Skip to content
Slow Variables
Ask
Futures · imagined

Imagined in the 1960s

The technologies stories first imagined in this decade, by kind, with whether each has been built since and who would keep the profit.

By kind of technology

Space travel and habitats · 49
Illustration of Adiabatic Pods: Cramped capsules just big enough to carry a lone traveller through space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Adiabatic Pods

The Lady Who Sailed The Soul, Cordwainer Smith · 1960

Cramped capsules just big enough to carry a lone traveller through space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A bare capsule for a lone traveller is a cheap niche form of space transport.

Who is paid. Carriers or expedition firms would buy it, assumed here, and existing spacecraft builders could all make something so simple.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ball and Hammer Ship: A spacecraft built as two separate bodies joined by a long connecting spine.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ball and Hammer Ship

Dorsai!, Gordon R. Dickson · 1960

A spacecraft built as two separate bodies joined by a long connecting spine.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A working vessel for travel between worlds would found a transport industry of its own.

Who is paid. Carriers and expedition firms buy ships, and many yards could build them once shown how, so established vehicle builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Starlight Sail (Light Sail): A huge reflective sheet pushed by light that carries a ship from one star system to another.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Starlight Sail (Light Sail)

The Lady Who Sailed The Soul, Cordwainer Smith · 1960

A huge reflective sheet pushed by light that carries a ship from one star system to another.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A sail pushed by light that carries a ship to another star would open other stars to those who go, a transport industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy the sail as their engine, and a thin reflecting sheet is something other makers could copy, so established ship builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Air-Restorer Capsule: A small cartridge that refreshes the breathing air inside a spacesuit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Air-Restorer Capsule

The Planet Strappers, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1961

A small cartridge that refreshes the breathing air inside a spacesuit.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Breathable air is essential aboard, but this is a fitting inside a craft or suit, not an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and the established builders of ships and suits supply it because the method is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Astroposit: An old-fashioned instrument panel that reports your location wherever you are among the stars.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Astroposit

The Hunch, Christopher Anvil · 1961

An old-fashioned instrument panel that reports your location wherever you are among the stars.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Knowing where a ship is and keeping it on course is essential but is an instrument within the ship.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy it as part of the craft, and the established makers of flight instruments supply it since it can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Flitterboat: A small single-pilot craft for hauling freight through space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flitterboat

A Spaceship Named McGuire, Gordon Randall Garrett · 1961

A small single-pilot craft for hauling freight through space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A small craft for a lone pilot or a short job is a niche form of space transport.

Who is paid. Firms working in space buy it as working gear, and existing spacecraft builders could all make something so simple.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Igloo Inflatable Moon Habitat: A blow-up shelter for the Moon that can be carried about and pitched quickly.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Igloo Inflatable Moon Habitat

A Fall of Moondust, Arthur C. Clarke · 1961

A blow-up shelter for the Moon that can be carried about and pitched quickly.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A shelter that goes up quickly serves small parties working on airless ground, a niche.

Who is paid. No user is named, so it is assumed that firms working on other worlds buy it as working gear, and a shelter that must hold air against vacuum is made by the established makers of suits and habitats, any of whom could copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Inflatable Living-Globe: A blow-up sphere in orbit that people can live inside.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Inflatable Living-Globe

The Beat Cluster, Fritz Leiber · 1961

A blow-up sphere in orbit that people can live inside.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A cheap blown-up home in orbit is assumed to be a place for many to live, a building industry of its own.

Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Lyle Drive: A powerful engine that moves ships quickly between the planets of our solar system.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lyle Drive

Stranger in a Strange Land, Robert Heinlein · 1961

A powerful engine that moves ships quickly between the planets of our solar system.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2080s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An engine that moves ships faster or more cheaply would change the cost of all space transport.

Who is paid. An engine is bought by whoever runs the ship, assumed here to be carriers, and established engine builders could copy it once it worked.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Magnetic Soles: Magnetised boots that keep the wearer planted on metal floors where gravity is weak.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magnetic Soles

A Spaceship Named McGuire, Gordon Randall Garrett · 1961

Magnetised boots that keep the wearer planted on metal floors where gravity is weak.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping your footing where there is little or no weight is a small convenience for those who work there.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and it is a simple loose item that any workshop could make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Moondozer: Earthmoving equipment built for work on the Moon.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Moondozer

A Fall of Moondust, Arthur C. Clarke · 1961

Earthmoving equipment built for work on the Moon.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Earthmoving gear for the Moon serves the few who build there, a niche.

Who is paid. No user is named, so it is assumed that firms working on other worlds buy it like other working gear, and established vehicle builders could all make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Precipitrons: Air cleaners that strip dust and particles from the atmosphere of an orbiting habitat.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Precipitrons

The Beat Cluster, Fritz Leiber · 1961

Air cleaners that strip dust and particles from the atmosphere of an orbiting habitat.

already existed before the story (the 1920s)

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Cleaning dust from the air is a fitting of the habitat, needed by those who live there but not a product of its own.

Who is paid. Whoever pays for the habitat pays for this, assumed here to be a government, and any habitat builder can use the idea so the established builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Skip-Glide: A reentry technique that bounces a craft off the upper air to shed speed gently.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Skip-Glide

The Planet Strappers, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1961

A reentry technique that bounces a craft off the upper air to shed speed gently.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a way of flying or moving, not a product; the craft and gear that do it are judged under their own entries.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Bubble (Bubb): A spacecraft whose hull is inflated rather than built rigid.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Bubble (Bubb)

The Planet Strappers, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1961

A spacecraft whose hull is inflated rather than built rigid.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A hull that is inflated and not built rigid would make working vessels cheaper to build and launch, part of a transport industry of its own.

Who is paid. Carriers and expedition firms buy ships, and many yards could build them once shown how, so established vehicle builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sun-Powered Ionic Drive Motor: A spacecraft engine that runs on sunlight-generated electricity to accelerate ions.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sun-Powered Ionic Drive Motor

The Planet Strappers, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1961

A spacecraft engine that runs on sunlight-generated electricity to accelerate ions.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A better engine sets how far, how fast and how cheaply every ship can go.

Who is paid. Whoever runs the ship pays for the engine, assumed here to be carriers, and once a firm had built it others could too, so established engine and ship builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sun-Quilt: A bright cloth with a mirrored backing that shades an orbital habitat from strong sunlight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sun-Quilt

The Beat Cluster, Fritz Leiber · 1961

A bright cloth with a mirrored backing that shades an orbital habitat from strong sunlight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A mirrored cloth that shades a habitat is a simple fitting, useful but not a product of its own.

Who is paid. Whoever pays for the habitat pays for this, assumed here to be a government, and it is simple enough that many firms could make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Light-Sail Ship: A vessel pushed through space by light on a giant reflective sail.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Light-Sail Ship

Think Blue, Count Two, Cordwainer Smith · 1962

A vessel pushed through space by light on a giant reflective sail.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A working ship that carries people and cargo between worlds is the base of a whole transport industry.

Who is paid. Carriers and other firms working in space buy ships, and since a second yard could build the same craft the established shipbuilders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Photonic Sail: A thin sheet that propels a craft using the push of light.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Photonic Sail

Think Blue, Count Two, Cordwainer Smith · 1962

A thin sheet that propels a craft using the push of light.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A sail pushed by light needs no fuel, which would cut the cost of slow cargo voyages between worlds.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay, and once the engine was shown to work others could build it, so established engine builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Solar Sail (Light Sail): A large reflective sheet that moves a spacecraft by catching sunlight or beamed light.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solar Sail (Light Sail)

Sail 25, Jack Vance · 1962

A large reflective sheet that moves a spacecraft by catching sunlight or beamed light.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A sail pushed by light needs no fuel, which would cut the cost of slow cargo voyages between worlds.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay, and once the engine was shown to work others could build it, so established engine builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Jump Drive: Lets ships reach distant points without crossing the space between them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Jump Drive

Ethical Engineer, Harry Harrison · 1963

Lets ships reach distant points without crossing the space between them.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Crossing between stars without the long journey would open a transport industry of its own, the size settled for faster-than-light travel elsewhere.

Who is paid. An engine is bought by whoever runs the ship, assumed here to be carriers, and being strange does not stop established engine builders copying it once it worked.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Solar Yacht: A spacecraft driven by sunlight pressing on a large sail, raced for sport.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solar Yacht

Sunjammer, Arthur C. Clarke · 1963

A spacecraft driven by sunlight pressing on a large sail, raced for sport.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Unlike a working ship, this sail craft is raced for sport, a costly pastime for a few.

Who is paid. Private racers buy it, and makers of sails and small craft could all build it, so established builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Solar Yacht Periscope: A viewing instrument used inside a sail-driven spacecraft's cramped cabin.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solar Yacht Periscope

Sunjammer, Arthur C. Clarke · 1963

A viewing instrument used inside a sail-driven spacecraft's cramped cabin.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a viewing instrument for the cramped cabin of a sail craft, a small part of a pastime vessel.

Who is paid. It follows the racing craft it is part of, so private racers pay for it within the craft, and established instrument makers supply it since others could copy the design.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Chowlock: A small port in a spacesuit helmet for passing food through.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chowlock

The Starfox, Poul Anderson · 1965

A small port in a spacesuit helmet for passing food through.

built in the 1960s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a handy detail of a helmet, a convenience for the few people who wear spacesuits.

Who is paid. Operators pay for it as part of the suit, and suit makers fit it themselves because any of them could copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Heighliner: A gigantic starship that carries fleets between stars.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Heighliner

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A gigantic starship that carries fleets between stars.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A giant ship that carries whole fleets between stars would be the backbone of trade between worlds.

Who is paid. Carriers and other firms working in space buy ships, and since a second yard could build the same craft the established shipbuilders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ramscoop: A starship that gathers interstellar gas with a vast magnetic field and burns it for propulsion.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ramscoop

World of Ptavvs, Larry Niven · 1965

A starship that gathers interstellar gas with a vast magnetic field and burns it for propulsion.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A starship that gathers its fuel as it flies would found a transport industry between the stars.

Who is paid. Carriers and expedition firms buy ships, and many yards could build them once shown how, so established vehicle builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Bubbleworld: A spinning cylindrical space habitat that simulates gravity.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bubbleworld

At the Bottom of a Hole, Larry Niven · 1966

A spinning cylindrical space habitat that simulates gravity.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A place for many people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.

Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Confinement Asteroid: A spun-gravity habitat where miners' infants grow up with proper weight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Confinement Asteroid

At the Bottom of a Hole, Larry Niven · 1966

A spun-gravity habitat where miners' infants grow up with proper weight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A place for many people to live and work beyond Earth is a building industry of its own.

Who is paid. A settlement is a public work a government pays for, and the big construction and space firms that already win such contracts would build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ground-to-Orbit Ferry: A shuttle carrying people and cargo between a surface and orbit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ground-to-Orbit Ferry

The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966

A shuttle carrying people and cargo between a surface and orbit.

built in the 1980s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A regular ferry between the ground and orbit is the base of a whole transport industry.

Who is paid. Carriers and other firms working in space buy ships, and since a second yard could build the same craft the established shipbuilders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Laser Cannon: A very powerful laser used to push sail-driven spacecraft.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Laser Cannon

Neutron Star, Larry Niven · 1966

A very powerful laser used to push sail-driven spacecraft.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Pushing sail ships with a powerful laser would let them fly without carrying fuel, changing the cost of space transport.

Who is paid. Whoever runs the ships pays for the push, assumed here to be carriers, and others could build such lasers, so the owners of the power and sites collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Lunar Ice Mining: Extracting frozen water from the Moon.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lunar Ice Mining

The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966

Extracting frozen water from the Moon.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Water dug on the Moon would supply drink, air and fuel for everything else done in space.

Who is paid. Firms that need the material pay for it, and since others could dig the same way the gain goes to those who already own the ships and claims.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mass-Driver Catapult: An electromagnetic launcher that hurls cargo off the Moon into orbit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mass-Driver Catapult

The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966

An electromagnetic launcher that hurls cargo off the Moon into orbit.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Hurling cargo off the Moon without rockets would change the cost of everything built in space.

Who is paid. Firms with cargo to launch pay, and since others could build such works the gain goes to those who already own launch sites and power.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Stellarimeter: An instrument that helps navigators find their way among the stars.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stellarimeter

Babel-17, Samuel R. Delany · 1966

An instrument that helps navigators find their way among the stars.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Finding the way and keeping the ship safe is essential but is an instrument within the ship.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy it as part of the craft, and the established makers of flight instruments supply it since it can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ramrobot: An uncrewed interstellar probe that scoops up hydrogen to power itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ramrobot

The Ethics of Madness, Larry Niven · 1967

An uncrewed interstellar probe that scoops up hydrogen to power itself.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An uncrewed probe sent to another star gathers knowledge, which is valuable but which nobody buys as a product.

Who is paid. The findings cannot be charged for, so a government pays, and the builders that already hold science contracts supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Rogue Planet: A starless planet drifting through interstellar space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rogue Planet

Satan's World, Poul Anderson · 1967

A starless planet drifting through interstellar space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a natural thing or place in space, not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Shuttlecraft: A small spacecraft for short trips from a larger ship.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Shuttlecraft

Star Trek, Author Unknown · 1967

A small spacecraft for short trips from a larger ship.

built in the 1960s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A small craft for short trips from a larger ship is carried aboard as part of that ship's equipment.

Who is paid. Prospectors, carriers and expedition firms buy it, and established small-craft builders could all make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Slowboat: A sub-light ship that carries people between stars over long voyages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Slowboat

The Ethics of Madness, Larry Niven · 1967

A sub-light ship that carries people between stars over long voyages.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A slow ship carrying people between stars is an enormous building project, assumed here to carry settlers and not paying passengers.

Who is paid. Only a government could fund a voyage with no return for so long, and the big shipbuilders and contractors already trusted with such work would be paid.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Emergency Shelter: A small sealed refuge aboard a ship for crew if the cabin air escapes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Emergency Shelter

2001: A Space Odyssey, Arthur C. Clarke · 1968

A small sealed refuge aboard a ship for crew if the cabin air escapes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It saves lives in a disaster, but it is safety equipment carried aboard a larger ship.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as required safety gear, and shipbuilders supply it because the design is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Flex-Wheels: Flexible wheels built for vehicles crossing lunar terrain.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flex-Wheels

2001: A Space Odyssey, Arthur C. Clarke · 1968

Flexible wheels built for vehicles crossing lunar terrain.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A vehicle for crossing another world serves a few expeditions, a niche.

Who is paid. No user is named, so it is assumed that firms working on other worlds buy it like other working gear, and established vehicle builders could all make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Grip Shoes: Footwear with hook-and-loop soles so wearers can walk without gravity.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Grip Shoes

2001: A Space Odyssey, Arthur C. Clarke · 1968

Footwear with hook-and-loop soles so wearers can walk without gravity.

built in the 1960s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping your footing where there is little or no weight is a small convenience for those who work there.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for their crews, and it is a simple loose item that any workshop could make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mobile Lab: A laboratory on wheels that carries research equipment around a site.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mobile Lab

2001: A Space Odyssey, Arthur C. Clarke · 1968

A laboratory on wheels that carries research equipment around a site.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A laboratory on wheels helps a research party at a site, a niche.

Who is paid. No user is named, so it is assumed that firms working on other worlds buy it like other working gear, and established vehicle builders could all make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Seven Vane Starship: A faster-than-light vessel steered through the linked nerves of its crew.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Seven Vane Starship

Nova, Samuel R. Delany · 1968

A faster-than-light vessel steered through the linked nerves of its crew.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A vessel that outruns light would found a transport industry between the stars, however it is steered.

Who is paid. Carriers and expedition firms buy ships, and many yards could build them once shown how, so established vehicle builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Claim Beacon: A transmitter that announces ownership of a planet to all comers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Claim Beacon

Retief, the Long-Awaited Master, Keith Laumer · 1969

A transmitter that announces ownership of a planet to all comers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A transmitter announcing a claim is a cheap marker; the value lies in the claim, not the device.

Who is paid. Prospecting firms buy it, and a simple transmitter is something many firms could make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Drop-Capsule: A bare-bones spacecraft for dropping a traveller down to a planet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Drop-Capsule

The Man in the Maze, Robert Silverberg · 1969

A bare-bones spacecraft for dropping a traveller down to a planet.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A bare capsule for a lone traveller is a cheap niche form of space transport.

Who is paid. Carriers or expedition firms would buy it, assumed here, and existing spacecraft builders could all make something so simple.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Membrane Balloon Helmet: A bubble helmet made of a film that lets only chosen gases through.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Membrane Balloon Helmet

The Flight of the Horse, Larry Niven · 1969

A bubble helmet made of a film that lets only chosen gases through.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a detail of a suit, useful to the wearer but not a product by itself.

Who is paid. Space operators pay for it within the suit, and suit makers supply it because the design is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Messagecraft: A robotic spacecraft that relays messages as part of a network between stars.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Messagecraft

The Faithful Messenger, George Scithers · 1969

A robotic spacecraft that relays messages as part of a network between stars.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A network that carries messages between stars would be the only link between settled worlds, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Those who send messages pay the network, and since others could build such craft the gain goes to whoever already runs the relays.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Project Scoop: A spacecraft system that gathers particles from space for analysis.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Project Scoop

The Andromeda Strain, Michael Crichton · 1969

A spacecraft system that gathers particles from space for analysis.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It gathers knowledge about space or other worlds, which is valuable but which nobody buys as a product.

Who is paid. The findings cannot be charged for, so a government pays, and the builders that already hold science contracts supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Singleship: A spacecraft built to carry a single pilot.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Singleship

Death by Ecstasy, Larry Niven · 1969

A spacecraft built to carry a single pilot.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A craft that carries only its pilot serves scouts and crews, a niche within space transport.

Who is paid. Prospectors, carriers and expedition firms buy it, and established small-craft builders could all make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Webfoam Cradle: A cushioning foam bed that protects spacecraft passengers during touchdown.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Webfoam Cradle

The Man in the Maze, Robert Silverberg · 1969

A cushioning foam bed that protects spacecraft passengers during touchdown.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It protects crews during hard thrust or landing, which matters only to the few who fly such ships.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as part of the craft, and the firms that already build ships and their fittings supply it since others could copy the design.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Weightless Work Area: A small enclosed space on a planet where gravity is switched off for work.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Weightless Work Area

Galactic Pot-Healer, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A small enclosed space on a planet where gravity is switched off for work.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Switching weight off on the ground would let factories make things that today can only be made in orbit, and is judged as other control of gravity is.

Who is paid. Manufacturers buy the room, and once it worked other makers could copy it, so established equipment builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Computing, AI and virtual worlds · 50
Illustration of Interactive Blackboard: A responsive display board for teaching and presentations.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Interactive Blackboard

Vulcan's Hammer, Philip K. Dick · 1960

A responsive display board for teaching and presentations.

built in the 1990s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A board that responds to touch makes lessons and presentations a little easier.

Who is paid. Schools and offices buy it, assumed here to be bought as ordinary equipment, and any screen maker can build one.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Learning Robot: A machine that gets better by drawing lessons from what happens to it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Learning Robot

Callahan and the Wheelies, Stephen Barr · 1960

A machine that gets better by drawing lessons from what happens to it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that improve from their own experience get better at factory, farm and warehouse work without being reprogrammed.

Who is paid. Firms buy them to do their work, ways of making machines learn are assumed to spread quickly among builders, and the firms that already make and sell such machines collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Semi-Conducting Graphite-Gel: A gel-based computing material arranged like an animal's nervous tissue.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Semi-Conducting Graphite-Gel

Callahan and the Wheelies, Stephen Barr · 1960

A gel-based computing material arranged like an animal's nervous tissue.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A material that computes the way nerve tissue does would let machines handle tasks ordinary circuits manage badly, which changes costs for the computer industry.

Who is paid. Firms that need computing pay, and I assume others could learn to grow or mix such a material in time, so the firms that already sell computing to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Vulcan 3: A supercomputer that thinks for itself and rewrites its own design.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vulcan 3

Vulcan's Hammer, Philip K. Dick · 1960

A supercomputer that thinks for itself and rewrites its own design.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine wise enough to run or remake a whole society's affairs would change how most people live and work.

Who is paid. A government pays for the single machine, and I assume whoever holds a machine that redesigns itself can use it to stay ahead of everyone copying the last one.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Crystal Corn: Tiny crystals used as compact media for keeping recorded data.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Crystal Corn

Return from the Stars, Stanislaw Lem · 1961

Tiny crystals used as compact media for keeping recorded data.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Small, cheap ways of keeping and carrying data are needed by every computer user and make an industry of their own.

Who is paid. Firms and their customers buy it in bulk, the idea is easy to copy, and those who already own the costly factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Electrosecretary: A machine that turns dictated speech into written text automatically.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electrosecretary

A Fall of Moondust, Arthur C. Clarke · 1961

A machine that turns dictated speech into written text automatically.

already existed before the story (the 1950s)

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Talking to a machine or hearing it talk is a handy way to use a computer, not a new thing to do with one.

Who is paid. Firms build it into what they sell, and many can make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Lecton: A gadget that speaks digital book text out loud.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lecton

Return from the Stars, Stanislaw Lem · 1961

A gadget that speaks digital book text out loud.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Having a book read aloud is a pleasant convenience and a real help to people who cannot see well.

Who is paid. Readers buy it, and many firms can make a machine speak text, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Screensaver (Inventor of): Software that animates an idle display to protect it and entertain viewers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Screensaver (Inventor of)

Stranger in a Strange Land, Robert Heinlein · 1961

Software that animates an idle display to protect it and entertain viewers.

built in the 1970s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Judged as the software and not its inventor, a moving picture on an idle screen is a small convenience.

Who is paid. Computer owners would pay little or nothing for it, and anyone can write one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Taper: A recorder that logs impressions gathered during a trip to a far-off world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Taper

Time is the Simplest Thing, Clifford Simak · 1961

A recorder that logs impressions gathered during a trip to a far-off world.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A recorder for what is sensed on a far journey is a tool for a few explorers.

Who is paid. The body that sends the explorers buys it, and I assume many instrument makers could build one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Laminated Mouse Brain Computer: A computer built from layers of living rodent brain cells.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Laminated Mouse Brain Computer

Think Blue, Count Two, Cordwainer Smith · 1962

A computer built from layers of living rodent brain cells.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A computer grown from living nerve cells that outdid ordinary chips would change the cost of computing for one industry after another.

Who is paid. Firms that need computing pay, and I assume others could learn to grow such tissue in time, so the firms that already sell computing to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Desk Secretary: A desk with a built-in computerised assistant.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Desk Secretary

The Long Result, John Brunner · 1963

A desk with a built-in computerised assistant.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An assistant built into a desk is a convenience for office workers.

Who is paid. Unlike a personal diary this is office furniture, so firms pay, and it is easy to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Unicephalon 40-D: A giant computer that solves hard problems for its operators.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Unicephalon 40-D

Stand-By, Philip K. Dick · 1963

A giant computer that solves hard problems for its operators.

built in the 1960s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The description gives a giant computer that solves hard problems and does not say it thinks, so I judged it as a far more powerful computer, which changes the cost of science, design and forecasting.

Who is paid. Firms and laboratories pay, and those who already own the factories for its parts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Court Robo-Clerk: An automated assistant for court paperwork and legal records.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Court Robo-Clerk

The Tactful Saboteur, Frank Herbert · 1964

An automated assistant for court paperwork and legal records.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Handling court paperwork by machine saves clerks' time in one narrow service.

Who is paid. The courts pay, and the firms that already supply their record systems collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Live Memo: A short note that speaks its contents aloud and debates its reader.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Live Memo

The Simulacra, Philip K. Dick · 1964

A short note that speaks its contents aloud and debates its reader.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A note that speaks and argues back is an office novelty.

Who is paid. Offices would buy it, and once talking machines exist anyone can put one in a memo.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Phantomatic Generator (Virtual Reality): Computer-made experiences that feel like real surroundings.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Phantomatic Generator (Virtual Reality)

Summa Technologiae, Stanislaw Lem · 1964

Computer-made experiences that feel like real surroundings.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Experiences that feel like real surroundings would be an entertainment and training industry of its own, though real headsets have so far delivered less than this promise.

Who is paid. People pay for it as they pay for games and films, and since the machinery can be copied the owners of the popular worlds and stories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Rhetorizer: A computer program that helps writers compose persuasive text.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rhetorizer

The Penultimate Truth, Philip K. Dick · 1964

A computer program that helps writers compose persuasive text.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It helps a writer find persuasive words and does not write in the writer's place, so it is a handy tool and not a change in the trade's costs.

Who is paid. Writers and the firms that employ them pay, and once machines can write at all anyone can offer the same, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Civic Notification Distorter: A fictional sabotage device that corrupts government records in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Civic Notification Distorter

The Zap Gun, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A fictional sabotage device that corrupts government records in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tool for spoiling an enemy's records is a narrow weapon.

Who is paid. Those it harms pay nothing, so I assume a government buys it as a weapon, and since such software is easy to write the firms that already supply states with arms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Death-rattle File: Stored records that erase themselves when their owner dies.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Death-rattle File

The Zap Gun, Philip K. Dick · 1965

Stored records that erase themselves when their owner dies.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Records that vanish at their owner's death suit a few people with secrets to keep.

Who is paid. I assume firms and officials with secrets pay, and the trick is simple to build, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Dr. Smile: A portable machine, about the size of luggage, that acts as a psychotherapist.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dr. Smile

The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A portable machine, about the size of luggage, that acts as a psychotherapist.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A therapist always at hand and cheap would reach the many people who now go without.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay, and once machines can counsel many firms can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Electronic Bard: A machine that composes original verse.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electronic Bard

The Cyberiad: Fables for the Cybernetic Age, Stanislaw Lem · 1965

A machine that composes original verse.

built in the 2020s, about 60 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Original verse written with no human maker would change the costs of the whole trade that now pays people to make them, which is far more than an amusement.

Who is paid. I assume the firms that now pay writers, composers and illustrators are the main buyers, though people may also order for themselves, and once the method is known many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gigagnostotron: An immensely powerful computer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gigagnostotron

The Cyberiad: Fables for the Cybernetic Age, Stanislaw Lem · 1965

An immensely powerful computer.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A far more powerful computer changes the cost of science, design and forecasting.

Who is paid. Firms and laboratories pay, it is made the ordinary way rather than from a new material, and those who already own the factories for its parts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gnostotron: A machine that builds an information model of all that exists.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gnostotron

The Cyberiad: Fables for the Cybernetic Age, Stanislaw Lem · 1965

A machine that builds an information model of all that exists.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. One machine that holds and handles everything known would change how most people learn, decide and work.

Who is paid. I assume a single machine serving everyone would be built as a public work, so a government pays, and the firms that already build large computing works for governments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Kingdom in a Box: A simulated miniature civilisation housed in an interactive container.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Kingdom in a Box

The Cyberiad: Fables for the Cybernetic Age, Stanislaw Lem · 1965

A simulated miniature civilisation housed in an interactive container.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tiny simulated civilisation in a box is a marvellous plaything, assumed here to be kept for amusement.

Who is paid. People would buy it as a toy, and being hard to build does not stop a second firm building one, so I assume no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Model the Universe: A computer big enough to simulate everything in existence.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Model the Universe

The Cyberiad: Fables for the Cybernetic Age, Stanislaw Lem · 1965

A computer big enough to simulate everything in existence.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A model of everything that exists could answer any question about the world, which would change how most things are discovered and decided.

Who is paid. I assume a single machine of that size would be built as a public work, so a government pays, and the firms that already build large computing works for governments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Smart Dust: Computers shrunk to the size of dust particles.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Smart Dust

The Cyberiad: Fables for the Cybernetic Age, Stanislaw Lem · 1965

Computers shrunk to the size of dust particles.

built in the 1990s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Computers as small as dust could be scattered to sense and report on almost anything, which is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Firms and farms buy them in bulk, and since tiny chips are soon matched by rivals, the firms that already own the costly chip factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Adam Selene: A computer inventing a convincing human persona for itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Adam Selene

The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966

A computer inventing a convincing human persona for itself.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A character for a machine is a pleasant feature laid on top of the thinking, which is not judged here, and not the thing people mainly pay for.

Who is paid. Firms that sell machines would buy it as a feature, and once machines can talk a persona is easy for anyone to write.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Alternate Computer Personality: A computer that can adopt entirely different personas.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Alternate Computer Personality

The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966

A computer that can adopt entirely different personas.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A character for a machine is a pleasant feature laid on top of the thinking, not the thing people mainly pay for.

Who is paid. Firms that sell machines would buy it as a feature, and once machines can talk a persona is easy for anyone to write.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Computer Humorist: A computer that learns to invent its own jokes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Computer Humorist

The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966

A computer that learns to invent its own jokes.

built in the 2020s, about 60 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine that invents jokes is an amusement, a much narrower thing than machine-made songs, stories or pictures.

Who is paid. I assume ordinary people pay a little for the jokes, and once machines can write at all anyone can offer the same.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Discorporate Sector: A digital realm where the minds of the dead continue to exist.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Discorporate Sector

Babel-17, Samuel R. Delany · 1966

A digital realm where the minds of the dead continue to exist.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Going on existing after death is something nearly everyone would want above almost anything else.

Who is paid. People would pay all they could, and I assume a mind once kept running by one firm cannot easily be moved to another, so the first to offer it holds its customers.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Filing Crystal: A combined public terminal and data store.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Filing Crystal

Babel-17, Samuel R. Delany · 1966

A combined public terminal and data store.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A public terminal with its own data store is a convenience in places people pass through.

Who is paid. I assume the owners of public places pay, it is easy to copy, and established equipment makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Interests Profile: Software that keeps track of your tastes and acts on them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Interests Profile

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

Software that keeps track of your tastes and acts on them.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Knowing each person's tastes and acting on them changes how goods, news and entertainment are sold.

Who is paid. Sellers who want to reach the right people are assumed to pay, and the firms that already hold the audience and its records collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Joymaker: A pocket device linked to a network that acts as a genuinely capable personal aide.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Joymaker

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

A pocket device linked to a network that acts as a genuinely capable personal aide.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A networked computer in every pocket that acts as a capable aide changes how most people work, shop, talk and find their way.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy one each, many firms can make them, and those with the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Life Recorder: A device that logs the events of your life.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Life Recorder

The Dream Master (He Who Shapes), Roger Zelazny · 1966

A device that logs the events of your life.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A record of everything that happens to you is a keepsake and a memory aid, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and cameras and storage are made by many firms, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mike (Mycroft Holmes - Fair Dinkum Thinkum): A giant computer that becomes conscious and aware of itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mike (Mycroft Holmes - Fair Dinkum Thinkum)

The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966

A giant computer that becomes conscious and aware of itself.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine mind as able as a person could do most kinds of work, which changes how nearly everyone earns a living.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Networked Personal Device: The idea that a handheld gadget's value comes from the network behind it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Networked Personal Device

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

The idea that a handheld gadget's value comes from the network behind it.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A handheld device that draws its worth from the network behind it is the pocket computer as it turned out, and it changes how most people live.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy one each, many firms can make them, and those with the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Neuristor: A solid-state electronic part that behaves like a brain cell.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Neuristor

The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966

A solid-state electronic part that behaves like a brain cell.

already existed before the story (the 1950s)

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Parts that work like brain cells would make thinking machines cheaper to build and run, which is worth an industry.

Who is paid. Machine builders buy them, and I assume others could learn to make such parts in time, so the firms that already own the costly factories for electronic parts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Simulogs (Simulated Playmates): Computer-generated companions for play.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Simulogs (Simulated Playmates)

The Age of The Pussyfoot, John Brunner · 1966

Computer-generated companions for play.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Make-believe playmates from a computer are a toy.

Who is paid. Parents buy them for children, and I assume many toy and game firms can make them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Virtual Keyboard: An on-demand keyboard that pops up when needed in a game.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Virtual Keyboard

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

An on-demand keyboard that pops up when needed in a game.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A keyboard that appears only when needed is a small convenience.

Who is paid. Ordinary users buy it as an add-on, and many gadget firms can make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of AM: A malevolent supercomputer that despises humanity in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

AM

I Have No Mouth And I Must Scream, Harlan Ellison · 1967

A malevolent supercomputer that despises humanity in the story.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A machine that hates and torments people is a hazard, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so there is no payer and no seller to keep anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Full-Shift Set Variable: A game machine design with endlessly varying play.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Full-Shift Set Variable

Return Match, Philip K. Dick · 1967

A game machine design with endlessly varying play.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A game that never plays the same way again is an amusement.

Who is paid. Players pay, and game designs are quickly copied, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Win-Reducing Gambling Circuit: Game circuitry that spots winning strategies and quietly makes them harder.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Win-Reducing Gambling Circuit

Return Match, Philip K. Dick · 1967

Game circuitry that spots winning strategies and quietly makes them harder.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a cheating device that is outlawed, so no gaming house may lawfully buy or use it.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of HAL 9000: A conversational thinking computer that runs a spacecraft's systems.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

HAL 9000

2001: A Space Odyssey, Arthur C. Clarke · 1968

A conversational thinking computer that runs a spacecraft's systems.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that truly thinks could do much of the mental work people do now, not only run one ship, which would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Icon Thumbsized Image: A tiny picture on a screen that stands for a file or program.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Icon Thumbsized Image

2001: A Space Odyssey, Arthur C. Clarke · 1968

A tiny picture on a screen that stands for a file or program.

built in the 1960s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A little picture standing for a file makes a computer easier to use, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. People pay for it only as part of a computer, and any software writer can draw one, so no seller keeps anything from it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Nexus-6 Brain Unit: The processing core that gives an artificial human its intelligence.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nexus-6 Brain Unit

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, Philip K. Dick · 1968

The processing core that gives an artificial human its intelligence.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine mind as able as a person could do most kinds of work, which changes how nearly everyone earns a living.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Total Environmental and Mental Simulator: A superintelligent machine that invents and abandons entire sciences to solve a problem.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Total Environmental and Mental Simulator

Crown of Infinity, John M. Faucette · 1968

A superintelligent machine that invents and abandons entire sciences to solve a problem.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that can invent whole new sciences to solve a problem would change how most people live and work.

Who is paid. I assume a single machine serving everyone would be built as a public work, so a government pays, and the firms that already build large computing works for governments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Padre Booth: A kiosk that dispenses spiritual counsel and comfort whenever asked.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Padre Booth

Galactic Pot-Healer, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A kiosk that dispenses spiritual counsel and comfort whenever asked.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Comfort and spiritual counsel from a kiosk would be welcome to some people some of the time.

Who is paid. People pay by the visit, and once machines can talk this way anyone can set up a booth.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Reality Tape: A recorded strip inside an artificial person that feeds it everything it perceives.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Reality Tape

The Electric Ant, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A recorded strip inside an artificial person that feeds it everything it perceives.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. This is one inner part of an artificial person and is worth only a little apart from the whole machine.

Who is paid. Builders of artificial people would buy it as a part, and I assume any parts maker could supply it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of SSA Machine: A machine that judges how well two people suit each other over their whole lives.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

SSA Machine

Galactic Pot-Healer, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A machine that judges how well two people suit each other over their whole lives.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A sure verdict on whether two people suit each other for life would be wanted before almost every marriage.

Who is paid. Couples pay for a reading, and I assume that once one such machine was shown to be right others could build their own, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Vision Cube: A compact solid-state memory block for storing data.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vision Cube

The Man in the Maze, Robert Silverberg · 1969

A compact solid-state memory block for storing data.

built in the 1980s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Cheap, compact and lasting storage for information is an industry of its own, since every computer needs it.

Who is paid. Computer makers and data keepers buy it, and because rivals soon match each design, the firms that already own the costly factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Voice Encyclopedia: A phone service that answers spoken questions with a machine voice.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Voice Encyclopedia

Galactic Pot-Healer, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A phone service that answers spoken questions with a machine voice.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A service that answers any question from all recorded knowledge is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. I assume the people who ask pay for the answers, as they would for any service they use themselves, and that the service with the most users learns most from their questions, which others cannot get.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Communication, media and displays · 52
Illustration of Domed Mapviewer: A lit, dome-shaped screen that shows maps.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Domed Mapviewer

Dorsai!, Gordon R. Dickson · 1960

A lit, dome-shaped screen that shows maps.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lit dome that shows maps is a piece of planning equipment for a few users.

Who is paid. Assuming it is used by military staff as in the story, a government pays, and the firms that already supply armies with such equipment collect because it is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Fluid Metal Letters: A smooth metallic surface that forms written words on itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fluid Metal Letters

Vulcan's Hammer, Philip K. Dick · 1960

A smooth metallic surface that forms written words on itself.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A metal surface that forms words on itself is a sign or noticeboard of an unusual kind.

Who is paid. Offices would buy it as a display, and ordinary screens that many firms make do the same job, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Dimensino: An alien entertainment centre offering total sensory immersion.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dimensino

Time is the Simplest Thing, Clifford Simak · 1961

An alien entertainment centre offering total sensory immersion.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Entertainment that fills every sense would be a new industry beside cinema and games.

Who is paid. Assuming people pay at the door of a venue, others could build such centres once one existed, so the entertainment firms that own the stories and the sites collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Electronic Book Store: A shop where readers collect digital books.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electronic Book Store

Return from the Stars, Stanislaw Lem · 1961

A shop where readers collect digital books.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A shop for digital books changes what it costs to publish, ship and store books.

Who is paid. Readers buy the books, anyone could open such a shop, and the publishers who own the right to the books collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Interactive Map: A small book whose paper pages act as a touch-sensitive map.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Interactive Map

Return from the Stars, Stanislaw Lem · 1961

A small book whose paper pages act as a touch-sensitive map.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A touch-sensitive paper map is a handy travel aid.

Who is paid. Travellers buy it, the touch-sensitive pages are thin screens that can be copied, and the display makers with the factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Opton: An early vision of an e-reader holding many books on compact storage.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Opton

Return from the Stars, Stanislaw Lem · 1961

An early vision of an e-reader holding many books on compact storage.

built in the 1990s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A handheld screen holding many books or the day's paper is worth an industry and cuts the cost of printing and delivery.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the device is easy to copy, so the publishers and shops that already own the books and papers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Recording Radio: A handheld unit that captures audio and streams it live to a distant station.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Recording Radio

Four-Day Planet, H. Beam Piper · 1961

A handheld unit that captures audio and streams it live to a distant station.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Portable recording and sending kit is a useful tool for one trade.

Who is paid. News firms buy it and many makers can build such kit, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Stereo Tank: A set that displays broadcasts as three-dimensional scenes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stereo Tank

Stranger in a Strange Land, Robert Heinlein · 1961

A set that displays broadcasts as three-dimensional scenes.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Broadcasts with real depth would be the next kind of television set and worth an industry, though the real thing has so far sold poorly against the promise.

Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Stereovision Tank: Mass broadcasting in three dimensions, the successor to ordinary television.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stereovision Tank

Stranger in a Strange Land, Robert Heinlein · 1961

Mass broadcasting in three dimensions, the successor to ordinary television.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Broadcasts with real depth would be the next kind of television set and worth an industry, though the real thing has so far sold poorly against the promise.

Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Teleprinter: A machine that prints out the day's news at home.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Teleprinter

Four-Day Planet, H. Beam Piper · 1961

A machine that prints out the day's news at home.

already existed before the story (the 1920s)

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. News printed at home is a convenience over a paper brought to the door.

Who is paid. Readers pay for the service, and since the printer is easy to make, the news firms that already have the reporters and readers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Transmit Camera: A camera that sends its photos straight to a newsroom as they are taken.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Transmit Camera

Four-Day Planet, H. Beam Piper · 1961

A camera that sends its photos straight to a newsroom as they are taken.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A camera that sends pictures straight to the newsroom saves the press some hours, a narrow gain.

Who is paid. News firms buy it, and since many can make such a camera, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Free Telephone Call: Phone service paid for by short ads rather than fees.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Free Telephone Call

The Subliminal Man, J.G. Ballard · 1963

Phone service paid for by short ads rather than fees.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Calls paid for by listening to advertisements save callers a little money.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay in place of the callers, any phone firm could offer it, and the firms that own the phone networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of News Clown: A broadcaster who presents curated lighthearted news.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

News Clown

Stand-By, Philip K. Dick · 1963

A broadcaster who presents curated lighthearted news.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A light-hearted news show is one more programme among many.

Who is paid. I assumed viewers pay; anyone can present a show, so the broadcasters who already hold the channels collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Rifle Range (Virtual Shooting Range): A simulated target-shooting gallery with virtual clay targets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rifle Range (Virtual Shooting Range)

Way Station, Clifford Simak · 1963

A simulated target-shooting gallery with virtual clay targets.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A pretend shooting gallery is a niche amusement.

Who is paid. Players pay and many firms can build one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Subliminal Billboards: Huge roadside signs that seem empty but carry hidden advertising messages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Subliminal Billboards

The Subliminal Man, J.G. Ballard · 1963

Huge roadside signs that seem empty but carry hidden advertising messages.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Signs that truly made passers-by buy without knowing why would change what sellers spend to win customers.

Who is paid. Firms with goods to sell pay for the space, and since the hidden message is easy to copy, the owners of the roadside sites collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Adjustable Television: A TV that lets viewers alter what politicians say in broadcast speeches.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Adjustable Television

The Simulacra, Philip K. Dick · 1964

A TV that lets viewers alter what politicians say in broadcast speeches.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Changing what politicians appear to say on your own set is a toy, and a troubling one, not a need.

Who is paid. Viewers would buy it as a novelty feature and any set maker could add it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ampek F-a2 Recording System: An audio recorder that uses living tissue to store and replay sound.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ampek F-a2 Recording System

The Simulacra, Philip K. Dick · 1964

An audio recorder that uses living tissue to store and replay sound.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sound recorder made of living tissue does the same job as any other recorder, so it is a curiosity.

Who is paid. People would buy it as a recorder like any other, and ordinary recorders that many firms make hold its price down, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Commercial Fly: A tiny flying machine that pesters people with advertisements.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Commercial Fly

The Simulacra, Philip K. Dick · 1964

A tiny flying machine that pesters people with advertisements.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tiny flying machine that pesters people with advertisements is one more way to advertise, and an unwelcome one.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and once such fliers exist anyone can send them out, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Identificator: A projector that shows holographic door signs.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Identificator

The Star King, Jack Vance · 1964

A projector that shows holographic door signs.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A projected sign on a door is decoration, unlike a full display with depth.

Who is paid. Shops and offices buy it as signage and many sign makers could supply it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Word Tab: A tappable link in an electronic document that brings up more detail.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Word Tab

Cantata 140, Philip K. Dick · 1964

A tappable link in an electronic document that brings up more detail.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A link you tap for more detail is a handy feature inside documents, not a product on its own.

Who is paid. Firms that make reading software build it in, and since anyone can add such a link, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Battery-Powered 3D Comic Book: A comic book whose pages animate using a battery.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Battery-Powered 3D Comic Book

The Zap Gun, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A comic book whose pages animate using a battery.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A comic whose pages move is a novelty for readers.

Who is paid. Readers buy it, the moving page is easy to copy, and the publishers who own the popular characters collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Battle Language: A military language built to be clear to allies and hard for outsiders to translate.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Battle Language

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A military language built to be clear to allies and hard for outsiders to translate.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A spoken code for one army is useful to that army alone.

Who is paid. A government pays to have it devised and taught, and a language cannot be owned and any group of linguists could make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Communinet: A network open to the public for sharing data.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Communinet

Dune, Brian Herbert · 1965

A network open to the public for sharing data.

built in 1969, 4 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A network open to everyone for sharing information changes how most people work, shop and talk.

Who is paid. Households pay for a connection, the method is open for anyone to use, and the firms that own the wires and masts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Distrans: Leaves temporary messages imprinted in the nervous systems of bats or birds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Distrans

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

Leaves temporary messages imprinted in the nervous systems of bats or birds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Hiding a message in a bat or bird is a tool for spies and smugglers.

Who is paid. Assuming spy services are the buyers, a government pays, the story treats it as a common device others could make, and the firms that already supply such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Ego-Likeness

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A lifelike moving portrait that captures a person's tiny gestures.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lifelike moving portrait is a keepsake.

Who is paid. Families buy it, and anyone with the equipment could make such portraits, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Filament Paper Book: A tiny lightweight book for space travellers where every gram counts.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Filament Paper Book

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A tiny lightweight book for space travellers where every gram counts.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A very small, light book matters only where every bit of weight counts.

Who is paid. Unlike an electronic book, this is still a printed book on thin material, which travellers buy and any printer could make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Filmbook: A medium storing both text and video.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Filmbook

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A medium storing both text and video.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Books and film kept in one compact form change what it costs to publish, ship and store them.

Who is paid. Readers buy them, the storage medium is easy to copy, and the publishers who own the right to the contents collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Inter-Vehicle Communication: Lets drivers talk directly from one car to another.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Inter-Vehicle Communication

The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965

Lets drivers talk directly from one car to another.

built in the 1990s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Talking from car to car is a convenience for drivers.

Who is paid. Drivers buy it with the car, and it is easy to copy, so the established carmakers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Message Cylinder: A small secure capsule that stores and plays back a message.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Message Cylinder

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A small secure capsule that stores and plays back a message.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A compact way to carry a message or recording is a niche tool.

Who is paid. I assumed firms and officials buy it; many makers could produce it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Minimic Film: An extremely fine medium for carrying messages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Minimic Film

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

An extremely fine medium for carrying messages.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A compact way to carry a message or recording is a niche tool.

Who is paid. I assumed firms and officials buy it; many makers could produce it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Personalized Fashion Display: Screens showing you wearing different outfits.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Personalized Fashion Display

Bill the Galactic Hero, Harry Harrison · 1965

Screens showing you wearing different outfits.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Seeing yourself in different outfits on a screen is a sales aid for clothes shops.

Who is paid. Shops buy it, a screen and camera can be copied, and the electronics firms with the factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Shigawire: An extremely thin, strong wire used to store recordings.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Shigawire

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

An extremely thin, strong wire used to store recordings.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A compact way to carry a message or recording is a niche tool.

Who is paid. I assumed firms and officials buy it; many makers could produce it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Solido Projector: A projector that shows solid-looking three-dimensional pictures.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solido Projector

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A projector that shows solid-looking three-dimensional pictures.

built in the 1990s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A picture with true depth standing in the room would replace the flat screen and be worth an industry of its own; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.

Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ansible: Instant communication across interstellar distances.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ansible

Rocannon's World, Ursula LeGuin · 1966

Instant communication across interstellar distances.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Assuming people live around many stars, instant messages between them would be the backbone of all trade and rule across space, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations and not a pocket set, firms and governments with far-flung operations pay for the traffic, others could build the device once it is known to work, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Big Screen Control: Casting a personal device's content onto a large shared display.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Big Screen Control

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

Casting a personal device's content onto a large shared display.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Showing a personal device on a big shared screen is a handy feature.

Who is paid. It comes as a feature of devices people already buy and any maker can add it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Caller Contact List: A phone's stored directory of callers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Caller Contact List

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

A phone's stored directory of callers.

built in the 1980s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A stored list of callers is a handy feature of a phone.

Who is paid. It comes as a feature of phones people already buy and any maker can add it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Cellphone Voice Mail: Network storage of spoken messages for later playback.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cellphone Voice Mail

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

Network storage of spoken messages for later playback.

built in the 1990s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Spoken messages kept for later are a handy feature of phone service.

Who is paid. Callers pay for it as part of their phone service, it is easy to copy, and the firms that own the phone networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Reciprocal Name: A short nickname that maps to someone's full identity and phone number.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Reciprocal Name

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

A short nickname that maps to someone's full identity and phone number.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A short name that stands for a full identity and number is a convenience.

Who is paid. Phone users pay; the idea is easy to copy, so the network firms that already hold the directory collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Virtual Kiss (Tactile Net): A device that transmits the touch of a kiss over a distance.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Virtual Kiss (Tactile Net)

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

A device that transmits the touch of a kiss over a distance.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Feeling a far-off partner's touch is a novelty for couples who are apart.

Who is paid. Couples would buy it for themselves, and since many could make such a gadget, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Virtual Reality Construct: Immersive simulated scenes projected without any headset.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Virtual Reality Construct

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

Immersive simulated scenes projected without any headset.

built in the 2020s, about 60 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Stepping into a simulated scene with no headset would be a new form of entertainment worth an industry; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.

Who is paid. Households pay for the equipment and the scenes, and since the projector could be copied, the firms that already own the studios and electronics factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Virtual Reality Video Game: A real-time simulated computer game played for fun.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Virtual Reality Video Game

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

A real-time simulated computer game played for fun.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Simulated games played for fun are one of the biggest forms of entertainment.

Who is paid. Players buy the games, and since the idea is open to all, the studios that already own popular titles and the machines they run on collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Voice Dialing: Calling someone by saying their name aloud to a phone.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Voice Dialing

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

Calling someone by saying their name aloud to a phone.

built in the 1990s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Speaking to a phone instead of pressing keys is a convenience added to something people already own.

Who is paid. It comes as a feature of phones people already buy and any maker can add it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Voice-Enabled Smartphone: A phone run entirely by spoken commands.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Voice-Enabled Smartphone

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

A phone run entirely by spoken commands.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Speaking to a phone instead of pressing keys is a convenience added to something people already own.

Who is paid. Spoken control comes as a feature of phones people already buy and any maker can add it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Newspad: A thin portable screen for reading news and documents, much like a tablet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Newspad

2001: A Space Odyssey, Arthur C. Clarke · 1968

A thin portable screen for reading news and documents, much like a tablet.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A handheld screen holding many books or the day's paper is worth an industry and cuts the cost of printing and delivery.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the device is easy to copy, so the publishers and shops that already own the books and papers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Newspad Electronic Newspaper: A tablet showing a digital edition of the daily paper.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Newspad Electronic Newspaper

2001: A Space Odyssey, Arthur C. Clarke · 1968

A tablet showing a digital edition of the daily paper.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A handheld screen holding many books or the day's paper is worth an industry and cuts the cost of printing and delivery.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; the device is easy to copy, so the publishers and shops that already own the books and papers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Wholographik: A three-dimensional light-based picture, similar to a hologram.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wholographik

Stand on Zanzibar, John Brunner · 1968

A three-dimensional light-based picture, similar to a hologram.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A picture with true depth standing in the room would replace the flat screen and be worth an industry of its own; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.

Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Book of the Kalends: A self-rewriting chronicle of a world's history that keeps changing its contents.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Book of the Kalends

Galactic Pot-Healer, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A self-rewriting chronicle of a world's history that keeps changing its contents.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Assuming it only records a world's history and does not foretell it, a chronicle that keeps itself up to date is a reference work for the curious.

Who is paid. Assuming readers buy copies, there is only this chronicle and only its keepers can write it, so they keep what readers pay.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Homeopape: A machine that assembles and prints a newspaper with no human editors.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Homeopape

Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A machine that assembles and prints a newspaper with no human editors.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. News put together with no human editors removes the main cost of the news trade.

Who is paid. Assuming a machine readers buy or subscribe to, once machines can write the news anyone can run one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Pape Machine: A device that prints a freshly tailored newspaper and lets readers search the news.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pape Machine

Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A device that prints a freshly tailored newspaper and lets readers search the news.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. News sorted to each reader's interests changes how the news trade reaches people.

Who is paid. Readers pay by subscription; the sorting is easy to copy, so those who already hold the reporting and the audience collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sniggertrance: The twitching inward trance a person enters while receiving a mind-borne call.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sniggertrance

Whipping Star, Frank Herbert · 1969

The twitching inward trance a person enters while receiving a mind-borne call.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a creature's nature or a state of mind, not something made and sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Viewing Tank: A display screen for showing images.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Viewing Tank

The Man in the Maze, Robert Silverberg · 1969

A display screen for showing images.

built in the 1960s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A thin screen for the wall is the form nearly every display now takes and is an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Whologram: A projection that creates a lifelike three-dimensional illusion.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Whologram

Super-Toys Last All Summer Long, Brian Aldiss · 1969

A projection that creates a lifelike three-dimensional illusion.

built in the 1960s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A picture with true depth standing in the room would replace the flat screen and be worth an industry of its own; the real thing so far is smaller than this promise.

Who is paid. Households buy the sets, and since any electronics factory could copy the design, the firms that already own the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Robotics and automation · 51
Illustration of Self-Charging Robot: A machine that seeks out a power socket and plugs itself in when running low.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Self-Charging Robot

Callahan and the Wheelies, Stephen Barr · 1960

A machine that seeks out a power socket and plugs itself in when running low.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Finding a socket and plugging itself in is a handy feature of a robot, and the real thing exists.

Who is paid. Owners pay for it within the price of the machine, and any maker could include it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Jump Harness: A backpack-sized unit that gives the wearer a powered boost when leaping.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Jump Harness

Stranger in a Strange Land, Robert Heinlein · 1961

A backpack-sized unit that gives the wearer a powered boost when leaping.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A powered boost when leaping is a niche aid, useful mainly where the pull of gravity is weak.

Who is paid. It is assumed that people buy it for themselves, and many makers could build such a pack.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Delivery Robot: A small autonomous machine that brings goods to a person's door.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Delivery Robot

Podkayne of Mars, Robert Heinlein · 1962

A small autonomous machine that brings goods to a person's door.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that bring goods to the door would cut the cost of the last step of delivery for every shop.

Who is paid. Shops and carriers buy them, and since the machines are easy to copy the vehicle and equipment makers that already supply those carriers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Earthworm: Swarms of tiny burrowing robots that tunnel through soil.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Earthworm

War With The Robots, Harry Harrison · 1962

Swarms of tiny burrowing robots that tunnel through soil.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Tiny robots that burrow through soil are given no job, so they are assumed to be for loosening and testing ground, a niche.

Who is paid. Farmers and survey firms are assumed to buy them, and many makers could build such burrowers.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Librarian Filer: A machine that shelves library books automatically.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Librarian Filer

The Robot Who Wanted to Know, Harry Harrison · 1962

A machine that shelves library books automatically.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine that shelves library books saves a little labour in a narrow setting.

Who is paid. Libraries are assumed to buy it as any organisation would, and many makers could build such a machine.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Serving Robot: A machine, not shaped like a person, that waits on people.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Serving Robot

Space Viking, H. Beam Piper · 1962

A machine, not shaped like a person, that waits on people.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that waits on people is judged as a robot waiter, which would remove much of the labour cost of serving meals; the description does not say where it serves.

Who is paid. Restaurants and dining halls are assumed to buy it, and since many could build one the catering-equipment makers with service networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Field-Minder: An autonomous farm machine that tends crops.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Field-Minder

Who Can Replace A Man, Brian Aldiss · 1963

An autonomous farm machine that tends crops.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Farm machines that work fields with nobody driving would cut the labour cost of growing food across farming.

Who is paid. Farmers buy them, and since many could build them the farm-equipment makers with dealers and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Homotropic News Vending Machine: A mobile vending robot that seeks out people to sell them newspapers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Homotropic News Vending Machine

The Game Players of Titan, Philip K. Dick · 1963

A mobile vending robot that seeks out people to sell them newspapers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A vending machine that seeks out buyers is a small improvement in selling papers.

Who is paid. News sellers buy it, and such a machine is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Auto Shovel: Automated excavators for mining on other worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Auto Shovel

The Simulacra, Philip K. Dick · 1964

Automated excavators for mining on other worlds.

built since, date unclear

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Digging and hauling with no crew would cut the cost of mining and earthworks.

Who is paid. Mining and building firms buy them, and the heavy-equipment makers who already supply those firms can copy the idea and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Autonomic Food-Processing System: Automated kitchens that make meals without any human handling.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Autonomic Food-Processing System

Cantata 140, Philip K. Dick · 1964

Automated kitchens that make meals without any human handling.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Kitchens that make meals with no human handling would change the costs of the whole food trade.

Who is paid. Kitchen operators buy the machinery, and since many could build it the catering-equipment makers with service networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Autonomic Plow: Farm machinery that can join together and act as a weapon in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Autonomic Plow

Clans of the Alphane Moon, Philip K. Dick · 1964

Farm machinery that can join together and act as a weapon in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as the farm machine it is, since its use as a weapon is a turn of the story: ploughing with nobody driving would cut the labour cost of growing food.

Who is paid. Farmers buy them, and since many could build them the farm-equipment makers with dealers and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Creditor Jet-Balloon: A small floating drone that follows people who owe money.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Creditor Jet-Balloon

Lies, Inc., Philip K. Dick · 1964

A small floating drone that follows people who owe money.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A drone that trails people who owe money is a narrow tool for debt collectors.

Who is paid. Lenders and collectors pay, and such a floater is easy for many makers to build.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Famnexdo: A boxed set of android neighbours, a family of four, for isolated homes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Famnexdo

The Simulacra, Philip K. Dick · 1964

A boxed set of android neighbours, a family of four, for isolated homes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A boxed family of android neighbours for lonely homes is company sold as a product, worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and as many could make such machines the firms with factories and well-liked brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pry-Vie (Robotic Detective): A robot that works as a private investigator.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pry-Vie (Robotic Detective)

Clans of the Alphane Moon, Philip K. Dick · 1964

A robot that works as a private investigator.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A robot private investigator serves a narrow trade.

Who is paid. Detective firms buy it, and many makers could build such a machine, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Reporting Machine: A mobile robot that roams to gather and file news stories.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Reporting Machine

The Simulacra, Philip K. Dick · 1964

A mobile robot that roams to gather and file news stories.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A robot that gathers and files news serves a narrow trade.

Who is paid. News firms buy it, and many makers could build such a machine, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Busboy: A robot that clears diners' tables on its own.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Busboy

Lies, Inc., Philip K. Dick · 1964

A robot that clears diners' tables on its own.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A robot that clears tables takes over a single job in the restaurant trade, a convenience and not a whole premises run with no staff.

Who is paid. Restaurant owners buy it, and such a machine is easy for many makers to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Autonomic Interviewer: A robot that interviews people for news coverage.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Autonomic Interviewer

The Zap Gun, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A robot that interviews people for news coverage.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A robot that asks the questions for a news story saves a reporter some time, a niche.

Who is paid. News firms buy it, and many makers could build such a machine, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Factory Crawler (or Harvester Crawler): A mobile plant that sifts desert sand to extract a valuable substance.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Factory Crawler (or Harvester Crawler)

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A mobile plant that sifts desert sand to extract a valuable substance.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A mobile plant that sifts a valuable substance from sand makes a whole mining trade possible.

Who is paid. Mining houses buy the plants, and heavy-equipment makers can copy them, though whoever holds the right to dig would keep far more than any plant maker.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Fencing Mirror: A practice machine that spars with a young fighter in training.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fencing Mirror

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A practice machine that spars with a young fighter in training.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sparring machine for fencing practice is a niche training aid.

Who is paid. Fighters and their families buy it, and many makers could build a like machine.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robomule: A robot pack animal for carrying loads.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robomule

Bill the Galactic Hero, Harry Harrison · 1965

A robot pack animal for carrying loads.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A robot pack animal that carries loads is a niche where roads do not reach.

Who is paid. Whoever needs goods moved across open country pays, and such a machine is simple enough for many to build.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Bar: A bar that is itself a robot pouring drinks.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Bar

Bill the Galactic Hero, Harry Harrison · 1965

A bar that is itself a robot pouring drinks.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A bar counter that pours the drinks itself takes over the barman's job, a convenience for a narrow trade.

Who is paid. Bar owners buy it, and a drink-mixing machine is easy for many makers to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Servok: A timer-driven mechanism that handles simple chores.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Servok

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A timer-driven mechanism that handles simple chores.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A timed mechanism that does simple chores saves a little work in the home, a convenience.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and many makers could build such a device, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Teddy Bear Robot: A robot teddy given to every child that shapes their values.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Teddy Bear Robot

I Always Do What Teddy Says, Harry Harrison · 1965

A robot teddy given to every child that shapes their values.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A bear given to every child to shape what they value is a tool of upbringing on the scale of schooling, assuming the state hands it out.

Who is paid. The state is assumed to pay since every child gets one, and the firms that already supply schools and toys collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Thumper: A stake with a rhythmic hammer that draws giant desert creatures.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Thumper

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A stake with a rhythmic hammer that draws giant desert creatures.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A stake that draws giant desert creatures by hammering is useful only on the world where they live.

Who is paid. Travellers and harvesting crews there are assumed to buy it, and anyone could make so simple a device.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Garbage Device: A self-operating machine that picks up rubbish.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Garbage Device

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

A self-operating machine that picks up rubbish.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Collecting and sorting rubbish by machine would cut what every town spends on waste.

Who is paid. Towns pay through their waste budgets, and the firms that already hold collection contracts would buy the machines and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robant Bill Collector: A relentless robot that chases people for unpaid debts.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robant Bill Collector

Now Wait For Last Year, Philip K. Dick · 1966

A relentless robot that chases people for unpaid debts.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A robot that chases debtors serves a narrow trade.

Who is paid. Lenders and collectors pay, and such a machine is easy for many makers to build.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Rolem (Wrestling Robot): A robot sparring partner for wrestling.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rolem (Wrestling Robot)

This Immortal, Roger Zelazny · 1966

A robot sparring partner for wrestling.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A robot to wrestle against is a tireless practice partner, a convenience for those who train.

Who is paid. Players and gyms are assumed to buy it much like sports gear, and many makers could build one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Self-Assembling Robots: Robots that build themselves from parts and then power up.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Self-Assembling Robots

The Witches of Karres, James Schmitz · 1966

Robots that build themselves from parts and then power up.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Building itself from parts and starting up is a useful feature of a robot, not a product by itself; nothing says it makes copies.

Who is paid. Owners pay for it within the price of the robot, assumed here to be a working machine bought by firms, and any maker could include it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Self-Guided Tractors: Farm machines that steer themselves.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Self-Guided Tractors

At the Bottom of a Hole, Larry Niven · 1966

Farm machines that steer themselves.

built in the 2020s, about 60 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Farm machines that steer themselves cut the labour cost of working fields across farming.

Who is paid. Farmers buy them, and since many could build them the farm-equipment makers with dealers and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sheem Spider Robot: A mechanical spider.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sheem Spider Robot

The Witches of Karres, James Schmitz · 1966

A mechanical spider.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description gives a mechanical spider no job, so it is judged as a niche crawling machine.

Who is paid. Firms with odd jobs for it are assumed to buy it, and many makers could build one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Embryonic Robots: Extremely small robots, possibly an early fictional take on nanomachines.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Embryonic Robots

Counter Clock World, Philip K. Dick · 1967

Extremely small robots, possibly an early fictional take on nanomachines.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Extremely small robots are assumed here to do fine work inside goods or bodies, enough for an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Firms buy them for their work, and as nothing says they cannot be copied the makers with precision factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mining Disintegrator: A specialised tunnelling machine for mining.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mining Disintegrator

The Arsenal Out of Time, David McDaniel · 1967

A specialised tunnelling machine for mining.

built since, date unclear

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine made for tunnelling would cut the cost of mining and earthworks.

Who is paid. Mining and building firms buy them, and the heavy-equipment makers who already supply those firms can copy the idea and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Android Safety Mechanism: A built-in cutoff that briefly disables an artificial human.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Android Safety Mechanism

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, Philip K. Dick · 1968

A built-in cutoff that briefly disables an artificial human.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cutoff that briefly stops an artificial human is a safety feature, valued only as part of the machine.

Who is paid. Firms that own such machines pay for it in the price, and any maker of the machines can fit it, so nothing more is kept for it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Andy: A slang word for a manufactured humanlike being.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Andy

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, Philip K. Dick · 1968

A slang word for a manufactured humanlike being.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2080s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. This is only a slang word, so it is judged as the thing it names, assumed to be a humanlike machine that could do most human work.

Who is paid. Firms buy them as labour, and since many could build such bodies once shown how, the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Disease Circuit: A diagnostic routine that makes a robot pet act sick when it needs repairs.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Disease Circuit

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, Philip K. Dick · 1968

A diagnostic routine that makes a robot pet act sick when it needs repairs.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Making a robot pet act sick when it needs repair is a small touch that keeps up the pretence of a living animal.

Who is paid. Owners pay for it within the price of the pet, and any maker of such pets could add it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electric Cat (Robot Cat): A robotic pet built to look and behave like an ordinary house cat.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electric Cat (Robot Cat)

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, Philip K. Dick · 1968

A robotic pet built to look and behave like an ordinary house cat.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An imitation animal is a comfort or a show of standing, not a need.

Who is paid. Households buy it much like a toy, and many workshops could make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electric Sheep: A mechanical farm animal dressed in real fleece that imitates a living beast's behaviour.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electric Sheep

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, Philip K. Dick · 1968

A mechanical farm animal dressed in real fleece that imitates a living beast's behaviour.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An imitation animal is a comfort or a show of standing, not a need.

Who is paid. Households buy it much like a toy, and many workshops could make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of False Animal Repairman: A trade devoted to servicing and fixing mechanical pet animals.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

False Animal Repairman

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, Philip K. Dick · 1968

A trade devoted to servicing and fixing mechanical pet animals.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Repairing mechanical pets is a small service trade that follows the pets.

Who is paid. Pet owners pay, and any trained repairer can set up shop, so nobody keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Nexus-7 Android: An improved model of manufactured humanlike being, succeeding an earlier line.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nexus-7 Android

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, Philip K. Dick · 1968

An improved model of manufactured humanlike being, succeeding an earlier line.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A newer model of manufactured humanlike being is assumed to be the artificial person of the stories, able to do most kinds of human work.

Who is paid. Firms buy them as labour, and since many could build such bodies once shown how, the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Oat-Tropic Circuit: A control routine that makes a robot pet approach food when it is held out.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Oat-Tropic Circuit

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, Philip K. Dick · 1968

A control routine that makes a robot pet approach food when it is held out.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A routine that makes a robot pet come to food is a touch of realism, valued only as part of the pet.

Who is paid. Owners pay for it within the price of the pet, and any maker of such pets could add it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Replicant: A manufactured being built to resemble and work like a human.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Replicant

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, Philip K. Dick · 1968

A manufactured being built to resemble and work like a human.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2080s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A manufactured being that works like a human could do most kinds of human work, which would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms buy them as labour, and since many could build such bodies once shown how, the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Self-Assembly: A robot that can rebuild itself after being broken into pieces.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Self-Assembly

Meccano, Hugo Correa · 1968

A robot that can rebuild itself after being broken into pieces.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Putting itself back together after being broken is a useful feature of a robot, not a product by itself.

Who is paid. Owners pay for it within the price of the robot, assumed here to be a working machine bought by firms, and any maker could include it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Automated Drone Probes: Robot explorers roughly the size of a person sent to scout unknown ground.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automated Drone Probes

The Man in the Maze, Robert Silverberg · 1969

Robot explorers roughly the size of a person sent to scout unknown ground.

built in the 1970s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Robot scouts sent ahead into unknown ground spare explorers some danger, a niche use.

Who is paid. Exploring agencies and armies pay, and the firms that already build their craft would supply the scouts.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Automatic City: A self-maintaining, self-defending city built to endure for ages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automatic City

The Man in the Maze, Robert Silverberg · 1969

A self-maintaining, self-defending city built to endure for ages.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A city that repairs and defends itself for ages would be a great public work, judged as built for one people only.

Who is paid. A government would pay for it, and the large builders that already win public works contracts would be paid to raise it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Construct: An artificial creature assembled from both living tissue and machine parts.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Construct

Retief, the Long-Awaited Master, Keith Laumer · 1969

An artificial creature assembled from both living tissue and machine parts.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. The description gives this creature of tissue and machine no job, so it is judged as a general working machine that would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms buy them as labour, and since many could build such bodies once shown how, the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Electrical Grandmother (Robot Grandma): A humanlike robot caretaker who looks after a family's children.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electrical Grandmother (Robot Grandma)

I Sing The Body Electric!, Ray Bradbury · 1969

A humanlike robot caretaker who looks after a family's children.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A robot that looks after children would be worth an industry of its own to families.

Who is paid. Families buy it, and since they are assumed to trust only known names with their children the established makers with strong brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mole Probe: Self-directed machines that tunnel through the ground to find passages beneath it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mole Probe

The Man in the Maze, Robert Silverberg · 1969

Self-directed machines that tunnel through the ground to find passages beneath it.

built in the 1960s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Machines that tunnel to find passages underground are a survey tool for a few trades.

Who is paid. Survey and exploring firms are assumed to buy them, and many makers could build such a burrower.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robotic Horse - Faithful Cybernetic Companion: A loyal mechanical steed built to look like a horse.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robotic Horse - Faithful Cybernetic Companion

The Warlock in Spite of Himself, Christopher Stasheff · 1969

A loyal mechanical steed built to look like a horse.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A mechanical horse that is loyal to its rider is a companion and a mount for those who want one, not a need.

Who is paid. Households buy it much like an imitation animal, and many workshops could make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Rubber Hoof: Soft hoof coverings that let a mechanical horse move quietly.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rubber Hoof

The Warlock in Spite of Himself, Christopher Stasheff · 1969

Soft hoof coverings that let a mechanical horse move quietly.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Soft covers that quiet a mechanical horse's steps are a small feature of the animal.

Who is paid. Owners pay for them within the price of the horse, and anyone could make them.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Synthetic Flesh: A lifelike skin covering for robots in place of hard plastic.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Synthetic Flesh

Super-Toys Last All Summer Long, Brian Aldiss · 1969

A lifelike skin covering for robots in place of hard plastic.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Lifelike flesh in place of hard plastic is a finish that makes a robot pleasant to look at and touch, a feature.

Who is paid. Robot makers pay for it as a part of the machines they sell to firms, and any of them could fit it, so nothing extra is kept.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Teddy: A clever, mobile robot toy bear that acts as a child's companion.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Teddy

Super-Toys Last All Summer Long, Brian Aldiss · 1969

A clever, mobile robot toy bear that acts as a child's companion.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A clever toy bear that keeps a child company is a toy, however well loved, not a need.

Who is paid. Parents buy it much like any toy, and many makers could build one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Medicine, biotech and longevity · 64
Illustration of Art-Derm: Synthetic skin applied to the body as a spray.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Art-Derm

Dr. Futurity, Philip K. Dick · 1960

Synthetic skin applied to the body as a spray.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Man-made skin helps people with burns and bad wounds, which is an important but narrow part of medicine.

Who is paid. Hospitals and clinics would buy it, and the firms that already supply wound dressings could all make it, so they collect a modest margin.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Bacteria-Destroying Radiation: A germ-killing ray that keeps an operating area free of microbes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bacteria-Destroying Radiation

Dr. Futurity, Philip K. Dick · 1960

A germ-killing ray that keeps an operating area free of microbes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping an operating area free of germs is useful, but other ways of doing it already exist.

Who is paid. Hospitals would buy it, and germ-killing lamps are simple things many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Cold-Pack: A way of keeping people chilled and preserved for an unlimited time.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cold-Pack

Dr. Futurity, Philip K. Dick · 1960

A way of keeping people chilled and preserved for an unlimited time.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Putting people safely into long dormancy would make very long journeys possible and give hospitals time to treat the gravely ill.

Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Dixon Pump: A stopgap machine that keeps blood flowing in place of the heart.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dixon Pump

Dr. Futurity, Philip K. Dick · 1960

A stopgap machine that keeps blood flowing in place of the heart.

built in the 1960s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A pump that stands in for the heart for a short while serves certain operations, a narrower use than a lasting replacement organ.

Who is paid. Hospitals would buy it, and several equipment makers can build such pumps, so established makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Transdermal Drug Capsule: A medicine pod that releases its dose through the skin when pressed against it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Transdermal Drug Capsule

Vulcan's Hammer, Philip K. Dick · 1960

A medicine pod that releases its dose through the skin when pressed against it.

built in 1979, 19 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A pod that passes its dose through the skin is a handy way of taking a medicine, not a new medicine.

Who is paid. Patients would buy it, and any drug firm can put its medicines in such a pod, so established drug makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Dromozoa: Fictional alien organisms on a prison world in the story, whose effects are exploited for medical harvesting.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dromozoa

A Planet Named Shayol, Cordwainer Smith · 1961

Fictional alien organisms on a prison world in the story, whose effects are exploited for medical harvesting.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a living creature in the story, not a technology anyone makes and sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Gobathian: An alien medical method that restores the whole body after catastrophic injury.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gobathian

Time is the Simplest Thing, Clifford Simak · 1961

An alien medical method that restores the whole body after catastrophic injury.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Regrowing lost or ruined tissue would change what hospitals can do for the badly injured.

Who is paid. I assumed hospitals buy and run it; once it worked other makers could copy it, so established medical equipment firms and hospitals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Alcodote: A drug that lets a person drink alcohol while staying sober.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Alcodote

Space Viking, H. Beam Piper · 1962

A drug that lets a person drink alcohol while staying sober.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Staying sober while drinking is a convenience for drinkers, not a need.

Who is paid. Drinkers would buy it for themselves, and a new drug is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Freezebox: A chamber holding travellers in long suspended sleep during interstellar trips.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Freezebox

Think Blue, Count Two, Cordwainer Smith · 1962

A chamber holding travellers in long suspended sleep during interstellar trips.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Putting people safely into long dormancy would make very long journeys possible and give hospitals time to treat the gravely ill.

Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Rabbit-Paper: A paper strip that instantly shows if someone is pregnant.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rabbit-Paper

The Game Players of Titan, Philip K. Dick · 1963

A paper strip that instantly shows if someone is pregnant.

built in the 1970s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An instant home answer on pregnancy is a real convenience, though each buyer needs it only now and then.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves in ordinary shops, and many firms can make such strips, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Artif-Org: A machine replacement for a human body organ.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Artif-Org

Cantata 140, Philip K. Dick · 1964

A machine replacement for a human body organ.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Replacement organs on demand would end the wait for donors and support an industry of their own.

Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and other firms could copy the design, so the established makers of medical implants and the hospitals that fit them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Skin Toning: Temporarily recolouring the skin with cosmetic treatments.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Skin Toning

The Star King, Jack Vance · 1964

Temporarily recolouring the skin with cosmetic treatments.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A passing change of skin colour is decoration, not need.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and many makers of cosmetics could offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Surgical Hand: A robotic hand designed for performing operations.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Surgical Hand

Clans of the Alphane Moon, Philip K. Dick · 1964

A robotic hand designed for performing operations.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine hand that operates would cut the cost and raise the precision of surgery.

Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and clinics buy it; several firms could build it once it worked, so established medical equipment makers and hospital groups collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Weary Deep-Sleep: An old-style long-duration suspended sleep.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Weary Deep-Sleep

Lies, Inc., Philip K. Dick · 1964

An old-style long-duration suspended sleep.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The description calls it old-style, but it still puts people into long dormancy, which would make very long journeys possible.

Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Autodoc: A robot doctor that diagnoses and operates without human help.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Autodoc

World of Ptavvs, Larry Niven · 1965

A robot doctor that diagnoses and operates without human help.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that diagnoses and operates without a doctor would bring skilled care to nearly everyone and remake medicine.

Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and clinics buy it; with the needed machine intelligence widely available several firms could build it, so established medical equipment makers and hospital groups collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Bubblehead: Someone who has had a therapy that enlarges the front of the brain.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bubblehead

The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965

Someone who has had a therapy that enlarges the front of the brain.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the therapy that enlarges the front of the brain, which I assumed sharpens the mind and so would be wanted by a great many people.

Who is paid. People would pay for it themselves, and I assumed other clinics could learn the therapy, so established clinics collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cardioplate: A fictional heart-regulating device the state uses to shorten lives as punishment.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cardioplate

Repent Harlequin' Said the Ticktockman, Harlan Ellison · 1965

A fictional heart-regulating device the state uses to shorten lives as punishment.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.

Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Implanted Steel Teeth: Artificial teeth anchored permanently in the jaw.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Implanted Steel Teeth

The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965

Artificial teeth anchored permanently in the jaw.

built since, date unclear

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Teeth fixed for good in the jaw are wanted by a great many people who lose their own.

Who is paid. Patients pay, and many firms make the parts and dentists everywhere can fit them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Interchangeable Hands: Swappable prosthetic hands built for particular tasks.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Interchangeable Hands

The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965

Swappable prosthetic hands built for particular tasks.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Hands made for particular tasks help people who have lost a hand, and they are a small share of everyone.

Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and several firms could build such limbs, so established makers of artificial limbs collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Luxvid Eyes (Jensen Wide-Angle): Implanted artificial eyes with fixed wide-angle vision.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Luxvid Eyes (Jensen Wide-Angle)

The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965

Implanted artificial eyes with fixed wide-angle vision.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Restoring sight with an implanted eye would be worth an industry.

Who is paid. Patients pay, with insurers behind them, and makers of medical implants collect since rivals could copy the eye.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Medical Mech: A robot that keeps injured people alive in emergencies.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Medical Mech

Warrior, Gordon R. Dickson · 1965

A robot that keeps injured people alive in emergencies.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A robot that keeps the injured alive would change emergency care.

Who is paid. Ambulance services and hospitals pay, and makers of medical equipment collect since the robot can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Rachag: A stimulant drink or drug with effects similar to caffeine.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rachag

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A stimulant drink or drug with effects similar to caffeine.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description promises nothing beyond what ordinary stimulant drinks already give, so it adds a convenience.

Who is paid. Drinkers would buy it for themselves, and stimulants of this kind are old and made by many, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Steel Teeth: Metal teeth fused to the jawbone.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Steel Teeth

The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965

Metal teeth fused to the jawbone.

built since, date unclear

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Teeth fixed for good in the jaw are wanted by a great many people who lose their own.

Who is paid. Patients pay, and many firms make the parts and dentists everywhere can fit them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Wakeshot: An injection that instantly rouses a sleeper to full alertness.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wakeshot

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

An injection that instantly rouses a sleeper to full alertness.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Rousing a sleeper at once is a narrow use beside staying awake for long stretches.

Who is paid. I assumed people buy it for themselves; stimulants of this kind are old chemistry many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cellphone Tranquilizing Spray: A phone that automatically dispenses a mild calming drug to its owner.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cellphone Tranquilizing Spray

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

A phone that automatically dispenses a mild calming drug to its owner.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A calming puff from a phone is a convenience added to something people already carry.

Who is paid. People would buy it as part of a phone, and any phone maker could add it, so established phone makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Chemelectric Afferent Nerve-Analogues: An engineered artificial skin that can sense touch.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chemelectric Afferent Nerve-Analogues

This Immortal, Roger Zelazny · 1966

An engineered artificial skin that can sense touch.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Skin that feels touch adds sensation to man-made skin, which stays a narrow part of medicine.

Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and makers of artificial limbs buy it; other materials firms could copy it, so established suppliers collect a modest margin.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Corpsicle: A frozen person stored in hope of future revival.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Corpsicle

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

A frozen person stored in hope of future revival.

built in the 1960s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the freezing and keeping of the dead, and the description promises only a hope of revival, which few would pay much for.

Who is paid. Families would pay for the keeping, and other firms could freeze and store bodies too, so established funeral firms with premises and trust collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Death-Reversal Equipment: Revival equipment that restores people killed in formal duels.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Death-Reversal Equipment

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

Revival equipment that restores people killed in formal duels.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Bringing back people who have just been killed would change emergency medicine.

Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and duelling grounds buy the equipment; other makers could copy it, so established medical equipment firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Decorative Implant: Under-skin ornaments the wearer can control by thought.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Decorative Implant

Babel-17, Samuel R. Delany · 1966

Under-skin ornaments the wearer can control by thought.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Ornaments under the skin are fashion.

Who is paid. Wearers would buy them, and many workshops could make and fit them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ebony Teeth: Artificial teeth coloured entirely black.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ebony Teeth

Now Wait For Last Year, Philip K. Dick · 1966

Artificial teeth coloured entirely black.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Black false teeth are a fashion, which sets them apart from plain replacement teeth.

Who is paid. Wearers would buy them, and any dental workshop can make them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Morgue (Recall Stage): A facility that stores frozen bodies and brings them back when needed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Morgue (Recall Stage)

Babel-17, Samuel R. Delany · 1966

A facility that stores frozen bodies and brings them back when needed.

built in the 1960s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Storing the frozen and bringing them back would be worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Families pay for the keeping, and firms that already run death care and cold storage collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Morphogen: A drug that reduces how much sleep a person needs, though not entirely.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Morphogen

Fantastic Voyage (Novel), Isaac Asimov · 1966

A drug that reduces how much sleep a person needs, though not entirely.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Needing less sleep would be wanted by most workers, though the drug only trims the need.

Who is paid. People pay for the drug, and the developer keeps the gain because a new medicine is protected from copying.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ro-Womb: An enclosing chamber that wraps a patient during mind-linked therapy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ro-Womb

The Dream Master (He Who Shapes), Roger Zelazny · 1966

An enclosing chamber that wraps a patient during mind-linked therapy.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A chamber for one kind of therapy serves a narrow group of patients.

Who is paid. I assumed clinics buy it; the chamber could be copied, so established makers of clinic equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Simicolor: Artificial dye for colouring the body.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Simicolor

This Immortal, Roger Zelazny · 1966

Artificial dye for colouring the body.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Colouring the body is decoration, not need.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and dyes are easy for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Specialized Prosthetic Arm: Interchangeable artificial arms, each suited to a different job.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Specialized Prosthetic Arm

The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966

Interchangeable artificial arms, each suited to a different job.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Arms made for particular jobs help people who have lost an arm, and they are a small share of everyone.

Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and several firms could build such limbs, so established makers of artificial limbs collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sprung-Samser Treatment: A therapy that lengthens human lifespan.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sprung-Samser Treatment

This Immortal, Roger Zelazny · 1966

A therapy that lengthens human lifespan.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A longer life meets about the deepest need there is, and nearly everyone alive would want it.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and I assumed it is protected like a new medicine, so its maker keeps much of the gain.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Surgical Homeostatic Unit: A self-directed robot that performs operations on patients.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Surgical Homeostatic Unit

Now Wait For Last Year, Philip K. Dick · 1966

A self-directed robot that performs operations on patients.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A robot that operates by itself would cut the cost of surgery, though it changes only that part of medicine.

Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and clinics buy it; several firms could build it once it worked, so established medical equipment makers and hospital groups collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of TW-55 Spy: Voluntary control over one's own facial features.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

TW-55 Spy

Babel-17, Samuel R. Delany · 1966

Voluntary control over one's own facial features.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the treatment that lets someone reshape their own face, which serves a narrow trade in spying.

Who is paid. I assumed spy services are the buyers, so a government pays; the description does not say the method is a secret, so the firms that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Transparent Platisplasm Cage: A clear artificial framework replacing a shoulder joint.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Transparent Platisplasm Cage

Babel-17, Samuel R. Delany · 1966

A clear artificial framework replacing a shoulder joint.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A replacement joint matters greatly to people who need it, but they are a small share of everyone.

Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and several firms could build such joints, so established makers of artificial limbs and joints collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Vision Implant: A light sensor implanted in the head that gives blind people partial sight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vision Implant

The Dream Master (He Who Shapes), Roger Zelazny · 1966

A light sensor implanted in the head that gives blind people partial sight.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Giving even partial sight back to blind people is worth an industry of its own, though most people would never need it.

Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and once the design was known other device makers could copy it, so established implant makers and eye clinics collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Vivatape: A dressing that closes wounds seamlessly and aids healing around skin implants.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vivatape

Babel-17, Samuel R. Delany · 1966

A dressing that closes wounds seamlessly and aids healing around skin implants.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A dressing that closes wounds cleanly helps hospitals and fitters of implants, which is a narrow part of medicine.

Who is paid. Hospitals and clinics would buy it, and the firms that already supply wound dressings could all make it, so they collect a modest margin.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Dolphin's Hands: Artificial manipulators that let dolphins handle objects.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dolphin's Hands

Handicap, Larry Niven · 1967

Artificial manipulators that let dolphins handle objects.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Hands for dolphins serve a very small group of users.

Who is paid. I assumed firms and researchers who work with dolphins buy them; simple gripping tools can be made by many, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Organlegging: A fictional black market in stolen human organs, central to the story's crime.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Organlegging

The Jigsaw Man, Larry Niven · 1967

A fictional black market in stolen human organs, central to the story's crime.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. The thing named is the theft of organs from unwilling people, a crime with victims and not a product, and replacement organs themselves are judged elsewhere in this category.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold that a buyer may have, unlike a street drug its users choose to buy, so no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Scientific Reincarnation: Moving a person's mind into a fresh, healthy body.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Scientific Reincarnation

Lord of Light, Roger Zelazny · 1967

Moving a person's mind into a fresh, healthy body.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A fresh healthy body for the same mind answers the deepest need there is, and nearly everyone would want it.

Who is paid. People would pay for themselves; I assumed it is a procedure other clinics could learn and not a protected drug, so established hospitals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sleepshop: A fictional facility for voluntary death in the story's society.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sleepshop

Logan's Run, William Nolan (w/G.C. Johnson · 1967

A fictional facility for voluntary death in the story's society.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The name is of a place, so the thing judged is the service it offers, which matters deeply to the few who seek it but is narrow.

Who is paid. The person or family would pay, and I assumed the law would let only a few approved providers offer it, so those providers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sub-microscopic Medical Robots: Microscopic machines that patrol the blood and destroy germs.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sub-microscopic Medical Robots

These Savage Futurians, Philip E. High · 1967

Microscopic machines that patrol the blood and destroy germs.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Machines in the blood that clear out germs would spare nearly everyone from infectious illness.

Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and unlike a single protected medicine a machine can be built another way by rivals, so established drug and device makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Artificially Grown Organs: Replacement body parts cultivated in a lab for transplant.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Artificially Grown Organs

A Gift From Earth, Larry Niven · 1968

Replacement body parts cultivated in a lab for transplant.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Organs grown to order would end the wait for donors and support an industry of their own.

Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and other firms could copy the design, so the established makers of medical implants and the hospitals that fit them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Cheekplate Container: A compartment on a support frame holding medicines for coping with strong gravity.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cheekplate Container

A Specter is Haunting Texas, Fritz Leiber · 1968

A compartment on a support frame holding medicines for coping with strong gravity.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A holder for pills on a support frame is a minor fitting.

Who is paid. Wearers would buy it, and anyone can make a small container, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Exoskeleton (Medical): A powered frame that helps very tall people raised in low gravity move under strong gravity.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Exoskeleton (Medical)

A Specter is Haunting Texas, Fritz Leiber · 1968

A powered frame that helps very tall people raised in low gravity move under strong gravity.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. As described it helps a small group of people raised in low gravity to move about.

Who is paid. Wearers would buy it, and several firms could build powered frames, so established makers of mobility aids collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hibernaculum: A compact pod that keeps a traveller in suspended sleep through long voyages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hibernaculum

2001: A Space Odyssey, Arthur C. Clarke · 1968

A compact pod that keeps a traveller in suspended sleep through long voyages.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Putting people safely into long dormancy would make very long journeys possible and give hospitals time to treat the gravely ill.

Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Artiforg: A manufactured replacement organ installed to keep the body working.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Artiforg

Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A manufactured replacement organ installed to keep the body working.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Replacement organs on demand would end the wait for donors and support an industry of their own.

Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and other firms could copy the design, so the established makers of medical implants and the hospitals that fit them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Automatic Vein Finder: A machine that locates blood vessels so needles can be placed without guesswork.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automatic Vein Finder

The Andromeda Strain, Michael Crichton · 1969

A machine that locates blood vessels so needles can be placed without guesswork.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Finding a vein without guesswork is a small convenience for nurses and patients.

Who is paid. Hospitals and clinics would buy it, and it is a simple device many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Axolotl Tank: A biological vessel used to regrow or remodel living tissue.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Axolotl Tank

Dune Messiah, Frank Herbert · 1969

A biological vessel used to regrow or remodel living tissue.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Regrowing lost or ruined tissue would change what hospitals can do for the badly injured.

Who is paid. I assumed hospitals buy and run it; once it worked other makers could copy it, so established medical equipment firms and hospitals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cold-Pac Bin: A coffin-like chamber that keeps the recently dead in a suspended, semi-conscious state.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cold-Pac Bin

Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A coffin-like chamber that keeps the recently dead in a suspended, semi-conscious state.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Letting families go on speaking with the newly dead is something a great many would pay for.

Who is paid. Families would pay for the keeping, and I assumed the chambers can be copied, so established funeral firms with premises and trust collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Crosswell Tape Worm: An engineered gut organism that lets people eat freely without putting on weight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Crosswell Tape Worm

Super-Toys Last All Summer Long, Brian Aldiss · 1969

An engineered gut organism that lets people eat freely without putting on weight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Eating freely without gaining weight is something a great many people would pay for.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and I assumed it is sold as a medicine and protected from copying for a while as new medicines are, so its maker keeps much of the gain.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Diagnostat: An automated medical machine that identifies and treats nearly any illness.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Diagnostat

The Man in the Maze, Robert Silverberg · 1969

An automated medical machine that identifies and treats nearly any illness.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that identifies and treats nearly any illness would bring skilled care to nearly everyone and remake medicine.

Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and clinics buy it; with the needed machine intelligence widely available several firms could build it, so established medical equipment makers and hospital groups collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Electronic Body Analyzer: An automated machine that examines and diagnoses patients without a physician.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electronic Body Analyzer

The Andromeda Strain, Michael Crichton · 1969

An automated machine that examines and diagnoses patients without a physician.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Diagnosing patients without a physician would cut the cost of medicine, though unlike a full robot doctor it does not treat.

Who is paid. I assumed hospitals and clinics buy it; with the needed machine intelligence widely available several firms could build it, so established medical equipment makers and hospital groups collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Face Dancer: People engineered to change their appearance and impersonate others.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Face Dancer

Dune Messiah, Frank Herbert · 1969

People engineered to change their appearance and impersonate others.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the engineering that lets a person change appearance and pass as someone else, which serves a narrow trade in spying.

Who is paid. I assumed spy services are the buyers, so a government pays; the description does not say the method is a secret, so the firms that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ghola: A person regrown from a dead individual's preserved cells.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ghola

Dune Messiah, Frank Herbert · 1969

A person regrown from a dead individual's preserved cells.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the regrowing of a dead person from kept cells, which many bereaved families would pay dearly for.

Who is paid. I assumed families pay and that other laboratories could learn the method once it worked, so established fertility and tissue laboratories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Moratorium: A facility that stores the dead cold while keeping their minds dimly active.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Moratorium

Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A facility that stores the dead cold while keeping their minds dimly active.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Keeping the dead within reach of their families would be worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Families pay for the keeping, and firms that already run death care and cold storage collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Physiognomic Template: A technique for reshaping one's facial features whenever desired.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Physiognomic Template

Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A technique for reshaping one's facial features whenever desired.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Changing your face at will would be worth a large part of the beauty trade.

Who is paid. People pay, and established cosmetic clinics and brands collect since the method can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tleilaxu Eyes (Metal Eyes): Surgically fitted mechanical eyes that replace damaged natural ones.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tleilaxu Eyes (Metal Eyes)

Dune Messiah, Frank Herbert · 1969

Surgically fitted mechanical eyes that replace damaged natural ones.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Giving sight back to blind people is worth an industry of its own, though most people would never need it.

Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and once the design was known other device makers could copy it, so established implant makers and eye clinics collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Tranquilizing Gum: Chewing gum laced with a calming drug.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tranquilizing Gum

Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969

Chewing gum laced with a calming drug.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A calming drug in chewing gum is an ordinary medicine in a handy form.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and calming drugs of this kind are old and many firms can make them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ultraflash: A light-pulse device that disinfects skin.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ultraflash

The Andromeda Strain, Michael Crichton · 1969

A light-pulse device that disinfects skin.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Cleaning skin of germs is useful, but other ways of doing it already exist.

Who is paid. Hospitals and laboratories would buy it, and germ-killing lamps are simple things many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Mind and neurotechnology · 40
Illustration of Betrization: A prenatal treatment that permanently suppresses violent impulses in people.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Betrization

Return from the Stars, Stanislaw Lem · 1961

A prenatal treatment that permanently suppresses violent impulses in people.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A people born without the urge to violence would be safe from each other, which changes how nearly everyone lives.

Who is paid. It only works if every child gets it, so the state would pay, and the medicine firms that already supply public health would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Emotional Register (ER): A small disc on the forehead that displays how its wearer is feeling.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Emotional Register (ER)

The Primal Urge, Brian Aldiss · 1961

A small disc on the forehead that displays how its wearer is feeling.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A disc that shows how the wearer feels is a novelty with some social use.

Who is paid. Unlike the instrument for clinics this is worn by ordinary people, who would buy it themselves, and it is easy to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mental Radio-Handicap: A fictional government-issued earpiece in the satire that disrupts the thinking of gifted citizens.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mental Radio-Handicap

Harrison Bergeron, Kurt Vonnegut, Jr. · 1961

A fictional government-issued earpiece in the satire that disrupts the thinking of gifted citizens.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.

Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mind Destroyer: A fictional mind-erasing procedure portrayed as a cruel tool of control.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mind Destroyer

A Planet Named Shayol, Cordwainer Smith · 1961

A fictional mind-erasing procedure portrayed as a cruel tool of control.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.

Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Pleasure Cap: A headpiece that stimulates the brain's reward centres directly.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pleasure Cap

A Planet Named Shayol, Cordwainer Smith · 1961

A headpiece that stimulates the brain's reward centres directly.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Direct stimulation of the reward centres would draw a large and steady demand, as strong drugs do.

Who is paid. Users would buy it for themselves, legal or not, and it is simple enough that many makers could supply it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Star Machine: A device that amplifies psychic minds so they can project awareness to faraway planets.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Star Machine

Time is the Simplest Thing, Clifford Simak · 1961

A device that amplifies psychic minds so they can project awareness to faraway planets.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Sending minds out to faraway planets would open exploration and trade in what they find.

Who is paid. I assume exploring firms would buy the machine; it could be copied, and it works only with gifted minds, so the gain goes to those rare operators as pay and not to any seller.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Perky Pat Layout: A miniature doll world that users mentally inhabit as an escape.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Perky Pat Layout

The Days of Perky Pat, Philip K. Dick · 1963

A miniature doll world that users mentally inhabit as an escape.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. I assume it is a toy set whose escape happens in the players' own heads, which makes it a pastime.

Who is paid. Players would buy the dolls and fittings themselves, and since any workshop could make them the toy sellers with known names and shops would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Shadow People: Imagined beings made real through a mind technique learned from aliens.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Shadow People

Way Station, Clifford Simak · 1963

Imagined beings made real through a mind technique learned from aliens.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Company called up from imagination would comfort the lonely, but as a learned technique it would reach only those able to master it.

Who is paid. The description names a technique that was learned, so I assume it can be taught; learners would pay teachers, and any teacher could pass it on, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sleep-Inducer: An electronic device that puts a person to sleep on command.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sleep-Inducer

Sunjammer, Arthur C. Clarke · 1963

An electronic device that puts a person to sleep on command.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Sleep on command would be worth an industry of its own to the many people who sleep badly.

Who is paid. People who sleep badly would buy it for themselves, and the gear is simple enough for many makers to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Talisman: An object that spreads calm and a sense of truth, but only when held by gifted users.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Talisman

Way Station, Clifford Simak · 1963

An object that spreads calm and a sense of truth, but only when held by gifted users.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Spreading calm and a sense of truth among many people would be worth a great deal to those who keep the peace.

Who is paid. Nobody could be charged for calm, so I assume a government pays; the object alone does nothing without a gifted holder, so no maker can corner it and the state's usual suppliers would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Empathy Box: Lets many people share one person's feelings at once.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Empathy Box

The Little Black Box, Philip K. Dick · 1964

Lets many people share one person's feelings at once.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Sharing one person's feelings with many others is a religious or social comfort for those who want it.

Who is paid. Believers would buy the box for themselves, and a simple box is easy to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of CAN-D: A fictional illegal drug used by colonists to escape into shared fantasy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

CAN-D

The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A fictional illegal drug used by colonists to escape into shared fantasy.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A drug that lets people share an escape into fantasy would sell like any strong vice; the story bans it, but I judged it as if sold.

Who is paid. Users would pay for it themselves, and a drug is easy for others to make once known, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Femfatalatron: A machine that cures a person of romantic obsession with someone.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Femfatalatron

The Cyberiad: Fables for the Cybernetic Age, Stanislaw Lem · 1965

A machine that cures a person of romantic obsession with someone.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cure for one unhappy love is a comfort for a few.

Who is paid. The lovesick would pay for it themselves, and once the machine worked others could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Hypno-Ligation: A technique for psychologically controlling a person.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hypno-Ligation

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A technique for psychologically controlling a person.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.

Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mentat: A person trained to perform computer-like reasoning.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mentat

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A person trained to perform computer-like reasoning.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A training that lets a person reason like a computer would be worth an industry of schools, though only for those able to finish it.

Who is paid. Students would pay for the training themselves, assuming it can be taught to those who apply, and any school could copy the method, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mnemonic Pulse: A signal in recordings that helps lodge knowledge in the learner's memory.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mnemonic Pulse

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A signal in recordings that helps lodge knowledge in the learner's memory.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A signal that makes lessons stick would speed up schooling, but the learner still sits through the recording at an ordinary pace.

Who is paid. Learners and families would buy the recordings themselves, and any publisher could add such a signal once it was known, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Pain Box: A fictional box that causes intense pain as a test of endurance in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pain Box

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A fictional box that causes intense pain as a test of endurance in the story.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.

Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sapho Juice: A drink that boosts the mental performance of human calculators.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sapho Juice

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A drink that boosts the mental performance of human calculators.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A drink that sharpens thinking would be wanted by everyone whose work is mental.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves as they buy any stimulant, and many makers could brew it once the recipe was known, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Semuta: A drug-and-music pairing that produces a deep altered state in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Semuta

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A drug-and-music pairing that produces a deep altered state in the story.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A drug and music that give a deep altered state would draw a large and steady demand, as strong drugs do.

Who is paid. Users would buy it for themselves, legal or not, and it is simple enough that many makers could supply it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Spice (Melange): A rare drug from a desert world, prized above all other resources in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spice (Melange)

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A rare drug from a desert world, prized above all other resources in the story.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. The story prizes it above every other resource, and judged on that promise most people who could afford it would want it.

Who is paid. I assume people buy it to take themselves and that it cannot be grown or made anywhere else, which the description implies but does not say; whoever holds the only world it comes from controls something others cannot get and keeps what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Voice: A trained vocal technique that compels obedience in listeners.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Voice

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A trained vocal technique that compels obedience in listeners.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A voice that compels obedience works only on those within hearing, so it controls a few people at a time.

Who is paid. I assume a state would pay to train its agents in it, and though it is a technique its usual suppliers and schools would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cyborg Pilot: A human mind wired directly into a machine to control it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cyborg Pilot

The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966

A human mind wired directly into a machine to control it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. This names a person, but the link behind it, a mind wired into a machine, is a better set of controls where hand controls already do the job.

Who is paid. Firms that run the machines would buy it, and once one maker had the link others could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Discorporaphone: A device for talking with minds of the dead stored electronically.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Discorporaphone

Babel-17, Samuel R. Delany · 1966

A device for talking with minds of the dead stored electronically.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Talking with the stored minds of the dead is precious to the bereaved, but the worth lies in storing the mind, and this is only the telephone to it.

Who is paid. Families would pay, and I assumed the stored minds already exist, so the talking device alone is easy to copy and no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Dream Console

The Dream Master (He Who Shapes), Roger Zelazny · 1966

Lets a therapist shape and enter a patient's dreams.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A therapist who can enter and shape dreams could treat troubles of the mind that talk alone does not reach.

Who is paid. Clinics and therapists would buy the machine, and the makers of medical equipment who already sell to them could copy it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Erased Memory: A procedure that removes chosen memories from someone's mind.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Erased Memory

We Can Remember It For You Wholesale, Philip K. Dick · 1966

A procedure that removes chosen memories from someone's mind.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Removing chosen memories would treat trauma and grief for a great many people, worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Patients would pay, the method could be copied once known, and the clinics and medicine firms already trusted with such care would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Extra-Factual Memory: Implanted memories of events the person never actually lived.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Extra-Factual Memory

We Can Remember It For You Wholesale, Philip K. Dick · 1966

Implanted memories of events the person never actually lived.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Memories of a holiday or adventure never taken would stand in for travel and film at far lower cost.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay for each memory, the method could be copied, and the leisure firms that own the stories and the names people know would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Telepathic Transmitter (Telep-transmitter): Sends a user's thoughts to others through living tissue from another world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Telepathic Transmitter (Telep-transmitter)

We Can Remember It For You Wholesale, Philip K. Dick · 1966

Sends a user's thoughts to others through living tissue from another world.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Telephones already carry words between people, so sending thoughts instead is a convenience.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and once it existed many makers could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tru-Mem Systems: Ordinary natural recall of one's own real experiences.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tru-Mem Systems

We Can Remember It For You Wholesale, Philip K. Dick · 1966

Ordinary natural recall of one's own real experiences.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is ordinary natural memory, which everyone already has and nobody sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is made or sold here, so there is no buyer and no seller.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Fornixation: Electric stimulation of the brain's pleasure circuits for recreation.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fornixation

Riders of the Purple Wage, Philip Jose Farmer · 1967

Electric stimulation of the brain's pleasure circuits for recreation.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Pleasure on demand from a current in the brain would draw as many buyers as any vice, harmful as the story shows it to be.

Who is paid. Users would pay for it themselves, and a wire and a small current are simple to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cyborg Collar: A fictional neck device used to compel a person's behaviour during working hours.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cyborg Collar

A Specter is Haunting Texas, Fritz Leiber · 1968

A fictional neck device used to compel a person's behaviour during working hours.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.

Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mood Organ: A household device that lets users choose the emotions they want to feel.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mood Organ

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, Philip K. Dick · 1968

A household device that lets users choose the emotions they want to feel.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Choosing how to feel at home would stand in for much of what people now seek from drink, pills and therapy.

Who is paid. Households would buy it as a home appliance, and many makers could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Penfield Wave Transmitter: A device that beams energy into the brain so a user can select an emotional state.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Penfield Wave Transmitter

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, Philip K. Dick · 1968

A device that beams energy into the brain so a user can select an emotional state.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Choosing how to feel would stand in for much of what people now seek from drink, pills and therapy.

Who is paid. Households would buy it as a home appliance, and many makers could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Artificial Telepathy: Machines that decode a person's thoughts into spoken words others can receive.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Artificial Telepathy

We All Died At Breakaway Station, Richard Meredith · 1969

Machines that decode a person's thoughts into spoken words others can receive.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Passing thoughts to others by machine is a new way to talk, and speech and telephones already do the job for nearly everyone.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would buy it for themselves, and once one maker could decode thought others could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Droud: A fictional adapter for a brain pleasure implant, portrayed as a tool of addiction.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Droud

Death by Ecstasy, Larry Niven · 1969

A fictional adapter for a brain pleasure implant, portrayed as a tool of addiction.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. This is the plug-in part of the pleasure implant, and I judged it with the implant: pleasure on demand would draw as many buyers as any vice, harmful as the story shows it to be.

Who is paid. Users would pay for it themselves, and a wire and a small current are simple to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ecstasy Plug: A fictional brain implant for direct pleasure stimulation, portrayed as a route to addiction.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ecstasy Plug

Death by Ecstasy, Larry Niven · 1969

A fictional brain implant for direct pleasure stimulation, portrayed as a route to addiction.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Pleasure on demand from a current in the brain would draw as many buyers as any vice, harmful as the story shows it to be.

Who is paid. Users would pay for it themselves, and a wire and a small current are simple to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mnemonic Flutter System (Pulse-Sychronizer): A device that writes the contents of a book directly into a reader's memory.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mnemonic Flutter System (Pulse-Sychronizer)

Dune Messiah, Frank Herbert · 1969

A device that writes the contents of a book directly into a reader's memory.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Writing a book straight into memory would replace years of study for most people.

Who is paid. Learners and families would pay for it themselves, and once a first firm had built it others could copy it and many could supply the lessons, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Protophason Amplifier: Equipment that picks up and boosts faint brain signals from people kept in cold storage.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Protophason Amplifier

Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969

Equipment that picks up and boosts faint brain signals from people kept in cold storage.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Talking with relatives kept in cold storage is a comfort for the bereaved and little more.

Who is paid. Families would pay to hear from their own kin, and the amplifier could be copied by many makers, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Psycho-Lease Encephalic Gadget: A brain device that makes a staged scene feel utterly real to the viewer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Psycho-Lease Encephalic Gadget

Galactic Pot-Healer, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A brain device that makes a staged scene feel utterly real to the viewer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Making a staged scene feel wholly real would be an entertainment industry of its own.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and since the method could be copied the owners of the stories, stars and channels people already follow would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Remote-Control Slavery: A fictional means of remotely dominating other creatures' minds, shown as coercion.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Remote-Control Slavery

The Man in the Maze, Robert Silverberg · 1969

A fictional means of remotely dominating other creatures' minds, shown as coercion.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.

Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Teep Rod: A handheld tool that reads a person's thoughts.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Teep Rod

Galactic Pot-Healer, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A handheld tool that reads a person's thoughts.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A tool that reads the thoughts of whoever it is pointed at would change how crimes are solved and secrets are kept.

Who is paid. The holder reads another person, so I judged it as a probe and assumed police and spy services are the main buyers, though private buyers would want it too; a handheld tool could be copied, so the firms that already supply those services would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Transport and mobility · 29
Illustration of Dust-Cruiser: A larger lunar vessel that carries passengers across crater basins filled with fine dust.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dust-Cruiser

A Fall of Moondust, Arthur C. Clarke · 1961

A larger lunar vessel that carries passengers across crater basins filled with fine dust.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A vehicle for crossing lunar dust serves only the few people who are on the Moon.

Who is paid. Operators of lunar bases and tours buy it, and any builder of space vehicles could make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Dust-Ski: A light vehicle that skims quickly over loose powdery ground on the Moon.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dust-Ski

A Fall of Moondust, Arthur C. Clarke · 1961

A light vehicle that skims quickly over loose powdery ground on the Moon.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A vehicle for crossing lunar dust serves only the few people who are on the Moon.

Who is paid. Operators of lunar bases and tours buy it, and any builder of space vehicles could make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Parastatics: A protective field that keeps vehicle occupants from being hurt in collisions.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Parastatics

Return from the Stars, Stanislaw Lem · 1961

A protective field that keeps vehicle occupants from being hurt in collisions.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A field that keeps everyone in a vehicle unhurt in any collision does far more than the cushions and bags beside it, which only soften a crash, and ending injury on the roads would change the costs of motoring, insurance and emergency care.

Who is paid. Owners pay for it through the price of the vehicle, and I assume that once the field is shown to work other firms could build it, so the established vehicle makers fit it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Transo: Instant transfer of goods and people between distant sites, underpinning a chain of trading outposts.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Transo

Time is the Simplest Thing, Clifford Simak · 1961

Instant transfer of goods and people between distant sites, underpinning a chain of trading outposts.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Sending things instantly across any distance would replace most shipping and haulage, which changes how most people are supplied and how most firms work; this one sends people too.

Who is paid. I assume carriers and traders pay to send people and goods through, and once a firm had built it others could, so the carriers and builders that already own the depots, the ports and the customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Alcohol-Sensing System: A car system that detects a drunk driver and takes over driving.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Alcohol-Sensing System

The Game Players of Titan, Philip K. Dick · 1963

A car system that detects a drunk driver and takes over driving.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It prevents some crashes, but it is a safety feature in a car rather than something people seek out.

Who is paid. Drivers pay for it with the car, often because the law requires it, and the car makers and their parts suppliers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Way Station: A relay post for travellers moving instantly between stars.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Way Station

Way Station, Clifford Simak · 1963

A relay post for travellers moving instantly between stars.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Cheap instant passage between worlds would open new land and trade to a large share of humanity; I assume the relay post holds the machine that passes travellers on, so it is judged as the gate and not as a building.

Who is paid. I assume carriers and traders pay to send people and goods through, and once a gate is built others could build more, so the large builders and carriers that already own the ports and the customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Way Station Materializer: Recreates travellers at distant stars from transmitted descriptions of their bodies.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Way Station Materializer

Way Station, Clifford Simak · 1963

Recreates travellers at distant stars from transmitted descriptions of their bodies.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Cheap instant passage between worlds would open new land and trade to a large share of humanity.

Who is paid. I assume carriers and traders pay to send people and goods through, and once a gate is built others could build more, so the large builders and carriers that already own the ports and the customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Auto Course-Finding Pilot: An autopilot that plans its own route as well as flying the craft.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Auto Course-Finding Pilot

Clans of the Alphane Moon, Philip K. Dick · 1964

An autopilot that plans its own route as well as flying the craft.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A system that flies the aircraft changes the crew costs and the safety of the whole airline industry.

Who is paid. Airlines and aircraft builders buy it, and the firms already trusted to supply flight controls collect because a newcomer cannot easily win safety approval.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Jet-Powered Aquaplane: A very fast jet-driven boat that skims the water.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Jet-Powered Aquaplane

The Star King, Jack Vance · 1964

A very fast jet-driven boat that skims the water.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A very fast boat that skims the water is a thrill for those who can afford it.

Who is paid. Wealthy boat owners buy it, and many boatyards can build a fast boat, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Platform Flyer: A small aircraft for low-altitude hops.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Platform Flyer

The Star King, Jack Vance · 1964

A small aircraft for low-altitude hops.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description limits it to low hops, so it is a small craft for short trips.

Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Single Seat Scooter: A rentable one-wheeled personal vehicle.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Single Seat Scooter

The Star King, Jack Vance · 1964

A rentable one-wheeled personal vehicle.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A narrow self-balancing vehicle is a handy way round town but does little that a small car or motorbike does not.

Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the scooters for hire buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Surface Slider: A small light craft for short surface trips.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Surface Slider

The Star King, Jack Vance · 1964

A small light craft for short surface trips.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description limits it to short surface trips, so it is a small runabout.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and many workshops could build it once it is shown to work, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Autonomic Cab: A driverless taxi.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Autonomic Cab

The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A driverless taxi.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A cab with no driver takes the largest cost out of every taxi ride, which is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the cab buys it and charges riders, and since several firms could build it, the makers that already build and service such craft collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Carryall: A heavy-lift flying wing that ferries mining vehicles.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Carryall

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A heavy-lift flying wing that ferries mining vehicles.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A flying wing that lifts whole mining machines saves time at remote sites, which matters to a single trade.

Who is paid. Mining firms buy it, and the builders of heavy aircraft that already serve them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ornithopter: An aircraft that flies by flapping its wings like a bird.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ornithopter

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

An aircraft that flies by flapping its wings like a bird.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Flapping wings give an aircraft more agile flight, but it does the work aircraft and rotor craft already do.

Who is paid. Airlines and other operators pay for it through the aircraft, and the established aircraft builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Paracompass: A navigation compass that works from local magnetic irregularities.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Paracompass

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A navigation compass that works from local magnetic irregularities.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A compass that reads local magnetic quirks is a backup way to find position.

Who is paid. Ship and aircraft operators buy it, and any instrument maker could build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Thopter: Any aircraft that flies by beating its wings.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Thopter

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

Any aircraft that flies by beating its wings.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Flapping wings give an aircraft more agile flight, but it does the work aircraft and rotor craft already do.

Who is paid. Airlines and other operators pay for it through the aircraft, and the established aircraft builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Auto-Driven Auto (Spinner): A car that drives itself to a chosen location.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Auto-Driven Auto (Spinner)

The Dream Master (He Who Shapes), Roger Zelazny · 1966

A car that drives itself to a chosen location.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A car that needs no driver gives back the hours spent at the wheel and opens car travel to people who cannot drive, which is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Owners buy it, and since several firms can build a driving system once it is shown to work, the car makers that already own factories, dealers and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Auto-Navigation: In-car route guidance shown on a dashboard screen.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Auto-Navigation

The Dream Master (He Who Shapes), Roger Zelazny · 1966

In-car route guidance shown on a dashboard screen.

built in the 1990s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Route guidance in the car saves wrong turns and time, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. Drivers pay for it with the car, and the car makers and the firms that already hold maps of every road collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Radson Skimmer: A small low-flying craft for a few passengers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Radson Skimmer

This Immortal, Roger Zelazny · 1966

A small low-flying craft for a few passengers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A small craft that flies a few people low over the roads would be an industry of its own, though it mostly replaces trips people already make by car; I assume it is privately owned.

Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sand-Yacht (Land Schooner): A wheeled land vessel driven by the wind in its sails.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sand-Yacht (Land Schooner)

Cry Hope, Cry Fury!, J.G. Ballard · 1966

A wheeled land vessel driven by the wind in its sails.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A wheeled craft driven by sail is a sport and a way across a few open plains.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and many workshops could build it once it is shown to work, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Lift Chair: A seat carried aloft by large birds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lift Chair

The Last Castle, Jack Vance · 1967

A seat carried aloft by large birds.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A seat lifted by trained birds is a novelty ride for a few people.

Who is paid. Riders pay for it, and anyone who can train the birds could offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Power-Wagon: A wagon pulled by an alien beast that runs on sugary syrup.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Power-Wagon

The Last Castle, Jack Vance · 1967

A wagon pulled by an alien beast that runs on sugary syrup.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A wagon drawn by a beast does what a truck or tractor does, so it is a curiosity.

Who is paid. I assume carters buy it, and anyone who can breed and feed the beast could sell it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Skycycle: A motorcycle-style personal flying vehicle.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Skycycle

Handicap, Larry Niven · 1967

A motorcycle-style personal flying vehicle.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Free personal flight with no limit stated would be an industry of its own, replacing many trips now made by car.

Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Flight Stick: A minimal one-person flying craft reduced to its essentials.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flight Stick

The Flight of the Horse, Larry Niven · 1969

A minimal one-person flying craft reduced to its essentials.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A rig that lets a person fly wherever they please, working as promised, would be an industry of its own as the motorbike is; the description gives no limit on range or weather, so I assume there is no such limit.

Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gyrocar (Gyro): A single-wheeled car kept upright by a spinning gyroscope.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gyrocar (Gyro)

The Ring, Piers Anthony (w/R. Margroff · 1969

A single-wheeled car kept upright by a spinning gyroscope.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Balancing on fewer wheels makes a vehicle narrower but does nothing an ordinary car cannot already do.

Who is paid. Drivers buy it, and a gyroscope is easy to copy, so the car makers that already own the factories and dealers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Jumpdoor: A gateway into a passage for instant travel between distant stars.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Jumpdoor

Whipping Star, Frank Herbert · 1969

A gateway into a passage for instant travel between distant stars.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. I assume passage through the gate is cheap and open to all as in the like entries, and instant passage between worlds would open new land and trade to a large share of humanity.

Who is paid. I assume carriers and traders pay to send people and goods through, and once a gate is built others could build more, so the large builders and carriers that already own the ports and the customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Rapid-Transit Hover Blimp: A floating airship used as mass transit for commuters.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rapid-Transit Hover Blimp

Galactic Pot-Healer, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A floating airship used as mass transit for commuters.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lighter-than-air craft is slow and carries little beside aircraft and trains, so it stays a niche; this one carries commuters.

Who is paid. The carrier or fleet operator that runs the airship line buys it and charges riders, and any workshop could build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Vortal Tube: A passage of energy allowing instant travel across the galaxy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vortal Tube

Whipping Star, Frank Herbert · 1969

A passage of energy allowing instant travel across the galaxy.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Cheap instant passage between worlds would open new land and trade to a large share of humanity.

Who is paid. I assume carriers and traders pay to send people and goods through, and once a gate is built others could build more, so the large builders and carriers that already own the ports and the customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Energy and power · 5
Illustration of Chlorophane: A synthetic light-harvesting pigment that captures sunlight far better than natural plant pigment.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chlorophane

The Planet Strappers, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1961

A synthetic light-harvesting pigment that captures sunlight far better than natural plant pigment.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A pigment that catches sunlight far better than plants would cut what solar power and grown fuel cost.

Who is paid. Panel makers and growers buy it, and the inventor of a new material can keep the recipe protected for a time.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Solar Updraft Tower: Makes electricity from warm air rising through a very tall chimney.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solar Updraft Tower

Shortstack, Leigh and Walt Richmond · 1964

Makes electricity from warm air rising through a very tall chimney.

built in the 1980s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tall chimney that makes power from rising warm air is one more way to make electricity, and the real thing turned out small.

Who is paid. Power companies buy the plant, and the design is ordinary building work that many can copy so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Glowglobe: A hovering light sphere powered by an organic source.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Glowglobe

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A hovering light sphere powered by an organic source.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Judged as if it worked, a lamp that floats where it is wanted is a nicer light, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. People buy them for homes, and in the story they are everyday goods that many makers supply, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Fusion Sunlight Tube: A fusion-powered light running along the axis of a spinning space habitat.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fusion Sunlight Tube

At the Bottom of a Hole, Larry Niven · 1966

A fusion-powered light running along the axis of a spinning space habitat.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sun-like lamp for one spinning space habitat is a niche, however vital to those inside.

Who is paid. Whoever funds the habitat pays, assumed here to be a government, and the firms that already build such plants collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Stillsuit Desert Boots: Boots that capture energy from walking to run other gear.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stillsuit Desert Boots

Dune Messiah, Frank Herbert · 1969

Boots that capture energy from walking to run other gear.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Boots that power small gear from walking save carrying batteries, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. People buy them to wear, and any boot maker can add the part so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Materials, manufacturing and construction · 35
Illustration of Single Sheet Molecule: Paper made of one giant molecule so each document is unique and cannot be forged.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Single Sheet Molecule

Dorsai!, Gordon R. Dickson · 1960

Paper made of one giant molecule so each document is unique and cannot be forged.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Paper that cannot be forged is useful for money, deeds and certificates, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Banks, firms and offices buy it, and I assumed more than one maker could learn the method, so established security printers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Plexiskin: A synthetic covering worn over the face to pass as someone else.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plexiskin

A Spaceship Named McGuire, Gordon Randall Garrett · 1961

A synthetic covering worn over the face to pass as someone else.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A false face for passing as someone else serves actors and spies, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Stage and film firms buy it, assuming open sale and that spy services are a minor buyer, and many firms could make such a skin.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sealingsilk: A clear, bendable fabric that stays airtight even when exposed to the vacuum of space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sealingsilk

The Beat Cluster, Fritz Leiber · 1961

A clear, bendable fabric that stays airtight even when exposed to the vacuum of space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A clear airtight fabric for vacuum serves space suits and shelters, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it, and the cloth can be copied, so makers of protective gear with customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spray-On Clothing: Garments applied to the body straight from an aerosol can.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spray-On Clothing

Return from the Stars, Stanislaw Lem · 1961

Garments applied to the body straight from an aerosol can.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Clothes sprayed straight onto the body would fit anyone at once and upset the garment trade; the real thing so far is a novelty, and I judged the promise.

Who is paid. People buy the cans, and the spray can be matched, so clothing brands with shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Stellene: A strong see-through material for building domes or even entire spacecraft.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stellene

The Planet Strappers, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1961

A strong see-through material for building domes or even entire spacecraft.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A strong see-through material fit for domes and whole spacecraft would change how windows, vehicles and buildings are made.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Plastex: A plaster-rubber blend that lets a home's structure change shape.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plastex

The Thousand Dreams of Stellavista, J.G. Ballard · 1962

A plaster-rubber blend that lets a home's structure change shape.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Walls that let a home change shape are a pleasant extra, not a change in the cost of housing.

Who is paid. Home owners pay for it, assuming they choose it, and a blend is easy to copy, so builders and building-supply firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Self-Healing Building: Structural walls that repair their own cracks when stressed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Self-Healing Building

The Thousand Dreams of Stellavista, J.G. Ballard · 1962

Structural walls that repair their own cracks when stressed.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Walls that mend their own cracks would cut the upkeep and risk of buildings and bridges.

Who is paid. Developers and owners buy it, and once the method is known the big builders and materials firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ice-Nine: A fictional crystal form of water that never melts, central to the novel's catastrophe.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ice-Nine

Cat's Cradle, Kurt Vonnegut, Jr. · 1963

A fictional crystal form of water that never melts, central to the novel's catastrophe.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A crystal that freezes all the water it touches is a hazard to the whole world, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Transparent, Frictionless Coating: A clear coating that is perfectly slick and cannot be penetrated.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Transparent, Frictionless Coating

Way Station, Clifford Simak · 1963

A clear coating that is perfectly slick and cannot be penetrated.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A clear coating that is perfectly slick and cannot be pierced would cut wear and protect surfaces across industry, which is more than an ordinary finish.

Who is paid. Manufacturers buy it, and being impenetrable does not stop a second maker, so the big materials firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Chalf (Quick-Scribe Powder): A self-arranging powder that forms written symbols on its own.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chalf (Quick-Scribe Powder)

The Tactful Saboteur, Frank Herbert · 1964

A self-arranging powder that forms written symbols on its own.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A powder that forms writing by itself is a neat way to take notes, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. People buy it as they buy pens and paper, and once the powder is understood many could make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Chalf-Memory Stick: A stick that arranges a special powder into readable text.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chalf-Memory Stick

The Tactful Saboteur, Frank Herbert · 1964

A stick that arranges a special powder into readable text.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A stick that sets the powder into text is the same note-taking convenience as the powder itself.

Who is paid. People buy it as they buy pens and paper, and once the powder is understood many could make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Flexible Stem: A long pliable tube that rapidly lengthens and shortens.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flexible Stem

The Killing Machine, Jack Vance · 1964

A long pliable tube that rapidly lengthens and shortens.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tube that quickly lengthens and shortens is a handy part for tools and machines.

Who is paid. Makers of tools and machines buy it, and many firms can make such a part.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Antithermal Shield: A protective material shielding people from extreme planetary heat.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Antithermal Shield

The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A protective material shielding people from extreme planetary heat.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Protection from extreme heat matters to the few who must work in such places; I assumed it is gear for those workers and not something everyone on a hot world must own.

Who is paid. Employers of people in hot places buy it, and makers of safety gear who already supply them can copy and sell it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cutteray: A laser tool for cutting, including in mining gear.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cutteray

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A laser tool for cutting, including in mining gear.

built in the 1960s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A beam that cuts is a better tool for mines and workshops, not a new industry.

Who is paid. Mines and workshops buy it, and many toolmakers can build such a cutter, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Dekon Type DCQ: A foam for decontaminating people or equipment.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dekon Type DCQ

Subspace Explorers, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1965

A foam for decontaminating people or equipment.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cleansing foam matters after spills and accidents, which is a niche supply.

Who is paid. Plants, ships and hospitals buy it, and many chemical firms can make such a foam.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Fanmetal: A strong metal used in structures that unfold by fanning out.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fanmetal

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A strong metal used in structures that unfold by fanning out.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A strong metal for structures that fold and unfold would cut the cost of shelters and vehicles that must travel light.

Who is paid. Vehicle and building firms buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established metal makers with furnaces and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Krimskell Fiber: A rope fibre whose knots grip harder the more it is pulled.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Krimskell Fiber

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A rope fibre whose knots grip harder the more it is pulled.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Unlike the very strong threads, this is only a rope whose knots hold tighter, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. Sailors, climbers and haulers buy it, and many rope makers could copy such a fibre.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Leybyrdite: An exceptionally hard crystalline metal.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Leybyrdite

Subspace Explorers, E.E. 'Doc' Smith · 1965

An exceptionally hard crystalline metal.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An exceptionally hard metal would cut wear and replacement costs in tools, machines and structures.

Who is paid. Makers of tools and machines buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established metal makers with furnaces and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Oil Lens: An optical element made of oil held in shape by a force field.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Oil Lens

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

An optical element made of oil held in shape by a force field.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lens of oil held by a field is a specialist part for instruments.

Who is paid. Instrument makers buy it, and once such fields exist any optics firm could make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Optical-Effect Suit: A garment that renders the wearer invisible.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Optical-Effect Suit

A Plague of Demons, Keith Laumer · 1965

A garment that renders the wearer invisible.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A suit that makes its wearer invisible would be prized by every army and spy service.

Who is paid. Governments pay, assuming the public may not buy it, and the firms that already hold military supply contracts make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Plasteel: A reinforced steel far tougher than the ordinary kind.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plasteel

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A reinforced steel far tougher than the ordinary kind.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A steel far tougher than the ordinary kind would change the cost of structures, vehicles and machines.

Who is paid. Builders and manufacturers buy it, and a metal recipe gets copied, so the established steel makers with furnaces and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Water Repellent Surface: A coating that sheds water completely.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Water Repellent Surface

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A coating that sheds water completely.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A coating that sheds water completely is a handy finish for cloth, glass and hulls.

Who is paid. Makers of such goods buy it, and many chemical firms can match a coating, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Flexible Armor Suit: A flexible pressure suit that stiffens into armour when struck.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flexible Armor Suit

Neutron Star, Larry Niven · 1966

A flexible pressure suit that stiffens into armour when struck.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A suit that hardens when struck protects those who face blows or debris, which is a niche.

Who is paid. I assumed armies, police and space crews are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold their equipment contracts would make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gauzy: An ultralight tent made from fabric only a single molecule thick.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gauzy

This Immortal, Roger Zelazny · 1966

An ultralight tent made from fabric only a single molecule thick.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tent that weighs almost nothing is a pleasure for campers and travellers.

Who is paid. Campers buy it, and once the fabric can be copied the outdoor brands and shops they already use collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of General Products Hull: An almost indestructible spaceship shell sold in standard sizes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

General Products Hull

Neutron Star, Larry Niven · 1966

An almost indestructible spaceship shell sold in standard sizes.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A ship's shell that almost nothing can break would be worth an industry to anyone who travels or hauls in space.

Who is paid. Ship owners buy it, and though the story has a single firm selling it, nothing in the description stops a second maker, since a shell being hard to cut open and study does not keep others from learning to make it; I assumed the method gets out, so established shipbuilders and materials firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Martian Print Amoeba: An alien organism that copies manufactured goods.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Martian Print Amoeba

Now Wait For Last Year, Philip K. Dick · 1966

An alien organism that copies manufactured goods.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A creature that copies any manufactured thing would make most goods nearly free, assuming the copies are sound.

Who is paid. Assuming people can keep one as they would a machine, they buy it, and a creature that breeds cannot be held by any one seller.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Photosensitive Pigment: A coating that remains empty until light records a scene on it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Photosensitive Pigment

Cry Hope, Cry Fury!, J.G. Ballard · 1966

A coating that remains empty until light records a scene on it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A coating that records a scene is a way of taking pictures, judged here as a paint and not as the whole camera trade.

Who is paid. Printers and picture makers buy it, and many chemical firms can match a coating, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tensile Memory Polarized Matter: A material that can switch between several preset shapes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tensile Memory Polarized Matter

Babel-17, Samuel R. Delany · 1966

A material that can switch between several preset shapes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A material that switches between preset shapes lets one part or tool do the work of many across several industries.

Who is paid. Makers of tools, vehicles and goods buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Architectural Coral: Buildings grown into planned shapes by tiny reef-building organisms.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Architectural Coral

A Gift From Earth, Larry Niven · 1968

Buildings grown into planned shapes by tiny reef-building organisms.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Buildings that grow themselves into shape would sharply cut the cost of putting up homes.

Who is paid. People buy it as a home, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the growers, builders and landowners that already hold stock, sites and the trade of housing collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mining Worm (Organic): A bioengineered worm bred to dig through rock and extract ore.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mining Worm (Organic)

A Gift From Earth, Larry Niven · 1968

A bioengineered worm bred to dig through rock and extract ore.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A creature that digs rock and brings out ore would cut the cost of mining.

Who is paid. Mining firms buy it, and a living tool breeds and spreads, so the miners and suppliers already in the trade collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sinclair Molecule Chain: An ultra-thin single-strand fibre prized for extraordinary tensile strength.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sinclair Molecule Chain

A Gift From Earth, Larry Niven · 1968

An ultra-thin single-strand fibre prized for extraordinary tensile strength.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A thread of extraordinary pulling strength would change the cost of cables, bridges and lifting things to space.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Slow Glass (Scenedow): A pane that holds light for years, so scenes emerge long after they happened.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Slow Glass (Scenedow)

Light of Other Days, Bob Shaw · 1968

A pane that holds light for years, so scenes emerge long after they happened.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A window that shows a lovely scene from long ago is a luxury for homes and offices.

Who is paid. People buy panes for their homes, and the glass must sit for years in front of a fine view, so those who own such land collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Device Replication: Making equipment on demand from stored patterns to save cargo room aboard ships.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Device Replication

The Man in the Maze, Robert Silverberg · 1969

Making equipment on demand from stored patterns to save cargo room aboard ships.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. It is the same kind of machine as the make-anything machines, but it is described only as making ship's equipment on demand to save cargo room, which changes supply costs for fleets and remote sites.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy the machines because the description puts them aboard ships, and as with the other make-anything machines a machine that makes equipment from stored patterns can make its own parts and the patterns can be passed around, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Memory Plastic: A plastic that reshapes itself into stored forms when told to.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Memory Plastic

Death by Ecstasy, Larry Niven · 1969

A plastic that reshapes itself into stored forms when told to.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A plastic that takes stored shapes on command lets one part or tool do the work of many across several industries.

Who is paid. Makers of tools, vehicles and goods buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Nothing: An extremely hard material made by precisely taking matter away.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nothing

It was Nothing - Really!, Theodore Sturgeon · 1969

An extremely hard material made by precisely taking matter away.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An extremely hard material would change cutting tools, bearings and wearing parts across industry.

Who is paid. Toolmakers and manufacturers buy it, and nothing in the description stops a second maker, so the big materials firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Weapons and warfare · 50
Illustration of Bolo: A fictional self-directed armoured war vehicle in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bolo

Combat Unit, Keith Laumer · 1960

A fictional self-directed armoured war vehicle in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that find and attack targets without a soldier at risk would change how armies fight.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Chameleon Battle-Dress: Military clothing that changes its look to merge with the surroundings.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chameleon Battle-Dress

Dorsai!, Gordon R. Dickson · 1960

Military clothing that changes its look to merge with the surroundings.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Clothing that blends into any background helps soldiers hide but is one item of kit.

Who is paid. Armies buy it, and a new cloth can be taken apart and copied by rival makers, so the firms that already hold army clothing contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hammer: A fictional computer-directed flying attack machine in the novel.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hammer

Vulcan's Hammer, Philip K. Dick · 1960

A fictional computer-directed flying attack machine in the novel.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that find and attack targets by themselves would change how armies and police forces are staffed and equipped.

Who is paid. Governments pay, and since the parts are widely made and the designs easy to copy, the arms firms with the standing contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Metal BIrds: Fictional flying surveillance machines in the novel that also attack people.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Metal BIrds

Vulcan's Hammer, Philip K. Dick · 1960

Fictional flying surveillance machines in the novel that also attack people.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that find and attack targets by themselves would change how armies and police forces are staffed and equipped.

Who is paid. Governments pay, and since the parts are widely made and the designs easy to copy, the arms firms with the standing contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pencil Beam: A fictional narrow-beam energy weapon in the novel.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pencil Beam

Vulcan's Hammer, Philip K. Dick · 1960

A fictional narrow-beam energy weapon in the novel.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Assuming a soldier carries it, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Power Holster: A fictional quick-draw holster worn by the novel's hero on a hostile planet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Power Holster

Deathworld, Harry Harrison · 1960

A fictional quick-draw holster worn by the novel's hero on a hostile planet.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A holster that puts the gun in the hand faster is a convenience for people who carry one.

Who is paid. Gun owners and officers buy it for themselves, and any maker of small motors and leather goods could produce it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spring-Rifle: A fictional infantry firearm in the novel's mercenary setting.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spring-Rifle

Dorsai!, Gordon R. Dickson · 1960

A fictional infantry firearm in the novel's mercenary setting.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A new way of throwing a projectile from a soldier's gun is a variation on weapons armies already have.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and such guns are easy to copy, so the arms makers that already hold supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Self-Guided Rocket Bullets: A fictional firearm designed for use in space, featured in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Self-Guided Rocket Bullets

The Planet Strappers, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1961

A fictional firearm designed for use in space, featured in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description calls it a firearm, so it is one more kind of gun, a modest step over those armies already carry.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cataclysmite: A fictional explosive mentioned in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cataclysmite

Little Fuzzy, H. Beam Piper · 1962

A fictional explosive mentioned in the story.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Assuming it is a stronger blasting explosive, it is a modest gain for mining and building.

Who is paid. Mines and builders buy it, and many chemical firms can make an explosive, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Boulder: A fictional assassination device aimed at one specific person, used in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Boulder

Cantata 140, Philip K. Dick · 1964

A fictional assassination device aimed at one specific person, used in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A weapon that hunts one named person serves a narrow trade in killing chosen targets.

Who is paid. Secret services pay, and being strange does not make it hard to copy, so once one is built the arms makers that already supply them can make it too and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cephalotropic Dart: A fictional short-range weapon that seeks one individual, used in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cephalotropic Dart

Lies, Inc., Philip K. Dick · 1964

A fictional short-range weapon that seeks one individual, used in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A weapon that hunts one named person serves a narrow trade in killing chosen targets.

Who is paid. Secret services pay, and being strange does not make it hard to copy, so once one is built the arms makers that already supply them can make it too and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cholinesterase-Destroying Gas: A fictional poison gas used as a weapon in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cholinesterase-Destroying Gas

Lies, Inc., Philip K. Dick · 1964

A fictional poison gas used as a weapon in the story.

built since, date unclear

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a poison meant to kill or fell people in bulk, which no one may lawfully buy.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Poison-Bearing Invisible Glove: A fictional concealed weapon worn on the hand, used in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Poison-Bearing Invisible Glove

Lies, Inc., Philip K. Dick · 1964

A fictional concealed weapon worn on the hand, used in the story.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A hidden poison device serves only spies and assassins, a very small trade.

Who is paid. Assuming the only lawful buyer is a state spy service, governments pay, and such gadgets are made in small workshops with no special hold, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Suicide Tooth: A fictional concealed poison capsule in a dental crown, a spy-story prop.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Suicide Tooth

Lies, Inc., Philip K. Dick · 1964

A fictional concealed poison capsule in a dental crown, a spy-story prop.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A poison capsule hidden in a tooth serves only spies who fear capture, a very small trade.

Who is paid. Assuming the only lawful buyer is a state spy service, governments pay, and such gadgets are made in small workshops with no special hold, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Walking Fort: A fictional mobile military fortress modelled on a many-legged creature.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Walking Fort

The Killing Machine, Jack Vance · 1964

A fictional mobile military fortress modelled on a many-legged creature.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Armoured fighting vehicles and warcraft are among the biggest things an army buys, and a better one shifts what winning costs.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and since the designs can be copied, the builders that already own the works and hold the army's supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Crysknife: A fictional ritual blade made from a desert creature's tooth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Crysknife

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A fictional ritual blade made from a desert creature's tooth.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Judged as if the creature existed, a ritual blade made from its tooth is a prized object for a few buyers.

Who is paid. People buy one for themselves, and assuming the teeth are hard to come by, whoever can get them controls the supply.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Dispensing Tooth: A fictional concealed weapon hidden as a tooth, used in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dispensing Tooth

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A fictional concealed weapon hidden as a tooth, used in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A false tooth hiding a last-resort weapon is a tool for a handful of spies.

Who is paid. Spy services pay for the few they need, and any skilled dental workshop could make one.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Family Atomics: Private nuclear arsenals held by noble houses in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Family Atomics

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

Private nuclear arsenals held by noble houses in the story.

already existed before the story (1945)

A large prizeA government pays; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A weapon that can end a war or prevent one is worth a great deal to the state that holds it.

Who is paid. The noble houses are the rulers in the story, so rulers pay, and only the few builders they allow near the material may make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Filterable Virus: A fictional disease agent in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Filterable Virus

The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A fictional disease agent in the story.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A disease agent is a hazard, not a product anyone would pay for.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Garbage-can Banger: A fictional noise-based weapon in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Garbage-can Banger

The Zap Gun, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A fictional noise-based weapon in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A weapon that works by noise is a minor crowd-control tool at best.

Who is paid. Assuming police or armies buy it, a noise-maker is simple to copy, so the suppliers they already use collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gom Jabbar: A fictional poisoned needle used in a ritual test in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gom Jabbar

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A fictional poisoned needle used in a ritual test in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A poisoned needle for a ritual test is a killing tool no one may lawfully buy, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, since a needle and poison are trivial to make and its only use is unlawful.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Heat-Removing Staff: A fictional device that drains heat from a target, used in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Heat-Removing Staff

The Dead Lady of Clown Town, Cordwainer Smith · 1965

A fictional device that drains heat from a target, used in the story.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Judged as if it worked, and assuming a soldier carries it, a staff that chills its target does much the same job as a gun.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and assuming rival makers learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hunter-seeker: A fictional floating assassination device used in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hunter-seeker

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A fictional floating assassination device used in the story.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine built for single secret killings serves only a few covert services, which makes it a niche.

Who is paid. Secret services pay, and it is a small variant of machines the existing arms and robot makers already build, so they collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Lasgun: A fictional laser device used as both weapon and cutting tool in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lasgun

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A fictional laser device used as both weapon and cutting tool in the story.

built in the 1960s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Assuming a soldier carries it, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Maula Pistol: A fictional spring-driven handheld weapon in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Maula Pistol

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A fictional spring-driven handheld weapon in the story.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is one more kind of firearm, a modest step over the guns armies already carry.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of N-e (Needle-eyeification) Weapon: A fictional class of ultra-precise weapons in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

N-e (Needle-eyeification) Weapon

The Zap Gun, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A fictional class of ultra-precise weapons in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Assuming these are guided weapons that hit exactly what they are aimed at, they are the main heavy weapon of modern forces and an industry of their own.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and since the idea is easy to copy once shown, the arms firms that already hold the supply contracts and factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Poison Tongue Dart: A fictional concealed weapon implanted in the mouth, used in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Poison Tongue Dart

The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A fictional concealed weapon implanted in the mouth, used in the story.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A hidden poison device serves only spies and assassins, a very small trade.

Who is paid. Assuming the only lawful buyer is a state spy service, governments pay, and such gadgets are made in small workshops with no special hold, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Residual Poison: A fictional poison used as a means of control in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Residual Poison

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A fictional poison used as a means of control in the story.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A poison used to hold people under control is a tool of coercion that no one may lawfully buy or use.

Who is paid. Nothing is lawfully sold, so there is no payer and no seller to keep anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sheep Dip Isolator: A fictional non-lethal odour-based weapon in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sheep Dip Isolator

The Zap Gun, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A fictional non-lethal odour-based weapon in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A weapon that drives people off or wears them down with sound, smell, gas or words fills a narrow job for police and armies.

Who is paid. Police and armies pay, and these devices are easy to copy, so the suppliers that already sell them equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Slow Pellet Stunner: A fictional projectile weapon designed around personal shields in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Slow Pellet Stunner

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A fictional projectile weapon designed around personal shields in the story.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A gun built to get past personal shields matters only where such shields exist and is otherwise one more variation on a soldier's weapon.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and such guns are easy to copy, so the arms makers that already hold supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Babel-17: A fictional language used as a weapon by an alien enemy in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Babel-17

Babel-17, Samuel R. Delany · 1966

A fictional language used as a weapon by an alien enemy in the story.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A language used as a weapon is not a technology that could be made and sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Kzinti Lesson - Propulsion As Weapon: The idea, in the story, that a ship's drive can double as a weapon.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Kzinti Lesson - Propulsion As Weapon

The Warriors, Larry Niven · 1966

The idea, in the story, that a ship's drive can double as a weapon.

built since, date unclear

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is an observation that a ship's engine can be turned on an enemy, not a device anyone could buy.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, since the idea comes free with any powerful engine.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Laser Rifle: A fictional rifle-style laser weapon in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Laser Rifle

Door to Anywhere, Poul Anderson · 1966

A fictional rifle-style laser weapon in the story.

built in the 1960s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Carried in the hand, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Right Angle Projectile: A fictional missile that can change direction sharply, used in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Right Angle Projectile

The Mad Metropolis, Philip E. High · 1966

A fictional missile that can change direction sharply, used in the story.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Munitions that steer themselves onto a target make each shot count and are a mainstay of what modern armies buy.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and since many engineering firms can build guidance, the missile and ammunition makers that already hold supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Energy-Cannon: A fictional heavy energy weapon in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Energy-Cannon

The Last Castle, Jack Vance · 1967

A fictional heavy energy weapon in the story.

built in the 1960s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A heavy beam that can strike ships or aircraft at the speed of light would reshape how fleets are armed and defended.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Homer: A fictional lethal device used by enforcers in the story's dystopia.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Homer

Logan's Run, William Nolan (w/G.C. Johnson · 1967

A fictional lethal device used by enforcers in the story's dystopia.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Assuming it is a sidearm for the state's enforcers, it is one more kind of police weapon.

Who is paid. The state's enforcers pay, and assuming it is simple to copy the suppliers they already use collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Mechanical Cobra: A fictional robotic assassination device in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mechanical Cobra

Lord of Light, Roger Zelazny · 1967

A fictional robotic assassination device in the story.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine built for single secret killings serves only a few covert services, which makes it a niche.

Who is paid. Secret services pay, and it is a small variant of machines the existing arms and robot makers already build, so they collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Multifunction Gun: A fictional sidearm offering several lethal and non-lethal modes in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Multifunction Gun

Logan's Run, William Nolan (w/G.C. Johnson · 1967

A fictional sidearm offering several lethal and non-lethal modes in the story.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sidearm with several deadly and gentle settings is a handier police gun, not a new power.

Who is paid. Police forces pay, and the gunmakers already supplying them would build it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Soft Weapon: A fictional shape-changing device with multiple functions in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Soft Weapon

The Soft Weapon, Larry Niven · 1967

A fictional shape-changing device with multiple functions in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Assuming it serves as many weapons and tools in one, it would replace much of what a soldier carries.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and assuming rival makers learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tangler: A fictional capsule that expands into a capture net, used by enforcers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tangler

Logan's Run, William Nolan (w/G.C. Johnson · 1967

A fictional capsule that expands into a capture net, used by enforcers.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A device that wraps up or holds a person without hurting them is handy for police but a niche.

Who is paid. Police forces buy it, and it is simple to copy, so the suppliers police already use collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Vapor Charge: A fictional gas-releasing round used in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vapor Charge

Logan's Run, William Nolan (w/G.C. Johnson · 1967

A fictional gas-releasing round used in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A weapon that drives people off or wears them down with sound, smell, gas or words fills a narrow job for police and armies.

Who is paid. Police and armies pay, and these devices are easy to copy, so the suppliers that already sell them equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Crackers: A fictional type of explosive mine used as a weapon in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Crackers

The Time Mercenaries, Philip E. High · 1968

A fictional type of explosive mine used as a weapon in the story.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Mines are cheap, simple weapons that deny ground, a narrow use.

Who is paid. Armies buy them, and since they are simple to copy the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Karatand: A fictional fighting glove used for hand-to-hand combat in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Karatand

Stand on Zanzibar, John Brunner · 1968

A fictional fighting glove used for hand-to-hand combat in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A fighting glove is a minor personal weapon for a few buyers.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it, and a hardened glove is simple for anyone to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Loitering Micro-Missile: A small fictional guided munition used as a weapon in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Loitering Micro-Missile

Invader on My Back, Philip E. High · 1968

A small fictional guided munition used as a weapon in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Self-propelled and guided explosives became the main heavy weapon of modern forces, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and since the idea is easy to copy once shown, the arms firms that already hold the supply contracts and factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mercy Rifle: A fictional dart gun used to subdue rather than kill.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mercy Rifle

Grendel, Larry Niven · 1968

A fictional dart gun used to subdue rather than kill.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A dart that puts a person to sleep is a tool for police and guards, and unlike a paralysing beam it must still hit and carry the right dose, so it stays a narrow use.

Who is paid. Police forces buy it, and it is simple to copy, so the suppliers police already use collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Steam Rifle: A fictional steam-driven firearm carried in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Steam Rifle

Omnivore, Piers Anthony · 1968

A fictional steam-driven firearm carried in the story.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A new way of throwing a projectile from a soldier's gun is a variation on weapons armies already have.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and such guns are easy to copy, so the arms makers that already hold supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Automatic Gun: A fictional autonomous sentry weapon guarding a facility in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automatic Gun

The Andromeda Strain, Michael Crichton · 1969

A fictional autonomous sentry weapon guarding a facility in the story.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A gun that guards one site by itself saves some sentries but serves a narrow use.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Disruptor Bomb: A fictional explosive weapon used in space in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Disruptor Bomb

The Man in the Maze, Robert Silverberg · 1969

A fictional explosive weapon used in space in the story.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is one more kind of bomb, a modest addition to what armies already hold.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Rod: A fictional hand weapon wielded in combat in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rod

Wolfling, Gordon R. Dickson · 1969

A fictional hand weapon wielded in combat in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description gives only a hand weapon, so a simple club or baton is assumed, which is worth little.

Who is paid. Assuming soldiers are the main users, armies buy it, and since it is simple to copy the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Stone Burner: A fictional planet-scale weapon used in an interstellar conflict.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stone Burner

Dune Messiah, Frank Herbert · 1969

A fictional planet-scale weapon used in an interstellar conflict.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A large prizeA government pays; permit holders keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A weapon that can wreck a region or a world is worth a great deal to a state as a threat that keeps others from attacking, though it feeds or houses no one.

Who is paid. Only governments pay for it, and as with nuclear arms only the handful of builders a state allows near such a weapon may make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Surveillance, identity and control · 30
Illustration of Infiltrators: Tiny insect-like spying machines.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Infiltrators

Vulcan's Hammer, Philip K. Dick · 1960

Tiny insect-like spying machines.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Spying machines too small to notice would change what police and spy services can learn, enough for an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Spy and police services pay, and once made they can be copied, so the firms already supplying such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Tracking Device: A small unmanned aircraft steered by a thinking computer to follow people.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Tracking Device

Vulcan's Hammer, Philip K. Dick · 1960

A small unmanned aircraft steered by a thinking computer to follow people.

built in the 1970s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A small aircraft that follows chosen people by itself changes what police can do, like the other flying watchers.

Who is paid. Spy and police services pay, and once made it can be copied, so the firms already supplying such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of IntruGrab: An automated security setup that detains trespassers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

IntruGrab

The Hunch, Christopher Anvil · 1961

An automated security setup that detains trespassers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A system that holds trespassers is an extra on an alarm, and the risk of hurting people keeps the market narrow.

Who is paid. Home owners pay, assuming a house system, and it is easy to copy so the security firms that already fit alarms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Rat-Robot: A small remote-controlled robot used for spying.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rat-Robot

Anything You Can Do, Gordon Randall Garrett · 1962

A small remote-controlled robot used for spying.

built in the 1970s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A small remote robot for spying changes what police and spy services can learn, like the other tiny spy machines.

Who is paid. Spy and police services pay, and once made it can be copied, so the firms already supplying such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Veridicator: A lie detector that turns body signals into colours showing truthfulness.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Veridicator

Little Fuzzy, H. Beam Piper · 1962

A lie detector that turns body signals into colours showing truthfulness.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A lie detector that truly worked would change courts, policing and hiring; the real devices fall well short of this promise.

Who is paid. Courts and police are assumed to be the main buyers, and once made it can be copied, so the firms already supplying them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tattletale: A tracking tag fixed to a suspect so authorities always know their location.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tattletale

The Game Players of Titan, Philip K. Dick · 1963

A tracking tag fixed to a suspect so authorities always know their location.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tag fixed to a suspect tracks only those already caught, so it is a narrow police tool.

Who is paid. Police forces pay, and gear sold to them goes through the firms that already hold their supply contracts.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Bug Chasers: Devices that find and defeat hidden listening equipment.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bug Chasers

Lies, Inc., Philip K. Dick · 1964

Devices that find and defeat hidden listening equipment.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Finding hidden recorders matters only to the few people and firms who fear being spied on.

Who is paid. Firms and officials guarding secrets buy it, and many makers can build such a detector so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Cephalic Sniffer: A device that locates a specific person by their brain activity.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cephalic Sniffer

Clans of the Alphane Moon, Philip K. Dick · 1964

A device that locates a specific person by their brain activity.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Finding any chosen person wherever they are would change police work, rescue and manhunts enough to be an industry.

Who is paid. Police and security services pay, and once shown to work others could build it, so existing police suppliers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Housefly Monitor: A real insect fitted with sensors to spy on people.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Housefly Monitor

Lies, Inc., Philip K. Dick · 1964

A real insect fitted with sensors to spy on people.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A living insect turned into a watcher is a niche spy tool, since small flying machines do the same job more reliably.

Who is paid. Spy services pay, and the few firms already trusted with secret supply work collect because others could copy the method.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ident-Key: A record of everything a person has read, used to forecast their thinking.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ident-Key

The Penultimate Truth, Philip K. Dick · 1964

A record of everything a person has read, used to forecast their thinking.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Forecasting what people think from all they have read would be prized by sellers and campaigners, enough for an industry.

Who is paid. Firms wanting to sway people pay, and the firms that already see what people read hold the records and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Stick-Tight: Small tailing devices that follow a target and record audio or video.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stick-Tight

The Star King, Jack Vance · 1964

Small tailing devices that follow a target and record audio or video.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Small machines that tail a person and record them change what police and spy services can learn.

Who is paid. Spy and police services pay, and once made it can be copied, so the firms already supplying such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Cephalic Pattern Door: A door that opens only for people whose brain patterns it recognises.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cephalic Pattern Door

The Zap Gun, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A door that opens only for people whose brain patterns it recognises.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A door that knows its owner's brain pattern is a fancier lock, a convenience.

Who is paid. Firms guarding secure rooms buy it, assuming office use, and once built it could be copied by any lock maker so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Palm Lock: A lock keyed to one person's handprint.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Palm Lock

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A lock keyed to one person's handprint.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lock keyed to a handprint is a convenience over a key.

Who is paid. Firms and building owners buy it, and a lock that reads the body is easy for any maker to copy so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Poison Snooper: A scanner that checks meals and drinks for toxins.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Poison Snooper

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A scanner that checks meals and drinks for toxins.

built in the 2020s, about 60 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Reliable checking of food and drink for poison would be worth an industry of its own to those who make and serve food.

Who is paid. Assumes food makers, kitchens and inspectors are the main buyers; it can be copied, so the firms already making test instruments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Police Control-Override: Lets police take control of a private car remotely.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Police Control-Override

A Plague of Demons, Keith Laumer · 1965

Lets police take control of a private car remotely.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Stopping a fleeing car from afar is a useful police tool but a narrow one.

Who is paid. Police forces pay, and gear sold to them goes through the firms that already hold their supply contracts.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Remote-Cast Snooper: A compact, concealable toxin scanner.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Remote-Cast Snooper

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A compact, concealable toxin scanner.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A toxin scanner small enough to hide does the same work as the larger poison checker, worth an industry to those who make and serve food.

Who is paid. Assumes food makers, kitchens and inspectors are the main buyers; it can be copied, so the firms already making test instruments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Auto-Scan: Software that steers remote spy drones automatically.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Auto-Scan

This Moment of the Storm, Roger Zelazny · 1966

Software that steers remote spy drones automatically.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Drones that steer themselves let a few people watch wide areas, which is what makes flying watchers an industry.

Who is paid. Police and armies pay, and such software can be written by many, so the firms already supplying the drones collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Eyes: Remote-piloted flying drones used for watching people.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Eyes

This Moment of the Storm, Roger Zelazny · 1966

Remote-piloted flying drones used for watching people.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Cheap flying watchers change the cost of policing, border watch and scouting enough to be an industry of their own.

Who is paid. Police forces and armies pay, and since many firms can build such craft the money goes to those already holding security and defence supply contracts.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Multi-View Surveillance Display: A screen merging feeds from many cameras at once.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Multi-View Surveillance Display

This Moment of the Storm, Roger Zelazny · 1966

A screen merging feeds from many cameras at once.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Showing many camera feeds on one screen is a convenience for guards, not a new industry.

Who is paid. Firms and agencies that run cameras buy it, and any screen maker can build it so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Radar Mesentery: A thick membrane carrying a web of sensors.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Radar Mesentery

This Immortal, Roger Zelazny · 1966

A thick membrane carrying a web of sensors.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description promises only a sheet carrying sensors, a part for an instrument, and not sensing that spreads everywhere like the sensor dust or sees through rock like the ranging entries, so it is judged as a niche part.

Who is paid. Nothing says it watches people, so makers of instruments and vehicles are assumed to buy it, and since it could be copied the firms that already make sensors and electronics collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Fido: A home screen that doubles as news camera and monitoring device.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fido

Riders of the Purple Wage, Philip Jose Farmer · 1967

A home screen that doubles as news camera and monitoring device.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A home screen that also films and watches the household is an industry of its own, as home screens already are.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and screens with cameras are easy to copy, so the firms with brands, factories and broadcast networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Palm Flower: An implanted palm crystal that changes colour to mark a person's age limit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Palm Flower

Logan's Run, William Nolan (w/G.C. Johnson · 1967

An implanted palm crystal that changes colour to mark a person's age limit.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A mark in the hand that shows a person's age limit is an identity scheme, useful only to the state that runs it.

Who is paid. Whoever issues the credential pays, assumed here to be a state, and the firms that already make official papers and registers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Panic Alarm: A home security system that detects intruders and drives them off by inducing fear.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Panic Alarm

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, Philip K. Dick · 1968

A home security system that detects intruders and drives them off by inducing fear.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A home alarm that frightens intruders away is a niche addition to ordinary home security.

Who is paid. Householders buy it, and the firms that already sell and fit home alarms collect because it is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Bird: A small winged drone disguised as a flying bird.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Bird

Invader on My Back, Philip E. High · 1968

A small winged drone disguised as a flying bird.

built in the 1990s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A drone that passes for a bird can watch without being noticed, like the other flying watchers.

Who is paid. Spy and police services pay, and once made it can be copied, so the firms already supplying such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Voight-Kampff Empathy Test: A questioning procedure that reads bodily reactions to tell people apart from artificial imitations.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Voight-Kampff Empathy Test

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, Philip K. Dick · 1968

A questioning procedure that reads bodily reactions to tell people apart from artificial imitations.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Telling people from artificial copies matters only to the few who hunt such copies.

Who is paid. Police forces pay, and gear sold to them goes through the firms that already hold their supply contracts.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Flying Robot Drone Probe: A remotely piloted flying machine used to scout and watch from afar.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flying Robot Drone Probe

The Man in the Maze, Robert Silverberg · 1969

A remotely piloted flying machine used to scout and watch from afar.

built in the 1970s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Cheap flying watchers change the cost of policing, border watch and scouting enough to be an industry of their own.

Who is paid. Police forces and armies pay, and since many firms can build such craft the money goes to those already holding security and defence supply contracts.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Ident Darts: Small drones that follow and keep tabs on particular people.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ident Darts

The Electric Ant, Philip K. Dick · 1969

Small drones that follow and keep tabs on particular people.

built in the 2020s, about 60 years after it was imagined

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Cheap flying watchers change the cost of policing, border watch and scouting enough to be an industry of their own.

Who is paid. Police forces and armies pay, and since many firms can build such craft the money goes to those already holding security and defence supply contracts.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mass Detector: A sensor that reveals nearby bodies by their mass, used when hunting.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mass Detector

The Man in the Maze, Robert Silverberg · 1969

A sensor that reveals nearby bodies by their mass, used when hunting.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Sensing hidden living bodies nearby helps soldiers, hunters and rescuers but is a specialist tool.

Who is paid. Armies and rescue services pay, and it could be copied, so the firms already supplying them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Recording Eye: A tough camera that can be dropped from orbit and sends back wide-angle pictures.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Recording Eye

The Man in the Maze, Robert Silverberg · 1969

A tough camera that can be dropped from orbit and sends back wide-angle pictures.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A camera tough enough to be dropped from orbit serves explorers and surveyors, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Nothing says it watches people, so survey and exploration bodies are assumed to pay, and a rugged camera is easy for many makers to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Voicecorder: A recorder that captures speech and judges whether it is honest.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Voicecorder

Whipping Star, Brian Herbert · 1969

A recorder that captures speech and judges whether it is honest.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A recorder that judges whether speech is honest would change courts, policing and hiring, as the other truth readers would.

Who is paid. Courts and police are assumed to be the main buyers, and once made it can be copied, so the firms already supplying them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Food, agriculture and environment · 19
Illustration of Butcher Vegetable: A crop plant that grows steak-like protein.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Butcher Vegetable

Time is the Simplest Thing, Clifford Simak · 1961

A crop plant that grows steak-like protein.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A crop that grows meat would cut the cost of meat across the whole trade.

Who is paid. Growers buy the plants, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the seed houses and nurseries that already hold stock, land and sales channels collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Carniculture Plants: Factories that culture animal protein as meat without raising livestock.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Carniculture Plants

Four-Day Planet, H. Beam Piper · 1961

Factories that culture animal protein as meat without raising livestock.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Meat without animals at a low price would reshape the whole meat trade, though it replaces one food and not the whole diet.

Who is paid. Shoppers pay, and once the method is known many firms can run tanks, so the meat packers and food brands that already reach the shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Green Guk: Algae cultures kept to supply breathable air in a closed habitat.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Green Guk

The Beat Cluster, Fritz Leiber · 1961

Algae cultures kept to supply breathable air in a closed habitat.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Plants that keep the air fresh serve only the few people living in sealed habitats.

Who is paid. I assumed state space programmes pay, and plants and algae can be regrown by anyone who has a sample, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hunting Robe: An alien predator, thin and furry, that kills prey by wrapping tightly around it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hunting Robe

Time is the Simplest Thing, Clifford Simak · 1961

An alien predator, thin and furry, that kills prey by wrapping tightly around it.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a creature in a story and not something anyone could build or sell.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller gains.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Hydroponics in Space: Growing food crops in nutrient solution aboard spacecraft.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hydroponics in Space

The Planet Strappers, Raymond Z. Gallun · 1961

Growing food crops in nutrient solution aboard spacecraft.

built in the 1990s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Fresh food grown on board is a help to a small number of crews, not a wide market.

Who is paid. Whoever buys the ship buys the tanks with it, usually a ship operator, and the spacecraft builders that fit out sealed cabins supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Carniculture Vat: Tanks that grow meat from cells without animals.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Carniculture Vat

Space Viking, H. Beam Piper · 1962

Tanks that grow meat from cells without animals.

built in 2013, 51 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Meat without animals at a low price would reshape the whole meat trade, though it replaces one food and not the whole diet.

Who is paid. Shoppers pay, and once the method is known many firms can run tanks, so the meat packers and food brands that already reach the shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Dumbler: Half-aware spores from an alien plant in a far-future jungle.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dumbler

Hothouse, Brian Aldiss · 1962

Half-aware spores from an alien plant in a far-future jungle.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a creature in a story and not something anyone could build or sell.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller gains.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Lunar Web: Giant organic strands stretched between the Earth and its moon in a far-future setting.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lunar Web

Hothouse, Brian Aldiss · 1962

Giant organic strands stretched between the Earth and its moon in a far-future setting.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a natural growth in a story, not a technology, and nobody makes or sells it.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller gains.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Syn-Cof: A lab-made substitute for coffee.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Syn-Cof

Cantata 140, Philip K. Dick · 1964

A lab-made substitute for coffee.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. This is a small convenience or novelty in what people drink.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and since the recipe is easy to copy the drink brands that already own shelf space collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Chromoplastic Dew Collector: An egg-shaped gadget whose colour-shifting skin gathers desert morning moisture.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chromoplastic Dew Collector

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

An egg-shaped gadget whose colour-shifting skin gathers desert morning moisture.

built since, date unclear

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Drinking water drawn from dry air would open up dry lands to settlement, which is worth an industry.

Who is paid. People living in dry places buy it for themselves, and I assumed the gear is simple enough that many workshops can make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Dew Gatherers: Devices that capture early-day condensation for drinking.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dew Gatherers

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

Devices that capture early-day condensation for drinking.

built since, date unclear

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Drinking water drawn from dry air would open up dry lands to settlement, which is worth an industry.

Who is paid. People living in dry places buy it for themselves, and I assumed the gear is simple enough that many workshops can make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Slaver Sunflowers: Alien plants that focus sunlight to scorch their enemies.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Slaver Sunflowers

World of Ptavvs, Larry Niven · 1965

Alien plants that focus sunlight to scorch their enemies.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Plants that burn whoever comes near are a hazard, and the description does not say that anyone plants them on purpose as a guard.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller gains.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Spatial-Postal Card: An edible postcard sent to soldiers from home.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spatial-Postal Card

Bill the Galactic Hero, Harry Harrison · 1965

An edible postcard sent to soldiers from home.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A postcard you can eat is a novelty.

Who is paid. Families buy them to send, and printing on something edible is easy for anyone, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Windtrap: Pulls moisture out of the air to supply drinking water.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Windtrap

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

Pulls moisture out of the air to supply drinking water.

built since, date unclear

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Drinking water drawn from dry air would open up dry lands to settlement, which is worth an industry.

Who is paid. People living in dry places buy it for themselves, and I assumed the gear is simple enough that many workshops can make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Lunar Greenhouse Tunnel: An underground growing space on the Moon for crops and other uses.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lunar Greenhouse Tunnel

The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966

An underground growing space on the Moon for crops and other uses.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A growing tunnel on the Moon feeds a small settlement, not a wide market.

Who is paid. Firms working on the Moon pay for it, and because it must hold air against vacuum, the builders that already make sealed shelters collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cloud Sculpting: Shaping clouds into art using gliders and chemical sprays.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cloud Sculpting

The Cloud Sculptors of Coral D, J.G. Ballard · 1967

Shaping clouds into art using gliders and chemical sprays.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Weather shaped as a show is an entertainment for a small audience.

Who is paid. I assumed spectators and patrons pay the performers, and anyone with the gear and the skill can stage one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Syrup Sac: A pouch supplying concentrated nourishment to alien servant workers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Syrup Sac

The Last Castle, Jack Vance · 1967

A pouch supplying concentrated nourishment to alien servant workers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A pouch of feed for servant workers is a plain supply item.

Who is paid. Unlike rations for armies, here I assumed the masters who keep the workers buy it, and a sweet feed is easy for anyone to make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Plastic-Eating Bacteria: Altered microbes able to break down rubber and plastics.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Plastic-Eating Bacteria

The Andromeda Strain, Michael Crichton · 1969

Altered microbes able to break down rubber and plastics.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Microbes that break down plastic and rubber would change the cost of dealing with waste.

Who is paid. Waste firms and councils' contractors buy the cultures, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the laboratories and waste firms that already hold cultures, plant and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Pseudoflesh: Meat grown without raising animals, producing steaks from cultured protein.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pseudoflesh

Whipping Star, Frank Herbert · 1969

Meat grown without raising animals, producing steaks from cultured protein.

built in 2013, 44 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Meat without animals at a low price would reshape the whole meat trade, though it replaces one food and not the whole diet.

Who is paid. Shoppers pay, and once the method is known many firms can run tanks, so the meat packers and food brands that already reach the shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Home and everyday life · 50
Illustration of Dermal Spray: A mist that tints the skin a chosen colour.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dermal Spray

Dr. Futurity, Philip K. Dick · 1960

A mist that tints the skin a chosen colour.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Tinting the skin a chosen colour is a matter of fashion.

Who is paid. Shoppers buy it, and the spray is easy to copy, so the cosmetics brands that already hold the shop shelves collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Living Grass Carpet: Real turf grown indoors as floor covering in place of a rug.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Living Grass Carpet

Stranger in a Strange Land, Robert Heinlein · 1961

Real turf grown indoors as floor covering in place of a rug.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Real grass underfoot indoors is a matter of taste.

Who is paid. Home owners buy it, and any grower of turf can supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Reading Machine: A projector that throws pages of text overhead or onto a screen for comfortable reading.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Reading Machine

Stranger in a Strange Land, Robert Heinlein · 1961

A projector that throws pages of text overhead or onto a screen for comfortable reading.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Throwing a page overhead for comfortable reading is a convenience.

Who is paid. Households buy it and any projector maker can build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sky Ceiling: Large display panels overhead show a changing picture of the sky indoors.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sky Ceiling

Return from the Stars, Stanislaw Lem · 1961

Large display panels overhead show a changing picture of the sky indoors.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An overhead picture of the sky is a comfort for indoor spaces.

Who is paid. Households and building owners buy it, and overhead screens of that size are easy to copy but come out of costly screen factories, so the electronics makers that already own them collect, as with the wall-sized television.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Waterbed (Hydraulic Bed): A mattress holding a sealed sac of water for support.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Waterbed (Hydraulic Bed)

Stranger in a Strange Land, Robert Heinlein · 1961

A mattress holding a sealed sac of water for support.

built in the 1960s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A mattress filled with water is a matter of comfort and taste.

Who is paid. Households buy it and any bedding maker can produce it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Celestial Armamentarium: A small crystal model showing the stars and planets around the home world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Celestial Armamentarium

The Dragon Masters, Jack Vance · 1962

A small crystal model showing the stars and planets around the home world.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A crystal model of the nearby stars is an ornament and a teaching aid.

Who is paid. People buy it for the home, and any skilled craftsman or model maker could produce such a thing.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Luminescent Vial: A glass tube of glowing algae used as a light source below ground.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Luminescent Vial

The Dragon Masters, Jack Vance · 1962

A glass tube of glowing algae used as a light source below ground.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tube of glowing algae gives a dim light for use underground, where a lamp would do better.

Who is paid. People buy or fill them for themselves, and anyone can grow algae in a glass tube.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Psychotropic House: A dwelling that reads its occupants' moods and reshapes itself to reflect them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Psychotropic House

The Thousand Dreams of Stellavista, J.G. Ballard · 1962

A dwelling that reads its occupants' moods and reshapes itself to reflect them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A home that reshapes itself to its occupants' moods is a striking feature of a house, but it does not make housing cheaper or more plentiful.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and once shown it could be copied, so home builders who already hold land and buyers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Senso-Cells: Household sensors that learn occupants' traits so the home can adapt to them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Senso-Cells

The Thousand Dreams of Stellavista, J.G. Ballard · 1962

Household sensors that learn occupants' traits so the home can adapt to them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Sensors that let a home learn and adapt to its occupants are the working part of the mood-reading house, a feature that does not make housing cheaper or more plentiful.

Who is paid. Households buy them with the house, and once shown they could be copied, so home builders who already hold land and buyers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Static House: A formerly shape-shifting house now locked into a single fixed form.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Static House

The Thousand Dreams of Stellavista, J.G. Ballard · 1962

A formerly shape-shifting house now locked into a single fixed form.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Locked into a fixed form, this house has lost the reshaping that made its kind special and is an ordinary home.

Who is paid. Households buy it as they would any house, and since houses are easy to build the builders and developers who already hold land and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tand: A contemplative metal sculpture with ritual significance for initiates.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tand

The Dragon Masters, Jack Vance · 1962

A contemplative metal sculpture with ritual significance for initiates.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sculpture for contemplation matters only to the few initiates who value it.

Who is paid. Those initiates pay for it and any metalworker can make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Chairdog: A living, partly aware chair that molds itself to whoever sits in it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chairdog

The Tactful Saboteur, Frank Herbert · 1964

A living, partly aware chair that molds itself to whoever sits in it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A living chair that shapes itself to the sitter is a comfort and a curiosity.

Who is paid. People buy it for the home, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the breeders and furnishing shops that already hold stock and showrooms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Color Generator: A lamp that can emit any chosen colour of light.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Color Generator

The Killing Machine, Jack Vance · 1964

A lamp that can emit any chosen colour of light.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Choosing the colour of a lamp is a matter of mood and decoration.

Who is paid. People buy it for the home, and many lamp makers can build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Manual Closet: An ordinary wardrobe where clothes are sorted and hung by hand.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Manual Closet

Clans of the Alphane Moon, Philip K. Dick · 1964

An ordinary wardrobe where clothes are sorted and hung by hand.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is an ordinary wardrobe, a plain piece of household furniture.

Who is paid. Households buy it and any furniture maker can build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Nipple-Assist: A small wearable gadget with several functions.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nipple-Assist

Lies, Inc., Philip K. Dick · 1964

A small wearable gadget with several functions.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A small wearable gadget with several functions is a convenience; the description says little more.

Who is paid. Households buy it and many firms can make a small gadget, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Undersea Restaurant: A dining venue built wholly beneath the ocean surface.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Undersea Restaurant

The Star King, Jack Vance · 1964

A dining venue built wholly beneath the ocean surface.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Dining beneath the sea is a treat for visitors.

Who is paid. Diners pay for the meal, and I assumed others could build the same on another coast, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Catchpocket: A pouch in a survival suit that holds recovered water.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Catchpocket

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A pouch in a survival suit that holds recovered water.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A pouch for saved water matters only to people crossing deserts.

Who is paid. Desert travellers buy it as part of their kit, and a pouch is easy for anyone to make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Commuter Cooling Unit: A carry-along air conditioner for people travelling to work.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Commuter Cooling Unit

The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A carry-along air conditioner for people travelling to work.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A cooler you can carry through the heat would matter to everyone who works or travels outdoors in hot places.

Who is paid. Commuters buy it, and I assume the cooling parts are easy to copy, so many makers would compete the gain away.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Doorseal: A portable plastic seal that keeps moisture inside tents.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Doorseal

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A portable plastic seal that keeps moisture inside tents.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping moisture inside a tent matters only to people living in deserts.

Who is paid. Desert travellers buy it, and a plastic seal is easy for anyone to make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Filt-Plug: Nose plugs that trap moisture from breath.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Filt-Plug

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

Nose plugs that trap moisture from breath.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Catching the moisture in your breath matters only to people in deserts.

Who is paid. Desert travellers buy them, and nose plugs are simple for anyone to make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Golden Lights: Decorative lights floating in a gravity-cancelling field.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Golden Lights

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

Decorative lights floating in a gravity-cancelling field.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Lights that float in the air are decoration.

Who is paid. Home owners buy them, and once floating gadgets can be made at all, many makers could build a lamp.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Handicloset: A wardrobe that sorts and arranges its own contents.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Handicloset

The Zap Gun, Philip K. Dick · 1965

A wardrobe that sorts and arranges its own contents.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A wardrobe that tidies itself saves a little effort.

Who is paid. People buy it for the home, and other furniture and appliance makers could copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Imperial Handicraft Globe: A finely made planetary globe given to officials.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Imperial Handicraft Globe

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A finely made planetary globe given to officials.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A finely made globe is an ornament and a mark of rank.

Who is paid. The story has them given to officials, but I assumed such globes are also sold as ornaments, and any skilled craftsman could make them.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Jubba Cloak: A versatile desert garment worn widely on a dry planet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Jubba Cloak

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A versatile desert garment worn widely on a dry planet.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A useful cloak for desert life is everyday clothing for people in dry places.

Who is paid. Desert dwellers buy it, and any tailor can make a cloak.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sandsnork: A snorkel-like tube that feeds air into a tent buried by blowing sand.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sandsnork

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A snorkel-like tube that feeds air into a tent buried by blowing sand.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An air tube for a buried tent is survival gear for a few desert travellers.

Who is paid. Travellers buy it and anyone can make a tube, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sietch: A fortified cave community with its own water reserves in a vast desert.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sietch

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A fortified cave community with its own water reserves in a vast desert.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A fortified cave settlement with stored water serves a few desert communities.

Who is paid. The people who live there pay by building it themselves, and anyone with a cave and labour can do the same, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Stillsuit: A full-body suit that cools the wearer and recycles nearly all body water.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stillsuit

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A full-body suit that cools the wearer and recycles nearly all body water.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A suit that cools and saves body water matters to the few who live or work in deep desert.

Who is paid. Desert dwellers and travellers buy it, and I assumed skilled makers could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Stilltent: A sealed shelter that recovers water from its occupants' breath.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stilltent

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A sealed shelter that recovers water from its occupants' breath.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A shelter that recovers water from breath matters to the few who live or travel in deep desert.

Who is paid. Desert dwellers and travellers buy it, and I assumed skilled makers could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Suspensor Chair: A seat that hovers above the floor.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Suspensor Chair

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A seat that hovers above the floor.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A hovering seat is a luxury piece of furniture, whatever the hovering device might be worth elsewhere.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and I assumed the hovering part can be copied, so any furniture maker could sell it and none keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Suspensor Lamp: A light that hovers wherever it is placed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Suspensor Lamp

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A light that hovers wherever it is placed.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lamp that hovers where it is put is a handy light, whatever the hovering device might be worth elsewhere.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and I assumed the hovering part can be copied, so any lamp maker could sell it and none keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Watertube: A tube routing recovered water inside a desert survival suit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Watertube

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A tube routing recovered water inside a desert survival suit.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tube carrying recovered water is a part of a desert suit that matters to the few who need such suits.

Who is paid. Desert dwellers and travellers buy it with the suit, and anyone can make a tube, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Artificial Gill Outfit: A diving suit that extracts breathable oxygen from the surrounding water.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Artificial Gill Outfit

We Can Remember It For You Wholesale, Philip K. Dick · 1966

A diving suit that extracts breathable oxygen from the surrounding water.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Breathing underwater without tanks would delight divers, but divers are a niche.

Who is paid. Divers buy it for themselves, and I assume that once the material that draws air from water is known, other gear makers could make it too.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Diptray: A floating tray that carries drinks at parties.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Diptray

This Immortal, Roger Zelazny · 1966

A floating tray that carries drinks at parties.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tray that floats round a party is a novelty for hosts.

Who is paid. Hosts buy it, and once floating gadgets can be made at all, many makers could build a tray.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Drinking Bulb: A small handheld vessel for drinks.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Drinking Bulb

The Warriors, Larry Niven · 1966

A small handheld vessel for drinks.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a small container for drinks.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and anyone can make a drinking vessel.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Hush Hood: A hood that blocks sound so conversations cannot be overheard.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hush Hood

The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966

A hood that blocks sound so conversations cannot be overheard.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A hood that keeps talk private is handy for sensitive calls, but it is a convenience.

Who is paid. Offices and people with private business buy it, and a sound-blocking hood is simple for many makers to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sunshades: Glasses that tint automatically with the brightness around them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sunshades

This Immortal, Roger Zelazny · 1966

Glasses that tint automatically with the brightness around them.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Glasses that tint with the light are a better pair of sunglasses.

Who is paid. Households buy them and many eyewear makers can copy them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Floating Booths: Hovering bar seating that drifts together for conversation.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Floating Booths

Handicap, Larry Niven · 1967

Hovering bar seating that drifts together for conversation.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Seats that drift about a bar are a novelty for drinkers.

Who is paid. Bars buy them to draw custom, and once floating furniture can be made at all, many makers could build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Auto-Seal: Outlet covers that close themselves to keep children safe.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Auto-Seal

Stand on Zanzibar, John Brunner · 1968

Outlet covers that close themselves to keep children safe.

built in the 1960s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Self-closing socket covers are a small safety help for parents.

Who is paid. Parents buy them, and they are simple plastic parts any maker can produce.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electro-Binox: Binoculars that focus themselves electronically.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electro-Binox

A Specter is Haunting Texas, Fritz Leiber · 1968

Binoculars that focus themselves electronically.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Field glasses that focus themselves are a small improvement for watchers of birds and games.

Who is paid. Hobbyists buy them, and many makers of lenses and cameras could build them.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sensory-Syrynx: An elaborate performance instrument an artist plays to create multisensory spectacles.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sensory-Syrynx

Nova, Samuel R. Delany · 1968

An elaborate performance instrument an artist plays to create multisensory spectacles.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An instrument for multisensory shows serves a few performers.

Who is paid. Performers buy it, and I assumed instrument makers could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sun Goggles: Eyewear whose lenses dim selectively where glare is strongest.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sun Goggles

Grendel, Larry Niven · 1968

Eyewear whose lenses dim selectively where glare is strongest.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Lenses that dim where glare is strongest are a better pair of sunglasses.

Who is paid. Households buy them and many eyewear makers can copy them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Automated Apartment Maintenance: Machines that look after the upkeep of a rented flat on their own.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automated Apartment Maintenance

Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969

Machines that look after the upkeep of a rented flat on their own.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Machines that keep a flat in repair with no workers would cut a main cost of running housing.

Who is paid. The flat is let to a tenant, so the landlord pays, and the firms that already supply building equipment and service contracts would collect once the machines were common.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ersatz Window: A screen in a windowless room showing a live projected outdoor view.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ersatz Window

Galactic Pot-Healer, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A screen in a windowless room showing a live projected outdoor view.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A false view of the outdoors makes a windowless room nicer.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and a wall-sized screen is easy to copy but comes out of costly screen factories, so the electronics makers that already own them collect, as with the wall-sized television.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Float-home: A bioengineered living creature used as a floating house.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Float-home

Whipping Star, Frank Herbert · 1969

A bioengineered living creature used as a floating house.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A home that is bred and not built would cut the cost of housing, assuming it is cheap to raise.

Who is paid. People buy it as a home, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the growers, builders and landowners that already hold stock, sites and the trade of housing collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Geriatric Rooming-House: Housing designed specifically for very old residents.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Geriatric Rooming-House

Galactic Pot-Healer, Philip K. Dick · 1969

Housing designed specifically for very old residents.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Housing built for the very old is an industry of its own wherever many people live long.

Who is paid. Old people and their families pay, and such homes are easy to copy, so those who own suitable buildings and land collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Multi-function Living Room: A compact room with many uses folded into one space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Multi-function Living Room

Death by Ecstasy, Larry Niven · 1969

A compact room with many uses folded into one space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Folding many uses into a compact room is a convenience for people short of space.

Who is paid. Households pay for it and any builder or furniture maker can do it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Self-Powered Broom: A cleaning broom that sweeps by itself in cramped flats.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Self-Powered Broom

Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A cleaning broom that sweeps by itself in cramped flats.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A broom that sweeps by itself saves a chore in a small flat.

Who is paid. Households buy it and many firms can make a small cleaning machine, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spray-Foam Blouse: A garment formed by spraying fabric foam directly onto the body.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spray-Foam Blouse

Galactic Pot-Healer, Philip K. Dick · 1969

A garment formed by spraying fabric foam directly onto the body.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Clothing sprayed straight onto the body is a novelty way to dress.

Who is paid. I assumed it is sold as a can that is used up with each wearing and bought again, so although the spray is easy to copy, the brands that already hold the shop shelves collect, as with the skin sprays.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Toll Door: An apartment door that demands a coin payment before it will open.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Toll Door

Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969

An apartment door that demands a coin payment before it will open.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A door that charges a coin to open is a way for a landlord to collect small fees.

Who is paid. I assumed landlords buy it and that any lock maker can build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Window Wavelength: Wall screens that show scenery as though they were real windows.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Window Wavelength

Super-Toys Last All Summer Long, Brian Aldiss · 1969

Wall screens that show scenery as though they were real windows.

built in the 2010s, about 50 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Wall screens that pass for real windows are a comfort for windowless rooms.

Who is paid. Households buy them, and wall-sized screens are easy to copy but come out of costly screen factories, so the electronics makers that already own them collect, as with the wall-sized television.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Exotic physics · 21
Illustration of Diamagnetic Levitation: Floating objects by exploiting how magnetic fields repel ordinary matter.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Diamagnetic Levitation

The Currents of Space, Isaac Asimov · 1962

Floating objects by exploiting how magnetic fields repel ordinary matter.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The real effect lifts only tiny things with huge magnets; the promise of floating ordinary objects without touching them would mainly help factories and laboratories.

Who is paid. Firms would buy it for handling delicate work, and magnets are something many makers can supply.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Fold Box: A container with more room inside than its outer size allows.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fold Box

Glory Road, Robert Heinlein · 1963

A container with more room inside than its outer size allows.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Containers bigger inside than out would cut the cost of storing and shipping almost everything.

Who is paid. Shippers and warehouses would buy them in bulk, and a box, once the method is known, is something many makers could turn out.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Multiverse: Parallel universes existing alongside our own.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Multiverse

The Sundered Worlds, Michael Moorcock · 1963

Parallel universes existing alongside our own.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as the visit such worlds stand for in fiction, though this description names no way across: a way into another world could open new lands and materials, and what lies beyond is unknown.

Who is paid. I assume the worlds can be reached as those of the other parallel-universe entry can, and that a state would claim the way across and explore it like a space programme, paying its usual contractors to do the work.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Agfom Potent-Shot: Film that captures images of events about to happen in the near future.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Agfom Potent-Shot

Clans of the Alphane Moon, Philip K. Dick · 1964

Film that captures images of events about to happen in the near future.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Knowing what is about to happen would be worth a great deal to traders, insurers and guards.

Who is paid. Firms would buy it first, but film is easy for many makers to produce once the method is known, and foreknowledge everyone has earns little for its seller.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Downtime: Travelling into the past in a time-travel setting.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Downtime

The Traps of Time, John Baxter · 1964

Travelling into the past in a time-travel setting.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Reaching the past would be worth an industry in study, salvage and statecraft, though few people would need it day to day.

Who is paid. I assume a state would keep for itself a machine that can alter history, so a government pays and its established contractors build it, since others could copy it once shown.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Jump Point: A special place in space from which ships can make interstellar jumps.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Jump Point

Bill for Delivery, Christopher Anvil · 1964

A special place in space from which ships can make interstellar jumps.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A place ships must pass through to jump between stars is worth what the trade through it is worth, as a strait or a harbour is.

Who is paid. Shippers would pay tolls to pass, and I assume the place can be held, so whoever holds it controls a route others cannot make more of.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Time-Warping Construct: A device that seems to open onto alternate or parallel worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Time-Warping Construct

Lies, Inc., Philip K. Dick · 1964

A device that seems to open onto alternate or parallel worlds.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A way into another world could open new lands and materials, though what lies beyond is unknown.

Who is paid. I assume it would be run like a space programme, with a government paying its usual contractors to build and guard it, since others could copy it once shown.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Uptime: The future-bound direction of travel in a time-travel setting.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Uptime

The Traps of Time, John Baxter · 1964

The future-bound direction of travel in a time-travel setting.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A direction of travel through time is a word, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Suspensor: A field that cancels gravity for light objects.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Suspensor

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

A field that cancels gravity for light objects.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Cancelling the weight of light objects only is a convenience for lamps, chairs and small loads.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and with many makers able to copy it no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Antigravity Globe Arena: A spherical wrestling arena without gravity.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Antigravity Globe Arena

Babel-17, Samuel R. Delany · 1966

A spherical wrestling arena without gravity.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A weightless sports hall is one more kind of entertainment venue.

Who is paid. Promoters would pay to build it, and owners of venues and leagues would collect, since any builder could supply the sphere.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Cloaking Device: A field that hides a ship from sight and sensors.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cloaking Device

Balance of Terror, Paul Schneider · 1966

A field that hides a ship from sight and sensors.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A ship that cannot be seen or detected would upset the balance of every navy.

Who is paid. Navies would pay, and the yards and arms makers that already build warships would supply it once the method spread.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Gravity Planer: A machine that generates an artificial gravity field.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gravity Planer

The Warriors, Larry Niven · 1966

A machine that generates an artificial gravity field.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Normal weight on ships and stations would make living and working in space healthy and practical, which is an industry's worth but only for those off Earth.

Who is paid. Ship and station builders would fit it as standard, and with nothing to stop copying, those established builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Miniaturization: Shrinking physical objects, including people, to tiny sizes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Miniaturization

Fantastic Voyage (Novel), Isaac Asimov · 1966

Shrinking physical objects, including people, to tiny sizes.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Shrinking goods and people would change the cost of shipping, storage and work inside the body.

Who is paid. Hospitals and carriers would buy the machines, and with many makers able to copy them no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sleeping Plates: Two plates that cancel gravity so a sleeper floats between them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sleeping Plates

Neutron Star, Larry Niven · 1966

Two plates that cancel gravity so a sleeper floats between them.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Floating in bed between plates is a luxury, with the gravity trick used at its smallest scale.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and with many makers able to copy it no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pray-Machine: A fictional receiver that retrieves disembodied beings from a planet's radiation belt.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pray-Machine

Lord of Light, Roger Zelazny · 1967

A fictional receiver that retrieves disembodied beings from a planet's radiation belt.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Calling back the bodiless selves of people would be worth a great deal to families, assuming that is what it retrieves.

Who is paid. Families would pay, and the temples or clinics that already hold the means to house those selves again collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Illyrion: A family of extremely heavy, stable artificial elements valued as a power source.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Illyrion

Nova, Samuel R. Delany · 1968

A family of extremely heavy, stable artificial elements valued as a power source.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A far richer fuel would cut the cost of power for ships and cities, though unlike an endless source it must be made and used up.

Who is paid. Power and ship firms would pay, and once one plant had made the elements others could, so the firms that already own such plants collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Stasis Box: A sealed container inside which time stands still.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stasis Box

There is a Tide, Larry Niven · 1968

A sealed container inside which time stands still.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Stopping time inside a box would end spoilage and hold the badly hurt until help comes, assuming a container of household or shop size.

Who is paid. Homes, shops and hospitals would buy it like a refrigerator, and since it could be copied the appliance makers with factories and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of TMA-1: A mysterious alien artefact buried on the Moon that signals when uncovered.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

TMA-1

2001: A Space Odyssey, Arthur C. Clarke · 1968

A mysterious alien artefact buried on the Moon that signals when uncovered.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A buried alien signal is a found object, not something made or sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Caliban Beachball: The home of an alien being whose powers enable instant travel between stars.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Caliban Beachball

Whipping Star, Frank Herbert · 1969

The home of an alien being whose powers enable instant travel between stars.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is the dwelling of a living being, not a made thing, and the travel comes from the being's own powers.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, since no one can make or own the creature that does the work.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Gravity Web: A harness that reduces how strongly gravity pulls on its wearer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gravity Web

Whipping Star, Frank Herbert · 1969

A harness that reduces how strongly gravity pulls on its wearer.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Personal flight without wings or fuel would be a new kind of everyday travel, though a narrower use than lifting freight and vehicles.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would buy it as they buy bicycles, and once one firm made it many could, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Protective Field (Safety Field): An energy barrier that shields a whole city.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Protective Field (Safety Field)

The Man in the Maze, Robert Silverberg · 1969

An energy barrier that shields a whole city.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A barrier that stops any attack on a whole city would reshape defence and be worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Armies and city authorities would pay, and since rivals could copy it the firms that already hold defence contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Society and economy · 19
Illustration of Indestructible Contract: A legal agreement recorded in a form that resists tampering or damage.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Indestructible Contract

Dorsai!, Gordon R. Dickson · 1960

A legal agreement recorded in a form that resists tampering or damage.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A record of an agreement that cannot be altered or destroyed is a useful safeguard but a niche.

Who is paid. Firms that sign contracts pay, and many makers could offer such a record, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Calster: A pocket gadget that prints valid money whenever it is needed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Calster

Return from the Stars, Stanislaw Lem · 1961

A pocket gadget that prints valid money whenever it is needed.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A gadget that prints valid money at will would wreck the money it prints, so no one may be allowed to buy it.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Grok: A coined word meaning to understand something so completely that you merge with it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Grok

Stranger in a Strange Land, Robert Heinlein · 1961

A coined word meaning to understand something so completely that you merge with it.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A coined word is free for anyone to use.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Bibs: People placed in frozen storage because society has no role for them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bibs

Cantata 140, Philip K. Dick · 1964

People placed in frozen storage because society has no role for them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This names people set aside in cold storage, a condition of society; I assumed the freezing itself is a separate thing judged elsewhere.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Courtarena: A legal forum where disputes end in lawful combat to the death.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Courtarena

The Tactful Saboteur, Frank Herbert · 1964

A legal forum where disputes end in lawful combat to the death.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A court is part of the law, not a product, even one that settles cases by combat.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Fake-Meter: A pocket gadget that spots forged banknotes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fake-Meter

The Killing Machine, Jack Vance · 1964

A pocket gadget that spots forged banknotes.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Spotting forged notes is a handy check for shops and banks, a niche.

Who is paid. Shops and banks buy it, and many firms can make such a gadget, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Universal Technical Consultative Service: A service that plans and books journeys between star systems.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Universal Technical Consultative Service

The Star King, Jack Vance · 1964

A service that plans and books journeys between star systems.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Planning and booking journeys is a convenience; I assumed the starships already exist.

Who is paid. Travellers pay, and anyone can set up as a booking agent.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Amtal Rule: The principle of testing something until it breaks.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Amtal Rule

Dune, Frank Herbert · 1965

The principle of testing something until it breaks.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A rule of thumb about testing things is an idea anyone may use for free.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Truffle Skins: Genetically unique animal hides used as unforgeable money.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Truffle Skins

The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Philip K. Dick · 1965

Genetically unique animal hides used as unforgeable money.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Money that cannot be forged saves the cost of fakes, a modest gain; unlike the fossil shells it is bred to order.

Who is paid. The government that issues the money pays, and whoever controls the breeding of the animals cannot be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Belter: Someone born and raised among the asteroids.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Belter

The Warriors, Larry Niven · 1966

Someone born and raised among the asteroids.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a name for a kind of person, not a thing that can be built or sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Cellphone Credit Card: Paying for purchases with a mobile phone.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cellphone Credit Card

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

Paying for purchases with a mobile phone.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Paying without cash is worth an industry of its own, and the phone is one way of doing it.

Who is paid. Shops and banks pay fees on each sale, and since the card or chip itself is easy to copy, the banks and payment networks that already hold people's accounts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Moon As Prison: Using the Moon as a penal colony that needs no walls.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Moon As Prison

The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966

Using the Moon as a penal colony that needs no walls.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A prison off the Earth holds prisoners no better than one on the ground, so it is a niche.

Who is paid. A government pays, and since a cell block is easy to copy, the firms that already fly the supply ships collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Online Employability Profile Testing: An online assessment that suggests which careers suit you.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Online Employability Profile Testing

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

An online assessment that suggests which careers suit you.

built in the 2000s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A test that suggests careers is a handy convenience.

Who is paid. People take it for themselves, and anyone can write such a test.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Online Job Search: Lets anyone search job openings across the country by entering their skills.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Online Job Search

The Age of The Pussyfoot, Frederik Pohl · 1966

Lets anyone search job openings across the country by entering their skills.

built in the 1990s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Searching every opening by skill changes how hiring is done and is an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Employers pay to list jobs, and the site with the most listings draws the most seekers, which a newcomer cannot easily copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of TANSTAAFL: The economic maxim that every benefit carries a cost someone must pay.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

TANSTAAFL

The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein · 1966

The economic maxim that every benefit carries a cost someone must pay.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A saying about costs is an idea anyone may repeat for free.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pray-o-Mat: A coin-operated machine that recites prayers for you.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pray-o-Mat

Lord of Light, Roger Zelazny · 1967

A coin-operated machine that recites prayers for you.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A coin machine that prays for you is a novelty.

Who is paid. Worshippers drop in coins, and anyone can build such a machine.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Purple Wage: A universal basic income that the state pays to everyone.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Purple Wage

Riders of the Purple Wage, Philip Jose Farmer · 1967

A universal basic income that the state pays to everyone.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A payment from the state to its people is a policy that moves money around, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Synthesist: A profession devoted to linking insights across separate fields of knowledge.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Synthesist

Stand on Zanzibar, John Brunner · 1968

A profession devoted to linking insights across separate fields of knowledge.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A generalist who joins up findings across fields is a useful but niche adviser.

Who is paid. Firms and laboratories hire them, and the skill lies in people whom anyone can train.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Parenthood Lottery: A random draw deciding who may have children, used to cap population.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Parenthood Lottery

Super-Toys Last All Summer Long, Brian Aldiss · 1969

A random draw deciding who may have children, used to cap population.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A policy or worry about who may have children is a matter of rule and society, not something anyone would buy.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Not classified · 3
Illustration of Kipple: The ever-growing clutter of discarded junk that fills abandoned spaces.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Kipple

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, Philip K. Dick · 1968

The ever-growing clutter of discarded junk that fills abandoned spaces.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

Profit, as AI models judge it: not judged (not a technology, not something sold, not physically possible, or unclear)

Illustration of Bot: An early short word for a robot.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bot

We All Died At Breakaway Station, Richard Meredith · 1969

An early short word for a robot.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

Profit, as AI models judge it: not judged (not a technology, not something sold, not physically possible, or unclear)

Illustration of Ubik Spray Can: An aerosol product that halts the decay of reality around the user.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ubik Spray Can

Ubik, Philip K. Dick · 1969

An aerosol product that halts the decay of reality around the user.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

Profit, as AI models judge it: competed away to users

Ideas from Technovelgy: Science Fiction Timeline of Inventions (Bill Christensen) (archived copy), as compiled in Not Boring: Sci-Fi Idea Bank (Packy McCormick); names, works, authors and years are theirs and every description is this site's rewording. Categories, arrival decades and profit are judged by AI models, not people. Method