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Enterprise pilots with measurable P&L impact

Share of enterprise generative-AI pilots that reach measurable P&L impact, from MIT NANDA's 2025 survey (5%). Disputed; Menlo's ~47% reaching production uses a different denominator.

Reason through this

The reading

Consistent with the paper, and with every previous general-purpose technology; the number to watch is whether it moves at all in the 2026 wave.

Every readingeach dot links to its record
us enterprise · 5.0% · 2025-06-30 · estimate · disputed
a readingdisputednormal rangefast range
estimate

1 reading drawn from nanda.us_enterprise.pilots_with_pnl_impact_share.pt, one of 2 series listed under How it is measured; 2 observations in the evidence.

Source: MIT NANDA, The GenAI Divide. MIT NANDA, 'The GenAI Divide: State of AI in Business 2025'.

The numbers
as ofreadingvaluerecord
2025-06-30us enterprise (disputed)5.0%estimate

Why it matters

The product-to-adoption valve in one number. If most pilots never pay off, adoption stays broad but shallow.

What cuts against it

One survey, disputed sample and denominator; Menlo's 47% reach-production figure on a different definition; the report is hosted only on a mirror.

How it is measured
  • series nanda.us_enterprise.pilots_with_pnl_impact_share.pt
  • series fortune.us_enterprise.pilots_with_pnl_impact_share.pt
  • source Fortune · default tier 5 · Fortune Media; short quotation
  • source MIT NANDA, The GenAI Divide · default tier 6 · Report
  • proxy deployment, behaviour · cadence annual · valve product to adoption

Normal = at most 10% of pilots with measurable P&L impact, the typical enterprise-IT hit rate; fast = more than 30%.

Applied to nanda.us_enterprise.pilots_with_pnl_impact_share.pt.

Latest readings
  • 2025-06-30 us_enterprise · 5.0%⚑disputed: Denominator and sample disputed; Menlo reports ~47% of pilots reach production on a different definition. No MIT-hosted copy of the PDF exists; this is the mirror Menlo cites.as of 2025-06-30
Why this status, and its history

MIT NANDA (Jul 2025): 5% of integrated pilots extract millions in value, the rest show no measurable P&L impact. Inside the normal band (<=10%). Disputed denominator; Menlo's 47% reach-production figure uses a different definition. Initial seed.

  1. 2026-09-10unmeasured to consistent with normalconf — → 55 · initial seed (model-drafted)

    MIT NANDA (Jul 2025): 5% of integrated pilots extract millions in value, the rest show no measurable P&L impact. Inside the normal band (<=10%). Disputed denominator; Menlo's 47% reach-production figure uses a different definition. Initial seed.

    source1
Why this confidence

Rests on 2 observations from Fortune, MIT NANDA, The GenAI Divide; best evidence tier 5, grade C; current.

Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; 0–49 limited or vague evidence.

Predictions that lean on this