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Slow Variables

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Capture / layer 7

Labour & consumers

Wages, employment and consumer surplus — the welfare residual; indicator-only layer. Dependency tier 5.

Indicators

Consumer surplus from generative AI (willingness to accept)grade C
dispersinglagging65/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
$172Bas of 2026-03-31
US labour productivity, year on yeargrade A
consistent with normallagging80/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
2.2%as of 2026-06-30
US total factor productivity, private nonfarm businessgrade A
consistent with normallagging75/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
0.8%as of 2025-12-31(2 obs)
Employment in AI-exposed occupations, year on yeargrade C
consistent with normalcoincident80/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
-0.2%as of 2026-06-30
Entry-level employment shortfall in AI-exposed occupationsgrade B
emergingleading70/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
19.0%as of 2026-06-30
Exposed vs unexposed occupation employment gap (Revelio)grade B
emergingcoincident65/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
-6.0%as of 2026-07-31
California unemployment claims from AI-exposed occupationsgrade A
consistent with normalleading70/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
1.0%as of 2026-07-31
Recent-graduate unemployment rate (NY Fed)grade A
consistent with normallagging75/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
5.6%as of 2026-06-30
Cross-tracker concordance (labour)grade B
consistent with normalcoincident70/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
0as of 2026-07-31(4 obs)
US labour share of income, year on yeargrade A
emerginglagging65/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
-3.4%as of 2026-06-30(2 obs)
Workers highly exposed to AI with low adaptive capacitygrade B
emergingleading45/95 confidence, limited or vague
3,300,000 workersas of 2026-01-31
Occupational-mix dissimilarity since ChatGPT (Yale Budget Lab)grade B
consistent with normallagging65/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
5.26 ppas of 2026-03-01
Chatbot effect on earnings and hours in exposed occupations (Denmark)grade B
consistent with normallagging80/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
0.0%as of 2024-12-31
Freelance writing earnings after ChatGPT (Upwork)grade B
consistent with normalleading70/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
-5.2%as of 2023-12-01
Wage premium for AI skills (PwC AI Jobs Barometer)grade C
emergingcoincident50/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
62.0%as of 2025-12-31

Crosswalk to the diffusion lens

  • Adaptation (same valve) — Productivity, wages, employment and consumer surplus.