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Adaptation · Labour & consumers

US labour share of income, year on year

emerging65/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalisegrade Alagging

1What this measures

Year-on-year change in the BLS nonfarm business labor share index (PRS85006173), derived metric bls_labor_share_yoy. The share of output paid to labour rather than capital.

Why it matters. If AI shifts surplus from wages to capital, this is where it shows in official data. The Anthropic Institute's September 2026 scenarios put the labour share at 60% today and 45% by 2030 under extreme change, and unchanged under modest change.

Proxy types
welfare
Unit
share
Cadence
quarterly
Valve
leak

2How we track this

Normal band
≥ -2.0%
Fast band
≤ -5.0%
Falsifying
—

Normal = year-on-year moves of at most 2%, the size of ordinary cyclical swings in the index; fast = 5% or worse a year, roughly the pace that takes the share from 60% to 45% by 2030 (the extreme scenario). Between is `emerging`.

Applied to metric:bls_labor_share_yoy.

3Tracker interpretation

The share is falling faster than a cycle alone explains, though from a post-pandemic high; it is the one adaptation series that is not at trend.

4Evidence

Latest point
-3.4%as of 2026-06-30(2 obs)
Value the bands apply to
-3.4%as of 2026-06-30(2 obs)

38 observations. Hollow points are disputed (see counterevidence). Every point links to its observation.

Derived rows (34)
as ofdimsvalueinputs
2026-06-30-3.4%obs:7edc9801obs:d589259f
2026-03-31-3.1%obs:d58c97c0obs:d814011d
2025-12-31-1.3%obs:46dc8923obs:ad0d5332
2025-09-30-0.7%obs:44055368obs:930b92af
2025-06-300.1%obs:0854f431obs:7edc9801
2025-03-311.0%obs:cd3deefdobs:d58c97c0
2024-12-310.7%obs:ad0d5332obs:f674ba78
2024-09-300.4%obs:930b92afobs:93490d17
2024-06-30-0.1%obs:0854f431obs:66729e34
2024-03-310.3%obs:17b415ecobs:cd3deefd
2023-12-31-0.7%obs:0d310e52obs:f674ba78
2023-09-30-2.0%obs:36f8fd76obs:93490d17
2023-06-30-0.8%obs:66729e34obs:8684269d
2023-03-31-2.6%obs:17b415ecobs:1bdcf53a
2022-12-31-2.7%obs:0d310e52obs:ca8d313b
2022-09-30-2.6%obs:36f8fd76obs:6978a4a6
2022-06-30-2.9%obs:8684269dobs:ad0cbb17
2022-03-31-1.5%obs:1bdcf53aobs:f9280d65
2021-12-31-3.1%obs:71f4fa63obs:ca8d313b
2021-09-300.7%obs:0b87fd31obs:6978a4a6
2021-06-30-3.6%obs:ad0cbb17obs:ba35e847
2021-03-31-1.5%obs:d881ba8cobs:f9280d65
2020-12-313.2%obs:71f4fa63obs:ee6fd90e
2020-09-301.1%obs:0b87fd31obs:af787e87
2020-06-304.0%obs:5251fe69obs:ba35e847
2020-03-310.8%obs:82367429obs:d881ba8c
2019-12-31-0.5%obs:bb1f5a01obs:ee6fd90e
2019-09-30-0.9%obs:0888ad4dobs:af787e87
2019-06-300.6%obs:5251fe69obs:c31d5a61
2019-03-311.5%obs:82367429obs:83cef2e4
2018-12-31-0.1%obs:0c8f8833obs:bb1f5a01
2018-09-30-0.2%obs:0888ad4dobs:dbec9c79
2018-06-30-0.5%obs:c31d5a61obs:e6c7b7e0
2018-03-310.1%obs:0bf3003eobs:83cef2e4

5Status and reasoning

emergingsince 2026-09-10 · claude-initial-seed

BLS nonfarm business labor share index (PRS85006173), year on year: Sep 2025 -0.7%, Dec 2025 -1.3%, Mar 2026 -3.1%, Jun 2026 -3.4%. Below the normal band floor (-2%) but above the fast band (-5%). The index also fell this fast in 2021-23 after the inflation shock, so the reading is `emerging`, not a break. Initial seed.

6Timeline notes

  • 2026-06-30 · -3.4%as of 2026-06-30(2 obs)
  • 2026-03-31 · -3.1%as of 2026-03-31(2 obs)
  • 2025-12-31 · -1.3%as of 2025-12-31(2 obs)
  • 2025-09-30 · -0.7%as of 2025-09-30(2 obs)
  • 2025-06-30 · 0.1%as of 2025-06-30(2 obs)
  • 2025-03-31 · 1.0%as of 2025-03-31(2 obs)

7Counterevidence

What cuts against this reading

The index has fallen before without AI (2000s); wage lags after an inflation shock push it down mechanically; quarterly readings are revised and the 2025 peak was unusual.

8Update history

  1. 2026-09-10unmeasured to emergingconf — → 65 · claude-initial-seed

    BLS nonfarm business labor share index (PRS85006173), year on year: Sep 2025 -0.7%, Dec 2025 -1.3%, Mar 2026 -3.1%, Jun 2026 -3.4%. Below the normal band floor (-2%) but above the fast band (-5%). The index also fell this fast in 2021-23 after the inflation shock, so the reading is `emerging`, not a break. Initial seed.

    obs:7edc9801obs:d589259f

9Confidence

65 / 95 — mixed or hard to operationalise

Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; below 50 limited or vague.

10Related