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Capture / layer 2

Model

Frontier labs, neolabs, open-weight and Chinese labs. Dependency tier 2.

Indicators

Frontier-lab revenue run-ratesgrade C
concentratingcoincident55/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
$40.0Bas of 2026-08-13
Lab recoupment ratiograde C
emerginglagging50/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
0.22×as of 2026-08-13(12 obs)
Price per unit of capability (cheapest METR-hour on OpenRouter)grade A
not yet measurablecoincident40/95 confidence, limited or vague
$0.30as of 2026-09-10(32 obs)
Frontier labs' share of tracked venture dollarsgrade A
stableleading50/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
94.8%as of 2026-06-30(32 obs)
Frontier lab valuation to run-rate multiplegrade C
emergingleading45/95 confidence, limited or vague
28.3×as of 2026-06-16(10 obs)
Lab vertical integration (acquisitions and acquihires, trailing four quarters)grade A
concentratingleading55/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
10as of 2026-09-30(11 obs)
Open-weights gap to the closed frontier (ECI points)grade A
dispersingleading55/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
5.77 indexas of 2026-08-20(3 obs)
Enterprise multi-model usage share (Menlo)grade B
not yet measurablecoincident45/95 confidence, limited or vague
60.0%as of 2023-11-10
Model-layer token concentration on OpenRouter (HHI, top table)grade B
not yet measurablecoincident40/95 confidence, limited or vague
0.11 indexas of 2026-09-09(19 obs)
METR 50% time horizongrade A
faster than normalleading80/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
17.4 h(8.5 h–55.1 h)⚑disputedas of 2026-04-07
METR 80% time horizongrade A
faster than normalleading70/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
3.1 h(1.6 h–6.6 h)as of 2026-04-07
50%/80% horizon ratiograde A
consistent with normalleading70/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
6.34×as of 2026-03-05(2 obs)
Agent-workdays per human workday in frontier research (self-reported)grade D
emergingleading30/95 confidence, limited or vague
3.10×as of 2026-08-15
Human interventions on 4–8 hour agent tasks (self-reported)grade D
emergingleading30/95 confidence, limited or vague
50.0%as of 2026-07-31
Safety brakes inside the labs (events, trailing year)grade D
emergingleading40/95 confidence, limited or vague
3as of 2026-09-01(3 obs)
Frontier training compute growth (doubling time)grade B
emergingleading60/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
170 daysas of 2025-07-09(66 obs)
Inference price at fixed capability (halving time)grade B
emergingcoincident45/95 confidence, limited or vague
68 daysas of 2024-12-13(6 obs)
ARC-AGI-2 best scoregrade B
emergingleading55/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
95.0%as of 2026-09-03(203 obs)
Ord half-life misfit (observed 50/80 ratio vs constant hazard)grade A
consistent with normalleading60/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
2.04×as of 2026-03-05(2 obs)
Agent reliability across repeated runs (tau-bench pass^k)grade B
emergingleading55/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
56.2%as of 2026-05-18
Progress against the AI 2027 quantitative predictionsgrade B
emergingleading50/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
75.0%as of 2026-07-31
Internal-to-public deployment gap at the frontiergrade C
consistent with normalleading45/95 confidence, limited or vague
4.00 monthsas of 2026-06-30

Sub-layers

  1. 5. Frontier labs
  2. 6. Neolabs (founded 2023+)
  3. 7. Open-weight & Chinese labs

Crosswalk to the diffusion lens

  • Methods (same valve) — Capability growth is the model layer's product; inference price at fixed capability ⇄ price-per-token pass-through; open-weights lag ⇄ open-vs-closed gap.