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Adaptation · Labour & consumers

Recent-graduate unemployment rate (NY Fed)

Unemployment rate for recent college graduates aged 22–27 with a bachelor's degree, from the New York Fed's labour-market tracker.

Reason through this

The reading

Elevated for the cycle but inside the historical range; not separable from the wider hiring slowdown.

Every readingeach dot links to its record
us recent grads · 5.6% · 2026-06-30 · measured
a readingnormal rangefast range
measured

1 reading drawn from nyfed.us_recent_grads.unemployment_rate.pt, one of 2 series listed under How it is measured; 2 observations in the evidence.

Source: The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates.

The numbers
as ofreadingvaluerecord
2026-06-30us recent grads5.6%measured

Why it matters

The macro counterpart of the entry-level canaries signal; if AI is closing the door on new graduates, it shows here first among official series.

What cuts against it

The rate rose before AI deployment at scale; it is highly cyclical; the exposed-vs-unexposed graduate gap (SIEPR) is small.

  1. 2026-03-31cuts againstgrade B, evidence tier 6source

    SIEPR: since 2022 unemployment in the most AI-exposed fifth of workers rose 0.77 points, slightly less than the 0.85 points in the least exposed.

    “As shown in Figure 1, the unemployment rate for the top quintile of AI-exposed workers has risen by 0.77 percentage points since 2022, while the unemployment rate for the least-exposed workers rose slightly more, by 0.85 percentage points over the same period.”

How it is measured

Normal = up to 6%, the top of the 2010s range for recent graduates; fast = 8% or more outside a recession. Between is `emerging`.

Applied to nyfed.us_recent_grads.unemployment_rate.pt.

Latest readings
  • 2026-06-30 us_recent_grads · 5.6%as of 2026-06-30
Why this status, and its history

NY Fed, The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates, 2026:Q2: unemployment rate for recent graduates about 5.6%, underemployment 42%. Inside the normal band (<=6%), at the top of the 2010s range. Initial seed.

  1. 2026-09-10unmeasured to consistent with normalconf — → 75 · initial seed (model-drafted)

    NY Fed, The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates, 2026:Q2: unemployment rate for recent graduates about 5.6%, underemployment 42%. Inside the normal band (<=6%), at the top of the 2010s range. Initial seed.

    source1
Why this confidence

Rests on 2 observations from Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (policy briefs), The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates; best evidence tier 4, grade A; current.

Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; 0–49 limited or vague evidence.

Predictions that lean on this