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Stack / Model / sub-layer 5

Frontier labs

Indicators

Frontier-lab revenue run-ratesgrade C
concentratingcoincident55/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
$40.0Bas of 2026-08-13
Lab recoupment ratiograde C
emerginglagging50/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
0.22×as of 2026-08-13(12 obs)
Price per unit of capability (cheapest METR-hour on OpenRouter)grade A
not yet measurablecoincident40/95 confidence, limited or vague
$0.30as of 2026-09-10(32 obs)
Frontier labs' share of tracked venture dollarsgrade A
stableleading50/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
94.8%as of 2026-06-30(32 obs)
Frontier lab valuation to run-rate multiplegrade C
emergingleading45/95 confidence, limited or vague
28.3×as of 2026-06-16(10 obs)
Lab vertical integration (acquisitions and acquihires, trailing four quarters)grade A
concentratingleading55/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
10as of 2026-09-30(11 obs)
Enterprise multi-model usage share (Menlo)grade B
not yet measurablecoincident45/95 confidence, limited or vague
60.0%as of 2023-11-10
Model-layer token concentration on OpenRouter (HHI, top table)grade B
not yet measurablecoincident40/95 confidence, limited or vague
0.11 indexas of 2026-09-09(19 obs)
Internal-to-public deployment gap at the frontiergrade C
consistent with normalleading45/95 confidence, limited or vague
4.00 monthsas of 2026-06-30

Venture flow

$10.0B
23-03
$750M
23-06
$2.1B
23-12
$4.8B
24-03
$5.0B
24-06
$16.6B
24-12
$14.5B
25-03
$5.3B
25-06
$21.3B
25-09
$39.1B
25-12
$172B
26-03
$80.0B
26-06

Primary-round dollars per calendar quarter: Form D amount sold where the entity files, Epoch's press-compiled rounds otherwise. Amendments replace their originals; SPVs, secondaries and debt are excluded.

Entities · 7

EntityRoleSinceVerifiedLatest observation
Anthropicprimary—● yesno sustained, AI-attributable 2x acceleration observed · rd_acceleration_2x_observed.pt · 2026-09-01
Google DeepMindprimary—○ not yetnone
Meta PlatformsCIK 0001326801primary—● yes$60.8B · revenue.q · 2026-06-30
OpenAIprimary—● yesPachocki: voluntary slowdowns should become commonplace until shared safety bars exist (6 Sep 2026) · context.pt · 2026-09-06
xAICIK 0002079267primary—● yes$230B · post_money_usd.pt · 2026-01-06
Alphabet Inc.CIK 0001652044secondary—● yes$24.8B · cloud.revenue.q · 2026-06-30
Scale AI
49% acquired by Meta in June 2025; human-data business continues.
secondary2025-06-01○ not yetnone

Seed lists come from the capture brief and are verified against filings one by one. A name here is not a claim about size or funding until an observation attaches.