Kurzweil expects websites to become visual and audio virtual spaces by 2009, staffed by simulated people good enough for sales and booking work.
Ray Kurzweil · by 2009
From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005
Kokotajlo expects chatbot use by 2026 to span a user base in the hundreds of millions, as assistant and companion apps merge.
Daniel Kokotajlo · by 2026 · hundreds of millions of people talk regularly to chatbots of some sort
From What 2026 Looks Like, Daniel Kokotajlo, 2021
Kurzweil expects nanobots by 2030 to deliver shared, full-immersion virtual reality engaging every sense, so that visiting a website means stepping inside it.
Ray Kurzweil · by 2030 · going to a web site will mean entering a full immersion virtual reality environment
From The Law of Accelerating Returns, Ray Kurzweil, 2001; The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005
Imagined, oldest first
How large a prize, and which seller keeps the rest
Each idea is judged as if it worked the way its story promises: how large a prize it would be, who would pay, and which seller would keep what is left once buyers have had their gain. Choose a cell to see only those ideas; each count is the cards that cell shows. Every placing is a model's judgement, not a reading.
Seller
A vast prize
A large prize
A small prize
No prize
No seller keeps much
·
·
The maker keeps the rest
·
·
Existing firms keep the rest
·
Permit holders keep the rest
·
·
Nothing is sold
·
·
·
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Whispering Gallery
Journey to the Center of the Earth, Jules Verne · 1864
Rooms curved so that a quiet voice carries clearly to a distant point.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A room shaped so a whisper carries is a curiosity for visitors; unlike the prison's chance echo, it is something a builder can be hired to make.
Who is paid. Owners of halls and museums pay for it, and since any skilled builder can shape such a room, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Communicate with Extraterrestrials
From the Earth to the Moon, Jules Verne · 1867
A scheme for signalling to living beings on distant worlds.
built in the 1960s, about 100 years after it was imagined
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Signalling to beings on other worlds satisfies curiosity and earns nothing unless someone answers.
Who is paid. Nobody could be charged for it one by one, so a government pays, and the observatories and builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Home News Printer
The Senator's Daughter, Edward Page Mitchell · 1879
A household machine that produces a paper copy of whichever newspaper you pick, sent over a wire.
built in the 1970s, about 100 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Printing the paper at home saves a delivery and is a convenience for readers.
Who is paid. Readers pay for the machine and the paper they pick, the machine is easy to copy, and the newspapers that own the news collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Telephonoscope
Le Vingtième Siècle (The Twentieth Century), Albert Robida · 1883
A screen that carries live images and sound from far away into the home.
built in the 1930s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Seeing distant events live at home changed how most people spend their evenings and learn the news.
Who is paid. Households buy sets and pay for channels, and since sets are easy to copy, the firms that own the factories, the stations and the networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Telephonic Music Room
Looking Backward, Edward Bellamy · 1888
Rooms wired to carry live concerts from distant halls so listeners can hear them whenever they like.
built in the 2000s, about 120 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Hearing any concert at home whenever you like is how most music now reaches people, and it is worth an industry.
Who is paid. Listeners pay a regular fee, and since the wiring is easy to copy, the firms that already own the music and the lines into homes collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Atmospheric Advertising
In the Year 2889, Jules Verne · 1889
Projecting huge commercial messages onto the clouds so entire cities can see them.
built in the 2020s, about 140 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Messages on the clouds are one more place to show advertisements, and they depend on the weather.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and anyone with a strong projector can light up the sky, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Live News
In the Year 2889, Jules Verne · 1889
Reporters speak the day's events directly to subscribers as they happen rather than printing them.
built in the 1980s, about 100 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. News spoken to subscribers as it happens is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Subscribers pay, sending speech is easy to copy, and the firms that already gather the news collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Phonotelephote
In the Year 2889, Jules Verne · 1889
A device for two-way conversation where each party both hears and sees the other.
built in the 2010s, about 130 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Seeing the person you talk to changes how families keep in touch and how firms meet.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the screens and cameras are easy to copy, so the firms that own the networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Recorded News
In the Year 2889, Jules Verne · 1889
Storing spoken news so listeners can replay it whenever they choose.
built in the 1990s, about 110 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Getting the news at the moment and place you choose is a convenience over waiting for the paper.
Who is paid. Readers pay; the machine is easy to copy, so the news firms that already gather the reports collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Planetary Telegraphing
In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897
Exchanging messages with beings believed to live on the Sun's other planets.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Messages to beings only believed to live on other planets satisfy curiosity and earn nothing unless someone answers.
Who is paid. Nobody could be charged for it one by one, so a government pays, and the observatories and builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Aerial Telegraph
Edison's Conquest of Mars, Garrett P. Serviss · 1898
Radio links letting people in sealed suits talk to each other.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Radio between people in sealed suits is essential to the few who work in such suits and of no use to anyone else.
Who is paid. Assuming the suits are worn by space crews and the like, a government pays, and the firms that already supply suits and radios to such programmes collect because the radio is easy to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Babble Machine
When the Sleeper Wakes, H.G. Wells · 1899
Loudspeaker devices that pour a constant stream of news, gossip and propaganda at the public.
built in 1927, 28 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A constant stream of news and persuasion aimed at the public is broadcasting, which is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Advertisers and political interests pay to reach the crowd, the description names no scarce channels and the loudspeakers are easy to copy, so the news firms that already own the audience and the places the speakers stand collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
DVD/VCR (Entertainment Player)
When the Sleeper Wakes, H.G. Wells · 1899
A machine that plays back stored films or shows for viewing on demand.
built in 1996, 97 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Watching stored films whenever you choose is home entertainment, an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Households buy the player and the films, players are easy to copy, and the studios that own the films collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Kinetiscope Appliance
When the Sleeper Wakes, H.G. Wells · 1899
A pocket-sized device that displays a range of pictures, both real and invented.
built in the 2010s, about 120 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A personal screen for watching films and pictures anywhere is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; many firms can make the device, so those who already own the films and the ways to deliver them collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Moving Picture Player
When the Sleeper Wakes, H.G. Wells · 1899
A personal screen machine that replays recorded films for one viewer.
built in 1996, 97 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A personal screen for watching films and pictures anywhere is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; many firms can make the device, so those who already own the films and the ways to deliver them collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Interplanetary Radiograph Station
On The Martian Way, Harry Gore Bishop · 1907
A chain of radio relay stations linking the planets into one messaging network.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Assuming the planets are settled as in the story, a message link among them carries all their trade and news, an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Assuming firms and settlers pay by the message, nothing described stops a rival from building its own stations, so the carriers and fleet owners who already hold the home networks where every message starts and ends, and the ships to place and tend stations, collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cinematophote (Blue Optic Plate)
The Machine Stops, E.M. Forster · 1909
A flat portable display small enough to hold in one hand.
built in the 2010s, about 110 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A flat screen you hold in one hand is the face of nearly every modern personal device, an industry of its own.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Video Communicator
The Machine Stops, E.M. Forster · 1909
Carries sound and moving pictures together so callers can watch one another while talking.
built in the 2010s, about 110 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Seeing the person you are talking to is something most people now use, and it is worth an industry.
Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for the device and the line, and since many can make the device, the firms that already own the phone networks and handset brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Personalized News
Ralph 124c 41 +, Hugo Gernsback · 1911
Delivers a news feed tailored to each reader's interests.
built in 2002, 91 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. News sorted to each reader's interests changes how the news trade reaches people.
Who is paid. Readers pay by subscription; the sorting is easy to copy, so those who already hold the reporting and the audience collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Telautograph
Ralph 124c 41 +, Hugo Gernsback · 1911
Sends a copy of a written page over wires to a distant machine that reproduces it.
built in the 1960s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Sending a copy of a written page down a wire in moments saved offices days of post and was worth an industry.
Who is paid. Offices buy the machines, and since many firms can make them and all must work together, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Telephot
Ralph 124c 41 +, Hugo Gernsback · 1911
A telephone with a screen so callers see as well as hear each other.
built in 2007, 96 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Seeing the person you are talking to is something most people now use, and it is worth an industry.
Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for the device and the line, and since many can make the device, the firms that already own the phone networks and handset brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pocket wireless phone
John Jones's Dollar, Harry Stephen Keeler · 1915
A cordless telephone small enough to carry in a pocket anywhere.
built in 1973, 58 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A phone carried everywhere changes how most people live and work.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; handsets are easy to copy, so the firms that own the networks and airwaves collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Visaphone System Zoom Call
John Jones's Dollar, Harry Stephen Keeler · 1915
A video meeting shown on a large wall display.
built in the 2000s, about 90 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Letting a scattered group meet by sound and picture saves firms a great deal of travel and is worth an industry.
Who is paid. Unlike a call between two people, a group meeting is mostly bought by firms for work, and as it is easy to copy, those that already own the networks and office software collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Open-Air Moving Picture Shows
The Messiah of the Cylinder, Victor Rousseau · 1917
Outdoor screens showing news to crowds in public places.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Outdoor screens showing news to crowds are a public convenience.
Who is paid. I assumed advertisers pay for the audience; screens are easy to copy, so the owners of the busy sites collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tele-Photophonic Attachment
The Messiah of the Cylinder, Victor Rousseau · 1917
An add-on camera that lets a public talking station transmit images too.
built in 2007, 90 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Seeing the person you are talking to is something most people now use, and it is worth an industry.
Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for the device and the line, and since many can make the device, the firms that already own the phone networks and handset brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Telephone Funnel
The Messiah of the Cylinder, Victor Rousseau · 1917
A public speaker unit that both broadcasts and picks up voices for conversation.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A fixed loudspeaker system for speaking to people in public places is an ordinary piece of public equipment.
Who is paid. The authorities pay to install it in streets and squares, and since it is easy to make, the firms that already hold such supply contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Photophone
The Planeteer, Michael Flynn · 1918
A booth-to-booth link that shows the person in the far booth.
built in the 1930s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Seeing the person you talk to changes how families keep in touch and how firms meet.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the screens and cameras are easy to copy, so the firms that own the networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Acoustic Apparatus (Osophone)
Acoustic Apparatus, Hugo Gernsback · 1923
Delivers sound to the inner ear through vibrations in the skull.
built in 2012, 89 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Hearing through the skull bones helps some people with poor hearing and suits a few uses, but for most it is one more kind of earphone.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves and the vibrating part is simple to make, so many firms sell it and none keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Networked Telephone Answering Machine
Men Like Gods, H.G. Wells · 1923
Records spoken messages and lets the owner play them back by calling in from elsewhere.
built in the 1970s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Hearing your messages from anywhere is a convenience.
Who is paid. Phone users pay; it is easy to copy, so the firms that own the phone networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wireless Access Point
Men Like Gods, H.G. Wells · 1923
Infrastructure that beams both electricity and data through the air to nearby devices.
built in 1999, 76 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Beaming power as well as data through the air would free devices from plugs and batteries, which goes well beyond the real thing that only carries data.
Who is paid. Households and firms pay for the service, and since the method could be copied, the firms that already own the power lines and networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Chest Disc
Armageddon: 2419 A.D., Philip Frances Nowlan · 1928
A chest-worn radio that transmits whenever the wearer speaks.
built in 2011, 83 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A radio worn on the chest that sends whenever you speak is a hands-free tool for teams, not a phone for everyone.
Who is paid. Unlike a pocket phone on a public network, this is a short-range team radio that work crews and soldiers would be issued, and many firms can make it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Telestereo
Crashing Suns, Edmond Hamilton · 1928
A round screen showing a live image of someone calling from far away.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Seeing the person you are talking to is something most people now use, and it is worth an industry.
Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for the device and the line, and since many can make the device, the firms that already own the phone networks and handset brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ultraphone Ear-Disc
Armageddon: 2419 A.D., Philip Frances Nowlan · 1928
Wireless earpieces that sit on the ears and cut out background noise.
built in the 1980s, about 60 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Earpieces that shut out background noise are a comfort many like but few need.
Who is paid. People buy them for themselves and small earpieces are simple for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ultrophone
Armageddon: 2419 A.D., Philip Frances Nowlan · 1928
A radio link letting both sides talk and listen at the same moment.
built in the 1920s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Letting both sides talk at once is an improvement to radio sets that already exist.
Who is paid. Operators of ships and aircraft buy the sets, and since many can make them, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Videophone
The Golden Girl of Munan, Harl Vincent · 1928
A personal link that sends pictures along with voices between two people.
built in the 1930s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Seeing the person you are talking to is something most people now use, and it is worth an industry.
Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for the device and the line, and since many can make the device, the firms that already own the phone networks and handset brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Viewplate
Armageddon: 2419 A.D., Philip Frances Nowlan · 1928
A thin flat screen for showing pictures.
built in the 1990s, about 70 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A thin screen for the wall is the form nearly every display now takes and is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Instant Photography
The Silent Destroyer, Henri Dahl Juve · 1929
A camera that produces a finished print within moments of taking the shot.
built in the 1940s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A finished print in moments is a convenience over waiting for film to be developed.
Who is paid. People buy the camera and the film, and once the trick of a self-developing print is known other camera makers could copy it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Life Chamber
The Chamber of Life, G. Peyton Wertenbaker · 1929
A room where machines surround a visitor with sights, sounds and sensations so convincing it feels like living another reality.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. An artificial world that feels real would be worth an entertainment industry of its own; I judged the full promise, which is larger than anything sold so far.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the machine can be copied once shown, so those who already own the stories and worlds people want to enter collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Massive Open Learning
The Threat of the Robot, David H. Keller · 1929
Recorded lessons from top instructors distributed widely so many students learn from the same material.
built in the 2000s, about 80 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The best teachers reaching every student would cut the cost of schooling; I judged the promise, which is larger than what was built.
Who is paid. Assuming students and families pay for the lessons themselves, and since a school subject belongs to nobody the way a novel or a song does and no certificate is described, anyone can record and sell lessons, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pay Per View TV
The Threat of the Robot, David H. Keller · 1929
Viewers pay a fee to watch a live sporting event streamed or broadcast to their own home screen.
built in the 1970s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Paying to watch a live match at home is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Viewers pay; the sending is easy to copy, so those who already own the sporting events and the broadcast networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Teleview
The Phantom Teleview, Bob Olsen · 1929
An apparatus for watching faraway scenes as they happen.
built in the 1940s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Seeing distant events live at home changed how most people spend their evenings and learn the news.
Who is paid. Households buy sets and pay for channels, and since sets are easy to copy, the firms that own the factories, the stations and the networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Television Sheet
The Threat of the Robot, David H. Keller · 1929
A thin, wide display panel that hangs like a picture and shows broadcast video in the home.
built in the 1990s, about 70 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Unlike the first television sets, this is a thinner form of a set people are assumed to have already, so the gain is a better screen, which is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Televisor
The Phantom Teleview, Bob Olsen · 1929
A screen that displays images sent from elsewhere.
built in the 1920s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Seeing distant events live at home changed how most people spend their evenings and learn the news.
Who is paid. Households buy sets and pay for channels, and since sets are easy to copy, the firms that own the factories, the stations and the networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tight-Beam
Skylark Three, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1930
Sends messages along a tightly focused energy beam so only the intended receiver picks them up.
built in the 1960s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A beam only the intended receiver can pick up matters to those with secrets to keep, a narrow group.
Who is paid. Armed forces and space agencies pay for it, and since the method can be copied, the firms that already hold their radio contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Visiplate
Skylark Three, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1930
A thin display panel showing pictures transmitted from far away.
built in the 1990s, about 60 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Unlike the first television sets, this is a thinner form of a set people are assumed to have already, so the gain is a better screen, which is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Adoption of Television
Prima Donna 1980, Bernard Brown · 1931
Forecasts that television will reach nearly every household and empty out cinemas.
built in the 1950s, about 20 years after it was imagined
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a forecast about how far television would spread, which is an event and not a thing anyone could buy.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold by the forecast itself; the sets and the broadcasts it speaks of are judged under their own names.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Optophone (Opto)
Too Many Boards!, Harl Vincent · 1931
A screen-based telephone that lets callers see each other while they talk.
built in 1964, 33 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Seeing the person you talk to changes how families keep in touch and how firms meet.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the screens and cameras are easy to copy, so the firms that own the networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Perfect Voice Modulation
Prima Donna 1980, Bernard Brown · 1931
Software that synthesizes a flawless-sounding human singer with no live performer needed.
built in the 1990s, about 60 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A flawless singer with no live performer would change the costs of the whole music trade.
Who is paid. Listeners pay, many could run such software, and because only the voice is replaced and not the songs, those who own the songs collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Selenium Photo-Electric Televisor
A Daring Trip To Mars, Max Valier · 1931
A light-sensitive cell made from selenium used to turn images into electrical signals.
already existed before the story (the 1870s)
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A light-sensitive cell is one part inside a camera, not a product people seek out.
Who is paid. Equipment makers buy it and many firms can make such cells, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Spacegram
An Adventure on Eros, J. Harvey Haggard · 1931
A text messaging service relaying short written dispatches between ships and worlds.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Carrying messages between ships and worlds would be a telegraph industry for a settled solar system, assuming there are many people out there to serve.
Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations, ship owners and firms trading between worlds pay for the traffic, the link is ordinary radio that others could build, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Suit-Phone
The Sargasso of Space, Edmond Hamilton · 1931
A radio built into a spacesuit so people outside can talk to each other.
built in the 1960s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A radio in a spacesuit is a needed part for the few people who work outside a ship.
Who is paid. Space agencies pay for it as part of the suit, and since it is an ordinary radio, the firms that already hold the suit contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tele-Audiovized Meeting
Exiles of the Moon, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931
Lets people in separate places hold a group meeting by sharing live sound and moving pictures.
built in 2011, 80 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Letting a scattered group meet by sound and picture saves firms a great deal of travel and is worth an industry.
Who is paid. Unlike a call between two people, a group meeting is mostly bought by firms for work, and as it is easy to copy, those that already own the networks and office software collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Telephotography
The Cosmic Cloud, Bruno H. Burgel · 1931
Transmitting images to a far location and showing them on a huge display.
already existed before the story (the 1920s)
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Seeing distant events live at home changed how most people spend their evenings and learn the news.
Who is paid. Assuming the huge display stands for the home set and not a hall, households buy sets and pay for channels, and since sets are easy to copy, the firms that own the factories, the stations and the networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Televisiophone
Islands of Space, John W. Campbell · 1931
A personal device that carries live video alongside voice so two people can see and hear each other.
built in 1964, 33 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Seeing the person you are talking to is something most people now use, and it is worth an industry.
Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for the device and the line, and since many can make the device, the firms that already own the phone networks and handset brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Telucid
If The Sun Died, R.F. Starzl · 1931
A projector that shows three-dimensional images floating in open air.
built in the 1960s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A picture with true depth standing in the room would replace the flat screen and be worth an industry of its own; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.
Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Virtual Assembly
If The Sun Died, R.F. Starzl · 1931
Brings far-flung people together as projected three-dimensional images so they can meet as one group.
built in 2020, 89 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Letting a scattered group meet by sound and picture saves firms a great deal of travel and is worth an industry.
Who is paid. Unlike a call between two people, a group meeting is mostly bought by firms for work, and as it is easy to copy, those that already own the networks and office software collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Daisy Projector
The Derelicts of Ganymede, John W. Campbell · 1932
Sends a signal beam through the upper atmosphere's reflective layer so planets can talk to each other.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Assuming the planets are settled as in the story, a link between them carries all their trade and news.
Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations, firms on each planet pay for the traffic, the beam is ordinary radio that others could build, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ether-Traffic
The Duel on the Asteroid, P. Schuyler Miller (w/D. McDermott · 1932
The shared band of radio channels that ships and planets use to talk across the solar system.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The shared radio channels are what every ship and planet needs in order to talk, so the right to use them is worth an industry.
Who is paid. Ship operators and broadcasters pay for channels, and since users cannot share a channel a government hands out a limited number of rights, which those who hold them can charge for.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Feelies (Feely)
Brave New World, Aldous Huxley · 1932
Films that let the audience physically feel what is happening on screen as well as seeing and hearing it.
built in the 2010s, about 80 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Feeling what happens on screen is an extra on top of the cinema people already have.
Who is paid. Audiences pay at the box office, the equipment can be copied, and the studios and cinema chains that own the films and the halls collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
News-Dispenser
After Armageddon, Francis Flagg · 1932
Plays spoken news reports on demand whenever the listener chooses.
built in the 2010s, about 80 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Getting the news at the moment and place you choose is a convenience over waiting for the paper.
Who is paid. Readers pay; the machine is easy to copy, so the news firms that already gather the reports collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Scent-Organ
Brave New World, Aldous Huxley · 1932
A machine that releases chosen smells on cue, played like an instrument of odours.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Smells on cue add a novelty to shows and homes.
Who is paid. I assumed households and showmen buy it; once shown, many firms could make one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tele-Screen
After Armageddon, Francis Flagg · 1932
A display panel that shows events as they happen far away.
already existed before the story (1927)
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Seeing distant events live at home changed how most people spend their evenings and learn the news.
Who is paid. Households buy sets and pay for channels, and since sets are easy to copy, the firms that own the factories, the stations and the networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Telectroscope
Invaders From The Infinite, John W. Campbell · 1932
An electrically enhanced instrument that sees far more distant detail than ordinary optical scopes.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A scope that sees much farther than glass alone serves astronomers and watchers, a narrow group.
Who is paid. I assume observatories and armed forces are the main buyers, and since others could build one, the firms that already supply such instruments collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
3D Tank Display
Triplanetary, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1934
A clear cube renders images with true depth so viewers see positions in three dimensions from any side.
built in the 1960s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A display with true depth seen from any side, working as the story promises and not as those built so far, would replace flat screens in homes and workplaces, which is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Assuming it is sold as a general display and not only for ship plotting as in the story, households buy it and the existing screen makers, who own the factories and brands, collect because the design can be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Aliens Speak English
The Mines of Haldar, Maurice G. Hugi · 1934
Beings from another world turn out to talk in our own language, for a reason the plot explains.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a turn of the plot about how aliens talk, not a thing anyone could buy.
Who is paid. Nothing is made or sold.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Black Cube Teaching Machine
The Flame From Mars, Jack Williamson · 1934
A box plays back stored pictures that instruct its viewer, delivering lessons without a live teacher.
already existed before the story (the 1920s)
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Lessons that play without a live teacher would cut the cost of schooling and training.
Who is paid. Assuming families and learners buy the lessons themselves, and since a school subject belongs to nobody the way a novel or a song does and no certificate is described, anyone can record and sell lessons, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Communicator
Skylark of Valeron, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1934
A pocket-sized unit lets people talk with each other across great distances.
built in the 1970s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A pocket device for talking across great distances changes how most people live and work.
Who is paid. People buy one each, handsets are easy to copy, and the firms that own the networks the calls travel over collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ingestible Communication Capsule
Triplanetary, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1934
A tiny radio swallowed like a pill lets its carrier talk and listen without any visible device.
built in the 2010s, about 80 years after it was imagined
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A hidden radio that is swallowed serves a niche of secret work; a pill passes through, so it is not an everyday phone.
Who is paid. I assumed spies and soldiers use it, so a government pays its usual suppliers of such equipment.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ultrawave
Triplanetary, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1934
A signalling method sends messages faster than light, allowing instant conversation across vast distances.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Talking across the stars with no delay would be the backbone of trade and rule between worlds, judged as if it worked, though it serves only those who live or work out there.
Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations and not a pocket set, firms and governments with far-flung operations pay for the traffic, others could build the device once it is known to work, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Magic Spectacles
Pygmalion's Spectacles, Stanley G. Weinbaum · 1935
Eyewear that immerses the wearer in a convincing artificial world of sights and sensations.
built in the 2010s, about 80 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. An artificial world that feels real would be worth an entertainment industry of its own; I judged the full promise, which is larger than anything sold so far.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the machine can be copied once shown, so those who already own the stories and worlds people want to enter collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Audiphone
Blood of the Moon, Ray Cummings · 1936
A radio link letting people in spacesuits talk to each other where there is no air.
built in the 1960s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Radio between people in spacesuits is essential to the few who work in such suits and of no use to anyone else.
Who is paid. Assuming the suits are worn by space crews, a government pays, and the firms that already supply suits and radios to such programmes collect because the radio is easy to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Desktop Flat Panel Intercom
The Shape of Things To Come, H.G. Wells · 1936
A small screen on a desk for video calls between rooms or offices.
built in the 1960s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Video calls between rooms or offices save some walking and some meetings.
Who is paid. Firms buy it for their offices, a screen and camera can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Giant Flat Panel Display
The Shape of Things To Come, H.G. Wells · 1936
A huge thin wall screen showing live broadcast pictures to an audience.
built in the 2000s, about 70 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A huge thin screen showing live pictures is the big screen of halls, stadiums and public squares, an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Because this one faces an audience, venues and not households buy it, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Transparent Flat Panel Display
The Shape of Things To Come, H.G. Wells · 1936
A large thin screen that can turn see-through.
built in the 2010s, about 80 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A large thin screen is the screen at the centre of most homes and offices, an industry of its own, and turning see-through is a feature of it.
Who is paid. Assuming it hangs in homes as well as shops and offices, people buy it, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wireless Wrist Intercom
The Shape of Things To Come, H.G. Wells · 1936
A radio device strapped to the arm for talking with others at a distance.
built in the 2010s, about 80 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Judged on the promise of a phone worn on the wrist as the phone people carry everywhere, which changes how most people live and work, though the real ones arrived after the pocket phone and stayed an extra.
Who is paid. People buy one each, a wrist set is as easy to copy as a pocket handset, and the firms that own the networks the calls travel over collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Multiple Sample Voice
The Shining One, Nat Schachner · 1937
Blending recordings of many speakers into one even synthetic voice.
built in the 1970s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. One even voice blended from many is a tool for announcements, smaller than making whole songs by machine.
Who is paid. Broadcasters and firms buy it and many could make it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sono-Induction Coils
The Shining One, Nat Schachner · 1937
A loudspeaker network using coils laid underground to address crowds.
already existed before the story (the 1920s)
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A fixed loudspeaker system for speaking to people in public places is an ordinary piece of public equipment.
Who is paid. The authorities pay to install it in streets and squares, and since it is easy to make, the firms that already hold such supply contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ultra-Communicator
Galactic Patrol, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1937
A system that relays spoken orders to chosen recipients only.
built in the 1990s, about 60 years after it was imagined
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Sending spoken orders only to chosen listeners is a command tool for fleets and forces, a narrow use.
Who is paid. I assume armed forces are the buyers, and since the method can be copied, the firms that already hold their radio contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Automatic Commercial Deletion
Satellite Five, Arthur K. Barnes · 1938
A gadget that spots advertisements and silences the television until they end.
built in the 2000s, about 70 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Silencing advertisements is a pleasant convenience for viewers and nothing more.
Who is paid. Viewers buy the gadget and it is easy for any electronics firm to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cosmic Teletype
Cosmic Teletype, Carl Jacobi · 1938
Sends printed messages across vast distances by routing them through a higher dimension.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Assuming people live across vast distances, printed messages that cross them at once would be the backbone of trade and rule, an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations and not a pocket set, firms and governments with far-flung operations pay for the traffic, others could build the device once it is known to work, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Etherphone Receiver
Hotel Cosmos, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1938
A small ear device that picks up encrypted radio messages.
already existed before the story (the 1920s)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A small ear device for coded radio messages is a convenience for those who need private messages.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves and tiny ear radios are simple for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gogglelike Televisors
The Robot and the Lady, Manly Wade Wellman · 1938
Screens mounted in eyewear just in front of the viewer's eyes.
built in the 2010s, about 80 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Screens worn just in front of the eyes, working as promised, would take over much of what people now do on handheld screens.
Who is paid. People buy them for themselves, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Selective Television
The Challenge of Atlantis, Arthur J. Burks · 1938
Lets a viewer call up a live picture of any chosen place on Earth.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Calling up a live view of any place would be worth an industry for travel, news and watching over things.
Who is paid. Assuming households buy the viewer and it needs no network of cameras that a single firm owns, others could build it once it is known to work, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Visi-Screen
Satellite Five, Arthur K. Barnes · 1938
A screen that shows moving pictures and information.
already existed before the story (the 1920s)
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A thin screen for the wall is the form nearly every display now takes and is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Automatic Delivery Library
The Lord of Tranerica, Stanton A. Coblentz · 1939
A library system that hands over any requested book almost instantly.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Any book in your hands almost at once would change what libraries and bookshops cost to run.
Who is paid. Assuming readers pay by fee or subscription, the delivery machinery can be copied, so the publishers who own the right to the books collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Orbiting Casino Advertising Sign
One Against The Legion, Jack Williamson · 1939
A giant advertisement placed in orbit where it can be seen across space.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A sign in the sky is one more place to advertise, seen by those beneath it.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and assuming the sky stays open to whoever can put a sign there, as with messages thrown on the clouds, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Polyceltron Iconoscope Televisor
Newscast, Harl Vincent · 1939
Carry-around gear that films and records sound for live news broadcasts from the scene.
built in the 1930s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Portable recording and sending kit is a useful tool for one trade.
Who is paid. News firms buy it and many makers can build such kit, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Radio-Facsimile Receiver
Ben Gleed, King of Speed, Don Wilcox · 1939
A home machine that receives a newspaper over the air and prints it.
built in the 1960s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Getting the news at the moment and place you choose is a convenience over waiting for the paper.
Who is paid. Readers pay; the machine is easy to copy, so the news firms that already gather the reports collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Stereoscopic Vernier and Cube
Sinister Barrier, Eric Frank Russell · 1939
Equipment for taking three-dimensional photographs.
built in the 1980s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Taking photographs with depth is a pleasure for hobbyists and a tool for a few trades.
Who is paid. Keen photographers buy it, and since many can make such a camera, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Telescribe
A Question of Salvage, Malcolm Jameson · 1939
Automatically writes down incoming emergency calls and other radio reports.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Writing down incoming radio calls by machine saves a clerk in a control room, which is a narrow saving.
Who is paid. Ship and rescue operators buy it, and since many can make such a recorder, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ultraset (Ultrawave Set)
Habit, Lester del Rey · 1939
A radio that sends signals faster than light.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Talking across the stars with no delay would be the backbone of trade and rule between worlds, judged as if it worked, though it serves only those who live or work out there.
Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations and not a pocket set, firms and governments with far-flung operations pay for the traffic, others could build the device once it is known to work, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Visiwave
One Against The Legion, Jack Williamson · 1939
Sends messages across interstellar distances with no delay at all.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Talking across the stars with no delay would be the backbone of trade and rule between worlds, judged as if it worked, though it serves only those who live or work out there.
Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations and not a pocket set, firms and governments with far-flung operations pay for the traffic, others could build the device once it is known to work, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bifocal TV Screen Lenses
Doom Over Venus, Edmond Hamilton · 1940
Eyeglasses whose lower half doubles as a small video display.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A screen in your glasses, working as promised, would take over much of what people now do on handheld screens.
Who is paid. People buy them for themselves, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hush-a-Phone
The Roads Must Roll, Robert Heinlein · 1940
A mouthpiece attachment for phones that keeps a caller's voice private and cuts room noise.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A mouthpiece that keeps a call private and cuts room noise is a minor convenience.
Who is paid. Callers buy it as an add-on and it is a simple shaped part anyone can make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pocket-Caller
The Worlds of Tomorrow, Manly Wade Wellman · 1940
A small private phone that fits in a pocket.
built in the 1970s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A phone carried everywhere changes how most people live and work.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; handsets are easy to copy, so the firms that own the networks and airwaves collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Soft Speaker
The Exhalted, L. Sprague de Camp · 1940
A speaker that aims sound in a narrow beam at one listener.
built in the 2000s, about 60 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Sound aimed at one listener is useful in shops, museums and cars but few people need it.
Who is paid. Shops and exhibit makers buy it, and since many can make such a speaker, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Synthetic Voice
The Amazon Fights Again, Thornton Ayre · 1940
Machine-made speech that sounds like a person talking.
built in the 1970s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Machines that speak like people let firms answer calls, read text aloud and voice their products without hiring speakers.
Who is paid. Firms buy it to build into their own products and services, and since many can make a talking machine, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Trumpaphone
The Voyage That Lasted 600 Years, Don Wilcox · 1940
A blaring musical horn with a harsh metallic sound.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A loud, harsh horn is one more musical instrument for the few who want it.
Who is paid. Players buy it, and since any instrument maker could build one, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Voder
Exit From Asteroid 60, D.L. James · 1940
A machine that generates spoken words without any human voice.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Machines that speak like people let firms answer calls, read text aloud and voice their products without hiring speakers.
Who is paid. Firms buy it to build into their own products and services, and since many can make a talking machine, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bone Conduction Receiver
Sixth Column, Anson MacDonald · 1941
A hidden radio earpiece that sends sound through the skull bones.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Hearing through the skull bones suits a few uses, here a hidden earpiece, but for most it is one more kind of earphone.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves and the vibrating part is simple to make, so many firms sell it and none keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Chatterbox' News-Receptor
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
A home receiver that plays news broadcasts with no filtering of what comes through.
built in the 2010s, about 70 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A news receiver in every home is the home end of broadcasting, which is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Unlike the broadcasting itself, this is the set in the home, which households buy and many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Identification Beacon
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
A radio signal that tells others which craft is in orbit.
already existed before the story (the 1930s)
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A signal that says which craft is which is a safety fitting, needed but minor.
Who is paid. Craft operators buy it because rules require it, and it is a simple radio many firms make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Newsbox (News-Receptor)
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
A viewer that scans broadcast programs and pulls up reports mentioning chosen keywords.
built in the 2010s, about 70 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A home receiver that picks out the reports its owner cares about is the home end of broadcasting, which is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Unlike a tailored news service, this is the set in the home, which households buy and many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Music
The Robot God, Ray Cummings · 1941
Songs both composed and played by machines with no human performers.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Songs written and played with no human performers remove the main cost of the music trade.
Who is paid. Listeners pay, and unlike a machine voice singing songs someone owns, once machines can write the songs as well anyone can run them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wall Screen
Star of Dreams, Jack Williamson · 1941
A video display as big as a wall, or built in as the wall itself.
built in the 2000s, about 60 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A thin screen for the wall is the form nearly every display now takes and is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Interplanetary Communications Center
QRM - Interplanetary, George O. Smith · 1942
A central relay network that routes messages among settlements throughout the solar system.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Assuming the planets are settled as in the story, a message link among them carries all their trade and news, an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Assuming firms and settlers pay by the message, nothing described stops a rival from building its own stations, so the carriers and fleet owners who already hold the home networks where every message starts and ends, and the ships to place and tend stations, collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
News Roundup
Beyond This Horizon, Robert Heinlein · 1942
Shows short summaries of current stories and lets you open any one for more.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Short summaries that open into the full story are a handier way to read the news people already get.
Who is paid. Readers pay, the layout is easy to copy, and the news firms that already gather the reports collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Telaudiogram
The World With A Thousand Moons, Edmond Hamilton · 1942
A method for sending voice and text messages across distances between planets.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Carrying messages between ships and worlds would be a telegraph industry for a settled solar system, assuming there are many people out there to serve.
Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations, ship owners and firms trading between worlds pay for the traffic, the link is ordinary radio that others could build, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Venus Equilateral Relay Station
QRM - Interplanetary, George O. Smith · 1942
A hollowed space rock turned into a hub that passes messages among planets.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A hub that passes messages among the planets would be the telegraph exchange of a settled solar system, assuming many people live out there.
Who is paid. Firms trading between worlds pay by the message, the description does not say the spot is the only one that would serve, so a rival hub could be built, and the carriers and fleet owners who already hold the home networks and the ships to tend a station collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Filmag
Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943
A periodical published as moving pictures rather than print.
built in the 2000s, about 60 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A magazine in moving pictures is one more form of entertainment among many.
Who is paid. Viewers buy or subscribe, anyone can film one, and the publishers who already have the readers and the names collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Micro Book (Microbook)
One Way Trip, Anthony Boucher · 1943
A tiny compact volume, perhaps an early electronic reader.
built in the 1990s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Assuming it is an electronic reader and not merely a very small printed book, it changes what it costs to publish, ship and store books.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the device is easy to copy, so the publishers and shops that already own the books and papers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Polyfrequency Neutralizer
Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943
A device that cancels projected three-dimensional images, making them vanish.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A device that wipes out projected images is a niche tool against trickery.
Who is paid. I assumed police and armies want it, so a government pays its usual equipment suppliers.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Solidograph
Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943
Beams solid-looking three-dimensional pictures to far-off places.
built in the 2010s, about 70 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Sending a lifelike solid picture of a person or place far away would be worth an industry of its own; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.
Who is paid. Households pay for the sets and the service, and as the projector could be copied, the firms that already own the networks and factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Telesolidograph
Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943
Sends lifelike three-dimensional projections across very long ranges.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Sending a lifelike solid picture of a person or place far away would be worth an industry of its own; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.
Who is paid. Households pay for the sets and the service, and as the projector could be copied, the firms that already own the networks and factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Viewscreen Pentagon
Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943
A central five-sided screen ringed by square monitors fixed along its edges.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. One odd arrangement of screens round a many-sided centre is a control-room fitting, not a new kind of thing.
Who is paid. Operators of ships or control rooms buy it, and since it is only ordinary screens set in a frame, the firms that already own the screen factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Suit-Radio
The Long Way, George O. Smith · 1944
A radio built into a spacesuit so two people working outside can talk.
built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A radio in a spacesuit is a needed part for the few people who work outside a ship.
Who is paid. Space agencies pay for it as part of the suit, and since it is an ordinary radio, the firms that already hold the suit contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sleeve Communicator
First Contact, Murray Leinster · 1945
Controls for gadgets woven into the cuff of a garment.
built in 1983, 38 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Controls woven into a cuff are a convenience.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it and any clothing or gadget maker could add them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vision Plate
First Contact, Murray Leinster · 1945
A thin flat screen for showing pictures and video.
built in 1964, 19 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A thin screen for the wall is the form nearly every display now takes and is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Spotcast
The Little Things, Henry Kuttner · 1946
A new medium that sends one message out to many receivers at once.
built since, date unclear
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A new way to send one message to many receivers at once is a broadcasting industry of its own.
Who is paid. Advertisers and news firms pay to reach the crowd, the description names no scarce channels and others could copy the method, so the firms that already own the audiences, the programmes and the stations collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Portable Telephone
Space Cadet, Robert Heinlein · 1948
A phone small enough to carry around and use away from any wire.
built in the 1970s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A phone carried everywhere changes how most people live and work.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; handsets are easy to copy, so the firms that own the networks and airwaves collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Solidograph-Projector
Police Operation, H. Beam Piper · 1948
A projector that casts a solid-looking image of a thing or person into the room.
built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A picture with true depth standing in the room would replace the flat screen and be worth an industry of its own; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.
Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Telepath Transmitter
Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949
A long-range sender that carries messages mind to mind.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Sending messages straight from mind to mind over long range, judged as if it worked, would be a new kind of phone service worth an industry.
Who is paid. I assume ordinary people would pay for it like a phone, and once one sender had been built others could copy it, so the firms that already own the networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Stratovideo (Television Plane)
The Morning of the Day They Did It, E.B. White · 1950
Aircraft circling high overhead as flying studios that relay television across a wide area.
already existed before the story (the 1940s)
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Aircraft that relay television fill gaps where towers do not reach, which is a narrow job.
Who is paid. Broadcasters pay for the relay, and since any operator with aircraft could do it, the firms that already own fleets and stations collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Audio Relay
The Puppet Masters, Robert Heinlein · 1951
A tiny radio implanted near the ear that relays calls and also serves as an alarm clock.
built in the 1960s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A radio by the ear is a convenience on top of the phone a person already has.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves and, even though this one is implanted, tiny ear radios are simple for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Metal Foil Advertisement
The Illustrated Man, Ray Bradbury · 1951
Promotional leaflets printed on thin sheets of metal.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. An eye-catching printing trick is a small edge for an advert.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay and any printer can do it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Odorophonics
The Illustrated Man, Ray Bradbury · 1951
A machine that plays back convincing smells on demand.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Smells on cue add a novelty to shows and homes.
Who is paid. I assumed households and showmen buy it; once shown, many firms could make one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Telebook
The Fun They Had, Isaac Asimov · 1951
Reading material delivered as text on a screen rather than on paper.
built in the 2000s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Reading on a screen instead of paper changes what it costs to publish and carry books.
Who is paid. Readers pay for each book, and since any screen can show text, the publishers and shops that already hold the books readers want collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Teledar
The Jester, William Tenn · 1951
Television whose pictures appear to have depth.
built in the 2000s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Broadcasts with real depth would be the next kind of television set and worth an industry, though the real thing has so far sold poorly against the promise.
Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ultrawave Relay or Hyperwave Relay
Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1951
A network that sends messages between stars with no delay.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Talking across the stars with no delay would be the backbone of trade and rule between worlds, judged as if it worked, though it serves only those who live or work out there.
Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations and not a pocket set, firms and governments with far-flung operations pay for the traffic, others could build the device once it is known to work, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Airplane Window Ads
The Space Merchants, Frederik Pohl (w/CM Kornbluth · 1952
Aircraft windows that double as screens showing commercials to passengers.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Advertisements on aircraft windows are one more place to show commercials to a captive audience.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay, the screens are easy to make, and the airlines that own the planes and the passengers' attention collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Compulsive Subsonics
The Space Merchants, Frederik Pohl (w/CM Kornbluth · 1952
Advertising that works on buyers below conscious awareness to make them crave products.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Advertising that truly made people crave a product would be worth a great deal to every seller of goods.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and once the trick is known any agency could use it, so no seller keeps much, though a government might well forbid it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Light Absorbing/Emitting Ink
Gravy Planet, Frederik Pohl (w/CM Kornbluth · 1952
Glow-in-the-dark printing ink that stores light and flashes it back to catch shoppers' eyes.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. An eye-catching printing trick is a small edge for an advert.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay and any printer can do it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pocket Projector
Foundation and Empire, Isaac Asimov · 1952
A small handheld gadget that plays back films and recordings.
built in the 2010s, about 60 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A personal screen for watching films and pictures anywhere is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; many firms can make the device, so those who already own the films and the ways to deliver them collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Recorded Books
Foundation and Empire, Isaac Asimov · 1952
Books stored in electronic form for playback or reading on a device.
already existed before the story (the 1930s)
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Books kept in electronic form instead of on paper change what it costs to publish, ship and store them.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the device is easy to copy, so the publishers and shops that already own the books and papers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Retinal Projection
The Space Merchants, Frederik Pohl (w/CM Kornbluth · 1952
Beaming commercials straight onto the back of a viewer's eye.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Adverts thrown into people's path are one more way to advertise, not a new need.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay, the projector is easy to copy and it can be aimed at anyone passing, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Buy-Me-Discs
Captive Audience, Anne Warren Griffith · 1953
Small tags on shop goods that pick up broadcast pitches and play them to shoppers.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Tags that play sales pitches from the shelf are one more way to advertise.
Who is paid. Brands pay to tag their own goods, and since the tag is the thing sold and any electronics workshop could make it, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Control Screen
Childhood's End, Arthur C. Clarke · 1953
A monitoring and command screen used by visiting aliens.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A screen for watching and directing things is an ordinary piece of working equipment.
Who is paid. Organisations buy such screens for their control rooms, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Green Bullet
Fahrenheit 451, Ray Bradbury · 1953
A tiny two-way radio tucked in the ear so the wearer can hear and speak to a distant partner.
built in the 1950s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A radio in the ear for talking and listening is a convenience on top of the phone a person already has.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves and tiny ear radios are simple for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Homeostatic Newspaper
If There Were No Benny Cemoli, Philip K. Dick · 1953
A self-running news outlet that gathers, writes and publishes stories with no human staff.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. News gathered, written and published with no human staff removes the main cost of the news trade.
Who is paid. Readers buy or subscribe, and once machines can gather and write the news anyone can run one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Master Ventriloquism Corporation (MV)
Captive Audience, Anne Warren Griffith · 1953
A single central firm that pipes spoken commercials out through every product on the market.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Commercials spoken by the goods themselves are another place to advertise, like talking tags on shop goods.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and although the story has a single firm running it, nothing described stops a rival, and the speaking part is simple for any workshop to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Message Tree
A Case of Conscience, James Blish · 1953
A living tree rooted in a crystal cliff that relays messages around an alien planet.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A living tree on an alien world is a natural thing, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ovoid 3D Galactic Model
Second Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1953
An egg-shaped handheld display showing the galaxy in depth.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A handheld model of the galaxy in depth serves a single purpose for navigators and teachers, unlike a general display with depth.
Who is paid. Assuming ships and schools buy it, the design can be copied, and the display makers with the factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Panoramic Viewer
Childhood's End, Arthur C. Clarke · 1953
A viewer that watches faraway places and projects them as solid-looking scenes.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Calling up a live view of any place would be worth an industry for travel, news and watching over things.
Who is paid. Assuming households buy the viewer and it needs no network of cameras that a single firm owns, others could build it once it is known to work, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Permanent Skywriting
Soap Opera, Alan Nelson · 1953
Messages written across the sky that hold their shape instead of drifting apart.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A sign in the sky is one more place to advertise, seen by those beneath it.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and assuming the sky stays open to whoever can put a sign there, as with messages thrown on the clouds, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pocket Phone (or pocketphone)
Assignment in Eternity, Robert Heinlein · 1953
A wireless phone small enough to carry in a pocket.
built in the 1980s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A phone carried everywhere changes how most people live and work.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; handsets are easy to copy, so the firms that own the networks and airwaves collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Seashell Radio (Thimble Radios)
Fahrenheit 451, Ray Bradbury · 1953
Miniature radios worn inside the ear that feed a constant stream of sound and talk to the listener.
built in the 1980s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Sound fed straight into the ear is a convenience over an ordinary radio or speaker.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it and many firms can make tiny ear pieces, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Speedtalk
Assignment in Eternity, Robert Heinlein · 1953
An invented language packing each word into one syllable so speakers exchange ideas far faster.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A language that lets its speakers trade ideas faster helps only the few who take the trouble to learn it.
Who is paid. Assuming learners pay to be taught it, as an army would pay for a battle language, a language cannot be owned and any teacher could offer it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Spot-Wavex Scrambler
Fahrenheit 451, Ray Bradbury · 1953
A gadget that makes broadcast hosts appear to address each viewer by name.
built in the 2000s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Hearing a host say your name is a pleasing trick added to a set people already own.
Who is paid. Viewers buy the gadget for themselves, and since it is a simple add-on many could make, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Synthony
The Music Master, F.L. Wallace · 1953
A concert played entirely by machine musicians.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A concert played by machines is a show some people would pay to hear, one kind among many.
Who is paid. Concert-goers buy tickets, and since anyone with the machines could stage such a show, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Visicastor
Second Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1953
A presenter who fronts televised news or shows.
built in the 1950s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Presenting is a trade whose work is sold, a step below the broadcasts it serves.
Who is paid. Broadcasters pay presenters for their labour, and anyone with the knack can offer it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
TBR (Talk Between Robots) Circuit
The Midas Plague, Frederik Pohl · 1954
A dedicated channel that lets machines exchange messages directly with one another.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Letting machines pass messages straight to each other lets factories and services run with far less human relaying.
Who is paid. Firms buy it built into their machines, and since a shared channel only works if every maker can use it, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Trace Web
Souvenir, Philip K. Dick · 1954
A pocket-sized unit that links its holder into a wider network and can call parts of it into being.
built in the 2000s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A pocket unit that links its holder to everyone else on the network changes how most people live and work.
Who is paid. Assuming it is a pocket phone and the power to call parts of the network into being is a feature of it, people buy one each, handsets are easy to copy, and the firms that own the networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Visual Ad
Sales Pitch, Philip K. Dick · 1954
Advertising that pushes itself straight into a viewer's mind whether they want it or not.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Advertising that reaches straight into a viewer's mind would be worth a great deal to every seller of goods, though the story's law forbids it.
Who is paid. Advertisers who ignore the ban pay, and once the trick is known any agency could use it and the law pursues whoever does, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Web (Data Network)
Souvenir, Philip K. Dick · 1954
A network that links sources of information so they can be shared widely.
built in the 1990s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A shared network that lets anyone reach knowledge and one another from anywhere changes how most people live and work.
Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for access, and since no one firm can keep others off an open network, the firms that already own the lines and the big gathering places on it collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dashboard TV
The Chromium Fence, Philip K. Dick · 1955
A television screen built into a car's instrument panel.
built in the 1990s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A screen in the dashboard is a feature of a car.
Who is paid. Drivers pay for it as part of the car, any maker can fit one, and the car makers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mechanical Newsmachine
Foster, You're Dead, Philip K. Dick · 1955
A machine that dispenses breaking news reports right where you are.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Getting the news at the moment and place you choose is a convenience over waiting for the paper.
Who is paid. Readers pay; the machine is easy to copy, so the news firms that already gather the reports collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Neck-Phone
The Chromium Fence, Philip K. Dick · 1955
A telephone implanted in the neck so the user can talk hands-free at all times.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A phone inside the body that is never lost or left behind would be worth an industry, though surgery would put many people off.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, the device can be copied, and the firms that own the phone networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pocket Receiver
The Magellanic Cloud, Stanislaw Lem · 1955
A handheld device that keeps its owner connected to information and people wherever they go.
built in the 1990s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A phone carried everywhere changes how most people live and work.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; handsets are easy to copy, so the firms that own the networks and airwaves collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Trion Library
The Magellanic Cloud, Stanislaw Lem · 1955
A vast shared store of knowledge that anyone can query from afar, much like the online world.
built in the 1990s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A shared network that lets anyone reach knowledge and one another from anywhere changes how most people live and work.
Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for access, and since no one firm can keep others off an open network, the firms that already own the lines and the big gathering places on it collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Maximum-security Booth
Double Star, Robert Heinlein · 1956
A private cubicle for taking encrypted calls that carry three-dimensional pictures of the caller.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A secure booth for solid-looking calls is a niche for officials and firms with secrets.
Who is paid. I assumed firms and offices buy it; it can be copied, so the firms that own the phone networks collect, as with other picture calls.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Saga
The City and the Stars, Arthur C. Clarke · 1956
An immersive entertainment that lets the user live inside famous adventures from history.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. An artificial world that feels real would be worth an entertainment industry of its own; I judged the full promise, which is larger than anything sold so far.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the machine can be copied once shown, so those who already own the stories and worlds people want to enter collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Solido
Chance of a Lifetime, Milton Lesser · 1956
A projector that creates a lifelike image with full three-dimensional depth.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A picture with true depth standing in the room would replace the flat screen and be worth an industry of its own; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.
Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Whisper Line
The Stars My Destination, Alfred Bester · 1956
A hidden acoustic path that lets isolated prisoners talk to one another across distance.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A chance quirk of a prison's walls that lets inmates whisper to each other is not a product anyone sells.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so there is no payer and no seller.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dirac Transmitter (also Tranceiver or Communicator)
Cities in Flight, James Blish · 1957
A device for sending messages instantly to anywhere in the galaxy.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Assuming people live around many stars, instant messages between them would be the backbone of all trade and rule across space, an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations and not a pocket set, firms and governments with far-flung operations pay for the traffic, others could build the device once it is known to work, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Lunar Advertisement
Watch This Space, Arthur C. Clarke · 1957
A commercial message laid out on the Moon large enough to be read from Earth.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A sign on the Moon is still a single place to show an advertisement, though it is the most widely seen of all.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and unlike the open sky there is only the Moon's face to write on, so assuming governments share it out, the few allowed to mark it can charge for it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flexible Wall Sheet Display
The Mechanical Monarch, E.C. Tubb · 1958
A big transparent panel on the wall that shows information.
built in the 2010s, about 60 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A big thin panel on the wall is the screen at the centre of most homes and offices, an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Assuming it hangs in homes as well as offices, people buy it, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tik-Talker
The Sign of the Tiger, Alan Nourse (w/Meyer · 1958
A way of garbling spoken words so a message can be sent in secret code.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Keeping a call private matters to a narrow set of users with secrets worth guarding.
Who is paid. Firms with secrets buy it, and since the method of garbling speech is well known and easy to copy, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Memo-Voice
War Game, Philip K. Dick · 1959
Paper notes that speak their contents out loud.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A note that speaks its contents is a novelty for offices.
Who is paid. I assumed offices buy it; many firms could make it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Domed Mapviewer
Dorsai!, Gordon R. Dickson · 1960
A lit, dome-shaped screen that shows maps.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A lit dome that shows maps is a piece of planning equipment for a few users.
Who is paid. Assuming it is used by military staff as in the story, a government pays, and the firms that already supply armies with such equipment collect because it is easy to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Fluid Metal Letters
Vulcan's Hammer, Philip K. Dick · 1960
A smooth metallic surface that forms written words on itself.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A metal surface that forms words on itself is a sign or noticeboard of an unusual kind.
Who is paid. Offices would buy it as a display, and ordinary screens that many firms make do the same job, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dimensino
Time is the Simplest Thing, Clifford Simak · 1961
An alien entertainment centre offering total sensory immersion.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Entertainment that fills every sense would be a new industry beside cinema and games.
Who is paid. Assuming people pay at the door of a venue, others could build such centres once one existed, so the entertainment firms that own the stories and the sites collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Electronic Book Store
Return from the Stars, Stanislaw Lem · 1961
A shop where readers collect digital books.
built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A shop for digital books changes what it costs to publish, ship and store books.
Who is paid. Readers buy the books, anyone could open such a shop, and the publishers who own the right to the books collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Interactive Map
Return from the Stars, Stanislaw Lem · 1961
A small book whose paper pages act as a touch-sensitive map.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A touch-sensitive paper map is a handy travel aid.
Who is paid. Travellers buy it, the touch-sensitive pages are thin screens that can be copied, and the display makers with the factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Opton
Return from the Stars, Stanislaw Lem · 1961
An early vision of an e-reader holding many books on compact storage.
built in the 1990s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A handheld screen holding many books or the day's paper is worth an industry and cuts the cost of printing and delivery.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the device is easy to copy, so the publishers and shops that already own the books and papers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Recording Radio
Four-Day Planet, H. Beam Piper · 1961
A handheld unit that captures audio and streams it live to a distant station.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Portable recording and sending kit is a useful tool for one trade.
Who is paid. News firms buy it and many makers can build such kit, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Stereo Tank
Stranger in a Strange Land, Robert Heinlein · 1961
A set that displays broadcasts as three-dimensional scenes.
built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Broadcasts with real depth would be the next kind of television set and worth an industry, though the real thing has so far sold poorly against the promise.
Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Stereovision Tank
Stranger in a Strange Land, Robert Heinlein · 1961
Mass broadcasting in three dimensions, the successor to ordinary television.
built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Broadcasts with real depth would be the next kind of television set and worth an industry, though the real thing has so far sold poorly against the promise.
Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Teleprinter
Four-Day Planet, H. Beam Piper · 1961
A machine that prints out the day's news at home.
already existed before the story (the 1920s)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. News printed at home is a convenience over a paper brought to the door.
Who is paid. Readers pay for the service, and since the printer is easy to make, the news firms that already have the reporters and readers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Transmit Camera
Four-Day Planet, H. Beam Piper · 1961
A camera that sends its photos straight to a newsroom as they are taken.
built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A camera that sends pictures straight to the newsroom saves the press some hours, a narrow gain.
Who is paid. News firms buy it, and since many can make such a camera, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Free Telephone Call
The Subliminal Man, J.G. Ballard · 1963
Phone service paid for by short ads rather than fees.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Calls paid for by listening to advertisements save callers a little money.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay in place of the callers, any phone firm could offer it, and the firms that own the phone networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
News Clown
Stand-By, Philip K. Dick · 1963
A broadcaster who presents curated lighthearted news.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A light-hearted news show is one more programme among many.
Who is paid. I assumed viewers pay; anyone can present a show, so the broadcasters who already hold the channels collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Rifle Range (Virtual Shooting Range)
Way Station, Clifford Simak · 1963
A simulated target-shooting gallery with virtual clay targets.
built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A pretend shooting gallery is a niche amusement.
Who is paid. Players pay and many firms can build one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Subliminal Billboards
The Subliminal Man, J.G. Ballard · 1963
Huge roadside signs that seem empty but carry hidden advertising messages.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Signs that truly made passers-by buy without knowing why would change what sellers spend to win customers.
Who is paid. Firms with goods to sell pay for the space, and since the hidden message is easy to copy, the owners of the roadside sites collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Adjustable Television
The Simulacra, Philip K. Dick · 1964
A TV that lets viewers alter what politicians say in broadcast speeches.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Changing what politicians appear to say on your own set is a toy, and a troubling one, not a need.
Who is paid. Viewers would buy it as a novelty feature and any set maker could add it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ampek F-a2 Recording System
The Simulacra, Philip K. Dick · 1964
An audio recorder that uses living tissue to store and replay sound.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A sound recorder made of living tissue does the same job as any other recorder, so it is a curiosity.
Who is paid. People would buy it as a recorder like any other, and ordinary recorders that many firms make hold its price down, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Commercial Fly
The Simulacra, Philip K. Dick · 1964
A tiny flying machine that pesters people with advertisements.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A tiny flying machine that pesters people with advertisements is one more way to advertise, and an unwelcome one.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and once such fliers exist anyone can send them out, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Identificator
The Star King, Jack Vance · 1964
A projector that shows holographic door signs.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A projected sign on a door is decoration, unlike a full display with depth.
Who is paid. Shops and offices buy it as signage and many sign makers could supply it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Word Tab
Cantata 140, Philip K. Dick · 1964
A tappable link in an electronic document that brings up more detail.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A link you tap for more detail is a handy feature inside documents, not a product on its own.
Who is paid. Firms that make reading software build it in, and since anyone can add such a link, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Battery-Powered 3D Comic Book
The Zap Gun, Philip K. Dick · 1965
A comic book whose pages animate using a battery.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A comic whose pages move is a novelty for readers.
Who is paid. Readers buy it, the moving page is easy to copy, and the publishers who own the popular characters collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Battle Language
Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965
A military language built to be clear to allies and hard for outsiders to translate.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A spoken code for one army is useful to that army alone.
Who is paid. A government pays to have it devised and taught, and a language cannot be owned and any group of linguists could make one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Communinet
Dune, Brian Herbert · 1965
A network open to the public for sharing data.
built in 1969, 4 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A network open to everyone for sharing information changes how most people work, shop and talk.
Who is paid. Households pay for a connection, the method is open for anyone to use, and the firms that own the wires and masts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Distrans
Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965
Leaves temporary messages imprinted in the nervous systems of bats or birds.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Hiding a message in a bat or bird is a tool for spies and smugglers.
Who is paid. Assuming spy services are the buyers, a government pays, the story treats it as a common device others could make, and the firms that already supply such services collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Ego-Likeness
Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965
A lifelike moving portrait that captures a person's tiny gestures.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A lifelike moving portrait is a keepsake.
Who is paid. Families buy it, and anyone with the equipment could make such portraits, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Filament Paper Book
Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965
A tiny lightweight book for space travellers where every gram counts.
built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A very small, light book matters only where every bit of weight counts.
Who is paid. Unlike an electronic book, this is still a printed book on thin material, which travellers buy and any printer could make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Filmbook
Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965
A medium storing both text and video.
built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Books and film kept in one compact form change what it costs to publish, ship and store them.
Who is paid. Readers buy them, the storage medium is easy to copy, and the publishers who own the right to the contents collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Inter-Vehicle Communication
The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965
Lets drivers talk directly from one car to another.
built in the 1990s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Talking from car to car is a convenience for drivers.
Who is paid. Drivers buy it with the car, and it is easy to copy, so the established carmakers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Message Cylinder
Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965
A small secure capsule that stores and plays back a message.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A compact way to carry a message or recording is a niche tool.
Who is paid. I assumed firms and officials buy it; many makers could produce it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Minimic Film
Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965
An extremely fine medium for carrying messages.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A compact way to carry a message or recording is a niche tool.
Who is paid. I assumed firms and officials buy it; many makers could produce it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Personalized Fashion Display
Bill the Galactic Hero, Harry Harrison · 1965
Screens showing you wearing different outfits.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Seeing yourself in different outfits on a screen is a sales aid for clothes shops.
Who is paid. Shops buy it, a screen and camera can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Shigawire
Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965
An extremely thin, strong wire used to store recordings.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A compact way to carry a message or recording is a niche tool.
Who is paid. I assumed firms and officials buy it; many makers could produce it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Solido Projector
Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965
A projector that shows solid-looking three-dimensional pictures.
built in the 1990s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A picture with true depth standing in the room would replace the flat screen and be worth an industry of its own; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.
Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ansible
Rocannon's World, Ursula LeGuin · 1966
Instant communication across interstellar distances.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Assuming people live around many stars, instant messages between them would be the backbone of all trade and rule across space, an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations and not a pocket set, firms and governments with far-flung operations pay for the traffic, others could build the device once it is known to work, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Big Screen Control
The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966
Casting a personal device's content onto a large shared display.
built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Showing a personal device on a big shared screen is a handy feature.
Who is paid. It comes as a feature of devices people already buy and any maker can add it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Caller Contact List
The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966
A phone's stored directory of callers.
built in the 1980s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A stored list of callers is a handy feature of a phone.
Who is paid. It comes as a feature of phones people already buy and any maker can add it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cellphone Voice Mail
The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966
Network storage of spoken messages for later playback.
built in the 1990s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Spoken messages kept for later are a handy feature of phone service.
Who is paid. Callers pay for it as part of their phone service, it is easy to copy, and the firms that own the phone networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Reciprocal Name
The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966
A short nickname that maps to someone's full identity and phone number.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A short name that stands for a full identity and number is a convenience.
Who is paid. Phone users pay; the idea is easy to copy, so the network firms that already hold the directory collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Virtual Kiss (Tactile Net)
The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966
A device that transmits the touch of a kiss over a distance.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Feeling a far-off partner's touch is a novelty for couples who are apart.
Who is paid. Couples would buy it for themselves, and since many could make such a gadget, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Virtual Reality Construct
The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966
Immersive simulated scenes projected without any headset.
built in the 2020s, about 60 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Stepping into a simulated scene with no headset would be a new form of entertainment worth an industry; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.
Who is paid. Households pay for the equipment and the scenes, and since the projector could be copied, the firms that already own the studios and electronics factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Virtual Reality Video Game
The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966
A real-time simulated computer game played for fun.
built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Simulated games played for fun are one of the biggest forms of entertainment.
Who is paid. Players buy the games, and since the idea is open to all, the studios that already own popular titles and the machines they run on collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Voice Dialing
The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966
Calling someone by saying their name aloud to a phone.
built in the 1990s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Speaking to a phone instead of pressing keys is a convenience added to something people already own.
Who is paid. It comes as a feature of phones people already buy and any maker can add it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Voice-Enabled Smartphone
The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966
A phone run entirely by spoken commands.
built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Speaking to a phone instead of pressing keys is a convenience added to something people already own.
Who is paid. Spoken control comes as a feature of phones people already buy and any maker can add it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Newspad
2001: A Space Odyssey, Arthur C. Clarke · 1968
A thin portable screen for reading news and documents, much like a tablet.
built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A handheld screen holding many books or the day's paper is worth an industry and cuts the cost of printing and delivery.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the device is easy to copy, so the publishers and shops that already own the books and papers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Newspad Electronic Newspaper
2001: A Space Odyssey, Arthur C. Clarke · 1968
A tablet showing a digital edition of the daily paper.
built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A handheld screen holding many books or the day's paper is worth an industry and cuts the cost of printing and delivery.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the device is easy to copy, so the publishers and shops that already own the books and papers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wholographik
Stand on Zanzibar, John Brunner · 1968
A three-dimensional light-based picture, similar to a hologram.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A picture with true depth standing in the room would replace the flat screen and be worth an industry of its own; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.
Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Book of the Kalends
Galactic Pot-Healer, Philip K. Dick · 1969
A self-rewriting chronicle of a world's history that keeps changing its contents.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Assuming it only records a world's history and does not foretell it, a chronicle that keeps itself up to date is a reference work for the curious.
Who is paid. Assuming readers buy copies, there is only this chronicle and only its keepers can write it, so they keep what readers pay.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Homeopape
Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969
A machine that assembles and prints a newspaper with no human editors.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. News put together with no human editors removes the main cost of the news trade.
Who is paid. Assuming a machine readers buy or subscribe to, once machines can write the news anyone can run one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pape Machine
Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969
A device that prints a freshly tailored newspaper and lets readers search the news.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. News sorted to each reader's interests changes how the news trade reaches people.
Who is paid. Readers pay by subscription; the sorting is easy to copy, so those who already hold the reporting and the audience collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sniggertrance
Whipping Star, Frank Herbert · 1969
The twitching inward trance a person enters while receiving a mind-borne call.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a creature's nature or a state of mind, not something made and sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Viewing Tank
The Man in the Maze, Robert Silverberg · 1969
A display screen for showing images.
built in the 1960s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A thin screen for the wall is the form nearly every display now takes and is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Whologram
Super-Toys Last All Summer Long, Brian Aldiss · 1969
A projection that creates a lifelike three-dimensional illusion.
built in the 1960s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A picture with true depth standing in the room would replace the flat screen and be worth an industry of its own; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.
Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Holo
Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970
A shortened word for a three-dimensional hologram image.
already existed before the story (1964)
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The word stands for pictures with true depth, which would replace flat screens in homes and workplaces.
Who is paid. Judging the display the word names, households buy it, the design can be copied, and the existing screen makers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Neck Radio
Our Friends From Frolix 8, Philip K. Dick · 1970
An implant that plays commercial broadcasts inside the wearer's head.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Sound fed straight into the ear is a convenience over an ordinary radio or speaker.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it and many firms can make tiny ear pieces, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tower of Glass
Tower of Glass, Robert Silverberg · 1970
A giant glass spire built to send messages beyond the solar system.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. One great spire for calling beyond the solar system is a single act of curiosity with no customers waiting for the service.
Who is paid. I assume a state would pay for it as a science project, as nobody could be charged for its use, and the big builders that already win such works would be paid.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Translator Discs
Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970
Worn devices that link to a computer to translate speech between languages.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Being understood in any language while wearing a small disc removes a barrier to travel and trade for a great many people.
Who is paid. Travellers and traders buy it, and once one firm had made a good translator others could too, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pocket Display Projector
The Anome, Jack Vance · 1971
A pocket-sized projector that throws sharp images for a group to watch.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Unlike a personal film player, a projector in the pocket is an accessory for showing pictures to a group.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it and many firms can make one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Implanted Tranceiver
The Godmakers, Frank Herbert · 1972
A body implant for two-way talk without carrying a handset.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A phone inside the body that is never lost or left behind would be worth an industry, though surgery would put many people off.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, the device can be copied, and the firms that own the phone networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Newstaper Gear
Flash Crowd, Larry Niven · 1972
Portable kit a one-person news crew uses to find, film and report stories.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Portable recording and sending kit is a useful tool for one trade.
Who is paid. News firms buy it and many makers can build such kit, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Transmit-Paper
The Godmakers, Frank Herbert · 1972
Writing sheets that send pen strokes over a network to distant computers.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Paper that sends pen strokes to a distant computer is a handy way to enter notes, not a need.
Who is paid. Offices buy it, and since many can make such sheets, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Light-Sculpture
Light Verse, Isaac Asimov · 1973
An artwork shaped from light itself.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. An artwork made of light is a luxury for collectors.
Who is paid. Collectors buy it; I assumed the method is open to any artist, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Phone-Grid Transex Network
Flow My Tears, The Policeman Said, Philip K. Dick · 1974
A fictional networked intimacy service portrayed as addictive in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A networked intimacy service that people cannot put down would draw spending on the scale of an industry.
Who is paid. Users pay; I assumed it stays legal and can be copied, so the firms that own the phone network it runs on collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Picphone
Flow My Tears, The Policeman Said, Philip K. Dick · 1974
A compact phone with a screen for sending and seeing pictures.
built in the 2000s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A phone carried everywhere changes how most people live and work.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; handsets are easy to copy, so the firms that own the networks and airwaves collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Projection
The Computer Connection, Alfred Bester · 1974
Sending a lifelike image of yourself to appear somewhere far away.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Appearing lifelike in a far place would replace much travel for meetings.
Who is paid. I assumed firms pay to save travel; once shown it can be copied, so the firms that own the networks carrying the image collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Projection Commercials
The Computer Connection, Alfred Bester · 1974
Three-dimensional adverts projected directly into people's path in public spaces.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Adverts thrown into people's path are one more way to advertise, not a new need.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay, the projector is easy to copy and nobody owns the open air it shines into, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Talking Pamphlet
Ellison Wonderland, Harlan Ellison · 1974
A printed guide that explains its instructions aloud in plain speech.
built in the 1970s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Print that speaks is a handy extra on a book or a leaflet, not something people need.
Who is paid. Publishers and makers of goods pay to add it, and since the chip is cheap and simple to copy, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Data-Net
The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975
A countrywide computer network linking data across a nation.
already existed before the story (1969)
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A network linking information across a whole country changes how most people work, shop and talk.
Who is paid. Households pay for a connection, the method is open for anyone to use, and the firms that own the wires and masts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hearing Aid
The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975
An anonymous phone line where callers speak to someone who only listens.
already existed before the story (the 1960s)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A line where someone simply listens comforts callers in need and is not a large trade.
Who is paid. Assuming callers pay a little or give to keep it running, anyone with patient listeners and a phone line can offer it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tiered Internet
The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975
Giving some kinds of network traffic priority over others.
built in the 2000s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Letting some traffic jump the queue changes what network owners can charge the firms that depend on them.
Who is paid. Firms that need fast delivery pay for the faster lane, and only those who already own the lines can sell it, so they collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Comlink
Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976
A small handheld device for talking to others remotely.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A small device for talking to anyone at a distance changes how most people live and work.
Who is paid. People buy one each, handsets are easy to copy, and the firms that own the networks the calls travel over collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Poster TV
A World Out of Time, Larry Niven · 1976
A television as thin as a wall poster.
already existed before the story (1964)
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A television as thin as a poster is the wall screen of the home, an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it inside the things they own; once shown it can be copied, so the firms with the big screen factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Trans-Space Transmission
The Moon Moth, Jack Vance · 1976
A method for sending messages instantly between worlds across space.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Talking across the stars with no delay would be the backbone of trade and rule between worlds, judged as if it worked, though it serves only those who live or work out there.
Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations and not a pocket set, firms and governments with far-flung operations pay for the traffic, others could build the device once it is known to work, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Caleban Contact
The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977
Mind-to-mind communication powered by colossal energy expenditure.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is contact with a strange being that happens to people, not a device anyone could make and sell.
Who is paid. Nothing is made or sold.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ghostsmoke
The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977
Promotional images cast onto a hanging cloud of fine spray.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Images on a cloud of spray are one more way to catch the eye for an advertisement.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and a sprayer and a projector are easy for anyone to set up, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Holo-Cube
A Scanner Darkly, Philip K. Dick · 1977
A room-sized three-dimensional image display that viewers can step inside.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A room-sized picture with depth that you can step into would replace flat screens for home entertainment.
Who is paid. Assuming it is fitted in homes, households buy it, the design can be copied, and the existing screen makers, who own the factories and brands, collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Holomist
The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977
Advertising projected onto a curtain of fine vapour.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Advertising on a curtain of vapour is one more way to catch the eye.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and a sprayer and a projector are easy for anyone to set up, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Holopad
The Fountains of Paradise, Arthur C. Clarke · 1978
A handheld tablet that shows pictures with true depth.
built in the 1990s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A handheld tablet showing pictures with true depth, working as the story promises and not as those built so far, would replace flat screens on personal devices.
Who is paid. Households buy it, the design can be copied, and the existing screen makers, who own the factories and brands, collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Personal Interest Profile (PIP)
The Fountains of Paradise, Arthur C. Clarke · 1978
A stored list of subjects that pulls in fresh news matching a reader's interests.
built in the 2000s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. News sorted to each reader's interests changes how the news trade reaches people.
Who is paid. Readers pay by subscription; the sorting is easy to copy, so those who already hold the reporting and the audience collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Babel Fish
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams · 1979
A small creature worn in the ear that translates any spoken language for its host.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Understanding any spoken language at once would remove a cost from travel, trade and every job done across borders.
Who is paid. People buy one each, and since it is a creature that breeds, anyone can raise and sell them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Electronic Book
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams · 1979
A handheld electronic reference book with a screen and simple controls.
built in 1998, 19 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A handheld electronic book changes what it costs to publish, ship and store books.
Who is paid. Readers buy the device and the books, the device is easy to copy, and the publishers who own the right to the contents collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wristband Viewer
Changeling, Roger Zelazny · 1980
A wrist-worn screen for watching images sent down from overhead surveillance.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A wrist screen showing pictures from watchers overhead is a tool for those who do the watching.
Who is paid. Unlike the other wrist devices, this one serves surveillance, so police and armed forces pay and the firms that already hold their contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Black square
God Emperor of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1981
A device for exchanging hidden messages.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A device for passing hidden messages serves the few who need secrecy.
Who is paid. The description gives little, so assuming firms and officials with secrets buy it, ways of hiding messages are widely known and many could make one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Virtual World Kiss
True Names, Vernor Vinge · 1981
An intimate embrace between people carried out through a simulated online space.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Feeling a far-off partner's touch is a novelty for couples who are apart.
Who is paid. Couples would buy it for themselves, and since many could make such a gadget, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Advertising Airship
Blade Runner, Ridley Scott · 1982
A blimp whose sides carry colourful video commercials.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A flying video billboard is one more place to show advertisements.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay for the space, and anyone can fly a blimp with screens over a city, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Call Notification Unit
Eye of Cat, Roger Zelazny · 1982
A pocket gadget signalling that someone is ringing your home phone.
already existed before the story (the 1950s)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Knowing that your home phone is ringing while you are out is a minor convenience.
Who is paid. People buy the gadget for themselves and it is simple to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Command Microphone
Diplomat At Arms, Keith Laumer · 1982
A cape that doubles as a voice pickup and loudspeaker.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A cape that picks up and amplifies the voice is a niche piece of kit for those who address crowds.
Who is paid. Assuming speakers and the organisations they work for buy it, it is a microphone and speaker sewn into cloth that anyone could make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Full-Motion Building Advertising Facade
Blade Runner, Ridley Scott · 1982
Video advertising covering the whole exterior of a skyscraper.
built in the 1990s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Video across a whole building is one more place to show advertisements.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay, the screens are easy to make, and the owners of tall buildings in busy places collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Comeye
Heretics of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1984
A carried video camera letting a travelling official stay connected to headquarters.
already existed before the story (1983)
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A carried camera linking a travelling official to headquarters is a tool for a few people.
Who is paid. The official's government pays, portable video cameras are easy to copy, and the firms that already supply governments with such equipment collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Generate New Phone Number
Press Enter, John Varley · 1984
Software that assigns a fresh calling number to every call placed.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A fresh number for every call serves the few who want not to be traced.
Who is paid. People who want privacy pay for it, and it is software many could write, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Adnix
Contact, Carl Sagan · 1985
A gadget that silences the television whenever commercials come on.
built in the 2000s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Silencing advertisements is a pleasant convenience for viewers and nothing more.
Who is paid. Viewers buy the gadget and it is easy for any electronics firm to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Earmite
Freezone, John Shirley · 1985
A tiny speaker that sits inside the ear.
already existed before the story (the 1910s)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A tiny speaker inside the ear is a convenience for listening in private.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves and tiny ear speakers are simple for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Fieldstim
Freezone, John Shirley · 1985
A device that conveys pictures by stimulating a wide patch of skin.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Pictures felt through the skin would help people who cannot see and be a novelty for others.
Who is paid. Assuming people buy it for themselves, it needs no rare part and many firms could make it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wire Act
Freezone, John Shirley · 1985
A performer fitted with body hardware that turns their movements into music.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A performer whose movements become music is a stage act for those who like the show.
Who is paid. Audiences buy tickets, and since any performer could fit the same hardware, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Blaupunkt Holostage
Snake-Eyes, Tom Maddox · 1986
A tabletop unit that shows images with true depth.
built in the 1990s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A tabletop display with true depth, working as the story promises and not as those built so far, would replace flat screens in homes and workplaces, which is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Households buy it, the design can be copied, and the existing screen makers, who own the factories and brands, collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Polycarbon Phone Screen
Count Zero, William Gibson · 1986
A thin folding screen that turns a telephone into a video phone.
built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A fold-out screen is an add-on part; the picture call itself is the larger prize.
Who is paid. Phone owners buy it, a thin folding screen can be copied, and the display makers with the factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Raisin
Nanotime, Bart Kosko · 1987
An in-ear gadget pairing a smart assistant with wireless network access.
built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A helper in the ear that answers questions and reaches the network is far more than a radio and worth an industry.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the ear piece is easy to copy, so the firms that already run the helper and the networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Webcast
Armageddon Blues, D.K. Moran · 1987
Broadcasting shows over a computer network.
built in 1995, 8 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Sending shows over a computer network is how most broadcasts now reach people and is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Viewers pay a fee or sit through adverts, and since the sending is easy to copy, the firms that already own the shows and the networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Book-Film
Prelude to Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1988
A compact medium for keeping the text of books.
built in 1998, 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Books kept in a compact form instead of on paper change what it costs to publish, ship and store them.
Who is paid. Readers buy the books, the storage medium is easy to copy, and the publishers who own the right to the books collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Didge-Ital
Islands in the Net, Bruce Sterling · 1988
Music recorded and played back as computer data.
built in the 1980s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Music kept and played as computer data changes what it costs to record, copy and deliver it.
Who is paid. Listeners pay for the music, the method is open to all, and the labels and artists who own the songs collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Powered Print-Book
Prelude to Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1988
A hybrid object that works partly as a book and partly as a computer.
built in 1998, 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A handheld screen holding many books or the day's paper is worth an industry and cuts the cost of printing and delivery.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the device is easy to copy, so the publishers and shops that already own the books and papers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Print-Book
Prelude to Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1988
An ordinary printed book, treated as a curiosity in a far-future setting.
built since, date unclear
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The ordinary printed book, a curiosity in the story, is in fact worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Readers buy the books, anyone can run a press, and the publishers who own the right to the books collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Projection Rig
Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988
A carryable unit that casts three-dimensional images into the air.
built in the 1990s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Unlike a display with depth for the home, a carryable unit that casts pictures into the air is a tool for shows and displays.
Who is paid. I assumed showmen and firms buy it; many could make one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Video-Glasses
Islands in the Net, Bruce Sterling · 1988
Eyewear with light-collecting optics that let the wearer see all around them.
built in the 1990s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Eyewear whose optics let the wearer see all around is an aid for a few tasks, not a screen for everyday use.
Who is paid. Unlike eyewear that shows video, this only widens the view, so I assume a few people buy it for themselves, and since many can make one, the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Videoshades
Islands in the Net, Bruce Sterling · 1988
Sunglasses with built-in screens for watching chosen video.
built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Screens built into glasses, working as promised, would take over much of what people now do on handheld screens.
Who is paid. People buy them for themselves, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vizzyprint
Wetware, Rudy Rucker · 1988
A printer hooked to a video phone for hard copies of what is shown.
already existed before the story (the 1970s)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Printing what a video phone shows is a small extra for the few times a paper copy is wanted.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and since it is just a printer on a phone, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Watchphone
Islands in the Net, Bruce Sterling · 1988
A wristwatch that doubles as a mobile telephone.
built in 2014, 26 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Judged on the promise of a phone worn on the wrist as the phone people carry everywhere, which changes how most people live and work, though the real ones arrived after the pocket phone and stayed an extra.
Who is paid. People buy one each, a wrist set is as easy to copy as a pocket handset, and the firms that own the networks the calls travel over collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Fatline
Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989
Instant messaging between star systems that outruns light.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Assuming people live around many stars, instant messages between them would be the backbone of all trade and rule across space, an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations and not a pocket set, firms and governments with far-flung operations pay for the traffic, others could build the device once it is known to work, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flat Photo
Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989
An ordinary flat photograph, treated as quaint in the future setting.
already existed before the story (the 1820s)
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The ordinary photograph, quaint in the story, is in fact worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. People pay for cameras and prints, and many firms can make them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Worldweb All Thing
Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989
A network linking vast populations together instantly.
built in the 2000s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A shared network that lets anyone reach knowledge and one another from anywhere changes how most people live and work.
Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for access, and since no one firm can keep others off an open network, the firms that already own the lines and the big gathering places on it collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wrist Command
Tides of Light, Gregory Benford · 1989
A wrist-worn device for communicating and computing on the move.
built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Judged on the promise of a phone worn on the wrist as the phone people carry everywhere, which changes how most people live and work, though the real ones arrived after the pocket phone and stayed an extra.
Who is paid. People buy one each, a wrist set is as easy to copy as a pocket handset, and the firms that own the networks the calls travel over collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Citizen Journalism
Earth, David Brin · 1990
Ordinary people using phones and the web to report the news themselves.
built in the 1990s, about 0 years after it was imagined
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Ordinary people reporting the news themselves is a habit, not a product, and they do it without charge.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, since the phones and the web it relies on are judged separately.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Credibility Rating
Earth, David Brin · 1990
A score attached to online writing that tells readers how trustworthy it is.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A score that reliably told readers what to trust online would reshape news and publishing.
Who is paid. Assuming sites and publishers pay to carry the score, the scorer that readers have come to trust is hard to copy because trust takes long to earn.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
E-Document Distribution
Earth, David Brin · 1990
Beaming a document wirelessly to everyone in a gathering at once.
built in the 2000s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Sending a document to everyone in a room at once saves a little time.
Who is paid. It comes as a feature of devices firms already buy and any maker can add it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Leaf Screens
Sparrowhawk, Thomas A. Easton · 1990
Display panels grown from engineered plants with flat, leaf-like surfaces.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2080s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A thin screen grown like a leaf could replace much printing and most rigid screens.
Who is paid. People buy the panels for their homes, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the growers and screen sellers that already hold stock and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Reading Plaque
Earth, David Brin · 1990
A slim handheld screen used for reading books and documents.
built in the 1990s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A handheld screen holding many books or the day's paper is worth an industry and cuts the cost of printing and delivery.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the device is easy to copy, so the publishers and shops that already own the books and papers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
True-Vu Lenses (Goggles)
Earth, David Brin · 1990
Wearable eyepieces that let the user look through them while capturing video of the scene.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Eyewear that films what the wearer sees is a camera worn on the face, a gadget some people would enjoy.
Who is paid. Unlike eyewear that shows pictures, this only records, so I assume it stays an extra that ordinary people buy, and since many can make one, the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flatscreen Movie
Orbital Resources, John Barnes · 1991
An ordinary flat film, named from the viewpoint of a world used to holographic recordings.
already existed before the story (the 1890s)
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The ordinary flat film, quaint in the story, is in fact worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Audiences pay to watch, anyone can run a projector, and the studios that own the films collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Avatar
Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992
A digital figure that represents a person inside a shared virtual world.
built in 2022, 30 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A figure that stands for you in a virtual world is a feature of that world, bought mostly for looks.
Who is paid. Users pay for their figures and extras, any world could offer them, and the firms that already run the popular worlds collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
DreamTime Scleral Contact Lenses
The California Voodoo Game, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes · 1992
Eye-covering lenses that overlay digital imagery on what the wearer sees.
built in 2016, 24 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Lenses that lay pictures over what you see, working as promised, would take over much of what people now do on handheld screens.
Who is paid. People buy them for themselves, the design is harder than glasses but can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hypercard
Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992
A digital calling card exchanged between users in a virtual world.
built in 2022, 30 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A calling card swapped inside a virtual world is a minor feature of that world.
Who is paid. It comes as a feature of software people already use and any developer can add it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Metaverse
Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992
A shared online three-dimensional world where people meet and interact.
built in 2022, 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A shared online world where people meet would be worth an industry; I judged the promise, which is larger than what was built.
Who is paid. Ordinary people pay; the software can be copied but the crowd already inside cannot, so the first world to fill up keeps most.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Padloid
Steel Beach, John Varley · 1992
A gossip news outlet delivered on a handheld tablet.
built in 2010, 18 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A gossip paper read on a tablet is one more title among many.
Who is paid. Readers pay; anyone can publish gossip, so the publishers who already have the readers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hood Hologram
Virtual Light, William Gibson · 1993
A three-dimensional image projected across a car bonnet.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A picture floating over a car bonnet is decoration, unlike a full display with depth.
Who is paid. Car owners buy it as an ornament and many accessory makers could supply it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Accu-Terrain Floor
Natulife, David Brin · 1994
A shape-changing floor that mimics the ground underfoot in a virtual world.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A floor that copies virtual ground is an add-on for people who already play in virtual worlds.
Who is paid. Assuming a home unit, players buy it, and it is a mechanical floor many firms could build, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Stim-Crib
Natulife, David Brin · 1994
A baby's cot that immerses infants in simulated worlds.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A cot that shows a baby simulated worlds is a luxury for some parents, not a need.
Who is paid. Parents buy it, and I assume it is a home product many firms could make once one had, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Voice-Changing Bowtie
Case Closed (Detective Conan), Gosho Aoyama · 1994
A wearable gadget that makes the wearer sound like someone else.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Sounding like someone else is a toy and a tool for performers and pranksters.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and since many can make a voice changer, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
XV Wedge
Mother of Storms, John Barnes · 1994
A show built from recorded, edited first-person sensory experience that audiences relive.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Reliving another person's recorded senses would be a new mass entertainment to rival film.
Who is paid. Audiences pay for each show, and once the recording method was known others could use it, so the studios that already own stars and stories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mediaglyphic
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
Moving pictograms that stand in for written text for people who cannot read.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Moving signs that stand in for text help those who cannot read, a narrow use once judged as the work of devising and drawing them.
Who is paid. Assuming publishers and sign makers pay designers to draw the signs, as an army would pay for a battle language, a way of writing cannot be owned and any designer could offer it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mediatronic Display
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
Large, thin sheets of digital paper that can show any text or image.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A screen as thin and bendable as paper could replace much printing and most rigid screens.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it inside the things they own; once shown it can be copied, so the firms with the big screen factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Phantoscope (phenomenoscope)
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
An eye-worn or implanted screen that overlays computer imagery on vision.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Information laid over what you see would change many jobs and daily errands; I judged the promise, which is larger than what has been sold.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the glasses can be copied, so the firms that already hold the software and the information shown collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Phased Acoustical Array
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
A tiny audio system fitted onto the eardrum to play sound straight into the ear.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Sound fed straight into the ear is a convenience over an ordinary radio or speaker.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it and many firms can make tiny ear pieces, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Runcible
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
A bound volume whose every leaf is a thin, bendable electronic screen.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A handheld screen holding many books or the day's paper is worth an industry and cuts the cost of printing and delivery.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the device is easy to copy, so the publishers and shops that already own the books and papers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Smart Paper
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
An ultra-thin flexible screen sheet that behaves like paper.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A screen as thin and bendable as paper could replace much printing and most rigid screens.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it inside the things they own; once shown it can be copied, so the firms with the big screen factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Eyephone(s)
Idoru, William Gibson · 1996
Compact goggles that beam pictures straight onto the wearer's eyes.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Goggles that put pictures straight onto the eyes, working as promised, would take over much of what people now do on handheld screens.
Who is paid. People buy them for themselves, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Synthespian
Idoru, William Gibson · 1996
A computer-generated celebrity who performs and interacts with fans as if real.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A made-up star who performs and answers fans as if real could carry a whole entertainment business.
Who is paid. Fans pay for the music, the shows and the goods, and though one character can be owned, any studio could make a star of its own, so the studios and labels that already own the stages and the audiences collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
UPUD
First to Fight, David Sherman (w/Cragg) · 1997
A satellite position and communications link used by soldiers in the field.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Knowing where every soldier is and being able to reach them from orbit changes how an army fights.
Who is paid. The armed forces pay, and since several firms could build the handsets and satellites, those that already hold defence contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Boob Cube
The Best of all Possible Wars, Larry Niven · 1998
A box that shows television news as solid holographic scenes.
built in the 2010s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A box showing broadcasts as solid scenes, working as the story promises and not as those built so far, would replace flat screens in homes, which is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Households buy it, the design can be copied, and the existing screen makers, who own the factories and brands, collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Desktop-TV
Factoring Humanity, Robert J. Sawyer · 1998
User-made video that anyone can publish and anyone worldwide can watch.
built in 2005, 7 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Video that anyone can publish and anyone can watch is a new entertainment industry.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay to reach the viewers, and the site where the makers and the audience have already gathered is hard to copy because each side goes where the other is.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Monobloc Dating System
The Best of all Possible Wars, Larry Niven · 1998
A bar fitted with special machines and software that pair up patrons for romance.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A bar that pairs up its patrons is a niche amusement.
Who is paid. Patrons pay and any bar could install such machines, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Interactive Video Column
All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999
A shop display streaming live views from sister stores around the world.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A display of live views from other shops is a decoration for a store.
Who is paid. Shop chains buy it, a screen and a camera link can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Motion Capture Suit
All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999
A sensor-studded bodysuit that records movement to animate computer graphics.
already existed before the story (the 1970s)
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A suit that records movement is a tool for film and game makers.
Who is paid. Studios buy it and many firms can make one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Video Wallpaper
A Deepness in the Sky, Vernor Vinge · 1999
Wall-sized ultra-thin screens that cover surfaces like wallpaper.
built in the 1990s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A thin screen for the wall is the form nearly every display now takes and is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
E-paper Newspaper
Minority Report (Movie), Steven Spielberg · 2002
A bendable electronic sheet that shows a full page of news that updates.
already existed before the story (1997)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A bendable sheet that shows updating news is a nicer way to read what a handheld screen already shows.
Who is paid. Readers buy it, the sheet can be copied, and the display makers with the factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Immersive Home Video
Minority Report (Movie), Steven Spielberg · 2002
A projection system that lets people step into and replay family recordings.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A picture with depth that you can step into, here used for family recordings, would replace flat screens for home viewing.
Who is paid. Households buy it, the design can be copied, and the existing screen makers, who own the factories and brands, collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Maelstrom
Maelstrom, Peter Watts · 2002
An imagined successor to today's global computer network.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A worldwide network linking every person and machine changes how most people live and work.
Who is paid. Ordinary people and firms pay for access; the methods are open, so those who own the cables and exchanges collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Minority Report Ads (Biometric Personalized Ads)
Minority Report (Movie), Steven Spielberg · 2002
Street displays that recognise passers-by and pitch products to them personally.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Unlike a plain sign, a display that knows each passer-by and pitches to them personally would change what public advertising is worth.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay; the screens are easy to copy, so those who already hold the sites and the records about people collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
E-Sheet
Darwin's Children, Greg Bear · 2003
A cheap throwaway sheet that displays digital messages.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A throwaway sheet that shows a message is a convenience where paper or a screen would also do.
Who is paid. Unlike a lasting electronic newspaper, this is cheap and disposable by design, so many firms make it and none keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
E-paper Hologram
Darwin's Children, Greg Bear · 2003
A cover on thin electronic paper showing a three-dimensional picture.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A picture with depth on a cover is decoration, unlike a full display with depth.
Who is paid. Publishers and packagers would buy it to dress up a cover, and once thin electronic paper exists many printers could supply it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Speaker Chips
Darwin's Children, Greg Bear · 2003
Tiny chips in books that read aloud and pitch the book to shoppers.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A chip that makes a book pitch itself from the shelf is one more way to advertise.
Who is paid. Publishers pay to put the chip in their own books, and since the chip is the thing sold and is cheap and simple to copy, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bee Cam
City of Pearl, Karen Traviss · 2004
A tiny self-steering flying camera that follows and films its owner.
built in the 2010s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A tiny camera that follows and films you is a gadget for hobbyists and people who film themselves.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves and many electronics firms could make small flying cameras, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Implanted Comlink
Savior, Nancy Kress · 2004
A radio set embedded under the skin.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A phone inside the body that is never lost or left behind would be worth an industry, though surgery would put many people off.
Who is paid. Assuming it is a phone and not only an ear radio, people buy it for themselves, the device can be copied, and the firms that own the phone networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Signal Skin
The Algebraist, Iain M Banks · 2004
An alien species' skin that displays written words as its natural way to talk.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a creature's nature or a state of mind, not something made and sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Answerboard
Rainbows End, Vernor Vinge · 2006
An online question forum where specialists answer queries on a subject.
already existed before the story (the 1980s)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A forum where specialists answer questions is a handy service for those with a question, not a need.
Who is paid. People with questions pay or are shown advertisements, and the forum that already has the specialists gathered is hard to copy because the experts go where the askers are.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Librareome Project
Rainbows End, Vernor Vinge · 2006
A project to destroy physical library books while scanning them into a complete digital collection.
already existed before the story (the 1990s)
A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Every library book in one searchable collection would be worth an industry to readers and researchers.
Who is paid. Assuming readers pay by fee or subscription as for any library of digital books, the paper copies are destroyed in the scanning, so whoever holds the only complete collection has what nobody else can get.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mobile Advertisements
Sagramanda, Alan Dean Foster · 2006
Commercial messages that appear floating in the open air above public places.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Adverts thrown into people's path are one more way to advertise, not a new need.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay, the projector is easy to copy and nobody owns the open air it shines into, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pocket-Sized Ad-Blocker
Sagramanda, Alan Dean Foster · 2006
A carry-around gadget that shields its owner from personalised adverts.
already existed before the story (the 1990s)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Shielding yourself from pestering adverts is a convenience.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it and many firms could make one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Voxcoder
Storm Thief, Chris Wooding · 2006
A gadget that scrambles voice calls so nobody can listen in.
already existed before the story (the 1900s)
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Keeping a call private matters to a narrow set of users with secrets worth guarding.
Who is paid. Firms with secrets buy it, and since the method of garbling speech is well known and easy to copy, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Blacknet
Halting State, Charles Stross · 2007
A hidden online network for criminal and hostile collaboration.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A hidden network serves the few who must work out of sight, here criminals and hostile groups, though the law forbids it.
Who is paid. Assuming the groups that use it pay for access, anyone with the know-how can set up a hidden network and the law pursues whoever runs it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Digital Paper Pad
KOP, Warren Hammond · 2007
An extremely thin molecular display pad that stores and shows data.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A paper-thin pad that stores and shows information is the handheld screen at the centre of personal devices, an industry of its own.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Overlay Specs
Halting State, Charles Stross · 2007
Glasses that lay digital information over the real world.
built in the 2010s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Information laid over what you see would change many jobs and daily errands; I judged the promise, which is larger than what has been sold.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the glasses can be copied, so the firms that already hold the software and the information shown collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
SPOOKS
Halting State, Charles Stross · 2007
A live role-playing game in which ordinary citizens pretend to be secret agents in the real world.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A game of pretend spying in real streets is an amusement for the people who like that sort of play.
Who is paid. Players pay to join, and since the description does not say the game needs a single shared crowd, I assume any organiser could run one like it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Kinagram
Anathem, Neal Stephenson · 2008
Small printed pictures that appear to move.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Small printed pictures that seem to move are a novelty.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy them and any printer could make them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dattoo
Mariposa, Greg Bear · 2009
A thin electronic patch applied to the skin that swaps information with nearby devices.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A skin patch that swaps information with nearby devices is a convenience next to a card or a phone.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves and thin printed electronics can be made by many firms, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
EPR Phone
Mariposa, Greg Bear · 2009
A telephone service secured by quantum physics so any interception of a call becomes detectable.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Calls that reveal any eavesdropping matter greatly to a few callers with secrets and little to everyone else.
Who is paid. Firms and officials with secrets pay extra for it, the method comes from known physics that others could use, and the firms that own the phone networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Metallic Display Scroll
Freedom, Daniel Suarez · 2010
A video screen flexible enough to be rolled up like a sheet of paper.
built in 2020, 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A screen as thin and bendable as paper could replace much printing and most rigid screens.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it inside the things they own; once shown it can be copied, so the firms with the big screen factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
DNA Publishing
Spiral, Paul McEuen · 2011
Writing literary text into genetic code so copies multiply along with the molecule.
built in the 2010s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Writing a book into genetic code is a curiosity beside ordinary storage.
Who is paid. Assuming archives and publishers pay for it as long-term storage, many laboratories can write genetic code, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
DNA Music Storage
Year Zero, Rob Reid · 2012
Storing recorded songs inside non-coding stretches of an organism's genome.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Keeping songs inside a living thing's genes is a curiosity beside ordinary storage.
Who is paid. Assuming archives and labels pay for it as long-term storage, many laboratories can write genetic code, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
OLED Body Film
Waste Tide, Chen Qiufan · 2019
Flexible light-emitting display material worn on or placed under the skin as ornament.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Glowing ornament on the skin is a fashion item.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; once shown many firms could make it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Burner Modem
The Breach, M.T. Hill · 2020
A cheap network connection device meant to be discarded after use.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A network connection you throw away after use serves the few who want not to be traced.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves and it is cheap by design and simple to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.