California unemployment claims from AI-exposed occupations

Month-on-month change in the three-month moving average of new initial unemployment claims from high-AI-exposure occupations in California (potential-exposure measure), from the California Policy Lab and EDD tracker.

Reason through this

The reading

Claims from exposed occupations are drifting up about a percent a month, in line with California's overall labour market, not ahead of it.

Every readingeach dot links to its record

a readingnormal rangefast range

reported

114 readings drawn from the derived metric cait_high_exposure_claims_3mma_mom; 119 observations in the evidence.

Derived (cait_high_exposure_claims_3mma_mom) from: California AI-Unemployment Tracker (CAIT). Hyman, von Wachter et al. (2026), Tracking AI-Related Job Loss Using Unemployment Insurance Claims Data in California, California Policy Lab.

The numbers

as of	reading	value	record
2026-09-30	—	-4.4%	reported
2026-08-31	—	-1.2%	reported
2026-07-31	—	1.0%	reported
2026-06-30	—	1.3%	reported
2026-05-31	—	1.5%	reported
2026-04-30	—	-2.1%	reported
2026-03-31	—	-2.2%	reported
2026-02-28	—	-0.4%	reported
2026-01-31	—	-0.2%	reported
2025-12-31	—	3.2%	reported
2025-11-30	—	-1.8%	reported
2025-10-31	—	-0.4%	reported
2025-09-30	—	-4.6%	reported
2025-08-31	—	-1.6%	reported
2025-07-31	—	0.1%	reported
2025-06-30	—	2.2%	reported
2025-05-31	—	0.2%	reported
2025-04-30	—	-2.0%	reported
2025-03-31	—	0.0%	reported
2025-02-28	—	0.9%	reported
2025-01-31	—	4.0%	reported
2024-12-31	—	2.3%	reported
2024-11-30	—	-0.6%	reported
2024-10-31	—	-2.5%	reported
2024-09-30	—	-4.3%	reported
2024-08-31	—	-1.8%	reported
2024-07-31	—	0.2%	reported
2024-06-30	—	0.8%	reported
2024-05-31	—	1.4%	reported
2024-04-30	—	-3.8%	reported
2024-03-31	—	2.2%	reported
2024-02-29	—	0.5%	reported
2024-01-31	—	4.5%	reported
2023-12-31	—	1.4%	reported
2023-11-30	—	-2.0%	reported
2023-10-31	—	-3.9%	reported
2023-09-30	—	-8.0%	reported
2023-08-31	—	-3.7%	reported
2023-07-31	—	3.5%	reported
2023-06-30	—	4.5%	reported
2023-05-31	—	6.6%	reported
2023-04-30	—	-4.1%	reported
2023-03-31	—	3.9%	reported
2023-02-28	—	2.3%	reported
2023-01-31	—	11.9%	reported
2022-12-31	—	4.6%	reported
2022-11-30	—	-1.2%	reported
2022-10-31	—	-1.8%	reported
2022-09-30	—	-10.9%	reported
2022-08-31	—	-3.6%	reported
2022-07-31	—	1.1%	reported
2022-06-30	—	9.2%	reported
2022-05-31	—	10.8%	reported
2022-04-30	—	-4.8%	reported
2022-03-31	—	-3.9%	reported
2022-02-28	—	-6.8%	reported
2022-01-31	—	-6.3%	reported
2021-12-31	—	-12.8%	reported
2021-11-30	—	-21.5%	reported
2021-10-31	—	-14.3%	reported
2021-09-30	—	-8.2%	reported
2021-08-31	—	-9.2%	reported
2021-07-31	—	-18.2%	reported
2021-06-30	—	-12.0%	reported
2021-05-31	—	-2.4%	reported
2021-04-30	—	3.7%	reported
2021-03-31	—	-8.8%	reported
2021-02-28	—	-8.0%	reported
2021-01-31	—	-5.3%	reported
2020-12-31	—	-2.5%	reported
2020-11-30	—	-4.0%	reported
2020-10-31	—	-12.3%	reported
2020-09-30	—	-10.0%	reported
2020-08-31	—	-8.1%	reported
2020-07-31	—	-29.6%	reported
2020-06-30	—	-8.0%	reported
2020-05-31	—	22.3%	reported
2020-04-30	—	117.8%	reported
2020-03-31	—	254.3%	reported
2020-02-29	—	1.0%	reported
2020-01-31	—	6.7%	reported
2019-12-31	—	2.6%	reported
2019-11-30	—	-2.5%	reported
2019-10-31	—	-2.7%	reported
2019-09-30	—	-2.5%	reported
2019-08-31	—	-2.0%	reported
2019-07-31	—	0.1%	reported
2019-06-30	—	-0.6%	reported
2019-05-31	—	2.4%	reported
2019-04-30	—	-9.2%	reported
2019-03-31	—	-1.1%	reported
2019-02-28	—	0.7%	reported
2019-01-31	—	10.3%	reported
2018-12-31	—	6.0%	reported
2018-11-30	—	-3.1%	reported
2018-10-31	—	-1.1%	reported
2018-09-30	—	-6.2%	reported
2018-08-31	—	-3.4%	reported
2018-07-31	—	-1.2%	reported
2018-06-30	—	0.0%	reported
2018-05-31	—	5.8%	reported
2018-04-30	—	-6.4%	reported
2018-03-31	—	1.0%	reported
2018-02-28	—	-2.9%	reported
2018-01-31	—	6.8%	reported
2017-12-31	—	1.3%	reported
2017-11-30	—	-2.1%	reported
2017-10-31	—	-1.8%	reported
2017-09-30	—	-4.9%	reported
2017-08-31	—	-0.8%	reported
2017-07-31	—	1.1%	reported
2017-06-30	—	0.4%	reported
2017-05-31	—	0.9%	reported
2017-04-30	—	-5.5%	reported

Why it matters

Administrative claims data, not a survey and not a profile scrape; the closest thing to a real-time separations signal.

What cuts against it

One state; exposure measured at occupation level; claims respond to the business cycle first.

How it is measured

series cait.ca_high_exposure.claims_3mma_mom.m
series edd.ca_high_exposure.claims_3mma_mom.m
derived metric cait_high_exposure_claims_3mma_mom (formula in the semantic layer)
source California AI-Unemployment Tracker (CAIT) · default tier 6 · California Policy Lab; monthly claims workbook, cited as the Lab suggests
source California EDD, AI and the economy · default tier 4 · Public record (State of California)
proxy deployment, welfare · cadence monthly · valve adoption to adaptation

Normal = monthly moves of up to 2% in the smoothed series, the noise floor of claims data; fast = 5% or more month on month, sustained. Between is `emerging`.

Applied to metric:cait_high_exposure_claims_3mma_mom.

Derived rows (114)

as of	value	inputs
2026-09-30	-4.4%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2026-08-31	-1.2%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2026-07-31	1.0%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2026-06-30	1.3%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2026-05-31	1.5%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2026-04-30	-2.1%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2026-03-31	-2.2%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2026-02-28	-0.4%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2026-01-31	-0.2%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2025-12-31	3.2%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2025-11-30	-1.8%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2025-10-31	-0.4%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2025-09-30	-4.6%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2025-08-31	-1.6%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2025-07-31	0.1%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2025-06-30	2.2%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2025-05-31	0.2%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2025-04-30	-2.0%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2025-03-31	0.0%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2025-02-28	0.9%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2025-01-31	4.0%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2024-12-31	2.3%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2024-11-30	-0.6%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2024-10-31	-2.5%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2024-09-30	-4.3%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2024-08-31	-1.8%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2024-07-31	0.2%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2024-06-30	0.8%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2024-05-31	1.4%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2024-04-30	-3.8%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2024-03-31	2.2%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2024-02-29	0.5%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2024-01-31	4.5%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2023-12-31	1.4%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2023-11-30	-2.0%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2023-10-31	-3.9%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2023-09-30	-8.0%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2023-08-31	-3.7%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2023-07-31	3.5%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2023-06-30	4.5%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2023-05-31	6.6%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2023-04-30	-4.1%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2023-03-31	3.9%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2023-02-28	2.3%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2023-01-31	11.9%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2022-12-31	4.6%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2022-11-30	-1.2%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2022-10-31	-1.8%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2022-09-30	-10.9%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2022-08-31	-3.6%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2022-07-31	1.1%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2022-06-30	9.2%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2022-05-31	10.8%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2022-04-30	-4.8%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2022-03-31	-3.9%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2022-02-28	-6.8%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2022-01-31	-6.3%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2021-12-31	-12.8%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2021-11-30	-21.5%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2021-10-31	-14.3%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2021-09-30	-8.2%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2021-08-31	-9.2%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2021-07-31	-18.2%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2021-06-30	-12.0%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2021-05-31	-2.4%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2021-04-30	3.7%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2021-03-31	-8.8%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2021-02-28	-8.0%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2021-01-31	-5.3%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2020-12-31	-2.5%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2020-11-30	-4.0%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2020-10-31	-12.3%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2020-09-30	-10.0%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2020-08-31	-8.1%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2020-07-31	-29.6%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2020-06-30	-8.0%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2020-05-31	22.3%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2020-04-30	117.8%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2020-03-31	254.3%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2020-02-29	1.0%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2020-01-31	6.7%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2019-12-31	2.6%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2019-11-30	-2.5%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2019-10-31	-2.7%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2019-09-30	-2.5%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2019-08-31	-2.0%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2019-07-31	0.1%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2019-06-30	-0.6%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2019-05-31	2.4%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2019-04-30	-9.2%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2019-03-31	-1.1%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2019-02-28	0.7%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2019-01-31	10.3%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2018-12-31	6.0%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2018-11-30	-3.1%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2018-10-31	-1.1%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2018-09-30	-6.2%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2018-08-31	-3.4%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2018-07-31	-1.2%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2018-06-30	0.0%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2018-05-31	5.8%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2018-04-30	-6.4%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2018-03-31	1.0%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2018-02-28	-2.9%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2018-01-31	6.8%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2017-12-31	1.3%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2017-11-30	-2.1%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2017-10-31	-1.8%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2017-09-30	-4.9%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2017-08-31	-0.8%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2017-07-31	1.1%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2017-06-30	0.4%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2017-05-31	0.9%	sources1 2 3+1 more
2017-04-30	-5.5%	sources1 2 3+1 more

Latest readings

2026-09-30 · -4.4%as of 2026-09-30(4 obs)
2026-08-31 · -1.2%as of 2026-08-31(4 obs)
2026-07-31 · 1.0%as of 2026-07-31(4 obs)
2026-06-30 · 1.3%as of 2026-06-30(4 obs)
2026-05-31 · 1.5%as of 2026-05-31(4 obs)
2026-04-30 · -2.1%as of 2026-04-30(4 obs)

Why this status, and its history

California AI-Unemployment Tracker, July 2026 data (California Policy Lab; identical release on the EDD site): the 3-month moving average of high-AI-exposure initial claims rose about 1.0% month on month (52,300 to 52,800). Inside the normal band (<=2%). Initial seed.

2026-09-10unmeasured to consistent with normalconf — → 70 · initial seed (model-drafted)
California AI-Unemployment Tracker, July 2026 data (California Policy Lab; identical release on the EDD site): the 3-month moving average of high-AI-exposure initial claims rose about 1.0% month on month (52,300 to 52,800). Inside the normal band (<=2%). Initial seed.
source1

Why this confidence

Rests on 119 observations from California AI-Unemployment Tracker (CAIT), California EDD, AI and the economy; best evidence tier 4, grade A; current.

Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; 0–49 limited or vague evidence.