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Methods · Model

Progress against the AI 2027 quantitative predictions

emerging50/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalisegrade Bleading

1What this measures

The share of the pace AI 2027 predicted that its quantitative metrics actually achieved, as graded by the AI Futures Project itself (65% for 2025, revised to about 75% in July 2026) and restated by the independent AI 2027 Tracker.

Why it matters. The scenario the fast lens is calibrated on grades its own forecasts. If progress runs at three quarters of its pace, the timeline stretches by years.

Proxy types
benchmark
Unit
share
Cadence
annual
Valve
invention to product

2How we track this

  • series aifutures_blog.ai_2027_quantitative.pace_vs_predicted.pt
  • series ai2027_tracker.ai_2027_quantitative.pace_vs_predicted.pt
  • source AI 2027 Tracker (independent) · default tier 6 · Site terms; short quotation
  • source AI Futures Project blog · default tier 7 · Substack; short quotation
Normal band
≤ 60.0%
Fast band
≥ 90.0%
Falsifying
—

Normal = 60% or less of the predicted pace (a delay that compounds to years); fast = 90% or more (on schedule). Between is `emerging`.

Applied to aifutures_blog.ai_2027_quantitative.pace_vs_predicted.pt.

3Tracker interpretation

Behind schedule but not by the margin a normal-technology reading needs; the July revision moved it the fast way.

4Evidence

Latest point
75.0%as of 2026-07-31
ai_2027_quantitative
Value the bands apply to
75.0%as of 2026-07-31

3 observations. Hollow points are disputed (see counterevidence). Every point links to its observation.

5Status and reasoning

emergingsince 2026-09-10 · evaluate

First scoring. AI Futures grades its own 2025 quantitative predictions at roughly 75% of predicted pace (July 2026 update to the Feb 2026 65%), between the normal and fast bands; a self-grade is tier 7 and caps at emerging in any case.

6Timeline notes

  • 2026-07-31 ai_2027_quantitative · 75.0%as of 2026-07-31
  • 2025-12-31 ai_2027_quantitative · 65.0%as of 2025-12-31

7Counterevidence

What cuts against this reading

The authors grade themselves (tier 7); the metric mix is theirs; a pace figure hides which metrics lag.

8Update history

  1. 2026-09-10unmeasured to emergingconf — → 50 · evaluate

    First scoring. AI Futures grades its own 2025 quantitative predictions at roughly 75% of predicted pace (July 2026 update to the Feb 2026 65%), between the normal and fast bands; a self-grade is tier 7 and caps at emerging in any case.

    obs:86d58f4a

9Confidence

50 / 95 — mixed or hard to operationalise

Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; below 50 limited or vague.

10Related