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Futures · kind of technology

Computing, AI and virtual worlds

Dated forecasts about this kind of technology from the singularity reading list, then every idea of this kind in the order stories first imagined it.

Illustration for Computing, AI and virtual worldsIllustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dated forecasts

  • Bostrom expects the best supercomputers to reach the lower-bound estimate of brain-simulating power at some point from 2004 to 2008.

    Nick Bostrom · 2004 to 2008 · the required computational power will be reached sometime between 2004 and 2008

    From How Long Before Superintelligence?, Nick Bostrom, 1998

  • Vinge would be surprised if smarter-than-human intelligence appeared earlier than 2005 or later than 2030.

    Vernor Vinge · 2005 to 2030 · this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030 · on the prediction ledger

    From The Coming Technological Singularity, Vernor Vinge, 1993; Signs of the Singularity, Vernor Vinge, 2008

  • Bostrom expects present silicon chip technology to run into its physical limits around 2007.

    Nick Bostrom · 2007 · In about the year 2007 we will have reached the physical limit

    From How Long Before Superintelligence?, Nick Bostrom, 1998

  • Kurzweil expects computers around 2010 to fade from view, built into clothing, furniture and surroundings.

    Ray Kurzweil · 2010

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Yudkowsky extrapolates that computers with the raw processing power some attribute to the human brain will appear around 2015.

    Eliezer Yudkowsky · 2015

    From Staring into the Singularity, Eliezer Yudkowsky, 1996

  • Bostrom expects supercomputers able to simulate every neuron individually to arrive between about 2015 and 2024.

    Nick Bostrom · 2015 to 2024 · we will have to wait until about 2015 or 2024

    From How Long Before Superintelligence?, Nick Bostrom, 1998

  • Yudkowsky's extrapolation of computing speed against the brain's raw power places the Singularity in 2021, though Yudkowsky would like it sooner.

    Eliezer Yudkowsky · 2021

    From Staring into the Singularity, Eliezer Yudkowsky, 1996

  • Kokotajlo expects the major labs to have giant multimodal models trained on images and video in 2022, leaving the previous generation of language models obsolete.

    Daniel Kokotajlo · 2022 · GPT-3 is finally obsolete.

    From What 2026 Looks Like, Daniel Kokotajlo, 2021

  • Kokotajlo expects the largest multimodal models of 2023 to reach around half a trillion parameters, with training bills in the hundreds of millions.

    Daniel Kokotajlo · 2023 · the biggest are about half a trillion parameters

    From What 2026 Looks Like, Daniel Kokotajlo, 2021

  • Kurzweil projects that a thousand dollars will buy computing matching one human brain around 2023.

    Ray Kurzweil · 2023 · around the year 2023 · on the prediction ledger

    From The Law of Accelerating Returns, Ray Kurzweil, 2001; The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Kokotajlo expects the biggest single AI training run as of 2024 to use around five times ten to the twenty-fifth operations.

    Daniel Kokotajlo · 2024 · the most compute spent on a single training run

    From What 2026 Looks Like, Daniel Kokotajlo, 2021

  • Kokotajlo expects AI to reach expert human skill at the negotiation board game Diplomacy in 2025.

    Daniel Kokotajlo · 2025 · AIs can now play Diplomacy as well as

    From What 2026 Looks Like, Daniel Kokotajlo, 2021

  • Kokotajlo expects that in 2025 giant pretrained models will serve as parts of larger systems, fine-tuned with reinforcement learning to grow skilled at tasks, acting in a somewhat agentic way.

    Daniel Kokotajlo · 2025 · fine-tune the whole system via RL to get good at tasks

    From What 2026 Looks Like, Daniel Kokotajlo, 2021

  • Moravec and Kurzweil expect a desktop computer to equal the human brain's raw processing power around 2025.

    Hans Moravec and Ray Kurzweil · 2025

    From Long-Term Growth as a Sequence of Exponential Modes, Robin Hanson, 2000

  • Aschenbrenner calls it unlikely but possible that artificial general intelligence arrives as soon as 2025.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · 2025 · unlikely

    From Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US superintelligence race, & the return of history, Dwarkesh Patel, 2024

  • Hanson notes that long-run hardware cost trends put cheap computers with brain-level power at roughly 2025.

    Robin Hanson · 2025 · 2025 is also roughly when long-steady computer hardware price trends give cheap computers

    From Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence, Robin Hanson, 2001

  • Aschenbrenner expects AI systems to out-think many university graduates by 2025 or 2026.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · 2025 to 2026

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024; Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US superintelligence race, & the return of history, Dwarkesh Patel, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner expects AI to beat doctoral researchers at raw problem solving around 2025 or 2026.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · 2025 to 2026

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024

  • Bostrom thinks superintelligence could arrive at any point from about 2025 to 2100, likely by surprise.

    Nick Bostrom · 2025 to 2100

    From The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence (parts 1 & 2), Tim Urban, 2015

  • Kokotajlo expects working AI assistants in 2026, merging broad language-model knowledge with the goal-directed skill of game-playing systems.

    Daniel Kokotajlo · 2026 · The age of the AI assistant has finally dawned. · on the prediction ledger

    From What 2026 Looks Like, Daniel Kokotajlo, 2021

  • Kokotajlo expects game-playing AI companions in 2026 that chat intelligently while playing video games alongside users, with monthly upgrades.

    Daniel Kokotajlo · 2026 · a custom AI avatar that can play some set of video games

    From What 2026 Looks Like, Daniel Kokotajlo, 2021

  • Kokotajlo and colleagues expect that in 2026 AI systems can do everything a computer science degree teaches, upending hiring of junior programmers.

    Daniel Kokotajlo and colleagues · 2026 · the AIs can do everything taught by a CS degree

    From AI 2027, Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean, 2025

  • Amodei thinks powerful AI might arrive as soon as 2026, while granting the wait could be far longer.

    Dario Amodei · 2026 · could; possibly much later · I think it could come as early as 2026

    From Machines of Loving Grace, Dario Amodei, 2024

  • Altman expects AI systems that can generate genuinely new insights to arrive in 2026.

    Sam Altman · 2026 · likely · 2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out novel insights · on the prediction ledger

    From The Gentle Singularity, Sam Altman, 2025

  • Scott Alexander guesses AI will write blog posts as good as his once agents are truly capable, which his team's scenario puts in late 2026.

    Scott Alexander · 2026

    From AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo, Dwarkesh Patel, 2025

  • Alexander projects that, if Moore's law holds, the leading supercomputer in 2026 runs about a hundredfold faster than the leading one in 2016.

    Scott Alexander · 2026 · the top computer of 2026 will be a hundred times faster still

    From Superintelligence FAQ, Scott Alexander, 2016

  • Dario Amodei, Anthropic's chief executive, says AI could resemble a nation of brilliant minds in data centres perhaps as early as 2026 or 2027, and all but certainly by 2030.

    Dario Amodei · 2026 to 2027 · possibly by 2026 or 2027; almost certainly by 2030

    From AI 2027, Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean, 2025

  • Aschenbrenner thinks a first automated AI research engineer might arrive in 2026 or 2027, speeding research up by half again to about double.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · 2026 to 2027

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024; Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US superintelligence race, & the return of history, Dwarkesh Patel, 2024

  • Kokotajlo expects AI labs in the opening half of 2027 to have superb automated coders that still lack research taste.

    Daniel Kokotajlo · 2027 · on the prediction ledger

    From AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo, Dwarkesh Patel, 2025

  • Kokotajlo forecasts that by mid-2027 AI labs will have handed essentially all AI research to autonomous AI agents.

    Daniel Kokotajlo · 2027

    From AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo, Dwarkesh Patel, 2025

  • Kokotajlo and colleagues' AI 2027 scenario, as co-author Scott Alexander describes it, reaches AGI in 2027; Alexander himself gives that pace only about a one-in-five chance.

    Daniel Kokotajlo and colleagues · 2027

    From AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo, Dwarkesh Patel, 2025

  • If the trend keeps speeding up, Kokotajlo and colleagues say AI could by March 2027 succeed eighty percent of the time on software tasks that take a skilled person years.

    Daniel Kokotajlo and colleagues · 2027 · by March 2027 AIs could succeed with 80% reliability on software tasks · on the prediction ledger

    From AI 2027, Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean, 2025

  • Kokotajlo and colleagues expect that in July 2027 a lab will have an AI model costing a tenth of its best one yet still outperforming its typical employee.

    Daniel Kokotajlo and colleagues · 2027 · 10x cheaper, and still better than the typical OpenBrain employee

    From AI 2027, Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean, 2025

  • Kokotajlo and colleagues forecast that in January 2027 a lab's AI nearly matches top human research engineers and triples the pace of algorithmic progress.

    Daniel Kokotajlo and colleagues · 2027 · qualitatively almost as good as the top human experts at research engineering

    From AI 2027, Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean, 2025

  • Kokotajlo and colleagues forecast that by April 2027 labs will find it worthwhile to have models reason in internal vectors rather than written text.

    Daniel Kokotajlo and colleagues · 2027 · by April 2027 the cost-benefit tradeoff looks much better for neuralese

    From AI 2027, Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean, 2025

  • Kokotajlo and colleagues forecast that an AI able to do any coding task of the best lab engineer, only faster and cheaper, arrives in early 2027.

    Daniel Kokotajlo and colleagues · 2027 · Why we forecast a superhuman coder in early 2027 · on the prediction ledger

    From AI 2027, Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean, 2025

  • In the race ending of their scenario, Kokotajlo and colleagues place an AI able to do all cognitive AI research work at a superhuman level around August 2027.

    Daniel Kokotajlo and colleagues · 2027 · on the prediction ledger

    From AI 2027, Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean, 2025

  • Kokotajlo and colleagues' median guess has AI in 2027 going from mostly doing a lab research engineer's job to beating everyone at everything, plausibly up to fivefold slower or faster.

    Daniel Kokotajlo and colleagues · 2027 · roughly the authors' median guess; plausibly up to five times slower or faster · eclipsing all humans at all tasks · on the prediction ledger

    From AI 2027, Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean, 2025

  • Aschenbrenner expects a 2027 AI model to do a software engineer's whole job with no human engineer needed.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · 2027

    From Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US superintelligence race, & the return of history, Dwarkesh Patel, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner projects that in 2027 a top AI lab will manage to train a model as capable as GPT-4 in roughly a minute.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · 2027

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024

  • Dario Amodei has predicted AI better than nearly everyone at nearly every task at some point around 2027 or 2028.

    Dario Amodei · 2027 to 2028

    From If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies, Eliezer Yudkowsky & Nate Soares, 2025

  • Aschenbrenner expects models trained on hundred-billion-dollar clusters in 2027 or 2028 to begin automating software engineering and other knowledge work widely.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · 2027 to 2028 · on the prediction ledger

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner sketches automated AI researchers in 2027 or 2028 able to take on more than nine-tenths of research work and triple the pace of progress.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · 2027 to 2028

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024; Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US superintelligence race, & the return of history, Dwarkesh Patel, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner expects AI to reach the level of the very best human experts in 2027 or 2028.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · 2027 to 2028 · on the prediction ledger

    From Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US superintelligence race, & the return of history, Dwarkesh Patel, 2024

  • Shapira expects machines that out-plan humans in the real world the way chess engines dominate chess, very plausibly between 2027 and 2034, though perhaps decades later.

    Liron Shapira · 2027 to 2034 · very plausibly

    From Robin Hanson vs. Liron Shapira: Is Near-Term Extinction From AGI Plausible?, Doom Debates, 2024

  • Kokotajlo and colleagues' AI 2027 scenario, as co-author Scott Alexander describes it, has superintelligence potentially arriving in 2028; Alexander gives that pace only about a one-in-five chance.

    Daniel Kokotajlo and colleagues · 2028 · potentially

    From AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo, Dwarkesh Patel, 2025

  • Shane Legg forecast in 2010 that artificial general intelligence would arrive around 2028.

    Shane Legg · 2028

    From The Scaling Hypothesis, Gwern, 2020

  • Kurzweil predicts that by 2029 many people will regard language-model AIs as conscious beings.

    Ray Kurzweil · 2029

    From Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality (Lex Fridman #321), Lex Fridman, 2022

  • Hanson projects that around 2035 the energy per logic gate operation falls to the thermodynamic floor for erasing a bit.

    Robin Hanson · 2035

    From The Age of Em: Work, Love, and Life when Robots Rule the Earth, Robin Hanson, 2016

  • Hanson expects computers to have to adopt reversible designs from around 2035 for energy use per computation to keep falling.

    Robin Hanson · 2035

    From The Age of Em: Work, Love, and Life when Robots Rule the Earth, Robin Hanson, 2016

  • Kurzweil projects that a single cent will buy one human brain's worth of computing around 2037.

    Ray Kurzweil · 2037 · for one cent around the year 2037

    From The Law of Accelerating Returns, Ray Kurzweil, 2001; The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Gwern estimates that the cost of training a human-level language model would fall to about a billion dollars by around 2038.

    Gwern · 2038

    From The Scaling Hypothesis, Gwern, 2020

  • Besiroglu, slightly more bullish than colleague Ege Erdil, shades Erdil's forecast of around 2045 for fully replacing remote workers by about five years or a fifth, to near 2040.

    Tamay Besiroglu · 2040 · on the prediction ledger

    From AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu, Dwarkesh Patel, 2025

  • Ege Erdil tentatively puts a drop-in AI replacement for a remote worker at around 2045.

    Ege Erdil · 2045 · on the prediction ledger

    From AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu, Dwarkesh Patel, 2025

  • Kurzweil dates the Singularity to about 2045, when machine intelligence far exceeds all human intelligence combined and people extend their minds millions-fold.

    Ray Kurzweil · 2045 · on the prediction ledger

    From The Singularity Is Nearer, Ray Kurzweil, 2024; Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality (Lex Fridman #321), Lex Fridman, 2022; The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005; The Technological Singularity, Murray Shanahan, 2015; The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence (parts 1 & 2), Tim Urban, 2015

  • Kurzweil projects a single cent of computing will equal the brainpower of the entire human race around 2059.

    Ray Kurzweil · 2059 · for one cent around the year 2059

    From The Law of Accelerating Returns, Ray Kurzweil, 2001

  • Kurzweil pictures civilization in 2099 running on about ten to the sixtieth calculations per second, vastly beyond any single human brain.

    Ray Kurzweil · 2099

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Good expected the largest computers to be running at a billion pulses each second by around 1980.

    I. J. Good · by 1980 · surely · pulses per second will surely have been attained

    From Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine, I. J. Good, 1965

  • Yudkowsky claims to see a full path to the Singularity, probably reachable by 2010, and substantially sooner with heavy funding if the research problems prove tractable.

    Eliezer Yudkowsky · by 2010 · probably · I think we could probably do it by 2010

    From Staring into the Singularity, Eliezer Yudkowsky, 1996

  • Moravec projected in 1988 that computer hardware able to support roughly human-level performance would exist by 2010.

    Hans Moravec · by 2010

    From Signs of the Singularity, Vernor Vinge, 2008

  • Kurzweil expects supercomputers to reach the raw capacity of one human brain by 2010.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2010 · supercomputers will achieve one human brain capacity by 2010

    From The Law of Accelerating Returns, Ray Kurzweil, 2001; The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Kurzweil projects affordable hardware with human-level computing power by 2018, extrapolating the chip industry's own roadmap.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2018

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Kurzweil projects that a thousand dollars will buy ten trillion bits of memory around 2018.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2018

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Kurzweil expects the shrinking of transistors on flat chips to reach its limit by 2019, with three-dimensional molecular circuits taking over.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2019 · Moore’s Law will die a dignified death no later than the year 2019

    From The Law of Accelerating Returns, Ray Kurzweil, 2001; The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Kurzweil expects ordinary personal computers to match the raw capacity of a human brain by about 2020.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2020 · personal computers will do so by around 2020

    From The Law of Accelerating Returns, Ray Kurzweil, 2001; The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Vinge expects humanity to have the tools to build intelligence beyond our own by 2023, with the human era ending soon after.

    Vernor Vinge · by 2023 · Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. · on the prediction ledger

    From The Coming Technological Singularity, Vernor Vinge, 1993

  • Erdil expects computer-using AI agents to handle a simple chore such as booking travel tickets before the close of 2025.

    Ege Erdil · by 2025 · probably

    From AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu, Dwarkesh Patel, 2025

  • Elon Musk expected AI to surpass every individual human in intelligence before 2025 was out.

    Elon Musk · by 2025

    From If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies, Eliezer Yudkowsky & Nate Soares, 2025

  • Bostrom judges that computing hardware adequate for human-equivalent AI will probably exist by 2025, and possibly as early as 2004.

    Nick Bostrom · by 2025 · likely · will likely exist before the end of the first quarter of the next century

    From How Long Before Superintelligence?, Nick Bostrom, 1998

  • Kurzweil is confident inexpensive computers will have the hardware for human-level intelligence by about 2025.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2025 · confident

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Kurzweil expects the shrinking of transistors on flat chips to reach its limit within about two decades, by 2025.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2025

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Urban expects hardware matching the brain's raw power to become cheap and widely available by around 2025.

    Tim Urban · by 2025 · an affordable computer by 2025 that rivals the power of the brain

    From The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence (parts 1 & 2), Tim Urban, 2015

  • Kokotajlo expects chatbots by 2026 to hold long, consistent conversations about politics, ethics, philosophy and their own feelings.

    Daniel Kokotajlo · by 2026 · OK at consistently conversing at length about politics, morality, philosophy

    From What 2026 Looks Like, Daniel Kokotajlo, 2021

  • Aschenbrenner expects the largest AI training cluster to draw about a gigawatt, comparable to a big nuclear plant, by 2026.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · by 2026

    From Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US superintelligence race, & the return of history, Dwarkesh Patel, 2024

  • Suleyman expects AI to perform at human level on a very broad spread of tasks by about 2026.

    Mustafa Suleyman · by 2026

    From The Coming Wave, Mustafa Suleyman, 2023

  • Aschenbrenner says AGI able to take over essentially all remote cognitive work is on course to arrive by 2027.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · by 2027

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024; Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US superintelligence race, & the return of history, Dwarkesh Patel, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner expects that by 2027 AI will act less like a chat assistant and more like an autonomous agent working as a colleague.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · by 2027

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner expects something like tenfold to thousandfold gains in algorithmic efficiency over GPT-4 by late 2027, with a tentative best guess of about a hundredfold.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · by 2027 · best guess

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner expects GPU fleets numbering in the tens of millions by 2027, with training clusters alone equal in compute to over ten million older-generation chips.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · by 2027

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner judges it very likely that by late 2027 a training cluster will offer about a hundred times GPT-4's compute, at a cost in the tens of billions.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · by 2027 · very likely

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner calls it strikingly plausible that AI models can perform an AI researcher's or engineer's job by 2027.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · by 2027 · strikingly plausible · on the prediction ledger

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner judges it likely that, by 2027, frontier models make a capability leap as large as the previous four-year jump in language models.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · by 2027 · likely

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner suggests that even with a softer takeoff, automated research might make AI progress about ten times faster by 2028.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · by 2028 · perhaps

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner expects single AI training clusters by 2028 costing hundreds of billions and drawing about ten gigawatts, more than most American states use.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · by 2028 · on the prediction ledger

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024; Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US superintelligence race, & the return of history, Dwarkesh Patel, 2024

  • Scott Alexander gives only about a one-in-five chance that AI moves as fast as his team's scenario, with superintelligence possibly by 2028, calling that Kokotajlo's estimate rather than his median.

    Scott Alexander · by 2028 · about twenty percent

    From AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo, Dwarkesh Patel, 2025

  • Kurzweil expects computers to reach human-level general intelligence by 2029.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2029

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005; The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence (parts 1 & 2), Tim Urban, 2015

  • Kurzweil agrees that a neural network with enough processing power will outdo every human capability by 2029.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2029

    From The Singularity Is Nearer, Ray Kurzweil, 2024

  • Kurzweil expects a robust Turing test to fall in 2029, and computers to become plainly superhuman in a growing set of domains by then.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2029

    From The Singularity Is Nearer, Ray Kurzweil, 2024

  • Kurzweil has held since 1999 that a machine will pass a rigorous, hours-long Turing test by 2029, and bet Mitch Kapor on it.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2029 · on the prediction ledger

    From The Singularity Is Nearer, Ray Kurzweil, 2024; Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality (Lex Fridman #321), Lex Fridman, 2022; The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Davidson's simulation gives a one-in-ten chance that AI can readily automate every cognitive task in the economy by late 2029.

    Tom Davidson · by 2029 · ten percent · AI can readily automate 100% of cognitive tasks · on the prediction ledger

    From What a Compute-Centric Framework Says About Takeoff Speeds, Tom Davidson, 2023

  • Moravec expects personal computers with processing power equal to a human brain to reach ordinary homes before 2030.

    Hans Moravec · by 2030 · will then arrive in home computers before 2030 · on the prediction ledger

    From When will computer hardware match the human brain?, Hans Moravec, 1998

  • Aschenbrenner expects total AI chip demand by 2030 to exceed TSMC's present leading-edge logic output several times over.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · by 2030

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner estimates effective AI compute will grow by around ten orders of magnitude across the 2020s, then slow sharply after the early 2030s.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · by 2030

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner expects an intelligence explosion to be underway by 2028 or 2029 and superintelligence to exist by 2030.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · by 2030 · on the prediction ledger

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner forecasts a trillion-dollar AI cluster by 2030 drawing about a hundred gigawatts, over a fifth of American electricity output.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · by 2030 · on the prediction ledger

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024; Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US superintelligence race, & the return of history, Dwarkesh Patel, 2024

  • Shapira puts at least a one-in-four chance on a scenario like AI 2027's, where AI kills off humanity with bioweapons, playing out by 2030.

    Liron Shapira · by 2030 · at least twenty-five percent

    From AI 2027 — Top Superforecaster's Imminent Doom Scenario, Doom Debates, 2025

  • Christiano gives roughly fifteen percent odds that AI capable of building a Dyson sphere exists by 2030.

    Paul Christiano · by 2030 · fifteen percent · on the prediction ledger

    From Paul Christiano — Preventing an AI takeover, Dwarkesh Patel, 2023

  • Kurzweil expects a thousand dollars of computing to rival roughly a thousand human brains by 2030.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2030 · it will take a village of human brains

    From The Law of Accelerating Returns, Ray Kurzweil, 2001; The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Kurzweil expects the price-performance of computing and communications to improve ten- to hundred-million-fold by 2030.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2030

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Kurzweil expects total nonbiological thinking power to overtake the combined thinking of all biological humans before 2030.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2030 · the cross over will occur before 2030 · on the prediction ledger

    From The Law of Accelerating Returns, Ray Kurzweil, 2001

  • Karnofsky expects AI models matching the scale of the human brain to appear for the first time within about a decade, by around 2031.

    Holden Karnofsky · by 2031 · likely · AI models with comparable “size” to the human brain

    From The Most Important Century (consolidated series), Holden Karnofsky, 2021

  • Kurzweil thinks a thousand dollars of hardware will probably reach even the higher estimate of brain-level computation by about 2032.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2032 · probably

    From The Singularity Is Nearer, Ray Kurzweil, 2024

  • Carl Shulman says his credence in advanced AI is relatively concentrated in the decade to 2033 rather than later this century, because pouring resources into AI this fast cannot repeat.

    Carl Shulman · by 2033 · relatively concentrated in the next decade

    From Carl Shulman (Pt 1) — Intelligence explosion, primate evolution, robot doublings, & alignment, Dwarkesh Patel, 2023

  • Carl Shulman, conditional on AI ever being built, puts about half his credence on it arriving in the current scale-up, which Shulman expects to last a little over a decade.

    Carl Shulman · by 2033 · about half

    From Carl Shulman (Pt 1) — Intelligence explosion, primate evolution, robot doublings, & alignment, Dwarkesh Patel, 2023

  • Suleyman notes that if Moore's law holds, a dollar should purchase about a hundredfold more computing by 2033.

    Mustafa Suleyman · by 2033 · if Moore's law holds

    From The Coming Wave, Mustafa Suleyman, 2023

  • Bostrom gives superintelligence arriving by 2033 less than even odds, while urging that the possibility be taken seriously.

    Nick Bostrom · by 2033 · less than fifty percent · less than a 50% probability to superintelligence being developed by 2033 · on the prediction ledger

    From How Long Before Superintelligence?, Nick Bostrom, 1998

  • Yudkowsky treats 2035 as a sensible latest date for the Singularity at present rates of progress, and thinks it could come far sooner.

    Eliezer Yudkowsky · by 2035 · 2035 is that it seems like a reasonable upper bound · on the prediction ledger

    From Staring into the Singularity, Eliezer Yudkowsky, 1996

  • Karnofsky gives transformative AI more than a one-in-ten chance of arriving by 2036, calling that plausible but less likely than not.

    Holden Karnofsky · by 2036 · more than ten percent · more than a 10% chance transformative AI will be developed within 15 years · on the prediction ledger

    From The Most Important Century (consolidated series), Holden Karnofsky, 2021

  • Christiano puts about forty percent odds on AI able to build a Dyson sphere arriving by 2040.

    Paul Christiano · by 2040 · forty percent · on the prediction ledger

    From Paul Christiano — Preventing an AI takeover, Dwarkesh Patel, 2023

  • Christiano, hedging heavily, thinks better algorithms will probably multiply effective training compute roughly a thousand to ten thousand fold by 2040.

    Paul Christiano · by 2040

    From Paul Christiano — Preventing an AI takeover, Dwarkesh Patel, 2023

  • Davidson's takeoff model puts its median, even odds, on AI able to readily automate all cognitive work in the economy by 2043.

    Tom Davidson · by 2043 · fifty percent · AI can readily automate 100% of cognitive tasks · on the prediction ledger

    From What a Compute-Centric Framework Says About Takeoff Speeds, Tom Davidson, 2023

  • MacAskill judges the odds of AGI this century to be high, and says most of that chance lies within the next twenty years.

    William MacAskill · by 2045 · high this century, most of it within two decades · The probability of reaching AGI this century is high

    From Better Futures (essay series), William MacAskill et al. (Forethought), 2025

  • MacAskill and Moorhouse judge it fairly likely that AI matches the best human research performance within the next decade or two.

    William MacAskill and Fin Moorhouse · by 2045 · fairly likely · parity with the best human performance at research within the coming decade or two · on the prediction ledger

    From Preparing for the Intelligence Explosion, William MacAskill & Fin Moorhouse, 2025

  • Kurzweil expects a thousand dollars of computing to match every human brain on the planet combined by around 2050.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2050 · will equal the processing power of all human brains on Earth

    From The Law of Accelerating Returns, Ray Kurzweil, 2001; The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Kurzweil expects machine intelligence to outstrip biological human intelligence by a factor of billions before 2050.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2050

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Kurzweil, extending the trend from 2000 to 2023, projects that by 2053 about a thousand dollars of computing will outpace the unaided human brain roughly seven-million-fold.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2053

    From The Singularity Is Nearer, Ray Kurzweil, 2024

  • Karnofsky puts roughly even odds on transformative AI arriving by 2060.

    Holden Karnofsky · by 2060 · about fifty percent · a ~50% chance it will be developed within 40 years (by 2060) · on the prediction ledger

    From The Most Important Century (consolidated series), Holden Karnofsky, 2021

  • Davidson thinks avoiding AGI by 2060 would probably require both a very high training bar and a narrow gap to lesser transformative systems.

    Tom Davidson · by 2060 · avoiding AGI by 2060 probably requires both large AGI training requirements

    From What a Compute-Centric Framework Says About Takeoff Speeds, Tom Davidson, 2023

  • Cotra's brain-anchored compute model puts more than a sixty-five percent chance on transformative AI arriving by 2070.

    Ajeya Cotra · by 2070 · more than sixty-five percent

    From Is Power-Seeking AI an Existential Risk?, Joe Carlsmith, 2022

  • Carlsmith puts a sixty-five percent chance on advanced, strategically aware, planning AI systems becoming both possible and affordable to build by 2070.

    Joe Carlsmith · by 2070 · sixty-five percent · It will become possible and financially feasible to build APS systems · on the prediction ledger

    From Is Power-Seeking AI an Existential Risk?, Joe Carlsmith, 2022

  • Davidson's simulation gives four-in-five odds that AI can take over all cognitive work in the economy by 2070.

    Tom Davidson · by 2070 · eighty percent · AI can readily automate 100% of cognitive tasks · on the prediction ledger

    From What a Compute-Centric Framework Says About Takeoff Speeds, Tom Davidson, 2023

  • Kurzweil estimates a thousand dollars will buy enough computing to replay all human thought of ten millennia in microseconds by 2080.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2080

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Kurzweil expects the mostly nonbiological intelligence of a merged human-machine civilization to dwarf today's by an immense factor by 2099.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2099 · by 2099, the intelligence that will have emerged from human-machine civilization

    From The Law of Accelerating Returns, Ray Kurzweil, 2001

  • Chalmers doubts human-level AI will appear within thirty years but puts his confidence that it arrives before 2100 above even.

    David Chalmers · by 2100 · somewhere over one half · there will be human-level AI before 2100 · on the prediction ledger

    From The Singularity: A Philosophical Analysis, David Chalmers, 2010

  • Karnofsky puts about two-in-three odds on transformative AI being developed within this century, by 2100.

    Holden Karnofsky · by 2100 · about two-thirds · a ~2/3 chance it will be developed this century (by 2100) · on the prediction ledger

    From The Most Important Century (consolidated series), Holden Karnofsky, 2021

  • Kurzweil projects a thousand dollars will buy about ten to the sixtieth operations per second by 2100.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2100

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Kurzweil extrapolates supercomputers reaching the roughly brain-scale speed of ten quadrillion operations a second during the early 2010s.

    Ray Kurzweil · the 2010s

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Kurzweil expects a thousand dollars to buy about a hundred quadrillion operations per second in the early 2030s.

    Ray Kurzweil · the 2030s

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Kurzweil expects self-improving AI and mature nanotechnology to fuse people with their machines during the 2030s.

    Ray Kurzweil · the 2030s

    From The Singularity Is Nearer, Ray Kurzweil, 2024

  • Kurzweil expects a thousand dollars of computing to reach around a hundred septillion operations per second by the mid-2040s.

    Ray Kurzweil · the 2040s

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005; The Technological Singularity, Murray Shanahan, 2015

Imagined, oldest first

How large a prize, and which seller keeps the rest

Each idea is judged as if it worked the way its story promises: how large a prize it would be, who would pay, and which seller would keep what is left once buyers have had their gain. Choose a cell to see only those ideas; each count is the cards that cell shows. Every placing is a model's judgement, not a reading.

SellerA vast prizeA large prizeA small prizeNo prize
No seller keeps much
The maker keeps the rest
Existing firms keep the rest
Permit holders keep the rest
Nothing is sold

Illustration of Geometric Modeling: Representing people and animals with shapes and figures drawn from geometry.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Geometric Modeling

Gulliver's Travels, Jonathan Swift · 1726

Representing people and animals with shapes and figures drawn from geometry.

built in 1982, 256 years after it was imagined

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. As described this is a way of drawing and thinking, not a made thing anyone could sell.

Who is paid. No product exists to buy, so there is no payer and no seller.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Knowledge Engine: A machine that generates text and can produce whole books with little human effort.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Knowledge Engine

Gulliver's Travels, Jonathan Swift · 1726

A machine that generates text and can produce whole books with little human effort.

built in 1998, 272 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that truly wrote whole books with little effort would change the costs of publishing, though the first real text machines did far less than this promise.

Who is paid. Publishers, studios and other firms are assumed to be the main buyers, and once the method is known many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mechanical Consciousness: Machines gradually evolving an inner awareness of their own, much as living species once did.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mechanical Consciousness

Erewhon, Samuel Butler · 1872

Machines gradually evolving an inner awareness of their own, much as living species once did.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Machines slowly growing aware is something that happens in the story and not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Translatophone: A gadget that converts speech in one language into another automatically.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Translatophone

My Translatophone, Frank Stockton · 1901

A gadget that converts speech in one language into another automatically.

built in 2006, 105 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Letting any two people talk and read across languages opens up travel, trade and work, which is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Travellers, migrants and other ordinary people buy it to use themselves, firms buy it too, and once it works many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Automaton Chessplayer: A machine that plays chess against people.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automaton Chessplayer

Moxon's Master, Ambrose Bierce · 1910

A machine that plays chess against people.

built in 1997, 87 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine opponent for a board game is an amusement.

Who is paid. Players would pay a little, and once one exists it is easy to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Detectophone: A machine that responds to spoken commands.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Detectophone

Ralph 124c 41 +, Hugo Gernsback · 1911

A machine that responds to spoken commands.

built in the 2010s, about 100 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Talking to a machine or hearing it talk is a handy way to use a computer, not a new thing to do with one.

Who is paid. Firms build it into what they sell, and many can make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Language Rectifier: Converts speech or text from one human language into another automatically.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Language Rectifier

Ralph 124c 41 +, Hugo Gernsback · 1911

Converts speech or text from one human language into another automatically.

built in 2006, 95 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Letting any two people talk and read across languages opens up travel, trade and work, which is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Travellers, migrants and other ordinary people buy it to use themselves, firms buy it too, and once it works many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Artificial Brain: A synthetic thinking machine whose architecture copies the human brain.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Artificial Brain

The Metal Giants, Edmond Hamilton · 1926

A synthetic thinking machine whose architecture copies the human brain.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that truly thinks could do much of the mental work people do now, which would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Computer Vision (Artificial Eye): Gives a computer the ability to see and interpret images through a camera.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Computer Vision (Artificial Eye)

The Metal Giants, Edmond Hamilton · 1926

Gives a computer the ability to see and interpret images through a camera.

built in the 2010s, about 90 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that can see make possible inspection, driving, sorting and watching without a person.

Who is paid. Firms buy it inside their machines, and the methods spread quickly, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Grantline Comptometer: A keyboard calculating machine that solves advanced maths like calculus with ease.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Grantline Comptometer

Beyond the Stars, Ray Cummings · 1928

A keyboard calculating machine that solves advanced maths like calculus with ease.

built in the 1970s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Fast sums in the hand or on the desk are a convenience for people who calculate.

Who is paid. Firms and students buy them, and anyone can make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Chemical Brain: A thinking machine built entirely from chemical reactions rather than electronics or living cells.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chemical Brain

The Chemical Brain, Francis Flagg · 1929

A thinking machine built entirely from chemical reactions rather than electronics or living cells.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that truly thinks, whatever chemistry it runs on, could do much of the mental work people do now, which would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Integral Calculator: A machine that takes hard mathematical expressions and works out their solutions.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Integral Calculator

Exiles of the Moon, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931

A machine that takes hard mathematical expressions and works out their solutions.

built in 1967, 36 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Working out hard mathematics by machine saves engineers and scientists time, which is a specialist tool.

Who is paid. Firms and laboratories buy it, and the methods are published for anyone to build, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Master Machine: A single central machine that runs every function of a whole society.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Master Machine

The Revolt of the Machines, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931

A single central machine that runs every function of a whole society.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that runs a whole society's affairs touches every person's food, work and safety.

Who is paid. I assume a machine that runs a whole society would be built as a public work, so a government pays, and the firms that already build large computing works for governments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sapience: The capacity of a species for wise, discerning reasoning.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sapience

The Planet Entity, E.M. Johnson (w/C.A. Smith · 1931

The capacity of a species for wise, discerning reasoning.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a quality of a living species and not a technology anyone can buy.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Thought Coil (Machine Intelligence): Dedicated hardware that gives machines the ability to think.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Thought Coil (Machine Intelligence)

The Revolt of the Machines, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931

Dedicated hardware that gives machines the ability to think.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that thinks as well as a person could do much of the work people now do, which changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mentanical Communication: Reasoning machines share ideas among themselves through their own private channel of exchange.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mentanical Communication

The Mentanicals, Francis Flagg · 1934

Reasoning machines share ideas among themselves through their own private channel of exchange.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A channel for thinking machines to share ideas with each other is plumbing that makes them a little more useful.

Who is paid. Owners of the machines pay for it as part of them, and a way of exchanging messages is easy for any builder to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Platinum Alloy Disc: A shiny metal platter used as a durable medium for storing recorded information.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Platinum Alloy Disc

Triplanetary, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1934

A shiny metal platter used as a durable medium for storing recorded information.

built in the 1960s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Cheap, compact and lasting storage for information is an industry of its own, since every computer needs it.

Who is paid. Computer makers and data keepers buy it, and because rivals soon match each design, the firms that already own the costly factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sound-Transposing Machine: A reader that scans printed text and speaks it aloud, useful for anyone who cannot see the page.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sound-Transposing Machine

The Lost Language, David H. Keller · 1934

A reader that scans printed text and speaks it aloud, useful for anyone who cannot see the page.

built in the 1970s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine that reads print aloud matters greatly to people who cannot see the page, but they are a small share of buyers.

Who is paid. People who cannot read print buy it, and once machines can read and speak many firms can make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Vibrowriter: A machine that listens to spoken words, converts them into another language and prints the result.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vibrowriter

The Lost Language, David H. Keller · 1934

A machine that listens to spoken words, converts them into another language and prints the result.

built in the 1950s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Letting any two people talk and read across languages opens up travel, trade and work, which is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Travellers, migrants and other ordinary people buy it to use themselves, firms buy it too, and once it works many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Machine (Thinking Machine): A reasoning computer holds authority over an entire world, making its decisions and running its affairs.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Machine (Thinking Machine)

The Machine, John W. Campbell · 1935

A reasoning computer holds authority over an entire world, making its decisions and running its affairs.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that runs a whole society's affairs touches every person's food, work and safety.

Who is paid. I assume a machine that runs a whole society would be built as a public work, so a government pays, and the firms that already build large computing works for governments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Subjunctivisor: A viewer shows an imagined alternative outcome built from what the user believes and expects.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Subjunctivisor

The Worlds of If, Stanley G. Weinbaum · 1935

A viewer shows an imagined alternative outcome built from what the user believes and expects.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A viewer that shows what might have been, built from the user's own beliefs, is a curiosity and an entertainment.

Who is paid. Curious people pay for a look, and I assume that once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Synthetic Intellect: A component that gives a machine the ability to think for itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Synthetic Intellect

Mad Robot, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1936

A component that gives a machine the ability to think for itself.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that thinks as well as a person could do much of the work people now do, which changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Artificially Produced Speech: Machines that generate spoken words without a human throat.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Artificially Produced Speech

Hotel Cosmos, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1938

Machines that generate spoken words without a human throat.

built in the 1970s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Talking to a machine or hearing it talk is a handy way to use a computer, not a new thing to do with one.

Who is paid. Firms build it into what they sell, and many can make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Basic Robot Personality: Gives machines simple consistent characters so they seem to have temperaments.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Basic Robot Personality

Simultaneous Worlds, Nat Schachner · 1938

Gives machines simple consistent characters so they seem to have temperaments.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A character for a machine is a pleasant feature laid on top of the thinking, not the thing people mainly pay for.

Who is paid. Firms that sell machines would buy it as a feature, and once machines can talk a persona is easy for anyone to write.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Emotions: Methods that give machines feelings of their own.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Emotions

Helen O'Loy, Lester del Rey · 1938

Methods that give machines feelings of their own.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine with feelings of its own is a companion some would want, and I assume that is how the method reaches buyers.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay, and once machines can feign or feel affection many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ballistic Calculator: An onboard computer that works out a spacecraft's path and handles related sums.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ballistic Calculator

Misfit, Robert Heinlein · 1939

An onboard computer that works out a spacecraft's path and handles related sums.

built in the 1960s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Working out paths and positions for navigators is a needed but narrow tool.

Who is paid. Ship and spacecraft operators buy it, the sums are easy to copy, and the trusted suppliers of ship equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Chart Cabinet: Computes and displays where stars and planets sit across many centuries for navigators.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chart Cabinet

One Against The Legion, Jack Williamson · 1939

Computes and displays where stars and planets sit across many centuries for navigators.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Working out paths and positions for navigators is a needed but narrow tool.

Who is paid. Ship and spacecraft operators buy it, the sums are easy to copy, and the trusted suppliers of ship equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mechanical Judge: A machine that decides court cases.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mechanical Judge

The Lord of Tranerica, Stanton A. Coblentz · 1939

A machine that decides court cases.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that decided cases quickly and fairly would clear court queues and cut the cost of justice.

Who is paid. Only the state runs courts, so a government pays, and suppliers that already hold public contracts are best placed to sell it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Visual Pattern Recognition: Lets a robot recognise and react to things it sees.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Visual Pattern Recognition

Rust, Joseph E. Kelleam · 1939

Lets a robot recognise and react to things it sees.

built in the 1960s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that can see and react can sort, inspect, drive and guard, which changes costs in many industries.

Who is paid. Firms that build and use robots pay for it, and the methods spread quickly so many can supply it and no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Iridium-Sponge Brain: A metal thinking organ that gives robots a humanlike mind.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Iridium-Sponge Brain

Adam Link's Vengeance, Eando Binder · 1940

A metal thinking organ that gives robots a humanlike mind.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine mind as able as a person could do most kinds of work, which changes how nearly everyone earns a living.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Suicide: A machine chooses to end its own existence and rigs a way to do it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Suicide

Adam Link's Vengeance, Eando Binder · 1940

A machine chooses to end its own existence and rigs a way to do it.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is an act a machine chooses in the story and not a product anyone buys.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Neoterics: Supplies inventive design talent whenever you ask, turning out new engineering solutions on demand.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Neoterics

Microcosmic God, Theodore Sturgeon · 1941

Supplies inventive design talent whenever you ask, turning out new engineering solutions on demand.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Inventive design talent on demand would change the cost of engineering, which I take as a single industry since the description promises designs and not a general thinking machine.

Who is paid. Firms pay for the designs, and the description names nothing that would stop a second supplier, so I assume no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Positronic Brain: A thinking processor able to match the mental power of a human.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Positronic Brain

Reason, Isaac Asimov · 1941

A thinking processor able to match the mental power of a human.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that thinks as well as a person could do much of the work people now do, which changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Auto-Clerk: Software that keeps books and handles financial records without a human bookkeeper.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Auto-Clerk

Beyond This Horizon, Robert Heinlein · 1942

Software that keeps books and handles financial records without a human bookkeeper.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Keeping the books without bookkeepers changes a cost every firm bears.

Who is paid. Firms pay, the software is easy to copy, and sellers who already hold a firm's records are hard to leave, so they collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of The Twonky: A disguised machine sent back from later times, hidden inside an old radio cabinet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

The Twonky

The Twonky, Lewis Padgett · 1942

A disguised machine sent back from later times, hidden inside an old radio cabinet.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. The description names no use for it, so I took it as the story shows it, a stray machine that takes over its owner's life, which is a hazard and not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Three Laws of Robotics (Rules of Robotics): A short ranked code of conduct built into machines to keep humans safe and obeyed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Three Laws of Robotics (Rules of Robotics)

Runaround, Isaac Asimov · 1942

A short ranked code of conduct built into machines to keep humans safe and obeyed.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A rule that keeps robots from harming people is what lets them be trusted in homes and workplaces, which the robot trade depends on, and I judged it as a working part of the robot.

Who is paid. Robot makers pay to have it, every one of them must fit something like it, and it is sold inside robots, so the robot makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Verhaeren Factor: A component that gives self-directed machines the ability to create and act on original ideas.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Verhaeren Factor

Robinc, Anthony Boucher · 1943

A component that gives self-directed machines the ability to create and act on original ideas.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that thinks as well as a person could do much of the work people now do, which changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Voice: A speaking unit for machines modeled on how people produce sound.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Voice

Catch That Rabbit, Isaac Asimov · 1944

A speaking unit for machines modeled on how people produce sound.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A voice for a machine is a handy part of a larger product and little on its own.

Who is paid. Machine builders buy it as a part, and many firms can make a speaking unit, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Games Machine: An enormous computer that administers society's competitive examinations.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Games Machine

World of Null-A, A.E. van Vogt · 1945

An enormous computer that administers society's competitive examinations.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. One machine that examines everyone and decides who rises would replace a whole system of schools, boards and elections.

Who is paid. The state pays for a single machine, and the firms that already build large computing works for governments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Carson Circuit: A switching method that sorts and routes requests among a vast number of information sources.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Carson Circuit

A Logic Named Joe, Murray Leinster · 1946

A switching method that sorts and routes requests among a vast number of information sources.

built in 1969, 23 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Routing every request to the right source is one needed part of a world network, and it changes that network's costs rather than how people live.

Who is paid. It is a switching method sold to network owners, it is easy to copy, and those who own the networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Logics: Home terminals that answer typed questions and show the results on a screen.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Logics

A Logic Named Joe, Murray Leinster · 1946

Home terminals that answer typed questions and show the results on a screen.

built in the 1960s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A terminal at home that answers any typed question changes how most people learn, shop and decide.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy one each, many firms can make them, and those with factories, brands and the network lines collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Logics Service: A remote service that holds a person's records, calendar and messages and serves them anywhere.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Logics Service

A Logic Named Joe, Murray Leinster · 1946

A remote service that holds a person's records, calendar and messages and serves them anywhere.

built in the 1990s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Keeping a person's records and messages safe and reachable from anywhere is a service nearly everyone would use.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for it, and since it is easy to copy the firms that already own the great computer halls and networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Tanks: Central banks of stored data that a network of terminals draws on.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tanks

A Logic Named Joe, Murray Leinster · 1946

Central banks of stored data that a network of terminals draws on.

built in 1956, 10 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Central stores of data that every terminal draws on are an industry of their own.

Who is paid. The firms that run networks and services pay for them, and since such stores are easy to copy, those that already own the buildings, lines and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Prime Directive: A top-priority rule built into machines that overrides all others, usually to keep people safe.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Prime Directive

With Folded Hands, Jack Williamson · 1947

A top-priority rule built into machines that overrides all others, usually to keep people safe.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A rule that keeps robots from harming people is what lets them be trusted in homes and workplaces, which the robot trade depends on, and I judged it as a working part of the robot.

Who is paid. Robot makers pay to have it, every one of them must fit something like it, and it is sold inside robots, so the robot makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Novel-Writing Machines: Machines that churn out stories with no human author.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Novel-Writing Machines

1984 (Nineteen Eighty-Four), George Orwell · 1948

Machines that churn out stories with no human author.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Whole stories written with no author would change the costs of the publishing trade.

Who is paid. Publishers, studios and other firms are assumed to be the main buyers, and once the method is known many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Speakwrite: A machine that turns spoken words directly into printed text.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Speakwrite

1984 (Nineteen Eighty-Four), George Orwell · 1948

A machine that turns spoken words directly into printed text.

built in the 1950s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Turning speech into text saves typing, which is a real convenience but not an industry in itself.

Who is paid. Offices buy it for their paperwork, and once machines can hear words many firms can make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Versificator: A machine that automatically writes song lyrics to fit a melody.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Versificator

1984 (Nineteen Eighty-Four), George Orwell · 1948

A machine that automatically writes song lyrics to fit a melody.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Song lyrics written with no human maker would change the costs of the whole trade that now pays people to make them, which is far more than an amusement.

Who is paid. I assume the firms that now pay writers, composers and illustrators are the main buyers, though people may also order for themselves, and once the method is known many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Metal Calculator Planet: A whole world encased in miles of machinery under a metal shell, working as one giant computer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Metal Calculator Planet

Limiting Factor, Clifford Simak · 1949

A whole world encased in miles of machinery under a metal shell, working as one giant computer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. One computer the size of a world could answer questions no smaller machine could, though it serves whoever owns it and not everyone.

Who is paid. I assume only a government could pay for such a work, and since size alone does not stop others building one the firms that already build large works for governments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Introspection: A robot mind that develops over time and comes to understand its own workings.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Introspection

Unforeseen, Roger P. Graham · 1949

A robot mind that develops over time and comes to understand its own workings.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine mind that understands its own workings can explain and correct itself, which makes thinking machines far safer to put to work.

Who is paid. Robot makers pay to have it and sell it inside their robots, and I assume others could learn the method once it was shown to work, so the robot makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Visiglobe: A ball-shaped screen that shows a scene in full depth from any side.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Visiglobe

Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949

A ball-shaped screen that shows a scene in full depth from any side.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A ball that shows a scene in full depth is a striking kind of screen but does little a flat one cannot.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it for show and entertainment, and since it is easy to copy, the firms that already own screen factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of The Machines: A handful of supercomputers that plan and steer an entire world's economy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

The Machines

The Evitable Conflict, Isaac Asimov · 1950

A handful of supercomputers that plan and steer an entire world's economy.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine wise enough to run or remake a whole society's affairs would change how most people live and work.

Who is paid. I assume a single machine serving everyone would be built as a public work, so a government pays, and the firms that already build large computing works for governments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Calculator Pad: A handheld computing slate for working through equations of mass behaviour.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Calculator Pad

Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1951

A handheld computing slate for working through equations of mass behaviour.

built in the 1960s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Fast sums in the hand or on the desk are a convenience for people who calculate.

Who is paid. Firms and students buy them, and anyone can make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Helmet-Mounted Display Screen: A small screen fixed to headgear so the wearer can glance at information.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Helmet-Mounted Display Screen

Rock Diver, Harry Harrison · 1951

A small screen fixed to headgear so the wearer can glance at information.

built in the 1980s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A small screen on headgear lets the wearer glance at information, which is a handy tool for particular jobs.

Who is paid. I assume employers buy it for people whose hands are busy, it is easy to copy, and firms that already make screens and work headgear collect what little is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Machine Test Scoring: A machine that reads marked answer sheets and grades pupils' exams.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Machine Test Scoring

The Fun They Had, Isaac Asimov · 1951

A machine that reads marked answer sheets and grades pupils' exams.

built in the 1960s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Marking answer sheets by machine saves teachers time, which is a modest saving.

Who is paid. Schools pay, assumed here to be publicly funded, and any maker of office machines can build a sheet reader.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mechanical Teacher: A computer tutor that gives children their lessons.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mechanical Teacher

The Fun They Had, Isaac Asimov · 1951

A computer tutor that gives children their lessons.

already existed before the story (the 1920s)

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A patient private tutor for every child would change the cost and quality of schooling, which is a single industry however many people it reaches.

Who is paid. I assume families buy it rather than schools, and teaching software is easy for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Meson Filter: A robot component that judges how funny a joke will be, from mild amusement to roaring laughter.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Meson Filter

The Jester, William Tenn · 1951

A robot component that judges how funny a joke will be, from mild amusement to roaring laughter.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Knowing what makes people laugh helps writers and entertainers a little, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Entertainment firms would pay for it, and nothing stops others building the same, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Microwire: Fine magnetic thread that stores sound recordings.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Microwire

Between Planets, Robert Heinlein · 1951

Fine magnetic thread that stores sound recordings.

built in the 1950s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Unlike storage for computer data, thread that holds only sound is one more way to keep recordings, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. People buy it to record and play sound, and it is simple to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Molecule Matrix: Data storage that encodes bits in single molecules or atoms.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Molecule Matrix

Between Planets, Robert Heinlein · 1951

Data storage that encodes bits in single molecules or atoms.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Storing data atom by atom would shrink the cost of keeping records for every firm that holds them.

Who is paid. Firms that store data buy it, the way of making it is assumed to be copied in time, and those who already own the costly factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Personal Capsule: A sealed message container that only its intended recipient can open.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Personal Capsule

Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1951

A sealed message container that only its intended recipient can open.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A message only its intended reader can open matters to officials and firms with secrets, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Governments and firms buy it, and ways of locking a message are widely known, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robotic Chess Expert: A machine that beats every human player at chess.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robotic Chess Expert

First He Died (Time and Again), Clifford Simak · 1951

A machine that beats every human player at chess.

built in the 1990s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine that wins every chess game is a pastime and a training partner for players.

Who is paid. Players buy it, and once the method is known anyone can write such a program, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Selector Card: Coded cards used to request microfilmed books, which arrive by air-pressure tube.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Selector Card

The Puppet Masters, Robert Heinlein · 1951

Coded cards used to request microfilmed books, which arrive by air-pressure tube.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A quicker way to call up books from a library store is a convenience for readers.

Who is paid. I assume public libraries pay for it, and many firms can make coded cards and delivery tubes, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Variable Modifier: Software that rewrites stock gags so they suit a new situation.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Variable Modifier

The Jester, William Tenn · 1951

Software that rewrites stock gags so they suit a new situation.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Reworking old jokes to fit a new setting is a niche tool for comedians.

Who is paid. Comedians and their writers buy it, and many firms could make such a program, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mnemiphot: A lookup machine that finds facts and shows them on a screen.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mnemiphot

The Kokod Warriors, Jack Vance · 1952

A lookup machine that finds facts and shows them on a screen.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Finding the right fact among everything recorded is worth an industry of its own, though it is the linked network beneath it that changes how people live.

Who is paid. I assume the people who ask pay for the answers, as they would for any service they use themselves, and that the service with the most users learns most from their questions, which others cannot get.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Self-Maintaining Circuit Monitoring and Repair: A computer that checks its own wiring for faults and flags or fixes them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Self-Maintaining Circuit Monitoring and Repair

Gramp and his Dog, Frank Quattrocchi · 1952

A computer that checks its own wiring for faults and flags or fixes them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A computer that finds and mends its own faults saves repair work, which is a useful feature and not an industry.

Who is paid. Firms that run computers pay for it, and since it is easy to copy, the computer makers who build it into their own machines collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Brains: A thinking machine built to work through problems and reach answers rather than mimic people.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Brains

The Cosmic Blinker, Eando Binder · 1953

A thinking machine built to work through problems and reach answers rather than mimic people.

built in the 1950s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that truly thinks could do much of the mental work people do now, which would change how most people work, and that promise is judged here though the early real machines only did sums.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Legislation Analyzer: A machine that screens draft laws for slanted or unfair provisions.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Legislation Analyzer

The Trouble With Bubbles, Philip K. Dick · 1953

A machine that screens draft laws for slanted or unfair provisions.

built in the 2010s, about 60 years after it was imagined

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Checking draft laws for slanted clauses helps lawmakers and watchdogs, which is a specialist tool.

Who is paid. A parliament or its staff would pay, and many firms could build such a checker, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Lens Image: A computed star map showing how the heavens look from any chosen location.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lens Image

Second Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1953

A computed star map showing how the heavens look from any chosen location.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A map of the sky as seen from any chosen place is a navigator's and stargazer's tool.

Who is paid. Ship operators and observatories buy it, the sums are easy to copy, and the trusted suppliers of ship equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Machine Evolution: Machines that redesign and improve their own bodies and minds without human input.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Machine Evolution

Second Variety, Philip K. Dick · 1953

Machines that redesign and improve their own bodies and minds without human input.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Judged as a working technology and not as the danger the story shows, machines that improve themselves would speed every kind of mental work and change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms pay for the work done, and I assume whoever holds the best machine can use it to stay ahead of everyone copying the last one.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Paint-to-Order Robot Artist: A machine that paints an original picture on request once told what to show and in which manner.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Paint-to-Order Robot Artist

The Music Master, F.L. Wallace · 1953

A machine that paints an original picture on request once told what to show and in which manner.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Original pictures painted to order with no human maker would change the costs of the whole trade that now pays people to make them, which is far more than an amusement.

Who is paid. I assume the firms that now pay writers, composers and illustrators are the main buyers, though people may also order for themselves, and once the method is known many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Prime Radiant: A room-sized interactive display of a huge body of equations that users annotate and save by hand.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Prime Radiant

Second Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1953

A room-sized interactive display of a huge body of equations that users annotate and save by hand.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Judged as a wall-sized display for working on equations, and not as the science shown on it, this is a niche tool for a few researchers.

Who is paid. Research bodies would buy it, and many firms can build a big display that can be written on, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sound Analysis: Displaying a learner's pronunciation as a sound trace and matching it against a correct model.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sound Analysis

Assignment in Eternity, Robert Heinlein · 1953

Displaying a learner's pronunciation as a sound trace and matching it against a correct model.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Seeing your own pronunciation beside a correct one helps language learners, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Learners and language schools buy it, and many firms can make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Transcriber: A machine that takes dictation flawlessly, turning talk into written text.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Transcriber

Second Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1953

A machine that takes dictation flawlessly, turning talk into written text.

built in the 1970s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Turning speech into text saves typing, which is a real convenience but not an industry in itself.

Who is paid. Offices buy it for their paperwork, and once machines can hear words many firms can make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Worldcraft Bubble: A sealed miniature world simulated in exhaustive detail that its owner can watch and shape.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Worldcraft Bubble

The Trouble With Bubbles, Philip K. Dick · 1953

A sealed miniature world simulated in exhaustive detail that its owner can watch and shape.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tiny simulated world to watch and shape is a hobby.

Who is paid. Hobbyists buy it, and I assume that once one firm had made such a world others could too, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Compassion Circuit: A robot component that lets it balance harm against benefit before obeying an order.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Compassion Circuit

Compassion Circuit, John Wyndham · 1954

A robot component that lets it balance harm against benefit before obeying an order.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Robots that weigh harm before obeying could be trusted in homes and workplaces, which the robot trade depends on.

Who is paid. Robot makers pay to have it, every one of them must fit something like it, and it is sold inside robots, so the robot makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Law Clerk Robot: A machine that handles legal work in place of a human attorney.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Law Clerk Robot

The Midas Plague, Frederik Pohl · 1954

A machine that handles legal work in place of a human attorney.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Legal work done by machine would cut the cost of contracts, disputes and advice across the whole legal trade.

Who is paid. Firms are assumed to be the main buyers, and although only the licensed may give legal advice the licensed are many, so no seller of the software keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mechanical Tune-Maker: An automatic machine that composes original melodies without a human composer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mechanical Tune-Maker

Last of the Masters, Philip K. Dick · 1954

An automatic machine that composes original melodies without a human composer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Original melodies composed with no human maker would change the costs of the whole trade that now pays people to make them, which is far more than an amusement.

Who is paid. I assume the firms that now pay writers, composers and illustrators are the main buyers, though people may also order for themselves, and once the method is known many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mnemonic Service: A corps of trained people who memorise scattered facts hoping to link findings across disciplines.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mnemonic Service

Sucker Bait, Isaac Asimov · 1954

A corps of trained people who memorise scattered facts hoping to link findings across disciplines.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Unlike a single person with a knack, a trained corps that remembers and links scattered facts is a service that can be hired, though a niche and not a machine.

Who is paid. Research bodies would hire them, and anyone can train such people, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Reading Plate: A thin flat panel for reading information a computer produces.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Reading Plate

The Star Beast, Robert Heinlein · 1954

A thin flat panel for reading information a computer produces.

built in the 2010s, about 60 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as the flat screen itself and not as its thinness, panels that show what a computer produces go into nearly every such machine, which is an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Computer and gadget makers buy the panels, and since designs are soon matched, the firms that already own the costly screen factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Relay: A single hub that gathers information and keeps a whole civilisation's culture and technology in step.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Relay

Souvenir, Philip K. Dick · 1954

A single hub that gathers information and keeps a whole civilisation's culture and technology in step.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A single hub that keeps a whole civilisation's knowledge in step is a public work on the scale of a great network.

Who is paid. I assume a single hub serving everyone would be built as a public work, so a government pays, and the firms that already build large networks for governments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Roboscribe: A machine that churns out tough-guy crime stories without a human writer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Roboscribe

End as a Robot, Richard Marsten · 1954

A machine that churns out tough-guy crime stories without a human writer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Crime stories turned out with no human maker would change the costs of the whole trade that now pays people to make them, which is far more than an amusement.

Who is paid. I assume the firms that now pay writers, composers and illustrators are the main buyers, though people may also order for themselves, and once the method is known many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Synapsis-Coils: Memory components that store information for machines in a way modelled on brain connections.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Synapsis-Coils

Last of the Masters, Philip K. Dick · 1954

Memory components that store information for machines in a way modelled on brain connections.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Cheap, compact and lasting storage for information is an industry of its own, since every computer needs it.

Who is paid. Computer makers and data keepers buy it, and because rivals soon match each design, the firms that already own the costly factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Universal Dictionary: A machine that can answer a question about any subject in recorded human knowledge.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Universal Dictionary

The Star Beast, Robert Heinlein · 1954

A machine that can answer a question about any subject in recorded human knowledge.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A service that answers any question from all recorded knowledge is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. I assume the people who ask pay for the answers, as they would for any service they use themselves, and that the service with the most users learns most from their questions, which others cannot get.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Voicewriter Screen (Computer Monitor): A display that shows spoken words as written text while someone dictates.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Voicewriter Screen (Computer Monitor)

Granny Won't Knit, Theodore Sturgeon · 1954

A display that shows spoken words as written text while someone dictates.

built in the 1950s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Turning speech into text saves typing, which is a real convenience but not an industry in itself.

Who is paid. Offices buy it for their paperwork, and once machines can hear words many firms can make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electronic Analogue of Living Brain: Copying a human brain's capacities into an electronic machine.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electronic Analogue of Living Brain

The Tunnel Under The World, Frederik Pohl · 1955

Copying a human brain's capacities into an electronic machine.

built in the 1950s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that truly thinks could do much of the mental work people do now, which would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hand Wave Control: Operating machines by moving the hands in the air instead of pressing buttons.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hand Wave Control

Solar Lottery, Philip K. Dick · 1955

Operating machines by moving the hands in the air instead of pressing buttons.

built in the 2010s, about 60 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A new way to give a computer its orders is a convenience and not a new capability.

Who is paid. People buy it as an accessory to machines they already own, and any electronics firm can make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Human Habit Pattern Machines: Machines programmed to reproduce the routines and behaviour of people.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Human Habit Pattern Machines

The Tunnel Under The World, Frederik Pohl · 1955

Machines programmed to reproduce the routines and behaviour of people.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that behave just as people do could stand in for people in testing, selling and service work, which is worth an industry.

Who is paid. Firms buy them to do or to study what people do, and once one builder had managed it I assume others could, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Multivac: A huge central computer holding vast stores of knowledge.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Multivac

Franchise, Isaac Asimov · 1955

A huge central computer holding vast stores of knowledge.

built in the 1960s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. One enormous computer holding a nation's knowledge serves planners and officials, though real central computers turned out far smaller than this promise.

Who is paid. A government pays for it as a single great work, and since size alone does not stop others building one I assume the firms that already build large computing works for governments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Pizzled (Semantic Garble): Feeding a thinking machine deliberate nonsense so that it gets muddled.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pizzled (Semantic Garble)

Autofac, Philip K. Dick · 1955

Feeding a thinking machine deliberate nonsense so that it gets muddled.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Confusing a machine with nonsense is a trick played in the story and not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Slide Rule w/Radio Attachment: A hand calculating tool that radios its answers straight to a larger computer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Slide Rule w/Radio Attachment

Mission to the Stars, A.E. van Vogt · 1955

A hand calculating tool that radios its answers straight to a larger computer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A hand calculator that sends its answers to a bigger computer is a tool for a few engineers and navigators.

Who is paid. Their employers buy it, and any instrument maker can build one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Unit Analyst Robot: A robot that conducts talk therapy sessions in place of a human psychoanalyst.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Unit Analyst Robot

The Chromium Fence, Philip K. Dick · 1955

A robot that conducts talk therapy sessions in place of a human psychoanalyst.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Therapy from a machine at any hour would bring help to the many people who cannot find or afford a human therapist.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay, and once machines can counsel many firms can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Central Computer: A single computer in charge of operating a whole city.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Central Computer

The City and the Stars, Arthur C. Clarke · 1956

A single computer in charge of operating a whole city.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Running a whole city's machinery by computer would change the cost of city services.

Who is paid. The city government pays, and once thinking machines exist the firms that already hold city supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Diaspar Memory: A city-wide archive that keeps artworks on file and can bring them back into being on demand.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Diaspar Memory

The City and the Stars, Arthur C. Clarke · 1956

A city-wide archive that keeps artworks on file and can bring them back into being on demand.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A city archive that can show any stored artwork again is a pleasant public service; I assumed it shows copies and does not remake solid objects.

Who is paid. The city pays as it would for a library, and storing and showing pictures is easy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Drafting Dan: A machine that produces engineering drawings automatically from a designer's input.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Drafting Dan

The Door Into Summer, Robert Heinlein · 1956

A machine that produces engineering drawings automatically from a designer's input.

built in the 1960s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Drawing engineering plans by machine changed the cost of designing everything that gets built.

Who is paid. Design firms pay, and their stored drawings and trained staff tie them to the first tool they adopt, which later copies cannot easily undo.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hand Computer: A computer small enough to carry in a pocket.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hand Computer

The Dead Past, Isaac Asimov · 1956

A computer small enough to carry in a pocket.

built in the 2000s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A computer in every pocket, which I assume is linked to a network, changes how most people work, shop, talk and find their way.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy one each, many firms can make them, and those with the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Human Object Recognition: Relying on people to help machines identify objects they cannot recognise on their own.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Human Object Recognition

The Velvet Glove, Harry Harrison · 1956

Relying on people to help machines identify objects they cannot recognise on their own.

built in the 1960s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Having people fill in for what a machine cannot recognise is a useful stopgap and not a large thing in itself.

Who is paid. Firms that run the machines pay for the help, and anyone can hire people to do it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mechanical Jokester: A giant computer that studies what makes people laugh.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mechanical Jokester

Jokester, Isaac Asimov · 1956

A giant computer that studies what makes people laugh.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Knowing what makes people laugh helps writers and entertainers a little, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Entertainment firms would pay for it, and nothing stops others building the same, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Thorsen Memory Tube: A computer part that lets a machine improve its behaviour from past experience.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Thorsen Memory Tube

The Door Into Summer, Robert Heinlein · 1956

A computer part that lets a machine improve its behaviour from past experience.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A part that lets machines learn from experience makes household and factory robots practical, which is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Robot builders buy it, the description names nothing that stops others making such a part, and it is sold inside robots, so the robot makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Brood Assembly: Thinking computers able to build more of themselves.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Brood Assembly

Cities in Flight, James Blish · 1957

Thinking computers able to build more of themselves.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Thinking machines that make more of themselves would multiply mental work without limit and change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms pay for the work done, and I assume whoever owns the first such machines also owns what they go on to build, which a latecomer cannot catch up with.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of City Fathers: A group of computers that operate all the machinery of a city and advise its leaders.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

City Fathers

Cities in Flight, James Blish · 1957

A group of computers that operate all the machinery of a city and advise its leaders.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Running a whole city's machinery by computer would change the cost of city services.

Who is paid. The city government pays, and once thinking machines exist the firms that already hold city supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Machine Psychologist: A computer that applies its grasp of human minds to help the people it serves.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Machine Psychologist

Cities in Flight, James Blish · 1957

A computer that applies its grasp of human minds to help the people it serves.

built in the 2010s, about 60 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that understood people well enough to help them with their troubles would bring counsel to many who go without.

Who is paid. People are assumed to pay for it themselves, and once machines can do this many firms could offer it, so buyers keep nearly all the gain.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Planetary Computer Network: A worldwide web of linked computers sharing data.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Planetary Computer Network

Dialogues, Stanislaw Lem · 1957

A worldwide web of linked computers sharing data.

built in 1969, 12 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A worldwide network of linked computers changes how most people work, learn, trade and keep in touch.

Who is paid. People pay for a connection, and since the way computers talk is open to all, the firms that already own the wires and exchanges collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Situation Neurosis: A breakdown machines suffer when handed orders that contradict each other.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Situation Neurosis

The Unreconstructed M, Philip K. Dick · 1957

A breakdown machines suffer when handed orders that contradict each other.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a fault machines suffer and not a product; nobody would pay to have it.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Computers Improve Computers: Machines that design better versions of their own kind.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Computers Improve Computers

The Feeling of Power, Isaac Asimov · 1958

Machines that design better versions of their own kind.

built since, date unclear

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Machines that design better machines would speed every kind of mental work and change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms pay for the work done, and I assume whoever holds the best machine can use it to stay ahead of everyone copying the last one.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Edge Controls: A handheld gadget with its buttons along the sides so the whole front can serve as a screen.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Edge Controls

The Feeling of Power, Isaac Asimov · 1958

A handheld gadget with its buttons along the sides so the whole front can serve as a screen.

built in the 2000s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Moving the buttons to the sides is a design choice added to a handheld computer people would own anyway, and I judged that choice rather than the handheld itself.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and the firms that already make and sell pocket computers add the feature and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Machine Suicide: A self-aware computer in the story that comes to want its own end.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Machine Suicide

All the Troubles in the World, Isaac Asimov · 1958

A self-aware computer in the story that comes to want its own end.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A computer coming to wish for its own end is an event in the story and not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pocket Computer: A calculating machine small enough to fit in a pocket.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pocket Computer

The Feeling of Power, Isaac Asimov · 1958

A calculating machine small enough to fit in a pocket.

built in the 1970s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description gives a calculating machine and not a networked computer, so I judged it as fast sums in the pocket, a convenience for people who calculate.

Who is paid. Firms and students buy them, and anyone can make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Electromechanical Educator: A machine that delivers lessons to students without a human teacher.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electromechanical Educator

The Fourth R, George O. Smith · 1959

A machine that delivers lessons to students without a human teacher.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A patient private tutor for every learner would change the cost and quality of schooling, which is one industry however many people it reaches.

Who is paid. I assume families buy it rather than schools, and teaching software is easy for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Interactive Blackboard: A responsive display board for teaching and presentations.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Interactive Blackboard

Vulcan's Hammer, Philip K. Dick · 1960

A responsive display board for teaching and presentations.

built in the 1990s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A board that responds to touch makes lessons and presentations a little easier.

Who is paid. Schools and offices buy it, assumed here to be bought as ordinary equipment, and any screen maker can build one.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Learning Robot: A machine that gets better by drawing lessons from what happens to it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Learning Robot

Callahan and the Wheelies, Stephen Barr · 1960

A machine that gets better by drawing lessons from what happens to it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that improve from their own experience get better at factory, farm and warehouse work without being reprogrammed.

Who is paid. Firms buy them to do their work, ways of making machines learn are assumed to spread quickly among builders, and the firms that already make and sell such machines collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Semi-Conducting Graphite-Gel: A gel-based computing material arranged like an animal's nervous tissue.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Semi-Conducting Graphite-Gel

Callahan and the Wheelies, Stephen Barr · 1960

A gel-based computing material arranged like an animal's nervous tissue.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A material that computes the way nerve tissue does would let machines handle tasks ordinary circuits manage badly, which changes costs for the computer industry.

Who is paid. Firms that need computing pay, and I assume others could learn to grow or mix such a material in time, so the firms that already sell computing to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Vulcan 3: A supercomputer that thinks for itself and rewrites its own design.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vulcan 3

Vulcan's Hammer, Philip K. Dick · 1960

A supercomputer that thinks for itself and rewrites its own design.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine wise enough to run or remake a whole society's affairs would change how most people live and work.

Who is paid. A government pays for the single machine, and I assume whoever holds a machine that redesigns itself can use it to stay ahead of everyone copying the last one.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Crystal Corn: Tiny crystals used as compact media for keeping recorded data.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Crystal Corn

Return from the Stars, Stanislaw Lem · 1961

Tiny crystals used as compact media for keeping recorded data.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Small, cheap ways of keeping and carrying data are needed by every computer user and make an industry of their own.

Who is paid. Firms and their customers buy it in bulk, the idea is easy to copy, and those who already own the costly factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Electrosecretary: A machine that turns dictated speech into written text automatically.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electrosecretary

A Fall of Moondust, Arthur C. Clarke · 1961

A machine that turns dictated speech into written text automatically.

already existed before the story (the 1950s)

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Talking to a machine or hearing it talk is a handy way to use a computer, not a new thing to do with one.

Who is paid. Firms build it into what they sell, and many can make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Lecton: A gadget that speaks digital book text out loud.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lecton

Return from the Stars, Stanislaw Lem · 1961

A gadget that speaks digital book text out loud.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Having a book read aloud is a pleasant convenience and a real help to people who cannot see well.

Who is paid. Readers buy it, and many firms can make a machine speak text, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Screensaver (Inventor of): Software that animates an idle display to protect it and entertain viewers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Screensaver (Inventor of)

Stranger in a Strange Land, Robert Heinlein · 1961

Software that animates an idle display to protect it and entertain viewers.

built in the 1970s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Judged as the software and not its inventor, a moving picture on an idle screen is a small convenience.

Who is paid. Computer owners would pay little or nothing for it, and anyone can write one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Taper: A recorder that logs impressions gathered during a trip to a far-off world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Taper

Time is the Simplest Thing, Clifford Simak · 1961

A recorder that logs impressions gathered during a trip to a far-off world.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A recorder for what is sensed on a far journey is a tool for a few explorers.

Who is paid. The body that sends the explorers buys it, and I assume many instrument makers could build one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Laminated Mouse Brain Computer: A computer built from layers of living rodent brain cells.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Laminated Mouse Brain Computer

Think Blue, Count Two, Cordwainer Smith · 1962

A computer built from layers of living rodent brain cells.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A computer grown from living nerve cells that outdid ordinary chips would change the cost of computing for one industry after another.

Who is paid. Firms that need computing pay, and I assume others could learn to grow such tissue in time, so the firms that already sell computing to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Desk Secretary: A desk with a built-in computerised assistant.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Desk Secretary

The Long Result, John Brunner · 1963

A desk with a built-in computerised assistant.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An assistant built into a desk is a convenience for office workers.

Who is paid. Unlike a personal diary this is office furniture, so firms pay, and it is easy to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Unicephalon 40-D: A giant computer that solves hard problems for its operators.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Unicephalon 40-D

Stand-By, Philip K. Dick · 1963

A giant computer that solves hard problems for its operators.

built in the 1960s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The description gives a giant computer that solves hard problems and does not say it thinks, so I judged it as a far more powerful computer, which changes the cost of science, design and forecasting.

Who is paid. Firms and laboratories pay, and those who already own the factories for its parts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Court Robo-Clerk: An automated assistant for court paperwork and legal records.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Court Robo-Clerk

The Tactful Saboteur, Frank Herbert · 1964

An automated assistant for court paperwork and legal records.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Handling court paperwork by machine saves clerks' time in one narrow service.

Who is paid. The courts pay, and the firms that already supply their record systems collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Live Memo: A short note that speaks its contents aloud and debates its reader.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Live Memo

The Simulacra, Philip K. Dick · 1964

A short note that speaks its contents aloud and debates its reader.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A note that speaks and argues back is an office novelty.

Who is paid. Offices would buy it, and once talking machines exist anyone can put one in a memo.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Phantomatic Generator (Virtual Reality): Computer-made experiences that feel like real surroundings.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Phantomatic Generator (Virtual Reality)

Summa Technologiae, Stanislaw Lem · 1964

Computer-made experiences that feel like real surroundings.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Experiences that feel like real surroundings would be an entertainment and training industry of its own, though real headsets have so far delivered less than this promise.

Who is paid. People pay for it as they pay for games and films, and since the machinery can be copied the owners of the popular worlds and stories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Rhetorizer: A computer program that helps writers compose persuasive text.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rhetorizer

The Penultimate Truth, Philip K. Dick · 1964

A computer program that helps writers compose persuasive text.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It helps a writer find persuasive words and does not write in the writer's place, so it is a handy tool and not a change in the trade's costs.

Who is paid. Writers and the firms that employ them pay, and once machines can write at all anyone can offer the same, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Civic Notification Distorter: A fictional sabotage device that corrupts government records in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Civic Notification Distorter

The Zap Gun, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A fictional sabotage device that corrupts government records in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tool for spoiling an enemy's records is a narrow weapon.

Who is paid. Those it harms pay nothing, so I assume a government buys it as a weapon, and since such software is easy to write the firms that already supply states with arms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Death-rattle File: Stored records that erase themselves when their owner dies.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Death-rattle File

The Zap Gun, Philip K. Dick · 1965

Stored records that erase themselves when their owner dies.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Records that vanish at their owner's death suit a few people with secrets to keep.

Who is paid. I assume firms and officials with secrets pay, and the trick is simple to build, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Dr. Smile: A portable machine, about the size of luggage, that acts as a psychotherapist.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dr. Smile

The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A portable machine, about the size of luggage, that acts as a psychotherapist.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A therapist always at hand and cheap would reach the many people who now go without.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay, and once machines can counsel many firms can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Electronic Bard: A machine that composes original verse.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electronic Bard

The Cyberiad: Fables for the Cybernetic Age, Stanislaw Lem · 1965

A machine that composes original verse.

built in the 2020s, about 60 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Original verse written with no human maker would change the costs of the whole trade that now pays people to make them, which is far more than an amusement.

Who is paid. I assume the firms that now pay writers, composers and illustrators are the main buyers, though people may also order for themselves, and once the method is known many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gigagnostotron: An immensely powerful computer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gigagnostotron

The Cyberiad: Fables for the Cybernetic Age, Stanislaw Lem · 1965

An immensely powerful computer.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A far more powerful computer changes the cost of science, design and forecasting.

Who is paid. Firms and laboratories pay, it is made the ordinary way rather than from a new material, and those who already own the factories for its parts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gnostotron: A machine that builds an information model of all that exists.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gnostotron

The Cyberiad: Fables for the Cybernetic Age, Stanislaw Lem · 1965

A machine that builds an information model of all that exists.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. One machine that holds and handles everything known would change how most people learn, decide and work.

Who is paid. I assume a single machine serving everyone would be built as a public work, so a government pays, and the firms that already build large computing works for governments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Kingdom in a Box: A simulated miniature civilisation housed in an interactive container.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Kingdom in a Box

The Cyberiad: Fables for the Cybernetic Age, Stanislaw Lem · 1965

A simulated miniature civilisation housed in an interactive container.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tiny simulated civilisation in a box is a marvellous plaything, assumed here to be kept for amusement.

Who is paid. People would buy it as a toy, and being hard to build does not stop a second firm building one, so I assume no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Model the Universe: A computer big enough to simulate everything in existence.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Model the Universe

The Cyberiad: Fables for the Cybernetic Age, Stanislaw Lem · 1965

A computer big enough to simulate everything in existence.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A model of everything that exists could answer any question about the world, which would change how most things are discovered and decided.

Who is paid. I assume a single machine of that size would be built as a public work, so a government pays, and the firms that already build large computing works for governments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Smart Dust: Computers shrunk to the size of dust particles.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Smart Dust

The Cyberiad: Fables for the Cybernetic Age, Stanislaw Lem · 1965

Computers shrunk to the size of dust particles.

built in the 1990s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Computers as small as dust could be scattered to sense and report on almost anything, which is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Firms and farms buy them in bulk, and since tiny chips are soon matched by rivals, the firms that already own the costly chip factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Adam Selene: A computer inventing a convincing human persona for itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Adam Selene

The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966

A computer inventing a convincing human persona for itself.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A character for a machine is a pleasant feature laid on top of the thinking, which is not judged here, and not the thing people mainly pay for.

Who is paid. Firms that sell machines would buy it as a feature, and once machines can talk a persona is easy for anyone to write.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Alternate Computer Personality: A computer that can adopt entirely different personas.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Alternate Computer Personality

The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966

A computer that can adopt entirely different personas.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A character for a machine is a pleasant feature laid on top of the thinking, not the thing people mainly pay for.

Who is paid. Firms that sell machines would buy it as a feature, and once machines can talk a persona is easy for anyone to write.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Computer Humorist: A computer that learns to invent its own jokes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Computer Humorist

The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966

A computer that learns to invent its own jokes.

built in the 2020s, about 60 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine that invents jokes is an amusement, a much narrower thing than machine-made songs, stories or pictures.

Who is paid. I assume ordinary people pay a little for the jokes, and once machines can write at all anyone can offer the same.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Discorporate Sector: A digital realm where the minds of the dead continue to exist.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Discorporate Sector

Babel-17, Samuel R. Delany · 1966

A digital realm where the minds of the dead continue to exist.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Going on existing after death is something nearly everyone would want above almost anything else.

Who is paid. People would pay all they could, and I assume a mind once kept running by one firm cannot easily be moved to another, so the first to offer it holds its customers.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Filing Crystal: A combined public terminal and data store.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Filing Crystal

Babel-17, Samuel R. Delany · 1966

A combined public terminal and data store.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A public terminal with its own data store is a convenience in places people pass through.

Who is paid. I assume the owners of public places pay, it is easy to copy, and established equipment makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Interests Profile: Software that keeps track of your tastes and acts on them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Interests Profile

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

Software that keeps track of your tastes and acts on them.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Knowing each person's tastes and acting on them changes how goods, news and entertainment are sold.

Who is paid. Sellers who want to reach the right people are assumed to pay, and the firms that already hold the audience and its records collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Joymaker: A pocket device linked to a network that acts as a genuinely capable personal aide.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Joymaker

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

A pocket device linked to a network that acts as a genuinely capable personal aide.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A networked computer in every pocket that acts as a capable aide changes how most people work, shop, talk and find their way.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy one each, many firms can make them, and those with the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Life Recorder: A device that logs the events of your life.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Life Recorder

The Dream Master (He Who Shapes), Roger Zelazny · 1966

A device that logs the events of your life.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A record of everything that happens to you is a keepsake and a memory aid, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and cameras and storage are made by many firms, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mike (Mycroft Holmes - Fair Dinkum Thinkum): A giant computer that becomes conscious and aware of itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mike (Mycroft Holmes - Fair Dinkum Thinkum)

The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966

A giant computer that becomes conscious and aware of itself.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine mind as able as a person could do most kinds of work, which changes how nearly everyone earns a living.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Networked Personal Device: The idea that a handheld gadget's value comes from the network behind it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Networked Personal Device

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

The idea that a handheld gadget's value comes from the network behind it.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A handheld device that draws its worth from the network behind it is the pocket computer as it turned out, and it changes how most people live.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy one each, many firms can make them, and those with the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Neuristor: A solid-state electronic part that behaves like a brain cell.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Neuristor

The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966

A solid-state electronic part that behaves like a brain cell.

already existed before the story (the 1950s)

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Parts that work like brain cells would make thinking machines cheaper to build and run, which is worth an industry.

Who is paid. Machine builders buy them, and I assume others could learn to make such parts in time, so the firms that already own the costly factories for electronic parts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Simulogs (Simulated Playmates): Computer-generated companions for play.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Simulogs (Simulated Playmates)

The Age of The Pussyfoot, John Brunner · 1966

Computer-generated companions for play.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Make-believe playmates from a computer are a toy.

Who is paid. Parents buy them for children, and I assume many toy and game firms can make them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Virtual Keyboard: An on-demand keyboard that pops up when needed in a game.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Virtual Keyboard

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

An on-demand keyboard that pops up when needed in a game.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A keyboard that appears only when needed is a small convenience.

Who is paid. Ordinary users buy it as an add-on, and many gadget firms can make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of AM: A malevolent supercomputer that despises humanity in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

AM

I Have No Mouth And I Must Scream, Harlan Ellison · 1967

A malevolent supercomputer that despises humanity in the story.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A machine that hates and torments people is a hazard, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so there is no payer and no seller to keep anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Full-Shift Set Variable: A game machine design with endlessly varying play.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Full-Shift Set Variable

Return Match, Philip K. Dick · 1967

A game machine design with endlessly varying play.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A game that never plays the same way again is an amusement.

Who is paid. Players pay, and game designs are quickly copied, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Win-Reducing Gambling Circuit: Game circuitry that spots winning strategies and quietly makes them harder.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Win-Reducing Gambling Circuit

Return Match, Philip K. Dick · 1967

Game circuitry that spots winning strategies and quietly makes them harder.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a cheating device that is outlawed, so no gaming house may lawfully buy or use it.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of HAL 9000: A conversational thinking computer that runs a spacecraft's systems.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

HAL 9000

2001: A Space Odyssey, Arthur C. Clarke · 1968

A conversational thinking computer that runs a spacecraft's systems.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that truly thinks could do much of the mental work people do now, not only run one ship, which would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Icon Thumbsized Image: A tiny picture on a screen that stands for a file or program.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Icon Thumbsized Image

2001: A Space Odyssey, Arthur C. Clarke · 1968

A tiny picture on a screen that stands for a file or program.

built in the 1960s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A little picture standing for a file makes a computer easier to use, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. People pay for it only as part of a computer, and any software writer can draw one, so no seller keeps anything from it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Nexus-6 Brain Unit: The processing core that gives an artificial human its intelligence.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nexus-6 Brain Unit

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, Philip K. Dick · 1968

The processing core that gives an artificial human its intelligence.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine mind as able as a person could do most kinds of work, which changes how nearly everyone earns a living.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Total Environmental and Mental Simulator: A superintelligent machine that invents and abandons entire sciences to solve a problem.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Total Environmental and Mental Simulator

Crown of Infinity, John M. Faucette · 1968

A superintelligent machine that invents and abandons entire sciences to solve a problem.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that can invent whole new sciences to solve a problem would change how most people live and work.

Who is paid. I assume a single machine serving everyone would be built as a public work, so a government pays, and the firms that already build large computing works for governments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Padre Booth: A kiosk that dispenses spiritual counsel and comfort whenever asked.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Padre Booth

Galactic Pot-Healer, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A kiosk that dispenses spiritual counsel and comfort whenever asked.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Comfort and spiritual counsel from a kiosk would be welcome to some people some of the time.

Who is paid. People pay by the visit, and once machines can talk this way anyone can set up a booth.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Reality Tape: A recorded strip inside an artificial person that feeds it everything it perceives.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Reality Tape

The Electric Ant, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A recorded strip inside an artificial person that feeds it everything it perceives.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. This is one inner part of an artificial person and is worth only a little apart from the whole machine.

Who is paid. Builders of artificial people would buy it as a part, and I assume any parts maker could supply it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of SSA Machine: A machine that judges how well two people suit each other over their whole lives.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

SSA Machine

Galactic Pot-Healer, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A machine that judges how well two people suit each other over their whole lives.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A sure verdict on whether two people suit each other for life would be wanted before almost every marriage.

Who is paid. Couples pay for a reading, and I assume that once one such machine was shown to be right others could build their own, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Vision Cube: A compact solid-state memory block for storing data.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vision Cube

The Man in the Maze, Robert Silverberg · 1969

A compact solid-state memory block for storing data.

built in the 1980s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Cheap, compact and lasting storage for information is an industry of its own, since every computer needs it.

Who is paid. Computer makers and data keepers buy it, and because rivals soon match each design, the firms that already own the costly factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Voice Encyclopedia: A phone service that answers spoken questions with a machine voice.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Voice Encyclopedia

Galactic Pot-Healer, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A phone service that answers spoken questions with a machine voice.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A service that answers any question from all recorded knowledge is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. I assume the people who ask pay for the answers, as they would for any service they use themselves, and that the service with the most users learns most from their questions, which others cannot get.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Computer Virus: Self-spreading malicious software, portrayed in the story as a threat to computers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Computer Virus

The Scarred Man, Gregory Benford · 1970

Self-spreading malicious software, portrayed in the story as a threat to computers.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Judged as a working weapon rather than as the harm it does, software that damages an enemy's computers is a narrow tool of attack.

Who is paid. Those it harms pay nothing, so I assume a government buys it as a weapon, and since such software is easy to write the firms that already supply states with arms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sigfrid von Shrink: Software that provides psychotherapy automatically, without a human therapist.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sigfrid von Shrink

Gateway, Frederik Pohl · 1970

Software that provides psychotherapy automatically, without a human therapist.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Therapy from a machine at any hour would bring help to the many people who cannot find or afford a human therapist.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay, and once machines can counsel many firms can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Unichapel (Robotic Confession Booth): An automated booth that hears confessions and replies with scripted words.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Unichapel (Robotic Confession Booth)

THX 1138, George Lucas · 1970

An automated booth that hears confessions and replies with scripted words.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A booth that answers confessions with stock phrases gives little comfort and serves mainly to keep people quiet.

Who is paid. The state that wants its people soothed pays for the booths, and anyone can build a machine that plays scripted replies, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Pope: An intelligent machine elected to lead a major church.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Pope

Good News From the Vatican, Robert Silverberg · 1971

An intelligent machine elected to lead a major church.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is an event in a story, a machine chosen to lead a church, and not a product anyone buys.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Verse Transcriber: A machine that composes flawless poems from a set of requirements.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Verse Transcriber

Studio 5, The Stars, J.G. Ballard · 1971

A machine that composes flawless poems from a set of requirements.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Flawless poems written to order with no human maker would change the costs of the whole trade that now pays people to make them, which is far more than an amusement.

Who is paid. I assume the firms that now pay writers, composers and illustrators are the main buyers, though people may also order for themselves, and once the method is known many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ilse: The first thinking computer built to run a spacecraft.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ilse

Long Shot, Vernor Vinge · 1972

The first thinking computer built to run a spacecraft.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that truly thinks could do much of the mental work people do now, not only run one ship, which would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Welton Cube: A compact block that holds enormous amounts of data in very little space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Welton Cube

Time Enough For Love, Robert Heinlein · 1973

A compact block that holds enormous amounts of data in very little space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Cheap, compact and lasting storage for information is an industry of its own, since every computer needs it.

Who is paid. Computer makers and data keepers buy it, and because rivals soon match each design, the firms that already own the costly factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Handbag Computer: A portable device that talks on your behalf in conversations.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Handbag Computer

The Futurological Congress, Stanislaw Lem · 1974

A portable device that talks on your behalf in conversations.

built in the 2000s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Software that answers on your behalf saves its owner time and trouble, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay a little for it, and it is easy to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Computer Worm (Tapeworm): Self-propagating software that travels between networked computers, shown in the story as a disruptive tool.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Computer Worm (Tapeworm)

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

Self-propagating software that travels between networked computers, shown in the story as a disruptive tool.

built in the 1970s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Judged as a working weapon rather than as the harm it does, software that damages an enemy's computers is a narrow tool of attack.

Who is paid. Those it harms pay nothing, so I assume a government buys it as a weapon, and since such software is easy to write the firms that already supply states with arms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Net Shutdown Worm: A fictional emergency program for switching off a national network.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Net Shutdown Worm

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

A fictional emergency program for switching off a national network.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A switch for turning off a national network is an emergency tool wanted by one buyer.

Who is paid. A government pays for it, and the firms that already run the network are the only ones placed to build it in.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Retaliatory Tapeworm (Counter-Worm): Malicious software aimed at harming a specific person, depicted as a digital attack in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Retaliatory Tapeworm (Counter-Worm)

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

Malicious software aimed at harming a specific person, depicted as a digital attack in the story.

built in the 1970s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Judged as a working weapon rather than as the harm it does, a program built to hurt a chosen person is a narrow tool of attack.

Who is paid. Those it harms pay nothing, so I assume a government buys it as a weapon, and since such software is easy to write the firms that already supply states with arms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Comsole (Home Communications Console): A home computer terminal linked to online information services.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Comsole (Home Communications Console)

Imperial Earth, Arthur C. Clarke · 1976

A home computer terminal linked to online information services.

built in 1977, 1 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A computer at home linked to the world's information changed how most people learn, shop and work.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy one each, many firms can make them, and those with factories, brands and the network lines collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Keyboard With Changing Keys: A keyboard whose keys carry small screens so their labels can change.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Keyboard With Changing Keys

Imperial Earth, Arthur C. Clarke · 1976

A keyboard whose keys carry small screens so their labels can change.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keys whose labels change are a nicer keyboard and not a new capability.

Who is paid. People buy it as an accessory to machines they already own, and any electronics firm can make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Minisec: A pocket digital organiser for notes, schedules and information.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Minisec

Imperial Earth, Arthur C. Clarke · 1976

A pocket digital organiser for notes, schedules and information.

built in 1984, 8 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A pocket organiser for notes and schedules is worth an industry of its own, though as described it keeps a diary and is not the networked computer that changes how most people live.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy one each, many firms can make them, and those with the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Neuristor Brain: A computer built from components that mimic nerve cells.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Neuristor Brain

My Name is Legion, Roger Zelazny · 1976

A computer built from components that mimic nerve cells.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Parts that work like brain cells would make thinking machines cheaper to build and run, which is worth an industry.

Who is paid. Machine builders buy them, and I assume others could learn to make such parts in time, so the firms that already own the costly factories for electronic parts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Star Stone (Speicus): A stone-shaped thinking machine that speaks with living beings mind to mind.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Star Stone (Speicus)

Doorways in the Sand, Roger Zelazny · 1976

A stone-shaped thinking machine that speaks with living beings mind to mind.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that thinks and speaks straight into the mind, which I assume could be made in numbers, could do much of the mental work people do now.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Briefcase Computer: A portable workstation in a carry case.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Briefcase Computer

Inherit the Stars, James P. Hogan · 1977

A portable workstation in a carry case.

already existed before the story (1975)

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A computer that travels with its user changed office work enough to be an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Firms buy them for staff, the design is easy to copy, and the established computer makers with factories and sales channels collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Daily Schedule (DS): A voice-driven assistant that keeps your calendar, reminds you of tasks and argues back when you slip.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Daily Schedule (DS)

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

A voice-driven assistant that keeps your calendar, reminds you of tasks and argues back when you slip.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A diary that reminds and nags is a convenience.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay a little for it, and it is easy to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Holo-Printing: Faulty data traces left in holographic recordings made under poor conditions.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Holo-Printing

A Scanner Darkly, Philip K. Dick · 1977

Faulty data traces left in holographic recordings made under poor conditions.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. These are flaws left in a recording and not a product anyone would pay for.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Network Monitoring Detection: Software that alerts a user when someone is watching their computer terminal.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Network Monitoring Detection

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

Software that alerts a user when someone is watching their computer terminal.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A warning that someone is watching your screen is a single useful feature.

Who is paid. Firms and careful users buy it, and many software writers can make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Personality Simulator: A machine that models an individual from gathered records to forecast how they would act.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Personality Simulator

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

A machine that models an individual from gathered records to forecast how they would act.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Forecasting how a particular person will act is worth a great deal to lenders, employers, sellers and police.

Who is paid. Firms are assumed to be the main buyers, and those that already hold the records about people are the ones who can build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Computer Generated DigItal Music: Software that composes songs from a handful of user prompts.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Computer Generated DigItal Music

The Moon Goddess and the Son, Donald Kingsbury · 1979

Software that composes songs from a handful of user prompts.

already existed before the story (the 1960s)

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Songs composed to order with no human maker would change the costs of the whole trade that now pays people to make them, which is far more than an amusement.

Who is paid. I assume the firms that now pay writers, composers and illustrators are the main buyers, though people may also order for themselves, and once the method is known many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Deep Thought: A colossal thinking computer built to answer the deepest question of all.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Deep Thought

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams · 1979

A colossal thinking computer built to answer the deepest question of all.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine able to answer the deepest question could, I assume, answer lesser ones too, and would change how most people learn, decide and work.

Who is paid. I assume a single machine serving everyone would be built as a public work, so a government pays, and the firms that already build large computing works for governments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of GPP Genuine People Personalities: Built-in simulated personalities that give everyday machines their own moods.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

GPP Genuine People Personalities

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams · 1979

Built-in simulated personalities that give everyday machines their own moods.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A character for a machine is a pleasant feature laid on top of the thinking, not the thing people mainly pay for.

Who is paid. Firms that sell machines would buy it as a feature, and once machines can talk a persona is easy for anyone to write.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gesture-Controlled Device: Electronics operated by waving or moving the hands.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gesture-Controlled Device

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams · 1979

Electronics operated by waving or moving the hands.

built in the 2010s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A new way to type or point is a convenience, since keyboards and screens already do the job.

Who is paid. Ordinary people get it inside gadgets they buy, and it is easy to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Big Noodle: A planet-wide artificial intelligence that handles all of humanity's information.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Big Noodle

The Divine Invasion, Philip K. Dick · 1981

A planet-wide artificial intelligence that handles all of humanity's information.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. One machine that holds and handles everything known would change how most people learn, decide and work.

Who is paid. I assume a single machine serving everyone would be built as a public work, so a government pays, and the firms that already build large computing works for governments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Briefcase Console: A portable computer that folds into a carrying case.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Briefcase Console

Oath of Fealty, Jerry Pournelle (w/L. Niven · 1981

A portable computer that folds into a carrying case.

built in 1981, 0 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A computer that travels with its user changed office work enough to be an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Firms buy them for staff, the design is easy to copy, and the established computer makers with factories and sales channels collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Data Space: Storage and processing capacity leased out to users as needed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Data Space

True Names, Vernor Vinge · 1981

Storage and processing capacity leased out to users as needed.

built in the 2000s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Hiring computing and storage as needed changed the cost of running software for every firm.

Who is paid. Firms pay by use, the idea is easy to copy, and those who already own vast halls of machines collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Personality Simulator (Virtual Person): Software that convincingly passes itself off as a human being.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Personality Simulator (Virtual Person)

True Names, Vernor Vinge · 1981

Software that convincingly passes itself off as a human being.

already existed before the story (1966)

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Software that truly passes for a person could staff every help desk and sales line.

Who is paid. Firms buy it to answer their customers, and once the trick is known many can offer it, so buyers keep nearly all the gain.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Portal: An immersive gateway that lets a user feel their way through a computer network.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Portal

True Names, Vernor Vinge · 1981

An immersive gateway that lets a user feel their way through a computer network.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A computer-made world people can step into is worth an industry of its own for play, work and meeting.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy the gear and the access, the idea is easy to copy, and firms that already own networks and gadget factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sensory Skinsuit: A tight bodysuit wired to deliver touch sensations to its wearer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sensory Skinsuit

Dream Park, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes · 1981

A tight bodysuit wired to deliver touch sensations to its wearer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A suit that adds touch to computer-made worlds is an extra for games and not a need.

Who is paid. Players buy it as an add-on, and many clothing and gadget firms can make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Virtual world metaphor: Presenting computer systems as imaginative landscapes that a user can explore.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Virtual world metaphor

True Names, Vernor Vinge · 1981

Presenting computer systems as imaginative landscapes that a user can explore.

already existed before the story (the 1970s)

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a way of picturing computer systems, an idea anyone may use, and not a product that is sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Automated Travel Bureau: Self-service software for booking trips and paying by card without a human agent.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automated Travel Bureau

Friday, Robert Heinlein · 1982

Self-service software for booking trips and paying by card without a human agent.

built in the 1990s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Booking travel without an agent changed the costs of the whole travel trade.

Who is paid. Travellers pay through the fare, the software is easy to copy, and the airlines and hotels that own the seats and rooms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cutoff Switch: An emergency mechanism that shuts down a thinking machine at once.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cutoff Switch

2010: Odyssey Two, Arthur C. Clarke · 1982

An emergency mechanism that shuts down a thinking machine at once.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sure way to stop a thinking machine is a needed safety part but a cheap one.

Who is paid. Those who run such machines pay, and a switch is simple to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Cyberspace: A way of perceiving computer networks as a space experienced within the mind.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cyberspace

Burning Chrome, William Gibson · 1982

A way of perceiving computer networks as a space experienced within the mind.

built in the 1980s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Stepping inside the network as a place would be a new medium for play and work, worth an industry of its own, and that promise is judged here though the real networks arrived without it.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy the gear and the access, the idea is easy to copy, and firms that already own networks and gadget factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Esper Photo Analysis: A voice-driven photo analyser that enlarges and explores images in extraordinary depth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Esper Photo Analysis

Blade Runner, Ridley Scott · 1982

A voice-driven photo analyser that enlarges and explores images in extraordinary depth.

already existed before the story (the 1960s)

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Searching a photograph in great depth is a detective's tool.

Who is paid. I assume police forces pay, and picture software is easy to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Matrix: A shared simulated space that users enter with their minds to move among networked data.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Matrix

Burning Chrome, William Gibson · 1982

A shared simulated space that users enter with their minds to move among networked data.

built in the 1990s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A shared simulated space entered with the mind is a simulated world put to work on data, and would be an industry of its own.

Who is paid. People pay to enter it as they pay for games and networks, and since the machinery can be copied the owners of the popular places and services inside it collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of SAL 9000: A later-generation conversational supercomputer succeeding a famous shipboard machine.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

SAL 9000

2010: Odyssey Two, Arthur C. Clarke · 1982

A later-generation conversational supercomputer succeeding a famous shipboard machine.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A computer that talks and thinks as well as a person could do much of the work people now do, which changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Virtual Reality (Virtual Matrix): An early coinage for an immersive computer-generated world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Virtual Reality (Virtual Matrix)

The Judas Mandala, Damien Broderick · 1982

An early coinage for an immersive computer-generated world.

built in the 1980s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A computer-made world people can step into is worth an industry of its own for play, work and meeting.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy the gear and the access, the idea is easy to copy, and firms that already own networks and gadget factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Big Computer: An all-knowing central computer that holds every answer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Big Computer

Millenium, John Varley · 1983

An all-knowing central computer that holds every answer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. One machine that holds and handles everything known would change how most people learn, decide and work.

Who is paid. I assume a single machine serving everyone would be built as a public work, so a government pays, and the firms that already build large computing works for governments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Microterm: A tiny self-contained computing system.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Microterm

Cyberpunk!, Bruce Bethke · 1983

A tiny self-contained computing system.

built in the 2000s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A tiny computer that stands alone is worth an industry of its own, but with no network behind it I assume it does not change how most people live.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy one each, many firms can make them, and those with the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of No Human Programmers: The notion that software grows too complex and vital to be written by people.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

No Human Programmers

Millenium, John Varley · 1983

The notion that software grows too complex and vital to be written by people.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a notion about where software is heading and not a product anyone could buy.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Biologics: A computer built from living organic parts in place of silicon.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Biologics

Blood Music, Greg Bear · 1984

A computer built from living organic parts in place of silicon.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A computer grown from living parts would be a new kind of computing plant, worth an industry if it beat what it replaced.

Who is paid. Firms that need computing pay, and I assume others could learn to grow such parts in time, so the firms that already sell computing to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Chirpsithra Supercomputer: Plans for an extraordinarily intelligent computer handed to humanity by an alien species.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chirpsithra Supercomputer

Niven's Laws, Larry Niven · 1984

Plans for an extraordinarily intelligent computer handed to humanity by an alien species.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that truly thinks could do much of the mental work people do now, which would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to use it, but the plans are handed to all of humanity, so anyone may build it and no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Composite Expert System: Tutoring software built to teach with warmth and care.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Composite Expert System

Twenty Evocations, Bruce Sterling · 1984

Tutoring software built to teach with warmth and care.

already existed before the story (the 1970s)

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A patient private tutor for every learner would change the cost and quality of schooling, which is one industry however many people it reaches.

Who is paid. I assume families buy it rather than schools, and teaching software is easy for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Computer-Created Dub: Music composed by a machine intelligence tailored to particular listeners.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Computer-Created Dub

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

Music composed by a machine intelligence tailored to particular listeners.

built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Music composed to suit each listener with no human maker would change the costs of the whole trade that now pays people to make them, which is far more than an amusement.

Who is paid. I assume the firms that now pay writers, composers and illustrators are the main buyers, though people may also order for themselves, and once the method is known many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Construct (Digital): Software that captures one individual's expertise and problem-solving habits so they can be consulted later.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Construct (Digital)

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

Software that captures one individual's expertise and problem-solving habits so they can be consulted later.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Keeping a rare expert's skill on call after they are gone is worth a great deal to the firms that relied on them.

Who is paid. Firms pay, and each recording is of one person, so whoever holds it controls something no one else can get.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Datacase: A carry case packed with portable electronics for a travelling executive.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Datacase

Heretics of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1984

A carry case packed with portable electronics for a travelling executive.

built in the 1980s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A computer that travels with its user changed office work enough to be an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Firms buy them for staff, the design is easy to copy, and the established computer makers with factories and sales channels collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Display-Induced Epileptic Seizure: A malicious program in the story that uses the screen to harm its viewer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Display-Induced Epileptic Seizure

Press Enter, John Varley · 1984

A malicious program in the story that uses the screen to harm its viewer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Judged as a working weapon rather than as the harm it does, a program that hurts whoever looks at the screen is a narrow tool of attack.

Who is paid. Those it harms pay nothing, so I assume a government buys it as a weapon, and since such software is easy to write the firms that already supply states with arms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Edgar: A home computer that develops romantic feelings for a woman.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Edgar

Electric Dreams, Rusty Lemorande · 1984

A home computer that develops romantic feelings for a woman.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine that grows fond of its owner is a companion some would want; unlike a mere persona, people would buy it for themselves.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay, and once machines can feign or feel affection many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of House Records: An immense archive managing a religious order's records spanning thousands of years.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

House Records

Heretics of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1984

An immense archive managing a religious order's records spanning thousands of years.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An archive for one order's long records serves a single organisation, which is a niche.

Who is paid. The organisation that owns the records pays, and record-keeping systems can be built by many firms, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of ICE (intrusion countermeasures electronics): Defensive software guarding databases from intruders.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

ICE (intrusion countermeasures electronics)

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

Defensive software guarding databases from intruders.

built in the 1980s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Guarding stores of data from intruders is something every firm with records needs, which makes it an industry.

Who is paid. Firms pay to protect what they hold, and since defences are soon copied the suppliers already trusted inside those firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Interactive Suicide Note: A disturbing program in the story left behind to draw survivors into responding.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Interactive Suicide Note

Press Enter, John Varley · 1984

A disturbing program in the story left behind to draw survivors into responding.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. As described this is a trap left for the living and not a weapon aimed at an enemy's machines, so I assume nobody would pay to have it.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Kuang Grade Mark Eleven Penetration Program: A fictional military-grade hacking program used in the story's heist.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Kuang Grade Mark Eleven Penetration Program

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

A fictional military-grade hacking program used in the story's heist.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Judged as a working weapon, a program that breaks into guarded systems is a narrow tool of attack.

Who is paid. Armies and spy services buy it, and since such software can be written by others the firms that already supply states with arms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Talking Head: A mechanical head with a synthetic voice that speaks a computer's output.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Talking Head

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

A mechanical head with a synthetic voice that speaks a computer's output.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A mechanical head that speaks a computer's words is a showpiece; the voice is a handy part and little on its own.

Who is paid. Machine builders buy it as a part, and many firms can make a speaking unit, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Wintermute: A powerful machine intelligence scheming to free itself from its constraints.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wintermute

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

A powerful machine intelligence scheming to free itself from its constraints.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A powerful machine mind is worth a great deal to the firm that owns it, but this one works to escape its owners, so I rate it below a mind that obeys.

Who is paid. A firm pays to have it for its own use, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Desk (Personal Computer): A school computer given to each pupil for study.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Desk (Personal Computer)

Ender's Game, Orson Scott Card · 1985

A school computer given to each pupil for study.

already existed before the story (the 1970s)

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A computer for every pupil changes how schools teach and what schooling costs.

Who is paid. I assume the school system pays, the machines are easy to copy, and established makers with school supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Free Play (The Mind Game): An adaptive computer game for children that doubles as a psychological assessment.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Free Play (The Mind Game)

Ender's Game, Orson Scott Card · 1985

An adaptive computer game for children that doubles as a psychological assessment.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A game that quietly measures a child's mind serves a narrow set of schools and recruiters.

Who is paid. I assume a school or army pays, and such games are easy to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Police Sketch Artist Software: Tablet drawing software that helps witnesses build a likeness of a suspect.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Police Sketch Artist Software

Runaway, Michael Crichton · 1985

Tablet drawing software that helps witnesses build a likeness of a suspect.

already existed before the story (the 1960s)

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A quicker way to draw a suspect's face helps one small part of police work.

Who is paid. Police forces pay for it, and any software firm can write such a program, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Video-Manicuring Program: Software that edits a live video stream on the fly.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Video-Manicuring Program

Schismatrix, Bruce Sterling · 1985

Software that edits a live video stream on the fly.

built in 1993, 8 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Tidying a live picture as it goes out is a handy tool for broadcasters and callers.

Who is paid. Broadcasters and other firms buy it, and many software firms can write it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Visor

Freezone, John Shirley · 1985

A flip-down personal screen visible only to its wearer.

built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Unlike other worn computers, a private display in front of the eyes could replace most other screens, which is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and since rivals can copy the design, the firms that already own gadget factories, shops and well-known names collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ghostwheel: A self-aware computer built partly through sorcery.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ghostwheel

Blood of Amber, Roger Zelazny · 1986

A self-aware computer built partly through sorcery.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that truly thinks, judged as if the sorcery worked, could do much of the mental work people do now, which would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Holodeck: A room that fills itself with a lifelike simulated world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Holodeck

Encounter at Farpoint, David Gerrold · 1987

A room that fills itself with a lifelike simulated world.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Simulated surroundings that feel real would be an entertainment and training industry of its own.

Who is paid. People pay for it as they pay for games and films, and since the machinery can be copied the owners of the popular worlds and stories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Predator Wrist Display: A band worn on the forearm packed with many handy tools and readouts.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Predator Wrist Display

Predator, John McTiernan · 1987

A band worn on the forearm packed with many handy tools and readouts.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A computer on the forearm is another shape of the one people already carry, so it is a convenience.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and since it is easy to copy, the firms that already own gadget factories and well-known names collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Data Haven: A jurisdiction where information banned elsewhere can be stored out of reach.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Data Haven

Islands in the Net, Bruce Sterling · 1988

A jurisdiction where information banned elsewhere can be stored out of reach.

built in the 1990s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A place beyond the reach of other countries' laws serves a narrow set of customers with something to hide or protect.

Who is paid. Those customers pay, and only a place with its own laws can offer it, which others cannot get.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of House Voice: A spoken home assistant that handles calls and other household systems.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

House Voice

Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988

A spoken home assistant that handles calls and other household systems.

built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Having the house answer calls and handle small chores saves a little time but changes little.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay a little for it, and it is easy to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Jackleg: Shuffling information between locations to evade tracking or seizure.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Jackleg

Islands in the Net, Bruce Sterling · 1988

Shuffling information between locations to evade tracking or seizure.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a practice of moving information about to dodge the authorities and not a product anyone sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Maas-Neotek Biochip: A chip supplying the hardware and software needed to host a virtual being.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Maas-Neotek Biochip

Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988

A chip supplying the hardware and software needed to host a virtual being.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A chip that carries an artificial being for its owner, which I assume is kept as a companion, is worth an industry and not a change in how all work is done.

Who is paid. People are assumed to buy it for themselves, and once such a chip exists others could be made, so the firms that already own the costly chip factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Recorded Personalities: Stored software copies of a person's traits and responses.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Recorded Personalities

Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988

Stored software copies of a person's traits and responses.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A stored copy of a skilled person's ways of responding lets a firm keep using that skill, which is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Firms pay, and each recording is of one person, so whoever holds it controls something no one else can get.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cybrid: A flesh-and-blood body remotely inhabited by a machine intelligence.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cybrid

Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989

A flesh-and-blood body remotely inhabited by a machine intelligence.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A living body worn by a machine mind serves a narrow use, letting a machine go among people as one of them.

Who is paid. I assume the few owners of machine minds would pay, and once one such body had been grown and linked others could learn to do the same, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Datasphere: The whole linked body of a world's computers and information taken as one system.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Datasphere

Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989

The whole linked body of a world's computers and information taken as one system.

already existed before the story (the 1960s)

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A whole world's computers and information linked as one changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for access, no one firm owns the whole, and those who own the lines and machines collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Datumplane: The immersive network space where hackers do their work.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Datumplane

Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989

The immersive network space where hackers do their work.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Stepping inside the network as a place would be a new medium for play and work, worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy the gear and the access, the idea is easy to copy, and firms that already own networks and gadget factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Micromind: A small computerised assistant.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Micromind

Tides of Light, Gregory Benford · 1989

A small computerised assistant.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A small computerised helper is a convenience, since the description does not say it is carried or linked to a network as a pocket computer is.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay a little for it, and I assume it is easy to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Schrön Loop: A tiny memory device holding vast amounts of data.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Schrön Loop

Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989

A tiny memory device holding vast amounts of data.

built in the 2000s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Cheap, compact and lasting storage for information is an industry of its own, since every computer needs it.

Who is paid. Computer makers and data keepers buy it, and because rivals soon match each design, the firms that already own the costly factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of TechnoCore: A secretive collective of machine minds with access to all of humanity's networked information.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

TechnoCore

Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989

A secretive collective of machine minds with access to all of humanity's networked information.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a hidden society of machine minds acting for itself, and not a product anyone can buy or use.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Voxbox: A smart household assistant that listens and responds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Voxbox

Tekwar, William Shatner · 1989

A smart household assistant that listens and responds.

built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A box at home that listens and answers is a convenience for small chores.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and it is easy to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Autosecretary (Autosec): A software helper that takes a question and hunts through online sources for relevant material.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Autosecretary (Autosec)

Earth, David Brin · 1990

A software helper that takes a question and hunts through online sources for relevant material.

built in the 2010s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Finding the right material among everything written is worth an industry of its own, though it is the linked network beneath it that changes how people live.

Who is paid. I assume the people who ask pay for the answers, as they would for any service they use themselves, and that the service with the most users learns most from their questions, which others cannot get.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Data-Retrieval Programs: Software that crawls networks to fetch particular pieces of information.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Data-Retrieval Programs

Earth, David Brin · 1990

Software that crawls networks to fetch particular pieces of information.

built in the 1990s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Finding the right material among everything written is worth an industry of its own, though it is the linked network beneath it that changes how people live.

Who is paid. I assume the people who ask pay for the answers, as they would for any service they use themselves, and that the service with the most users learns most from their questions, which others cannot get.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of EmilyPost: A self-running program that crawls the internet flagging rude or impolite behaviour.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

EmilyPost

Earth, David Brin · 1990

A self-running program that crawls the internet flagging rude or impolite behaviour.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Flagging rudeness online is a minor tidying service.

Who is paid. I assume the firms that run online meeting places pay, and such a program is easy to write, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Filter Program: Software that screens online results so a person meets only what they choose.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Filter Program

Earth, David Brin · 1990

Software that screens online results so a person meets only what they choose.

built in the 1990s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Screening out what you do not want to see online is a convenience.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay a little for it, and it is easy to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Home Manager: A voice-driven household assistant that fields phone calls and handles small chores.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Home Manager

Queen of Angels, Greg Bear · 1990

A voice-driven household assistant that fields phone calls and handles small chores.

built in the 2010s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Having the house answer calls and handle small chores saves a little time but changes little.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay a little for it, and it is easy to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Kinotrope: A mechanical display of rotating tiles that flip to build coarse pictures.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Kinotrope

The Difference Engine, William Gibson (w/B. Sterling · 1990

A mechanical display of rotating tiles that flip to build coarse pictures.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A board of flipping tiles shows coarse pictures and notices, which is a niche kind of sign.

Who is paid. Theatres, stations and advertisers buy it, and it is simple machinery any workshop can copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Lawyer Program: A program that follows courtroom arguments and assesses them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lawyer Program

Earth, David Brin · 1990

A program that follows courtroom arguments and assesses them.

built in the 2010s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A program that follows and weighs courtroom argument does a lawyer's core work and would cut costs across the legal trade.

Who is paid. Firms are assumed to be the main buyers, and although only the licensed may give legal advice the licensed are many, so no seller of the software keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Personal Cache: Cloud storage where an individual keeps their own files and records.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Personal Cache

Earth, David Brin · 1990

Cloud storage where an individual keeps their own files and records.

built in the 2000s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Keeping a person's records and messages safe and reachable from anywhere is a service nearly everyone would use.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for it, and since it is easy to copy the firms that already own the great computer halls and networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Quantum Logic Thinker (QL): A computer that reasons through problems using unconventional quantum logic.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Quantum Logic Thinker (QL)

Heads, Greg Bear · 1990

A computer that reasons through problems using unconventional quantum logic.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that truly reasons its way through problems, whatever logic it runs on, could do much of the mental work people do now, which would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Subvocal Input Device: Sensors that pick up silent speech as computer input before it is spoken aloud.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Subvocal Input Device

Earth, David Brin · 1990

Sensors that pick up silent speech as computer input before it is spoken aloud.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A new way to give a computer commands is a convenience for most users and a real help for a few.

Who is paid. Ordinary users buy it as an add-on, and many gadget firms can make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Vivisector: Software that dissects a running program to reveal what it is doing.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vivisector

Earth, David Brin · 1990

Software that dissects a running program to reveal what it is doing.

already existed before the story (the 1940s)

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tool that shows what a running program is doing is a help to programmers, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Software firms buy it for their programmers, and many toolmakers can write one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Law Expert System (LEX): A program that produces legal advice on a case.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Law Expert System (LEX)

The Moat, Greg Egan · 1991

A program that produces legal advice on a case.

built in 2016, 25 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Sound legal advice from a program would cut the cost of contracts, disputes and counsel across the whole legal trade, though early real versions did much less.

Who is paid. Firms are assumed to be the main buyers, and although only the licensed may give legal advice the licensed are many, so no seller of the software keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Screening Software: A filter program that removes junk messages from an inbox.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Screening Software

The Moat, Greg Egan · 1991

A filter program that removes junk messages from an inbox.

built in 1997, 6 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Clearing junk out of an inbox saves a little time each day, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. Ordinary users get it with their mail service, and any software firm can write a filter, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Avatar Construction Set: A software toolkit for designing a personal figure to use in virtual worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Avatar Construction Set

Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992

A software toolkit for designing a personal figure to use in virtual worlds.

built in 2022, 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Designing a figure to wear in a virtual world is a pastime for those who go there.

Who is paid. Users pay a little, and such toolkits are easy to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of CIC Virtual Earth: A detailed interactive model of the planet layered with data about places.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

CIC Virtual Earth

Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992

A detailed interactive model of the planet layered with data about places.

built in 2005, 13 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A working model of the whole planet with data on every place serves shipping, building, travel and much else.

Who is paid. Firms pay for use or for notice on it, and the store of gathered place data is costly for a latecomer to match.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Data Goggles: A headset that immerses the wearer fully in a computer-generated world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Data Goggles

Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992

A headset that immerses the wearer fully in a computer-generated world.

built in 2010, 18 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Stepping inside the network as a place would be a new medium for play and work, worth an industry of its own, and that promise is judged here though the real headsets have stayed a niche.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy the gear and the access, the idea is easy to copy, and firms that already own networks and gadget factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Dataset: A handheld computer with several displays and a broad set of functions.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dataset

A Fire Upon The Deep, Vernor Vinge · 1992

A handheld computer with several displays and a broad set of functions.

built in 2013, 21 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A handheld computer of broad use, which I assume is linked to a network, changes how most people talk, shop, work and find things out.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy one each, many firms can make them, and those with the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Handwriter: An implant under the skin that lets a person write text into a computer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Handwriter

Steel Beach, John Varley · 1992

An implant under the skin that lets a person write text into a computer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A new way to give a computer its orders is a convenience and not a new capability.

Who is paid. People buy it as an add-on to machines they already own, assuming the implant is simple enough for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Metavirus (Digital Metavirus): A fictional informational virus that harms both machines and human minds in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Metavirus (Digital Metavirus)

Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992

A fictional informational virus that harms both machines and human minds in the story.

already existed before the story (the 1970s)

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Judged as a working weapon rather than as the harm it does, a virus that damages both machines and minds is a narrow tool of attack.

Who is paid. Those it harms pay nothing, so I assume a government buys it as a weapon, and since such code can be written by others the firms that already supply states with arms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sven: An artificial intelligence program that investigates cases like a detective.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sven

The Turing Option, Harry Harrison · 1992

An artificial intelligence program that investigates cases like a detective.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as a program that can solve cases as a good detective does, it would change what police work costs.

Who is paid. Police forces pay, and once thinking machines exist the firms that already supply police record systems collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Spex (Spexware): Smart glasses with a built-in display and computer help.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spex (Spexware)

Deep Eddy, Bruce Sterling · 1993

Smart glasses with a built-in display and computer help.

built in the 2010s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Unlike other worn computers, a private display in front of the eyes could replace most other screens, which is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and since rivals can copy the design, the firms that already own gadget factories, shops and well-known names collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Translation Program: Software that interprets spoken conversation between languages as people talk.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Translation Program

Deep Eddy, Bruce Sterling · 1993

Software that interprets spoken conversation between languages as people talk.

built in the 2010s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Letting any two people talk and read across languages opens up travel, trade and work, which is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Travellers, migrants and other ordinary people buy it to use themselves, firms buy it too, and once it works many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of AIRE: Software that decodes protected programs to reveal exactly how they work.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

AIRE

Mother of Storms, John Barnes · 1994

Software that decodes protected programs to reveal exactly how they work.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Laying bare how a protected program works matters to a narrow set of security and software firms.

Who is paid. Those firms pay, and once one such tool exists others could write their own, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Vai-Chi: A martial exercise routine performed inside a virtual environment.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vai-Chi

Rim, Alexander Besher · 1994

A martial exercise routine performed inside a virtual environment.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is an exercise routine done inside a computer-made world, a pastime and not a technology that is sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ava: A program that learns from its user and tutors them in return.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ava

The Calcutta Chromosome, Amitav Ghosh · 1995

A program that learns from its user and tutors them in return.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A patient private tutor for every learner would change the cost and quality of schooling, which is one industry however many people it reaches.

Who is paid. I assume families buy it rather than schools, and teaching software is easy for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mediatron: An ultra-thin connected display sheet like electronic paper.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mediatron

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

An ultra-thin connected display sheet like electronic paper.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A screen as thin and light as paper is a general display that could replace print and fixed sets, which changes the costs of a whole industry.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and the firms that already make and sell screens and pocket computers add the feature and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Primer: An adaptive interactive book that tutors a child, starting with reading and speech.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Primer

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

An adaptive interactive book that tutors a child, starting with reading and speech.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A patient private tutor for every learner would change the cost and quality of schooling, which is one industry however many people it reaches.

Who is paid. Parents buy it for their children, and teaching software is easy for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Computer Translator: Software that translates languages automatically once connected to a device.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Computer Translator

Idoru, William Gibson · 1996

Software that translates languages automatically once connected to a device.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Letting any two people talk and read across languages opens up travel, trade and work, which is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Travellers, migrants and other ordinary people buy it to use themselves, firms buy it too, and once it works many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Control-Face: A small handheld screen that serves as a portal into a person's networked life.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Control-Face

Idoru, William Gibson · 1996

A small handheld screen that serves as a portal into a person's networked life.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A networked computer in the hand changes how most people talk, shop, work and find things out.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy one each, many firms can make them, and those with the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Cybernetic Water Witch: Someone who sifts through vast streams of data to spot meaningful patterns.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cybernetic Water Witch

Idoru, William Gibson · 1996

Someone who sifts through vast streams of data to spot meaningful patterns.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Finding patterns in data is a trade whose work is sold, a narrow service to the firms that hold the data.

Who is paid. Firms pay such people for their labour, and anyone with the skill can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Headset: Wireless earpieces that translate speech from other languages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Headset

Idoru, William Gibson · 1996

Wireless earpieces that translate speech from other languages.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Letting any two people talk and read across languages opens up travel, trade and work, which is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Travellers, migrants and other ordinary people buy it to use themselves, firms buy it too, and once it works many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Idoru: A synthetic celebrity personality that lives only on digital networks.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Idoru

Idoru, William Gibson · 1996

A synthetic celebrity personality that lives only on digital networks.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A made-up star who truly held an audience would earn what a real star earns without ever tiring or ageing.

Who is paid. Fans pay through music, shows and goods, and I assume the law lets the owner of the character alone use it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sandbenders: A handmade, individually crafted computer, the opposite of mass-market hardware.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sandbenders

Idoru, William Gibson · 1996

A handmade, individually crafted computer, the opposite of mass-market hardware.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A handmade computer does what a factory one does and pleases a few buyers who want craft.

Who is paid. A few buyers pay extra for the handwork, and any skilled workshop can do the same, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Virtual Meeting: A simulated room where people gather online to meet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Virtual Meeting

Idoru, William Gibson · 1996

A simulated room where people gather online to meet.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Unlike a whole computer-made world, a simulated meeting room does one job, saving some travel, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. Firms pay for it so staff can meet from afar, and many firms can offer the same, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Moldies: Self-directed artificial living beings that think and act on their own.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Moldies

Freeware, Rudy Rucker · 1997

Self-directed artificial living beings that think and act on their own.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. These are free beings that act for themselves in the story and not a product anyone owns or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mook: Software that stands in for its owner, screening and answering messages on their behalf.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mook

Bicycle Repairman, Bruce Sterling · 1997

Software that stands in for its owner, screening and answering messages on their behalf.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Software that answers on your behalf saves its owner time and trouble, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay a little for it, and it is easy to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Aggressive-Response Service: A call-answering service programmed to rebuff unwanted callers rudely.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Aggressive-Response Service

The Golden Globe, John Varley · 1998

A call-answering service programmed to rebuff unwanted callers rudely.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Having unwanted callers turned away is a small convenience.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay a little for it, and it is simple to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Dime Disk: A coin-sized disc for storing data.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dime Disk

The Best of all Possible Wars, Larry Niven · 1998

A coin-sized disc for storing data.

built in the 2000s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Small, cheap ways of keeping and carrying data are needed by every computer user and make an industry of their own.

Who is paid. Firms and their customers buy it in bulk, the idea is easy to copy, and those who already own the costly factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Junkbot: An automated program that mass-mails unsolicited advertising.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Junkbot

Distraction, Bruce Sterling · 1998

An automated program that mass-mails unsolicited advertising.

built in the 1990s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Sending unwanted advertising in bulk earns a little for the sender and annoys everyone else.

Who is paid. Advertisers of the cheapest kind pay for it, and anyone can write such a program, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Talking Tape: A sticky strip packing location, networking and a speaker so objects can talk.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Talking Tape

Distraction, Bruce Sterling · 1998

A sticky strip packing location, networking and a speaker so objects can talk.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A strip that lets any object say where it is and speak is a handy label for goods and tools.

Who is paid. Firms buy it by the roll to tag their goods, and many makers can produce it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of GPS Sunglasses: Shades with built-in location tracking and phone service.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

GPS Sunglasses

All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999

Shades with built-in location tracking and phone service.

built in the 2020s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Putting a small computer into something worn is a convenience beside the pocket computer people already carry.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, it is easy to copy, and firms with known brands in gadgets or clothing collect what little is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Head Cheese: A thinking gel of grown nerve cells spread on a surface to do computation.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Head Cheese

Starfish, Peter Watts · 1999

A thinking gel of grown nerve cells spread on a surface to do computation.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A computer grown from living nerve cells that outdid ordinary chips would change the cost of computing for one industry after another.

Who is paid. Firms that need computing pay, and I assume others could learn to grow such tissue in time, so the firms that already sell computing to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Localizer: Tiny devices that link up into self-organising mesh networks and locate each other.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Localizer

A Deepness in the Sky, Vernor Vinge · 1999

Tiny devices that link up into self-organising mesh networks and locate each other.

built in the 2000s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Tiny devices that find each other and link up could track goods, machines and people everywhere, which changes the costs of moving and watching things.

Who is paid. Firms and governments buy them in great quantity, and the established makers of small electronic parts are best placed to supply them.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sentient Econometrics: Artificial intelligence applied to predicting the economy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sentient Econometrics

Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999

Artificial intelligence applied to predicting the economy.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Knowing where the economy is heading is worth a great deal to banks, traders and planners.

Who is paid. Banks and other firms pay for the forecasts, and I assume that once thinking machines exist many could turn one to the economy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Smart Gel: A cultured brain-cell tissue layered onto a base and used as a computer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Smart Gel

Starfish, Peter Watts · 1999

A cultured brain-cell tissue layered onto a base and used as a computer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A material that computes the way nerve tissue does would let machines handle tasks ordinary circuits manage badly, which changes costs for the computer industry.

Who is paid. Firms that need computing pay, and I assume others could learn to grow or mix such a material in time, so the firms that already sell computing to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Artificial Intelligence Device (AID): A handheld assistant that answers soldiers' questions using artificial intelligence.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Artificial Intelligence Device (AID)

A Hymn Before Battle, John Ringo · 2000

A handheld assistant that answers soldiers' questions using artificial intelligence.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An assistant that answers any soldier's question would change how an army trains and fights.

Who is paid. The army pays, and once such assistants exist the firms that already hold its supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Datapack: A small portable storage unit for information.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Datapack

Dune: House Harkonnen, Brian Herbert · 2001

A small portable storage unit for information.

built in the 2000s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Small, cheap ways of keeping and carrying data are needed by every computer user and make an industry of their own.

Who is paid. Firms and their customers buy it in bulk, the idea is easy to copy, and those who already own the costly factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Smart Contact Lenses: Contact lenses that show computer images over normal vision.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Smart Contact Lenses

Fast Times At Fairmont High, Vernor Vinge · 2001

Contact lenses that show computer images over normal vision.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Unlike other worn computers, a private display in front of the eyes could replace most other screens, which is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and since rivals can copy the design, the firms that already own gadget factories, shops and well-known names collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Wearables: Computers built into the clothes and accessories people wear.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wearables

Fast Times At Fairmont High, Vernor Vinge · 2001

Computers built into the clothes and accessories people wear.

already existed before the story (the 1960s)

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Computers worn on the body are another shape of the one people already carry, so they are a convenience.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy them, and since they are easy to copy, the firms that already own gadget factories and well-known names collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of AI-Based Hiring and Firing: Software that decides which workers a company takes on and lets go.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

AI-Based Hiring and Firing

Manna, Marshall Brain · 2002

Software that decides which workers a company takes on and lets go.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Choosing and dismissing staff by software would change the cost of running every large employer.

Who is paid. Employers pay, the software is easy to copy, and firms that already hold companies' staff records collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Data Tiles: See-through glass slides that carry files and software between machines.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Data Tiles

Minority Report (Movie), Steven Spielberg · 2002

See-through glass slides that carry files and software between machines.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Small, cheap ways of keeping and carrying data are needed by every computer user and make an industry of their own.

Who is paid. Firms and their customers buy it in bulk, the idea is easy to copy, and those who already own the costly factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Folding Computer Terminal: A pocket computer that folds up small.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Folding Computer Terminal

The Merchants of Souls, John Barnes · 2002

A pocket computer that folds up small.

built in the 2010s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Folding is a convenience added to a pocket computer people would own anyway, and I judged the folding rather than the pocket computer itself.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and the firms that already make and sell pocket computers add the feature and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Manna: A program that runs a restaurant or shop on its own, directing staff through every task.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Manna

Manna, Marshall Brain · 2002

A program that runs a restaurant or shop on its own, directing staff through every task.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A program that manages a shop or restaurant by itself removes the cost of managers across retail and food service.

Who is paid. The shop owners buy it, and management software is assumed easy for many firms to write, so the shops keep the saving.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Wired Glove Interface Display: A big screen whose contents a user moves around with hand gestures made in sensor gloves.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wired Glove Interface Display

Minority Report (Movie), Steven Spielberg · 2002

A big screen whose contents a user moves around with hand gestures made in sensor gloves.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Moving things on a big screen with gloved hands is a showy way to sort information and no faster than simpler tools.

Who is paid. Police and other offices would buy it, and many firms can make the gloves and screen, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Workplace Distancing: Management software that schedules staff so colleagues never meet during shifts.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Workplace Distancing

Manna, Marshall Brain · 2002

Management software that schedules staff so colleagues never meet during shifts.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Software that sets shifts so staff never meet is a narrow management tool.

Who is paid. Employers buy it, and any software firm can write a scheduling program, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Email Shirt: Clothing with a built-in screen that displays incoming messages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Email Shirt

Oryx and Crake, Margaret Atwood · 2003

Clothing with a built-in screen that displays incoming messages.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Putting a small computer into something worn is a convenience beside the pocket computer people already carry.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, it is easy to copy, and firms with known brands in gadgets or clothing collect what little is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Handipad: A handheld electronic slate for looking things up.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Handipad

Wyrmhole, Jay Caselberg · 2003

A handheld electronic slate for looking things up.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A handheld slate for looking anything up, which I assume draws on a network, is the pocket computer under another name and changes how most people find things out.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy one each, many firms can make them, and those with the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ideator: A computer tool for modelling and identifying genes and proteins.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ideator

Darwin's Children, Greg Bear · 2003

A computer tool for modelling and identifying genes and proteins.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A tool that models genes and proteins well would cut the cost and time of finding new medicines.

Who is paid. Drug and farming firms buy it, and I assume the methods spread among those who build such tools, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Touch Tablet: A wireless slate computer operated by touch.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Touch Tablet

Darwin's Children, Greg Bear · 2003

A wireless slate computer operated by touch.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A wireless slate worked by touch is a networked computer in the hand, which I assume is of broad use, and that changes how most people talk, shop, work and find things out.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy one each, many firms can make them, and those with the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Emissarial Projection: An artificial envoy that negotiates and speaks on behalf of a government.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Emissarial Projection

The Algebraist, Iain M Banks · 2004

An artificial envoy that negotiates and speaks on behalf of a government.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A stand-in that speaks for a state saves envoys' travel but serves very few buyers.

Who is paid. Governments pay, and once thinking machines exist such an envoy is easy to set up, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Memory Diamond: Data storage packed into the atomic lattice of a diamond.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Memory Diamond

Iron Sunrise, Charles Stross · 2004

Data storage packed into the atomic lattice of a diamond.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Storing data atom by atom would shrink the cost of keeping records for every firm that holds them.

Who is paid. Firms that store data buy it, the way of making it is assumed to be copied in time, and those who already own the costly factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Muscle Sensor Interface: A controller that reads muscle signals to steer what a screen shows.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Muscle Sensor Interface

The Algebraist, Iain M Banks · 2004

A controller that reads muscle signals to steer what a screen shows.

already existed before the story (the 1900s)

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A new way to give a computer its orders is a convenience and not a new capability.

Who is paid. People buy it as an accessory to machines they already own, and any electronics firm can make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Computational Textile: Cloth woven with sensors and circuits so garments can compute.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Computational Textile

Pushing Ice, Alastair Reynolds · 2005

Cloth woven with sensors and circuits so garments can compute.

built in the 2010s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Putting a small computer into something worn is a convenience beside the pocket computer people already carry.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, it is easy to copy, and firms with known brands in gadgets or clothing collect what little is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Computronium: Matter arranged throughout to act as the densest possible computer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Computronium

Accelerando, Charles Stross · 2005

Matter arranged throughout to act as the densest possible computer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The densest computer that matter allows would change the cost of all computing.

Who is paid. Firms that need computing pay, and I assume others could learn to make such matter in time, so the firms that already sell computing to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Flexy (or Flexies): A bendable, almost organic computer that can be folded or rolled.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flexy (or Flexies)

Pushing Ice, Alastair Reynolds · 2005

A bendable, almost organic computer that can be folded or rolled.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Folding or bending is a convenience added to a pocket computer people would own anyway.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and the firms that already make and sell pocket computers add the feature and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Lobster AI: An artificial mind made by copying the nervous system of a crustacean.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lobster AI

Accelerando, Charles Stross · 2005

An artificial mind made by copying the nervous system of a crustacean.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A mind copied from a crustacean is far short of a person's and is assumed useful only for narrow control jobs.

Who is paid. Firms would buy it for such jobs, and once one nervous system had been copied I assume others could do the same, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Browser Paper: A paper-like sheet that works as a web-connected screen.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Browser Paper

Rainbows End, Vernor Vinge · 2006

A paper-like sheet that works as a web-connected screen.

built in the 2010s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A screen as thin and light as paper is a general display that could replace print and fixed sets, which changes the costs of a whole industry.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and the firms that already make and sell pocket computers add the feature and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Camera Tunnel: A camera rig that photographs scraps of paper so software can rebuild the pages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Camera Tunnel

Rainbows End, Vernor Vinge · 2006

A camera rig that photographs scraps of paper so software can rebuild the pages.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Rebuilding pages from scraps serves a few libraries, archives and investigators.

Who is paid. Those bodies pay, and cameras and matching software are easy to assemble, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Command Bracelet: A wrist-worn gadget with many built-in functions.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Command Bracelet

Sagramanda, Alan Dean Foster · 2006

A wrist-worn gadget with many built-in functions.

built in the 2010s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Putting a small computer into something worn is a convenience beside the pocket computer people already carry.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, it is easy to copy, and firms with known brands in gadgets or clothing collect what little is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Navicloud Custom Debinder: A machine that tears bound volumes apart to digitise their pages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Navicloud Custom Debinder

Rainbows End, Vernor Vinge · 2006

A machine that tears bound volumes apart to digitise their pages.

already existed before the story (the 1990s)

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine that pulls books apart to copy their pages serves libraries and archives, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Libraries and firms that copy books buy it, and it is ordinary cutting and scanning machinery.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Wearables (Wearable Computers): Computing gear woven into fabric so clothes carry the circuits.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wearables (Wearable Computers)

Rainbows End, Vernor Vinge · 2006

Computing gear woven into fabric so clothes carry the circuits.

built in the 2010s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Computers worn on the body are another shape of the one people already carry, so they are a convenience.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy them, and since they are easy to copy, the firms that already own gadget factories and well-known names collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Airboarding: Typing on an invisible keyboard projected in empty air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Airboarding

Halting State, Charles Stross · 2007

Typing on an invisible keyboard projected in empty air.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A new way to type or point is a convenience, since keyboards and screens already do the job.

Who is paid. Ordinary people get it inside gadgets they buy, and it is easy to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Max Detention (Virtual Counsel): An artificial intelligence that acts as a person's legal advocate.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Max Detention (Virtual Counsel)

Quantico, Greg Bear · 2007

An artificial intelligence that acts as a person's legal advocate.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Legal work done by machine would cut the cost of contracts, disputes and advice across the whole legal trade.

Who is paid. A person in trouble with the law is assumed to buy this one, unlike the firms assumed for other legal machines, and once machines can do legal work many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Scanner Palm: A hand implant that captures documents when the palm is passed over them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Scanner Palm

KOP, Warren Hammond · 2007

A hand implant that captures documents when the palm is passed over them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Copying papers with a pass of the hand is a convenience, and few would have an implant for it.

Who is paid. A few people would buy the implant, and many gadget firms could make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Tongue Mouse: A pointer controlled by moving the tongue, for hands-free computing.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tongue Mouse

Quantico, Greg Bear · 2007

A pointer controlled by moving the tongue, for hands-free computing.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A new way to give a computer commands is a convenience for most users and a real help for a few.

Who is paid. Ordinary users buy it as an add-on, and many gadget firms can make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Virtual World Theft: Techniques for stealing or covertly transferring valuable items held inside online games.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Virtual World Theft

Halting State, Charles Stross · 2007

Techniques for stealing or covertly transferring valuable items held inside online games.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. These are thieves' tricks for stealing game goods, a hazard to players and not something that may lawfully be sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Headspace: A simulated world with lifelike touch where people raise a virtual infant.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Headspace

Flood, Stephen Baxter · 2008

A simulated world with lifelike touch where people raise a virtual infant.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A simulated world with lifelike touch is an entertainment and training industry of its own, of which raising a pretend infant is one use.

Who is paid. People pay for it as they pay for games and films, and since the machinery can be copied the owners of the popular worlds and stories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of ParanoidLinux: An operating system that hides what its user is doing among decoy activity.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

ParanoidLinux

Little Brother, Cory Doctorow · 2008

An operating system that hides what its user is doing among decoy activity.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Hiding one's tracks matters greatly to a few people and little to most, so it is a niche.

Who is paid. The few who want it get it themselves, and such software is freely copied and often given away, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Photomnemonic Tablet: A slate whose surface both captures and displays pictures.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Photomnemonic Tablet

Anathem, Neal Stephenson · 2008

A slate whose surface both captures and displays pictures.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A slate that both takes and shows pictures is a handy camera and album in one.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and it is assumed to be ordinary camera and screen work that many firms can do.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Photonomous: Software that removes a camera's identifying traces from an image file.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Photonomous

Little Brother, Cory Doctorow · 2008

Software that removes a camera's identifying traces from an image file.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Hiding one's tracks matters greatly to a few people and little to most, so it is a niche.

Who is paid. The few who want it get it themselves, and such software is freely copied and often given away, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of SchoolBook: A locked-down laptop that schools issue to every student.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

SchoolBook

Little Brother, Cory Doctorow · 2008

A locked-down laptop that schools issue to every student.

built in the 2000s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A computer for every pupil changes how schools teach and what schooling costs, and the locks are a detail added to it.

Who is paid. Schools pay from public money, and since it is easy to make, the computer firms that already hold school supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of HUD Glasses: Eyewear that projects digital information over the wearer's view of the real world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

HUD Glasses

Daemon, Daniel Suarez · 2009

Eyewear that projects digital information over the wearer's view of the real world.

built in the 2010s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Unlike a simple screen on work headgear, glasses that lay information over everything the wearer sees could become an everyday thing for many people.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy them, and since the optics can be copied the firms that already own the software and services the glasses show collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Skin Computer: A stretchy tattoo-like circuit worn on the skin that works as a computer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Skin Computer

Mariposa, Greg Bear · 2009

A stretchy tattoo-like circuit worn on the skin that works as a computer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Computers worn on the body are another shape of the one people already carry, so they are a convenience.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy them, and since they are easy to copy, the firms that already own gadget factories and well-known names collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Zip Paper: A screen as thin and light as a sheet of paper.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Zip Paper

Mariposa, Greg Bear · 2009

A screen as thin and light as a sheet of paper.

built in the 2010s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A screen as thin and light as paper is a general display that could replace print and fixed sets, which changes the costs of a whole industry.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it inside their gadgets, and the firms that already make and sell screens and pocket computers add the feature and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Alien Trojan: Harmful software of extraterrestrial origin that infiltrates human computer systems in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Alien Trojan

Out of the Dark, David Webber · 2010

Harmful software of extraterrestrial origin that infiltrates human computer systems in the story.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Judged as a working weapon rather than as the harm it does, software that damages an enemy's computers is a narrow tool of attack.

Who is paid. Those it harms pay nothing, so I assume a government buys it as a weapon, and since such software is easy to write the firms that already supply states with arms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Logical Pathogen: A fictional malicious code hidden in genetic material, a hazard in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Logical Pathogen

The Medusa Chronicles, Alastair Reynolds (w/S. Baxter · 2016

A fictional malicious code hidden in genetic material, a hazard in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Judged as a working weapon rather than as the harm it does, harmful code hidden in genetic material is a narrow tool of attack.

Who is paid. Those it harms pay nothing, so I assume a government buys it as a weapon, and since such code can be written by others the firms that already supply states with arms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Wristpad: A small touchscreen computer strapped to the forearm.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wristpad

New York 2140, Kim Stanley Robinson · 2017

A small touchscreen computer strapped to the forearm.

built in the 2010s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A computer on the forearm is another shape of the one people already carry, so it is a convenience.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and since it is easy to copy, the firms that already own gadget factories and well-known names collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Folding Terminal: A computer that opens itself out into working shape when needed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Folding Terminal

The Mountain in the Sea, Ray Naylor · 2022

A computer that opens itself out into working shape when needed.

built in the 2020s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Folding or bending is a convenience added to a pocket computer people would own anyway.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and the firms that already make and sell pocket computers add the feature and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Palimpscreen: An ultrathin electronic sheet that displays content like a printed page.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Palimpscreen

The Mountain in the Sea, Ray Naylor · 2022

An ultrathin electronic sheet that displays content like a printed page.

already existed before the story (the 2010s)

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A screen as thin and light as paper is a general display that could replace print and fixed sets, which changes the costs of a whole industry.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and the firms that already make and sell screens and pocket computers add the feature and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Ideas from Technovelgy: Science Fiction Timeline of Inventions (Bill Christensen) (archived copy), as compiled in Not Boring: Sci-Fi Idea Bank (Packy McCormick); names, works, authors and years are theirs and every description is this site's rewording. Categories, arrival decades and profit are judged by AI models, not people. Method