Adaptation · Labour & consumers
Chatbot effect on earnings and hours in exposed occupations (Denmark)
Difference-in-differences estimate of the effect of chatbot adoption on earnings and recorded hours for workers in exposed occupations, two years after ChatGPT, from Humlum and Vestergaard's Danish register study; the point estimates centre on zero with confidence intervals excluding effects above 2%.
Reason through thisThe reading
Zero, precisely. Adoption is high, time savings are real and modest, and none of it reaches pay yet.
1 reading drawn from humlum_pdf.denmark_exposed_workers.chatbot_effect_on_earnings.pt, one of 3 series listed under How it is measured; 3 observations in the evidence.
Source: Humlum working-paper PDFs (author site). Humlum & Vestergaard.
The numbers
| as of | reading | value | record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-31 | denmark exposed workers | 0.0% | estimate |
Why it matters
The cleanest labour-market null on record, from administrative data covering the whole population. A normal technology shows up in earnings slowly; this is the slow showing.
What cuts against it
Denmark is not the US; the window ends in 2024, before agentic tools; the effect could be a compositional wash across winners and losers.
How it is measured
- series
humlum_pdf.denmark_exposed_workers.chatbot_effect_on_earnings.pt - series
nber.denmark_exposed_workers.chatbot_effect_bound.pt - series
chicago_booth.denmark_exposed_workers.chatbot_effect_bound.pt - source Chicago Booth Center for Applied AI · default tier 6 · Chicago Booth; short quotation
- source Humlum working-paper PDFs (author site) · default tier 6 · Author preprint; short quotation
- source NBER working papers and chapters · default tier 6 · NBER; abstract quotation
- proxy welfare · cadence annual · valve adoption to adaptation
Normal = earnings and hours effects within two percent two years in; fast = a decline of five percent or more for exposed workers. Between is `emerging`.
Applied to humlum_pdf.denmark_exposed_workers.chatbot_effect_on_earnings.pt.
Latest readings
- 2024-12-31 denmark_exposed_workers · 0.0%as of 2024-12-31
Why this status, and its history
Evaluator: 0 (Humlum working-paper PDFs (author site), 2024-12-31) is inside the consistent band (lo=-0.02 hi=0.02). Auto-reason; band rationale: Normal = earnings and hours effects within two percent two years in; fast = a decline of five percent or more for exposed workers. Between is `emerging`.
- 2026-09-10unmeasured to consistent with normalconf — → 80 · the evaluator (automatic)
Evaluator: 0 (Humlum working-paper PDFs (author site), 2024-12-31) is inside the consistent band (lo=-0.02 hi=0.02). Auto-reason; band rationale: Normal = earnings and hours effects within two percent two years in; fast = a decline of five percent or more for exposed workers. Between is `emerging`.
source1
Why this confidence
Rests on 3 observations from Chicago Booth Center for Applied AI, Humlum working-paper PDFs (author site), NBER working papers and chapters; best evidence tier 6, grade B; current.
Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; 0–49 limited or vague evidence.