The technologies stories first imagined in this decade, by kind, with whether each has been built since and who would keep the profit.
By kind of technology
Space travel and habitats · 11
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Polar Ice
The Ring of Charon, Roger MacBride Allen · 1990
Frozen water deposits in lunar polar craters treated as a resource for settlement.
built in the 1990s, about 0 years after it was imagined
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a natural deposit, not a product anyone makes; the mining that turns such ice into water and fuel is judged as its own entry.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Seeder Ramship
Rammer, Larry Niven · 1991
An interstellar ship that travels between stars and reshapes planets so people can live there.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Giving a whole world air and a climate people can live in would open new land for a large share of humanity.
Who is paid. Only a government could fund work on a whole world, and the large engineering firms that already hold such contracts would be paid to do it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Stimsuit
Heavy Time, C.J. Cherryh · 1991
A tight stretchy garment that counters the bodily harm of weightlessness for astronauts.
built in 2000, 9 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It guards crews against the bodily harm of long weightlessness, useful gear but only for the few who work in space.
Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and the established makers of suits and space gear can all copy a design, so they collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Timeslip
Red Mars, Spider Robinson · 1992
A timekeeping convention that absorbs the longer Martian day into a pause off the clock.
built in 2021, 29 years after it was imagined
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a way of keeping time on Mars that needs no new equipment, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Crash Web
Crashlander, Larry Niven · 1994
A simple mechanical trigger that switches on a force-field crash protector.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. This is only the trigger for a crash protector, a safety part within a ship.
Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, assumed here, and shipbuilders could all fit such a simple trigger.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Inflatable Expansion Bubble
Crashlander, Larry Niven · 1994
A pop-out inflatable module that adds living room to a cramped spaceship.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It adds room or comfort to a ship but is a part of the craft, not an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and established shipbuilders supply it because others could copy it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
D-9 Motherspinner
The Golden Globe, John Varley · 1998
A giant bioengineered spider that spins large structures in orbit.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A creature that spins large structures in orbit would change the cost of building in space.
Who is paid. Builders in space pay for its work, and a creature that breeds can be raised by others once any stock exists, so the established space builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Magsail
Falling Stars, Michael Flynn · 1998
A spacecraft between planets pushed by solar wind caught in a magnetic field.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. An engine that moves ships faster or more cheaply would change the cost of all space transport.
Who is paid. An engine is bought by whoever runs the ship, assumed here to be carriers, and established engine builders could copy it once it worked.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Magship
Falling Stars, Michael Flynn · 1998
A spacecraft that rides the solar wind using a large magnetic field.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A working ship that carries people and cargo between worlds is the base of a whole transport industry.
Who is paid. Carriers and other firms working in space buy ships, and since a second yard could build the same craft the established shipbuilders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Handlers
The Golden Globe, John Varley · 1998
Little helper robots aboard spacecraft that do assorted chores.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Small robots doing chores aboard a ship save a crew some labour, a fitting of the craft as described.
Who is paid. Ship operators pay for them within the craft, and established builders of ships and their fittings could all supply them.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Spaceplane (Clarke-class)
A Quantum Murder, Peter F. Hamilton · 1998
A winged craft that flies to low orbit at low cost.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A cheap reusable way from the ground to orbit would cut the cost of everything done in space.
Who is paid. Carriers buy the craft to move people and cargo, and once it flew other builders could copy it, so established craft builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Computing, AI and virtual worlds · 45
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Autosecretary (Autosec)
Earth, David Brin · 1990
A software helper that takes a question and hunts through online sources for relevant material.
built in the 2010s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Finding the right material among everything written is worth an industry of its own, though it is the linked network beneath it that changes how people live.
Who is paid. I assume the people who ask pay for the answers, as they would for any service they use themselves, and that the service with the most users learns most from their questions, which others cannot get.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Data-Retrieval Programs
Earth, David Brin · 1990
Software that crawls networks to fetch particular pieces of information.
built in the 1990s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Finding the right material among everything written is worth an industry of its own, though it is the linked network beneath it that changes how people live.
Who is paid. I assume the people who ask pay for the answers, as they would for any service they use themselves, and that the service with the most users learns most from their questions, which others cannot get.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
EmilyPost
Earth, David Brin · 1990
A self-running program that crawls the internet flagging rude or impolite behaviour.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Flagging rudeness online is a minor tidying service.
Who is paid. I assume the firms that run online meeting places pay, and such a program is easy to write, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Filter Program
Earth, David Brin · 1990
Software that screens online results so a person meets only what they choose.
built in the 1990s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Screening out what you do not want to see online is a convenience.
Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay a little for it, and it is easy to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Home Manager
Queen of Angels, Greg Bear · 1990
A voice-driven household assistant that fields phone calls and handles small chores.
built in the 2010s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Having the house answer calls and handle small chores saves a little time but changes little.
Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay a little for it, and it is easy to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Kinotrope
The Difference Engine, William Gibson (w/B. Sterling · 1990
A mechanical display of rotating tiles that flip to build coarse pictures.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A board of flipping tiles shows coarse pictures and notices, which is a niche kind of sign.
Who is paid. Theatres, stations and advertisers buy it, and it is simple machinery any workshop can copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Lawyer Program
Earth, David Brin · 1990
A program that follows courtroom arguments and assesses them.
built in the 2010s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A program that follows and weighs courtroom argument does a lawyer's core work and would cut costs across the legal trade.
Who is paid. Firms are assumed to be the main buyers, and although only the licensed may give legal advice the licensed are many, so no seller of the software keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Personal Cache
Earth, David Brin · 1990
Cloud storage where an individual keeps their own files and records.
built in the 2000s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Keeping a person's records and messages safe and reachable from anywhere is a service nearly everyone would use.
Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for it, and since it is easy to copy the firms that already own the great computer halls and networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Quantum Logic Thinker (QL)
Heads, Greg Bear · 1990
A computer that reasons through problems using unconventional quantum logic.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A machine that truly reasons its way through problems, whatever logic it runs on, could do much of the mental work people do now, which would change how most people work.
Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Subvocal Input Device
Earth, David Brin · 1990
Sensors that pick up silent speech as computer input before it is spoken aloud.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A new way to give a computer commands is a convenience for most users and a real help for a few.
Who is paid. Ordinary users buy it as an add-on, and many gadget firms can make one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vivisector
Earth, David Brin · 1990
Software that dissects a running program to reveal what it is doing.
already existed before the story (the 1940s)
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A tool that shows what a running program is doing is a help to programmers, which is a niche.
Who is paid. Software firms buy it for their programmers, and many toolmakers can write one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Law Expert System (LEX)
The Moat, Greg Egan · 1991
A program that produces legal advice on a case.
built in 2016, 25 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Sound legal advice from a program would cut the cost of contracts, disputes and counsel across the whole legal trade, though early real versions did much less.
Who is paid. Firms are assumed to be the main buyers, and although only the licensed may give legal advice the licensed are many, so no seller of the software keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Screening Software
The Moat, Greg Egan · 1991
A filter program that removes junk messages from an inbox.
built in 1997, 6 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Clearing junk out of an inbox saves a little time each day, which is a convenience.
Who is paid. Ordinary users get it with their mail service, and any software firm can write a filter, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Avatar Construction Set
Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992
A software toolkit for designing a personal figure to use in virtual worlds.
built in 2022, 30 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Designing a figure to wear in a virtual world is a pastime for those who go there.
Who is paid. Users pay a little, and such toolkits are easy to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
CIC Virtual Earth
Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992
A detailed interactive model of the planet layered with data about places.
built in 2005, 13 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A working model of the whole planet with data on every place serves shipping, building, travel and much else.
Who is paid. Firms pay for use or for notice on it, and the store of gathered place data is costly for a latecomer to match.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Data Goggles
Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992
A headset that immerses the wearer fully in a computer-generated world.
built in 2010, 18 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Stepping inside the network as a place would be a new medium for play and work, worth an industry of its own, and that promise is judged here though the real headsets have stayed a niche.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy the gear and the access, the idea is easy to copy, and firms that already own networks and gadget factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dataset
A Fire Upon The Deep, Vernor Vinge · 1992
A handheld computer with several displays and a broad set of functions.
built in 2013, 21 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A handheld computer of broad use, which I assume is linked to a network, changes how most people talk, shop, work and find things out.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy one each, many firms can make them, and those with the factories, brands and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Handwriter
Steel Beach, John Varley · 1992
An implant under the skin that lets a person write text into a computer.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A new way to give a computer its orders is a convenience and not a new capability.
Who is paid. People buy it as an add-on to machines they already own, assuming the implant is simple enough for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Metavirus (Digital Metavirus)
Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992
A fictional informational virus that harms both machines and human minds in the story.
already existed before the story (the 1970s)
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Judged as a working weapon rather than as the harm it does, a virus that damages both machines and minds is a narrow tool of attack.
Who is paid. Those it harms pay nothing, so I assume a government buys it as a weapon, and since such code can be written by others the firms that already supply states with arms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sven
The Turing Option, Harry Harrison · 1992
An artificial intelligence program that investigates cases like a detective.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Judged as a program that can solve cases as a good detective does, it would change what police work costs.
Who is paid. Police forces pay, and once thinking machines exist the firms that already supply police record systems collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Spex (Spexware)
Deep Eddy, Bruce Sterling · 1993
Smart glasses with a built-in display and computer help.
built in the 2010s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Unlike other worn computers, a private display in front of the eyes could replace most other screens, which is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and since rivals can copy the design, the firms that already own gadget factories, shops and well-known names collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Translation Program
Deep Eddy, Bruce Sterling · 1993
Software that interprets spoken conversation between languages as people talk.
built in the 2010s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Letting any two people talk and read across languages opens up travel, trade and work, which is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Travellers, migrants and other ordinary people buy it to use themselves, firms buy it too, and once it works many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
AIRE
Mother of Storms, John Barnes · 1994
Software that decodes protected programs to reveal exactly how they work.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Laying bare how a protected program works matters to a narrow set of security and software firms.
Who is paid. Those firms pay, and once one such tool exists others could write their own, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vai-Chi
Rim, Alexander Besher · 1994
A martial exercise routine performed inside a virtual environment.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is an exercise routine done inside a computer-made world, a pastime and not a technology that is sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ava
The Calcutta Chromosome, Amitav Ghosh · 1995
A program that learns from its user and tutors them in return.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A patient private tutor for every learner would change the cost and quality of schooling, which is one industry however many people it reaches.
Who is paid. I assume families buy it rather than schools, and teaching software is easy for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mediatron
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
An ultra-thin connected display sheet like electronic paper.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A screen as thin and light as paper is a general display that could replace print and fixed sets, which changes the costs of a whole industry.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and the firms that already make and sell screens and pocket computers add the feature and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Primer
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
An adaptive interactive book that tutors a child, starting with reading and speech.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A patient private tutor for every learner would change the cost and quality of schooling, which is one industry however many people it reaches.
Who is paid. Parents buy it for their children, and teaching software is easy for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Computer Translator
Idoru, William Gibson · 1996
Software that translates languages automatically once connected to a device.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Letting any two people talk and read across languages opens up travel, trade and work, which is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Travellers, migrants and other ordinary people buy it to use themselves, firms buy it too, and once it works many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Control-Face
Idoru, William Gibson · 1996
A small handheld screen that serves as a portal into a person's networked life.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A networked computer in the hand changes how most people talk, shop, work and find things out.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy one each, many firms can make them, and those with the factories, brands and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cybernetic Water Witch
Idoru, William Gibson · 1996
Someone who sifts through vast streams of data to spot meaningful patterns.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Finding patterns in data is a trade whose work is sold, a narrow service to the firms that hold the data.
Who is paid. Firms pay such people for their labour, and anyone with the skill can offer it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Headset
Idoru, William Gibson · 1996
Wireless earpieces that translate speech from other languages.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Letting any two people talk and read across languages opens up travel, trade and work, which is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Travellers, migrants and other ordinary people buy it to use themselves, firms buy it too, and once it works many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Idoru
Idoru, William Gibson · 1996
A synthetic celebrity personality that lives only on digital networks.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A made-up star who truly held an audience would earn what a real star earns without ever tiring or ageing.
Who is paid. Fans pay through music, shows and goods, and I assume the law lets the owner of the character alone use it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sandbenders
Idoru, William Gibson · 1996
A handmade, individually crafted computer, the opposite of mass-market hardware.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A handmade computer does what a factory one does and pleases a few buyers who want craft.
Who is paid. A few buyers pay extra for the handwork, and any skilled workshop can do the same, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Virtual Meeting
Idoru, William Gibson · 1996
A simulated room where people gather online to meet.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Unlike a whole computer-made world, a simulated meeting room does one job, saving some travel, which is a convenience.
Who is paid. Firms pay for it so staff can meet from afar, and many firms can offer the same, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Moldies
Freeware, Rudy Rucker · 1997
Self-directed artificial living beings that think and act on their own.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. These are free beings that act for themselves in the story and not a product anyone owns or sells.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mook
Bicycle Repairman, Bruce Sterling · 1997
Software that stands in for its owner, screening and answering messages on their behalf.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Software that answers on your behalf saves its owner time and trouble, which is a convenience.
Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay a little for it, and it is easy to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Aggressive-Response Service
The Golden Globe, John Varley · 1998
A call-answering service programmed to rebuff unwanted callers rudely.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Having unwanted callers turned away is a small convenience.
Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay a little for it, and it is simple to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dime Disk
The Best of all Possible Wars, Larry Niven · 1998
A coin-sized disc for storing data.
built in the 2000s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Small, cheap ways of keeping and carrying data are needed by every computer user and make an industry of their own.
Who is paid. Firms and their customers buy it in bulk, the idea is easy to copy, and those who already own the costly factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Junkbot
Distraction, Bruce Sterling · 1998
An automated program that mass-mails unsolicited advertising.
built in the 1990s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Sending unwanted advertising in bulk earns a little for the sender and annoys everyone else.
Who is paid. Advertisers of the cheapest kind pay for it, and anyone can write such a program, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Talking Tape
Distraction, Bruce Sterling · 1998
A sticky strip packing location, networking and a speaker so objects can talk.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A strip that lets any object say where it is and speak is a handy label for goods and tools.
Who is paid. Firms buy it by the roll to tag their goods, and many makers can produce it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
GPS Sunglasses
All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999
Shades with built-in location tracking and phone service.
built in the 2020s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Putting a small computer into something worn is a convenience beside the pocket computer people already carry.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, it is easy to copy, and firms with known brands in gadgets or clothing collect what little is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Head Cheese
Starfish, Peter Watts · 1999
A thinking gel of grown nerve cells spread on a surface to do computation.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A computer grown from living nerve cells that outdid ordinary chips would change the cost of computing for one industry after another.
Who is paid. Firms that need computing pay, and I assume others could learn to grow such tissue in time, so the firms that already sell computing to every business collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Localizer
A Deepness in the Sky, Vernor Vinge · 1999
Tiny devices that link up into self-organising mesh networks and locate each other.
built in the 2000s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Tiny devices that find each other and link up could track goods, machines and people everywhere, which changes the costs of moving and watching things.
Who is paid. Firms and governments buy them in great quantity, and the established makers of small electronic parts are best placed to supply them.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sentient Econometrics
Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999
Artificial intelligence applied to predicting the economy.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Knowing where the economy is heading is worth a great deal to banks, traders and planners.
Who is paid. Banks and other firms pay for the forecasts, and I assume that once thinking machines exist many could turn one to the economy, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Smart Gel
Starfish, Peter Watts · 1999
A cultured brain-cell tissue layered onto a base and used as a computer.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A material that computes the way nerve tissue does would let machines handle tasks ordinary circuits manage badly, which changes costs for the computer industry.
Who is paid. Firms that need computing pay, and I assume others could learn to grow or mix such a material in time, so the firms that already sell computing to every business collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Communication, media and displays · 32
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Citizen Journalism
Earth, David Brin · 1990
Ordinary people using phones and the web to report the news themselves.
built in the 1990s, about 0 years after it was imagined
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Ordinary people reporting the news themselves is a habit, not a product, and they do it without charge.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, since the phones and the web it relies on are judged separately.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Credibility Rating
Earth, David Brin · 1990
A score attached to online writing that tells readers how trustworthy it is.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A score that reliably told readers what to trust online would reshape news and publishing.
Who is paid. Assuming sites and publishers pay to carry the score, the scorer that readers have come to trust is hard to copy because trust takes long to earn.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
E-Document Distribution
Earth, David Brin · 1990
Beaming a document wirelessly to everyone in a gathering at once.
built in the 2000s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Sending a document to everyone in a room at once saves a little time.
Who is paid. It comes as a feature of devices firms already buy and any maker can add it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Leaf Screens
Sparrowhawk, Thomas A. Easton · 1990
Display panels grown from engineered plants with flat, leaf-like surfaces.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2080s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A thin screen grown like a leaf could replace much printing and most rigid screens.
Who is paid. People buy the panels for their homes, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the growers and screen sellers that already hold stock and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Reading Plaque
Earth, David Brin · 1990
A slim handheld screen used for reading books and documents.
built in the 1990s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A handheld screen holding many books or the day's paper is worth an industry and cuts the cost of printing and delivery.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the device is easy to copy, so the publishers and shops that already own the books and papers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
True-Vu Lenses (Goggles)
Earth, David Brin · 1990
Wearable eyepieces that let the user look through them while capturing video of the scene.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Eyewear that films what the wearer sees is a camera worn on the face, a gadget some people would enjoy.
Who is paid. Unlike eyewear that shows pictures, this only records, so I assume it stays an extra that ordinary people buy, and since many can make one, the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flatscreen Movie
Orbital Resources, John Barnes · 1991
An ordinary flat film, named from the viewpoint of a world used to holographic recordings.
already existed before the story (the 1890s)
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The ordinary flat film, quaint in the story, is in fact worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Audiences pay to watch, anyone can run a projector, and the studios that own the films collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Avatar
Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992
A digital figure that represents a person inside a shared virtual world.
built in 2022, 30 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A figure that stands for you in a virtual world is a feature of that world, bought mostly for looks.
Who is paid. Users pay for their figures and extras, any world could offer them, and the firms that already run the popular worlds collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
DreamTime Scleral Contact Lenses
The California Voodoo Game, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes · 1992
Eye-covering lenses that overlay digital imagery on what the wearer sees.
built in 2016, 24 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Lenses that lay pictures over what you see, working as promised, would take over much of what people now do on handheld screens.
Who is paid. People buy them for themselves, the design is harder than glasses but can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hypercard
Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992
A digital calling card exchanged between users in a virtual world.
built in 2022, 30 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A calling card swapped inside a virtual world is a minor feature of that world.
Who is paid. It comes as a feature of software people already use and any developer can add it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Metaverse
Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992
A shared online three-dimensional world where people meet and interact.
built in 2022, 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A shared online world where people meet would be worth an industry; I judged the promise, which is larger than what was built.
Who is paid. Ordinary people pay; the software can be copied but the crowd already inside cannot, so the first world to fill up keeps most.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Padloid
Steel Beach, John Varley · 1992
A gossip news outlet delivered on a handheld tablet.
built in 2010, 18 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A gossip paper read on a tablet is one more title among many.
Who is paid. Readers pay; anyone can publish gossip, so the publishers who already have the readers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hood Hologram
Virtual Light, William Gibson · 1993
A three-dimensional image projected across a car bonnet.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A picture floating over a car bonnet is decoration, unlike a full display with depth.
Who is paid. Car owners buy it as an ornament and many accessory makers could supply it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Accu-Terrain Floor
Natulife, David Brin · 1994
A shape-changing floor that mimics the ground underfoot in a virtual world.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A floor that copies virtual ground is an add-on for people who already play in virtual worlds.
Who is paid. Assuming a home unit, players buy it, and it is a mechanical floor many firms could build, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Stim-Crib
Natulife, David Brin · 1994
A baby's cot that immerses infants in simulated worlds.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A cot that shows a baby simulated worlds is a luxury for some parents, not a need.
Who is paid. Parents buy it, and I assume it is a home product many firms could make once one had, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Voice-Changing Bowtie
Case Closed (Detective Conan), Gosho Aoyama · 1994
A wearable gadget that makes the wearer sound like someone else.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Sounding like someone else is a toy and a tool for performers and pranksters.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and since many can make a voice changer, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
XV Wedge
Mother of Storms, John Barnes · 1994
A show built from recorded, edited first-person sensory experience that audiences relive.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Reliving another person's recorded senses would be a new mass entertainment to rival film.
Who is paid. Audiences pay for each show, and once the recording method was known others could use it, so the studios that already own stars and stories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mediaglyphic
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
Moving pictograms that stand in for written text for people who cannot read.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Moving signs that stand in for text help those who cannot read, a narrow use once judged as the work of devising and drawing them.
Who is paid. Assuming publishers and sign makers pay designers to draw the signs, as an army would pay for a battle language, a way of writing cannot be owned and any designer could offer it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mediatronic Display
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
Large, thin sheets of digital paper that can show any text or image.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A screen as thin and bendable as paper could replace much printing and most rigid screens.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it inside the things they own; once shown it can be copied, so the firms with the big screen factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Phantoscope (phenomenoscope)
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
An eye-worn or implanted screen that overlays computer imagery on vision.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Information laid over what you see would change many jobs and daily errands; I judged the promise, which is larger than what has been sold.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the glasses can be copied, so the firms that already hold the software and the information shown collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Phased Acoustical Array
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
A tiny audio system fitted onto the eardrum to play sound straight into the ear.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Sound fed straight into the ear is a convenience over an ordinary radio or speaker.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it and many firms can make tiny ear pieces, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Runcible
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
A bound volume whose every leaf is a thin, bendable electronic screen.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A handheld screen holding many books or the day's paper is worth an industry and cuts the cost of printing and delivery.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the device is easy to copy, so the publishers and shops that already own the books and papers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Smart Paper
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
An ultra-thin flexible screen sheet that behaves like paper.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A screen as thin and bendable as paper could replace much printing and most rigid screens.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it inside the things they own; once shown it can be copied, so the firms with the big screen factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Eyephone(s)
Idoru, William Gibson · 1996
Compact goggles that beam pictures straight onto the wearer's eyes.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Goggles that put pictures straight onto the eyes, working as promised, would take over much of what people now do on handheld screens.
Who is paid. People buy them for themselves, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Synthespian
Idoru, William Gibson · 1996
A computer-generated celebrity who performs and interacts with fans as if real.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A made-up star who performs and answers fans as if real could carry a whole entertainment business.
Who is paid. Fans pay for the music, the shows and the goods, and though one character can be owned, any studio could make a star of its own, so the studios and labels that already own the stages and the audiences collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
UPUD
First to Fight, David Sherman (w/Cragg) · 1997
A satellite position and communications link used by soldiers in the field.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Knowing where every soldier is and being able to reach them from orbit changes how an army fights.
Who is paid. The armed forces pay, and since several firms could build the handsets and satellites, those that already hold defence contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Boob Cube
The Best of all Possible Wars, Larry Niven · 1998
A box that shows television news as solid holographic scenes.
built in the 2010s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A box showing broadcasts as solid scenes, working as the story promises and not as those built so far, would replace flat screens in homes, which is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Households buy it, the design can be copied, and the existing screen makers, who own the factories and brands, collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Desktop-TV
Factoring Humanity, Robert J. Sawyer · 1998
User-made video that anyone can publish and anyone worldwide can watch.
built in 2005, 7 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Video that anyone can publish and anyone can watch is a new entertainment industry.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay to reach the viewers, and the site where the makers and the audience have already gathered is hard to copy because each side goes where the other is.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Monobloc Dating System
The Best of all Possible Wars, Larry Niven · 1998
A bar fitted with special machines and software that pair up patrons for romance.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A bar that pairs up its patrons is a niche amusement.
Who is paid. Patrons pay and any bar could install such machines, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Interactive Video Column
All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999
A shop display streaming live views from sister stores around the world.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A display of live views from other shops is a decoration for a store.
Who is paid. Shop chains buy it, a screen and a camera link can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Motion Capture Suit
All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999
A sensor-studded bodysuit that records movement to animate computer graphics.
already existed before the story (the 1970s)
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A suit that records movement is a tool for film and game makers.
Who is paid. Studios buy it and many firms can make one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Video Wallpaper
A Deepness in the Sky, Vernor Vinge · 1999
Wall-sized ultra-thin screens that cover surfaces like wallpaper.
built in the 1990s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A thin screen for the wall is the form nearly every display now takes and is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Robotics and automation · 11
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dormancy Switch
Sparrowhawk, Thomas A. Easton · 1990
A control that puts a bioengineered cyborg animal into sleep on command.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A control that sends a built animal to sleep is a feature of the animal, not a product by itself.
Who is paid. Owners pay for it within the price of the animal, and any maker of such animals could include it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Patient Bath Robot
Roujin Z, Katsuhiro Otomo · 1991
A care robot that washes bedridden patients.
built in 2010, 19 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A robot that washes bedridden patients takes over one task of care, a real help but a single chore.
Who is paid. Hospitals and care homes are assumed to buy it, and a machine for this lone task could be copied by many makers.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Roujin Z-0001 Robotic Bed
Roujin Z, Katsuhiro Otomo · 1991
A robotic care bed that tends to an elderly patient and moves them around unaided.
built in 2015, 24 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A bed that tends and moves an old person unaided would take on much of the daily work of care, worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Families are assumed to buy it for their elderly, and as many could make such beds the firms with factories and trusted names collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Nanobot
Steel Beach, John Varley · 1992
A machine built at molecular scale to carry out tasks.
built in 2000, 8 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Machines built at the scale of molecules would open work in making and mending things that no tool can reach, judged without the power to copy themselves since the description does not give it.
Who is paid. Firms buy them for their work, and as nothing says they cannot be copied the makers with precision factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
P-120 Reconnaissance Robot
A Season for Slaughter, David Gerrold · 1992
A fast, quiet legged robot used for scouting in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A fast, quiet legged scout spares soldiers some danger, a niche use.
Who is paid. Armies pay, and the firms that already hold their supply contracts would build it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Skrode
A Fire Upon The Deep, Vernor Vinge · 1992
A wheeled mobility cart that carries beings who have no legs.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A wheeled cart that carries those without legs is a mobility aid, valuable to its few users but a niche.
Who is paid. The users buy it for themselves, and many makers could build such a cart, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Chemotactic Artificial Jellyfish
Big Jelly, Rudy Rucker (w/B. Sterling) · 1994
A soft swimming machine inspired by jellyfish that homes in on chosen chemicals in water.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A swimming machine that finds chosen chemicals in water serves a narrow task such as tracing pollution.
Who is paid. Water firms and survey crews are assumed to buy it, and soft swimmers like this could be made by many laboratories.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dope Mule Robot
Heavy Weather, Bruce Sterling · 1994
A hopping spherical robot that carries illicit cargo across terrain.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A hopping robot that carries small loads over rough ground is a niche carrier, whatever its cargo in the story.
Who is paid. Whoever needs goods moved across open country pays, and such a machine is simple enough for many to build.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Virtuality Helmet ('Virching' Helmet)
Heavy Weather, Bruce Sterling · 1994
A headset that lets someone on the ground fly a remote aircraft through an immersive view.
built in the 2010s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A headset that puts the operator inside the view of a distant aircraft is a better control for flying it, a niche.
Who is paid. Firms that fly such aircraft buy it, and many makers could build such a headset, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Nurse Drone
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
A bigger airborne platform that recharges and supports a fleet of smaller drones.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A larger flyer that recharges a fleet of small ones is support equipment, valued only as part of the fleet.
Who is paid. Firms that run pilotless craft pay for it as part of the fleet, and any maker can add it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robotic Abattoir
Freedom's Landing, Anne McCaffrey · 1996
An automated meat processing plant where robots butcher carcasses.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A plant where robots do the butchering would cut the labour cost of meat processing.
Who is paid. Meat firms buy it, and since many could build such lines the plant-equipment makers with works and service networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Medicine, biotech and longevity · 23
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Anti-Onc Cream
Earth, David Brin · 1990
A topical cream that eliminates cancers of the skin.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Skin cancers are among the commonest cancers, and a cream that clears them would replace a great deal of surgery.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and a new drug is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Eloi
Queen of Angels, Greg Bear · 1990
A class of people whose lifespans have been stretched by medical treatments.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the treatment that stretches life, and holding off old age is about the deepest need there is.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and I assumed the treatments are new medicines, which are protected from copying for a long while, so their maker keeps much of the gain.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Fabricow
Piecework, David Brin · 1990
Livestock engineered to grow designed biological machines inside their bodies like a factory.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Animals that grow designed living machines would be a new way of manufacturing.
Who is paid. Manufacturers would buy the output, and the breeding stock could be copied, so farms and firms that already own herds and land collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mammontelephas
Earth, David Brin · 1990
An extinct woolly elephant brought back to life using its recovered DNA.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A revived extinct animal is a draw for parks and collections, which is a niche.
Who is paid. Parks and zoos pay, and since the animals breed, established breeders and park owners collect instead of the reviver.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Oxygen Hip Flask
Earth, David Brin · 1990
A pocket-sized canister that supplies clean oxygen for a person to inhale on the go.
already existed before the story (the 1900s)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Pocket oxygen is a convenience for a few.
Who is paid. Shoppers pay, and many firms can fill a canister so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Purza the Pukha
The Rowan, Anne McCaffrey · 1990
A cuddly toy fitted with sensors that watches over young hospital patients.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A watchful toy comforts sick children and eases the work of a ward, which is a niche.
Who is paid. Hospitals would buy it for their wards, and a toy with sensors is easy for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
EverRest Cryotorium
Flare, Roger Zelazny · 1992
A service that freezes the dead and stores them permanently in orbit.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Storing the frozen dead in orbit is a costly kind of burial for a few.
Who is paid. Families would pay, and other firms could offer the same, so established funeral firms and launch companies collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Readout Skin
Steel Beach, John Varley · 1992
Skin modified to show text and images while looking natural otherwise.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Skin that shows pictures and words is a novelty for a healthy body, not a need.
Who is paid. People would pay to have it done, and several clinics and device makers could offer it, so established ones collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Diagnostic Sleeve
Gripping Hand, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1993
An arm cuff that identifies ailments and delivers the right drugs.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A cuff that finds what is wrong and gives the right drug would put everyday doctoring in the home.
Who is paid. I assumed people buy it for themselves; several firms could build it, so established makers of medical devices and the drug firms that fill it collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Embryo Visualization
Daughter of Elysium, Joan Slonczewski · 1994
An imaging method showing how an embryo's cells grow in three dimensions.
built in the 1990s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Watching an embryo grow in depth is a tool for researchers and fertility clinics.
Who is paid. Laboratories and clinics would buy it, and several makers of imaging equipment could build it, so those makers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tannin-Secretion Pills
Crashlander, Larry Niven · 1994
A pill that makes the skin produce more pigment to shield it from sunlight.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A pill that darkens the skin against the sun is a convenience that creams and shade already provide.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and a new drug is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Composite Living
The Day the Aliens Came, Robert Sheckley · 1995
Joining with other living species into a merged organism.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Merging with other species is a way of living in the story, not a product anyone sells.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Freedom Machine
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
A contraceptive made with molecular-scale machinery.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Reliable birth control is wanted by a large share of adults, though other methods already exist.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and other makers could copy it, so established drug firms with the shops and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Microde
Armed Memory, Jim Smith · 1995
A fictional engineered virus aimed at one person to alter their traits in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A banned tool for changing a chosen person is a niche; assumed a state agency is the only buyer.
Who is paid. A government pays, and the laboratories that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sites
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
Implanted micro-devices that fire muscles in order to boost physical strength.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Extra strength for a healthy body is wanted by some workers and athletes, which is a niche.
Who is paid. People would pay to have them fitted, and other firms could copy the implants, so established makers of medical devices collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Video Unit
Idoru, William Gibson · 1996
A camera wired into the optic nerve to restore sight to blind people.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Giving sight back to blind people is worth an industry of its own, though most people would never need it.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and once the design was known other device makers could copy it, so established implant makers and eye clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Diveskin
Starfish, Peter Watts · 1999
A dive suit plus body modifications that let people work at crushing ocean depths.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Working at crushing depths serves a few deep-sea trades.
Who is paid. Firms working on the sea floor would buy it for their crews, and makers of diving gear could build it, so those firms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Eyecaps
Starfish, Peter Watts · 1999
Lenses fitted over the eyes that let divers see in the deep sea.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Seeing in the deep sea serves a few divers.
Who is paid. Firms that employ divers would buy them, and I assumed other lens makers could copy them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Genejack
Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999
A genetically engineered human bred for manual labour, portrayed critically in the game.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the breeding of people made for labour, which would give a state its workforce to order, though few societies would allow it.
Who is paid. I assumed the state runs the breeding, as with other ways of turning out people to order; the method could be copied, so the laboratories and suppliers serving it collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Homo Superior
Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999
A new branch of humanity produced by extreme genetic engineering.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the engineering of a child's genes before birth, which many parents would pay dearly for.
Who is paid. I assumed parents pay; the methods could be copied, so established fertility clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Medical Mantis
Starfish, Peter Watts · 1999
A remotely operated machine through which a distant doctor examines and operates on patients.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Letting a distant doctor operate would change the cost of care far from hospitals.
Who is paid. Hospitals and remote employers pay, and makers of surgical equipment collect since rivals could build the same machine.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Neuroinduction Field
Starfish, Peter Watts · 1999
A field that holds a patient motionless by acting on the nervous system.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Holding a patient still without drugs is a handy tool for hospitals.
Who is paid. Hospitals pay, and makers of medical equipment collect since the device can be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Recycler
Starfish, Peter Watts · 1999
A surgically fitted implant that lets a diver breathe by drawing oxygen from the surrounding ocean.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It serves only people who work under the sea, which is a niche.
Who is paid. I assumed diving and undersea firms pay to fit their workers; other makers could copy the implant, so established makers of medical devices collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Mind and neurotechnology · 13
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dazer
Earth, David Brin · 1990
Someone who uses body-awareness training to get high on their own brain chemistry.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. This names a person, but the training behind it, a learned way to get high on your own body, is a pastime for a few.
Who is paid. I judged the training: people would pay for lessons themselves, and any trained teacher could offer them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Donnersprache
Silent Thunder, Dean Ing · 1991
A broadcasting device that entrances listeners so a speaker seems far more magnetic.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A broadcast that holds listeners spellbound by one speaker would be worth a great deal to any ruler who wanted a crowd.
Who is paid. I assumed a government or its ruling party pays, as in the story, and the firms that already build broadcasting gear could copy it and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tiersian Therapy
Red Orc's Revenge, Philip Jose Farmer · 1991
A psychotherapy where the patient adopts and lives as a fictional character they pick.
built in 1995, 4 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Living as a chosen character is a single method of therapy among many.
Who is paid. Patients would pay for it themselves, and any therapist could offer the method, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Direct Interface
Steel Beach, John Varley · 1992
A brain link that turns intended words into typed text on a computer.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Writing by thought is a convenience, since keyboards and speech already do the job.
Who is paid. Ordinary people would get it inside gadgets they buy, and once it works it is easy to copy, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Disney Therapy
Steel Beach, John Varley · 1992
A treatment where people escape into a nostalgic simulated past to ease mental strain.
already existed before the story (1955)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A rest cure in a made-up past is a comfort for the strained, close to a holiday.
Who is paid. People would pay for their own visits, and the leisure firms that already own parks, stories and well-known names could copy it and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Neuro-netsukes
Rim, Alexander Besher · 1994
A tiny carved figure that holds a copy of a living person's mind.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A kept copy of a living mind answers the most basic wish of all, not to be lost at death.
Who is paid. I assume the copy can be woken or restored, which the description does not say. People would pay whatever they could to keep a copy of themselves, and since the method could be copied the firms that already hold the stores, bodies and clinics would collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
VR Dyslexia
Rim, Alexander Besher · 1994
A condition of confusion and disorientation after too much time in virtual reality.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is an ailment from too much time in a made world, not something anyone would buy.
Who is paid. Nothing is made or sold here, so there is no buyer and no seller.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
XV
Mother of Storms, John Barnes · 1994
A medium that lets people feel someone else's conscious experience directly.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2080s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Feeling another person's experience directly would be an entertainment and news industry of its own.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and since the method could be copied the owners of the stories, stars and channels people already follow would collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Softlight
Softlight Sins, Peter F. Hamilton · 1997
A fictional mind-control technique that wipes a person's identity in the story.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.
Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Emblok
Earth Made of Glass, John Barnes · 1998
A machine that loads memories into a regrown brain like copying files.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Loading a stored mind into a regrown brain is the restoring step of bringing a person back, which takes away the finality of death.
Who is paid. People would pay for themselves and their families, and once one firm had done it others could, so the hospitals and medical firms people already trust would collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Psypyx
Earth Made of Glass, John Barnes · 1998
A device that captures what someone perceives and thinks so it can be stored and replayed.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Capturing all a person perceives and thinks for keeping answers the basic wish not to be lost at death.
Who is paid. I assume the capture is full enough to stand as a copy of the person, as the story intends. People would pay whatever they could to keep a copy of themselves, and since the method could be copied the firms that already hold the stores, bodies and clinics would collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Focusing
A Deepness in the Sky, Vernor Vinge · 1999
An infectious microorganism that sharpens the concentration of whoever carries it.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Sharper concentration would lift the work of anyone who uses their head; the story bans it because it is forced on people, but I judged it as if taken by choice.
Who is paid. I assumed workers and students take it by choice, and a microbe can be grown by anyone once it exists, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Lucid Dreamer
Starfish, Peter Watts · 1999
A machine that makes sure the sleeper gets dreaming sleep.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Making sure a sleeper dreams is a small aid to good rest.
Who is paid. Sleepers would buy it for themselves, and it is easy to copy, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Transport and mobility · 14
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
General Bodies Tortoise
Sparrowhawk, Thomas A. Easton · 1990
A living vehicle bred from reptile genes and steered through embedded electronics to carry riders.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A living animal bred to carry riders does a car's job more slowly, so I judge it a curiosity.
Who is paid. People buy it as they would a car, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the breeders and vehicle dealers that already hold stock, workshops and showrooms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Magnus-Effect Ambulance
Earth, David Brin · 1990
A medical rescue aircraft kept aloft by spinning cylinders.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A rescue aircraft held up by spinning cylinders is another way to do what rescue aircraft already do.
Who is paid. Hospitals and rescue services buy it, and the established aircraft builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Roachster
Sparrowhawk, Thomas A. Easton · 1990
A living car grown from insect-like genes and driven through embedded control hardware.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A car that is grown and not built is a curiosity beside the ordinary car unless it is much cheaper, which the description does not say.
Who is paid. People buy it as they would a car, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the breeders and vehicle dealers that already hold stock, workshops and showrooms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Deliverator Car
Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992
A fast, armoured car used for time-pressured food delivery.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A fast armoured car for rushing food to the door is a costly way to do a job a scooter does.
Who is paid. Delivery firms buy it, and it is an ordinary car made faster and tougher, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hoverlimo
Steel Beach, John Varley · 1992
A hire vehicle riding on an air cushion, with a subservient onboard assistant.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Riding on a cushion of air suits marsh, shallows and ice but is noisier and thirstier than wheels elsewhere, so it stays a niche.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the hire car buys it and charges riders, and any workshop could build it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
MagnaPoon
Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992
A magnetic tether a skateboarder fires at a passing car to be towed along.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A tow from a passing car is a trick for a few daring riders.
Who is paid. Riders buy it, and a magnet on a line is simple to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Smartwheels
Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992
Wheels whose spokes extend and retract to smooth out rough ground.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Wheels that smooth out rough ground are a comfort on bad roads.
Who is paid. Operators of vehicles on rough ground buy them, and many wheel makers could build them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Antiturbulence Wings
Deep Eddy, Bruce Sterling · 1993
Aircraft wings that actively smooth out bumpy air for a gentler ride.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A smoother ride is a comfort for passengers and saves a little wear, which is a convenience.
Who is paid. Airlines pay for it through the aircraft, and the established aircraft builders fit it and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Escalladder
Crashlander, Larry Niven · 1994
A powered ladder that carries you upward while you stand still.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It moves people between floors as lifts and stairs already do, so the gain is a convenience.
Who is paid. Building owners buy it, and the firms that already fit and service lifts collect because the machine itself is easy to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flexible Car Map
Heavy Weather, Bruce Sterling · 1994
A bendable map display that pops out of a car's dashboard.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Route guidance in the car is a convenience, and a screen that bends and pops out adds only a little to it.
Who is paid. Drivers pay for it with the car, and the car makers and the firms that already hold maps of every road collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Smart Piston Spokes
Heavy Weather, Bruce Sterling · 1994
A vehicle that moves on sensing piston legs that adjust to rough ground.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Legs that feel the ground carry a vehicle over rough country, which is a niche.
Who is paid. Operators buy it for their work, and many builders could make it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Chevaline
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
A single-rider walking robot mount built in the form of a horse.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A robot horse for a lone rider is a pleasure mount and a way across rough ground, not everyday transport.
Who is paid. Riders buy it, and once walking machines work many firms could build them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Smart Bike
Distraction, Bruce Sterling · 1998
A motorbike with computer-assisted steering that keeps itself upright.
built in the 2010s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A motorbike that keeps itself upright is a safer motorbike, which is a feature.
Who is paid. Owners pay for it through the price of the vehicle, and the established vehicle makers fit it and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Face Seal
Starfish, Peter Watts · 1999
A sealed facial mask for diving far below the surface.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A sealed mask for very deep diving serves the few who work far below the surface.
Who is paid. Deep sea operators buy it, and it is specialist kit several suppliers could make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Energy and power · 6
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sunshade-Photocell Collector
Earth, David Brin · 1990
A whimsical canopy that shades people while gathering solar power.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A canopy that shades people and makes a little power is a convenience.
Who is paid. People buy it for gardens and outings, and any maker can produce it so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Spotlight of Heat (Orbital Microwaves)
Fallen Angels, Larry Niven w/Pournelle, Flynn · 1991
A satellite array beaming microwave energy down to warm a chosen patch of ground.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A small prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Warming one chosen patch of ground from orbit helps only the few people on that patch.
Who is paid. A government pays because the warmth cannot be charged for one by one, and whoever built the satellites controls them.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Canola Oil
Virtual Light, William Gibson · 1993
Rapeseed oil processed so vehicles can burn it for power.
already existed before the story (the 1900s)
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A crop oil that vehicles can burn is worth an industry, though the real thing turned out a modest extra fuel.
Who is paid. Fuel sellers and vehicle fleets buy it, and since the processing is easy to copy those who already own the farmland collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Solar Electric Paint - Black Power
The Woman in Del Rey Crater, Larry Niven · 1995
A coating sprayed on any surface that turns it into a generator of electricity from sunlight.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A sprayed coating that turns any surface into a solar generator would change what power costs.
Who is paid. Builders and owners of roofs and walls buy it, and the inventor of a new material can keep the recipe protected for a time.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Soletta
Green Mars, Kim Stanley Robinson · 1995
Giant orbiting mirrors that concentrate sunlight onto a planet to warm and power it.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Mirrors that warm and light a whole planet would make it fit to settle.
Who is paid. Only a government could fund it because nobody can be charged for sunlight one by one, and whoever builds the mirrors controls them.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Quantum Power
Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999
Electricity produced by splitting particles of light.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a new way to make electricity from light would change what power costs.
Who is paid. Power companies buy the plants, and a method this strange would be very hard for others to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Materials, manufacturing and construction · 21
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Monomol Mesh Armor
Queen of Angels, Greg Bear · 1990
Flexible protective mesh for body areas that must bend, such as knees and elbows.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Flexible armour for joints is a useful part of protective kit, which is a niche.
Who is paid. Armies and police pay, assuming they are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold armour contracts supply it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sonomagnetic Fabric
Earth, David Brin · 1990
A textile that harvests energy from surrounding sound.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Cloth that gathers power from surrounding sound would keep small worn devices running without a battery, which is a convenience.
Who is paid. Makers of clothing and gadgets buy it, and many textile firms could copy it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Arachnofiber Uniforms
Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992
Protective work clothing woven from very strong fibre for delivery workers.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Tough work clothing saves some injuries for people in risky jobs, which is a niche.
Who is paid. Employers buy it for their workers, and the fibre and workwear firms that already supply them make it without any one keeping others out.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Reality Graphics
A Fire Upon The Deep, Vernor Vinge · 1992
A design system where the finished digital model directly becomes the manufactured object.
already existed before the story (the 1980s)
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Unlike the make-anything machines, this is described as a design system and not as a machine that builds any object from raw matter, so I judged it as a tool that lets firms go straight from a finished design to the made thing, which changes what it costs to bring goods to market.
Who is paid. Firms that design and make goods buy it, since a design system is a tool of the trade and not a home appliance, and once the method is known the established makers of design tools and factory machines, who already have those customers, collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sintered Armorgel
Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992
A protective material that stays soft in normal motion but stiffens instantly when struck.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Soft armour that stiffens when struck is better protective kit, which is a niche.
Who is paid. Armies and police pay, assuming they are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold armour contracts supply it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Transdress
The California Voodoo Game, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes · 1992
A see-through garment whose surface can display countless changing designs.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A garment that shows changing designs is a fashion novelty.
Who is paid. People buy it to wear, and the cloth can be copied, so clothing brands with shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Semisentient Plastic
Ring, Stephen Baxter · 1994
A tough protective film that shields and preserves whatever it covers.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A tough film that protects and preserves what it covers is better packaging.
Who is paid. Shippers and stores buy it, and many plastics firms could match a film, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Smart Rope
Heavy Weather, Bruce Sterling · 1994
A multi-strand cable that bends and moves on command from a control glove.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A cable that moves on command is a clever tool for climbers, riggers and rescue crews.
Who is paid. Working crews buy it, and many equipment firms could build one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Fabricules
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
Textile made of tiny particles that keep themselves spotless without washing.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Cloth that never needs washing would save most homes a regular chore and its cost.
Who is paid. People buy it as clothing, and once the method spreads the clothing brands and shops they already buy from collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Filter Wheel
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
A molecular sorting device that pulls one chosen compound out of a fluid in pure form.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Pulling any chosen compound out of a fluid in pure form would change the cost of clean water, chemicals and mining.
Who is paid. Chemical, water and mining firms buy it, and once it can be copied the makers of process equipment who already supply them collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Lithocule
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
Microscopic smart bricks that assemble themselves into structures.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2080s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Tiny bricks that build structures by themselves would change the cost of construction.
Who is paid. Builders buy them, and once they can be copied the established makers of building materials collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Matter Compiler
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
A machine that assembles finished goods from individual atoms following a digital blueprint.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Building finished goods from atoms to a plan would change how nearly everything is made.
Who is paid. Assuming a home or shop machine, people buy it and its feedstock, and a machine that makes anything can make more of itself, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mite
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
A dust-sized machine built for one specific job.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Dust-sized machines each built for a job would be a new kind of tool for cleaning, repair, sensing and medicine.
Who is paid. Firms buy them for their work, assuming many jobs are served, and once one maker shows how, established equipment makers copy and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Toner
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
Debris from worn-out molecular machines that accumulates as dust.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is dust left by worn-out tiny machines, a waste and not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold; it is debris that gathers by itself.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Nanotech Buildings
Idoru, William Gibson · 1996
Huge towers grown from molecularly engineered fibres.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Growing huge towers from engineered fibre would change the cost of building, which is more than simply building taller.
Who is paid. Developers buy them, as with towers today, and once the method is known the big builders with land and crews collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Graffiti-Eating Finish
All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999
A self-cleaning wall coating that breaks down paint sprayed onto it.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Walls that clean off sprayed paint save owners a recurring nuisance.
Who is paid. Building owners and cities buy it, and a coating can be studied and matched by many paint firms.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Matter Editation
Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999
A way to freely rewrite the properties of atoms.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Unlike the make-anything machines this makes materials and not finished goods, so turning common stuff into any scarce material changes costs across the industries that use materials without changing how most people live.
Who is paid. Manufacturers and miners buy the process, and since it is a method and not a machine that can copy itself, I assumed it spreads once shown and the firms with plants and customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Nano-Paste
Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999
Swarms of microscopic machines that turn nearby raw matter into a chosen item.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Tiny machines that turn nearby matter into any chosen item would make most goods nearly free.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, assuming it is sold for home use, and a thing that makes anything makes more of itself, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Nanofax
All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999
Scanning a solid object in one place and reproducing a duplicate of it somewhere far away.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Copying any solid object at a far-off place makes most goods nearly free and ends much shipping.
Who is paid. People buy or use it, assuming a home or shop machine, and a machine that copies anything copies itself, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Organic Superlubricant
Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999
An adaptive biological lubricant that improves itself with use.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A lubricant that improves with use is a better supply for machines, not a new industry.
Who is paid. Machine owners buy it, and a living lubricant can be grown by many suppliers, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Silksteel
Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999
A fibre that is both extremely strong under tension and very flexible.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A fibre both very strong and very flexible would change the cost of cables, aircraft and structures.
Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Weapons and warfare · 24
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Assassin Bird
Sparrowhawk, Thomas A. Easton · 1990
A fictional genetically altered bird used as a weapon in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A bird bred to kill is a specialist tool for a narrow trade.
Who is paid. State agencies would pay, and since a buyer or a rival could breed from the birds once they exist, no breeder holds them alone and the suppliers such agencies already use collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Knife Missile
Use of Weapons, Iain M Banks · 1990
A fictional small flying bladed drone weapon used for protection and combat in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Machines that find and attack targets by themselves would change how armies and police forces are staffed and equipped.
Who is paid. Governments pay, and since the parts are widely made and the designs easy to copy, the arms firms with the standing contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tracking Bracelet
Shadowspeer, Patricia Jo Clayton · 1990
A fictional coercive wristband used to restrain and threaten its wearer in the story.
already existed before the story (the 1980s)
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. As described the wristband holds its wearer by threat of harm, which makes it a tool of coercion like a bomb planted in the body, and no one may lawfully buy or use it.
Who is paid. Nothing is lawfully sold, so there is no payer and no seller to keep anything, though a band that only tracked would find buyers.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dentata
Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992
A fictional personal defence device meant to deter sexual assault in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A worn device against assault would matter to its users but be bought by few.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and it is simple enough that many firms could make it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
High-Voltage Cuffs
Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992
A fictional electrified sleeve accessory used for self-defence in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Electrified sleeves are a personal protection gadget for a few cautious buyers.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy them, and a battery and wiring in a garment is easy for anyone to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Loogie Gun
Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992
A non-lethal launcher that coats a suspect in a sticky mass so they cannot move.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A launcher that glues a suspect in place is a niche police tool.
Who is paid. Police forces buy it, and it is simple to copy, so the suppliers police already use collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Rat Thing
Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992
A fictional cyborg guard animal that protects property in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A guard animal rebuilt as a machine protects property better than a dog but serves a niche of security buyers.
Who is paid. Property owners and security firms pay, and since others could learn to join animal and machine once one firm had done it, the security suppliers that already serve those buyers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Reason Hypervelocity Railgun
Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992
A fictional heavy personal gun carried by a lead character in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A new way of throwing a projectile from a soldier's gun is a variation on weapons armies already have.
Who is paid. Armies pay, and such guns are easy to copy, so the arms makers that already hold supply contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Chunker
Virtual Light, William Gibson · 1993
A fictional less-lethal crowd control launcher used by police in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A launcher that stops crowds without killing is a niche tool for police.
Who is paid. Police forces buy it, and it is simple to copy, so the suppliers police already use collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Fractal Knife
Virtual Light, William Gibson · 1993
A fictional exotic blade that appears as a hand weapon in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. An exotic blade is a curiosity for a few buyers, since a knife already cuts well enough.
Who is paid. A few people buy one for themselves, and assuming others can learn to make the edge once it is shown, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wandering Mine
Half the Day is Night, Maureen F. McHugh · 1994
A fictional mobile explosive weapon that roams on legs in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A mine that moves to find its target is a cleverer version of an old munition and stays a niche in an army's stores.
Who is paid. Armies pay, and such a device is simple to copy, so the munitions makers that already hold supply contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ballisticules
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
Fictional microscopic projectile machines used in combat in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2080s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Machines too small to see that are fired in combat are one more kind of ammunition, a narrow use.
Who is paid. Armies would pay, and being hard to make does not stop others copying it once one maker has shown the way, so the established arms suppliers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cookie-Cutters
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
A fictional microscopic weapon used for assassination in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2080s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A weapon too small to see is a specialist tool for killing chosen people, a narrow use.
Who is paid. Secret services pay, and being strange does not make it hard to copy, so once one is built the arms makers that already supply them can make it too and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Immunocules
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
A fictional cloud of tiny defensive machines shielding people from hostile airborne devices.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2080s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A cloud of tiny guardians against hostile airborne machines would be a basic public defence in a world that has such threats.
Who is paid. Governments pay because no one can be charged one by one for clean air, and being hard to design does not stop others copying the machines once they exist, so the established defence suppliers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Satellite Ion Cannon
Command and Conquer, Westwood Games · 1995
A fictional orbital beam weapon used for precision strikes in a war game.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A heavy beam or a weapon fired from orbit lets a state strike or defend across great distances and would take a large share of what it spends on arms.
Who is paid. Only governments pay, and the few shipyards and space builders that already hold such contracts are the ones able to deliver it, so they collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sights
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
A fictional eyewear aiming aid paired with a concealed firearm in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Eyewear that aims a gun for the wearer is a useful add-on and not much more.
Who is paid. Armies and police pay, assuming they are the main buyers, and the optics and arms firms that already supply them collect because the idea is easy to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Skullgun
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
A fictional concealed implanted firearm carried by characters in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A weapon built into the body appeals to a few bodyguards, soldiers and enthusiasts and stays a niche.
Who is paid. Assuming it is legal to buy as in the story, individuals pay for themselves, and the clinics and surgeons already able to do such work collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Combat Wasp
The Reality Dysfunction, Peter F. Hamilton · 1996
A fictional space combat drone used in fleet battles in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Assuming wars are fought in space, warships for it would be an industry of their own.
Who is paid. Only governments field war fleets, and the few yards already able to build large spacecraft would win the orders.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Helmet Visor Display
The Tank Lords, David Drake · 1997
A see-through display in a combat helmet that shows the wearer key information.
built in the 2010s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A display inside a helmet is a helpful aid for soldiers and pilots rather than a new power.
Who is paid. Armies pay, and the makers of military helmets and electronics, who already hold the contracts, add it and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Infowar Operation
Distraction, Bruce Sterling · 1998
A campaign against an opponent's information systems, as portrayed in the story.
built in the 1990s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Attacking a rival's networks is not a single device, but the tools and skilled crews for it are worth an industry of their own.
Who is paid. Governments pay, and the work needs skill rather than factories or secrets, so many crews can do it and none keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Netwar
Distraction, Bruce Sterling · 1998
A form of conflict aimed at an adversary's computer networks, as portrayed in the story.
built in the 1990s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Attacking a rival's networks is not a single device, but the tools and skilled crews for it are worth an industry of their own.
Who is paid. Governments pay, and the work needs skill rather than factories or secrets, so many crews can do it and none keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Belt Sword
All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999
A fictional concealed blade hidden in clothing in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A blade hidden in a belt is a novelty for a few buyers.
Who is paid. A few people buy one for themselves, and any metal workshop can make it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Chain Gun
All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999
A fictional improvised projectile weapon used in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It is one more kind of firearm, a modest step over the guns armies already carry.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Exoskeleton
A Good Old-Fashioned Future, Bruce Sterling · 1999
A powered armoured suit for soldiers.
already existed before the story (the 1960s)
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A powered armoured suit would let each foot soldier carry and survive far more, changing how infantry fights.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Surveillance, identity and control · 21
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Deadman's Device
Shadowspeer, Patricia Jo Clayton · 1990
An under-skin implant carried by an agent on a dangerous assignment that reacts if they die.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. An implant that reacts when an agent dies serves a small number of people on dangerous work.
Who is paid. Spy and military services pay, and it could be copied, so their existing suppliers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dustmice
Queen of Angels, Greg Bear · 1990
Minute robot sensors released at crime scenes to gather trace evidence for investigators.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Tiny machines that gather traces at crime scenes speed up one part of police work, a niche.
Who is paid. Police laboratories pay, and the machines could be copied, so existing suppliers of police equipment collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Portable Ident-Plate
Earth, David Brin · 1990
A slim handheld reader that records a person's fingerprint.
already existed before the story (the 1960s)
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A handheld fingerprint reader gives reliable identity from the body, which changes police and border work.
Who is paid. Police and border services pay, and such readers are easy to copy, so the firms already supplying them collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Separated At Birth Database
Virtual Light, William Gibson · 1993
A registry of lost people searchable by which celebrity they look like.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A register of lost people searched by likeness helps in a few searches.
Who is paid. Assumes police keep the register; gathering such pictures is open to many, so the firms already building police records collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Holo (License)
Rim, Alexander Besher · 1994
A holographic identity and driving permit card.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A holographic licence card is a harder-to-forge version of a card people already carry.
Who is paid. Licensing offices pay, and the card is easy to copy, so the printers that already make identity documents collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tracing Glasses
Case Closed (Detective Conan), Gosho Aoyama · 1994
Eyeglasses that show where hidden tracking beacons are, to follow suspects.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Glasses that show where tracking beacons are help a few investigators follow suspects.
Who is paid. Police forces pay, and gear sold to them goes through the firms that already hold their supply contracts.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Aerostat Monitor
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
A small hovering networked drone that watches an area and talks to others of its kind.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Cheap flying watchers change the cost of policing, border watch and scouting enough to be an industry of their own.
Who is paid. Police forces and armies pay, and since many firms can build such craft the money goes to those already holding security and defence supply contracts.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dog Pod Grid
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
A floating swarm of semi-autonomous airborne units forming a security barrier.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A floating wall of guard machines would change the cost of protecting borders and whole districts, enough for an industry.
Who is paid. Governments pay for such barriers, and many firms could build the units, so those already holding security and defence contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Jodie Grid
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
Marker dots worn on the face so cameras can capture its shape and expressions.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Dots that help cameras capture a face are a tool for performers and film makers, a niche.
Who is paid. Studios buy them, and marker dots are simple for anyone to make so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Nanomachine Lidar
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
A laser ranging system that scans surroundings with light to measure and map them.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Measuring and mapping what cannot be seen by eye changes the costs of travel, mapping and digging, an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Transport, mapping and mining firms buy it, and it can be copied, so established instrument makers with factories and customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sky-Eye
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
A small hovering camera drone that watches over an area.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A small hovering camera over an area changes what police and guards can see, like the other flying watchers.
Who is paid. Spy and police services pay, and once made it can be copied, so the firms already supplying such services collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wearable White-Noise Generator
Idoru, William Gibson · 1996
A personal gadget emitting noise that spoils any attempt to record the wearer's voice.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Spoiling recordings of your own voice is wanted by a minority who care strongly about privacy.
Who is paid. It is worn by a person and not fitted to a room, so ordinary people are assumed to buy it, and any maker could copy it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Webeye
The Ringworld Throne, Larry Niven · 1996
A spray-on communications film that sees, hears, zooms and projects images.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2080s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A film sprayed on any surface that sees, hears and shows pictures would put cameras and screens anywhere.
Who is paid. Nothing says it watches people, so firms are assumed to be the main buyers, and once made others could copy the film so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Automated DNA Typing
Gattaca, Andrew Niccol · 1997
A rapid genetic testing machine that checks samples against a stored register.
already existed before the story (the 1980s)
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Quick, sure identity from a body sample would reshape police work, border checks and hiring, enough for an industry.
Who is paid. Governments pay to run the register and the checks, and many laboratories can make the machines, so existing test suppliers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Boink Biosensor
The Cobra Event, Richard Preston · 1997
A portable detector that warns of dangerous germs or toxins in the environment.
already existed before the story (1962)
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Reliable early warning of deadly germs or poisons would protect whole cities and is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Governments pay for public safety, and several firms could make such detectors, so those already supplying health and defence agencies collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Retinal Implant
The Neutronium Alchemist, Peter F. Hamilton · 1997
An eye implant that records and broadcasts everything the wearer looks at.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Recording and sending out all a person sees is a life record, which many people would want if it worked.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it for themselves, and the firms that already make implants and carry the pictures collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bugged Money
Distraction, Bruce Sterling · 1998
Banknotes with hidden microphones planted inside them.
already existed before the story (the 1980s)
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A better way to overhear people is a specialist tool for police and spies, not a wide market.
Who is paid. Police and spy services pay, and it is easy to copy, so the firms already supplying them collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Profile Sniffers
Distraction, Bruce Sterling · 1998
Software that mines browsing logs to infer what kind of person a user is.
built in the 1990s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Working out what kind of person a user is from their browsing changes how selling and advertising are done.
Who is paid. Advertisers and sellers pay, and the software is easy to copy, so the firms that already hold the browsing records collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dustmote
A Deepness in the Sky, Vernor Vinge · 1999
Dust-sized networked sensors that link together to monitor their surroundings.
already existed before the story (1998)
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Dust-sized sensors that link up and report on their surroundings would change how farms, factories, buildings and cities are watched over, enough for an industry.
Who is paid. Assuming general use and not only spying, firms buy them to monitor their own sites, and since the sensors could be copied the makers that already own factories for tiny electronics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Palm Scan
All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999
Hand-print identification used to confirm who is using a cash machine.
already existed before the story (the 1960s)
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Checking a hand at a cash machine is a lock on an account, a modest gain over a secret code.
Who is paid. Banks pay because the description puts it on a cash machine, and many makers can build handprint readers so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sonar Pistol
Starfish, Peter Watts · 1999
A handheld sonar that helps divers find the seabed and objects in dark water.
already existed before the story (the 1960s)
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A handheld sonar for divers is a tool for a niche trade.
Who is paid. Diving and salvage firms pay, and it is easy to copy, so the firms already making diving and marine gear collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Food, agriculture and environment · 7
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Garbage Mine
Earth, David Brin · 1990
Mining landfill and waste streams for materials, creating new recovery businesses.
already existed before the story (the 1960s)
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Recovering metals and materials from old dumps would be an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Factories buy the recovered materials, and the digging is easy to copy, so those who already own the dump sites collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Genetic Ark
Earth, David Brin · 1990
Huge sealed habitats that keep many species alive to preserve animal genetic diversity.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A store of living things is insurance against loss, valued by the public but not something that changes daily life.
Who is paid. No visitor or user can be charged, so governments pay, and I assumed any capable builder can put one up, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Home Termite Habitat
Natulife, David Brin · 1994
A kitchen appliance for farming insects at home as food.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Raising insects for food in the kitchen is a niche taste.
Who is paid. Households buy it, and a box for insects is easy for any appliance firm to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Yeast-Beast Machine
Natulife, David Brin · 1994
A machine that cultivates meat from cells inside a tank.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Meat without animals at a low price would reshape the whole meat trade, though it replaces one food and not the whole diet.
Who is paid. Shoppers pay whether this is a home machine or a factory one, which the description does not say, and once the method is known many firms can copy it, so the meat packers and food brands that already reach the shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Geotect
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
A designer who shapes land and builds whole physical landscapes.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. This is a profession and not a product, so I judged the work it sells: making and shaping whole landscapes to order would be an industry of its own.
Who is paid. I assumed developers and cities hire these designers, and it is a skilled trade that many people can train for, so no one seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Smartcoral Reef
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
An engineered reef that draws in seawater to supply big coastal settlements.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2080s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A reef that draws in the sea to supply big coastal settlements would be a water business of its own.
Who is paid. A government pays for the water supply of its coast, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the marine builders and growers that already hold such public works contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Spook
SOLACE, Jeff Noon · 1998
A bottled plain drink with flavouring released by turning its lid.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. This is a small convenience or novelty in what people drink.
Who is paid. Households buy it, and since the recipe is easy to copy the drink brands that already own shelf space collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Home and everyday life · 19
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bee Zapper
Earth, David Brin · 1990
A laser gadget that picks off bees and other insects.
already existed before the story (the 1960s)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Picking off insects around the house is a convenience, judged here as a household gadget.
Who is paid. People buy it for the garden, and the aiming and the beam are parts many electronics makers could put together.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bioform House
Sparrowhawk, Thomas A. Easton · 1990
A dwelling grown from an engineered plant.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A house that grows itself would cut the cost of building homes, assuming it grows cheaply.
Who is paid. People buy it as a home, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the growers, builders and landowners that already hold stock, sites and the trade of housing collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cannibal Grass
Sparrowhawk, Thomas A. Easton · 1990
A bioengineered lawn plant that guards a house against intruders.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. The story's world bans it, so it is a hazard nobody may lawfully buy or plant.
Who is paid. Nothing is lawfully sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hanky Bush
Sparrowhawk, Thomas A. Easton · 1990
A shrub bred so its leaves serve as handy tissues.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Leaves that serve as tissues replace a cheap paper product.
Who is paid. People buy it for the home or garden, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the nurseries and garden shops that already hold stock and shelves collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Live Carpet
Queen of Angels, Greg Bear · 1990
A living floor covering that consumes the dirt and debris that falls onto it.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A carpet that eats its own dirt saves some cleaning of floors.
Who is paid. People buy it for the home, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the breeders and furnishing shops that already hold stock and showrooms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Airbag Jacket
Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992
A garment that inflates cushions to shield the wearer when they hit something.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It protects riders and others at risk of a fall, which is a niche.
Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and inflating cushions are well understood, so many makers can sell it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Smart Pizza Box
Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992
Food packaging with an embedded chip that tracks and reports on its contents.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Packaging that reports on its contents helps a food seller track deliveries a little better.
Who is paid. Food firms buy the boxes and many packaging firms can add a chip, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
U-Stor-It
Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992
A rented self-storage locker that people live in as cheap housing.
already existed before the story (the 1960s)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Living in a storage locker is cheap housing of last resort for a few.
Who is paid. Tenants pay for the space, and the lockers are easy to build, so those who already own the storage sites collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Air-Conditioned Coat
Deep Eddy, Bruce Sterling · 1993
Outerwear with built-in cooling that keeps the wearer comfortable in hot weather.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Clothing that truly keeps a person cool in the heat would matter to everyone who works or travels outdoors in hot places.
Who is paid. Wearers buy it, and I assume the cooling parts are easy to copy, so many clothing makers would compete the gain away.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Stealth House
Virtual Light, William Gibson · 1993
An airtight energy-efficient house whose poor ventilation lets indoor pollutants build up.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. An airtight house saves energy, but the stale air it traps takes back much of the gain.
Who is paid. Households buy it, and sealing a house is easy to copy, so the builders and developers who already hold land and customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Auto-Treadmills (Needle-Gym)
Natulife, David Brin · 1994
A floor that shifts beneath you so you can walk or run in any direction inside a small room.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Walking anywhere inside a small room is mainly useful for exercise and games.
Who is paid. People buy it for the home, and a moving floor could be built by many makers of exercise machines.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pedomotive
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
Stilt-like leg extensions for longer strides, sold as extreme-sports gear.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Leg extensions for longer strides are sports gear for a few enthusiasts.
Who is paid. Households buy them and any sports gear maker can build them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hotdesk
Idoru, William Gibson · 1996
A shared workstation whose surface is itself an input device.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A shared desk you can type and draw on is a modest office convenience.
Who is paid. Offices buy it, and a touch surface built into a desk is something many makers can supply.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Kitchen Korner
Idoru, William Gibson · 1996
A networked smart fridge unit that everyone ends up owning.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Connecting the fridge to a network adds a convenience to something every home already has.
Who is paid. Households buy it, and the smart parts are easy to copy, so the appliance makers who already sell fridges to every home collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Micro-Bachelor
Idoru, William Gibson · 1996
A tiny dwelling built into leftover space in a derelict building.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A tiny home squeezed into leftover space is a niche form of cheap housing.
Who is paid. Households pay for the space, and whoever already owns the building collects because anyone can fit out a nook.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bambakias Hotel
Distraction, Bruce Sterling · 1998
A self-directing building project that works to get itself constructed.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A building project that plans and drives its own construction would change the cost of building.
Who is paid. Developers pay for it, and I assume the directing system is software others could write once it had been shown to work, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Concrete Boxes
Earth Made of Glass, John Barnes · 1998
Bare minimal housing units for people absorbed in virtual worlds.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A bare room adds little of its own, since the value to its occupant lies in the virtual world and not in the box.
Who is paid. Occupants pay for the space, and a plain box is easy to build, so whoever owns the land it stands on collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Smart Tag
All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999
A durable street-art sticker that resists walls built to clean themselves.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A sticker that survives walls built to clean themselves serves a few street artists.
Who is paid. Street artists buy it, and I assumed the glue can be copied, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Snake Contact Lens
All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999
Cosmetic contact lenses that give the eyes reptile-style pupils.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Lenses that give reptile pupils are a cosmetic novelty.
Who is paid. Households buy them and many lens makers can copy them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Exotic physics · 5
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Negative Matter Space Drive
Timemaster, Robert Forward · 1992
A spacecraft engine that moves without expelling propellant, relying on matter of negative mass.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Lifting and pushing craft without burning fuel would cut the cost of flight and of reaching space.
Who is paid. Carriers and launch firms would buy it, and since others could copy the device once it is seen, the established builders of aircraft and spacecraft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mass Pointer
Crashlander, Larry Niven · 1994
A navigation instrument that senses nearby stars while travelling faster than light.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A navigation aid for ships that outrun light is a needed part but only a niche within that trade.
Who is paid. Ship operators would buy it, and the established makers of ship instruments collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Neotopological Metaeuclidean Adjacency
The Hole in the Hole, Terry Bisson · 1994
A gateway linking distant places directly through spacetime.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Moving people and goods across any distance at once would replace most transport and change where people live and work.
Who is paid. Carriers would build the gateways and charge fares, and since others could build them once shown, the firms that already own stations and routes collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flicker Drive
Fremder, Russell Hoban · 1996
A starship engine that jumps instantly between distant points of the galaxy.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Crossing between stars quickly would open new worlds to trade and settlement, an industry of its own, though most people's daily lives would change slowly.
Who is paid. Shipping lines and explorers would pay, and once one yard had built the drive others could, so established shipbuilders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Subtle Knife
The Subtle Knife (His Dark Materials, Book 2), Philip Pullman · 1997
A fantasy blade that slices anything and opens doorways into parallel worlds.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A way into another world could open new lands and materials, though what lies beyond is unknown.
Who is paid. I assume a state would keep a blade that opens other worlds and run its use like a space programme, paying its usual contractors; the description does not say the blade is the only one of its kind.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Society and economy · 16
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dozer
Earth, David Brin · 1990
A label for someone who is abnormally sensitive to rising carbon dioxide levels in the air.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Predictions Registry
Earth, David Brin · 1990
A body that records forecasts people make so their accuracy can be checked later.
built in the 2010s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Keeping score of forecasts is useful to those who rely on forecasters but is a niche.
Who is paid. I assumed news firms and other users of forecasts pay for the scores, and anyone can keep such a record.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Teaching Chair
Rammer, Larry Niven · 1991
A basic automated tutoring seat that instructs its occupant.
built in 2010, 19 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A seat that tutors its occupant well would change the cost of schooling; the real thing so far does less than the promise.
Who is paid. Families pay, and I assumed the lessons are ordinary software that many firms could write.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Burbclave
Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992
A walled private suburb that runs itself like a small sovereign enclave.
already existed before the story (the 1970s)
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Private walled suburbs that run themselves are a big part of the housing trade.
Who is paid. Residents pay to live inside, and since walls and house rules are easy to copy, the owners of well-placed land collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wende
Deep Eddy, Bruce Sterling · 1993
A term for a sweeping shift in a society's culture and politics.
built since, date unclear
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A word for a great shift in society is free for anyone to use.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Electronic Cash
Heavy Weather, Bruce Sterling · 1994
Money that exists only in digital form and moves over networks.
built in 2009, 15 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Paying without cash is worth an industry of its own, and money that lives only on networks is the same service.
Who is paid. Shops and banks pay fees on each sale, and since the card or chip itself is easy to copy, the banks and payment networks that already hold people's accounts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Virtual Childrearing
Natulife, David Brin · 1994
Simulation-based training in caring for children, possibly done remotely.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Practising child care in a simulation is a niche kind of training.
Who is paid. Parents-to-be pay, and many firms could write such a simulation.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Virtual Reality Ceremony
Rim, Alexander Besher · 1994
A ritual that accompanies putting on gear for entering a virtual world.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A ritual for putting on the gear is a custom, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Clave
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
A self-governing walled community that sets its own rules.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Private walled suburbs that run themselves are a big part of the housing trade.
Who is paid. Residents pay to live inside, and since walls and house rules are easy to copy, the owners of well-placed land collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Implanted Credit Card
The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995
A payment chip placed under the skin that pays at checkout wirelessly.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Paying without cash is worth an industry of its own, and a chip under the skin is the same service with a little added convenience.
Who is paid. Shops and banks pay fees on each sale, and since the card or chip itself is easy to copy, the banks and payment networks that already hold people's accounts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pokkecon
Maneki Neko, Bruce Sterling · 1998
A pocket computer linked to a hidden network that trades favours between strangers.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A pocket helper that matches favours between strangers would be a new kind of market for many people.
Who is paid. People buy the device, and the hidden network grows more useful with every member, so whoever runs it is hard to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bohemias
All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999
Enclaves exempt from normal social rules, where new trends tend to be born.
built since, date unclear
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Districts where odd living is tolerated grow up on their own and are not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cyberethics
Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999
A field of ethics about how computing systems should fit into human society.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A field of ethics is shared knowledge that anyone may study for free.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ethical Calculus
Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999
A mathematical method for working out what behaviour benefits society.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A method for working out good conduct is knowledge anyone may use for free; I assumed it is published like other mathematics.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Lucky Dragon ATM
All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999
A cash machine with a pushy talking personality.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A cash machine that talks is a small twist on an ordinary machine.
Who is paid. Banks and shops buy it, and any maker of cash machines can add a voice.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Punishment Sphere
Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999
A fictional coercive facility used to suppress dissent in the game.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.
Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.