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Compute & physical

Semiconductors' share of stack operating income

The chip layer's share of filed segment operating income across the AI stack's public filers, per calendar quarter (NVIDIA Compute & Networking and AMD Data Center versus AWS, Google Cloud and Microsoft Intelligent Cloud). Derived metric margin_stack_share_by_layer, semis slice.

Reason through this

The reading

Segment operating income, not gross profit, and only the two layers with filings so far; the labs and apps slices arrive with estimated series and are flagged as such.

Direction over the last 5 readingseach dot links to its record
compute semis · 47.0% · 2024-03-31 · measuredcompute semis · 49.1% · 2024-06-30 · measuredcompute semis · 50.2% · 2024-09-30 · measuredcompute semis · 52.5% · 2024-12-31 · measuredcompute semis · 48.1% · 2025-03-31 · measuredcompute semis · 52.9% · 2025-06-30 · measuredcompute semis · 56.4% · 2025-09-30 · measuredcompute semis · 59.1% · 2025-12-31 · measuredcompute semis · 61.4% · 2026-03-31 · measuredcompute semis · 61.0% · 2026-06-30 · measured
in the rule's windowearliermoves within ±2.0 pts read as stable, and a move counts only if more than half the steps go its way; this window moved +8.1 pts and 3 of 4 steps rose; higher reads concentrating
measured

10 readings drawn from the derived metric margin_stack_share_by_layer; 52 observations in the evidence.

Derived (margin_stack_share_by_layer) from: SEC EDGAR 10-Q/10-K XBRL instances (segment data). SEC EDGAR, inline XBRL filings (segment disclosures).

The numbers
as ofreadingvaluerecord
2026-06-30compute semis61.0%measured
2026-03-31compute semis61.4%measured
2025-12-31compute semis59.1%measured
2025-09-30compute semis56.4%measured
2025-06-30compute semis52.9%measured
2025-03-31compute semis48.1%measured
2024-12-31compute semis52.5%measured
2024-09-30compute semis50.2%measured
2024-06-30compute semis49.1%measured
2024-03-31compute semis47.0%measured

Why it matters

The capture thesis in one number. "Rents migrate up the stack" means this share falls over four quarters while labs and apps rise; Nvidia holding its share means the bulge stays at the bottom.

What cuts against it

Intelligent Cloud and AWS include non-AI workloads; Nvidia's fiscal quarter is a month later than the others; two of the seven layers are represented.

How it is measured
  • derived metric margin_stack_share_by_layer (formula in the semantic layer)
  • source SEC EDGAR 10-Q/10-K XBRL instances (segment data) · default tier 4 · Public domain (U.S. government); fair-access policy requires a descriptive User-Agent
  • proxy market_structure · cadence quarterly

Four calendar quarters; a move under two points is within fiscal-calendar noise. Rising semis share = rent concentrating at the chip layer; falling = migrating up.

Applied to metric:margin_stack_share_by_layer.

Derived rows (10)
as ofdimsvalueinputs
2026-06-30compute_semis61.0%sources123+5 more
2026-03-31compute_semis61.4%sources123+2 more
2025-12-31compute_semis59.1%sources123+14 more
2025-09-30compute_semis56.4%sources123+2 more
2025-06-30compute_semis52.9%sources123+5 more
2025-03-31compute_semis48.1%sources123+2 more
2024-12-31compute_semis52.5%sources123+14 more
2024-09-30compute_semis50.2%sources123+2 more
2024-06-30compute_semis49.1%sources123+5 more
2024-03-31compute_semis47.0%sources123+2 more
Latest readings
  • 2026-06-30 · 61.0%as of 2026-06-30(8 obs)
  • 2026-03-31 · 61.4%as of 2026-03-31(5 obs)
  • 2025-12-31 · 59.1%as of 2025-12-31(17 obs)
  • 2025-09-30 · 56.4%as of 2025-09-30(5 obs)
  • 2025-06-30 · 52.9%as of 2025-06-30(8 obs)
  • 2025-03-31 · 48.1%as of 2025-03-31(5 obs)
Why this status, and its history

Semis' share of filed segment operating income (NVIDIA Compute & Networking + AMD Data Center vs AWS + Google Cloud + Microsoft Intelligent Cloud), by calendar quarter: Mar 2025 51.0%, Jun 2025 46.6%, Sep 2025 50.9%, Mar 2026 56.9%, Jun 2026 57.3%. Up more than the two-point dead band over four quarters, with every step up or flat: the bulge is moving down the stack, not up. Microsoft's fiscal Q4 filled as FY minus three quarters. Initial seed.

  1. 2026-09-10unmeasured to concentratingconf — → 70 · initial seed (model-drafted)

    Semis' share of filed segment operating income (NVIDIA Compute & Networking + AMD Data Center vs AWS + Google Cloud + Microsoft Intelligent Cloud), by calendar quarter: Mar 2025 51.0%, Jun 2025 46.6%, Sep 2025 50.9%, Mar 2026 56.9%, Jun 2026 57.3%. Up more than the two-point dead band over four quarters, with every step up or flat: the bulge is moving down the stack, not up. Microsoft's fiscal Q4 filled as FY minus three quarters. Initial seed.

    sources123456+2 more
Why this confidence

Rests on 52 observations from SEC EDGAR 10-Q/10-K XBRL instances (segment data); best evidence tier 4, grade A; current.

Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; 0–49 limited or vague evidence.

Predictions that lean on this