Rent concentration in semiconductors

concentrating85/95lagging

1What this measures

NVIDIA's gross margin (gross profit ÷ revenue, whole company) by fiscal quarter from audited and reviewed SEC filings, as the cleanest public read on how much of the stack's surplus the chip layer keeps.

Why it matters. Nordhaus's base rate says innovators keep ~2% of surplus; a 70%+ gross margin at the bottom of the stack is the opposite pattern. Whether it holds, rises or erodes is the first capture question.

Proxy types: market_structure
Unit: share
Cadence: quarterly

2How we track this

derived metric gross_margin (formula in the semantic layer)

Direction over 4 periods, dead-band 1.0%; higher = concentrating.

Four fiscal quarters; a move under one point of margin is noise. Rising margin = rent concentrating at the chip layer.

Applied to metric:gross_margin.

3Tracker interpretation

The margin has held at the level a monopolist would print. Custom silicon share and AMD's data-centre ramp are the things that would erode it.

4Evidence

Direction over the last 4 periods; the band is ±1.0% around the window's first point. Higher reads concentrating.

Latest point

75.0%as of 2026-07-26(2 obs)

Value the bands apply to

75.0%as of 2026-07-26(2 obs)

128 observations. Hollow points are disputed (see counterevidence). Every point links to its observation.

Derived rows (64)

as of	dims	value	inputs
2026-07-26	nvda	75.0%	obs:096e4fb1 obs:924a29d4
2026-04-26	nvda	74.9%	obs:47e8d530 obs:b095b7d2
2025-10-26	nvda	73.4%	obs:79c3fc58 obs:81c90fd0
2025-07-27	nvda	72.4%	obs:31c394a0 obs:93466332
2025-04-27	nvda	60.5%	obs:60885416 obs:76d68422
2024-10-27	nvda	74.6%	obs:52629555 obs:7f4abd38
2024-07-28	nvda	75.1%	obs:2c12091b obs:a8f33ef7
2024-04-28	nvda	78.4%	obs:b85dc746 obs:dcf7e311
2023-10-29	nvda	74.0%	obs:307fd681 obs:bca3d970
2023-07-30	nvda	70.1%	obs:2101f471 obs:bc7bae0d
2023-04-30	nvda	64.6%	obs:00bed9f3 obs:d31a6468
2022-10-30	nvda	53.6%	obs:cc112d89 obs:f997bde5
2022-07-31	nvda	43.5%	obs:80646ef8 obs:80854da1
2022-05-01	nvda	65.5%	obs:c1fac6f5 obs:cce75d0f
2021-10-31	nvda	65.2%	obs:1926b8af obs:faeda0ba
2021-08-01	nvda	64.8%	obs:1f5c2465 obs:3274e2c4
2021-05-02	nvda	64.1%	obs:95a4cfd5 obs:9b61a47e
2020-10-25	nvda	62.6%	obs:3cbd48eb obs:8d3eb5a1
2020-07-26	nvda	58.8%	obs:51fadce2 obs:66092302
2020-04-26	nvda	65.1%	obs:0b7021c7 obs:a830457a
2019-10-27	nvda	63.6%	obs:5cf08a1f obs:f667388c
2019-07-28	nvda	59.8%	obs:8dd5ccfe obs:d6f4f5dc
2019-04-28	nvda	58.4%	obs:37321cc1 obs:7f39b51a
2018-10-28	nvda	60.4%	obs:1e170174 obs:7564e4d0
2018-07-29	nvda	63.2%	obs:5e01094d obs:eb4f13c9
2018-04-29	nvda	64.5%	obs:8522b65c obs:cb2dc62c
2018-01-28	nvda	61.9%	obs:37f8352b obs:54ab7f99
2017-10-29	nvda	59.5%	obs:30265a51 obs:f6479eb0
2017-07-30	nvda	58.4%	obs:58d5e0d3 obs:b4186f52
2017-04-30	nvda	59.4%	obs:40687cfd obs:7907ba15
2017-01-29	nvda	60.0%	obs:205b411f obs:9e19432c
2016-10-30	nvda	59.0%	obs:2bd4efea obs:455132c3
2016-07-31	nvda	57.8%	obs:3dba9610 obs:49fa9de7
2016-05-01	nvda	57.5%	obs:571247f6 obs:5cfdb7ee
2016-01-31	nvda	56.5%	obs:14b4a6eb obs:d19f48b3
2015-10-25	nvda	56.2%	obs:3344b733 obs:69e0d150
2015-07-26	nvda	55.0%	obs:338f9cc0 obs:648d02f8
2015-04-26	nvda	56.7%	obs:2c270ec1 obs:43fe5d68
2015-01-25	nvda	55.9%	obs:3ff6892c obs:9cddf08b
2014-10-26	nvda	55.3%	obs:30b9ec5e obs:e9ed5168
2014-07-27	nvda	56.1%	obs:3c9a66af obs:a0a1d9ff
2014-04-27	nvda	54.8%	obs:089c7ace obs:eb08b1d1
2014-01-26	nvda	54.1%	obs:072eecca obs:22db44dc
2013-10-27	nvda	55.4%	obs:286fd0b3 obs:ff023ee0
2013-07-28	nvda	55.8%	obs:76c44d73 obs:ddfa1e69
2013-04-28	nvda	54.3%	obs:136ee467 obs:7e892f23
2013-01-27	nvda	52.9%	obs:44f86773 obs:508dac68
2012-10-28	nvda	52.9%	obs:78b4ed56 obs:d3dcd7b5
2012-07-29	nvda	51.8%	obs:69ee3c85 obs:d2c1c837
2012-04-29	nvda	50.1%	obs:2efb4f6d obs:b6c5cea0
2012-01-29	nvda	51.4%	obs:408622b9 obs:7e830651
2011-10-30	nvda	52.2%	obs:56a2ec1b obs:d3c3e6ac
2011-07-31	nvda	51.7%	obs:18c996d5 obs:45cea69c
2011-05-01	nvda	50.4%	obs:658143aa obs:ff13facd
2011-01-30	nvda	48.1%	obs:2e73035b obs:7fc5f598
2010-10-31	nvda	46.5%	obs:025df1fe obs:f89fdc9f
2010-07-31	nvda	16.6%	obs:050ec3dd obs:7881c2df
2010-05-02	nvda	45.6%	obs:64038b16 obs:bba99dc5
2010-01-31	nvda	44.7%	obs:574b1317 obs:7ca07e15
2009-10-25	nvda	43.4%	obs:db7cde59 obs:e32727e4
2009-07-26	nvda	20.2%	obs:2dd5dbc6 obs:722bb5ad
2009-04-26	nvda	28.6%	obs:3755d0c6 obs:7ee73c67
2008-10-26	nvda	41.0%	obs:66069d2b obs:f773ba7f
2008-07-27	nvda	16.8%	obs:1e6a84ea obs:fd1cb0ac

5Status and reasoning

concentratingsince 2026-09-10 · claude-initial-seed

NVIDIA gross margin by fiscal quarter from 10-K/10-Q XBRL: Apr 2025 60.5%, Jul 2025 72.4%, Oct 2025 73.4%, Apr 2026 74.9%, Jul 2026 75.0%. Four-quarter change exceeds the one-point dead band and every step is up. Whole-company margin; segment margins are not in the company-facts API. Initial seed.

6Timeline notes

2026-07-26 · 75.0%as of 2026-07-26(2 obs)
2026-04-26 · 74.9%as of 2026-04-26(2 obs)
2025-10-26 · 73.4%as of 2025-10-26(2 obs)
2025-07-27 · 72.4%as of 2025-07-27(2 obs)
2025-04-27 · 60.5%as of 2025-04-27(2 obs)
2024-10-27 · 74.6%as of 2024-10-27(2 obs)

7Counterevidence

What cuts against this reading

Whole-company margin blends gaming and automotive with data centre; segment margins are not in the company-facts API. Margin can hold while unit share falls.

8Update history

2026-09-10unmeasured to concentratingconf — → 85 · claude-initial-seed
NVIDIA gross margin by fiscal quarter from 10-K/10-Q XBRL: Apr 2025 60.5%, Jul 2025 72.4%, Oct 2025 73.4%, Apr 2026 74.9%, Jul 2026 75.0%. Four-quarter change exceeds the one-point dead band and every step is up. Whole-company margin; segment margins are not in the company-facts API. Initial seed.
obs:096e4fb1 obs:924a29d4

9Confidence

85 / 95 — good evidence, some ambiguity

Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; below 50 limited or vague.

10Related

Cloud backlog (remaining performance obligations) concentrating