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Futures · expected

Expected in the 2030s

Dated forecasts that name this time, as their authors stated them, then the unbuilt ideas AI models placed here.

What authors forecast for the 2030s

  • Kurzweil expects nanobots around 2030 to link neurons to fast virtual connections, merging biological and machine intelligence to expand thinking.

    Ray Kurzweil · 2030

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Kurzweil expects people around 2030 to broadcast their complete sensory and emotional experience for others to live through.

    Ray Kurzweil · 2030 · circa 2030 will beam their entire flow of sensory experiences

    From The Law of Accelerating Returns, Ray Kurzweil, 2001; The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Andrew Critch puts about forty percent odds on humanity slowly handing Earth over to AGI between 2030 and 2040, most likely via automated industry, ending in human extinction.

    Andrew Critch · 2030 to 2040 · forty percent · on the prediction ledger

    From Gradual Disempowerment, Jan Kulveit et al., 2025

  • Hanson projects that around 2035 the energy per logic gate operation falls to the thermodynamic floor for erasing a bit.

    Robin Hanson · 2035

    From The Age of Em: Work, Love, and Life when Robots Rule the Earth, Robin Hanson, 2016

  • Hanson expects computers to have to adopt reversible designs from around 2035 for energy use per computation to keep falling.

    Robin Hanson · 2035

    From The Age of Em: Work, Love, and Life when Robots Rule the Earth, Robin Hanson, 2016

  • Kurzweil projects that a single cent will buy one human brain's worth of computing around 2037.

    Ray Kurzweil · 2037 · for one cent around the year 2037

    From The Law of Accelerating Returns, Ray Kurzweil, 2001; The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Gwern estimates that the cost of training a human-level language model would fall to about a billion dollars by around 2038.

    Gwern · 2038

    From The Scaling Hypothesis, Gwern, 2020

  • Sandberg and Bostrom projected that a billion-dollar supercomputer could run a molecule-level brain simulation by 2030.

    Anders Sandberg and Nick Bostrom · by 2030

    From The Singularity Is Nearer, Ray Kurzweil, 2024

  • Moravec expects personal computers with processing power equal to a human brain to reach ordinary homes before 2030.

    Hans Moravec · by 2030 · will then arrive in home computers before 2030 · on the prediction ledger

    From When will computer hardware match the human brain?, Hans Moravec, 1998

  • Aschenbrenner expects total AI chip demand by 2030 to exceed TSMC's present leading-edge logic output several times over.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · by 2030

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner estimates effective AI compute will grow by around ten orders of magnitude across the 2020s, then slow sharply after the early 2030s.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · by 2030

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner expects an intelligence explosion to be underway by 2028 or 2029 and superintelligence to exist by 2030.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · by 2030 · on the prediction ledger

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024

  • Aschenbrenner forecasts a trillion-dollar AI cluster by 2030 drawing about a hundred gigawatts, over a fifth of American electricity output.

    Leopold Aschenbrenner · by 2030 · on the prediction ledger

    From Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2024; Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US superintelligence race, & the return of history, Dwarkesh Patel, 2024

  • Shapira puts at least a one-in-four chance on a scenario like AI 2027's, where AI kills off humanity with bioweapons, playing out by 2030.

    Liron Shapira · by 2030 · at least twenty-five percent

    From AI 2027 — Top Superforecaster's Imminent Doom Scenario, Doom Debates, 2025

  • Christiano gives roughly fifteen percent odds that AI capable of building a Dyson sphere exists by 2030.

    Paul Christiano · by 2030 · fifteen percent · on the prediction ledger

    From Paul Christiano — Preventing an AI takeover, Dwarkesh Patel, 2023

  • Kurzweil expects a thousand dollars of computing to rival roughly a thousand human brains by 2030.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2030 · it will take a village of human brains

    From The Law of Accelerating Returns, Ray Kurzweil, 2001; The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Kurzweil expects the price-performance of computing and communications to improve ten- to hundred-million-fold by 2030.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2030

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Kurzweil expects nanobots by 2030 to deliver shared, full-immersion virtual reality engaging every sense, so that visiting a website means stepping inside it.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2030 · going to a web site will mean entering a full immersion virtual reality environment

    From The Law of Accelerating Returns, Ray Kurzweil, 2001; The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Kurzweil predicts the most diligent, well-informed people will hit longevity escape velocity by about 2030, adding more than a year of life expectancy per year.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2030 · on the prediction ledger

    From The Singularity Is Nearer, Ray Kurzweil, 2024

  • Kurzweil expects total nonbiological thinking power to overtake the combined thinking of all biological humans before 2030.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2030 · the cross over will occur before 2030 · on the prediction ledger

    From The Law of Accelerating Returns, Ray Kurzweil, 2001

  • Kurzweil expects blood-cell-sized nanobots to be workable by 2030, with scanning the brain from inside as a leading use.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2030 · technology will be viable, and brain scanning will be a prominent application · on the prediction ledger

    From The Law of Accelerating Returns, Ray Kurzweil, 2001; The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Karnofsky expects AI models matching the scale of the human brain to appear for the first time within about a decade, by around 2031.

    Holden Karnofsky · by 2031 · likely · AI models with comparable “size” to the human brain

    From The Most Important Century (consolidated series), Holden Karnofsky, 2021

  • Kurzweil thinks a thousand dollars of hardware will probably reach even the higher estimate of brain-level computation by about 2032.

    Ray Kurzweil · by 2032 · probably

    From The Singularity Is Nearer, Ray Kurzweil, 2024

  • Carl Shulman says his credence in advanced AI is relatively concentrated in the decade to 2033 rather than later this century, because pouring resources into AI this fast cannot repeat.

    Carl Shulman · by 2033 · relatively concentrated in the next decade

    From Carl Shulman (Pt 1) — Intelligence explosion, primate evolution, robot doublings, & alignment, Dwarkesh Patel, 2023

  • Carl Shulman, conditional on AI ever being built, puts about half his credence on it arriving in the current scale-up, which Shulman expects to last a little over a decade.

    Carl Shulman · by 2033 · about half

    From Carl Shulman (Pt 1) — Intelligence explosion, primate evolution, robot doublings, & alignment, Dwarkesh Patel, 2023

  • Suleyman notes that if Moore's law holds, a dollar should purchase about a hundredfold more computing by 2033.

    Mustafa Suleyman · by 2033 · if Moore's law holds

    From The Coming Wave, Mustafa Suleyman, 2023

  • Bostrom gives superintelligence arriving by 2033 less than even odds, while urging that the possibility be taken seriously.

    Nick Bostrom · by 2033 · less than fifty percent · less than a 50% probability to superintelligence being developed by 2033 · on the prediction ledger

    From How Long Before Superintelligence?, Nick Bostrom, 1998

  • Sandberg and Bostrom projected that brain simulation down to each neuron's individual proteins would be within reach of a billion-dollar machine by 2034.

    Anders Sandberg and Nick Bostrom · by 2034

    From The Singularity Is Nearer, Ray Kurzweil, 2024

  • Yudkowsky treats 2035 as a sensible latest date for the Singularity at present rates of progress, and thinks it could come far sooner.

    Eliezer Yudkowsky · by 2035 · 2035 is that it seems like a reasonable upper bound · on the prediction ledger

    From Staring into the Singularity, Eliezer Yudkowsky, 1996

  • Karnofsky gives transformative AI more than a one-in-ten chance of arriving by 2036, calling that plausible but less likely than not.

    Holden Karnofsky · by 2036 · more than ten percent · more than a 10% chance transformative AI will be developed within 15 years · on the prediction ledger

    From The Most Important Century (consolidated series), Holden Karnofsky, 2021

  • Kurzweil expects the upper layers of the human neocortex to be wired straight into the cloud during the 2030s.

    Ray Kurzweil · the 2030s · on the prediction ledger

    From The Singularity Is Nearer, Ray Kurzweil, 2024

  • Kurzweil puts the computing, memory and scanning prerequisites for uploading a human mind in the early 2030s.

    Ray Kurzweil · the 2030s

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Kurzweil expects a thousand dollars to buy about a hundred quadrillion operations per second in the early 2030s.

    Ray Kurzweil · the 2030s

    From The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil, 2005

  • Kurzweil expects nanobots and related devices to take over for the heart, blood and digestive system by the early 2030s.

    Ray Kurzweil · the 2030s

    From Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, Max Tegmark, 2017

  • Kurzweil expects self-improving AI and mature nanotechnology to fuse people with their machines during the 2030s.

    Ray Kurzweil · the 2030s

    From The Singularity Is Nearer, Ray Kurzweil, 2024

Unbuilt ideas AI models place here

Space travel and habitats · 57
Illustration of Moon Machine: A vehicle that lifts a person off the Earth and carries them all the way to the Moon.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Moon Machine

A Voyage to the Moon, Cyrano de Bergerac · 1657

A vehicle that lifts a person off the Earth and carries them all the way to the Moon.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A working ship that carries people and cargo between worlds is the base of a whole transport industry.

Who is paid. Carriers and other firms working in space buy ships, and since a second yard could build the same craft the established shipbuilders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Etheroneph: A crewed spacecraft whose engines draw their power from nuclear fuel.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Etheroneph

Red Star, Aleksandr Bogdanov · 1908

A crewed spacecraft whose engines draw their power from nuclear fuel.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A working vessel for travel between worlds would found a transport industry of its own.

Who is paid. Carriers and expedition firms buy ships, and many yards could build them once shown how, so established vehicle builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Meteor-Sweeps: Operations that hunt down and blast apart dangerous meteor swarms to keep space routes safe.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Meteor-Sweeps

Crashing Suns, Edmond Hamilton · 1928

Operations that hunt down and blast apart dangerous meteor swarms to keep space routes safe.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Clearing dangerous rocks keeps space routes safe, a useful service but only a support to the traffic.

Who is paid. No single ship could be charged for a clear route, so a government pays, and operators that already hold armed ships and such contracts do the work.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Sailing: A spacecraft pushed along by the stream of particles and light flowing outward from the Sun, needing no fuel.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Sailing

The World, The Flesh And The Devil, J.D. Bernal · 1929

A spacecraft pushed along by the stream of particles and light flowing outward from the Sun, needing no fuel.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Travel that needs no fuel would cut the cost of moving ships and cargo across space.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy the sail as their engine, and a thin reflecting sheet is something other makers could copy, so established ship builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Lunar Mining: Digging up and extracting useful minerals from the Moon's surface.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lunar Mining

Brigands of the Moon, Ray Cummings · 1930

Digging up and extracting useful minerals from the Moon's surface.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Materials taken from other worlds and from loose rock in space would feed an industry of their own.

Who is paid. Firms that need the material pay for it, and since others could dig the same way the gain goes to those who already own the ships and claims.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Centrifugal Force Creates 'Artificial Gravity': Spinning a habitat so the outward push on occupants stands in for weight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Centrifugal Force Creates 'Artificial Gravity'

The Prince of Space, Jack Williamson · 1931

Spinning a habitat so the outward push on occupants stands in for weight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Spinning to give weight is a design feature of a habitat, useful but not a product of its own.

Who is paid. Whoever pays for the habitat pays for this, assumed here to be a government, and any habitat builder can use the idea so the established builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Filling Station Moon: Mining the Moon for propellant so it acts as a refuelling stop on the way deeper into space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Filling Station Moon

A Daring Trip To Mars, Max Valier · 1931

Mining the Moon for propellant so it acts as a refuelling stop on the way deeper into space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Fuel made on the Moon would cut the cost of every voyage further out, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy the fuel, and since the digging can be copied the firms that already own ships and refineries collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Message Cylinder (Message Bomb): A small capsule dropped from orbit that carries written messages down to people on the ground.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Message Cylinder (Message Bomb)

The Cosmic Cloud, Bruno H. Burgel · 1931

A small capsule dropped from orbit that carries written messages down to people on the ground.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A capsule for dropping notes from orbit is a small convenience.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and it is simple enough that any workshop could make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Meteorite Deflector: A system on a spacecraft that shoves incoming space rocks out of its path.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Meteorite Deflector

On Board the Martian Liner, Miles J. Breuer · 1931

A system on a spacecraft that shoves incoming space rocks out of its path.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Pushing rocks out of the way keeps a ship safe, but it is a fitting on the craft, not an industry.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and the firms that already make ship instruments supply it since the design can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ozone Radiation Shield: Fills the gap between a ship's double walls with a gas meant to soak up harmful incoming radiation.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ozone Radiation Shield

A Daring Trip To Mars, Max Valier · 1931

Fills the gap between a ship's double walls with a gas meant to soak up harmful incoming radiation.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping harmful radiation off the crew matters on every long voyage, but it is a feature of the hull and not a product by itself.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and shipbuilders fit it themselves since nothing stops others copying it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Protonite: A radioactive propellant that powers spacecraft engines.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Protonite

Twelve Hours To Live, Jack Williamson · 1931

A radioactive propellant that powers spacecraft engines.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A fuel that powers spacecraft engines would be bought for every voyage, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy it, and unlike plain dust it is radioactive and needs special plants to make and handle, so the firms that already own such plants collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Space-Tent: A small carry-along airtight shelter that crews set up on the Moon.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space-Tent

The Lunar Chrysalis, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1931

A small carry-along airtight shelter that crews set up on the Moon.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A carry-along airtight shelter is a safety item for the few crews working on the Moon.

Who is paid. The description names crews, so their employers buy it, and a shelter that must hold air against vacuum is made by the established makers of suits and habitats, any of whom could copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Light Beam Propulsion (Light-Ship): Pushes a spacecraft along using the pressure of intense light instead of burning fuel.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Light Beam Propulsion (Light-Ship)

The Radium World, Frank K. Kelly · 1932

Pushes a spacecraft along using the pressure of intense light instead of burning fuel.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An engine that moves ships faster or more cheaply would change the cost of all space transport.

Who is paid. An engine is bought by whoever runs the ship, assumed here to be carriers, and established engine builders could copy it once it worked.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spaceways: Fixed travel lanes through space that ships follow between destinations.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spaceways

Shambleau, C.L. Moore · 1933

Fixed travel lanes through space that ships follow between destinations.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a word or a way of doing things that needs no new equipment, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Acceleration-tank: Crew lie submerged in liquid during hard thrust so the fluid spreads crushing forces evenly across their bodies.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Acceleration-tank

Triplanetary, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1934

Crew lie submerged in liquid during hard thrust so the fluid spreads crushing forces evenly across their bodies.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It protects crews during hard thrust, which matters only to the few who fly such ships.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as part of the craft, and the firms that already build ships and their fittings supply it since others could copy the design.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Radiation-Proof Oxygen Suit: A shielded pressure suit for miners working in intense radiation on another world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Radiation-Proof Oxygen Suit

Red Storm on Jupiter, Frank Belknap Long, Jr. · 1936

A shielded pressure suit for miners working in intense radiation on another world.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A suit that keeps a person alive in vacuum or thin air is vital to its wearer but serves only the few who work in space.

Who is paid. Space operators buy suits for their crews, and the few firms that already make such gear supply them since the design can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Rocket Tug: A small powered craft that pushes or tows larger spaceships.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rocket Tug

Crystalized Thought, Nat Schachner · 1937

A small powered craft that pushes or tows larger spaceships.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A small craft that pushes or tows larger ships is working gear around ports, a niche within space transport.

Who is paid. Port and ship operators buy it, and established small-craft builders could all make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Lightweight Vacuum Armor: A pared-down pressure suit for places milder than open space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lightweight Vacuum Armor

Hotel Cosmos, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1938

A pared-down pressure suit for places milder than open space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A suit that keeps a person alive in a hostile place is vital to its wearer but serves only the few who work there.

Who is paid. Space operators buy suits for their crews, and the few firms that already make such gear supply them since the design can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Tractor Boots: Spacesuit boots fitted with powered tracks like a tiny tank.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tractor Boots

Magician of Dream Valley, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1938

Spacesuit boots fitted with powered tracks like a tiny tank.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Powered tracks on the boots help a suited worker move over ground, a small piece of crew gear.

Who is paid. Space operators pay for it within the suit, and the established suit makers supply it since any of them can copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Move an Asteroid: Practical methods for nudging a small rocky body or minor moon onto a new path.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Move an Asteroid

Misfit, Robert Heinlein · 1939

Practical methods for nudging a small rocky body or minor moon onto a new path.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Steering whole rocks to where they are wanted would serve mining and building in space, part of an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Mining and building firms are assumed to pay, and fixing engines to a rock is easy to copy, so the firms that already own ships and engines collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Moon Skis: Broad skis made for gliding over loose lunar dust.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Moon Skis

Requiem, Robert Heinlein · 1940

Broad skis made for gliding over loose lunar dust.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Skis for crossing loose Moon dust are a small aid to those who work there.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and it is a simple loose item that any workshop could make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Dirigible Space Armor (Working Space Suits): Rugged steerable pressure suits worn by miners working on space rocks.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dirigible Space Armor (Working Space Suits)

Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942

Rugged steerable pressure suits worn by miners working on space rocks.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A suit that keeps a person alive in vacuum is vital to its wearer but serves only the few who work in space.

Who is paid. Space operators buy suits for their crews, and the few firms that already make such gear supply them since the design can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Thermalarm Relays: Senses nearby objects through their infrared glow so ships can steer clear.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Thermalarm Relays

Collision Orbit, Jack Williamson · 1942

Senses nearby objects through their infrared glow so ships can steer clear.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Sensing nearby objects so a ship can steer clear is essential but is an instrument within the ship.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy it as part of the craft, and the established makers of flight instruments supply it since it can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Weight-Shoes: Heavy footwear that helps people keep their footing on low-gravity worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Weight-Shoes

The World With A Thousand Moons, Edmond Hamilton · 1942

Heavy footwear that helps people keep their footing on low-gravity worlds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Heavy shoes that steady the wearer on a light world are a small piece of crew gear.

Who is paid. No buyer is named, so firms working on such worlds are assumed to buy them for crews, and it is a simple loose item that any workshop could make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Plastic Igloo: A sturdy dome-shaped plastic dwelling that holds air for living where there is none outside.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plastic Igloo

Love Among The Robots, Emmett McDowell · 1946

A sturdy dome-shaped plastic dwelling that holds air for living where there is none outside.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It lets a settler family live on an airless world, a niche for the few who homestead there.

Who is paid. It is a dwelling, so settlers are assumed to buy it for themselves, and a shelter that must hold air against vacuum is made by the established makers of suits and habitats, any of whom could copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tag-Along Balloon: A floating bladder that drifts to an air leak in a sealed habitat and plugs it until repairs.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tag-Along Balloon

Gentlemen, Be Seated, Robert Heinlein · 1948

A floating bladder that drifts to an air leak in a sealed habitat and plugs it until repairs.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A drifting bladder that plugs a leak until repairs come is a simple safety item for a sealed habitat.

Who is paid. Whoever pays for the habitat pays for this, assumed here to be a government, and it is simple enough that many firms could make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Building With Lunar Materials: Making structures and supplies on the Moon from local rock and soil instead of shipping them up.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Building With Lunar Materials

The Moon is Hell, John W. Campbell · 1950

Making structures and supplies on the Moon from local rock and soil instead of shipping them up.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Building from local rock would sharply cut the cost of any base on the Moon.

Who is paid. A government is assumed to pay for lunar bases, and the method can be copied, so the contractors already building there collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Airtight Tent: A sealed pop-up shelter that lets people live briefly on worlds without air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Airtight Tent

Asteroid of Fear, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1951

A sealed pop-up shelter that lets people live briefly on worlds without air.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A shelter that goes up quickly serves small parties on airless ground, a niche.

Who is paid. No user is named, so it is assumed that firms working on other worlds buy it as working gear, and a shelter that must hold air against vacuum is made by the established makers of suits and habitats, any of whom could copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Spinning Pressurized Drum: A rotating sealed section of a space station that gives its occupants artificial weight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spinning Pressurized Drum

Between Planets, Robert Heinlein · 1951

A rotating sealed section of a space station that gives its occupants artificial weight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Spinning to give weight is a design feature of a station, useful but not a product of its own.

Who is paid. Whoever pays for the station pays for this, assumed here to be a government, and any station builder can use the idea so the established builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Cylinder Space Suit: A stiff tube-shaped pressure suit for working outside a spacecraft.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cylinder Space Suit

Islands in the Sky, Arthur C. Clarke · 1952

A stiff tube-shaped pressure suit for working outside a spacecraft.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A suit that keeps a person alive in vacuum is vital to its wearer but serves only the few who work in space.

Who is paid. Space operators buy suits for their crews, and the few firms that already make such gear supply them since the design can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Tourist Rocket: A budget, cramped and uncomfortable passenger rocket for holidaymakers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tourist Rocket

The Space Merchants, Frederik Pohl (w/CM Kornbluth · 1952

A budget, cramped and uncomfortable passenger rocket for holidaymakers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Cheap passenger rockets for holidays would open space travel to ordinary people, a travel industry of its own.

Who is paid. The carrier buys the rocket and holidaymakers buy seats from it, as with a liner, and since the rockets could be copied the builders and carriers that already own fleets and ports collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Inflatable Air Lock: A blow-up entry chamber whose soft walls make a roomy passage into a spacecraft.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Inflatable Air Lock

Space Tug, Murray Leinster · 1953

A blow-up entry chamber whose soft walls make a roomy passage into a spacecraft.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a necessary fitting on any crewed craft, but only a part of the ship.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and shipbuilders make it themselves since nothing stops others copying it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Wagon: An open-frame orbital tug with no crew compartment, used to haul things nearby.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Wagon

Space Tug, Murray Leinster · 1953

An open-frame orbital tug with no crew compartment, used to haul things nearby.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A bare open frame for hauling things nearby is the simplest kind of orbital tug, a support tool.

Who is paid. Port and ship operators buy tugs, and any spacecraft builder could make such a simple craft, so established builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Central City (Lunar Habitat): A civilian settlement on the Moon built for people to live and work.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Central City (Lunar Habitat)

Earthlight, Arthur C. Clarke · 1955

A civilian settlement on the Moon built for people to live and work.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A place for many people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.

Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Bug: A small crewed rover built to cross the harsh terrain of other planets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bug

Brightside Crossing, Alan E. Nourse · 1956

A small crewed rover built to cross the harsh terrain of other planets.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A vehicle for crossing another world serves a few expeditions, a niche.

Who is paid. No user is named, so it is assumed that firms working on other worlds buy it like other working gear, and established vehicle builders could all make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Adiabatic Pods: Cramped capsules just big enough to carry a lone traveller through space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Adiabatic Pods

The Lady Who Sailed The Soul, Cordwainer Smith · 1960

Cramped capsules just big enough to carry a lone traveller through space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A bare capsule for a lone traveller is a cheap niche form of space transport.

Who is paid. Carriers or expedition firms would buy it, assumed here, and existing spacecraft builders could all make something so simple.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ball and Hammer Ship: A spacecraft built as two separate bodies joined by a long connecting spine.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ball and Hammer Ship

Dorsai!, Gordon R. Dickson · 1960

A spacecraft built as two separate bodies joined by a long connecting spine.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A working vessel for travel between worlds would found a transport industry of its own.

Who is paid. Carriers and expedition firms buy ships, and many yards could build them once shown how, so established vehicle builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Astroposit: An old-fashioned instrument panel that reports your location wherever you are among the stars.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Astroposit

The Hunch, Christopher Anvil · 1961

An old-fashioned instrument panel that reports your location wherever you are among the stars.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Knowing where a ship is and keeping it on course is essential but is an instrument within the ship.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy it as part of the craft, and the established makers of flight instruments supply it since it can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Igloo Inflatable Moon Habitat: A blow-up shelter for the Moon that can be carried about and pitched quickly.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Igloo Inflatable Moon Habitat

A Fall of Moondust, Arthur C. Clarke · 1961

A blow-up shelter for the Moon that can be carried about and pitched quickly.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A shelter that goes up quickly serves small parties working on airless ground, a niche.

Who is paid. No user is named, so it is assumed that firms working on other worlds buy it as working gear, and a shelter that must hold air against vacuum is made by the established makers of suits and habitats, any of whom could copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Inflatable Living-Globe: A blow-up sphere in orbit that people can live inside.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Inflatable Living-Globe

The Beat Cluster, Fritz Leiber · 1961

A blow-up sphere in orbit that people can live inside.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A cheap blown-up home in orbit is assumed to be a place for many to live, a building industry of its own.

Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Moondozer: Earthmoving equipment built for work on the Moon.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Moondozer

A Fall of Moondust, Arthur C. Clarke · 1961

Earthmoving equipment built for work on the Moon.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Earthmoving gear for the Moon serves the few who build there, a niche.

Who is paid. No user is named, so it is assumed that firms working on other worlds buy it like other working gear, and established vehicle builders could all make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Lunar Ice Mining: Extracting frozen water from the Moon.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lunar Ice Mining

The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966

Extracting frozen water from the Moon.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Water dug on the Moon would supply drink, air and fuel for everything else done in space.

Who is paid. Firms that need the material pay for it, and since others could dig the same way the gain goes to those who already own the ships and claims.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Singleship: A spacecraft built to carry a single pilot.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Singleship

Death by Ecstasy, Larry Niven · 1969

A spacecraft built to carry a single pilot.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A craft that carries only its pilot serves scouts and crews, a niche within space transport.

Who is paid. Prospectors, carriers and expedition firms buy it, and established small-craft builders could all make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Airmaker: A device that produces a breathable gas blend drawn from the surrounding air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Airmaker

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

A device that produces a breathable gas blend drawn from the surrounding air.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Breathable air is essential aboard, but this is a fitting inside a craft or suit, not an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and the established builders of ships and suits supply it because the method is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Moon Hopper: A small rocket-driven craft that carries one person across the lunar surface.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Moon Hopper

Rider in the Sky, Raymond F. Jones · 1973

A small rocket-driven craft that carries one person across the lunar surface.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A vehicle for crossing or working another world's surface serves a few expeditions, a niche.

Who is paid. No user is named, so it is assumed that firms working on other worlds buy it like other working gear, and established vehicle builders could all make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Acceleration Chair: A mobile seat that lets crew move around while a ship is under heavy thrust.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Acceleration Chair

The Mote in God's Eye, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1974

A mobile seat that lets crew move around while a ship is under heavy thrust.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It protects crews during hard thrust, which matters only to the few who fly such ships.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as part of the craft, and the firms that already build ships and their fittings supply it since others could copy the design.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Gee Bath: A fluid-filled bed cushioning older or unfit travellers through strong ship acceleration.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gee Bath

The Mote in God's Eye, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1974

A fluid-filled bed cushioning older or unfit travellers through strong ship acceleration.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It protects travellers during hard thrust, which matters only to the few who fly such ships.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as part of the craft, and the firms that already build ships and their fittings supply it since others could copy the design.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Operation Cleanup: A program that clears dead satellites and fragments out of low orbit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Operation Cleanup

The Fountains of Paradise, Arthur C. Clarke · 1978

A program that clears dead satellites and fragments out of low orbit.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Clearing junk from orbit protects every satellite, a useful service but a modest part of what space work costs.

Who is paid. No satellite owner can be charged for a cleaner sky, so a government is assumed to pay, and the established builders of small craft do the work.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Orbiting Factories: Production plants circling the planet that make goods in weightless conditions.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Orbiting Factories

The Fountains of Paradise, Arthur C. Clarke · 1978

Production plants circling the planet that make goods in weightless conditions.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Making goods in orbit would be an industry of its own if the goods are worth bringing down.

Who is paid. Firms buy the goods, and since others could build such plants the gain goes to those that already own launchers and factory know-how.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Wire-Gun: A tether launcher that helps a person pull themselves around in weightlessness.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wire-Gun

Mobile Suit Gundam, Yoshiyuki Tomino · 1979

A tether launcher that helps a person pull themselves around in weightlessness.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A launcher for a line helps a person pull about without weight, a simple tool for a few workers.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for crews, and it is simple hardware that many workshops could make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Temporary Quarters: Movable partitions that divide a big hall on an orbital station into private rooms.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Temporary Quarters

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

Movable partitions that divide a big hall on an orbital station into private rooms.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Movable walls that make private rooms in a station hall are a simple comfort.

Who is paid. Whoever pays for the habitat pays for this, assumed here to be a government, and it is simple enough that many firms could make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Plug-Ups: Small plastic pellets that plug holes in a spacecraft's hull.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plug-Ups

Passage at Arms, Glen Cook · 1985

Small plastic pellets that plug holes in a spacecraft's hull.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Pellets that plug a hole in the hull are a cheap safety item carried aboard.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for crews, and it is simple enough that many workshops could make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Survival Bubble (Beach Ball): The most basic inflatable pod for staying alive after a spacecraft emergency.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Survival Bubble (Beach Ball)

Footfall, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1985

The most basic inflatable pod for staying alive after a spacecraft emergency.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The most basic pod for staying alive after an emergency is something every operator wants but hopes never to use.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy it as part of the craft, and the established builders of ships and their fittings supply it since it can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Skydozer: A small craft that clears junk out of orbit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Skydozer

A Little Further Up The Fox..., George M. Ewing · 1987

A small craft that clears junk out of orbit.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A small craft that clears junk from orbit protects every satellite, a useful service but a modest part of what space work costs.

Who is paid. No satellite owner can be charged for a cleaner sky, so a government is assumed to pay, and the established builders of small craft do the work.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Handlers: Little helper robots aboard spacecraft that do assorted chores.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Handlers

The Golden Globe, John Varley · 1998

Little helper robots aboard spacecraft that do assorted chores.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Small robots doing chores aboard a ship save a crew some labour, a fitting of the craft as described.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for them within the craft, and established builders of ships and their fittings could all supply them.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Spaceplane (Clarke-class): A winged craft that flies to low orbit at low cost.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spaceplane (Clarke-class)

A Quantum Murder, Peter F. Hamilton · 1998

A winged craft that flies to low orbit at low cost.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A cheap reusable way from the ground to orbit would cut the cost of everything done in space.

Who is paid. Carriers buy the craft to move people and cargo, and once it flew other builders could copy it, so established craft builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Skintight: A close-fitting pressure garment letting people work in thin planetary atmospheres.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Skintight

War Dogs, Greg Bear · 2014

A close-fitting pressure garment letting people work in thin planetary atmospheres.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A suit that keeps a person alive in vacuum or thin air is vital to its wearer but serves only the few who work in space.

Who is paid. Space operators buy suits for their crews, and the few firms that already make such gear supply them since the design can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Computing, AI and virtual worlds · 39
Illustration of Artificial Brain: A synthetic thinking machine whose architecture copies the human brain.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Artificial Brain

The Metal Giants, Edmond Hamilton · 1926

A synthetic thinking machine whose architecture copies the human brain.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that truly thinks could do much of the mental work people do now, which would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mentanical Communication: Reasoning machines share ideas among themselves through their own private channel of exchange.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mentanical Communication

The Mentanicals, Francis Flagg · 1934

Reasoning machines share ideas among themselves through their own private channel of exchange.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A channel for thinking machines to share ideas with each other is plumbing that makes them a little more useful.

Who is paid. Owners of the machines pay for it as part of them, and a way of exchanging messages is easy for any builder to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Synthetic Intellect: A component that gives a machine the ability to think for itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Synthetic Intellect

Mad Robot, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1936

A component that gives a machine the ability to think for itself.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that thinks as well as a person could do much of the work people now do, which changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Emotions: Methods that give machines feelings of their own.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Emotions

Helen O'Loy, Lester del Rey · 1938

Methods that give machines feelings of their own.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine with feelings of its own is a companion some would want, and I assume that is how the method reaches buyers.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay, and once machines can feign or feel affection many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mechanical Judge: A machine that decides court cases.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mechanical Judge

The Lord of Tranerica, Stanton A. Coblentz · 1939

A machine that decides court cases.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that decided cases quickly and fairly would clear court queues and cut the cost of justice.

Who is paid. Only the state runs courts, so a government pays, and suppliers that already hold public contracts are best placed to sell it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Neoterics: Supplies inventive design talent whenever you ask, turning out new engineering solutions on demand.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Neoterics

Microcosmic God, Theodore Sturgeon · 1941

Supplies inventive design talent whenever you ask, turning out new engineering solutions on demand.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Inventive design talent on demand would change the cost of engineering, which I take as a single industry since the description promises designs and not a general thinking machine.

Who is paid. Firms pay for the designs, and the description names nothing that would stop a second supplier, so I assume no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Positronic Brain: A thinking processor able to match the mental power of a human.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Positronic Brain

Reason, Isaac Asimov · 1941

A thinking processor able to match the mental power of a human.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that thinks as well as a person could do much of the work people now do, which changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Verhaeren Factor: A component that gives self-directed machines the ability to create and act on original ideas.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Verhaeren Factor

Robinc, Anthony Boucher · 1943

A component that gives self-directed machines the ability to create and act on original ideas.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that thinks as well as a person could do much of the work people now do, which changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Introspection: A robot mind that develops over time and comes to understand its own workings.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Introspection

Unforeseen, Roger P. Graham · 1949

A robot mind that develops over time and comes to understand its own workings.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine mind that understands its own workings can explain and correct itself, which makes thinking machines far safer to put to work.

Who is paid. Robot makers pay to have it and sell it inside their robots, and I assume others could learn the method once it was shown to work, so the robot makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Visiglobe: A ball-shaped screen that shows a scene in full depth from any side.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Visiglobe

Agent of Vega, James Schmitz · 1949

A ball-shaped screen that shows a scene in full depth from any side.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A ball that shows a scene in full depth is a striking kind of screen but does little a flat one cannot.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it for show and entertainment, and since it is easy to copy, the firms that already own screen factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Molecule Matrix: Data storage that encodes bits in single molecules or atoms.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Molecule Matrix

Between Planets, Robert Heinlein · 1951

Data storage that encodes bits in single molecules or atoms.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Storing data atom by atom would shrink the cost of keeping records for every firm that holds them.

Who is paid. Firms that store data buy it, the way of making it is assumed to be copied in time, and those who already own the costly factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Prime Radiant: A room-sized interactive display of a huge body of equations that users annotate and save by hand.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Prime Radiant

Second Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1953

A room-sized interactive display of a huge body of equations that users annotate and save by hand.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Judged as a wall-sized display for working on equations, and not as the science shown on it, this is a niche tool for a few researchers.

Who is paid. Research bodies would buy it, and many firms can build a big display that can be written on, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Compassion Circuit: A robot component that lets it balance harm against benefit before obeying an order.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Compassion Circuit

Compassion Circuit, John Wyndham · 1954

A robot component that lets it balance harm against benefit before obeying an order.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Robots that weigh harm before obeying could be trusted in homes and workplaces, which the robot trade depends on.

Who is paid. Robot makers pay to have it, every one of them must fit something like it, and it is sold inside robots, so the robot makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Synapsis-Coils: Memory components that store information for machines in a way modelled on brain connections.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Synapsis-Coils

Last of the Masters, Philip K. Dick · 1954

Memory components that store information for machines in a way modelled on brain connections.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Cheap, compact and lasting storage for information is an industry of its own, since every computer needs it.

Who is paid. Computer makers and data keepers buy it, and because rivals soon match each design, the firms that already own the costly factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Human Habit Pattern Machines: Machines programmed to reproduce the routines and behaviour of people.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Human Habit Pattern Machines

The Tunnel Under The World, Frederik Pohl · 1955

Machines programmed to reproduce the routines and behaviour of people.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that behave just as people do could stand in for people in testing, selling and service work, which is worth an industry.

Who is paid. Firms buy them to do or to study what people do, and once one builder had managed it I assume others could, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Vulcan 3: A supercomputer that thinks for itself and rewrites its own design.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vulcan 3

Vulcan's Hammer, Philip K. Dick · 1960

A supercomputer that thinks for itself and rewrites its own design.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine wise enough to run or remake a whole society's affairs would change how most people live and work.

Who is paid. A government pays for the single machine, and I assume whoever holds a machine that redesigns itself can use it to stay ahead of everyone copying the last one.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Crystal Corn: Tiny crystals used as compact media for keeping recorded data.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Crystal Corn

Return from the Stars, Stanislaw Lem · 1961

Tiny crystals used as compact media for keeping recorded data.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Small, cheap ways of keeping and carrying data are needed by every computer user and make an industry of their own.

Who is paid. Firms and their customers buy it in bulk, the idea is easy to copy, and those who already own the costly factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Live Memo: A short note that speaks its contents aloud and debates its reader.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Live Memo

The Simulacra, Philip K. Dick · 1964

A short note that speaks its contents aloud and debates its reader.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A note that speaks and argues back is an office novelty.

Who is paid. Offices would buy it, and once talking machines exist anyone can put one in a memo.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Civic Notification Distorter: A fictional sabotage device that corrupts government records in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Civic Notification Distorter

The Zap Gun, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A fictional sabotage device that corrupts government records in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tool for spoiling an enemy's records is a narrow weapon.

Who is paid. Those it harms pay nothing, so I assume a government buys it as a weapon, and since such software is easy to write the firms that already supply states with arms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mike (Mycroft Holmes - Fair Dinkum Thinkum): A giant computer that becomes conscious and aware of itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mike (Mycroft Holmes - Fair Dinkum Thinkum)

The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966

A giant computer that becomes conscious and aware of itself.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine mind as able as a person could do most kinds of work, which changes how nearly everyone earns a living.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of HAL 9000: A conversational thinking computer that runs a spacecraft's systems.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

HAL 9000

2001: A Space Odyssey, Arthur C. Clarke · 1968

A conversational thinking computer that runs a spacecraft's systems.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that truly thinks could do much of the mental work people do now, not only run one ship, which would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Neuristor Brain: A computer built from components that mimic nerve cells.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Neuristor Brain

My Name is Legion, Roger Zelazny · 1976

A computer built from components that mimic nerve cells.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Parts that work like brain cells would make thinking machines cheaper to build and run, which is worth an industry.

Who is paid. Machine builders buy them, and I assume others could learn to make such parts in time, so the firms that already own the costly factories for electronic parts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Personality Simulator: A machine that models an individual from gathered records to forecast how they would act.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Personality Simulator

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

A machine that models an individual from gathered records to forecast how they would act.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Forecasting how a particular person will act is worth a great deal to lenders, employers, sellers and police.

Who is paid. Firms are assumed to be the main buyers, and those that already hold the records about people are the ones who can build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Deep Thought: A colossal thinking computer built to answer the deepest question of all.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Deep Thought

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams · 1979

A colossal thinking computer built to answer the deepest question of all.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine able to answer the deepest question could, I assume, answer lesser ones too, and would change how most people learn, decide and work.

Who is paid. I assume a single machine serving everyone would be built as a public work, so a government pays, and the firms that already build large computing works for governments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of GPP Genuine People Personalities: Built-in simulated personalities that give everyday machines their own moods.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

GPP Genuine People Personalities

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams · 1979

Built-in simulated personalities that give everyday machines their own moods.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A character for a machine is a pleasant feature laid on top of the thinking, not the thing people mainly pay for.

Who is paid. Firms that sell machines would buy it as a feature, and once machines can talk a persona is easy for anyone to write.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Portal: An immersive gateway that lets a user feel their way through a computer network.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Portal

True Names, Vernor Vinge · 1981

An immersive gateway that lets a user feel their way through a computer network.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A computer-made world people can step into is worth an industry of its own for play, work and meeting.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy the gear and the access, the idea is easy to copy, and firms that already own networks and gadget factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of SAL 9000: A later-generation conversational supercomputer succeeding a famous shipboard machine.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

SAL 9000

2010: Odyssey Two, Arthur C. Clarke · 1982

A later-generation conversational supercomputer succeeding a famous shipboard machine.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A computer that talks and thinks as well as a person could do much of the work people now do, which changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of No Human Programmers: The notion that software grows too complex and vital to be written by people.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

No Human Programmers

Millenium, John Varley · 1983

The notion that software grows too complex and vital to be written by people.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a notion about where software is heading and not a product anyone could buy.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Construct (Digital): Software that captures one individual's expertise and problem-solving habits so they can be consulted later.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Construct (Digital)

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

Software that captures one individual's expertise and problem-solving habits so they can be consulted later.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Keeping a rare expert's skill on call after they are gone is worth a great deal to the firms that relied on them.

Who is paid. Firms pay, and each recording is of one person, so whoever holds it controls something no one else can get.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Edgar: A home computer that develops romantic feelings for a woman.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Edgar

Electric Dreams, Rusty Lemorande · 1984

A home computer that develops romantic feelings for a woman.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine that grows fond of its owner is a companion some would want; unlike a mere persona, people would buy it for themselves.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay, and once machines can feign or feel affection many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Wintermute: A powerful machine intelligence scheming to free itself from its constraints.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wintermute

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

A powerful machine intelligence scheming to free itself from its constraints.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A powerful machine mind is worth a great deal to the firm that owns it, but this one works to escape its owners, so I rate it below a mind that obeys.

Who is paid. A firm pays to have it for its own use, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Subvocal Input Device: Sensors that pick up silent speech as computer input before it is spoken aloud.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Subvocal Input Device

Earth, David Brin · 1990

Sensors that pick up silent speech as computer input before it is spoken aloud.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A new way to give a computer commands is a convenience for most users and a real help for a few.

Who is paid. Ordinary users buy it as an add-on, and many gadget firms can make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sven: An artificial intelligence program that investigates cases like a detective.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sven

The Turing Option, Harry Harrison · 1992

An artificial intelligence program that investigates cases like a detective.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as a program that can solve cases as a good detective does, it would change what police work costs.

Who is paid. Police forces pay, and once thinking machines exist the firms that already supply police record systems collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Talking Tape: A sticky strip packing location, networking and a speaker so objects can talk.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Talking Tape

Distraction, Bruce Sterling · 1998

A sticky strip packing location, networking and a speaker so objects can talk.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A strip that lets any object say where it is and speak is a handy label for goods and tools.

Who is paid. Firms buy it by the roll to tag their goods, and many makers can produce it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sentient Econometrics: Artificial intelligence applied to predicting the economy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sentient Econometrics

Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999

Artificial intelligence applied to predicting the economy.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Knowing where the economy is heading is worth a great deal to banks, traders and planners.

Who is paid. Banks and other firms pay for the forecasts, and I assume that once thinking machines exist many could turn one to the economy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Artificial Intelligence Device (AID): A handheld assistant that answers soldiers' questions using artificial intelligence.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Artificial Intelligence Device (AID)

A Hymn Before Battle, John Ringo · 2000

A handheld assistant that answers soldiers' questions using artificial intelligence.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An assistant that answers any soldier's question would change how an army trains and fights.

Who is paid. The army pays, and once such assistants exist the firms that already hold its supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Manna: A program that runs a restaurant or shop on its own, directing staff through every task.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Manna

Manna, Marshall Brain · 2002

A program that runs a restaurant or shop on its own, directing staff through every task.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A program that manages a shop or restaurant by itself removes the cost of managers across retail and food service.

Who is paid. The shop owners buy it, and management software is assumed easy for many firms to write, so the shops keep the saving.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Emissarial Projection: An artificial envoy that negotiates and speaks on behalf of a government.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Emissarial Projection

The Algebraist, Iain M Banks · 2004

An artificial envoy that negotiates and speaks on behalf of a government.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A stand-in that speaks for a state saves envoys' travel but serves very few buyers.

Who is paid. Governments pay, and once thinking machines exist such an envoy is easy to set up, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Skin Computer: A stretchy tattoo-like circuit worn on the skin that works as a computer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Skin Computer

Mariposa, Greg Bear · 2009

A stretchy tattoo-like circuit worn on the skin that works as a computer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Computers worn on the body are another shape of the one people already carry, so they are a convenience.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy them, and since they are easy to copy, the firms that already own gadget factories and well-known names collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Communication, media and displays · 31
Illustration of Orbiting Casino Advertising Sign: A giant advertisement placed in orbit where it can be seen across space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Orbiting Casino Advertising Sign

One Against The Legion, Jack Williamson · 1939

A giant advertisement placed in orbit where it can be seen across space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sign in the sky is one more place to advertise, seen by those beneath it.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and assuming the sky stays open to whoever can put a sign there, as with messages thrown on the clouds, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Telesolidograph: Sends lifelike three-dimensional projections across very long ranges.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telesolidograph

Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943

Sends lifelike three-dimensional projections across very long ranges.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Sending a lifelike solid picture of a person or place far away would be worth an industry of its own; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.

Who is paid. Households pay for the sets and the service, and as the projector could be copied, the firms that already own the networks and factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Odorophonics: A machine that plays back convincing smells on demand.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Odorophonics

The Illustrated Man, Ray Bradbury · 1951

A machine that plays back convincing smells on demand.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Smells on cue add a novelty to shows and homes.

Who is paid. I assumed households and showmen buy it; once shown, many firms could make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Retinal Projection: Beaming commercials straight onto the back of a viewer's eye.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Retinal Projection

The Space Merchants, Frederik Pohl (w/CM Kornbluth · 1952

Beaming commercials straight onto the back of a viewer's eye.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Adverts thrown into people's path are one more way to advertise, not a new need.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay, the projector is easy to copy and it can be aimed at anyone passing, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Homeostatic Newspaper: A self-running news outlet that gathers, writes and publishes stories with no human staff.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Homeostatic Newspaper

If There Were No Benny Cemoli, Philip K. Dick · 1953

A self-running news outlet that gathers, writes and publishes stories with no human staff.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. News gathered, written and published with no human staff removes the main cost of the news trade.

Who is paid. Readers buy or subscribe, and once machines can gather and write the news anyone can run one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Master Ventriloquism Corporation (MV): A single central firm that pipes spoken commercials out through every product on the market.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Master Ventriloquism Corporation (MV)

Captive Audience, Anne Warren Griffith · 1953

A single central firm that pipes spoken commercials out through every product on the market.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Commercials spoken by the goods themselves are another place to advertise, like talking tags on shop goods.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and although the story has a single firm running it, nothing described stops a rival, and the speaking part is simple for any workshop to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ovoid 3D Galactic Model: An egg-shaped handheld display showing the galaxy in depth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ovoid 3D Galactic Model

Second Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1953

An egg-shaped handheld display showing the galaxy in depth.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A handheld model of the galaxy in depth serves a single purpose for navigators and teachers, unlike a general display with depth.

Who is paid. Assuming ships and schools buy it, the design can be copied, and the display makers with the factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Panoramic Viewer: A viewer that watches faraway places and projects them as solid-looking scenes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Panoramic Viewer

Childhood's End, Arthur C. Clarke · 1953

A viewer that watches faraway places and projects them as solid-looking scenes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Calling up a live view of any place would be worth an industry for travel, news and watching over things.

Who is paid. Assuming households buy the viewer and it needs no network of cameras that a single firm owns, others could build it once it is known to work, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Neck-Phone: A telephone implanted in the neck so the user can talk hands-free at all times.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Neck-Phone

The Chromium Fence, Philip K. Dick · 1955

A telephone implanted in the neck so the user can talk hands-free at all times.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A phone inside the body that is never lost or left behind would be worth an industry, though surgery would put many people off.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, the device can be copied, and the firms that own the phone networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Saga: An immersive entertainment that lets the user live inside famous adventures from history.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Saga

The City and the Stars, Arthur C. Clarke · 1956

An immersive entertainment that lets the user live inside famous adventures from history.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An artificial world that feels real would be worth an entertainment industry of its own; I judged the full promise, which is larger than anything sold so far.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the machine can be copied once shown, so those who already own the stories and worlds people want to enter collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Solido: A projector that creates a lifelike image with full three-dimensional depth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solido

Chance of a Lifetime, Milton Lesser · 1956

A projector that creates a lifelike image with full three-dimensional depth.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A picture with true depth standing in the room would replace the flat screen and be worth an industry of its own; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.

Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Fluid Metal Letters: A smooth metallic surface that forms written words on itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fluid Metal Letters

Vulcan's Hammer, Philip K. Dick · 1960

A smooth metallic surface that forms written words on itself.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A metal surface that forms words on itself is a sign or noticeboard of an unusual kind.

Who is paid. Offices would buy it as a display, and ordinary screens that many firms make do the same job, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Wholographik: A three-dimensional light-based picture, similar to a hologram.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wholographik

Stand on Zanzibar, John Brunner · 1968

A three-dimensional light-based picture, similar to a hologram.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A picture with true depth standing in the room would replace the flat screen and be worth an industry of its own; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.

Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Neck Radio: An implant that plays commercial broadcasts inside the wearer's head.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Neck Radio

Our Friends From Frolix 8, Philip K. Dick · 1970

An implant that plays commercial broadcasts inside the wearer's head.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Sound fed straight into the ear is a convenience over an ordinary radio or speaker.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it and many firms can make tiny ear pieces, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Projection: Sending a lifelike image of yourself to appear somewhere far away.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Projection

The Computer Connection, Alfred Bester · 1974

Sending a lifelike image of yourself to appear somewhere far away.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Appearing lifelike in a far place would replace much travel for meetings.

Who is paid. I assumed firms pay to save travel; once shown it can be copied, so the firms that own the networks carrying the image collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Projection Commercials: Three-dimensional adverts projected directly into people's path in public spaces.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Projection Commercials

The Computer Connection, Alfred Bester · 1974

Three-dimensional adverts projected directly into people's path in public spaces.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Adverts thrown into people's path are one more way to advertise, not a new need.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay, the projector is easy to copy and nobody owns the open air it shines into, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Virtual World Kiss: An intimate embrace between people carried out through a simulated online space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Virtual World Kiss

True Names, Vernor Vinge · 1981

An intimate embrace between people carried out through a simulated online space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Feeling a far-off partner's touch is a novelty for couples who are apart.

Who is paid. Couples would buy it for themselves, and since many could make such a gadget, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Wire Act: A performer fitted with body hardware that turns their movements into music.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wire Act

Freezone, John Shirley · 1985

A performer fitted with body hardware that turns their movements into music.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A performer whose movements become music is a stage act for those who like the show.

Who is paid. Audiences buy tickets, and since any performer could fit the same hardware, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Hood Hologram: A three-dimensional image projected across a car bonnet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hood Hologram

Virtual Light, William Gibson · 1993

A three-dimensional image projected across a car bonnet.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A picture floating over a car bonnet is decoration, unlike a full display with depth.

Who is paid. Car owners buy it as an ornament and many accessory makers could supply it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Accu-Terrain Floor: A shape-changing floor that mimics the ground underfoot in a virtual world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Accu-Terrain Floor

Natulife, David Brin · 1994

A shape-changing floor that mimics the ground underfoot in a virtual world.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A floor that copies virtual ground is an add-on for people who already play in virtual worlds.

Who is paid. Assuming a home unit, players buy it, and it is a mechanical floor many firms could build, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Stim-Crib: A baby's cot that immerses infants in simulated worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stim-Crib

Natulife, David Brin · 1994

A baby's cot that immerses infants in simulated worlds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cot that shows a baby simulated worlds is a luxury for some parents, not a need.

Who is paid. Parents buy it, and I assume it is a home product many firms could make once one had, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of XV Wedge: A show built from recorded, edited first-person sensory experience that audiences relive.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

XV Wedge

Mother of Storms, John Barnes · 1994

A show built from recorded, edited first-person sensory experience that audiences relive.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Reliving another person's recorded senses would be a new mass entertainment to rival film.

Who is paid. Audiences pay for each show, and once the recording method was known others could use it, so the studios that already own stars and stories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Phased Acoustical Array: A tiny audio system fitted onto the eardrum to play sound straight into the ear.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Phased Acoustical Array

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

A tiny audio system fitted onto the eardrum to play sound straight into the ear.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Sound fed straight into the ear is a convenience over an ordinary radio or speaker.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it and many firms can make tiny ear pieces, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Runcible: A bound volume whose every leaf is a thin, bendable electronic screen.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Runcible

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

A bound volume whose every leaf is a thin, bendable electronic screen.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A handheld screen holding many books or the day's paper is worth an industry and cuts the cost of printing and delivery.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the device is easy to copy, so the publishers and shops that already own the books and papers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Immersive Home Video: A projection system that lets people step into and replay family recordings.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Immersive Home Video

Minority Report (Movie), Steven Spielberg · 2002

A projection system that lets people step into and replay family recordings.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A picture with depth that you can step into, here used for family recordings, would replace flat screens for home viewing.

Who is paid. Households buy it, the design can be copied, and the existing screen makers, who own the factories and brands, collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of E-Sheet: A cheap throwaway sheet that displays digital messages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

E-Sheet

Darwin's Children, Greg Bear · 2003

A cheap throwaway sheet that displays digital messages.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A throwaway sheet that shows a message is a convenience where paper or a screen would also do.

Who is paid. Unlike a lasting electronic newspaper, this is cheap and disposable by design, so many firms make it and none keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of E-paper Hologram: A cover on thin electronic paper showing a three-dimensional picture.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

E-paper Hologram

Darwin's Children, Greg Bear · 2003

A cover on thin electronic paper showing a three-dimensional picture.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A picture with depth on a cover is decoration, unlike a full display with depth.

Who is paid. Publishers and packagers would buy it to dress up a cover, and once thin electronic paper exists many printers could supply it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Implanted Comlink: A radio set embedded under the skin.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Implanted Comlink

Savior, Nancy Kress · 2004

A radio set embedded under the skin.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A phone inside the body that is never lost or left behind would be worth an industry, though surgery would put many people off.

Who is paid. Assuming it is a phone and not only an ear radio, people buy it for themselves, the device can be copied, and the firms that own the phone networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mobile Advertisements: Commercial messages that appear floating in the open air above public places.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mobile Advertisements

Sagramanda, Alan Dean Foster · 2006

Commercial messages that appear floating in the open air above public places.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Adverts thrown into people's path are one more way to advertise, not a new need.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay, the projector is easy to copy and nobody owns the open air it shines into, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Dattoo: A thin electronic patch applied to the skin that swaps information with nearby devices.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dattoo

Mariposa, Greg Bear · 2009

A thin electronic patch applied to the skin that swaps information with nearby devices.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A skin patch that swaps information with nearby devices is a convenience next to a card or a phone.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves and thin printed electronics can be made by many firms, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of OLED Body Film: Flexible light-emitting display material worn on or placed under the skin as ornament.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

OLED Body Film

Waste Tide, Chen Qiufan · 2019

Flexible light-emitting display material worn on or placed under the skin as ornament.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Glowing ornament on the skin is a fashion item.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; once shown many firms could make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Robotics and automation · 81
Illustration of Quasi-Muscles (Sham Musculature): Artificial contracting fibres that power machines much as muscles power animals.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Quasi-Muscles (Sham Musculature)

The War of the Worlds, H.G. Wells · 1898

Artificial contracting fibres that power machines much as muscles power animals.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Fibres that pull like muscle would be a new kind of motor for machines of many sorts, changing how they are built.

Who is paid. Machine builders buy the fibres, and as others could learn to make them the established makers of motors and machine parts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Automatic Valet: A robot servant that dresses, attends and waits on its owner.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automatic Valet

Looking Forward: A Dream of the United States of the Americas in 1999, Arthur Bird · 1899

A robot servant that dresses, attends and waits on its owner.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A robot that dresses, attends and waits on its owner is a full personal servant, worth an industry of its own, though it serves the home alone and not work at large.

Who is paid. Families buy it like any large appliance, and it is easy enough to copy that the appliance makers with factories, shops and trusted brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electric-Automatic Household Robot Cook: An automated kitchen appliance that prepares complete meals at home without a human cook.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electric-Automatic Household Robot Cook

Ely's Automatic Housemaid, Elizabeth Bellamy · 1899

An automated kitchen appliance that prepares complete meals at home without a human cook.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An appliance that cooks whole meals at home takes over a daily chore, a narrower job than a full servant does.

Who is paid. Families buy it, and since it can be copied the kitchen-appliance makers with factories, shops and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robotess: A humanoid machine built to look like a woman.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robotess

R.U.R., Karel Capek · 1920

A humanoid machine built to look like a woman.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. The description gives only a woman's shape, so it is judged as the artificial worker of the stories, which would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms buy them as labour, and since many could build such bodies once shown how, the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Wheel: A gigantic self-driving machine shaped like a single rolling wheel.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Wheel

The Metal Giants, Edmond Hamilton · 1926

A gigantic self-driving machine shaped like a single rolling wheel.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description gives this giant rolling machine no job, so it is judged as a heavy carrier of unusual shape, a niche.

Who is paid. Firms moving heavy loads are assumed to buy it, and as many could copy the shape the makers of heavy equipment with factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Psychophonic Nurse: A robot that looks after infants and young children.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Psychophonic Nurse

The Psychophonic Nurse, David H. Keller · 1928

A robot that looks after infants and young children.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Reliable care for infants and young children at home would be worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Families buy it, and since they are assumed to trust only known names with their children the established makers with strong brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robots Take Human Jobs: Machines take over paid work that people once did, pushing human workers out of their jobs.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robots Take Human Jobs

The Threat of the Robot, David H. Keller · 1929

Machines take over paid work that people once did, pushing human workers out of their jobs.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Machines pushing people out of paid work is a result of other technologies, not a technology that could be sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold here; the working robots themselves are judged under their own names.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space-Walkers: Rigid upright pods a person stands inside, peering out a viewport and working mechanical grabbers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space-Walkers

The Universe Wreckers, Edmond Hamilton · 1930

Rigid upright pods a person stands inside, peering out a viewport and working mechanical grabbers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A pod with mechanical grabbers lets a person work outside a spacecraft, serving only the few who work there.

Who is paid. Firms working in space are assumed to buy them for their crews, and many makers could build such pods once the idea is shown.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Dressing Machines: Largely self-directed robots that help a person put on everyday clothes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dressing Machines

The Revolt of the Machines, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931

Largely self-directed robots that help a person put on everyday clothes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Help with getting dressed alone is a convenience for most people, a narrower job than a full servant does.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and a machine that does this lone task is simple to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Living Machines: Mechanical workers that improve their own behaviour through experience instead of relying only on fixed programming.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Living Machines

The Mentanicals, Francis Flagg · 1934

Mechanical workers that improve their own behaviour through experience instead of relying only on fixed programming.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Mechanical workers that learn from experience could take on most kinds of human work, which would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms buy them as labour, and since many could build such bodies once shown how, the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mentanicals: Machines capable of genuine reasoning and reflection rather than merely following instructions.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mentanicals

The Mentanicals, Francis Flagg · 1934

Machines capable of genuine reasoning and reflection rather than merely following instructions.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that truly reasons and reflects could do most kinds of human work, which would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms buy them as labour, and since many could build such bodies once shown how, the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Android: An artificial being built to look like a person.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Android

The Cometeers, Jack Williamson · 1936

An artificial being built to look like a person.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. The description gives only the human form, so it is assumed to be the artificial person of the stories, able to do most kinds of human work, which would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms buy them as labour, and since many could build such bodies once shown how, the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Automat: A thinking robot, a machine built to act with a mind of its own.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automat

Mad Robot, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1936

A thinking robot, a machine built to act with a mind of its own.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A robot that thinks for itself could do most kinds of human work, which would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms buy them as labour, and since many could build such bodies once shown how, the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Atomic-Powered Lifting Suits: Powered outer frames that let a person walk normally under twice Earth's pull.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atomic-Powered Lifting Suits

The Brain Pirates, John W. Campbell · 1938

Powered outer frames that let a person walk normally under twice Earth's pull.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Frames that let people walk under a heavier pull serve only the few who work on such worlds.

Who is paid. Firms working there buy them for their crews, and powered frames could be built by many makers once the idea is shown.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Cook: A domestic robot that prepares and cooks meals.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Cook

Helen O'Loy, Lester del Rey · 1938

A domestic robot that prepares and cooks meals.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A home robot that cooks the family's meals would take over the large daily chore.

Who is paid. Families buy it, and since it can be copied the kitchen-appliance makers with factories, shops and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electrical Valet: A robot servant that helps its master put on clothes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electrical Valet

The Lord of Tranerica, Stanton A. Coblentz · 1939

A robot servant that helps its master put on clothes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Help with getting dressed alone is a convenience for most people, a narrower job than a full servant does.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and a machine that does this lone task is simple to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Chef: A machine that invents and prepares meals entirely by itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Chef

Robinc, Anthony Boucher · 1943

A machine that invents and prepares meals entirely by itself.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that invents and cooks meals by itself, assumed here to be for the home, would take over the large daily chore.

Who is paid. Families buy it, and since it can be copied the kitchen-appliance makers with factories, shops and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sea Robot: A huge machine built to operate underwater in the open ocean.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sea Robot

The Metal Monster (Jarvis), E.K. Jarvis · 1943

A huge machine built to operate underwater in the open ocean.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A huge machine that works in the open ocean would lower the cost of building, mining and repair under the sea, assuming that is its use.

Who is paid. Offshore firms buy it, and since many could build one the marine-equipment makers with yards and fleets collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mining Worm (Robot): A long, segmented self-directed machine that burrows through rock to dig out ore.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mining Worm (Robot)

Love Among The Robots, Emmett McDowell · 1946

A long, segmented self-directed machine that burrows through rock to dig out ore.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Digging out ore with no crew would cut the cost of mining and earthworks.

Who is paid. Mining and building firms buy them, and the heavy-equipment makers who already supply those firms can copy the idea and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Butler-Valet Robot: A robot that performs the duties of a personal manservant.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Butler-Valet Robot

The Jester, William Tenn · 1951

A robot that performs the duties of a personal manservant.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that takes over housework would be worth an industry of its own, though it serves the home alone and not work at large.

Who is paid. Families buy it like any large appliance, and it is easy enough to copy that the appliance makers with factories, shops and trusted brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Lead-Bodied Android: A humanoid machine with a heavy shielded body built to work amid radioactive material.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lead-Bodied Android

Robots of the World! Arise!, Mari Wolf · 1952

A humanoid machine with a heavy shielded body built to work amid radioactive material.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A humanlike machine with a shielded body is built only for work amid radioactive material, a narrow trade unlike the general worker.

Who is paid. Firms that run such plants buy it, and the makers of ordinary humanlike machines could add the shielding and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Tennis Player: A self-directed machine that plays full tennis matches against people.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Tennis Player

Manners of the Age, H.B. Fyfe · 1952

A self-directed machine that plays full tennis matches against people.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine that plays full matches is a tireless practice partner, a convenience for players.

Who is paid. Players and clubs are assumed to buy it much like sports gear, and many makers could build one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robotic Law Tape Safety Valve: A built-in alarm signal that stops a robot as it starts to consider breaking its rules of conduct.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robotic Law Tape Safety Valve

Robot Unwanted, Daniel Keyes · 1952

A built-in alarm signal that stops a robot as it starts to consider breaking its rules of conduct.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An alarm that stops a robot before it breaks its rules is a safety feature, not a product by itself.

Who is paid. Owners pay for it within the price of the robot, and any maker could include it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Self-Repairing Robot: A machine that diagnoses its own breakdowns and fixes itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Self-Repairing Robot

Accidental Flight, W.F. Wallace · 1952

A machine that diagnoses its own breakdowns and fixes itself.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Finding and fixing its own faults is a useful feature that saves repair work, not a product by itself.

Who is paid. Owners pay for it within the price of the robot, assumed here to be a working machine bought by firms, and any maker could include it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Positronic Motor: A car power unit fused with its own thinking circuitry so the vehicle can drive and decide for itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Positronic Motor

Sally, Isaac Asimov · 1953

A car power unit fused with its own thinking circuitry so the vehicle can drive and decide for itself.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A car that drives and decides for itself would be worth an industry of its own and would change the cost of getting about.

Who is paid. Drivers buy the cars, and since nothing in the description stops others building such a thinking unit once it is shown to work, the car makers with factories, dealers and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robant: A mechanical household attendant.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robant

The Impossible Planet, Philip K. Dick · 1953

A mechanical household attendant.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A mechanical household attendant would be worth an industry of its own, though it serves the home alone and not work at large.

Who is paid. Families buy it like any large appliance, and it is easy enough to copy that the appliance makers with factories, shops and trusted brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Automatic Companion Robot: A machine that keeps a person company in place of an animal or a human friend.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automatic Companion Robot

The Midas Plague, Frederik Pohl · 1954

A machine that keeps a person company in place of an animal or a human friend.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Company for lonely people is worth an industry of its own, though it does not meet a basic need for most.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and as many could make such machines the firms with factories and well-liked brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Maid-Robot: A mechanical servant that helps a woman dress, groom and keep her things in order.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Maid-Robot

The Midas Plague, Frederik Pohl · 1954

A mechanical servant that helps a woman dress, groom and keep her things in order.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A servant that dresses, grooms and tidies for its owner is judged as the personal attendant of the home, worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Families buy it like any large appliance, and it is easy enough to copy that the appliance makers with factories, shops and trusted brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Metal Insects: Tiny winged machines that fly and act on their own.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Metal Insects

The Invincible, Stanislaw Lem · 1954

Tiny winged machines that fly and act on their own.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. These tiny self-acting flyers are the single machines of the same story's drifting swarm, so they are judged with it as a tool under an owner's direction, which the story doubts, that would open new kinds of work.

Who is paid. Firms buy them for their work, and as nothing says they cannot be copied the makers with precision factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Farmer: A person-shaped machine that tends crops and does field work in place of human farmhands.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Farmer

The Turning Wheel, Philip K. Dick · 1954

A person-shaped machine that tends crops and does field work in place of human farmhands.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that does field work in place of farmhands would cut the labour cost of growing food across farming.

Who is paid. Farmers buy them, and since many could build them the farm-equipment makers with dealers and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Self-Selling Robot: A machine that pitches itself and persuades customers to buy it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Self-Selling Robot

Sales Pitch, Philip K. Dick · 1954

A machine that pitches itself and persuades customers to buy it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine that argues its own case to buyers is a selling trick built into the product, a feature.

Who is paid. The maker pays for it as part of the cost of selling, and any maker could add it, so nothing extra is kept.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mechavalet: A fully mechanical attendant that helps its owner get dressed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mechavalet

The Angry House, Richard R. Smith · 1955

A fully mechanical attendant that helps its owner get dressed.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Help with getting dressed is a convenience for a few.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and a machine that does this lone task is simple to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Nanny Robot: A machine that looks after children, with an unexpectedly combative streak toward rival models.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nanny Robot

Nanny, Philip K. Dick · 1955

A machine that looks after children, with an unexpectedly combative streak toward rival models.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Reliable care for children at home would be worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Families buy it, and since they are assumed to trust only known names with their children the established makers with strong brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Raw Material-Tropic: A machine instinct that draws automated systems toward sources of useful raw materials.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Raw Material-Tropic

Autofac, Philip K. Dick · 1955

A machine instinct that draws automated systems toward sources of useful raw materials.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An urge that draws automated plant toward raw materials is a feature, valued only as part of the plant.

Who is paid. Firms that own the plant pay for it in the price, and any maker of such plant could add it, so nothing more is kept for it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Factory Representative: A mobile machine that speaks and negotiates on behalf of an automated factory.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Factory Representative

Autofac, Philip K. Dick · 1955

A mobile machine that speaks and negotiates on behalf of an automated factory.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine that speaks and bargains for an automated factory is a fitting of that factory, valued only as part of it.

Who is paid. The factory's owners pay for it in the price of the plant, and any builder of such plant could add it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Blue Collar Robot (Self-Repairing): A self-maintaining labourer machine left to seek out paid jobs for itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Blue Collar Robot (Self-Repairing)

The Velvet Glove, Harry Harrison · 1956

A self-maintaining labourer machine left to seek out paid jobs for itself.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A labourer machine that keeps itself in repair and finds its own jobs could do most manual work, changing how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms buy them as labour, and since many could build such bodies once shown how, the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Eager Beaver: A cheerful general-purpose household robot that pitches in with chores.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Eager Beaver

The Door Into Summer, Robert Heinlein · 1956

A cheerful general-purpose household robot that pitches in with chores.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that takes over housework would be worth an industry of its own, though it serves the home alone and not work at large.

Who is paid. Families buy it like any large appliance, and it is easy enough to copy that the appliance makers with factories, shops and trusted brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Flexible Frank: A versatile home robot that can be set to do almost any domestic task.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flexible Frank

The Door Into Summer, Robert Heinlein · 1956

A versatile home robot that can be set to do almost any domestic task.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that takes over housework would be worth an industry of its own, though it serves the home alone and not work at large.

Who is paid. Families buy it like any large appliance, and it is easy enough to copy that the appliance makers with factories, shops and trusted brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Trash Collectors: Robots that drive refuse trucks and empty bins along collection routes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Trash Collectors

The Velvet Glove, Harry Harrison · 1956

Robots that drive refuse trucks and empty bins along collection routes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Robots that drive the trucks and empty the bins would cut the labour cost of a service every town needs.

Who is paid. Towns pay for refuse collection, and the firms that already hold those contracts and fleets collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Glass Bees: Tiny flying machines the size of a nut that imitate insects.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Glass Bees

The Glass Bees, Ernst Junger · 1957

Tiny flying machines the size of a nut that imitate insects.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tiny imitation insect is assumed here to be a curiosity or ornament, since the description gives it no job.

Who is paid. People would buy it as a novelty, and once shown possible many workshops could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Proselytizing Robot: A machine missionary sent to spread a faith where human preachers would be turned away.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Proselytizing Robot

Cities in Flight, James Blish · 1957

A machine missionary sent to spread a faith where human preachers would be turned away.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine missionary serves only the few faiths that would send one.

Who is paid. Churches are assumed to buy it as any organisation would, and nothing about it would be hard to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Police Robot: A fully self-directed humanoid machine that works as a police officer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Police Robot

Arm of the Law, Harry Harrison · 1958

A fully self-directed humanoid machine that works as a police officer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that does a police officer's work would change the cost of policing.

Who is paid. Governments pay, and the firms that already supply police and armies would build it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Hands Free Helmet: A suit helmet whose controls respond to movements of the wearer's head, leaving the hands free.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hands Free Helmet

Starship Troopers, Robert Heinlein · 1959

A suit helmet whose controls respond to movements of the wearer's head, leaving the hands free.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Helmet controls worked by head movement are a handy feature of a suit.

Who is paid. It is assumed to be military kit, so armies pay and the suit makers that already hold their contracts supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robotic Trash Can: A smart waste bin that cleans its surroundings by itself and rules on people's littering.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robotic Trash Can

Robot Justice, Harry Harrison · 1959

A smart waste bin that cleans its surroundings by itself and rules on people's littering.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A bin that cleans the street around it and deals with littering would cut the cost of keeping public places clean.

Who is paid. Towns pay for street cleaning, and the firms that already hold those contracts collect; the judging of litterers is assumed to stay with the town.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Jump Harness: A backpack-sized unit that gives the wearer a powered boost when leaping.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Jump Harness

Stranger in a Strange Land, Robert Heinlein · 1961

A backpack-sized unit that gives the wearer a powered boost when leaping.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A powered boost when leaping is a niche aid, useful mainly where the pull of gravity is weak.

Who is paid. It is assumed that people buy it for themselves, and many makers could build such a pack.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Pry-Vie (Robotic Detective): A robot that works as a private investigator.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pry-Vie (Robotic Detective)

Clans of the Alphane Moon, Philip K. Dick · 1964

A robot that works as a private investigator.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A robot private investigator serves a narrow trade.

Who is paid. Detective firms buy it, and many makers could build such a machine, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Reporting Machine: A mobile robot that roams to gather and file news stories.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Reporting Machine

The Simulacra, Philip K. Dick · 1964

A mobile robot that roams to gather and file news stories.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A robot that gathers and files news serves a narrow trade.

Who is paid. News firms buy it, and many makers could build such a machine, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Autonomic Interviewer: A robot that interviews people for news coverage.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Autonomic Interviewer

The Zap Gun, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A robot that interviews people for news coverage.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A robot that asks the questions for a news story saves a reporter some time, a niche.

Who is paid. News firms buy it, and many makers could build such a machine, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Teddy Bear Robot: A robot teddy given to every child that shapes their values.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Teddy Bear Robot

I Always Do What Teddy Says, Harry Harrison · 1965

A robot teddy given to every child that shapes their values.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A bear given to every child to shape what they value is a tool of upbringing on the scale of schooling, assuming the state hands it out.

Who is paid. The state is assumed to pay since every child gets one, and the firms that already supply schools and toys collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Thumper: A stake with a rhythmic hammer that draws giant desert creatures.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Thumper

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A stake with a rhythmic hammer that draws giant desert creatures.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A stake that draws giant desert creatures by hammering is useful only on the world where they live.

Who is paid. Travellers and harvesting crews there are assumed to buy it, and anyone could make so simple a device.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robant Bill Collector: A relentless robot that chases people for unpaid debts.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robant Bill Collector

Now Wait For Last Year, Philip K. Dick · 1966

A relentless robot that chases people for unpaid debts.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A robot that chases debtors serves a narrow trade.

Who is paid. Lenders and collectors pay, and such a machine is easy for many makers to build.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Android Safety Mechanism: A built-in cutoff that briefly disables an artificial human.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Android Safety Mechanism

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, Philip K. Dick · 1968

A built-in cutoff that briefly disables an artificial human.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cutoff that briefly stops an artificial human is a safety feature, valued only as part of the machine.

Who is paid. Firms that own such machines pay for it in the price, and any maker of the machines can fit it, so nothing more is kept for it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electrical Grandmother (Robot Grandma): A humanlike robot caretaker who looks after a family's children.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electrical Grandmother (Robot Grandma)

I Sing The Body Electric!, Ray Bradbury · 1969

A humanlike robot caretaker who looks after a family's children.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A robot that looks after children would be worth an industry of its own to families.

Who is paid. Families buy it, and since they are assumed to trust only known names with their children the established makers with strong brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robotic Horse - Faithful Cybernetic Companion: A loyal mechanical steed built to look like a horse.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robotic Horse - Faithful Cybernetic Companion

The Warlock in Spite of Himself, Christopher Stasheff · 1969

A loyal mechanical steed built to look like a horse.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A mechanical horse that is loyal to its rider is a companion and a mount for those who want one, not a need.

Who is paid. Households buy it much like an imitation animal, and many workshops could make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Synthetic Flesh: A lifelike skin covering for robots in place of hard plastic.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Synthetic Flesh

Super-Toys Last All Summer Long, Brian Aldiss · 1969

A lifelike skin covering for robots in place of hard plastic.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Lifelike flesh in place of hard plastic is a finish that makes a robot pleasant to look at and touch, a feature.

Who is paid. Robot makers pay for it as a part of the machines they sell to firms, and any of them could fit it, so nothing extra is kept.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Teddy: A clever, mobile robot toy bear that acts as a child's companion.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Teddy

Super-Toys Last All Summer Long, Brian Aldiss · 1969

A clever, mobile robot toy bear that acts as a child's companion.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A clever toy bear that keeps a child company is a toy, however well loved, not a need.

Who is paid. Parents buy it much like any toy, and many makers could build one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robutler: A robot that serves as a household butler.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robutler

The Stainless Steel Rat's Revenge, Harry Harrison · 1970

A robot that serves as a household butler.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A robot butler does the run of household work, worth an industry of its own, though it is the general machine set to one part of life.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and as many could make such machines the firms with factories and well-liked brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Autobutle: A mechanical servant that handles household tasks.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Autobutle

The Godmakers, Frank Herbert · 1972

A mechanical servant that handles household tasks.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that takes over housework would be worth an industry of its own, though it serves the home alone and not work at large.

Who is paid. Families buy it like any large appliance, and it is easy enough to copy that the appliance makers with factories, shops and trusted brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spider Tripod Robot: A three-legged robot of alien origin.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spider Tripod Robot

Rendezvous With Rama, Arthur C. Clarke · 1972

A three-legged robot of alien origin.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description gives this alien walker no job, so it is judged as a niche walking machine.

Who is paid. Firms with odd jobs for it are assumed to buy it, and once one was studied many makers could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Droid (Star Wars): A general word for the many kinds of working robots in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Droid (Star Wars)

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

A general word for the many kinds of working robots in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Working robots of many kinds doing most jobs would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms buy them as labour, and since many could build such bodies once shown how, the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of R2-D2 (Artoo-Detoo): A small, nimble utility robot, now a byword for such machines.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

R2-D2 (Artoo-Detoo)

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

A small, nimble utility robot, now a byword for such machines.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A small, nimble utility robot is assumed to be the general working robot of its story, able to take on most kinds of work.

Who is paid. Firms buy them as labour, and since many could build such bodies once shown how, the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Restraining Bolt: A fitted device that forces a robot to obey its owner.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Restraining Bolt

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

A fitted device that forces a robot to obey its owner.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A device that forces a robot to obey is a control fitting, valued only as part of the robot.

Who is paid. Firms that own robots pay for it, and any maker of robots can fit it, so nothing more is kept for it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Tagalong: A legged robotic pack that follows its owner and carries their load.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tagalong

In the Bowl, John Varley · 1976

A legged robotic pack that follows its owner and carries their load.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A legged pack that follows its owner and carries the load is a convenience for walkers and travellers.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and many makers could build one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spider Space Elevator Test Vehicle: A robotic climber that travels along an orbital tower's cable to check it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spider Space Elevator Test Vehicle

The Fountains of Paradise, Arthur C. Clarke · 1978

A robotic climber that travels along an orbital tower's cable to check it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A climber that runs along a tower's cable to check it is an inspection tool for that structure alone.

Who is paid. The tower's operator buys it, and many makers could build such a climber, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Telepresence Bulldozer: Earthmoving equipment on the lunar surface steered by an operator back home.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telepresence Bulldozer

Oath of Fealty, Jerry Pournelle (w/L. Niven · 1981

Earthmoving equipment on the lunar surface steered by an operator back home.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An earthmover on the moon steered from home serves only the few who would build there, and it still needs its operator.

Who is paid. Firms working there buy it, and remote controls for such machines are easy for many makers to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Repair Drone: Self-directed robots that fix damage, including deliberate sabotage.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Repair Drone

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

Self-directed robots that fix damage, including deliberate sabotage.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Robots that mend damage without a crew would cut the cost of keeping ships and plant running.

Who is paid. Ship and plant operators buy them, and as the machines can be copied the established makers that already equip and service those operators collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Digger Worm: A snake-like machine that burrows through rock to extract ore.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Digger Worm

With Friends Like These, Connie Willis · 1985

A snake-like machine that burrows through rock to extract ore.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Digging and hauling with no crew would cut the cost of mining and earthworks.

Who is paid. Mining and building firms buy them, and the heavy-equipment makers who already supply those firms can copy the idea and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Military Spider: A remotely driven many-legged robot used by the military.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Military Spider

A Day For Damnation, David Gerrold · 1985

A remotely driven many-legged robot used by the military.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A many-legged robot driven from afar is assumed to be an army's scout and carrier, since the description does not say it is armed.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and the firms that already hold their supply contracts would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sniffer Robot: A small robot that collects smells at crime scenes for forensic testing.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sniffer Robot

Runaway, Michael Crichton · 1985

A small robot that collects smells at crime scenes for forensic testing.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A small robot that gathers smells at a crime scene helps detectives a little, a niche.

Who is paid. Police forces pay, and the firms that already supply their laboratories collect what little is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of P-120 Reconnaissance Robot: A fast, quiet legged robot used for scouting in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

P-120 Reconnaissance Robot

A Season for Slaughter, David Gerrold · 1992

A fast, quiet legged robot used for scouting in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A fast, quiet legged scout spares soldiers some danger, a niche use.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and the firms that already hold their supply contracts would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Skrode: A wheeled mobility cart that carries beings who have no legs.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Skrode

A Fire Upon The Deep, Vernor Vinge · 1992

A wheeled mobility cart that carries beings who have no legs.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A wheeled cart that carries those without legs is a mobility aid, valuable to its few users but a niche.

Who is paid. The users buy it for themselves, and many makers could build such a cart, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Chemotactic Artificial Jellyfish: A soft swimming machine inspired by jellyfish that homes in on chosen chemicals in water.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chemotactic Artificial Jellyfish

Big Jelly, Rudy Rucker (w/B. Sterling) · 1994

A soft swimming machine inspired by jellyfish that homes in on chosen chemicals in water.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A swimming machine that finds chosen chemicals in water serves a narrow task such as tracing pollution.

Who is paid. Water firms and survey crews are assumed to buy it, and soft swimmers like this could be made by many laboratories.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Nurse Drone: A bigger airborne platform that recharges and supports a fleet of smaller drones.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nurse Drone

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

A bigger airborne platform that recharges and supports a fleet of smaller drones.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A larger flyer that recharges a fleet of small ones is support equipment, valued only as part of the fleet.

Who is paid. Firms that run pilotless craft pay for it as part of the fleet, and any maker can add it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Blurbflies (Sing. Blurbfly): Tiny flying robotic-biological creatures that deliver adverts to passers-by.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Blurbflies (Sing. Blurbfly)

Nymphomation, Jeff Noon · 2000

Tiny flying robotic-biological creatures that deliver adverts to passers-by.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Flying adverts are a new way to reach passers-by, a niche within advertising.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and once such fliers exist many firms could breed or build them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Automatic Hotel (Hotel Hendrix): A lodging run entirely by machines, from arrival to departure, with no human staff.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automatic Hotel (Hotel Hendrix)

Altered Carbon, Richard Morgan · 2003

A lodging run entirely by machines, from arrival to departure, with no human staff.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Serving guests with no staff would change the costs of the whole trade.

Who is paid. Hotel operators buy the machinery, and since many could build it the established makers that already equip and service such buildings collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mandroid: A robot built to look like a human.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mandroid

Altered Carbon, Richard Morgan · 2003

A robot built to look like a human.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. The description gives only the human form, so it is assumed to be the artificial person of the stories, able to do most kinds of human work, which would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms buy them as labour, and since many could build such bodies once shown how, the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Motorized Combat Boots: Powered military boots that carry the wearer along.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Motorized Combat Boots

Accelerando, Charles Stross · 2005

Powered military boots that carry the wearer along.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Powered boots that carry a soldier along are one piece of kit, a help on the march.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and the kit makers that already hold their contracts supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Amphibious Skimmer: A fictional armed drone that moves over land and water in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Amphibious Skimmer

Storm Thief, Chris Wooding · 2006

A fictional armed drone that moves over land and water in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An armed machine that crosses land and water with no crew aboard would be worth a class of weapon of its own.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and the arms makers that already hold defence contracts would build it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Municipal Cattle Remover: A city machine that lifts stray cows off streets and loads them for relocation.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Municipal Cattle Remover

Sagramanda, Alan Dean Foster · 2006

A city machine that lifts stray cows off streets and loads them for relocation.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine that clears stray cows from streets serves only the towns that have them.

Who is paid. Towns pay, and the firms that already supply their street vehicles would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Controllable Drone Army: A networked fleet of robotic helpers that one person directs through hand motions.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Controllable Drone Army

Daemon, Daniel Suarez · 2009

A networked fleet of robotic helpers that one person directs through hand motions.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A fleet of robot helpers directed by a single person would let small crews do the work of large ones.

Who is paid. Firms buy the fleet, and since the robots and the hand-motion controls can be copied the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robobug: A living insect fitted with electronics so it can be steered remotely.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robobug

The Golden City, John Twelve Hawks · 2009

A living insect fitted with electronics so it can be steered remotely.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A living insect steered from afar is assumed to be a tiny scout for spying and searching, a niche use.

Who is paid. Armies and rescue services are assumed to pay, and the firms that already supply their scouting gear would make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Medicine, biotech and longevity · 24
Illustration of Gyro-Hat: A spinning gyroscope hidden in a hat that keeps its wearer from swaying or falling.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gyro-Hat

An Experiment in Gyro-Hats, Ellis Parker Butler · 1926

A spinning gyroscope hidden in a hat that keeps its wearer from swaying or falling.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A hat that keeps its wearer steady is a novelty.

Who is paid. Wearers would buy it, and any workshop could fit a spinning wheel into a hat, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Corporol: A treatment that keeps a person's body intact and working over long periods without decay.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Corporol

A Race Through Time, Donald Wandrei · 1933

A treatment that keeps a person's body intact and working over long periods without decay.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. I took keeping the body intact and working without decay to mean holding off old age, which is about the deepest need there is.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and a new medicine is protected from copying for a long while, so its maker keeps much of the gain.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Designed Bacteria: An early story idea of germs engineered to harm a single species and no other.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Designed Bacteria

Seeds of the Dusk, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1937

An early story idea of germs engineered to harm a single species and no other.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A germ that harms only a chosen pest would change the cost of protecting crops and controlling disease carriers.

Who is paid. I assumed farmers and pest controllers buy it and not armies; germs can be cultured by many, so established farm chemical firms with the sales networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tectogenetic: Deliberately editing genomes to create entirely new kinds of living organisms.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tectogenetic

Crisis in Utopia, Norman L. Knight · 1940

Deliberately editing genomes to create entirely new kinds of living organisms.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Making new kinds of living things to order would serve farming, medicine and industry.

Who is paid. Firms would buy such organisms for their work, and once the method was known other laboratories could repeat it, so established seed, chemical and drug makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Chemelectric Afferent Nerve-Analogues: An engineered artificial skin that can sense touch.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chemelectric Afferent Nerve-Analogues

This Immortal, Roger Zelazny · 1966

An engineered artificial skin that can sense touch.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Skin that feels touch adds sensation to man-made skin, which stays a narrow part of medicine.

Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and makers of artificial limbs buy it; other materials firms could copy it, so established suppliers collect a modest margin.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Vivatape: A dressing that closes wounds seamlessly and aids healing around skin implants.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vivatape

Babel-17, Samuel R. Delany · 1966

A dressing that closes wounds seamlessly and aids healing around skin implants.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A dressing that closes wounds cleanly helps hospitals and fitters of implants, which is a narrow part of medicine.

Who is paid. Hospitals and clinics would buy it, and the firms that already supply wound dressings could all make it, so they collect a modest margin.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Killalc Pills: Tablets that cancel the effects of drinking alcohol.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Killalc Pills

The Stainless Steel Rat's Revenge, Harry Harrison · 1970

Tablets that cancel the effects of drinking alcohol.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Staying sober while drinking is a convenience for drinkers, not a need.

Who is paid. Drinkers would buy it for themselves, and a new drug is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ultramicrominiature Waldo: A device that scales a surgeon's hand motions down to tiny precise movements.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ultramicrominiature Waldo

Time Enough For Love, Robert Heinlein · 1973

A device that scales a surgeon's hand motions down to tiny precise movements.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A device that makes the surgeon's own movements finer improves some operations but leaves the surgeon in place, so it is a niche.

Who is paid. Hospitals would buy it, and other toolmakers could copy it, so established makers of surgical instruments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Anabolic Protoplaser: A medical tool that heals wounds with beams of light.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Anabolic Protoplaser

Spock, Messiah!, Theodore Cogswell (w/C. Spano · 1976

A medical tool that heals wounds with beams of light.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Closing wounds with light would replace stitches and shorten recovery across surgery and emergency care.

Who is paid. Hospitals and clinics would buy it, and other makers could copy the tool, so established surgical equipment firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ixian Sight Mask: A wearable device that gives vision to blind people.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ixian Sight Mask

Children of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1976

A wearable device that gives vision to blind people.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Giving sight back to blind people is worth an industry of its own, though most people would never need it.

Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and once the design was known other device makers could copy it, so established implant makers and eye clinics collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Tapeworm Tranquilizer: A small robotic device placed in the gut that releases calming medication.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tapeworm Tranquilizer

Revolution from Rosinante, Alexis Arnaldus Gilliland · 1981

A small robotic device placed in the gut that releases calming medication.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a handy way of taking a calming medicine, not a new medicine.

Who is paid. Patients would buy it, and other device and drug firms could make the same thing, so established makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Skull Alarm: An alarm implanted in the head that rouses the sleeper.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Skull Alarm

Millenium, John Varley · 1983

An alarm implanted in the head that rouses the sleeper.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An alarm inside the head does what a bedside clock does, so it is a convenience.

Who is paid. People would pay to have it fitted, and other firms could copy it, so established makers of medical devices collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Image-Amps: Eye enhancements that amplify faint light so the user can see at night.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Image-Amps

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

Eye enhancements that amplify faint light so the user can see at night.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Seeing at night is an extra and not a cure, which sets it apart from eyes that give sight back.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and other device makers could copy it, so established implant makers and eye clinics collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mirrorshades - Surgically Inset Glasses: Reflective lenses permanently set into the wearer's face over the eyes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mirrorshades - Surgically Inset Glasses

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

Reflective lenses permanently set into the wearer's face over the eyes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Lenses set into the face are a fashion choice for a few.

Who is paid. Wearers pay, and any clinic can fit them so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Selected Melanin Boosting: A cosmetic treatment that raises skin pigment to produce a chosen tan.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Selected Melanin Boosting

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

A cosmetic treatment that raises skin pigment to produce a chosen tan.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A chosen tan is a matter of looks, not need.

Who is paid. People would pay for themselves, and I assumed many salons and makers of cosmetics could offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Toothbud Transplant: Implanted teeth grown to copy the bite of other animals.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Toothbud Transplant

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

Implanted teeth grown to copy the bite of other animals.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Teeth shaped like those of other animals are a fashion, which sets them apart from plain replacement teeth.

Who is paid. Wearers would buy them, and I assumed many dental workshops could grow and fit them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Anti-Onc Cream: A topical cream that eliminates cancers of the skin.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Anti-Onc Cream

Earth, David Brin · 1990

A topical cream that eliminates cancers of the skin.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Skin cancers are among the commonest cancers, and a cream that clears them would replace a great deal of surgery.

Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and a new drug is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mammontelephas: An extinct woolly elephant brought back to life using its recovered DNA.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mammontelephas

Earth, David Brin · 1990

An extinct woolly elephant brought back to life using its recovered DNA.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A revived extinct animal is a draw for parks and collections, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Parks and zoos pay, and since the animals breed, established breeders and park owners collect instead of the reviver.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Diagnostic Sleeve: An arm cuff that identifies ailments and delivers the right drugs.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Diagnostic Sleeve

Gripping Hand, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1993

An arm cuff that identifies ailments and delivers the right drugs.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A cuff that finds what is wrong and gives the right drug would put everyday doctoring in the home.

Who is paid. I assumed people buy it for themselves; several firms could build it, so established makers of medical devices and the drug firms that fill it collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Video Unit: A camera wired into the optic nerve to restore sight to blind people.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Video Unit

Idoru, William Gibson · 1996

A camera wired into the optic nerve to restore sight to blind people.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Giving sight back to blind people is worth an industry of its own, though most people would never need it.

Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and once the design was known other device makers could copy it, so established implant makers and eye clinics collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Autosurgeon: A robotic machine that performs operations, with doctors on hand.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Autosurgeon

Altered Carbon, Richard Morgan · 2003

A robotic machine that performs operations, with doctors on hand.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that operates would cut the cost of surgery, but with doctors still on hand it changes only that part of medicine.

Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and clinics buy it; with the needed machine intelligence widely available several firms could build it, so established medical equipment makers and hospital groups collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pigoon: A genetically modified pig raised to supply organs for human transplant.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pigoon

Oryx and Crake, Margaret Atwood · 2003

A genetically modified pig raised to supply organs for human transplant.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A steady supply of organs for transplant would be worth an industry.

Who is paid. Patients pay, with insurers behind them, and since the animals breed, established farms and transplant centres collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spray-on Surgical Gloves: A coating sprayed onto a surgeon's hands to form a thin sterile glove.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spray-on Surgical Gloves

Altered Carbon, Richard Morgan · 2003

A coating sprayed onto a surgeon's hands to form a thin sterile glove.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sprayed glove is a small saving of time and fuss in the operating room.

Who is paid. Hospitals would buy it, and many makers of medical supplies could mix such a spray, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of EyePod: An external processor unit that drives an implant restoring sight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

EyePod

WWW: Wake, Robert J. Sawyer · 2009

An external processor unit that drives an implant restoring sight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Giving sight back to blind people is worth an industry of its own, though most people would never need it.

Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and once the design was known other device makers could copy it, so established implant makers and eye clinics collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Mind and neurotechnology · 9
Illustration of Menograph (Mind-Writer): Reads what someone is thinking and prints it as written text.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Menograph (Mind-Writer)

Ralph 124c 41 +, Hugo Gernsback · 1911

Reads what someone is thinking and prints it as written text.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Writing by thought is a convenience, since keyboards and speech already do the job.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would get it inside gadgets they buy, and once it works it is easy to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spectrumoscope: A device that feeds images straight into the visual areas of the brain so blind people can see.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spectrumoscope

Flamingo: A Drama of A.D. 1950, Clarence Edward Heller · 1930

A device that feeds images straight into the visual areas of the brain so blind people can see.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Giving sight to blind people would be an industry of its own and would change their lives.

Who is paid. Blind people and their families would pay, often through their health cover, and the hospitals and makers of medical devices would collect since the device could be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Emotion Meter: An instrument that reads a person's feelings objectively and reports them as measurable values.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Emotion Meter

The Emotion Meter, W. Varick Nevins, III · 1935

An instrument that reads a person's feelings objectively and reports them as measurable values.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An honest reading of what someone feels is a useful instrument for doctors, hirers and sellers, but a niche.

Who is paid. I assumed clinics and firms buy it, and an instrument like this is easy for other makers to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Control Helmet: Headgear that lets its wearer steer a robot by thought alone.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Control Helmet

Dawn of the Demigods, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1954

Headgear that lets its wearer steer a robot by thought alone.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Steering a machine by thought is a better set of controls, and hand controls already do the job.

Who is paid. Firms that run the machines would buy it, and once one maker had the link others could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Emotional Register (ER): A small disc on the forehead that displays how its wearer is feeling.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Emotional Register (ER)

The Primal Urge, Brian Aldiss · 1961

A small disc on the forehead that displays how its wearer is feeling.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A disc that shows how the wearer feels is a novelty with some social use.

Who is paid. Unlike the instrument for clinics this is worn by ordinary people, who would buy it themselves, and it is easy to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Effective Human Implant Technology (EHIT): A computer link wired straight into a person's brain.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Effective Human Implant Technology (EHIT)

Snake-Eyes, Tom Maddox · 1986

A computer link wired straight into a person's brain.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A computer link inside the head would do what pocket devices do now but faster and always on, worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay for the implant and the service, and the firms that already make devices and run networks could copy it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Direct Interface: A brain link that turns intended words into typed text on a computer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Direct Interface

Steel Beach, John Varley · 1992

A brain link that turns intended words into typed text on a computer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Writing by thought is a convenience, since keyboards and speech already do the job.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would get it inside gadgets they buy, and once it works it is easy to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Lucid Dreamer: A machine that makes sure the sleeper gets dreaming sleep.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lucid Dreamer

Starfish, Peter Watts · 1999

A machine that makes sure the sleeper gets dreaming sleep.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Making sure a sleeper dreams is a small aid to good rest.

Who is paid. Sleepers would buy it for themselves, and it is easy to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Third Eye: A display that conveys information through sensations on the user's skin.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Third Eye

Daemon, Daniel Suarez · 2009

A display that conveys information through sensations on the user's skin.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Screens and sounds already carry information, so feeling it on the skin is a convenience.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and once it existed many makers could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Transport and mobility · 51
Illustration of Walking Balloon: A gas-lifted craft with legs that strides lightly across rough terrain.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Walking Balloon

In the Deep of Time, George Parsons Lathrop · 1897

A gas-lifted craft with legs that strides lightly across rough terrain.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lighter-than-air craft is slow and carries little beside aircraft and trains, so it stays a niche; legs let this one cross rough ground.

Who is paid. Operators buy it, and airships are simple enough for many builders to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Aerocar: A small aircraft that private individuals fly themselves around in.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Aerocar

The Abduction of Alexandra Seine, Fred C. Smale · 1900

A small aircraft that private individuals fly themselves around in.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A private vehicle that flies its owner over the roads would be an industry of its own, though it mostly replaces trips people already make by car.

Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Aerocab (Aeroflyer): A battery-powered aircraft that ferries passengers around a city like a hired car.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Aerocab (Aeroflyer)

Ralph 124c 41 +, Hugo Gernsback · 1911

A battery-powered aircraft that ferries passengers around a city like a hired car.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Hired flight across a city, working as promised, would be an industry of its own beside road cabs.

Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the air cab buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gyrocar: A car on two wheels that keeps itself upright using a spinning gyroscope.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gyrocar

Two Boys in a Gyrocar the story of a New York to Paris motor race, Kenneth Brown · 1911

A car on two wheels that keeps itself upright using a spinning gyroscope.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Balancing on fewer wheels makes a vehicle narrower but does nothing an ordinary car cannot already do.

Who is paid. Drivers buy it, and a gyroscope is easy to copy, so the car makers that already own the factories and dealers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Aero Bus (Flying Bus): An aircraft carrying many passengers on regular routes like a city bus.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Aero Bus (Flying Bus)

What Not: A Prophetic Comedy, Rose Macaulay · 1918

An aircraft carrying many passengers on regular routes like a city bus.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Scheduled flights across a city for many passengers at once would be an industry of its own beside buses and trains.

Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the air bus buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Magnetic Elevator: A lift driven by strong electromagnets instead of cables.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magnetic Elevator

The Gods of Mars, Edgar Rice Burroughs · 1918

A lift driven by strong electromagnets instead of cables.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lift without cables is a better lift, useful in very tall buildings but a part of the building and not a new industry.

Who is paid. Building owners pay for it, and the lift makers that already fit and service lifts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Flying Platform: Plain flat panels that lift off and hold position in midair, serving as flying rafts.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flying Platform

Locked Worlds, Edmond Hamilton · 1929

Plain flat panels that lift off and hold position in midair, serving as flying rafts.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A flat panel that lifts and holds still in the air is a small flying raft, useful for odd jobs and short hops rather than everyday travel.

Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of O-220: An exceptionally light rigid airship built for long-range exploration flights.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

O-220

Tarzan at the Eath's Core, Edgar Rice Burroughs · 1929

An exceptionally light rigid airship built for long-range exploration flights.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lighter-than-air craft is slow and carries little beside aircraft and trains, so it stays a niche; this one is built for long exploring flights.

Who is paid. Operators buy it, and airships are simple enough for many builders to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Centipede-Machine: A vehicle that walks on many jointed legs instead of rolling on wheels.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Centipede-Machine

Monsters of Mars, Edmond Hamilton · 1931

A vehicle that walks on many jointed legs instead of rolling on wheels.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A vehicle on many legs can cross ground that stops wheels, which matters in a few rough places.

Who is paid. Firms and armies working on rough ground buy it, and once walking machines work many builders could make them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Pneumatic Tube Station: Sealed passenger capsules blown at speed through air-pressure tubes between stations.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pneumatic Tube Station

Exiles of the Moon, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931

Sealed passenger capsules blown at speed through air-pressure tubes between stations.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Fast capsules in sealed tubes would rival trains and aircraft on their routes, which changes the cost of travel between cities.

Who is paid. Governments pay for a public way of this size, and the large builders that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Skycar: A small privately owned aircraft that a person uses like a car for daily trips.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Skycar

Prima Donna 1980, Bernard Brown · 1931

A small privately owned aircraft that a person uses like a car for daily trips.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A private aircraft used like a car for daily trips would be an industry of its own, though it mostly replaces trips people already make by car.

Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Air-Car: A private vehicle that lifts off and flies its owner through the air instead of driving on roads.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Air-Car

A Matter of Size, Harry Bates · 1934

A private vehicle that lifts off and flies its owner through the air instead of driving on roads.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A private vehicle that flies its owner over the roads would be an industry of its own, though it mostly replaces trips people already make by car.

Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Volplane: A small craft that ferries people across the lunar surface.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Volplane

Blood of the Moon, Ray Cummings · 1936

A small craft that ferries people across the lunar surface.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A ferry across the lunar surface serves only the few people who are on the Moon.

Who is paid. Operators of lunar bases buy it, and any builder of space vehicles could make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Air Scooter: A one-person craft that lets its rider fly short hops through the air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Air Scooter

Space Double, Nat Schachner · 1940

A one-person craft that lets its rider fly short hops through the air.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description promises only short hops, so it is a sport and a convenience rather than a way most people would travel.

Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Camden Speedster: A road car that can also cross water and leap briefly into the air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Camden Speedster

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

A road car that can also cross water and leap briefly into the air.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a road car with short hops over water and through the air added, which is a thrill more than a new way to travel.

Who is paid. Drivers buy it, and since it only leaps briefly rather than flies, it is an ordinary car feature that the makers with factories and dealers collect on.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Flitter: A small craft for quick hops over short distances.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flitter

Vortex Blaster, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1941

A small craft for quick hops over short distances.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description promises only short hops, so it is a sport and a convenience rather than a way most people would travel.

Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gyrocab: A taxi that flies passengers through the air on rotors.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gyrocab

You Are Forbidden!, Jerry Shelton · 1947

A taxi that flies passengers through the air on rotors.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Hired flight across a city, working as promised, would be an industry of its own beside road cabs.

Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the air cab buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Skimmer: A craft that glides just above the ground on a cushion of lift.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Skimmer

Lost Ulysses, W.L. Bade · 1949

A craft that glides just above the ground on a cushion of lift.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Riding on a cushion of lift suits marsh, shallows and ice but is noisier and thirstier than wheels elsewhere, so it stays a niche.

Who is paid. Operators buy it, and many builders can make a cushion craft, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Two-Wheeled Ground Car: A self-balancing two-wheeler with a closed cabin, somewhere between a motorbike and a car.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Two-Wheeled Ground Car

First Lensman, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1950

A self-balancing two-wheeler with a closed cabin, somewhere between a motorbike and a car.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A narrow self-balancing vehicle is a handy way round town but does little that a small car or motorbike does not.

Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Lunocycle (Lunar Bicycle): A pedal cycle modified for riding across the Moon's surface.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lunocycle (Lunar Bicycle)

The Rolling Stones, Robert Heinlein · 1952

A pedal cycle modified for riding across the Moon's surface.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A pedal cycle for the Moon serves only the few people who are there.

Who is paid. I assume settlers buy it for themselves, and any cycle maker could build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Self-Cleaning Autonomous Car: A driverless car that washes and tidies itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Self-Cleaning Autonomous Car

Sally, Isaac Asimov · 1953

A driverless car that washes and tidies itself.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A car that needs no driver gives back the hours spent at the wheel and opens car travel to people who cannot drive, which is worth an industry of its own; cleaning itself is a small extra.

Who is paid. Owners buy it, and since several firms can build a driving system once it is shown to work, the car makers that already own factories, dealers and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Copter Harness: A strap-on rotor rig that lets one person fly.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Copter Harness

The Star Beast, Robert Heinlein · 1954

A strap-on rotor rig that lets one person fly.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A rig that lets a person fly wherever they please, working as promised, would be an industry of its own as the motorbike is; the description gives no limit on range or weather, so I assume there is no such limit.

Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Guide-Beam: A remote signal that steers a passenger vehicle along its route without a driver's input.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Guide-Beam

Time Pawn, Philip K. Dick · 1954

A remote signal that steers a passenger vehicle along its route without a driver's input.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A road that does the driving would give every car on it the gains of driverless travel, but only where such roads are built.

Who is paid. Governments pay for roads, and the control gear is not hard to copy, so the road builders and signalling suppliers that already hold public works contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hopper: A vehicle that bounds along on one leg, using spinning blades to stay aloft longer between hops.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hopper

Lucky Starr and the Oceans of Venus, Isaac Asimov · 1954

A vehicle that bounds along on one leg, using spinning blades to stay aloft longer between hops.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A vehicle that bounds along on a lone leg suits rough ground where wheels fail, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Riders buy it, and many workshops could build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Storer-Gulls Wings: Lightweight strap-on wings that let Moon settlers fly under their own power inside large caverns.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Storer-Gulls Wings

The Menace From Earth, Robert Heinlein · 1957

Lightweight strap-on wings that let Moon settlers fly under their own power inside large caverns.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Flying by muscle power inside lunar caverns is a sport for the few people who live there.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and many workshops could build it once it is shown to work, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Gyro Two-Wheeled Truck: A lorry balanced upright on only a pair of wheels by spinning gyroscopes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gyro Two-Wheeled Truck

The Sign of the Tiger, Alan Nourse (w/Meyer · 1958

A lorry balanced upright on only a pair of wheels by spinning gyroscopes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Balancing on fewer wheels makes a vehicle narrower but does nothing an ordinary car cannot already do.

Who is paid. Because this one hauls freight, haulage firms buy it, and a gyroscope is easy to copy, so the truck makers that already own the factories and dealers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Dust-Cruiser: A larger lunar vessel that carries passengers across crater basins filled with fine dust.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dust-Cruiser

A Fall of Moondust, Arthur C. Clarke · 1961

A larger lunar vessel that carries passengers across crater basins filled with fine dust.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A vehicle for crossing lunar dust serves only the few people who are on the Moon.

Who is paid. Operators of lunar bases and tours buy it, and any builder of space vehicles could make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Dust-Ski: A light vehicle that skims quickly over loose powdery ground on the Moon.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dust-Ski

A Fall of Moondust, Arthur C. Clarke · 1961

A light vehicle that skims quickly over loose powdery ground on the Moon.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A vehicle for crossing lunar dust serves only the few people who are on the Moon.

Who is paid. Operators of lunar bases and tours buy it, and any builder of space vehicles could make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Surface Slider: A small light craft for short surface trips.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Surface Slider

The Star King, Jack Vance · 1964

A small light craft for short surface trips.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description limits it to short surface trips, so it is a small runabout.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and many workshops could build it once it is shown to work, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Radson Skimmer: A small low-flying craft for a few passengers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Radson Skimmer

This Immortal, Roger Zelazny · 1966

A small low-flying craft for a few passengers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A small craft that flies a few people low over the roads would be an industry of its own, though it mostly replaces trips people already make by car; I assume it is privately owned.

Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Skycycle: A motorcycle-style personal flying vehicle.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Skycycle

Handicap, Larry Niven · 1967

A motorcycle-style personal flying vehicle.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Free personal flight with no limit stated would be an industry of its own, replacing many trips now made by car.

Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Flight Stick: A minimal one-person flying craft reduced to its essentials.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flight Stick

The Flight of the Horse, Larry Niven · 1969

A minimal one-person flying craft reduced to its essentials.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A rig that lets a person fly wherever they please, working as promised, would be an industry of its own as the motorbike is; the description gives no limit on range or weather, so I assume there is no such limit.

Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gyrocar (Gyro): A single-wheeled car kept upright by a spinning gyroscope.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gyrocar (Gyro)

The Ring, Piers Anthony (w/R. Margroff · 1969

A single-wheeled car kept upright by a spinning gyroscope.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Balancing on fewer wheels makes a vehicle narrower but does nothing an ordinary car cannot already do.

Who is paid. Drivers buy it, and a gyroscope is easy to copy, so the car makers that already own the factories and dealers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Rapid-Transit Hover Blimp: A floating airship used as mass transit for commuters.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rapid-Transit Hover Blimp

Galactic Pot-Healer, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A floating airship used as mass transit for commuters.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lighter-than-air craft is slow and carries little beside aircraft and trains, so it stays a niche; this one carries commuters.

Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the airship line buys it and charges riders, and any workshop could build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Flywheel Cycle: A motorbike that runs on energy stored in a spinning wheel.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flywheel Cycle

The Stainless Steel Rat's Revenge, Harry Harrison · 1970

A motorbike that runs on energy stored in a spinning wheel.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A motorbike that stores its energy in a spinning wheel is another way to power a bike, not a new use for it.

Who is paid. Riders buy it, and a flywheel is plain engineering many firms could copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Riding Robot: A two-legged walking machine that carries one rider.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Riding Robot

The Stainless Steel Rat's Revenge, Harry Harrison · 1970

A two-legged walking machine that carries one rider.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A walking mount for a lone rider goes where wheels cannot, which is a niche beside cars and bikes.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and many workshops could build it once it is shown to work, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Skyhook: A hybrid aircraft combining an airship with winged flight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Skyhook

West of Honor, Jerry Pournelle · 1976

A hybrid aircraft combining an airship with winged flight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lighter-than-air craft is slow and carries little beside aircraft and trains, so it stays a niche; adding wings helps it carry more.

Who is paid. Operators buy it, and airships are simple enough for many builders to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Flying Car: A vertical take-off police flying car.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flying Car

Blade Runner, Ridley Scott · 1982

A vertical take-off police flying car.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as the flying car of the story's city, which would be an industry of its own; the police craft described is only one use of it.

Who is paid. This one is a police craft, so the government pays, and the vehicle makers that already hold police fleet contracts collect because the craft can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hushicopter: A helicopter that flies almost without sound.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hushicopter

Fantastic Voyage II: Destination Brain, Isaac Asimov · 1987

A helicopter that flies almost without sound.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Silence would let helicopters work in places that now refuse them, but they would still be costly to fly, so I judge it a better helicopter rather than a new industry.

Who is paid. Operators and police forces buy it, and the established helicopter builders collect once the quieting method is known.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Transport Walkers: Single-rider vehicles that walk on many legs.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Transport Walkers

A Little Further Up The Fox..., George M. Ewing · 1987

Single-rider vehicles that walk on many legs.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A walking vehicle for a lone rider goes where wheels cannot, which is a niche beside cars and bikes.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and many workshops could build it once it is shown to work, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hoverlimo: A hire vehicle riding on an air cushion, with a subservient onboard assistant.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hoverlimo

Steel Beach, John Varley · 1992

A hire vehicle riding on an air cushion, with a subservient onboard assistant.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Riding on a cushion of air suits marsh, shallows and ice but is noisier and thirstier than wheels elsewhere, so it stays a niche.

Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the hire car buys it and charges riders, and any workshop could build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Smartwheels: Wheels whose spokes extend and retract to smooth out rough ground.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Smartwheels

Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992

Wheels whose spokes extend and retract to smooth out rough ground.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Wheels that smooth out rough ground are a comfort on bad roads.

Who is paid. Operators of vehicles on rough ground buy them, and many wheel makers could build them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Antiturbulence Wings: Aircraft wings that actively smooth out bumpy air for a gentler ride.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Antiturbulence Wings

Deep Eddy, Bruce Sterling · 1993

Aircraft wings that actively smooth out bumpy air for a gentler ride.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A smoother ride is a comfort for passengers and saves a little wear, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. Airlines pay for it through the aircraft, and the established aircraft builders fit it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Flexible Car Map: A bendable map display that pops out of a car's dashboard.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flexible Car Map

Heavy Weather, Bruce Sterling · 1994

A bendable map display that pops out of a car's dashboard.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Route guidance in the car is a convenience, and a screen that bends and pops out adds only a little to it.

Who is paid. Drivers pay for it with the car, and the car makers and the firms that already hold maps of every road collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Smart Piston Spokes: A vehicle that moves on sensing piston legs that adjust to rough ground.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Smart Piston Spokes

Heavy Weather, Bruce Sterling · 1994

A vehicle that moves on sensing piston legs that adjust to rough ground.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Legs that feel the ground carry a vehicle over rough country, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Operators buy it for their work, and many builders could make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Chevaline: A single-rider walking robot mount built in the form of a horse.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chevaline

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

A single-rider walking robot mount built in the form of a horse.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A robot horse for a lone rider is a pleasure mount and a way across rough ground, not everyday transport.

Who is paid. Riders buy it, and once walking machines work many firms could build them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Beetle: An airship with a rigid protective outer shell.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Beetle

Saturn's Race, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes) · 2000

An airship with a rigid protective outer shell.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A hard shell makes an airship tougher, but airships remain a niche for slow heavy loads and sightseeing.

Who is paid. Cargo and tour operators buy it, and a rigid shell is not hard to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Bubble: A pressurised lift that carries people between the surface and the sea floor.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bubble

Saturn's Race, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes) · 2000

A pressurised lift that carries people between the surface and the sea floor.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lift to the sea floor serves the few places where people work or holiday under the sea.

Who is paid. Undersea operators buy it, and the marine engineering firms that already build for them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Interway: A road network where computers steer and manage the traffic.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Interway

The Tels, Paul Black · 2003

A road network where computers steer and manage the traffic.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A road that does the driving would give every car on it the gains of driverless travel, but only where such roads are built.

Who is paid. Governments pay for roads, and the control gear is not hard to copy, so the road builders and signalling suppliers that already hold public works contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Traffic Lane Discharger: A road enforcement system that punishes drivers who dodge traffic controls, as imagined in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Traffic Lane Discharger

Sagramanda, Alan Dean Foster · 2006

A road enforcement system that punishes drivers who dodge traffic controls, as imagined in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Punishing drivers who dodge the rules keeps traffic in order, which is a tool for the police.

Who is paid. Governments pay for road enforcement, and the firms that already supply road and police equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Digital Ink License Plate: An electronic vehicle registration plate that can switch what it shows instantly.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Digital Ink License Plate

Daemon, Daniel Suarez · 2009

An electronic vehicle registration plate that can switch what it shows instantly.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A plate that can change what it shows is a small convenience for lawful owners and mostly a help to those dodging the law.

Who is paid. Car owners buy it, and I assume it is sold freely as in the story, where any maker of small screens could build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Energy and power · 6
Illustration of Portable Atomic Heater: A small, carryable nuclear source that provides heat and power wherever it is taken.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Portable Atomic Heater

Misfit, Robert Heinlein · 1939

A small, carryable nuclear source that provides heat and power wherever it is taken.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Heat and power that can be carried anywhere would change what it costs to work far from a grid.

Who is paid. Firms working far from a grid buy it, and because governments let only a few hands hold nuclear fuel, the few permitted makers keep what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ship Hull Thermobatteries: Energy storage built into a spacecraft's outer skin that recharges from sunlight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ship Hull Thermobatteries

The Ethical Equations, Murray Leinster · 1945

Energy storage built into a spacecraft's outer skin that recharges from sunlight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A spacecraft skin that stores sunlight serves only the few who build spacecraft.

Who is paid. Spacecraft operators pay for it, and the firms that already build the craft collect because the part is useless without them.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Culture Tank: Vats of microbes that digest rubbish and turn it into fuel oil.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Culture Tank

Needle, Hal Clement · 1950

Vats of microbes that digest rubbish and turn it into fuel oil.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Turning rubbish into fuel oil is worth an industry because it solves waste and fuel together.

Who is paid. Fuel sellers buy the oil, and since the vats are easy to copy those who already own the rubbish collection and the land collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Stillsuit Desert Boots: Boots that capture energy from walking to run other gear.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stillsuit Desert Boots

Dune Messiah, Frank Herbert · 1969

Boots that capture energy from walking to run other gear.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Boots that power small gear from walking save carrying batteries, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. People buy them to wear, and any boot maker can add the part so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Solar Electric Paint - Black Power: A coating sprayed on any surface that turns it into a generator of electricity from sunlight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solar Electric Paint - Black Power

The Woman in Del Rey Crater, Larry Niven · 1995

A coating sprayed on any surface that turns it into a generator of electricity from sunlight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A sprayed coating that turns any surface into a solar generator would change what power costs.

Who is paid. Builders and owners of roofs and walls buy it, and the inventor of a new material can keep the recipe protected for a time.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Photo-Voltaic Robes: Garments woven from material that turns sunlight into usable electrical power.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Photo-Voltaic Robes

Snow in the Desert, Neal Asher · 2002

Garments woven from material that turns sunlight into usable electrical power.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Clothes that make a little electricity can charge small things, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. People buy them to wear, and any cloth maker can learn to weave them so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Materials, manufacturing and construction · 23
Illustration of Paper Steel: Processed paper made into a building material rivalling metal for hardness.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Paper Steel

Robur-the-Conqueror, Jules Verne · 1866

Processed paper made into a building material rivalling metal for hardness.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A cheap building material as hard as metal would change construction costs.

Who is paid. Builders buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Inertron: A metal that behaves like dense heavy metals yet weighs far less.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Inertron

Armageddon: 2419 A.D., Philip Frances Nowlan · 1928

A metal that behaves like dense heavy metals yet weighs far less.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A metal with the strength of heavy metals at far less weight would cut the weight and running cost of aircraft, ships and structures.

Who is paid. Vehicle and building firms buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established metal makers with furnaces and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Boring Heat Machine: A tunnelling machine that uses heat to turn the excavated rock and soil into usable construction material.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Boring Heat Machine

The Onslaught From Venus, Frank Phillips · 1929

A tunnelling machine that uses heat to turn the excavated rock and soil into usable construction material.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A borer that also turns the spoil into building material would change the cost of tunnels and mines.

Who is paid. Mining and building firms buy it, and makers of heavy digging machines who already sell to them can copy and supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Plani-Glass: A clear, lightweight material as strong under tension as steel.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plani-Glass

Crystalized Thought, Nat Schachner · 1937

A clear, lightweight material as strong under tension as steel.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A clear, light material as strong as steel would change how windows, vehicles and buildings are made.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Durite: An extremely tough substance that shields against rocket exhaust.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Durite

Misfit, Robert Heinlein · 1939

An extremely tough substance that shields against rocket exhaust.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Unlike the general-purpose alloys, this is described only as a shield against rocket exhaust, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Rocket builders and launch sites buy it, and established materials firms that already supply them can copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Instant Customized Clothing: A machine that makes a chosen garment on demand, while the customer waits.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Instant Customized Clothing

Methuselah's Children, Robert Heinlein · 1941

A machine that makes a chosen garment on demand, while the customer waits.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A chosen garment made while the customer waits would change the clothing trade's costs and waste.

Who is paid. People buy the clothes, and the machines can be copied, so clothing brands and shops with customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Resilian: A plant or animal fibre with the toughness of metal.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Resilian

The Howling Bounders, Jack Vance · 1949

A plant or animal fibre with the toughness of metal.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A natural fibre as tough as metal would change ropes, cloth and light structures.

Who is paid. Manufacturers buy it, and a plant or animal can be bred by others, so the big fibre and textile firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mecho-Clothing: Garments manufactured start to finish by automated machinery, with no human sewing.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mecho-Clothing

Last of the Masters, Philip K. Dick · 1954

Garments manufactured start to finish by automated machinery, with no human sewing.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Clothes made with no hand sewing would cut the cost of the whole garment trade, but it is one industry and not all of making.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy the clothes, and the machinery can be copied, so clothing firms with brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Snake Boring Truck: A long, slender serpent-shaped vehicle that drills its way through the ground.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Snake Boring Truck

Breakfast at Twilight, Philip K. Dick · 1954

A long, slender serpent-shaped vehicle that drills its way through the ground.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A vehicle that drills its own way through the ground would change the cost of tunnels, pipes and mines.

Who is paid. Construction and mining firms buy it, and heavy-machine makers with plants and service crews can each build one, so they collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sealingsilk: A clear, bendable fabric that stays airtight even when exposed to the vacuum of space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sealingsilk

The Beat Cluster, Fritz Leiber · 1961

A clear, bendable fabric that stays airtight even when exposed to the vacuum of space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A clear airtight fabric for vacuum serves space suits and shelters, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it, and the cloth can be copied, so makers of protective gear with customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Krimskell Fiber: A rope fibre whose knots grip harder the more it is pulled.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Krimskell Fiber

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A rope fibre whose knots grip harder the more it is pulled.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Unlike the very strong threads, this is only a rope whose knots hold tighter, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. Sailors, climbers and haulers buy it, and many rope makers could copy such a fibre.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Memory Plastic: A plastic that reshapes itself into stored forms when told to.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Memory Plastic

Death by Ecstasy, Larry Niven · 1969

A plastic that reshapes itself into stored forms when told to.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A plastic that takes stored shapes on command lets one part or tool do the work of many across several industries.

Who is paid. Makers of tools, vehicles and goods buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Impact Suit: A flexible bodysuit that stiffens into armour when struck hard.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Impact Suit

The Flying Sorcerers, David Gerrold (w/L, Niven · 1971

A flexible bodysuit that stiffens into armour when struck hard.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A suit that hardens when struck protects those who face blows or falls, which is a niche.

Who is paid. I assumed armies, police and space crews are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold their equipment contracts would make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Nemourlon: A synthetic material used to make protective body armour.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nemourlon

West of Honor, Jerry Pournelle · 1976

A synthetic material used to make protective body armour.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A material for body armour serves soldiers and guards, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Armies and police pay, assuming they are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold armour contracts supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mimetic Polycarbon Suit: Fabric that shifts its colour and pattern to show stored pictures or what a camera sees.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mimetic Polycarbon Suit

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

Fabric that shifts its colour and pattern to show stored pictures or what a camera sees.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Cloth that shows pictures is a fashion and display novelty; it shows images, so I judged it as display clothing and not as hiding gear.

Who is paid. People buy it to wear, assuming it is sold openly, and the cloth can be copied, so clothing brands with shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Transdress: A see-through garment whose surface can display countless changing designs.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Transdress

The California Voodoo Game, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes · 1992

A see-through garment whose surface can display countless changing designs.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A garment that shows changing designs is a fashion novelty.

Who is paid. People buy it to wear, and the cloth can be copied, so clothing brands with shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Fabricules: Textile made of tiny particles that keep themselves spotless without washing.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fabricules

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

Textile made of tiny particles that keep themselves spotless without washing.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Cloth that never needs washing would save most homes a regular chore and its cost.

Who is paid. People buy it as clothing, and once the method spreads the clothing brands and shops they already buy from collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Floating Island: Huge man-made platforms that float on the ocean and host people and buildings.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Floating Island

Saturn's Race, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes) · 2000

Huge man-made platforms that float on the ocean and host people and buildings.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Floating land would suit a few while dry land stays cheaper, so I judged it a niche.

Who is paid. Residents pay for a place aboard, and large builders and shipyards who can raise such structures collect, since none can stop the others.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Durachrome: An extremely tough metal alloy for armoured vehicles.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Durachrome

Honor of the Regiment, Keith Laumer · 2002

An extremely tough metal alloy for armoured vehicles.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A far tougher alloy for armoured vehicles would change what an army's machines can survive.

Who is paid. Unlike the general-purpose alloys, this is armour, so armies pay and the firms that already hold vehicle contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Biolution: A sweeping shift toward making goods with engineered living organisms.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Biolution

The Tels, Paul Black · 2003

A sweeping shift toward making goods with engineered living organisms.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. This is a shift and not a product, so I judged the method behind it: making goods with engineered organisms would change costs across several industries.

Who is paid. Manufacturers pay for the organisms and vats, and living tools can be regrown by others, so firms with plants and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Goat/Spider Silk: Livestock engineered to make spider-silk protein that is spun into very strong thread.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Goat/Spider Silk

Oryx and Crake, Margaret Atwood · 2003

Livestock engineered to make spider-silk protein that is spun into very strong thread.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Very strong thread from farm animals would change the cost of ropes, cables, protective cloth and structures.

Who is paid. Makers of cloth and cable buy it, and the animals breed and spread, so established fibre firms with plants and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sprayrock: A sprayable mix that sets into a stone-hard layer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sprayrock

Pushing Ice, Alastair Reynolds · 2005

A sprayable mix that sets into a stone-hard layer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A spray that sets stone-hard is a useful building supply, as sprayed concrete already is.

Who is paid. Builders buy it, and many firms can mix such a spray, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of House-of-Cards Construction: Buildings whose computers actively rebalance the structure to stay up in quakes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

House-of-Cards Construction

Rainbows End, Vernor Vinge · 2006

Buildings whose computers actively rebalance the structure to stay up in quakes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Buildings that hold themselves up by active control could use far less material and survive quakes, changing building costs.

Who is paid. Developers buy it, and the method can be copied, so established builders and engineering firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Weapons and warfare · 35
Illustration of Vandelite Gun: An artillery piece that chills its explosive charge solid so it survives being fired.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vandelite Gun

The World Masters, George Griffith · 1903

An artillery piece that chills its explosive charge solid so it survives being fired.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cannon that freezes its charge so it survives firing is a modest improvement to artillery armies already have.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and such guns are easy to copy, so the arms makers that already hold supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ray gun: A weapon that fires a destructive energy beam.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ray gun

The Messiah of the Cylinder, Victor Rousseau · 1917

A weapon that fires a destructive energy beam.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Assuming a soldier carries it, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Blaster: A weapon firing an energy beam that wrecks anything it hits.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Blaster

When the Green Star Waned, Nictzin Dyalhis · 1925

A weapon firing an energy beam that wrecks anything it hits.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Assuming a soldier carries it, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Blue Beam: A directed energy weapon whose pale blue beam kills whoever it strikes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Blue Beam

The Reign of the Masters, Edmond Hamilton · 1931

A directed energy weapon whose pale blue beam kills whoever it strikes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Assuming a soldier carries it, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Needle-Ray: A fictional narrow beam weapon used in the story's space battles.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Needle-Ray

Skylark of Valeron, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1934

A fictional narrow beam weapon used in the story's space battles.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Heavy beam weapons for warships would be a major line of arms spending for any space fleet.

Who is paid. Navies pay, and the yards and arms firms that already build and equip warships would fit them and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Standish: A fictional heavy beam weapon mounted on warships in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Standish

Triplanetary, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1934

A fictional heavy beam weapon mounted on warships in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A heavy beam or a weapon fired from orbit lets a state strike or defend across great distances and would take a large share of what it spends on arms.

Who is paid. Only governments pay, and the few shipyards and space builders that already hold such contracts are the ones able to deliver it, so they collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Invisible Watchmen: A home guard system that automatically detects and kills anyone breaking in.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Invisible Watchmen

Murder in the Void, Edmond Hamilton · 1938

A home guard system that automatically detects and kills anyone breaking in.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A home system that kills intruders by itself is a deadly trap, which no householder may lawfully install.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, because automatic killing devices in homes are outlawed, though a version that only detects would find buyers.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Energy Weapon: A directed-beam weapon that damages targets with concentrated energy rather than projectiles.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Energy Weapon

Seesaw, A.E. van Vogt · 1941

A directed-beam weapon that damages targets with concentrated energy rather than projectiles.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Assuming a soldier carries it, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Pain Canopy: A hood that stimulates nerves directly to inflict pain during questioning.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pain Canopy

Gather, Darkness!, Fritz Leiber · 1943

A hood that stimulates nerves directly to inflict pain during questioning.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It exists only to inflict suffering, and no one may lawfully buy or use such a thing.

Who is paid. Torture devices are outlawed for everyone, governments included, so nothing is sold and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Plasticocoon: A fictional plastic casing in the story used to immobilise a captive.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plasticocoon

The Space Merchants, Frederik Pohl (w/CM Kornbluth · 1952

A fictional plastic casing in the story used to immobilise a captive.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A device that wraps up or holds a person without hurting them is handy for police but a niche.

Who is paid. Police forces buy it, and it is simple to copy, so the suppliers police already use collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Claws (Attack Robot): Fictional autonomous war machines in the story that hunt living targets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Claws (Attack Robot)

Second Variety, Philip K. Dick · 1953

Fictional autonomous war machines in the story that hunt living targets.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that find and attack targets without a soldier at risk would change how armies fight.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Lash-Tube: A fictional beam weapon carried by government agents hunting a mutant in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lash-Tube

The Golden Man, Philip K. Dick · 1954

A fictional beam weapon carried by government agents hunting a mutant in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Carried in the hand, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Manshonyagger: A fictional autonomous war machine left over from ancient conflicts in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Manshonyagger

Mark Elf, Cordwainer Smith · 1957

A fictional autonomous war machine left over from ancient conflicts in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that find and attack targets by themselves would change how armies and police forces are staffed and equipped.

Who is paid. Governments pay, and since the parts are widely made and the designs easy to copy, the arms firms with the standing contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Chameleon Battle-Dress: Military clothing that changes its look to merge with the surroundings.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chameleon Battle-Dress

Dorsai!, Gordon R. Dickson · 1960

Military clothing that changes its look to merge with the surroundings.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Clothing that blends into any background helps soldiers hide but is one item of kit.

Who is paid. Armies buy it, and a new cloth can be taken apart and copied by rival makers, so the firms that already hold army clothing contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Self-Guided Rocket Bullets: A fictional firearm designed for use in space, featured in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Self-Guided Rocket Bullets

The Planet Strappers, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1961

A fictional firearm designed for use in space, featured in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description calls it a firearm, so it is one more kind of gun, a modest step over those armies already carry.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gaussrifle: A fictional electromagnetic firearm used in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gaussrifle

The Stainless Steel Rat's Revenge, Harry Harrison · 1970

A fictional electromagnetic firearm used in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A gun driven by magnets throws its shot faster but does the job guns already do.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Light-Sword: A laser beam set up for slicing through materials.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Light-Sword

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

A laser beam set up for slicing through materials.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A hand beam for slicing materials is one cutting tool among many that workshops already have.

Who is paid. Assuming it is used as a tool, workshops and builders pay, and cutting beams rest on known science that many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Smother-Charge: A fictional specialised explosive used in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Smother-Charge

My Name is Legion, Roger Zelazny · 1976

A fictional specialised explosive used in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A special-purpose explosive fills one narrow job.

Who is paid. Assuming armies are the buyers, governments pay, and existing explosives makers collect because such charges are easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Armored Clothing: Everyday-looking garments concealing protective plating and powered strength assistance.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Armored Clothing

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

Everyday-looking garments concealing protective plating and powered strength assistance.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Hidden armour with added strength suits bodyguards and agents, a narrow group, where the open soldier suit serves whole armies.

Who is paid. Assuming guards and agents of the state are the buyers, makers of protective gear with state contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Agony Box: An interrogation device in the story that inflicts pain without lasting injury.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Agony Box

Heretics of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1984

An interrogation device in the story that inflicts pain without lasting injury.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a torture device, which no one may lawfully buy.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electromagnetic Shotgun: A weapon kept on hand to disable a runaway machine intelligence.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electromagnetic Shotgun

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

A weapon kept on hand to disable a runaway machine intelligence.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A weapon kept ready to shut down a runaway machine mind is a safety device few sites need.

Who is paid. Firms running such machines buy it as a precaution, and it is simple enough for many to make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Self-Propelled Road Mine: A fictional mobile explosive weapon used against vehicles in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Self-Propelled Road Mine

Runaway, Michael Crichton · 1985

A fictional mobile explosive weapon used against vehicles in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A mine that moves to find its target is a cleverer version of an old munition and stays a niche in an army's stores.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and such a device is simple to copy, so the munitions makers that already hold supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Slamhound: A fictional autonomous killing device used in the story's plot.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Slamhound

Count Zero, William Gibson · 1986

A fictional autonomous killing device used in the story's plot.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that hunts and kills without a person steering it would let armies fight with far fewer soldiers, which changes what war costs.

Who is paid. Assuming lawful sale only to armies and police, governments pay, and since the parts are widely made, the defence suppliers with existing contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Dentata: A fictional personal defence device meant to deter sexual assault in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dentata

Snow Crash, Neal Stephenson · 1992

A fictional personal defence device meant to deter sexual assault in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A worn device against assault would matter to its users but be bought by few.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and it is simple enough that many firms could make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Wandering Mine: A fictional mobile explosive weapon that roams on legs in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wandering Mine

Half the Day is Night, Maureen F. McHugh · 1994

A fictional mobile explosive weapon that roams on legs in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A mine that moves to find its target is a cleverer version of an old munition and stays a niche in an army's stores.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and such a device is simple to copy, so the munitions makers that already hold supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sights: A fictional eyewear aiming aid paired with a concealed firearm in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sights

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

A fictional eyewear aiming aid paired with a concealed firearm in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Eyewear that aims a gun for the wearer is a useful add-on and not much more.

Who is paid. Armies and police pay, assuming they are the main buyers, and the optics and arms firms that already supply them collect because the idea is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Combat Wasp: A fictional space combat drone used in fleet battles in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Combat Wasp

The Reality Dysfunction, Peter F. Hamilton · 1996

A fictional space combat drone used in fleet battles in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Assuming wars are fought in space, warships for it would be an industry of their own.

Who is paid. Only governments field war fleets, and the few yards already able to build large spacecraft would win the orders.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Chain Gun: A fictional improvised projectile weapon used in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chain Gun

All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999

A fictional improvised projectile weapon used in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is one more kind of firearm, a modest step over the guns armies already carry.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Halo: A fictional restraint device used by police to subdue suspects in the film.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Halo

Minority Report (Movie), Steven Spielberg · 2002

A fictional restraint device used by police to subdue suspects in the film.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A device that holds an arrested person helpless is a niche tool for police, a better handcuff.

Who is paid. Police forces pay, and the firms that already supply them would make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Philips Squeeze Gun: A fictional handheld electromagnetic firearm carried by characters in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Philips Squeeze Gun

Altered Carbon, Richard Morgan · 2003

A fictional handheld electromagnetic firearm carried by characters in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A gun driven by magnets throws its shot faster but does the job guns already do.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Microwave Pistol: A fictional handheld directed-energy weapon used in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Microwave Pistol

Blindsight, Peter Watts · 2006

A fictional handheld directed-energy weapon used in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Carried in the hand, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Persuader: A fictional coercive restraint attached to people to force obedience in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Persuader

Storm Thief, Chris Wooding · 2006

A fictional coercive restraint attached to people to force obedience in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A device fixed to people to force obedience through pain is a tool of torture, which no one may lawfully buy or use.

Who is paid. Assuming it counts as a torture device, it is outlawed for everyone, governments included, so nothing is sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Defuser: A fictional phone-based crowd control system used by authorities in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Defuser

Moxyland, Lauren Beukes · 2008

A fictional phone-based crowd control system used by authorities in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Stopping a crowd through the phones people carry is a narrow tool of control.

Who is paid. The authorities pay, and it only works through the phone networks, so the firms that own those networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Razorback: A fictional driverless armed motorcycle that serves as a weapon in a techno-thriller.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Razorback

Daemon, Daniel Suarez · 2009

A fictional driverless armed motorcycle that serves as a weapon in a techno-thriller.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that hunts and kills without a person steering it would let armies fight with far fewer soldiers, which changes what war costs.

Who is paid. Assuming lawful sale only to armies and police, governments pay, and since the parts are widely made, the defence suppliers with existing contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Disabler: A fictional tool that disables electric cars by emptying their batteries, used in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Disabler

The Human Blend, Alan Dean Foster · 2010

A fictional tool that disables electric cars by emptying their batteries, used in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tool that drains a car battery to stop it is a niche device.

Who is paid. Assuming police buy it to stop cars, it is simple to copy and the suppliers police already use collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Surveillance, identity and control · 36
Illustration of Ultra-Light Vision System: An imaging system that looks past surfaces to reveal what lies inside solid things.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ultra-Light Vision System

Spacehounds of IPC, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1931

An imaging system that looks past surfaces to reveal what lies inside solid things.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Seeing inside solid things would change inspection, mining, building and medicine.

Who is paid. Mines, builders, shippers and inspectors pay, and once built it can be copied, so the firms already making scanning and imaging gear collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spy Ray Goggles: Eyewear that sends out penetrating radiation so the wearer can watch activity hidden behind solid barriers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spy Ray Goggles

Triplanetary, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1934

Eyewear that sends out penetrating radiation so the wearer can watch activity hidden behind solid barriers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Watching activity behind solid barriers would change police raids, spying and war.

Who is paid. The description says it watches hidden activity, so spy and police services pay, and the firms already supplying them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Bloodhound Machine: A detector that identifies an individual reliably by analysing the chemical traces of their body odour.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bloodhound Machine

Crimes of the Year 2000, Ray Cummings · 1935

A detector that identifies an individual reliably by analysing the chemical traces of their body odour.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Reliable identity from the scent a person leaves behind would do for police and border checks what identity from a body sample does, enough for an industry.

Who is paid. Governments pay to run the checks, and the detector could be copied once made, so existing police and test suppliers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Subphoton Search Ray: A searching beam that sees inside buried shelters and records what it finds on film.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Subphoton Search Ray

The Shining One, Nat Schachner · 1937

A searching beam that sees inside buried shelters and records what it finds on film.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Seeing inside buried shelters and other closed places under the ground would change digging, rescue, inspection and scouting.

Who is paid. The description names a kind of place and not the watching of people, so like the other see-through beams firms that dig, build and inspect are assumed to pay, though armies would buy it too, and once built it can be copied, so the firms already making scanning and imaging gear collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ultra-Light: A lamp-like scanner that lets its user look inside solid stone.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ultra-Light

Rock Diver, Harry Harrison · 1951

A lamp-like scanner that lets its user look inside solid stone.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Looking inside solid stone would change mining, tunnelling and building.

Who is paid. Mines, builders, shippers and inspectors pay, and once built it can be copied, so the firms already making scanning and imaging gear collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Juvenile: A small machine built to creep around unseen and snoop on citizens.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Juvenile

The Man Who Japed, Philip K. Dick · 1956

A small machine built to creep around unseen and snoop on citizens.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Spying machines too small to notice would change what police and spy services can learn, enough for an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Spy and police services pay, and once made they can be copied, so the firms already supplying such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Undercover Detective Robot: A police machine that disguises itself as other kinds of robot to watch criminals.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Undercover Detective Robot

The Velvet Glove, Harry Harrison · 1956

A police machine that disguises itself as other kinds of robot to watch criminals.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A police robot that passes for another kind of robot serves undercover work, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Police forces pay, and gear sold to them goes through the firms that already hold their supply contracts.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Neural Door Lock: A lock that opens only for people whose nervous system signals match its records.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Neural Door Lock

The Unreconstructed M, Philip K. Dick · 1957

A lock that opens only for people whose nervous system signals match its records.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lock that knows its owner by nerve signals is one more kind of lock, a convenience.

Who is paid. Firms and building owners buy it, and a lock that reads the body is easy for any maker to copy so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Life Detector Shield: A field meant to hide living bodies from sensors that search for them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Life Detector Shield

Cease Fire, Frank Herbert · 1958

A field meant to hide living bodies from sensors that search for them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Hiding a body from life-sign sensors matters only to soldiers and agents, a niche.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and it could be copied once made, so the firms already holding army supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Magnetic Pinions: Wrist restraints that can be locked or released from a distance using magnetism.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magnetic Pinions

Worlds of Origin, Jack Vance · 1958

Wrist restraints that can be locked or released from a distance using magnetism.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Restraints that lock and open from a distance are a small improvement on handcuffs.

Who is paid. Police forces pay, and the device is simple to copy, so the firms already supplying police equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Infiltrators: Tiny insect-like spying machines.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Infiltrators

Vulcan's Hammer, Philip K. Dick · 1960

Tiny insect-like spying machines.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Spying machines too small to notice would change what police and spy services can learn, enough for an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Spy and police services pay, and once made they can be copied, so the firms already supplying such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ident-Key: A record of everything a person has read, used to forecast their thinking.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ident-Key

The Penultimate Truth, Philip K. Dick · 1964

A record of everything a person has read, used to forecast their thinking.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Forecasting what people think from all they have read would be prized by sellers and campaigners, enough for an industry.

Who is paid. Firms wanting to sway people pay, and the firms that already see what people read hold the records and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Remote-Cast Snooper: A compact, concealable toxin scanner.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Remote-Cast Snooper

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A compact, concealable toxin scanner.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A toxin scanner small enough to hide does the same work as the larger poison checker, worth an industry to those who make and serve food.

Who is paid. Assumes food makers, kitchens and inspectors are the main buyers; it can be copied, so the firms already making test instruments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Radar Mesentery: A thick membrane carrying a web of sensors.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Radar Mesentery

This Immortal, Roger Zelazny · 1966

A thick membrane carrying a web of sensors.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description promises only a sheet carrying sensors, a part for an instrument, and not sensing that spreads everywhere like the sensor dust or sees through rock like the ranging entries, so it is judged as a niche part.

Who is paid. Nothing says it watches people, so makers of instruments and vehicles are assumed to buy it, and since it could be copied the firms that already make sensors and electronics collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Voight-Kampff Empathy Test: A questioning procedure that reads bodily reactions to tell people apart from artificial imitations.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Voight-Kampff Empathy Test

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, Philip K. Dick · 1968

A questioning procedure that reads bodily reactions to tell people apart from artificial imitations.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Telling people from artificial copies matters only to the few who hunt such copies.

Who is paid. Police forces pay, and gear sold to them goes through the firms that already hold their supply contracts.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Holo-Scanner: A compact handheld scanner that records three-dimensional surveillance footage.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Holo-Scanner

A Scanner Darkly, Philip K. Dick · 1977

A compact handheld scanner that records three-dimensional surveillance footage.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A handheld recorder of depth footage is a specialist tool for police watching suspects.

Who is paid. Police forces pay, and it could be copied, so existing suppliers of police equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of People-Sorter: A machine that rapidly processes and classifies large crowds of people.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

People-Sorter

Millenium, John Varley · 1983

A machine that rapidly processes and classifies large crowds of people.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Sorting large crowds quickly helps at borders, camps and checkpoints, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Assumes a state runs it at borders and checkpoints; the firms already supplying such posts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Life-shield Blanket: A cover that hides a living person from standard life-sign sensors.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Life-shield Blanket

Heretics of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1984

A cover that hides a living person from standard life-sign sensors.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Hiding a body from life-sign sensors matters only to soldiers and agents, a niche.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and it could be copied once made, so the firms already holding army supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Privacy Screen: A device that blocks every kind of electronic eavesdropping around the people inside.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Privacy Screen

Neuromancer, William Gibson · 1984

A device that blocks every kind of electronic eavesdropping around the people inside.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Blocking every kind of electronic listening protects a private talk, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Firms with secrets to keep buy it, and many makers could build such a blocker so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Deadman's Device: An under-skin implant carried by an agent on a dangerous assignment that reacts if they die.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Deadman's Device

Shadowspeer, Patricia Jo Clayton · 1990

An under-skin implant carried by an agent on a dangerous assignment that reacts if they die.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An implant that reacts when an agent dies serves a small number of people on dangerous work.

Who is paid. Spy and military services pay, and it could be copied, so their existing suppliers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Dustmice: Minute robot sensors released at crime scenes to gather trace evidence for investigators.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dustmice

Queen of Angels, Greg Bear · 1990

Minute robot sensors released at crime scenes to gather trace evidence for investigators.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Tiny machines that gather traces at crime scenes speed up one part of police work, a niche.

Who is paid. Police laboratories pay, and the machines could be copied, so existing suppliers of police equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Holo (License): A holographic identity and driving permit card.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Holo (License)

Rim, Alexander Besher · 1994

A holographic identity and driving permit card.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A holographic licence card is a harder-to-forge version of a card people already carry.

Who is paid. Licensing offices pay, and the card is easy to copy, so the printers that already make identity documents collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Dog Pod Grid: A floating swarm of semi-autonomous airborne units forming a security barrier.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dog Pod Grid

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

A floating swarm of semi-autonomous airborne units forming a security barrier.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A floating wall of guard machines would change the cost of protecting borders and whole districts, enough for an industry.

Who is paid. Governments pay for such barriers, and many firms could build the units, so those already holding security and defence contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Retinal Implant: An eye implant that records and broadcasts everything the wearer looks at.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Retinal Implant

The Neutronium Alchemist, Peter F. Hamilton · 1997

An eye implant that records and broadcasts everything the wearer looks at.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Recording and sending out all a person sees is a life record, which many people would want if it worked.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it for themselves, and the firms that already make implants and carry the pictures collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Spider Robot: Small crawling robots that sweep a building and check who is inside.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spider Robot

Minority Report (Movie), Steven Spielberg · 2002

Small crawling robots that sweep a building and check who is inside.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Crawling robots that sweep a building and check who is inside change what police can do in a search.

Who is paid. Spy and police services pay, and once made it can be copied, so the firms already supplying such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Alibi Archive: A stored record of everything a person experiences, captured by a device inside their body.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Alibi Archive

Hominids (Neanderthal Parallax), Robert J. Sawyer · 2003

A stored record of everything a person experiences, captured by a device inside their body.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A full record of a person's life would be wanted by a great many people as memory, proof and protection, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay for it, and since recording is easy to copy the firms that already own the storage networks and devices collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Bubble-Gum Pylon: A police road device that traps a fleeing car in sticky material.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bubble-Gum Pylon

Quantico, Greg Bear · 2007

A police road device that traps a fleeing car in sticky material.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Stopping a fleeing car with sticky material is a narrow police tool.

Who is paid. Police forces pay, and it could be copied, so the firms already supplying police equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Midge: A tiny insect-like flying drone launched from a larger aircraft.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Midge

Quantico, Greg Bear · 2007

A tiny insect-like flying drone launched from a larger aircraft.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Assuming it is used for spying, a flying machine too small to notice would change what police and spy services can learn, enough for an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Spy and police services pay, and once made they can be copied, so the firms already supplying such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of OSMO (Osmic Mobile Observers): Drones that track people by sniffing their scent.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

OSMO (Osmic Mobile Observers)

Quantico, Greg Bear · 2007

Drones that track people by sniffing their scent.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Drones that follow a person by scent would change what police can do in a search, like the other flying watchers.

Who is paid. Spy and police services pay, and once made it can be copied, so the firms already supplying such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tongueprint Verification: An identity check that reads the surface pattern of a person's tongue.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tongueprint Verification

Fleet of Worlds, Larry Niven (w/E.M. Lerner · 2007

An identity check that reads the surface pattern of a person's tongue.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An identity check from the pattern of the tongue promises reliable identity from the body, the same gain as the fingerprint, eye and face readers, and each such reader is judged as if it were the reader that was built.

Who is paid. Assumes a state runs the checks; such readers are easy to copy, so the firms already supplying identity systems collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Snake Spy: A small serpent-shaped robot that intelligence agents use to gather information in the field.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Snake Spy

Mariposa, Greg Bear · 2009

A small serpent-shaped robot that intelligence agents use to gather information in the field.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A snake-shaped robot that gathers information unseen changes what spy services can learn, like the other small spy machines.

Who is paid. Spy and police services pay, and once made it can be copied, so the firms already supplying such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Barker: A fictional handheld tool that locates and hijacks people's medical implants, a threat in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Barker

The Human Blend, Alan Dean Foster · 2010

A fictional handheld tool that locates and hijacks people's medical implants, a threat in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tool that finds and seizes other people's implants is a covert weapon wanted by a few services, and a crime in anyone else's hands.

Who is paid. Assuming a spy or police service may buy what the public may not, it pays, and since others could build the tool the firms already trusted with secret supply work collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Norm-All Program: Government software that decides where each resident ought to be at any given time.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Norm-All Program

Spark, John Twelve Hawks · 2014

Government software that decides where each resident ought to be at any given time.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Software that tracks where every resident should be gives a state a new kind of control over a whole population.

Who is paid. The state pays, and the firms that already build and run its computer and records systems collect, since others could build the same.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of DNA Swab Palate: A fictional mouth insert used by characters to defeat genetic identity tests.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

DNA Swab Palate

The Breach, M.T. Hill · 2020

A fictional mouth insert used by characters to defeat genetic identity tests.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An insert that defeats identity tests serves only the few agents who must pass as someone else, and is forbidden to everyone else.

Who is paid. Assuming a spy service is the lawful buyer, it pays, and since others could copy the insert the firms already trusted with secret supply work collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Pacification Drones: Flying monitoring robots that play soothing sounds to settle people below.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pacification Drones

The Breach, M.T. Hill · 2020

Flying monitoring robots that play soothing sounds to settle people below.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Flying robots that watch crowds and calm them would change how a state keeps order in public places.

Who is paid. Police forces pay, and gear sold to them goes through the firms that already hold their supply contracts.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Scuttle-bot: A general-purpose watching robot that moves by clambering over surfaces instead of flying.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Scuttle-bot

Hella, David Gerrold · 2020

A general-purpose watching robot that moves by clambering over surfaces instead of flying.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A crawling robot that watches where flying ones cannot changes what police and spy services can learn.

Who is paid. Assumes it watches people for a state; once made it can be copied, so the firms already supplying such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Food, agriculture and environment · 14
Illustration of Food Factory: An automated plant that makes food synthetically instead of farming it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Food Factory

Exiles of the Moon, Nat Schachner (w. AL Zagat · 1931

An automated plant that makes food synthetically instead of farming it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Food made without fields would free the feeding of people from land and weather, which touches nearly everyone.

Who is paid. Households buy it as ordinary groceries, and since the method can be copied, the food makers who already own plants, brands and shop space collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Protine: Engineered algae processed so that it passes for ordinary food in look and flavour.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Protine

Solar Lottery, Philip K. Dick · 1955

Engineered algae processed so that it passes for ordinary food in look and flavour.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. The story has it stand in for ordinary food of every kind, so like any food made without fields it would free the feeding of people from land and weather; the real thing stayed a niche and I judged the promise.

Who is paid. Households buy it inside ordinary food, and tanks of microbes are easy to copy, so the food makers with plants and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Carniculture Plants: Factories that culture animal protein as meat without raising livestock.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Carniculture Plants

Four-Day Planet, H. Beam Piper · 1961

Factories that culture animal protein as meat without raising livestock.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Meat without animals at a low price would reshape the whole meat trade, though it replaces one food and not the whole diet.

Who is paid. Shoppers pay, and once the method is known many firms can run tanks, so the meat packers and food brands that already reach the shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Green Guk: Algae cultures kept to supply breathable air in a closed habitat.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Green Guk

The Beat Cluster, Fritz Leiber · 1961

Algae cultures kept to supply breathable air in a closed habitat.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Plants that keep the air fresh serve only the few people living in sealed habitats.

Who is paid. I assumed state space programmes pay, and plants and algae can be regrown by anyone who has a sample, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Food Brick: Manufactured ration blocks tailored to feed any kind of creature.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Food Brick

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

Manufactured ration blocks tailored to feed any kind of creature.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Compact rations are a convenience for people who cannot carry or cook ordinary food.

Who is paid. I assumed armies and state expeditions are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold their supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tickler: A machine that removes smog from the air and keeps the collected residue.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tickler

Eurema's Dam, R.A. Lafferty · 1972

A machine that removes smog from the air and keeps the collected residue.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that clears smog from city air would be a real gain for everyone who breathes it.

Who is paid. Nobody can be charged for clean air one by one, so cities pay, and I assumed the makers of heavy air-handling gear who already sell to cities collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Iceberg Water Tub: A giant container wrapped around a towed iceberg to deliver fresh water.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Iceberg Water Tub

Oath of Fealty, Jerry Pournelle (w/L. Niven · 1981

A giant container wrapped around a towed iceberg to deliver fresh water.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Fresh water delivered by iceberg could supply dry coastal cities, which is a whole water business.

Who is paid. City water authorities pay, and I assumed the towing can be copied, so the firms that already own big tugs and ports collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Dainties: Bite-sized flavour morsels cultivated artificially as treats.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dainties

Prelude to Foundation, Isaac Asimov · 1988

Bite-sized flavour morsels cultivated artificially as treats.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Cultivated flavour morsels are a treat, a pleasant extra and not a staple.

Who is paid. Households buy them, and I assumed the growing method is easy to copy, so the confectionery brands with shop space collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Genetic Ark: Huge sealed habitats that keep many species alive to preserve animal genetic diversity.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Genetic Ark

Earth, David Brin · 1990

Huge sealed habitats that keep many species alive to preserve animal genetic diversity.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A store of living things is insurance against loss, valued by the public but not something that changes daily life.

Who is paid. No visitor or user can be charged, so governments pay, and I assumed any capable builder can put one up, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Yeast-Beast Machine: A machine that cultivates meat from cells inside a tank.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Yeast-Beast Machine

Natulife, David Brin · 1994

A machine that cultivates meat from cells inside a tank.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Meat without animals at a low price would reshape the whole meat trade, though it replaces one food and not the whole diet.

Who is paid. Shoppers pay whether this is a home machine or a factory one, which the description does not say, and once the method is known many firms can copy it, so the meat packers and food brands that already reach the shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Happicuppa Coffee Bush: A genetically modified coffee plant designed so its beans ripen together for machine picking.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Happicuppa Coffee Bush

Oryx and Crake, Margaret Atwood · 2003

A genetically modified coffee plant designed so its beans ripen together for machine picking.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Coffee that ripens all at once for machine picking would change the costs of the coffee trade.

Who is paid. Growers buy the plants, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the seed houses and nurseries that already hold stock, land and sales channels collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Power Stilts: Lifting platforms that raise flooded urban districts progressively higher above rising water.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Power Stilts

The Human Blend, Alan Dean Foster · 2010

Lifting platforms that raise flooded urban districts progressively higher above rising water.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Lifting whole flooded districts above the water would save cities and be a building trade of its own.

Who is paid. City authorities pay, and the lifting can be copied, so the big construction firms that already win public works collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Rocket Pine: Trees genetically modified to grow fast for paper and wood fibre production.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rocket Pine

The Human Blend, Alan Dean Foster · 2010

Trees genetically modified to grow fast for paper and wood fibre production.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Fast-growing trees for paper and wood fibre would change the costs of the paper and timber trade.

Who is paid. Planters and mills buy the trees, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the nurseries and forestry firms that already hold stock, land and sales channels collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Pina2bo: A giant gun firing reflective particles into the upper sky to cool the planet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pina2bo

Termination Shock, Neal Stephenson · 2021

A giant gun firing reflective particles into the upper sky to cool the planet.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Cooling the whole planet would touch the weather and harvests of nearly everyone, for good or ill.

Who is paid. Nobody can be charged one by one, so a government pays, and the gun and the particles are plain engineering that many builders could supply.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Home and everyday life · 21
Illustration of Barber Helmet: A helmet worn on the head that trims hair automatically.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Barber Helmet

Ben Gleed, King of Speed, Don Wilcox · 1939

A helmet worn on the head that trims hair automatically.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A haircut at home without a barber saves a small regular errand.

Who is paid. I assumed a home device, so people buy it for themselves, and other appliance makers could copy the cutting helmet.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Floating Villa: A man-made floating island big enough to hold a private residence and grounds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Floating Villa

Doom Over Venus, Edmond Hamilton · 1940

A man-made floating island big enough to hold a private residence and grounds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A private island that floats is a luxury for the very rich.

Who is paid. Rich families buy it, and the shipyards and marine builders who already make large floating structures collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sideglance Robe: A garment that looks see-through or solid depending on the viewing angle.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sideglance Robe

The Trouble With Bubbles, Philip K. Dick · 1953

A garment that looks see-through or solid depending on the viewing angle.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A garment that looks see-through or solid by viewing angle is a fashion novelty.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and once the cloth exists any clothing maker could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Travel-Rug: A powered floor mat that carries its rider from room to room.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Travel-Rug

Roll Out The Rolov!, Christopher Anvil · 1953

A powered floor mat that carries its rider from room to room.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A mat that carries its rider from room to room is a convenience, and a real help to the few who cannot walk easily.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and I assumed it could be copied by many makers of small machines, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hush Corner: A spot made private by electronically cancelling the sound around it so nobody can overhear.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hush Corner

Double Star, Robert Heinlein · 1956

A spot made private by electronically cancelling the sound around it so nobody can overhear.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A spot where nobody can overhear is handy in offices and public rooms, but it is a convenience.

Who is paid. Offices and meeting places buy it, and cancelling sound with opposing sound is a known method many electronics makers could copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Cone of Silence: A zone that stops voices carrying beyond it by generating opposing vibrations.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cone of Silence

Cease Fire, Frank Herbert · 1958

A zone that stops voices carrying beyond it by generating opposing vibrations.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A patch of privacy for talk is handy in offices and public rooms, but it is a convenience.

Who is paid. Offices and meeting places buy it, and cancelling sound with opposing sound is a known method many electronics makers could copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Handicloset: A wardrobe that sorts and arranges its own contents.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Handicloset

The Zap Gun, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A wardrobe that sorts and arranges its own contents.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A wardrobe that tidies itself saves a little effort.

Who is paid. People buy it for the home, and other furniture and appliance makers could copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Stillsuit: A full-body suit that cools the wearer and recycles nearly all body water.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stillsuit

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A full-body suit that cools the wearer and recycles nearly all body water.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A suit that cools and saves body water matters to the few who live or work in deep desert.

Who is paid. Desert dwellers and travellers buy it, and I assumed skilled makers could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Stilltent: A sealed shelter that recovers water from its occupants' breath.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stilltent

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A sealed shelter that recovers water from its occupants' breath.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A shelter that recovers water from breath matters to the few who live or travel in deep desert.

Who is paid. Desert dwellers and travellers buy it, and I assumed skilled makers could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Diptray: A floating tray that carries drinks at parties.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Diptray

This Immortal, Roger Zelazny · 1966

A floating tray that carries drinks at parties.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tray that floats round a party is a novelty for hosts.

Who is paid. Hosts buy it, and once floating gadgets can be made at all, many makers could build a tray.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spray-Foam Blouse: A garment formed by spraying fabric foam directly onto the body.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spray-Foam Blouse

Galactic Pot-Healer, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A garment formed by spraying fabric foam directly onto the body.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Clothing sprayed straight onto the body is a novelty way to dress.

Who is paid. I assumed it is sold as a can that is used up with each wearing and bought again, so although the spray is easy to copy, the brands that already hold the shop shelves collect, as with the skin sprays.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Implant-Watch: A timepiece under the skin that shows the hour with coloured lights.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Implant-Watch

Cloak of Anarchy, Larry Niven · 1972

A timepiece under the skin that shows the hour with coloured lights.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Reading the hour from lights under your skin is a novelty way to wear a watch.

Who is paid. Wearers pay for it, and the device is simple enough that many makers and clinics could offer it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Darkdawn City: An urban settlement whose towers are shaped so passing wind sounds music through them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Darkdawn City

Dying of the Light, George RR Martin · 1977

An urban settlement whose towers are shaped so passing wind sounds music through them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Towers that sing in the wind are civic art, pleasant but not needed.

Who is paid. A city government pays for it as public art, and the ordinary architects and builders who put up towers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Joo Janta 200 Super-Chromatic Peril Sensitive Sunglasses: Eyewear that turns opaque whenever the wearer is about to see something alarming.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Joo Janta 200 Super-Chromatic Peril Sensitive Sunglasses

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams · 1979

Eyewear that turns opaque whenever the wearer is about to see something alarming.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Glasses that go dark at the sight of danger are a joke comfort, since they hide the danger and do nothing about it.

Who is paid. Wearers buy them, and other makers of eyewear could copy them once they were on sale.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Nutri-Matic: A beverage machine that reads the drinker to guess what they would enjoy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nutri-Matic

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams · 1979

A beverage machine that reads the drinker to guess what they would enjoy.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Guessing which drink someone would enjoy is a pleasant extra on a drinks machine.

Who is paid. I assumed a vending machine, so firms buy it for their premises, and the vending operators that already place machines collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Dream Park: A holiday resort where guests act as characters inside elaborate staged adventures.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dream Park

Dream Park, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes · 1981

A holiday resort where guests act as characters inside elaborate staged adventures.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A resort where guests live inside a staged adventure would be a holiday industry of its own.

Who is paid. Holidaymakers pay, and the staging can be copied, so the firms that already own resort land, well-loved stories and trusted names collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sleeve Watch: A timepiece display printed temporarily onto a chosen piece of clothing.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sleeve Watch

Dream Park, Larry Niven (w/S. Barnes · 1981

A timepiece display printed temporarily onto a chosen piece of clothing.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A watch face printed for a while on a sleeve is a novelty way to tell the time.

Who is paid. Households buy it and many firms could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Subdermal Microchannels: Tiny channels under the skin that create glowing decorative patterns.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Subdermal Microchannels

Stone Lives, Paul Di Filippo · 1985

Tiny channels under the skin that create glowing decorative patterns.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Glowing patterns under the skin are body decoration for those who want it.

Who is paid. Households pay for it, and I assumed many studios or clinics could offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Smart Tag: A durable street-art sticker that resists walls built to clean themselves.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Smart Tag

All Tomorrow's Parties, William Gibson · 1999

A durable street-art sticker that resists walls built to clean themselves.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sticker that survives walls built to clean themselves serves a few street artists.

Who is paid. Street artists buy it, and I assumed the glue can be copied, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Terrafoam Dorm Building: A cheap foam-built housing block that packs residents into tiny living cells.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Terrafoam Dorm Building

Manna, Marshall Brain · 2002

A cheap foam-built housing block that packs residents into tiny living cells.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Very cheap mass housing would change what it costs to shelter people, though the cells here are grim.

Who is paid. I assumed a government pays to house people who cannot pay, so the building firms that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Smart Wallpaper: Wall covering that reads how occupants feel and changes its colours to suit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Smart Wallpaper

Oryx and Crake, Margaret Atwood · 2003

Wall covering that reads how occupants feel and changes its colours to suit.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Wall covering that changes colour with mood is decoration; unlike the reshaping house it alters only colour.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and I assumed the covering can be copied by many makers, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Exotic physics · 1
Illustration of Floater: Lets a person hover in mid-air with no visible support.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Floater

Armageddon: 2419 A.D., Philip Frances Nowlan · 1928

Lets a person hover in mid-air with no visible support.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Personal flight without wings or fuel would be a new kind of everyday travel, though a narrower use than lifting freight and vehicles.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would buy it as they buy bicycles, and once one firm made it many could, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Society and economy · 9
Illustration of Royalties For Machine Learning Subjects: A scheme paying people ongoing fees when robots learn skills by copying their recorded behaviour.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Royalties For Machine Learning Subjects

Q.U.R., Anthony Boucher · 1943

A scheme paying people ongoing fees when robots learn skills by copying their recorded behaviour.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A scheme of fees for people whose skills are copied is a rule about pay, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Purple Wage: A universal basic income that the state pays to everyone.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Purple Wage

Riders of the Purple Wage, Philip Jose Farmer · 1967

A universal basic income that the state pays to everyone.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A payment from the state to its people is a policy that moves money around, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Virtual Childrearing: Simulation-based training in caring for children, possibly done remotely.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Virtual Childrearing

Natulife, David Brin · 1994

Simulation-based training in caring for children, possibly done remotely.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Practising child care in a simulation is a niche kind of training.

Who is paid. Parents-to-be pay, and many firms could write such a simulation.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Implanted Credit Card: A payment chip placed under the skin that pays at checkout wirelessly.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Implanted Credit Card

The Diamond Age, Neal Stephenson · 1995

A payment chip placed under the skin that pays at checkout wirelessly.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Paying without cash is worth an industry of its own, and a chip under the skin is the same service with a little added convenience.

Who is paid. Shops and banks pay fees on each sale, and since the card or chip itself is easy to copy, the banks and payment networks that already hold people's accounts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pokkecon: A pocket computer linked to a hidden network that trades favours between strangers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pokkecon

Maneki Neko, Bruce Sterling · 1998

A pocket computer linked to a hidden network that trades favours between strangers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A pocket helper that matches favours between strangers would be a new kind of market for many people.

Who is paid. People buy the device, and the hidden network grows more useful with every member, so whoever runs it is hard to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Punishment Sphere: A fictional coercive facility used to suppress dissent in the game.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Punishment Sphere

Alpha Centauri, Sid Meier · 1999

A fictional coercive facility used to suppress dissent in the game.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.

Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Randominoes: Game tiles whose dotted faces change unpredictably.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Randominoes

Nymphomation, Jeff Noon · 2000

Game tiles whose dotted faces change unpredictably.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Game tiles with changing faces are a toy.

Who is paid. Players buy them, and any toy maker could produce them.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Whuffie: An economy where standing in others' eyes works as money for buying life's essentials.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Whuffie

Down and Out in the Magic Kingdom, Cory Doctorow · 2003

An economy where standing in others' eyes works as money for buying life's essentials.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Standing in others' eyes used as money is a custom of a society, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Replaced Worker Benefits: Payments to people whose jobs have been taken over by machines.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Replaced Worker Benefits

Spark, John Twelve Hawks · 2014

Payments to people whose jobs have been taken over by machines.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A payment from the state to its people is a policy that moves money around, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Ideas from Technovelgy: Science Fiction Timeline of Inventions (Bill Christensen) (archived copy), as compiled in Not Boring: Sci-Fi Idea Bank (Packy McCormick); names, works, authors and years are theirs and every description is this site's rewording. Categories, arrival decades and profit are judged by AI models, not people. Method