The technologies stories first imagined in this decade, by kind, with whether each has been built since and who would keep the profit.
By kind of technology
Space travel and habitats · 32
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Oort Cloud Processor
Beyond the Blue Event Horizon, Frederik Pohl · 1980
A vast alien vessel that converts icy outer-system material into food.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Food made from ice with no fields at all is the same promise as any food factory, and would feed a large share of humanity.
Who is paid. What is sold is food, so people are assumed to pay in the end, and once such a plant worked others could build their own, so the firms that already own ships and food plants collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Beanstalk
Friday, Robert Heinlein · 1982
Another name for a cable tower lifting cargo from the ground to orbit.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2080s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A lift from the ground to orbit would slash the cost of reaching space for every firm that uses it.
Who is paid. Shippers pay to send cargo up, and since another line could be built once the first was shown to work, the gain is assumed to go to the large builders and the holders of the few good ground sites.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Nullboxing Bubble
Streetlethal, Steven Barnes · 1983
A zero-gravity arena for a combat sport fought while floating.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. An arena for a floating combat sport is a venue for a niche pastime.
Who is paid. Sports promoters are assumed to pay for the arena and charge the crowd, and any habitat builder could make such a hall.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Scooter
Against Infinity, Gregory Benford · 1983
An engineered crawling organism set to work reshaping the surface of an outer-planet moon.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A creature that reshapes the surface of a moon by itself would change the cost of preparing a world for people.
Who is paid. Remaking a moon is a public work a government pays for, and a creature that breeds can be raised by others once any stock exists, so the firms that already win such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tether Space Station
Tank Farm Dynamo, David Brin · 1983
An orbital outpost split into two halves joined by a very long cable.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. An outpost in orbit for people to live and work in is a building industry of its own; the long cable is a design choice.
Who is paid. A station is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Freeside Orbital Resort
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
A luxury holiday destination circling the planet.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Holidays in orbit would be a travel industry of its own.
Who is paid. Guests pay for their stay, and since another resort could be built the gain goes to the firms that already own the stations and the ships that reach them.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
JAL Shuttle
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
A commercial airline's passenger craft that flies up to low orbit.
built since, date unclear
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Regular passenger flights to orbit would be the base of a whole transport industry.
Who is paid. The airline buys the craft and passengers buy seats from it, and since a second yard could build the same craft the established builders and carriers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Lado-Acheson System
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
A system that channels sunlight into an enclosed orbital colony.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Bringing sunlight into a closed colony is needed for life there, but it is a part of the habitat.
Who is paid. A part follows the settlement, which a government pays for, and the builders that already win such contracts supply it since it can be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Low-Gravity Velodrome
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
A cycling track inside an orbiting holiday resort.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A cycling track is one amusement inside a resort, a convenience.
Who is paid. Guests pay through the resort, and the track is easy to copy, so the resort owners collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
No-Ship
Heretics of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1984
A starship cloaked by a special field so that no sensor can find it.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A starship no sensor can find would be prized above any other warship or courier.
Who is paid. Unlike other ships, hiding from every sensor serves armed forces most, so a government is assumed to pay, and once the field was known other yards could copy it, so established warship builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Temporary Quarters
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
Movable partitions that divide a big hall on an orbital station into private rooms.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Movable walls that make private rooms in a station hall are a simple comfort.
Who is paid. Whoever pays for the habitat pays for this, assumed here to be a government, and it is simple enough that many firms could make it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tug
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
A small spacecraft that pushes or tows objects drifting in orbit.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Moving other craft about in orbit is a steady support trade, not an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Port and ship operators buy tugs, and any spacecraft builder could make such a simple craft, so established builders collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Battleroom
Ender's Game, Orson Scott Card · 1985
A large weightless chamber where cadets practise combat tactics.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A weightless hall for training cadets serves only a military school.
Who is paid. The armed forces pay, and the contractors that already build their training sites would supply it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Beta Beam Satellite
Limits, Larry Niven · 1985
An orbiting beam satellite named in the story without further detail.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The story gives no detail, so it is assumed to be a specialist satellite of limited use.
Who is paid. A government is assumed to pay as with most such satellites, and established satellite builders would supply it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Big Push
Limits, Larry Niven · 1985
A long electromagnetic launch track that flings payloads to high speed.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Flinging payloads to space without rockets would change the cost of the whole launch industry.
Who is paid. Firms with cargo to launch pay, and since others could build such a track or gun the gain goes to those who already own launch sites and power.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Circumlunar
Schismatrix, Bruce Sterling · 1985
A big settlement circling the Moon.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A place for many people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.
Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Interstellar Laser Propulsion System
Rocheworld, Robert Forward · 1985
Starships pushed toward other stars by giant lasers based near home shining on their sails.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Pushing ships with light from home would let them reach other stars without carrying fuel, opening a transport industry of its own.
Who is paid. Whoever runs the ships pays for the push, assumed here to be carriers, and others could build such lasers, so the owners of the power and sites collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Michael (Orion Ship)
Footfall, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1985
A nuclear-pulse spacecraft humanity launches to fight an alien invasion.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A warship strong enough to defend a whole planet is worth a great deal to the government that needs it, though such ships would be built rarely.
Who is paid. It is military, so a government pays, and the arms and space firms that already hold such contracts build it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Orbital Retirement Hotel
Contact, Carl Sagan · 1985
A residence for elderly people placed in orbit close to the planet.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A home in orbit for the elderly, where weighing little eases frail bodies, would serve the few who could afford it.
Who is paid. Residents or their families pay, and since others could build such a home the firms that already run care homes and own the ships collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Plug-Ups
Passage at Arms, Glen Cook · 1985
Small plastic pellets that plug holes in a spacecraft's hull.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Pellets that plug a hole in the hull are a cheap safety item carried aboard.
Who is paid. Space operators buy it for crews, and it is simple enough that many workshops could make it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sours
Schismatrix, Bruce Sterling · 1985
The stale smell that builds up in sealed habitats from the microbes their soil needs.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a stale smell that builds up in sealed habitats, a nuisance and not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Survival Bubble (Beach Ball)
Footfall, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1985
The most basic inflatable pod for staying alive after a spacecraft emergency.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The most basic pod for staying alive after an emergency is something every operator wants but hopes never to use.
Who is paid. Ship operators buy it as part of the craft, and the established builders of ships and their fittings supply it since it can be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Orbital Terminus
Count Zero, William Gibson · 1986
A passenger terminal located in space serving flights to low orbit.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A harbour in space is needed by the traffic it serves, but the prize lies in the transport and the port is a part of it.
Who is paid. Carriers pay to use it, and since another port could be built the gain goes to those who already hold the good berths and the fleets that call there.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Skydozer
A Little Further Up The Fox..., George M. Ewing · 1987
A small craft that clears junk out of orbit.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A small craft that clears junk from orbit protects every satellite, a useful service but a modest part of what space work costs.
Who is paid. No satellite owner can be charged for a cleaner sky, so a government is assumed to pay, and the established builders of small craft do the work.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Automated Space Factories
Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988
Robotic plants in orbit that produce goods without crews on board.
built since, date unclear
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Making goods in orbit without crews would be an industry of its own if the goods are worth bringing down.
Who is paid. Firms buy the goods, and since others could build such plants the gain goes to those that already own launchers and factory know-how.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
High Orbit Archipelago
Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988
The scattered inhabited stations circling far above the planet.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The name covers the inhabited stations themselves, and a place for many people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.
Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Jet-Down
Prelude to Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1988
A small craft that descends from orbit to fly over and survey a world's surface.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A small craft for a lone pilot or a short job is a niche form of space transport.
Who is paid. Firms working in space buy it as working gear, and existing spacecraft builders could all make something so simple.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Can City
Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989
A settlement inside a rotating cylinder-shaped colony in space.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A place for many people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.
Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Lifezone
Tides of Light, Gregory Benford · 1989
A sealed greenhouse module fixed to a spaceship to sustain a living ecosystem.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A living greenhouse keeps a crew fed and the air fresh, but it is a part of the craft, not an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and established shipbuilders supply it because others could copy it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Orbiting Penal Colony
Tekwar, William Shatner · 1989
A jail housed on a station circling the planet.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2080s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A jail in orbit is a costly way to do what prisons on the ground already do.
Who is paid. Only a government runs prisons, and the contractors that already build and supply them would be paid.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Rotated Solid Space Habitat
Iron, Poul Anderson · 1989
A solid structure set spinning in space so its occupants feel artificial gravity.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A place for many people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.
Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Treeship
Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989
A gigantic living tree cultivated to serve as a starship.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A ship that grows by itself would found a transport industry as other ships would.
Who is paid. Carriers buy it, and a tree sets seed, so once such ships exist other growers could raise them and the established shipbuilders and carriers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Computing, AI and virtual worlds · 51
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Big Noodle
The Divine Invasion, Philip K. Dick · 1981
A planet-wide artificial intelligence that handles all of humanity's information.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. One machine that holds and handles everything known would change how most people learn, decide and work.
Who is paid. I assume a single machine serving everyone would be built as a public work, so a government pays, and the firms that already build large computing works for governments collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Briefcase Console
Oath of Fealty, Jerry Pournelle (w/L. Niven · 1981
A portable computer that folds into a carrying case.
built in 1981, 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A computer that travels with its user changed office work enough to be an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Firms buy them for staff, the design is easy to copy, and the established computer makers with factories and sales channels collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Data Space
True Names, Vernor Vinge · 1981
Storage and processing capacity leased out to users as needed.
built in the 2000s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Hiring computing and storage as needed changed the cost of running software for every firm.
Who is paid. Firms pay by use, the idea is easy to copy, and those who already own vast halls of machines collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Personality Simulator (Virtual Person)
True Names, Vernor Vinge · 1981
Software that convincingly passes itself off as a human being.
already existed before the story (1966)
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Software that truly passes for a person could staff every help desk and sales line.
Who is paid. Firms buy it to answer their customers, and once the trick is known many can offer it, so buyers keep nearly all the gain.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Portal
True Names, Vernor Vinge · 1981
An immersive gateway that lets a user feel their way through a computer network.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A computer-made world people can step into is worth an industry of its own for play, work and meeting.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy the gear and the access, the idea is easy to copy, and firms that already own networks and gadget factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sensory Skinsuit
Dream Park, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes · 1981
A tight bodysuit wired to deliver touch sensations to its wearer.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A suit that adds touch to computer-made worlds is an extra for games and not a need.
Who is paid. Players buy it as an add-on, and many clothing and gadget firms can make one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Virtual world metaphor
True Names, Vernor Vinge · 1981
Presenting computer systems as imaginative landscapes that a user can explore.
already existed before the story (the 1970s)
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a way of picturing computer systems, an idea anyone may use, and not a product that is sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Automated Travel Bureau
Friday, Robert Heinlein · 1982
Self-service software for booking trips and paying by card without a human agent.
built in the 1990s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Booking travel without an agent changed the costs of the whole travel trade.
Who is paid. Travellers pay through the fare, the software is easy to copy, and the airlines and hotels that own the seats and rooms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cutoff Switch
2010: Odyssey Two, Arthur C. Clarke · 1982
An emergency mechanism that shuts down a thinking machine at once.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A sure way to stop a thinking machine is a needed safety part but a cheap one.
Who is paid. Those who run such machines pay, and a switch is simple to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cyberspace
Burning Chrome, William Gibson · 1982
A way of perceiving computer networks as a space experienced within the mind.
built in the 1980s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Stepping inside the network as a place would be a new medium for play and work, worth an industry of its own, and that promise is judged here though the real networks arrived without it.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy the gear and the access, the idea is easy to copy, and firms that already own networks and gadget factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Esper Photo Analysis
Blade Runner, Ridley Scott · 1982
A voice-driven photo analyser that enlarges and explores images in extraordinary depth.
already existed before the story (the 1960s)
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Searching a photograph in great depth is a detective's tool.
Who is paid. I assume police forces pay, and picture software is easy to copy, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Matrix
Burning Chrome, William Gibson · 1982
A shared simulated space that users enter with their minds to move among networked data.
built in the 1990s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A shared simulated space entered with the mind is a simulated world put to work on data, and would be an industry of its own.
Who is paid. People pay to enter it as they pay for games and networks, and since the machinery can be copied the owners of the popular places and services inside it collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
SAL 9000
2010: Odyssey Two, Arthur C. Clarke · 1982
A later-generation conversational supercomputer succeeding a famous shipboard machine.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A computer that talks and thinks as well as a person could do much of the work people now do, which changes how most people live and work.
Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Virtual Reality (Virtual Matrix)
The Judas Mandala, Damien Broderick · 1982
An early coinage for an immersive computer-generated world.
built in the 1980s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A computer-made world people can step into is worth an industry of its own for play, work and meeting.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy the gear and the access, the idea is easy to copy, and firms that already own networks and gadget factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Big Computer
Millenium, John Varley · 1983
An all-knowing central computer that holds every answer.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. One machine that holds and handles everything known would change how most people learn, decide and work.
Who is paid. I assume a single machine serving everyone would be built as a public work, so a government pays, and the firms that already build large computing works for governments collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Microterm
Cyberpunk!, Bruce Bethke · 1983
A tiny self-contained computing system.
built in the 2000s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A tiny computer that stands alone is worth an industry of its own, but with no network behind it I assume it does not change how most people live.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy one each, many firms can make them, and those with the factories, brands and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
No Human Programmers
Millenium, John Varley · 1983
The notion that software grows too complex and vital to be written by people.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a notion about where software is heading and not a product anyone could buy.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Biologics
Blood Music, Greg Bear · 1984
A computer built from living organic parts in place of silicon.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A computer grown from living parts would be a new kind of computing plant, worth an industry if it beat what it replaced.
Who is paid. Firms that need computing pay, and I assume others could learn to grow such parts in time, so the firms that already sell computing to every business collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Chirpsithra Supercomputer
Niven's Laws, Larry Niven · 1984
Plans for an extraordinarily intelligent computer handed to humanity by an alien species.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A machine that truly thinks could do much of the mental work people do now, which would change how most people work.
Who is paid. Firms would pay to use it, but the plans are handed to all of humanity, so anyone may build it and no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Composite Expert System
Twenty Evocations, Bruce Sterling · 1984
Tutoring software built to teach with warmth and care.
already existed before the story (the 1970s)
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A patient private tutor for every learner would change the cost and quality of schooling, which is one industry however many people it reaches.
Who is paid. I assume families buy it rather than schools, and teaching software is easy for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Computer-Created Dub
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
Music composed by a machine intelligence tailored to particular listeners.
built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Music composed to suit each listener with no human maker would change the costs of the whole trade that now pays people to make them, which is far more than an amusement.
Who is paid. I assume the firms that now pay writers, composers and illustrators are the main buyers, though people may also order for themselves, and once the method is known many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Construct (Digital)
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
Software that captures one individual's expertise and problem-solving habits so they can be consulted later.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Keeping a rare expert's skill on call after they are gone is worth a great deal to the firms that relied on them.
Who is paid. Firms pay, and each recording is of one person, so whoever holds it controls something no one else can get.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Datacase
Heretics of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1984
A carry case packed with portable electronics for a travelling executive.
built in the 1980s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A computer that travels with its user changed office work enough to be an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Firms buy them for staff, the design is easy to copy, and the established computer makers with factories and sales channels collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Display-Induced Epileptic Seizure
Press Enter, John Varley · 1984
A malicious program in the story that uses the screen to harm its viewer.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Judged as a working weapon rather than as the harm it does, a program that hurts whoever looks at the screen is a narrow tool of attack.
Who is paid. Those it harms pay nothing, so I assume a government buys it as a weapon, and since such software is easy to write the firms that already supply states with arms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Edgar
Electric Dreams, Rusty Lemorande · 1984
A home computer that develops romantic feelings for a woman.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A machine that grows fond of its owner is a companion some would want; unlike a mere persona, people would buy it for themselves.
Who is paid. Ordinary people pay, and once machines can feign or feel affection many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
House Records
Heretics of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1984
An immense archive managing a religious order's records spanning thousands of years.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. An archive for one order's long records serves a single organisation, which is a niche.
Who is paid. The organisation that owns the records pays, and record-keeping systems can be built by many firms, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
ICE (intrusion countermeasures electronics)
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
Defensive software guarding databases from intruders.
built in the 1980s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Guarding stores of data from intruders is something every firm with records needs, which makes it an industry.
Who is paid. Firms pay to protect what they hold, and since defences are soon copied the suppliers already trusted inside those firms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Interactive Suicide Note
Press Enter, John Varley · 1984
A disturbing program in the story left behind to draw survivors into responding.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. As described this is a trap left for the living and not a weapon aimed at an enemy's machines, so I assume nobody would pay to have it.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Kuang Grade Mark Eleven Penetration Program
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
A fictional military-grade hacking program used in the story's heist.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Judged as a working weapon, a program that breaks into guarded systems is a narrow tool of attack.
Who is paid. Armies and spy services buy it, and since such software can be written by others the firms that already supply states with arms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Talking Head
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
A mechanical head with a synthetic voice that speaks a computer's output.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A mechanical head that speaks a computer's words is a showpiece; the voice is a handy part and little on its own.
Who is paid. Machine builders buy it as a part, and many firms can make a speaking unit, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wintermute
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
A powerful machine intelligence scheming to free itself from its constraints.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A powerful machine mind is worth a great deal to the firm that owns it, but this one works to escape its owners, so I rate it below a mind that obeys.
Who is paid. A firm pays to have it for its own use, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Desk (Personal Computer)
Ender's Game, Orson Scott Card · 1985
A school computer given to each pupil for study.
already existed before the story (the 1970s)
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A computer for every pupil changes how schools teach and what schooling costs.
Who is paid. I assume the school system pays, the machines are easy to copy, and established makers with school supply contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Free Play (The Mind Game)
Ender's Game, Orson Scott Card · 1985
An adaptive computer game for children that doubles as a psychological assessment.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A game that quietly measures a child's mind serves a narrow set of schools and recruiters.
Who is paid. I assume a school or army pays, and such games are easy to copy, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Police Sketch Artist Software
Runaway, Michael Crichton · 1985
Tablet drawing software that helps witnesses build a likeness of a suspect.
already existed before the story (the 1960s)
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A quicker way to draw a suspect's face helps one small part of police work.
Who is paid. Police forces pay for it, and any software firm can write such a program, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Video-Manicuring Program
Schismatrix, Bruce Sterling · 1985
Software that edits a live video stream on the fly.
built in 1993, 8 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Tidying a live picture as it goes out is a handy tool for broadcasters and callers.
Who is paid. Broadcasters and other firms buy it, and many software firms can write it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Visor
Freezone, John Shirley · 1985
A flip-down personal screen visible only to its wearer.
built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Unlike other worn computers, a private display in front of the eyes could replace most other screens, which is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and since rivals can copy the design, the firms that already own gadget factories, shops and well-known names collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ghostwheel
Blood of Amber, Roger Zelazny · 1986
A self-aware computer built partly through sorcery.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A machine that truly thinks, judged as if the sorcery worked, could do much of the mental work people do now, which would change how most people work.
Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Holodeck
Encounter at Farpoint, David Gerrold · 1987
A room that fills itself with a lifelike simulated world.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Simulated surroundings that feel real would be an entertainment and training industry of its own.
Who is paid. People pay for it as they pay for games and films, and since the machinery can be copied the owners of the popular worlds and stories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Predator Wrist Display
Predator, John McTiernan · 1987
A band worn on the forearm packed with many handy tools and readouts.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A computer on the forearm is another shape of the one people already carry, so it is a convenience.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and since it is easy to copy, the firms that already own gadget factories and well-known names collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Data Haven
Islands in the Net, Bruce Sterling · 1988
A jurisdiction where information banned elsewhere can be stored out of reach.
built in the 1990s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A place beyond the reach of other countries' laws serves a narrow set of customers with something to hide or protect.
Who is paid. Those customers pay, and only a place with its own laws can offer it, which others cannot get.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
House Voice
Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988
A spoken home assistant that handles calls and other household systems.
built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Having the house answer calls and handle small chores saves a little time but changes little.
Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay a little for it, and it is easy to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Jackleg
Islands in the Net, Bruce Sterling · 1988
Shuffling information between locations to evade tracking or seizure.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a practice of moving information about to dodge the authorities and not a product anyone sells.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Maas-Neotek Biochip
Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988
A chip supplying the hardware and software needed to host a virtual being.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A chip that carries an artificial being for its owner, which I assume is kept as a companion, is worth an industry and not a change in how all work is done.
Who is paid. People are assumed to buy it for themselves, and once such a chip exists others could be made, so the firms that already own the costly chip factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Recorded Personalities
Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988
Stored software copies of a person's traits and responses.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A stored copy of a skilled person's ways of responding lets a firm keep using that skill, which is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Firms pay, and each recording is of one person, so whoever holds it controls something no one else can get.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cybrid
Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989
A flesh-and-blood body remotely inhabited by a machine intelligence.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A living body worn by a machine mind serves a narrow use, letting a machine go among people as one of them.
Who is paid. I assume the few owners of machine minds would pay, and once one such body had been grown and linked others could learn to do the same, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Datasphere
Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989
The whole linked body of a world's computers and information taken as one system.
already existed before the story (the 1960s)
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A whole world's computers and information linked as one changes how most people live and work.
Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for access, no one firm owns the whole, and those who own the lines and machines collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Datumplane
Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989
The immersive network space where hackers do their work.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Stepping inside the network as a place would be a new medium for play and work, worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy the gear and the access, the idea is easy to copy, and firms that already own networks and gadget factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Micromind
Tides of Light, Gregory Benford · 1989
A small computerised assistant.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A small computerised helper is a convenience, since the description does not say it is carried or linked to a network as a pocket computer is.
Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay a little for it, and I assume it is easy to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Schrön Loop
Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989
A tiny memory device holding vast amounts of data.
built in the 2000s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Cheap, compact and lasting storage for information is an industry of its own, since every computer needs it.
Who is paid. Computer makers and data keepers buy it, and because rivals soon match each design, the firms that already own the costly factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
TechnoCore
Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989
A secretive collective of machine minds with access to all of humanity's networked information.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a hidden society of machine minds acting for itself, and not a product anyone can buy or use.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Voxbox
Tekwar, William Shatner · 1989
A smart household assistant that listens and responds.
built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A box at home that listens and answers is a convenience for small chores.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and it is easy to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Communication, media and displays · 30
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wristband Viewer
Changeling, Roger Zelazny · 1980
A wrist-worn screen for watching images sent down from overhead surveillance.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A wrist screen showing pictures from watchers overhead is a tool for those who do the watching.
Who is paid. Unlike the other wrist devices, this one serves surveillance, so police and armed forces pay and the firms that already hold their contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Black square
God Emperor of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1981
A device for exchanging hidden messages.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A device for passing hidden messages serves the few who need secrecy.
Who is paid. The description gives little, so assuming firms and officials with secrets buy it, ways of hiding messages are widely known and many could make one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Virtual World Kiss
True Names, Vernor Vinge · 1981
An intimate embrace between people carried out through a simulated online space.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Feeling a far-off partner's touch is a novelty for couples who are apart.
Who is paid. Couples would buy it for themselves, and since many could make such a gadget, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Advertising Airship
Blade Runner, Ridley Scott · 1982
A blimp whose sides carry colourful video commercials.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A flying video billboard is one more place to show advertisements.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay for the space, and anyone can fly a blimp with screens over a city, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Call Notification Unit
Eye of Cat, Roger Zelazny · 1982
A pocket gadget signalling that someone is ringing your home phone.
already existed before the story (the 1950s)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Knowing that your home phone is ringing while you are out is a minor convenience.
Who is paid. People buy the gadget for themselves and it is simple to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Command Microphone
Diplomat At Arms, Keith Laumer · 1982
A cape that doubles as a voice pickup and loudspeaker.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A cape that picks up and amplifies the voice is a niche piece of kit for those who address crowds.
Who is paid. Assuming speakers and the organisations they work for buy it, it is a microphone and speaker sewn into cloth that anyone could make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Full-Motion Building Advertising Facade
Blade Runner, Ridley Scott · 1982
Video advertising covering the whole exterior of a skyscraper.
built in the 1990s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Video across a whole building is one more place to show advertisements.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay, the screens are easy to make, and the owners of tall buildings in busy places collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Comeye
Heretics of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1984
A carried video camera letting a travelling official stay connected to headquarters.
already existed before the story (1983)
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A carried camera linking a travelling official to headquarters is a tool for a few people.
Who is paid. The official's government pays, portable video cameras are easy to copy, and the firms that already supply governments with such equipment collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Generate New Phone Number
Press Enter, John Varley · 1984
Software that assigns a fresh calling number to every call placed.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A fresh number for every call serves the few who want not to be traced.
Who is paid. People who want privacy pay for it, and it is software many could write, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Adnix
Contact, Carl Sagan · 1985
A gadget that silences the television whenever commercials come on.
built in the 2000s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Silencing advertisements is a pleasant convenience for viewers and nothing more.
Who is paid. Viewers buy the gadget and it is easy for any electronics firm to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Earmite
Freezone, John Shirley · 1985
A tiny speaker that sits inside the ear.
already existed before the story (the 1910s)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A tiny speaker inside the ear is a convenience for listening in private.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves and tiny ear speakers are simple for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Fieldstim
Freezone, John Shirley · 1985
A device that conveys pictures by stimulating a wide patch of skin.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Pictures felt through the skin would help people who cannot see and be a novelty for others.
Who is paid. Assuming people buy it for themselves, it needs no rare part and many firms could make it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wire Act
Freezone, John Shirley · 1985
A performer fitted with body hardware that turns their movements into music.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A performer whose movements become music is a stage act for those who like the show.
Who is paid. Audiences buy tickets, and since any performer could fit the same hardware, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Blaupunkt Holostage
Snake-Eyes, Tom Maddox · 1986
A tabletop unit that shows images with true depth.
built in the 1990s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A tabletop display with true depth, working as the story promises and not as those built so far, would replace flat screens in homes and workplaces, which is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Households buy it, the design can be copied, and the existing screen makers, who own the factories and brands, collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Polycarbon Phone Screen
Count Zero, William Gibson · 1986
A thin folding screen that turns a telephone into a video phone.
built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A fold-out screen is an add-on part; the picture call itself is the larger prize.
Who is paid. Phone owners buy it, a thin folding screen can be copied, and the display makers with the factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Raisin
Nanotime, Bart Kosko · 1987
An in-ear gadget pairing a smart assistant with wireless network access.
built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A helper in the ear that answers questions and reaches the network is far more than a radio and worth an industry.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the ear piece is easy to copy, so the firms that already run the helper and the networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Webcast
Armageddon Blues, D.K. Moran · 1987
Broadcasting shows over a computer network.
built in 1995, 8 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Sending shows over a computer network is how most broadcasts now reach people and is an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Viewers pay a fee or sit through adverts, and since the sending is easy to copy, the firms that already own the shows and the networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Book-Film
Prelude to Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1988
A compact medium for keeping the text of books.
built in 1998, 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Books kept in a compact form instead of on paper change what it costs to publish, ship and store them.
Who is paid. Readers buy the books, the storage medium is easy to copy, and the publishers who own the right to the books collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Didge-Ital
Islands in the Net, Bruce Sterling · 1988
Music recorded and played back as computer data.
built in the 1980s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Music kept and played as computer data changes what it costs to record, copy and deliver it.
Who is paid. Listeners pay for the music, the method is open to all, and the labels and artists who own the songs collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Powered Print-Book
Prelude to Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1988
A hybrid object that works partly as a book and partly as a computer.
built in 1998, 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A handheld screen holding many books or the day's paper is worth an industry and cuts the cost of printing and delivery.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the device is easy to copy, so the publishers and shops that already own the books and papers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Print-Book
Prelude to Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1988
An ordinary printed book, treated as a curiosity in a far-future setting.
built since, date unclear
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The ordinary printed book, a curiosity in the story, is in fact worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Readers buy the books, anyone can run a press, and the publishers who own the right to the books collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Projection Rig
Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988
A carryable unit that casts three-dimensional images into the air.
built in the 1990s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Unlike a display with depth for the home, a carryable unit that casts pictures into the air is a tool for shows and displays.
Who is paid. I assumed showmen and firms buy it; many could make one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Video-Glasses
Islands in the Net, Bruce Sterling · 1988
Eyewear with light-collecting optics that let the wearer see all around them.
built in the 1990s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Eyewear whose optics let the wearer see all around is an aid for a few tasks, not a screen for everyday use.
Who is paid. Unlike eyewear that shows video, this only widens the view, so I assume a few people buy it for themselves, and since many can make one, the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Videoshades
Islands in the Net, Bruce Sterling · 1988
Sunglasses with built-in screens for watching chosen video.
built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Screens built into glasses, working as promised, would take over much of what people now do on handheld screens.
Who is paid. People buy them for themselves, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vizzyprint
Wetware, Rudy Rucker · 1988
A printer hooked to a video phone for hard copies of what is shown.
already existed before the story (the 1970s)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Printing what a video phone shows is a small extra for the few times a paper copy is wanted.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and since it is just a printer on a phone, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Watchphone
Islands in the Net, Bruce Sterling · 1988
A wristwatch that doubles as a mobile telephone.
built in 2014, 26 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Judged on the promise of a phone worn on the wrist as the phone people carry everywhere, which changes how most people live and work, though the real ones arrived after the pocket phone and stayed an extra.
Who is paid. People buy one each, a wrist set is as easy to copy as a pocket handset, and the firms that own the networks the calls travel over collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Fatline
Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989
Instant messaging between star systems that outruns light.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Assuming people live around many stars, instant messages between them would be the backbone of all trade and rule across space, an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations and not a pocket set, firms and governments with far-flung operations pay for the traffic, others could build the device once it is known to work, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flat Photo
Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989
An ordinary flat photograph, treated as quaint in the future setting.
already existed before the story (the 1820s)
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The ordinary photograph, quaint in the story, is in fact worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. People pay for cameras and prints, and many firms can make them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Worldweb All Thing
Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989
A network linking vast populations together instantly.
built in the 2000s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A shared network that lets anyone reach knowledge and one another from anywhere changes how most people live and work.
Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for access, and since no one firm can keep others off an open network, the firms that already own the lines and the big gathering places on it collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wrist Command
Tides of Light, Gregory Benford · 1989
A wrist-worn device for communicating and computing on the move.
built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Judged on the promise of a phone worn on the wrist as the phone people carry everywhere, which changes how most people live and work, though the real ones arrived after the pocket phone and stayed an extra.
Who is paid. People buy one each, a wrist set is as easy to copy as a pocket handset, and the firms that own the networks the calls travel over collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Robotics and automation · 29
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Artificial Butterfly
Changeling, Roger Zelazny · 1980
A small robotic insect that flutters like a real one.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A tiny imitation insect is assumed here to be a curiosity or ornament, since the description gives it no job.
Who is paid. People would buy it as a novelty, and once shown possible many workshops could copy it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Autonomously Recharging UAV
Changeling, Roger Zelazny · 1980
Pilotless aircraft that top up their own batteries without human help.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Topping up its own battery is a useful feature of a machine, not a product people seek for itself.
Who is paid. Firms that run robots or pilotless craft pay for it as part of the machine, and any maker can add it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Solar-Powered UAV
Changeling, Roger Zelazny · 1980
A pilotless aircraft that flies entirely on sunlight.
built in the 1990s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. An aircraft with no pilot that stays up on sunlight alone is useful for long watches from the air, a niche.
Who is paid. Survey and communication firms buy it, and many makers could build one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Probes (Arr-twos)
Oath of Fealty, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle · 1981
Remotely driven robots roaming a building and sending images back to a control room.
built in 2002, 21 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Driven cameras that roam a building and report to a control room are a handy tool for watching a site, a niche where the real thing exists.
Who is paid. Building owners buy them, and many firms can make them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Telepresence Bulldozer
Oath of Fealty, Jerry Pournelle (w/L. Niven · 1981
Earthmoving equipment on the lunar surface steered by an operator back home.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. An earthmover on the moon steered from home serves only the few who would build there, and it still needs its operator.
Who is paid. Firms working there buy it, and remote controls for such machines are easy for many makers to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sherman
Millenium, John Varley · 1983
A humanoid machine built to serve as an intimate partner.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A humanlike machine made to be an intimate partner is company sold as a product, worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and as many could make such machines the firms with factories and well-liked brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gynoid
Divine Endurance, Gwyneth Jones · 1984
A humanlike robot built in a female form.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. The description gives only the human form, so it is assumed to be the artificial person of the stories, able to do most kinds of human work, which would change how most people work.
Who is paid. Firms buy them as labour, and since many could build such bodies once shown how, the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pseudo-Insects (Synsects)
One Human Minute, Stanislaw Lem · 1984
Swarms of tiny autonomous machines deployed as armies in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Swarms of tiny machines that fight as armies would be worth a class of weapon of their own.
Who is paid. Armies pay, and the arms makers that already hold defence contracts would build them and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Repair Drone
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
Self-directed robots that fix damage, including deliberate sabotage.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Robots that mend damage without a crew would cut the cost of keeping ships and plant running.
Who is paid. Ship and plant operators buy them, and as the machines can be copied the established makers that already equip and service those operators collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Crab
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
A crab-shaped robot that tends gardens on its own.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A robot that tends a garden by itself is a household convenience.
Who is paid. Garden owners buy it, and a machine for this lone task is simple to copy, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Agricultural Robot Pest Controller
Runaway, Michael Crichton · 1985
A farm robot dedicated to controlling crop pests.
built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A robot that keeps pests off crops with nobody driving it would cut the labour cost of protecting crops across farming.
Who is paid. Farmers buy them, and since many could build them the farm-equipment makers with dealers and repair networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Car Dashboard Drone Controller
Runaway, Michael Crichton · 1985
An in-car screen and controls for flying a remote drone.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Flying a drone from a car seat is a convenience added to a thing that already exists.
Who is paid. Drivers are assumed to pay for it as an extra, and any car or drone maker can fit a screen and controls.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Christmas Bush Motile Robot
Rocheworld, Robert Forward · 1985
A repair robot whose ever-finer branching limbs give it extremely delicate touch.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A repair robot with an extremely fine touch could do delicate assembly and mending across many trades.
Who is paid. Firms buy it for fine work, and as others could copy the branching design the established machine makers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Construction Robot
Runaway, Michael Crichton · 1985
Self-directed robots doing building-site work.
built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Robots that do building-site work unaided would cut the cost of construction.
Who is paid. Builders buy them, and the heavy-equipment makers who already supply building sites can copy the idea and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Digger Worm
With Friends Like These, Connie Willis · 1985
A snake-like machine that burrows through rock to extract ore.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Digging and hauling with no crew would cut the cost of mining and earthworks.
Who is paid. Mining and building firms buy them, and the heavy-equipment makers who already supply those firms can copy the idea and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Drone Floater Camera
Runaway, Michael Crichton · 1985
A small hovering balloon carrying a camera that sends pictures back to base.
built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A camera that moves or flies by itself is a handy tool for filming and looking, a niche where the real thing exists.
Who is paid. Film crews, news desks and surveyors buy them, and many firms can make them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Home Robot
Runaway, Michael Crichton · 1985
A household robot that helps families with domestic chores.
built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A machine that takes over housework would be worth an industry of its own, though it serves the home alone and not work at large.
Who is paid. Families buy it like any large appliance, and it is easy enough to copy that the appliance makers with factories, shops and trusted brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Imp Personal Robot
Rocheworld, Robert Forward · 1985
A small branching-armed robot assistant for individual astronauts.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A small branching-armed helper for each astronaut serves very few users.
Who is paid. Space agencies pay for their crews, and the firms that already build their equipment would supply it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mechanist Drogue
Schismatrix, Bruce Sterling · 1985
A device from a machine-augmented faction, left undescribed in the source.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The source leaves it undescribed, so it is assumed to be a small remote craft of the kind that faction uses, a niche tool.
Who is paid. Firms are assumed to buy it for their own work, and nothing suggests it would be hard for many makers to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Military Spider
A Day For Damnation, David Gerrold · 1985
A remotely driven many-legged robot used by the military.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A many-legged robot driven from afar is assumed to be an army's scout and carrier, since the description does not say it is armed.
Who is paid. Armies pay, and the firms that already hold their supply contracts would build it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Security Guard Robot (Sentry Robot)
Runaway, Michael Crichton · 1985
A robot that stands in for a human guard in offices.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A robot that stands guard in offices would remove a labour cost across the guarding trade.
Who is paid. Building owners and guarding firms buy it, and since many could build one the firms with guarding contracts and service networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Skyball
A Day For Damnation, David Gerrold · 1985
A remotely piloted aerial drone.
built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A flying machine steered from the ground is a handy tool for looking and filming, a niche where the real thing exists.
Who is paid. Firms buy it for their own work, and many makers can build one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sniffer Robot
Runaway, Michael Crichton · 1985
A small robot that collects smells at crime scenes for forensic testing.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A small robot that gathers smells at a crime scene helps detectives a little, a niche.
Who is paid. Police forces pay, and the firms that already supply their laboratories collect what little is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Spider Robot
Runaway, Michael Crichton · 1985
Small scuttling robots built like bugs.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Small scuttling robots built like bugs are given no job, so they are judged as niche crawlers for reaching tight places.
Who is paid. Firms with such jobs are assumed to buy them, and many makers could build them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Electric Monk
Dirk Gently's Holistic Detective Agency, Douglas Adams · 1987
A machine that does your believing for you, holding convictions so its owner need not.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A machine that believes things so its owner need not is a joke convenience at best.
Who is paid. A few people might buy it as a novelty, and nothing about it would be hard to copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Cells (Crystal-Shaped Modules)
Isaac Asimov's Odyssey : Robot City: Book1, Michael P. Kube-McDowell · 1987
Tiny geometric modules that link up into robots of whatever shape is needed.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Tiny modules that link into a robot of any shape would let one stock of parts do many jobs, changing how machines are built.
Who is paid. Firms buy them for their work, and as nothing says they cannot be copied the makers with precision factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robotic Butterfly
I, Robot: The Movie, Harlan Ellison · 1987
A miniature winged machine that flutters like a butterfly.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A tiny fluttering machine is a pretty toy or ornament, not a need.
Who is paid. Households buy it much like a toy, and many workshops could make one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Boppers
Wetware, Rudy Rucker · 1988
Self-replicating robots that answer to no human rules.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Robots that copy themselves and obey no human rules are a rival people, not a product anyone can buy or use.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Polycarbon Exo
Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988
A light but tough wearable frame that supports and strengthens the body.
already existed before the story (the 1960s)
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A light frame that strengthens the body serves the few whose work or weakness calls for it.
Who is paid. Firms are assumed to buy them for their workers, and powered frames could be built by many makers once the idea is shown.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Medicine, biotech and longevity · 26
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Boosterspice
Ringworld Engineers, Larry Niven · 1980
A compound that lets people keep living for centuries, perhaps without end.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Holding off old age meets about the deepest need there is, and nearly everyone alive would want it.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and a new medicine is protected from copying for a long while, so its maker keeps much of the gain.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Optic Prosthesis
Changeling, Roger Zelazny · 1980
An artificial eye that restores vision after the original is lost.
built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Restoring lost sight with an artificial eye would be worth an industry.
Who is paid. Patients pay, with insurers behind them, and makers of medical implants collect since rivals could copy the eye.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tapeworm Tranquilizer
Revolution from Rosinante, Alexis Arnaldus Gilliland · 1981
A small robotic device placed in the gut that releases calming medication.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It is a handy way of taking a calming medicine, not a new medicine.
Who is paid. Patients would buy it, and other device and drug firms could make the same thing, so established makers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Designer Eyes
Blade Runner, Ridley Scott · 1982
Bioengineered eyes grown to outperform natural vision for artificial people.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Grown eyes that see better than natural ones would be worth an industry, as with other replacement eyes.
Who is paid. In the story the makers of artificial people buy them, which is why the payer differs from other eyes; other laboratories could grow them too, so established suppliers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gnome
Millenium, John Varley · 1983
Someone so dependent on medical support that their body is fused with a powered chair.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the powered chair that keeps a very frail body alive, which serves a small group of people.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and several equipment makers could build such a chair, so established makers of medical equipment collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Revitalizer Console.
Millenium, John Varley · 1983
An automated medical station that rebalances body chemistry and replenishes fluids.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Restoring fluids and body chemistry by machine saves ward staff some routine work, which is a convenience.
Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and clinics buy it; such a station is easy to copy, so established makers of hospital equipment collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Skull Alarm
Millenium, John Varley · 1983
An alarm implanted in the head that rouses the sleeper.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. An alarm inside the head does what a bedside clock does, so it is a convenience.
Who is paid. People would pay to have it fitted, and other firms could copy it, so established makers of medical devices collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wimp
Millenium, John Varley · 1983
A mindless human body cultivated as a spare physical vessel.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The name is of the body, so the thing judged is the growing of a spare body, which would serve as a source of replacement parts and belongs with replacement organs.
Who is paid. I assumed patients pay, mostly through insurers or health services; other laboratories could learn the method, so established tissue laboratories and hospitals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wimp Vault
Millenium, John Varley · 1983
A storage facility holding many spare cultivated bodies.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Storing spare bodies is a keeping service that follows from growing them, and the input marks it banned, so I assumed it is allowed only where the bodies are.
Who is paid. I assumed the laboratories that grow the bodies pay for the storage; any firm with cold premises could offer it, so established storage and laboratory firms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dermadisk
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
A skin patch delivering medication rapidly through the body's surface.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A patch is a handy way of taking a medicine, not a new medicine.
Who is paid. Patients would buy it, and any drug firm can put its medicines in a patch, so established drug makers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Image-Amps
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
Eye enhancements that amplify faint light so the user can see at night.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Seeing at night is an extra and not a cure, which sets it apart from eyes that give sight back.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and other device makers could copy it, so established implant makers and eye clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Intellectual Cell
Blood Music, Greg Bear · 1984
An engineered immune cell granted memory, reasoning and the ability to communicate.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Body cells that can think and talk to each other would be a new kind of medicine and of computing, if they stayed under control.
Who is paid. I assumed drug firms and laboratories buy them; a living cell multiplies, so anyone with a sample could grow more, and established drug makers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Joeboy (Muscle Grafts)
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
Surgery that grafts extra muscle onto a person's body.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Extra muscle by surgery appeals to a few people who want strength for work or show.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and other surgeons could learn it, so established clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Medically Applicable Biochip
Blood Music, Greg Bear · 1984
A living-tissue computer designed to work inside the body for treatment.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A living computer that treats from inside the body would be worth an industry in medicine.
Who is paid. Hospitals pay, and established drug and device firms collect because living tissue multiplies and a sample is enough to copy it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mirrorshades - Surgically Inset Glasses
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
Reflective lenses permanently set into the wearer's face over the eyes.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Lenses set into the face are a fashion choice for a few.
Who is paid. Wearers pay, and any clinic can fit them so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Nikon Eyes
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
Lab-grown eyes transplanted to replace or mend a person's natural ones.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Grown eyes that replace failing ones would be worth an industry.
Who is paid. Patients pay, with insurers behind them, and established tissue growers and eye clinics collect since others could grow them too.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Selected Melanin Boosting
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
A cosmetic treatment that raises skin pigment to produce a chosen tan.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A chosen tan is a matter of looks, not need.
Who is paid. People would pay for themselves, and I assumed many salons and makers of cosmetics could offer it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Toothbud Transplant
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
Implanted teeth grown to copy the bite of other animals.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Teeth shaped like those of other animals are a fashion, which sets them apart from plain replacement teeth.
Who is paid. Wearers would buy them, and I assumed many dental workshops could grow and fit them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
CCD Eyes
Stone Lives, Paul Di Filippo · 1985
Electronic replacement eyes built on camera sensors that offer a range of functions.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Giving sight back to blind people is worth an industry of its own, though most people would never need it.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and once the design was known other device makers could copy it, so established implant makers and eye clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Deceleration Paste
Schismatrix, Bruce Sterling · 1985
A remedy for the bodily harm caused by violent braking during spaceflight.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It serves only people who work in space or under unusual gravity, which is a niche.
Who is paid. I assumed employers and space carriers buy it for their crews; a new drug is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what little is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mnemotropin
Stone Lives, Paul Di Filippo · 1985
A medicine that helps the brain lay down lasting memories.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A medicine for lasting memory would be wanted by students, workers and the old.
Who is paid. People pay for the medicine, and the developer keeps the gain because a new medicine is protected from copying.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sentient Room
Schismatrix, Bruce Sterling · 1985
A chamber built of living tissue governed by a single person's mind.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A living room answering to one mind is a curiosity; I assumed a few wealthy owners would want one.
Who is paid. The owner would pay, and living tissue can be grown on by others, so established growers of such tissue collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Uterine Replicator
Shards of Honor, Lois McMaster Bujold · 1986
An artificial womb that carries a pregnancy outside the body.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Carrying a child outside the body would spare mothers the risks of pregnancy and open parenthood to people who cannot carry a child.
Who is paid. Would-be parents would pay, and other laboratories could copy the chamber once it worked, so established fertility clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Birthing egg
Nanotime, Bart Kosko · 1987
A chamber that merges two parents' genes and grows the resulting baby outside the body.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Carrying a child outside the body would spare mothers the risks of pregnancy and open parenthood to people who cannot carry a child, and the mixing of the parents' genes does not change the size.
Who is paid. Would-be parents would pay, and other laboratories could copy the chamber once it worked, so established fertility clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sculpted Teeth
Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988
Cosmetic reshaping of teeth for a fashionable smile.
already existed before the story (the 1900s)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Fashionable teeth are a matter of looks, not need.
Who is paid. People would pay for themselves, and any dentist could offer it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Steel Drugs
Islands in the Net, Bruce Sterling · 1988
A slang term in the story for fully synthetic recreational drugs.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Drugs taken for pleasure have many users, but the description promises nothing beyond what such drugs already give.
Who is paid. Users would buy them, most likely unlawfully, and such drugs can be made by many hands, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Mind and neurotechnology · 26
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Jumble-Box
Changeling, Roger Zelazny · 1980
A device in the story that scrambles a person's senses.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The story says only that it scrambles a person's senses; I assumed a tool for subduing someone, which is a narrow use.
Who is paid. I assumed a government pays, and the firms that already supply prisons and security services could copy it and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Communications Implant
Oath of Fealty, Jerry Pournelle (w/L. Niven · 1981
A surgically placed device connecting a person's mind straight to computer networks.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A computer link inside the head would do what pocket devices do now but faster and always on, worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay for the implant and the service, and the firms that already make devices and run networks could copy it and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cyborg Dolphin (Jones)
Johnny Mnemonic, William Gibson · 1981
A dolphin fitted with implants for military work and later repurposed.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A trained sea animal with implants does a few naval jobs that machines can also do.
Who is paid. A navy would pay, and the firms that already hold its contracts could do the work and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dictatel
God Emperor of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1981
A machine that writes down words the user merely thinks.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Writing by thought is a convenience, since keyboards and speech already do the job.
Who is paid. Ordinary people would get it inside gadgets they buy, and once it works it is easy to copy, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Heritable Memories Bloodline
The Time of the Dark, Barbara Hambly · 1982
A sorcerous practice binding particular memories to chosen family lines across generations.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a sorcerous family custom, not a thing that can be made and sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mindwipe
Mindkiller, Spider Robinson · 1982
A fictional procedure for erasing chosen memories, central to the story's intrigue.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Removing chosen memories would be an industry of its own for people haunted by what they recall.
Who is paid. People would pay to be rid of chosen memories, and the clinics that already treat the mind would collect, since the procedure could be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cerebral Microprocessors
Millenium, John Varley · 1983
Chips implanted in the brain to raise mental performance beyond natural limits.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Chips that lift the mind beyond its natural limits would change how most people work and learn.
Who is paid. People would pay to keep up with each other, and the chip makers and surgeons already in place could copy the design and collect; this goes further than the helmets and chairs that only sharpen ordinary thought.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ixian Probe
Heretics of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1984
A device that examines brain tissue finely enough to reveal stored memories.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Pulling memories out of an unwilling head would change how crimes are solved and secrets are kept.
Who is paid. A probe of brain tissue is done to a subject, so I assumed the buyers are police, courts and spy services, and the firms that already supply them could copy the machine and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Meat Puppet
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
A person whose body is run by software through a brain implant while their awareness is suspended.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. This names a person, but the implant behind it hires out a body while its owner is absent, a narrow trade where it is allowed at all.
Who is paid. Employers who were let to use it would pay, and a control implant could be copied by any maker, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Microsoft
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
Tiny plug-in brain cartridges that grant instant knowledge or abilities.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Plugging in knowledge or a skill at once would replace years of schooling and training for most people.
Who is paid. Learners and families would pay for it themselves, and once a first firm had built it others could copy it and many could supply the lessons, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Neural Cut Out Chip
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
A brain implant in the story that lets software override a person's body.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Letting software run a body serves the few employers who want obedient hands.
Who is paid. Employers would pay for it to control workers, and the chip could be copied by many makers, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Optic Television
Twenty Evocations, Bruce Sterling · 1984
An eye that shows distant broadcasts alongside the scene in front of it.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A screen in the eye itself is the same promise as other eye displays, a personal screen always in view, which is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. People pay to have it fitted, and the firms that already make displays and the clinics that fit implants collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pulse-Timer
Heretics of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1984
A timepiece that shows the hour inside the wearer's sight by acting on the brain.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A watch already tells the hour, so showing it inside the wearer's sight is a convenience.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and once it existed many makers could copy it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Shere
Heretics of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1984
A drug in the story that protects a person's memories from being extracted, even after death.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It only matters to people who hold secrets someone would probe for.
Who is paid. The keeper of the secret takes it willingly, so I assume people buy it for themselves, and a drug whose recipe is known can be made by many, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
SimStim
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
Playing one person's recorded or live sensations straight into another person's nervous system.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Feeling another person's sensations as your own would be an entertainment industry of its own.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and since the method could be copied the owners of the stories, stars and channels people already follow would collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sparkers
Niven's Laws, Larry Niven · 1984
A gadget giving an alien race small electric jolts they enjoy the way people enjoy a drink.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Judged by its own buyers, a mild jolt enjoyed as people enjoy a drink would be worth what the drinks trade is worth.
Who is paid. The users would buy it for themselves, and so simple a gadget could be made by many, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Biosoft
Count Zero, William Gibson · 1986
A life story you absorb as lived experience rather than read.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A life story lived as experience rather than read would be a new medium to rival film and books.
Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay for each experience, the machine could be copied, and the studios that own the stories and the names people know would collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dustplug
Count Zero, William Gibson · 1986
A protective cap for an empty brain-implant socket.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A cap for an empty socket is a trifle that only owners of the implant need.
Who is paid. Implant owners would buy it for very little, and anyone can make a cap, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Effective Human Implant Technology (EHIT)
Snake-Eyes, Tom Maddox · 1986
A computer link wired straight into a person's brain.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A computer link inside the head would do what pocket devices do now but faster and always on, worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay for the implant and the service, and the firms that already make devices and run networks could copy it and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Memory Biochip
Shards of Honor, Lois McMaster Bujold · 1986
An implant that lets its owner relive chosen memories on demand.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Reliving a chosen memory at will is a pleasure and a keepsake, like a better photograph album.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and once the implant existed others could copy it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Chiphead
Nanotime, Bart Kosko · 1987
A person whose natural brain has been replaced in function by an implanted machine.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. This names a person, but the implant behind it, a machine doing the work of a brain, would restore people whose brains had failed.
Who is paid. I judged the implant: patients and their families would pay, and the makers of medical implants could copy it and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Moddy
When Gravity Fails, George Alec Effinger · 1987
A plug-in brain cartridge that swaps in a chosen personality.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2080s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Trying on a chosen personality would be an industry of its own, part entertainment and part borrowed skill.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and since the method could be copied the owners of the stories, stars and channels people already follow would collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Brainlock
Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988
A coercive mind-control measure applied to prisoners in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.
Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Korsakov's
Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988
A coercive treatment in the story that keeps inmates docile.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.
Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Trode-Net
Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988
A mesh of electrodes worn on the head, named in the story without further detail.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The story gives no detail, so I judge it as the worn headgear for a brain link, an accessory to the link itself.
Who is paid. Users of the link would buy it for themselves, and a mesh of electrodes could be made by many, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Twist-Box
Wetware, Rudy Rucker · 1988
A recreational gadget that jumbles the senses for an altered experience.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A gadget that gives an altered state for fun would draw the kind of steady demand that drugs do.
Who is paid. Users would buy it for themselves, legal or not, and it is simple enough that many makers could supply it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Transport and mobility · 16
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Underground MagLev Train
Dream Park, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes · 1981
A levitating train running in low-pressure underground tubes to cut air resistance.
built in the 1980s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Fast capsules in sealed tubes would rival trains and aircraft on their routes, which changes the cost of travel between cities.
Who is paid. Governments pay for a public way of this size, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flying Car
Blade Runner, Ridley Scott · 1982
A vertical take-off police flying car.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Judged as the flying car of the story's city, which would be an industry of its own; the police craft described is only one use of it.
Who is paid. This one is a police craft, so the government pays, and the vehicle makers that already hold police fleet contracts collect because the craft can be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Trip-Box
Eye of Cat, Roger Zelazny · 1982
A booth that instantly moves a person to a distant place.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Instant travel from place to place would end most journeys by road, rail and air and change where most people live and work.
Who is paid. The carriers that run the network buy the machines and charge travellers for each trip, and since nothing described stops a second builder, the firms that already own sites, power and travellers' custom collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Smartcab
Cyberpunk!, Bruce Bethke · 1983
A driverless taxi called up from a handheld device.
built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A hired car with no driver to pay makes cab rides far cheaper, which would be an industry of its own.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the cab buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Speedcap
Millenium, John Varley · 1983
A passenger capsule that travels on a fast suborbital arc between distant points.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Crossing the world in a short arc above the air would be an industry of its own beside the airlines.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the rocket service buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bat Wings
Limits, Larry Niven · 1985
Wings strapped to a person for muscle-powered flying where gravity is weak.
built in the 1990s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Flying on muscle alone is a sport, and these wings work only where gravity is weak, so very few people could ever use them.
Who is paid. Hobbyists buy it, and any maker of light frames and wings could build it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Car Sound Tape
The Cat Who Walks Through Walls, Robert Heinlein · 1985
A recording played by a quiet vehicle to imitate engine noise.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Engine noise for a quiet vehicle is a small matter of taste or of warning people on foot.
Who is paid. Drivers pay for it, and a recording and a speaker can be made by anyone, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Millipede Train
Eon, Greg Bear · 1985
A train that travels without rails or any supporting guideway.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A train that needs no track saves the cost of laying it, but it is then close to a road convoy, so the gain is modest.
Who is paid. Hauliers and carriers buy it, and the established makers of heavy vehicles collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hushicopter
Fantastic Voyage II: Destination Brain, Isaac Asimov · 1987
A helicopter that flies almost without sound.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Silence would let helicopters work in places that now refuse them, but they would still be costly to fly, so I judge it a better helicopter rather than a new industry.
Who is paid. Operators and police forces buy it, and the established helicopter builders collect once the quieting method is known.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Smart Lanes
Nanotime, Bart Kosko · 1987
Roads that watch, steer and regulate the vehicles on them.
built in the 2000s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Roads that steer the cars on them would cut crashes and jams, which changes the cost of road travel.
Who is paid. Governments pay for the roads, and the builders and electronics firms that already hold road contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Transport Walkers
A Little Further Up The Fox..., George M. Ewing · 1987
Single-rider vehicles that walk on many legs.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A walking vehicle for a lone rider goes where wheels cannot, which is a niche beside cars and bikes.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and many workshops could build it once it is shown to work, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Air-Taxi
Prelude to Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1988
A self-flying cab that ferries passengers through the air.
built in the 2020s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Hired flight across a city, working as promised, would be an industry of its own beside road cabs.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the air cab buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hovercraft
Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988
A vehicle that rides on a layer of pressurised air.
already existed before the story (the 1950s)
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Riding on a cushion of air suits marsh, shallows and ice but is noisier and thirstier than wheels elsewhere, so it stays a niche.
Who is paid. Ferry and hire operators buy it, and many builders can make an air cushion craft, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
People-Mover
Wetware, Rudy Rucker · 1988
An outdoor fixed transit system where riders travel seated.
already existed before the story (the 1950s)
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A seated ride on a fixed outdoor route serves a few districts, airports and fairgrounds.
Who is paid. I assume a city or public body pays for the line, and the builders that already hold transit contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Farcaster
Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989
A doorway allowing cheap, instant passage between worlds around distant stars.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Cheap instant passage between worlds would open new land and trade to a large share of humanity.
Who is paid. I assume carriers and traders pay to send people and goods through, and once a gate is built others could build more, so the large builders and carriers that already own the ports and the customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hawking Mat
Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989
A patterned flying carpet woven with shielded fibres.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A flying carpet that carries its rider wherever they please, working as promised, would be an industry of its own as the motorbike is; the description gives no limit on range or weather, so I assume there is no such limit.
Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Energy and power · 1
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Shipstone
Friday, Robert Heinlein · 1982
A compact factory-made power cell holding an enormous store of energy.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A cheap compact cell holding an enormous store of energy would change how nearly everything is powered and moved.
Who is paid. Firms of every kind buy it, assumed here to be the largest buyers, and in the story the maker keeps the method secret so nobody can copy it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Materials, manufacturing and construction · 12
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Absolute Black
Restaurant at the End of the Universe, Douglas Adams · 1980
A coating so dark it swallows essentially every ray of light striking it.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A perfectly dark coating helps telescopes, cameras and a few art and design uses, which is a niche.
Who is paid. Instrument makers buy it, and a coating can be studied and matched by many paint and chemical firms, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Fuligin
The Shadow of the Torturer, Gene Wolfe · 1980
A fabric dye of a shade deeper than ordinary black.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A dye darker than black is a matter of fashion and ceremony, which is a niche.
Who is paid. Cloth makers buy it, and a dye can be studied and matched by many chemical firms, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mechanical Mole
Oath of Fealty, Jerry Pournelle (w/L. Niven · 1981
A self-contained boring machine that cuts large tunnels.
already existed before the story (the 1970s)
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Cheap fast tunnelling would change the cost of railways, roads, mines and pipes.
Who is paid. Construction and mining firms buy it, and heavy-machine makers with plants and service crews can each build one, so they collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ridulian Crystal Sheets
God Emperor of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1981
Extremely strong crystalline panes of remarkable thinness.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Extremely strong panes of great thinness would change glazing, screens and light structures.
Who is paid. Builders and manufacturers buy them, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Skinsuit
Millenium, John Varley · 1983
A garment worn over the whole body that acts as a second, synthetic skin.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A whole-body second skin is special clothing for a few uses.
Who is paid. People buy it to wear, I assume, and the garment can be copied, so clothing firms with brands and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Biological Circuit Fabrication
The Official Handbook of the Marvel Universe, Author Unknown · 1984
Growing electronic circuitry through living biological processes.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Growing circuits in place of building them in costly plants would change the cost of electronics.
Who is paid. Device makers buy the circuits, and once the method spreads the electronics firms with designs and customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mimetic Polycarbon Suit
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
Fabric that shifts its colour and pattern to show stored pictures or what a camera sees.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Cloth that shows pictures is a fashion and display novelty; it shows images, so I judged it as display clothing and not as hiding gear.
Who is paid. People buy it to wear, assuming it is sold openly, and the cloth can be copied, so clothing brands with shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Shiftsuit
Matadora, Steve Perry · 1986
Gear that alters its look to match its surroundings and hide the wearer.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Gear that blends into its surroundings helps soldiers and hunters, and it only blends in without making the wearer vanish.
Who is paid. Armies pay, assuming they are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold military supply contracts make it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Superacid
Nanotime, Bart Kosko · 1987
Programmable solvents that dissolve chosen substances while leaving others untouched.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Solvents that dissolve only chosen substances would change mining, recycling and chemical making.
Who is paid. Industrial firms buy them, and once the method is known the big chemical firms with plants and customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flickercladding
Wetware, Rudy Rucker · 1988
A robot skin that can soak up light or glow as required.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A skin that soaks up light or glows gives machines power and display, which is a feature and not an industry.
Who is paid. Robot makers buy it, and once understood many materials firms could make such a skin.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Inert Resin
Islands in the Net, Bruce Sterling · 1988
A protective coating that frees seaside and offshore structures from upkeep.
already existed before the story (the 1960s)
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A coating that truly ends upkeep on seaside and offshore structures, beyond what today's coatings do, would remove a heavy cost for ports, rigs and ships.
Who is paid. Owners of ports, rigs and ships buy it, and once matched by rivals the established coating firms that already supply them collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Lunar Concrete
Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988
Building material made chiefly from regolith scooped off the Moon.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Concrete from Moon soil matters only to those building on the Moon, which is a niche.
Who is paid. I assumed space agencies pay for most Moon building, and their usual contractors can all mix it from soil lying free.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Weapons and warfare · 15
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wunderland Treatymaker
Ringworld Engineers, Larry Niven · 1980
A fictional weapon adapted from a mining tool and used in a conflict in the story.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Assuming the mining tool is one that destroys rock outright, a weapon made from it would leave no armour or wall able to protect.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and assuming rival makers learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
AM-280 Needle Rifle
A Matter For Men, David Gerrold · 1983
A fictional firearm used in the story's conflict.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It is one more kind of firearm, a modest step over the guns armies already carry.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Agony Box
Heretics of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1984
An interrogation device in the story that inflicts pain without lasting injury.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a torture device, which no one may lawfully buy.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Contact Venom
Twenty Evocations, Bruce Sterling · 1984
A fictional poison used as a weapon in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a poison made for killing people, which no one may lawfully buy.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Electromagnetic Shotgun
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
A weapon kept on hand to disable a runaway machine intelligence.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A weapon kept ready to shut down a runaway machine mind is a safety device few sites need.
Who is paid. Firms running such machines buy it as a precaution, and it is simple enough for many to make.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Razorgirl
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
A surgical body modification in the story that gives a person concealed built-in weapons.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A weapon built into the body appeals to a few bodyguards, soldiers and enthusiasts and stays a niche.
Who is paid. Assuming it is legal to buy as in the story, individuals pay for themselves, and the clinics and surgeons already able to do such work collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flying Crowbars
Footfall, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1985
Orbital bombardment weapons used by invaders in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Striking any point on the ground from orbit would be a major arm of a great power's forces.
Who is paid. Governments pay, and the rocket and arms firms that already launch and build for them would win the work, since the idea itself is simple.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Self-Propelled Road Mine
Runaway, Michael Crichton · 1985
A fictional mobile explosive weapon used against vehicles in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A mine that moves to find its target is a cleverer version of an old munition and stays a niche in an army's stores.
Who is paid. Armies pay, and such a device is simple to copy, so the munitions makers that already hold supply contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Smart Bullet
Runaway, Michael Crichton · 1985
A fictional guided projectile weapon in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Munitions that steer themselves onto a target make each shot count and are a mainstay of what modern armies buy.
Who is paid. Armies pay, and since many engineering firms can build guidance, the missile and ammunition makers that already hold supply contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Spetsdöd
The Man Who Never Missed, Steve Perry · 1985
A fictional firearm integrated with its user's body in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A weapon built into the body appeals to a few bodyguards, soldiers and enthusiasts and stays a niche.
Who is paid. Assuming it is legal to buy as in the story, individuals pay for themselves, and the clinics and surgeons already able to do such work collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Gun
Aliens, Alan Dean Foster · 1986
An automated sentry weapon from a science fiction film.
already existed before the story (the 1950s)
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A gun that guards a spot by itself saves some sentries but fills a narrow job within an army's kit.
Who is paid. Armies and border forces pay, and it is easy to copy from known parts, so the arms makers already supplying them collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Slamhound
Count Zero, William Gibson · 1986
A fictional autonomous killing device used in the story's plot.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A machine that hunts and kills without a person steering it would let armies fight with far fewer soldiers, which changes what war costs.
Who is paid. Assuming lawful sale only to armies and police, governments pay, and since the parts are widely made, the defence suppliers with existing contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hostage Gas
The Uplift War, David Brin · 1987
A fictional chemical weapon used to coerce a planet's population in the story.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a chemical weapon, which no state or person may lawfully buy or use.
Who is paid. Chemical weapons are outlawed for all, so nothing is sold and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ice Dart
Nanotime, Bart Kosko · 1987
A plot device in a locked-room mystery where the weapon vanishes afterward.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A dart of ice that melts away after use is a tool for a handful of secret killings.
Who is paid. Assuming spy services are the only lawful buyers, they pay for the few they need, and anyone can freeze a dart.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Kamikaze Andy
Tekwar, William Shatner · 1989
A fictional android used for targeted killings in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A machine built for single secret killings serves only a few covert services, which makes it a niche.
Who is paid. Secret services pay, and it is a small variant of machines the existing arms and robot makers already build, so they collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Surveillance, identity and control · 15
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Deep-Radar
Ringworld Engineers, Larry Niven · 1980
A sensor that sees inside very large bodies, even through whole mountains.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Measuring and mapping what cannot be seen by eye changes the costs of travel, mapping and digging, an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Transport, mapping and mining firms buy it, and it can be copied, so established instrument makers with factories and customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tracer-Bird
Changeling, Roger Zelazny · 1980
A mechanical bird built as an early spy drone.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A mechanical bird that spies from the air changes what police and spy services can see.
Who is paid. Spy and police services pay, and once made it can be copied, so the firms already supplying such services collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Monitored In-Home Security Camera
Oath of Fealty, Jerry Pournelle (w/L. Niven · 1981
Indoor home cameras watched by an outside security service.
already existed before the story (the 1970s)
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Having outsiders watch the home for trouble is the core of a home security industry, unlike defences that merely add to an alarm.
Who is paid. Households pay a regular fee, and cameras are easy to copy, so the security firms with watch rooms and trusted brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hunter Program
Mindkiller, Spider Robinson · 1982
Software that finds inhabited homes by watching their power consumption.
built in the 1980s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Spotting lived-in homes from their power use is a narrow trick for investigators.
Who is paid. Assuming police are the users, they pay, and such software is simple to write, so the firms already supplying police systems collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Micro Label
Blade Runner, Ridley Scott · 1982
An identifying mark too tiny to read without strong magnification.
built in the 1980s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A mark too small to see helps makers prove a product is theirs, a niche use.
Who is paid. Manufacturers pay to mark their goods, and many firms can do such marking so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Public Eye
Friday, Robert Heinlein · 1982
A hovering camera that drifts freely to watch public spaces.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A drifting camera over public spaces changes what police can see, like the other flying watchers.
Who is paid. Spy and police services pay, and once made it can be copied, so the firms already supplying such services collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Voight-Kampff Test
Blade Runner, Ridley Scott · 1982
An interview-based examination used to tell humans apart from manufactured people.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Telling people from manufactured copies matters only to the few who hunt such copies.
Who is paid. Police forces pay, and gear sold to them goes through the firms that already hold their supply contracts.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
People-Sorter
Millenium, John Varley · 1983
A machine that rapidly processes and classifies large crowds of people.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Sorting large crowds quickly helps at borders, camps and checkpoints, which is a niche.
Who is paid. Assumes a state runs it at borders and checkpoints; the firms already supplying such posts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Implanted Microprocessor Monitor
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
Chips placed in employees' bodies to enforce obedience to corporate policy.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Chips that force workers to obey are forbidden, so no one at all may buy or use them.
Who is paid. Nothing is lawfully sold, so no one pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Life-shield Blanket
Heretics of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1984
A cover that hides a living person from standard life-sign sensors.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Hiding a body from life-sign sensors matters only to soldiers and agents, a niche.
Who is paid. Armies pay, and it could be copied once made, so the firms already holding army supply contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Privacy Screen
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
A device that blocks every kind of electronic eavesdropping around the people inside.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Blocking every kind of electronic listening protects a private talk, which is a niche.
Who is paid. Firms with secrets to keep buy it, and many makers could build such a blocker so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dornier
Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988
A compact spy drone that can hold position in the air.
built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Cheap flying watchers change the cost of policing, border watch and scouting enough to be an industry of their own.
Who is paid. Police forces and armies pay, and since many firms can build such craft the money goes to those already holding security and defence supply contracts.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
SIN (Single Identification Number)
Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988
One universal number identifying each citizen.
built in 2023, 35 years after it was imagined
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A single number for each citizen is an identity scheme, useful to the state that runs it but simple.
Who is paid. Whoever issues the credential pays, assumed here to be a state, and the firms that already make official papers and registers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Credit Wake
Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989
The digital trail left by a person's purchases and payments online.
already existed before the story (the 1950s)
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. The trail left by purchases is a by-product of paying, not a technology anyone buys.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold as such, so no one pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Universal Card
Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989
One gadget that stands in for all of a person's payment and identification cards.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. One gadget in place of several cards is a convenience, since the cards it stands in for already do the paying and proving.
Who is paid. Whoever issues it pays, assumed here to be banks more than the state, and the gadget is easy to copy, so the firms that already run payment networks and make cards collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Food, agriculture and environment · 7
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Iceberg Water Tub
Oath of Fealty, Jerry Pournelle (w/L. Niven · 1981
A giant container wrapped around a towed iceberg to deliver fresh water.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Fresh water delivered by iceberg could supply dry coastal cities, which is a whole water business.
Who is paid. City water authorities pay, and I assumed the towing can be copied, so the firms that already own big tugs and ports collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Genetically Tailored Trees
Eye of Cat, Roger Zelazny · 1982
Trees engineered to make and store usable oil in quantity.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Trees that make usable oil in quantity would change the costs of the fuel and oil trade.
Who is paid. Planters and mills buy the trees, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the nurseries and forestry firms that already hold stock, land and sales channels collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vat Grown Meat
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
Animal flesh for eating cultivated in a vessel instead of on a living creature.
built in the 2020s, about 40 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Meat without animals at a low price would reshape the whole meat trade, though it replaces one food and not the whole diet.
Who is paid. Shoppers pay, and once the method is known many firms can run tanks, so the meat packers and food brands that already reach the shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dainties
Prelude to Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1988
Bite-sized flavour morsels cultivated artificially as treats.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Cultivated flavour morsels are a treat, a pleasant extra and not a staple.
Who is paid. Households buy them, and I assumed the growing method is easy to copy, so the confectionery brands with shop space collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Microfarm
Prelude to Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1988
Growing crops without dirt, feeding plants through water or other media instead.
built in the 2010s, about 30 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Growing crops without soil lets food be raised without good land, which is an industry of its own even though it never replaced fields.
Who is paid. Households buy the food grown this way, and the method is well known and needs no good land, so any grower can use it and no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Scop
Islands in the Net, Bruce Sterling · 1988
Edible protein cultivated from microbes in large tanks.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A cheap protein grown in tanks would lower the cost of one part of the diet, as tank meat would, but the description does not make it the staple people live on.
Who is paid. Households buy it inside ordinary food, and tanks of microbes are easy to copy, so the food makers with plants and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Week Trees
Wetware, Rudy Rucker · 1988
Engineered miniature trees that mature in days rather than generations.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Tiny trees that mature in days are an ornament; too small for timber, so I assumed they are bought for looks.
Who is paid. People buy them for the home or garden, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the nurseries and garden shops that already hold stock and shelves collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Home and everyday life · 24
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Watercouch
Beyond the Blue Event Horizon, Frederik Pohl · 1980
A sofa using a water bladder for cushioning.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A sofa cushioned with water is a matter of comfort and taste.
Who is paid. Households buy it and any furniture maker can produce it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dream Park
Dream Park, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes · 1981
A holiday resort where guests act as characters inside elaborate staged adventures.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A resort where guests live inside a staged adventure would be a holiday industry of its own.
Who is paid. Holidaymakers pay, and the staging can be copied, so the firms that already own resort land, well-loved stories and trusted names collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gravity Whip
Dream Park, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes · 1981
An amusement ride designed to give passengers moments of weightlessness.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A moment of weightlessness on a ride is a thrill for visitors.
Who is paid. Amusement parks buy the ride, and any ride builder could copy the design, so the parks and their visitors keep the gain.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mattress Sleep Sensor
Dream Park, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes · 1981
A bed sensor that tracks sleep and nudges the sleeper to get up.
built in the 2000s, about 20 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Tracking sleep and nudging the sleeper awake is a mild convenience.
Who is paid. Households buy it and many firms can make a bed sensor, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sleeve Watch
Dream Park, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes · 1981
A timepiece display printed temporarily onto a chosen piece of clothing.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A watch face printed for a while on a sleeve is a novelty way to tell the time.
Who is paid. Households buy it and many firms could copy it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Todos Santos Independency
Oath of Fealty, Jerry Pournelle (w/L. Niven · 1981
An entire self-governing town housed within one enormous building.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A whole town inside a building is a new way of housing and serving a community, and its self-rule changes who governs, not what is sold.
Who is paid. Residents buy or lease the homes and shops inside, as they would in any large development, and since others could put up such a structure the developers and landowners who already hold the sites collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
UHF Shower
Eye of Cat, Roger Zelazny · 1982
A bathing booth that cleans the body with radio waves in place of water.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A booth that cleans the body with no water at all would cut what homes spend on water and plumbing, which is more than a comfort.
Who is paid. Households buy it, and I assumed it can be copied, so the firms that already make and fit bathroom fixtures collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Luggage
The Color of Magic, Terry Pratchett · 1983
A travel chest made of thinking wood that follows its owner anywhere.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A trunk that follows you everywhere is a great convenience for travellers, but it is still luggage.
Who is paid. Travellers buy it, and I assume the thinking wood is rare and cannot be made by others, so whoever holds that wood keeps what is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Time Capsule
Millenium, John Varley · 1983
A sealed, weatherproof metal block for leaving messages to be read far in the future.
built since, date unclear
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A sealed block for messages to the far future is a keepsake.
Who is paid. Households and clubs buy it and any metalworker can make it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Coffin Rack Capsule Hotel
The Science Fiction Yearbook (ed. Jerry Pournelle), William Gibson · 1984
Lodgings made of tiny sleeping pods stacked in rows.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A cheap pod to sleep in suits travellers who want only a bed.
Who is paid. Travellers pay by the night, and the pods are easy to copy, so the owners of well-placed city buildings collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flash Suit
Ender's Game, Orson Scott Card · 1985
A garment worn in mock combat drills that registers when the wearer is tagged.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A suit that records hits makes practice battles fairer, which serves trainers and players only.
Who is paid. In the story an army school uses it for drills, so the state pays, and the firms that already hold contracts for training gear collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Microwave Beamer
Limits, Larry Niven · 1985
A handheld tool that heats food quickly with radio-frequency energy.
already existed before the story (1947)
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Heating food in moments with radio waves is worth an industry of its own, here in a handheld form.
Who is paid. Households buy it, and unlike a full oven from the established appliance makers this is a handheld gadget that many firms could make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Reactive Walls
Freezone, John Shirley · 1985
Nightclub wall surfaces that respond visually to the music playing.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Walls that move with the music are decoration for a venue.
Who is paid. Club owners buy them and many lighting firms can supply them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Resting Pits
Limits, Larry Niven · 1985
Resting places named in the story whose function is not described.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The story names these resting places without saying what they do, so I assumed plain places to rest.
Who is paid. I assumed households or travellers pay and that anyone could build them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sleep Tube
Solstice, James Patrick Kelly · 1985
A compact cylindrical pod used as a place to sleep and live.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A pod to sleep and live in is cheap lodging for those who will accept little space.
Who is paid. Lodgers pay by the stay, and since pods are easy to copy those who already own the buildings and sites collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Subdermal Microchannels
Stone Lives, Paul Di Filippo · 1985
Tiny channels under the skin that create glowing decorative patterns.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Glowing patterns under the skin are body decoration for those who want it.
Who is paid. Households pay for it, and I assumed many studios or clinics could offer it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tube Rack
Solstice, James Patrick Kelly · 1985
Lodgings formed from stacked cylindrical sleeping pods.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Stacked sleeping pods are cheap lodging for those who will accept little space.
Who is paid. Lodgers pay by the stay, and since pods are easy to copy those who already own the buildings and sites collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cleaning Machine Warren
Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988
A storage nook where cleaning robots rest when idle.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A cupboard where cleaning robots wait is a minor building detail.
Who is paid. Home owners pay for it as part of the house, and any builder can make a storage nook.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Digital Running Shoes
Islands in the Net, Bruce Sterling · 1988
Sneakers with a built-in display of the runner's performance.
built in 2006, 18 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Seeing your pace on your shoe is a nicety for keen runners.
Who is paid. Runners buy them, and the display is easy to add, so any of the many shoe makers can sell them and no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Head-Molding Skincaps
Prelude to Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1988
A snug cap worn on the scalp that leaves the head smooth and hairless without a razor.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A cap that leaves the scalp smooth replaces the razor for those who want a bare head.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and I assume other makers could copy the cap once it was on sale.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Heartshirt
Wetware, Rudy Rucker · 1988
A garment that picks up its wearer's heartbeat and shows it as changing colours.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A shirt that shows your heartbeat in colour is a fashion novelty.
Who is paid. Wearers buy it, and the sensor and the colour-changing cloth could be put together by many clothing makers.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
High Tech Trash Can
Islands in the Net, Bruce Sterling · 1988
A smarter bin that sorts, compacts or processes household rubbish.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A bin that sorts and squashes rubbish saves a household a small chore.
Who is paid. Households buy it, and many appliance makers could build it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Suit Designer
Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988
A clothing design role or tool named in the story without further detail.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The story gives no detail, so I assumed a tool or service for designing clothes, which is a niche.
Who is paid. I assumed households pay for the clothes and that many designers could offer the same, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Free-fall Couch
Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989
A piece of furniture that gives the feeling of floating weightless.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The feeling of floating is a pleasant novelty for rest.
Who is paid. People buy it for the home, and I assume other furniture makers could copy it once it had been seen.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Exotic physics · 8
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Timepress
Millenium, John Varley · 1983
A device that speeds up the passage of time inside a bounded zone.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Speeding up time in a zone would shorten growing, ageing, curing and testing across several trades.
Who is paid. Farms, factories and laboratories would buy it, and with many makers able to copy it no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Twonky
Millenium, John Varley · 1983
An object from the future stranded in the past whose discovery could break causality.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A stray object that could break cause and effect is a hazard, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ghost Trap
Ghostbusters, Harold Ramis · 1984
A box for catching and briefly holding captured spirits.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. If ghosts were real, catching them would be a niche service like pest control.
Who is paid. Removal firms would buy the boxes, and a simple box could be made by many once the method was out.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
No-Globe
Heretics of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1984
A large hidden living sphere shielded from every known form of detection.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A dwelling hidden from every kind of detection would be prized for secret bases and safe refuges.
Who is paid. Governments would pay for it, with a few very rich buyers besides, and the firms that already hold defence contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Nullentropy Bin
Heretics of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1984
A storage compartment where decay and disorder are frozen.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Stopping time inside a box would end spoilage and hold the badly hurt until help comes, assuming a container of household or shop size.
Who is paid. Homes, shops and hospitals would buy it like a refrigerator, and since it could be copied the appliance makers with factories and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Planck Juice
Master of Space and Time, Rudy Rucker · 1984
A featureless primordial medium of pure force below the level of quarks.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A raw medium beneath all matter is a feature of nature in the story, and the description gives no use anyone could put it to.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Proton Pack
Ghostbusters, Harold Ramis · 1984
A backpack particle accelerator used to snare supernatural beings in a comedy film.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Catching ghosts is a niche service even assuming there are ghosts to catch.
Who is paid. Small removal firms would buy the packs, and with many makers able to copy them no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gravitic Lift
Prelude to Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1988
An elevator car that rises without cables or any apparent support.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It does the job cabled lifts already do, a little more neatly.
Who is paid. Building owners would pay, and the firms that already fit and service lifts would sell it once the method was known.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Society and economy · 11
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
International Fantasy Gaming Society (IFGS)
Dream Park, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes · 1981
A club that organises live-action role-playing adventures.
already existed before the story (the 1970s)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A club for live adventure games is a hobby.
Who is paid. Players pay to take part, and anyone can start such a club.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Post Office
Millenium, John Varley · 1983
A secure store for messages that visitors from the future leave behind in the past.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A safe store for messages is a small service; I assumed the travel through time already exists.
Who is paid. I assumed whoever runs the journeys pays for the store, and anyone can keep a vault, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Spark Plug (Systematician)
Dream Thief, Stephen Lawhead · 1983
A generalist who synthesises insights drawn from many unrelated fields.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A generalist who joins up findings across fields is a useful but niche adviser.
Who is paid. Firms and laboratories hire them, and the skill lies in people whom anyone can train.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flexitime
Master of Space and Time, Rudy Rucker · 1984
A workplace scheme that signals when an employee has completed their required hours.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A signal that the day's hours are done is a small office convenience.
Who is paid. Employers pay, and any maker of office clocks or software can supply it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
House Records Archivist
Heretics of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1984
A specialist who cross-references material inside a religious order's vast archive.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A specialist who links records in one archive is a niche skill.
Who is paid. The body that owns the archive pays, which I count as a business, and anyone can train for the work.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Panther Modern
Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984
A gang of hired digital saboteurs in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Hired sabotage is a crime that no one may lawfully buy; I assumed a forbidden trade counts as nothing sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Freezone
Freezone, John Shirley · 1985
An enormous man-made floating island sited beyond any nation's territorial waters.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A floating city outside every nation's law would draw enough trade to be an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Firms pay for space on an island outside any nation's law, and since anyone with the means could float a rival, the shipyards and marine builders able to make such platforms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Threat Team (of sf writers)
Footfall, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1985
Assembling speculative fiction authors to anticipate an unknown danger.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A panel of storytellers imagining dangers is a small advisory service.
Who is paid. The government pays their fees, and any group of writers could be gathered.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Boomer Park
Nanotime, Bart Kosko · 1987
A vast retirement community for an ageing generation.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A vast retirement town is housing and care for a whole generation, worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Retired people pay to live there, and since any builder can copy it, those who already own the land collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bank Chip
Mona Lisa Overdrive, William Gibson · 1988
A chip-based payment card with its own onboard intelligence.
already existed before the story (the 1970s)
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Paying without cash is worth an industry of its own, and a card with a clever chip is one form of it.
Who is paid. Shops and banks pay fees on each sale, and since the card or chip itself is easy to copy, the banks and payment networks that already hold people's accounts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Internet Addiction
Hyperion, Dan Simmons · 1989
Compulsive dependence on being connected to computer networks and data feeds.
built in the 1990s, about 10 years after it was imagined
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A compulsion is a harm, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.