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Futures · expected

Expected in the 2040s

Dated forecasts that name this time, as their authors stated them, then the unbuilt ideas AI models placed here.

What authors forecast for the 2040s

  • Besiroglu, slightly more bullish than colleague Ege Erdil, shades Erdil's forecast of around 2045 for fully replacing remote workers by about five years or a fifth, to near 2040.

    Tamay Besiroglu · 2040 · on the prediction ledger

    From AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu, Dwarkesh Patel, 2025

  • Ege Erdil tentatively puts a drop-in AI replacement for a remote worker at around 2045.

    Ege Erdil · 2045 · on the prediction ledger

    From AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu, Dwarkesh Patel, 2025

  • Kurzweil dates the Singularity to about 2045, when machine intelligence far exceeds all human intelligence combined and people extend their minds millions-fold.

    Ray Kurzweil · 2045 · on the prediction ledger

    From The Singularity Is Nearer, Ray Kurzweil, 2024; Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality (Lex Fridman #321), Lex Fridman, 2022; The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005; The Technological Singularity, Murray Shanahan, 2015; The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence (parts 1 & 2), Tim Urban, 2015

  • Christiano puts about forty percent odds on AI able to build a Dyson sphere arriving by 2040.

    Paul Christiano · by 2040 · forty percent · on the prediction ledger

    From Paul Christiano — Preventing an AI takeover, Dwarkesh Patel, 2023

  • Christiano, hedging heavily, thinks better algorithms will probably multiply effective training compute roughly a thousand to ten thousand fold by 2040.

    Paul Christiano · by 2040

    From Paul Christiano — Preventing an AI takeover, Dwarkesh Patel, 2023

  • Kurzweil extrapolates that, at the current pace, renewables could in theory supply all of the world's electricity by 2041.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2041 · in theory

    From The Singularity Is Nearer, Ray Kurzweil, 2024

  • Davidson's takeoff model puts its median, even odds, on AI able to readily automate all cognitive work in the economy by 2043.

    Tom Davidson · by 2043 · fifty percent · AI can readily automate 100% of cognitive tasks · on the prediction ledger

    From What a Compute-Centric Framework Says About Takeoff Speeds, Tom Davidson, 2023

  • Kurzweil argues that within roughly two decades machines will be able to emulate human brains in all respects people care about.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2044

    From The Singularity Is Nearer, Ray Kurzweil, 2024

  • MacAskill judges the odds of AGI this century to be high, and says most of that chance lies within the next twenty years.

    William MacAskill · by 2045 · high this century, most of it within two decades · The probability of reaching AGI this century is high

    From Better Futures (essay series), William MacAskill et al. (Forethought), 2025

  • MacAskill and Moorhouse judge it fairly likely that AI matches the best human research performance within the next decade or two.

    William MacAskill and Fin Moorhouse · by 2045 · fairly likely · parity with the best human performance at research within the coming decade or two · on the prediction ledger

    From Preparing for the Intelligence Explosion, William MacAskill & Fin Moorhouse, 2025

  • Kurzweil expects a thousand dollars of computing to reach around a hundred septillion operations per second by the mid-2040s.

    Ray Kurzweil · the 2040s

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005; The Technological Singularity, Murray Shanahan, 2015

Unbuilt ideas AI models place here

Space travel and habitats · 42
Illustration of Flywheel Launcher: Huge spinning wheels store energy and then fling a vehicle upward fast enough to reach space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flywheel Launcher

The Brick Moon, Edward Everett Hale · 1869

Huge spinning wheels store energy and then fling a vehicle upward fast enough to reach space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Flinging or pushing payloads to space without big rockets would change the cost of the whole launch industry.

Who is paid. Firms with cargo to launch pay, and since others could build such works the gain goes to those who already own launch sites and power.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Asteroid Mining: Flying to small rocky bodies in space to extract their metals.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Asteroid Mining

Edison's Conquest of Mars, Garrett P. Serviss · 1898

Flying to small rocky bodies in space to extract their metals.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Metal and other materials from space rocks would be an industry of its own and could change the cost of raw materials.

Who is paid. Factories and builders buy the output, and since mining methods are easy to copy the firms that already own ships and refineries collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ship's Artificial Gravity: Onboard means of giving crew a sense of weight while their spacecraft travels.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ship's Artificial Gravity

Buck Rogers, 2430 AD, Philip Nowlan (w/D. Calkins · 1929

Onboard means of giving crew a sense of weight while their spacecraft travels.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Weight underfoot on any ship would be fitted almost everywhere people live in space, assuming here a generator and not a spinning hull.

Who is paid. Ship and station operators buy it, and once it worked other makers could copy it, so established builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Moon Dome: A lasting enclosed shelter on the lunar surface where people can live.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Moon Dome

Brigands of the Moon, Ray Cummings · 1930

A lasting enclosed shelter on the lunar surface where people can live.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A place for many people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.

Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Liner: A big commercial craft that carries paying travellers between worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Liner

On Board the Martian Liner, Miles J. Breuer · 1931

A big commercial craft that carries paying travellers between worlds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Scheduled passenger travel between worlds would be a transport industry of its own.

Who is paid. The carrier buys the ship and sells the seats, and since many yards could build such a vessel the builders and carriers that already own fleets and ports collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space-Liner: A large vessel that ferries paying passengers through space on a schedule.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space-Liner

Twelve Hours To Live, Jack Williamson · 1931

A large vessel that ferries paying passengers through space on a schedule.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Scheduled passenger travel between worlds would be a transport industry of its own.

Who is paid. The carrier buys the ship and sells the seats, and since many yards could build such a vessel the builders and carriers that already own fleets and ports collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Asteroid Mining (Blasting): Plants explosives on a space rock to break it apart and extract its resources.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Asteroid Mining (Blasting)

Asteroid of Gold, Clifford Simak · 1932

Plants explosives on a space rock to break it apart and extract its resources.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Metal and other materials from space rocks would be an industry of its own and could change the cost of raw materials.

Who is paid. Factories and builders buy the output, and since mining methods are easy to copy the firms that already own ships and refineries collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Helix Gun: A coil-shaped magnetic device that snags iron-bearing space rocks drifting past.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Helix Gun

Salvage in Space, Jack Williamson · 1933

A coil-shaped magnetic device that snags iron-bearing space rocks drifting past.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a tool for catching or shifting rock, useful only to those who mine in space.

Who is paid. Mining firms buy it, and makers of mining gear supply it since the design is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Meteor Miner: Prospectors travel among asteroids searching for rocks rich enough in metal to haul back and sell.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Meteor Miner

Salvage in Space, Jack Williamson · 1933

Prospectors travel among asteroids searching for rocks rich enough in metal to haul back and sell.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Prospecting among space rocks is paid work, a service and not a product.

Who is paid. Mining firms and metal buyers pay the prospectors, and anyone can train for the work, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Magno-Bars: Rods tipped with electromagnets let space prospectors grab and haul away iron-laden rocks.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magno-Bars

The Meteor Miners, L.A. Eshbach · 1935

Rods tipped with electromagnets let space prospectors grab and haul away iron-laden rocks.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a tool for catching or shifting rock, useful only to those who mine in space.

Who is paid. Mining firms buy it, and makers of mining gear supply it since the design is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Meteor Swarm Mining: Groups of spacecraft sweep through clouds of space debris collecting iron to sell.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Meteor Swarm Mining

The Meteor Miners, L.A. Eshbach · 1935

Groups of spacecraft sweep through clouds of space debris collecting iron to sell.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Materials taken from other worlds and from loose rock in space would feed an industry of their own.

Who is paid. Firms that need the material pay for it, and since others could dig the same way the gain goes to those who already own the ships and claims.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Rocketeering: Racing rocket-powered craft as a sport.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rocketeering

Ra For The Rajah, John Victor Peterson · 1938

Racing rocket-powered craft as a sport.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Racing rocket craft for sport is a costly pastime for a few racers and those who watch them.

Who is paid. Racers buy the craft and crowds pay to watch, and since any yard could build a racing craft the established builders of small craft collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Cyclotronic Ore-Hurler: Uses an asteroid's magnetism to fling mined rock across space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cyclotronic Ore-Hurler

Exit From Asteroid 60, D.L. James · 1940

Uses an asteroid's magnetism to fling mined rock across space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Unlike a launch track serving all cargo, this only moves ore from a mine, a tool within space mining.

Who is paid. Mining firms pay for it, and makers of mining and launch gear could all build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Joy-boat Junior: A personally owned pleasure craft that can make short hops above the atmosphere.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Joy-boat Junior

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

A personally owned pleasure craft that can make short hops above the atmosphere.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A private pleasure craft for hops above the air is a luxury for a few owners, like the other yachts.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy the craft for themselves, and since others could copy it the established vehicle builders and their dealers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Orbital Mirror: A giant reflector circling a world that directs sunlight down onto the ground.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Orbital Mirror

Completely Automatic, Theodore Sturgeon · 1941

A giant reflector circling a world that directs sunlight down onto the ground.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Unlike a mirror that remakes a whole world, this lights or warms chosen regions of the ground, worth an industry but not a new world.

Who is paid. Light falling on a region cannot be charged to each person under it, so a government is assumed to pay, and established satellite builders supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Igloo-Shaped Space Shelter: A dome-shaped habitat that goes up quickly on airless rocks in space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Igloo-Shaped Space Shelter

Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942

A dome-shaped habitat that goes up quickly on airless rocks in space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A shelter that goes up quickly serves small parties working on airless ground, a niche.

Who is paid. No user is named, so it is assumed that firms working on other worlds buy it as working gear, and a shelter that must hold air against vacuum is made by the established makers of suits and habitats, any of whom could copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Insosuit: Protective spacewear built to survive intense heat on scorching worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Insosuit

Runaround, Isaac Asimov · 1942

Protective spacewear built to survive intense heat on scorching worlds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A suit that keeps a person alive in a hostile place is vital to its wearer but serves only the few who work there.

Who is paid. Space operators buy suits for their crews, and the few firms that already make such gear supply them since the design can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Meteorscope: Scans the route ahead of a ship to spot clouds of dangerous space debris.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Meteorscope

The World With A Thousand Moons, Edmond Hamilton · 1942

Scans the route ahead of a ship to spot clouds of dangerous space debris.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Warning of rocks ahead keeps a ship safe, but it is a fitting on the craft, not an industry.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and the firms that already make ship instruments supply it since the design can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Deceleration Chambers: Ship sections designed to split off under strain so each piece might keep its occupants alive.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Deceleration Chambers

The Storm, A.E. van Vogt · 1943

Ship sections designed to split off under strain so each piece might keep its occupants alive.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It saves lives in a disaster, but it is safety equipment carried aboard a larger ship.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as required safety gear, and shipbuilders supply it because the design is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Manshell: A tiny spacecraft sized for one occupant, also used as a lifeboat.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Manshell

Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943

A tiny spacecraft sized for one occupant, also used as a lifeboat.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tiny craft for a lone occupant that also serves as a lifeboat is a niche fitting.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as part of the craft, and established shipbuilders supply it since any of them could make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Asteroid Mining Robot: A self-directed machine that extracts metals and other resources from asteroids.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Asteroid Mining Robot

Catch That Rabbit, Isaac Asimov · 1944

A self-directed machine that extracts metals and other resources from asteroids.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Metal and other materials from space rocks would be an industry of its own and could change the cost of raw materials.

Who is paid. Factories and builders buy the output, and since mining methods are easy to copy the firms that already own ships and refineries collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Asteroid Nets: Nets launched on rockets to snare small asteroids and rock fragments.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Asteroid Nets

Asteroid Justice, V.E. Thiessen · 1947

Nets launched on rockets to snare small asteroids and rock fragments.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A net for catching small rocks is a tool within space mining, not the industry itself.

Who is paid. Mining firms buy it, and the makers of mining and space gear could all produce it, which is why it earns less than mining as a whole.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Moonquake-Proof Habitats: Lunar outposts engineered to ride out tremors in the Moon's crust.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Moonquake-Proof Habitats

Gentlemen, Be Seated, Robert Heinlein · 1948

Lunar outposts engineered to ride out tremors in the Moon's crust.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A place for many people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.

Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Water From Lunar Gypsum: Baking water out of lunar minerals, then splitting it for breathable oxygen.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Water From Lunar Gypsum

The Moon is Hell, John W. Campbell · 1950

Baking water out of lunar minerals, then splitting it for breathable oxygen.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Water and air made on the Moon would spare hauling them from Earth, lowering costs for everything based there.

Who is paid. Firms working on the Moon buy the water and air, and baking rock is a method any miner could copy, so the operators that already hold the sites and plant collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Airmakers: Machinery that extracts oxygen from a foreign world's native materials to make a breathable atmosphere.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Airmakers

The Big Rain, Poul Anderson · 1954

Machinery that extracts oxygen from a foreign world's native materials to make a breathable atmosphere.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Giving a whole world air and a climate people can live in would open new land for a large share of humanity.

Who is paid. Only a government could fund work on a whole world, and the large engineering firms that already hold such contracts would be paid to do it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Inflatable Lunar Resort: A blow-up building on the Moon where people living there can go to unwind.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Inflatable Lunar Resort

Solar Lottery, Philip K. Dick · 1955

A blow-up building on the Moon where people living there can go to unwind.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A place for Moon dwellers to unwind is a local leisure spot, a convenience.

Who is paid. The people living there pay to visit, and the building is easy to copy, so whoever already holds ground and supply lines on the Moon collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Trolling Tether Cable: A long line dangled from a passing craft to snag cargo and haul it off a planet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Trolling Tether Cable

Atom Drive, Charles Fontenay · 1956

A long line dangled from a passing craft to snag cargo and haul it off a planet.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Snagging cargo off a planet from a passing craft would be a new and cheaper way to lift goods to space.

Who is paid. Shippers pay to send cargo up, and once it was shown to work another line could be flown, so the builders and carriers already in the trade collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Starlight Sail (Light Sail): A huge reflective sheet pushed by light that carries a ship from one star system to another.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Starlight Sail (Light Sail)

The Lady Who Sailed The Soul, Cordwainer Smith · 1960

A huge reflective sheet pushed by light that carries a ship from one star system to another.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A sail pushed by light that carries a ship to another star would open other stars to those who go, a transport industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy the sail as their engine, and a thin reflecting sheet is something other makers could copy, so established ship builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Flitterboat: A small single-pilot craft for hauling freight through space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flitterboat

A Spaceship Named McGuire, Gordon Randall Garrett · 1961

A small single-pilot craft for hauling freight through space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A small craft for a lone pilot or a short job is a niche form of space transport.

Who is paid. Firms working in space buy it as working gear, and existing spacecraft builders could all make something so simple.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Light-Sail Ship: A vessel pushed through space by light on a giant reflective sail.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Light-Sail Ship

Think Blue, Count Two, Cordwainer Smith · 1962

A vessel pushed through space by light on a giant reflective sail.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A working ship that carries people and cargo between worlds is the base of a whole transport industry.

Who is paid. Carriers and other firms working in space buy ships, and since a second yard could build the same craft the established shipbuilders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Solar Yacht: A spacecraft driven by sunlight pressing on a large sail, raced for sport.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solar Yacht

Sunjammer, Arthur C. Clarke · 1963

A spacecraft driven by sunlight pressing on a large sail, raced for sport.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Unlike a working ship, this sail craft is raced for sport, a costly pastime for a few.

Who is paid. Private racers buy it, and makers of sails and small craft could all build it, so established builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Membrane Balloon Helmet: A bubble helmet made of a film that lets only chosen gases through.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Membrane Balloon Helmet

The Flight of the Horse, Larry Niven · 1969

A bubble helmet made of a film that lets only chosen gases through.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a detail of a suit, useful to the wearer but not a product by itself.

Who is paid. Space operators pay for it within the suit, and suit makers supply it because the design is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Nullboxing Bubble: A zero-gravity arena for a combat sport fought while floating.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nullboxing Bubble

Streetlethal, Steven Barnes · 1983

A zero-gravity arena for a combat sport fought while floating.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An arena for a floating combat sport is a venue for a niche pastime.

Who is paid. Sports promoters are assumed to pay for the arena and charge the crowd, and any habitat builder could make such a hall.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tether Space Station: An orbital outpost split into two halves joined by a very long cable.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tether Space Station

Tank Farm Dynamo, David Brin · 1983

An orbital outpost split into two halves joined by a very long cable.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An outpost in orbit for people to live and work in is a building industry of its own; the long cable is a design choice.

Who is paid. A station is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Freeside Orbital Resort: A luxury holiday destination circling the planet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Freeside Orbital Resort

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

A luxury holiday destination circling the planet.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Holidays in orbit would be a travel industry of its own.

Who is paid. Guests pay for their stay, and since another resort could be built the gain goes to the firms that already own the stations and the ships that reach them.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Low-Gravity Velodrome: A cycling track inside an orbiting holiday resort.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Low-Gravity Velodrome

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

A cycling track inside an orbiting holiday resort.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cycling track is one amusement inside a resort, a convenience.

Who is paid. Guests pay through the resort, and the track is easy to copy, so the resort owners collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Battleroom: A large weightless chamber where cadets practise combat tactics.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Battleroom

Ender's Game, Orson Scott Card · 1985

A large weightless chamber where cadets practise combat tactics.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A weightless hall for training cadets serves only a military school.

Who is paid. The armed forces pay, and the contractors that already build their training sites would supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Jet-Down: A small craft that descends from orbit to fly over and survey a world's surface.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Jet-Down

Prelude to Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1988

A small craft that descends from orbit to fly over and survey a world's surface.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A small craft for a lone pilot or a short job is a niche form of space transport.

Who is paid. Firms working in space buy it as working gear, and existing spacecraft builders could all make something so simple.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Lifezone: A sealed greenhouse module fixed to a spaceship to sustain a living ecosystem.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lifezone

Tides of Light, Gregory Benford · 1989

A sealed greenhouse module fixed to a spaceship to sustain a living ecosystem.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A living greenhouse keeps a crew fed and the air fresh, but it is a part of the craft, not an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and established shipbuilders supply it because others could copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robofish (Mitsubishi Robot Turbot): A robot swimmer that samples liquid seas on distant moons.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robofish (Mitsubishi Robot Turbot)

Slow Life, Michael Swanwick · 2002

A robot swimmer that samples liquid seas on distant moons.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A robot that samples the seas of distant moons gathers knowledge, which is valuable but which nobody buys as a product.

Who is paid. The findings cannot be charged for, so a government pays, and the builders that already hold science contracts supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Oxygen Fountain: A compact plant that produces breathable air from resources on another planet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Oxygen Fountain

War Dogs, Greg Bear · 2014

A compact plant that produces breathable air from resources on another planet.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Making breathable air from what another planet offers is essential to a camp there, but it is a piece of life support and not an industry of its own.

Who is paid. No user is named, so it is assumed that expedition firms buy it like other working gear, and established makers of life support could all build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Puff (Puff Balls): Cushioning material that slows soldiers landing on another planet from high speed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Puff (Puff Balls)

War Dogs, Greg Bear · 2014

Cushioning material that slows soldiers landing on another planet from high speed.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Cushioning for troops landing at speed serves only armed forces.

Who is paid. The armed forces pay, and the contractors that already supply their landing gear would make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Computing, AI and virtual worlds · 20
Illustration of Machine (Thinking Machine): A reasoning computer holds authority over an entire world, making its decisions and running its affairs.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Machine (Thinking Machine)

The Machine, John W. Campbell · 1935

A reasoning computer holds authority over an entire world, making its decisions and running its affairs.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that runs a whole society's affairs touches every person's food, work and safety.

Who is paid. I assume a machine that runs a whole society would be built as a public work, so a government pays, and the firms that already build large computing works for governments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Subjunctivisor: A viewer shows an imagined alternative outcome built from what the user believes and expects.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Subjunctivisor

The Worlds of If, Stanley G. Weinbaum · 1935

A viewer shows an imagined alternative outcome built from what the user believes and expects.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A viewer that shows what might have been, built from the user's own beliefs, is a curiosity and an entertainment.

Who is paid. Curious people pay for a look, and I assume that once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Iridium-Sponge Brain: A metal thinking organ that gives robots a humanlike mind.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Iridium-Sponge Brain

Adam Link's Vengeance, Eando Binder · 1940

A metal thinking organ that gives robots a humanlike mind.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine mind as able as a person could do most kinds of work, which changes how nearly everyone earns a living.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Three Laws of Robotics (Rules of Robotics): A short ranked code of conduct built into machines to keep humans safe and obeyed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Three Laws of Robotics (Rules of Robotics)

Runaround, Isaac Asimov · 1942

A short ranked code of conduct built into machines to keep humans safe and obeyed.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A rule that keeps robots from harming people is what lets them be trusted in homes and workplaces, which the robot trade depends on, and I judged it as a working part of the robot.

Who is paid. Robot makers pay to have it, every one of them must fit something like it, and it is sold inside robots, so the robot makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Machine Evolution: Machines that redesign and improve their own bodies and minds without human input.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Machine Evolution

Second Variety, Philip K. Dick · 1953

Machines that redesign and improve their own bodies and minds without human input.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Judged as a working technology and not as the danger the story shows, machines that improve themselves would speed every kind of mental work and change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms pay for the work done, and I assume whoever holds the best machine can use it to stay ahead of everyone copying the last one.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Worldcraft Bubble: A sealed miniature world simulated in exhaustive detail that its owner can watch and shape.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Worldcraft Bubble

The Trouble With Bubbles, Philip K. Dick · 1953

A sealed miniature world simulated in exhaustive detail that its owner can watch and shape.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tiny simulated world to watch and shape is a hobby.

Who is paid. Hobbyists buy it, and I assume that once one firm had made such a world others could too, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Central Computer: A single computer in charge of operating a whole city.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Central Computer

The City and the Stars, Arthur C. Clarke · 1956

A single computer in charge of operating a whole city.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Running a whole city's machinery by computer would change the cost of city services.

Who is paid. The city government pays, and once thinking machines exist the firms that already hold city supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of City Fathers: A group of computers that operate all the machinery of a city and advise its leaders.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

City Fathers

Cities in Flight, James Blish · 1957

A group of computers that operate all the machinery of a city and advise its leaders.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Running a whole city's machinery by computer would change the cost of city services.

Who is paid. The city government pays, and once thinking machines exist the firms that already hold city supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Laminated Mouse Brain Computer: A computer built from layers of living rodent brain cells.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Laminated Mouse Brain Computer

Think Blue, Count Two, Cordwainer Smith · 1962

A computer built from layers of living rodent brain cells.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A computer grown from living nerve cells that outdid ordinary chips would change the cost of computing for one industry after another.

Who is paid. Firms that need computing pay, and I assume others could learn to grow such tissue in time, so the firms that already sell computing to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ilse: The first thinking computer built to run a spacecraft.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ilse

Long Shot, Vernor Vinge · 1972

The first thinking computer built to run a spacecraft.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that truly thinks could do much of the mental work people do now, not only run one ship, which would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Big Noodle: A planet-wide artificial intelligence that handles all of humanity's information.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Big Noodle

The Divine Invasion, Philip K. Dick · 1981

A planet-wide artificial intelligence that handles all of humanity's information.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. One machine that holds and handles everything known would change how most people learn, decide and work.

Who is paid. I assume a single machine serving everyone would be built as a public work, so a government pays, and the firms that already build large computing works for governments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Big Computer: An all-knowing central computer that holds every answer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Big Computer

Millenium, John Varley · 1983

An all-knowing central computer that holds every answer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. One machine that holds and handles everything known would change how most people learn, decide and work.

Who is paid. I assume a single machine serving everyone would be built as a public work, so a government pays, and the firms that already build large computing works for governments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Biologics: A computer built from living organic parts in place of silicon.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Biologics

Blood Music, Greg Bear · 1984

A computer built from living organic parts in place of silicon.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A computer grown from living parts would be a new kind of computing plant, worth an industry if it beat what it replaced.

Who is paid. Firms that need computing pay, and I assume others could learn to grow such parts in time, so the firms that already sell computing to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Chirpsithra Supercomputer: Plans for an extraordinarily intelligent computer handed to humanity by an alien species.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chirpsithra Supercomputer

Niven's Laws, Larry Niven · 1984

Plans for an extraordinarily intelligent computer handed to humanity by an alien species.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that truly thinks could do much of the mental work people do now, which would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to use it, but the plans are handed to all of humanity, so anyone may build it and no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Quantum Logic Thinker (QL): A computer that reasons through problems using unconventional quantum logic.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Quantum Logic Thinker (QL)

Heads, Greg Bear · 1990

A computer that reasons through problems using unconventional quantum logic.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that truly reasons its way through problems, whatever logic it runs on, could do much of the mental work people do now, which would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Handwriter: An implant under the skin that lets a person write text into a computer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Handwriter

Steel Beach, John Varley · 1992

An implant under the skin that lets a person write text into a computer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A new way to give a computer its orders is a convenience and not a new capability.

Who is paid. People buy it as an add-on to machines they already own, assuming the implant is simple enough for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Smart Contact Lenses: Contact lenses that show computer images over normal vision.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Smart Contact Lenses

Fast Times At Fairmont High, Vernor Vinge · 2001

Contact lenses that show computer images over normal vision.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Unlike other worn computers, a private display in front of the eyes could replace most other screens, which is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and since rivals can copy the design, the firms that already own gadget factories, shops and well-known names collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Flexy (or Flexies): A bendable, almost organic computer that can be folded or rolled.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flexy (or Flexies)

Pushing Ice, Alastair Reynolds · 2005

A bendable, almost organic computer that can be folded or rolled.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Folding or bending is a convenience added to a pocket computer people would own anyway.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and the firms that already make and sell pocket computers add the feature and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Headspace: A simulated world with lifelike touch where people raise a virtual infant.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Headspace

Flood, Stephen Baxter · 2008

A simulated world with lifelike touch where people raise a virtual infant.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A simulated world with lifelike touch is an entertainment and training industry of its own, of which raising a pretend infant is one use.

Who is paid. People pay for it as they pay for games and films, and since the machinery can be copied the owners of the popular worlds and stories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Photomnemonic Tablet: A slate whose surface both captures and displays pictures.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Photomnemonic Tablet

Anathem, Neal Stephenson · 2008

A slate whose surface both captures and displays pictures.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A slate that both takes and shows pictures is a handy camera and album in one.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and it is assumed to be ordinary camera and screen work that many firms can do.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Communication, media and displays · 11
Illustration of Interplanetary Communications Center: A central relay network that routes messages among settlements throughout the solar system.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Interplanetary Communications Center

QRM - Interplanetary, George O. Smith · 1942

A central relay network that routes messages among settlements throughout the solar system.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Assuming the planets are settled as in the story, a message link among them carries all their trade and news, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Assuming firms and settlers pay by the message, nothing described stops a rival from building its own stations, so the carriers and fleet owners who already hold the home networks where every message starts and ends, and the ships to place and tend stations, collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Polyfrequency Neutralizer: A device that cancels projected three-dimensional images, making them vanish.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Polyfrequency Neutralizer

Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943

A device that cancels projected three-dimensional images, making them vanish.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A device that wipes out projected images is a niche tool against trickery.

Who is paid. I assumed police and armies want it, so a government pays its usual equipment suppliers.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Visual Ad: Advertising that pushes itself straight into a viewer's mind whether they want it or not.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Visual Ad

Sales Pitch, Philip K. Dick · 1954

Advertising that pushes itself straight into a viewer's mind whether they want it or not.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Advertising that reaches straight into a viewer's mind would be worth a great deal to every seller of goods, though the story's law forbids it.

Who is paid. Advertisers who ignore the ban pay, and once the trick is known any agency could use it and the law pursues whoever does, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Dimensino: An alien entertainment centre offering total sensory immersion.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dimensino

Time is the Simplest Thing, Clifford Simak · 1961

An alien entertainment centre offering total sensory immersion.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Entertainment that fills every sense would be a new industry beside cinema and games.

Who is paid. Assuming people pay at the door of a venue, others could build such centres once one existed, so the entertainment firms that own the stories and the sites collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Ego-Likeness

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A lifelike moving portrait that captures a person's tiny gestures.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lifelike moving portrait is a keepsake.

Who is paid. Families buy it, and anyone with the equipment could make such portraits, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Implanted Tranceiver: A body implant for two-way talk without carrying a handset.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Implanted Tranceiver

The Godmakers, Frank Herbert · 1972

A body implant for two-way talk without carrying a handset.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A phone inside the body that is never lost or left behind would be worth an industry, though surgery would put many people off.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, the device can be copied, and the firms that own the phone networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Phone-Grid Transex Network: A fictional networked intimacy service portrayed as addictive in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Phone-Grid Transex Network

Flow My Tears, The Policeman Said, Philip K. Dick · 1974

A fictional networked intimacy service portrayed as addictive in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A networked intimacy service that people cannot put down would draw spending on the scale of an industry.

Who is paid. Users pay; I assumed it stays legal and can be copied, so the firms that own the phone network it runs on collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Holo-Cube: A room-sized three-dimensional image display that viewers can step inside.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Holo-Cube

A Scanner Darkly, Philip K. Dick · 1977

A room-sized three-dimensional image display that viewers can step inside.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A room-sized picture with depth that you can step into would replace flat screens for home entertainment.

Who is paid. Assuming it is fitted in homes, households buy it, the design can be copied, and the existing screen makers, who own the factories and brands, collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Fieldstim: A device that conveys pictures by stimulating a wide patch of skin.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fieldstim

Freezone, John Shirley · 1985

A device that conveys pictures by stimulating a wide patch of skin.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Pictures felt through the skin would help people who cannot see and be a novelty for others.

Who is paid. Assuming people buy it for themselves, it needs no rare part and many firms could make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Phantoscope (phenomenoscope): An eye-worn or implanted screen that overlays computer imagery on vision.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Phantoscope (phenomenoscope)

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

An eye-worn or implanted screen that overlays computer imagery on vision.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Information laid over what you see would change many jobs and daily errands; I judged the promise, which is larger than what has been sold.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the glasses can be copied, so the firms that already hold the software and the information shown collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of EPR Phone: A telephone service secured by quantum physics so any interception of a call becomes detectable.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

EPR Phone

Mariposa, Greg Bear · 2009

A telephone service secured by quantum physics so any interception of a call becomes detectable.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Calls that reveal any eavesdropping matter greatly to a few callers with secrets and little to everyone else.

Who is paid. Firms and officials with secrets pay extra for it, the method comes from known physics that others could use, and the firms that own the phone networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Robotics and automation · 22
Illustration of Feeding Room: A nursery where machines feed and look after infants.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Feeding Room

Le Monde Tel Qu'il Sera (The World As It Shall Be), Emile Souvestre · 1846

A nursery where machines feed and look after infants.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that feed and mind infants would be worth an industry of its own in child care.

Who is paid. Nurseries, not families, are assumed to buy the machines here, and the established makers that families trust collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Helen O'Loy: A companion robot upgraded to show emotions and affection.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Helen O'Loy

Helen O'Loy, Lester del Rey · 1938

A companion robot upgraded to show emotions and affection.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Company for lonely people is worth an industry of its own, though it does not meet a basic need for most.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and as many could make such machines the firms with factories and well-liked brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robbie: A robot that looks after and plays with young children.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robbie

Robbie, Isaac Asimov · 1940

A robot that looks after and plays with young children.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Reliable care and play for young children at home would be worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Families buy it, and since they are assumed to trust only known names with their children the established makers with strong brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mechanical Bride: A lifelike robot made to look and act exactly like a real woman.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mechanical Bride

The Mechanical Bride, Fritz Leiber · 1954

A lifelike robot made to look and act exactly like a real woman.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A robot that looks and acts like a real woman is judged as a companion, worth an industry of its own though not a basic need for most.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and as many could make such machines the firms with factories and well-liked brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Micro-Android (Micro-Robot): An exceedingly small robot able to work at scales far below what the eye can see.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Micro-Android (Micro-Robot)

Dawn of the Demigods, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1954

An exceedingly small robot able to work at scales far below what the eye can see.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Robots that work far below what the eye can see would open fine work in making and mending things that no hand can do.

Who is paid. Firms buy them for their work, and as nothing says they cannot be copied the makers with precision factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robocop: A machine that serves as a law enforcement officer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robocop

Wanted in Surgery, Harlan Ellison · 1957

A machine that serves as a law enforcement officer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that does a police officer's work would change the cost of policing.

Who is paid. Governments pay, and the firms that already supply police and armies would build it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of The Machine (M): A self-directed machine that can change its own shape and function whenever it chooses.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

The Machine (M)

The Unreconstructed M, Philip K. Dick · 1957

A self-directed machine that can change its own shape and function whenever it chooses.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that can turn itself into whatever tool is wanted could stand in for many kinds of equipment, but the description promises a change of form and not thought or labour.

Who is paid. Firms are assumed to buy it as equipment, and since others could copy it once built the large machine makers with factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Brother: A humanlike machine brought home to grow up alongside a child as a sibling.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Brother

Brother Robot, Henry Slesar · 1958

A humanlike machine brought home to grow up alongside a child as a sibling.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A humanlike machine that grows up beside a child as a sibling is judged as a companion, worth an industry of its own though not a basic need.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and as many could make such machines the firms with factories and well-liked brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Earthworm: Swarms of tiny burrowing robots that tunnel through soil.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Earthworm

War With The Robots, Harry Harrison · 1962

Swarms of tiny burrowing robots that tunnel through soil.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Tiny robots that burrow through soil are given no job, so they are assumed to be for loosening and testing ground, a niche.

Who is paid. Farmers and survey firms are assumed to buy them, and many makers could build such burrowers.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Factory Crawler (or Harvester Crawler): A mobile plant that sifts desert sand to extract a valuable substance.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Factory Crawler (or Harvester Crawler)

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A mobile plant that sifts desert sand to extract a valuable substance.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A mobile plant that sifts a valuable substance from sand makes a whole mining trade possible.

Who is paid. Mining houses buy the plants, and heavy-equipment makers can copy them, though whoever holds the right to dig would keep far more than any plant maker.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Self-Assembling Robots: Robots that build themselves from parts and then power up.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Self-Assembling Robots

The Witches of Karres, James Schmitz · 1966

Robots that build themselves from parts and then power up.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Building itself from parts and starting up is a useful feature of a robot, not a product by itself; nothing says it makes copies.

Who is paid. Owners pay for it within the price of the robot, assumed here to be a working machine bought by firms, and any maker could include it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Self-Assembly: A robot that can rebuild itself after being broken into pieces.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Self-Assembly

Meccano, Hugo Correa · 1968

A robot that can rebuild itself after being broken into pieces.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Putting itself back together after being broken is a useful feature of a robot, not a product by itself.

Who is paid. Owners pay for it within the price of the robot, assumed here to be a working machine bought by firms, and any maker could include it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hangman: A remotely operated machine that can also act on its own.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hangman

My Name is Legion, Roger Zelazny · 1976

A remotely operated machine that can also act on its own.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine worked from afar that can also act alone is a tool for dangerous or distant jobs, a niche as described.

Who is paid. Firms buy it for their own work, and such machines and their controls could be copied by many makers.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Coal Mole: A robot that bores through an asteroid and turns its interior into usable feedstock.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Coal Mole

The Web Between the Worlds, Charles Sheffield · 1979

A robot that bores through an asteroid and turns its interior into usable feedstock.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Boring through an asteroid and turning it into feedstock with no crew would cut the cost of mining in space.

Who is paid. Mining and building firms buy them, and the heavy-equipment makers who already supply those firms can copy the idea and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Marvin the Robot: A gloomy humanoid robot produced by a satirical corporation's sales department.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Marvin the Robot

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams · 1979

A gloomy humanoid robot produced by a satirical corporation's sales department.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. The description gives a humanlike robot and a mood but no job, so it is assumed to be the general worker of the stories, able to do most kinds of human work.

Who is paid. Firms buy them as labour, and since many could build such bodies once shown how, the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Spider: A construction robot that spins out cable and crawls along it to build in orbit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spider

The Web Between the Worlds, Charles Sheffield · 1979

A construction robot that spins out cable and crawls along it to build in orbit.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A robot that spins cable and crawls along it to build in orbit would cut the cost of large structures in space, assuming such building is done.

Who is paid. Firms building in orbit buy it, and since others could copy it the makers that already supply construction and space equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Whale Waldo: A powered whale-shaped exosuit that copies and magnifies its wearer's movements.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Whale Waldo

Sundiver, David Brin · 1979

A powered whale-shaped exosuit that copies and magnifies its wearer's movements.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A powered suit in the shape of a whale that magnifies its wearer's movements serves a few divers and researchers.

Who is paid. Research groups and diving firms are assumed to buy it, and powered suits could be built by many makers once the idea is shown.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gynoid: A humanlike robot built in a female form.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gynoid

Divine Endurance, Gwyneth Jones · 1984

A humanlike robot built in a female form.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. The description gives only the human form, so it is assumed to be the artificial person of the stories, able to do most kinds of human work, which would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms buy them as labour, and since many could build such bodies once shown how, the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Pseudo-Insects (Synsects): Swarms of tiny autonomous machines deployed as armies in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pseudo-Insects (Synsects)

One Human Minute, Stanislaw Lem · 1984

Swarms of tiny autonomous machines deployed as armies in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Swarms of tiny machines that fight as armies would be worth a class of weapon of their own.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and the arms makers that already hold defence contracts would build them and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Dope Mule Robot: A hopping spherical robot that carries illicit cargo across terrain.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dope Mule Robot

Heavy Weather, Bruce Sterling · 1994

A hopping spherical robot that carries illicit cargo across terrain.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A hopping robot that carries small loads over rough ground is a niche carrier, whatever its cargo in the story.

Who is paid. Whoever needs goods moved across open country pays, and such a machine is simple enough for many to build.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Nubot: A humanoid robot built to take over an individual worker's role in full.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nubot

Spark, John Twelve Hawks · 2014

A humanoid robot built to take over an individual worker's role in full.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A humanlike robot that takes over a worker's role in full could do most kinds of human work, which would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms buy them as labour, and since many could build such bodies once shown how, the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Maritime Robots: Robots able to handle all upkeep and repair work aboard a ship.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Maritime Robots

Mare Nostrum, Bruce Sterling · 2022

Robots able to handle all upkeep and repair work aboard a ship.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Robots that do all upkeep and repair aboard a ship would cut crew costs across shipping.

Who is paid. Ship and plant operators buy them, and as the machines can be copied the established makers that already equip and service those operators collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Medicine, biotech and longevity · 27
Illustration of Robot Doctor: A machine that examines, diagnoses and treats patients in place of a human physician.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Doctor

Flamingo: A Drama of A.D. 1950, Clarence Edward Heller · 1930

A machine that examines, diagnoses and treats patients in place of a human physician.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that examines, diagnoses and treats would bring a doctor's care within reach of nearly everyone.

Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and clinics buy it; once built others could copy it, so established makers of medical equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot-Surgeon: An autonomous machine performs operations flawlessly, replacing human hands in the operating theatre.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot-Surgeon

Rex, Harl Vincent · 1934

An autonomous machine performs operations flawlessly, replacing human hands in the operating theatre.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Flawless operations done by machine would change the costs and reach of surgery.

Who is paid. Hospitals would buy it, and other firms could build such machines, so established makers of surgical equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sleep Surrogate: A medicine that fully restores the body and brain after missed sleep, as if one had slept.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sleep Surrogate

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

A medicine that fully restores the body and brain after missed sleep, as if one had slept.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Standing in fully for sleep would hand nearly every adult many more waking hours, changing how most people live and work.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and a new drug is protected from copying for a long while, so its maker keeps much of the gain.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Gravanol: A drug that helps the body withstand strong acceleration during spaceflight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gravanol

QRM - Interplanetary, George O. Smith · 1942

A drug that helps the body withstand strong acceleration during spaceflight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It serves only people who work in space or under unusual gravity, which is a niche.

Who is paid. I assumed employers and space carriers buy it for their crews; a new drug is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what little is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Plastissue: Man-made living tissue used to replace or repair bodies.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plastissue

Accidental Flight, W.F. Wallace · 1952

Man-made living tissue used to replace or repair bodies.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Man-made living tissue for repair would change the cost of surgery.

Who is paid. Hospitals pay, and established medical suppliers collect because tissue multiplies and a sample is enough to copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Alcoholic Reliever: A machine that frees its user from craving alcohol.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Alcoholic Reliever

Bad Medicine, Robert Sheckley · 1956

A machine that frees its user from craving alcohol.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Ending the craving for alcohol would lift a heavy burden from a great many families.

Who is paid. I assumed it is a home appliance people buy for themselves; other makers could copy the machine, so established appliance makers and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mechanotherapy: Treatment delivered by a machine that relieves or cures a person's dependence on drink.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mechanotherapy

Bad Medicine, Robert Sheckley · 1956

Treatment delivered by a machine that relieves or cures a person's dependence on drink.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Ending dependence on drink would serve a great many people and families.

Who is paid. Drinkers and their families pay, and makers of medical machines collect because the machine can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Phymech: A machine doctor that examines and treats patients.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Phymech

Wanted in Surgery, Harlan Ellison · 1957

A machine doctor that examines and treats patients.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine doctor would bring care to most people at lower cost.

Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and clinics buy it; once built others could copy it, so established makers of medical equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Alcodote: A drug that lets a person drink alcohol while staying sober.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Alcodote

Space Viking, H. Beam Piper · 1962

A drug that lets a person drink alcohol while staying sober.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Staying sober while drinking is a convenience for drinkers, not a need.

Who is paid. Drinkers would buy it for themselves, and a new drug is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Medical Mech: A robot that keeps injured people alive in emergencies.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Medical Mech

Warrior, Gordon R. Dickson · 1965

A robot that keeps injured people alive in emergencies.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A robot that keeps the injured alive would change emergency care.

Who is paid. Ambulance services and hospitals pay, and makers of medical equipment collect since the robot can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Cellphone Tranquilizing Spray: A phone that automatically dispenses a mild calming drug to its owner.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cellphone Tranquilizing Spray

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

A phone that automatically dispenses a mild calming drug to its owner.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A calming puff from a phone is a convenience added to something people already carry.

Who is paid. People would buy it as part of a phone, and any phone maker could add it, so established phone makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Decorative Implant: Under-skin ornaments the wearer can control by thought.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Decorative Implant

Babel-17, Samuel R. Delany · 1966

Under-skin ornaments the wearer can control by thought.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Ornaments under the skin are fashion.

Who is paid. Wearers would buy them, and many workshops could make and fit them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ro-Womb: An enclosing chamber that wraps a patient during mind-linked therapy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ro-Womb

The Dream Master (He Who Shapes), Roger Zelazny · 1966

An enclosing chamber that wraps a patient during mind-linked therapy.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A chamber for one kind of therapy serves a narrow group of patients.

Who is paid. I assumed clinics buy it; the chamber could be copied, so established makers of clinic equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Dolphin's Hands: Artificial manipulators that let dolphins handle objects.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dolphin's Hands

Handicap, Larry Niven · 1967

Artificial manipulators that let dolphins handle objects.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Hands for dolphins serve a very small group of users.

Who is paid. I assumed firms and researchers who work with dolphins buy them; simple gripping tools can be made by many, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Crosswell Tape Worm: An engineered gut organism that lets people eat freely without putting on weight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Crosswell Tape Worm

Super-Toys Last All Summer Long, Brian Aldiss · 1969

An engineered gut organism that lets people eat freely without putting on weight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Eating freely without gaining weight is something a great many people would pay for.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and I assumed it is sold as a medicine and protected from copying for a while as new medicines are, so its maker keeps much of the gain.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Selektrogel: A shop-bought gel that lets parents choose a baby's sex at conception.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Selektrogel

And All The Stars A Stage, James Blish · 1971

A shop-bought gel that lets parents choose a baby's sex at conception.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Choosing a baby's sex at home is something a great many parents would pay for.

Who is paid. Parents buy it in shops, and I assumed it is protected like a new medicine, so its maker keeps what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Uniflesh: Synthetic tissue that replaces skin and the soft layers beneath it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Uniflesh

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

Synthetic tissue that replaces skin and the soft layers beneath it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Man-made skin helps people with burns and bad wounds, which is an important but narrow part of medicine.

Who is paid. Hospitals and clinics would buy it, and the firms that already supply wound dressings could all make it, so they collect a modest margin.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Gnome: Someone so dependent on medical support that their body is fused with a powered chair.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gnome

Millenium, John Varley · 1983

Someone so dependent on medical support that their body is fused with a powered chair.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the powered chair that keeps a very frail body alive, which serves a small group of people.

Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and several equipment makers could build such a chair, so established makers of medical equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Revitalizer Console.: An automated medical station that rebalances body chemistry and replenishes fluids.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Revitalizer Console.

Millenium, John Varley · 1983

An automated medical station that rebalances body chemistry and replenishes fluids.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Restoring fluids and body chemistry by machine saves ward staff some routine work, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and clinics buy it; such a station is easy to copy, so established makers of hospital equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Joeboy (Muscle Grafts): Surgery that grafts extra muscle onto a person's body.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Joeboy (Muscle Grafts)

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

Surgery that grafts extra muscle onto a person's body.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Extra muscle by surgery appeals to a few people who want strength for work or show.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and other surgeons could learn it, so established clinics collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Medically Applicable Biochip: A living-tissue computer designed to work inside the body for treatment.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Medically Applicable Biochip

Blood Music, Greg Bear · 1984

A living-tissue computer designed to work inside the body for treatment.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A living computer that treats from inside the body would be worth an industry in medicine.

Who is paid. Hospitals pay, and established drug and device firms collect because living tissue multiplies and a sample is enough to copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of CCD Eyes: Electronic replacement eyes built on camera sensors that offer a range of functions.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

CCD Eyes

Stone Lives, Paul Di Filippo · 1985

Electronic replacement eyes built on camera sensors that offer a range of functions.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Giving sight back to blind people is worth an industry of its own, though most people would never need it.

Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and once the design was known other device makers could copy it, so established implant makers and eye clinics collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mnemotropin: A medicine that helps the brain lay down lasting memories.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mnemotropin

Stone Lives, Paul Di Filippo · 1985

A medicine that helps the brain lay down lasting memories.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A medicine for lasting memory would be wanted by students, workers and the old.

Who is paid. People pay for the medicine, and the developer keeps the gain because a new medicine is protected from copying.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Freedom Machine: A contraceptive made with molecular-scale machinery.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Freedom Machine

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

A contraceptive made with molecular-scale machinery.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Reliable birth control is wanted by a large share of adults, though other methods already exist.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and other makers could copy it, so established drug firms with the shops and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Eyecaps: Lenses fitted over the eyes that let divers see in the deep sea.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Eyecaps

Starfish, Peter Watts · 1999

Lenses fitted over the eyes that let divers see in the deep sea.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Seeing in the deep sea serves a few divers.

Who is paid. Firms that employ divers would buy them, and I assumed other lens makers could copy them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Humeld: A person whose body has been extensively modified with engineered or artificial parts.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Humeld

The Human Blend, Alan Dean Foster · 2010

A person whose body has been extensively modified with engineered or artificial parts.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the fitting of engineered and artificial parts to the body, which taken together covers replacement eyes, limbs and organs and is an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and other firms could copy the parts, so established implant makers and the hospitals that fit them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Flesh Putty: A moldable tissue substitute pressed into wounds to fill damaged flesh.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flesh Putty

Titanium Noir, Nick Harkaway · 2023

A moldable tissue substitute pressed into wounds to fill damaged flesh.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Man-made skin helps people with burns and bad wounds, which is an important but narrow part of medicine.

Who is paid. Hospitals and clinics would buy it, and the firms that already supply wound dressings could all make it, so they collect a modest margin.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Mind and neurotechnology · 23
Illustration of Neuronic Control Apparatus: An outside unit that talks to a brain implant to see through and command its host.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Neuronic Control Apparatus

Masson's Secret, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1939

An outside unit that talks to a brain implant to see through and command its host.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.

Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Neuronic Receptor-Transmitter: A brain implant that broadcasts what the host sees and hears and lets someone else steer the body.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Neuronic Receptor-Transmitter

Masson's Secret, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1939

A brain implant that broadcasts what the host sees and hears and lets someone else steer the body.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.

Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Retinal Vid-Screen: A miniature screen placed surgically inside the eye so images appear straight in the wearer's sight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Retinal Vid-Screen

Sales Pitch, Philip K. Dick · 1954

A miniature screen placed surgically inside the eye so images appear straight in the wearer's sight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A screen in the eye itself is the same promise as other eye displays, a personal screen always in view, which is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. People pay to have it fitted, and the firms that already make displays and the clinics that fit implants collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Dental Switchboard: A control built into the teeth and linked to the nerves, letting the user switch bodily implants on and off.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dental Switchboard

The Stars My Destination, Alfred Bester · 1956

A control built into the teeth and linked to the nerves, letting the user switch bodily implants on and off.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A switch in the teeth is a handy control for implants a person already has.

Who is paid. Those with implants would pay for it, and a switch is simple for anyone to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Perky Pat Layout: A miniature doll world that users mentally inhabit as an escape.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Perky Pat Layout

The Days of Perky Pat, Philip K. Dick · 1963

A miniature doll world that users mentally inhabit as an escape.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. I assume it is a toy set whose escape happens in the players' own heads, which makes it a pastime.

Who is paid. Players would buy the dolls and fittings themselves, and since any workshop could make them the toy sellers with known names and shops would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sleep-Inducer: An electronic device that puts a person to sleep on command.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sleep-Inducer

Sunjammer, Arthur C. Clarke · 1963

An electronic device that puts a person to sleep on command.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Sleep on command would be worth an industry of its own to the many people who sleep badly.

Who is paid. People who sleep badly would buy it for themselves, and the gear is simple enough for many makers to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sapho Juice: A drink that boosts the mental performance of human calculators.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sapho Juice

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A drink that boosts the mental performance of human calculators.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A drink that sharpens thinking would be wanted by everyone whose work is mental.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves as they buy any stimulant, and many makers could brew it once the recipe was known, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Fornixation: Electric stimulation of the brain's pleasure circuits for recreation.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fornixation

Riders of the Purple Wage, Philip Jose Farmer · 1967

Electric stimulation of the brain's pleasure circuits for recreation.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Pleasure on demand from a current in the brain would draw as many buyers as any vice, harmful as the story shows it to be.

Who is paid. Users would pay for it themselves, and a wire and a small current are simple to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Artificial Telepathy: Machines that decode a person's thoughts into spoken words others can receive.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Artificial Telepathy

We All Died At Breakaway Station, Richard Meredith · 1969

Machines that decode a person's thoughts into spoken words others can receive.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Passing thoughts to others by machine is a new way to talk, and speech and telephones already do the job for nearly everyone.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would buy it for themselves, and once one maker could decode thought others could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Droud: A fictional adapter for a brain pleasure implant, portrayed as a tool of addiction.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Droud

Death by Ecstasy, Larry Niven · 1969

A fictional adapter for a brain pleasure implant, portrayed as a tool of addiction.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. This is the plug-in part of the pleasure implant, and I judged it with the implant: pleasure on demand would draw as many buyers as any vice, harmful as the story shows it to be.

Who is paid. Users would pay for it themselves, and a wire and a small current are simple to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ecstasy Plug: A fictional brain implant for direct pleasure stimulation, portrayed as a route to addiction.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ecstasy Plug

Death by Ecstasy, Larry Niven · 1969

A fictional brain implant for direct pleasure stimulation, portrayed as a route to addiction.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Pleasure on demand from a current in the brain would draw as many buyers as any vice, harmful as the story shows it to be.

Who is paid. Users would pay for it themselves, and a wire and a small current are simple to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Chemical Orders: Compounds released into the air or body that act as signals steering what people do.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chemical Orders

Hellstrom's Hive, Frank Herbert · 1972

Compounds released into the air or body that act as signals steering what people do.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.

Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of P-Terminal Implant: A brain implant with its own power and controls that stimulates reward regions.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

P-Terminal Implant

The Terminal Man, Michael Crichton · 1972

A brain implant with its own power and controls that stimulates reward regions.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Direct stimulation of the reward regions would draw a large and steady demand, as strong drugs do.

Who is paid. Users would buy it for themselves, legal or not, and it is simple enough that many makers could supply it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Jumble-Box: A device in the story that scrambles a person's senses.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Jumble-Box

Changeling, Roger Zelazny · 1980

A device in the story that scrambles a person's senses.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The story says only that it scrambles a person's senses; I assumed a tool for subduing someone, which is a narrow use.

Who is paid. I assumed a government pays, and the firms that already supply prisons and security services could copy it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Communications Implant: A surgically placed device connecting a person's mind straight to computer networks.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Communications Implant

Oath of Fealty, Jerry Pournelle (w/L. Niven · 1981

A surgically placed device connecting a person's mind straight to computer networks.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A computer link inside the head would do what pocket devices do now but faster and always on, worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay for the implant and the service, and the firms that already make devices and run networks could copy it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Dictatel: A machine that writes down words the user merely thinks.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dictatel

God Emperor of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1981

A machine that writes down words the user merely thinks.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Writing by thought is a convenience, since keyboards and speech already do the job.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would get it inside gadgets they buy, and once it works it is easy to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Optic Television: An eye that shows distant broadcasts alongside the scene in front of it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Optic Television

Twenty Evocations, Bruce Sterling · 1984

An eye that shows distant broadcasts alongside the scene in front of it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A screen in the eye itself is the same promise as other eye displays, a personal screen always in view, which is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. People pay to have it fitted, and the firms that already make displays and the clinics that fit implants collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Twist-Box: A recreational gadget that jumbles the senses for an altered experience.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Twist-Box

Wetware, Rudy Rucker · 1988

A recreational gadget that jumbles the senses for an altered experience.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A gadget that gives an altered state for fun would draw the kind of steady demand that drugs do.

Who is paid. Users would buy it for themselves, legal or not, and it is simple enough that many makers could supply it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Psypyx: A device that captures what someone perceives and thinks so it can be stored and replayed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Psypyx

Earth Made of Glass, John Barnes · 1998

A device that captures what someone perceives and thinks so it can be stored and replayed.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Capturing all a person perceives and thinks for keeping answers the basic wish not to be lost at death.

Who is paid. I assume the capture is full enough to stand as a copy of the person, as the story intends. People would pay whatever they could to keep a copy of themselves, and since the method could be copied the firms that already hold the stores, bodies and clinics would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mind-Reading with MRI: Brain scans analysed by software to infer what a person is thinking.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mind-Reading with MRI

Daemon, Daniel Suarez · 2009

Brain scans analysed by software to infer what a person is thinking.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Working out what a person is thinking from a scan would change how crimes are solved and secrets are kept, whether or not the person scanned agrees.

Who is paid. The scan is run and read by someone other than the person scanned, so I assumed police, courts and spy services are the main buyers, and since the software could be copied the firms that already supply them would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Necap: A fictional device that damages a person's brain, used as a threat in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Necap

The Human Blend, Alan Dean Foster · 2010

A fictional device that damages a person's brain, used as a threat in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.

Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Eel Operator: A person altered through surgery so they can pilot an underwater robot directly.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Eel Operator

Re:Set, Susan Beetlestone · 2012

A person altered through surgery so they can pilot an underwater robot directly.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. This names a person, but the surgery behind it, wiring a pilot to an undersea machine, is a better set of controls where hand controls already do the job.

Who is paid. Firms that run the machines would buy it, and once one maker had the link others could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Bio-Implant (Compensator Chip): A brain implant that supports an autistic child in daily functioning and learning.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bio-Implant (Compensator Chip)

Hella, David Gerrold · 2020

A brain implant that supports an autistic child in daily functioning and learning.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Helping autistic children manage daily life and learning would be worth a great deal to many families.

Who is paid. Families or their insurers would pay, and the makers of medical implants who already hold hospital trust could copy it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Transport and mobility · 12
Illustration of Spherical Tires: Ball-shaped wheels that let a vehicle roll in any direction instead of only forward and back.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spherical Tires

The Death's Head Meteor, Neil R. Jones · 1930

Ball-shaped wheels that let a vehicle roll in any direction instead of only forward and back.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Wheels that roll any way make parking and turning easier, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. Owners pay for them through the price of the vehicle, and the tyre and vehicle makers that already have factories and dealers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Rocket Liner: A rocket that carries passengers between cities on Earth by arcing up to the edge of space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rocket Liner

Exiles of the Moon, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931

A rocket that carries passengers between cities on Earth by arcing up to the edge of space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Crossing the world in a short arc through the edge of space would be an industry of its own beside the airlines.

Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the rocket service buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Pneumatic-Tube Zone: The part of a city where every home is linked by its own pneumatic pipe for sending goods.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pneumatic-Tube Zone

Mechanocracy, Miles J. Breuer · 1932

The part of a city where every home is linked by its own pneumatic pipe for sending goods.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A pipe to every home that delivers goods would take over much of the work of shops and delivery vans in a city.

Who is paid. I assume the city pays for the pipes as it pays for water mains, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Rolling Road: Bands of moving pavement at graded speeds that carry crowds across long distances.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rolling Road

The Roads Must Roll, Robert Heinlein · 1940

Bands of moving pavement at graded speeds that carry crowds across long distances.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Moving pavements that carry crowds over long distances would replace trains and roads on their routes, which would change the cost of travel there.

Who is paid. Governments pay for a public way of this size, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Controlway: A highway that drives every car on it, taking over steering and speed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Controlway

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

A highway that drives every car on it, taking over steering and speed.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A road that does the driving would give every car on it the gains of driverless travel, but only where such roads are built.

Who is paid. Governments pay for roads, and the control gear is not hard to copy, so the road builders and signalling suppliers that already hold public works contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Magnetic Grapple-Beams: Close-range magnetic beams that steer airborne cars and set them neatly into parking spots.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magnetic Grapple-Beams

Solar Lottery, Philip K. Dick · 1955

Close-range magnetic beams that steer airborne cars and set them neatly into parking spots.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Setting a flying car neatly into its space is a convenience for drivers.

Who is paid. I assume the owners of parking places fit the beams, and the firms that already equip such places collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Parastatics: A protective field that keeps vehicle occupants from being hurt in collisions.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Parastatics

Return from the Stars, Stanislaw Lem · 1961

A protective field that keeps vehicle occupants from being hurt in collisions.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A field that keeps everyone in a vehicle unhurt in any collision does far more than the cushions and bags beside it, which only soften a crash, and ending injury on the roads would change the costs of motoring, insurance and emergency care.

Who is paid. Owners pay for it through the price of the vehicle, and I assume that once the field is shown to work other firms could build it, so the established vehicle makers fit it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ornithopter: An aircraft that flies by flapping its wings like a bird.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ornithopter

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

An aircraft that flies by flapping its wings like a bird.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Flapping wings give an aircraft more agile flight, but it does the work aircraft and rotor craft already do.

Who is paid. Airlines and other operators pay for it through the aircraft, and the established aircraft builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Thopter: Any aircraft that flies by beating its wings.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Thopter

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

Any aircraft that flies by beating its wings.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Flapping wings give an aircraft more agile flight, but it does the work aircraft and rotor craft already do.

Who is paid. Airlines and other operators pay for it through the aircraft, and the established aircraft builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of High Kavalaan Aircar: An armed flying utility car used by a warrior culture in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

High Kavalaan Aircar

Dying of the Light, George RR Martin · 1977

An armed flying utility car used by a warrior culture in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A private vehicle that flies its owner over the roads would be an industry of its own, though it mostly replaces trips people already make by car.

Who is paid. I assume the warriors buy their own craft as others buy a car, and the weapons do not make it harder to copy, so the vehicle makers that already have factories and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Speedcap: A passenger capsule that travels on a fast suborbital arc between distant points.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Speedcap

Millenium, John Varley · 1983

A passenger capsule that travels on a fast suborbital arc between distant points.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Crossing the world in a short arc above the air would be an industry of its own beside the airlines.

Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the rocket service buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Magnus-Effect Ambulance: A medical rescue aircraft kept aloft by spinning cylinders.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magnus-Effect Ambulance

Earth, David Brin · 1990

A medical rescue aircraft kept aloft by spinning cylinders.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A rescue aircraft held up by spinning cylinders is another way to do what rescue aircraft already do.

Who is paid. Hospitals and rescue services buy it, and the established aircraft builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Energy and power · 10
Illustration of Power Planet: An orbiting station that generates electricity and delivers it down to consumers on Earth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Power Planet

The Power Planet, Murray Leinster · 1931

An orbiting station that generates electricity and delivers it down to consumers on Earth.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Electricity made in orbit and sent down day and night would change what power costs on the ground.

Who is paid. Power companies buy the output, and the firms that already own rockets and the ground grid collect, assuming the collectors themselves can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Electric-Space-Strain Projector: A projector beams electrical energy through open space to distant receivers with no connecting cables.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electric-Space-Strain Projector

The Mightiest Machine, John W. Campbell · 1934

A projector beams electrical energy through open space to distant receivers with no connecting cables.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Sending power through open space with no cables would change what it costs to deliver electricity.

Who is paid. Firms buy power for their machines, and since the trick is copyable the companies that already own power stations and the delivery network collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Solar Station: Satellites collect sunlight in orbit and transmit the power to receivers on a planet's surface.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solar Station

Reason, Isaac Asimov · 1941

Satellites collect sunlight in orbit and transmit the power to receivers on a planet's surface.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Sunlight collected in orbit and sent down day and night would change what power costs on the ground.

Who is paid. Power companies buy the output, and the firms that already own rockets and the ground grid collect, assuming the collectors themselves can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Energy Converter: A giant plant on a hot planet's dayside turning heat into power and sending it across space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Energy Converter

Runaround, Isaac Asimov · 1942

A giant plant on a hot planet's dayside turning heat into power and sending it across space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Power sent across space from a hot world would supply whole settlements that have no other source.

Who is paid. Only governments could fund a work this size for whole settlements, and whoever builds the one station controls a supply nobody else can match.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Radiant Power Receptor (DeKalbs): A receiver that captures energy beamed wirelessly from a distant station and turns it into usable power.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Radiant Power Receptor (DeKalbs)

Waldo, Robert Heinlein · 1942

A receiver that captures energy beamed wirelessly from a distant station and turns it into usable power.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Receivers that take power sent through the air would change what it costs to deliver electricity.

Who is paid. Firms buy power for their machines, and since the trick is copyable the companies that already own power stations and the delivery network collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Fusion Power: Generating electricity by joining light atomic nuclei together.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fusion Power

The Judas Valley, Gerald Vance · 1956

Generating electricity by joining light atomic nuclei together.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Electricity from joining light atoms would change what power costs, with fuel that is easy to find.

Who is paid. Power companies buy the plants, and they are so hard to build that the first firm to make one work can hold off copiers for a long time.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Chlorophane: A synthetic light-harvesting pigment that captures sunlight far better than natural plant pigment.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chlorophane

The Planet Strappers, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1961

A synthetic light-harvesting pigment that captures sunlight far better than natural plant pigment.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A pigment that catches sunlight far better than plants would cut what solar power and grown fuel cost.

Who is paid. Panel makers and growers buy it, and the inventor of a new material can keep the recipe protected for a time.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hyper-Developed Mulies: Genetically improved draught animals tuned to turn fodder into work as efficiently as possible.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hyper-Developed Mulies

The Calorie Man, Paolo Bacigalupi · 2005

Genetically improved draught animals tuned to turn fodder into work as efficiently as possible.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Where engines and fuel exist a better working animal is a niche, though in the story's fuel-starved world it would matter far more.

Who is paid. Farms and hauliers buy the animals, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the stock breeders and dealers that already supply working animals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Kink-Spring: A wound mechanical coil that holds energy and releases it with almost no losses.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Kink-Spring

The Calorie Man, Paolo Bacigalupi · 2005

A wound mechanical coil that holds energy and releases it with almost no losses.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A spring that stores energy with almost no loss would change what it costs to store and carry power.

Who is paid. Vehicle and machine makers buy it, and since storage designs tend to be copied the firms that already own the big factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Megadont: A genetically redesigned giant elephant-like beast that turns plant feed into muscle power for machinery.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Megadont

The Calorie Man, Paolo Bacigalupi · 2005

A genetically redesigned giant elephant-like beast that turns plant feed into muscle power for machinery.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Where engines and fuel exist a better working animal is a niche, though in the story's fuel-starved world it would matter far more.

Who is paid. Workshops and mills buy the beasts, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the stock breeders and dealers that already supply working animals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Materials, manufacturing and construction · 27
Illustration of Ultron Wire: An extremely thin, very strong wire so fine it cannot be seen.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ultron Wire

Armageddon: 2419 A.D., Philip Frances Nowlan · 1928

An extremely thin, very strong wire so fine it cannot be seen.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A very thin, very strong wire would change the cost of cables and structures; being too fine to see does not alter that.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Neo-Crystal: A clear glazing material for windows that cannot be shattered.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Neo-Crystal

Master of the Asteroid, Clark Ashton Smith · 1932

A clear glazing material for windows that cannot be shattered.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Window glazing that cannot shatter would change the glass trade for buildings and vehicles.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and being unbreakable does not stop a second maker, so the big glass firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Permalloy: An alloy hull covering that guards spacecraft against the dangers beyond the atmosphere.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Permalloy

Fugitives From Earth, Nelson S. Bond · 1939

An alloy hull covering that guards spacecraft against the dangers beyond the atmosphere.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A hull covering against the dangers of space is one part of a spacecraft, like the exhaust shield in the first batch.

Who is paid. Spacecraft builders buy it, assuming space travel is a modest trade, and an alloy recipe gets copied, so established metal makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Vivo-Gel: A jelly-like substance that is partly alive.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vivo-Gel

Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949

A jelly-like substance that is partly alive.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A partly living jelly has no use named, so I assumed a minor one such as padding or dressing.

Who is paid. Firms might buy it for such uses, and a living material can be grown by many, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Suit-Shield Fabric: A protective mesh cloth that shields its wearer from energy blasts in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Suit-Shield Fabric

The Golden Man, Philip K. Dick · 1954

A protective mesh cloth that shields its wearer from energy blasts in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Cloth that shields its wearer from energy blasts is protective kit for fighters, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Armies and police pay, assuming they are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold armour contracts supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Stellene: A strong see-through material for building domes or even entire spacecraft.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stellene

The Planet Strappers, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1961

A strong see-through material for building domes or even entire spacecraft.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A strong see-through material fit for domes and whole spacecraft would change how windows, vehicles and buildings are made.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Antithermal Shield: A protective material shielding people from extreme planetary heat.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Antithermal Shield

The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A protective material shielding people from extreme planetary heat.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Protection from extreme heat matters to the few who must work in such places; I assumed it is gear for those workers and not something everyone on a hot world must own.

Who is paid. Employers of people in hot places buy it, and makers of safety gear who already supply them can copy and sell it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Fanmetal: A strong metal used in structures that unfold by fanning out.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fanmetal

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A strong metal used in structures that unfold by fanning out.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A strong metal for structures that fold and unfold would cut the cost of shelters and vehicles that must travel light.

Who is paid. Vehicle and building firms buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established metal makers with furnaces and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Plasteel: A reinforced steel far tougher than the ordinary kind.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plasteel

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A reinforced steel far tougher than the ordinary kind.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A steel far tougher than the ordinary kind would change the cost of structures, vehicles and machines.

Who is paid. Builders and manufacturers buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established steel makers with furnaces and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Flexible Armor Suit: A flexible pressure suit that stiffens into armour when struck.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flexible Armor Suit

Neutron Star, Larry Niven · 1966

A flexible pressure suit that stiffens into armour when struck.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A suit that hardens when struck protects those who face blows or debris, which is a niche.

Who is paid. I assumed armies, police and space crews are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold their equipment contracts would make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sinclair Molecule Chain: An ultra-thin single-strand fibre prized for extraordinary tensile strength.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sinclair Molecule Chain

A Gift From Earth, Larry Niven · 1968

An ultra-thin single-strand fibre prized for extraordinary tensile strength.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A thread of extraordinary pulling strength would change the cost of cables, bridges and lifting things to space.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Superconductor of Heat: A light metal that soaks up heat without its temperature rising.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Superconductor of Heat

The Mote in God's Eye, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1974

A light metal that soaks up heat without its temperature rising.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A light metal that soaks up heat without warming would change the cooling of engines, machines and electronics.

Who is paid. Manufacturers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Chameleon Cloth: Fabric that shifts its colour and pattern to blend into the background.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chameleon Cloth

Dying of the Light, George RR Martin · 1977

Fabric that shifts its colour and pattern to blend into the background.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Cloth that blends into the background helps soldiers and hunters hide but still leaves them visible up close, so it is a niche.

Who is paid. Armies are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold uniform and equipment contracts would make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Spinnerettes: A reel device that pays out and rewinds an ultra-fine filament.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spinnerettes

The Fountains of Paradise, Arthur C. Clarke · 1978

A reel device that pays out and rewinds an ultra-fine filament.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A reel for a very fine thread is a tool that goes with the thread, not an industry.

Who is paid. Users of the thread buy it, and any toolmaker can build a reel, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Gundarium: An exceptionally tough composite used to armour giant piloted machines.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gundarium

Mobile Suit Gundam, Yoshiyuki Tomino · 1979

An exceptionally tough composite used to armour giant piloted machines.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A far tougher armour for war machines would change what an army's machines can survive.

Who is paid. Unlike the general-purpose alloys, this is armour, so armies pay and the firms that already hold weapons contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Skinsuit

Millenium, John Varley · 1983

A garment worn over the whole body that acts as a second, synthetic skin.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A whole-body second skin is special clothing for a few uses.

Who is paid. People buy it to wear, I assume, and the garment can be copied, so clothing firms with brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Biological Circuit Fabrication: Growing electronic circuitry through living biological processes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Biological Circuit Fabrication

The Official Handbook of the Marvel Universe, Author Unknown · 1984

Growing electronic circuitry through living biological processes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Growing circuits in place of building them in costly plants would change the cost of electronics.

Who is paid. Device makers buy the circuits, and once the method spreads the electronics firms with designs and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Shiftsuit: Gear that alters its look to match its surroundings and hide the wearer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Shiftsuit

Matadora, Steve Perry · 1986

Gear that alters its look to match its surroundings and hide the wearer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Gear that blends into its surroundings helps soldiers and hunters, and it only blends in without making the wearer vanish.

Who is paid. Armies pay, assuming they are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold military supply contracts make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Flickercladding: A robot skin that can soak up light or glow as required.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flickercladding

Wetware, Rudy Rucker · 1988

A robot skin that can soak up light or glow as required.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A skin that soaks up light or glows gives machines power and display, which is a feature and not an industry.

Who is paid. Robot makers buy it, and once understood many materials firms could make such a skin.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Lunar Concrete: Building material made chiefly from regolith scooped off the Moon.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lunar Concrete

Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988

Building material made chiefly from regolith scooped off the Moon.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Concrete from Moon soil matters only to those building on the Moon, which is a niche.

Who is paid. I assumed space agencies pay for most Moon building, and their usual contractors can all mix it from soil lying free.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Monomol Mesh Armor: Flexible protective mesh for body areas that must bend, such as knees and elbows.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Monomol Mesh Armor

Queen of Angels, Greg Bear · 1990

Flexible protective mesh for body areas that must bend, such as knees and elbows.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Flexible armour for joints is a useful part of protective kit, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Armies and police pay, assuming they are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold armour contracts supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sonomagnetic Fabric: A textile that harvests energy from surrounding sound.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sonomagnetic Fabric

Earth, David Brin · 1990

A textile that harvests energy from surrounding sound.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Cloth that gathers power from surrounding sound would keep small worn devices running without a battery, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. Makers of clothing and gadgets buy it, and many textile firms could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Smart Rope: A multi-strand cable that bends and moves on command from a control glove.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Smart Rope

Heavy Weather, Bruce Sterling · 1994

A multi-strand cable that bends and moves on command from a control glove.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cable that moves on command is a clever tool for climbers, riggers and rescue crews.

Who is paid. Working crews buy it, and many equipment firms could build one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Toner: Debris from worn-out molecular machines that accumulates as dust.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Toner

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

Debris from worn-out molecular machines that accumulates as dust.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is dust left by worn-out tiny machines, a waste and not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold; it is debris that gathers by itself.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Graffiti-Eating Finish: A self-cleaning wall coating that breaks down paint sprayed onto it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Graffiti-Eating Finish

All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999

A self-cleaning wall coating that breaks down paint sprayed onto it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Walls that clean off sprayed paint save owners a recurring nuisance.

Who is paid. Building owners and cities buy it, and a coating can be studied and matched by many paint firms.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Silksteel: A fibre that is both extremely strong under tension and very flexible.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Silksteel

Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999

A fibre that is both extremely strong under tension and very flexible.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A fibre both very strong and very flexible would change the cost of cables, aircraft and structures.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Illuminum: A self-luminous metal that gives off its own glow.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Illuminum

Altered Carbon, Richard Morgan · 2003

A self-luminous metal that gives off its own glow.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A metal that glows by itself is a decorative and lighting convenience.

Who is paid. Builders and designers buy it, and once understood many metal firms could make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Weapons and warfare · 19
Illustration of Death-Ray: A narrow beam of energy that burns living tissue away from the skeleton.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Death-Ray

The World Masters, George Griffith · 1903

A narrow beam of energy that burns living tissue away from the skeleton.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Assuming a soldier carries it, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Space-Armor: Protective suit plating worn by fighters in space to stop energy beams and blasts.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space-Armor

Revolt of the Star Men, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1932

Protective suit plating worn by fighters in space to stop energy beams and blasts.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Plating that only stops beams and blasts, without adding strength, is ordinary protective kit for the few who fight in space.

Who is paid. A government's space forces pay, and plating is easy to copy, so the firms already making armour and suits collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Banning Gun: A handheld weapon that fires a narrow beam of heat.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Banning Gun

Voyage 13, Ray Cummings · 1938

A handheld weapon that fires a narrow beam of heat.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Assuming a soldier carries it, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Beam-Pistol: A hand weapon that fires a beam instead of bullets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Beam-Pistol

Murder in the Void, Edmond Hamilton · 1938

A hand weapon that fires a beam instead of bullets.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Assuming a soldier carries it, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Neuronic Whip: A fictional hand weapon used in the story to inflict pain.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Neuronic Whip

The Stars, Like Dust, Isaac Asimov · 1951

A fictional hand weapon used in the story to inflict pain.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Unlike a device for hurting a held prisoner, a hand weapon that stops an opponent through pain is something guards may lawfully carry, but it is a niche beside their other arms.

Who is paid. Police and prison services pay, and the firms that already supply them would add it to their range and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Para-Beam: A fictional incapacitating beam weapon in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Para-Beam

The Mechanical Monarch, E.C. Tubb · 1958

A fictional incapacitating beam weapon in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a weapon that surely stops a person at a distance without harming them does what no gun can, and police and guards everywhere would carry it in place of firearms.

Who is paid. Police forces and armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers could copy it once it was shown, the suppliers that already hold their contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Powered Armor (or Powered Suit): A fictional armoured combat suit that boosts a soldier's strength, central to the novel's military setting.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Powered Armor (or Powered Suit)

Starship Troopers, Robert Heinlein · 1959

A fictional armoured combat suit that boosts a soldier's strength, central to the novel's military setting.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A suit that makes one soldier as strong and as hard to kill as a vehicle would change what an army costs and how it fights.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and since several engineering firms could build such suits, the defence suppliers that already hold army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Bolo: A fictional self-directed armoured war vehicle in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bolo

Combat Unit, Keith Laumer · 1960

A fictional self-directed armoured war vehicle in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that find and attack targets without a soldier at risk would change how armies fight.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Pencil Beam: A fictional narrow-beam energy weapon in the novel.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pencil Beam

Vulcan's Hammer, Philip K. Dick · 1960

A fictional narrow-beam energy weapon in the novel.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Assuming a soldier carries it, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of N-e (Needle-eyeification) Weapon: A fictional class of ultra-precise weapons in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

N-e (Needle-eyeification) Weapon

The Zap Gun, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A fictional class of ultra-precise weapons in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Assuming these are guided weapons that hit exactly what they are aimed at, they are the main heavy weapon of modern forces and an industry of their own.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and since the idea is easy to copy once shown, the arms firms that already hold the supply contracts and factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Nerve Machine: A fictional torture device portrayed as an instrument of cruelty.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nerve Machine

The Stainless Steel Rat's Revenge, Harry Harrison · 1970

A fictional torture device portrayed as an instrument of cruelty.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It exists only to inflict suffering, and no one may lawfully buy or use such a thing.

Who is paid. Torture devices are outlawed for everyone, governments included, so nothing is sold and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Powered Suit with Trauma Maintenance: Military powered armour built to preserve as much of its wearer as possible after severe injury.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Powered Suit with Trauma Maintenance

The Forever War, Joe Haldeman · 1974

Military powered armour built to preserve as much of its wearer as possible after severe injury.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A suit that makes one soldier as strong and as hard to kill as a vehicle would change what an army costs and how it fights.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and since several engineering firms could build such suits, the defence suppliers that already hold army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Powergun: An energy weapon carried by soldiers in a military adventure series.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Powergun

Hammer's Slammers, David Drake · 1979

An energy weapon carried by soldiers in a military adventure series.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A beam weapon carried in the hand does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Flying Crowbars: Orbital bombardment weapons used by invaders in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flying Crowbars

Footfall, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1985

Orbital bombardment weapons used by invaders in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Striking any point on the ground from orbit would be a major arm of a great power's forces.

Who is paid. Governments pay, and the rocket and arms firms that already launch and build for them would win the work, since the idea itself is simple.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Reason Hypervelocity Railgun: A fictional heavy personal gun carried by a lead character in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Reason Hypervelocity Railgun

Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992

A fictional heavy personal gun carried by a lead character in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A new way of throwing a projectile from a soldier's gun is a variation on weapons armies already have.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and such guns are easy to copy, so the arms makers that already hold supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Fractal Knife: A fictional exotic blade that appears as a hand weapon in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fractal Knife

Virtual Light, William Gibson · 1993

A fictional exotic blade that appears as a hand weapon in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An exotic blade is a curiosity for a few buyers, since a knife already cuts well enough.

Who is paid. A few people buy one for themselves, and assuming others can learn to make the edge once it is shown, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sick Stick: A fictional less-lethal police baton used on suspects in the film.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sick Stick

Minority Report (Movie), Steven Spielberg · 2002

A fictional less-lethal police baton used on suspects in the film.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A baton that drops a suspect on contact is a modest improvement on gear police already carry.

Who is paid. Police forces pay, and such batons are easy to copy, so the firms already supplying police equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Laser-Induced Plasma: A fictional handheld electrical weapon used by characters in a techno-thriller.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Laser-Induced Plasma

Daemon, Daniel Suarez · 2009

A fictional handheld electrical weapon used by characters in a techno-thriller.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Carried in the hand, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Angel Teeth: A fictional guided projectile dropped from high altitude, used as a weapon in the novel.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Angel Teeth

Freedom, Daniel Suarez · 2010

A fictional guided projectile dropped from high altitude, used as a weapon in the novel.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Striking an enemy from the air changed how wars are fought and supports a whole industry of warplanes and their arms.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Surveillance, identity and control · 13
Illustration of Wrist Search Display: A wrist-worn screen that sends out a probing beam and displays live images of places nearby.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wrist Search Display

A Matter of Size, Harry Bates · 1934

A wrist-worn screen that sends out a probing beam and displays live images of places nearby.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Live pictures of nearby places from a beam on the wrist would change scouting, rescue and inspection.

Who is paid. Nothing says it watches people, so firms are assumed to pay; once built it can be copied, so the firms already making imaging gear collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cephaloscope: An instrument that reads a subject's head to reveal whether they are telling the truth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cephaloscope

The Houses of Iszm, Jack Vance · 1954

An instrument that reads a subject's head to reveal whether they are telling the truth.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that reliably shows whether someone is lying would change courts, policing and hiring.

Who is paid. Courts and police pay first, and once it works others could build it, so the firms already supplying police and courts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Predictable Crime: Offences that a computer forecasts before anyone commits them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Predictable Crime

All the Troubles in the World, Isaac Asimov · 1958

Offences that a computer forecasts before anyone commits them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as the forecasting computer behind it, knowing of crimes before they happen would change policing altogether.

Who is paid. Assumes the thing sold is the forecasting computer; the state pays, and the firms already building its computer systems collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Housefly Monitor: A real insect fitted with sensors to spy on people.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Housefly Monitor

Lies, Inc., Philip K. Dick · 1964

A real insect fitted with sensors to spy on people.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A living insect turned into a watcher is a niche spy tool, since small flying machines do the same job more reliably.

Who is paid. Spy services pay, and the few firms already trusted with secret supply work collect because others could copy the method.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cephalic Pattern Door: A door that opens only for people whose brain patterns it recognises.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cephalic Pattern Door

The Zap Gun, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A door that opens only for people whose brain patterns it recognises.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A door that knows its owner's brain pattern is a fancier lock, a convenience.

Who is paid. Firms guarding secure rooms buy it, assuming office use, and once built it could be copied by any lock maker so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Panic Alarm: A home security system that detects intruders and drives them off by inducing fear.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Panic Alarm

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, Philip K. Dick · 1968

A home security system that detects intruders and drives them off by inducing fear.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A home alarm that frightens intruders away is a niche addition to ordinary home security.

Who is paid. Householders buy it, and the firms that already sell and fit home alarms collect because it is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Voicecorder: A recorder that captures speech and judges whether it is honest.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Voicecorder

Whipping Star, Brian Herbert · 1969

A recorder that captures speech and judges whether it is honest.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A recorder that judges whether speech is honest would change courts, policing and hiring, as the other truth readers would.

Who is paid. Courts and police are assumed to be the main buyers, and once made it can be copied, so the firms already supplying them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Scramble Suit: A body-covering sheath that keeps shifting the wearer's appearance to hide who they are.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Scramble Suit

A Scanner Darkly, Philip K. Dick · 1977

A body-covering sheath that keeps shifting the wearer's appearance to hide who they are.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sheath that hides who the wearer is serves a few undercover agents.

Who is paid. Assumes police running undercover agents are the buyers, as in the story; the firms already supplying such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Deep-Radar: A sensor that sees inside very large bodies, even through whole mountains.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Deep-Radar

Ringworld Engineers, Larry Niven · 1980

A sensor that sees inside very large bodies, even through whole mountains.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Measuring and mapping what cannot be seen by eye changes the costs of travel, mapping and digging, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Transport, mapping and mining firms buy it, and it can be copied, so established instrument makers with factories and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Voight-Kampff Test: An interview-based examination used to tell humans apart from manufactured people.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Voight-Kampff Test

Blade Runner, Ridley Scott · 1982

An interview-based examination used to tell humans apart from manufactured people.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Telling people from manufactured copies matters only to the few who hunt such copies.

Who is paid. Police forces pay, and gear sold to them goes through the firms that already hold their supply contracts.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Implanted Microprocessor Monitor: Chips placed in employees' bodies to enforce obedience to corporate policy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Implanted Microprocessor Monitor

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

Chips placed in employees' bodies to enforce obedience to corporate policy.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Chips that force workers to obey are forbidden, so no one at all may buy or use them.

Who is paid. Nothing is lawfully sold, so no one pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Companion Implant: A multipurpose implant that assists, records and communicates for its wearer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Companion Implant

Hominids (Neanderthal Parallax), Robert J. Sawyer · 2003

A multipurpose implant that assists, records and communicates for its wearer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An implant that helps, records and talks for its wearer would replace the personal devices most people carry, though many would refuse surgery.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay, and it could be copied, so the firms that already own device brands and networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Brain-Jacking: Taking control of living insects so they act as covert watchers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Brain-Jacking

Kill Decision, Daniel Suarez · 2012

Taking control of living insects so they act as covert watchers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A living insect turned into a watcher is a niche spy tool, since small flying machines do the same job more reliably.

Who is paid. Spy services pay, and the few firms already trusted with secret supply work collect because others could copy the method.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Food, agriculture and environment · 9
Illustration of Martian Sawgrass: A bred plant variety grown aboard orbiting habitats to replenish breathable air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Martian Sawgrass

QRM - Interplanetary, George O. Smith · 1942

A bred plant variety grown aboard orbiting habitats to replenish breathable air.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Plants that keep the air fresh serve only the few people living in sealed habitats.

Who is paid. Whoever runs the habitat pays, assumed to be a government, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the growers and suppliers that already serve such habitats collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Walking Mill: A huge legged farm machine that reaps grain and turns it into loaves before leaving the field.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Walking Mill

Bread Overhead!, Fritz Leiber · 1958

A huge legged farm machine that reaps grain and turns it into loaves before leaving the field.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Reaping and baking in one machine is a convenience over a harvester and a bakery working apart.

Who is paid. Farm and bakery firms buy it, and I assumed it is easy to copy, so the farm machinery makers with dealers and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Lunar Greenhouse Tunnel: An underground growing space on the Moon for crops and other uses.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lunar Greenhouse Tunnel

The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966

An underground growing space on the Moon for crops and other uses.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A growing tunnel on the Moon feeds a small settlement, not a wide market.

Who is paid. Firms working on the Moon pay for it, and because it must hold air against vacuum, the builders that already make sealed shelters collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cloud Sculpting: Shaping clouds into art using gliders and chemical sprays.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cloud Sculpting

The Cloud Sculptors of Coral D, J.G. Ballard · 1967

Shaping clouds into art using gliders and chemical sprays.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Weather shaped as a show is an entertainment for a small audience.

Who is paid. I assumed spectators and patrons pay the performers, and anyone with the gear and the skill can stage one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Refrigeration Tape: A strip laid across land to keep large stretches of permafrost frozen.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Refrigeration Tape

Tower of Glass, Robert Silverberg · 1970

A strip laid across land to keep large stretches of permafrost frozen.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Keeping frozen ground frozen across wide stretches would protect roads, pipelines and towns in cold lands.

Who is paid. Governments pay to protect land nobody can be charged for, and I assumed the new material is hard to copy, so its first maker keeps what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Pork Tree: A crop plant that grows a substitute for animal flesh.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pork Tree

The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977

A crop plant that grows a substitute for animal flesh.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A crop that grows meat would cut the cost of meat across the whole trade.

Who is paid. Growers buy the plants, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the seed houses and nurseries that already hold stock, land and sales channels collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Genetically Tailored Trees: Trees engineered to make and store usable oil in quantity.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Genetically Tailored Trees

Eye of Cat, Roger Zelazny · 1982

Trees engineered to make and store usable oil in quantity.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Trees that make usable oil in quantity would change the costs of the fuel and oil trade.

Who is paid. Planters and mills buy the trees, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the nurseries and forestry firms that already hold stock, land and sales channels collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Geotect: A designer who shapes land and builds whole physical landscapes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Geotect

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

A designer who shapes land and builds whole physical landscapes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. This is a profession and not a product, so I judged the work it sells: making and shaping whole landscapes to order would be an industry of its own.

Who is paid. I assumed developers and cities hire these designers, and it is a skilled trade that many people can train for, so no one seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of ChickieNobs: Poultry meat harvested from an engineered organism that grows only edible parts.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

ChickieNobs

Oryx and Crake, Margaret Atwood · 2003

Poultry meat harvested from an engineered organism that grows only edible parts.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Meat from an organism that grows only the edible parts would cut the cost of meat across the whole trade.

Who is paid. Meat producers buy the stock, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the breeders and farm suppliers that already hold stock, sheds and sales channels collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Home and everyday life · 8
Illustration of Glass Dome: A vast transparent roof sheltering an entire city from weather.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Glass Dome

A Modern Utopia, H.G. Wells · 1905

A vast transparent roof sheltering an entire city from weather.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Sheltering a whole city from weather is a public work on the scale of an industry.

Who is paid. No citizen could be charged singly for the roof over everyone, so the city pays, and the large construction firms that already win such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pent House: A tower fully sealed off from the outside world so its occupants live apart from the city below.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pent House

The Pent House, David H. Keller · 1932

A tower fully sealed off from the outside world so its occupants live apart from the city below.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tower sealed off from the city is a luxury retreat for a few rich households.

Who is paid. Rich households buy places in it, and since others could build the same, developers who already hold land and money collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Airpolo: A sport where players ride small flying machines to strike floating balls in the air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Airpolo

Sunward Flight, Leo Zagat · 1943

A sport where players ride small flying machines to strike floating balls in the air.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A flying ball game is an entertainment for players and watchers, not a need.

Who is paid. Players and spectators pay, and nobody can own a sport, so any club or maker of small flying machines can take part.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Plastirobe: A garment whose see-through quality shifts with how far away the onlooker stands.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plastirobe

Sales Pitch, Philip K. Dick · 1954

A garment whose see-through quality shifts with how far away the onlooker stands.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A garment whose see-through quality changes with distance is a fashion novelty.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and once the cloth exists any clothing maker could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Psychotropic House: A dwelling that reads its occupants' moods and reshapes itself to reflect them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Psychotropic House

The Thousand Dreams of Stellavista, J.G. Ballard · 1962

A dwelling that reads its occupants' moods and reshapes itself to reflect them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A home that reshapes itself to its occupants' moods is a striking feature of a house, but it does not make housing cheaper or more plentiful.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and once shown it could be copied, so home builders who already hold land and buyers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Home Ad Blocker: A home system that keeps projected three-dimensional adverts from intruding.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Home Ad Blocker

The Computer Connection, Alfred Bester · 1974

A home system that keeps projected three-dimensional adverts from intruding.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping floating adverts out of the home removes an annoyance in a world that has them.

Who is paid. People buy it for peace at home, and once the trick of blocking the images is known any electronics maker could copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Antiholo Generator: A device that cancels unwanted holographic adverts.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Antiholo Generator

The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977

A device that cancels unwanted holographic adverts.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Blocking floating adverts removes an annoyance in a world that has them.

Who is paid. People buy it for peace at home, and once the trick of cancelling the images is known any electronics maker could copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Todos Santos Independency: An entire self-governing town housed within one enormous building.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Todos Santos Independency

Oath of Fealty, Jerry Pournelle (w/L. Niven · 1981

An entire self-governing town housed within one enormous building.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A whole town inside a building is a new way of housing and serving a community, and its self-rule changes who governs, not what is sold.

Who is paid. Residents buy or lease the homes and shops inside, as they would in any large development, and since others could put up such a structure the developers and landowners who already hold the sites collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Exotic physics · 3
Illustration of Concentrated Light: A focused beam of light strong enough to push objects with its pressure.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Concentrated Light

The Shining One, Nat Schachner · 1937

A focused beam of light strong enough to push objects with its pressure.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Pushing things with light is gentle, so its use is mostly driving light sails and nudging objects in space.

Who is paid. Space agencies would pay, and the firms that already build their lasers and craft would supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pseudogravity: Weight felt aboard a craft that is made by engineering rather than a big body's pull.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pseudogravity

Common Sense, Robert Heinlein · 1941

Weight felt aboard a craft that is made by engineering rather than a big body's pull.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Normal weight on ships and stations would make living and working in space healthy and practical, which is an industry's worth but only for those off Earth.

Who is paid. Ship and station builders would fit it as standard, and with nothing to stop copying, those established builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Magnetic Projector: A device that throws out a swirling beam of magnetic force.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magnetic Projector

The Space Beyond, John W. Campbell · 1976

A device that throws out a swirling beam of magnetic force.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A beam of magnetic force is mostly a weapon against metal ships, a narrow use.

Who is paid. I assume armed forces are the buyers, and their existing suppliers would make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Society and economy · 5
Illustration of Rocket-Polo: A ball game played by players riding small rocket-driven vehicles.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rocket-Polo

Ra For The Rajah, John Victor Peterson · 1938

A ball game played by players riding small rocket-driven vehicles.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A new spectator sport is entertainment, a niche.

Who is paid. Fans pay to watch, and since a sport is easy to copy, those who already own teams, grounds and broadcast deals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Rocket Racing: Competitive races between rocket ships across the planets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rocket Racing

Habit, Lester del Rey · 1939

Competitive races between rocket ships across the planets.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A new spectator sport is entertainment, a niche.

Who is paid. Fans pay to watch, and since a sport is easy to copy, those who already own teams, grounds and broadcast deals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spacedog: Veteran crew members who have long worked aboard spaceships.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spacedog

A Question of Salvage, Malcolm Jameson · 1939

Veteran crew members who have long worked aboard spaceships.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Consumption Robots: Humanoid machines assigned to use up surplus products so that people are spared the duty of consuming.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Consumption Robots

The Midas Plague, Frederik Pohl · 1954

Humanoid machines assigned to use up surplus products so that people are spared the duty of consuming.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. In the story people are bound to use up goods, and a machine that does it for them spares them a chore; I judged it by that promise.

Who is paid. Households pay, and I assumed any maker of humanlike robots could supply one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Freezone: An enormous man-made floating island sited beyond any nation's territorial waters.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Freezone

Freezone, John Shirley · 1985

An enormous man-made floating island sited beyond any nation's territorial waters.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A floating city outside every nation's law would draw enough trade to be an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Firms pay for space on an island outside any nation's law, and since anyone with the means could float a rival, the shipyards and marine builders able to make such platforms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Ideas from Technovelgy: Science Fiction Timeline of Inventions (Bill Christensen) (archived copy), as compiled in Not Boring: Sci-Fi Idea Bank (Packy McCormick); names, works, authors and years are theirs and every description is this site's rewording. Categories, arrival decades and profit are judged by AI models, not people. Method