The technologies stories first imagined in this decade, by kind, with whether each has been built since and who would keep the profit.
By kind of technology
Space travel and habitats · 4
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robofish (Mitsubishi Robot Turbot)
Slow Life, Michael Swanwick · 2002
A robot swimmer that samples liquid seas on distant moons.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A robot that samples the seas of distant moons gathers knowledge, which is valuable but which nobody buys as a product.
Who is paid. The findings cannot be charged for, so a government pays, and the builders that already hold science contracts supply it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Starwisp
Accelerando, Charles Stross · 2005
A tiny probe pushed to other stars by light on a thin sail.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A tiny probe sent to another star brings back knowledge, with nothing to sell from it.
Who is paid. Nobody could be charged for such a mission, so a government pays the probe builders that already hold such contracts.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Anemopter
Finisterra, David Moles · 2007
An aircraft designed to cruise inside the thick air of a gas giant world.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. An aircraft for the skies of a giant planet serves a few expeditions, a niche.
Who is paid. No user is named, so it is assumed that firms working on other worlds buy it like other working gear, and established aircraft builders could all make it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sky-Bike
The Last Theorem, Arthur C. Clarke (w/Pohl · 2008
A pedal-driven flying bike used for sport in low lunar gravity.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A pedal flyer for sport where things weigh little is a pastime for settlers on the Moon.
Who is paid. Settlers buy it for themselves, and a light pedal machine is something many workshops could make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Computing, AI and virtual worlds · 39
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Artificial Intelligence Device (AID)
A Hymn Before Battle, John Ringo · 2000
A handheld assistant that answers soldiers' questions using artificial intelligence.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. An assistant that answers any soldier's question would change how an army trains and fights.
Who is paid. The army pays, and once such assistants exist the firms that already hold its supply contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Datapack
Dune: House Harkonnen, Brian Herbert · 2001
A small portable storage unit for information.
built in the 2000s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Small, cheap ways of keeping and carrying data are needed by every computer user and make an industry of their own.
Who is paid. Firms and their customers buy it in bulk, the idea is easy to copy, and those who already own the costly factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Smart Contact Lenses
Fast Times At Fairmont High, Vernor Vinge · 2001
Contact lenses that show computer images over normal vision.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Unlike other worn computers, a private display in front of the eyes could replace most other screens, which is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and since rivals can copy the design, the firms that already own gadget factories, shops and well-known names collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wearables
Fast Times At Fairmont High, Vernor Vinge · 2001
Computers built into the clothes and accessories people wear.
already existed before the story (the 1960s)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Computers worn on the body are another shape of the one people already carry, so they are a convenience.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy them, and since they are easy to copy, the firms that already own gadget factories and well-known names collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
AI-Based Hiring and Firing
Manna, Marshall Brain · 2002
Software that decides which workers a company takes on and lets go.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Choosing and dismissing staff by software would change the cost of running every large employer.
Who is paid. Employers pay, the software is easy to copy, and firms that already hold companies' staff records collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Data Tiles
Minority Report (Movie), Steven Spielberg · 2002
See-through glass slides that carry files and software between machines.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Small, cheap ways of keeping and carrying data are needed by every computer user and make an industry of their own.
Who is paid. Firms and their customers buy it in bulk, the idea is easy to copy, and those who already own the costly factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Folding Computer Terminal
The Merchants of Souls, John Barnes · 2002
A pocket computer that folds up small.
built in the 2010s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Folding is a convenience added to a pocket computer people would own anyway, and I judged the folding rather than the pocket computer itself.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and the firms that already make and sell pocket computers add the feature and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Manna
Manna, Marshall Brain · 2002
A program that runs a restaurant or shop on its own, directing staff through every task.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A program that manages a shop or restaurant by itself removes the cost of managers across retail and food service.
Who is paid. The shop owners buy it, and management software is assumed easy for many firms to write, so the shops keep the saving.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wired Glove Interface Display
Minority Report (Movie), Steven Spielberg · 2002
A big screen whose contents a user moves around with hand gestures made in sensor gloves.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Moving things on a big screen with gloved hands is a showy way to sort information and no faster than simpler tools.
Who is paid. Police and other offices would buy it, and many firms can make the gloves and screen, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Workplace Distancing
Manna, Marshall Brain · 2002
Management software that schedules staff so colleagues never meet during shifts.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Software that sets shifts so staff never meet is a narrow management tool.
Who is paid. Employers buy it, and any software firm can write a scheduling program, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Email Shirt
Oryx and Crake, Margaret Atwood · 2003
Clothing with a built-in screen that displays incoming messages.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Putting a small computer into something worn is a convenience beside the pocket computer people already carry.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, it is easy to copy, and firms with known brands in gadgets or clothing collect what little is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Handipad
Wyrmhole, Jay Caselberg · 2003
A handheld electronic slate for looking things up.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A handheld slate for looking anything up, which I assume draws on a network, is the pocket computer under another name and changes how most people find things out.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy one each, many firms can make them, and those with the factories, brands and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ideator
Darwin's Children, Greg Bear · 2003
A computer tool for modelling and identifying genes and proteins.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A tool that models genes and proteins well would cut the cost and time of finding new medicines.
Who is paid. Drug and farming firms buy it, and I assume the methods spread among those who build such tools, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Touch Tablet
Darwin's Children, Greg Bear · 2003
A wireless slate computer operated by touch.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A wireless slate worked by touch is a networked computer in the hand, which I assume is of broad use, and that changes how most people talk, shop, work and find things out.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy one each, many firms can make them, and those with the factories, brands and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Emissarial Projection
The Algebraist, Iain M Banks · 2004
An artificial envoy that negotiates and speaks on behalf of a government.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A stand-in that speaks for a state saves envoys' travel but serves very few buyers.
Who is paid. Governments pay, and once thinking machines exist such an envoy is easy to set up, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Memory Diamond
Iron Sunrise, Charles Stross · 2004
Data storage packed into the atomic lattice of a diamond.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Storing data atom by atom would shrink the cost of keeping records for every firm that holds them.
Who is paid. Firms that store data buy it, the way of making it is assumed to be copied in time, and those who already own the costly factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Muscle Sensor Interface
The Algebraist, Iain M Banks · 2004
A controller that reads muscle signals to steer what a screen shows.
already existed before the story (the 1900s)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A new way to give a computer its orders is a convenience and not a new capability.
Who is paid. People buy it as an accessory to machines they already own, and any electronics firm can make one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Computational Textile
Pushing Ice, Alastair Reynolds · 2005
Cloth woven with sensors and circuits so garments can compute.
built in the 2010s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Putting a small computer into something worn is a convenience beside the pocket computer people already carry.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, it is easy to copy, and firms with known brands in gadgets or clothing collect what little is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Computronium
Accelerando, Charles Stross · 2005
Matter arranged throughout to act as the densest possible computer.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. The densest computer that matter allows would change the cost of all computing.
Who is paid. Firms that need computing pay, and I assume others could learn to make such matter in time, so the firms that already sell computing to every business collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Flexy (or Flexies)
Pushing Ice, Alastair Reynolds · 2005
A bendable, almost organic computer that can be folded or rolled.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Folding or bending is a convenience added to a pocket computer people would own anyway.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and the firms that already make and sell pocket computers add the feature and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Lobster AI
Accelerando, Charles Stross · 2005
An artificial mind made by copying the nervous system of a crustacean.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A mind copied from a crustacean is far short of a person's and is assumed useful only for narrow control jobs.
Who is paid. Firms would buy it for such jobs, and once one nervous system had been copied I assume others could do the same, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Browser Paper
Rainbows End, Vernor Vinge · 2006
A paper-like sheet that works as a web-connected screen.
built in the 2010s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A screen as thin and light as paper is a general display that could replace print and fixed sets, which changes the costs of a whole industry.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and the firms that already make and sell pocket computers add the feature and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Camera Tunnel
Rainbows End, Vernor Vinge · 2006
A camera rig that photographs scraps of paper so software can rebuild the pages.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Rebuilding pages from scraps serves a few libraries, archives and investigators.
Who is paid. Those bodies pay, and cameras and matching software are easy to assemble, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Command Bracelet
Sagramanda, Alan Dean Foster · 2006
A wrist-worn gadget with many built-in functions.
built in the 2010s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Putting a small computer into something worn is a convenience beside the pocket computer people already carry.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, it is easy to copy, and firms with known brands in gadgets or clothing collect what little is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Navicloud Custom Debinder
Rainbows End, Vernor Vinge · 2006
A machine that tears bound volumes apart to digitise their pages.
already existed before the story (the 1990s)
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A machine that pulls books apart to copy their pages serves libraries and archives, which is a niche.
Who is paid. Libraries and firms that copy books buy it, and it is ordinary cutting and scanning machinery.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Wearables (Wearable Computers)
Rainbows End, Vernor Vinge · 2006
Computing gear woven into fabric so clothes carry the circuits.
built in the 2010s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Computers worn on the body are another shape of the one people already carry, so they are a convenience.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy them, and since they are easy to copy, the firms that already own gadget factories and well-known names collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Airboarding
Halting State, Charles Stross · 2007
Typing on an invisible keyboard projected in empty air.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A new way to type or point is a convenience, since keyboards and screens already do the job.
Who is paid. Ordinary people get it inside gadgets they buy, and it is easy to copy, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Max Detention (Virtual Counsel)
Quantico, Greg Bear · 2007
An artificial intelligence that acts as a person's legal advocate.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Legal work done by machine would cut the cost of contracts, disputes and advice across the whole legal trade.
Who is paid. A person in trouble with the law is assumed to buy this one, unlike the firms assumed for other legal machines, and once machines can do legal work many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Scanner Palm
KOP, Warren Hammond · 2007
A hand implant that captures documents when the palm is passed over them.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Copying papers with a pass of the hand is a convenience, and few would have an implant for it.
Who is paid. A few people would buy the implant, and many gadget firms could make one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tongue Mouse
Quantico, Greg Bear · 2007
A pointer controlled by moving the tongue, for hands-free computing.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A new way to give a computer commands is a convenience for most users and a real help for a few.
Who is paid. Ordinary users buy it as an add-on, and many gadget firms can make one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Virtual World Theft
Halting State, Charles Stross · 2007
Techniques for stealing or covertly transferring valuable items held inside online games.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. These are thieves' tricks for stealing game goods, a hazard to players and not something that may lawfully be sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Headspace
Flood, Stephen Baxter · 2008
A simulated world with lifelike touch where people raise a virtual infant.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A simulated world with lifelike touch is an entertainment and training industry of its own, of which raising a pretend infant is one use.
Who is paid. People pay for it as they pay for games and films, and since the machinery can be copied the owners of the popular worlds and stories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
ParanoidLinux
Little Brother, Cory Doctorow · 2008
An operating system that hides what its user is doing among decoy activity.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Hiding one's tracks matters greatly to a few people and little to most, so it is a niche.
Who is paid. The few who want it get it themselves, and such software is freely copied and often given away, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Photomnemonic Tablet
Anathem, Neal Stephenson · 2008
A slate whose surface both captures and displays pictures.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A slate that both takes and shows pictures is a handy camera and album in one.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and it is assumed to be ordinary camera and screen work that many firms can do.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Photonomous
Little Brother, Cory Doctorow · 2008
Software that removes a camera's identifying traces from an image file.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Hiding one's tracks matters greatly to a few people and little to most, so it is a niche.
Who is paid. The few who want it get it themselves, and such software is freely copied and often given away, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
SchoolBook
Little Brother, Cory Doctorow · 2008
A locked-down laptop that schools issue to every student.
built in the 2000s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A computer for every pupil changes how schools teach and what schooling costs, and the locks are a detail added to it.
Who is paid. Schools pay from public money, and since it is easy to make, the computer firms that already hold school supply contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
HUD Glasses
Daemon, Daniel Suarez · 2009
Eyewear that projects digital information over the wearer's view of the real world.
built in the 2010s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Unlike a simple screen on work headgear, glasses that lay information over everything the wearer sees could become an everyday thing for many people.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy them, and since the optics can be copied the firms that already own the software and services the glasses show collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Skin Computer
Mariposa, Greg Bear · 2009
A stretchy tattoo-like circuit worn on the skin that works as a computer.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Computers worn on the body are another shape of the one people already carry, so they are a convenience.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy them, and since they are easy to copy, the firms that already own gadget factories and well-known names collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Zip Paper
Mariposa, Greg Bear · 2009
A screen as thin and light as a sheet of paper.
built in the 2010s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A screen as thin and light as paper is a general display that could replace print and fixed sets, which changes the costs of a whole industry.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it inside their gadgets, and the firms that already make and sell screens and pocket computers add the feature and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Communication, media and displays · 22
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
E-paper Newspaper
Minority Report (Movie), Steven Spielberg · 2002
A bendable electronic sheet that shows a full page of news that updates.
already existed before the story (1997)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A bendable sheet that shows updating news is a nicer way to read what a handheld screen already shows.
Who is paid. Readers buy it, the sheet can be copied, and the display makers with the factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Immersive Home Video
Minority Report (Movie), Steven Spielberg · 2002
A projection system that lets people step into and replay family recordings.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A picture with depth that you can step into, here used for family recordings, would replace flat screens for home viewing.
Who is paid. Households buy it, the design can be copied, and the existing screen makers, who own the factories and brands, collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Maelstrom
Maelstrom, Peter Watts · 2002
An imagined successor to today's global computer network.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A worldwide network linking every person and machine changes how most people live and work.
Who is paid. Ordinary people and firms pay for access; the methods are open, so those who own the cables and exchanges collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Minority Report Ads (Biometric Personalized Ads)
Minority Report (Movie), Steven Spielberg · 2002
Street displays that recognise passers-by and pitch products to them personally.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Unlike a plain sign, a display that knows each passer-by and pitches to them personally would change what public advertising is worth.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay; the screens are easy to copy, so those who already hold the sites and the records about people collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
E-Sheet
Darwin's Children, Greg Bear · 2003
A cheap throwaway sheet that displays digital messages.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A throwaway sheet that shows a message is a convenience where paper or a screen would also do.
Who is paid. Unlike a lasting electronic newspaper, this is cheap and disposable by design, so many firms make it and none keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
E-paper Hologram
Darwin's Children, Greg Bear · 2003
A cover on thin electronic paper showing a three-dimensional picture.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A picture with depth on a cover is decoration, unlike a full display with depth.
Who is paid. Publishers and packagers would buy it to dress up a cover, and once thin electronic paper exists many printers could supply it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Speaker Chips
Darwin's Children, Greg Bear · 2003
Tiny chips in books that read aloud and pitch the book to shoppers.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A chip that makes a book pitch itself from the shelf is one more way to advertise.
Who is paid. Publishers pay to put the chip in their own books, and since the chip is the thing sold and is cheap and simple to copy, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bee Cam
City of Pearl, Karen Traviss · 2004
A tiny self-steering flying camera that follows and films its owner.
built in the 2010s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A tiny camera that follows and films you is a gadget for hobbyists and people who film themselves.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves and many electronics firms could make small flying cameras, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Implanted Comlink
Savior, Nancy Kress · 2004
A radio set embedded under the skin.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A phone inside the body that is never lost or left behind would be worth an industry, though surgery would put many people off.
Who is paid. Assuming it is a phone and not only an ear radio, people buy it for themselves, the device can be copied, and the firms that own the phone networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Signal Skin
The Algebraist, Iain M Banks · 2004
An alien species' skin that displays written words as its natural way to talk.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a creature's nature or a state of mind, not something made and sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Answerboard
Rainbows End, Vernor Vinge · 2006
An online question forum where specialists answer queries on a subject.
already existed before the story (the 1980s)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A forum where specialists answer questions is a handy service for those with a question, not a need.
Who is paid. People with questions pay or are shown advertisements, and the forum that already has the specialists gathered is hard to copy because the experts go where the askers are.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Librareome Project
Rainbows End, Vernor Vinge · 2006
A project to destroy physical library books while scanning them into a complete digital collection.
already existed before the story (the 1990s)
A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Every library book in one searchable collection would be worth an industry to readers and researchers.
Who is paid. Assuming readers pay by fee or subscription as for any library of digital books, the paper copies are destroyed in the scanning, so whoever holds the only complete collection has what nobody else can get.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mobile Advertisements
Sagramanda, Alan Dean Foster · 2006
Commercial messages that appear floating in the open air above public places.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Adverts thrown into people's path are one more way to advertise, not a new need.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay, the projector is easy to copy and nobody owns the open air it shines into, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pocket-Sized Ad-Blocker
Sagramanda, Alan Dean Foster · 2006
A carry-around gadget that shields its owner from personalised adverts.
already existed before the story (the 1990s)
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Shielding yourself from pestering adverts is a convenience.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it and many firms could make one, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Voxcoder
Storm Thief, Chris Wooding · 2006
A gadget that scrambles voice calls so nobody can listen in.
already existed before the story (the 1900s)
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Keeping a call private matters to a narrow set of users with secrets worth guarding.
Who is paid. Firms with secrets buy it, and since the method of garbling speech is well known and easy to copy, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Blacknet
Halting State, Charles Stross · 2007
A hidden online network for criminal and hostile collaboration.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A hidden network serves the few who must work out of sight, here criminals and hostile groups, though the law forbids it.
Who is paid. Assuming the groups that use it pay for access, anyone with the know-how can set up a hidden network and the law pursues whoever runs it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Digital Paper Pad
KOP, Warren Hammond · 2007
An extremely thin molecular display pad that stores and shows data.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A paper-thin pad that stores and shows information is the handheld screen at the centre of personal devices, an industry of its own.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, the design can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories and brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Overlay Specs
Halting State, Charles Stross · 2007
Glasses that lay digital information over the real world.
built in the 2010s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Information laid over what you see would change many jobs and daily errands; I judged the promise, which is larger than what has been sold.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the glasses can be copied, so the firms that already hold the software and the information shown collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
SPOOKS
Halting State, Charles Stross · 2007
A live role-playing game in which ordinary citizens pretend to be secret agents in the real world.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A game of pretend spying in real streets is an amusement for the people who like that sort of play.
Who is paid. Players pay to join, and since the description does not say the game needs a single shared crowd, I assume any organiser could run one like it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Kinagram
Anathem, Neal Stephenson · 2008
Small printed pictures that appear to move.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Small printed pictures that seem to move are a novelty.
Who is paid. Ordinary people buy them and any printer could make them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dattoo
Mariposa, Greg Bear · 2009
A thin electronic patch applied to the skin that swaps information with nearby devices.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A skin patch that swaps information with nearby devices is a convenience next to a card or a phone.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves and thin printed electronics can be made by many firms, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
EPR Phone
Mariposa, Greg Bear · 2009
A telephone service secured by quantum physics so any interception of a call becomes detectable.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Calls that reveal any eavesdropping matter greatly to a few callers with secrets and little to everyone else.
Who is paid. Firms and officials with secrets pay extra for it, the method comes from known physics that others could use, and the firms that own the phone networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Robotics and automation · 15
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Blurbflies (Sing. Blurbfly)
Nymphomation, Jeff Noon · 2000
Tiny flying robotic-biological creatures that deliver adverts to passers-by.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Flying adverts are a new way to reach passers-by, a niche within advertising.
Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and once such fliers exist many firms could breed or build them, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ditto Blank
Kiln People, David Brin · 2002
A blank disposable humanoid body waiting to receive a copied human personality.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A spare body that takes a copy of its owner would let most people be in several places at once for work and errands.
Who is paid. People buy the blanks for themselves, and assuming others could learn to make them the large makers with factories and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mobile Persocom
Chobits, Manga Clamp · 2002
A humanoid robot that serves as someone's personal computer.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A humanlike robot that is also its owner's computer is judged as a companion and helper, worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and as many could make such machines the firms with factories and well-liked brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Poppins
Kiln People, David Brin · 2002
A humanoid body carrying a copied childcare expert's personality to look after children.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Expert care for children at home would be worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Families buy it, and since they are assumed to trust only known names with their children the established makers with strong brands collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Reggie the Bartending Machine
The Outpost, Mike Resnick · 2002
A machine that mixes and serves cocktails.
built in 2017, 15 years after it was imagined
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A machine that mixes and serves drinks takes over a single job in the bar trade, a convenience and not a whole premises run with no staff.
Who is paid. Bar owners buy it, and a drink-mixing machine is easy for many makers to copy, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Automatic Hotel (Hotel Hendrix)
Altered Carbon, Richard Morgan · 2003
A lodging run entirely by machines, from arrival to departure, with no human staff.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Serving guests with no staff would change the costs of the whole trade.
Who is paid. Hotel operators buy the machinery, and since many could build it the established makers that already equip and service such buildings collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mandroid
Altered Carbon, Richard Morgan · 2003
A robot built to look like a human.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. The description gives only the human form, so it is assumed to be the artificial person of the stories, able to do most kinds of human work, which would change how most people work.
Who is paid. Firms buy them as labour, and since many could build such bodies once shown how, the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Specimen Track
Darwin's Children, Greg Bear · 2003
A conveyor that moves lab samples between stations in an automated laboratory.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A conveyor that carries samples between stations saves laboratory staff some time, and the real thing exists.
Who is paid. Laboratories buy it, and many makers can build such a track, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Synthetic Sleeve
Altered Carbon, Richard Morgan · 2003
A manufactured body that a digitised person can be loaded into.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. A made body that a stored person can be loaded into would let people outlive their first body, which changes how most people live; it is assumed the loading works.
Who is paid. People buy bodies for themselves, and since many could grow or build them the firms with factories and trusted names collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Motorized Combat Boots
Accelerando, Charles Stross · 2005
Powered military boots that carry the wearer along.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Powered boots that carry a soldier along are one piece of kit, a help on the march.
Who is paid. Armies pay, and the kit makers that already hold their contracts supply it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Amphibious Skimmer
Storm Thief, Chris Wooding · 2006
A fictional armed drone that moves over land and water in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. An armed machine that crosses land and water with no crew aboard would be worth a class of weapon of its own.
Who is paid. Armies pay, and the arms makers that already hold defence contracts would build it and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Municipal Cattle Remover
Sagramanda, Alan Dean Foster · 2006
A city machine that lifts stray cows off streets and loads them for relocation.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A machine that clears stray cows from streets serves only the towns that have them.
Who is paid. Towns pay, and the firms that already supply their street vehicles would build it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Driverless Drones
Halting State, Charles Stross · 2007
Robot vehicles where one remote operator oversees several at once with software help.
built in the 2010s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Letting a single operator watch over several robot vehicles would cut the labour cost of haulage and transport.
Who is paid. Transport firms buy the vehicles and their software, and as both can be copied the vehicle makers that already supply those fleets collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Controllable Drone Army
Daemon, Daniel Suarez · 2009
A networked fleet of robotic helpers that one person directs through hand motions.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A fleet of robot helpers directed by a single person would let small crews do the work of large ones.
Who is paid. Firms buy the fleet, and since the robots and the hand-motion controls can be copied the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robobug
The Golden City, John Twelve Hawks · 2009
A living insect fitted with electronics so it can be steered remotely.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A living insect steered from afar is assumed to be a tiny scout for spying and searching, a niche use.
Who is paid. Armies and rescue services are assumed to pay, and the firms that already supply their scouting gear would make it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Medicine, biotech and longevity · 16
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Anti-Virus Design Software
Super-Cannes: A Novel, J.G. Ballard · 2000
Architectural design tools that lay out spaces to slow the spread of infection.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Laying out buildings to slow infection is a helpful feature of design software, not a new industry.
Who is paid. Architects and builders would buy it, and any software firm could write the same thing, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Provigil-C
A Hymn Before Battle, John Ringo · 2000
A medicine that keeps soldiers alert through long stretches without rest.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Keeping troops alert through long operations is worth a good deal to any army.
Who is paid. The description names soldiers, so the army pays; wakefulness drugs are widely made, so the firms that already supply military medicine collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Inertial Bracelet
Psychohistorical Crisis, Donald Kingsbury · 2001
A wrist device that damps shaking in the hands.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Steadying shaking hands helps people with a few conditions.
Who is paid. Wearers would buy it, and it is a simple device many firms could make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hyperpig
Redemption Ark, Alastair Reynolds · 2002
A hybrid creature blending pig and human genes.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. The description gives the creature no use that a buyer would pay for, unlike made creatures bred for work, organs or company, so there is nothing to price.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Provigil
When the Devil Dances, John Ringo · 2002
A pill that removes fatigue itself rather than merely masking sleepiness.
already existed before the story (1998)
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Removing fatigue itself, not just masking it, is the promise of doing without sleep and would hand nearly every adult many more waking hours; the real medicine of this name does less.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and a medicine that truly did this would be new and protected from copying for a long while, so its maker keeps much of the gain.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Vagus Nerve Bio-Chip
Diplomatic Immunity, Lois McMaster Bujold · 2002
An implant that stimulates a nerve to stop queasiness without medication.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Stopping queasiness without medicine is a convenience for travellers and some patients.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and several firms could build such an implant, so established makers of medical devices collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Autosurgeon
Altered Carbon, Richard Morgan · 2003
A robotic machine that performs operations, with doctors on hand.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A machine that operates would cut the cost of surgery, but with doctors still on hand it changes only that part of medicine.
Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and clinics buy it; with the needed machine intelligence widely available several firms could build it, so established medical equipment makers and hospital groups collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
External Eyelenses
Altered Carbon, Richard Morgan · 2003
Old-fashioned lenses worn in front of the eyes to fix poor sight.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Correcting poor sight serves a large share of all people, though the story treats it as old-fashioned.
Who is paid. People buy them for themselves, and lenses are simple to grind and sold everywhere, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pigoon
Oryx and Crake, Margaret Atwood · 2003
A genetically modified pig raised to supply organs for human transplant.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A steady supply of organs for transplant would be worth an industry.
Who is paid. Patients pay, with insurers behind them, and since the animals breed, established farms and transplant centres collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Spray-on Surgical Gloves
Altered Carbon, Richard Morgan · 2003
A coating sprayed onto a surgeon's hands to form a thin sterile glove.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A sprayed glove is a small saving of time and fuss in the operating room.
Who is paid. Hospitals would buy it, and many makers of medical supplies could mix such a spray, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tuned-Laser Decontamination
Hybrids (Neanderthal Parallax), Robert J. Sawyer · 2003
A light-based treatment that wipes out unwanted biological molecules inside a person.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Clearing germs and other unwanted matter from inside a person with light would replace many medicines and change how infection is treated.
Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and border posts buy the equipment; other makers could copy it once it worked, so established medical equipment firms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gillfluid
The Algebraist, Iain M Banks · 2004
An oxygen-rich liquid breathed into the lungs so the body can withstand high pressure.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Breathing liquid to bear high pressure serves a few divers and space crews.
Who is paid. Firms would buy it for their crews, and I assumed the liquid is a chemical many firms could make, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
KloraDerm
Old Man's War, John Scalzi · 2005
Engineered human skin that photosynthesises, letting the body draw some energy from sunlight.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. The story promises only a little energy from sunlight, which is a curiosity beside ordinary food.
Who is paid. I assumed people buy it for themselves from clinics; the method could be copied, so clinics already offering such treatments collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
A-Som (Antisomnolence Drugs)
Shuteye for the Timebroker, Paul Di Filippo · 2006
A single tablet that eliminates the body's requirement for sleep.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Doing away with sleep would hand nearly every adult many more waking hours, changing how most people live and work.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and a new drug is protected from copying for a long while, so its maker keeps much of the gain.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Blithe
Anathem, Neal Stephenson · 2008
A fictional engineered plant used for social control in the story.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.
Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
EyePod
WWW: Wake, Robert J. Sawyer · 2009
An external processor unit that drives an implant restoring sight.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Giving sight back to blind people is worth an industry of its own, though most people would never need it.
Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and once the design was known other device makers could copy it, so established implant makers and eye clinics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Mind and neurotechnology · 10
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Napcap Induction Cap
Saturn's Race, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes) · 2000
A cap that reads and nudges brain rhythms to help the wearer relax and fall asleep.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Sleep on demand without drugs would be worth an industry of its own to the many people who sleep badly.
Who is paid. People who sleep badly would buy it for themselves, and the gear is simple enough for many makers to copy, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Imprint (A Ditto Blank)
Kiln People, David Brin · 2002
Copying a person's mind onto a temporary clay-like duplicate body.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Sending copies of yourself out to do the day's work would change how most people work and live.
Who is paid. People would buy blank bodies again and again, and once the copying was known the factories able to turn out blanks in bulk would collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cortical Stack
Altered Carbon, Richard Morgan · 2003
A spinal implant that holds a stored copy of someone's mind so they can be restored.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A vast prize. Keeping a copy of a mind so the person can be brought back would take away the finality of death for anyone who could have it.
Who is paid. People would pay for themselves and their families, and once one firm had done it others could, so the hospitals and medical firms people already trust would collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Needlecast
Altered Carbon, Richard Morgan · 2003
Beaming a digitised human mind across interstellar distances into a new body.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Sending a mind between the stars is travel for those with somewhere far to go, not the saving of a life, so it is an industry and not a need of most people.
Who is paid. Travellers would pay for the passage, and whoever already owns the transmitters and the waiting bodies at each end would collect, since the sending could be copied.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
BrainPal
Old Man's War, John Scalzi · 2005
A computer built into the brain that assists and connects soldiers.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A computer in the head that helps and connects every soldier would change how an army fights.
Who is paid. Unlike the other brain links this one is issued to soldiers, so the government pays, and the firms that already hold army supply contracts would collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
DC Mini
Paprika, Satoshi Kon · 2007
A device through which a psychotherapist can step inside a patient's dreams.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A therapist who can enter and shape dreams could treat troubles of the mind that talk alone does not reach.
Who is paid. Clinics and therapists would buy the machine, and the makers of medical equipment who already sell to them could copy it and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Angel Music Player
Flood, Stephen Baxter · 2008
A wireless player that sends music straight to the listener's brain.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Music sent straight to the brain is a new kind of earphone, a convenience.
Who is paid. Listeners would buy it for themselves, and players are easy for many makers to copy, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Mind-Reading with MRI
Daemon, Daniel Suarez · 2009
Brain scans analysed by software to infer what a person is thinking.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Working out what a person is thinking from a scan would change how crimes are solved and secrets are kept, whether or not the person scanned agrees.
Who is paid. The scan is run and read by someone other than the person scanned, so I assumed police, courts and spy services are the main buyers, and since the software could be copied the firms that already supply them would collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Third Eye
Daemon, Daniel Suarez · 2009
A display that conveys information through sensations on the user's skin.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Screens and sounds already carry information, so feeling it on the skin is a convenience.
Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and once it existed many makers could copy it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Websight
WWW: Wake, Robert J. Sawyer · 2009
A way of perceiving the web directly as an inner visual landscape.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Seeing the web directly in the mind needs a made link between brain and network, and such a link would be an industry of its own.
Who is paid. The description names no device, so I assume a brain link lies behind the sight; people would buy it for themselves, and since the link could be copied the firms that already run the networks and do the surgery would collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Transport and mobility · 11
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Beetle
Saturn's Race, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes) · 2000
An airship with a rigid protective outer shell.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A hard shell makes an airship tougher, but airships remain a niche for slow heavy loads and sightseeing.
Who is paid. Cargo and tour operators buy it, and a rigid shell is not hard to copy, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bubble
Saturn's Race, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes) · 2000
A pressurised lift that carries people between the surface and the sea floor.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A lift to the sea floor serves the few places where people work or holiday under the sea.
Who is paid. Undersea operators buy it, and the marine engineering firms that already build for them collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Interway
The Tels, Paul Black · 2003
A road network where computers steer and manage the traffic.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A road that does the driving would give every car on it the gains of driverless travel, but only where such roads are built.
Who is paid. Governments pay for roads, and the control gear is not hard to copy, so the road builders and signalling suppliers that already hold public works contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Traction City
Mortal Engines, Philip Reeve · 2003
Whole cities rebuilt as giant moving vehicles that roam the land.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Putting a whole city on wheels gains its people little beyond the power to move on, at great cost.
Who is paid. I assume the city itself pays, and the large engineering firms that already build for cities collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Traction City Gut
Mortal Engines, Philip Reeve · 2003
The processing hall inside a mobile city where captured towns are broken up for parts.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A hall where captured towns are broken up is a place in the story and not a thing anyone would buy.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so there is no buyer and no seller.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Perpetual Train
Iron Council, China Mieville · 2004
A huge train that builds its own railway ahead as it travels.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A train that lays its own track ahead saves the work of building the line first, which helps on a few new routes.
Who is paid. Railway builders buy it, and the established makers of railway machines collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Automated Taxi
Sagramanda, Alan Dean Foster · 2006
A cab that drives itself with no human at the wheel.
built in the 2010s, about 10 years after it was imagined
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A cab with no driver takes the largest cost out of every taxi ride, which is worth an industry of its own.
Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the cab buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Traffic Lane Discharger
Sagramanda, Alan Dean Foster · 2006
A road enforcement system that punishes drivers who dodge traffic controls, as imagined in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Punishing drivers who dodge the rules keeps traffic in order, which is a tool for the police.
Who is paid. Governments pay for road enforcement, and the firms that already supply road and police equipment collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Cop Block
Quantico, Greg Bear · 2007
A tool letting police remotely stop a fleeing driver's motor.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Stopping a fleeing car from a distance makes chases safer, which serves police forces alone.
Who is paid. Police forces pay for it, and the firms that already supply police gear and car electronics collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
AutoM8
Daemon, Daniel Suarez · 2009
An ordinary car driven from a distance by an operator instead of someone inside.
already existed before the story (the 1900s)
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Driving an ordinary car from afar still needs a person for each car, so it saves little and suits a few special jobs.
Who is paid. Fleet owners buy it, and remote controls are easy to fit to any car, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Digital Ink License Plate
Daemon, Daniel Suarez · 2009
An electronic vehicle registration plate that can switch what it shows instantly.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A plate that can change what it shows is a small convenience for lawful owners and mostly a help to those dodging the law.
Who is paid. Car owners buy it, and I assume it is sold freely as in the story, where any maker of small screens could build it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Energy and power · 6
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Oceanic Thermal Energy Converter
Saturn's Race, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes) · 2000
A power plant that draws on ocean temperature differences to generate electricity.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Power from warm and cold sea water is one more way to make electricity in a few warm coastal places.
Who is paid. Power companies buy the plant, and the design is ordinary engineering that many builders can copy so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Photo-Voltaic Robes
Snow in the Desert, Neal Asher · 2002
Garments woven from material that turns sunlight into usable electrical power.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Clothes that make a little electricity can charge small things, which is a convenience.
Who is paid. People buy them to wear, and any cloth maker can learn to weave them so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Hyper-Developed Mulies
The Calorie Man, Paolo Bacigalupi · 2005
Genetically improved draught animals tuned to turn fodder into work as efficiently as possible.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Where engines and fuel exist a better working animal is a niche, though in the story's fuel-starved world it would matter far more.
Who is paid. Farms and hauliers buy the animals, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the stock breeders and dealers that already supply working animals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Kink-Spring
The Calorie Man, Paolo Bacigalupi · 2005
A wound mechanical coil that holds energy and releases it with almost no losses.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A spring that stores energy with almost no loss would change what it costs to store and carry power.
Who is paid. Vehicle and machine makers buy it, and since storage designs tend to be copied the firms that already own the big factories collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Megadont
The Calorie Man, Paolo Bacigalupi · 2005
A genetically redesigned giant elephant-like beast that turns plant feed into muscle power for machinery.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Where engines and fuel exist a better working animal is a niche, though in the story's fuel-starved world it would matter far more.
Who is paid. Workshops and mills buy the beasts, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the stock breeders and dealers that already supply working animals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Fuel Tree
Anathem, Neal Stephenson · 2008
Crops grown specifically to be burned or refined for energy.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Crops grown for burning or refining are worth an industry, though the real thing turned out a modest extra fuel.
Who is paid. Fuel sellers and vehicle fleets buy it, and since the processing is easy to copy those who already own the farmland collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Materials, manufacturing and construction · 12
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Floating Island
Saturn's Race, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes) · 2000
Huge man-made platforms that float on the ocean and host people and buildings.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Floating land would suit a few while dry land stays cheaper, so I judged it a niche.
Who is paid. Residents pay for a place aboard, and large builders and shipyards who can raise such structures collect, since none can stop the others.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bullet-guard Overalls
Kiln People, David Brin · 2002
Work clothes made from a fabric tough enough to resist gunfire.
already existed before the story (the 1970s)
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Work clothes that resist gunfire protect people in dangerous jobs, which is a niche.
Who is paid. Employers buy it for their workers, and the fibre and workwear firms that already supply them make it without any one keeping others out.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Durachrome
Honor of the Regiment, Keith Laumer · 2002
An extremely tough metal alloy for armoured vehicles.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A far tougher alloy for armoured vehicles would change what an army's machines can survive.
Who is paid. Unlike the general-purpose alloys, this is armour, so armies pay and the firms that already hold vehicle contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Biolution
The Tels, Paul Black · 2003
A sweeping shift toward making goods with engineered living organisms.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. This is a shift and not a product, so I judged the method behind it: making goods with engineered organisms would change costs across several industries.
Who is paid. Manufacturers pay for the organisms and vats, and living tools can be regrown by others, so firms with plants and customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Goat/Spider Silk
Oryx and Crake, Margaret Atwood · 2003
Livestock engineered to make spider-silk protein that is spun into very strong thread.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Very strong thread from farm animals would change the cost of ropes, cables, protective cloth and structures.
Who is paid. Makers of cloth and cable buy it, and the animals breed and spread, so established fibre firms with plants and customers collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Illuminum
Altered Carbon, Richard Morgan · 2003
A self-luminous metal that gives off its own glow.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A metal that glows by itself is a decorative and lighting convenience.
Who is paid. Builders and designers buy it, and once understood many metal firms could make it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Self-Cleaning Gym Suit
Oryx and Crake, Margaret Atwood · 2003
Athletic clothing that eliminates the cause of sweaty smells as you wear it.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Sports clothes that do not smell are a convenience, and narrower than cloth that never needs washing.
Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and the treatment can be copied, so sportswear brands with shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Dumb Matter
Accelerando, Charles Stross · 2005
Plain material that has not been turned into computing substrate.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is only a name for ordinary matter that has not been altered, not a thing made or sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sprayrock
Pushing Ice, Alastair Reynolds · 2005
A sprayable mix that sets into a stone-hard layer.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A spray that sets stone-hard is a useful building supply, as sprayed concrete already is.
Who is paid. Builders buy it, and many firms can mix such a spray, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
House-of-Cards Construction
Rainbows End, Vernor Vinge · 2006
Buildings whose computers actively rebalance the structure to stay up in quakes.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Buildings that hold themselves up by active control could use far less material and survive quakes, changing building costs.
Who is paid. Developers buy it, and the method can be copied, so established builders and engineering firms collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Orphids
Postsingular, Rudy Rucker · 2007
Self-copying microscopic machines that spread across the whole planet in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. By the description these machines copy themselves and spread over the whole world unaided, so whatever good they do in the story reaches everyone free and there is nothing anyone would pay for.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold: unlike the make-anything machines, which someone must first buy, these arrive by themselves, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Distributed Assembly Plant
Daemon, Daniel Suarez · 2009
Parts made and joined by many unknown contributors spread across a network rather than one factory.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Making and joining parts across a network of many small shops would change the cost of setting up manufacturing.
Who is paid. Firms wanting goods made pay the scattered makers, and since anyone with tools can join, no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Weapons and warfare · 16
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Halo
Minority Report (Movie), Steven Spielberg · 2002
A fictional restraint device used by police to subdue suspects in the film.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A device that holds an arrested person helpless is a niche tool for police, a better handcuff.
Who is paid. Police forces pay, and the firms that already supply them would make it and collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sick Stick
Minority Report (Movie), Steven Spielberg · 2002
A fictional less-lethal police baton used on suspects in the film.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A baton that drops a suspect on contact is a modest improvement on gear police already carry.
Who is paid. Police forces pay, and such batons are easy to copy, so the firms already supplying police equipment collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Causality-violation Device (or Weapon)
Singularity Sky, Charles Stross · 2003
A fictional class of time-travel weapons that are banned in the story.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. In the story no one at all is allowed to use weapons that reach back through time, so even if they worked nobody could buy one.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Philips Squeeze Gun
Altered Carbon, Richard Morgan · 2003
A fictional handheld electromagnetic firearm carried by characters in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A gun driven by magnets throws its shot faster but does the job guns already do.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Slow Gun
Singularity Sky, Charles Stross · 2003
A fictional poison-based firearm used in the story.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A hidden poison device serves only spies and assassins, a very small trade.
Who is paid. Assuming the only lawful buyer is a state spy service, governments pay, and such gadgets are made in small workshops with no special hold, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Aether Cannon
Storm Thief, Chris Wooding · 2006
A fictional handheld energy weapon used in the story.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Assuming a soldier carries it, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Disperser
Sagramanda, Alan Dean Foster · 2006
A fictional vehicle anti-theft deterrent that punishes intruders in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A car alarm that hurts the thief is an extra on a car, not an industry.
Who is paid. Car owners pay, and since it is easy to copy the carmakers who fit it at the factory collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Magnetic Ram
Storm Thief, Chris Wooding · 2006
A fictional magnetic force weapon used in the story.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Judged as if it worked, and assuming a soldier carries it, a beam that shoves or strikes does much the same job as a gun.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and assuming rival makers learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Microwave Pistol
Blindsight, Peter Watts · 2006
A fictional handheld directed-energy weapon used in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Carried in the hand, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Persuader
Storm Thief, Chris Wooding · 2006
A fictional coercive restraint attached to people to force obedience in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. A device fixed to people to force obedience through pain is a tool of torture, which no one may lawfully buy or use.
Who is paid. Assuming it counts as a torture device, it is outlawed for everyone, governments included, so nothing is sold.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Orbital Weapon Lancet (OWL)
Quantico, Greg Bear · 2007
A fictional space-based strike weapon held in reserve in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Striking any point on the ground from orbit would be a major arm of a great power's forces.
Who is paid. Governments pay, and the rocket and arms firms that already launch and build for them would win the work, since the idea itself is simple.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Remotely Operated Auto-targeting Gun (ROAG)
Quantico, Greg Bear · 2007
A fictional remotely triggered autonomous gun emplacement in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A gun that guards a spot by itself saves some sentries but fills a narrow job within an army's kit.
Who is paid. Armies and border forces pay, and it is easy to copy from known parts, so the arms makers already supplying them collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Weapon Sound Tracker
Quantico, Greg Bear · 2007
An acoustic system that pinpoints where gunshots come from.
already existed before the story (the 1990s)
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Knowing at once where a shot came from helps police and soldiers but is a niche tool.
Who is paid. Police forces and armies pay, and the listening gear is easy to copy, so the firms that already have their networks installed in cities collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Defuser
Moxyland, Lauren Beukes · 2008
A fictional phone-based crowd control system used by authorities in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Stopping a crowd through the phones people carry is a narrow tool of control.
Who is paid. The authorities pay, and it only works through the phone networks, so the firms that own those networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Laser-Induced Plasma
Daemon, Daniel Suarez · 2009
A fictional handheld electrical weapon used by characters in a techno-thriller.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Carried in the hand, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.
Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Razorback
Daemon, Daniel Suarez · 2009
A fictional driverless armed motorcycle that serves as a weapon in a techno-thriller.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A machine that hunts and kills without a person steering it would let armies fight with far fewer soldiers, which changes what war costs.
Who is paid. Assuming lawful sale only to armies and police, governments pay, and since the parts are widely made, the defence suppliers with existing contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Surveillance, identity and control · 18
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Public Iris Scanner
Minority Report (Movie), Steven Spielberg · 2002
Public eye scanners that identify passers-by without their knowledge.
already existed before the story (1994)
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Identifying passers-by by their eyes without their knowing gives reliable identity from the body across a whole city.
Who is paid. The state pays, and eye matching can be copied, so the firms already supplying identity systems collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Spider Robot
Minority Report (Movie), Steven Spielberg · 2002
Small crawling robots that sweep a building and check who is inside.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Crawling robots that sweep a building and check who is inside change what police can do in a search.
Who is paid. Spy and police services pay, and once made it can be copied, so the firms already supplying such services collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Alibi Archive
Hominids (Neanderthal Parallax), Robert J. Sawyer · 2003
A stored record of everything a person experiences, captured by a device inside their body.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A full record of a person's life would be wanted by a great many people as memory, proof and protection, an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for it, and since recording is easy to copy the firms that already own the storage networks and devices collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Automated Sentry
Darwin's Children, Greg Bear · 2003
A checkpoint unit that recognises people by their faces.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Machines that know faces at a checkpoint change the cost of guarding borders and buildings, enough for an industry.
Who is paid. Governments pay for checkpoints, and face matching is easy to copy, so firms already holding security contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Companion Implant
Hominids (Neanderthal Parallax), Robert J. Sawyer · 2003
A multipurpose implant that assists, records and communicates for its wearer.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. An implant that helps, records and talks for its wearer would replace the personal devices most people carry, though many would refuse surgery.
Who is paid. Ordinary people pay, and it could be copied, so the firms that already own device brands and networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Little Bird
Darwin's Children, Greg Bear · 2003
A small remotely flown spy plane that watches from overhead.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Cheap flying watchers change the cost of policing, border watch and scouting enough to be an industry of their own.
Who is paid. Police forces and armies pay, and since many firms can build such craft the money goes to those already holding security and defence supply contracts.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Loiter-Drone
The Algebraist, Iain M Banks · 2004
A self-flying drone that hovers to guard a chosen zone.
built in the 2000s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Cheap flying watchers change the cost of policing, border watch and scouting enough to be an industry of their own.
Who is paid. Police forces and armies pay, and since many firms can build such craft the money goes to those already holding security and defence supply contracts.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Virtual Panopticon
The Traveler, John Twelve Hawks · 2005
Combining many data streams so authorities can watch any person closely.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Joining many streams of data so that any person can be watched closely changes what a state can know about its people.
Who is paid. The state pays, and the firms that already build and run its computer and records systems collect, since others could build the same.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pocket Scanner
Sagramanda, Alan Dean Foster · 2006
A fictional handheld device thieves use to get into cars in the story.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A tool for breaking into cars is useful only to a few agents and investigators.
Who is paid. It is unlawful for the public, so a spy or police service is the buyer, and the firms already supplying such services collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Bubble-Gum Pylon
Quantico, Greg Bear · 2007
A police road device that traps a fleeing car in sticky material.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Stopping a fleeing car with sticky material is a narrow police tool.
Who is paid. Police forces pay, and it could be copied, so the firms already supplying police equipment collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
CopSpace
Halting State, Charles Stross · 2007
A shared digital workspace holding officers' recordings, records and evidence.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A shared store of police recordings and evidence saves officers time but is a narrow piece of office software.
Who is paid. Police forces pay, and the software is easy to copy, so firms already supplying police systems collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Lifelog
Halting State, Charles Stross · 2007
A continuous recording of a person's daily life, kept automatically.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A full record of a person's life would be wanted by a great many people as memory, proof and protection, an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for it, and since recording is easy to copy the firms that already own the storage networks and devices collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Midge
Quantico, Greg Bear · 2007
A tiny insect-like flying drone launched from a larger aircraft.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Assuming it is used for spying, a flying machine too small to notice would change what police and spy services can learn, enough for an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Spy and police services pay, and once made they can be copied, so the firms already supplying such services collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
OSMO (Osmic Mobile Observers)
Quantico, Greg Bear · 2007
Drones that track people by sniffing their scent.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Drones that follow a person by scent would change what police can do in a search, like the other flying watchers.
Who is paid. Spy and police services pay, and once made it can be copied, so the firms already supplying such services collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Tongueprint Verification
Fleet of Worlds, Larry Niven (w/E.M. Lerner · 2007
An identity check that reads the surface pattern of a person's tongue.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. An identity check from the pattern of the tongue promises reliable identity from the body, the same gain as the fingerprint, eye and face readers, and each such reader is judged as if it were the reader that was built.
Who is paid. Assumes a state runs the checks; such readers are easy to copy, so the firms already supplying identity systems collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
WAGD Germ Detector
Quantico, Greg Bear · 2007
A handheld tool that tests for dangerous biological agents.
built in the 2000s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A handheld test for dangerous germs protects whole populations from outbreaks and attacks.
Who is paid. Health and defence bodies pay, and the firms that already make test instruments for them collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gait-Cam
Little Brother, Cory Doctorow · 2008
A camera network that identifies people by how they walk.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Cameras that know people by their walk change the cost of watching streets and stations, enough for an industry.
Who is paid. Governments pay for the camera network, and the matching is easy to copy, so firms already holding security contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Robot Snake Spy
Mariposa, Greg Bear · 2009
A small serpent-shaped robot that intelligence agents use to gather information in the field.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A snake-shaped robot that gathers information unseen changes what spy services can learn, like the other small spy machines.
Who is paid. Spy and police services pay, and once made it can be copied, so the firms already supplying such services collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Food, agriculture and environment · 7
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Weather Pod
Dune: House Harkonnen, Brian Herbert · 2001
A restricted instrument package used by planet scientists to study weather.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A package of weather instruments is a tool for a small group of scientists.
Who is paid. I assumed state science bodies buy it, and instruments like these can be made by many firms, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Alien Tarantula
Engine City, Ken MacLeod · 2003
An imagined alien creature whose feet grip surfaces like a lizard's.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a creature in a story and not something anyone could build or sell.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller gains.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
ChickieNobs
Oryx and Crake, Margaret Atwood · 2003
Poultry meat harvested from an engineered organism that grows only edible parts.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Meat from an organism that grows only the edible parts would cut the cost of meat across the whole trade.
Who is paid. Meat producers buy the stock, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the breeders and farm suppliers that already hold stock, sheds and sales channels collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Happicuppa Coffee Bush
Oryx and Crake, Margaret Atwood · 2003
A genetically modified coffee plant designed so its beans ripen together for machine picking.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Coffee that ripens all at once for machine picking would change the costs of the coffee trade.
Who is paid. Growers buy the plants, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the seed houses and nurseries that already hold stock, land and sales channels collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Sterile Seeds
The Calorie Man, Paolo Bacigalupi · 2005
Crop seed engineered so its harvest yields seed that will not sprout, forcing growers to buy again.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Seed that must be bought again every season changes who holds the money in farming, though the gain to growers depends on the crop being better.
Who is paid. Growers pay every season, and because saved seed will not sprout the breeder can stop all copying and keeps the most.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Allswell
Anathem, Neal Stephenson · 2008
A substance mixed into meals that makes people who eat it calmer and more placid.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. It is a drug put into meals to make people placid and it is banned, so nobody may buy it.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller gains.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Homing Butterflies
Moxyland, Lauren Beukes · 2008
Engineered butterflies that stay with a bunch of flowers after it is bought.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Butterflies that stay with a bouquet are a pretty extra on a gift.
Who is paid. People buy them with their flowers, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the florists and breeders that already hold stock and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Home and everyday life · 8
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Napcap Capsule
Saturn's Race, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes) · 2000
Small sleeping pods in busy transit hubs where travellers can rest.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A pod to nap in while travelling is a convenience for tired travellers.
Who is paid. Travellers pay by the stay, and since pods are easy to copy those who already hold space in busy transit hubs collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Pocket Dome
Chindi, Jack McDevitt · 2002
A compact shelter that pops up quickly wherever it is needed.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A shelter that pops up quickly is useful camping and expedition gear.
Who is paid. Households and travellers buy it and many firms can make it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Terrafoam Dorm Building
Manna, Marshall Brain · 2002
A cheap foam-built housing block that packs residents into tiny living cells.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Very cheap mass housing would change what it costs to shelter people, though the cells here are grim.
Who is paid. I assumed a government pays to house people who cannot pay, so the building firms that already hold such contracts collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Olfactory Wakeup Call
Altered Carbon, Richard Morgan · 2003
An alarm clock that rouses the sleeper by releasing smells.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Waking to a smell is a novelty version of an alarm clock.
Who is paid. Households buy it and any gadget maker can build it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Smart Wallpaper
Oryx and Crake, Margaret Atwood · 2003
Wall covering that reads how occupants feel and changes its colours to suit.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Wall covering that changes colour with mood is decoration; unlike the reshaping house it alters only colour.
Who is paid. Households buy it, and I assumed the covering can be copied by many makers, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Swiss
City of Pearl, Karen Traviss · 2004
A compact all-in-one personal tool packing many functions.
built in the 2000s, about 0 years after it was imagined
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A compact tool with many functions is a convenience.
Who is paid. Households buy it and many firms can make it, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Clothing Size Scanner
Sagramanda, Alan Dean Foster · 2006
A body scanner that measures a shopper to find their garment sizes.
already existed before the story (the 1990s)
A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Finding the right size without trying clothes on saves shoppers some bother and shops some returns.
Who is paid. Clothes shops buy the scanner, and many equipment makers can build a measuring device.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Magnetic Levitating Bed
Spook Country, William Gibson · 2007
A bed held above the floor by magnets with nothing visible supporting it.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A bed that floats with nothing under it is a showpiece.
Who is paid. Rich buyers pay for it, and strong magnets are available to any furniture maker.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Exotic physics · 7
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
E-Suit (Environmental Suit)
Chindi, Jack McDevitt · 2002
A personal force field that keeps air and warmth around the wearer's body.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A field that holds air and warmth would replace space suits, diving gear and much protective clothing.
Who is paid. Employers of people who work in harsh places would buy it, and a worn device could be copied by many makers.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Gravity Tube
Chindi, Jack McDevitt · 2002
A ship corridor with artificial gravity that moves cargo along it.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. It is one fitting inside a ship, a neater way to move cargo down a corridor.
Who is paid. Ship operators would pay for it as part of the vessel, and established shipbuilders would fit it.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Arteria Portal
The Algebraist, Iain M Banks · 2004
The mouth of a wormhole linking far-apart star systems.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A fixed link between far stars would carry all trade between them, an industry of its own.
Who is paid. Shippers would pay tolls, and whoever holds a wormhole mouth controls the only quick route, which others cannot simply copy.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
CTC Computer (Closed-Timeline-Curve Time-Travel)
Exultant, Stephen Baxter · 2004
A computer that sends results backward in time to finish calculations.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Getting the answer to any calculation at once would change the cost of computing for every firm that uses it.
Who is paid. Firms would buy the computing by the job, and the companies that already run large computer centres would install it once others had shown how.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Quantum Communications Hub
Defeated, Sean McKee · 2004
A relay satellite offering instant messaging across the solar system.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Instant messages between planets matter only to the few people and machines working far from home.
Who is paid. Space operators would pay for the service, and the firms that already run communication networks collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Waveform Hypothesis
Backbeat - A Novel of Physics, J. Frederick Arment · 2004
A physics idea from a novel, given no further description in the source.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. The source gives no description, so there is nothing here that could be sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Stopper Bubble
Red Lightning, John Varley · 2006
A field that freezes time for everything inside it.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. Stopping time inside a box would end spoilage and hold the badly hurt until help comes, assuming a container of household or shop size.
Who is paid. Homes, shops and hospitals would buy it like a refrigerator, and since it could be copied the appliance makers with factories and shops collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Society and economy · 7
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Randominoes
Nymphomation, Jeff Noon · 2000
Game tiles whose dotted faces change unpredictably.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. Game tiles with changing faces are a toy.
Who is paid. Players buy them, and any toy maker could produce them.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Municipal Darwinism
Mortal Engines, Philip Reeve · 2003
A world order in which large mobile cities hunt and absorb smaller ones.
not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Cities hunting one another is a world order, a way a society is arranged, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Whuffie
Down and Out in the Magic Kingdom, Cory Doctorow · 2003
An economy where standing in others' eyes works as money for buying life's essentials.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. Standing in others' eyes used as money is a custom of a society, not a product.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Coder
Storm Thief, Chris Wooding · 2006
A caste of people especially gifted at building and engineering things.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it
Why
No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.
Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Timebroker
Shuteye for the Timebroker, Paul Di Filippo · 2006
A dealer who buys and sells hours of other people's lives as a commodity.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s
A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A large prize. A market in people's hours is like the hiring of labour, an industry of its own; I assumed working hours are meant and not years of life.
Who is paid. Firms buy the hours, and anyone can set up as a dealer, so no seller keeps much.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Spine-Clamp
Anathem, Neal Stephenson · 2008
A fictional restraint used on convicted offenders in the story.
not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive
A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A restraint for convicts is a niche piece of prison gear.
Who is paid. The prison service buys it, and many firms could make one.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.
Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.
Ultimate Football League (UFL)
The Sun Also Explodes, Chris Nakashima-Brown · 2008
A sports league that places no limits on bodily enhancement of players.
not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s
A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it
Why
A small prize. A new spectator sport is entertainment, a niche.
Who is paid. Fans pay to watch, and since a sport is easy to copy, those who already own teams, grounds and broadcast deals collect.
A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.