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Frontier lab valuation to run-rate multiple

Sum of frontier labs' latest post-money valuations divided by the sum of their latest annualised run-rates, at each new valuation date, from Epoch's press-compiled rounds and revenue reports. Derived metric post_money_to_arr_multiple.

Reason through this

The reading

Run-rates lag valuations by months, so the multiple overstates when revenue is growing fast; the direction is still informative.

Direction over the last 4 readingseach dot links to its record
135× · 2023-04-26 · estimate135× · 2023-05-23 · estimate135× · 2023-06-13 · estimate22.5× · 2023-12-11 · estimate21.8× · 2024-01-11 · estimate21.8× · 2024-02-27 · estimate21.8× · 2024-05-27 · estimate21.8× · 2024-06-11 · estimate42.9× · 2024-10-02 · estimate52.6× · 2024-11-20 · estimate37.6× · 2025-03-03 · estimate53.0× · 2025-03-31 · estimate38.8× · 2025-06-30 · estimate28.2× · 2025-08-01 · estimate34.8× · 2025-09-02 · estimate35.3× · 2025-09-09 · estimate23.5× · 2026-01-06 · estimate23.6× · 2026-01-08 · estimate25.6× · 2026-02-12 · estimate40.4× · 2026-02-27 · estimate32.9× · 2026-03-31 · estimate26.5× · 2026-04-20 · estimate26.5× · 2026-04-24 · estimate28.3× · 2026-05-28 · estimate28.3× · 2026-06-16 · estimate19.5× · 2026-09-15 · estimate16.3× · 2026-10-22 · estimate
in the rule's windowearliermoves within ±3.00 read as stable, and a move counts only if more than half the steps go its way; this window moved −12.0 and 2 of 3 steps fell; higher reads concentrating
estimate

27 readings drawn from the derived metric post_money_to_arr_multiple; 61 observations in the evidence.

Derived (post_money_to_arr_multiple) from: Epoch AI data hub — AI companies. Epoch AI, 'Data on AI Companies' (CC BY 4.0), epoch.ai/data.

The numbers
as ofreadingvaluerecord
2026-10-22—16.3×estimate
2026-09-15—19.5×estimate
2026-06-16—28.3×estimate
2026-05-28—28.3×estimate
2026-04-24—26.5×estimate
2026-04-20—26.5×estimate
2026-03-31—32.9×estimate
2026-02-27—40.4×estimate
2026-02-12—25.6×estimate
2026-01-08—23.6×estimate
2026-01-06—23.5×estimate
2025-09-09—35.3×estimate
2025-09-02—34.8×estimate
2025-08-01—28.2×estimate
2025-06-30—38.8×estimate
2025-03-31—53.0×estimate
2025-03-03—37.6×estimate
2024-11-20—52.6×estimate
2024-10-02—42.9×estimate
2024-06-11—21.8×estimate
2024-05-27—21.8×estimate
2024-02-27—21.8×estimate
2024-01-11—21.8×estimate
2023-12-11—22.5×estimate
2023-06-13—135×estimate
2023-05-23—135×estimate
2023-04-26—135×estimate

Why it matters

The market's expected-rent multiple for the model layer. Thirty to forty times says durable rents are priced in; compression toward software multiples says commoditisation is.

What cuts against it

Single source (Epoch's compilation of press reports); run-rates annualise one month; post-money valuations include committed but undrawn capital.

How it is measured
  • derived metric post_money_to_arr_multiple (formula in the semantic layer)
  • source Epoch AI data hub — AI companies · default tier 5 · CC BY 4.0
  • proxy capital_flow, price · cadence quarterly

Three valuation events; a move under 3x is noise in press-reported run-rates. Rising = the market pricing more durable rents into the labs.

Applied to metric:post_money_to_arr_multiple.

Derived rows (27)
as ofdimsvalueinputs
2026-10-2216.3×sources123+9 more
2026-09-1519.5×sources123+11 more
2026-06-1628.3×sources123+9 more
2026-05-2828.3×sources123+9 more
2026-04-2426.5×sources123+9 more
2026-04-2026.5×sources123+9 more
2026-03-3132.9×sources123+9 more
2026-02-2740.4×sources123+7 more
2026-02-1225.6×sources123+7 more
2026-01-0823.6×sources123+7 more
2026-01-0623.5×sources123+5 more
2025-09-0935.3×sources123+5 more
2025-09-0234.8×sources123+5 more
2025-08-0128.2×sources123+5 more
2025-06-3038.8×sources123+5 more
2025-03-3153.0×sources123+3 more
2025-03-0337.6×sources123+3 more
2024-11-2052.6×sources123+3 more
2024-10-0242.9×sources123+1 more
2024-06-1121.8×sources123+1 more
2024-05-2721.8×sources123+1 more
2024-02-2721.8×sources123+1 more
2024-01-1121.8×sources123+1 more
2023-12-1122.5×sources123+1 more
2023-06-13135×sources12
2023-05-23135×sources12
2023-04-26135×sources12
Latest readings
  • 2026-10-22 · 16.3×as of 2026-10-22(12 obs)
  • 2026-09-15 · 19.5×as of 2026-09-15(14 obs)
  • 2026-06-16 · 28.3×as of 2026-06-16(12 obs)
  • 2026-05-28 · 28.3×as of 2026-05-28(12 obs)
  • 2026-04-24 · 26.5×as of 2026-04-24(12 obs)
  • 2026-04-20 · 26.5×as of 2026-04-20(12 obs)
Why this status, and its history

Epoch's compilation of press-reported rounds and run-rates: the frontier labs' summed post-money over summed run-rate was 33x at end-March 2026, 26x after the April valuations and 28x after Anthropic's May Series H ($965B post-money on a $47-65B run-rate). Three events inside the 3x dead band read stable, but a single tier-5 source caps the status at emerging until a second compilation (or filings) corroborates. Initial seed.

  1. 2026-09-10unmeasured to emergingconf — → 45 · the evaluator (automatic)

    Epoch's compilation of press-reported rounds and run-rates: the frontier labs' summed post-money over summed run-rate was 33x at end-March 2026, 26x after the April valuations and 28x after Anthropic's May Series H ($965B post-money on a $47-65B run-rate). Three events inside the 3x dead band read stable, but a single tier-5 source caps the status at emerging until a second compilation (or filings) corroborates. Initial seed.

    sources123456+4 more
Why this confidence

Rests on 61 observations from Epoch AI data hub — AI companies; best evidence tier 5, grade C; current.

Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; 0–49 limited or vague evidence.