Aubrey de Grey expects scientists to show robustly rejuvenated mice, functionally younger and longer lived, by 2015.
Aubrey de Grey · by 2015
From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005
The Hinxton Group expected human eggs and sperm grown from stem cells to be available by 2018.
Hinxton Group · by 2018
From Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies, Nick Bostrom, 2014
Kurzweil predicts the most diligent, well-informed people will hit longevity escape velocity by about 2030, adding more than a year of life expectancy per year.
From The Singularity Is Nearer, Ray Kurzweil, 2024
James Watson predicted in 2003 that within half a century drugs would let people overeat without gaining weight.
James Watson · by 2053
From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005
Kurzweil expects nanobots and related devices to take over for the heart, blood and digestive system by the early 2030s.
Ray Kurzweil · the 2030s
From Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, Max Tegmark, 2017
Imagined, oldest first
How large a prize, and which seller keeps the rest
Each idea is judged as if it worked the way its story promises: how large a prize it would be, who would pay, and which seller would keep what is left once buyers have had their gain. Choose a cell to see only those ideas; each count is the cards that cell shows. Every placing is a model's judgement, not a reading.
Seller
A vast prize
A large prize
A small prize
No prize
No seller keeps much
·
The maker keeps the rest
·
Existing firms keep the rest
·
Permit holders keep the rest
·
·
·
Nothing is sold
·
·
·
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Suspended Animation (Frigorific Process)
The Senator's Daughter, Edward Page Mitchell · 1879
Freezing a living person so the body can be stored for years and later revived.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Putting people safely into long dormancy would make very long journeys possible and give hospitals time to treat the gravely ill.
Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Monsters Manufactured
The Island of Dr. Moreau, H.G. Wells · 1896
Surgically remaking animals so their bodies and minds approach human form.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. The description gives the remade animals no use that a buyer would pay for, unlike made creatures bred for work or as servants, so there is nothing to price.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vivification
In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897
Keeping a body dormant at normal warmth for centuries and then bringing it back to life.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Putting people safely into long dormancy would make very long journeys possible and give hospitals time to treat the gravely ill.
Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Telemedicine Apparatus
The Machine Stops, E.M. Forster · 1909
Lets doctors see and treat patients remotely over a live connection.
built in the 1960s, about 60 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Seeing a doctor without travelling saves time for a great many patients and lowers the cost of care.
Who is paid. Hospitals and clinics would buy it, and any firm can link a doctor and a patient over a network, so established health providers and network firms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Spinning Mill for Veins (Artificial Organs)
R.U.R., Karel Capek · 1920
Factory production of replacement body parts such as blood vessels and guts.
built in the 1960s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Replacement body parts made in quantity would be worth an industry of their own to the many whose organs fail.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and several firms could run such factories, so established medical makers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Artificial Life
Across Space, Edmond Hamilton · 1926
Builds living organisms out of non-living chemical ingredients.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Building living things from plain chemicals would give farming, medicine and industry organisms made to order.
Who is paid. Firms would buy such organisms for their work, and once the method was known other laboratories could repeat it, so established chemical and drug makers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gyro-Hat
An Experiment in Gyro-Hats, Ellis Parker Butler · 1926
A spinning gyroscope hidden in a hat that keeps its wearer from swaying or falling.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A hat that keeps its wearer steady is a novelty.
Who is paid. Wearers would buy it, and any workshop could fit a spinning wheel into a hat, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Synthetic Babies
A Biological Experiment, David H. Keller · 1928
Grows fertilised eggs into full-term infants outside a mother's body.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Carrying a child outside the body would spare mothers the risks of pregnancy and open parenthood to people who cannot carry a child.
Who is paid. Would-be parents would pay, and other laboratories could copy the chamber once it worked, so established fertility clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Anti-Fatigue Pill
The Silent Destroyer, Henri Dahl Juve · 1929
A drug that keeps people alert and functioning when they have slept too little.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Staying alert on too little sleep is something a great many workers, drivers and students would use.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and stimulants of this kind are old chemistry many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Electro-Culturer
The Ancient Brain, A.G. Stangland · 1929
Applies electrical currents to tissue to speed up how cells multiply and mature.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Making cells multiply faster would speed healing and the growing of tissue for medicine.
Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and laboratories buy it; an electrical device of this kind could be copied, so established medical equipment firms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Human Blood Chlorophyll
The Murgatroyd Experiment, S.P. Meek · 1929
Swapping parts of a person's bloodstream for the green pigment plants use to capture sunlight.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The story promises only a little energy from sunlight, which is a curiosity beside ordinary food.
Who is paid. I assumed people buy it for themselves from clinics; the method could be copied, so clinics already offering such treatments collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Artificial Eyes
Synthetic, Charles Cloukey · 1930
Fully synthetic replacement eyes that match natural ones, built from raw chemical ingredients.
built in the 1940s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Giving sight back to blind people is worth an industry of its own, though most people would never need it.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and once the design was known other device makers could copy it, so established implant makers and eye clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Doctor
Flamingo: A Drama of A.D. 1950, Clarence Edward Heller · 1930
A machine that examines, diagnoses and treats patients in place of a human physician.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A machine that examines, diagnoses and treats would bring a doctor's care within reach of nearly everyone.
Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and clinics buy it; once built others could copy it, so established makers of medical equipment collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Synthetic Life
Synthetic, Charles Cloukey · 1930
Building whole living creatures from raw non-living chemicals rather than breeding them.
built in the 2010s, about 80 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Building living things from plain chemicals would give farming, medicine and industry organisms made to order.
Who is paid. Firms would buy such organisms for their work, and once the method was known other laboratories could repeat it, so established chemical and drug makers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Death Bath
The Revolt of the Machines, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931
A chamber that provides a painless death for people who choose to end their lives.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A painless chosen death matters deeply to the few who seek it, but it is a narrow service.
Who is paid. The person or family would pay, and I assumed the law would let only a few approved providers offer it, so those providers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Evolution Machine
The Man Who Evolved, Edmond Hamilton · 1931
A machine that speeds up biological evolution enormously, pushing an organism through ages of change in hours.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Speeding up evolution would let breeders and laboratories get new living things quickly.
Who is paid. I assumed breeders and laboratories buy it; once the machine existed other equipment makers could copy it, so established laboratory suppliers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Kundrenaline
The Hands of Aten, H.G. Winter · 1931
A drug that restarts a stopped heart even after apparent death.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Restarting a stopped heart after apparent death would save many lives in emergencies.
Who is paid. Hospitals and ambulance services would buy it, and a new drug is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mutation
The Man Who Evolved, Edmond Hamilton · 1931
A living thing that differs from its parents because of a change in its genes.
already existed before the story (the 1900s)
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a natural change in a living thing, not something made or sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vita-Light
If The Sun Died, R.F. Starzl · 1931
An artificial lamp that replaces sunshine's health benefits for people living without daylight.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A lamp standing in for sunshine is a household good for people who lack daylight, which I assumed is a minority.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and lamps are simple things many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Alpha Plus
Brave New World, Aldous Huxley · 1932
Deliberately shapes how human bodies and minds develop before birth to produce superior individuals.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Shaping a child before birth to be healthier and abler is something many parents would pay dearly for.
Who is paid. I assumed parents pay rather than the state as in the story; the methods could be copied, so established fertility clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Artificial Womb
Brave New World, Aldous Huxley · 1932
Grows a human from embryo to full term entirely outside a mother's body in a dedicated chamber.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Carrying a child outside the body would spare mothers the risks of pregnancy and open parenthood to people who cannot carry a child.
Who is paid. Would-be parents would pay, and other laboratories could copy the chamber once it worked, so established fertility clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bokanovsky's Process
Brave New World, Aldous Huxley · 1932
Divides a single fertilised human egg again and again to produce many genetically identical people.
built since, date unclear
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Turning out many identical people to order would give a state its workforce, though few societies would allow it.
Who is paid. In the story the state runs it; the method is simple to copy, so the laboratories and suppliers already serving such hatcheries collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bone-Building Compounds
A Conquest of Two Worlds, Edmond Hamilton · 1932
Drugs that thicken the skeleton so workers can cope with the strain of living under stronger gravity.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It serves only people who work in space or under unusual gravity, which is a niche.
Who is paid. I assumed employers and space carriers buy it for their crews; a new drug is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what little is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Anadrenalin
A Race Through Time, Donald Wandrei · 1933
A drug that damps the body's stress response, slowing the heart and calming the fight-or-flight reaction.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Calming the heart and nerves helps people with certain conditions, a useful but ordinary medicine.
Who is paid. Patients would buy it, and drugs of this kind are old and many firms can make them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Conscious Retarded Animation
A Race Through Time, Donald Wandrei · 1933
Keeps a person awake and aware while their bodily ageing is slowed almost to a halt.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Staying awake while ageing almost stops is, in effect, a way of holding off old age, which nearly everyone would want.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and I assumed it is a new treatment protected from copying for a long while, so its maker keeps much of the gain.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Corporol
A Race Through Time, Donald Wandrei · 1933
A treatment that keeps a person's body intact and working over long periods without decay.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. I took keeping the body intact and working without decay to mean holding off old age, which is about the deepest need there is.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and a new medicine is protected from copying for a long while, so its maker keeps much of the gain.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Drink the Fungi
The Three Suns of Ev, Edwin K. Sloat · 1933
A fictional lethal fungus used as a means of death or judicial punishment in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A deadly fungus is a hazard, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Healing Crystal
A Martian Odyssey, Stanley G. Weinbaum · 1934
A small handheld object destroys sick tissue while sparing the healthy cells around it.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Destroying diseased tissue while sparing the healthy would treat tumours and infections without surgery.
Who is paid. I assumed clinics buy it and, following the story, that the crystals are a rare find that cannot be manufactured, so whoever controls the supply keeps what is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Homorium
The Last Men, Frank Belknap Long, Jr. · 1934
A facility that grows a person from birth to adulthood within twelve months.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Growing a person to adulthood very quickly would let a state fill its ranks at will, which no family would want for a child.
Who is paid. I assumed a government runs it, since the description does not say who would; the method could be copied, so the laboratories and suppliers serving it collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mutant
The 100th Generation, Nat Schachner · 1934
A living thing whose inherited genetic code has changed, giving it traits its parents lacked.
built since, date unclear
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a living thing that arises by chance, not something made or sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot-Surgeon
Rex, Harl Vincent · 1934
An autonomous machine performs operations flawlessly, replacing human hands in the operating theatre.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Flawless operations done by machine would change the costs and reach of surgery.
Who is paid. Hospitals would buy it, and other firms could build such machines, so established makers of surgical equipment collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Xixtline
Parasite Planet, Stanley G. Weinbaum · 1935
A drug from a swampy world that restores youthful vigour to those who take it.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Giving back youthful vigour is in effect holding off old age, which nearly everyone alive would want.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and a new medicine is protected from copying for a long while, so its maker keeps much of the gain.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Nutrient Gelatin Tank
The Isotope Men, Nat Schachner · 1936
A tank of nourishing gel used to grow a new, enhanced kind of human.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Growing enhanced people would be worth an industry if allowed; assumed families are the buyers.
Who is paid. Families pay, and established fertility clinics collect because the tank could be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Shoggoths
At the Mountains of Madness, H.P. Lovecraft · 1936
Engineered shapeshifting creatures bred to do heavy work.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Creatures bred for heavy work would change the costs of building, mining and hauling.
Who is paid. Firms would buy them for labour, and living stock can be bred on by whoever holds some, so established breeders and suppliers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Alien Life Form
The Hothouse Planet, Arthur K. Barnes · 1937
Living organisms that originated beyond Earth.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a living creature in the story, not a technology anyone makes and sells.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Artificial eye
Galactic Patrol, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1937
A man-made eyeball placed in the socket by surgery to restore sight.
already existed before the story (the 1800s)
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Giving sight back to blind people is worth an industry of its own, though most people would never need it.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and once the design was known other device makers could copy it, so established implant makers and eye clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Designed Bacteria
Seeds of the Dusk, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1937
An early story idea of germs engineered to harm a single species and no other.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A germ that harms only a chosen pest would change the cost of protecting crops and controlling disease carriers.
Who is paid. I assumed farmers and pest controllers buy it and not armies; germs can be cultured by many, so established farm chemical firms with the sales networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Brain-Case
Murder in the Void, Edmond Hamilton · 1938
A container that keeps a removed brain alive while it is moved.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Keeping a removed brain alive in transit serves a very rare kind of operation.
Who is paid. Hospitals would buy it, and makers of organ transport equipment could build it, so those firms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cube Being
The Infinite Enemy, Jack Williamson · 1938
A living creature whose body is made of joined block-shaped units.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a living creature in the story, not a technology anyone makes and sells.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Chronovitameter
Lifeline, Robert Heinlein · 1939
Reads a person to reveal when they were born and when they will die.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Knowing the day of your death would upend life insurance and how people plan their lives.
Who is paid. People would pay for a reading, and in the story only the inventor knows how the machine works, so he keeps what is left for as long as the secret holds.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Microsurgery Tool
Masson's Secret, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1939
A tiny instrument that lets surgeons work with extreme precision.
built in the 1960s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Finer surgical instruments are a useful tool for a specialised trade.
Who is paid. Hospitals pay, and established makers of surgical instruments collect since the tool can be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Surgery
Secret of the Buried City, John Russell Fearn · 1939
Machines carry out operations in a high-tech surgical suite.
built in the 2000s, about 70 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Operations done by machine would change the costs and reach of surgery.
Who is paid. Hospitals would buy the suite, and other firms could build such machines, so established makers of surgical equipment collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Merry-Go-Round Life Suspension (Refrigerator Plant)
The Voyage That Lasted 600 Years, Don Wilcox · 1940
Refrigerated equipment that keeps people in a frozen sleep for long stretches.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Frozen sleep for long stretches would open long voyages and change their costs.
Who is paid. Voyage operators pay, and makers of cooling plant collect since the equipment can be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Methuen Treatment
The Exhalted, L. Sprague de Camp · 1940
Shots that raise mental ability.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Raising mental ability would be wanted by a great many people; assumed the gain is real but modest.
Who is paid. People pay for the shots, and the developer keeps the gain because a new medicine is protected from copying.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tectogenetic
Crisis in Utopia, Norman L. Knight · 1940
Deliberately editing genomes to create entirely new kinds of living organisms.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Making new kinds of living things to order would serve farming, medicine and industry.
Who is paid. Firms would buy such organisms for their work, and once the method was known other laboratories could repeat it, so established seed, chemical and drug makers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cold-Rest
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
Chilling a person so their bodily processes slow into a deep dormant rest.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Putting people safely into long dormancy would make very long journeys possible and give hospitals time to treat the gravely ill.
Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cold-Sleep
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
Putting a person into a chilled, slowed-down state like an animal's winter dormancy.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Putting people safely into long dormancy would make very long journeys possible and give hospitals time to treat the gravely ill.
Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dewlog
The Traitor, Kurt von Rachen · 1941
A medicine that, as a side effect, almost wipes out the feeling of hunger.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A medicine that nearly removes hunger would be wanted by a great many people trying to lose weight.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and a new treatment is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps much of the gain.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Howard Families
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
A scheme of selective marriages meant to breed a line of people who live very long.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A scheme of chosen marriages is a private arrangement, not a product anyone can buy.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Moon-Terror
Star of Dreams, Jack Williamson · 1941
A condition that afflicts people living long-term under weak gravity.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is an illness of life under weak gravity, not something made or sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sleep Surrogate
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
A medicine that fully restores the body and brain after missed sleep, as if one had slept.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Standing in fully for sleep would hand nearly every adult many more waking hours, changing how most people live and work.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and a new drug is protected from copying for a long while, so its maker keeps much of the gain.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vanwinkling
The Best-Laid Scheme, L. Sprague de Camp · 1941
Skipping ahead in time by sleeping through the years to wake in a later age.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The name is of the practice, so the thing judged is the long sleep behind it, which belongs with other forms of long dormancy.
Who is paid. I assumed firms that run sleep vaults buy the equipment and charge the sleepers; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run such premises collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Young Blood - New Blood For Old
Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941
Swapping the fluid part of an elderly person's blood for fluid from youthful donors.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Holding off old age meets about the deepest need there is, and nearly everyone alive would want it.
Who is paid. People would pay for themselves; unlike a drug this is a procedure any clinic could learn, so established clinics and blood services that can find donors collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gravanol
QRM - Interplanetary, George O. Smith · 1942
A drug that helps the body withstand strong acceleration during spaceflight.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It serves only people who work in space or under unusual gravity, which is a niche.
Who is paid. I assumed employers and space carriers buy it for their crews; a new drug is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what little is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gravitation Paralysis
The World With A Thousand Moons, Edmond Hamilton · 1942
A disease that strikes travelers who move abruptly from feeble to heavy gravity.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a disease, not a technology.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sobriety Ray
The Twonky, Lewis Padgett · 1942
A beam of light that instantly clears intoxication from anyone it strikes.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Clearing drunkenness in a moment is a convenience for drinkers and those who deal with them.
Who is paid. I assumed drinkers and bars buy it; unlike a sobering pill this is a device others could copy, so established makers of such equipment collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Eternity Drug
Far Centaurus, A.E. van Vogt · 1944
A medicine that puts someone into a dormant sleep lasting decades, used to survive very long voyages.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Sleeping through a very long voyage would make such journeys possible, as with other forms of long dormancy.
Who is paid. I assumed carriers buy it for their crews; unlike a sleep chamber this is a drug, which is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Life Blanket
Ogre, Clifford Simak · 1944
A living mat of plant life that gains awareness when worn and serves its host.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a living creature in the story, not a technology anyone makes and sells.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mal de Void
Off the Beam, George O. Smith · 1944
Nausea and disorientation that travelers suffer in weightless flight.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a sickness travellers suffer, not something made or sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vitalizer
The Soma Racks, Margaret St. Clair · 1947
A commercial pick-me-up sold to people who feel worn out.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A lift for people who feel worn out is something a great many would buy.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and I assumed it is a stimulant of an old kind many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Emergency Treatment Tank (Chamber)
Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949
A sealed pod that heals and regrows an injured body.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Regrowing lost or ruined tissue would change what hospitals can do for the badly injured.
Who is paid. I assumed hospitals buy and run it; once it worked other makers could copy it, so established medical equipment firms and hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Plastiskin
Unforeseen, Roger P. Graham · 1949
A synthetic covering that makes a prosthetic limb look like real flesh.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A lifelike cover for an artificial limb is a comfort for a limited group.
Who is paid. Wearers pay, and established makers of artificial limbs collect since the covering is easy to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Space Scurvy (Kenoalgia)
Sacred Martian Pig (Idris' Pig), Margaret St. Clair · 1949
A fictional illness that wears down people on long space journeys.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is an illness, not a technology.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Anti-Tri-D Shot
The Morning of the Day They Did It, E.B. White · 1950
An injection that protects people against a fictional lethal pesticide.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It protects against a single poison, a narrow need however urgent.
Who is paid. I assumed a government buys it to protect the whole population; any vaccine maker could produce it, so the firms that already hold such supply contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Nucleocat Cureall
Contagion, Katherine MacLean · 1950
A universal treatment that kills every living cell except the patient's own.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A cure for every infection would meet a basic need for most of humanity.
Who is paid. Patients and health services pay, and the developer keeps the gain because a new medicine is protected from copying.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Regeneration Tank
Contagion, Katherine MacLean · 1950
A body-sized tank of nourishing fluid that keeps a patient alive while curing illness.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A tank that sustains a patient while curing illness would change the costs of hospital care.
Who is paid. Hospitals would buy it, and other equipment makers could build the same tank, so established makers of hospital equipment collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Shipboard Medical Treatment
Contagion, Katherine MacLean · 1950
A quarantine and decontamination routine for crews coming home from other worlds.
built in the 1960s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Clearing returning crews matters only to those who fly to other worlds, which is a niche.
Who is paid. I assumed space carriers pay for their own crews; a routine can be followed by anyone, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Underpeople
The Ballad of Lost C'Mell, Cordwainer Smith · 1950
Animals engineered into humanlike bodies and minds to serve as a lower social caste.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The name is of the people, so the thing judged is the making of servants from animals, which would give a state its workforce to order, though few societies would allow it.
Who is paid. I assumed the state runs the making, as with other ways of turning out people to order; the method could be copied, so the laboratories and suppliers serving it collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cold-Sleep
Between Planets, Robert Heinlein · 1951
Putting a person into a deep dormant state, like an animal wintering, for long journeys.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Putting people safely into long dormancy would make very long journeys possible and give hospitals time to treat the gravely ill.
Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Genetic Engineering
Dragon's Island, Jack Williamson · 1951
Editing an organism's heredity by changing its DNA directly.
built in the 1970s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Changing heredity directly reaches into food, medicine and industry, and so touches how most people eat and are treated.
Who is paid. Farms, drug makers and laboratories pay for it, and the basic method is open to any laboratory, so established seed and drug firms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ontogenetic Adaptation
The End of the Line, James Schmitz · 1951
An instant change to a person's biology that lets them digest plants from other worlds.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Fitting settlers to eat local plants serves a narrow group; judged as the treatment that makes the change.
Who is paid. Settlement ventures pay, and established medical firms collect since others could offer the same treatment.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Surrogate Skin
The Puppet Masters, Robert Heinlein · 1951
A spray that coats a wound with an artificial covering standing in for skin.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Man-made skin helps people with burns and bad wounds, which is an important but narrow part of medicine.
Who is paid. Hospitals and clinics would buy it, and the firms that already supply wound dressings could all make it, so they collect a modest margin.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Suspensine
Duel on Syrtis, Poul Anderson · 1951
A drug that slows the body so much a person can briefly endure exposure to vacuum.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A small prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It serves only people who work in space, which is a niche.
Who is paid. I assumed employers and space carriers buy it for their crews; a new drug is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what little is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Medical Use for Weightlessness
Accidental Flight, W.F. Wallace · 1952
Treating patients in orbit, where the absence of weight eases strain on the body.
built in the 1960s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Care in orbit helps a narrow set of patients who can afford the trip.
Who is paid. Patients pay for the stay, and owners of launch fleets and stations collect because they hold what the service needs.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Panatrope
Surface Tension, James Blish · 1952
Reshaping people's heredity so their descendants can live on hostile alien worlds.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Shaping settlers for hostile worlds would be worth a whole programme of settlement.
Who is paid. A government pays because it seeds whole peoples, unlike a treatment for a few settlers, and its usual contractors collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Plastissue
Accidental Flight, W.F. Wallace · 1952
Man-made living tissue used to replace or repair bodies.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Man-made living tissue for repair would change the cost of surgery.
Who is paid. Hospitals pay, and established medical suppliers collect because tissue multiplies and a sample is enough to copy it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Ullran Enunciator
Uller Uprising, H. Beam Piper · 1952
A speech aid worn by people so they can pronounce the sounds of an alien tongue.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It helps only the few people who must speak with an alien race.
Who is paid. I assumed traders and officials who deal with the aliens buy it; it is a simple worn device many firms could make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Electronic-Eyed Snake
Fahrenheit 451, Ray Bradbury · 1953
A machine with a camera-tipped tube that empties a patient's stomach with little human help.
built in the 1960s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A machine for emptying a stomach handles a single emergency procedure.
Who is paid. Hospitals and ambulance services would buy it, and several equipment makers could build it, so established makers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Psyche Tester
Colony, Philip K. Dick · 1953
A machine that assesses a person's mental health without a human clinician.
built in the 2010s, about 60 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Judging mental health by machine would change the costs of one whole branch of care.
Who is paid. I assumed clinics and employers buy it; others could build the same machine, so established makers of medical equipment collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Short-Wave Surgical Knife
Boomerang, Eric Frank Russell · 1953
Surgery done with focused energy that cuts inside the body without an incision.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Operating inside the body without opening it would change the costs and risks of much surgery.
Who is paid. Hospitals would buy it, and other firms could build such an instrument, so established makers of surgical equipment collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Space Phobia
Let 'em Breathe Space!, Lester del Rey · 1953
A breakdown in which space crews can no longer bear life beyond Earth.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is an illness of space crews, not a technology.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Space Weakness
Space Tug, Murray Leinster · 1953
The loss of muscle and bone strength people suffer after long spells without weight.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a harm the body suffers in space, not a technology.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Anti-Gerasone
Tomorrow and Tomorrow and Tomorrow, Kurt Vonnegut, Jr. · 1954
An inexpensive drug that halts ageing, sold over the counter at ordinary shops.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Holding off old age meets about the deepest need there is, and nearly everyone alive would want it.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and the story says it is cheap and sold in ordinary shops, which I took to mean many can make it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Protoplast
Dawn of the Demigods, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1954
A synthetic living substance hardier than natural cell matter.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A hardier living material could serve many trades that grow or use living matter.
Who is paid. I assumed firms buy it as a working material; a living substance can be grown on from a sample, so established makers of biological supplies collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Artigraft
Solar Lottery, Philip K. Dick · 1955
Manufactured skin used to repair wounds and burns.
built in the 1960s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Man-made skin helps people with burns and bad wounds, which is an important but narrow part of medicine.
Who is paid. Hospitals and clinics would buy it, and the firms that already supply wound dressings could all make it, so they collect a modest margin.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Surgeon-Hand
War Veteran, Philip K. Dick · 1955
A precise robotic operating tool fitted to the end of a surgeon's arm.
built in the 2000s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A finer tool on the surgeon's own arm improves some operations but leaves the surgeon in place, so it is a niche.
Who is paid. Hospitals would buy it, and other toolmakers could copy it, so established makers of surgical instruments collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Alcoholic Reliever
Bad Medicine, Robert Sheckley · 1956
A machine that frees its user from craving alcohol.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Ending the craving for alcohol would lift a heavy burden from a great many families.
Who is paid. I assumed it is a home appliance people buy for themselves; other makers could copy the machine, so established appliance makers and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Biltong Life Form
Pay for the Printer, Philip K. Dick · 1956
Alien creatures that produce manufactured goods by organically copying originals.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a living creature in the story, not a technology anyone makes and sells.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Home Therapy Appliances, Inc.
Bad Medicine, Robert Sheckley · 1956
A shop selling a range of machines for treating mental troubles at home.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Machines that treat troubles of the mind at home would serve a great many people, though the shop itself is no invention.
Who is paid. People would buy the machines for themselves, and other makers could copy them, so established appliance makers and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Internal Body Power Pack
The Stars My Destination, Alfred Bester · 1956
A tiny energy cell placed inside the body to run implanted devices.
built in the 1960s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A power cell inside the body is a part for other implants, not a product people seek for itself.
Who is paid. Makers of implants would buy it, and several battery makers could supply it, so established suppliers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Living Advertising Character
The Stars My Destination, Alfred Bester · 1956
Surgically altering a person to become a walking embodiment of a firm's mascot.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the surgery that makes them, a niche form of advertising.
Who is paid. Firms pay for the surgery, and other surgeons could do the same work, so established cosmetic clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mechanotherapy
Bad Medicine, Robert Sheckley · 1956
Treatment delivered by a machine that relieves or cures a person's dependence on drink.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Ending dependence on drink would serve a great many people and families.
Who is paid. Drinkers and their families pay, and makers of medical machines collect because the machine can be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mutated Kodiak Bears
Exploration Team, Murray Leinster · 1956
Large bears bred to be smarter so they can guard and befriend human explorers.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2080s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Clever guard bears serve a narrow trade of explorers, unlike the pet dogs in this family.
Who is paid. Exploring ventures pay, and because the bears breed, established animal breeders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Regen-Buds
The Velvet Glove, Harry Harrison · 1956
Small clusters of cells that can be grown out into replacement arms or legs.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Growing back a lost arm or leg would be worth an industry of its own to those who need it.
Who is paid. I assumed hospitals buy the cells and do the growing; living cells can be grown on by others, so established medical suppliers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Stasis (Cold Sleep, Hibernation)
The Door Into Summer, Robert Heinlein · 1956
Putting people into suspended animation for years at a time.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Holding people in suspension for long spans would make very long voyages possible, an industry of its own.
Who is paid. I assumed carriers buy the equipment for crews and passengers; others could build it, so established makers of such equipment collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Anti-agathic drugs
Cities in Flight, James Blish · 1957
Medicines that hold off death from old age with no set limit.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Holding off old age meets about the deepest need there is, and nearly everyone alive would want it.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and a new medicine is protected from copying for a long while, so its maker keeps much of the gain.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Death-Rattle
The Unreconstructed M, Philip K. Dick · 1957
A device that sends out an alert when its wearer's brain stops functioning.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. An alert when the wearer's brain stops is a narrow safety device.
Who is paid. Wearers would buy it, and it is a simple sensor with a transmitter that many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Oxygen Pill
Get Out Of Our Skies!, E.K. Jarvis · 1957
A tablet that supplies the body's oxygen so the user need not breathe.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Doing without breathing gear would change the costs of diving, rescue and space work.
Who is paid. Employers in those trades pay, and the developer keeps the gain because a new medicine is protected from copying.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Phymech
Wanted in Surgery, Harlan Ellison · 1957
A machine doctor that examines and treats patients.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A machine doctor would bring care to most people at lower cost.
Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and clinics buy it; once built others could copy it, so established makers of medical equipment collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Prosthetic Robotic Arm (Thought-Attuned)
Bleekman's Planet, Ivar Jorgensen · 1957
A removable mechanical arm operated directly by the wearer's nerve signals.
built in the 2010s, about 60 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A working arm moved by thought restores much to people who have lost a limb, but they are a small share of everyone.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and several firms could build such limbs, so established makers of artificial limbs collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hypo Arm
Simulated Trainer, Harry Harrison · 1958
A robotic arm that gives patients their medicine by injection without a nurse.
built in the 2010s, about 60 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Giving injections without a nurse saves a little labour on a ward.
Who is paid. Hospitals would buy it, and several equipment makers could build it, so established makers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Clone
The Clone, Theodore L Thomas · 1959
A group of organisms all descended without sex from one parent.
built in 1996, 37 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The name is of the offspring, so the thing judged is the copying of a chosen plant or animal without mating, which lets breeders repeat their best stock exactly.
Who is paid. I assumed breeders and growers pay for the copying; any laboratory can learn the method, so established breeders and seed firms with the stock and the sales networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Neodog
Starship Troopers, Robert Heinlein · 1959
A dog bred through genetic engineering to be smarter and able to talk.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2080s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A talking, cleverer dog is a prized pet or working animal, which is a niche.
Who is paid. Owners pay, and because the dogs breed, established breeders collect instead of the originator.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Art-Derm
Dr. Futurity, Philip K. Dick · 1960
Synthetic skin applied to the body as a spray.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Man-made skin helps people with burns and bad wounds, which is an important but narrow part of medicine.
Who is paid. Hospitals and clinics would buy it, and the firms that already supply wound dressings could all make it, so they collect a modest margin.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bacteria-Destroying Radiation
Dr. Futurity, Philip K. Dick · 1960
A germ-killing ray that keeps an operating area free of microbes.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Keeping an operating area free of germs is useful, but other ways of doing it already exist.
Who is paid. Hospitals would buy it, and germ-killing lamps are simple things many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cold-Pack
Dr. Futurity, Philip K. Dick · 1960
A way of keeping people chilled and preserved for an unlimited time.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Putting people safely into long dormancy would make very long journeys possible and give hospitals time to treat the gravely ill.
Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dixon Pump
Dr. Futurity, Philip K. Dick · 1960
A stopgap machine that keeps blood flowing in place of the heart.
built in the 1960s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A pump that stands in for the heart for a short while serves certain operations, a narrower use than a lasting replacement organ.
Who is paid. Hospitals would buy it, and several equipment makers can build such pumps, so established makers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Transdermal Drug Capsule
Vulcan's Hammer, Philip K. Dick · 1960
A medicine pod that releases its dose through the skin when pressed against it.
built in 1979, 19 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A pod that passes its dose through the skin is a handy way of taking a medicine, not a new medicine.
Who is paid. Patients would buy it, and any drug firm can put its medicines in such a pod, so established drug makers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dromozoa
A Planet Named Shayol, Cordwainer Smith · 1961
Fictional alien organisms on a prison world in the story, whose effects are exploited for medical harvesting.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a living creature in the story, not a technology anyone makes and sells.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gobathian
Time is the Simplest Thing, Clifford Simak · 1961
An alien medical method that restores the whole body after catastrophic injury.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Regrowing lost or ruined tissue would change what hospitals can do for the badly injured.
Who is paid. I assumed hospitals buy and run it; once it worked other makers could copy it, so established medical equipment firms and hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Alcodote
Space Viking, H. Beam Piper · 1962
A drug that lets a person drink alcohol while staying sober.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Staying sober while drinking is a convenience for drinkers, not a need.
Who is paid. Drinkers would buy it for themselves, and a new drug is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Freezebox
Think Blue, Count Two, Cordwainer Smith · 1962
A chamber holding travellers in long suspended sleep during interstellar trips.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Putting people safely into long dormancy would make very long journeys possible and give hospitals time to treat the gravely ill.
Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Rabbit-Paper
The Game Players of Titan, Philip K. Dick · 1963
A paper strip that instantly shows if someone is pregnant.
built in the 1970s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. An instant home answer on pregnancy is a real convenience, though each buyer needs it only now and then.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves in ordinary shops, and many firms can make such strips, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Artif-Org
Cantata 140, Philip K. Dick · 1964
A machine replacement for a human body organ.
built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Replacement organs on demand would end the wait for donors and support an industry of their own.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and other firms could copy the design, so the established makers of medical implants and the hospitals that fit them collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Skin Toning
The Star King, Jack Vance · 1964
Temporarily recolouring the skin with cosmetic treatments.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A passing change of skin colour is decoration, not need.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and many makers of cosmetics could offer it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Surgical Hand
Clans of the Alphane Moon, Philip K. Dick · 1964
A robotic hand designed for performing operations.
built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A machine hand that operates would cut the cost and raise the precision of surgery.
Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and clinics buy it; several firms could build it once it worked, so established medical equipment makers and hospital groups collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Weary Deep-Sleep
Lies, Inc., Philip K. Dick · 1964
An old-style long-duration suspended sleep.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The description calls it old-style, but it still puts people into long dormancy, which would make very long journeys possible.
Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Autodoc
World of Ptavvs, Larry Niven · 1965
A robot doctor that diagnoses and operates without human help.
built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A machine that diagnoses and operates without a doctor would bring skilled care to nearly everyone and remake medicine.
Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and clinics buy it; with the needed machine intelligence widely available several firms could build it, so established medical equipment makers and hospital groups collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bubblehead
The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965
Someone who has had a therapy that enlarges the front of the brain.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the therapy that enlarges the front of the brain, which I assumed sharpens the mind and so would be wanted by a great many people.
Who is paid. People would pay for it themselves, and I assumed other clinics could learn the therapy, so established clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cardioplate
Repent Harlequin' Said the Ticktockman, Harlan Ellison · 1965
A fictional heart-regulating device the state uses to shorten lives as punishment.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.
Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Implanted Steel Teeth
The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965
Artificial teeth anchored permanently in the jaw.
built since, date unclear
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Teeth fixed for good in the jaw are wanted by a great many people who lose their own.
Who is paid. Patients pay, and many firms make the parts and dentists everywhere can fit them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Interchangeable Hands
The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965
Swappable prosthetic hands built for particular tasks.
built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Hands made for particular tasks help people who have lost a hand, and they are a small share of everyone.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and several firms could build such limbs, so established makers of artificial limbs collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Luxvid Eyes (Jensen Wide-Angle)
The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965
Implanted artificial eyes with fixed wide-angle vision.
built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Restoring sight with an implanted eye would be worth an industry.
Who is paid. Patients pay, with insurers behind them, and makers of medical implants collect since rivals could copy the eye.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Medical Mech
Warrior, Gordon R. Dickson · 1965
A robot that keeps injured people alive in emergencies.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A robot that keeps the injured alive would change emergency care.
Who is paid. Ambulance services and hospitals pay, and makers of medical equipment collect since the robot can be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Rachag
Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965
A stimulant drink or drug with effects similar to caffeine.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The description promises nothing beyond what ordinary stimulant drinks already give, so it adds a convenience.
Who is paid. Drinkers would buy it for themselves, and stimulants of this kind are old and made by many, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Steel Teeth
The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965
Metal teeth fused to the jawbone.
built since, date unclear
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Teeth fixed for good in the jaw are wanted by a great many people who lose their own.
Who is paid. Patients pay, and many firms make the parts and dentists everywhere can fit them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wakeshot
Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965
An injection that instantly rouses a sleeper to full alertness.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Rousing a sleeper at once is a narrow use beside staying awake for long stretches.
Who is paid. I assumed people buy it for themselves; stimulants of this kind are old chemistry many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cellphone Tranquilizing Spray
The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966
A phone that automatically dispenses a mild calming drug to its owner.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A calming puff from a phone is a convenience added to something people already carry.
Who is paid. People would buy it as part of a phone, and any phone maker could add it, so established phone makers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Chemelectric Afferent Nerve-Analogues
This Immortal, Roger Zelazny · 1966
An engineered artificial skin that can sense touch.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Skin that feels touch adds sensation to man-made skin, which stays a narrow part of medicine.
Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and makers of artificial limbs buy it; other materials firms could copy it, so established suppliers collect a modest margin.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Corpsicle
The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966
A frozen person stored in hope of future revival.
built in the 1960s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the freezing and keeping of the dead, and the description promises only a hope of revival, which few would pay much for.
Who is paid. Families would pay for the keeping, and other firms could freeze and store bodies too, so established funeral firms with premises and trust collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Death-Reversal Equipment
The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966
Revival equipment that restores people killed in formal duels.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Bringing back people who have just been killed would change emergency medicine.
Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and duelling grounds buy the equipment; other makers could copy it, so established medical equipment firms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Decorative Implant
Babel-17, Samuel R. Delany · 1966
Under-skin ornaments the wearer can control by thought.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Ornaments under the skin are fashion.
Who is paid. Wearers would buy them, and many workshops could make and fit them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ebony Teeth
Now Wait For Last Year, Philip K. Dick · 1966
Artificial teeth coloured entirely black.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Black false teeth are a fashion, which sets them apart from plain replacement teeth.
Who is paid. Wearers would buy them, and any dental workshop can make them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Morgue (Recall Stage)
Babel-17, Samuel R. Delany · 1966
A facility that stores frozen bodies and brings them back when needed.
built in the 1960s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Storing the frozen and bringing them back would be worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Families pay for the keeping, and firms that already run death care and cold storage collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Morphogen
Fantastic Voyage (Novel), Isaac Asimov · 1966
A drug that reduces how much sleep a person needs, though not entirely.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Needing less sleep would be wanted by most workers, though the drug only trims the need.
Who is paid. People pay for the drug, and the developer keeps the gain because a new medicine is protected from copying.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ro-Womb
The Dream Master (He Who Shapes), Roger Zelazny · 1966
An enclosing chamber that wraps a patient during mind-linked therapy.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A chamber for one kind of therapy serves a narrow group of patients.
Who is paid. I assumed clinics buy it; the chamber could be copied, so established makers of clinic equipment collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Simicolor
This Immortal, Roger Zelazny · 1966
Artificial dye for colouring the body.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Colouring the body is decoration, not need.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and dyes are easy for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Specialized Prosthetic Arm
The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966
Interchangeable artificial arms, each suited to a different job.
built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Arms made for particular jobs help people who have lost an arm, and they are a small share of everyone.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and several firms could build such limbs, so established makers of artificial limbs collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sprung-Samser Treatment
This Immortal, Roger Zelazny · 1966
A therapy that lengthens human lifespan.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A longer life meets about the deepest need there is, and nearly everyone alive would want it.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and I assumed it is protected like a new medicine, so its maker keeps much of the gain.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Surgical Homeostatic Unit
Now Wait For Last Year, Philip K. Dick · 1966
A self-directed robot that performs operations on patients.
built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A robot that operates by itself would cut the cost of surgery, though it changes only that part of medicine.
Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and clinics buy it; several firms could build it once it worked, so established medical equipment makers and hospital groups collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
TW-55 Spy
Babel-17, Samuel R. Delany · 1966
Voluntary control over one's own facial features.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the treatment that lets someone reshape their own face, which serves a narrow trade in spying.
Who is paid. I assumed spy services are the buyers, so a government pays; the description does not say the method is a secret, so the firms that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Transparent Platisplasm Cage
Babel-17, Samuel R. Delany · 1966
A clear artificial framework replacing a shoulder joint.
built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A replacement joint matters greatly to people who need it, but they are a small share of everyone.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and several firms could build such joints, so established makers of artificial limbs and joints collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vision Implant
The Dream Master (He Who Shapes), Roger Zelazny · 1966
A light sensor implanted in the head that gives blind people partial sight.
built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Giving even partial sight back to blind people is worth an industry of its own, though most people would never need it.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and once the design was known other device makers could copy it, so established implant makers and eye clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vivatape
Babel-17, Samuel R. Delany · 1966
A dressing that closes wounds seamlessly and aids healing around skin implants.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A dressing that closes wounds cleanly helps hospitals and fitters of implants, which is a narrow part of medicine.
Who is paid. Hospitals and clinics would buy it, and the firms that already supply wound dressings could all make it, so they collect a modest margin.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dolphin's Hands
Handicap, Larry Niven · 1967
Artificial manipulators that let dolphins handle objects.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Hands for dolphins serve a very small group of users.
Who is paid. I assumed firms and researchers who work with dolphins buy them; simple gripping tools can be made by many, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Organlegging
The Jigsaw Man, Larry Niven · 1967
A fictional black market in stolen human organs, central to the story's crime.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. The thing named is the theft of organs from unwilling people, a crime with victims and not a product, and replacement organs themselves are judged elsewhere in this category.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold that a buyer may have, unlike a street drug its users choose to buy, so no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Scientific Reincarnation
Lord of Light, Roger Zelazny · 1967
Moving a person's mind into a fresh, healthy body.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A fresh healthy body for the same mind answers the deepest need there is, and nearly everyone would want it.
Who is paid. People would pay for themselves; I assumed it is a procedure other clinics could learn and not a protected drug, so established hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sleepshop
Logan's Run, William Nolan (w/G.C. Johnson · 1967
A fictional facility for voluntary death in the story's society.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The name is of a place, so the thing judged is the service it offers, which matters deeply to the few who seek it but is narrow.
Who is paid. The person or family would pay, and I assumed the law would let only a few approved providers offer it, so those providers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sub-microscopic Medical Robots
These Savage Futurians, Philip E. High · 1967
Microscopic machines that patrol the blood and destroy germs.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Machines in the blood that clear out germs would spare nearly everyone from infectious illness.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and unlike a single protected medicine a machine can be built another way by rivals, so established drug and device makers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Artificially Grown Organs
A Gift From Earth, Larry Niven · 1968
Replacement body parts cultivated in a lab for transplant.
built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Organs grown to order would end the wait for donors and support an industry of their own.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and other firms could copy the design, so the established makers of medical implants and the hospitals that fit them collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cheekplate Container
A Specter is Haunting Texas, Fritz Leiber · 1968
A compartment on a support frame holding medicines for coping with strong gravity.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A holder for pills on a support frame is a minor fitting.
Who is paid. Wearers would buy it, and anyone can make a small container, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Exoskeleton (Medical)
A Specter is Haunting Texas, Fritz Leiber · 1968
A powered frame that helps very tall people raised in low gravity move under strong gravity.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. As described it helps a small group of people raised in low gravity to move about.
Who is paid. Wearers would buy it, and several firms could build powered frames, so established makers of mobility aids collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hibernaculum
2001: A Space Odyssey, Arthur C. Clarke · 1968
A compact pod that keeps a traveller in suspended sleep through long voyages.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Putting people safely into long dormancy would make very long journeys possible and give hospitals time to treat the gravely ill.
Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Artiforg
Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969
A manufactured replacement organ installed to keep the body working.
built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Replacement organs on demand would end the wait for donors and support an industry of their own.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and other firms could copy the design, so the established makers of medical implants and the hospitals that fit them collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Automatic Vein Finder
The Andromeda Strain, Michael Crichton · 1969
A machine that locates blood vessels so needles can be placed without guesswork.
built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Finding a vein without guesswork is a small convenience for nurses and patients.
Who is paid. Hospitals and clinics would buy it, and it is a simple device many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Axolotl Tank
Dune Messiah, Frank Herbert · 1969
A biological vessel used to regrow or remodel living tissue.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Regrowing lost or ruined tissue would change what hospitals can do for the badly injured.
Who is paid. I assumed hospitals buy and run it; once it worked other makers could copy it, so established medical equipment firms and hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cold-Pac Bin
Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969
A coffin-like chamber that keeps the recently dead in a suspended, semi-conscious state.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Letting families go on speaking with the newly dead is something a great many would pay for.
Who is paid. Families would pay for the keeping, and I assumed the chambers can be copied, so established funeral firms with premises and trust collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Crosswell Tape Worm
Super-Toys Last All Summer Long, Brian Aldiss · 1969
An engineered gut organism that lets people eat freely without putting on weight.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Eating freely without gaining weight is something a great many people would pay for.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and I assumed it is sold as a medicine and protected from copying for a while as new medicines are, so its maker keeps much of the gain.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Diagnostat
The Man in the Maze, Robert Silverberg · 1969
An automated medical machine that identifies and treats nearly any illness.
built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A machine that identifies and treats nearly any illness would bring skilled care to nearly everyone and remake medicine.
Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and clinics buy it; with the needed machine intelligence widely available several firms could build it, so established medical equipment makers and hospital groups collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Electronic Body Analyzer
The Andromeda Strain, Michael Crichton · 1969
An automated machine that examines and diagnoses patients without a physician.
built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Diagnosing patients without a physician would cut the cost of medicine, though unlike a full robot doctor it does not treat.
Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and clinics buy it; with the needed machine intelligence widely available several firms could build it, so established medical equipment makers and hospital groups collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Face Dancer
Dune Messiah, Frank Herbert · 1969
People engineered to change their appearance and impersonate others.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the engineering that lets a person change appearance and pass as someone else, which serves a narrow trade in spying.
Who is paid. I assumed spy services are the buyers, so a government pays; the description does not say the method is a secret, so the firms that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ghola
Dune Messiah, Frank Herbert · 1969
A person regrown from a dead individual's preserved cells.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the regrowing of a dead person from kept cells, which many bereaved families would pay dearly for.
Who is paid. I assumed families pay and that other laboratories could learn the method once it worked, so established fertility and tissue laboratories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Moratorium
Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969
A facility that stores the dead cold while keeping their minds dimly active.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Keeping the dead within reach of their families would be worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Families pay for the keeping, and firms that already run death care and cold storage collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Physiognomic Template
Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969
A technique for reshaping one's facial features whenever desired.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Changing your face at will would be worth a large part of the beauty trade.
Who is paid. People pay, and established cosmetic clinics and brands collect since the method can be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tleilaxu Eyes (Metal Eyes)
Dune Messiah, Frank Herbert · 1969
Surgically fitted mechanical eyes that replace damaged natural ones.
built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Giving sight back to blind people is worth an industry of its own, though most people would never need it.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and once the design was known other device makers could copy it, so established implant makers and eye clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tranquilizing Gum
Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969
Chewing gum laced with a calming drug.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A calming drug in chewing gum is an ordinary medicine in a handy form.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and calming drugs of this kind are old and many firms can make them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ultraflash
The Andromeda Strain, Michael Crichton · 1969
A light-pulse device that disinfects skin.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Cleaning skin of germs is useful, but other ways of doing it already exist.
Who is paid. Hospitals and laboratories would buy it, and germ-killing lamps are simple things many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Killalc Pills
The Stainless Steel Rat's Revenge, Harry Harrison · 1970
Tablets that cancel the effects of drinking alcohol.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Staying sober while drinking is a convenience for drinkers, not a need.
Who is paid. Drinkers would buy it for themselves, and a new drug is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Selektrogel
And All The Stars A Stage, James Blish · 1971
A shop-bought gel that lets parents choose a baby's sex at conception.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Choosing a baby's sex at home is something a great many parents would pay for.
Who is paid. Parents buy it in shops, and I assumed it is protected like a new medicine, so its maker keeps what is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Artificial Muscles
Cyborg, Martin Caidin · 1972
Synthetic fibres that stand in for natural muscle.
built since, date unclear
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Fibres that pull like muscle would serve artificial limbs and, I assumed, machines of many kinds as well.
Who is paid. Makers of limbs and machines would buy the fibres, and other materials firms could learn to spin them, so established materials makers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Atlotl/Gibiril Regimen
The Godmakers, Frank Herbert · 1972
A therapy said to redirect bodily energy to help regrow lost tissue.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Regrowing lost or ruined tissue would change what hospitals can do for the badly injured.
Who is paid. I assumed hospitals buy and run it; once it worked other makers could copy it, so established medical equipment firms and hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bionic Arm
Cyborg, Martin Caidin · 1972
A prosthetic arm that moves and responds much like a natural one.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A limb that works like a natural one matters greatly to people who have lost one, but they are a small share of everyone.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and several firms could build such limbs, so established makers of artificial limbs collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bionic Legs
Cyborg, Martin Caidin · 1972
Rebuilt legs that outperform the natural ones.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Legs better than natural ones matter greatly to people who have lost theirs, and I assumed few healthy people would swap their own.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and several firms could build such limbs, so established makers of artificial limbs collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Crechepod
The Godmakers, Frank Herbert · 1972
An enclosed medical capsule that sustains life and regrows damaged tissue.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Regrowing lost or ruined tissue would change what hospitals can do for the badly injured.
Who is paid. I assumed hospitals buy and run it; once it worked other makers could copy it, so established medical equipment firms and hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cryosleep
Flight of Exiles, Ben Bova · 1972
Freezing a living body to pause its life processes until revival.
built since, date unclear
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Putting people safely into long dormancy would make very long journeys possible and give hospitals time to treat the gravely ill.
Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cyborg
Cyborg, Martin Caidin · 1972
A person fused with machine parts that extend the body's abilities.
built since, date unclear
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the fitting of machine parts to the body, which taken together covers replacement eyes, limbs and organs and is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and other firms could copy the parts, so established implant makers and the hospitals that fit them collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hubrizine
We Can Build You, Philip K. Dick · 1972
A pill that makes the user more awake and puts them in a brighter mood.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A pill for wakefulness and a brighter mood would be used by a great many people.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and stimulants of this kind are old chemistry many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Procreative Stump
Hellstrom's Hive, Frank Herbert · 1972
A grim fictional practice of keeping a body alive solely to carry pregnancies.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a grim practice nobody may buy or use.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Artificial Gravity-Assisted Childbirth
Time Enough For Love, Robert Heinlein · 1973
Using a generated gravity field to ease and speed up giving birth.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Easier births would be welcome, but this is a side use of a gravity machine and other aids to birth already exist.
Who is paid. I assumed hospitals buy it; whoever makes gravity machines for other uses could supply it, so those firms and the hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ultramicrominiature Waldo
Time Enough For Love, Robert Heinlein · 1973
A device that scales a surgeon's hand motions down to tiny precise movements.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A device that makes the surgeon's own movements finer improves some operations but leaves the surgeon in place, so it is a niche.
Who is paid. Hospitals would buy it, and other toolmakers could copy it, so established makers of surgical instruments collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
KR-3
Flow My Tears, The Policeman Said, Philip K. Dick · 1974
A fictional mind-altering drug that plays a key role in the story.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The description gives only that it alters the mind, so I assumed it would be taken for pleasure by a few.
Who is paid. Users would buy it, most likely unlawfully, and such drugs can be made by many hands, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Numbitol
The Mote in God's Eye, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1974
A cream or spray that numbs the skin.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A cream that numbs the skin is a convenience of a kind already widely made.
Who is paid. Shoppers pay, and many firms can make it so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Placental Decanters
The Girl Who Was Plugged In, James Tiptree, Jr. · 1974
Engineered flawless human bodies fitted with implants so others can operate them remotely.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Operated bodies are a banned niche; assumed a few firms use them for promotion.
Who is paid. Firms pay, and established makers of implants collect since the fittings can be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Stimtab
The Forever War, Joe Haldeman · 1974
A pill that holds off sleep and sharpens attention over extended periods.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Staying alert without sleep for long stretches is something a great many workers, drivers and students would use.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and stimulants of this kind are old chemistry many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Modded Dog
The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975
A breed of dog engineered for higher intelligence that passes it on to its pups.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A cleverer dog is a prized pet or working animal, which is a niche.
Who is paid. Owners pay, and because the dogs pass the trait on, established breeders collect instead of the originator.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
A medical tool that heals wounds with beams of light.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Closing wounds with light would replace stitches and shorten recovery across surgery and emergency care.
Who is paid. Hospitals and clinics would buy it, and other makers could copy the tool, so established surgical equipment firms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Empty Man
A World Out of Time, Larry Niven · 1976
A living body whose original personality has been erased, shown in the story as a punishment.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.
Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ixian Sight Mask
Children of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1976
A wearable device that gives vision to blind people.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Giving sight back to blind people is worth an industry of its own, though most people would never need it.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and once the design was known other device makers could copy it, so established implant makers and eye clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Surgeon
The Bicentennial Man, Isaac Asimov · 1976
A machine that performs operations on patients without human control.
built in 2000, 24 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Operations done by machine would change the costs and reach of surgery.
Who is paid. Hospitals would buy it, and other firms could build such machines, so established makers of surgical equipment collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Young-Forever
A World Out of Time, Larry Niven · 1976
A treatment for endless youth paired with a fix for the resulting population growth.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Holding off old age meets about the deepest need there is, and nearly everyone alive would want it.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and I assumed it is a new medicine protected from copying for a long while, so its maker keeps much of the gain.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Javelin
The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977
A person surgically and genetically adapted to live comfortably in open space.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the surgery and gene work that fit a body for open space, which serves the few who work there.
Who is paid. I assumed firms working in space pay for their crews; other surgeons and laboratories could learn the work, so established clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Substance D
A Scanner Darkly, Philip K. Dick · 1977
A fictional illicit street drug central to the story's themes of addiction and surveillance.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The description promises only an unlawful drug taken for pleasure, which gives its users nothing beyond what such drugs already give.
Who is paid. Users would buy it unlawfully, and I assumed such drugs can be made by many hands, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Symb
The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977
A partner organism living with its human host and supplying the energy that keeps them alive.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. I assumed it serves the few people who choose to live in open space, which is a niche.
Who is paid. The people who wear it would pay, and a living partner can be bred on by others, so established breeders and suppliers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Uniflesh
The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977
Synthetic tissue that replaces skin and the soft layers beneath it.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Man-made skin helps people with burns and bad wounds, which is an important but narrow part of medicine.
Who is paid. Hospitals and clinics would buy it, and the firms that already supply wound dressings could all make it, so they collect a modest margin.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
CORA - Coronary Alarm
The Fountains of Paradise, Arthur C. Clarke · 1978
A worn or implanted heart monitor that warns its wearer of an impending cardiac event.
already existed before the story (the 1960s)
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Warning of a heart attack before it strikes would save many lives among older people.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and many electronics firms could build such a monitor, so established makers of wearable and heart devices collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Boosterspice
Ringworld Engineers, Larry Niven · 1980
A compound that lets people keep living for centuries, perhaps without end.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Holding off old age meets about the deepest need there is, and nearly everyone alive would want it.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and a new medicine is protected from copying for a long while, so its maker keeps much of the gain.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Optic Prosthesis
Changeling, Roger Zelazny · 1980
An artificial eye that restores vision after the original is lost.
built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Restoring lost sight with an artificial eye would be worth an industry.
Who is paid. Patients pay, with insurers behind them, and makers of medical implants collect since rivals could copy the eye.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tapeworm Tranquilizer
Revolution from Rosinante, Alexis Arnaldus Gilliland · 1981
A small robotic device placed in the gut that releases calming medication.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It is a handy way of taking a calming medicine, not a new medicine.
Who is paid. Patients would buy it, and other device and drug firms could make the same thing, so established makers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Designer Eyes
Blade Runner, Ridley Scott · 1982
Bioengineered eyes grown to outperform natural vision for artificial people.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Grown eyes that see better than natural ones would be worth an industry, as with other replacement eyes.
Who is paid. In the story the makers of artificial people buy them, which is why the payer differs from other eyes; other laboratories could grow them too, so established suppliers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gnome
Millenium, John Varley · 1983
Someone so dependent on medical support that their body is fused with a powered chair.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the powered chair that keeps a very frail body alive, which serves a small group of people.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and several equipment makers could build such a chair, so established makers of medical equipment collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Revitalizer Console.
Millenium, John Varley · 1983
An automated medical station that rebalances body chemistry and replenishes fluids.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Restoring fluids and body chemistry by machine saves ward staff some routine work, which is a convenience.
Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and clinics buy it; such a station is easy to copy, so established makers of hospital equipment collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Skull Alarm
Millenium, John Varley · 1983
An alarm implanted in the head that rouses the sleeper.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. An alarm inside the head does what a bedside clock does, so it is a convenience.
Who is paid. People would pay to have it fitted, and other firms could copy it, so established makers of medical devices collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wimp
Millenium, John Varley · 1983
A mindless human body cultivated as a spare physical vessel.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The name is of the body, so the thing judged is the growing of a spare body, which would serve as a source of replacement parts and belongs with replacement organs.
Who is paid. I assumed patients pay, mostly through insurers or health services; other laboratories could learn the method, so established tissue laboratories and hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wimp Vault
Millenium, John Varley · 1983
A storage facility holding many spare cultivated bodies.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Storing spare bodies is a keeping service that follows from growing them, and the input marks it banned, so I assumed it is allowed only where the bodies are.
Who is paid. I assumed the laboratories that grow the bodies pay for the storage; any firm with cold premises could offer it, so established storage and laboratory firms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dermadisk
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
A skin patch delivering medication rapidly through the body's surface.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A patch is a handy way of taking a medicine, not a new medicine.
Who is paid. Patients would buy it, and any drug firm can put its medicines in a patch, so established drug makers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Image-Amps
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
Eye enhancements that amplify faint light so the user can see at night.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Seeing at night is an extra and not a cure, which sets it apart from eyes that give sight back.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and other device makers could copy it, so established implant makers and eye clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Intellectual Cell
Blood Music, Greg Bear · 1984
An engineered immune cell granted memory, reasoning and the ability to communicate.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Body cells that can think and talk to each other would be a new kind of medicine and of computing, if they stayed under control.
Who is paid. I assumed drug firms and laboratories buy them; a living cell multiplies, so anyone with a sample could grow more, and established drug makers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Joeboy (Muscle Grafts)
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
Surgery that grafts extra muscle onto a person's body.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Extra muscle by surgery appeals to a few people who want strength for work or show.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and other surgeons could learn it, so established clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Medically Applicable Biochip
Blood Music, Greg Bear · 1984
A living-tissue computer designed to work inside the body for treatment.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A living computer that treats from inside the body would be worth an industry in medicine.
Who is paid. Hospitals pay, and established drug and device firms collect because living tissue multiplies and a sample is enough to copy it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mirrorshades - Surgically Inset Glasses
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
Reflective lenses permanently set into the wearer's face over the eyes.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Lenses set into the face are a fashion choice for a few.
Who is paid. Wearers pay, and any clinic can fit them so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Nikon Eyes
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
Lab-grown eyes transplanted to replace or mend a person's natural ones.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Grown eyes that replace failing ones would be worth an industry.
Who is paid. Patients pay, with insurers behind them, and established tissue growers and eye clinics collect since others could grow them too.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Selected Melanin Boosting
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
A cosmetic treatment that raises skin pigment to produce a chosen tan.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A chosen tan is a matter of looks, not need.
Who is paid. People would pay for themselves, and I assumed many salons and makers of cosmetics could offer it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Toothbud Transplant
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
Implanted teeth grown to copy the bite of other animals.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Teeth shaped like those of other animals are a fashion, which sets them apart from plain replacement teeth.
Who is paid. Wearers would buy them, and I assumed many dental workshops could grow and fit them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
CCD Eyes
Stone Lives, Paul Di Filippo · 1985
Electronic replacement eyes built on camera sensors that offer a range of functions.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Giving sight back to blind people is worth an industry of its own, though most people would never need it.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and once the design was known other device makers could copy it, so established implant makers and eye clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Deceleration Paste
Schismatrix, Bruce Sterling · 1985
A remedy for the bodily harm caused by violent braking during spaceflight.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It serves only people who work in space or under unusual gravity, which is a niche.
Who is paid. I assumed employers and space carriers buy it for their crews; a new drug is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what little is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mnemotropin
Stone Lives, Paul Di Filippo · 1985
A medicine that helps the brain lay down lasting memories.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A medicine for lasting memory would be wanted by students, workers and the old.
Who is paid. People pay for the medicine, and the developer keeps the gain because a new medicine is protected from copying.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sentient Room
Schismatrix, Bruce Sterling · 1985
A chamber built of living tissue governed by a single person's mind.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A living room answering to one mind is a curiosity; I assumed a few wealthy owners would want one.
Who is paid. The owner would pay, and living tissue can be grown on by others, so established growers of such tissue collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Uterine Replicator
Shards of Honor, Lois McMaster Bujold · 1986
An artificial womb that carries a pregnancy outside the body.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Carrying a child outside the body would spare mothers the risks of pregnancy and open parenthood to people who cannot carry a child.
Who is paid. Would-be parents would pay, and other laboratories could copy the chamber once it worked, so established fertility clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Birthing egg
Nanotime, Bart Kosko · 1987
A chamber that merges two parents' genes and grows the resulting baby outside the body.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Carrying a child outside the body would spare mothers the risks of pregnancy and open parenthood to people who cannot carry a child, and the mixing of the parents' genes does not change the size.
Who is paid. Would-be parents would pay, and other laboratories could copy the chamber once it worked, so established fertility clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sculpted Teeth
Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988
Cosmetic reshaping of teeth for a fashionable smile.
already existed before the story (the 1900s)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Fashionable teeth are a matter of looks, not need.
Who is paid. People would pay for themselves, and any dentist could offer it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Steel Drugs
Islands in the Net, Bruce Sterling · 1988
A slang term in the story for fully synthetic recreational drugs.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Drugs taken for pleasure have many users, but the description promises nothing beyond what such drugs already give.
Who is paid. Users would buy them, most likely unlawfully, and such drugs can be made by many hands, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Anti-Onc Cream
Earth, David Brin · 1990
A topical cream that eliminates cancers of the skin.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Skin cancers are among the commonest cancers, and a cream that clears them would replace a great deal of surgery.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and a new drug is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Eloi
Queen of Angels, Greg Bear · 1990
A class of people whose lifespans have been stretched by medical treatments.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the treatment that stretches life, and holding off old age is about the deepest need there is.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and I assumed the treatments are new medicines, which are protected from copying for a long while, so their maker keeps much of the gain.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Fabricow
Piecework, David Brin · 1990
Livestock engineered to grow designed biological machines inside their bodies like a factory.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Animals that grow designed living machines would be a new way of manufacturing.
Who is paid. Manufacturers would buy the output, and the breeding stock could be copied, so farms and firms that already own herds and land collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mammontelephas
Earth, David Brin · 1990
An extinct woolly elephant brought back to life using its recovered DNA.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A revived extinct animal is a draw for parks and collections, which is a niche.
Who is paid. Parks and zoos pay, and since the animals breed, established breeders and park owners collect instead of the reviver.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Oxygen Hip Flask
Earth, David Brin · 1990
A pocket-sized canister that supplies clean oxygen for a person to inhale on the go.
already existed before the story (the 1900s)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Pocket oxygen is a convenience for a few.
Who is paid. Shoppers pay, and many firms can fill a canister so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Purza the Pukha
The Rowan, Anne McCaffrey · 1990
A cuddly toy fitted with sensors that watches over young hospital patients.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A watchful toy comforts sick children and eases the work of a ward, which is a niche.
Who is paid. Hospitals would buy it for their wards, and a toy with sensors is easy for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
EverRest Cryotorium
Flare, Roger Zelazny · 1992
A service that freezes the dead and stores them permanently in orbit.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Storing the frozen dead in orbit is a costly kind of burial for a few.
Who is paid. Families would pay, and other firms could offer the same, so established funeral firms and launch companies collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Readout Skin
Steel Beach, John Varley · 1992
Skin modified to show text and images while looking natural otherwise.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Skin that shows pictures and words is a novelty for a healthy body, not a need.
Who is paid. People would pay to have it done, and several clinics and device makers could offer it, so established ones collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Diagnostic Sleeve
Gripping Hand, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1993
An arm cuff that identifies ailments and delivers the right drugs.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A cuff that finds what is wrong and gives the right drug would put everyday doctoring in the home.
Who is paid. I assumed people buy it for themselves; several firms could build it, so established makers of medical devices and the drug firms that fill it collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Embryo Visualization
Daughter of Elysium, Joan Slonczewski · 1994
An imaging method showing how an embryo's cells grow in three dimensions.
built in the 1990s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Watching an embryo grow in depth is a tool for researchers and fertility clinics.
Who is paid. Laboratories and clinics would buy it, and several makers of imaging equipment could build it, so those makers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tannin-Secretion Pills
Crashlander, Larry Niven · 1994
A pill that makes the skin produce more pigment to shield it from sunlight.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A pill that darkens the skin against the sun is a convenience that creams and shade already provide.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and a new drug is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Composite Living
The Day the Aliens Came, Robert Sheckley · 1995
Joining with other living species into a merged organism.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Merging with other species is a way of living in the story, not a product anyone sells.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Freedom Machine
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
A contraceptive made with molecular-scale machinery.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Reliable birth control is wanted by a large share of adults, though other methods already exist.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and other makers could copy it, so established drug firms with the shops and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Microde
Armed Memory, Jim Smith · 1995
A fictional engineered virus aimed at one person to alter their traits in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A banned tool for changing a chosen person is a niche; assumed a state agency is the only buyer.
Who is paid. A government pays, and the laboratories that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sites
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
Implanted micro-devices that fire muscles in order to boost physical strength.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Extra strength for a healthy body is wanted by some workers and athletes, which is a niche.
Who is paid. People would pay to have them fitted, and other firms could copy the implants, so established makers of medical devices collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Video Unit
Idoru, William Gibson · 1996
A camera wired into the optic nerve to restore sight to blind people.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Giving sight back to blind people is worth an industry of its own, though most people would never need it.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and once the design was known other device makers could copy it, so established implant makers and eye clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Diveskin
Starfish, Peter Watts · 1999
A dive suit plus body modifications that let people work at crushing ocean depths.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Working at crushing depths serves a few deep-sea trades.
Who is paid. Firms working on the sea floor would buy it for their crews, and makers of diving gear could build it, so those firms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Eyecaps
Starfish, Peter Watts · 1999
Lenses fitted over the eyes that let divers see in the deep sea.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Seeing in the deep sea serves a few divers.
Who is paid. Firms that employ divers would buy them, and I assumed other lens makers could copy them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Genejack
Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999
A genetically engineered human bred for manual labour, portrayed critically in the game.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the breeding of people made for labour, which would give a state its workforce to order, though few societies would allow it.
Who is paid. I assumed the state runs the breeding, as with other ways of turning out people to order; the method could be copied, so the laboratories and suppliers serving it collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Homo Superior
Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999
A new branch of humanity produced by extreme genetic engineering.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the engineering of a child's genes before birth, which many parents would pay dearly for.
Who is paid. I assumed parents pay; the methods could be copied, so established fertility clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Medical Mantis
Starfish, Peter Watts · 1999
A remotely operated machine through which a distant doctor examines and operates on patients.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Letting a distant doctor operate would change the cost of care far from hospitals.
Who is paid. Hospitals and remote employers pay, and makers of surgical equipment collect since rivals could build the same machine.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Neuroinduction Field
Starfish, Peter Watts · 1999
A field that holds a patient motionless by acting on the nervous system.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Holding a patient still without drugs is a handy tool for hospitals.
Who is paid. Hospitals pay, and makers of medical equipment collect since the device can be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Recycler
Starfish, Peter Watts · 1999
A surgically fitted implant that lets a diver breathe by drawing oxygen from the surrounding ocean.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It serves only people who work under the sea, which is a niche.
Who is paid. I assumed diving and undersea firms pay to fit their workers; other makers could copy the implant, so established makers of medical devices collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Anti-Virus Design Software
Super-Cannes: A Novel, J.G. Ballard · 2000
Architectural design tools that lay out spaces to slow the spread of infection.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Laying out buildings to slow infection is a helpful feature of design software, not a new industry.
Who is paid. Architects and builders would buy it, and any software firm could write the same thing, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Provigil-C
A Hymn Before Battle, John Ringo · 2000
A medicine that keeps soldiers alert through long stretches without rest.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Keeping troops alert through long operations is worth a good deal to any army.
Who is paid. The description names soldiers, so the army pays; wakefulness drugs are widely made, so the firms that already supply military medicine collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Inertial Bracelet
Psychohistorical Crisis, Donald Kingsbury · 2001
A wrist device that damps shaking in the hands.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Steadying shaking hands helps people with a few conditions.
Who is paid. Wearers would buy it, and it is a simple device many firms could make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hyperpig
Redemption Ark, Alastair Reynolds · 2002
A hybrid creature blending pig and human genes.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. The description gives the creature no use that a buyer would pay for, unlike made creatures bred for work, organs or company, so there is nothing to price.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Provigil
When the Devil Dances, John Ringo · 2002
A pill that removes fatigue itself rather than merely masking sleepiness.
already existed before the story (1998)
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Removing fatigue itself, not just masking it, is the promise of doing without sleep and would hand nearly every adult many more waking hours; the real medicine of this name does less.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and a medicine that truly did this would be new and protected from copying for a long while, so its maker keeps much of the gain.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vagus Nerve Bio-Chip
Diplomatic Immunity, Lois McMaster Bujold · 2002
An implant that stimulates a nerve to stop queasiness without medication.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Stopping queasiness without medicine is a convenience for travellers and some patients.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and several firms could build such an implant, so established makers of medical devices collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Autosurgeon
Altered Carbon, Richard Morgan · 2003
A robotic machine that performs operations, with doctors on hand.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A machine that operates would cut the cost of surgery, but with doctors still on hand it changes only that part of medicine.
Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and clinics buy it; with the needed machine intelligence widely available several firms could build it, so established medical equipment makers and hospital groups collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
External Eyelenses
Altered Carbon, Richard Morgan · 2003
Old-fashioned lenses worn in front of the eyes to fix poor sight.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Correcting poor sight serves a large share of all people, though the story treats it as old-fashioned.
Who is paid. People buy them for themselves, and lenses are simple to grind and sold everywhere, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pigoon
Oryx and Crake, Margaret Atwood · 2003
A genetically modified pig raised to supply organs for human transplant.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A steady supply of organs for transplant would be worth an industry.
Who is paid. Patients pay, with insurers behind them, and since the animals breed, established farms and transplant centres collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Spray-on Surgical Gloves
Altered Carbon, Richard Morgan · 2003
A coating sprayed onto a surgeon's hands to form a thin sterile glove.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A sprayed glove is a small saving of time and fuss in the operating room.
Who is paid. Hospitals would buy it, and many makers of medical supplies could mix such a spray, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tuned-Laser Decontamination
Hybrids (Neanderthal Parallax), Robert J. Sawyer · 2003
A light-based treatment that wipes out unwanted biological molecules inside a person.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Clearing germs and other unwanted matter from inside a person with light would replace many medicines and change how infection is treated.
Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and border posts buy the equipment; other makers could copy it once it worked, so established medical equipment firms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gillfluid
The Algebraist, Iain M Banks · 2004
An oxygen-rich liquid breathed into the lungs so the body can withstand high pressure.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Breathing liquid to bear high pressure serves a few divers and space crews.
Who is paid. Firms would buy it for their crews, and I assumed the liquid is a chemical many firms could make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
KloraDerm
Old Man's War, John Scalzi · 2005
Engineered human skin that photosynthesises, letting the body draw some energy from sunlight.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The story promises only a little energy from sunlight, which is a curiosity beside ordinary food.
Who is paid. I assumed people buy it for themselves from clinics; the method could be copied, so clinics already offering such treatments collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
A-Som (Antisomnolence Drugs)
Shuteye for the Timebroker, Paul Di Filippo · 2006
A single tablet that eliminates the body's requirement for sleep.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Doing away with sleep would hand nearly every adult many more waking hours, changing how most people live and work.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and a new drug is protected from copying for a long while, so its maker keeps much of the gain.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Blithe
Anathem, Neal Stephenson · 2008
A fictional engineered plant used for social control in the story.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.
Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
EyePod
WWW: Wake, Robert J. Sawyer · 2009
An external processor unit that drives an implant restoring sight.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Giving sight back to blind people is worth an industry of its own, though most people would never need it.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and once the design was known other device makers could copy it, so established implant makers and eye clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Humeld
The Human Blend, Alan Dean Foster · 2010
A person whose body has been extensively modified with engineered or artificial parts.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the fitting of engineered and artificial parts to the body, which taken together covers replacement eyes, limbs and organs and is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and other firms could copy the parts, so established implant makers and the hospitals that fit them collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Nutrient Extractor and Maximizer (NEM)
The Human Blend, Alan Dean Foster · 2010
An implanted apparatus that takes over and improves how the body processes food.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. An implant that improves how the body uses food would be wanted by a great many people.
Who is paid. Patients pay, and makers of medical implants collect since rivals could build the same device.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sloth Pill
The Breach, M.T. Hill · 2020
A drug that puts a traveller into a brief hibernation-like torpor for the length of a flight.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Sleeping through a single flight is a comfort for travellers, unlike the long dormancy that makes far voyages possible.
Who is paid. Travellers would buy it for themselves, and a new drug is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flesh Putty
Titanium Noir, Nick Harkaway · 2023
A moldable tissue substitute pressed into wounds to fill damaged flesh.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Man-made skin helps people with burns and bad wounds, which is an important but narrow part of medicine.
Who is paid. Hospitals and clinics would buy it, and the firms that already supply wound dressings could all make it, so they collect a modest margin.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.