Concentration among covered cloud filers (HHI)

dispersing60/95leading

1What this measures

Herfindahl index of segment revenue between AWS, Google Cloud and Microsoft Intelligent Cloud, per calendar quarter, from filed segment disclosures. Derived metric hhi_by_layer, cloud slice.

Why it matters. Whether the cloud layer stays an oligopoly while labs and apps fragment is the P1 leading indicator of where capture flows next.

Proxy types: market_structure
Unit: index
Cadence: quarterly

2How we track this

derived metric hhi_by_layer (formula in the semantic layer)

Direction over 4 periods, dead-band 0.02 index; higher = concentrating.

Four calendar quarters; a move under 200 HHI points is noise.

Applied to metric:hhi_by_layer.

3Tracker interpretation

Three filers, no neoclouds or Oracle; Intelligent Cloud bundles server products with Azure, which flatters Microsoft's share.

4Evidence

Direction over the last 4 periods; the band is ±0.02 index around the window's first point. Higher reads concentrating.

Latest point

0.35 indexas of 2026-03-31(3 obs)

Value the bands apply to

0.35 indexas of 2026-03-31(3 obs)

18 observations. Hollow points are disputed (see counterevidence). Every point links to its observation.

Derived rows (6)

as of	dims	value	inputs
2026-03-31	compute_cloud	0.35 index	obs:01a2687f obs:5b994889 obs:a26cee82
2025-09-30	compute_cloud	0.36 index	obs:0c0a639d obs:4ed8ddca obs:d575d683
2025-03-31	compute_cloud	0.37 index	obs:2f2dda9d obs:5023e66b obs:d71a32c4
2024-09-30	compute_cloud	0.37 index	obs:78e3a8bb obs:7a234cd5 obs:e4f122d1
2024-03-31	compute_cloud	0.38 index	obs:5630e062 obs:e8369d0c obs:ffce6f16
2023-09-30	compute_cloud	0.38 index	obs:12d2979e obs:295fd031 obs:fdddee57

5Status and reasoning

dispersingsince 2026-09-10 · evaluate

HHI across AWS, Google Cloud and Microsoft Intelligent Cloud segment revenue: 0.37 (Sep 2024) to 0.354 (Mar 2026), falling by more than the 200-point dead band over four quarters as Google Cloud grows fastest. Dispersing within the covered hyperscalers; Oracle and the neoclouds are outside the index, which would push it lower still. Intelligent Cloud bundles server products with Azure. Initial seed.

6Timeline notes

2026-03-31 · 0.35 indexas of 2026-03-31(3 obs)
2025-09-30 · 0.36 indexas of 2025-09-30(3 obs)
2025-03-31 · 0.37 indexas of 2025-03-31(3 obs)
2024-09-30 · 0.37 indexas of 2024-09-30(3 obs)
2024-03-31 · 0.38 indexas of 2024-03-31(3 obs)
2023-09-30 · 0.38 indexas of 2023-09-30(3 obs)

7Counterevidence

What cuts against this reading

Partial coverage overstates concentration; Microsoft's segment is not pure cloud; quarters where any filer's segment is missing are dropped.

8Update history

2026-09-10unmeasured to dispersingconf — → 60 · evaluate
HHI across AWS, Google Cloud and Microsoft Intelligent Cloud segment revenue: 0.37 (Sep 2024) to 0.354 (Mar 2026), falling by more than the 200-point dead band over four quarters as Google Cloud grows fastest. Dispersing within the covered hyperscalers; Oracle and the neoclouds are outside the index, which would push it lower still. Intelligent Cloud bundles server products with Azure. Initial seed.
obs:01a2687f obs:5b994889 obs:a26cee82

9Confidence

60 / 95 — mixed or hard to operationalise

Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; below 50 limited or vague.

10Related

Cloud segment operating margins stable
Cloud backlog (remaining performance obligations) concentrating