Model-layer token concentration on OpenRouter (HHI, top table)
1What this measures
Herfindahl index of prompt-plus-completion tokens across the models in OpenRouter's daily top table, derived metric model_token_hhi_top10; one router's traffic, the listed slice only.
Why it matters. The only public, daily, cross-vendor usage signal. If routed demand concentrates on one or two models, the model layer holds pricing power; if it spreads, the layer is dispersing from the demand side.
- Proxy types
- market_structure, product
- Unit
- index
- Cadence
- weekly
2How we track this
- derived metric
model_token_hhi_top10(formula in the semantic layer)
Direction over 4 periods, dead-band 0.02 index; higher = concentrating.
Weekly readings; moves under 0.02 in the index are table churn. A rising index means routed tokens concentrating on fewer models.
Applied to metric:model_token_hhi_top10.
3Tracker interpretation
Series starts 9 September 2026; a direction needs five weekly readings.
4Evidence
Direction over the last 4 periods; the band is ±0.02 index around the window's first point. Higher reads concentrating.
19 observations. Hollow points are disputed (see counterevidence). Every point links to its observation.
Derived rows (1)
| as of | dims | value | inputs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | 0.11 index | obs:10009a61obs:107990b4obs:10a43925+16 more |
5Status and reasoning
First reading. OpenRouter's top table on 9 September 2026 gives an HHI of 0.109 across nineteen listed models (one router, top slice only); the direction rule needs five weekly readings, so not yet measurable.
6Timeline notes
- 2026-09-09 · 0.11 indexas of 2026-09-09(19 obs)
7Counterevidence
What cuts against this reading
OpenRouter is one router with a developer-heavy mix; the top table's length changes, which moves the index without any change in demand; enterprise traffic goes direct to the labs and never appears here.
8Update history
- 2026-09-10unmeasured to not yet measurableconf — → 40 · evaluate
First reading. OpenRouter's top table on 9 September 2026 gives an HHI of 0.109 across nineteen listed models (one router, top slice only); the direction rule needs five weekly readings, so not yet measurable.
9Confidence
40 / 95 — limited or vague evidence
Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; below 50 limited or vague.