, so I assumed a minor one such as padding or dressing.

Who is paid. Firms might buy it for such uses, and a living material can be grown by many, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Nuclear Shears: Workshop cutting tools driven by a small atomic power source.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nuclear Shears

Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1951

Workshop cutting tools driven by a small atomic power source.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Powerful workshop cutters are a better tool for a trade, not a new industry.

Who is paid. Workshops buy them, and many toolmakers could build them once the power source exists, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Plasto-Textile: A cloth that repels every spill and mark.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plasto-Textile

Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1951

A cloth that repels every spill and mark.

built in the 1950s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Cloth that repels every spill and mark would end much washing and replacing of clothes and furnishings.

Who is paid. People buy the goods, and the cloth can be copied, so clothing and textile firms with brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Self-Sealing Plastic: Clear plastic film with an inner layer that oozes into small punctures and seals them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Self-Sealing Plastic

Asteroid of Fear, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1951

Clear plastic film with an inner layer that oozes into small punctures and seals them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Film that seals its own small punctures is a handy improvement to tents, suits and packaging.

Who is paid. Makers of such goods buy it, and many plastics firms can match it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Hilsch Vortex Tube: A simple pipe fitting with no moving parts that splits compressed air into warm and chilled streams.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hilsch Vortex Tube

The Space Merchants, Frederik Pohl (w/CM Kornbluth · 1952

A simple pipe fitting with no moving parts that splits compressed air into warm and chilled streams.

already existed before the story (the 1930s)

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A simple fitting that gives warm and cold air is a useful workshop part.

Who is paid. Factories buy it for spot cooling, and any machine shop can make a pipe with no moving parts.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Tree-Grown Wood: Timber from real trees, treated as a rare luxury in a world of synthetics.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tree-Grown Wood

Gravy Planet, Frederik Pohl (w/CM Kornbluth · 1952

Timber from real trees, treated as a rare luxury in a world of synthetics.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Real timber kept as a rare luxury is a niche, like a fine gem.

Who is paid. Wealthy people buy it, and by the description it is rare, so whoever holds the few remaining trees keeps the gain.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of House Trees: Trees bred to grow large hollow pods that people move into and live in as homes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

House Trees

The Houses of Iszm, Jack Vance · 1954

Trees bred to grow large hollow pods that people move into and live in as homes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Homes that grow by themselves would sharply cut the cost of housing.

Who is paid. People buy it as a home, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the growers, builders and landowners that already hold stock, sites and the trade of housing collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mecho-Clothing: Garments manufactured start to finish by automated machinery, with no human sewing.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mecho-Clothing

Last of the Masters, Philip K. Dick · 1954

Garments manufactured start to finish by automated machinery, with no human sewing.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Clothes made with no hand sewing would cut the cost of the whole garment trade, but it is one industry and not all of making.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy the clothes, and the machinery can be copied, so clothing firms with brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Snake Boring Truck: A long, slender serpent-shaped vehicle that drills its way through the ground.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Snake Boring Truck

Breakfast at Twilight, Philip K. Dick · 1954

A long, slender serpent-shaped vehicle that drills its way through the ground.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A vehicle that drills its own way through the ground would change the cost of tunnels, pipes and mines.

Who is paid. Construction and mining firms buy it, and heavy-machine makers with plants and service crews can each build one, so they collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Suit-Shield Fabric: A protective mesh cloth that shields its wearer from energy blasts in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Suit-Shield Fabric

The Golden Man, Philip K. Dick · 1954

A protective mesh cloth that shields its wearer from energy blasts in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Cloth that shields its wearer from energy blasts is protective kit for fighters, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Armies and police pay, assuming they are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold armour contracts supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Automatic Factory: A production plant that runs itself from start to finish with no human workers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automatic Factory

Autofac, Philip K. Dick · 1955

A production plant that runs itself from start to finish with no human workers.

built in the 1970s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Factories with no workers at all would change how most goods are made and how most people work, which is more than today's automated plants manage.

Who is paid. Manufacturers buy the machinery, many can build it, and the firms that already own plants, brands and routes to customers collect what buyers do not.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Automatized Factory: A plant run entirely by machines that have been given human skills.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automatized Factory

The Tunnel Under The World, Frederik Pohl · 1955

A plant run entirely by machines that have been given human skills.

built in the 1970s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Plants run wholly by machines with human skill would change how most goods are made and how most people work.

Who is paid. Manufacturers buy the machinery, many can build it, and the firms that already own plants, brands and routes to customers collect what buyers do not.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Heat-Suit: Protective clothing that keeps a person cool enough to work on scorching worlds with breathable air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Heat-Suit

Sand Doom, Murray Leinster · 1955

Protective clothing that keeps a person cool enough to work on scorching worlds with breathable air.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Clothing that keeps a worker cool in scorching places matters to the few who work there.

Who is paid. Employers of people in hot places buy it, and makers of safety gear who already supply them can copy and sell it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Light-Absorbing Paint: A coating so dark it hides a spacecraft from detection by soaking up light.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Light-Absorbing Paint

Earthlight, Arthur C. Clarke · 1955

A coating so dark it hides a spacecraft from detection by soaking up light.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A coating that soaks up light is a niche, here used to hide a spacecraft.

Who is paid. Unlike the other dark coatings, this one hides warcraft, so armed forces pay and the firms that already hold their contracts apply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Product Prescription: A digital recipe from which a machine can manufacture a copy of an object.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Product Prescription

The Magellanic Cloud, Stanislaw Lem · 1955

A digital recipe from which a machine can manufacture a copy of an object.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A recipe that lets a machine make a copy of any object is the working part of a make-anything machine, which makes most goods nearly free.

Who is paid. People get recipes for a home or shop machine, I assume, and a digital recipe is copied freely, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Invulnerable Wall: A barrier substance produced by insects that becomes tougher the harder it is squeezed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Invulnerable Wall

Jackpot, Clifford Simak · 1956

A barrier substance produced by insects that becomes tougher the harder it is squeezed.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A wall that grows tougher the harder it is pressed would be worth an industry in armour, vaults and containment.

Who is paid. Builders buy it, and the insects that make it breed and can be taken and raised by others like the other living tools here, so no one holder keeps them and the established makers of building materials collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Matter Organizer: A machine that turns a design pictured by a computer into a solid physical thing.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Matter Organizer

The City and the Stars, Arthur C. Clarke · 1956

A machine that turns a design pictured by a computer into a solid physical thing.

built in the 1990s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Turning any stored design into a solid thing, far beyond today's printers, would change how nearly everything is made.

Who is paid. Assuming a home or shop machine, people buy it, and a machine that makes anything can make more of itself, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Puddinged: A slang term for a botched replica whose inside is a shapeless mess.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Puddinged

Pay for the Printer, Philip K. Dick · 1956

A slang term for a botched replica whose inside is a shapeless mess.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a slang word for a failed copy, not a thing anyone could buy.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold; it names a fault, not a product.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Molecular Sieve: A filter that pulls any chosen element out of ocean water.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Molecular Sieve

Tales from the White Hart, Arthur C. Clarke · 1957

A filter that pulls any chosen element out of ocean water.

built since, date unclear

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Pulling any chosen element out of sea water would change the cost of metals and fresh water.

Who is paid. Mining and chemical firms buy it, and once the method is known those with plants on the coast and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Neutronic Shielding: An extremely dense single-molecule barrier material used for protection.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Neutronic Shielding

The Sign of the Tiger, Alan Nourse (w/Meyer · 1958

An extremely dense single-molecule barrier material used for protection.

built since, date unclear

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An extremely dense barrier that stops nearly anything would change how ships, reactors and vaults are protected.

Who is paid. Firms that build such things buy it, assuming it is not for armies alone, and nothing in the description stops a second maker, so the big materials firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Plastotek: An artificial skin layer worn to change one's appearance.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plastotek

Menace From Vega, Robert Randall · 1958

An artificial skin layer worn to change one's appearance.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A false skin that changes how someone looks serves actors and spies, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Stage and film firms buy it, assuming open sale and that spy services are a minor buyer, and many firms could make such a skin.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Single Sheet Molecule: Paper made of one giant molecule so each document is unique and cannot be forged.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Single Sheet Molecule

Dorsai!, Gordon R. Dickson · 1960

Paper made of one giant molecule so each document is unique and cannot be forged.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Paper that cannot be forged is useful for money, deeds and certificates, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Banks, firms and offices buy it, and I assumed more than one maker could learn the method, so established security printers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Plexiskin: A synthetic covering worn over the face to pass as someone else.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plexiskin

A Spaceship Named McGuire, Gordon Randall Garrett · 1961

A synthetic covering worn over the face to pass as someone else.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A false face for passing as someone else serves actors and spies, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Stage and film firms buy it, assuming open sale and that spy services are a minor buyer, and many firms could make such a skin.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sealingsilk: A clear, bendable fabric that stays airtight even when exposed to the vacuum of space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sealingsilk

The Beat Cluster, Fritz Leiber · 1961

A clear, bendable fabric that stays airtight even when exposed to the vacuum of space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A clear airtight fabric for vacuum serves space suits and shelters, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it, and the cloth can be copied, so makers of protective gear with customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spray-On Clothing: Garments applied to the body straight from an aerosol can.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spray-On Clothing

Return from the Stars, Stanislaw Lem · 1961

Garments applied to the body straight from an aerosol can.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Clothes sprayed straight onto the body would fit anyone at once and upset the garment trade; the real thing so far is a novelty, and I judged the promise.

Who is paid. People buy the cans, and the spray can be matched, so clothing brands with shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Stellene: A strong see-through material for building domes or even entire spacecraft.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stellene

The Planet Strappers, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1961

A strong see-through material for building domes or even entire spacecraft.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A strong see-through material fit for domes and whole spacecraft would change how windows, vehicles and buildings are made.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Plastex: A plaster-rubber blend that lets a home's structure change shape.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plastex

The Thousand Dreams of Stellavista, J.G. Ballard · 1962

A plaster-rubber blend that lets a home's structure change shape.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Walls that let a home change shape are a pleasant extra, not a change in the cost of housing.

Who is paid. Home owners pay for it, assuming they choose it, and a blend is easy to copy, so builders and building-supply firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Self-Healing Building: Structural walls that repair their own cracks when stressed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Self-Healing Building

The Thousand Dreams of Stellavista, J.G. Ballard · 1962

Structural walls that repair their own cracks when stressed.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Walls that mend their own cracks would cut the upkeep and risk of buildings and bridges.

Who is paid. Developers and owners buy it, and once the method is known the big builders and materials firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ice-Nine: A fictional crystal form of water that never melts, central to the novel's catastrophe.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ice-Nine

Cat's Cradle, Kurt Vonnegut, Jr. · 1963

A fictional crystal form of water that never melts, central to the novel's catastrophe.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A crystal that freezes all the water it touches is a hazard to the whole world, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Transparent, Frictionless Coating: A clear coating that is perfectly slick and cannot be penetrated.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Transparent, Frictionless Coating

Way Station, Clifford Simak · 1963

A clear coating that is perfectly slick and cannot be penetrated.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A clear coating that is perfectly slick and cannot be pierced would cut wear and protect surfaces across industry, which is more than an ordinary finish.

Who is paid. Manufacturers buy it, and being impenetrable does not stop a second maker, so the big materials firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Chalf (Quick-Scribe Powder): A self-arranging powder that forms written symbols on its own.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chalf (Quick-Scribe Powder)

The Tactful Saboteur, Frank Herbert · 1964

A self-arranging powder that forms written symbols on its own.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A powder that forms writing by itself is a neat way to take notes, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. People buy it as they buy pens and paper, and once the powder is understood many could make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Chalf-Memory Stick: A stick that arranges a special powder into readable text.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chalf-Memory Stick

The Tactful Saboteur, Frank Herbert · 1964

A stick that arranges a special powder into readable text.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A stick that sets the powder into text is the same note-taking convenience as the powder itself.

Who is paid. People buy it as they buy pens and paper, and once the powder is understood many could make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Flexible Stem: A long pliable tube that rapidly lengthens and shortens.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flexible Stem

The Killing Machine, Jack Vance · 1964

A long pliable tube that rapidly lengthens and shortens.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tube that quickly lengthens and shortens is a handy part for tools and machines.

Who is paid. Makers of tools and machines buy it, and many firms can make such a part.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Antithermal Shield: A protective material shielding people from extreme planetary heat.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Antithermal Shield

The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A protective material shielding people from extreme planetary heat.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Protection from extreme heat matters to the few who must work in such places; I assumed it is gear for those workers and not something everyone on a hot world must own.

Who is paid. Employers of people in hot places buy it, and makers of safety gear who already supply them can copy and sell it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cutteray: A laser tool for cutting, including in mining gear.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cutteray

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A laser tool for cutting, including in mining gear.

built in the 1960s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A beam that cuts is a better tool for mines and workshops, not a new industry.

Who is paid. Mines and workshops buy it, and many toolmakers can build such a cutter, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Dekon Type DCQ: A foam for decontaminating people or equipment.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dekon Type DCQ

Subspace Explorers, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1965

A foam for decontaminating people or equipment.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cleansing foam matters after spills and accidents, which is a niche supply.

Who is paid. Plants, ships and hospitals buy it, and many chemical firms can make such a foam.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Fanmetal: A strong metal used in structures that unfold by fanning out.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fanmetal

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A strong metal used in structures that unfold by fanning out.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A strong metal for structures that fold and unfold would cut the cost of shelters and vehicles that must travel light.

Who is paid. Vehicle and building firms buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established metal makers with furnaces and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Krimskell Fiber: A rope fibre whose knots grip harder the more it is pulled.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Krimskell Fiber

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A rope fibre whose knots grip harder the more it is pulled.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Unlike the very strong threads, this is only a rope whose knots hold tighter, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. Sailors, climbers and haulers buy it, and many rope makers could copy such a fibre.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Leybyrdite: An exceptionally hard crystalline metal.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Leybyrdite

Subspace Explorers, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1965

An exceptionally hard crystalline metal.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An exceptionally hard metal would cut wear and replacement costs in tools, machines and structures.

Who is paid. Makers of tools and machines buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established metal makers with furnaces and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Oil Lens: An optical element made of oil held in shape by a force field.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Oil Lens

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

An optical element made of oil held in shape by a force field.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lens of oil held by a field is a specialist part for instruments.

Who is paid. Instrument makers buy it, and once such fields exist any optics firm could make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Optical-Effect Suit: A garment that renders the wearer invisible.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Optical-Effect Suit

A Plague of Demons, Keith Laumer · 1965

A garment that renders the wearer invisible.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A suit that makes its wearer invisible would be prized by every army and spy service.

Who is paid. Governments pay, assuming the public may not buy it, and the firms that already hold military supply contracts make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Plasteel: A reinforced steel far tougher than the ordinary kind.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plasteel

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A reinforced steel far tougher than the ordinary kind.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A steel far tougher than the ordinary kind would change the cost of structures, vehicles and machines.

Who is paid. Builders and manufacturers buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established steel makers with furnaces and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Water Repellent Surface: A coating that sheds water completely.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Water Repellent Surface

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A coating that sheds water completely.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A coating that sheds water completely is a handy finish for cloth, glass and hulls.

Who is paid. Makers of such goods buy it, and many chemical firms can match a coating, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Flexible Armor Suit: A flexible pressure suit that stiffens into armour when struck.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flexible Armor Suit

Neutron Star, Larry Niven · 1966

A flexible pressure suit that stiffens into armour when struck.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A suit that hardens when struck protects those who face blows or debris, which is a niche.

Who is paid. I assumed armies, police and space crews are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold their equipment contracts would make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gauzy: An ultralight tent made from fabric only a single molecule thick.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gauzy

This Immortal, Roger Zelazny · 1966

An ultralight tent made from fabric only a single molecule thick.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tent that weighs almost nothing is a pleasure for campers and travellers.

Who is paid. Campers buy it, and once the fabric can be copied the outdoor brands and shops they already use collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of General Products Hull: An almost indestructible spaceship shell sold in standard sizes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

General Products Hull

Neutron Star, Larry Niven · 1966

An almost indestructible spaceship shell sold in standard sizes.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A ship's shell that almost nothing can break would be worth an industry to anyone who travels or hauls in space.

Who is paid. Ship owners buy it, and though the story has a single firm selling it, nothing in the description stops a second maker, since a shell being hard to cut open and study does not keep others from learning to make it; I assumed the method gets out, so established shipbuilders and materials firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Martian Print Amoeba: An alien organism that copies manufactured goods.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Martian Print Amoeba

Now Wait For Last Year, Philip K. Dick · 1966

An alien organism that copies manufactured goods.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A creature that copies any manufactured thing would make most goods nearly free, assuming the copies are sound.

Who is paid. Assuming people can keep one as they would a machine, they buy it, and a creature that breeds cannot be held by any one seller.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Photosensitive Pigment: A coating that remains empty until light records a scene on it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Photosensitive Pigment

Cry Hope, Cry Fury!, J.G. Ballard · 1966

A coating that remains empty until light records a scene on it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A coating that records a scene is a way of taking pictures, judged here as a paint and not as the whole camera trade.

Who is paid. Printers and picture makers buy it, and many chemical firms can match a coating, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tensile Memory Polarized Matter: A material that can switch between several preset shapes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tensile Memory Polarized Matter

Babel-17, Samuel R. Delany · 1966

A material that can switch between several preset shapes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A material that switches between preset shapes lets one part or tool do the work of many across several industries.

Who is paid. Makers of tools, vehicles and goods buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Architectural Coral: Buildings grown into planned shapes by tiny reef-building organisms.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Architectural Coral

A Gift From Earth, Larry Niven · 1968

Buildings grown into planned shapes by tiny reef-building organisms.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Buildings that grow themselves into shape would sharply cut the cost of putting up homes.

Who is paid. People buy it as a home, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the growers, builders and landowners that already hold stock, sites and the trade of housing collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mining Worm (Organic): A bioengineered worm bred to dig through rock and extract ore.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mining Worm (Organic)

A Gift From Earth, Larry Niven · 1968

A bioengineered worm bred to dig through rock and extract ore.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A creature that digs rock and brings out ore would cut the cost of mining.

Who is paid. Mining firms buy it, and a living tool breeds and spreads, so the miners and suppliers already in the trade collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sinclair Molecule Chain: An ultra-thin single-strand fibre prized for extraordinary tensile strength.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sinclair Molecule Chain

A Gift From Earth, Larry Niven · 1968

An ultra-thin single-strand fibre prized for extraordinary tensile strength.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A thread of extraordinary pulling strength would change the cost of cables, bridges and lifting things to space.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Slow Glass (Scenedow): A pane that holds light for years, so scenes emerge long after they happened.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Slow Glass (Scenedow)

Light of Other Days, Bob Shaw · 1968

A pane that holds light for years, so scenes emerge long after they happened.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A window that shows a lovely scene from long ago is a luxury for homes and offices.

Who is paid. People buy panes for their homes, and the glass must sit for years in front of a fine view, so those who own such land collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Device Replication: Making equipment on demand from stored patterns to save cargo room aboard ships.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Device Replication

The Man in the Maze, Robert Silverberg · 1969

Making equipment on demand from stored patterns to save cargo room aboard ships.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. It is the same kind of machine as the make-anything machines, but it is described only as making ship's equipment on demand to save cargo room, which changes supply costs for fleets and remote sites.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy the machines because the description puts them aboard ships, and as with the other make-anything machines a machine that makes equipment from stored patterns can make its own parts and the patterns can be passed around, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Memory Plastic: A plastic that reshapes itself into stored forms when told to.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Memory Plastic

Death by Ecstasy, Larry Niven · 1969

A plastic that reshapes itself into stored forms when told to.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A plastic that takes stored shapes on command lets one part or tool do the work of many across several industries.

Who is paid. Makers of tools, vehicles and goods buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Nothing: An extremely hard material made by precisely taking matter away.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nothing

It was Nothing - Really!, Theodore Sturgeon · 1969

An extremely hard material made by precisely taking matter away.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An extremely hard material would change cutting tools, bearings and wearing parts across industry.

Who is paid. Toolmakers and manufacturers buy it, and nothing in the description stops a second maker, so the big materials firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Bio-Fabric: Living clothing that continually reshapes itself to suit its wearer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bio-Fabric

Say Goodby to the Wind, J.G. Ballard · 1970

Living clothing that continually reshapes itself to suit its wearer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Clothing that reshapes itself is a pleasure and a fashion, not a need.

Who is paid. People buy it to wear, and living cloth can be bred by others, so fashion houses with known names and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Flashlight Laser: A handheld beam tool used both to light the way and to cut.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flashlight Laser

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

A handheld beam tool used both to light the way and to cut.

already existed before the story (1965)

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A hand tool that both lights and cuts is a convenience for workers and travellers.

Who is paid. I assumed it is bought mainly as a work tool, and many toolmakers can build such a cutter, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Nearleather: Synthetic imitation leather.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nearleather

What's Become of Screwloose?, Ron Goulart · 1970

Synthetic imitation leather.

already existed before the story (the 1960s)

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Man-made leather replaces one costly material in shoes, bags and seats.

Who is paid. People buy the goods made from it, and many chemical firms can make such a material, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Scrith: A megastructure building material of almost impossible strength.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Scrith

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

A megastructure building material of almost impossible strength.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A material of almost impossible strength would let far larger structures be built and change heavy construction.

Who is paid. Builders buy it, and great strength alone does not stop a second maker, so the big materials firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Shadow Square Wire: An extremely thin, light and strong filament.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Shadow Square Wire

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

An extremely thin, light and strong filament.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An extremely thin, light and strong filament would change the cost of cables, bridges, aircraft and lifting things to space.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Impact Suit: A flexible bodysuit that stiffens into armour when struck hard.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Impact Suit

The Flying Sorcerers, David Gerrold (w/L, Niven · 1971

A flexible bodysuit that stiffens into armour when struck hard.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A suit that hardens when struck protects those who face blows or falls, which is a niche.

Who is paid. I assumed armies, police and space crews are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold their equipment contracts would make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of City of Glass: A whole city built from distinctive structural glass and ceramic.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

City of Glass

The Godmakers, Frank Herbert · 1972

A whole city built from distinctive structural glass and ceramic.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A city is not a product, so I judged the structural glass it is built from, which is one building material among many.

Who is paid. Builders buy the glass and ceramic, and established makers of building materials can all supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Armor Cloth: An exceptionally resistant man-made textile.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Armor Cloth

The Mote in God's Eye, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1974

An exceptionally resistant man-made textile.

built in the 1970s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A very resistant cloth protects people in risky jobs, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Employers buy it for their workers, and the fibre and workwear firms that already supply them make it without any one keeping others out.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Metal Paste: A squeezable conductive metal compound dispensed from a tube.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Metal Paste

The Mote in God's Eye, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1974

A squeezable conductive metal compound dispensed from a tube.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Conductive metal from a tube is a handy repair and assembly supply.

Who is paid. Workshops and electronics makers buy it, and many chemical firms can match a paste, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Superconductor of Heat: A light metal that soaks up heat without its temperature rising.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Superconductor of Heat

The Mote in God's Eye, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1974

A light metal that soaks up heat without its temperature rising.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A light metal that soaks up heat without warming would change the cooling of engines, machines and electronics.

Who is paid. Manufacturers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Personal Smelter: A home device that melts scrap metal into a bar of certified worth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Personal Smelter

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

A home device that melts scrap metal into a bar of certified worth.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Melting scrap at home into a bar is a convenience for a few people.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and a small furnace is easy to make; I assumed the certifying is not held by one firm.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Bubble City: Large undersea domes housing whole communities.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bubble City

My Name is Legion, Roger Zelazny · 1976

Large undersea domes housing whole communities.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Whole communities living on the seabed would open a new kind of place to settle, which is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. A dome that keeps the sea out shelters everyone inside at once, so a government pays for it, and the marine builders that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Nemourlon: A synthetic material used to make protective body armour.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nemourlon

West of Honor, Jerry Pournelle · 1976

A synthetic material used to make protective body armour.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A material for body armour serves soldiers and guards, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Armies and police pay, assuming they are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold armour contracts supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sandtrout Glove: A glove made of living creatures that cling to the hand.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sandtrout Glove

Children of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1976

A glove made of living creatures that cling to the hand.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A living glove is a curiosity or a piece of protective wear for a few; the description names no wider use.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, I assume, and living creatures breed and spread, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Chameleon Cloth: Fabric that shifts its colour and pattern to blend into the background.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chameleon Cloth

Dying of the Light, George RR Martin · 1977

Fabric that shifts its colour and pattern to blend into the background.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Cloth that blends into the background helps soldiers and hunters hide but still leaves them visible up close, so it is a niche.

Who is paid. Armies are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold uniform and equipment contracts would make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Glowstone: A stone that soaks up daylight and glows through the night.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Glowstone

Dying of the Light, George RR Martin · 1977

A stone that soaks up daylight and glows through the night.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A stone that glows at night is a pleasant way to light paths and rooms without power.

Who is paid. People buy it for homes and gardens, and assuming the stone is common, many quarries could sell it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Trimagniscope: A scanner that shows a clear slice through the inside of any object.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Trimagniscope

Inherit the Stars, James P. Hogan · 1977

A scanner that shows a clear slice through the inside of any object.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Seeing a clear slice through any object helps inspection and repair, which is a specialist tool.

Who is paid. Factories and laboratories buy it, and the method can be copied, so established instrument makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of 1D Diamond Crystal: An unbroken diamond thread only a few atoms across, akin to a carbon nanotube.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

1D Diamond Crystal

The Fountains of Paradise, Arthur C. Clarke · 1978

An unbroken diamond thread only a few atoms across, akin to a carbon nanotube.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A thread far stronger than steel for its weight would change the cost of cables, bridges, aircraft and lifting things to space.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Deposition (3D Printing): A fabrication method that assembles any object up from individual molecules.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Deposition (3D Printing)

Assassin, James P. Hogan · 1978

A fabrication method that assembles any object up from individual molecules.

built in 1984, 6 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Building any object from molecules, far beyond today's printers, would change how nearly all goods are made.

Who is paid. Assuming a home or shop machine, people buy it and its feedstock, and a machine that makes anything can make more of itself, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hyperfilament: An ultra-strong ribbon or thread with enormous resistance to pulling forces.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hyperfilament

The Fountains of Paradise, Arthur C. Clarke · 1978

An ultra-strong ribbon or thread with enormous resistance to pulling forces.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A thread with enormous pulling strength would change the cost of cables, bridges, aircraft and lifting things to space.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spinnerettes: A reel device that pays out and rewinds an ultra-fine filament.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spinnerettes

The Fountains of Paradise, Arthur C. Clarke · 1978

A reel device that pays out and rewinds an ultra-fine filament.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A reel for a very fine thread is a tool that goes with the thread, not an industry.

Who is paid. Users of the thread buy it, and any toolmaker can build a reel, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Structural Scanning: A scanner that captures a detailed three-dimensional map of an object's inner makeup.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Structural Scanning

Assassin, James P. Hogan · 1978

A scanner that captures a detailed three-dimensional map of an object's inner makeup.

already existed before the story (1972)

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Mapping the inside of an object in detail helps inspection and design, which is a specialist tool.

Who is paid. Factories and laboratories buy it, and the method can be copied, so established instrument makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Bulerite: A miracle construction material that turns out to carry concealed drawbacks.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bulerite

Macrolife, George Zebrowski · 1979

A miracle construction material that turns out to carry concealed drawbacks.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged on its promise as a wonder building material it would change building costs, though the story says hidden flaws spoil it.

Who is paid. Builders buy it, and a material recipe gets copied, so established makers of building materials collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Conductive Film: A sprayable coating that forms a wire able to carry a signal.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Conductive Film

The Face, Jack Vance · 1979

A sprayable coating that forms a wire able to carry a signal.

built in the 1990s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A spray that lays down a wire is handy for repairs and electronics, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. Electronics makers and repairers buy it, and many chemical firms can mix such a spray.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Gundarium: An exceptionally tough composite used to armour giant piloted machines.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gundarium

Mobile Suit Gundam, Yoshiyuki Tomino · 1979

An exceptionally tough composite used to armour giant piloted machines.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A far tougher armour for war machines would change what an army's machines can survive.

Who is paid. Unlike the general-purpose alloys, this is armour, so armies pay and the firms that already hold weapons contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Receptor Tape: A thin bendable strip that works as a sound pickup.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Receptor Tape

The Face, Jack Vance · 1979

A thin bendable strip that works as a sound pickup.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A bendable strip that picks up sound is a handy part for recording and listening gear.

Who is paid. Equipment makers buy it, and many electronics firms can make such a strip, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Absolute Black: A coating so dark it swallows essentially every ray of light striking it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Absolute Black

Restaurant at the End of the Universe, Douglas Adams · 1980

A coating so dark it swallows essentially every ray of light striking it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A perfectly dark coating helps telescopes, cameras and a few art and design uses, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Instrument makers buy it, and a coating can be studied and matched by many paint and chemical firms, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Fuligin: A fabric dye of a shade deeper than ordinary black.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fuligin

The Shadow of the Torturer, Gene Wolfe · 1980

A fabric dye of a shade deeper than ordinary black.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A dye darker than black is a matter of fashion and ceremony, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Cloth makers buy it, and a dye can be studied and matched by many chemical firms, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mechanical Mole: A self-contained boring machine that cuts large tunnels.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mechanical Mole

Oath of Fealty, Jerry Pournelle (w/L. Niven · 1981

A self-contained boring machine that cuts large tunnels.

already existed before the story (the 1970s)

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Cheap fast tunnelling would change the cost of railways, roads, mines and pipes.

Who is paid. Construction and mining firms buy it, and heavy-machine makers with plants and service crews can each build one, so they collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ridulian Crystal Sheets: Extremely strong crystalline panes of remarkable thinness.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ridulian Crystal Sheets

God Emperor of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1981

Extremely strong crystalline panes of remarkable thinness.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Extremely strong panes of great thinness would change glazing, screens and light structures.

Who is paid. Builders and manufacturers buy them, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Skinsuit

Millenium, John Varley · 1983

A garment worn over the whole body that acts as a second, synthetic skin.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A whole-body second skin is special clothing for a few uses.

Who is paid. People buy it to wear, I assume, and the garment can be copied, so clothing firms with brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Biological Circuit Fabrication: Growing electronic circuitry through living biological processes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Biological Circuit Fabrication

The Official Handbook of the Marvel Universe, Author Unknown · 1984

Growing electronic circuitry through living biological processes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Growing circuits in place of building them in costly plants would change the cost of electronics.

Who is paid. Device makers buy the circuits, and once the method spreads the electronics firms with designs and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mimetic Polycarbon Suit: Fabric that shifts its colour and pattern to show stored pictures or what a camera sees.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mimetic Polycarbon Suit

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

Fabric that shifts its colour and pattern to show stored pictures or what a camera sees.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Cloth that shows pictures is a fashion and display novelty; it shows images, so I judged it as display clothing and not as hiding gear.

Who is paid. People buy it to wear, assuming it is sold openly, and the cloth can be copied, so clothing brands with shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Shiftsuit: Gear that alters its look to match its surroundings and hide the wearer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Shiftsuit

Matadora, Steve Perry · 1986

Gear that alters its look to match its surroundings and hide the wearer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Gear that blends into its surroundings helps soldiers and hunters, and it only blends in without making the wearer vanish.

Who is paid. Armies pay, assuming they are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold military supply contracts make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Superacid: Programmable solvents that dissolve chosen substances while leaving others untouched.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Superacid

Nanotime, Bart Kosko · 1987

Programmable solvents that dissolve chosen substances while leaving others untouched.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Solvents that dissolve only chosen substances would change mining, recycling and chemical making.

Who is paid. Industrial firms buy them, and once the method is known the big chemical firms with plants and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Flickercladding: A robot skin that can soak up light or glow as required.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flickercladding

Wetware, Rudy Rucker · 1988

A robot skin that can soak up light or glow as required.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A skin that soaks up light or glows gives machines power and display, which is a feature and not an industry.

Who is paid. Robot makers buy it, and once understood many materials firms could make such a skin.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Inert Resin: A protective coating that frees seaside and offshore structures from upkeep.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Inert Resin

Islands in the Net, Bruce Sterling · 1988

A protective coating that frees seaside and offshore structures from upkeep.

already existed before the story (the 1960s)

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A coating that truly ends upkeep on seaside and offshore structures, beyond what today's coatings do, would remove a heavy cost for ports, rigs and ships.

Who is paid. Owners of ports, rigs and ships buy it, and once matched by rivals the established coating firms that already supply them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Lunar Concrete: Building material made chiefly from regolith scooped off the Moon.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lunar Concrete

Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988

Building material made chiefly from regolith scooped off the Moon.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Concrete from Moon soil matters only to those building on the Moon, which is a niche.

Who is paid. I assumed space agencies pay for most Moon building, and their usual contractors can all mix it from soil lying free.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Monomol Mesh Armor: Flexible protective mesh for body areas that must bend, such as knees and elbows.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Monomol Mesh Armor

Queen of Angels, Greg Bear · 1990

Flexible protective mesh for body areas that must bend, such as knees and elbows.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Flexible armour for joints is a useful part of protective kit, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Armies and police pay, assuming they are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold armour contracts supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sonomagnetic Fabric: A textile that harvests energy from surrounding sound.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sonomagnetic Fabric

Earth, David Brin · 1990

A textile that harvests energy from surrounding sound.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Cloth that gathers power from surrounding sound would keep small worn devices running without a battery, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. Makers of clothing and gadgets buy it, and many textile firms could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Arachnofiber Uniforms: Protective work clothing woven from very strong fibre for delivery workers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Arachnofiber Uniforms

Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992

Protective work clothing woven from very strong fibre for delivery workers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Tough work clothing saves some injuries for people in risky jobs, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Employers buy it for their workers, and the fibre and workwear firms that already supply them make it without any one keeping others out.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Reality Graphics: A design system where the finished digital model directly becomes the manufactured object.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Reality Graphics

A Fire Upon The Deep, Vernor Vinge · 1992

A design system where the finished digital model directly becomes the manufactured object.

already existed before the story (the 1980s)

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Unlike the make-anything machines, this is described as a design system and not as a machine that builds any object from raw matter, so I judged it as a tool that lets firms go straight from a finished design to the made thing, which changes what it costs to bring goods to market.

Who is paid. Firms that design and make goods buy it, since a design system is a tool of the trade and not a home appliance, and once the method is known the established makers of design tools and factory machines, who already have those customers, collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sintered Armorgel: A protective material that stays soft in normal motion but stiffens instantly when struck.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sintered Armorgel

Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992

A protective material that stays soft in normal motion but stiffens instantly when struck.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Soft armour that stiffens when struck is better protective kit, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Armies and police pay, assuming they are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold armour contracts supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Transdress: A see-through garment whose surface can display countless changing designs.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Transdress

The California Voodoo Game, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes · 1992

A see-through garment whose surface can display countless changing designs.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A garment that shows changing designs is a fashion novelty.

Who is paid. People buy it to wear, and the cloth can be copied, so clothing brands with shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Semisentient Plastic: A tough protective film that shields and preserves whatever it covers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Semisentient Plastic

Ring, Stephen Baxter · 1994

A tough protective film that shields and preserves whatever it covers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tough film that protects and preserves what it covers is better packaging.

Who is paid. Shippers and stores buy it, and many plastics firms could match a film, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Smart Rope: A multi-strand cable that bends and moves on command from a control glove.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Smart Rope

Heavy Weather, Bruce Sterling · 1994

A multi-strand cable that bends and moves on command from a control glove.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cable that moves on command is a clever tool for climbers, riggers and rescue crews.

Who is paid. Working crews buy it, and many equipment firms could build one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Fabricules: Textile made of tiny particles that keep themselves spotless without washing.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fabricules

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

Textile made of tiny particles that keep themselves spotless without washing.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Cloth that never needs washing would save most homes a regular chore and its cost.

Who is paid. People buy it as clothing, and once the method spreads the clothing brands and shops they already buy from collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Filter Wheel: A molecular sorting device that pulls one chosen compound out of a fluid in pure form.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Filter Wheel

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

A molecular sorting device that pulls one chosen compound out of a fluid in pure form.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Pulling any chosen compound out of a fluid in pure form would change the cost of clean water, chemicals and mining.

Who is paid. Chemical, water and mining firms buy it, and once it can be copied the makers of process equipment who already supply them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Lithocule: Microscopic smart bricks that assemble themselves into structures.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lithocule

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

Microscopic smart bricks that assemble themselves into structures.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2080s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Tiny bricks that build structures by themselves would change the cost of construction.

Who is paid. Builders buy them, and once they can be copied the established makers of building materials collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Matter Compiler: A machine that assembles finished goods from individual atoms following a digital blueprint.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Matter Compiler

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

A machine that assembles finished goods from individual atoms following a digital blueprint.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Building finished goods from atoms to a plan would change how nearly everything is made.

Who is paid. Assuming a home or shop machine, people buy it and its feedstock, and a machine that makes anything can make more of itself, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mite: A dust-sized machine built for one specific job.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mite

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

A dust-sized machine built for one specific job.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Dust-sized machines each built for a job would be a new kind of tool for cleaning, repair, sensing and medicine.

Who is paid. Firms buy them for their work, assuming many jobs are served, and once one maker shows how, established equipment makers copy and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Toner: Debris from worn-out molecular machines that accumulates as dust.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Toner

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

Debris from worn-out molecular machines that accumulates as dust.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is dust left by worn-out tiny machines, a waste and not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold; it is debris that gathers by itself.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Nanotech Buildings: Huge towers grown from molecularly engineered fibres.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nanotech Buildings

Idoru, William Gibson · 1996

Huge towers grown from molecularly engineered fibres.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Growing huge towers from engineered fibre would change the cost of building, which is more than simply building taller.

Who is paid. Developers buy them, as with towers today, and once the method is known the big builders with land and crews collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Graffiti-Eating Finish: A self-cleaning wall coating that breaks down paint sprayed onto it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Graffiti-Eating Finish

All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999

A self-cleaning wall coating that breaks down paint sprayed onto it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Walls that clean off sprayed paint save owners a recurring nuisance.

Who is paid. Building owners and cities buy it, and a coating can be studied and matched by many paint firms.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Matter Editation: A way to freely rewrite the properties of atoms.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Matter Editation

Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999

A way to freely rewrite the properties of atoms.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Unlike the make-anything machines this makes materials and not finished goods, so turning common stuff into any scarce material changes costs across the industries that use materials without changing how most people live.

Who is paid. Manufacturers and miners buy the process, and since it is a method and not a machine that can copy itself, I assumed it spreads once shown and the firms with plants and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Nano-Paste: Swarms of microscopic machines that turn nearby raw matter into a chosen item.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nano-Paste

Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999

Swarms of microscopic machines that turn nearby raw matter into a chosen item.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Tiny machines that turn nearby matter into any chosen item would make most goods nearly free.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, assuming it is sold for home use, and a thing that makes anything makes more of itself, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Nanofax: Scanning a solid object in one place and reproducing a duplicate of it somewhere far away.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nanofax

All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999

Scanning a solid object in one place and reproducing a duplicate of it somewhere far away.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Copying any solid object at a far-off place makes most goods nearly free and ends much shipping.

Who is paid. People buy or use it, assuming a home or shop machine, and a machine that copies anything copies itself, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Organic Superlubricant: An adaptive biological lubricant that improves itself with use.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Organic Superlubricant

Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999

An adaptive biological lubricant that improves itself with use.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lubricant that improves with use is a better supply for machines, not a new industry.

Who is paid. Machine owners buy it, and a living lubricant can be grown by many suppliers, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Silksteel: A fibre that is both extremely strong under tension and very flexible.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Silksteel

Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999

A fibre that is both extremely strong under tension and very flexible.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A fibre both very strong and very flexible would change the cost of cables, aircraft and structures.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Floating Island: Huge man-made platforms that float on the ocean and host people and buildings.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Floating Island

Saturn's Race, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes) · 2000

Huge man-made platforms that float on the ocean and host people and buildings.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Floating land would suit a few while dry land stays cheaper, so I judged it a niche.

Who is paid. Residents pay for a place aboard, and large builders and shipyards who can raise such structures collect, since none can stop the others.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Bullet-guard Overalls: Work clothes made from a fabric tough enough to resist gunfire.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bullet-guard Overalls

Kiln People, David Brin · 2002

Work clothes made from a fabric tough enough to resist gunfire.

already existed before the story (the 1970s)

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Work clothes that resist gunfire protect people in dangerous jobs, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Employers buy it for their workers, and the fibre and workwear firms that already supply them make it without any one keeping others out.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Durachrome: An extremely tough metal alloy for armoured vehicles.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Durachrome

Honor of the Regiment, Keith Laumer · 2002

An extremely tough metal alloy for armoured vehicles.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A far tougher alloy for armoured vehicles would change what an army's machines can survive.

Who is paid. Unlike the general-purpose alloys, this is armour, so armies pay and the firms that already hold vehicle contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Biolution: A sweeping shift toward making goods with engineered living organisms.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Biolution

The Tels, Paul Black · 2003

A sweeping shift toward making goods with engineered living organisms.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. This is a shift and not a product, so I judged the method behind it: making goods with engineered organisms would change costs across several industries.

Who is paid. Manufacturers pay for the organisms and vats, and living tools can be regrown by others, so firms with plants and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Goat/Spider Silk: Livestock engineered to make spider-silk protein that is spun into very strong thread.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Goat/Spider Silk

Oryx and Crake, Margaret Atwood · 2003

Livestock engineered to make spider-silk protein that is spun into very strong thread.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Very strong thread from farm animals would change the cost of ropes, cables, protective cloth and structures.

Who is paid. Makers of cloth and cable buy it, and the animals breed and spread, so established fibre firms with plants and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Illuminum: A self-luminous metal that gives off its own glow.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Illuminum

Altered Carbon, Richard Morgan · 2003

A self-luminous metal that gives off its own glow.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A metal that glows by itself is a decorative and lighting convenience.

Who is paid. Builders and designers buy it, and once understood many metal firms could make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Self-Cleaning Gym Suit: Athletic clothing that eliminates the cause of sweaty smells as you wear it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Self-Cleaning Gym Suit

Oryx and Crake, Margaret Atwood · 2003

Athletic clothing that eliminates the cause of sweaty smells as you wear it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Sports clothes that do not smell are a convenience, and narrower than cloth that never needs washing.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and the treatment can be copied, so sportswear brands with shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Dumb Matter: Plain material that has not been turned into computing substrate.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dumb Matter

Accelerando, Charles Stross · 2005

Plain material that has not been turned into computing substrate.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is only a name for ordinary matter that has not been altered, not a thing made or sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sprayrock: A sprayable mix that sets into a stone-hard layer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sprayrock

Pushing Ice, Alastair Reynolds · 2005

A sprayable mix that sets into a stone-hard layer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A spray that sets stone-hard is a useful building supply, as sprayed concrete already is.

Who is paid. Builders buy it, and many firms can mix such a spray, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of House-of-Cards Construction: Buildings whose computers actively rebalance the structure to stay up in quakes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

House-of-Cards Construction

Rainbows End, Vernor Vinge · 2006

Buildings whose computers actively rebalance the structure to stay up in quakes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Buildings that hold themselves up by active control could use far less material and survive quakes, changing building costs.

Who is paid. Developers buy it, and the method can be copied, so established builders and engineering firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Orphids: Self-copying microscopic machines that spread across the whole planet in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Orphids

Postsingular, Rudy Rucker · 2007

Self-copying microscopic machines that spread across the whole planet in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. By the description these machines copy themselves and spread over the whole world unaided, so whatever good they do in the story reaches everyone free and there is nothing anyone would pay for.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold: unlike the make-anything machines, which someone must first buy, these arrive by themselves, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Distributed Assembly Plant: Parts made and joined by many unknown contributors spread across a network rather than one factory.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Distributed Assembly Plant

Daemon, Daniel Suarez · 2009

Parts made and joined by many unknown contributors spread across a network rather than one factory.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Making and joining parts across a network of many small shops would change the cost of setting up manufacturing.

Who is paid. Firms wanting goods made pay the scattered makers, and since anyone with tools can join, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Wildcode: A wasteland made of runaway microscopic machines, a hazard in the story's setting.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wildcode

The Fractal Prince, Hannu Rajaniemi · 2012

A wasteland made of runaway microscopic machines, a hazard in the story's setting.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a wasteland of runaway tiny machines, a hazard and not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold; people avoid it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Vehicle Seeds: Packaged materials and instructions that build a complete vehicle from local raw resources.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vehicle Seeds

Killing Titan, Greg Bear · 2015

Packaged materials and instructions that build a complete vehicle from local raw resources.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A package that builds a whole vehicle from local materials would upset vehicle making and shipping wherever a finished vehicle is costly to deliver, but it makes vehicles only.

Who is paid. The description names no buyer, so I assumed the buyers are firms working far from any factory, such as mines, expeditions and settlements, because building from local raw resources matters most where a finished vehicle cannot easily be brought; and unlike the pattern machine aboard ships a seed is used up in building and is not said to make more seeds, so vehicle firms with designs and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Superscraper: Extremely tall towers rising far beyond today's tallest buildings.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Superscraper

New York 2140, Kim Stanley Robinson · 2017

Extremely tall towers rising far beyond today's tallest buildings.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Much taller towers add floor space in a few crowded cities without changing what building costs.

Who is paid. Developers pay for them, and the firms that already own city land and do big construction collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Ideas from Technovelgy: Science Fiction Timeline of Inventions (Bill Christensen) (archived copy), as compiled in Not Boring: Sci-Fi Idea Bank (Packy McCormick); names, works, authors and years are theirs and every description is this site's rewording. Categories, arrival decades and profit are judged by AI models, not people. Method