Concentration among covered chip filers (HHI)

unclear60/95leading

1What this measures

Herfindahl index of data-centre revenue between NVIDIA (Data Center segment) and AMD (Data Center segment), per calendar quarter, from filed segment disclosures. Derived metric hhi_by_layer, semis slice.

Why it matters. Rents stay where concentration stays. AMD's data-centre ramp and custom silicon are the routes by which the chip layer's rent would erode; this is the first of them in filed numbers.

Proxy types: market_structure
Unit: index
Cadence: quarterly

2How we track this

derived metric hhi_by_layer (formula in the semantic layer)

Direction over 4 periods, dead-band 0.02 index; higher = concentrating.

Four calendar quarters; a move under 200 HHI points is noise. Rising = the covered chip layer concentrating further.

Applied to metric:hhi_by_layer.

3Tracker interpretation

Two filers only, so the level is near the top of the scale by construction; the direction is what carries information.

4Evidence

Direction over the last 4 periods; the band is ±0.02 index around the window's first point. Higher reads concentrating.

Latest point

0.85 indexas of 2026-06-30(2 obs)

Value the bands apply to

0.85 indexas of 2026-06-30(2 obs)

13 observations. Hollow points are disputed (see counterevidence). Every point links to its observation.

Derived rows (6)

as of	dims	value	inputs
2026-06-30	compute_semis	0.85 index	obs:005d040f obs:2faa719b
2025-09-30	compute_semis	0.83 index	obs:8991d1b8 obs:fbc2a238
2025-06-30	compute_semis	0.86 index	obs:1e5e52fc obs:94478275
2024-09-30	compute_semis	0.79 index	obs:358f0bff obs:35ee16d5
2024-06-30	compute_semis	0.80 index	obs:09d6b6a7 obs:6cb012f7
2023-09-30	compute_semis	0.62 index	obs:196f2f04 obs:5deaa5e9 obs:855ffb04

5Status and reasoning

unclearsince 2026-09-10 · evaluate

HHI between NVIDIA Data Center and AMD Data Center revenue by calendar quarter: 0.79 (Sep 2024), 0.86 (Jun 2025), 0.83 (Sep 2025), 0.85 (Jun 2026). Steps exceed the 200-point dead band in both directions, so the evaluator reads unclear: NVIDIA's share oscillates with its product cycle rather than trending. Two filers only; the level is high by construction. Initial seed.

6Timeline notes

2026-06-30 · 0.85 indexas of 2026-06-30(2 obs)
2025-09-30 · 0.83 indexas of 2025-09-30(2 obs)
2025-06-30 · 0.86 indexas of 2025-06-30(2 obs)
2024-09-30 · 0.79 indexas of 2024-09-30(2 obs)
2024-06-30 · 0.80 indexas of 2024-06-30(2 obs)
2023-09-30 · 0.62 indexas of 2023-09-30(3 obs)

7Counterevidence

What cuts against this reading

Broadcom, TSMC, memory and custom silicon are not covered, so the index overstates concentration; segment definitions differ between filers.

8Update history

2026-09-10unmeasured to unclearconf — → 60 · evaluate
HHI between NVIDIA Data Center and AMD Data Center revenue by calendar quarter: 0.79 (Sep 2024), 0.86 (Jun 2025), 0.83 (Sep 2025), 0.85 (Jun 2026). Steps exceed the 200-point dead band in both directions, so the evaluator reads unclear: NVIDIA's share oscillates with its product cycle rather than trending. Two filers only; the level is high by construction. Initial seed.
obs:005d040f obs:2faa719b

9Confidence

60 / 95 — mixed or hard to operationalise

Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; below 50 limited or vague.

10Related

Rent concentration in semiconductors concentrating
Semiconductors' share of stack operating income concentrating