Frontier labs' share of tracked venture dollars
1What this measures
Frontier labs' share of all primary-round dollars across the tracked stack over the trailing four quarters, from Form D filings where entities file and Epoch's press-compiled rounds elsewhere. Derived metric frontier_share_of_venture_dollars.
Why it matters. Capital concentrating in the model layer's incumbents is the installation-phase pattern; capital spreading to applications and infrastructure is what a maturing stack looks like (P1 seed indicator 8).
- Proxy types
- capital_flow, market_structure
- Unit
- share
- Cadence
- quarterly
2How we track this
- derived metric
frontier_share_of_venture_dollars(formula in the semantic layer)
Direction over 4 periods, dead-band 5.0%; higher = concentrating.
Four quarters; a move under five points is a single round's timing. Rising = capital concentrating in the frontier labs.
Applied to metric:frontier_share_of_venture_dollars.
3Tracker interpretation
The denominator is the seed list, so the level is high by construction; the direction says whether the rest of the stack is catching up.
4Evidence
Direction over the last 4 periods; the band is ±5.0% around the window's first point. Higher reads concentrating.
102 observations. Hollow points are disputed (see counterevidence). Every point links to its observation.
Derived rows (14)
| as of | dims | value | inputs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 94.8% | obs:021fc48dobs:03a62453obs:08c5c905+29 more | |
| 2026-03-31 | 96.4% | obs:021fc48dobs:03a62453obs:0f018dc2+33 more | |
| 2025-12-31 | 92.6% | obs:021fc48dobs:14dda4d0obs:167d5724+29 more | |
| 2025-09-30 | 91.8% | obs:01bbf1a1obs:021fc48dobs:07752e0f+31 more | |
| 2025-06-30 | 91.7% | obs:01bbf1a1obs:07752e0fobs:171e2305+28 more | |
| 2025-03-31 | 89.7% | obs:01bbf1a1obs:01ea4c9dobs:07752e0f+25 more | |
| 2024-12-31 | 84.4% | obs:01bbf1a1obs:01ea4c9dobs:07752e0f+26 more | |
| 2024-09-30 | 73.8% | obs:01ea4c9dobs:0551e1cfobs:0b6123da+23 more | |
| 2024-06-30 | 75.0% | obs:01ea4c9dobs:0551e1cfobs:0b6123da+22 more | |
| 2024-03-31 | 74.5% | obs:04db6a55obs:0551e1cfobs:0b6123da+25 more | |
| 2023-12-31 | 91.2% | obs:04db6a55obs:0551e1cfobs:0b6123da+20 more | |
| 2023-09-30 | 95.3% | obs:04db6a55obs:254fc91cobs:28a3016c+12 more | |
| 2023-06-30 | 95.3% | obs:04db6a55obs:254fc91cobs:28a3016c+11 more | |
| 2023-03-31 | 99.4% | obs:254fc91cobs:5c9e78d4obs:ad9f66fa+1 more |
5Status and reasoning
Evaluator: 0.9479 (SEC EDGAR Form D (private offerings), 2026-06-30) reads stable over 4 periods with a dead band of 0.05. Auto-reason; rule rationale: Four quarters; a move under five points is a single round's timing. Rising = capital concentrating in the frontier labs.
The tracker's prior expectation was concentrating; the evaluator reads stable. The evaluator wins until a reviewed override.
6Timeline notes
7Counterevidence
What cuts against this reading
Frontier rounds come mostly from press (Epoch, tier 5) because the labs raise through vehicles that do not file Form D; many seed companies have no CIK matched yet, so the denominator undercounts.
8Update history
- 2026-09-10unmeasured to stableconf — → 50 · evaluate
Evaluator: 0.9479 (SEC EDGAR Form D (private offerings), 2026-06-30) reads stable over 4 periods with a dead band of 0.05. Auto-reason; rule rationale: Four quarters; a move under five points is a single round's timing. Rising = capital concentrating in the frontier labs.
9Confidence
50 / 95 — mixed or hard to operationalise
Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; below 50 limited or vague.
10Related
- Circular financing scale concentrating
- Frontier lab valuation to run-rate multiple emerging