Rent concentration in semiconductors

NVIDIA's gross margin (gross profit ÷ revenue, whole company) by fiscal quarter from audited and reviewed SEC filings, as the cleanest public read on how much of the stack's surplus the chip layer keeps.

Reason through this

The reading

The margin has held at the level a monopolist would print. Custom silicon share and AMD's data-centre ramp are the things that would erode it.

Direction over the last 5 readingseach dot links to its record

in the rule's windowearliermoves within ±1.0 pts read as stable, and a move counts only if more than half the steps go its way; this window moved +2.6 pts and 3 of 4 steps rose; higher reads concentrating

measured

72 readings drawn from the derived metric gross_margin; 144 observations in the evidence.

Derived (gross_margin) from: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts. SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts API.

The numbers

as of	reading	value	record
2026-07-26	nvda	75.0%	measured
2026-04-26	nvda	74.9%	measured
2026-01-25	nvda	75.0%	measured
2025-10-26	nvda	73.4%	measured
2025-07-27	nvda	72.4%	measured
2025-04-27	nvda	60.5%	measured
2025-01-26	nvda	73.0%	measured
2024-10-27	nvda	74.6%	measured
2024-07-28	nvda	75.1%	measured
2024-04-28	nvda	78.4%	measured
2024-01-28	nvda	76.0%	measured
2023-10-29	nvda	74.0%	measured
2023-07-30	nvda	70.1%	measured
2023-04-30	nvda	64.6%	measured
2023-01-29	nvda	63.3%	measured
2022-10-30	nvda	53.6%	measured
2022-07-31	nvda	43.5%	measured
2022-05-01	nvda	65.5%	measured
2022-01-30	nvda	65.4%	measured
2021-10-31	nvda	65.2%	measured
2021-08-01	nvda	64.8%	measured
2021-05-02	nvda	64.1%	measured
2021-01-31	nvda	63.1%	measured
2020-10-25	nvda	62.6%	measured
2020-07-26	nvda	58.8%	measured
2020-04-26	nvda	65.1%	measured
2020-01-26	nvda	64.9%	measured
2019-10-27	nvda	63.6%	measured
2019-07-28	nvda	59.8%	measured
2019-04-28	nvda	58.4%	measured
2019-01-27	nvda	54.7%	measured
2018-10-28	nvda	60.4%	measured
2018-07-29	nvda	63.2%	measured
2018-04-29	nvda	64.5%	measured
2018-01-28	nvda	61.9%	measured
2017-10-29	nvda	59.5%	measured
2017-07-30	nvda	58.4%	measured
2017-04-30	nvda	59.4%	measured
2017-01-29	nvda	60.0%	measured
2016-10-30	nvda	59.0%	measured
2016-07-31	nvda	57.8%	measured
2016-05-01	nvda	57.5%	measured
2016-01-31	nvda	56.5%	measured
2015-10-25	nvda	56.2%	measured
2015-07-26	nvda	55.0%	measured
2015-04-26	nvda	56.7%	measured
2015-01-25	nvda	55.9%	measured
2014-10-26	nvda	55.3%	measured
2014-07-27	nvda	56.1%	measured
2014-04-27	nvda	54.8%	measured
2014-01-26	nvda	54.1%	measured
2013-10-27	nvda	55.4%	measured
2013-07-28	nvda	55.8%	measured
2013-04-28	nvda	54.3%	measured
2013-01-27	nvda	52.9%	measured
2012-10-28	nvda	52.9%	measured
2012-07-29	nvda	51.8%	measured
2012-04-29	nvda	50.1%	measured
2012-01-29	nvda	51.4%	measured
2011-10-30	nvda	52.2%	measured
2011-07-31	nvda	51.7%	measured
2011-05-01	nvda	50.4%	measured
2011-01-30	nvda	48.1%	measured
2010-10-31	nvda	46.5%	measured
2010-07-31	nvda	16.6%	measured
2010-05-02	nvda	45.6%	measured
2010-01-31	nvda	44.7%	measured
2009-10-25	nvda	43.4%	measured
2009-07-26	nvda	20.2%	measured
2009-04-26	nvda	28.6%	measured
2008-10-26	nvda	41.0%	measured
2008-07-27	nvda	16.8%	measured

Why it matters

Nordhaus's base rate says innovators keep ~2% of surplus; a 70%+ gross margin at the bottom of the stack is the opposite pattern. Whether it holds, rises or erodes is the first capture question.

What cuts against it

Whole-company margin blends gaming and automotive with data centre; segment margins are not in the company-facts API. Margin can hold while unit share falls. A few direct customers each buy a double-digit share of revenue (saved analysis customer_concentration), so a handful of buyers' capex plans can move the rent.

How it is measured

derived metric gross_margin (formula in the semantic layer)
source SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts · default tier 4 · Public domain (U.S. government); fair-access policy requires a descriptive User-Agent
proxy market_structure · cadence quarterly

Four fiscal quarters; a move under one point of margin is noise. Rising margin = rent concentrating at the chip layer.

Applied to metric:gross_margin.

Derived rows (72)

as of	dims	value	inputs
2026-07-26	nvda	75.0%	sources1 2
2026-04-26	nvda	74.9%	sources1 2
2026-01-25	nvda	75.0%	sources1 2 3+5 more
2025-10-26	nvda	73.4%	sources1 2
2025-07-27	nvda	72.4%	sources1 2
2025-04-27	nvda	60.5%	sources1 2
2025-01-26	nvda	73.0%	sources1 2 3+5 more
2024-10-27	nvda	74.6%	sources1 2
2024-07-28	nvda	75.1%	sources1 2
2024-04-28	nvda	78.4%	sources1 2
2024-01-28	nvda	76.0%	sources1 2 3+5 more
2023-10-29	nvda	74.0%	sources1 2
2023-07-30	nvda	70.1%	sources1 2
2023-04-30	nvda	64.6%	sources1 2
2023-01-29	nvda	63.3%	sources1 2 3+5 more
2022-10-30	nvda	53.6%	sources1 2
2022-07-31	nvda	43.5%	sources1 2
2022-05-01	nvda	65.5%	sources1 2
2022-01-30	nvda	65.4%	sources1 2 3+5 more
2021-10-31	nvda	65.2%	sources1 2
2021-08-01	nvda	64.8%	sources1 2
2021-05-02	nvda	64.1%	sources1 2
2021-01-31	nvda	63.1%	sources1 2 3+5 more
2020-10-25	nvda	62.6%	sources1 2
2020-07-26	nvda	58.8%	sources1 2
2020-04-26	nvda	65.1%	sources1 2
2020-01-26	nvda	64.9%	sources1 2
2019-10-27	nvda	63.6%	sources1 2
2019-07-28	nvda	59.8%	sources1 2
2019-04-28	nvda	58.4%	sources1 2
2019-01-27	nvda	54.7%	sources1 2
2018-10-28	nvda	60.4%	sources1 2
2018-07-29	nvda	63.2%	sources1 2
2018-04-29	nvda	64.5%	sources1 2
2018-01-28	nvda	61.9%	sources1 2
2017-10-29	nvda	59.5%	sources1 2
2017-07-30	nvda	58.4%	sources1 2
2017-04-30	nvda	59.4%	sources1 2
2017-01-29	nvda	60.0%	sources1 2
2016-10-30	nvda	59.0%	sources1 2
2016-07-31	nvda	57.8%	sources1 2
2016-05-01	nvda	57.5%	sources1 2
2016-01-31	nvda	56.5%	sources1 2
2015-10-25	nvda	56.2%	sources1 2
2015-07-26	nvda	55.0%	sources1 2
2015-04-26	nvda	56.7%	sources1 2
2015-01-25	nvda	55.9%	sources1 2
2014-10-26	nvda	55.3%	sources1 2
2014-07-27	nvda	56.1%	sources1 2
2014-04-27	nvda	54.8%	sources1 2
2014-01-26	nvda	54.1%	sources1 2
2013-10-27	nvda	55.4%	sources1 2
2013-07-28	nvda	55.8%	sources1 2
2013-04-28	nvda	54.3%	sources1 2
2013-01-27	nvda	52.9%	sources1 2
2012-10-28	nvda	52.9%	sources1 2
2012-07-29	nvda	51.8%	sources1 2
2012-04-29	nvda	50.1%	sources1 2
2012-01-29	nvda	51.4%	sources1 2
2011-10-30	nvda	52.2%	sources1 2
2011-07-31	nvda	51.7%	sources1 2
2011-05-01	nvda	50.4%	sources1 2
2011-01-30	nvda	48.1%	sources1 2
2010-10-31	nvda	46.5%	sources1 2
2010-07-31	nvda	16.6%	sources1 2
2010-05-02	nvda	45.6%	sources1 2
2010-01-31	nvda	44.7%	sources1 2
2009-10-25	nvda	43.4%	sources1 2
2009-07-26	nvda	20.2%	sources1 2
2009-04-26	nvda	28.6%	sources1 2
2008-10-26	nvda	41.0%	sources1 2
2008-07-27	nvda	16.8%	sources1 2

Latest readings

2026-07-26 · 75.0%as of 2026-07-26(2 obs)
2026-04-26 · 74.9%as of 2026-04-26(2 obs)
2026-01-25 · 75.0%as of 2026-01-25(8 obs)
2025-10-26 · 73.4%as of 2025-10-26(2 obs)
2025-07-27 · 72.4%as of 2025-07-27(2 obs)
2025-04-27 · 60.5%as of 2025-04-27(2 obs)

Why this status, and its history

NVIDIA gross margin by fiscal quarter from 10-K/10-Q XBRL: Apr 2025 60.5%, Jul 2025 72.4%, Oct 2025 73.4%, Apr 2026 74.9%, Jul 2026 75.0%. Four-quarter change exceeds the one-point dead band and every step is up. Whole-company margin; segment margins are not in the company-facts API. Initial seed.

2026-09-10unmeasured to concentratingconf — → 85 · initial seed (model-drafted)
NVIDIA gross margin by fiscal quarter from 10-K/10-Q XBRL: Apr 2025 60.5%, Jul 2025 72.4%, Oct 2025 73.4%, Apr 2026 74.9%, Jul 2026 75.0%. Four-quarter change exceeds the one-point dead band and every step is up. Whole-company margin; segment margins are not in the company-facts API. Initial seed.
sources1 2

Why this confidence

Rests on 144 observations from SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts; best evidence tier 4, grade A; current.

Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; 0–49 limited or vague evidence.