Adaptation · Labour & consumers
US labour productivity, year on year
Nonfarm business sector output per hour, percent change from the same quarter a year earlier (BLS PRS85006091).
Reason through thisThe reading
Productivity is growing at or a little above its usual pace, which is what an ordinary technology looks like a few years into wide use.
38 readings drawn from bls.prs85006091.q, one of 2 series listed under How it is measured; 76 observations in the evidence.
Source: BLS productivity and costs; total factor productivity. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Productivity and Costs (PRS85006092/93, PRS85006173), Total Factor Productivity (MPU4910012).
The numbers
| as of | reading | value | record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | prs85006091 | 2.2% | measured |
| 2026-03-31 | prs85006091 | 2.9% | measured |
| 2025-12-31 | prs85006091 | 2.5% | measured |
| 2025-09-30 | prs85006091 | 2.5% | measured |
| 2025-06-30 | prs85006091 | 2.1% | measured |
| 2025-03-31 | prs85006091 | 2.0% | measured |
| 2024-12-31 | prs85006091 | 2.3% | measured |
| 2024-09-30 | prs85006091 | 2.9% | measured |
| 2024-06-30 | prs85006091 | 3.2% | measured |
| 2024-03-31 | prs85006091 | 3.3% | measured |
| 2023-12-31 | prs85006091 | 3.5% | measured |
| 2023-09-30 | prs85006091 | 3.1% | measured |
| 2023-06-30 | prs85006091 | 1.9% | measured |
| 2023-03-31 | prs85006091 | 0.1% | measured |
| 2022-12-31 | prs85006091 | -1.4% | measured |
| 2022-09-30 | prs85006091 | -1.4% | measured |
| 2022-06-30 | prs85006091 | -2.0% | measured |
| 2022-03-31 | prs85006091 | -1.1% | measured |
| 2021-12-31 | prs85006091 | 0.9% | measured |
| 2021-09-30 | prs85006091 | -0.5% | measured |
| 2021-06-30 | prs85006091 | 1.7% | measured |
| 2021-03-31 | prs85006091 | 6.4% | measured |
| 2020-12-31 | prs85006091 | 5.2% | measured |
| 2020-09-30 | prs85006091 | 7.1% | measured |
| 2020-06-30 | prs85006091 | 6.6% | measured |
| 2020-03-31 | prs85006091 | 2.3% | measured |
| 2019-12-31 | prs85006091 | 3.6% | measured |
| 2019-09-30 | prs85006091 | 2.4% | measured |
| 2019-06-30 | prs85006091 | 1.6% | measured |
| 2019-03-31 | prs85006091 | 1.0% | measured |
| 2018-12-31 | prs85006091 | 0.5% | measured |
| 2018-09-30 | prs85006091 | 1.4% | measured |
| 2018-06-30 | prs85006091 | 1.9% | measured |
| 2018-03-31 | prs85006091 | 1.9% | measured |
| 2017-12-31 | prs85006091 | 1.8% | measured |
| 2017-09-30 | prs85006091 | 1.7% | measured |
| 2017-06-30 | prs85006091 | 1.2% | measured |
| 2017-03-31 | prs85006091 | 1.2% | measured |
Why it matters
However widely AI is used, it only matters for the economy once output per hour rises. Narayanan and Kapoor expect that to happen at the speed people and firms change, so productivity should stay near its usual trend for years even while the models race ahead.
What cuts against it
Quarterly productivity is noisy and cyclical; 2025–26 prints reflect a softening labour market and hours cuts as much as technology. Aggregate data cannot attribute anything to AI.
How it is measured
- series
bls.prs85006091.q - series
bls.prs85006092.q - source BLS productivity and costs; total factor productivity · default tier 4 · Public domain (U.S. government)
- proxy deployment, welfare · cadence quarterly · valve adoption to adaptation
Post-war nonfarm productivity growth averages about 2.1% a year, so anything up to 2.5% is trend. Goldman's AI scenario adds about 1.5 points a year; sustained prints of 3.5% or more would be that. Between is `emerging`.
Applied to bls.prs85006091.q.
Latest readings
Why this status, and its history
Nonfarm business labour productivity, year on year (BLS PRS85006091): Sep 2025 2.5%, Dec 2025 2.5%, Mar 2026 2.9%, Jun 2026 2.2%. Latest 2.2% sits inside the normal band (<=2.5%), around the post-war 2.1% trend. Initial seed.
- 2026-09-10unmeasured to consistent with normalconf — → 80 · initial seed (model-drafted)
Nonfarm business labour productivity, year on year (BLS PRS85006091): Sep 2025 2.5%, Dec 2025 2.5%, Mar 2026 2.9%, Jun 2026 2.2%. Latest 2.2% sits inside the normal band (<=2.5%), around the post-war 2.1% trend. Initial seed.
source1
Why this confidence
Rests on 76 observations from BLS productivity and costs; total factor productivity; best evidence tier 4, grade A; current.
Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; 0–49 limited or vague evidence.
Predictions that lean on this
- HappeningAI's big economic effects arrive over decades, not years. · Narayanan & Kapoor
- Happening
- Slower than said
- Too early to tell
- Too early to tell
More predictions that lean on this
- Too early to tellExperts surveyed by Ezra Karger and colleagues expect that if AI outperforms humans on many tasks by 2030, US growth would rise to around four percent a year, against about two and a half percent in their overall forecast. · Ezra Karger and colleagues (Forecasting Research Institute)
- Too early to tell
- Too early to tell
- Too early to tellExtreme case: growth soars and workers' share of income falls sharply. · Korinek et al. (The Anthropic Institute, WP 2026-02)
- Too early to tellModest case: AI adds under half a point a year to growth by 2030. · Korinek, Jones, Sacher, Cotter and McCrory (The Anthropic Institute, WP 2026-02)
- Happening