Frontier labs' share of tracked venture dollars
Frontier labs' share of all primary-round dollars across the tracked stack over the trailing four quarters, from Form D filings where entities file and Epoch's press-compiled rounds elsewhere. Derived metric frontier_share_of_venture_dollars.
Reason through thisThe reading
The denominator is the seed list, so the level is high by construction; the direction says whether the rest of the stack is catching up.
15 readings drawn from the derived metric frontier_share_of_venture_dollars; 117 observations in the evidence.
Derived (frontier_share_of_venture_dollars) from: Epoch AI data hub — AI companies; SEC EDGAR Form D (private offerings). Epoch AI, 'Data on AI Companies' (CC BY 4.0), epoch.ai/data. SEC EDGAR Form D data sets.
The numbers
| as of | reading | value | record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | — | 91.2% | estimate |
| 2026-06-30 | — | 94.1% | estimate |
| 2026-03-31 | — | 95.9% | estimate |
| 2025-12-31 | — | 92.4% | estimate |
| 2025-09-30 | — | 91.7% | estimate |
| 2025-06-30 | — | 91.6% | estimate |
| 2025-03-31 | — | 89.7% | estimate |
| 2024-12-31 | — | 84.4% | estimate |
| 2024-09-30 | — | 73.8% | estimate |
| 2024-06-30 | — | 75.0% | estimate |
| 2024-03-31 | — | 74.5% | estimate |
| 2023-12-31 | — | 91.2% | estimate |
| 2023-09-30 | — | 95.3% | estimate |
| 2023-06-30 | — | 95.3% | estimate |
| 2023-03-31 | — | 99.4% | estimate |
Why it matters
Capital concentrating in the model layer's incumbents is the installation-phase pattern; capital spreading to applications and infrastructure is what a maturing stack looks like (P1 seed indicator 8).
What cuts against it
Frontier rounds come mostly from press (Epoch, tier 5) because the labs raise through vehicles that do not file Form D; many seed companies have no CIK matched yet, so the denominator undercounts.
How it is measured
- derived metric
frontier_share_of_venture_dollars(formula in the semantic layer) - source Epoch AI data hub — AI companies · default tier 5 · CC BY 4.0
- source SEC EDGAR Form D (private offerings) · default tier 4 · Public domain (U.S. government work)
- proxy capital_flow, market_structure · cadence quarterly
Four quarters; a move under five points is a single round's timing. Rising = capital concentrating in the frontier labs.
Applied to metric:frontier_share_of_venture_dollars.
Derived rows (15)
| as of | dims | value | inputs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 91.2% | sources123+38 more | |
| 2026-06-30 | 94.1% | sources123+36 more | |
| 2026-03-31 | 95.9% | sources123+37 more | |
| 2025-12-31 | 92.4% | sources123+31 more | |
| 2025-09-30 | 91.7% | sources123+32 more | |
| 2025-06-30 | 91.6% | sources123+29 more | |
| 2025-03-31 | 89.7% | sources123+25 more | |
| 2024-12-31 | 84.4% | sources123+26 more | |
| 2024-09-30 | 73.8% | sources123+23 more | |
| 2024-06-30 | 75.0% | sources123+22 more | |
| 2024-03-31 | 74.5% | sources123+25 more | |
| 2023-12-31 | 91.2% | sources123+20 more | |
| 2023-09-30 | 95.3% | sources123+12 more | |
| 2023-06-30 | 95.3% | sources123+11 more | |
| 2023-03-31 | 99.4% | sources123+1 more |
Latest readings
Why this status, and its history
Evaluator: 0.9479 (SEC EDGAR Form D (private offerings), 2026-06-30) reads stable over 4 periods with a dead band of 0.05. Auto-reason; rule rationale: Four quarters; a move under five points is a single round's timing. Rising = capital concentrating in the frontier labs.
- 2026-09-10unmeasured to stableconf — → 50 · the evaluator (automatic)
Evaluator: 0.9479 (SEC EDGAR Form D (private offerings), 2026-06-30) reads stable over 4 periods with a dead band of 0.05. Auto-reason; rule rationale: Four quarters; a move under five points is a single round's timing. Rising = capital concentrating in the frontier labs.
Why this confidence
Rests on 117 observations from Epoch AI data hub — AI companies, SEC EDGAR Form D (private offerings); best evidence tier 4, grade B; current.
Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; 0–49 limited or vague evidence.
Predictions that lean on this
- Happening