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Futures · kind of technology

Communication, media and displays

Dated forecasts about this kind of technology from the singularity reading list, then every idea of this kind in the order stories first imagined it.

Illustration for Communication, media and displaysIllustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dated forecasts

  • Kokotajlo expects AI models tuned to measurably shift people's opinions to be in heavy use by political campaigns in 2024.

    Daniel Kokotajlo · 2024 · consuming this content pushes people towards opinion X

    From What 2026 Looks Like, Daniel Kokotajlo, 2021

  • Kurzweil expects glasses and contact lenses that draw images straight onto the retina to deliver immersive sight-and-sound worlds by 2009.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2009 · Full immersion visual-auditory environments will be available by the end of this decade

    From The Law of Accelerating Returns, Ray Kurzweil, 2001

  • Kurzweil expects websites to become visual and audio virtual spaces by 2009, staffed by simulated people good enough for sales and booking work.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2009

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Kokotajlo expects chatbot use by 2026 to span a user base in the hundreds of millions, as assistant and companion apps merge.

    Daniel Kokotajlo · by 2026 · hundreds of millions of people talk regularly to chatbots of some sort

    From What 2026 Looks Like, Daniel Kokotajlo, 2021

  • Kurzweil expects nanobots by 2030 to deliver shared, full-immersion virtual reality engaging every sense, so that visiting a website means stepping inside it.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2030 · going to a web site will mean entering a full immersion virtual reality environment

    From The Law of Accelerating Returns, Ray Kurzweil, 2001; The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

Imagined, oldest first

How large a prize, and which seller keeps the rest

Each idea is judged as if it worked the way its story promises: how large a prize it would be, who would pay, and which seller would keep what is left once buyers have had their gain. Choose a cell to see only those ideas; each count is the cards that cell shows. Every placing is a model's judgement, not a reading.

SellerA vast prizeA large prizeA small prizeNo prize
No seller keeps much
The maker keeps the rest
Existing firms keep the rest
Permit holders keep the rest
Nothing is sold

Illustration of Whispering Gallery: Rooms curved so that a quiet voice carries clearly to a distant point.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Whispering Gallery

Journey to the Center of the Earth, Jules Verne · 1864

Rooms curved so that a quiet voice carries clearly to a distant point.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A room shaped so a whisper carries is a curiosity for visitors; unlike the prison's chance echo, it is something a builder can be hired to make.

Who is paid. Owners of halls and museums pay for it, and since any skilled builder can shape such a room, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Communicate with Extraterrestrials: A scheme for signalling to living beings on distant worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Communicate with Extraterrestrials

From the Earth to the Moon, Jules Verne · 1867

A scheme for signalling to living beings on distant worlds.

built in the 1960s, about 100 years after it was imagined

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Signalling to beings on other worlds satisfies curiosity and earns nothing unless someone answers.

Who is paid. Nobody could be charged for it one by one, so a government pays, and the observatories and builders that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Home News Printer: A household machine that produces a paper copy of whichever newspaper you pick, sent over a wire.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Home News Printer

The Senator's Daughter, Edward Page Mitchell · 1879

A household machine that produces a paper copy of whichever newspaper you pick, sent over a wire.

built in the 1970s, about 100 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Printing the paper at home saves a delivery and is a convenience for readers.

Who is paid. Readers pay for the machine and the paper they pick, the machine is easy to copy, and the newspapers that own the news collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Telephonoscope: A screen that carries live images and sound from far away into the home.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telephonoscope

Le Vingtième Siècle (The Twentieth Century), Albert Robida · 1883

A screen that carries live images and sound from far away into the home.

built in the 1930s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Seeing distant events live at home changed how most people spend their evenings and learn the news.

Who is paid. Households buy sets and pay for channels, and since sets are easy to copy, the firms that own the factories, the stations and the networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Telephonic Music Room: Rooms wired to carry live concerts from distant halls so listeners can hear them whenever they like.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telephonic Music Room

Looking Backward, Edward Bellamy · 1888

Rooms wired to carry live concerts from distant halls so listeners can hear them whenever they like.

built in the 2000s, about 120 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Hearing any concert at home whenever you like is how most music now reaches people, and it is worth an industry.

Who is paid. Listeners pay a regular fee, and since the wiring is easy to copy, the firms that already own the music and the lines into homes collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Atmospheric Advertising: Projecting huge commercial messages onto the clouds so entire cities can see them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atmospheric Advertising

In the Year 2889, Jules Verne · 1889

Projecting huge commercial messages onto the clouds so entire cities can see them.

built in the 2020s, about 140 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Messages on the clouds are one more place to show advertisements, and they depend on the weather.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and anyone with a strong projector can light up the sky, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Live News: Reporters speak the day's events directly to subscribers as they happen rather than printing them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Live News

In the Year 2889, Jules Verne · 1889

Reporters speak the day's events directly to subscribers as they happen rather than printing them.

built in the 1980s, about 100 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. News spoken to subscribers as it happens is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Subscribers pay, sending speech is easy to copy, and the firms that already gather the news collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Phonotelephote: A device for two-way conversation where each party both hears and sees the other.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Phonotelephote

In the Year 2889, Jules Verne · 1889

A device for two-way conversation where each party both hears and sees the other.

built in the 2010s, about 130 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Seeing the person you talk to changes how families keep in touch and how firms meet.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the screens and cameras are easy to copy, so the firms that own the networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Recorded News: Storing spoken news so listeners can replay it whenever they choose.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Recorded News

In the Year 2889, Jules Verne · 1889

Storing spoken news so listeners can replay it whenever they choose.

built in the 1990s, about 110 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Getting the news at the moment and place you choose is a convenience over waiting for the paper.

Who is paid. Readers pay; the machine is easy to copy, so the news firms that already gather the reports collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Planetary Telegraphing: Exchanging messages with beings believed to live on the Sun's other planets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Planetary Telegraphing

In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897

Exchanging messages with beings believed to live on the Sun's other planets.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Messages to beings only believed to live on other planets satisfy curiosity and earn nothing unless someone answers.

Who is paid. Nobody could be charged for it one by one, so a government pays, and the observatories and builders that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Aerial Telegraph: Radio links letting people in sealed suits talk to each other.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Aerial Telegraph

Edison's Conquest of Mars, Garrett P. Serviss · 1898

Radio links letting people in sealed suits talk to each other.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Radio between people in sealed suits is essential to the few who work in such suits and of no use to anyone else.

Who is paid. Assuming the suits are worn by space crews and the like, a government pays, and the firms that already supply suits and radios to such programmes collect because the radio is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Babble Machine: Loudspeaker devices that pour a constant stream of news, gossip and propaganda at the public.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Babble Machine

When the Sleeper Wakes, H.G. Wells · 1899

Loudspeaker devices that pour a constant stream of news, gossip and propaganda at the public.

built in 1927, 28 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A constant stream of news and persuasion aimed at the public is broadcasting, which is an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Advertisers and political interests pay to reach the crowd, the description names no scarce channels and the loudspeakers are easy to copy, so the news firms that already own the audience and the places the speakers stand collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of DVD/VCR (Entertainment Player): A machine that plays back stored films or shows for viewing on demand.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

DVD/VCR (Entertainment Player)

When the Sleeper Wakes, H.G. Wells · 1899

A machine that plays back stored films or shows for viewing on demand.

built in 1996, 97 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Watching stored films whenever you choose is home entertainment, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Households buy the player and the films, players are easy to copy, and the studios that own the films collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Kinetiscope Appliance: A pocket-sized device that displays a range of pictures, both real and invented.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Kinetiscope Appliance

When the Sleeper Wakes, H.G. Wells · 1899

A pocket-sized device that displays a range of pictures, both real and invented.

built in the 2010s, about 120 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A personal screen for watching films and pictures anywhere is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; many firms can make the device, so those who already own the films and the ways to deliver them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Moving Picture Player: A personal screen machine that replays recorded films for one viewer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Moving Picture Player

When the Sleeper Wakes, H.G. Wells · 1899

A personal screen machine that replays recorded films for one viewer.

built in 1996, 97 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A personal screen for watching films and pictures anywhere is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; many firms can make the device, so those who already own the films and the ways to deliver them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Interplanetary Radiograph Station: A chain of radio relay stations linking the planets into one messaging network.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Interplanetary Radiograph Station

On The Martian Way, Harry Gore Bishop · 1907

A chain of radio relay stations linking the planets into one messaging network.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Assuming the planets are settled as in the story, a message link among them carries all their trade and news, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Assuming firms and settlers pay by the message, nothing described stops a rival from building its own stations, so the carriers and fleet owners who already hold the home networks where every message starts and ends, and the ships to place and tend stations, collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cinematophote (Blue Optic Plate): A flat portable display small enough to hold in one hand.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cinematophote (Blue Optic Plate)

The Machine Stops, E.M. Forster · 1909

A flat portable display small enough to hold in one hand.

built in the 2010s, about 110 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A flat screen you hold in one hand is the face of nearly every modern personal device, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Video Communicator: Carries sound and moving pictures together so callers can watch one another while talking.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Video Communicator

The Machine Stops, E.M. Forster · 1909

Carries sound and moving pictures together so callers can watch one another while talking.

built in the 2010s, about 110 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Seeing the person you are talking to is something most people now use, and it is worth an industry.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for the device and the line, and since many can make the device, the firms that already own the phone networks and handset brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Personalized News: Delivers a news feed tailored to each reader's interests.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Personalized News

Ralph 124c 41 +, Hugo Gernsback · 1911

Delivers a news feed tailored to each reader's interests.

built in 2002, 91 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. News sorted to each reader's interests changes how the news trade reaches people.

Who is paid. Readers pay by subscription; the sorting is easy to copy, so those who already hold the reporting and the audience collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Telautograph: Sends a copy of a written page over wires to a distant machine that reproduces it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telautograph

Ralph 124c 41 +, Hugo Gernsback · 1911

Sends a copy of a written page over wires to a distant machine that reproduces it.

built in the 1960s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Sending a copy of a written page down a wire in moments saved offices days of post and was worth an industry.

Who is paid. Offices buy the machines, and since many firms can make them and all must work together, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Telephot: A telephone with a screen so callers see as well as hear each other.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telephot

Ralph 124c 41 +, Hugo Gernsback · 1911

A telephone with a screen so callers see as well as hear each other.

built in 2007, 96 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Seeing the person you are talking to is something most people now use, and it is worth an industry.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for the device and the line, and since many can make the device, the firms that already own the phone networks and handset brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pocket wireless phone: A cordless telephone small enough to carry in a pocket anywhere.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pocket wireless phone

John Jones's Dollar, Harry Stephen Keeler · 1915

A cordless telephone small enough to carry in a pocket anywhere.

built in 1973, 58 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A phone carried everywhere changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; handsets are easy to copy, so the firms that own the networks and airwaves collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Visaphone System Zoom Call: A video meeting shown on a large wall display.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Visaphone System Zoom Call

John Jones's Dollar, Harry Stephen Keeler · 1915

A video meeting shown on a large wall display.

built in the 2000s, about 90 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Letting a scattered group meet by sound and picture saves firms a great deal of travel and is worth an industry.

Who is paid. Unlike a call between two people, a group meeting is mostly bought by firms for work, and as it is easy to copy, those that already own the networks and office software collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Open-Air Moving Picture Shows: Outdoor screens showing news to crowds in public places.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Open-Air Moving Picture Shows

The Messiah of the Cylinder, Victor Rousseau · 1917

Outdoor screens showing news to crowds in public places.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Outdoor screens showing news to crowds are a public convenience.

Who is paid. I assumed advertisers pay for the audience; screens are easy to copy, so the owners of the busy sites collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tele-Photophonic Attachment: An add-on camera that lets a public talking station transmit images too.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tele-Photophonic Attachment

The Messiah of the Cylinder, Victor Rousseau · 1917

An add-on camera that lets a public talking station transmit images too.

built in 2007, 90 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Seeing the person you are talking to is something most people now use, and it is worth an industry.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for the device and the line, and since many can make the device, the firms that already own the phone networks and handset brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Telephone Funnel: A public speaker unit that both broadcasts and picks up voices for conversation.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telephone Funnel

The Messiah of the Cylinder, Victor Rousseau · 1917

A public speaker unit that both broadcasts and picks up voices for conversation.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A fixed loudspeaker system for speaking to people in public places is an ordinary piece of public equipment.

Who is paid. The authorities pay to install it in streets and squares, and since it is easy to make, the firms that already hold such supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Photophone: A booth-to-booth link that shows the person in the far booth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Photophone

The Planeteer, Michael Flynn · 1918

A booth-to-booth link that shows the person in the far booth.

built in the 1930s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Seeing the person you talk to changes how families keep in touch and how firms meet.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the screens and cameras are easy to copy, so the firms that own the networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Acoustic Apparatus (Osophone): Delivers sound to the inner ear through vibrations in the skull.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Acoustic Apparatus (Osophone)

Acoustic Apparatus, Hugo Gernsback · 1923

Delivers sound to the inner ear through vibrations in the skull.

built in 2012, 89 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Hearing through the skull bones helps some people with poor hearing and suits a few uses, but for most it is one more kind of earphone.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves and the vibrating part is simple to make, so many firms sell it and none keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Networked Telephone Answering Machine: Records spoken messages and lets the owner play them back by calling in from elsewhere.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Networked Telephone Answering Machine

Men Like Gods, H.G. Wells · 1923

Records spoken messages and lets the owner play them back by calling in from elsewhere.

built in the 1970s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Hearing your messages from anywhere is a convenience.

Who is paid. Phone users pay; it is easy to copy, so the firms that own the phone networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Wireless Access Point: Infrastructure that beams both electricity and data through the air to nearby devices.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wireless Access Point

Men Like Gods, H.G. Wells · 1923

Infrastructure that beams both electricity and data through the air to nearby devices.

built in 1999, 76 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Beaming power as well as data through the air would free devices from plugs and batteries, which goes well beyond the real thing that only carries data.

Who is paid. Households and firms pay for the service, and since the method could be copied, the firms that already own the power lines and networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Chest Disc: A chest-worn radio that transmits whenever the wearer speaks.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chest Disc

Armageddon: 2419 A.D., Philip Frances Nowlan · 1928

A chest-worn radio that transmits whenever the wearer speaks.

built in 2011, 83 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A radio worn on the chest that sends whenever you speak is a hands-free tool for teams, not a phone for everyone.

Who is paid. Unlike a pocket phone on a public network, this is a short-range team radio that work crews and soldiers would be issued, and many firms can make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Telestereo: A round screen showing a live image of someone calling from far away.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telestereo

Crashing Suns, Edmond Hamilton · 1928

A round screen showing a live image of someone calling from far away.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Seeing the person you are talking to is something most people now use, and it is worth an industry.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for the device and the line, and since many can make the device, the firms that already own the phone networks and handset brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ultraphone Ear-Disc: Wireless earpieces that sit on the ears and cut out background noise.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ultraphone Ear-Disc

Armageddon: 2419 A.D., Philip Frances Nowlan · 1928

Wireless earpieces that sit on the ears and cut out background noise.

built in the 1980s, about 60 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Earpieces that shut out background noise are a comfort many like but few need.

Who is paid. People buy them for themselves and small earpieces are simple for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ultrophone: A radio link letting both sides talk and listen at the same moment.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ultrophone

Armageddon: 2419 A.D., Philip Frances Nowlan · 1928

A radio link letting both sides talk and listen at the same moment.

built in the 1920s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Letting both sides talk at once is an improvement to radio sets that already exist.

Who is paid. Operators of ships and aircraft buy the sets, and since many can make them, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Videophone: A personal link that sends pictures along with voices between two people.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Videophone

The Golden Girl of Munan, Harl Vincent · 1928

A personal link that sends pictures along with voices between two people.

built in the 1930s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Seeing the person you are talking to is something most people now use, and it is worth an industry.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for the device and the line, and since many can make the device, the firms that already own the phone networks and handset brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Viewplate: A thin flat screen for showing pictures.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Viewplate

Armageddon: 2419 A.D., Philip Frances Nowlan · 1928

A thin flat screen for showing pictures.

built in the 1990s, about 70 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A thin screen for the wall is the form nearly every display now takes and is an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Instant Photography: A camera that produces a finished print within moments of taking the shot.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Instant Photography

The Silent Destroyer, Henri Dahl Juve · 1929

A camera that produces a finished print within moments of taking the shot.

built in the 1940s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A finished print in moments is a convenience over waiting for film to be developed.

Who is paid. People buy the camera and the film, and once the trick of a self-developing print is known other camera makers could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Life Chamber: A room where machines surround a visitor with sights, sounds and sensations so convincing it feels like living another reality.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Life Chamber

The Chamber of Life, G. Peyton Wertenbaker · 1929

A room where machines surround a visitor with sights, sounds and sensations so convincing it feels like living another reality.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An artificial world that feels real would be worth an entertainment industry of its own; I judged the full promise, which is larger than anything sold so far.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the machine can be copied once shown, so those who already own the stories and worlds people want to enter collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Massive Open Learning: Recorded lessons from top instructors distributed widely so many students learn from the same material.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Massive Open Learning

The Threat of the Robot, David H. Keller · 1929

Recorded lessons from top instructors distributed widely so many students learn from the same material.

built in the 2000s, about 80 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The best teachers reaching every student would cut the cost of schooling; I judged the promise, which is larger than what was built.

Who is paid. Assuming students and families pay for the lessons themselves, and since a school subject belongs to nobody the way a novel or a song does and no certificate is described, anyone can record and sell lessons, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Pay Per View TV: Viewers pay a fee to watch a live sporting event streamed or broadcast to their own home screen.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pay Per View TV

The Threat of the Robot, David H. Keller · 1929

Viewers pay a fee to watch a live sporting event streamed or broadcast to their own home screen.

built in the 1970s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Paying to watch a live match at home is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Viewers pay; the sending is easy to copy, so those who already own the sporting events and the broadcast networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Teleview: An apparatus for watching faraway scenes as they happen.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Teleview

The Phantom Teleview, Bob Olsen · 1929

An apparatus for watching faraway scenes as they happen.

built in the 1940s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Seeing distant events live at home changed how most people spend their evenings and learn the news.

Who is paid. Households buy sets and pay for channels, and since sets are easy to copy, the firms that own the factories, the stations and the networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Television Sheet: A thin, wide display panel that hangs like a picture and shows broadcast video in the home.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Television Sheet

The Threat of the Robot, David H. Keller · 1929

A thin, wide display panel that hangs like a picture and shows broadcast video in the home.

built in the 1990s, about 70 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Unlike the first television sets, this is a thinner form of a set people are assumed to have already, so the gain is a better screen, which is an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Televisor: A screen that displays images sent from elsewhere.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Televisor

The Phantom Teleview, Bob Olsen · 1929

A screen that displays images sent from elsewhere.

built in the 1920s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Seeing distant events live at home changed how most people spend their evenings and learn the news.

Who is paid. Households buy sets and pay for channels, and since sets are easy to copy, the firms that own the factories, the stations and the networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Tight-Beam: Sends messages along a tightly focused energy beam so only the intended receiver picks them up.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tight-Beam

Skylark Three, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1930

Sends messages along a tightly focused energy beam so only the intended receiver picks them up.

built in the 1960s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A beam only the intended receiver can pick up matters to those with secrets to keep, a narrow group.

Who is paid. Armed forces and space agencies pay for it, and since the method can be copied, the firms that already hold their radio contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Visiplate: A thin display panel showing pictures transmitted from far away.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Visiplate

Skylark Three, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1930

A thin display panel showing pictures transmitted from far away.

built in the 1990s, about 60 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Unlike the first television sets, this is a thinner form of a set people are assumed to have already, so the gain is a better screen, which is an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Adoption of Television: Forecasts that television will reach nearly every household and empty out cinemas.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Adoption of Television

Prima Donna 1980, Bernard Brown · 1931

Forecasts that television will reach nearly every household and empty out cinemas.

built in the 1950s, about 20 years after it was imagined

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a forecast about how far television would spread, which is an event and not a thing anyone could buy.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold by the forecast itself; the sets and the broadcasts it speaks of are judged under their own names.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Optophone (Opto): A screen-based telephone that lets callers see each other while they talk.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Optophone (Opto)

Too Many Boards!, Harl Vincent · 1931

A screen-based telephone that lets callers see each other while they talk.

built in 1964, 33 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Seeing the person you talk to changes how families keep in touch and how firms meet.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the screens and cameras are easy to copy, so the firms that own the networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Perfect Voice Modulation: Software that synthesizes a flawless-sounding human singer with no live performer needed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Perfect Voice Modulation

Prima Donna 1980, Bernard Brown · 1931

Software that synthesizes a flawless-sounding human singer with no live performer needed.

built in the 1990s, about 60 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A flawless singer with no live performer would change the costs of the whole music trade.

Who is paid. Listeners pay, many could run such software, and because only the voice is replaced and not the songs, those who own the songs collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Selenium Photo-Electric Televisor: A light-sensitive cell made from selenium used to turn images into electrical signals.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Selenium Photo-Electric Televisor

A Daring Trip To Mars, Max Valier · 1931

A light-sensitive cell made from selenium used to turn images into electrical signals.

already existed before the story (the 1870s)

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A light-sensitive cell is one part inside a camera, not a product people seek out.

Who is paid. Equipment makers buy it and many firms can make such cells, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spacegram: A text messaging service relaying short written dispatches between ships and worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spacegram

An Adventure on Eros, J. Harvey Haggard · 1931

A text messaging service relaying short written dispatches between ships and worlds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Carrying messages between ships and worlds would be a telegraph industry for a settled solar system, assuming there are many people out there to serve.

Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations, ship owners and firms trading between worlds pay for the traffic, the link is ordinary radio that others could build, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Suit-Phone: A radio built into a spacesuit so people outside can talk to each other.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Suit-Phone

The Sargasso of Space, Edmond Hamilton · 1931

A radio built into a spacesuit so people outside can talk to each other.

built in the 1960s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A radio in a spacesuit is a needed part for the few people who work outside a ship.

Who is paid. Space agencies pay for it as part of the suit, and since it is an ordinary radio, the firms that already hold the suit contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Tele-Audiovized Meeting: Lets people in separate places hold a group meeting by sharing live sound and moving pictures.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tele-Audiovized Meeting

Exiles of the Moon, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931

Lets people in separate places hold a group meeting by sharing live sound and moving pictures.

built in 2011, 80 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Letting a scattered group meet by sound and picture saves firms a great deal of travel and is worth an industry.

Who is paid. Unlike a call between two people, a group meeting is mostly bought by firms for work, and as it is easy to copy, those that already own the networks and office software collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Telephotography: Transmitting images to a far location and showing them on a huge display.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telephotography

The Cosmic Cloud, Bruno H. Burgel · 1931

Transmitting images to a far location and showing them on a huge display.

already existed before the story (the 1920s)

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Seeing distant events live at home changed how most people spend their evenings and learn the news.

Who is paid. Assuming the huge display stands for the home set and not a hall, households buy sets and pay for channels, and since sets are easy to copy, the firms that own the factories, the stations and the networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Televisiophone: A personal device that carries live video alongside voice so two people can see and hear each other.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Televisiophone

Islands of Space, John W. Campbell · 1931

A personal device that carries live video alongside voice so two people can see and hear each other.

built in 1964, 33 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Seeing the person you are talking to is something most people now use, and it is worth an industry.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for the device and the line, and since many can make the device, the firms that already own the phone networks and handset brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Telucid: A projector that shows three-dimensional images floating in open air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telucid

If The Sun Died, R.F. Starzl · 1931

A projector that shows three-dimensional images floating in open air.

built in the 1960s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A picture with true depth standing in the room would replace the flat screen and be worth an industry of its own; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.

Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Virtual Assembly: Brings far-flung people together as projected three-dimensional images so they can meet as one group.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Virtual Assembly

If The Sun Died, R.F. Starzl · 1931

Brings far-flung people together as projected three-dimensional images so they can meet as one group.

built in 2020, 89 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Letting a scattered group meet by sound and picture saves firms a great deal of travel and is worth an industry.

Who is paid. Unlike a call between two people, a group meeting is mostly bought by firms for work, and as it is easy to copy, those that already own the networks and office software collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Daisy Projector: Sends a signal beam through the upper atmosphere's reflective layer so planets can talk to each other.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Daisy Projector

The Derelicts of Ganymede, John W. Campbell · 1932

Sends a signal beam through the upper atmosphere's reflective layer so planets can talk to each other.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Assuming the planets are settled as in the story, a link between them carries all their trade and news.

Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations, firms on each planet pay for the traffic, the beam is ordinary radio that others could build, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ether-Traffic: The shared band of radio channels that ships and planets use to talk across the solar system.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ether-Traffic

The Duel on the Asteroid, P. Schuyler Miller (w/D. McDermott · 1932

The shared band of radio channels that ships and planets use to talk across the solar system.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The shared radio channels are what every ship and planet needs in order to talk, so the right to use them is worth an industry.

Who is paid. Ship operators and broadcasters pay for channels, and since users cannot share a channel a government hands out a limited number of rights, which those who hold them can charge for.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Feelies (Feely): Films that let the audience physically feel what is happening on screen as well as seeing and hearing it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Feelies (Feely)

Brave New World, Aldous Huxley · 1932

Films that let the audience physically feel what is happening on screen as well as seeing and hearing it.

built in the 2010s, about 80 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Feeling what happens on screen is an extra on top of the cinema people already have.

Who is paid. Audiences pay at the box office, the equipment can be copied, and the studios and cinema chains that own the films and the halls collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of News-Dispenser: Plays spoken news reports on demand whenever the listener chooses.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

News-Dispenser

After Armageddon, Francis Flagg · 1932

Plays spoken news reports on demand whenever the listener chooses.

built in the 2010s, about 80 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Getting the news at the moment and place you choose is a convenience over waiting for the paper.

Who is paid. Readers pay; the machine is easy to copy, so the news firms that already gather the reports collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Scent-Organ: A machine that releases chosen smells on cue, played like an instrument of odours.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Scent-Organ

Brave New World, Aldous Huxley · 1932

A machine that releases chosen smells on cue, played like an instrument of odours.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Smells on cue add a novelty to shows and homes.

Who is paid. I assumed households and showmen buy it; once shown, many firms could make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tele-Screen: A display panel that shows events as they happen far away.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tele-Screen

After Armageddon, Francis Flagg · 1932

A display panel that shows events as they happen far away.

already existed before the story (1927)

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Seeing distant events live at home changed how most people spend their evenings and learn the news.

Who is paid. Households buy sets and pay for channels, and since sets are easy to copy, the firms that own the factories, the stations and the networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Telectroscope: An electrically enhanced instrument that sees far more distant detail than ordinary optical scopes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telectroscope

Invaders From The Infinite, John W. Campbell · 1932

An electrically enhanced instrument that sees far more distant detail than ordinary optical scopes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A scope that sees much farther than glass alone serves astronomers and watchers, a narrow group.

Who is paid. I assume observatories and armed forces are the main buyers, and since others could build one, the firms that already supply such instruments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of 3D Tank Display: A clear cube renders images with true depth so viewers see positions in three dimensions from any side.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

3D Tank Display

Triplanetary, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1934

A clear cube renders images with true depth so viewers see positions in three dimensions from any side.

built in the 1960s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A display with true depth seen from any side, working as the story promises and not as those built so far, would replace flat screens in homes and workplaces, which is an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Assuming it is sold as a general display and not only for ship plotting as in the story, households buy it and the existing screen makers, who own the factories and brands, collect because the design can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Aliens Speak English: Beings from another world turn out to talk in our own language, for a reason the plot explains.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Aliens Speak English

The Mines of Haldar, Maurice G. Hugi · 1934

Beings from another world turn out to talk in our own language, for a reason the plot explains.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a turn of the plot about how aliens talk, not a thing anyone could buy.

Who is paid. Nothing is made or sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Black Cube Teaching Machine: A box plays back stored pictures that instruct its viewer, delivering lessons without a live teacher.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Black Cube Teaching Machine

The Flame From Mars, Jack Williamson · 1934

A box plays back stored pictures that instruct its viewer, delivering lessons without a live teacher.

already existed before the story (the 1920s)

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Lessons that play without a live teacher would cut the cost of schooling and training.

Who is paid. Assuming families and learners buy the lessons themselves, and since a school subject belongs to nobody the way a novel or a song does and no certificate is described, anyone can record and sell lessons, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Communicator: A pocket-sized unit lets people talk with each other across great distances.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Communicator

Skylark of Valeron, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1934

A pocket-sized unit lets people talk with each other across great distances.

built in the 1970s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A pocket device for talking across great distances changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. People buy one each, handsets are easy to copy, and the firms that own the networks the calls travel over collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ingestible Communication Capsule: A tiny radio swallowed like a pill lets its carrier talk and listen without any visible device.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ingestible Communication Capsule

Triplanetary, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1934

A tiny radio swallowed like a pill lets its carrier talk and listen without any visible device.

built in the 2010s, about 80 years after it was imagined

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A hidden radio that is swallowed serves a niche of secret work; a pill passes through, so it is not an everyday phone.

Who is paid. I assumed spies and soldiers use it, so a government pays its usual suppliers of such equipment.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ultrawave: A signalling method sends messages faster than light, allowing instant conversation across vast distances.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ultrawave

Triplanetary, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1934

A signalling method sends messages faster than light, allowing instant conversation across vast distances.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Talking across the stars with no delay would be the backbone of trade and rule between worlds, judged as if it worked, though it serves only those who live or work out there.

Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations and not a pocket set, firms and governments with far-flung operations pay for the traffic, others could build the device once it is known to work, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Magic Spectacles: Eyewear that immerses the wearer in a convincing artificial world of sights and sensations.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magic Spectacles

Pygmalion's Spectacles, Stanley G. Weinbaum · 1935

Eyewear that immerses the wearer in a convincing artificial world of sights and sensations.

built in the 2010s, about 80 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An artificial world that feels real would be worth an entertainment industry of its own; I judged the full promise, which is larger than anything sold so far.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the machine can be copied once shown, so those who already own the stories and worlds people want to enter collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Audiphone: A radio link letting people in spacesuits talk to each other where there is no air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Audiphone

Blood of the Moon, Ray Cummings · 1936

A radio link letting people in spacesuits talk to each other where there is no air.

built in the 1960s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Radio between people in spacesuits is essential to the few who work in such suits and of no use to anyone else.

Who is paid. Assuming the suits are worn by space crews, a government pays, and the firms that already supply suits and radios to such programmes collect because the radio is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Desktop Flat Panel Intercom: A small screen on a desk for video calls between rooms or offices.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Desktop Flat Panel Intercom

The Shape of Things To Come, H.G. Wells · 1936

A small screen on a desk for video calls between rooms or offices.

built in the 1960s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Video calls between rooms or offices save some walking and some meetings.

Who is paid. Firms buy it for their offices, a screen and camera can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Giant Flat Panel Display: A huge thin wall screen showing live broadcast pictures to an audience.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Giant Flat Panel Display

The Shape of Things To Come, H.G. Wells · 1936

A huge thin wall screen showing live broadcast pictures to an audience.

built in the 2000s, about 70 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A huge thin screen showing live pictures is the big screen of halls, stadiums and public squares, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Because this one faces an audience, venues and not households buy it, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Transparent Flat Panel Display: A large thin screen that can turn see-through.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Transparent Flat Panel Display

The Shape of Things To Come, H.G. Wells · 1936

A large thin screen that can turn see-through.

built in the 2010s, about 80 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A large thin screen is the screen at the centre of most homes and offices, an industry of its own, and turning see-through is a feature of it.

Who is paid. Assuming it hangs in homes as well as shops and offices, people buy it, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Wireless Wrist Intercom: A radio device strapped to the arm for talking with others at a distance.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wireless Wrist Intercom

The Shape of Things To Come, H.G. Wells · 1936

A radio device strapped to the arm for talking with others at a distance.

built in the 2010s, about 80 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Judged on the promise of a phone worn on the wrist as the phone people carry everywhere, which changes how most people live and work, though the real ones arrived after the pocket phone and stayed an extra.

Who is paid. People buy one each, a wrist set is as easy to copy as a pocket handset, and the firms that own the networks the calls travel over collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Multiple Sample Voice: Blending recordings of many speakers into one even synthetic voice.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Multiple Sample Voice

The Shining One, Nat Schachner · 1937

Blending recordings of many speakers into one even synthetic voice.

built in the 1970s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. One even voice blended from many is a tool for announcements, smaller than making whole songs by machine.

Who is paid. Broadcasters and firms buy it and many could make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sono-Induction Coils: A loudspeaker network using coils laid underground to address crowds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sono-Induction Coils

The Shining One, Nat Schachner · 1937

A loudspeaker network using coils laid underground to address crowds.

already existed before the story (the 1920s)

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A fixed loudspeaker system for speaking to people in public places is an ordinary piece of public equipment.

Who is paid. The authorities pay to install it in streets and squares, and since it is easy to make, the firms that already hold such supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ultra-Communicator: A system that relays spoken orders to chosen recipients only.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ultra-Communicator

Galactic Patrol, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1937

A system that relays spoken orders to chosen recipients only.

built in the 1990s, about 60 years after it was imagined

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Sending spoken orders only to chosen listeners is a command tool for fleets and forces, a narrow use.

Who is paid. I assume armed forces are the buyers, and since the method can be copied, the firms that already hold their radio contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Automatic Commercial Deletion: A gadget that spots advertisements and silences the television until they end.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automatic Commercial Deletion

Satellite Five, Arthur K. Barnes · 1938

A gadget that spots advertisements and silences the television until they end.

built in the 2000s, about 70 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Silencing advertisements is a pleasant convenience for viewers and nothing more.

Who is paid. Viewers buy the gadget and it is easy for any electronics firm to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Cosmic Teletype: Sends printed messages across vast distances by routing them through a higher dimension.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cosmic Teletype

Cosmic Teletype, Carl Jacobi · 1938

Sends printed messages across vast distances by routing them through a higher dimension.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Assuming people live across vast distances, printed messages that cross them at once would be the backbone of trade and rule, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations and not a pocket set, firms and governments with far-flung operations pay for the traffic, others could build the device once it is known to work, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Etherphone Receiver: A small ear device that picks up encrypted radio messages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Etherphone Receiver

Hotel Cosmos, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1938

A small ear device that picks up encrypted radio messages.

already existed before the story (the 1920s)

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A small ear device for coded radio messages is a convenience for those who need private messages.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves and tiny ear radios are simple for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Gogglelike Televisors: Screens mounted in eyewear just in front of the viewer's eyes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gogglelike Televisors

The Robot and the Lady, Manly Wade Wellman · 1938

Screens mounted in eyewear just in front of the viewer's eyes.

built in the 2010s, about 80 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Screens worn just in front of the eyes, working as promised, would take over much of what people now do on handheld screens.

Who is paid. People buy them for themselves, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Selective Television: Lets a viewer call up a live picture of any chosen place on Earth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Selective Television

The Challenge of Atlantis, Arthur J. Burks · 1938

Lets a viewer call up a live picture of any chosen place on Earth.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Calling up a live view of any place would be worth an industry for travel, news and watching over things.

Who is paid. Assuming households buy the viewer and it needs no network of cameras that a single firm owns, others could build it once it is known to work, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Visi-Screen: A screen that shows moving pictures and information.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Visi-Screen

Satellite Five, Arthur K. Barnes · 1938

A screen that shows moving pictures and information.

already existed before the story (the 1920s)

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A thin screen for the wall is the form nearly every display now takes and is an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Automatic Delivery Library: A library system that hands over any requested book almost instantly.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automatic Delivery Library

The Lord of Tranerica, Stanton A. Coblentz · 1939

A library system that hands over any requested book almost instantly.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Any book in your hands almost at once would change what libraries and bookshops cost to run.

Who is paid. Assuming readers pay by fee or subscription, the delivery machinery can be copied, so the publishers who own the right to the books collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Orbiting Casino Advertising Sign: A giant advertisement placed in orbit where it can be seen across space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Orbiting Casino Advertising Sign

One Against The Legion, Jack Williamson · 1939

A giant advertisement placed in orbit where it can be seen across space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sign in the sky is one more place to advertise, seen by those beneath it.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and assuming the sky stays open to whoever can put a sign there, as with messages thrown on the clouds, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Polyceltron Iconoscope Televisor: Carry-around gear that films and records sound for live news broadcasts from the scene.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Polyceltron Iconoscope Televisor

Newscast, Harl Vincent · 1939

Carry-around gear that films and records sound for live news broadcasts from the scene.

built in the 1930s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Portable recording and sending kit is a useful tool for one trade.

Who is paid. News firms buy it and many makers can build such kit, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Radio-Facsimile Receiver: A home machine that receives a newspaper over the air and prints it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Radio-Facsimile Receiver

Ben Gleed, King of Speed, Don Wilcox · 1939

A home machine that receives a newspaper over the air and prints it.

built in the 1960s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Getting the news at the moment and place you choose is a convenience over waiting for the paper.

Who is paid. Readers pay; the machine is easy to copy, so the news firms that already gather the reports collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Stereoscopic Vernier and Cube: Equipment for taking three-dimensional photographs.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stereoscopic Vernier and Cube

Sinister Barrier, Eric Frank Russell · 1939

Equipment for taking three-dimensional photographs.

built in the 1980s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Taking photographs with depth is a pleasure for hobbyists and a tool for a few trades.

Who is paid. Keen photographers buy it, and since many can make such a camera, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Telescribe: Automatically writes down incoming emergency calls and other radio reports.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telescribe

A Question of Salvage, Malcolm Jameson · 1939

Automatically writes down incoming emergency calls and other radio reports.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Writing down incoming radio calls by machine saves a clerk in a control room, which is a narrow saving.

Who is paid. Ship and rescue operators buy it, and since many can make such a recorder, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ultraset (Ultrawave Set): A radio that sends signals faster than light.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ultraset (Ultrawave Set)

Habit, Lester del Rey · 1939

A radio that sends signals faster than light.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Talking across the stars with no delay would be the backbone of trade and rule between worlds, judged as if it worked, though it serves only those who live or work out there.

Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations and not a pocket set, firms and governments with far-flung operations pay for the traffic, others could build the device once it is known to work, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Visiwave: Sends messages across interstellar distances with no delay at all.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Visiwave

One Against The Legion, Jack Williamson · 1939

Sends messages across interstellar distances with no delay at all.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Talking across the stars with no delay would be the backbone of trade and rule between worlds, judged as if it worked, though it serves only those who live or work out there.

Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations and not a pocket set, firms and governments with far-flung operations pay for the traffic, others could build the device once it is known to work, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Bifocal TV Screen Lenses: Eyeglasses whose lower half doubles as a small video display.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bifocal TV Screen Lenses

Doom Over Venus, Edmond Hamilton · 1940

Eyeglasses whose lower half doubles as a small video display.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A screen in your glasses, working as promised, would take over much of what people now do on handheld screens.

Who is paid. People buy them for themselves, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hush-a-Phone: A mouthpiece attachment for phones that keeps a caller's voice private and cuts room noise.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hush-a-Phone

The Roads Must Roll, Robert Heinlein · 1940

A mouthpiece attachment for phones that keeps a caller's voice private and cuts room noise.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A mouthpiece that keeps a call private and cuts room noise is a minor convenience.

Who is paid. Callers buy it as an add-on and it is a simple shaped part anyone can make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pocket-Caller: A small private phone that fits in a pocket.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pocket-Caller

The Worlds of Tomorrow, Manly Wade Wellman · 1940

A small private phone that fits in a pocket.

built in the 1970s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A phone carried everywhere changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; handsets are easy to copy, so the firms that own the networks and airwaves collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Soft Speaker: A speaker that aims sound in a narrow beam at one listener.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Soft Speaker

The Exhalted, L. Sprague de Camp · 1940

A speaker that aims sound in a narrow beam at one listener.

built in the 2000s, about 60 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Sound aimed at one listener is useful in shops, museums and cars but few people need it.

Who is paid. Shops and exhibit makers buy it, and since many can make such a speaker, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Synthetic Voice: Machine-made speech that sounds like a person talking.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Synthetic Voice

The Amazon Fights Again, Thornton Ayre · 1940

Machine-made speech that sounds like a person talking.

built in the 1970s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that speak like people let firms answer calls, read text aloud and voice their products without hiring speakers.

Who is paid. Firms buy it to build into their own products and services, and since many can make a talking machine, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Trumpaphone: A blaring musical horn with a harsh metallic sound.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Trumpaphone

The Voyage That Lasted 600 Years, Don Wilcox · 1940

A blaring musical horn with a harsh metallic sound.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A loud, harsh horn is one more musical instrument for the few who want it.

Who is paid. Players buy it, and since any instrument maker could build one, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Voder: A machine that generates spoken words without any human voice.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Voder

Exit From Asteroid 60, D.L. James · 1940

A machine that generates spoken words without any human voice.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that speak like people let firms answer calls, read text aloud and voice their products without hiring speakers.

Who is paid. Firms buy it to build into their own products and services, and since many can make a talking machine, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Bone Conduction Receiver: A hidden radio earpiece that sends sound through the skull bones.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bone Conduction Receiver

Sixth Column, Anson MacDonald · 1941

A hidden radio earpiece that sends sound through the skull bones.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Hearing through the skull bones suits a few uses, here a hidden earpiece, but for most it is one more kind of earphone.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves and the vibrating part is simple to make, so many firms sell it and none keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Chatterbox' News-Receptor: A home receiver that plays news broadcasts with no filtering of what comes through.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chatterbox' News-Receptor

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

A home receiver that plays news broadcasts with no filtering of what comes through.

built in the 2010s, about 70 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A news receiver in every home is the home end of broadcasting, which is an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Unlike the broadcasting itself, this is the set in the home, which households buy and many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Identification Beacon: A radio signal that tells others which craft is in orbit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Identification Beacon

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

A radio signal that tells others which craft is in orbit.

already existed before the story (the 1930s)

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A signal that says which craft is which is a safety fitting, needed but minor.

Who is paid. Craft operators buy it because rules require it, and it is a simple radio many firms make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Newsbox (News-Receptor): A viewer that scans broadcast programs and pulls up reports mentioning chosen keywords.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Newsbox (News-Receptor)

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

A viewer that scans broadcast programs and pulls up reports mentioning chosen keywords.

built in the 2010s, about 70 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A home receiver that picks out the reports its owner cares about is the home end of broadcasting, which is an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Unlike a tailored news service, this is the set in the home, which households buy and many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Music: Songs both composed and played by machines with no human performers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Music

The Robot God, Ray Cummings · 1941

Songs both composed and played by machines with no human performers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Songs written and played with no human performers remove the main cost of the music trade.

Who is paid. Listeners pay, and unlike a machine voice singing songs someone owns, once machines can write the songs as well anyone can run them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Wall Screen: A video display as big as a wall, or built in as the wall itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wall Screen

Star of Dreams, Jack Williamson · 1941

A video display as big as a wall, or built in as the wall itself.

built in the 2000s, about 60 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A thin screen for the wall is the form nearly every display now takes and is an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Interplanetary Communications Center: A central relay network that routes messages among settlements throughout the solar system.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Interplanetary Communications Center

QRM - Interplanetary, George O. Smith · 1942

A central relay network that routes messages among settlements throughout the solar system.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Assuming the planets are settled as in the story, a message link among them carries all their trade and news, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Assuming firms and settlers pay by the message, nothing described stops a rival from building its own stations, so the carriers and fleet owners who already hold the home networks where every message starts and ends, and the ships to place and tend stations, collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of News Roundup: Shows short summaries of current stories and lets you open any one for more.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

News Roundup

Beyond This Horizon, Robert Heinlein · 1942

Shows short summaries of current stories and lets you open any one for more.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Short summaries that open into the full story are a handier way to read the news people already get.

Who is paid. Readers pay, the layout is easy to copy, and the news firms that already gather the reports collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Telaudiogram: A method for sending voice and text messages across distances between planets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telaudiogram

The World With A Thousand Moons, Edmond Hamilton · 1942

A method for sending voice and text messages across distances between planets.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Carrying messages between ships and worlds would be a telegraph industry for a settled solar system, assuming there are many people out there to serve.

Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations, ship owners and firms trading between worlds pay for the traffic, the link is ordinary radio that others could build, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Venus Equilateral Relay Station: A hollowed space rock turned into a hub that passes messages among planets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Venus Equilateral Relay Station

QRM - Interplanetary, George O. Smith · 1942

A hollowed space rock turned into a hub that passes messages among planets.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A hub that passes messages among the planets would be the telegraph exchange of a settled solar system, assuming many people live out there.

Who is paid. Firms trading between worlds pay by the message, the description does not say the spot is the only one that would serve, so a rival hub could be built, and the carriers and fleet owners who already hold the home networks and the ships to tend a station collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Filmag: A periodical published as moving pictures rather than print.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Filmag

Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943

A periodical published as moving pictures rather than print.

built in the 2000s, about 60 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A magazine in moving pictures is one more form of entertainment among many.

Who is paid. Viewers buy or subscribe, anyone can film one, and the publishers who already have the readers and the names collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Micro Book (Microbook): A tiny compact volume, perhaps an early electronic reader.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Micro Book (Microbook)

One Way Trip, Anthony Boucher · 1943

A tiny compact volume, perhaps an early electronic reader.

built in the 1990s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Assuming it is an electronic reader and not merely a very small printed book, it changes what it costs to publish, ship and store books.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the device is easy to copy, so the publishers and shops that already own the books and papers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Polyfrequency Neutralizer: A device that cancels projected three-dimensional images, making them vanish.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Polyfrequency Neutralizer

Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943

A device that cancels projected three-dimensional images, making them vanish.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A device that wipes out projected images is a niche tool against trickery.

Who is paid. I assumed police and armies want it, so a government pays its usual equipment suppliers.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Solidograph: Beams solid-looking three-dimensional pictures to far-off places.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solidograph

Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943

Beams solid-looking three-dimensional pictures to far-off places.

built in the 2010s, about 70 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Sending a lifelike solid picture of a person or place far away would be worth an industry of its own; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.

Who is paid. Households pay for the sets and the service, and as the projector could be copied, the firms that already own the networks and factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Telesolidograph: Sends lifelike three-dimensional projections across very long ranges.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telesolidograph

Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943

Sends lifelike three-dimensional projections across very long ranges.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Sending a lifelike solid picture of a person or place far away would be worth an industry of its own; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.

Who is paid. Households pay for the sets and the service, and as the projector could be copied, the firms that already own the networks and factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Viewscreen Pentagon: A central five-sided screen ringed by square monitors fixed along its edges.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Viewscreen Pentagon

Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943

A central five-sided screen ringed by square monitors fixed along its edges.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. One odd arrangement of screens round a many-sided centre is a control-room fitting, not a new kind of thing.

Who is paid. Operators of ships or control rooms buy it, and since it is only ordinary screens set in a frame, the firms that already own the screen factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Suit-Radio: A radio built into a spacesuit so two people working outside can talk.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Suit-Radio

The Long Way, George O. Smith · 1944

A radio built into a spacesuit so two people working outside can talk.

built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A radio in a spacesuit is a needed part for the few people who work outside a ship.

Who is paid. Space agencies pay for it as part of the suit, and since it is an ordinary radio, the firms that already hold the suit contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sleeve Communicator: Controls for gadgets woven into the cuff of a garment.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sleeve Communicator

First Contact, Murray Leinster · 1945

Controls for gadgets woven into the cuff of a garment.

built in 1983, 38 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Controls woven into a cuff are a convenience.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it and any clothing or gadget maker could add them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Vision Plate: A thin flat screen for showing pictures and video.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vision Plate

First Contact, Murray Leinster · 1945

A thin flat screen for showing pictures and video.

built in 1964, 19 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A thin screen for the wall is the form nearly every display now takes and is an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spotcast: A new medium that sends one message out to many receivers at once.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spotcast

The Little Things, Henry Kuttner · 1946

A new medium that sends one message out to many receivers at once.

built since, date unclear

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A new way to send one message to many receivers at once is a broadcasting industry of its own.

Who is paid. Advertisers and news firms pay to reach the crowd, the description names no scarce channels and others could copy the method, so the firms that already own the audiences, the programmes and the stations collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Portable Telephone: A phone small enough to carry around and use away from any wire.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Portable Telephone

Space Cadet, Robert Heinlein · 1948

A phone small enough to carry around and use away from any wire.

built in the 1970s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A phone carried everywhere changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; handsets are easy to copy, so the firms that own the networks and airwaves collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Solidograph-Projector: A projector that casts a solid-looking image of a thing or person into the room.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solidograph-Projector

Police Operation, H. Beam Piper · 1948

A projector that casts a solid-looking image of a thing or person into the room.

built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A picture with true depth standing in the room would replace the flat screen and be worth an industry of its own; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.

Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Telepath Transmitter: A long-range sender that carries messages mind to mind.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telepath Transmitter

Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949

A long-range sender that carries messages mind to mind.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Sending messages straight from mind to mind over long range, judged as if it worked, would be a new kind of phone service worth an industry.

Who is paid. I assume ordinary people would pay for it like a phone, and once one sender had been built others could copy it, so the firms that already own the networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Stratovideo (Television Plane): Aircraft circling high overhead as flying studios that relay television across a wide area.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stratovideo (Television Plane)

The Morning of the Day They Did It, E.B. White · 1950

Aircraft circling high overhead as flying studios that relay television across a wide area.

already existed before the story (the 1940s)

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Aircraft that relay television fill gaps where towers do not reach, which is a narrow job.

Who is paid. Broadcasters pay for the relay, and since any operator with aircraft could do it, the firms that already own fleets and stations collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Audio Relay: A tiny radio implanted near the ear that relays calls and also serves as an alarm clock.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Audio Relay

The Puppet Masters, Robert Heinlein · 1951

A tiny radio implanted near the ear that relays calls and also serves as an alarm clock.

built in the 1960s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A radio by the ear is a convenience on top of the phone a person already has.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves and, even though this one is implanted, tiny ear radios are simple for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Metal Foil Advertisement: Promotional leaflets printed on thin sheets of metal.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Metal Foil Advertisement

The Illustrated Man, Ray Bradbury · 1951

Promotional leaflets printed on thin sheets of metal.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An eye-catching printing trick is a small edge for an advert.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay and any printer can do it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Odorophonics: A machine that plays back convincing smells on demand.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Odorophonics

The Illustrated Man, Ray Bradbury · 1951

A machine that plays back convincing smells on demand.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Smells on cue add a novelty to shows and homes.

Who is paid. I assumed households and showmen buy it; once shown, many firms could make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Telebook: Reading material delivered as text on a screen rather than on paper.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telebook

The Fun They Had, Isaac Asimov · 1951

Reading material delivered as text on a screen rather than on paper.

built in the 2000s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Reading on a screen instead of paper changes what it costs to publish and carry books.

Who is paid. Readers pay for each book, and since any screen can show text, the publishers and shops that already hold the books readers want collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Teledar: Television whose pictures appear to have depth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Teledar

The Jester, William Tenn · 1951

Television whose pictures appear to have depth.

built in the 2000s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Broadcasts with real depth would be the next kind of television set and worth an industry, though the real thing has so far sold poorly against the promise.

Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ultrawave Relay or Hyperwave Relay: A network that sends messages between stars with no delay.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ultrawave Relay or Hyperwave Relay

Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1951

A network that sends messages between stars with no delay.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Talking across the stars with no delay would be the backbone of trade and rule between worlds, judged as if it worked, though it serves only those who live or work out there.

Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations and not a pocket set, firms and governments with far-flung operations pay for the traffic, others could build the device once it is known to work, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Airplane Window Ads: Aircraft windows that double as screens showing commercials to passengers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Airplane Window Ads

The Space Merchants, Frederik Pohl (w/CM Kornbluth · 1952

Aircraft windows that double as screens showing commercials to passengers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Advertisements on aircraft windows are one more place to show commercials to a captive audience.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay, the screens are easy to make, and the airlines that own the planes and the passengers' attention collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Compulsive Subsonics: Advertising that works on buyers below conscious awareness to make them crave products.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Compulsive Subsonics

The Space Merchants, Frederik Pohl (w/CM Kornbluth · 1952

Advertising that works on buyers below conscious awareness to make them crave products.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Advertising that truly made people crave a product would be worth a great deal to every seller of goods.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and once the trick is known any agency could use it, so no seller keeps much, though a government might well forbid it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Light Absorbing/Emitting Ink: Glow-in-the-dark printing ink that stores light and flashes it back to catch shoppers' eyes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Light Absorbing/Emitting Ink

Gravy Planet, Frederik Pohl (w/CM Kornbluth · 1952

Glow-in-the-dark printing ink that stores light and flashes it back to catch shoppers' eyes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An eye-catching printing trick is a small edge for an advert.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay and any printer can do it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pocket Projector: A small handheld gadget that plays back films and recordings.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pocket Projector

Foundation and Empire, Isaac Asimov · 1952

A small handheld gadget that plays back films and recordings.

built in the 2010s, about 60 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A personal screen for watching films and pictures anywhere is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; many firms can make the device, so those who already own the films and the ways to deliver them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Recorded Books: Books stored in electronic form for playback or reading on a device.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Recorded Books

Foundation and Empire, Isaac Asimov · 1952

Books stored in electronic form for playback or reading on a device.

already existed before the story (the 1930s)

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Books kept in electronic form instead of on paper change what it costs to publish, ship and store them.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the device is easy to copy, so the publishers and shops that already own the books and papers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Retinal Projection: Beaming commercials straight onto the back of a viewer's eye.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Retinal Projection

The Space Merchants, Frederik Pohl (w/CM Kornbluth · 1952

Beaming commercials straight onto the back of a viewer's eye.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Adverts thrown into people's path are one more way to advertise, not a new need.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay, the projector is easy to copy and it can be aimed at anyone passing, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Buy-Me-Discs: Small tags on shop goods that pick up broadcast pitches and play them to shoppers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Buy-Me-Discs

Captive Audience, Anne Warren Griffith · 1953

Small tags on shop goods that pick up broadcast pitches and play them to shoppers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Tags that play sales pitches from the shelf are one more way to advertise.

Who is paid. Brands pay to tag their own goods, and since the tag is the thing sold and any electronics workshop could make it, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Control Screen: A monitoring and command screen used by visiting aliens.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Control Screen

Childhood's End, Arthur C. Clarke · 1953

A monitoring and command screen used by visiting aliens.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A screen for watching and directing things is an ordinary piece of working equipment.

Who is paid. Organisations buy such screens for their control rooms, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Green Bullet: A tiny two-way radio tucked in the ear so the wearer can hear and speak to a distant partner.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Green Bullet

Fahrenheit 451, Ray Bradbury · 1953

A tiny two-way radio tucked in the ear so the wearer can hear and speak to a distant partner.

built in the 1950s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A radio in the ear for talking and listening is a convenience on top of the phone a person already has.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves and tiny ear radios are simple for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Homeostatic Newspaper: A self-running news outlet that gathers, writes and publishes stories with no human staff.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Homeostatic Newspaper

If There Were No Benny Cemoli, Philip K. Dick · 1953

A self-running news outlet that gathers, writes and publishes stories with no human staff.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. News gathered, written and published with no human staff removes the main cost of the news trade.

Who is paid. Readers buy or subscribe, and once machines can gather and write the news anyone can run one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Master Ventriloquism Corporation (MV): A single central firm that pipes spoken commercials out through every product on the market.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Master Ventriloquism Corporation (MV)

Captive Audience, Anne Warren Griffith · 1953

A single central firm that pipes spoken commercials out through every product on the market.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Commercials spoken by the goods themselves are another place to advertise, like talking tags on shop goods.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and although the story has a single firm running it, nothing described stops a rival, and the speaking part is simple for any workshop to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Message Tree: A living tree rooted in a crystal cliff that relays messages around an alien planet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Message Tree

A Case of Conscience, James Blish · 1953

A living tree rooted in a crystal cliff that relays messages around an alien planet.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A living tree on an alien world is a natural thing, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ovoid 3D Galactic Model: An egg-shaped handheld display showing the galaxy in depth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ovoid 3D Galactic Model

Second Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1953

An egg-shaped handheld display showing the galaxy in depth.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A handheld model of the galaxy in depth serves a single purpose for navigators and teachers, unlike a general display with depth.

Who is paid. Assuming ships and schools buy it, the design can be copied, and the display makers with the factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Panoramic Viewer: A viewer that watches faraway places and projects them as solid-looking scenes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Panoramic Viewer

Childhood's End, Arthur C. Clarke · 1953

A viewer that watches faraway places and projects them as solid-looking scenes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Calling up a live view of any place would be worth an industry for travel, news and watching over things.

Who is paid. Assuming households buy the viewer and it needs no network of cameras that a single firm owns, others could build it once it is known to work, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Permanent Skywriting: Messages written across the sky that hold their shape instead of drifting apart.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Permanent Skywriting

Soap Opera, Alan Nelson · 1953

Messages written across the sky that hold their shape instead of drifting apart.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sign in the sky is one more place to advertise, seen by those beneath it.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and assuming the sky stays open to whoever can put a sign there, as with messages thrown on the clouds, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Pocket Phone (or pocketphone): A wireless phone small enough to carry in a pocket.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pocket Phone (or pocketphone)

Assignment in Eternity, Robert Heinlein · 1953

A wireless phone small enough to carry in a pocket.

built in the 1980s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A phone carried everywhere changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; handsets are easy to copy, so the firms that own the networks and airwaves collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Seashell Radio (Thimble Radios): Miniature radios worn inside the ear that feed a constant stream of sound and talk to the listener.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Seashell Radio (Thimble Radios)

Fahrenheit 451, Ray Bradbury · 1953

Miniature radios worn inside the ear that feed a constant stream of sound and talk to the listener.

built in the 1980s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Sound fed straight into the ear is a convenience over an ordinary radio or speaker.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it and many firms can make tiny ear pieces, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Speedtalk: An invented language packing each word into one syllable so speakers exchange ideas far faster.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Speedtalk

Assignment in Eternity, Robert Heinlein · 1953

An invented language packing each word into one syllable so speakers exchange ideas far faster.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A language that lets its speakers trade ideas faster helps only the few who take the trouble to learn it.

Who is paid. Assuming learners pay to be taught it, as an army would pay for a battle language, a language cannot be owned and any teacher could offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Spot-Wavex Scrambler: A gadget that makes broadcast hosts appear to address each viewer by name.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spot-Wavex Scrambler

Fahrenheit 451, Ray Bradbury · 1953

A gadget that makes broadcast hosts appear to address each viewer by name.

built in the 2000s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Hearing a host say your name is a pleasing trick added to a set people already own.

Who is paid. Viewers buy the gadget for themselves, and since it is a simple add-on many could make, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Synthony: A concert played entirely by machine musicians.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Synthony

The Music Master, F.L. Wallace · 1953

A concert played entirely by machine musicians.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A concert played by machines is a show some people would pay to hear, one kind among many.

Who is paid. Concert-goers buy tickets, and since anyone with the machines could stage such a show, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Visicastor: A presenter who fronts televised news or shows.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Visicastor

Second Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1953

A presenter who fronts televised news or shows.

built in the 1950s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Presenting is a trade whose work is sold, a step below the broadcasts it serves.

Who is paid. Broadcasters pay presenters for their labour, and anyone with the knack can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of TBR (Talk Between Robots) Circuit: A dedicated channel that lets machines exchange messages directly with one another.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

TBR (Talk Between Robots) Circuit

The Midas Plague, Frederik Pohl · 1954

A dedicated channel that lets machines exchange messages directly with one another.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Letting machines pass messages straight to each other lets factories and services run with far less human relaying.

Who is paid. Firms buy it built into their machines, and since a shared channel only works if every maker can use it, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Trace Web: A pocket-sized unit that links its holder into a wider network and can call parts of it into being.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Trace Web

Souvenir, Philip K. Dick · 1954

A pocket-sized unit that links its holder into a wider network and can call parts of it into being.

built in the 2000s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A pocket unit that links its holder to everyone else on the network changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. Assuming it is a pocket phone and the power to call parts of the network into being is a feature of it, people buy one each, handsets are easy to copy, and the firms that own the networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Visual Ad: Advertising that pushes itself straight into a viewer's mind whether they want it or not.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Visual Ad

Sales Pitch, Philip K. Dick · 1954

Advertising that pushes itself straight into a viewer's mind whether they want it or not.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Advertising that reaches straight into a viewer's mind would be worth a great deal to every seller of goods, though the story's law forbids it.

Who is paid. Advertisers who ignore the ban pay, and once the trick is known any agency could use it and the law pursues whoever does, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Web (Data Network): A network that links sources of information so they can be shared widely.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Web (Data Network)

Souvenir, Philip K. Dick · 1954

A network that links sources of information so they can be shared widely.

built in the 1990s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A shared network that lets anyone reach knowledge and one another from anywhere changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for access, and since no one firm can keep others off an open network, the firms that already own the lines and the big gathering places on it collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Dashboard TV: A television screen built into a car's instrument panel.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dashboard TV

The Chromium Fence, Philip K. Dick · 1955

A television screen built into a car's instrument panel.

built in the 1990s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A screen in the dashboard is a feature of a car.

Who is paid. Drivers pay for it as part of the car, any maker can fit one, and the car makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mechanical Newsmachine: A machine that dispenses breaking news reports right where you are.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mechanical Newsmachine

Foster, You're Dead, Philip K. Dick · 1955

A machine that dispenses breaking news reports right where you are.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Getting the news at the moment and place you choose is a convenience over waiting for the paper.

Who is paid. Readers pay; the machine is easy to copy, so the news firms that already gather the reports collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Neck-Phone: A telephone implanted in the neck so the user can talk hands-free at all times.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Neck-Phone

The Chromium Fence, Philip K. Dick · 1955

A telephone implanted in the neck so the user can talk hands-free at all times.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A phone inside the body that is never lost or left behind would be worth an industry, though surgery would put many people off.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, the device can be copied, and the firms that own the phone networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Pocket Receiver: A handheld device that keeps its owner connected to information and people wherever they go.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pocket Receiver

The Magellanic Cloud, Stanislaw Lem · 1955

A handheld device that keeps its owner connected to information and people wherever they go.

built in the 1990s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A phone carried everywhere changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; handsets are easy to copy, so the firms that own the networks and airwaves collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Trion Library: A vast shared store of knowledge that anyone can query from afar, much like the online world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Trion Library

The Magellanic Cloud, Stanislaw Lem · 1955

A vast shared store of knowledge that anyone can query from afar, much like the online world.

built in the 1990s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A shared network that lets anyone reach knowledge and one another from anywhere changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for access, and since no one firm can keep others off an open network, the firms that already own the lines and the big gathering places on it collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Maximum-security Booth: A private cubicle for taking encrypted calls that carry three-dimensional pictures of the caller.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Maximum-security Booth

Double Star, Robert Heinlein · 1956

A private cubicle for taking encrypted calls that carry three-dimensional pictures of the caller.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A secure booth for solid-looking calls is a niche for officials and firms with secrets.

Who is paid. I assumed firms and offices buy it; it can be copied, so the firms that own the phone networks collect, as with other picture calls.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Saga: An immersive entertainment that lets the user live inside famous adventures from history.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Saga

The City and the Stars, Arthur C. Clarke · 1956

An immersive entertainment that lets the user live inside famous adventures from history.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An artificial world that feels real would be worth an entertainment industry of its own; I judged the full promise, which is larger than anything sold so far.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the machine can be copied once shown, so those who already own the stories and worlds people want to enter collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Solido: A projector that creates a lifelike image with full three-dimensional depth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solido

Chance of a Lifetime, Milton Lesser · 1956

A projector that creates a lifelike image with full three-dimensional depth.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A picture with true depth standing in the room would replace the flat screen and be worth an industry of its own; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.

Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Whisper Line: A hidden acoustic path that lets isolated prisoners talk to one another across distance.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Whisper Line

The Stars My Destination, Alfred Bester · 1956

A hidden acoustic path that lets isolated prisoners talk to one another across distance.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A chance quirk of a prison's walls that lets inmates whisper to each other is not a product anyone sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so there is no payer and no seller.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Dirac Transmitter (also Tranceiver or Communicator): A device for sending messages instantly to anywhere in the galaxy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dirac Transmitter (also Tranceiver or Communicator)

Cities in Flight, James Blish · 1957

A device for sending messages instantly to anywhere in the galaxy.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Assuming people live around many stars, instant messages between them would be the backbone of all trade and rule across space, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations and not a pocket set, firms and governments with far-flung operations pay for the traffic, others could build the device once it is known to work, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Lunar Advertisement: A commercial message laid out on the Moon large enough to be read from Earth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lunar Advertisement

Watch This Space, Arthur C. Clarke · 1957

A commercial message laid out on the Moon large enough to be read from Earth.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sign on the Moon is still a single place to show an advertisement, though it is the most widely seen of all.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and unlike the open sky there is only the Moon's face to write on, so assuming governments share it out, the few allowed to mark it can charge for it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Flexible Wall Sheet Display: A big transparent panel on the wall that shows information.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flexible Wall Sheet Display

The Mechanical Monarch, E.C. Tubb · 1958

A big transparent panel on the wall that shows information.

built in the 2010s, about 60 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A big thin panel on the wall is the screen at the centre of most homes and offices, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Assuming it hangs in homes as well as offices, people buy it, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tik-Talker: A way of garbling spoken words so a message can be sent in secret code.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tik-Talker

The Sign of the Tiger, Alan Nourse (w/Meyer · 1958

A way of garbling spoken words so a message can be sent in secret code.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping a call private matters to a narrow set of users with secrets worth guarding.

Who is paid. Firms with secrets buy it, and since the method of garbling speech is well known and easy to copy, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Memo-Voice: Paper notes that speak their contents out loud.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Memo-Voice

War Game, Philip K. Dick · 1959

Paper notes that speak their contents out loud.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A note that speaks its contents is a novelty for offices.

Who is paid. I assumed offices buy it; many firms could make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Domed Mapviewer: A lit, dome-shaped screen that shows maps.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Domed Mapviewer

Dorsai!, Gordon R. Dickson · 1960

A lit, dome-shaped screen that shows maps.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lit dome that shows maps is a piece of planning equipment for a few users.

Who is paid. Assuming it is used by military staff as in the story, a government pays, and the firms that already supply armies with such equipment collect because it is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Fluid Metal Letters: A smooth metallic surface that forms written words on itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fluid Metal Letters

Vulcan's Hammer, Philip K. Dick · 1960

A smooth metallic surface that forms written words on itself.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A metal surface that forms words on itself is a sign or noticeboard of an unusual kind.

Who is paid. Offices would buy it as a display, and ordinary screens that many firms make do the same job, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Dimensino: An alien entertainment centre offering total sensory immersion.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dimensino

Time is the Simplest Thing, Clifford Simak · 1961

An alien entertainment centre offering total sensory immersion.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Entertainment that fills every sense would be a new industry beside cinema and games.

Who is paid. Assuming people pay at the door of a venue, others could build such centres once one existed, so the entertainment firms that own the stories and the sites collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Electronic Book Store: A shop where readers collect digital books.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electronic Book Store

Return from the Stars, Stanislaw Lem · 1961

A shop where readers collect digital books.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A shop for digital books changes what it costs to publish, ship and store books.

Who is paid. Readers buy the books, anyone could open such a shop, and the publishers who own the right to the books collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Interactive Map: A small book whose paper pages act as a touch-sensitive map.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Interactive Map

Return from the Stars, Stanislaw Lem · 1961

A small book whose paper pages act as a touch-sensitive map.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A touch-sensitive paper map is a handy travel aid.

Who is paid. Travellers buy it, the touch-sensitive pages are thin screens that can be copied, and the display makers with the factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Opton: An early vision of an e-reader holding many books on compact storage.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Opton

Return from the Stars, Stanislaw Lem · 1961

An early vision of an e-reader holding many books on compact storage.

built in the 1990s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A handheld screen holding many books or the day's paper is worth an industry and cuts the cost of printing and delivery.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the device is easy to copy, so the publishers and shops that already own the books and papers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Recording Radio: A handheld unit that captures audio and streams it live to a distant station.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Recording Radio

Four-Day Planet, H. Beam Piper · 1961

A handheld unit that captures audio and streams it live to a distant station.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Portable recording and sending kit is a useful tool for one trade.

Who is paid. News firms buy it and many makers can build such kit, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Stereo Tank: A set that displays broadcasts as three-dimensional scenes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stereo Tank

Stranger in a Strange Land, Robert Heinlein · 1961

A set that displays broadcasts as three-dimensional scenes.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Broadcasts with real depth would be the next kind of television set and worth an industry, though the real thing has so far sold poorly against the promise.

Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Stereovision Tank: Mass broadcasting in three dimensions, the successor to ordinary television.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stereovision Tank

Stranger in a Strange Land, Robert Heinlein · 1961

Mass broadcasting in three dimensions, the successor to ordinary television.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Broadcasts with real depth would be the next kind of television set and worth an industry, though the real thing has so far sold poorly against the promise.

Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Teleprinter: A machine that prints out the day's news at home.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Teleprinter

Four-Day Planet, H. Beam Piper · 1961

A machine that prints out the day's news at home.

already existed before the story (the 1920s)

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. News printed at home is a convenience over a paper brought to the door.

Who is paid. Readers pay for the service, and since the printer is easy to make, the news firms that already have the reporters and readers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Transmit Camera: A camera that sends its photos straight to a newsroom as they are taken.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Transmit Camera

Four-Day Planet, H. Beam Piper · 1961

A camera that sends its photos straight to a newsroom as they are taken.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A camera that sends pictures straight to the newsroom saves the press some hours, a narrow gain.

Who is paid. News firms buy it, and since many can make such a camera, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Free Telephone Call: Phone service paid for by short ads rather than fees.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Free Telephone Call

The Subliminal Man, J.G. Ballard · 1963

Phone service paid for by short ads rather than fees.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Calls paid for by listening to advertisements save callers a little money.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay in place of the callers, any phone firm could offer it, and the firms that own the phone networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of News Clown: A broadcaster who presents curated lighthearted news.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

News Clown

Stand-By, Philip K. Dick · 1963

A broadcaster who presents curated lighthearted news.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A light-hearted news show is one more programme among many.

Who is paid. I assumed viewers pay; anyone can present a show, so the broadcasters who already hold the channels collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Rifle Range (Virtual Shooting Range): A simulated target-shooting gallery with virtual clay targets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rifle Range (Virtual Shooting Range)

Way Station, Clifford Simak · 1963

A simulated target-shooting gallery with virtual clay targets.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A pretend shooting gallery is a niche amusement.

Who is paid. Players pay and many firms can build one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Subliminal Billboards: Huge roadside signs that seem empty but carry hidden advertising messages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Subliminal Billboards

The Subliminal Man, J.G. Ballard · 1963

Huge roadside signs that seem empty but carry hidden advertising messages.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Signs that truly made passers-by buy without knowing why would change what sellers spend to win customers.

Who is paid. Firms with goods to sell pay for the space, and since the hidden message is easy to copy, the owners of the roadside sites collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Adjustable Television: A TV that lets viewers alter what politicians say in broadcast speeches.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Adjustable Television

The Simulacra, Philip K. Dick · 1964

A TV that lets viewers alter what politicians say in broadcast speeches.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Changing what politicians appear to say on your own set is a toy, and a troubling one, not a need.

Who is paid. Viewers would buy it as a novelty feature and any set maker could add it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ampek F-a2 Recording System: An audio recorder that uses living tissue to store and replay sound.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ampek F-a2 Recording System

The Simulacra, Philip K. Dick · 1964

An audio recorder that uses living tissue to store and replay sound.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sound recorder made of living tissue does the same job as any other recorder, so it is a curiosity.

Who is paid. People would buy it as a recorder like any other, and ordinary recorders that many firms make hold its price down, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Commercial Fly: A tiny flying machine that pesters people with advertisements.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Commercial Fly

The Simulacra, Philip K. Dick · 1964

A tiny flying machine that pesters people with advertisements.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tiny flying machine that pesters people with advertisements is one more way to advertise, and an unwelcome one.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and once such fliers exist anyone can send them out, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Identificator: A projector that shows holographic door signs.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Identificator

The Star King, Jack Vance · 1964

A projector that shows holographic door signs.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A projected sign on a door is decoration, unlike a full display with depth.

Who is paid. Shops and offices buy it as signage and many sign makers could supply it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Word Tab: A tappable link in an electronic document that brings up more detail.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Word Tab

Cantata 140, Philip K. Dick · 1964

A tappable link in an electronic document that brings up more detail.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A link you tap for more detail is a handy feature inside documents, not a product on its own.

Who is paid. Firms that make reading software build it in, and since anyone can add such a link, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Battery-Powered 3D Comic Book: A comic book whose pages animate using a battery.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Battery-Powered 3D Comic Book

The Zap Gun, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A comic book whose pages animate using a battery.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A comic whose pages move is a novelty for readers.

Who is paid. Readers buy it, the moving page is easy to copy, and the publishers who own the popular characters collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Battle Language: A military language built to be clear to allies and hard for outsiders to translate.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Battle Language

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A military language built to be clear to allies and hard for outsiders to translate.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A spoken code for one army is useful to that army alone.

Who is paid. A government pays to have it devised and taught, and a language cannot be owned and any group of linguists could make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Communinet: A network open to the public for sharing data.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Communinet

Dune, Brian Herbert · 1965

A network open to the public for sharing data.

built in 1969, 4 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A network open to everyone for sharing information changes how most people work, shop and talk.

Who is paid. Households pay for a connection, the method is open for anyone to use, and the firms that own the wires and masts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Distrans: Leaves temporary messages imprinted in the nervous systems of bats or birds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Distrans

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

Leaves temporary messages imprinted in the nervous systems of bats or birds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Hiding a message in a bat or bird is a tool for spies and smugglers.

Who is paid. Assuming spy services are the buyers, a government pays, the story treats it as a common device others could make, and the firms that already supply such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Ego-Likeness

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A lifelike moving portrait that captures a person's tiny gestures.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lifelike moving portrait is a keepsake.

Who is paid. Families buy it, and anyone with the equipment could make such portraits, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Filament Paper Book: A tiny lightweight book for space travellers where every gram counts.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Filament Paper Book

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A tiny lightweight book for space travellers where every gram counts.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A very small, light book matters only where every bit of weight counts.

Who is paid. Unlike an electronic book, this is still a printed book on thin material, which travellers buy and any printer could make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Filmbook: A medium storing both text and video.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Filmbook

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A medium storing both text and video.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Books and film kept in one compact form change what it costs to publish, ship and store them.

Who is paid. Readers buy them, the storage medium is easy to copy, and the publishers who own the right to the contents collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Inter-Vehicle Communication: Lets drivers talk directly from one car to another.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Inter-Vehicle Communication

The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965

Lets drivers talk directly from one car to another.

built in the 1990s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Talking from car to car is a convenience for drivers.

Who is paid. Drivers buy it with the car, and it is easy to copy, so the established carmakers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Message Cylinder: A small secure capsule that stores and plays back a message.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Message Cylinder

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A small secure capsule that stores and plays back a message.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A compact way to carry a message or recording is a niche tool.

Who is paid. I assumed firms and officials buy it; many makers could produce it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Minimic Film: An extremely fine medium for carrying messages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Minimic Film

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

An extremely fine medium for carrying messages.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A compact way to carry a message or recording is a niche tool.

Who is paid. I assumed firms and officials buy it; many makers could produce it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Personalized Fashion Display: Screens showing you wearing different outfits.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Personalized Fashion Display

Bill the Galactic Hero, Harry Harrison · 1965

Screens showing you wearing different outfits.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Seeing yourself in different outfits on a screen is a sales aid for clothes shops.

Who is paid. Shops buy it, a screen and camera can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Shigawire: An extremely thin, strong wire used to store recordings.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Shigawire

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

An extremely thin, strong wire used to store recordings.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A compact way to carry a message or recording is a niche tool.

Who is paid. I assumed firms and officials buy it; many makers could produce it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Solido Projector: A projector that shows solid-looking three-dimensional pictures.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solido Projector

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A projector that shows solid-looking three-dimensional pictures.

built in the 1990s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A picture with true depth standing in the room would replace the flat screen and be worth an industry of its own; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.

Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ansible: Instant communication across interstellar distances.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ansible

Rocannon's World, Ursula LeGuin · 1966

Instant communication across interstellar distances.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Assuming people live around many stars, instant messages between them would be the backbone of all trade and rule across space, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations and not a pocket set, firms and governments with far-flung operations pay for the traffic, others could build the device once it is known to work, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Big Screen Control: Casting a personal device's content onto a large shared display.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Big Screen Control

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

Casting a personal device's content onto a large shared display.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Showing a personal device on a big shared screen is a handy feature.

Who is paid. It comes as a feature of devices people already buy and any maker can add it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Caller Contact List: A phone's stored directory of callers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Caller Contact List

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

A phone's stored directory of callers.

built in the 1980s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A stored list of callers is a handy feature of a phone.

Who is paid. It comes as a feature of phones people already buy and any maker can add it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Cellphone Voice Mail: Network storage of spoken messages for later playback.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cellphone Voice Mail

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

Network storage of spoken messages for later playback.

built in the 1990s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Spoken messages kept for later are a handy feature of phone service.

Who is paid. Callers pay for it as part of their phone service, it is easy to copy, and the firms that own the phone networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Reciprocal Name: A short nickname that maps to someone's full identity and phone number.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Reciprocal Name

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

A short nickname that maps to someone's full identity and phone number.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A short name that stands for a full identity and number is a convenience.

Who is paid. Phone users pay; the idea is easy to copy, so the network firms that already hold the directory collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Virtual Kiss (Tactile Net): A device that transmits the touch of a kiss over a distance.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Virtual Kiss (Tactile Net)

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

A device that transmits the touch of a kiss over a distance.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Feeling a far-off partner's touch is a novelty for couples who are apart.

Who is paid. Couples would buy it for themselves, and since many could make such a gadget, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Virtual Reality Construct: Immersive simulated scenes projected without any headset.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Virtual Reality Construct

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

Immersive simulated scenes projected without any headset.

built in the 2020s, about 60 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Stepping into a simulated scene with no headset would be a new form of entertainment worth an industry; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.

Who is paid. Households pay for the equipment and the scenes, and since the projector could be copied, the firms that already own the studios and electronics factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Virtual Reality Video Game: A real-time simulated computer game played for fun.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Virtual Reality Video Game

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

A real-time simulated computer game played for fun.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Simulated games played for fun are one of the biggest forms of entertainment.

Who is paid. Players buy the games, and since the idea is open to all, the studios that already own popular titles and the machines they run on collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Voice Dialing: Calling someone by saying their name aloud to a phone.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Voice Dialing

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

Calling someone by saying their name aloud to a phone.

built in the 1990s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Speaking to a phone instead of pressing keys is a convenience added to something people already own.

Who is paid. It comes as a feature of phones people already buy and any maker can add it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Voice-Enabled Smartphone: A phone run entirely by spoken commands.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Voice-Enabled Smartphone

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

A phone run entirely by spoken commands.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Speaking to a phone instead of pressing keys is a convenience added to something people already own.

Who is paid. Spoken control comes as a feature of phones people already buy and any maker can add it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Newspad: A thin portable screen for reading news and documents, much like a tablet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Newspad

2001: A Space Odyssey, Arthur C. Clarke · 1968

A thin portable screen for reading news and documents, much like a tablet.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A handheld screen holding many books or the day's paper is worth an industry and cuts the cost of printing and delivery.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the device is easy to copy, so the publishers and shops that already own the books and papers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Newspad Electronic Newspaper: A tablet showing a digital edition of the daily paper.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Newspad Electronic Newspaper

2001: A Space Odyssey, Arthur C. Clarke · 1968

A tablet showing a digital edition of the daily paper.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A handheld screen holding many books or the day's paper is worth an industry and cuts the cost of printing and delivery.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the device is easy to copy, so the publishers and shops that already own the books and papers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Wholographik: A three-dimensional light-based picture, similar to a hologram.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wholographik

Stand on Zanzibar, John Brunner · 1968

A three-dimensional light-based picture, similar to a hologram.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A picture with true depth standing in the room would replace the flat screen and be worth an industry of its own; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.

Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Book of the Kalends: A self-rewriting chronicle of a world's history that keeps changing its contents.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Book of the Kalends

Galactic Pot-Healer, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A self-rewriting chronicle of a world's history that keeps changing its contents.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Assuming it only records a world's history and does not foretell it, a chronicle that keeps itself up to date is a reference work for the curious.

Who is paid. Assuming readers buy copies, there is only this chronicle and only its keepers can write it, so they keep what readers pay.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Homeopape: A machine that assembles and prints a newspaper with no human editors.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Homeopape

Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A machine that assembles and prints a newspaper with no human editors.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. News put together with no human editors removes the main cost of the news trade.

Who is paid. Assuming a machine readers buy or subscribe to, once machines can write the news anyone can run one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Pape Machine: A device that prints a freshly tailored newspaper and lets readers search the news.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pape Machine

Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A device that prints a freshly tailored newspaper and lets readers search the news.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. News sorted to each reader's interests changes how the news trade reaches people.

Who is paid. Readers pay by subscription; the sorting is easy to copy, so those who already hold the reporting and the audience collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sniggertrance: The twitching inward trance a person enters while receiving a mind-borne call.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sniggertrance

Whipping Star, Frank Herbert · 1969

The twitching inward trance a person enters while receiving a mind-borne call.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a creature's nature or a state of mind, not something made and sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Viewing Tank: A display screen for showing images.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Viewing Tank

The Man in the Maze, Robert Silverberg · 1969

A display screen for showing images.

built in the 1960s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A thin screen for the wall is the form nearly every display now takes and is an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Whologram: A projection that creates a lifelike three-dimensional illusion.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Whologram

Super-Toys Last All Summer Long, Brian Aldiss · 1969

A projection that creates a lifelike three-dimensional illusion.

built in the 1960s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A picture with true depth standing in the room would replace the flat screen and be worth an industry of its own; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.

Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Holo: A shortened word for a three-dimensional hologram image.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Holo

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

A shortened word for a three-dimensional hologram image.

already existed before the story (1964)

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The word stands for pictures with true depth, which would replace flat screens in homes and workplaces.

Who is paid. Judging the display the word names, households buy it, the design can be copied, and the existing screen makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Neck Radio: An implant that plays commercial broadcasts inside the wearer's head.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Neck Radio

Our Friends From Frolix 8, Philip K. Dick · 1970

An implant that plays commercial broadcasts inside the wearer's head.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Sound fed straight into the ear is a convenience over an ordinary radio or speaker.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it and many firms can make tiny ear pieces, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Tower of Glass: A giant glass spire built to send messages beyond the solar system.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tower of Glass

Tower of Glass, Robert Silverberg · 1970

A giant glass spire built to send messages beyond the solar system.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. One great spire for calling beyond the solar system is a single act of curiosity with no customers waiting for the service.

Who is paid. I assume a state would pay for it as a science project, as nobody could be charged for its use, and the big builders that already win such works would be paid.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Translator Discs: Worn devices that link to a computer to translate speech between languages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Translator Discs

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

Worn devices that link to a computer to translate speech between languages.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Being understood in any language while wearing a small disc removes a barrier to travel and trade for a great many people.

Who is paid. Travellers and traders buy it, and once one firm had made a good translator others could too, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Pocket Display Projector: A pocket-sized projector that throws sharp images for a group to watch.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pocket Display Projector

The Anome, Jack Vance · 1971

A pocket-sized projector that throws sharp images for a group to watch.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Unlike a personal film player, a projector in the pocket is an accessory for showing pictures to a group.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it and many firms can make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Implanted Tranceiver: A body implant for two-way talk without carrying a handset.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Implanted Tranceiver

The Godmakers, Frank Herbert · 1972

A body implant for two-way talk without carrying a handset.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A phone inside the body that is never lost or left behind would be worth an industry, though surgery would put many people off.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, the device can be copied, and the firms that own the phone networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Newstaper Gear: Portable kit a one-person news crew uses to find, film and report stories.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Newstaper Gear

Flash Crowd, Larry Niven · 1972

Portable kit a one-person news crew uses to find, film and report stories.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Portable recording and sending kit is a useful tool for one trade.

Who is paid. News firms buy it and many makers can build such kit, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Transmit-Paper: Writing sheets that send pen strokes over a network to distant computers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Transmit-Paper

The Godmakers, Frank Herbert · 1972

Writing sheets that send pen strokes over a network to distant computers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Paper that sends pen strokes to a distant computer is a handy way to enter notes, not a need.

Who is paid. Offices buy it, and since many can make such sheets, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Light-Sculpture: An artwork shaped from light itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Light-Sculpture

Light Verse, Isaac Asimov · 1973

An artwork shaped from light itself.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An artwork made of light is a luxury for collectors.

Who is paid. Collectors buy it; I assumed the method is open to any artist, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Phone-Grid Transex Network: A fictional networked intimacy service portrayed as addictive in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Phone-Grid Transex Network

Flow My Tears, The Policeman Said, Philip K. Dick · 1974

A fictional networked intimacy service portrayed as addictive in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A networked intimacy service that people cannot put down would draw spending on the scale of an industry.

Who is paid. Users pay; I assumed it stays legal and can be copied, so the firms that own the phone network it runs on collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Picphone: A compact phone with a screen for sending and seeing pictures.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Picphone

Flow My Tears, The Policeman Said, Philip K. Dick · 1974

A compact phone with a screen for sending and seeing pictures.

built in the 2000s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A phone carried everywhere changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; handsets are easy to copy, so the firms that own the networks and airwaves collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Projection: Sending a lifelike image of yourself to appear somewhere far away.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Projection

The Computer Connection, Alfred Bester · 1974

Sending a lifelike image of yourself to appear somewhere far away.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Appearing lifelike in a far place would replace much travel for meetings.

Who is paid. I assumed firms pay to save travel; once shown it can be copied, so the firms that own the networks carrying the image collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Projection Commercials: Three-dimensional adverts projected directly into people's path in public spaces.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Projection Commercials

The Computer Connection, Alfred Bester · 1974

Three-dimensional adverts projected directly into people's path in public spaces.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Adverts thrown into people's path are one more way to advertise, not a new need.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay, the projector is easy to copy and nobody owns the open air it shines into, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Talking Pamphlet: A printed guide that explains its instructions aloud in plain speech.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Talking Pamphlet

Ellison Wonderland, Harlan Ellison · 1974

A printed guide that explains its instructions aloud in plain speech.

built in the 1970s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Print that speaks is a handy extra on a book or a leaflet, not something people need.

Who is paid. Publishers and makers of goods pay to add it, and since the chip is cheap and simple to copy, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Data-Net: A countrywide computer network linking data across a nation.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Data-Net

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

A countrywide computer network linking data across a nation.

already existed before the story (1969)

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A network linking information across a whole country changes how most people work, shop and talk.

Who is paid. Households pay for a connection, the method is open for anyone to use, and the firms that own the wires and masts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Hearing Aid: An anonymous phone line where callers speak to someone who only listens.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hearing Aid

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

An anonymous phone line where callers speak to someone who only listens.

already existed before the story (the 1960s)

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A line where someone simply listens comforts callers in need and is not a large trade.

Who is paid. Assuming callers pay a little or give to keep it running, anyone with patient listeners and a phone line can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tiered Internet: Giving some kinds of network traffic priority over others.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tiered Internet

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

Giving some kinds of network traffic priority over others.

built in the 2000s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Letting some traffic jump the queue changes what network owners can charge the firms that depend on them.

Who is paid. Firms that need fast delivery pay for the faster lane, and only those who already own the lines can sell it, so they collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Comlink: A small handheld device for talking to others remotely.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Comlink

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

A small handheld device for talking to others remotely.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A small device for talking to anyone at a distance changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. People buy one each, handsets are easy to copy, and the firms that own the networks the calls travel over collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Poster TV: A television as thin as a wall poster.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Poster TV

A World Out of Time, Larry Niven · 1976

A television as thin as a wall poster.

already existed before the story (1964)

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A television as thin as a poster is the wall screen of the home, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it inside the things they own; once shown it can be copied, so the firms with the big screen factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Trans-Space Transmission: A method for sending messages instantly between worlds across space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Trans-Space Transmission

The Moon Moth, Jack Vance · 1976

A method for sending messages instantly between worlds across space.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Talking across the stars with no delay would be the backbone of trade and rule between worlds, judged as if it worked, though it serves only those who live or work out there.

Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations and not a pocket set, firms and governments with far-flung operations pay for the traffic, others could build the device once it is known to work, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Caleban Contact: Mind-to-mind communication powered by colossal energy expenditure.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Caleban Contact

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

Mind-to-mind communication powered by colossal energy expenditure.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is contact with a strange being that happens to people, not a device anyone could make and sell.

Who is paid. Nothing is made or sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ghostsmoke: Promotional images cast onto a hanging cloud of fine spray.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ghostsmoke

The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977

Promotional images cast onto a hanging cloud of fine spray.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Images on a cloud of spray are one more way to catch the eye for an advertisement.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and a sprayer and a projector are easy for anyone to set up, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Holo-Cube: A room-sized three-dimensional image display that viewers can step inside.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Holo-Cube

A Scanner Darkly, Philip K. Dick · 1977

A room-sized three-dimensional image display that viewers can step inside.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A room-sized picture with depth that you can step into would replace flat screens for home entertainment.

Who is paid. Assuming it is fitted in homes, households buy it, the design can be copied, and the existing screen makers, who own the factories and brands, collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Holomist: Advertising projected onto a curtain of fine vapour.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Holomist

The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977

Advertising projected onto a curtain of fine vapour.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Advertising on a curtain of vapour is one more way to catch the eye.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and a sprayer and a projector are easy for anyone to set up, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Holopad: A handheld tablet that shows pictures with true depth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Holopad

The Fountains of Paradise, Arthur C. Clarke · 1978

A handheld tablet that shows pictures with true depth.

built in the 1990s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A handheld tablet showing pictures with true depth, working as the story promises and not as those built so far, would replace flat screens on personal devices.

Who is paid. Households buy it, the design can be copied, and the existing screen makers, who own the factories and brands, collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Personal Interest Profile (PIP): A stored list of subjects that pulls in fresh news matching a reader's interests.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Personal Interest Profile (PIP)

The Fountains of Paradise, Arthur C. Clarke · 1978

A stored list of subjects that pulls in fresh news matching a reader's interests.

built in the 2000s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. News sorted to each reader's interests changes how the news trade reaches people.

Who is paid. Readers pay by subscription; the sorting is easy to copy, so those who already hold the reporting and the audience collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Babel Fish: A small creature worn in the ear that translates any spoken language for its host.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Babel Fish

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams · 1979

A small creature worn in the ear that translates any spoken language for its host.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Understanding any spoken language at once would remove a cost from travel, trade and every job done across borders.

Who is paid. People buy one each, and since it is a creature that breeds, anyone can raise and sell them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electronic Book: A handheld electronic reference book with a screen and simple controls.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electronic Book

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams · 1979

A handheld electronic reference book with a screen and simple controls.

built in 1998, 19 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A handheld electronic book changes what it costs to publish, ship and store books.

Who is paid. Readers buy the device and the books, the device is easy to copy, and the publishers who own the right to the contents collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Wristband Viewer: A wrist-worn screen for watching images sent down from overhead surveillance.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wristband Viewer

Changeling, Roger Zelazny · 1980

A wrist-worn screen for watching images sent down from overhead surveillance.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A wrist screen showing pictures from watchers overhead is a tool for those who do the watching.

Who is paid. Unlike the other wrist devices, this one serves surveillance, so police and armed forces pay and the firms that already hold their contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Black square: A device for exchanging hidden messages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Black square

God Emperor of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1981

A device for exchanging hidden messages.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A device for passing hidden messages serves the few who need secrecy.

Who is paid. The description gives little, so assuming firms and officials with secrets buy it, ways of hiding messages are widely known and many could make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Virtual World Kiss: An intimate embrace between people carried out through a simulated online space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Virtual World Kiss

True Names, Vernor Vinge · 1981

An intimate embrace between people carried out through a simulated online space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Feeling a far-off partner's touch is a novelty for couples who are apart.

Who is paid. Couples would buy it for themselves, and since many could make such a gadget, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Advertising Airship: A blimp whose sides carry colourful video commercials.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Advertising Airship

Blade Runner, Ridley Scott · 1982

A blimp whose sides carry colourful video commercials.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A flying video billboard is one more place to show advertisements.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay for the space, and anyone can fly a blimp with screens over a city, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Call Notification Unit: A pocket gadget signalling that someone is ringing your home phone.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Call Notification Unit

Eye of Cat, Roger Zelazny · 1982

A pocket gadget signalling that someone is ringing your home phone.

already existed before the story (the 1950s)

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Knowing that your home phone is ringing while you are out is a minor convenience.

Who is paid. People buy the gadget for themselves and it is simple to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Command Microphone: A cape that doubles as a voice pickup and loudspeaker.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Command Microphone

Diplomat At Arms, Keith Laumer · 1982

A cape that doubles as a voice pickup and loudspeaker.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cape that picks up and amplifies the voice is a niche piece of kit for those who address crowds.

Who is paid. Assuming speakers and the organisations they work for buy it, it is a microphone and speaker sewn into cloth that anyone could make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Full-Motion Building Advertising Facade: Video advertising covering the whole exterior of a skyscraper.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Full-Motion Building Advertising Facade

Blade Runner, Ridley Scott · 1982

Video advertising covering the whole exterior of a skyscraper.

built in the 1990s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Video across a whole building is one more place to show advertisements.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay, the screens are easy to make, and the owners of tall buildings in busy places collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Comeye: A carried video camera letting a travelling official stay connected to headquarters.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Comeye

Heretics of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1984

A carried video camera letting a travelling official stay connected to headquarters.

already existed before the story (1983)

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A carried camera linking a travelling official to headquarters is a tool for a few people.

Who is paid. The official's government pays, portable video cameras are easy to copy, and the firms that already supply governments with such equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Generate New Phone Number: Software that assigns a fresh calling number to every call placed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Generate New Phone Number

Press Enter, John Varley · 1984

Software that assigns a fresh calling number to every call placed.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A fresh number for every call serves the few who want not to be traced.

Who is paid. People who want privacy pay for it, and it is software many could write, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Adnix: A gadget that silences the television whenever commercials come on.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Adnix

Contact, Carl Sagan · 1985

A gadget that silences the television whenever commercials come on.

built in the 2000s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Silencing advertisements is a pleasant convenience for viewers and nothing more.

Who is paid. Viewers buy the gadget and it is easy for any electronics firm to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Earmite: A tiny speaker that sits inside the ear.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Earmite

Freezone, John Shirley · 1985

A tiny speaker that sits inside the ear.

already existed before the story (the 1910s)

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tiny speaker inside the ear is a convenience for listening in private.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves and tiny ear speakers are simple for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Fieldstim: A device that conveys pictures by stimulating a wide patch of skin.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fieldstim

Freezone, John Shirley · 1985

A device that conveys pictures by stimulating a wide patch of skin.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Pictures felt through the skin would help people who cannot see and be a novelty for others.

Who is paid. Assuming people buy it for themselves, it needs no rare part and many firms could make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Wire Act: A performer fitted with body hardware that turns their movements into music.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wire Act

Freezone, John Shirley · 1985

A performer fitted with body hardware that turns their movements into music.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A performer whose movements become music is a stage act for those who like the show.

Who is paid. Audiences buy tickets, and since any performer could fit the same hardware, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Blaupunkt Holostage: A tabletop unit that shows images with true depth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Blaupunkt Holostage

Snake-Eyes, Tom Maddox · 1986

A tabletop unit that shows images with true depth.

built in the 1990s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A tabletop display with true depth, working as the story promises and not as those built so far, would replace flat screens in homes and workplaces, which is an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Households buy it, the design can be copied, and the existing screen makers, who own the factories and brands, collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Polycarbon Phone Screen: A thin folding screen that turns a telephone into a video phone.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Polycarbon Phone Screen

Count Zero, William Gibson · 1986

A thin folding screen that turns a telephone into a video phone.

built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A fold-out screen is an add-on part; the picture call itself is the larger prize.

Who is paid. Phone owners buy it, a thin folding screen can be copied, and the display makers with the factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Raisin: An in-ear gadget pairing a smart assistant with wireless network access.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Raisin

Nanotime, Bart Kosko · 1987

An in-ear gadget pairing a smart assistant with wireless network access.

built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A helper in the ear that answers questions and reaches the network is far more than a radio and worth an industry.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the ear piece is easy to copy, so the firms that already run the helper and the networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Webcast: Broadcasting shows over a computer network.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Webcast

Armageddon Blues, D.K. Moran · 1987

Broadcasting shows over a computer network.

built in 1995, 8 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Sending shows over a computer network is how most broadcasts now reach people and is an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Viewers pay a fee or sit through adverts, and since the sending is easy to copy, the firms that already own the shows and the networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Book-Film: A compact medium for keeping the text of books.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Book-Film

Prelude to Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1988

A compact medium for keeping the text of books.

built in 1998, 10 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Books kept in a compact form instead of on paper change what it costs to publish, ship and store them.

Who is paid. Readers buy the books, the storage medium is easy to copy, and the publishers who own the right to the books collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Didge-Ital: Music recorded and played back as computer data.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Didge-Ital

Islands in the Net, Bruce Sterling · 1988

Music recorded and played back as computer data.

built in the 1980s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Music kept and played as computer data changes what it costs to record, copy and deliver it.

Who is paid. Listeners pay for the music, the method is open to all, and the labels and artists who own the songs collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Powered Print-Book: A hybrid object that works partly as a book and partly as a computer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Powered Print-Book

Prelude to Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1988

A hybrid object that works partly as a book and partly as a computer.

built in 1998, 10 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A handheld screen holding many books or the day's paper is worth an industry and cuts the cost of printing and delivery.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the device is easy to copy, so the publishers and shops that already own the books and papers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Print-Book: An ordinary printed book, treated as a curiosity in a far-future setting.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Print-Book

Prelude to Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1988

An ordinary printed book, treated as a curiosity in a far-future setting.

built since, date unclear

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The ordinary printed book, a curiosity in the story, is in fact worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Readers buy the books, anyone can run a press, and the publishers who own the right to the books collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Projection Rig: A carryable unit that casts three-dimensional images into the air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Projection Rig

Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988

A carryable unit that casts three-dimensional images into the air.

built in the 1990s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Unlike a display with depth for the home, a carryable unit that casts pictures into the air is a tool for shows and displays.

Who is paid. I assumed showmen and firms buy it; many could make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Video-Glasses: Eyewear with light-collecting optics that let the wearer see all around them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Video-Glasses

Islands in the Net, Bruce Sterling · 1988

Eyewear with light-collecting optics that let the wearer see all around them.

built in the 1990s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Eyewear whose optics let the wearer see all around is an aid for a few tasks, not a screen for everyday use.

Who is paid. Unlike eyewear that shows video, this only widens the view, so I assume a few people buy it for themselves, and since many can make one, the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Videoshades: Sunglasses with built-in screens for watching chosen video.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Videoshades

Islands in the Net, Bruce Sterling · 1988

Sunglasses with built-in screens for watching chosen video.

built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Screens built into glasses, working as promised, would take over much of what people now do on handheld screens.

Who is paid. People buy them for themselves, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Vizzyprint: A printer hooked to a video phone for hard copies of what is shown.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vizzyprint

Wetware, Rudy Rucker · 1988

A printer hooked to a video phone for hard copies of what is shown.

already existed before the story (the 1970s)

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Printing what a video phone shows is a small extra for the few times a paper copy is wanted.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and since it is just a printer on a phone, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Watchphone: A wristwatch that doubles as a mobile telephone.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Watchphone

Islands in the Net, Bruce Sterling · 1988

A wristwatch that doubles as a mobile telephone.

built in 2014, 26 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Judged on the promise of a phone worn on the wrist as the phone people carry everywhere, which changes how most people live and work, though the real ones arrived after the pocket phone and stayed an extra.

Who is paid. People buy one each, a wrist set is as easy to copy as a pocket handset, and the firms that own the networks the calls travel over collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Fatline: Instant messaging between star systems that outruns light.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fatline

Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989

Instant messaging between star systems that outruns light.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Assuming people live around many stars, instant messages between them would be the backbone of all trade and rule across space, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations and not a pocket set, firms and governments with far-flung operations pay for the traffic, others could build the device once it is known to work, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Flat Photo: An ordinary flat photograph, treated as quaint in the future setting.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flat Photo

Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989

An ordinary flat photograph, treated as quaint in the future setting.

already existed before the story (the 1820s)

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The ordinary photograph, quaint in the story, is in fact worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. People pay for cameras and prints, and many firms can make them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Worldweb All Thing: A network linking vast populations together instantly.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Worldweb All Thing

Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989

A network linking vast populations together instantly.

built in the 2000s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A shared network that lets anyone reach knowledge and one another from anywhere changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for access, and since no one firm can keep others off an open network, the firms that already own the lines and the big gathering places on it collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Wrist Command: A wrist-worn device for communicating and computing on the move.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wrist Command

Tides of Light, Gregory Benford · 1989

A wrist-worn device for communicating and computing on the move.

built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Judged on the promise of a phone worn on the wrist as the phone people carry everywhere, which changes how most people live and work, though the real ones arrived after the pocket phone and stayed an extra.

Who is paid. People buy one each, a wrist set is as easy to copy as a pocket handset, and the firms that own the networks the calls travel over collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Citizen Journalism: Ordinary people using phones and the web to report the news themselves.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Citizen Journalism

Earth, David Brin · 1990

Ordinary people using phones and the web to report the news themselves.

built in the 1990s, about 0 years after it was imagined

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Ordinary people reporting the news themselves is a habit, not a product, and they do it without charge.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, since the phones and the web it relies on are judged separately.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Credibility Rating: A score attached to online writing that tells readers how trustworthy it is.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Credibility Rating

Earth, David Brin · 1990

A score attached to online writing that tells readers how trustworthy it is.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A score that reliably told readers what to trust online would reshape news and publishing.

Who is paid. Assuming sites and publishers pay to carry the score, the scorer that readers have come to trust is hard to copy because trust takes long to earn.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of E-Document Distribution: Beaming a document wirelessly to everyone in a gathering at once.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

E-Document Distribution

Earth, David Brin · 1990

Beaming a document wirelessly to everyone in a gathering at once.

built in the 2000s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Sending a document to everyone in a room at once saves a little time.

Who is paid. It comes as a feature of devices firms already buy and any maker can add it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Leaf Screens: Display panels grown from engineered plants with flat, leaf-like surfaces.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Leaf Screens

Sparrowhawk, Thomas A. Easton · 1990

Display panels grown from engineered plants with flat, leaf-like surfaces.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2080s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A thin screen grown like a leaf could replace much printing and most rigid screens.

Who is paid. People buy the panels for their homes, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the growers and screen sellers that already hold stock and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Reading Plaque: A slim handheld screen used for reading books and documents.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Reading Plaque

Earth, David Brin · 1990

A slim handheld screen used for reading books and documents.

built in the 1990s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A handheld screen holding many books or the day's paper is worth an industry and cuts the cost of printing and delivery.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the device is easy to copy, so the publishers and shops that already own the books and papers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of True-Vu Lenses (Goggles): Wearable eyepieces that let the user look through them while capturing video of the scene.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

True-Vu Lenses (Goggles)

Earth, David Brin · 1990

Wearable eyepieces that let the user look through them while capturing video of the scene.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Eyewear that films what the wearer sees is a camera worn on the face, a gadget some people would enjoy.

Who is paid. Unlike eyewear that shows pictures, this only records, so I assume it stays an extra that ordinary people buy, and since many can make one, the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Flatscreen Movie: An ordinary flat film, named from the viewpoint of a world used to holographic recordings.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flatscreen Movie

Orbital Resources, John Barnes · 1991

An ordinary flat film, named from the viewpoint of a world used to holographic recordings.

already existed before the story (the 1890s)

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The ordinary flat film, quaint in the story, is in fact worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Audiences pay to watch, anyone can run a projector, and the studios that own the films collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Avatar: A digital figure that represents a person inside a shared virtual world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Avatar

Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992

A digital figure that represents a person inside a shared virtual world.

built in 2022, 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A figure that stands for you in a virtual world is a feature of that world, bought mostly for looks.

Who is paid. Users pay for their figures and extras, any world could offer them, and the firms that already run the popular worlds collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of DreamTime Scleral Contact Lenses: Eye-covering lenses that overlay digital imagery on what the wearer sees.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

DreamTime Scleral Contact Lenses

The California Voodoo Game, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes · 1992

Eye-covering lenses that overlay digital imagery on what the wearer sees.

built in 2016, 24 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Lenses that lay pictures over what you see, working as promised, would take over much of what people now do on handheld screens.

Who is paid. People buy them for themselves, the design is harder than glasses but can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hypercard: A digital calling card exchanged between users in a virtual world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hypercard

Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992

A digital calling card exchanged between users in a virtual world.

built in 2022, 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A calling card swapped inside a virtual world is a minor feature of that world.

Who is paid. It comes as a feature of software people already use and any developer can add it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Metaverse: A shared online three-dimensional world where people meet and interact.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Metaverse

Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992

A shared online three-dimensional world where people meet and interact.

built in 2022, 30 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A shared online world where people meet would be worth an industry; I judged the promise, which is larger than what was built.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay; the software can be copied but the crowd already inside cannot, so the first world to fill up keeps most.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Padloid: A gossip news outlet delivered on a handheld tablet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Padloid

Steel Beach, John Varley · 1992

A gossip news outlet delivered on a handheld tablet.

built in 2010, 18 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A gossip paper read on a tablet is one more title among many.

Who is paid. Readers pay; anyone can publish gossip, so the publishers who already have the readers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Hood Hologram: A three-dimensional image projected across a car bonnet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hood Hologram

Virtual Light, William Gibson · 1993

A three-dimensional image projected across a car bonnet.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A picture floating over a car bonnet is decoration, unlike a full display with depth.

Who is paid. Car owners buy it as an ornament and many accessory makers could supply it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Accu-Terrain Floor: A shape-changing floor that mimics the ground underfoot in a virtual world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Accu-Terrain Floor

Natulife, David Brin · 1994

A shape-changing floor that mimics the ground underfoot in a virtual world.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A floor that copies virtual ground is an add-on for people who already play in virtual worlds.

Who is paid. Assuming a home unit, players buy it, and it is a mechanical floor many firms could build, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Stim-Crib: A baby's cot that immerses infants in simulated worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stim-Crib

Natulife, David Brin · 1994

A baby's cot that immerses infants in simulated worlds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cot that shows a baby simulated worlds is a luxury for some parents, not a need.

Who is paid. Parents buy it, and I assume it is a home product many firms could make once one had, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Voice-Changing Bowtie: A wearable gadget that makes the wearer sound like someone else.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Voice-Changing Bowtie

Case Closed (Detective Conan), Gosho Aoyama · 1994

A wearable gadget that makes the wearer sound like someone else.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Sounding like someone else is a toy and a tool for performers and pranksters.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and since many can make a voice changer, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of XV Wedge: A show built from recorded, edited first-person sensory experience that audiences relive.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

XV Wedge

Mother of Storms, John Barnes · 1994

A show built from recorded, edited first-person sensory experience that audiences relive.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Reliving another person's recorded senses would be a new mass entertainment to rival film.

Who is paid. Audiences pay for each show, and once the recording method was known others could use it, so the studios that already own stars and stories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mediaglyphic: Moving pictograms that stand in for written text for people who cannot read.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mediaglyphic

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

Moving pictograms that stand in for written text for people who cannot read.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Moving signs that stand in for text help those who cannot read, a narrow use once judged as the work of devising and drawing them.

Who is paid. Assuming publishers and sign makers pay designers to draw the signs, as an army would pay for a battle language, a way of writing cannot be owned and any designer could offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mediatronic Display: Large, thin sheets of digital paper that can show any text or image.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mediatronic Display

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

Large, thin sheets of digital paper that can show any text or image.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A screen as thin and bendable as paper could replace much printing and most rigid screens.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it inside the things they own; once shown it can be copied, so the firms with the big screen factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Phantoscope (phenomenoscope): An eye-worn or implanted screen that overlays computer imagery on vision.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Phantoscope (phenomenoscope)

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

An eye-worn or implanted screen that overlays computer imagery on vision.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Information laid over what you see would change many jobs and daily errands; I judged the promise, which is larger than what has been sold.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the glasses can be copied, so the firms that already hold the software and the information shown collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Phased Acoustical Array: A tiny audio system fitted onto the eardrum to play sound straight into the ear.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Phased Acoustical Array

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

A tiny audio system fitted onto the eardrum to play sound straight into the ear.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Sound fed straight into the ear is a convenience over an ordinary radio or speaker.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it and many firms can make tiny ear pieces, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Runcible: A bound volume whose every leaf is a thin, bendable electronic screen.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Runcible

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

A bound volume whose every leaf is a thin, bendable electronic screen.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A handheld screen holding many books or the day's paper is worth an industry and cuts the cost of printing and delivery.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the device is easy to copy, so the publishers and shops that already own the books and papers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Smart Paper: An ultra-thin flexible screen sheet that behaves like paper.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Smart Paper

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

An ultra-thin flexible screen sheet that behaves like paper.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A screen as thin and bendable as paper could replace much printing and most rigid screens.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it inside the things they own; once shown it can be copied, so the firms with the big screen factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Eyephone(s): Compact goggles that beam pictures straight onto the wearer's eyes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Eyephone(s)

Idoru, William Gibson · 1996

Compact goggles that beam pictures straight onto the wearer's eyes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Goggles that put pictures straight onto the eyes, working as promised, would take over much of what people now do on handheld screens.

Who is paid. People buy them for themselves, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Synthespian: A computer-generated celebrity who performs and interacts with fans as if real.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Synthespian

Idoru, William Gibson · 1996

A computer-generated celebrity who performs and interacts with fans as if real.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A made-up star who performs and answers fans as if real could carry a whole entertainment business.

Who is paid. Fans pay for the music, the shows and the goods, and though one character can be owned, any studio could make a star of its own, so the studios and labels that already own the stages and the audiences collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of UPUD: A satellite position and communications link used by soldiers in the field.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

UPUD

First to Fight, David Sherman (w/Cragg) · 1997

A satellite position and communications link used by soldiers in the field.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Knowing where every soldier is and being able to reach them from orbit changes how an army fights.

Who is paid. The armed forces pay, and since several firms could build the handsets and satellites, those that already hold defence contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Boob Cube: A box that shows television news as solid holographic scenes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Boob Cube

The Best of all Possible Wars, Larry Niven · 1998

A box that shows television news as solid holographic scenes.

built in the 2010s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A box showing broadcasts as solid scenes, working as the story promises and not as those built so far, would replace flat screens in homes, which is an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Households buy it, the design can be copied, and the existing screen makers, who own the factories and brands, collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Desktop-TV: User-made video that anyone can publish and anyone worldwide can watch.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Desktop-TV

Factoring Humanity, Robert J. Sawyer · 1998

User-made video that anyone can publish and anyone worldwide can watch.

built in 2005, 7 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Video that anyone can publish and anyone can watch is a new entertainment industry.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay to reach the viewers, and the site where the makers and the audience have already gathered is hard to copy because each side goes where the other is.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Monobloc Dating System: A bar fitted with special machines and software that pair up patrons for romance.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Monobloc Dating System

The Best of all Possible Wars, Larry Niven · 1998

A bar fitted with special machines and software that pair up patrons for romance.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A bar that pairs up its patrons is a niche amusement.

Who is paid. Patrons pay and any bar could install such machines, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Interactive Video Column: A shop display streaming live views from sister stores around the world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Interactive Video Column

All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999

A shop display streaming live views from sister stores around the world.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A display of live views from other shops is a decoration for a store.

Who is paid. Shop chains buy it, a screen and a camera link can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Motion Capture Suit: A sensor-studded bodysuit that records movement to animate computer graphics.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Motion Capture Suit

All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999

A sensor-studded bodysuit that records movement to animate computer graphics.

already existed before the story (the 1970s)

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A suit that records movement is a tool for film and game makers.

Who is paid. Studios buy it and many firms can make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Video Wallpaper: Wall-sized ultra-thin screens that cover surfaces like wallpaper.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Video Wallpaper

A Deepness in the Sky, Vernor Vinge · 1999

Wall-sized ultra-thin screens that cover surfaces like wallpaper.

built in the 1990s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A thin screen for the wall is the form nearly every display now takes and is an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of E-paper Newspaper: A bendable electronic sheet that shows a full page of news that updates.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

E-paper Newspaper

Minority Report (Movie), Steven Spielberg · 2002

A bendable electronic sheet that shows a full page of news that updates.

already existed before the story (1997)

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A bendable sheet that shows updating news is a nicer way to read what a handheld screen already shows.

Who is paid. Readers buy it, the sheet can be copied, and the display makers with the factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Immersive Home Video: A projection system that lets people step into and replay family recordings.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Immersive Home Video

Minority Report (Movie), Steven Spielberg · 2002

A projection system that lets people step into and replay family recordings.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A picture with depth that you can step into, here used for family recordings, would replace flat screens for home viewing.

Who is paid. Households buy it, the design can be copied, and the existing screen makers, who own the factories and brands, collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Maelstrom: An imagined successor to today's global computer network.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Maelstrom

Maelstrom, Peter Watts · 2002

An imagined successor to today's global computer network.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A worldwide network linking every person and machine changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. Ordinary people and firms pay for access; the methods are open, so those who own the cables and exchanges collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Minority Report Ads (Biometric Personalized Ads): Street displays that recognise passers-by and pitch products to them personally.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Minority Report Ads (Biometric Personalized Ads)

Minority Report (Movie), Steven Spielberg · 2002

Street displays that recognise passers-by and pitch products to them personally.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Unlike a plain sign, a display that knows each passer-by and pitches to them personally would change what public advertising is worth.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay; the screens are easy to copy, so those who already hold the sites and the records about people collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of E-Sheet: A cheap throwaway sheet that displays digital messages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

E-Sheet

Darwin's Children, Greg Bear · 2003

A cheap throwaway sheet that displays digital messages.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A throwaway sheet that shows a message is a convenience where paper or a screen would also do.

Who is paid. Unlike a lasting electronic newspaper, this is cheap and disposable by design, so many firms make it and none keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of E-paper Hologram: A cover on thin electronic paper showing a three-dimensional picture.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

E-paper Hologram

Darwin's Children, Greg Bear · 2003

A cover on thin electronic paper showing a three-dimensional picture.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A picture with depth on a cover is decoration, unlike a full display with depth.

Who is paid. Publishers and packagers would buy it to dress up a cover, and once thin electronic paper exists many printers could supply it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Speaker Chips: Tiny chips in books that read aloud and pitch the book to shoppers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Speaker Chips

Darwin's Children, Greg Bear · 2003

Tiny chips in books that read aloud and pitch the book to shoppers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A chip that makes a book pitch itself from the shelf is one more way to advertise.

Who is paid. Publishers pay to put the chip in their own books, and since the chip is the thing sold and is cheap and simple to copy, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Bee Cam: A tiny self-steering flying camera that follows and films its owner.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bee Cam

City of Pearl, Karen Traviss · 2004

A tiny self-steering flying camera that follows and films its owner.

built in the 2010s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tiny camera that follows and films you is a gadget for hobbyists and people who film themselves.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves and many electronics firms could make small flying cameras, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Implanted Comlink: A radio set embedded under the skin.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Implanted Comlink

Savior, Nancy Kress · 2004

A radio set embedded under the skin.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A phone inside the body that is never lost or left behind would be worth an industry, though surgery would put many people off.

Who is paid. Assuming it is a phone and not only an ear radio, people buy it for themselves, the device can be copied, and the firms that own the phone networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Signal Skin: An alien species' skin that displays written words as its natural way to talk.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Signal Skin

The Algebraist, Iain M Banks · 2004

An alien species' skin that displays written words as its natural way to talk.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a creature's nature or a state of mind, not something made and sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Answerboard: An online question forum where specialists answer queries on a subject.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Answerboard

Rainbows End, Vernor Vinge · 2006

An online question forum where specialists answer queries on a subject.

already existed before the story (the 1980s)

A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A forum where specialists answer questions is a handy service for those with a question, not a need.

Who is paid. People with questions pay or are shown advertisements, and the forum that already has the specialists gathered is hard to copy because the experts go where the askers are.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Librareome Project: A project to destroy physical library books while scanning them into a complete digital collection.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Librareome Project

Rainbows End, Vernor Vinge · 2006

A project to destroy physical library books while scanning them into a complete digital collection.

already existed before the story (the 1990s)

A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Every library book in one searchable collection would be worth an industry to readers and researchers.

Who is paid. Assuming readers pay by fee or subscription as for any library of digital books, the paper copies are destroyed in the scanning, so whoever holds the only complete collection has what nobody else can get.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mobile Advertisements: Commercial messages that appear floating in the open air above public places.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mobile Advertisements

Sagramanda, Alan Dean Foster · 2006

Commercial messages that appear floating in the open air above public places.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Adverts thrown into people's path are one more way to advertise, not a new need.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay, the projector is easy to copy and nobody owns the open air it shines into, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pocket-Sized Ad-Blocker: A carry-around gadget that shields its owner from personalised adverts.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pocket-Sized Ad-Blocker

Sagramanda, Alan Dean Foster · 2006

A carry-around gadget that shields its owner from personalised adverts.

already existed before the story (the 1990s)

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Shielding yourself from pestering adverts is a convenience.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it and many firms could make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Voxcoder: A gadget that scrambles voice calls so nobody can listen in.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Voxcoder

Storm Thief, Chris Wooding · 2006

A gadget that scrambles voice calls so nobody can listen in.

already existed before the story (the 1900s)

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping a call private matters to a narrow set of users with secrets worth guarding.

Who is paid. Firms with secrets buy it, and since the method of garbling speech is well known and easy to copy, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Blacknet: A hidden online network for criminal and hostile collaboration.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Blacknet

Halting State, Charles Stross · 2007

A hidden online network for criminal and hostile collaboration.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A hidden network serves the few who must work out of sight, here criminals and hostile groups, though the law forbids it.

Who is paid. Assuming the groups that use it pay for access, anyone with the know-how can set up a hidden network and the law pursues whoever runs it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Digital Paper Pad: An extremely thin molecular display pad that stores and shows data.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Digital Paper Pad

KOP, Warren Hammond · 2007

An extremely thin molecular display pad that stores and shows data.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A paper-thin pad that stores and shows information is the handheld screen at the centre of personal devices, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Overlay Specs: Glasses that lay digital information over the real world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Overlay Specs

Halting State, Charles Stross · 2007

Glasses that lay digital information over the real world.

built in the 2010s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Information laid over what you see would change many jobs and daily errands; I judged the promise, which is larger than what has been sold.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the glasses can be copied, so the firms that already hold the software and the information shown collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of SPOOKS: A live role-playing game in which ordinary citizens pretend to be secret agents in the real world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

SPOOKS

Halting State, Charles Stross · 2007

A live role-playing game in which ordinary citizens pretend to be secret agents in the real world.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A game of pretend spying in real streets is an amusement for the people who like that sort of play.

Who is paid. Players pay to join, and since the description does not say the game needs a single shared crowd, I assume any organiser could run one like it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Kinagram: Small printed pictures that appear to move.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Kinagram

Anathem, Neal Stephenson · 2008

Small printed pictures that appear to move.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Small printed pictures that seem to move are a novelty.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy them and any printer could make them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Dattoo: A thin electronic patch applied to the skin that swaps information with nearby devices.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dattoo

Mariposa, Greg Bear · 2009

A thin electronic patch applied to the skin that swaps information with nearby devices.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A skin patch that swaps information with nearby devices is a convenience next to a card or a phone.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves and thin printed electronics can be made by many firms, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of EPR Phone: A telephone service secured by quantum physics so any interception of a call becomes detectable.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

EPR Phone

Mariposa, Greg Bear · 2009

A telephone service secured by quantum physics so any interception of a call becomes detectable.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Calls that reveal any eavesdropping matter greatly to a few callers with secrets and little to everyone else.

Who is paid. Firms and officials with secrets pay extra for it, the method comes from known physics that others could use, and the firms that own the phone networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Metallic Display Scroll: A video screen flexible enough to be rolled up like a sheet of paper.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Metallic Display Scroll

Freedom, Daniel Suarez · 2010

A video screen flexible enough to be rolled up like a sheet of paper.

built in 2020, 10 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A screen as thin and bendable as paper could replace much printing and most rigid screens.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it inside the things they own; once shown it can be copied, so the firms with the big screen factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of DNA Publishing: Writing literary text into genetic code so copies multiply along with the molecule.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

DNA Publishing

Spiral, Paul McEuen · 2011

Writing literary text into genetic code so copies multiply along with the molecule.

built in the 2010s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Writing a book into genetic code is a curiosity beside ordinary storage.

Who is paid. Assuming archives and publishers pay for it as long-term storage, many laboratories can write genetic code, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of DNA Music Storage: Storing recorded songs inside non-coding stretches of an organism's genome.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

DNA Music Storage

Year Zero, Rob Reid · 2012

Storing recorded songs inside non-coding stretches of an organism's genome.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping songs inside a living thing's genes is a curiosity beside ordinary storage.

Who is paid. Assuming archives and labels pay for it as long-term storage, many laboratories can write genetic code, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of OLED Body Film: Flexible light-emitting display material worn on or placed under the skin as ornament.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

OLED Body Film

Waste Tide, Chen Qiufan · 2019

Flexible light-emitting display material worn on or placed under the skin as ornament.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Glowing ornament on the skin is a fashion item.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; once shown many firms could make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Burner Modem: A cheap network connection device meant to be discarded after use.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Burner Modem

The Breach, M.T. Hill · 2020

A cheap network connection device meant to be discarded after use.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A network connection you throw away after use serves the few who want not to be traced.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves and it is cheap by design and simple to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Ideas from Technovelgy: Science Fiction Timeline of Inventions (Bill Christensen) (archived copy), as compiled in Not Boring: Sci-Fi Idea Bank (Packy McCormick); names, works, authors and years are theirs and every description is this site's rewording. Categories, arrival decades and profit are judged by AI models, not people. Method