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Slow Variables

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Diffusion / bucket 2

Products

Stock
Reliable, integrated products built on those methods.
Speed limit
Reliability, integration, evaluation and liability — the 50%→80% gap and the "last mile" of productisation.
Valve measured
product to adoption

Indicators

Developer productivity uplift (METR RCTs)grade A
consistent with normalleading70/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
-4.0%⚑disputedas of 2026-02-24
Enterprise pilots with measurable P&L impactgrade C
consistent with normalcoincident55/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
5.0%⚑disputedas of 2025-06-30
Frontier models completing expert legal tasks end to end (Harvey LAB)grade D
emergingleading40/95 confidence, limited or vague
7.1%as of 2026-05-26
Agent reliability across repeated runs (tau-bench pass^k)grade B
emergingleading55/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
56.2%as of 2026-05-18
Internal-to-public deployment gap at the frontiergrade C
consistent with normalleading45/95 confidence, limited or vague
4.00 monthsas of 2026-06-30

Crosswalk to the capture lens

  • Serving & orchestration (same valve) — Productisation runs through serving, routing and agent infrastructure.
  • Deployment & application (same valve) — Uplift RCTs, pilot→production and app-layer margin net of inference measure the same valve.