Model-layer token concentration on OpenRouter (HHI, top table)
Herfindahl index of prompt-plus-completion tokens across the models in OpenRouter's daily top table, derived metric model_token_hhi_top10; one router's traffic, the listed slice only.
Reason through thisThe reading
Series starts 9 September 2026; a direction needs five weekly readings.
9 readings drawn from the derived metric model_token_hhi_top10; 178 observations in the evidence.
Derived (model_token_hhi_top10) from: OpenRouter rankings (token totals, top models by day). OpenRouter.
Why it matters
The only public, daily, cross-vendor usage signal. If routed demand concentrates on one or two models, the model layer holds pricing power; if it spreads, the layer is dispersing from the demand side.
What cuts against it
OpenRouter is one router with a developer-heavy mix; the top table's length changes, which moves the index without any change in demand; enterprise traffic goes direct to the labs and never appears here.
How it is measured
- derived metric
model_token_hhi_top10(formula in the semantic layer) - source OpenRouter rankings (token totals, top models by day) · default tier 3 · OpenRouter terms; public page
- proxy market_structure, product · cadence weekly
Weekly readings; moves under 0.02 in the index are table churn. A rising index means routed tokens concentrating on fewer models.
Applied to metric:model_token_hhi_top10.
Derived rows (9)
| as of | dims | value | inputs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 0.14 index | sources123+17 more | |
| 2026-11-01 | 0.13 index | sources123+17 more | |
| 2026-10-25 | 0.11 index | sources123+16 more | |
| 2026-10-18 | 0.11 index | sources123+17 more | |
| 2026-10-11 | 0.13 index | sources123+16 more | |
| 2026-10-04 | 0.14 index | sources123+17 more | |
| 2026-09-27 | 0.092 index | sources123+17 more | |
| 2026-09-20 | 0.090 index | sources123+17 more | |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.10 index | sources123+17 more |
Latest readings
- 2026-11-03 · 0.14 indexas of 2026-11-03(20 obs)
- 2026-11-01 · 0.13 indexas of 2026-11-01(20 obs)
- 2026-10-25 · 0.11 indexas of 2026-10-25(19 obs)
- 2026-10-18 · 0.11 indexas of 2026-10-18(20 obs)
- 2026-10-11 · 0.13 indexas of 2026-10-11(19 obs)
- 2026-10-04 · 0.14 indexas of 2026-10-04(20 obs)
Why this status, and its history
It has 3 readings and its direction rule compares 5, so it reads emerging rather than not yet measurable: the site uses not yet measurable only for what cannot be measured at all. The status turns into a direction once enough readings exist.
- 2026-09-27not yet measurable to emergingconf 40 → 40 · Claude (model)
It has 3 readings and its direction rule compares 5, so it reads emerging rather than not yet measurable: the site uses not yet measurable only for what cannot be measured at all. The status turns into a direction once enough readings exist.
Weighed against it: None needed: no reading has changed; this corrects the word used for too few readings.
- 2026-09-10unmeasured to not yet measurableconf — → 40 · the evaluator (automatic)
First reading. OpenRouter's top table on 9 September 2026 gives an HHI of 0.109 across nineteen listed models (one router, top slice only); the direction rule needs five weekly readings, so not yet measurable.
Why this confidence
Rests on 178 observations from OpenRouter rankings (token totals, top models by day); best evidence tier 3, grade B; current.
Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; 0–49 limited or vague evidence.