Non-Nvidia share of AI compute shipped (H100-equivalents)
Non-Nvidia designers' share of cumulative AI compute shipped, in H100-equivalents, on each quarter end that every designer has reported, from Epoch's chip-sales estimates. Derived metric custom_silicon_share.
Reason through thisThe reading
Google's TPUs are internal, not sold, so the share overstates merchant competition; the direction still says whether the chokepoint is being routed around.
10 readings drawn from the derived metric custom_silicon_share; 60 observations in the evidence.
Derived (custom_silicon_share) from: Epoch AI chip sales. Epoch AI, AI Chip Sales (CC BY 4.0).
Why it matters
The leading indicator of Nvidia rent decay; TPUs, Trainium and AMD are the routes around the chokepoint.
What cuts against it
Epoch's estimates carry 5th-95th percentile ranges of a third or more; cumulative shares move slowly by construction.
How it is measured
- derived metric
custom_silicon_share(formula in the semantic layer) - source Epoch AI chip sales · default tier 6 · CC BY 4.0
- proxy market_structure · cadence quarterly
Four quarters; under two points is inside Epoch's estimate ranges. Rising non-Nvidia share = the chip layer's rent dispersing.
Applied to metric:custom_silicon_share.
Derived rows (10)
| as of | dims | value | inputs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 33.8% | sources123+3 more | |
| 2026-03-31 | 32.8% | sources123+3 more | |
| 2025-12-31 | 33.0% | sources123+3 more | |
| 2025-09-30 | 32.9% | sources123+3 more | |
| 2025-06-30 | 32.0% | sources123+3 more | |
| 2025-03-31 | 30.9% | sources123+3 more | |
| 2024-12-31 | 29.6% | sources123+3 more | |
| 2024-09-30 | 27.1% | sources123+3 more | |
| 2024-06-30 | 23.6% | sources123+3 more | |
| 2024-03-31 | 19.1% | sources123+3 more |
Latest readings
Why this status, and its history
The share is now read only on quarters every designer has reported, as the designer-concentration index is: 32.8% at 31 Dec 2025, with all six reported. The earlier reason quoted 26% at the end of March 2026, a quarter only three of the six had reported, so the share appeared to fall seven points; among those three it fell less than half a point, and the full panel's March quarter is not yet known. Over the four quarters to December 2025 the full-panel share rose from 29.6% to 32.8%, which the direction rule reads as dispersing, but Epoch is the one source and not a primary one, so the two-source rule holds the status at emerging.
- 2026-09-23emerging to emergingconf 50 → 50 · Claude (model)
The share is now read only on quarters every designer has reported, as the designer-concentration index is: 32.8% at 31 Dec 2025, with all six reported. The earlier reason quoted 26% at the end of March 2026, a quarter only three of the six had reported, so the share appeared to fall seven points; among those three it fell less than half a point, and the full panel's March quarter is not yet known. Over the four quarters to December 2025 the full-panel share rose from 29.6% to 32.8%, which the direction rule reads as dispersing, but Epoch is the one source and not a primary one, so the two-source rule holds the status at emerging.
Weighed against it: Epoch's estimates carry wide ranges, and the newest full panel lags the newest partial one by up to three quarters, so the reading is already old when it lands.
- 2026-09-10unmeasured to emergingconf — → 50 · the evaluator (automatic)
Epoch's chip-sales estimates: non-Nvidia designers (Google TPU, AMD, Amazon, Huawei, Cambricon) held about a third of cumulative H100-equivalent compute shipped through 2025 and 26% at end-March 2026 as Nvidia's Blackwell ramp outpaced them, so the direction reads concentrating in the chip layer. Single tier-6 source with wide estimate ranges caps the status at emerging. Initial seed.
Why this confidence
Rests on 60 observations from Epoch AI chip sales; best evidence tier 6, grade C; current.
Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; 0–49 limited or vague evidence.
Predictions that lean on this
- Not happening