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Futures · imagined

Imagined in the 1970s

The technologies stories first imagined in this decade, by kind, with whether each has been built since and who would keep the profit.

By kind of technology

Space travel and habitats · 38
Illustration of Airmaker: A device that produces a breathable gas blend drawn from the surrounding air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Airmaker

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

A device that produces a breathable gas blend drawn from the surrounding air.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Breathable air is essential aboard, but this is a fitting inside a craft or suit, not an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it within the craft, and the established builders of ships and suits supply it because the method is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electromagnetic Cannon: Rim-mounted launchers that help ships land on a fast-spinning megastructure.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electromagnetic Cannon

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

Rim-mounted launchers that help ships land on a fast-spinning megastructure.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Unlike a launch track open to all cargo, this is a landing aid built into a lone giant structure.

Who is paid. Whoever pays for the great structure pays for this, assumed to be a government, and its established builders supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Kemplerer (Klemperer) Rosette: An arrangement of worlds circling a shared empty centre with no sun.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Kemplerer (Klemperer) Rosette

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

An arrangement of worlds circling a shared empty centre with no sun.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. As described it is a layout of worlds, not a thing made or sold; if the story means the worlds were moved into place, it would be judged as a built world instead.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ringworld: A vast habitable band encircling a star, far larger than any planet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ringworld

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

A vast habitable band encircling a star, far larger than any planet.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A band around a star with far more room than any planet would add living room for a large share of humanity.

Who is paid. No private buyer could fund a world, so a government pays and the large builders that already hold public works contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Shadow Square: Giant sunshades orbiting a star to create day and night on the world below.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Shadow Square

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

Giant sunshades orbiting a star to create day and night on the world below.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Shades that give a built world day and night are a part of that giant structure, not a product of their own.

Who is paid. Whoever pays for the great structure pays for this, assumed to be a government, and its established builders supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Launching Laser: Powerful ground-based lasers that push spacecraft by beaming energy to them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Launching Laser

The Fourth Profession, Larry Niven · 1971

Powerful ground-based lasers that push spacecraft by beaming energy to them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Flinging or pushing payloads to space without big rockets would change the cost of the whole launch industry.

Who is paid. Firms with cargo to launch pay, and since others could build such works the gain goes to those who already own launch sites and power.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Skin Suit: A close-fitting pressure garment for space, also usable as a disguise.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Skin Suit

Dinosaur Beach, Keith Laumer · 1971

A close-fitting pressure garment for space, also usable as a disguise.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A suit that keeps a person alive in vacuum or thin air is vital to its wearer but serves only the few who work in space.

Who is paid. Space operators buy suits for their crews, and the few firms that already make such gear supply them since the design can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Gravity Lens: A telescope that uses gravity's bending of light as its lens.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gravity Lens

Protector, Larry Niven · 1973

A telescope that uses gravity's bending of light as its lens.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It adds to knowledge of the sky but yields nothing to sell, so its worth is limited to science.

Who is paid. Nobody could be charged for what it learns, so a government pays the instrument and probe builders that already hold such contracts.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Moon Hopper: A small rocket-driven craft that carries one person across the lunar surface.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Moon Hopper

Rider in the Sky, Raymond F. Jones · 1973

A small rocket-driven craft that carries one person across the lunar surface.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A vehicle for crossing or working another world's surface serves a few expeditions, a niche.

Who is paid. No user is named, so it is assumed that firms working on other worlds buy it like other working gear, and established vehicle builders could all make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ram Field: A field that sweeps up interstellar hydrogen to fuel a starship's engine.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ram Field

Protector, Larry Niven · 1973

A field that sweeps up interstellar hydrogen to fuel a starship's engine.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A field that gathers fuel from the space between stars would free a starship from carrying its own, changing the cost of the longest voyages.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay, and once the engine was shown to work others could build it, so established engine builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Slowboat: A sub-light starship used to settle distant worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Slowboat

Protector, Larry Niven · 1973

A sub-light starship used to settle distant worlds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A slow ship built to settle distant worlds is an enormous building project.

Who is paid. Only a government could fund a voyage with no return for so long, and the big shipbuilders and contractors already trusted with such work would be paid.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Twing: Cargo netting that keeps goods secured aboard ships during free fall or thrust.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Twing

Protector, Larry Niven · 1973

Cargo netting that keeps goods secured aboard ships during free fall or thrust.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Netting that holds cargo in place is a plain piece of ship's gear.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for crews, and it is simple hardware that many workshops could make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Acceleration Chair: A mobile seat that lets crew move around while a ship is under heavy thrust.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Acceleration Chair

The Mote in God's Eye, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1974

A mobile seat that lets crew move around while a ship is under heavy thrust.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It protects crews during hard thrust, which matters only to the few who fly such ships.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as part of the craft, and the firms that already build ships and their fittings supply it since others could copy the design.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Acceleration Couch: A seat that protects occupants while a ship thrusts hard at several gravities.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Acceleration Couch

The Mote in God's Eye, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1974

A seat that protects occupants while a ship thrusts hard at several gravities.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It protects crews during hard thrust, which matters only to the few who fly such ships.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as part of the craft, and the firms that already build ships and their fittings supply it since others could copy the design.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Acceleration Shell: A protective suit that lets its wearer withstand extreme acceleration forces.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Acceleration Shell

The Forever War, Joe Haldeman · 1974

A protective suit that lets its wearer withstand extreme acceleration forces.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It protects crews during hard thrust, which matters only to the few who fly such ships.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as part of the craft, and the firms that already build ships and their fittings supply it since others could copy the design.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Atmosphere Control: Ongoing management keeping the air of a newly engineered planet breathable.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atmosphere Control

The Mote in God's Eye, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1974

Ongoing management keeping the air of a newly engineered planet breathable.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Giving a whole world air and a climate people can live in would open new land for a large share of humanity.

Who is paid. Only a government could fund work on a whole world, and the large engineering firms that already hold such contracts would be paid to do it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cryocapsule: A ship compartment holding crew in suspended animation inside sealed pods.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cryocapsule

The Computer Connection, Alfred Bester · 1974

A ship compartment holding crew in suspended animation inside sealed pods.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Suspending and preserving the body would make very long voyages possible and, assumed here, would matter to medicine too.

Who is paid. Carriers and hospitals would pay, and nothing in the description stops others making it once it is shown to work, so the firms that already supply ships and hospitals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cryonaut: A space traveller kept in frozen suspended animation.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cryonaut

The Computer Connection, Alfred Bester · 1974

A space traveller kept in frozen suspended animation.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It names the traveller who is asleep, not anything made or sold; the sleep itself is judged under the capsule and the gel.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold as a product, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Gee Bath: A fluid-filled bed cushioning older or unfit travellers through strong ship acceleration.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gee Bath

The Mote in God's Eye, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1974

A fluid-filled bed cushioning older or unfit travellers through strong ship acceleration.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It protects travellers during hard thrust, which matters only to the few who fly such ships.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as part of the craft, and the firms that already build ships and their fittings supply it since others could copy the design.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Harvesting Saturn's Rings: Extracting material from a giant planet's rings for industry.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Harvesting Saturn's Rings

The Computer Connection, Alfred Bester · 1974

Extracting material from a giant planet's rings for industry.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Materials taken from other worlds and from loose rock in space would feed an industry of their own.

Who is paid. Firms that need the material pay for it, and since others could dig the same way the gain goes to those who already own the ships and claims.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Asymptotic Drive: A spacecraft engine powered by a captured miniature black hole.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Asymptotic Drive

Imperial Earth, Arthur C. Clarke · 1976

A spacecraft engine powered by a captured miniature black hole.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An engine with almost limitless thrust would change the cost of all travel between worlds.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay, and once a firm had shown how to catch and hold such a black hole others could do the same, so established engine builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Biological Package Probe: A probe carrying living material; the source gives few details.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Biological Package Probe

A World Out of Time, Larry Niven · 1976

A probe carrying living material; the source gives few details.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A probe carrying living material is assumed to be a rare science or seeding mission.

Who is paid. Nobody could be charged for such a mission, so a government pays the probe builders that already hold such contracts.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Bussard Ramjet: A starship engine that gathers fuel from interstellar gas using magnetic fields.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bussard Ramjet

A World Out of Time, Larry Niven · 1976

A starship engine that gathers fuel from interstellar gas using magnetic fields.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An engine that gathers its fuel on the way would make travel to other stars possible.

Who is paid. An engine is bought by whoever runs the ship, assumed here to be carriers as with other drives, and established engine builders could copy it once it worked.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Escape Pod (Life Pod, Boat Pod): A small craft used only as a lifeboat to abandon a larger ship.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Escape Pod (Life Pod, Boat Pod)

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

A small craft used only as a lifeboat to abandon a larger ship.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It saves lives in a disaster, but it is safety equipment carried aboard a larger ship.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for it as required safety gear, and shipbuilders supply it because the design is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Habitable Exoplanet Moon: An Earthlike moon circling a gas giant, able to support life.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Habitable Exoplanet Moon

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

An Earthlike moon circling a gas giant, able to support life.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a natural thing or place in space, not something made or sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Lunar Disneyland: An enormous cavern dug on the Moon and used for large-scale entertainment.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lunar Disneyland

The Phantom of Kansas, John Varley · 1976

An enormous cavern dug on the Moon and used for large-scale entertainment.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Entertainment on a grand scale on the Moon would draw visitors enough for a travel industry of its own.

Who is paid. Visitors pay to come, and another cavern could be dug, so the gain goes to those who already hold the ground and the ships that bring people.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Orbital Factory: Manufacturing carried out on stations circling the planet.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Orbital Factory

Bind Your Sons To Exile, Jerry Pournelle · 1976

Manufacturing carried out on stations circling the planet.

built in 2023, 47 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Making goods in orbit would be an industry of its own if the goods are worth bringing down.

Who is paid. Firms buy the goods, and since others could build such plants the gain goes to those that already own launchers and factory know-how.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Supralight Drive: An engine that lets ships outrun light.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Supralight Drive

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

An engine that lets ships outrun light.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Travel faster than light would open other stars to trade and settlement, a transport industry of its own; it is a change for those who go, not for most people.

Who is paid. Ship operators pay for the drive, and once a firm had built it others could too, so established shipbuilders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Womb Room: A fully immersive ship's control room surrounding the pilot with displays.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Womb Room

A World Out of Time, Larry Niven · 1976

A fully immersive ship's control room surrounding the pilot with displays.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A control room that surrounds the pilot with displays is a better cockpit, a fitting of the ship.

Who is paid. Ship operators buy it as part of the craft, and the established makers of flight instruments supply it since it can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Centrifuge Room: A small rotating chamber on a minor planet that simulates gravity by spinning.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Centrifuge Room

The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977

A small rotating chamber on a minor planet that simulates gravity by spinning.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Spinning to give weight is a design feature of a habitat, useful but not a product of its own.

Who is paid. Whoever pays for the habitat pays for this, assumed here to be a government, and any habitat builder can use the idea so the established builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Rogue World: A planet drifting through interstellar space with no star to orbit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rogue World

Dying of the Light, George RR Martin · 1977

A planet drifting through interstellar space with no star to orbit.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a natural thing or place in space, not a product anyone makes or sells.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller collects.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Operation Cleanup: A program that clears dead satellites and fragments out of low orbit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Operation Cleanup

The Fountains of Paradise, Arthur C. Clarke · 1978

A program that clears dead satellites and fragments out of low orbit.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Clearing junk from orbit protects every satellite, a useful service but a modest part of what space work costs.

Who is paid. No satellite owner can be charged for a cleaner sky, so a government is assumed to pay, and the established builders of small craft do the work.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Orbiting Factories: Production plants circling the planet that make goods in weightless conditions.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Orbiting Factories

The Fountains of Paradise, Arthur C. Clarke · 1978

Production plants circling the planet that make goods in weightless conditions.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Making goods in orbit would be an industry of its own if the goods are worth bringing down.

Who is paid. Firms buy the goods, and since others could build such plants the gain goes to those that already own launchers and factory know-how.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Space Elevator (Orbital Tower): A cable tower linking the equator to a satellite far overhead for cheap access to orbit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Space Elevator (Orbital Tower)

The Fountains of Paradise, Arthur C. Clarke · 1978

A cable tower linking the equator to a satellite far overhead for cheap access to orbit.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2080s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A fixed way up from the ground to the edge of space would slash the cost of reaching orbit for every firm that uses it.

Who is paid. Shippers pay to send cargo up, and since another could be built once the idea was shown to work, the gain is assumed to go to the large builders and the holders of the few good ground sites.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Needles (Chocolate and Vanilla): Gigantic inflatable towers reaching the thin upper edge of the atmosphere.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Needles (Chocolate and Vanilla)

Sundiver, David Brin · 1979

Gigantic inflatable towers reaching the thin upper edge of the atmosphere.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A fixed way up from the ground to the edge of space would slash the cost of reaching orbit for every firm that uses it.

Who is paid. Shippers are assumed to pay to launch from the top, and since another tower could be built once any had stood, the gain is assumed to go to the large builders and the holders of the few good ground sites.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Sub-Etha Sens-O-Matic

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams · 1979

A pocket gadget that alerts a traveller when a starship is passing nearby.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A pocket alarm for passing ships is a gadget for the few travellers who want a ride.

Who is paid. The description names a traveller carrying it, so ordinary people are assumed to buy it, and it is pocket electronics that many firms could make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Whoopee Drive: A cartoon spacecraft engine with no stated working principle.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Whoopee Drive

Space Angel, John Maddox Roberts · 1979

A cartoon spacecraft engine with no stated working principle.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. It is judged as an engine that works, since the story gives no principle; any working engine sets how far and fast ships can go.

Who is paid. Whoever runs the ship pays for the engine, assumed here to be carriers, and once a firm had built it others could too, so established engine and ship builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Wire-Gun: A tether launcher that helps a person pull themselves around in weightlessness.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Wire-Gun

Mobile Suit Gundam, Yoshiyuki Tomino · 1979

A tether launcher that helps a person pull themselves around in weightlessness.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A launcher for a line helps a person pull about without weight, a simple tool for a few workers.

Who is paid. Space operators buy it for crews, and it is simple hardware that many workshops could make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Computing, AI and virtual worlds · 25
Illustration of Computer Virus: Self-spreading malicious software, portrayed in the story as a threat to computers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Computer Virus

The Scarred Man, Gregory Benford · 1970

Self-spreading malicious software, portrayed in the story as a threat to computers.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Judged as a working weapon rather than as the harm it does, software that damages an enemy's computers is a narrow tool of attack.

Who is paid. Those it harms pay nothing, so I assume a government buys it as a weapon, and since such software is easy to write the firms that already supply states with arms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sigfrid von Shrink: Software that provides psychotherapy automatically, without a human therapist.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sigfrid von Shrink

Gateway, Frederik Pohl · 1970

Software that provides psychotherapy automatically, without a human therapist.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Therapy from a machine at any hour would bring help to the many people who cannot find or afford a human therapist.

Who is paid. Ordinary people pay, and once machines can counsel many firms can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Unichapel (Robotic Confession Booth): An automated booth that hears confessions and replies with scripted words.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Unichapel (Robotic Confession Booth)

THX 1138, George Lucas · 1970

An automated booth that hears confessions and replies with scripted words.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A booth that answers confessions with stock phrases gives little comfort and serves mainly to keep people quiet.

Who is paid. The state that wants its people soothed pays for the booths, and anyone can build a machine that plays scripted replies, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Pope: An intelligent machine elected to lead a major church.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Pope

Good News From the Vatican, Robert Silverberg · 1971

An intelligent machine elected to lead a major church.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is an event in a story, a machine chosen to lead a church, and not a product anyone buys.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Verse Transcriber: A machine that composes flawless poems from a set of requirements.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Verse Transcriber

Studio 5, The Stars, J.G. Ballard · 1971

A machine that composes flawless poems from a set of requirements.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Flawless poems written to order with no human maker would change the costs of the whole trade that now pays people to make them, which is far more than an amusement.

Who is paid. I assume the firms that now pay writers, composers and illustrators are the main buyers, though people may also order for themselves, and once the method is known many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ilse: The first thinking computer built to run a spacecraft.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ilse

Long Shot, Vernor Vinge · 1972

The first thinking computer built to run a spacecraft.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that truly thinks could do much of the mental work people do now, not only run one ship, which would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Welton Cube: A compact block that holds enormous amounts of data in very little space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Welton Cube

Time Enough For Love, Robert Heinlein · 1973

A compact block that holds enormous amounts of data in very little space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Cheap, compact and lasting storage for information is an industry of its own, since every computer needs it.

Who is paid. Computer makers and data keepers buy it, and because rivals soon match each design, the firms that already own the costly factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Handbag Computer: A portable device that talks on your behalf in conversations.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Handbag Computer

The Futurological Congress, Stanislaw Lem · 1974

A portable device that talks on your behalf in conversations.

built in the 2000s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Software that answers on your behalf saves its owner time and trouble, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay a little for it, and it is easy to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Computer Worm (Tapeworm): Self-propagating software that travels between networked computers, shown in the story as a disruptive tool.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Computer Worm (Tapeworm)

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

Self-propagating software that travels between networked computers, shown in the story as a disruptive tool.

built in the 1970s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Judged as a working weapon rather than as the harm it does, software that damages an enemy's computers is a narrow tool of attack.

Who is paid. Those it harms pay nothing, so I assume a government buys it as a weapon, and since such software is easy to write the firms that already supply states with arms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Net Shutdown Worm: A fictional emergency program for switching off a national network.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Net Shutdown Worm

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

A fictional emergency program for switching off a national network.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A switch for turning off a national network is an emergency tool wanted by one buyer.

Who is paid. A government pays for it, and the firms that already run the network are the only ones placed to build it in.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Retaliatory Tapeworm (Counter-Worm): Malicious software aimed at harming a specific person, depicted as a digital attack in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Retaliatory Tapeworm (Counter-Worm)

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

Malicious software aimed at harming a specific person, depicted as a digital attack in the story.

built in the 1970s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Judged as a working weapon rather than as the harm it does, a program built to hurt a chosen person is a narrow tool of attack.

Who is paid. Those it harms pay nothing, so I assume a government buys it as a weapon, and since such software is easy to write the firms that already supply states with arms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Comsole (Home Communications Console): A home computer terminal linked to online information services.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Comsole (Home Communications Console)

Imperial Earth, Arthur C. Clarke · 1976

A home computer terminal linked to online information services.

built in 1977, 1 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A computer at home linked to the world's information changed how most people learn, shop and work.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy one each, many firms can make them, and those with factories, brands and the network lines collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Keyboard With Changing Keys: A keyboard whose keys carry small screens so their labels can change.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Keyboard With Changing Keys

Imperial Earth, Arthur C. Clarke · 1976

A keyboard whose keys carry small screens so their labels can change.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keys whose labels change are a nicer keyboard and not a new capability.

Who is paid. People buy it as an accessory to machines they already own, and any electronics firm can make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Minisec: A pocket digital organiser for notes, schedules and information.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Minisec

Imperial Earth, Arthur C. Clarke · 1976

A pocket digital organiser for notes, schedules and information.

built in 1984, 8 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A pocket organiser for notes and schedules is worth an industry of its own, though as described it keeps a diary and is not the networked computer that changes how most people live.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy one each, many firms can make them, and those with the factories, brands and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Neuristor Brain: A computer built from components that mimic nerve cells.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Neuristor Brain

My Name is Legion, Roger Zelazny · 1976

A computer built from components that mimic nerve cells.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Parts that work like brain cells would make thinking machines cheaper to build and run, which is worth an industry.

Who is paid. Machine builders buy them, and I assume others could learn to make such parts in time, so the firms that already own the costly factories for electronic parts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Star Stone (Speicus): A stone-shaped thinking machine that speaks with living beings mind to mind.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Star Stone (Speicus)

Doorways in the Sand, Roger Zelazny · 1976

A stone-shaped thinking machine that speaks with living beings mind to mind.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine that thinks and speaks straight into the mind, which I assume could be made in numbers, could do much of the mental work people do now.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put it to work, and once one had been built others could learn to build their own, so I assume the firms that already own costly computing plant and sell to every business collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Briefcase Computer: A portable workstation in a carry case.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Briefcase Computer

Inherit the Stars, James P. Hogan · 1977

A portable workstation in a carry case.

already existed before the story (1975)

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A computer that travels with its user changed office work enough to be an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Firms buy them for staff, the design is easy to copy, and the established computer makers with factories and sales channels collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Daily Schedule (DS): A voice-driven assistant that keeps your calendar, reminds you of tasks and argues back when you slip.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Daily Schedule (DS)

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

A voice-driven assistant that keeps your calendar, reminds you of tasks and argues back when you slip.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A diary that reminds and nags is a convenience.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay a little for it, and it is easy to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Holo-Printing: Faulty data traces left in holographic recordings made under poor conditions.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Holo-Printing

A Scanner Darkly, Philip K. Dick · 1977

Faulty data traces left in holographic recordings made under poor conditions.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. These are flaws left in a recording and not a product anyone would pay for.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Network Monitoring Detection: Software that alerts a user when someone is watching their computer terminal.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Network Monitoring Detection

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

Software that alerts a user when someone is watching their computer terminal.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A warning that someone is watching your screen is a single useful feature.

Who is paid. Firms and careful users buy it, and many software writers can make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Personality Simulator: A machine that models an individual from gathered records to forecast how they would act.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Personality Simulator

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

A machine that models an individual from gathered records to forecast how they would act.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Forecasting how a particular person will act is worth a great deal to lenders, employers, sellers and police.

Who is paid. Firms are assumed to be the main buyers, and those that already hold the records about people are the ones who can build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Computer Generated DigItal Music: Software that composes songs from a handful of user prompts.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Computer Generated DigItal Music

The Moon Goddess and the Son, Donald Kingsbury · 1979

Software that composes songs from a handful of user prompts.

already existed before the story (the 1960s)

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Songs composed to order with no human maker would change the costs of the whole trade that now pays people to make them, which is far more than an amusement.

Who is paid. I assume the firms that now pay writers, composers and illustrators are the main buyers, though people may also order for themselves, and once the method is known many can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Deep Thought: A colossal thinking computer built to answer the deepest question of all.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Deep Thought

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams · 1979

A colossal thinking computer built to answer the deepest question of all.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A machine able to answer the deepest question could, I assume, answer lesser ones too, and would change how most people learn, decide and work.

Who is paid. I assume a single machine serving everyone would be built as a public work, so a government pays, and the firms that already build large computing works for governments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of GPP Genuine People Personalities: Built-in simulated personalities that give everyday machines their own moods.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

GPP Genuine People Personalities

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams · 1979

Built-in simulated personalities that give everyday machines their own moods.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A character for a machine is a pleasant feature laid on top of the thinking, not the thing people mainly pay for.

Who is paid. Firms that sell machines would buy it as a feature, and once machines can talk a persona is easy for anyone to write.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gesture-Controlled Device: Electronics operated by waving or moving the hands.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gesture-Controlled Device

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams · 1979

Electronics operated by waving or moving the hands.

built in the 2010s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A new way to type or point is a convenience, since keyboards and screens already do the job.

Who is paid. Ordinary people get it inside gadgets they buy, and it is easy to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Communication, media and displays · 28
Illustration of Holo: A shortened word for a three-dimensional hologram image.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Holo

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

A shortened word for a three-dimensional hologram image.

already existed before the story (1964)

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The word stands for pictures with true depth, which would replace flat screens in homes and workplaces.

Who is paid. Judging the display the word names, households buy it, the design can be copied, and the existing screen makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Neck Radio: An implant that plays commercial broadcasts inside the wearer's head.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Neck Radio

Our Friends From Frolix 8, Philip K. Dick · 1970

An implant that plays commercial broadcasts inside the wearer's head.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Sound fed straight into the ear is a convenience over an ordinary radio or speaker.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it and many firms can make tiny ear pieces, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Tower of Glass: A giant glass spire built to send messages beyond the solar system.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tower of Glass

Tower of Glass, Robert Silverberg · 1970

A giant glass spire built to send messages beyond the solar system.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. One great spire for calling beyond the solar system is a single act of curiosity with no customers waiting for the service.

Who is paid. I assume a state would pay for it as a science project, as nobody could be charged for its use, and the big builders that already win such works would be paid.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Translator Discs: Worn devices that link to a computer to translate speech between languages.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Translator Discs

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

Worn devices that link to a computer to translate speech between languages.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Being understood in any language while wearing a small disc removes a barrier to travel and trade for a great many people.

Who is paid. Travellers and traders buy it, and once one firm had made a good translator others could too, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Pocket Display Projector: A pocket-sized projector that throws sharp images for a group to watch.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pocket Display Projector

The Anome, Jack Vance · 1971

A pocket-sized projector that throws sharp images for a group to watch.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Unlike a personal film player, a projector in the pocket is an accessory for showing pictures to a group.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it and many firms can make one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Implanted Tranceiver: A body implant for two-way talk without carrying a handset.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Implanted Tranceiver

The Godmakers, Frank Herbert · 1972

A body implant for two-way talk without carrying a handset.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A phone inside the body that is never lost or left behind would be worth an industry, though surgery would put many people off.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, the device can be copied, and the firms that own the phone networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Newstaper Gear: Portable kit a one-person news crew uses to find, film and report stories.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Newstaper Gear

Flash Crowd, Larry Niven · 1972

Portable kit a one-person news crew uses to find, film and report stories.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Portable recording and sending kit is a useful tool for one trade.

Who is paid. News firms buy it and many makers can build such kit, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Transmit-Paper: Writing sheets that send pen strokes over a network to distant computers.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Transmit-Paper

The Godmakers, Frank Herbert · 1972

Writing sheets that send pen strokes over a network to distant computers.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Paper that sends pen strokes to a distant computer is a handy way to enter notes, not a need.

Who is paid. Offices buy it, and since many can make such sheets, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Light-Sculpture: An artwork shaped from light itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Light-Sculpture

Light Verse, Isaac Asimov · 1973

An artwork shaped from light itself.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An artwork made of light is a luxury for collectors.

Who is paid. Collectors buy it; I assumed the method is open to any artist, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Phone-Grid Transex Network: A fictional networked intimacy service portrayed as addictive in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Phone-Grid Transex Network

Flow My Tears, The Policeman Said, Philip K. Dick · 1974

A fictional networked intimacy service portrayed as addictive in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A networked intimacy service that people cannot put down would draw spending on the scale of an industry.

Who is paid. Users pay; I assumed it stays legal and can be copied, so the firms that own the phone network it runs on collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Picphone: A compact phone with a screen for sending and seeing pictures.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Picphone

Flow My Tears, The Policeman Said, Philip K. Dick · 1974

A compact phone with a screen for sending and seeing pictures.

built in the 2000s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A phone carried everywhere changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it; handsets are easy to copy, so the firms that own the networks and airwaves collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Projection: Sending a lifelike image of yourself to appear somewhere far away.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Projection

The Computer Connection, Alfred Bester · 1974

Sending a lifelike image of yourself to appear somewhere far away.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Appearing lifelike in a far place would replace much travel for meetings.

Who is paid. I assumed firms pay to save travel; once shown it can be copied, so the firms that own the networks carrying the image collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Projection Commercials: Three-dimensional adverts projected directly into people's path in public spaces.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Projection Commercials

The Computer Connection, Alfred Bester · 1974

Three-dimensional adverts projected directly into people's path in public spaces.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Adverts thrown into people's path are one more way to advertise, not a new need.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay, the projector is easy to copy and nobody owns the open air it shines into, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Talking Pamphlet: A printed guide that explains its instructions aloud in plain speech.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Talking Pamphlet

Ellison Wonderland, Harlan Ellison · 1974

A printed guide that explains its instructions aloud in plain speech.

built in the 1970s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Print that speaks is a handy extra on a book or a leaflet, not something people need.

Who is paid. Publishers and makers of goods pay to add it, and since the chip is cheap and simple to copy, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Data-Net: A countrywide computer network linking data across a nation.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Data-Net

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

A countrywide computer network linking data across a nation.

already existed before the story (1969)

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A network linking information across a whole country changes how most people work, shop and talk.

Who is paid. Households pay for a connection, the method is open for anyone to use, and the firms that own the wires and masts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Hearing Aid: An anonymous phone line where callers speak to someone who only listens.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hearing Aid

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

An anonymous phone line where callers speak to someone who only listens.

already existed before the story (the 1960s)

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A line where someone simply listens comforts callers in need and is not a large trade.

Who is paid. Assuming callers pay a little or give to keep it running, anyone with patient listeners and a phone line can offer it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tiered Internet: Giving some kinds of network traffic priority over others.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tiered Internet

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

Giving some kinds of network traffic priority over others.

built in the 2000s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Letting some traffic jump the queue changes what network owners can charge the firms that depend on them.

Who is paid. Firms that need fast delivery pay for the faster lane, and only those who already own the lines can sell it, so they collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Comlink: A small handheld device for talking to others remotely.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Comlink

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

A small handheld device for talking to others remotely.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A small device for talking to anyone at a distance changes how most people live and work.

Who is paid. People buy one each, handsets are easy to copy, and the firms that own the networks the calls travel over collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Poster TV: A television as thin as a wall poster.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Poster TV

A World Out of Time, Larry Niven · 1976

A television as thin as a wall poster.

already existed before the story (1964)

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A television as thin as a poster is the wall screen of the home, an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ordinary people buy it inside the things they own; once shown it can be copied, so the firms with the big screen factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Trans-Space Transmission: A method for sending messages instantly between worlds across space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Trans-Space Transmission

The Moon Moth, Jack Vance · 1976

A method for sending messages instantly between worlds across space.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Talking across the stars with no delay would be the backbone of trade and rule between worlds, judged as if it worked, though it serves only those who live or work out there.

Who is paid. Assuming it needs great stations and not a pocket set, firms and governments with far-flung operations pay for the traffic, others could build the device once it is known to work, and the carriers whose networks feed the stations collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Caleban Contact: Mind-to-mind communication powered by colossal energy expenditure.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Caleban Contact

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

Mind-to-mind communication powered by colossal energy expenditure.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is contact with a strange being that happens to people, not a device anyone could make and sell.

Who is paid. Nothing is made or sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ghostsmoke: Promotional images cast onto a hanging cloud of fine spray.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ghostsmoke

The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977

Promotional images cast onto a hanging cloud of fine spray.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Images on a cloud of spray are one more way to catch the eye for an advertisement.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and a sprayer and a projector are easy for anyone to set up, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Holo-Cube: A room-sized three-dimensional image display that viewers can step inside.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Holo-Cube

A Scanner Darkly, Philip K. Dick · 1977

A room-sized three-dimensional image display that viewers can step inside.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A room-sized picture with depth that you can step into would replace flat screens for home entertainment.

Who is paid. Assuming it is fitted in homes, households buy it, the design can be copied, and the existing screen makers, who own the factories and brands, collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Holomist: Advertising projected onto a curtain of fine vapour.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Holomist

The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977

Advertising projected onto a curtain of fine vapour.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Advertising on a curtain of vapour is one more way to catch the eye.

Who is paid. Advertisers pay, and a sprayer and a projector are easy for anyone to set up, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Holopad: A handheld tablet that shows pictures with true depth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Holopad

The Fountains of Paradise, Arthur C. Clarke · 1978

A handheld tablet that shows pictures with true depth.

built in the 1990s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A handheld tablet showing pictures with true depth, working as the story promises and not as those built so far, would replace flat screens on personal devices.

Who is paid. Households buy it, the design can be copied, and the existing screen makers, who own the factories and brands, collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Personal Interest Profile (PIP): A stored list of subjects that pulls in fresh news matching a reader's interests.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Personal Interest Profile (PIP)

The Fountains of Paradise, Arthur C. Clarke · 1978

A stored list of subjects that pulls in fresh news matching a reader's interests.

built in the 2000s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. News sorted to each reader's interests changes how the news trade reaches people.

Who is paid. Readers pay by subscription; the sorting is easy to copy, so those who already hold the reporting and the audience collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Babel Fish: A small creature worn in the ear that translates any spoken language for its host.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Babel Fish

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams · 1979

A small creature worn in the ear that translates any spoken language for its host.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Understanding any spoken language at once would remove a cost from travel, trade and every job done across borders.

Who is paid. People buy one each, and since it is a creature that breeds, anyone can raise and sell them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electronic Book: A handheld electronic reference book with a screen and simple controls.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electronic Book

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams · 1979

A handheld electronic reference book with a screen and simple controls.

built in 1998, 19 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A handheld electronic book changes what it costs to publish, ship and store books.

Who is paid. Readers buy the device and the books, the device is easy to copy, and the publishers who own the right to the contents collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Robotics and automation · 23
Illustration of Luggage Robot: A robot that carries guests' bags in automated hotels.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Luggage Robot

The Stainless Steel Rat's Revenge, Harry Harrison · 1970

A robot that carries guests' bags in automated hotels.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A robot that carries guests' bags is a convenience for hotels.

Who is paid. Hotels buy them for their guests, and many makers could build such a carrier, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robotnik Automated Hotel: A hotel run entirely by machines with no human staff.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robotnik Automated Hotel

The Stainless Steel Rat's Revenge, Harry Harrison · 1970

A hotel run entirely by machines with no human staff.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A hotel with no human staff would remove most of the labour cost of lodging.

Who is paid. Hotel operators buy the machines, and since many could build them the established makers that already equip and service such buildings collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robutler: A robot that serves as a household butler.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robutler

The Stainless Steel Rat's Revenge, Harry Harrison · 1970

A robot that serves as a household butler.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A robot butler does the run of household work, worth an industry of its own, though it is the general machine set to one part of life.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and as many could make such machines the firms with factories and well-liked brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Autobutle: A mechanical servant that handles household tasks.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Autobutle

The Godmakers, Frank Herbert · 1972

A mechanical servant that handles household tasks.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that takes over housework would be worth an industry of its own, though it serves the home alone and not work at large.

Who is paid. Families buy it like any large appliance, and it is easy enough to copy that the appliance makers with factories, shops and trusted brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Biot: A living organism built to serve as a robot.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Biot

Rendezvous With Rama, Arthur C. Clarke · 1972

A living organism built to serve as a robot.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A living thing built to serve as a robot is judged like any general working machine, which would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms buy them as labour, and since many could build such bodies once shown how, the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ironing Robot: A machine that presses creases out of clothes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ironing Robot

Iron (утюг), Mikhail Mikheev · 1972

A machine that presses creases out of clothes.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Pressing clothes by machine removes a lone minor chore, a narrower job than a full servant does.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and it is a simple appliance many could make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spider Tripod Robot: A three-legged robot of alien origin.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spider Tripod Robot

Rendezvous With Rama, Arthur C. Clarke · 1972

A three-legged robot of alien origin.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description gives this alien walker no job, so it is judged as a niche walking machine.

Who is paid. Firms with odd jobs for it are assumed to buy it, and once one was studied many makers could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Window-Cleaner Robots: Machines that clean and polish glass surfaces.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Window-Cleaner Robots

Rendezvous With Rama, Arthur C. Clarke · 1972

Machines that clean and polish glass surfaces.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Machines that clean and polish glass save some labour on large buildings, a niche.

Who is paid. Building owners and cleaning firms buy them, and many makers could build them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Gas Station: A fully automated station that refuels cars.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Gas Station

Flow My Tears, The Policeman Said, Philip K. Dick · 1974

A fully automated station that refuels cars.

built in the 1970s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A station that refuels cars with no staff saves attendants, who are a lesser cost of selling fuel, and drivers serving themselves already did most of it.

Who is paid. Fuel sellers buy the machinery, and many firms could make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Autoporter: A machine that follows travellers through airports carrying their luggage.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Autoporter

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

A machine that follows travellers through airports carrying their luggage.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine that carries bags behind a traveller is a convenience.

Who is paid. Airports are assumed to buy them for their passengers, and many makers could build such a carrier, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Droid (Star Wars): A general word for the many kinds of working robots in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Droid (Star Wars)

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

A general word for the many kinds of working robots in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Working robots of many kinds doing most jobs would change how most people work.

Who is paid. Firms buy them as labour, and since many could build such bodies once shown how, the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Hangman: A remotely operated machine that can also act on its own.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hangman

My Name is Legion, Roger Zelazny · 1976

A remotely operated machine that can also act on its own.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A machine worked from afar that can also act alone is a tool for dangerous or distant jobs, a niche as described.

Who is paid. Firms buy it for their own work, and such machines and their controls could be copied by many makers.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of R2-D2 (Artoo-Detoo): A small, nimble utility robot, now a byword for such machines.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

R2-D2 (Artoo-Detoo)

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

A small, nimble utility robot, now a byword for such machines.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. A small, nimble utility robot is assumed to be the general working robot of its story, able to take on most kinds of work.

Who is paid. Firms buy them as labour, and since many could build such bodies once shown how, the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Remote (or Seeker Remote): A floating training drone that tests a fighter's reflexes.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Remote (or Seeker Remote)

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

A floating training drone that tests a fighter's reflexes.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A floating drone that tests a fighter's reflexes is a training aid for a few.

Who is paid. Fighters and their families buy it, and many makers could build a like machine.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Restraining Bolt: A fitted device that forces a robot to obey its owner.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Restraining Bolt

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

A fitted device that forces a robot to obey its owner.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A device that forces a robot to obey is a control fitting, valued only as part of the robot.

Who is paid. Firms that own robots pay for it, and any maker of robots can fit it, so nothing more is kept for it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sensor Arm: A telescoping arm carrying a bundle of sensors for many tasks.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sensor Arm

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

A telescoping arm carrying a bundle of sensors for many tasks.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. An extending arm with a cluster of sensors is a handy fitting on a robot, a feature.

Who is paid. Robot makers pay for it as a part of the machines they sell to firms, and any of them could fit it, so nothing extra is kept.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Tagalong: A legged robotic pack that follows its owner and carries their load.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tagalong

In the Bowl, John Varley · 1976

A legged robotic pack that follows its owner and carries their load.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A legged pack that follows its owner and carries the load is a convenience for walkers and travellers.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and many makers could build one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spider Space Elevator Test Vehicle: A robotic climber that travels along an orbital tower's cable to check it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spider Space Elevator Test Vehicle

The Fountains of Paradise, Arthur C. Clarke · 1978

A robotic climber that travels along an orbital tower's cable to check it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A climber that runs along a tower's cable to check it is an inspection tool for that structure alone.

Who is paid. The tower's operator buys it, and many makers could build such a climber, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Coal Mole: A robot that bores through an asteroid and turns its interior into usable feedstock.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Coal Mole

The Web Between the Worlds, Charles Sheffield · 1979

A robot that bores through an asteroid and turns its interior into usable feedstock.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Boring through an asteroid and turning it into feedstock with no crew would cut the cost of mining in space.

Who is paid. Mining and building firms buy them, and the heavy-equipment makers who already supply those firms can copy the idea and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Marvin the Robot: A gloomy humanoid robot produced by a satirical corporation's sales department.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Marvin the Robot

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams · 1979

A gloomy humanoid robot produced by a satirical corporation's sales department.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. The description gives a humanlike robot and a mood but no job, so it is assumed to be the general worker of the stories, able to do most kinds of human work.

Who is paid. Firms buy them as labour, and since many could build such bodies once shown how, the large manufacturers with factories and service networks collect what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Service Drones: Small flying robots that carry out building and maintenance work.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Service Drones

The Two Faces of Tomorrow, James P. Hogan · 1979

Small flying robots that carry out building and maintenance work.

built in the 2010s, about 40 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Small flying robots that build and maintain would cut the labour cost of construction and upkeep.

Who is paid. Builders and property owners buy them, and since many could make them the construction-equipment makers with service networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spider: A construction robot that spins out cable and crawls along it to build in orbit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spider

The Web Between the Worlds, Charles Sheffield · 1979

A construction robot that spins out cable and crawls along it to build in orbit.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A robot that spins cable and crawls along it to build in orbit would cut the cost of large structures in space, assuming such building is done.

Who is paid. Firms building in orbit buy it, and since others could copy it the makers that already supply construction and space equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Whale Waldo: A powered whale-shaped exosuit that copies and magnifies its wearer's movements.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Whale Waldo

Sundiver, David Brin · 1979

A powered whale-shaped exosuit that copies and magnifies its wearer's movements.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A powered suit in the shape of a whale that magnifies its wearer's movements serves a few divers and researchers.

Who is paid. Research groups and diving firms are assumed to buy it, and powered suits could be built by many makers once the idea is shown.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Medicine, biotech and longevity · 28
Illustration of Killalc Pills: Tablets that cancel the effects of drinking alcohol.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Killalc Pills

The Stainless Steel Rat's Revenge, Harry Harrison · 1970

Tablets that cancel the effects of drinking alcohol.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Staying sober while drinking is a convenience for drinkers, not a need.

Who is paid. Drinkers would buy it for themselves, and a new drug is protected from copying for a while, so its maker keeps what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Selektrogel: A shop-bought gel that lets parents choose a baby's sex at conception.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Selektrogel

And All The Stars A Stage, James Blish · 1971

A shop-bought gel that lets parents choose a baby's sex at conception.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Choosing a baby's sex at home is something a great many parents would pay for.

Who is paid. Parents buy it in shops, and I assumed it is protected like a new medicine, so its maker keeps what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Artificial Muscles: Synthetic fibres that stand in for natural muscle.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Artificial Muscles

Cyborg, Martin Caidin · 1972

Synthetic fibres that stand in for natural muscle.

built since, date unclear

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Fibres that pull like muscle would serve artificial limbs and, I assumed, machines of many kinds as well.

Who is paid. Makers of limbs and machines would buy the fibres, and other materials firms could learn to spin them, so established materials makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Atlotl/Gibiril Regimen: A therapy said to redirect bodily energy to help regrow lost tissue.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Atlotl/Gibiril Regimen

The Godmakers, Frank Herbert · 1972

A therapy said to redirect bodily energy to help regrow lost tissue.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Regrowing lost or ruined tissue would change what hospitals can do for the badly injured.

Who is paid. I assumed hospitals buy and run it; once it worked other makers could copy it, so established medical equipment firms and hospitals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Bionic Arm: A prosthetic arm that moves and responds much like a natural one.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bionic Arm

Cyborg, Martin Caidin · 1972

A prosthetic arm that moves and responds much like a natural one.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A limb that works like a natural one matters greatly to people who have lost one, but they are a small share of everyone.

Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and several firms could build such limbs, so established makers of artificial limbs collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Bionic Legs: Rebuilt legs that outperform the natural ones.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bionic Legs

Cyborg, Martin Caidin · 1972

Rebuilt legs that outperform the natural ones.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Legs better than natural ones matter greatly to people who have lost theirs, and I assumed few healthy people would swap their own.

Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and several firms could build such limbs, so established makers of artificial limbs collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Crechepod: An enclosed medical capsule that sustains life and regrows damaged tissue.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Crechepod

The Godmakers, Frank Herbert · 1972

An enclosed medical capsule that sustains life and regrows damaged tissue.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Regrowing lost or ruined tissue would change what hospitals can do for the badly injured.

Who is paid. I assumed hospitals buy and run it; once it worked other makers could copy it, so established medical equipment firms and hospitals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cryosleep: Freezing a living body to pause its life processes until revival.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cryosleep

Flight of Exiles, Ben Bova · 1972

Freezing a living body to pause its life processes until revival.

built since, date unclear

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Putting people safely into long dormancy would make very long journeys possible and give hospitals time to treat the gravely ill.

Who is paid. I assumed carriers and hospitals buy it; the method could be copied once known, so the firms that already run ships and hospitals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cyborg: A person fused with machine parts that extend the body's abilities.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cyborg

Cyborg, Martin Caidin · 1972

A person fused with machine parts that extend the body's abilities.

built since, date unclear

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the fitting of machine parts to the body, which taken together covers replacement eyes, limbs and organs and is an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and other firms could copy the parts, so established implant makers and the hospitals that fit them collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hubrizine: A pill that makes the user more awake and puts them in a brighter mood.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hubrizine

We Can Build You, Philip K. Dick · 1972

A pill that makes the user more awake and puts them in a brighter mood.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A pill for wakefulness and a brighter mood would be used by a great many people.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and stimulants of this kind are old chemistry many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Procreative Stump: A grim fictional practice of keeping a body alive solely to carry pregnancies.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Procreative Stump

Hellstrom's Hive, Frank Herbert · 1972

A grim fictional practice of keeping a body alive solely to carry pregnancies.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is a grim practice nobody may buy or use.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Artificial Gravity-Assisted Childbirth: Using a generated gravity field to ease and speed up giving birth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Artificial Gravity-Assisted Childbirth

Time Enough For Love, Robert Heinlein · 1973

Using a generated gravity field to ease and speed up giving birth.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Easier births would be welcome, but this is a side use of a gravity machine and other aids to birth already exist.

Who is paid. I assumed hospitals buy it; whoever makes gravity machines for other uses could supply it, so those firms and the hospitals collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ultramicrominiature Waldo: A device that scales a surgeon's hand motions down to tiny precise movements.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ultramicrominiature Waldo

Time Enough For Love, Robert Heinlein · 1973

A device that scales a surgeon's hand motions down to tiny precise movements.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A device that makes the surgeon's own movements finer improves some operations but leaves the surgeon in place, so it is a niche.

Who is paid. Hospitals would buy it, and other toolmakers could copy it, so established makers of surgical instruments collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of KR-3: A fictional mind-altering drug that plays a key role in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

KR-3

Flow My Tears, The Policeman Said, Philip K. Dick · 1974

A fictional mind-altering drug that plays a key role in the story.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description gives only that it alters the mind, so I assumed it would be taken for pleasure by a few.

Who is paid. Users would buy it, most likely unlawfully, and such drugs can be made by many hands, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Numbitol: A cream or spray that numbs the skin.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Numbitol

The Mote in God's Eye, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1974

A cream or spray that numbs the skin.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cream that numbs the skin is a convenience of a kind already widely made.

Who is paid. Shoppers pay, and many firms can make it so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Placental Decanters: Engineered flawless human bodies fitted with implants so others can operate them remotely.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Placental Decanters

The Girl Who Was Plugged In, James Tiptree, Jr. · 1974

Engineered flawless human bodies fitted with implants so others can operate them remotely.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Operated bodies are a banned niche; assumed a few firms use them for promotion.

Who is paid. Firms pay, and established makers of implants collect since the fittings can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Stimtab: A pill that holds off sleep and sharpens attention over extended periods.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stimtab

The Forever War, Joe Haldeman · 1974

A pill that holds off sleep and sharpens attention over extended periods.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Staying alert without sleep for long stretches is something a great many workers, drivers and students would use.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and stimulants of this kind are old chemistry many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Modded Dog: A breed of dog engineered for higher intelligence that passes it on to its pups.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Modded Dog

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

A breed of dog engineered for higher intelligence that passes it on to its pups.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cleverer dog is a prized pet or working animal, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Owners pay, and because the dogs pass the trait on, established breeders collect instead of the originator.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Anabolic Protoplaser: A medical tool that heals wounds with beams of light.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Anabolic Protoplaser

Spock, Messiah!, Theodore Cogswell (w/C. Spano · 1976

A medical tool that heals wounds with beams of light.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Closing wounds with light would replace stitches and shorten recovery across surgery and emergency care.

Who is paid. Hospitals and clinics would buy it, and other makers could copy the tool, so established surgical equipment firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Empty Man: A living body whose original personality has been erased, shown in the story as a punishment.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Empty Man

A World Out of Time, Larry Niven · 1976

A living body whose original personality has been erased, shown in the story as a punishment.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.

Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ixian Sight Mask: A wearable device that gives vision to blind people.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ixian Sight Mask

Children of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1976

A wearable device that gives vision to blind people.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Giving sight back to blind people is worth an industry of its own, though most people would never need it.

Who is paid. Patients would pay, mostly through insurers or health services, and once the design was known other device makers could copy it, so established implant makers and eye clinics collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Robot Surgeon: A machine that performs operations on patients without human control.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Robot Surgeon

The Bicentennial Man, Isaac Asimov · 1976

A machine that performs operations on patients without human control.

built in 2000, 24 years after it was imagined

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Operations done by machine would change the costs and reach of surgery.

Who is paid. Hospitals would buy it, and other firms could build such machines, so established makers of surgical equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Young-Forever: A treatment for endless youth paired with a fix for the resulting population growth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Young-Forever

A World Out of Time, Larry Niven · 1976

A treatment for endless youth paired with a fix for the resulting population growth.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Holding off old age meets about the deepest need there is, and nearly everyone alive would want it.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and I assumed it is a new medicine protected from copying for a long while, so its maker keeps much of the gain.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Javelin: A person surgically and genetically adapted to live comfortably in open space.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Javelin

The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977

A person surgically and genetically adapted to live comfortably in open space.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The name is of the person, so the thing judged is the surgery and gene work that fit a body for open space, which serves the few who work there.

Who is paid. I assumed firms working in space pay for their crews; other surgeons and laboratories could learn the work, so established clinics collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Substance D: A fictional illicit street drug central to the story's themes of addiction and surveillance.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Substance D

A Scanner Darkly, Philip K. Dick · 1977

A fictional illicit street drug central to the story's themes of addiction and surveillance.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description promises only an unlawful drug taken for pleasure, which gives its users nothing beyond what such drugs already give.

Who is paid. Users would buy it unlawfully, and I assumed such drugs can be made by many hands, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Symb: A partner organism living with its human host and supplying the energy that keeps them alive.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Symb

The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977

A partner organism living with its human host and supplying the energy that keeps them alive.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. I assumed it serves the few people who choose to live in open space, which is a niche.

Who is paid. The people who wear it would pay, and a living partner can be bred on by others, so established breeders and suppliers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Uniflesh: Synthetic tissue that replaces skin and the soft layers beneath it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Uniflesh

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

Synthetic tissue that replaces skin and the soft layers beneath it.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Man-made skin helps people with burns and bad wounds, which is an important but narrow part of medicine.

Who is paid. Hospitals and clinics would buy it, and the firms that already supply wound dressings could all make it, so they collect a modest margin.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of CORA - Coronary Alarm: A worn or implanted heart monitor that warns its wearer of an impending cardiac event.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

CORA - Coronary Alarm

The Fountains of Paradise, Arthur C. Clarke · 1978

A worn or implanted heart monitor that warns its wearer of an impending cardiac event.

already existed before the story (the 1960s)

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Warning of a heart attack before it strikes would save many lives among older people.

Who is paid. People would buy it for themselves, and many electronics firms could build such a monitor, so established makers of wearable and heart devices collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Mind and neurotechnology · 14
Illustration of Jack In: Linking one's nervous system directly into a computer-made virtual world.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Jack In

Tower of Glass, Robert Silverberg · 1970

Linking one's nervous system directly into a computer-made virtual world.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A link from the nerves into made-up worlds would do what screens and games do now but far more fully, worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Ordinary people would pay for the implant and the service, and the firms that already make devices and run networks could copy it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sleep Set (Sleep Headset): A headset that puts its wearer into deep sleep electronically.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sleep Set (Sleep Headset)

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

A headset that puts its wearer into deep sleep electronically.

built in 1975, 5 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Deep sleep at the touch of a switch would be worth an industry of its own to the many people who sleep badly.

Who is paid. People who sleep badly would buy it for themselves, and the gear is simple enough for many makers to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tasp: A fictional handheld device that triggers pleasure in another person's brain from afar.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tasp

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

A fictional handheld device that triggers pleasure in another person's brain from afar.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Triggering pleasure in someone else from afar is a way of swaying or taming a few people, not a treat they chose.

Who is paid. It is aimed at another person, so I judge it as a tool of control; though banned in the story a state would buy it, and its usual suppliers would collect because it could be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Chemical Orders: Compounds released into the air or body that act as signals steering what people do.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chemical Orders

Hellstrom's Hive, Frank Herbert · 1972

Compounds released into the air or body that act as signals steering what people do.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.

Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of P-Terminal Implant: A brain implant with its own power and controls that stimulates reward regions.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

P-Terminal Implant

The Terminal Man, Michael Crichton · 1972

A brain implant with its own power and controls that stimulates reward regions.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Direct stimulation of the reward regions would draw a large and steady demand, as strong drugs do.

Who is paid. Users would buy it for themselves, legal or not, and it is simple enough that many makers could supply it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hypno-Encyclopedic Techniques: Methods for sorting and managing memories across a very long life.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hypno-Encyclopedic Techniques

Time Enough For Love, Robert Heinlein · 1973

Methods for sorting and managing memories across a very long life.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Sorting the memories of a very long life only matters to people who live that long, a niche unless long life comes too.

Who is paid. The long-lived would pay for it themselves, and it is a method any trained person could offer, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Implanted Interface With Retinal Nerves: Circuitry wired into the eye's nerves that captures what the person sees.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Implanted Interface With Retinal Nerves

The Continuous Katherine Mortenhoe (The Unsleeping Eye), D.G. Compton · 1973

Circuitry wired into the eye's nerves that captures what the person sees.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A person whose eyes act as a camera is a niche tool for filming and watching.

Who is paid. I assumed broadcasters pay for it, as in the story, and once one maker had wired a camera to the eye others could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Eccentric Projection: Operating another body from a distance as if it were one's own.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Eccentric Projection

The Girl Who Was Plugged In, James Tiptree, Jr. · 1974

Operating another body from a distance as if it were one's own.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Working a far-off body as if it were your own would let people do physical work anywhere without going there.

Who is paid. Firms would pay to put workers and performers where they are needed, and once the link existed others could copy it, so no seller keeps much; unlike the thought-steered machines this gives a whole body to live in.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Data-Retrieval Mode: Extracting thoughts and pictures stored in someone's mind.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Data-Retrieval Mode

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

Extracting thoughts and pictures stored in someone's mind.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Pulling memories and thoughts out of an unwilling head would change how crimes are solved and secrets are kept.

Who is paid. The description speaks of extracting, so I assumed it is done to a subject by police, courts and spy services, and the firms that already supply them could copy the machine and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of RNA Shots: Injections made from a skilled person's tissue that pass on their knowledge.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

RNA Shots

A World Out of Time, Larry Niven · 1976

Injections made from a skilled person's tissue that pass on their knowledge.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Taking on a skilled person's knowledge by injection would replace years of schooling and training for most people.

Who is paid. Learners would pay for the shots themselves, and assuming the tissue can be grown in bulk many makers could supply them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cephalochromoscope (Cephscope): A scanner that shows a person's brain activity as patterns on a screen.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cephalochromoscope (Cephscope)

A Scanner Darkly, Philip K. Dick · 1977

A scanner that shows a person's brain activity as patterns on a screen.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Watching brain activity as patterns on a screen is a pastime or a simple clinic tool.

Who is paid. I assumed people buy it for home use as in the story, and such a scanner is easy to copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Memory Recording: Capturing the full content of a person's mind and life experience for storage.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Memory Recording

The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977

Capturing the full content of a person's mind and life experience for storage.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Keeping a copy of a mind so the person can be brought back would take away the finality of death for anyone who could have it.

Who is paid. People would pay for themselves and their families, and once one firm had done it others could, so the hospitals and medical firms people already trust would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Taprisiot: A living partner organism enabling instant mind-to-mind calls across the galaxy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Taprisiot

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

A living partner organism enabling instant mind-to-mind calls across the galaxy.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Instant calls across the galaxy would be worth an industry of its own wherever people are spread among the stars, which ordinary telephones could not serve.

Who is paid. Callers would pay for each call; the description does not say the organism comes from a single source, so I assumed it can be bred like other living tools here, and the carriers that already run call networks would keep the stock and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Taprisiot Monitor Bead: An ingestible device that captures and relays a person's thoughts for a set period.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Taprisiot Monitor Bead

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

An ingestible device that captures and relays a person's thoughts for a set period.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Capturing and passing on your own thoughts for a while is a convenience for reports and records.

Who is paid. It is swallowed, so I assume the wearer is willing and buys it; many makers could copy it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Transport and mobility · 25
Illustration of Crash Balloons: Airbags that inflate to cushion and restrain a rider in a crash.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Crash Balloons

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

Airbags that inflate to cushion and restrain a rider in a crash.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Cushions that save riders in a crash matter greatly to those riders, but they are a safety feature inside a vehicle, as the other safety features here are.

Who is paid. Drivers pay for them with the car, and the parts suppliers that already sell to the car makers collect because the design is easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Flycycle: A flying motorbike that also carries a kitchen and automated medical care.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flycycle

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

A flying motorbike that also carries a kitchen and automated medical care.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A flying motorbike that carries its rider wherever they please would be an industry of its own as the motorbike is; the kitchen and medical kit aboard add comfort rather than reach.

Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Flywheel Cycle: A motorbike that runs on energy stored in a spinning wheel.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flywheel Cycle

The Stainless Steel Rat's Revenge, Harry Harrison · 1970

A motorbike that runs on energy stored in a spinning wheel.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A motorbike that stores its energy in a spinning wheel is another way to power a bike, not a new use for it.

Who is paid. Riders buy it, and a flywheel is plain engineering many firms could copy, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Riding Robot: A two-legged walking machine that carries one rider.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Riding Robot

The Stainless Steel Rat's Revenge, Harry Harrison · 1970

A two-legged walking machine that carries one rider.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A walking mount for a lone rider goes where wheels cannot, which is a niche beside cars and bikes.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and many workshops could build it once it is shown to work, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sonic Fold: A force field that shapes airflow around a flying vehicle.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sonic Fold

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

A force field that shapes airflow around a flying vehicle.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Shaping the air round a flying vehicle gives a smoother, quieter flight, which is a feature.

Who is paid. Airlines and other operators pay for it through the aircraft, and the established aircraft builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Squib: A basic small vehicle for getting around on land.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Squib

Our Friends From Frolix 8, Philip K. Dick · 1970

A basic small vehicle for getting around on land.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A basic small land vehicle is a cheap runabout, which I take to be a niche beside the ordinary car.

Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Stepping Discs: Open pads that teleport anyone standing on them to a paired pad.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stepping Discs

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

Open pads that teleport anyone standing on them to a paired pad.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Instant travel from place to place would end most journeys by road, rail and air and change where most people live and work.

Who is paid. The carriers that run the network buy the machines and charge travellers for each trip, and since nothing described stops a second builder, the firms that already own sites, power and travellers' custom collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Transmat: A machine that moves people instantly from one place to another.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Transmat

Tower of Glass, Robert Silverberg · 1970

A machine that moves people instantly from one place to another.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Instant travel from place to place would end most journeys by road, rail and air and change where most people live and work.

Who is paid. The carriers that run the network buy the machines and charge travellers for each trip, and since nothing described stops a second builder, the firms that already own sites, power and travellers' custom collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Displacement Booth: A booth that moves people instantly to another location.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Displacement Booth

Flash Crowd, Larry Niven · 1972

A booth that moves people instantly to another location.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A vast prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Instant travel between any places would change where most people live and work and replace nearly all other transport.

Who is paid. The carriers that run the network buy the machines and charge travellers for each trip, and since nothing described stops a second builder, the firms that already own sites, power and travellers' custom collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Dragonfly Sky-Bike: A pedal-powered ultralight flying machine.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dragonfly Sky-Bike

Rendezvous With Rama, Arthur C. Clarke · 1972

A pedal-powered ultralight flying machine.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Flying on muscle alone is a sport for the fit, not a way of getting about.

Who is paid. Hobbyists buy it, and any maker of light frames and wings could build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Go-Buggy: A vehicle that travels only on the ground.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Go-Buggy

The Godmakers, Frank Herbert · 1972

A vehicle that travels only on the ground.

built since, date unclear

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. An ordinary ground vehicle, judged as the motor car, changed where most people live, work and shop.

Who is paid. Drivers buy it, and since any firm can design a car, the makers with the factories, dealers and brands collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Collapsar Jump: Instant travel between stars by way of collapsed stellar remnants.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Collapsar Jump

The Forever War, Joe Haldeman · 1974

Instant travel between stars by way of collapsed stellar remnants.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. I assume the ships that use these natural shortcuts are what is sold, and reaching other stars would found an industry of its own, though few would make the trip.

Who is paid. Carriers and shipping firms buy the ships, as they do in the other star drive entries, and once the drive is known others could build it, so the established ship builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tramline: A fixed route between stars along which instant jumps become possible.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tramline

The Mote in God's Eye, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1974

A fixed route between stars along which instant jumps become possible.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A fixed route between stars is a feature of space in the story and not something built or sold.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so there is no buyer and no seller.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Automatic Control Car: A car that drives itself.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Automatic Control Car

Imperial Earth, Arthur C. Clarke · 1976

A car that drives itself.

built in the 1970s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A car that needs no driver gives back the hours spent at the wheel and opens car travel to people who cannot drive, which is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Owners buy it, and since several firms can build a driving system once it is shown to work, the car makers that already own factories, dealers and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Bubble Car: A self-driving car that hovers above the road.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bubble Car

A World Out of Time, Larry Niven · 1976

A self-driving car that hovers above the road.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A car that needs no driver gives back the hours spent at the wheel and is worth an industry of its own; hovering above the road adds little to that.

Who is paid. Owners buy it, and since several firms can build a driving system once it is shown to work, the car makers that already own factories, dealers and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Dray-Fish: Big fish trained to tow floating houses.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dray-Fish

The Moon Moth, Jack Vance · 1976

Big fish trained to tow floating houses.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Trained fish that tow floating houses serve only people who live on the water.

Who is paid. Houseboat dwellers buy or hire them, and anyone who can train the fish can sell them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Gravity-assisted Subway: An underground train that falls through deep tunnels to cross between continents quickly.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gravity-assisted Subway

A World Out of Time, Larry Niven · 1976

An underground train that falls through deep tunnels to cross between continents quickly.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Trains that fall through deep tunnels would cross long distances fast on little fuel, changing the costs of long-distance travel.

Who is paid. Governments pay for tunnels on this scale, and the tunnelling and railway builders that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Landspeeder: A fast hovering ground car that floats above flat terrain.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Landspeeder

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

A fast hovering ground car that floats above flat terrain.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The description gives a hovering car held to flat ground and names no cancelling of gravity, so I judge it with the cushion craft as a niche beside the ordinary car.

Who is paid. Owners buy it for themselves, and many builders can make a craft that hovers low over flat ground, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sandcrawler: A giant tracked vehicle serving as a roving home on desert plains.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sandcrawler

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

A giant tracked vehicle serving as a roving home on desert plains.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A giant roving home for desert plains suits a few people who live and work there.

Who is paid. I assume the people who live in it buy it, and any maker of heavy tracked vehicles could build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Skyhook: A hybrid aircraft combining an airship with winged flight.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Skyhook

West of Honor, Jerry Pournelle · 1976

A hybrid aircraft combining an airship with winged flight.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A lighter-than-air craft is slow and carries little beside aircraft and trains, so it stays a niche; adding wings helps it carry more.

Who is paid. Operators buy it, and airships are simple enough for many builders to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Grapple Tracks: Machinery that automatically stores and retrieves cars in a parking garage.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Grapple Tracks

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

Machinery that automatically stores and retrieves cars in a parking garage.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Machinery that stores and fetches cars fits more of them into a garage, which is a saving for the owner of the garage.

Who is paid. Garage owners buy it, and it is ordinary machinery many firms can build, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Gravity Train: An underground railway that uses falling to gain speed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gravity Train

The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977

An underground railway that uses falling to gain speed.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Trains that fall through deep tunnels would cross long distances fast on little fuel, changing the costs of long-distance travel.

Who is paid. Governments pay for tunnels on this scale, and the tunnelling and railway builders that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of High Kavalaan Aircar: An armed flying utility car used by a warrior culture in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

High Kavalaan Aircar

Dying of the Light, George RR Martin · 1977

An armed flying utility car used by a warrior culture in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A private vehicle that flies its owner over the roads would be an industry of its own, though it mostly replaces trips people already make by car.

Who is paid. I assume the warriors buy their own craft as others buy a car, and the weapons do not make it harder to copy, so the vehicle makers that already have factories and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Skitter: A two-seat car steered by a bar and stored in an automated garage.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Skitter

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

A two-seat car steered by a bar and stored in an automated garage.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A small car steered by a bar is a compact car, which is a niche beside the ordinary car.

Who is paid. Owners buy it as they buy a car, and once it works many firms could build it, so the vehicle makers that already have factories, dealers and repair networks collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Sky-Scoot: A small sheet of gravity-defying material a rider stands on to fly.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sky-Scoot

Dying of the Light, George RR Martin · 1977

A small sheet of gravity-defying material a rider stands on to fly.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Free personal flight with no limit stated would be an industry of its own, replacing many trips now made by car.

Who is paid. Riders buy it for themselves, and a light craft like this could be built by many workshops once the trick is known, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Energy and power · 1
Illustration of Batacitor: An electricity store that can be filled almost instantly.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Batacitor

The Fabulous Riverboat, Philip Jose Farmer · 1971

An electricity store that can be filled almost instantly.

built since, date unclear

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A store that fills almost at once would remove the main drawback of electric vehicles and tools.

Who is paid. Vehicle and device makers buy it, and since storage recipes tend to be copied the firms that already own the big factories collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Materials, manufacturing and construction · 26
Illustration of Bio-Fabric: Living clothing that continually reshapes itself to suit its wearer.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bio-Fabric

Say Goodby to the Wind, J.G. Ballard · 1970

Living clothing that continually reshapes itself to suit its wearer.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Clothing that reshapes itself is a pleasure and a fashion, not a need.

Who is paid. People buy it to wear, and living cloth can be bred by others, so fashion houses with known names and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Flashlight Laser: A handheld beam tool used both to light the way and to cut.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flashlight Laser

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

A handheld beam tool used both to light the way and to cut.

already existed before the story (1965)

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A hand tool that both lights and cuts is a convenience for workers and travellers.

Who is paid. I assumed it is bought mainly as a work tool, and many toolmakers can build such a cutter, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Nearleather: Synthetic imitation leather.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nearleather

What's Become of Screwloose?, Ron Goulart · 1970

Synthetic imitation leather.

already existed before the story (the 1960s)

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Man-made leather replaces one costly material in shoes, bags and seats.

Who is paid. People buy the goods made from it, and many chemical firms can make such a material, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Scrith: A megastructure building material of almost impossible strength.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Scrith

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

A megastructure building material of almost impossible strength.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A material of almost impossible strength would let far larger structures be built and change heavy construction.

Who is paid. Builders buy it, and great strength alone does not stop a second maker, so the big materials firms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Shadow Square Wire: An extremely thin, light and strong filament.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Shadow Square Wire

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

An extremely thin, light and strong filament.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. An extremely thin, light and strong filament would change the cost of cables, bridges, aircraft and lifting things to space.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Impact Suit: A flexible bodysuit that stiffens into armour when struck hard.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Impact Suit

The Flying Sorcerers, David Gerrold (w/L, Niven · 1971

A flexible bodysuit that stiffens into armour when struck hard.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A suit that hardens when struck protects those who face blows or falls, which is a niche.

Who is paid. I assumed armies, police and space crews are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold their equipment contracts would make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of City of Glass: A whole city built from distinctive structural glass and ceramic.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

City of Glass

The Godmakers, Frank Herbert · 1972

A whole city built from distinctive structural glass and ceramic.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A city is not a product, so I judged the structural glass it is built from, which is one building material among many.

Who is paid. Builders buy the glass and ceramic, and established makers of building materials can all supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Armor Cloth: An exceptionally resistant man-made textile.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Armor Cloth

The Mote in God's Eye, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1974

An exceptionally resistant man-made textile.

built in the 1970s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A very resistant cloth protects people in risky jobs, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Employers buy it for their workers, and the fibre and workwear firms that already supply them make it without any one keeping others out.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Metal Paste: A squeezable conductive metal compound dispensed from a tube.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Metal Paste

The Mote in God's Eye, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1974

A squeezable conductive metal compound dispensed from a tube.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Conductive metal from a tube is a handy repair and assembly supply.

Who is paid. Workshops and electronics makers buy it, and many chemical firms can match a paste, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Superconductor of Heat: A light metal that soaks up heat without its temperature rising.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Superconductor of Heat

The Mote in God's Eye, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1974

A light metal that soaks up heat without its temperature rising.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A light metal that soaks up heat without warming would change the cooling of engines, machines and electronics.

Who is paid. Manufacturers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Personal Smelter: A home device that melts scrap metal into a bar of certified worth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Personal Smelter

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

A home device that melts scrap metal into a bar of certified worth.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Melting scrap at home into a bar is a convenience for a few people.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, and a small furnace is easy to make; I assumed the certifying is not held by one firm.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Bubble City: Large undersea domes housing whole communities.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bubble City

My Name is Legion, Roger Zelazny · 1976

Large undersea domes housing whole communities.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Whole communities living on the seabed would open a new kind of place to settle, which is worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. A dome that keeps the sea out shelters everyone inside at once, so a government pays for it, and the marine builders that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Nemourlon: A synthetic material used to make protective body armour.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nemourlon

West of Honor, Jerry Pournelle · 1976

A synthetic material used to make protective body armour.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A material for body armour serves soldiers and guards, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Armies and police pay, assuming they are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold armour contracts supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sandtrout Glove: A glove made of living creatures that cling to the hand.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sandtrout Glove

Children of Dune, Frank Herbert · 1976

A glove made of living creatures that cling to the hand.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A living glove is a curiosity or a piece of protective wear for a few; the description names no wider use.

Who is paid. People buy it for themselves, I assume, and living creatures breed and spread, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Chameleon Cloth: Fabric that shifts its colour and pattern to blend into the background.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Chameleon Cloth

Dying of the Light, George RR Martin · 1977

Fabric that shifts its colour and pattern to blend into the background.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Cloth that blends into the background helps soldiers and hunters hide but still leaves them visible up close, so it is a niche.

Who is paid. Armies are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold uniform and equipment contracts would make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Glowstone: A stone that soaks up daylight and glows through the night.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Glowstone

Dying of the Light, George RR Martin · 1977

A stone that soaks up daylight and glows through the night.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A stone that glows at night is a pleasant way to light paths and rooms without power.

Who is paid. People buy it for homes and gardens, and assuming the stone is common, many quarries could sell it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Trimagniscope: A scanner that shows a clear slice through the inside of any object.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Trimagniscope

Inherit the Stars, James P. Hogan · 1977

A scanner that shows a clear slice through the inside of any object.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Seeing a clear slice through any object helps inspection and repair, which is a specialist tool.

Who is paid. Factories and laboratories buy it, and the method can be copied, so established instrument makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of 1D Diamond Crystal: An unbroken diamond thread only a few atoms across, akin to a carbon nanotube.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

1D Diamond Crystal

The Fountains of Paradise, Arthur C. Clarke · 1978

An unbroken diamond thread only a few atoms across, akin to a carbon nanotube.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A thread far stronger than steel for its weight would change the cost of cables, bridges, aircraft and lifting things to space.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Deposition (3D Printing): A fabrication method that assembles any object up from individual molecules.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Deposition (3D Printing)

Assassin, James P. Hogan · 1978

A fabrication method that assembles any object up from individual molecules.

built in 1984, 6 years after it was imagined

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Building any object from molecules, far beyond today's printers, would change how nearly all goods are made.

Who is paid. Assuming a home or shop machine, people buy it and its feedstock, and a machine that makes anything can make more of itself, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Hyperfilament: An ultra-strong ribbon or thread with enormous resistance to pulling forces.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Hyperfilament

The Fountains of Paradise, Arthur C. Clarke · 1978

An ultra-strong ribbon or thread with enormous resistance to pulling forces.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A thread with enormous pulling strength would change the cost of cables, bridges, aircraft and lifting things to space.

Who is paid. Builders and vehicle makers buy it, and once the method is known the big materials firms with plants and customers make it and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Spinnerettes: A reel device that pays out and rewinds an ultra-fine filament.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Spinnerettes

The Fountains of Paradise, Arthur C. Clarke · 1978

A reel device that pays out and rewinds an ultra-fine filament.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A reel for a very fine thread is a tool that goes with the thread, not an industry.

Who is paid. Users of the thread buy it, and any toolmaker can build a reel, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Structural Scanning: A scanner that captures a detailed three-dimensional map of an object's inner makeup.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Structural Scanning

Assassin, James P. Hogan · 1978

A scanner that captures a detailed three-dimensional map of an object's inner makeup.

already existed before the story (1972)

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Mapping the inside of an object in detail helps inspection and design, which is a specialist tool.

Who is paid. Factories and laboratories buy it, and the method can be copied, so established instrument makers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Bulerite: A miracle construction material that turns out to carry concealed drawbacks.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bulerite

Macrolife, George Zebrowski · 1979

A miracle construction material that turns out to carry concealed drawbacks.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged on its promise as a wonder building material it would change building costs, though the story says hidden flaws spoil it.

Who is paid. Builders buy it, and a material recipe gets copied, so established makers of building materials collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Conductive Film: A sprayable coating that forms a wire able to carry a signal.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Conductive Film

The Face, Jack Vance · 1979

A sprayable coating that forms a wire able to carry a signal.

built in the 1990s, about 20 years after it was imagined

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A spray that lays down a wire is handy for repairs and electronics, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. Electronics makers and repairers buy it, and many chemical firms can mix such a spray.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Gundarium: An exceptionally tough composite used to armour giant piloted machines.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gundarium

Mobile Suit Gundam, Yoshiyuki Tomino · 1979

An exceptionally tough composite used to armour giant piloted machines.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A far tougher armour for war machines would change what an army's machines can survive.

Who is paid. Unlike the general-purpose alloys, this is armour, so armies pay and the firms that already hold weapons contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Receptor Tape: A thin bendable strip that works as a sound pickup.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Receptor Tape

The Face, Jack Vance · 1979

A thin bendable strip that works as a sound pickup.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A bendable strip that picks up sound is a handy part for recording and listening gear.

Who is paid. Equipment makers buy it, and many electronics firms can make such a strip, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Weapons and warfare · 28
Illustration of Blackout Gas: A fictional incapacitating gas used against people in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Blackout Gas

The Stainless Steel Rat's Revenge, Harry Harrison · 1970

A fictional incapacitating gas used against people in the story.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Assuming it is a gas for use on people in war, it falls under the same ban as poison gas and no one may buy it.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Gaussrifle: A fictional electromagnetic firearm used in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Gaussrifle

The Stainless Steel Rat's Revenge, Harry Harrison · 1970

A fictional electromagnetic firearm used in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A gun driven by magnets throws its shot faster but does the job guns already do.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Light-Sword: A laser beam set up for slicing through materials.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Light-Sword

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

A laser beam set up for slicing through materials.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A hand beam for slicing materials is one cutting tool among many that workshops already have.

Who is paid. Assuming it is used as a tool, workshops and builders pay, and cutting beams rest on known science that many firms can make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Nerve Machine: A fictional torture device portrayed as an instrument of cruelty.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nerve Machine

The Stainless Steel Rat's Revenge, Harry Harrison · 1970

A fictional torture device portrayed as an instrument of cruelty.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It exists only to inflict suffering, and no one may lawfully buy or use such a thing.

Who is paid. Torture devices are outlawed for everyone, governments included, so nothing is sold and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Screamer: A fictional sound-based weapon used in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Screamer

The Stainless Steel Rat's Revenge, Harry Harrison · 1970

A fictional sound-based weapon used in the story.

built in the 2000s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A weapon that drives people off or wears them down with sound, smell, gas or words fills a narrow job for police and armies.

Who is paid. Police and armies pay, and these devices are easy to copy, so the suppliers that already sell them equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Slaver Disintegrator: A fictional matter-destroying device, sometimes used for excavation.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Slaver Disintegrator

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

A fictional matter-destroying device, sometimes used for excavation.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a device that destroys whatever it is turned on leaves no armour, wall or hull able to protect, and can dig as well.

Who is paid. Assuming it is a weapon first, since the description gives digging as an occasional use, armies buy it, and assuming rival makers learn to copy it the established arms suppliers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Variable Sword: A fictional adjustable blade weapon used in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Variable Sword

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

A fictional adjustable blade weapon used in the story.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A blade that can be adjusted is a curiosity for a few buyers, since a sword loses to a gun.

Who is paid. As with other blades, a few people buy one for themselves, and assuming others can copy it once one is built, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Stunwand: A fictional handheld stunning weapon used in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stunwand

Hellstrom's Hive, Frank Herbert · 1972

A fictional handheld stunning weapon used in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a weapon that surely stops a person at a distance without harming them does what no gun can, and police and guards everywhere would carry it in place of firearms.

Who is paid. Police forces and armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers could copy it once it was shown, the suppliers that already hold their contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of The Krang: A vast alien instrument in the story that doubles as a weapon.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

The Krang

The Tar-Aiym Krang, Alan Dean Foster · 1972

A vast alien instrument in the story that doubles as a weapon.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. This is a single ancient alien instrument found in the story, marked as not a technology, so there is no product to price.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so there is no payer and no seller.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Assault Ship: A fictional expendable military spacecraft used to deliver troops in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Assault Ship

The Forever War, Joe Haldeman · 1974

A fictional expendable military spacecraft used to deliver troops in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Assuming wars are fought in space, warships for it would be an industry of their own.

Who is paid. Only governments field war fleets, and the few yards already able to build large spacecraft would win the orders.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Flesh Gun: A fictional weapon of extreme cruelty used in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flesh Gun

The Computer Connection, Alfred Bester · 1974

A fictional weapon of extreme cruelty used in the story.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. As described it is a weapon made to cause suffering beyond what fighting needs, which the laws of war forbid to every army.

Who is paid. Such weapons are outlawed for everyone, governments included, so nothing is sold and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Laser Finger: A fictional weapon attachment on a soldier's powered armour in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Laser Finger

The Forever War, Jack C. Haldeman · 1974

A fictional weapon attachment on a soldier's powered armour in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Fitted to one soldier's armour, it does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Powered Suit with Trauma Maintenance: Military powered armour built to preserve as much of its wearer as possible after severe injury.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Powered Suit with Trauma Maintenance

The Forever War, Joe Haldeman · 1974

Military powered armour built to preserve as much of its wearer as possible after severe injury.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A suit that makes one soldier as strong and as hard to kill as a vehicle would change what an army costs and how it fights.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and since several engineering firms could build such suits, the defence suppliers that already hold army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Seed Bomb: A fictional tiny explosive implant used for coercion in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Seed Bomb

Flow My Tears, The Policeman Said, Philip K. Dick · 1974

A fictional tiny explosive implant used for coercion in the story.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A device planted in a person to kill them unless they obey is a tool of blackmail that no one may lawfully buy or use.

Who is paid. Nothing is lawfully sold, so there is no payer and no seller to keep anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Satellite Search and Destroy: A fictional military capability for eliminating orbiting satellites.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Satellite Search and Destroy

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

A fictional military capability for eliminating orbiting satellites.

already existed before the story (the 1960s)

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. The power to knock down another state's satellites is a narrow military job, however important in a war.

Who is paid. Only governments pay, and the few rocket and missile builders that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Death Star: A fictional moon-sized battle station used by an empire in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Death Star

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

A fictional moon-sized battle station used by an empire in the story.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Assuming a station the size of a moon could be built, it would be the largest single arms order a state could place.

Who is paid. One government pays for a single station, and the few yards already able to build large spacecraft would share the work.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Deflector Shield: A fictional energy barrier that protects ships from attack.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Deflector Shield

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

A fictional energy barrier that protects ships from attack.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Judged as if it worked, a barrier that stops attacks would change how ships, bases and cities are defended.

Who is paid. Assuming it is bought for defence in war, governments pay, and assuming rivals learn to copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ion Cannon: A fictional heavy particle weapon used in space battles.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ion Cannon

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

A fictional heavy particle weapon used in space battles.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Heavy beam weapons for warships would be a major line of arms spending for any space fleet.

Who is paid. Navies pay, and the yards and arms firms that already build and equip warships would fit them and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Lightsaber: A fictional energy-blade sword used in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Lightsaber

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

A fictional energy-blade sword used in the story.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Judged as if it worked, an energy sword loses to a gun as a weapon, so it is a prized object for a few buyers.

Who is paid. A few people buy one for themselves, and assuming others can learn to copy it once one is built, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Smother-Charge: A fictional specialised explosive used in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Smother-Charge

My Name is Legion, Roger Zelazny · 1976

A fictional specialised explosive used in the story.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A special-purpose explosive fills one narrow job.

Who is paid. Assuming armies are the buyers, governments pay, and existing explosives makers collect because such charges are easy to copy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of T.I.E. Fighter (Tie Fighter): A fictional agile combat spacecraft flown in the story.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

T.I.E. Fighter (Tie Fighter)

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

A fictional agile combat spacecraft flown in the story.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Armoured fighting vehicles and warcraft are among the biggest things an army buys, and a better one shifts what winning costs.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and since the designs can be copied, the builders that already own the works and hold the army's supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Armored Clothing: Everyday-looking garments concealing protective plating and powered strength assistance.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Armored Clothing

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

Everyday-looking garments concealing protective plating and powered strength assistance.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Hidden armour with added strength suits bodyguards and agents, a narrow group, where the open soldier suit serves whole armies.

Who is paid. Assuming guards and agents of the state are the buyers, makers of protective gear with state contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tracked Vehicle: A heavily protected tracked vehicle notable for its nimble handling.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tracked Vehicle

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

A heavily protected tracked vehicle notable for its nimble handling.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Armoured fighting vehicles and warcraft are among the biggest things an army buys, and a better one shifts what winning costs.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and since the designs can be copied, the builders that already own the works and hold the army's supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mobile Armor: A limbed combat spacecraft carrying heavy weaponry.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mobile Armor

Mobile Suit Gundam, Yoshiyuki Tomino · 1979

A limbed combat spacecraft carrying heavy weaponry.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2080s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A piloted armoured war machine of that size would be a new class of weapon on the scale of tanks or warplanes.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and only the heavy arms builders with yards, factories and contracts could turn them out, though any of them could.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mobile Suit: A towering humanoid armoured war machine piloted from inside.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mobile Suit

Mobile Suit Gundam, Yoshiyuki Tomino · 1979

A towering humanoid armoured war machine piloted from inside.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A piloted armoured war machine of that size would be a new class of weapon on the scale of tanks or warplanes.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and only the heavy arms builders with yards, factories and contracts could turn them out, though any of them could.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Powergun: An energy weapon carried by soldiers in a military adventure series.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Powergun

Hammer's Slammers, David Drake · 1979

An energy weapon carried by soldiers in a military adventure series.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A beam weapon carried in the hand does much the same job as a gun, so the gain over a gun is modest.

Who is paid. Armies buy it with public money, and since rival makers can copy it the established arms suppliers with standing army contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Solar Flare System: A giant orbital mirror weapon used in a space war in the series.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Solar Flare System

Mobile Suit Gundam, Yoshiyuki Tomino · 1979

A giant orbital mirror weapon used in a space war in the series.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A heavy beam or a weapon fired from orbit lets a state strike or defend across great distances and would take a large share of what it spends on arms.

Who is paid. Only governments pay, and the few shipyards and space builders that already hold such contracts are the ones able to deliver it, so they collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Supertank: A hovering armoured war vehicle that runs on its own onboard fusion reactor.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Supertank

Hammer's Slammers, David Drake · 1979

A hovering armoured war vehicle that runs on its own onboard fusion reactor.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Armoured fighting vehicles and warcraft are among the biggest things an army buys, and a better one shifts what winning costs.

Who is paid. Armies pay, and since the designs can be copied, the builders that already own the works and hold the army's supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Surveillance, identity and control · 15
Illustration of Great Ear: A state listening machine that reads the thoughts of huge crowds at once.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Great Ear

Our Friends From Frolix 8, Philip K. Dick · 1970

A state listening machine that reads the thoughts of huge crowds at once.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Reading the thoughts of whole crowds would give a state a power worth an industry, though only a state would use it.

Who is paid. The state pays for a single great machine, and I assume its usual defence suppliers build it and could be replaced by others.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Copseyes: Small hovering police cameras that patrol a large park.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Copseyes

Cloak of Anarchy, Larry Niven · 1972

Small hovering police cameras that patrol a large park.

built since, date unclear

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Cheap flying watchers change the cost of policing, border watch and scouting enough to be an industry of their own.

Who is paid. Police forces and armies pay, and since many firms can build such craft the money goes to those already holding security and defence supply contracts.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Mini-Sneaker: A tiny flying spy device.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Mini-Sneaker

The Godmakers, Brian Herbert · 1972

A tiny flying spy device.

built since, date unclear

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Spying machines too small to notice would change what police and spy services can learn, enough for an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Spy and police services pay, and once made they can be copied, so the firms already supplying such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Nightmask: A face-worn mask with its own infrared lamp for seeing in the dark.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nightmask

Hellstrom's Hive, Frank Herbert · 1972

A face-worn mask with its own infrared lamp for seeing in the dark.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Seeing in the dark matters to guards, soldiers and police, which is a niche.

Who is paid. Assumes soldiers and police are the main buyers; gear sold to them goes through the firms that already supply them.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Ultraminiature Spy-Circuit: Dust-sized sensors scattered to watch and listen covertly.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Ultraminiature Spy-Circuit

The Unknown, Christopher Anvil · 1972

Dust-sized sensors scattered to watch and listen covertly.

built since, date unclear

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Dust-sized sensors scattered to watch and listen in secret change what spy services can learn.

Who is paid. The description says it watches covertly, so spy services pay, and the firms already supplying them collect since it can be copied.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Decibel Alarms: Sensors that warn when crowd noise climbs toward riot levels.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Decibel Alarms

A Bridle for Pegasus, Anne McCaffrey · 1973

Sensors that warn when crowd noise climbs toward riot levels.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Warning that a crowd is growing loud enough to riot is a minor aid to policing.

Who is paid. City authorities pay, and a sound sensor is simple to build, so the firms already supplying police equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of EEG-Gram Projection: Remote sensing of a person's distinctive brain signature to identify them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

EEG-Gram Projection

Flow My Tears, The Policeman Said, Philip K. Dick · 1974

Remote sensing of a person's distinctive brain signature to identify them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2060s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Finding any chosen person wherever they are would change police work, rescue and manhunts enough to be an industry.

Who is paid. Police and security services pay, and once shown to work others could build it, so existing police suppliers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Microtransmitter Dot: A tiny tag on identity papers that lets authorities follow the holder.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Microtransmitter Dot

Flow My Tears, The Policeman Said, Philip K. Dick · 1974

A tiny tag on identity papers that lets authorities follow the holder.

built in the 1980s, about 10 years after it was imagined

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A tag on identity papers lets the holder be followed only while the papers are carried, a narrow addition to documents already issued.

Who is paid. The state pays, and the tags are easy to copy, so the printers that already make identity documents collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Skull Bug: An implant placed in the head at birth for tracking and controlling a person.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Skull Bug

The Computer Connection, Alfred Bester · 1974

An implant placed in the head at birth for tracking and controlling a person.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2050s

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. It is done to a person without their say, to hurt them, break their mind or override their will or body, which no one may lawfully buy or use.

Who is paid. Assuming it is outlawed for everyone, governments and employers included, nothing is sold.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of National Network Surveillance: A government system for watching how people use computer networks.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

National Network Surveillance

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

A government system for watching how people use computer networks.

built in 2007, 32 years after it was imagined

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Watching all use of a nation's networks changes what a state can know about its people, enough for an industry of its own.

Who is paid. The state pays, and the firms that already build and run its computer and records systems collect, since others could build the same.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Dog Suit: A disguise that lets an alien investigator pass as a pet dog.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Dog Suit

Doorways in the Sand, Roger Zelazny · 1976

A disguise that lets an alien investigator pass as a pet dog.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A disguise that passes its wearer off as a pet serves a very few investigators.

Who is paid. Assuming a spy service is the buyer, it pays, and since a skilled maker could copy the disguise the firms already trusted with secret supply work collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Genoprinter: A handheld scanner that takes a living skin sample to confirm someone's genetic identity.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Genoprinter

The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977

A handheld scanner that takes a living skin sample to confirm someone's genetic identity.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Quick, sure identity from a body sample would reshape police work, border checks and hiring, enough for an industry.

Who is paid. Governments pay to run the register and the checks, and many laboratories can make the machines, so existing test suppliers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Holo-Scanner: A compact handheld scanner that records three-dimensional surveillance footage.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Holo-Scanner

A Scanner Darkly, Philip K. Dick · 1977

A compact handheld scanner that records three-dimensional surveillance footage.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A handheld recorder of depth footage is a specialist tool for police watching suspects.

Who is paid. Police forces pay, and it could be copied, so existing suppliers of police equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Scramble Suit: A body-covering sheath that keeps shifting the wearer's appearance to hide who they are.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Scramble Suit

A Scanner Darkly, Philip K. Dick · 1977

A body-covering sheath that keeps shifting the wearer's appearance to hide who they are.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A sheath that hides who the wearer is serves a few undercover agents.

Who is paid. Assumes police running undercover agents are the buyers, as in the story; the firms already supplying such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Transmitter Eyes: Hidden cameras relaying picture and sound from an arena to spectators watching in secret elsewhere.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Transmitter Eyes

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

Hidden cameras relaying picture and sound from an arena to spectators watching in secret elsewhere.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Hidden cameras sending sight and sound to secret watchers are a recording tool for a narrow use.

Who is paid. Assumes a spy or police service is the buyer of hidden cameras; the firms already supplying such services collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Food, agriculture and environment · 13
Illustration of Food Brick: Manufactured ration blocks tailored to feed any kind of creature.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Food Brick

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

Manufactured ration blocks tailored to feed any kind of creature.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Compact rations are a convenience for people who cannot carry or cook ordinary food.

Who is paid. I assumed armies and state expeditions are the main buyers, and the firms that already hold their supply contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Powdered Alcohol: A dry powder form of alcoholic drink.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Powdered Alcohol

The Stainless Steel Rat's Revenge, Harry Harrison · 1970

A dry powder form of alcoholic drink.

built in the 1970s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Alcohol in dry form is a convenience for carrying and storing a drink people already have.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and drying a drink is easy to copy, so the drink brands that already own shelf space collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Refrigeration Tape: A strip laid across land to keep large stretches of permafrost frozen.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Refrigeration Tape

Tower of Glass, Robert Silverberg · 1970

A strip laid across land to keep large stretches of permafrost frozen.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeA government pays; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Keeping frozen ground frozen across wide stretches would protect roads, pipelines and towns in cold lands.

Who is paid. Governments pay to protect land nobody can be charged for, and I assumed the new material is hard to copy, so its first maker keeps what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Tickler: A machine that removes smog from the air and keeps the collected residue.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Tickler

Eurema's Dam, R.A. Lafferty · 1972

A machine that removes smog from the air and keeps the collected residue.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A machine that clears smog from city air would be a real gain for everyone who breathes it.

Who is paid. Nobody can be charged for clean air one by one, so cities pay, and I assumed the makers of heavy air-handling gear who already sell to cities collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Environmental Happening: Engineered weather staged as an artistic performance.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Environmental Happening

The Phantom of Kansas, John Varley · 1976

Engineered weather staged as an artistic performance.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Weather shaped as a show is an entertainment for a small audience.

Who is paid. I assumed spectators and patrons pay the performers, and anyone with the gear and the skill can stage one, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of RUMOKO: A project to make new land by deliberately triggering volcanoes under the sea.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

RUMOKO

My Name is Legion, Roger Zelazny · 1976

A project to make new land by deliberately triggering volcanoes under the sea.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2070s

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. New land raised from the sea would be worth a great deal to a crowded country.

Who is paid. A government pays for a project of this size, and I assumed the heavy engineering firms that already win such contracts do the work and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sonic Curtain (Sound Lock): An underwater sound barrier that keeps large sea creatures away.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sonic Curtain (Sound Lock)

My Name is Legion, Roger Zelazny · 1976

An underwater sound barrier that keeps large sea creatures away.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping animals out with sound is a niche tool for a few sites.

Who is paid. Owners of sea sites such as fish farms and harbours buy it, and underwater loudspeaker gear is easy for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Vaporator: A machine that pulls water out of the air for growing crops.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Vaporator

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

A machine that pulls water out of the air for growing crops.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Water drawn from dry air for crops would open up dry lands to farming, which is worth an industry.

Who is paid. Here farms buy it to water crops, not households to drink, and I assumed the gear is simple enough that many workshops can make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Alien Zoo: A zoo collecting flora and fauna from numerous worlds.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Alien Zoo

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

A zoo collecting flora and fauna from numerous worlds.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeHouseholds pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A zoo of creatures from many worlds is an attraction people visit for pleasure.

Who is paid. I assumed visitors buy tickets, and whoever holds animals that nobody else can get keeps what is left.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Life Bank: A vault preserving genetic material from Earth's living things.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Life Bank

The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977

A vault preserving genetic material from Earth's living things.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A store of living things is insurance against loss, valued by the public but not something that changes daily life.

Who is paid. No visitor or user can be charged, so governments pay, and I assumed any capable builder can put one up, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pork Tree: A crop plant that grows a substitute for animal flesh.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pork Tree

The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977

A crop plant that grows a substitute for animal flesh.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A crop that grows meat would cut the cost of meat across the whole trade.

Who is paid. Growers buy the plants, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the seed houses and nurseries that already hold stock, land and sales channels collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sonabarrier: A sound-based barrier that stops birds from entering protected zones.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sonabarrier

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

A sound-based barrier that stops birds from entering protected zones.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping animals out with sound is a niche tool for a few sites.

Who is paid. Site owners such as farms, ports and airfields buy it, and loudspeaker gear is easy for many firms to make, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Zoo Fences: An animal enclosure barrier formed by a moat of corrosive liquid.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Zoo Fences

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

An animal enclosure barrier formed by a moat of corrosive liquid.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A barrier of corrosive liquid is one more way to fence a zoo.

Who is paid. Zoos buy it, and a ditch filled with a harsh liquid is something any builder can supply, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Home and everyday life · 28
Illustration of Inert-Wear: Ordinary clothing of non-living fibre that does not change or respond.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Inert-Wear

Say Goodby to the Wind, J.G. Ballard · 1970

Ordinary clothing of non-living fibre that does not change or respond.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. This is plain clothing that does not change, and in the story it is the dull choice beside living fabrics, but plain clothing still dresses most people.

Who is paid. Everyone buys clothes for themselves, and ordinary cloth can be made by a great many firms, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Sound Deadener: A device that quiets loud noise made by different creatures nearby.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Sound Deadener

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

A device that quiets loud noise made by different creatures nearby.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Truly quieting loud neighbours would be wanted in most homes, which is worth an industry; I assumed it quiets a whole home and not just a patch.

Who is paid. The noise described comes from neighbours, so households buy it, and once the method of opposing noise is known many firms could make it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Transparent Overalls: See-through prison clothing that prevents hiding anything.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Transparent Overalls

The Stainless Steel Rat's Revenge, Harry Harrison · 1970

See-through prison clothing that prevents hiding anything.

built in 1973, 3 years after it was imagined

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. See-through prison clothing is a minor security aid; unlike the fashion version it is bought for prisons.

Who is paid. The government pays as prison keeper, and the cloth is easy to copy, so firms that already supply prisons collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Filter-Mask: A face mask for breathing in heavily polluted air.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Filter-Mask

The Sheep Look Up, John Brunner · 1972

A face mask for breathing in heavily polluted air.

built since, date unclear

A large prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Where the air is badly polluted, everyone who goes outside needs a mask, which is an industry of its own.

Who is paid. People buy masks for themselves, and they are simple enough that a great many makers compete.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Implant-Watch: A timepiece under the skin that shows the hour with coloured lights.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Implant-Watch

Cloak of Anarchy, Larry Niven · 1972

A timepiece under the skin that shows the hour with coloured lights.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Reading the hour from lights under your skin is a novelty way to wear a watch.

Who is paid. Wearers pay for it, and the device is simple enough that many makers and clinics could offer it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Polawindow: A window-sized filter that adjusts the brightness and colour of incoming light.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Polawindow

The Godmakers, Frank Herbert · 1972

A window-sized filter that adjusts the brightness and colour of incoming light.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A window filter that sets brightness and colour replaces curtains, which is a convenience.

Who is paid. Households and builders buy it, and it is easy to copy, so the glass makers with factories and trade ties collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Rotating House: A family home on a central pivot so it can turn to face any direction.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rotating House

The Godmakers, Frank Herbert · 1972

A family home on a central pivot so it can turn to face any direction.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A house that turns to face any direction is a novelty for a few buyers.

Who is paid. Households buy it, and a pivot is easy to copy, so the builders and developers who already hold land and customers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Selectacol: A device that suggests colour schemes to furnish a room automatically.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Selectacol

The Godmakers, Frank Herbert · 1972

A device that suggests colour schemes to furnish a room automatically.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Suggesting colour schemes for a room saves a little thought when decorating.

Who is paid. Households buy it and many firms can make such a device, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Frictionless Cups: Drinking vessels coated so liquid never clings to them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Frictionless Cups

Protector, Larry Niven · 1973

Drinking vessels coated so liquid never clings to them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A cup that never holds a drop is a little easier to clean.

Who is paid. People buy them for the kitchen, and I assume the coating can be copied by other makers once it is on sale.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Floating Building: An apartment block that hovers slightly above the ground.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Floating Building

Flow My Tears, The Policeman Said, Philip K. Dick · 1974

An apartment block that hovers slightly above the ground.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A block of flats that hovers a little above the ground gives its tenants nothing much that a grounded block does not.

Who is paid. A developer pays for it as a showpiece, and the large builders who already put up such blocks would do the work and collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Frictionless Toilet: A toilet bowl so slick it needs no water to stay clean.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Frictionless Toilet

The Mote in God's Eye, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1974

A toilet bowl so slick it needs no water to stay clean.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Unlike a slick cup, a toilet that needs no water would save a great deal of water and piping, and would bring clean toilets to dry places.

Who is paid. Home owners buy it, and I assume the coating can be copied, so the firms that already make and fit bathroom fixtures collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Home Ad Blocker: A home system that keeps projected three-dimensional adverts from intruding.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Home Ad Blocker

The Computer Connection, Alfred Bester · 1974

A home system that keeps projected three-dimensional adverts from intruding.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Keeping floating adverts out of the home removes an annoyance in a world that has them.

Who is paid. People buy it for peace at home, and once the trick of blocking the images is known any electronics maker could copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Coley Group: A style of music performed by dancing inside a field of low-power microwaves.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Coley Group

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

A style of music performed by dancing inside a field of low-power microwaves.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is a style of music and dance, enjoyed by its fans.

Who is paid. Fans pay to watch or to play, and nobody can own a style of music, so any performer may take it up.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Inflatable Church: A place of worship whose altar is a blow-up projection screen.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Inflatable Church

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

A place of worship whose altar is a blow-up projection screen.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A blow-up screen for an altar is a cheap fitting for a place of worship.

Who is paid. Churches pay for it as organisations, and inflatable screens are easy for anyone to make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of 3D 'Chess' Game Board: A tabletop display that projects game pieces as moving three-dimensional figures.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

3D 'Chess' Game Board

Star Wars, George Lucas · 1976

A tabletop display that projects game pieces as moving three-dimensional figures.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A game table with moving solid-looking pieces is a pleasant toy, not a need.

Who is paid. Families buy it as a game, and once the display exists many toy and screen makers could build the same thing.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Moon Moth: A modest, shy-looking mask signalling low social standing.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Moon Moth

The Moon Moth, Jack Vance · 1976

A modest, shy-looking mask signalling low social standing.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A mask that signals low standing is a piece of costume with a niche use.

Who is paid. Households buy it and any craftsman can make a mask, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Stimic: A wind instrument of three pipes played by squeezing an air bag.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Stimic

The Moon Moth, Jack Vance · 1976

A wind instrument of three pipes played by squeezing an air bag.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A pipe instrument played by squeezing a bag serves a few musicians.

Who is paid. Musicians buy it and any instrument maker can build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Antiholo Generator: A device that cancels unwanted holographic adverts.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Antiholo Generator

The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977

A device that cancels unwanted holographic adverts.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Blocking floating adverts removes an annoyance in a world that has them.

Who is paid. People buy it for peace at home, and once the trick of cancelling the images is known any electronics maker could copy it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Bedog: A living, aware creature bred to serve as a bed.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Bedog

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

A living, aware creature bred to serve as a bed.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: 2100 or later

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A living bed is a comfort and a curiosity, and many would dislike sleeping on an aware creature.

Who is paid. People buy it for the home, and since living stock multiplies once any of it is sold, no originator can hold it, so the breeders and furnishing shops that already hold stock and showrooms collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Darkdawn City: An urban settlement whose towers are shaped so passing wind sounds music through them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Darkdawn City

Dying of the Light, George RR Martin · 1977

An urban settlement whose towers are shaped so passing wind sounds music through them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Towers that sing in the wind are civic art, pleasant but not needed.

Who is paid. A city government pays for it as public art, and the ordinary architects and builders who put up towers collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Flexible Sprung Boots: Footwear that bends softly on normal strides but rebounds like a spring under heavy impact.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flexible Sprung Boots

Inherit the Stars, James P. Hogan · 1977

Footwear that bends softly on normal strides but rebounds like a spring under heavy impact.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Boots that soften a hard landing are a modest gain for walkers and workers.

Who is paid. Wearers buy them, and the springy sole can be copied, so any of the many footwear makers can sell them and no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Graluz: A hidden, enclosed breeding pool for an amphibious alien species.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Graluz

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

A hidden, enclosed breeding pool for an amphibious alien species.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A private pool for raising young serves the households of a single species.

Who is paid. Families of that species pay to have it built into the home, and any builder can make an enclosed pool.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Odalarm: An alarm clock that wakes sleepers with a chosen smell.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Odalarm

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

An alarm clock that wakes sleepers with a chosen smell.

built in the 1970s, about 0 years after it was imagined

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Waking to a chosen smell is a novelty version of an alarm clock.

Who is paid. Households buy it and any gadget maker can build it, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Swimming Tubes: Water-filled passages linking buildings so aquatic residents can travel between them.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Swimming Tubes

The Dosadi Experiment, Frank Herbert · 1977

Water-filled passages linking buildings so aquatic residents can travel between them.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Water passages between buildings serve only residents who swim, which is a niche.

Who is paid. I assumed a city pays for them as public works, so the building firms that already hold such contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Joo Janta 200 Super-Chromatic Peril Sensitive Sunglasses: Eyewear that turns opaque whenever the wearer is about to see something alarming.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Joo Janta 200 Super-Chromatic Peril Sensitive Sunglasses

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams · 1979

Eyewear that turns opaque whenever the wearer is about to see something alarming.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Glasses that go dark at the sight of danger are a joke comfort, since they hide the danger and do nothing about it.

Who is paid. Wearers buy them, and other makers of eyewear could copy them once they were on sale.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Nutri-Matic: A beverage machine that reads the drinker to guess what they would enjoy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nutri-Matic

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams · 1979

A beverage machine that reads the drinker to guess what they would enjoy.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2030s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Guessing which drink someone would enjoy is a pleasant extra on a drinks machine.

Who is paid. I assumed a vending machine, so firms buy it for their premises, and the vending operators that already place machines collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Self-Satisfied Door: An automatic door with a smug, chatty personality.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Self-Satisfied Door

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams · 1979

An automatic door with a smug, chatty personality.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2020s

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A chatty personality adds nothing useful to an automatic door.

Who is paid. Building owners buy doors, and the feature is easy to copy, so firms that already fit doors collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Towel: An ordinary cloth celebrated as a traveller's most versatile possession.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Towel

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams · 1979

An ordinary cloth celebrated as a traveller's most versatile possession.

built since, date unclear

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. It is an ordinary towel, however useful the story finds it.

Who is paid. Households buy it and anyone can make a towel, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Exotic physics · 19
Illustration of Floating Castle: A huge building that hovers freely above the ground.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Floating Castle

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

A huge building that hovers freely above the ground.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A hovering mansion is a showpiece for the very rich.

Who is paid. Wealthy owners would pay, and established builders would put it up using lifting gear anyone could buy.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Osmosis Generator (Cziltang Brone): A device that lets matter pass through otherwise solid walls.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Osmosis Generator (Cziltang Brone)

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

A device that lets matter pass through otherwise solid walls.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Passing through solid walls would change rescue, mining and spying, and would undo most locks.

Who is paid. I assume the public would be barred from it, so police, armies and rescue services pay and their usual suppliers build it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Slaver Stasis Field: A protective field inside which time is frozen.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Slaver Stasis Field

Ringworld, Larry Niven · 1970

A protective field inside which time is frozen.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeHouseholds pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Stopping time inside a box would end spoilage and hold the badly hurt until help comes, assuming a container of household or shop size.

Who is paid. Homes, shops and hospitals would buy it like a refrigerator, and since it could be copied the appliance makers with factories and shops collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Trumps: Enchanted cards that let holders talk to and travel to one another.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Trumps

Nine Princes in Amber, Roger Zelazny · 1970

Enchanted cards that let holders talk to and travel to one another.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A vast prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A vast prize. Talking and stepping straight to another person anywhere would change how most people travel, work and trade.

Who is paid. People would buy the cards for themselves, and unlike a fixed gateway they need no sites or networks, so assuming many can make them no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Superluminal: Travel or signalling faster than light.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Superluminal

Patterns of Chaos, Colin Kapp · 1972

Travel or signalling faster than light.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Ships that outrun light would open other stars to trade and settlement, an industry of its own, though most people would never ride one. It is named as an idea rather than a device, so it is judged as the working thing it describes.

Who is paid. Shipping lines and explorers would buy the engines, and once the trick is known any shipyard could fit it, so the established ship builders collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Monopole Mining: Searching space for naturally occurring single magnetic poles to collect.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Monopole Mining

Protector, Larry Niven · 1973

Searching space for naturally occurring single magnetic poles to collect.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Gathering rare magnetic particles in space is a niche supply trade, assuming they are wanted for compact motors.

Who is paid. Makers of machinery would buy the catch, and with open space free to any prospector no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Alderson Point: An endpoint of a fixed route that lets ships jump between stars.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Alderson Point

The Mote in God's Eye, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1974

An endpoint of a fixed route that lets ships jump between stars.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; the maker keeps the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A place ships must pass through to jump between stars is worth what the trade through it is worth, as a strait or a harbour is.

Who is paid. Shippers would pay tolls to pass, and I assume the place can be held, so whoever holds it controls a route others cannot make more of.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Cushion Fence: A soft force-field barrier that gently holds things back.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Cushion Fence

The Computer Connection, Alfred Bester · 1974

A soft force-field barrier that gently holds things back.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Unlike the hard barriers, this one only holds things back gently, so it is a better fence rather than a weapon.

Who is paid. Owners of venues, farms and sites would buy it, and a fence is the kind of thing many firms could make.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Langston Field: An energy shield that protects a ship.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Langston Field

The Mote in God's Eye, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1974

An energy shield that protects a ship.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A wall nothing can pass would reshape defence, prisons and the guarding of valuable places.

Who is paid. Armies and police would be the main buyers, and with the method copyable among arms makers, the firms already holding such contracts would supply it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pressor Field: A force field that pushes back against anything that touches it.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pressor Field

The Forever War, Joe Haldeman · 1974

A force field that pushes back against anything that touches it.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A barrier that stops any attack would reshape defence and be worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Armies and city authorities would pay, and since rivals could copy it the firms that already hold defence contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Pressure Curtain: A field barrier that holds in air while letting people walk through.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Pressure Curtain

The Mote in God's Eye, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1974

A field barrier that holds in air while letting people walk through.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A field that holds in air at a doorway replaces an airlock, a single fitting for the few who work in space.

Who is paid. Operators of ships and stations would buy it, and the firms that already supply their equipment collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Time Dingbat: A nickname for a machine that sends people into the past, used for a work-relief scheme.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Time Dingbat

The Computer Connection, Alfred Bester · 1974

A nickname for a machine that sends people into the past, used for a work-relief scheme.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Reaching other times would be worth an industry in study, salvage and statecraft, though few people would need it day to day.

Who is paid. Here the story has the state pay to send idle workers back, and its established contractors build the machine, since others could copy it once shown.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Magnetic Projector: A device that throws out a swirling beam of magnetic force.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Magnetic Projector

The Space Beyond, John W. Campbell · 1976

A device that throws out a swirling beam of magnetic force.

not yet built · AI models' likeliest decade: the 2040s

A small prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A beam of magnetic force is mostly a weapon against metal ships, a narrow use.

Who is paid. I assume armed forces are the buyers, and their existing suppliers would make it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Rhennius Machine: An alien machine that flips any object into its mirror image.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Rhennius Machine

Doorways in the Sand, Roger Zelazny · 1976

An alien machine that flips any object into its mirror image.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Flipping an object into its mirror image is useful mainly to makers of drugs and chemicals, a niche.

Who is paid. Chemical and drug firms would pay to use it, and assuming others could build their own once it is understood no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Zero-Time Jail: A prison where a field stops time for those inside.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Zero-Time Jail

A World Out of Time, Larry Niven · 1976

A prison where a field stops time for those inside.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Stopping time for those inside would let a prison hold people at almost no running cost.

Who is paid. Because this one is a jail the state pays, and the firms that already build and supply prisons collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Null-Suit: A force field worn around the body that does the job of a pressure suit.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Null-Suit

The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977

A force field worn around the body that does the job of a pressure suit.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A field that holds air around the body would replace space suits, diving gear and much protective clothing.

Who is paid. Employers of people who work in harsh places would buy it, and a worn device could be copied by many makers.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Nullfield: A barrier made of pure energy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Nullfield

The Ophiuchi Hotline, John Varley · 1977

A barrier made of pure energy.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeA government pays; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A barrier that stops any attack would reshape defence and be worth an industry of its own.

Who is paid. Armies and city authorities would pay, and since rivals could copy it the firms that already hold defence contracts collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Infinite Improbability Drive: A joke propulsion system that makes wildly unlikely events happen.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Infinite Improbability Drive

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams · 1979

A joke propulsion system that makes wildly unlikely events happen.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; existing firms keep the restas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. Crossing between stars quickly would open new worlds to trade and settlement, an industry of its own, though most people's daily lives would change slowly.

Who is paid. The story treats it as a joke with wild side effects; assuming it can be steered, shipping lines would pay and shipbuilders who could copy it would collect.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Minovsky Particles: An invented subatomic particle that underpins many devices in the series.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Minovsky Particles

Mobile Suit Gundam, Yoshiyuki Tomino · 1979

An invented subatomic particle that underpins many devices in the series.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A large prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A large prize. A particle that makes compact power plants and other devices possible would change the costs of energy and arms, assuming it works as the series shows.

Who is paid. Makers of power plants and weapons would buy it, and since a particle of nature can be produced by anyone who learns how, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Society and economy · 9
Illustration of Flash Crowd (Flash Mob): A crowd that gathers suddenly wherever something interesting is happening.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Flash Crowd (Flash Mob)

Flash Crowd, Larry Niven · 1972

A crowd that gathers suddenly wherever something interesting is happening.

built since, date unclear

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A sudden crowd is something people do, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Key Club: An exclusive club reachable only by teleport, with identical branches in many places.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Key Club

Flash Crowd, Larry Niven · 1972

An exclusive club reachable only by teleport, with identical branches in many places.

not yet built · AI models judge it not physically possible

A small prizeHouseholds pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A members' club with linked branches is a luxury for a few; I assumed the teleport booths already exist.

Who is paid. Members pay, and any club owner could do the same once the booths exist.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of King's Free Park: A long, narrow park where lawlessness is permitted under constant watch.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

King's Free Park

Cloak of Anarchy, Larry Niven · 1972

A long, narrow park where lawlessness is permitted under constant watch.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. A watched park with no rules is one odd public space, a niche.

Who is paid. The city pays for it, and any contractor could build and watch it.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is not very sure of this one.

Illustration of Fyunch(click): An alien whose role is to become a specialist in understanding one particular human.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Fyunch(click)

The Mote in God's Eye, Larry Niven (w/J. Pournelle) · 1974

An alien whose role is to become a specialist in understanding one particular human.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. An alien assigned to study one human is a creature, not a technology.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Delphi Pool: Polling a large crowd whose pooled guesses tend to land near the truth.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Delphi Pool

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

Polling a large crowd whose pooled guesses tend to land near the truth.

already existed before the story (the 1950s)

A small prizeBusinesses pay; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Pooled crowd guesses help with some forecasts but are a niche tool.

Who is paid. Firms pay for the forecasts, and since anyone can poll a crowd, no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Electronic Voting: Citizens casting ballots through computer terminals.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Electronic Voting

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

Citizens casting ballots through computer terminals.

built in the 2000s, about 30 years after it was imagined

A small prizeA government pays; no seller keeps muchas a model judges it

Why

A small prize. Voting at a terminal saves some trouble at elections but changes little else.

Who is paid. The government pays for the terminals, and many firms can build them, so no seller keeps much.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Government Data Transparency: Publishing all state-held information openly online for anyone to read.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Government Data Transparency

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

Publishing all state-held information openly online for anyone to read.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Publishing state records for all to read is a policy, and the records are free.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Paid Avoidance Zone: A district where residents accept state payment to live without modern services.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Paid Avoidance Zone

The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner · 1975

A district where residents accept state payment to live without modern services.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. A payment from the state to its people is a policy that moves money around, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Illustration of Strakh: Social standing used as currency in a planet's economy.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Strakh

The Moon Moth, Jack Vance · 1976

Social standing used as currency in a planet's economy.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

No prizeNothing is soldas a model judges it

Why

No prize. Standing in others' eyes used as money is a custom of a society, not a product.

Who is paid. Nothing is sold, so nobody pays and no seller keeps anything.

A model's judgement, not a reading, of the idea as if it worked the way its story promises. The model is fairly sure of this one.

Not classified · 2
Illustration of WatchdØg (Watchdog): A guarding or monitoring device; the source gives few details.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

WatchdØg (Watchdog)

WatchdØg, Jack C. Haldeman · 1972

A guarding or monitoring device; the source gives few details.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

Profit, as AI models judge it: not judged (not a technology, not something sold, not physically possible, or unclear)

Illustration of Molemen: An element of the story; the source gives no details.Illustration made with AI image generation; not evidence.

Molemen

The Computer Connection, Alfred Bester · 1974

An element of the story; the source gives no details.

not yet built · AI models could not judge when it may arrive

Profit, as AI models judge it: not judged (not a technology, not something sold, not physically possible, or unclear)

Ideas from Technovelgy: Science Fiction Timeline of Inventions (Bill Christensen) (archived copy), as compiled in Not Boring: Sci-Fi Idea Bank (Packy McCormick); names, works, authors and years are theirs and every description is this site's rewording. Categories, arrival decades and profit are judged by AI models, not people. Method