Adaptation · Labour & consumers
Occupational-mix dissimilarity since ChatGPT (Yale Budget Lab)
How far the occupational mix of the US workforce has moved from its November 2022 baseline, in percentage points, the Budget Lab's dissimilarity index (computed from a 12-month moving average of employment) from the chart data of its AI labour-market tracker; the same index from a January 2021 baseline is shown alongside as the pre-AI comparison at the same age, and the tracker's index between recent and older graduates (from a 3-month moving average) beside it.
Reason through thisThe reading
In August 2026, forty-five months after ChatGPT, the occupational mix had moved slightly more than it had at the same age from the January 2021 baseline, a curve that began before AI. The index between recent and older graduates read above 33 from March to August 2026, its longest run above that line since 2021; the Lab's September 2026 update still finds its measures flat, within historical ranges or on pre-AI trends.
46 readings drawn from yale_budget_lab_data.us_workers.occupation_dissimilarity_pp.m, one of 4 series listed under How it is measured; 183 observations in the evidence.
Source: Budget Lab at Yale AI labour-market tracker (dissimilarity index chart data). The Budget Lab at Yale.
The numbers
| as of | reading | value | record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | us workers | 5.56 pp | estimate |
| 2026-08-01 | us workers | 5.50 pp | estimate |
| 2026-07-01 | us workers | 5.48 pp | estimate |
| 2026-06-01 | us workers | 5.44 pp | estimate |
| 2026-05-01 | us workers | 5.39 pp | estimate |
| 2026-04-01 | us workers | 5.31 pp | estimate |
| 2026-03-01 | us workers | 5.26 pp | estimate |
| 2026-02-01 | us workers | 5.17 pp | estimate |
| 2026-01-01 | us workers | 5.13 pp | estimate |
| 2025-12-01 | us workers | 5.06 pp | estimate |
| 2025-11-01 | us workers | 4.94 pp | estimate |
| 2025-09-01 | us workers | 4.84 pp | estimate |
| 2025-08-01 | us workers | 4.76 pp | estimate |
| 2025-07-01 | us workers | 4.61 pp | estimate |
| 2025-06-01 | us workers | 4.49 pp | estimate |
| 2025-05-01 | us workers | 4.37 pp | estimate |
| 2025-04-01 | us workers | 4.28 pp | estimate |
| 2025-03-01 | us workers | 4.19 pp | estimate |
| 2025-02-01 | us workers | 4.10 pp | estimate |
| 2025-01-01 | us workers | 4.02 pp | estimate |
| 2024-12-01 | us workers | 3.92 pp | estimate |
| 2024-11-01 | us workers | 3.83 pp | estimate |
| 2024-10-01 | us workers | 3.72 pp | estimate |
| 2024-09-01 | us workers | 3.63 pp | estimate |
| 2024-08-01 | us workers | 3.59 pp | estimate |
| 2024-07-01 | us workers | 3.57 pp | estimate |
| 2024-06-01 | us workers | 3.52 pp | estimate |
| 2024-05-01 | us workers | 3.47 pp | estimate |
| 2024-04-01 | us workers | 3.42 pp | estimate |
| 2024-03-01 | us workers | 3.38 pp | estimate |
| 2024-02-01 | us workers | 3.33 pp | estimate |
| 2024-01-01 | us workers | 3.26 pp | estimate |
| 2023-12-01 | us workers | 3.17 pp | estimate |
| 2023-11-01 | us workers | 3.05 pp | estimate |
| 2023-10-01 | us workers | 2.91 pp | estimate |
| 2023-09-01 | us workers | 2.75 pp | estimate |
| 2023-08-01 | us workers | 2.55 pp | estimate |
| 2023-07-01 | us workers | 2.39 pp | estimate |
| 2023-06-01 | us workers | 2.18 pp | estimate |
| 2023-05-01 | us workers | 2.00 pp | estimate |
| 2023-04-01 | us workers | 1.72 pp | estimate |
| 2023-03-01 | us workers | 1.50 pp | estimate |
| 2023-02-01 | us workers | 1.20 pp | estimate |
| 2023-01-01 | us workers | 0.85 pp | estimate |
| 2022-12-01 | us workers | 0.47 pp | estimate |
| 2022-11-01 | us workers | 0.00 pp | estimate |
Why it matters
If AI were reshaping work, the mix of occupations would move faster than in prior technology transitions. The Budget Lab finds it moving at about the historical pace.
What cuts against it
Occupational mix moves slowly by construction; a CPS-based index cannot see within-occupation task change.
How it is measured
- series
yale_budget_lab_data.us_workers.occupation_dissimilarity_pp.m - series
yale_budget_lab_data.us_workers.occupation_dissimilarity_pp_jan2021.m - series
yale_budget_lab_data.recent_vs_older_grads.occupation_dissimilarity_pp.m - series
yale_budget_lab.recent_vs_older_grads.occupation_dissimilarity_range.pt - source The Budget Lab at Yale · default tier 6 · Budget Lab; short quotation
- source Budget Lab at Yale AI labour-market tracker (dissimilarity index chart data) · default tier 6 · Budget Lab; data reproduced with attribution
- proxy deployment, welfare · cadence quarterly · valve adoption to adaptation
Normal = within one and a half times the pre-AI baseline's reading at the same age (the January 2021 baseline sat near 5 pp forty months in); fast = 10 pp or more, twice the pre-AI pace. Between is `emerging`.
Applied to yale_budget_lab_data.us_workers.occupation_dissimilarity_pp.m.
Latest readings
Why this status, and its history
The index now comes from the chart data of the Budget Lab's AI labour-market tracker, current to August 2026: 5.50 pp forty-five months after November 2022, inside the normal band (7.5 pp or less), against 5.17 pp for the January 2021 baseline at the same age. The event before cited the March 2026 row of the Lab's workbook, which the tracker's data revise from 5.26 to 5.256.
- 2026-09-23consistent with normal to consistent with normalconf 65 → 65 · Claude (model)
The index now comes from the chart data of the Budget Lab's AI labour-market tracker, current to August 2026: 5.50 pp forty-five months after November 2022, inside the normal band (7.5 pp or less), against 5.17 pp for the January 2021 baseline at the same age. The event before cited the March 2026 row of the Lab's workbook, which the tracker's data revise from 5.26 to 5.256.
Weighed against it: Occupational mix moves slowly by construction, and a CPS-based index cannot see task change within an occupation. The index between recent and older graduates read above 33 from March to August 2026, its longest run above that line since 2021, which the Lab's September update does not read as disruption.
- 2026-09-10unmeasured to consistent with normalconf — → 65 · the evaluator (automatic)
Evaluator: 5.26 (Budget Lab at Yale labour-market update workbook (dissimilarity index), 2026-03-01) is inside the consistent band (hi=7.5). Auto-reason; band rationale: Normal = within one and a half times the pre-AI baseline's reading at the same age (the January 2021 baseline sat near 5 pp forty months in); fast = 10 pp or more, twice the pre-AI pace. Between is `emerging`.
source1
Why this confidence
Rests on 183 observations from Budget Lab at Yale AI labour-market tracker (dissimilarity index chart data), The Budget Lab at Yale; best evidence tier 6, grade B; current.
Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; 0–49 limited or vague evidence.