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Frontier-lab revenue run-rates

Annualised revenue run-rates for OpenAI and Anthropic as compiled by Epoch AI from press reports; each point is an annualised month, not booked revenue.

Reason through this

The reading

Run-rates are compounding at rates no software company has printed, but every point is a leak to a journalist and definitions drift between gross and net.

Direction over the last 5 readingseach dot links to its record
openai · $200M · 2023-03-01 · estimate · disputedopenai · $1.0B · 2023-08-29 · estimate · disputedopenai · $1.3B · 2023-10-10 · estimate · disputedopenai · $1.6B · 2023-12-30 · reported · disputedopenai · $2.0B · 2023-12-31 · estimate · disputedopenai · $3.4B · 2024-06-12 · estimate · disputedopenai · $3.6B · 2024-08-15 · estimate · disputedopenai · $4.0B · 2024-09-12 · estimate · disputedopenai · $5.5B · 2024-12-31 · estimate · disputedopenai · $10.0B · 2025-06-09 · estimate · disputedopenai · $12.0B · 2025-07-30 · reported · disputedopenai · $13.0B · 2025-08-01 · estimate · disputedopenai · $19.0B · 2025-12-18 · estimate · disputedopenai · $21.4B · 2025-12-31 · estimate · disputedopenai · $25.0B · 2026-02-28 · estimate · disputedopenai · $30.0B · 2026-07-15 · estimate · disputedopenai · $40.0B · 2026-08-13 · estimate · disputedopenai · $70.0B · 2026-09-29 · estimate · disputedopenai · $50.0B · 2026-09-30 · estimate · disputed
in the rule's windowearlierdisputedmoves within ±$2.0B read as stable, and a move counts only if more than half the steps go its way; this window moved +$25.0B and 3 of 4 steps rose; higher reads concentrating
estimatereported

19 readings drawn from epoch.openai.revenue_run_rate_usd.pt, one of 5 series listed under How it is measured; 37 observations in the evidence.

Source: Epoch AI data hub — AI companies. Epoch AI, 'Data on AI Companies' (CC BY 4.0), epoch.ai/data.

The numbers
as ofreadingvaluerecord
2026-09-30openai (disputed)$50.0Bestimate
2026-09-29openai (disputed)$70.0Bestimate
2026-08-13openai (disputed)$40.0Bestimate
2026-07-15openai (disputed)$30.0Bestimate
2026-02-28openai (disputed)$25.0Bestimate
2025-12-31openai (disputed)$21.4Bestimate
2025-12-18openai (disputed)$19.0Bestimate
2025-08-01openai (disputed)$13.0Bestimate
2025-07-30openai (disputed)$12.0Breported
2025-06-09openai (disputed)$10.0Bestimate
2024-12-31openai (disputed)$5.5Bestimate
2024-09-12openai (disputed)$4.0Bestimate
2024-08-15openai (disputed)$3.6Bestimate
2024-06-12openai (disputed)$3.4Bestimate
2023-12-31openai (disputed)$2.0Bestimate
2023-12-30openai (disputed)$1.6Breported
2023-10-10openai (disputed)$1.3Bestimate
2023-08-29openai (disputed)$1.0Bestimate
2023-03-01openai (disputed)$200Mestimate

Why it matters

Whether the model layer keeps surplus depends on revenue growing faster than the capital it consumes. Run-rate is the only public series, and it is press-sourced.

What cuts against it

Single-source press reports (tier 5); run-rate is annualised from one month; gross vs net of cloud revenue share is often unstated.

How it is measured
  • series epoch.openai.revenue_run_rate_usd.pt
  • series epoch.anthropic.revenue_run_rate_usd.pt
  • series pymnts.openai.revenue_run_rate_usd.pt
  • series yahoo_finance.openai.revenue_run_rate_usd.pt
  • series cnbc.anthropic.revenue_run_rate_usd.pt
  • source CNBC · default tier 5 · CNBC; short quotation
  • source Epoch AI data hub — AI companies · default tier 5 · CC BY 4.0
  • source PYMNTS · default tier 5 · PYMNTS; short quotation
  • source Yahoo Finance (syndicated Investing.com) · default tier 5 · Syndicated; short quotation
  • proxy capital_flow, market_structure · cadence monthly

Four reports; moves under $2B are reporting noise. Rising run-rate concentrates revenue at the two frontier labs.

Applied to epoch.openai.revenue_run_rate_usd.pt.

Latest readings
  • 2026-09-30 openai · $50.0B⚑disputed: An annualised month reported by the press or the company, not booked or audited revenue, and often sourced to the company itself.run-rateas of 2026-09-30
  • 2026-09-29 openai · $70.0B⚑disputed: An annualised month reported by the press or the company, not booked or audited revenue, and often sourced to the company itself.run-rateas of 2026-09-29
  • 2026-08-13 openai · $40.0B⚑disputed: An annualised month reported by the press or the company, not booked or audited revenue, and often sourced to the company itself.run-rateas of 2026-08-13
  • 2026-07-15 openai · $30.0B⚑disputed: An annualised month reported by the press or the company, not booked or audited revenue, and often sourced to the company itself.run-rateas of 2026-07-15
  • 2026-02-28 openai · $25.0B⚑disputed: An annualised month reported by the press or the company, not booked or audited revenue, and often sourced to the company itself.run-rateas of 2026-02-28
  • 2025-12-31 openai · $21.4B⚑disputed: An annualised month reported by the press or the company, not booked or audited revenue, and often sourced to the company itself.run-rateas of 2025-12-31
Why this status, and its history

Evaluator: 4e+10 (Epoch AI data hub — AI companies, 2026-08-13) reads concentrating over 4 periods with a dead band of 2e+09. Auto-reason; rule rationale: Four reports; moves under $2B are reporting noise. Rising run-rate concentrates revenue at the two frontier labs.

  1. 2026-09-10unmeasured to concentratingconf — → 55 · the evaluator (automatic)

    Evaluator: 4e+10 (Epoch AI data hub — AI companies, 2026-08-13) reads concentrating over 4 periods with a dead band of 2e+09. Auto-reason; rule rationale: Four reports; moves under $2B are reporting noise. Rising run-rate concentrates revenue at the two frontier labs.

    source1
Why this confidence

Rests on 37 observations from CNBC, Epoch AI data hub — AI companies, PYMNTS, Yahoo Finance (syndicated Investing.com); best evidence tier 5, grade C; current.

Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; 0–49 limited or vague evidence.

Predictions that lean on this