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Slow Variables

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Diffusion / bucket 3

Early adoption

Stock
Individuals and firms using the products, at any depth.
Speed limit
Human and organisational speed — training, procurement, trust, ROI measurement (electrification took decades).
Valve measured
adoption to adaptation

Indicators

Share of work hours assisted by generative AIgrade B
consistent with normalcoincident80/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
6.3%as of 2026-06-30
US firms using AI (Census BTOS)grade A
consistent with normalcoincident70/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
22.4%(21.7%–23.1%)as of 2026-08-09
US businesses paying for AI (Ramp AI Index)grade B
emergingleading60/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
56.1%as of 2026-08-31
Augmentation vs automation share (Anthropic Economic Index)grade B
consistent with normalcoincident60/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
51.4%as of 2026-05-31
Work-related share of ChatGPT consumer messagesgrade B
emergingcoincident65/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
27.0%as of 2025-06-30
Usage as a share of theoretical exposuregrade B
consistent with normalcoincident60/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
0.49×as of 2026-06-30(2 obs)

Crosswalk to the capture lens

  • Adopters (same valve) — BTOS, BBD, Ramp and the Anthropic Economic Index are adoption from both ends.