Frontier lab valuation to run-rate multiple
1What this measures
Sum of frontier labs' latest post-money valuations divided by the sum of their latest annualised run-rates, at each new valuation date, from Epoch's press-compiled rounds and revenue reports. Derived metric post_money_to_arr_multiple.
Why it matters. The market's expected-rent multiple for the model layer. Thirty to forty times says durable rents are priced in; compression toward software multiples says commoditisation is.
- Proxy types
- capital_flow, price
- Unit
- ratio
- Cadence
- quarterly
2How we track this
- derived metric
post_money_to_arr_multiple(formula in the semantic layer)
Direction over 3 periods, dead-band 3.00×; higher = concentrating.
Three valuation events; a move under 3x is noise in press-reported run-rates. Rising = the market pricing more durable rents into the labs.
Applied to metric:post_money_to_arr_multiple.
3Tracker interpretation
Run-rates lag valuations by months, so the multiple overstates when revenue is growing fast; the direction is still informative.
4Evidence
Direction over the last 3 periods; the band is ±3.00× around the window's first point. Higher reads concentrating.
48 observations. Hollow points are disputed (see counterevidence). Every point links to its observation.
Derived rows (25)
5Status and reasoning
Epoch's compilation of press-reported rounds and run-rates: the frontier labs' summed post-money over summed run-rate was 33x at end-March 2026, 26x after the April valuations and 28x after Anthropic's May Series H ($965B post-money on a $47-65B run-rate). Three events inside the 3x dead band read stable, but a single tier-5 source caps the status at emerging until a second compilation (or filings) corroborates. Initial seed.
6Timeline notes
7Counterevidence
What cuts against this reading
Single source (Epoch's compilation of press reports); run-rates annualise one month; post-money valuations include committed but undrawn capital.
8Update history
- 2026-09-10unmeasured to emergingconf — → 45 · evaluate
Epoch's compilation of press-reported rounds and run-rates: the frontier labs' summed post-money over summed run-rate was 33x at end-March 2026, 26x after the April valuations and 28x after Anthropic's May Series H ($965B post-money on a $47-65B run-rate). Three events inside the 3x dead band read stable, but a single tier-5 source caps the status at emerging until a second compilation (or filings) corroborates. Initial seed.
9Confidence
45 / 95 — limited or vague evidence
Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; below 50 limited or vague.
10Related
- Frontier-lab revenue run-rates concentrating
- Frontier labs' share of tracked venture dollars stable