Concentration among covered cloud filers (HHI)

Herfindahl index of segment revenue between AWS, Google Cloud and Microsoft Intelligent Cloud, per calendar quarter, from filed segment disclosures. Derived metric hhi_by_layer, cloud slice.

Reason through this

The reading

Three filers, no neoclouds or Oracle; Intelligent Cloud bundles server products with Azure, which flatters Microsoft's share.

Direction over the last 5 readingseach dot links to its record

index

in the rule's windowearliermoves within ±0.020 index read as stable, and a move counts only if more than half the steps go its way; this window moved −0.018 index and 4 of 4 steps fell; higher reads concentrating

measured

11 readings drawn from the derived metric hhi_by_layer; 34 observations in the evidence.

Derived (hhi_by_layer) from: SEC EDGAR 10-Q/10-K XBRL instances (segment data). SEC EDGAR, inline XBRL filings (segment disclosures).

The numbers

as of	reading	value	record
2026-06-30	compute cloud	0.35 index	measured
2026-03-31	compute cloud	0.35 index	measured
2025-12-31	compute cloud	0.36 index	measured
2025-09-30	compute cloud	0.36 index	measured
2025-06-30	compute cloud	0.37 index	measured
2025-03-31	compute cloud	0.37 index	measured
2024-12-31	compute cloud	0.37 index	measured
2024-09-30	compute cloud	0.37 index	measured
2024-06-30	compute cloud	0.37 index	measured
2024-03-31	compute cloud	0.38 index	measured
2023-09-30	compute cloud	0.38 index	measured

Why it matters

Whether the cloud layer stays an oligopoly while labs and apps fragment is the P1 leading indicator of where capture flows next.

What cuts against it

Partial coverage overstates concentration; Microsoft's segment is not pure cloud; quarters where any filer's segment is missing are dropped.

How it is measured

derived metric hhi_by_layer (formula in the semantic layer)
source SEC EDGAR 10-Q/10-K XBRL instances (segment data) · default tier 4 · Public domain (U.S. government); fair-access policy requires a descriptive User-Agent
proxy market_structure · cadence quarterly

Four calendar quarters; a move under 200 HHI points is noise.

Applied to metric:hhi_by_layer.

Derived rows (11)

as of	dims	value	inputs
2026-06-30	compute_cloud	0.35 index	sources1 2 3+3 more
2026-03-31	compute_cloud	0.35 index	sources1 2 3
2025-12-31	compute_cloud	0.36 index	sources1 2 3+6 more
2025-09-30	compute_cloud	0.36 index	sources1 2 3
2025-06-30	compute_cloud	0.37 index	sources1 2 3+3 more
2025-03-31	compute_cloud	0.37 index	sources1 2 3
2024-12-31	compute_cloud	0.37 index	sources1 2 3+6 more
2024-09-30	compute_cloud	0.37 index	sources1 2 3
2024-06-30	compute_cloud	0.37 index	sources1 2 3+3 more
2024-03-31	compute_cloud	0.38 index	sources1 2 3
2023-09-30	compute_cloud	0.38 index	sources1 2 3

Latest readings

2026-06-30 · 0.35 indexas of 2026-06-30(6 obs)
2026-03-31 · 0.35 indexas of 2026-03-31(3 obs)
2025-12-31 · 0.36 indexas of 2025-12-31(9 obs)
2025-09-30 · 0.36 indexas of 2025-09-30(3 obs)
2025-06-30 · 0.37 indexas of 2025-06-30(6 obs)
2025-03-31 · 0.37 indexas of 2025-03-31(3 obs)

Why this status, and its history

With each filer's fiscal fourth quarter filled from the 10-K, the index across AWS, Google Cloud and Microsoft Intelligent Cloud eased from 0.367 (Q2 2025) to 0.349 (Q2 2026), a move of 1.8 points, inside the two-point dead band, so it reads stable rather than dispersing. The earlier reading rested on six quarters with gaps.

2026-09-27dispersing to stableconf 60 → 60 · Claude (model)
With each filer's fiscal fourth quarter filled from the 10-K, the index across AWS, Google Cloud and Microsoft Intelligent Cloud eased from 0.367 (Q2 2025) to 0.349 (Q2 2026), a move of 1.8 points, inside the two-point dead band, so it reads stable rather than dispersing. The earlier reading rested on six quarters with gaps.
Weighed against it: Oracle and the neoclouds are absent; Google Cloud's faster growth is what pulls the index down, and a slightly wider window would read dispersing.
sources1 2 3 4 5 6
2026-09-10unmeasured to dispersingconf — → 60 · the evaluator (automatic)
HHI across AWS, Google Cloud and Microsoft Intelligent Cloud segment revenue: 0.37 (Sep 2024) to 0.354 (Mar 2026), falling by more than the 200-point dead band over four quarters as Google Cloud grows fastest. Dispersing within the covered hyperscalers; Oracle and the neoclouds are outside the index, which would push it lower still. Intelligent Cloud bundles server products with Azure. Initial seed.
sources1 2 3

Why this confidence

Rests on 34 observations from SEC EDGAR 10-Q/10-K XBRL instances (segment data); best evidence tier 4, grade A; current.

Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; 0–49 limited or vague evidence.