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Adaptation · Labour & consumers

US labour productivity, year on year

consistent with normal80/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguitygrade Alagging

1What this measures

Nonfarm business sector output per hour, percent change from the same quarter a year earlier (BLS PRS85006091).

Why it matters. The adaptation stock only counts when it shows up in aggregate productivity. The paper predicts diffusion at human speed, so productivity stays near trend for years even while capability races.

Proxy types
deployment, welfare
Unit
pct
Cadence
quarterly
Valve
adoption to adaptation

2How we track this

Normal band
≤ 2.5%
Fast band
≥ 3.5%
Falsifying
—

Post-war nonfarm productivity growth averages about 2.1% a year, so anything up to 2.5% is trend. Goldman's AI scenario adds about 1.5 points a year; sustained prints of 3.5% or more would be that. Between is `emerging`.

Applied to bls.prs85006091.q.

3Tracker interpretation

Productivity is at or slightly above trend, which is exactly what a normal-technology diffusion path looks like in year three of deployment.

4Evidence

Latest point
2.2%as of 2026-06-30
prs85006091
Value the bands apply to
2.2%as of 2026-06-30

76 observations. Hollow points are disputed (see counterevidence). Every point links to its observation.

5Status and reasoning

consistent with normalsince 2026-09-10 · claude-initial-seed

Nonfarm business labour productivity, year on year (BLS PRS85006091): Sep 2025 2.5%, Dec 2025 2.5%, Mar 2026 2.9%, Jun 2026 2.2%. Latest 2.2% sits inside the normal band (<=2.5%), around the post-war 2.1% trend. Initial seed.

6Timeline notes

  • 2026-06-30 prs85006091 · 2.2%as of 2026-06-30
  • 2026-03-31 prs85006091 · 2.9%as of 2026-03-31
  • 2025-12-31 prs85006091 · 2.5%as of 2025-12-31
  • 2025-09-30 prs85006091 · 2.5%as of 2025-09-30
  • 2025-06-30 prs85006091 · 2.1%as of 2025-06-30
  • 2025-03-31 prs85006091 · 2.0%as of 2025-03-31

7Counterevidence

What cuts against this reading

Quarterly productivity is noisy and cyclical; 2025–26 prints reflect a softening labour market and hours cuts as much as technology. Aggregate data cannot attribute anything to AI.

8Update history

  1. 2026-09-10unmeasured to consistent with normalconf — → 80 · claude-initial-seed

    Nonfarm business labour productivity, year on year (BLS PRS85006091): Sep 2025 2.5%, Dec 2025 2.5%, Mar 2026 2.9%, Jun 2026 2.2%. Latest 2.2% sits inside the normal band (<=2.5%), around the post-war 2.1% trend. Initial seed.

    obs:29ead0fa

9Confidence

80 / 95 — good evidence, some ambiguity

Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; below 50 limited or vague.

10Related