Executives reporting no AI impact on their own firm
Share of executives in a four-country survey (US, UK, Germany, Australia; more than 5,000 respondents) reporting no measurable AI impact on their firm's employment or productivity over the last three years, from Yotzov, Barrero and co-authors (NBER WP 34836).
Reason through thisThe reading
The survey says what the productivity statistics say. Impact is expected, reported and rarely measured.
1 reading drawn from nber.executives_4_countries.no_ai_impact_share.pt, one of 2 series listed under How it is measured; 2 observations in the evidence.
Source: NBER working papers and chapters. NBER.
The numbers
| as of | reading | value | record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | executives 4 countries | 90.0% | reported |
Why it matters
Adoption headlines are broad, but firm-level impact is what adaptation means. Nine in ten firms seeing nothing yet is the productivity J-curve in survey form.
What cuts against it
Executives may not see impacts that exist below the firm-level line; the question asks about the last three years, which mostly predate agentic tools.
How it is measured
- series
nber.executives_4_countries.no_ai_impact_share.pt - series
peoplematters.executives_4_countries.no_ai_employment_impact_share.pt - source NBER working papers and chapters · default tier 6 · NBER; abstract quotation
- source People Matters · default tier 5 · People Matters; short quotation
- proxy deployment, welfare · cadence annual · valve adoption to adaptation
Normal = at least 70% of firms report no measurable impact three years in, as with PCs at the same age; fast = a majority reporting impact (no-impact share under 40%). Between is `emerging`.
Applied to nber.executives_4_countries.no_ai_impact_share.pt.
Latest readings
- 2026-02-28 executives_4_countries · 90.0%as of 2026-02-28
Why this status, and its history
Evaluator: 0.9 (NBER working papers and chapters, 2026-02-28) is inside the consistent band (lo=0.7 ). Auto-reason; band rationale: Normal = at least 70% of firms report no measurable impact three years in, as with PCs at the same age; fast = a majority reporting impact (no-impact share under 40%). Between is `emerging`.
- 2026-09-10unmeasured to consistent with normalconf — → 70 · the evaluator (automatic)
Evaluator: 0.9 (NBER working papers and chapters, 2026-02-28) is inside the consistent band (lo=0.7 ). Auto-reason; band rationale: Normal = at least 70% of firms report no measurable impact three years in, as with PCs at the same age; fast = a majority reporting impact (no-impact share under 40%). Between is `emerging`.
source1
Why this confidence
Rests on 2 observations from NBER working papers and chapters, People Matters; best evidence tier 5, grade B; current.
Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; 0–49 limited or vague evidence.