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Adaptation · Labour & consumers

US labour share of income, year on year

Year-on-year change in the BLS nonfarm business labor share index (PRS85006173), derived metric bls_labor_share_yoy. The share of output paid to labour rather than capital.

Reason through this

The reading

The share is falling faster than a cycle alone explains, though from a post-pandemic high; it is the one adaptation series that is not at trend.

Every readingeach dot links to its record
0.1% · 2018-03-31 · measured-0.5% · 2018-06-30 · measured-0.2% · 2018-09-30 · measured-0.1% · 2018-12-31 · measured1.5% · 2019-03-31 · measured0.6% · 2019-06-30 · measured-0.9% · 2019-09-30 · measured-0.5% · 2019-12-31 · measured0.8% · 2020-03-31 · measured4.0% · 2020-06-30 · measured1.1% · 2020-09-30 · measured3.2% · 2020-12-31 · measured-1.5% · 2021-03-31 · measured-3.6% · 2021-06-30 · measured0.7% · 2021-09-30 · measured-3.1% · 2021-12-31 · measured-1.5% · 2022-03-31 · measured-2.9% · 2022-06-30 · measured-2.6% · 2022-09-30 · measured-2.7% · 2022-12-31 · measured-2.6% · 2023-03-31 · measured-0.8% · 2023-06-30 · measured-2.0% · 2023-09-30 · measured-0.7% · 2023-12-31 · measured0.3% · 2024-03-31 · measured-0.1% · 2024-06-30 · measured0.4% · 2024-09-30 · measured0.7% · 2024-12-31 · measured1.0% · 2025-03-31 · measured0.1% · 2025-06-30 · measured-0.7% · 2025-09-30 · measured-1.3% · 2025-12-31 · measured-3.1% · 2026-03-31 · measured-3.4% · 2026-06-30 · measured
a readingnormal rangefast range
measured

34 readings drawn from the derived metric bls_labor_share_yoy; 38 observations in the evidence.

Derived (bls_labor_share_yoy) from: BLS productivity and costs; total factor productivity. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Productivity and Costs (PRS85006092/93, PRS85006173), Total Factor Productivity (MPU4910012).

The numbers
as ofreadingvaluerecord
2026-06-30—-3.4%measured
2026-03-31—-3.1%measured
2025-12-31—-1.3%measured
2025-09-30—-0.7%measured
2025-06-30—0.1%measured
2025-03-31—1.0%measured
2024-12-31—0.7%measured
2024-09-30—0.4%measured
2024-06-30—-0.1%measured
2024-03-31—0.3%measured
2023-12-31—-0.7%measured
2023-09-30—-2.0%measured
2023-06-30—-0.8%measured
2023-03-31—-2.6%measured
2022-12-31—-2.7%measured
2022-09-30—-2.6%measured
2022-06-30—-2.9%measured
2022-03-31—-1.5%measured
2021-12-31—-3.1%measured
2021-09-30—0.7%measured
2021-06-30—-3.6%measured
2021-03-31—-1.5%measured
2020-12-31—3.2%measured
2020-09-30—1.1%measured
2020-06-30—4.0%measured
2020-03-31—0.8%measured
2019-12-31—-0.5%measured
2019-09-30—-0.9%measured
2019-06-30—0.6%measured
2019-03-31—1.5%measured
2018-12-31—-0.1%measured
2018-09-30—-0.2%measured
2018-06-30—-0.5%measured
2018-03-31—0.1%measured

Why it matters

If AI shifts surplus from wages to capital, this is where it shows in official data. The Anthropic Institute's September 2026 scenarios put the labour share at 60% today and 45% by 2030 under extreme change, and unchanged under modest change.

What cuts against it

The index has fallen before without AI (2000s); wage lags after an inflation shock push it down mechanically; quarterly readings are revised and the 2025 peak was unusual.

How it is measured

Normal = year-on-year moves of at most 2%, the size of ordinary cyclical swings in the index; fast = 5% or worse a year, roughly the pace that takes the share from 60% to 45% by 2030 (the extreme scenario). Between is `emerging`.

Applied to metric:bls_labor_share_yoy.

Derived rows (34)
as ofdimsvalueinputs
2026-06-30-3.4%sources12
2026-03-31-3.1%sources12
2025-12-31-1.3%sources12
2025-09-30-0.7%sources12
2025-06-300.1%sources12
2025-03-311.0%sources12
2024-12-310.7%sources12
2024-09-300.4%sources12
2024-06-30-0.1%sources12
2024-03-310.3%sources12
2023-12-31-0.7%sources12
2023-09-30-2.0%sources12
2023-06-30-0.8%sources12
2023-03-31-2.6%sources12
2022-12-31-2.7%sources12
2022-09-30-2.6%sources12
2022-06-30-2.9%sources12
2022-03-31-1.5%sources12
2021-12-31-3.1%sources12
2021-09-300.7%sources12
2021-06-30-3.6%sources12
2021-03-31-1.5%sources12
2020-12-313.2%sources12
2020-09-301.1%sources12
2020-06-304.0%sources12
2020-03-310.8%sources12
2019-12-31-0.5%sources12
2019-09-30-0.9%sources12
2019-06-300.6%sources12
2019-03-311.5%sources12
2018-12-31-0.1%sources12
2018-09-30-0.2%sources12
2018-06-30-0.5%sources12
2018-03-310.1%sources12
Latest readings
  • 2026-06-30 · -3.4%as of 2026-06-30(2 obs)
  • 2026-03-31 · -3.1%as of 2026-03-31(2 obs)
  • 2025-12-31 · -1.3%as of 2025-12-31(2 obs)
  • 2025-09-30 · -0.7%as of 2025-09-30(2 obs)
  • 2025-06-30 · 0.1%as of 2025-06-30(2 obs)
  • 2025-03-31 · 1.0%as of 2025-03-31(2 obs)
Why this status, and its history

BLS nonfarm business labor share index (PRS85006173), year on year: Sep 2025 -0.7%, Dec 2025 -1.3%, Mar 2026 -3.1%, Jun 2026 -3.4%. Below the normal band floor (-2%) but above the fast band (-5%). The index also fell this fast in 2021-23 after the inflation shock, so the reading is `emerging`, not a break. Initial seed.

  1. 2026-09-10unmeasured to emergingconf — → 65 · initial seed (model-drafted)

    BLS nonfarm business labor share index (PRS85006173), year on year: Sep 2025 -0.7%, Dec 2025 -1.3%, Mar 2026 -3.1%, Jun 2026 -3.4%. Below the normal band floor (-2%) but above the fast band (-5%). The index also fell this fast in 2021-23 after the inflation shock, so the reading is `emerging`, not a break. Initial seed.

    sources12
Why this confidence

Rests on 38 observations from BLS productivity and costs; total factor productivity; best evidence tier 4, grade A; current.

Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; 0–49 limited or vague evidence.

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