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Cloud segment operating margins

Operating income over revenue for AWS, Google Cloud and Microsoft Intelligent Cloud, per fiscal quarter, from 10-Q/10-K segment disclosures (derived metric segment_operating_margin). Headline slice is AWS.

Reason through this

The reading

Cloud margins have held through the capex wave so far; depreciation schedules do a lot of the holding.

Direction over the last 5 readingseach dot links to its record
amzn.aws · 24.2% · 2023-06-30 · measuredamzn.aws · 30.3% · 2023-09-30 · measuredamzn.aws · 37.6% · 2024-03-31 · measuredamzn.aws · 35.5% · 2024-06-30 · measuredamzn.aws · 38.1% · 2024-09-30 · measuredamzn.aws · 36.9% · 2024-12-31 · measuredamzn.aws · 39.5% · 2025-03-31 · measuredamzn.aws · 32.9% · 2025-06-30 · measuredamzn.aws · 34.6% · 2025-09-30 · measuredamzn.aws · 35.0% · 2025-12-31 · measuredamzn.aws · 37.7% · 2026-03-31 · measuredamzn.aws · 39.4% · 2026-06-30 · measuredamzn.aws · 38.7% · 2026-09-30 · measured
in the rule's windowearliermoves within ±2.0 pts read as stable, and a move counts only if more than half the steps go its way; this window moved +4.0 pts and 3 of 4 steps rose; higher reads concentrating
measured

13 readings drawn from the derived metric segment_operating_margin; 26 observations in the evidence.

Derived (segment_operating_margin) from: SEC EDGAR 10-Q/10-K XBRL instances (segment data). SEC EDGAR, inline XBRL filings (segment disclosures).

The numbers
as ofreadingvaluerecord
2026-09-30amzn.aws38.7%measured
2026-06-30amzn.aws39.4%measured
2026-03-31amzn.aws37.7%measured
2025-12-31amzn.aws35.0%measured
2025-09-30amzn.aws34.6%measured
2025-06-30amzn.aws32.9%measured
2025-03-31amzn.aws39.5%measured
2024-12-31amzn.aws36.9%measured
2024-09-30amzn.aws38.1%measured
2024-06-30amzn.aws35.5%measured
2024-03-31amzn.aws37.6%measured
2023-09-30amzn.aws30.3%measured
2023-06-30amzn.aws24.2%measured

Why it matters

Whether the cloud layer keeps its margin while capex explodes is the capex-to-revenue question in filed form; depreciation-life changes show up here first.

What cuts against it

Segment margins blend AI and non-AI workloads; useful-life extensions flatter them; Google Cloud's margin is on a much smaller base.

How it is measured
  • derived metric segment_operating_margin (formula in the semantic layer)
  • source SEC EDGAR 10-Q/10-K XBRL instances (segment data) · default tier 4 · Public domain (U.S. government); fair-access policy requires a descriptive User-Agent
  • proxy market_structure · cadence quarterly

Four fiscal quarters; two points of margin is noise. Rising cloud margin under rising capex means the layer is keeping surplus.

Applied to metric:segment_operating_margin.

Derived rows (13)
as ofdimsvalueinputs
2026-09-30amzn.aws38.7%sources12
2026-06-30amzn.aws39.4%sources12
2026-03-31amzn.aws37.7%sources12
2025-12-31amzn.aws35.0%sources123+5 more
2025-09-30amzn.aws34.6%sources12
2025-06-30amzn.aws32.9%sources12
2025-03-31amzn.aws39.5%sources12
2024-12-31amzn.aws36.9%sources123+5 more
2024-09-30amzn.aws38.1%sources12
2024-06-30amzn.aws35.5%sources12
2024-03-31amzn.aws37.6%sources12
2023-09-30amzn.aws30.3%sources12
2023-06-30amzn.aws24.2%sources12
Latest readings
  • 2026-09-30 · 38.7%as of 2026-09-30(2 obs)
  • 2026-06-30 · 39.4%as of 2026-06-30(2 obs)
  • 2026-03-31 · 37.7%as of 2026-03-31(2 obs)
  • 2025-12-31 · 35.0%as of 2025-12-31(8 obs)
  • 2025-09-30 · 34.6%as of 2025-09-30(2 obs)
  • 2025-06-30 · 32.9%as of 2025-06-30(2 obs)
Why this status, and its history

AWS's segment operating margin, now read with the fiscal fourth quarters that are filed only in the 10-K, rose in each of the last four quarters: 32.9% (Q2 2025), 34.6%, 35.0%, 37.7% and 39.4% (Q2 2026). That is above the two-point dead band and every step agrees, so it reads concentrating; the earlier stable reading compared quarters with the fourth ones missing.

  1. 2026-09-27stable to concentratingconf 75 → 75 · Claude (model)

    AWS's segment operating margin, now read with the fiscal fourth quarters that are filed only in the 10-K, rose in each of the last four quarters: 32.9% (Q2 2025), 34.6%, 35.0%, 37.7% and 39.4% (Q2 2026). That is above the two-point dead band and every step agrees, so it reads concentrating; the earlier stable reading compared quarters with the fourth ones missing.

    Weighed against it: Operating, not gross, margin; one filer's segment carries the reading, and AWS's rising margin may reflect its own depreciation schedule as much as AI demand.

    sources12
  2. 2026-09-10unmeasured to stableconf — → 75 · initial seed (model-drafted)

    AWS operating margin by fiscal quarter (10-Q/10-K segment disclosure): Mar 2025 39.5%, Jun 2025 32.9%, Sep 2025 34.6%, Mar 2026 37.7%, Jun 2026 39.4%. Within the two-point dead band over four quarters despite record capex; Google Cloud and Intelligent Cloud tracked alongside. Initial seed.

    sources12
Why this confidence

Rests on 26 observations from SEC EDGAR 10-Q/10-K XBRL instances (segment data); best evidence tier 4, grade A; current.

Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; 0–49 limited or vague evidence.

Predictions that lean on this