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Progress against the AI 2027 quantitative predictions

The share of the pace AI 2027 predicted that its quantitative metrics actually achieved, as graded by the AI Futures Project itself (65% for 2025, revised to about 75% in July 2026) and restated by the independent AI 2027 Tracker.

Reason through this

The reading

Behind schedule but not by the margin a normal-technology reading needs; the July revision moved it the fast way.

Every readingeach dot links to its record
70.0% · 2026-07-31 · estimate
a readingnormal rangefast range
estimate

1 reading drawn from the derived metric surprise_index; 3 observations in the evidence.

Derived (surprise_index) from: AI Futures Project blog; AI 2027 Tracker (independent). AI Futures Project. AI 2027 Tracker.

The numbers
as ofreadingvaluerecord
2026-07-31—70.0%estimate

Why it matters

The scenario the fast lens is calibrated on grades its own forecasts. If progress runs at three quarters of its pace, the timeline stretches by years.

What cuts against it

The authors grade themselves (tier 7); the metric mix is theirs; a pace figure hides which metrics lag.

How it is measured
  • series aifutures_blog.ai_2027_quantitative.pace_vs_predicted.pt
  • series ai2027_tracker.ai_2027_quantitative.pace_vs_predicted.pt
  • derived metric surprise_index (formula in the semantic layer)
  • source AI 2027 Tracker (independent) · default tier 6 · Site terms; short quotation
  • source AI Futures Project blog · default tier 7 · Substack; short quotation
  • proxy benchmark · cadence annual · valve invention to product

Normal = 60% or less of the predicted pace (a delay that compounds to years); fast = 90% or more (on schedule). Between is `emerging`.

Applied to metric:surprise_index.

Derived rows (1)
as ofdimsvalueinputs
2026-07-3170.0%sources12
Latest readings
  • 2026-07-31 · 70.0%as of 2026-07-31(2 obs)
Why this status, and its history

First scoring. AI Futures grades its own 2025 quantitative predictions at roughly 75% of predicted pace (July 2026 update to the Feb 2026 65%), between the normal and fast bands; a self-grade is tier 7 and caps at emerging in any case.

  1. 2026-09-10unmeasured to emergingconf — → 50 · the evaluator (automatic)

    First scoring. AI Futures grades its own 2025 quantitative predictions at roughly 75% of predicted pace (July 2026 update to the Feb 2026 65%), between the normal and fast bands; a self-grade is tier 7 and caps at emerging in any case.

    source1
Why this confidence

Rests on 3 observations from AI 2027 Tracker (independent), AI Futures Project blog; best evidence tier 6, grade B; current.

Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; 0–49 limited or vague evidence.

Predictions that lean on this