Cloud backlog (remaining performance obligations)
Remaining performance obligations reported by Oracle, Microsoft and CoreWeave at each quarter end, from SEC filings. Contracted, not yet recognised revenue; the headline series is Oracle's.
Reason through thisThe reading
Backlog is growing far faster than recognised revenue; a large share is a handful of AI-lab contracts, which is the circular-financing question in filed form.
33 readings drawn from sec.orcl.rpo.q, one of 3 series listed under How it is measured; 76 observations in the evidence.
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts. SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts API.
The numbers
| as of | reading | value | record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | orcl | $664B | measured |
| 2026-05-31 | orcl | $638B | measured |
| 2026-02-28 | orcl | $553B | measured |
| 2025-11-30 | orcl | $523B | measured |
| 2025-08-31 | orcl | $455B | measured |
| 2025-05-31 | orcl | $138B | measured |
| 2025-02-28 | orcl | $130B | measured |
| 2024-11-30 | orcl | $97.3B | measured |
| 2024-08-31 | orcl | $99.1B | measured |
| 2024-05-31 | orcl | $97.9B | measured |
| 2024-02-29 | orcl | $80.2B | measured |
| 2023-11-30 | orcl | $65.5B | measured |
| 2023-08-31 | orcl | $64.9B | measured |
| 2023-05-31 | orcl | $67.9B | measured |
| 2023-02-28 | orcl | $62.3B | measured |
| 2022-11-30 | orcl | $61.2B | measured |
| 2022-08-31 | orcl | $60.7B | measured |
| 2022-05-31 | orcl | $46.6B | measured |
| 2022-02-28 | orcl | $38.5B | measured |
| 2021-11-30 | orcl | $37.2B | measured |
| 2021-08-31 | orcl | $38.7B | measured |
| 2021-05-31 | orcl | $41.3B | measured |
| 2021-02-28 | orcl | $35.3B | measured |
| 2020-11-30 | orcl | $34.4B | measured |
| 2020-08-31 | orcl | $35.5B | measured |
| 2020-05-31 | orcl | $37.0B | measured |
| 2020-02-29 | orcl | $33.8B | measured |
| 2019-11-30 | orcl | $32.8B | measured |
| 2019-08-31 | orcl | $33.8B | measured |
| 2019-05-31 | orcl | $36.2B | measured |
| 2019-02-28 | orcl | $31.5B | measured |
| 2018-11-30 | orcl | $30.1B | measured |
| 2018-08-31 | orcl | $31.3B | measured |
Why it matters
RPO is the forward view of whether compute demand is contracted ahead of revenue. Its growth is the clearest filed evidence of capex-ahead-of-revenue, and of how much of it is one customer.
What cuts against it
RPO includes non-cancellable commitments that may never convert; Oracle's ~$300B OpenAI contract is reported, not itemised in the filing. Definitions differ across filers.
How it is measured
- series
sec.orcl.rpo.q - series
sec.msft.rpo.q - series
sec.crwv.rpo.q - source SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts · default tier 4 · Public domain (U.S. government); fair-access policy requires a descriptive User-Agent
- proxy capital_flow, market_structure · cadence quarterly
Four quarters; moves under $10B are noise at this scale. Growing backlog concentrates future cloud revenue in a few contracts.
Applied to sec.orcl.rpo.q.
Latest readings
Why this status, and its history
Oracle remaining performance obligations at quarter end (10-Q/10-K XBRL): May 2025 $138B, Aug 2025 $455B, Nov 2025 $523B, Feb 2026 $553B, May 2026 $638B. Rising every quarter, far above the $10B dead band; Microsoft ($684B at Jun 2026) and CoreWeave ($104B) move the same way. Initial seed.
- 2026-09-10unmeasured to concentratingconf — → 80 · initial seed (model-drafted)
Oracle remaining performance obligations at quarter end (10-Q/10-K XBRL): May 2025 $138B, Aug 2025 $455B, Nov 2025 $523B, Feb 2026 $553B, May 2026 $638B. Rising every quarter, far above the $10B dead band; Microsoft ($684B at Jun 2026) and CoreWeave ($104B) move the same way. Initial seed.
source1
Why this confidence
Rests on 76 observations from SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts; best evidence tier 4, grade A; current.
Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; 0–49 limited or vague evidence.
Predictions that lean on this
- Happening
- Too early to tellAI earns trillions of dollars a year in revenue before 2030. · Dario Amodei
- Too early to tellAI needs about two trillion dollars of revenue a year by 2030 and falls short. · Bain & Company (Global Technology Report 2025)
- Too early to tellAI's revenue falls far short of what the spending on it needs to repay. · David Cahn (Sequoia Capital)
- Too early to tell